week 1week 2week 3week 4week 5 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500

WEEK 1 WEEK 2 WEEK 3 WEEK 4 WEEK 5

$100 $100 $100 $100 $100

$200 $200 $200 $200 $200

$300 $300 $300 $300 $300

$400 $400 $400 $400 $400

$500 $500 $500 $500 $500

WHAT IS A MISSING, CONFUSING, SCARY, AND

AUTHORITATIVE NUMBER?

MISSING: RELEVANT INFORMATION THAT IS OMITTEDCONFUSING: NUMBERS THAT ARE AMBIGIOUS

SCARY: NUMBERS THAT EXAGGERATE THEH PROBABILITY OF BAD EVENTS

AUTHORITATIVE: NUMBERS PUSHED BY AUTHORITY FIGURE THAT WE TEND TO BELIEVE ARE STATISTICS

WHAT ARE SHIVELY’S FIVE CRITERIA FOR A GOOD THEORY?

GIVE A BRIEF ONE SENTENCE STATEMENT ON EACH.

CONSISTENCY: MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR EVIDENCE ON RESEARCH QUESTION

FALSIFIABILITY: SCIENTISTS CAN PROVE THEORY FALSE WITH EVIDENCE

GENERALIZABLE: CAPABLE OF GENERATING TO MANY OTHER OBSERVATIONS

PARSIMONY: MAKE IT SIMPLE AS POSSIBLELEVERAGE: EXPLAIN A COMPLICATED EFFECT WITH AS

FEW CAUSAL VARIABLES AS POSSIBLE

HOW IS SCIENCE A PROCESS? WHY IS SCIENCE BETTER THAN

TRADITION, INTUITION, or AUTHORITY?

SCIENCE IS EMPIRICAL. IT’S A SYSTEMATIC AND COMPARATIVE DISCIPLINE WHERE RESEARCHERS DEBATE

PUBLICLY, SHARE DISCOVERY, AND IS MAINLY OPEN TO CRITICISM AND TESTING. TRADITION, INTUITION AND

AUTHORITY DO NOT SHARE THESE PROPERTIES.

HOW DOES A SCIENTIST INTERACT WITH COMMON SENSE AND CRITICISM?

“IF YOU’RE A GOOD SCIENTIST, YOU’RE OPTOMISTIC, SELF-CONFIDENT, AND OPEN TO CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM.”

SCIENCE IS OPEN TO CRITICISM LIKE NO OTHER DISCIPLINE IS. IN ADDITION, THEORY ALSO EXPANDS PERCEPTIONS BECAUSE OF EMPHASIS ON GENERAL KNOWLEDGE AND CAN SPECIFY THE CONDITIONS IN

WHICH THOSE RULES APPLY.

WHAT ARE THE THREE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

SCIENCE AND LAW/BUSINESS?

IN SCIENCE, CORRECT INFORMATION IS THE PRIMARY GOAL.

IN SCIENCE, WE ARE ORIENTED TOWARD THE TRUTH.

IN SCIENCE, THERE IS A PUBLIC COMPETITION.

WHAT IS AND WHAT IS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN

THEORY, CONCEPTS, AND VARIABLES? GIVE AN EXAMPLE.

YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO THIS IN YOUR SLEEP.

YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO POINT THIS OUT WHEN YOU’RE LOOKING AT TRENDS AS WELL.

WHAT IS AN INDEPENDENT AND WHAT IS A DEPENDENT

VARIABLE? HOW DO THESE DIFFER FROM CONCEPTS?

INDEPENDENT: VARIABLE AFFECTING THE OUTCOMEDEPENDENT: OUTCOME VARIABLE

VARIABLES ARE MEASUREMENTSCONCEPTS ARE IDEAS

YOU GO FROM CONCEPTS TO VARIABLES: IDEAS TO MEASUREMENT

WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A UNIDIMENSIONAL

AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONCEPT?

