week 5 fall 2. project management and operations
TRANSCRIPT
WEEK 5
FALL
2
PROJECT MANAGEMENTAND OPERATIONS
PROJECT PROJECT MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT
First Essay on Project Management:1697 – “An Essay Upon Projects”
1959 HBR Article – “The Project Manager”
Air Force Manual 1964
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
In today’s global marketplace, complexity and speed are certainties. In such an environment, a good axiom for project management is, Do It, Do It Right, Do It Right Now. Creating clear direction, efficiency, timely response, and quality outcomes requires project managers who are agile -- adept at change. The associated disciplinary areas are clearly spelled out in the following PMI definition.
“Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to a broad range of activities in order to meet the requirements of a particular project. Project management is comprised of five Project Management Process Groups – Initiating Processes, Planning Processes, Executing Processes, Monitoring and Controlling Processes, and Closing Processes.
Source: Project Management Institute - http://www.pmi.org/info/PP_AboutProfessionOverview.asp?nav=0501
ELEMENTS OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project team Individuals from different departments within
company
Matrix organization Team structure with members from different
functional areas depending on skills needed
Project manager - Leader of project team Project Charter – high level description of
what is to be accomplished in a project and delegates authority to project manager to implement actions to complete project
PROJECT PLANNING Statement of work
Written description of goals, work & time frame of project
Activities require labor, resources & time Precedence relationship shows sequential relationship of
project activities
ELEMENTS OF PROJECT PLANNING
Define project objective(s) Identify activities Establish precedence relationships Make time estimates Determine project completion time Compare project schedule objectives Determine resource requirements to meet objective
WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE
Hierarchical organization of work to be done on a project
Project broken down into modules
Modules subdivided into subcomponents, activities, and tasks
Identifies individual tasks, workloads, and resource requirements
PROJECT CONTROL
All activities identified and included
Completed in proper sequence
Resource needs identified
Schedule adjusted
Maintain schedule and budget
Complete on time
A GANTT CHART
Popular tool for project scheduling Graph with bar for representing
the time for each task Provides visual display of project
schedule Also shows slack for activities -
Amount of time activity can be delayed without delaying project
Around since 1912
GANTT CHARTS
Gantt charts were employed on major infrastructure projects including the Hoover Dam and Interstate highway system and still are an important tool in project management.
Gantt described two principles for his charts:
1. measure activities by the amount of time needed to complete them
2. the space on the chart can be used the represent the amount of the activity that should have been done in that time.
A GANTT CHART| | | | |
Activity
Design house and obtain financing
Lay foundation
Order and receive materials
Build house
Select paint
Select carpet
Finish work
00 22 44 66 88 1010MonthMonth
MonthMonth11 33 55 77 99
CPM/PERT
Critical Path Method (CPM) DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956) Deterministic task times
Project Eval. & Review Technique (PERT) US Navy, Lockheed Multiple task time estimates
PERT/CPM
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT): developed in conjunction with the development of the Polaris missile program for submarines – developed by the US Navy with Lockheed as the lead contractor
Critical Path Method (CPM): developed through a joint venture between the DuPont Corporation and the Remington Rand Corporation – the original purpose was to monitor and evaluate plant maintenance management projects.
