weekly brief - atlaspolitico.com.bratlaspolitico.com.br/downloads/relatorio aib 112317.pdf · 4 5...

atlas intelligence unit

WEEKLY BRIEF - Nov. 2017Big Data Social Network Analysis

EX

EC

UTIV

E S

UM

MA

RY

➢ Right-wing political engagement dominated the week, mostly as a result of posts by or related to Jair Bolsonaro, who performed 45% better than his 100-day average. Right-wing activity in social media surpassed left-wing activity on all key dimensions.

➢ With approx. 25,000 new followers each week, Jair Bolsonaro is continuing to expand his social media reach much faster than any other presidential contender.

➢ For the first time in our time-series, total positive engagements for Jair Bolsonaro exceeded positive engagements for Lula.

➢ FHC’s denounciation of Bolsonaro’s presidential run was the most discussed political topics of the week. Bolsonaro managed to capitalize on FHC’s statements, energizing his base and gaining new followers.

➢ The reform of the retirement system remains highly unpopular, with aprox. 75% of negative social media engagement on the issue, highlighting a challenging electoral environment for its approval in Congress. Left-wing pages dominated the debate on retirement reform.

➢ Lula’s social media performance is in line with his recent performance; Álvaro Dias, Ciro Gomes, Geraldo Alckmin and Luciano Huck performed well; Marina Silva and João Doria performed poorly.

20

40 60

80

Total political engagement intensity

Ideological thermometer

Topics of the week

Candidate strength in social media

FHC DENOUNCES BOLSONARO

RETIREMENT REFORM

Right Left

Absolute Relative

50/50 25/7575/25

Weak Strong

B

L

HD

AMC B

A

C

G

H

M

D

L

A- Álvaro Dias

B- Bolsonaro

C- Ciro Gomes

D- João Doria

G- Geraldo Alckmin

H- Luciano Huck

L- Lula

M- Marina Silva

This week

Last week

HIG

HLI

GH

TS

TER

MS

Total political engagement intensity: average percentile rank of last 7 days vs. last 90 days

Ideological thermometer: share of left-wing vs. right-wing political engagement

Absolute candidate strength: share of positive engagement

Relative strength: weekly deviation from 90-day average (engagement+follower growth)

G

GLOSSARY OF KEY INDICATORS

ENGAGED USERS

TOTAL ENGAGEMENT

ENGAGEMENT INTENSITY

POSITIVE / NEGATIVE ENGAGEMENT

RIGHT-WING

LEFT-WING

FOLLOWER GROWTH

Users that reacted, shared, or commented the posts of a particular Facebook page or posts on a specific topic

The total number of likes, reactions, and shares for the posts of a particular Facebook page divided by the total number of followers of that page

The absolute growth in the number of followers for a Facebook page

The total number of likes, reactions, and shares on the posts of a specific page or those related to a topic or politician

The share of positive or negative engagement relative to the sum of positive and negative engagement, defined as LRS

Facebook pages with more than 100k followers that support one or more of the following individuals, parties, or movements: Geraldo Alckmin, João Doria, Jair Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Michel Temer, Sérgio Moro, PSDB, DEM, NOVO 30, MBL, ILISP, Vem pra Rua, Escola sem Partido

Facebook pages with more than 100k followers that support one or more of the following individuals, parties, or movements: Lula da Silva, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, PT, PCdoB, PSOL, REDE, Quebrando o Tabu, MST, MTST, UNE, CUT

1

3. SOCIAL MEDIA TRENDS

Political engagement among both the right-wing and the left-wing grew during the

second half of November, driven by mainstream media denunciations of Jair Bolsonaro

Atlas Político Intelligence Unit. This proprietary content and analysis is only available

to paid subscribers and distribution without prior written consent is strictly forbidden.

