Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update

1 December 2011The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues Heavy rainfall this week has damaged crops and reduced grain quality in areas of

New South Wales and has delayed harvest in Victoria. Only light rainfall is forecast across winter cropping areas over the coming week which

should allow harvests to proceed in many areas. Rainfall forecast across southern Queensland over the coming week should provide

favourable soil moisture for summer crop sowing. Late season rain across New South Wales is likely to increase the presence of weeds,

such as fleabane. Early control with herbicides will reduce potential impacts. Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 645

gigalitres to approximately 89 per cent of total capacity. Water allocations in the Murrumbidgee valley increased this week to 100 per cent of

entitlement for both high security and general security water users. Avocado and navel orange wholesale prices were higher in the week ending

26 November 2011, but banana, bean, broccoli, pumpkin, rockmelon and tomato prices were lower.

The world wheat indicator price (US hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$280 a tonne in the week ending 29 November 2011, compared with US$288 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$261 a tonne in the week ending 30 November 2011, compared with US$264 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (rapeseed, Europe, cif Hamburg) averaged US$566 a tonne in the week ending 24 November 2011, compared with US$603 a tonne in the previous week.

The Eastern Market Indicator price for wool increased by 2 cents in the week ending 24 November 2011 to 1192 cents a kilogram clean.

Saleyard lamb prices generally rose in the week ending 25 November 2011. Prices increased between 2 per cent and 5 per cent in all states except Victoria.

Saleyard sheep prices rose across Australia in the week ending 25 November 2011, as saleyard sheep throughput remained seasonally low.

For more information or to subscribe, email ClimateUpdate@daff.gov.au

1. Climate1.1. Notable events For the week ending 30 November 2011, rainfall was mostly recorded in eastern Australia. The highest

measured total for the week was 354 millimetres at Tully in Far North Queensland. Heavy rainfall over northern New South Wales has damaged crops and reduced grain quality. Crops in

the Young and Wagga Wagga districts have also reportedly been damaged due to heavy rainfall, with many crops expected to be downgraded.

The Victorian grain harvest has been delayed due to widespread rain and thunderstorms. Only light rainfall is forecast across winter cropping areas in the coming week which should allow

harvests to proceed in many areas. Rainfall forecast across southern Queensland over the coming week should provide favourable soil

moisture for summer crop sowing. Late season rain across New South Wales is likely to increase the presence of weeds, such as fleabane.

Early control with herbicides will reduce potential impacts.

1.2. Rainfall this weekFor the week ending 30 November 2011, most rainfall was received in eastern Australia. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml .

Rainfall for the week ending 30 November 2011

2

1.3. Temperature anomalies this weekSpatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 November 2011

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 November 2011

3

4

1.4. Rainfall outlookThe rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 1 to 8 December 2011

5

2. Water2.1. Water availability Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 645 gigalitres (GL) to

approximately 89 per cent of total capacity. This is 9 percentage points or 2042 GL more than this time last year.

Water allocations in the Murrumbidgee valley increased this week to 100 per cent of entitlement for both high security and general security water users.

2.2. Water storagesChanges in regional water storage for November 2011 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graphs below (current at 1 December 2011).

Region

Total capacity

(GL)

Current volume

(GL)

Current volume

(%)

Monthly change

(GL)

Monthly change

(%)

Annual change

(GL)

Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) 22557 20042 89 +367 +2 +2042

Snowy Scheme 5744 3001 52 +123 +2 +1025

Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) 9352 7885 82 -18 0 +669

Queensland MDB 186 178 96 -1 -1 -7

Central Queensland 3154 2769 88 -130 -4 -261

South-east Queensland 3517 3256 93 -64 -2 +258

New South Wales MDB 13884 12470 90 +348 +3 +283

Coastal New South Wales 1074 1067 99 +20 +2 +197

Victoria MDB 8488 7394 87 +20 0 +1767

6

Water storages in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria

The blue line indicates the extent of the Murray–Darling Basin and the shaded areas denote the coverage of the individual reporting regions.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 1 December 2011 is shown above. The green line indicates the storage level at the same time last year. The orange line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

7

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin by state (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

8

2.3. Water allocationsThe current water allocations for the 2011–12 water trading season and changes over the last month for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.

Allocations at 15 November 2011 (%)

Allocations at 1 December 2011 (%)

NSW Murray ValleyHigh security 100 100General security 100* 100*

NSW Murrumbidgee ValleyHigh security 95 100General security 69* 100*

NSW Lower DarlingHigh security 100 100General security 100* 100*

NSW Macquarie ValleyHigh security 100 100General security 32* 32*

NSW Hunter ValleyHigh security 100 100General security 100 100

NSW Lachlan ValleyHigh security 100 100General security 0* 0*

NSW Border RiversHigh security 100 100General security 100 100

NSW Peel ValleyHigh security 100 100General security 100 100

Victoria Murray ValleyHigh reliability 100 100

Victoria GoulburnHigh reliability 100 100

Victoria CampaspeHigh reliability 100 100Low reliability 100 100

Victoria LoddonHigh reliability 100 100

Victoria BullarookHigh reliability 100 100Low reliability 100 100

Victoria BrokenHigh reliability 100 100Low Reliability 40 40

South Australia Murray ValleyHigh security 100 100

*Carryover water may also be available.

