Week Eight: The Rise of China

WC/ 17th November 2013

This Session

During This Session

• The Essay - How many people did which of the questions; What problems did you encounter?

• The Rise of Nations – How do nations rise?

• The Rise of China – a ‘peaceful’ rise?

• Similarities and differences to the peaceful rise of the United States of America.

The Essay

The Essay: Question Breakdown

I am not marking all of your essays myself…

Of the essays given to me to mark:

• Realism – 8 people

• Human security – 5 people

• Anarchy – 2 people

• Liberalism – 4 people

The Essay: The Aftermath

Currently in the process of marking, specific feedback will come later

• Any common issues/problems?

• What would you do differently in the future?

The Rise of Nations

How do Nations Rise?

Type of Rise

A period during which a nation increases in power and influence

According to Buzan and Cox (pp.3-4), there are three types of rise….

What are they?

1. Warlike Rise

2. Cold/Negative Peaceful Rise

3. Warm/Positive Peaceful Rise

Warlike Rise

‘Realists take international relations as a highly competitivegame driven by considerations of national interest, in which warremains a constant possibility and genuine international co-operation highly improbable’ (Acharya, p.853).

So what is a warlike rise?

Remember the realists? War as a part of nature…

There is historical evidence for this: -

France challenged Spain. Britain challenged the Netherlands… (Buzan and Cox, p.2)

Cold/ Negative Peaceful Rise

Shares aspects of the warlike rise…

So What is a Cold Rise?

… Specifically the atmosphere of suspicion, but…

… it stops short of the ‘great power’ wars.

Warm/ Positive Peaceful Rise

So what is a warm rise?

Friendly

Low/No Sense of threat/suspicion

E.g. USA replaced Britain without resorting to War.

Warm and Cold Peace

The concepts of Cold and Warm Rise are thosethat permit peace, allowing a growing power: -

‘to make both absolute and relative gains inboth its material and status positions, in relationto the other great powers in the internationalsystem without precipitating major hostilitiesbetween itself and the other great powers’

(Buzan and Cox, p.4)

The Rise of Nations

The Rise of China

Why China?

Why not just talk about ‘Asian Politics’?

‘Asia is hugely diverse and there is no consensus overwhere its boundaries lie. There is really no singleconception, voice or identity of Asia. To speak of an Asianconception of, or Asian contribution to, international orderand global governance would be a grossovergeneralisation. What one tends to find instead arenational conceptions, put forward by the ruling elites invarious Asian states’

(Acharya, p.852)

The Rise of China

China has, in recent years, achieved:

‘A spectacular economic, military and political assent’ (Acharya, p.857)

Chinese IR theory is ‘to a large extent anattempt to legitimise the rise of China as apositive force in International Relations’(Acharya, p.857)

The Peaceful Rise: The Origins

• Adopted in the late 1970s/ early 1980s

• Still ongoing – China is not yet ‘risen’

• Triggered by economic reform at home

– Opening of Chinese markets to the West

(Buzan and Cox, p.5)

– Abandonment of state control of the economy

The Concept of Tianxia

Underpins the Chinese rise, but what is it?

‘In Chinese academia there are moves under way todevelop a ‘Chinese school of international relations’based partly on the historical (and benign) frameworksof the ‘all under heaven’ (Tianxia) concept, the tributarysystem and the Chinese world order. The Tianxiaconcept, stresses harmony (as opposed to sameness) –possibly to send a signal that China can be politicallydifferent from other nations and still pursue a friendshipwith them)’ (Acharya, p.859)

The Peaceful Rise

• Doctrine of multipolarisation(Acharya, p.857): co-existence in individual diversity; rejection of the need for conflict.

• They rejected ‘the view that China’s rise would trigger a power dynamic that would lead to war with the United States and other status quo powers’ (Acharya, p.857)

This is a ‘cold peace’• Relationships with other states resemble

indifference, not friendship

What Type of Rise?

• Rise notable for an absence of conflict, either with its neighbours, or with the other major world powers

A Sense of Unease

There is a lack of trust

• China may yet abandon its peaceful rise Tendency towards aggressive nationalism

(Buzan and Cox, p.3, 6)

Also…

A Sense of Unease

• Unclear how a ‘risen’ China will behave Currently focus on itself, as well as regional leadership

International ambitions are secondary

• It may all be rhetoric‘a mere strategy of deception aimed at facilitating a transit

through a dangerous period of relative weakness’ (Buzan and Cox, p.7)

Sun Tzu: Strategic deception valuable

A Reluctance to Lead Nationally…

Whilst China is gaining power, it seems reluctant to wield it at an international level… Why?

In groups, what reasons can you think of for this reluctance to take on a leadership role?

A Reluctance to Lead Nationally…InexperienceFear of provoking a backlash from other powersPrevious theoretical caution about Chinese leadership of the developing world. Perception gap: China views itself as a developing country, the rest of the world views it as an emerging global power (Acharya, p.859)Concerns about the potential sacrifice of sovereign power and independence for the sake of multilateralism and global governance. Limited integration of national and international concerns

The Rise of Nations

Compare/Contrast

The Other ‘Peaceful Rise’

• China is rising against the USA:

‘…the only other modern great power that can possibly claim to have risen peacefully’

(Buzan and Cox, p.1)

• Rise of the USA between 1865 and 1945

Similarities and Differences

1. Groups on the front row: What is similar?

2. Groups on the back row: What is different?

For Next Week

Key reading from module guide