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

NO

V 2

017

TIM

E-S

ER

IES O

F SO

CIA

L EN

GA

GEM

EN

T

LEFT-WING VS. RIGHT-WING SOCIAL MEDIA ENGAGEMENT

Both right-wing and left-wing engagement grew

markedly after November 15th pushed by two

main developments: attacks against the

candidacy of Jair Bolsonaro that were publicized

by major media outlets and the polemic

regarding the proposed reform of the retirement

system.

TOTAL ENGAGEMENT

FOLLOWER GROWTH

Right

Left

Left

Right

2


The top 5 most debated figures in social media were Lula, Jair Bolsonaro, Temer, Dilma,

and FHC. Bolonaro attracted a much higher share of positive engagement.

Lula

Temer

Dilma

Positiveengagement

Total engagement

1,100,266

899,092

224,696

46%

Jair Bolsonaro

663,155

89%



44%

4%

FHC 147,093 23%

TOP POLITICAL FIGURES

➢ Lula, Jair Bolsonaro and Temer remain

the leaders…

… but Bolsonaro has way more positive

mentions.

➢ Dilma and FHC drew engagement due to

attacks.

➢ FHC in particular was attacked due to his

denunciation of Bolsonaro’s presidential

candidacy.

3


These were the 30 most debated Brazilian politicians. Luciano Huck, Marina Silva and

Geraldo Alckmin score extremely poorly relative to Lula or Bolsonaro.

1100266

899092

663155

378470

224696

147093

136881

88996

88547

63700

61517

57687

51851

50067

46948

39716

36733

26043

23467

23120

22877

21394

20257

17642

17172

16553

15880

14621

14175

12541

Lula

Jair Bolsonaro

Temer

Doria

Dilma

FHC

Aécio

José Dirceu

Sergio Moro

Álvaro Dias

Magno Malta

Luciano Huck

Ciro Gomes

Sérgio Cabral

Kim Kataguiri

Lindbergh

Manuela D'Ávila

Alckmin

Jorge Picciani

Gleisi

Felipe Picciani

Fernando Holiday

Molon

Freixo

Renan Calheiros

Romário

Crivella

Marina Silva

Haddad

Joaquim Barbosa

TOP 30 POLITICIANS

4


Jair Bolsonaro’s recent growth in terms of positive social media mentions puts him

almost on par with Lula and marginalizes other contenders in the 2018 race.



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

Ciro Gomes

Chico Alencar

João Amoedo

Marina Silva

Alvaro Dias

Luciano Huck

Alckmin

Doria

Bolsonaro

Lula

NO

V 2

016

-N

OV

2017

TIM

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ER

IES

RELATIV

E S

HA

RE O

F PO

SIT

IVE S

OC

IAL

MED

IA M

EN

TIO

NS

SHARE OF SOCIAL MEDIA ENGAGEMENT FOR KEY CANDIDATES

Lula and Jair Bolsonaro have almost equal

shares of mentions in Brazilian social

media and, together, occupy about 80% of

the political debate related to presidential

candidates. This indicates clear

challenges for all the other contenders

going forward.

LULA

DORIA

BOLSONARO13

2

60

73

8

4

44

7

40

62

10

22

59

12

2117

77

63

14

9

9

66

14

11

7

8

81

61

22

10

70

13

6

51

27

10

42

42

6

NO

V 1

5-2

2

RELATIV

E S

HA

RE O

F EN

GA

GEM

EN

T


Jair Bolsonaro maintains a clear lead in Brazilian social media relative to the other

candidates.



OVERALL SOCIAL MEDIA STRENGTH FOR KEY CANDIDATES

Lula

Luciano Huck

Alvaro Dias

Jair Bolsonaro

Geraldo Alckmin

João Doria

Marina Silva

Ciro Gomes

77.3

45.5

44

23.2

23.1

21.9

15.8

14.4

NO

V 1

5-2

2 2

017

SO

CIA

L M

ED

IA S

TR

EN

GTH

IN

DEX

The Social Media Strength Index is scored

on a 0-100 scale. It represents the average

score of each candidate across four key

social media dimensions: LSR engagement

(likes, shares, and reactions on posts

mentioning that politician); popularity (the

% of positive user engagement); total

follower base; and follower growth.