9

3. Commodities3.1. Production and commodities Avocado and navel orange wholesale prices were higher in the week ending 26 November 2011, but

banana and rockmelon prices were lower. Banana wholesale prices are now lower than before Cyclone Yasi crossed the north Queensland coast in early February 2011 and continue to follow a time path similar to that in the aftermath of Cyclone Larry in 2006 (figure A).

Bean, broccoli, pumpkin and tomato wholesale prices were lower in the week ending 26 November 2011, but most other vegetable prices were steady. Wholesale prices of round, stringless beans declined markedly in the week.

The world wheat indicator price (US hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$280 a tonne in the week ending 29 November 2011, compared with US$288 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$261 a tonne in the week ending 30 November 2011, compared with US$264 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (rapeseed, Europe, cif Hamburg) averaged US$566 a tonne in the week ending 24 November 2011, compared with US$603 a tonne in the previous week.

The world indicator price for cotton (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US99.3 cents a pound in the week ending 30 November 2011, the first time the weekly cotton indicator price has fallen below US100 cents a pound since September 2010.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US23.2 cents a pound in the week ending 30 November 2011, US0.5 cents a pound lower than the previous week.

The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) price for wool increased by 2 cents in the week ending 24 November 2011 to 1192 cents a kilogram clean. The number of bales offered at auction was around 0.5 per cent higher than the previous week.

Saleyard lamb prices generally rose in the week ending 25 November 2011. In South Australia and New South Wales, prices increased by 2 per cent to average 487 cents a kilogram and 522 cents a kilogram, respectively. In Western Australia, prices averaged 3 per cent higher at 484 cents a kilogram, while in Tasmania prices increased by 5 per cent to 550 cents a kilogram. In Victoria, increased saleyard throughput resulted in a 4 per cent decline in prices to 459 cents a kilogram.

Saleyard sheep prices rose across Australia in the week ending 25 November 2011, as saleyard sheep throughput remained seasonally low. In Western Australia, prices increased by 10 per cent to 396 cents a kilogram. In Victoria, prices averaged 8 per cent higher at 342 cents a kilogram, while prices in New South Wales rose by 6 per cent to 355 cents a kilogram. In South Australia, prices increased by 5 per cent to 280 cents a kilogram.

Figure A: Banana (Cavendish) prices, Melbourne wholesale market, 2006 and 2011

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2006 (Cyclone Larry crossed the coast on 20 March 2006)

2011 (Cyclone Yasi crossed the coast on 3 February 2011)

$/carton

10

3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable pricesWeekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

banana, cavendish pineapple, smoothleaf

watermelon, seedless rockmelon

Index04 Dec 10=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

orange, navel peach, white

apple, royal gala avocado, hass

Index04 Dec 10=100

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

onion, brown caulif lower

potato, white, washed tomato, f ield gourmet

Index04 Dec 10=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

broccoli lettuce, iceberg

pumpkin, grey bean, round, stringless

Index04 Dec 10=100

3.3. Selected world indicator prices

50

100

150

200

250

300

World Cottonindicator price

(US cents)week ended 30th November 2011

2009 2010 2011

USc/lb

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Australian exchange rate(US dollars)

week ending 1st December 2011

2009 2010 2011

US$/A$

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

World Sugarindicator price

(US cents)week ended 30th November 2011

2009 2010 2011

U

USc/lb

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Eastern Market Indicator wool priceAustralian cents

week ended 24th November 2011

2009 2010 2011

Ac/kg clean

11

3.4. Crop indicator prices

300

400

500

600

700

A$/t

Canola priceweek ended 28th November 2011

Portland, Victoria

2009 2010 2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

A$/t

Feed barley priceweek ended 29th November 2011

Sydney, NSW

2009 2010 2011

150

200

250

300

A$/t

Grain sorghum priceweek ended 29th November 2011

Sydney, NSW

2009 2010 2011

150

200

250

300

350

A$/t

Feed wheat price (GP) week ended 29th November 2011

Sydney, NSW

2009 2010 2011

3.5. Livestock indicator prices

300

325

350

375

400

425

Young cattle indicator price(330-400 kg live weight C3)

week ended 25th November 2011QLD

2009 2010 2011

c/kg dressed weight

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mutton indicator price(18-24 kg fat score 2-3)

week ended 25th November 2011Weighted Average Saleyard Price - Victoria

2009 2010 2011

c/kg dressed weight

200

300

400

500

600

700

Lamb indicator price(18-22 kg fat score 2-4)

week ended 25th November 2011Weighted Average Saleyard Price - Victoria

2009 2010 2011

c/kg dressed weight

250

300

350

400

Baconer pig indicator priceGI 60-75 kg

week ended 25th November 2011NSW

2009 2010 2011

c/kg dressed weight

12

4. Data attributionClimateBureau of Meteorology Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap /

WaterNew South Wales New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4

Queensland Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au

South Australia SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm

South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/

Victoria Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au

Water trading Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au

CommoditiesFruit and vegetables Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.au

Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx

Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Canola Weekly Times: hardcopy

13