PROJECT NETWORK FOR A HOUSE
3322 00
11
33
11 1111
1 2 4 6 7
3
5
Lay Lay foundationfoundation
Design Design house and house and obtain obtain financingfinancing
Order Order and and receive receive materialmaterialss
DummyDummy
Finish Finish workwork
Select Select carpetcarpet
Select Select paintpaint
Build Build househouse
Figure 6.4Figure 6.4
CRITICAL PATH
A path is a sequence of connected activities running from start to end node in network
The critical path is the path with the longest duration in the network
Project cannot be completed in less than the time of the critical path
THE CRITICAL PATH
A: 1-2-3-4-6-73 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months
B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-73 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months
C: 1-2-4-6-73 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months
D: 1-2-4-5-6-73 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months
33
22 00
11
33
11 11
111 2 4 6 7
3
5
Lay Lay foundatiofoundationn
Design Design house and house and obtain obtain financingfinancing
Order Order and and receive receive materialmaterialss
DummyDummy
Finish Finish workwork
Select Select carpetcarpet
Select Select paintpaint
Build Build househouse
PROJECT CRASHING
Crashing is reducing project time by expending additional resources
Crash time is an amount of time an activity is reduced
Crash cost is the cost of reducing the activity time
Goal is to reduce project duration at minimum cost
THE CRITICAL PATH 33
22 00
11
33
11 11
111 2 4 6 7
3
5
Lay Lay foundatiofoundationn
Design Design house and house and obtain obtain financingfinancing
Order Order and and receive receive materialmaterialss
DummyDummy
Finish Finish workwork
Select Select carpetcarpet
Select Select paintpaint
Build Build househouse
1 2 4 6 7
3
5
32 0
1
31 1
Start at 3 months
Start at 5 months
1
Finish at 9 months
Start at 8 months
Figure 6.6
Activity Start Times
Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases
Indirect costs increase as project duration increases
Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs
TIME-COST RELATIONSHIP
LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENTLong term view of projects to guide
decision making – solutions that provide life time success vice short term
Acquisition; development; production; introduction; sustainment; disposal
Links system costs to big picture; better use of resources; minimize total cost of ownership
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
FORECASTING SURVEY
How far into the future do you typically project when trying to forecast the health of your industry? less than 4 months 3%4-6 months 12% 7-12 months 28% > 12 months 57%
Fortune Council survey, Nov 2005
INDICES TO FORECAST HEALTH OF INDUSTRY Consumer price index 51% Consumer Confidence index 44% Durable goods orders 20% Gross Domestic Product 35% Manufacturing and trade inventories
and sales 27% Price of oil/barrel 34% Strength of US $ 46% Unemployment rate 53% Interest rates/fed funds 59%
Fortune Council survey, Nov 2005
FORECASTING IMPORTANCE Improving customer demand forecasting and sharing the information downstream will allow more efficient scheduling and inventory management
Boeing, 1987: $2.6 billion write down due to “raw material shortages, internal and supplier parts shortages” Wall Street Journal, Oct 23, 1987
FORECASTING IMPORTANCE“Second Quarter sales at US Surgical
Corporation decline 25%, resulting in a $22 mil loss…attributed to larger than anticipated inventories on shelves of hospitals.” US Surgical Quarterly, Jul 1993
“IBM sells out new Aetna PC; shortage may cost millions in potential revenue.” Wall Street Journal, Oct 7, 1994
PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING
Forecasts are usually wrong
every forecast should include an estimate of error
Forecasts are more accurate for families or groups
Forecasts are more accurate for nearer periods.