5

11%

9%

-15%

11%

-23%

5%

1%

46%

SCORE

(ABSOLUTE)

SCORE

(VS. 90-DAY AVERAGE)

6


Current performance of eight presidential contenders on four social media variables

relative to poll results



DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL MEDIA PERFORMANCE

Social media

popularity

vv

vv

vv

Social media

popularity

Social media

popularity

Social media

popularity

Social media

popularity

Social media

popularitySocial media

popularity

Social media

popularity

Follower

Growth

Follower

Growth

Follower

Growth

Follower

Growth

Follower

Growth

Follower

Growth

Follower

Growth

Follower

Growth

Follower

GrowthFollowers

Followers

Followers

Followers

Followers

Followers

Followers

Followers

Lula Bolsonaro Marina Ciro

AlvaroHuckDoriaAlckmin

NO

V 1

5-2

2 2

017

SO

CIA

L M

ED

IA S

TR

EN

GTH

IN

DEX

CO

MPO

NEN

TS

7


These are the topics that generated most political debate. The right-wing dominated the

debate around corruption; the left-wing dominates the debate on retirement reform



KEY TOPICS

Corruption remains the most

debated political topic in social

media and the right-wing

dominates the discussion.

The left-wing heavily dominates the

discussion around retirement reform.

Racism re-appeared in public

debate in the aftermath of

revelations about Globo

News anchor William Waack.

100k

Ideology LRS benchmark

8


The most popular right-wing posts tend to be written by or dedicated to Jair Bolsonaro.

They are very concise, written in the style of Tweets.



- Revista ISTOÉ sai do armário e calunia Jair Bolsonaro.

- Ao Sistema não interessa um presidente honesto.

1.9M Views

94K Likes 9.7K Comments 66K Shares

29K Likes

425 Comments

28K Shares

Sobre mais um ataque a Jair Messias Bolsonaro.

Espie a simplicidade e força desse homem, Nelson

Previdente

1.5M Views


- Hoje às 20hs no Alianz Park.

- Palmeiras X Sport Recife.

- Estarei lá na torcida pelo melhor do futebol.

54K Likes 7.7K Comments 3.8K Shares

21

4

3

- As mulheres gaúchas estão com Bolsonaro.

- Obrigado Rio Grande do Sul.

306K Views

41K Likes 1.7K Comments 8.9K Shares

Jair Bolsonaro’s post writing style on

Facebook is characterized by extremely

short, concise messages, organized with

bullet marks. It is thus strikingly familiar to

the style used by the alt-right and Donald

Trump in the United States.

NO

V 1

5-2

2

TOP 5

PO

STS IN

RIG

HT-W

ING

PA

GES

5

TOP RIGHT WING POSTS

https://www.facebook.com/jairmessias.bolsonaro/?fref=mentions

https://www.facebook.com/people/Nelson-Previdente/100009375951247?fref=mentions

9


The most popular left-wing posts were either on the proposed reform on the retirement

system or on social values (discrimination, women’s rights, etc.)



Taís Araújo sobre preconceito e o que ela tem aprendido

sobre isso ao criar seus filhos.

4.1M Views


NO

V 1

5-2

2

TOP 5

PO

STS IN

LEFT

-WIN

G P

AG

ES

1

Mais uma da série: que pena

que precisa, mas já precisa,

que bom que tem.

57K Likes

678 Comments

15K Shares

2

Os mesmos pilantras que querem acabar com a nossa

Aposentadoria recebem valores absurdos por mês. Que

moral esses caras têm pra querer fazer alguma

Reforma?!


3

4 5

Nunca entenderei.


O Michel Temer tá achando que a gente é palhaço! Vai

gastar R$ 20 milhões pra dizer que "não tem dinheiro" pra

pagar nossa Aposentadoria. Só pode ser brincadeira

desse canalha!


