week 1
DESCRIPTION
finance week 1 recordingTRANSCRIPT
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(1) Like public companies, private companies can also use their share price as a measure of performance.
(2) Financing for public corporations must flow through financial markets.
Review Questions
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Module 2
Valuation of Securities (Chapters 5, 6, 7)
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1/ Future values and present values
2/ Compound interest
3/ Multiple cash flows, perpetuities and annuities
4/ Effective annual interest rates
5/ Inflation and time value
Chapter 5: Time Value of Money
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Example 1
$1000
0 1
$900
$1000 $1000
$1000 $1030
$1000 $1100
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
?
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Example 1 (cont.)
Compensation Expected inflation
Delayed consumption
$100 $30 $70 + =
r %CPI rreal + =
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Inflation and Interest Rates
Approx.
r = %CPI + rreal
Nominal int. rate = Inflation rate + Real int. Rate
Exact
(1 + r) = (1 + %CPI) * (1 + rreal)
r = (1 + %CPI) * (1 + rreal) – 1
rreal = (1 + r) / (1 + %CPI) – 1
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Example 1 (cont.)
0 1
$1000 $1100 (4)
10% = 3% + 7% At t = 0:
What happen if you find out that the price of a 32” LCD TV has increased to $1090 in stead of $1030 as expected?
How much are you rewarded for your delayed consumption? Or what is your actual rate of return?
At t = 1:
Actual inflation = 9% !!
Realized return = 10% - actual infl. = 1% !!
We are here now!!
We are here now!!
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Example 2
0 1
$1000 $1000
0 1 Now Then This year Next year Present Future
X
Y
$1000 * (1 + r)
r = 10% $1100
$1000 / (1 + r)
r = 10% $909
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Example 2 (cont.)
0 1
$1000 $1000
Present Future
$1000 $1100
$909 $1000
FV = PV * (1 + r)
PV = FV / (1 + r)
(1)
(2)
(3)
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Example 2 (cont.)
$1000 $1100
0 1 2
$1210
$1100 * (1 + 10%) $1210
FV2 = PV1 * (1 + r) $1000 * (1 + 10%)
$1100 FV1 = PV0 * (1 + r)
$1100 * (1 + 10%) $1210
FV2 = FV1 * (1 + r) FV2 = PV0 * (1 + r) * (1 + r)
FV2 = PV0 * (1 + r)2
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Future Value:
FV = PV * (1 + r)t
Present value:
PV = FV / (1 + r)t
Where • r is interest rate per period • t is the number of periods
Future & Present Values
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Example 2 (cont.)
$1000
0 1 2
$1000 * (1 + 10%) $1100
$1000 * (1 + 10%) $1100 $1000
$100 $100 * (1 + 10%)
$110
= +
$1210
+
At t= 2: $1210 = $1000 + $200 + $10
Original CF Simple interest Compounding
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Compounding Effect
Year FV Principal Simple interest
Compounding %Compound
0 100.00 100 0 0.00 0.00
5 133.82 100 30 3.82 0.03
10 179.08 100 60 19.08 0.11
15 239.66 100 90 49.66 0.21
20 320.71 100 120 100.71 0.31
25 429.19 100 150 179.19 0.42
30 574.35 100 180 294.35 0.51
Future value and its components (r = 6% per year)
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Compounding Effect
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FV (
$)
Year
Future Value Components
Principal Simple Compound
r = 6%
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Compounding Effect
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
% o
f Fu
ture
Val
ue
Year
Compounding Effect r = 3% r = 6% r = 12%
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Compounding Effect
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Futu
re V
alu
e
Year
Total Future Value
r = 3% r = 6% r = 12%
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Compounding Effect
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Pre
sen
t V
alu
e
Year
Present Value r = 3% r = 6% r = 12%
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r = %CPI + rreal
Nominal int. rate = Inflation rate + Real int. Rate
FV = original CF + simple interest + compounding
When n compounding effect
If r1 > r2 then
(comp. eff.)1 > (comp. eff.)2 and
%(comp. eff.)1 > %(comp. eff.)2
For the same FV, if r1 > r2 then PV1 < PV2
What did we learn so far?