IMPORTANT FACTORS TO IMPROVE FORECASTING• Record Data in the same terms as
needed in the forecast – production data for production forecasts; time periods
• Record circumstances related to the data
• Record the demand separately for different customer groups
FORECAST TECHNIQUES
• Extrinsic Techniques – projections based on indicators that relate to products – examples
• Intrinsic – historical data used to forecast (most common)
FORECASTING
Forecasting errors can increase the total cost of ownership for a product
- inventory carrying costs- obsolete inventory- lack of sufficient inventory- quality of products due to
accepting marginal products to prevent stockout
FORECASTING
• Essential for smooth operations of business organizations
• Estimates of the occurrence, timing, or magnitude of uncertain future events
• Costs of forecasting: excess labor; excess materials; expediting costs; lost revenues
FORECASTING
• Predicting future events• Usually demand behavior
over a time frame• Qualitative methods
• Based on subjective methods
• Quantitative methods• Based on mathematical formulas
TIME FRAME• Short-range to medium-range
• Daily, weekly monthly forecasts of sales data
• Up to 2 years into the future
• Long-range• Strategic planning of goals,
products, markets• Planning beyond 2 years into
the future
DEMAND BEHAVIOR• Trend
• gradual, long-term up or down movement
• Cycle• up & down movement repeating over
long time frame• Seasonal pattern
• periodic oscillation in demand which repeats
• Random movements follow no pattern
FORMS OF FORECAST MOVEMENT
TimeTime(a) Trend(a) Trend
TimeTime(d) Trend with seasonal pattern(d) Trend with seasonal pattern
TimeTime(c) Seasonal pattern(c) Seasonal pattern
TimeTime(b) Cycle(b) Cycle
Dem
and
Dem
and
Dem
and
Dem
and
Dem
and
Dem
and
Dem
and
Dem
and
Random Random movementmovement
FORECASTING METHODS
• Time series• Regression or causal modeling
• Qualitative methods• Management judgment, expertise,
opinion• Use management, marketing,
purchasing, engineering• Delphi method
• Solicit forecasts from experts
TIME SERIES METHODS• Statistical methods using historical data
• Moving average• Exponential smoothing• Linear trend line
• Assume patterns will repeat• Naive forecasts
• Forecast = data from last period
MOVING AVERAGE
Average several periods of data
Dampen, smooth out changes
Use when demand is stable with no trend or seasonal pattern
Sum of Demand In n Periods
n
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
JanJan 120120FebFeb 9090MarMar 100100AprApr 7575MayMay 110110JuneJune 5050JulyJuly 7575AugAug 130130SeptSept 110110OctOct 9090
ORDERSORDERSMONTHMONTH PER MONTHPER MONTH
JanJan 120120FebFeb 9090MarMar 100100AprApr 7575MayMay 110110JuneJune 5050JulyJuly 7575AugAug 130130SeptSept 110110OctOct 9090
ORDERSORDERSMONTHMONTH PER MONTHPER MONTH
MAMAnovnov = = 33
==90 + 110 + 13090 + 110 + 130
33
= 110 orders for Nov
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
Daug+Dsep+Doct
JanJan 120120 ––FebFeb 9090 – –MarMar 100100 – –AprApr 7575 103.3103.3MayMay 110110 88.388.3JuneJune 5050 95.095.0JulyJuly 7575 78.378.3AugAug 130130 78.378.3SeptSept 110110 85.085.0OctOct 9090 105.0105.0NovNov – – 110.0110.0
ORDERSORDERS THREE-MONTHTHREE-MONTHMONTHMONTH PER MONTHPER MONTH MOVING AVERAGEMOVING AVERAGE
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
JanJan 120120 ––FebFeb 9090 – –MarMar 100100 – –AprApr 7575 103.3103.3MayMay 110110 88.388.3JuneJune 5050 95.095.0JulyJuly 7575 78.378.3AugAug 130130 78.378.3SeptSept 110110 85.085.0OctOct 9090 105.0105.0NovNov – – 110.0110.0
ORDERSORDERS THREE-MONTHTHREE-MONTHMONTHMONTH PER MONTHPER MONTH MOVING AVERAGEMOVING AVERAGE
Example 8.1Example 8.1
==90 + 110 + 130 + 75 + 5090 + 110 + 130 + 75 + 5055
= 91 orders for Nov= 91 orders for Nov
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
JanJan 120120 –– – –FebFeb 9090 – – – –MarMar 100100 – – – –AprApr 7575 103.3103.3 – –MayMay 110110 88.388.3 – –JuneJune 5050 95.095.0 99.099.0JulyJuly 7575 78.378.3 85.085.0AugAug 130130 78.378.3 82.082.0SeptSept 110110 85.085.0 88.088.0OctOct 9090 105.0105.0 95.095.0NovNov – – 110.0110.0 91.091.0
ORDERSORDERS THREE-MONTHTHREE-MONTH FIVE-MONTHFIVE-MONTHMONTHMONTH PER MONTHPER MONTH MOVING AVERAGEMOVING AVERAGE MOVING AVERAGEMOVING AVERAGE