TOP LEFT-WING POSTS

Todos contra o fim da aposentadoria is a

left-wing page that actively campaigns

against the reform of the retirement

system. Although it only has about a half-

million followers, it posted two of the Top 5

left-wing posts ranked by our algorithms.

https://www.facebook.com/MichelTemer/?fref=mentions

10


The most shared news on retirement reform have focused on the idea that it is not

actually necessary and that it is being championed by a corrupt government



7.3K Reforma da Previdência: governo Temer não dialoga com o povo, faz chantagem

https://blogdosakamoto.blogosfera.uol.com.br/2017/11/15/reforma-da-previdencia-governo-temer-nao-dialoga-com-o-povo-faz-chantagem/

6.6K Temer lança campanha de R$ 20 mi para defender reforma da Previdência

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2017/11/1935905-temer-lanca-campanha-de-r-20-mi-para-defender-reforma-da-previdencia.shtml

3K Temer vai comprar votos pela Reforma da Previdência com cargos

https://falandoverdades.com.br/temer-vai-comprar-votos-pela-reforma-da-previdencia-com-cargos/

2.8K Câmara é multada em R$ 26 milhões por retiradas daPrevidência para ressarcir plano parlamentar

http://m.congressoemfoco.uol.com.br/noticias/camara-e-multada-em-r-26-milhoes-por-retiradas-da-previdencia-para-ressarcir-plano-parlamentar/

2.6K CUT-VOX: 85% são contra a reforma da Previdência de Temer

http://www.pt.org.br/cut-vox-85-sao-contra-a-reforma-da-previdencia-de-temer/

71.4K Relatório final da CPI da Previdência afirma que deficit não existe

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2017/10/1929445-relatorio-final-da-cpi-da-previdencia-afirma-que-deficit-nao-existe.shtml

68.2K Relator conclui que Previdência não tem déficit - Economia - Estadão

http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,parecer-de-senador-do-pmdb-diz-que-nao-existe-deficit-na-previdencia,70002057146

28.9K Novo vazamento global revela offshores de Henrique Meirelles no Caribe

https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/bbc/2017/11/05/novo-vazamento-global-revela-offshores-de-henrique-meirelles-no-caribe.htm

28.3K Temer pede apoio da população para aprovar reforma da Previdência

https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-brasil/2017/11/07/em-video-no-twitter-temer-pede-apoio-da-populacao-para-reforma-da-previdencia.htm

19.2K CPI da Previdência aponta que governo apresentou "um futuro aterrorizante e totalmente inverossímil”

http://paranaportal.uol.com.br/geral/426-empresas-privadas-devem-previdencia/

3. RETIREMENT REFORM

MOST SHARED LINKS ON RETIREMENT REFORM (last 30 days)

MOST SHARED LINKS ON RETIREMENT REFORM (last 7 days)

RETIREMENT REFORM IN SOCIAL MEDIA

71%

NEGATIVE POST

ENGAGMENT

29%

POSITIVE POST

ENGAGEMENT

NOV 15-22ENGAGEMENT ON POSTS RELATED TO RETIREMENT REFORM

In more depth...