UNIDIMENSIONAL CONCEPTS ARE UNIEQUIVOCAL AND SIMPLE. MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONCEPTS ARE HARDER TO

UNDERSTAND AND VARY FROM READER TO READER.

HOW IS THE CONCEPT OF OPERATIONALIZATION RELATED

TO THEORY BUIDLING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SCIENCES?

OPERATIONALIZING DIFFERENT VARIABLES, WHAT WE DID IN ASSIGNMENT #4, IS BASICALLY TRIAL AND ERROR. WE

ARE TRYING TO EMPLOY COMMON SENSE AND WE ARE CRITICAL OF OUR OWN METHODS IN ORDER TO GET AS

CLOSE TO THE TRUTH AS POSSIBLE.

Lee Najjar. Lee Najjar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Lee_Najjar&action=edit&redlink=1




HOW DOES STATISTICAL LITERACY RELATE TO WHAT

WE’VE BEEN LEARNING IN THIS CLASS?

STATISTICAL LITERACY IS THE ABILITY TO THINK CRITICALLY ABOUT STATISTICS. ANYTHING WE DO IN THIS

CLASS IS ATTEMPTING TO HAVE YOU THINK CRITICALLY ABOUT STATISTICS.






WHAT IS RELIABLITY? WHAT IS VALIDITY?

REFERS TO HOW WELL YOUR VARIABLES MEASURES ITS CONCEPT (OPERATIONALIZATION)

RELIABILITY IS CONSISTENCY: YOUR MEASURE WILL GET THE RESULT WHEN IT’S TESTED OVER AND OVER AGAIN

VALIDITY IS ACCURACY: YOU’RE PURPORTING YOUR MEASURE IS WHAT YOU WANT TO MEASURE.






DESCRIBE NONRANDOM AND RANDOM ERROR AND HOW

THEY RELATE TO RELIABLITY AND VALIDITY.

NON RANDOM ERROR RELATES BACK TO VALIDITY. NON RANDOM ERROR IS A SYSTEMATIC ERROR USUALLY FROM

USING COMING FROM THE INSTRUMENT ITSELF.

RANDOM ERROR RELATES BACK TO RELIABLITY. RANDOM ERROR USUALLY PARALLELS THE TRUE RELATIONSHIP, BUT IS OFF DUE TO INCONSISTENCY IN THE MEASURE.






A SURVEY ASKS YOU TO REPORT YOUR INCOME, ROUNDED TO

THE NEAREST THOUSAND DOLLARS. WHAT LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT IS THIS?

INTERVAL: WE CAN MEASURE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE CATEGORIES OF INCOME AND THOSE

DIFFERENCES ARE MEASURABLE BY A THOUSAND DOLLARS.






YOU ASK A QUESTION ON A SURVEY THAT ASKS OBAMA OR MCCAIN. YOU COMPARE THAT TO THE ACTUAL RESULTS ON NOV. 5. YOUR RESULTS ARE

VALID. WHAT TYPE OF VALIDITY IS THIS?

PREDICITIVE VALIDITY (OR CRITERION-RELATED VALIDITY). BE PREPARED TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ON ALL

DIFFERENT TYPES OF VALIDITY OR BE PREAPARED TO IDENTIFY WHY A MEASURE IS VALID.






YOUR THEORY PREDICTS SOMEONE WILL GET A SCORE

OF 89 ON A TEST. THEIR ACTUAL SCORE WAS 83. WHAT’S

THE ERROR SCORE AND GIVE POTENTIAL REASONS FOR THIS

ERROR.THE ERROR SCORE IS 6. THIS CAN BE THE RESULT OF

EITHER AN UNRELIABLE OR INVALID MEASURE THAT WE USED IN THE SURVEY.






WHAT IS THE MEAN OF THESE FIVE NUMBERS:

5, 10, 10, 5, 5

5 + 10 + 10 + 5 + 5 = 35/5 = 7 Lee Najjar. Lee Najjar.