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
Adjusts moving average method to more closely reflect data fluctuations
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
WMAn = i = 1Wi Di
where
Wi = the weight for period i,
between 0 and 100 percent
Wi = 1.00
Adjusts moving average method to more closely reflect data fluctuations
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE EXAMPLE
MONTH WEIGHT DATA
August 17% 130September 33% 110October 50% 90
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE EXAMPLE
MONTH WEIGHT DATA
August 17% 130September 33% 110October 50% 90
November forecast
WMA3 = 3
i = 1Wi Di
= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)
= 103.4 orders
3 Month = 110 5 month = 91
• Averaging method • Weights most recent data
more strongly• Reacts more to recent
changes• Widely used, accurate
method
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Ft +1 = Dt + (1 - )Ft
where
Ft +1 =forecast for next period
Dt =actual demand for present period
Ft =previously determined forecast for present period
= weighting factor, smoothing constant
Averaging method
Weights most recent data more strongly
Reacts more to recent changes
Widely used, accurate method
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
FORECAST FOR NEXT PERIODForecast = (weighting
factor)x(actual demand for period)+(1-weighting factor)x(previously determined forecast for present period)
0 > <= 1Lesserreactionto recent demand
Greaterreactionto recent demand
FORECAST ACCURACY
• Find a method which minimizes error
• Error = Actual - Forecast
FORECAST CONTROL
Reasons for out-of-control forecasts• Change in trend• Appearance of cycle• Weather changes• Promotions• Competition• Politics
REVERSE LOGISTICS: IMPORTANT OR IRRITANT?
Estimated $100 billion industry in 2006
Survey shows considerable spending on Returns
“In an ideal world, reverse logistics would not exist.”
Jim Whalen, “In Through the Out Door,”Warehousing Management, March 2001
“Now, more than ever, reverse logistics is seen as being important.”
Dale Rogers, Going Backwards, 1999
REVERSE LOGISTICS - WHAT IS IT?THE ARMY’S DEFINITION
The return of serviceable supplies that are surplus to the needs of the unit or are unserviceable and in need of rebuild or remanufacturing to return the item to a serviceable status
REVERSE LOGISTICS - WHAT IS IT?THE COMMERCIAL PERSPECTIVEReverse Logistics is the process of
moving products from their typical final destination to another point, for the purpose of capturing value otherwise unavailable, or for the proper disposal of the products.
Any activity that takes money from the company after the sale of the product
TYPICAL REVERSE LOGISTICS ACTIVITIES
Processing returned merchandise - damaged, seasonal, restock, salvage, recall, or excess inventory
Recycling packaging materials/containers
Reconditioning, refurbishing, remanufacturing
Disposition of obsolete stuff
Hazmat recovery
WHY REVERSE LOGISTICS?
Competitive advantageCustomer service
- Very Important: 57%
- Important: 18%
- Somewhat/unimportant:23%Bottom line profits
REVERSE LOGISTICS - NEW PROBLEM?
Sherman Montgomery Ward’s - 1894 Recycling/remanufacturing in 1940s World War II - 77,000,000 square feet of
storage across Europe with over $6.3 billion in excess stuff
Salvage and reuse of clothing and shoes in the Pacific Theater World War II
KEY DATES IN REVERSE LOGISTICS
World War II – the advent of refurbished automobile parts due to shortages
1984 - Tylenol Scare - Johnson and Johnson
1991 - German ordinance that put teeth in environmental reverse pipeline
Summer 1996 – UK Packaging and Packaging Waste Legislation
1998 - first real study of reverse logistics in the US - University of Nevada, Reno
2001 – EU goal of 50-65% recovering or recycling of packaging waste
REVERSE LOGISTICS
A US A
RMY PE
RSPECTI
VE
OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM
The US Army moved the equivalent of 150 Wal-Mart Supercenters to Kuwait in a matter of a few months
MILITARY OPERATIONS AND EXCESS
“In battle, troops get temperamental and ask for things which they really do not need. However, where humanly possible, their requests, no matter how unreasonable, should be answered.” George S. Patton, Jr.