11


The pages eliciting the greatest engagement were Quebrando o Tabu and Movimento

Brasil Livre

MBL - Movimento Brasil Livre1,207,809 LRS

O Antagonista727,496 LRS

Jair Messias Bolsonaro574,703 LRS

Joice Hasselman460,997 LRS

Socialista de iPhone408,505 LRS

1

2

3

4

5

Folha Política289,235 LRS

Bolsonaro Opressor 2.0246,255 LRS

Caneta Desesquerdizadora236,667 LRS

Pastor Marco Feliciano230,265 LRS

Movimento contra Corrupção222,578 LRS

Quebrado o Tabu2,204,139 LRS

Todos contra o fim da aposentadoria

546,096 LRS

Conversa Afiada Oficial260,289 LRS

Lula245,992 LRS

Brasil 247240,203 LRS

Diário do Centro do Mundo197,026 LRS

Mídia Ninja177,347 LRS

Tico Santa Cruz173,956 LRS

Gleisi Hoffmann155,938 LRS

Lindbergh Farias152,251 LRS

6

7

8

9

10

Quebrando o Tabu and MBL-Movimento Brasil

Livre continue to lead in terms of left-wing and

right-wing political engagement, although their

impact was somewhat lower than in our previous

report. The pages that improved the most in our

ranking are Todos contra o fim da aposentadoria

and O Antagonista.

NO

V 1

5-2

2

RA

NKIN

G O

F PA

GES IN

TER

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F U

SER

EN

GA

GEM

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LEFT-WING PAGES RIGHT-WING PAGES


12


Jair Bolsonaro’s page continues to grow extremely fast, adding more than 20k new

followers every week

Jair Messias Bolsonaro+25,058 followers

NOVO 30+11,154 followers

Juventude contra a corrupção+9,510 followers

Ranking dos políticos+7,455 followers

Alexandre Borges+7,009 followers

1

2

3

4

5

Joice Hasselmann+5,769 followers

Movimento contra Corrupção+5,230 followers

MBL-Movimento Brasil Livre+3,971 followers

Alexandre Frota+3,794 followers LRSCMarco Antônio Villa

+3,449 followers

Quebrado o Tabu+19,827 followers

Gleisi Hoffmann+12,228 followers

The Intercept Brasil+6,711 followers

Jovens de Esquerda+4,121 followers

Lula+3,202 followers

Brasil sem Màscara+2,578 followers

Humberto Costa+2,545 followers

Lula Presidento+2,497 followers

Manuela D’Ávila+2,155 followers

Conversa Afiada Oficial+2,152 followers

6

7

8

9

10

Jair Messias Bolsonaro continues to be the

fastest growing page related to Brazilian

politics on Facebook. Jair Bolsonaro has

54% more followers than Lula and his

page is growing eight times faster. Follower

growth for MBL has slowed significantly.

João Doria’s page experienced negative

growth during the period analyzed here.

NO

V 1

5-2

2

RA

NKIN

G O

F PA

GES IN

TER

MS O

F FO

LLO

WER

GR

OW

TH



LEFT-WING PAGES RIGHT-WING PAGES


13Social media performance for Lula is stable, indicating limited potential for major

upside or downside impact on voter intentions.



Engagement1.1m

Engagement popularity46%

Page followers3.1m

Page follower growth3,202

POLITICAL CANDIDATES IN SOCIAL MEDIA

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

31

-Oct

1-N

ov

2-N

ov

3-N

ov

4-N

ov

5-N

ov

6-N

ov

7-N

ov

8-N

ov

9-N

ov

10

-No

v

11

-No

v

12

-No

v

13

-No

v

14

-No

v

15

-No

v

16

-No

v

17

-No

v

18

-No

v

19

-No

v

20

-No

v

21

-No

v

NO

V 2

017

TIM

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OR

LU

LA

POSITIVE ENGAGEMENT (%)

ENGAGEMENT DENSITYLula polarizes the political debate, constantly

attracting a massive number of both positive and

negative reactions. His popularity levels on social

media have hovered around 50%, with no clear

indication of either an upward or downward trend.

Current social media patterns indicate that

current levels of electoral support for Lula are

likely to remain stable.

Follower

GrowthFollowers

LulaSocial media

popularity

14Bolsonaro is hugely popular among a large and rapidly growing fan base. He will likely

continue to convert social media popularity into further vote share gains.