THE MIDTERM GRADES COME BACK AND WE GRAPH THE RESULTS. WE SEE A GRAPH THAT IS SKEWED TO THE RIGHT. WHAT DOES THIS

MEAN?THIS MEANS THAT MORE PEOPLE SCORED HIGHER ON THE MIDTERM THAN SCORED LOWER.

OUR MEDIAN IS LARGER THAN THE MEAN.

Lee Najjar.

Lee Najjar.





UNDER WHAT CONDITIONS WOULD YOU USE THE MEDIAN RATHER THAN THE MEAN AS A

MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY? WHY?

IF YOU HAVE SOME VERY HIGH OR LOW SCORERS IN YOUR DATA, YOU’LL HAVE OUTLIERS THAT WILL THROW YOUR MEAN OFF AND MAKE IT ARTIFICIALLY HIGH OR LOW. IN THIS CASE, A MEDIAN IS THE BETTER INDICATOR OF A

CENTRAL TENDENCY.






A STUDY FINDS THAT PREGANANT WOMEN WHO

HEAVILY USE CELL PHONES ARE FOUND TO HAVE CHILDREN

WHO HAVE BEHAVIORAL PROBLEMS. WHAT ARE SOME

POTENTIAL PROBLEMS OF CAUSALITY?BEHAVIORAL PROBLEMS DO NOT ARISE UNTIL A CHILD IS

USUALLY A TODDLER OR OF SCHOOL AGE. IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH CAUSALITY BECAUSE MANY

THINGS CAN AFFECT A CHILD’S BEHAVIORAL PATTERNS BEFORE THEY START DISPLAYING BEHAVIORAL

PROBLEMS.






IF WE REJECT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS, WHAT DOES THIS

MEAN?

THE NULL HYPOTHESIS IS THE OPPOSITE OF THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS WE PROPOSE. IF WE REJECT THE NULL, THIS MEANS THAT OUR RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS IS

TRUE AND THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES. IF WE ACCEPT THE NULL, THERE IS NO

RELATIONSHIP.






WHAT DO THE MARGINALS IN TABLES TELL US?

IT TELLS US THE SUM OF THAT COLUMN OR ROW.

SIGMA (Σ) REPRESENTS SUM.






WHAT IS A CONTROL VARIABLE AND HOW DOES IT WORK IN

TABLES?

A CONTROL VARIABLE IS A VARIABLE THAT MAY POTENTIALLY CHANGE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TWO

OTHER VARIABLES.


South North

Men Women Men Women Men Women

Not Agg 42 67 25 67 58 67

Agg 58 33 75 33 42 33





WHAT IS A T-TEST? WHAT DOES IT DO?

A T-TEST COMPARES THE MEANS OF TWO DIFFERENT GROUPS IN ORDER TO SEE IF THERE’S A SIGNIFICANT

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS.






WHAT IS STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE?

STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE MEANS THAT THE ODDS OF ONE EVENT IS UNAFFECTED BY THE ODDS OF ANOTHER

EVENT HAPPENING. FOR EXAMPLE, YOU CAN GET 500 HEADS ON 500 SUCCESSIVE COIN FLIPS, BUT THE 501TH

TIME, THE ODDS ARE STILL 50/50.






HOW DO YOU CALCULATE CHI-SQUARED?

THE SUM OF THE (OBSERVED FREQUENCY – EXPECTED FREQUENCY)^2 OVER THE EXPECTED FREQUENCY. (O-

E^2)/E


Category Observed Frequency

Expected Frequency

Difference of O and E

(O-E)^2 Chi-Squared

For 23 30 7 49 1.63

Maybe 17 30 13 169 5.63

Against 50 30 20 400 13.33

week 1week 2week 3week 4week 5 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500

Documents

science better

lee najjar

unidimensional concepts

good theory

multidimensional concepts

theory false

theory buidling

causal variables