JANE’S DEFENCE WEEKLY
“Recent report (Aug 2003): There is a 40 hectare (~100 acres) area in Kuwait with items waiting to be retrograded back to the US.”
From GAO Audit Report
Does this create a problem?
From GAO Audit Report
REVERSE LOGISTICS
THE C
OMMERCIAL P
ERSPECTI
VE
REVERSE LOGISTICSRate of returns?
Cost to process a return?
Time to get the item back on the shelf if resaleable?
COSTS - ABOVE THE COST OF THE ITEM
Merchandise credits to the customers. The transportation costs of moving the items from the
retail stores to the central returns distribution center. The repackaging of the serviceable items for resale. The cost of warehousing the items awaiting disposition. The cost of disposing of items that are unserviceable,
damaged, or obsolete.
COSTS
• Process inbound shipment at a major distribution center = 1.1 days
• Process inbound return shipment = 8.5 days
• Cost of lost sales• Wal-Mart: Christmas 2003 -
returns = 4 Days of Supply for all of Wal-Mart = 2000 Containers
MORE COSTS
Hoover - $40 Million per year Cost of processing $85 per itemUnnamed Distribution Company -
$700K items on reverse auction2001 - over $60 billion in returns;
$52 billion excess to systems; $40 billion to process
2010 – majority of cell phones -
Estimate of 2004 holiday returns: $13.2 billion
% of estimated 2004/2005 holiday returns: 25%
Wal-Mart: $6 Billion in annual returns = 17,000 truck loads (>46 trucks a day)
Electronics: $10 Billion annually in returns
Personal Computers: $1.5 Billion annually = approximately $95 per PC sold
79% of returned PCs have no defects
Home Depot ~ $10 million in returns in the stores alone
Local Wal-Mart ~ $1 million a month in returns
IS IT A PROBLEM?
European influence – spread to US - Green Laws
Estee Lauder - $60 million a year into land fills
FORTUNE 500 Company - $200 million over their $300 million budget for returns
Same Provider - 40,000 products returned per month; 55% no faults noted
K-Mart - $980 million in returns 1999
Warranty vice paid repairs
Recent survey of FORTUNE 500 Companies = 12% of companies:
MORE CONSEQUENCES
Increased Customer Wait Times
Loss of Confidence in the Supply System
Multiple orders for the same items
Excess supplies in the forward pipeline
Increase in “stuff” in the reverse pipeline
Constipated supply chain
IMPACT?
• Every resaleable item that is in the reverse supply chain results in a potential stock out or “zero balance” at the next level of supply.
• Creates a “stockout” do-loop
RESULTS?
This potential for a stock out results in additional parts on the shelves at each location to prevent a stock out from occurring.
More stocks = “larger logistics footprint” = the need for larger distribution centers and returns centers.
REVERSE LOGISTICS
According to the Reverse Logistics Executive Council, the percent increase in costs for processing a return, as compared to a forward sale, is an astounding 200-300%.
Typically, as many as 8-12 more steps per item in the reverse pipeline than items in the forward pipeline
“The truth is, for one reason or another, materials do come back and it is up to those involved in the warehouse to effectively recover as much of the cost for these items as possible.”
- Whalen, “In Through the Out Door”
RFID AND RETURNS
• Visibility Tracking
• Component tracking
• Data Warehouse on what, why, when
• Altered products
• Not for every product
IMPACTS OF REVERSE LOGISTICS
• Forecasting• Carrying costs• Processing costs• Warehousing• Distribution• Transportation• Personnel• Marketing