1. POLITICAL CANDIDATES IN SOCIAL MEDIA

Engagement899k


Page followers4.8m

Page follower growth25,058

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

31

-Oct

1-N

ov

2-N

ov

3-N

ov

4-N

ov

5-N

ov

6-N

ov

7-N

ov

8-N

ov

9-N

ov

10

-No

v

11

-No

v

12

-No

v

13

-No

v

14

-No

v

15

-No

v

16

-No

v

17

-No

v

18

-No

v

19

-No

v

20

-No

v

21

-No

v

NO

V 2

017

TIM

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OR

BO

LSO

NA

RO


ENGAGEMENT DENSITYBolsonaro stands out in terms of the overall

engagement, the share of positive engagement,

and follower growth. Although opinion polls (e.g.

Ipsos) have reported high and rising levels of

voter disapproval in regards to Bolsonaro, approx.

90% of the user engagement in relationship to his

figure was positive in our studied timeframe.

Bolsonaro’s social media strength will likely

conduce to further gains in future polls.

Follower

GrowthFollowers

BolsonaroSocial media

popularity

15


Marina remains very popular among a limited and narrowing electoral niche and fails to

generate virtually any discussion on social media




Engagement10k


Page followers2.3m

Page follower growth-1,029

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0

100,000

10

/31

/20

17

11

/1/2

01

7

11

/2/2

01

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/3/2

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OR

MA

RIN

A


ENGAGEMENT DENSITYMarina Silva’s social media performance is

mixed: she maintains popularity among a post-

materialist niche but appears to be unable to

expand her audience. Poor levels of user

engagement and a declining follower base

indicate that Marina currently falls outside of the

central political debates taking place in social

media. Her negative opinion poll trend is likely to

continue under current circumstances.

Follower

GrowthFollowers

MarinaSocial media

popularity

tax

16




Engagement378k


Page followers2.7m

Page follower growth-1,861


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0

100,000

10

/31

/20

17

11

/1/2

01

7

11

/2/2

01

7

11

/3/2

01

7

11

/4/2

01

7

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01

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RIA


ENGAGEMENT DENSITYDoria has become one of the main target of left-

wing social media attacks, alongside president

Michel Temer. At the same time, he is also being

attacked by certain right-wing pages that accuse

him of having adopted leftist stances (rising

taxes, for example). As a result, Doria has become

increasingly isolated and is attempting to use his

everyday work as mayor to improve his image,

with little success so far.

Once a champion of popularity in social media, Doria is currently struggling in terms of

his image. He is the least popular presidential contender and is losing followers fast.

Social media

popularity

Follower

GrowthFollowers

Doria

17





Engagement26k


Page followers880k

Page follower growth+241

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

10

/31

/20

17

11

/1/2

01

7

11

/2/2

01

7

11

/3/2

01

7

11

/4/2

01

7

11

/5/2

01

7

11

/6/2

01

7

11

/7/2

01

7

11

/8/2

01

7

11

/9/2

01

7

11

/10

/20

17

11

/11

/20

17

11

/12

/20

17

11

/13

/20

17

11

/14

/20

17

11

/15

/20

17

11

/16

/20

17

11

/17

/20

17

11

/18

/20

17

11

/19

/20

17

11

/20

/20

17

11

/21

/20

17

Alckmin has been extremely absent from political debates carried on in social media,

much like Marina Silva

NO

V 2

017

TIM

E-S

ER

IES O

F SO

CIA

L EN

GA

GEM

EN

T F

OR

ALC

KM

IN


ENGAGEMENT DENSITYAlckmin appears to be in a phase of recovering

popularity, though drawing a definitive conclusion

is complicated by his feeble presence in social

media and in general. In his new role as president

of the PSDB, Alckmin is likely to generate much

more attention and engagement and it remains to

be seen whether he will be able to leverage this

position to improve his standing.

Follower

GrowthFollowers

AlckminSocial media

popularity

[email protected]

+55 (21) 9901 00017

This brief highlights one of the six key areas of work for Atlas Intelligence Unit, Atlas Político’s hub for proprietary quantitative research

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So

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Ph.D. in Government, HarvardFormer associate, McKinsey & CompanyFormer sovereign risk analyst, Goldman Sachs

[email protected]

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