week 3 & 4: setting, strategy, intensity · week 3 & 4: setting, strategy, intensity §pid...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity
§ PID and issue voting are fundamentals/baseline for
an election
§ Candidates know baseline and want to win
§ Candidates act strategically
§ Strategy is constrained by electoral setting
⇒ Setting & Strategy condition voting behavior
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity
§ Fundamentals
§ Setting
⇒ How much campaign do we see?
§ Strategy
⇒ Which states?
⇒ What type of ads?
⇒ What position?
2
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting
§ “The Vote”…? — Which vote are we talking about?⇒ One presidential election or many?⇒ 435 House elections⇒ ~33 Senate elections⇒ gubernatorial elections⇒ local elections
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting
§ Geographic Differencese.g., size of state/district
§ Demographic Differencese.g., racial diversity
§ Political Differencese.g., party balance
§ Differences in the Information Environmente.g., media markets
3
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting
§ Gronke⇒ considerable difference across districts and
states on many demographic variables⇒ but on average, states are more
heterogeneous than districts§ For us, main point is enormous diversity in
campaign settings§ Later: What are the consequences of this
diversity for voting behavior?
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Racial Diversity
4
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Educational Diversity
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Population Density
5
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Partisan Balance
Strategy…?
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Partisan Competitiveness
Strategy…?
6
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting
§ How much campaign do we see?⇒ Answer #1:
not much in uncompetitive districts
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
§ Goal:Reach as many of your potential voters as cheaply as possible without wasting money on those who can’t vote for you anyway§ Media Market:
All counties that receive 50% or more of their TV signals from the same stations
7
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Nielsen Media Markets, 2001-2
0.0043,900Glendive, MT2100.01415,260North Platte, NE2090.01617,290Alpena, MI2080.02323,730Helena, MT207
0.02323,990Juneau, AK206…
2.3012,426,010San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose52.6562,801,010Philadelphia, PA43.1873,360,770Chicago, IL35.0305,303,490Los Angeles, CA2
6.9247,301,060New York, NY1all TV HH
# TV HouseholdsMedia MarketRank
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
Measuring the media environment§ 1. Media market dominance
⇒How many media markets does the district have?
⇒e.g., most districts are dominated by one market, but Wyoming’s only district has SIX different markets
8
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
Measuring the media environment§ 2. Media market contiguity/congruence
⇒Fit between district and media market:How much of the market is in the district?How much of the district is in the market?
⇒e.g., districts in big cities (NYC, LA) are completely within one market, but make up only a small part of that market
9
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
Measuring the media environment§ 3. Advertising cost per capita
⇒If you want to reach the entire district population with a commercial during the six o’clock news, what is the cost per voter in the district?
10
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
§ Reaching voters is more difficult in some districts than others§ Applies to paid advertising as well as free
news coverage§ Prinz:
What are the consequences for candidate awareness (which has a powerful impact on vote decisions in House elections)?
11
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
§ Measures of candidate awareness used by Prinz⇒has respondent been contacted by
candidate?⇒has respondent seen candidate on TV?⇒name recognition (incumbent/challenger)
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting: Media Environment
§ Prinz’s results⇒Candidate contact, TV visibility, and
recognition are all higher in congruent districts (for both incumbent and challenger)
⇒Challengers tend to benefit more from congruent districts, reducing the incumbent advantage in awareness
12
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ House elections (Prinz)⇒Some media environments disadvantage
challengers because they lack sufficient funds
⇒Result: One-sided campaign§ Presidential elections
⇒Challenger funding not a problem⇒But… any ads in state of New York?
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
13
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
Top 75 Media Markets only (80% of U.S. population)Source: Brennan Center for Justice 2000 Study
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
14
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Electoral Setting & Strategy
§ How much campaign do we see?⇒ Answer #1:
not much in uncompetitive districts⇒ Answer #2:
depends on your media market⇒ Answer #3:
depends on strategy
15
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Strategy
§ Presidential Elections⇒ Which states should a campaign contest?⇒ Shaw reading
§ Congressional Elections⇒ Which states/districts attract viable (high quality,
well-funded) challengers?⇒ Gronke, ch.5: “candidate emergence”
§ Campaigns are the dependent variable this week
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ Shaw examines electoral college strategies⇒Each state has one electoral college vote for
each Senate and House seat⇒Total: 535 votes, need 268 to win⇒Setting is “simultaneous, multistate,
weighted, winner-take-all”
16
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ Do presidential campaigns have strategies?⇒Internal or published records of strategies
at the start of the fall campaign (Sept.)§ Can we identify the factors used to derive
these strategies?⇒What’s special about the states that end up
being battleground states?§ Do campaigns follow their strategy?
⇒Are actual visits and advertising volume in fall campaign predicted by September strategies?
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ Do presidential campaigns have strategies?
Both campaigns’ agree strongly on classification of states
17
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ Do presidential campaigns have strategies?
Base Democratic:9 states, 134 electoral votes
Marginal Democratic:9 states, 102 electoral votes
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ Can we identify the factors used to derive these strategies? Dependent variable:
Likelihood of being battleground state
Cheap ads – more likely to be battleground
Many electoral votes – more likely to be battleground
BUT ONLY if the state has been competitive in the past
18
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ Do campaigns follow their strategy?
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ Only their strategy…?
19
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections
§ More than winning plurality of electoral votes⇒ gaining electoral mandate
(more states than necessary, popular vote)⇒ affecting composition of Congress
(helping in close congressional races)
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
§ How do different settings (media markets, demographic diversity, partisan balance) affect challenger quality and spending?⇒High-quality challengers lead to more
intense campaigns(because only high-quality challengers have a chance to unseat an incumbent)
⇒Candidate spending leads to more intense campaigns
Candidate Strategy: Congressional Elections
20
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Congressional Elections
What determines challenger quality?
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Congressional Elections
What determines incumbent spending?
21
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Candidate Strategy: Congressional Elections
Markus Prior Political Science 177a
Strategy: Summary
§ Electoral setting affects candidate strategy, how much campaign we see§ Hardly any campaigning in some
states/districts⇒Fundamentals (PID, maybe issues) are all
that voters have⇒Plus incumbency factors in House elections
§ Intense campaigns in other states/districts⇒Do ads and news affect vote decisions?⇒Fundamentals less important?