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Example 3
$1000
Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13
National Bank
(1)
3% 3% (2)
6% $1060.0
$1000 * (1 + 6%)
$1030 $1060.9 $1000 * (1 + 3%) $1030 * (1 + 3%)
$1000 * (1 + 3%) * (1 + 3%) (1 + 6.09%) $1000 * =
(1 + 3%)2 = (1 + 6.09%)
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Effective Annual Interest Rate
(1 + 6.09%) = (1 + 3%)2
6% 2
(1 + 6.09%) 1 + 2
=
EAR
Effective Annual Rate (EAR) Annual interest
Rate (r)
Number of compounding periods in a year (m)
+ ) r 1 m
+ m
= - 1 (
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Effective Annual Interest Rate
• m = 1 (annual): EAR = (1 + 6%)1 – 1 = 6%
• m = 2 (semi-annual): EAR = (1 + 6%/2)2 – 1 = 6.09%
• m = 4 (quarterly): EAR = (1 + 6%/4)4 – 1 = 6.14%
• m = 12 (monthly): EAR = (1 + 6%/12)12 – 1 = 6.17%
• m = 365 (daily): EAR = (1 + 6%/365)365 – 1 = 6.18%
• m (continuous): EAR = e0.06 – 1 = 6.184%
EAR r 1 m
+ m
= - 1
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Future & Present Values Revisited
… CF0
1 2 3 0 n
FV – single cash flow
FV1 = CF0(1 + r)1
FV2 = CF0(1 + r)2
FV3 = CF0(1 + r)3
FVn = CF0(1 + r)n
FV1 < FV2 < FV3 < … < FVn
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Future – Present Values Revisited
CF0 CF2 CF3
FV – multiple cash flows
CF1
CFn-1 (1 + r)1
CF3 (1 + r)n-3
CF2 (1 + r)n-2
CF1 (1 + r)n-1
CFn-1
… 1 2 3 0 n n-1
CF0 (1 + r)n
= FV +
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FV = CFt n
t
(1 + r)n-t
Future – Present Values Revisited
FV – A general case
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CF3 / (1 + r)3
CF1 /(1 + r)1
Future – Present Values Revisited
… 1 2 3 0 n
PV – A general case
CF2 / (1 + r)2
CFn (1 + r)n
CF1 CF2 CF3 CFn
PV = +
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PV = CFt n
t (1 + r)t _____
Future – Present Values Revisited
PV – A general case
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PV = CFt n
t (1 + r)t _____
Future – Present Values Revisited
PV – A general case
• CFt = cash flow at the period t
• n = total number of periods
• r = interest rate per period
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4. An annual percentage rate will be equal to
an effective annual rate if:
(a) simple interest is used.
(b) compounding occurs continuously.
(c) compounding occurs annually.
(d) an error has occurred; these terms cannot
be equal.
Review Questions
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How much more would you be willing to pay today for an investment offering $10,000 in four years rather than the normally advertised five-year period? Your discount rate is 8%.
Review Questions
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• Cash price: $3,200 • 20% deposit : $3,200 * 20% = $640 • Financed amount = $3,200 - $640 = $2,560 • Weekly payment = $66.46 • Number of weeks = 52
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Annuities
An annuity is an equally spaced level stream of cash flows with a finite maturity.
…
c c c c c
1 2 8 9 10 0
= = = = ...
is known
PV = ?
c =
What is the annuity value, i.e. the combined value of all cash flows, today? What is the annuity value at maturity?
FV10 = ?
n …
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Annuities
PV =
Ordinary annuity
C C
… C C C C
1 2 8 9 0 n …
End of year End of year End of year End of year End of year
Annuity due
C C
… C C C C
1 2 8 9 0 n …
Begin of year Begin of year Begin of year Begin of year Begin of year
+
+ PV =
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Annuities
PV of an ordinary annuity
C
… C C C C
1 2 3 n-1 0 n
C
(1+r)1 PVann. =
C
(1+r)2
C
(1+r)3
C
(1+r)n-1
C
(1+r)n + + +…+ +
C r PVann. =
1 (1 + r)n
1 -
C = cash flow per period r = interest rate per period n = number of periods till maturity
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1 – [1/(1+r)]n
1 – [1/(1+r)]
Annuities
PV of an annuity C
(1+r)1 PVann. =
C
(1+r)2
C
(1+r)3
C
(1+r)n-1
C
(1+r)n + + +…+ +
C
(1+r) PVann. =
1
(1+r)1
1
(1+r)2
1
(1+r)n-2
1
(1+r)n-1 + +…+ + 1 +
Because: (1 – vn) = (1 – v) * (1 + v + v2 +…+ vn-1)
C
(1+r) PVann. =
C
(1+r) PVann. =
1
(1+r)n
(1 + r)
r 1 –
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Annuities
PV of an annuity due
C
… C C C C
1 2 3 n-1 0 n
C PVann. = C
(1+r)1
C
(1+r)2
C
(1+r)3
C
(1+r)n-1 + + +…+ +
C = cash flow per period r = interest rate per period n = number of periods till maturity
C r PVann. due =
1 (1 + r)n
1 - (1 + r)
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Annuities
FV of an ordinary annuity
C (1+r)n-1 FVann. = C (1+r)n-2 C (1+r)2 C (1+r)1 C + + +…+ +
C r FVann. = [(1 + r)n – 1]
FV of an annuity due
C r FVann. = [(1 + r)n – 1] (1 + r)
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Perpetuities
PV of a perpetuity
A perpetuity is an annuity with infinite maturity.
C r PVper. =
1 (1 + r)n
1 -
When n (1 + r)n and 1 / (1 + r)n 0
C r
PVper. =
1
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Example - Annuity
You are purchasing a car from Continental Car Service. You are scheduled to take 3 annual installments of $4,000 per year. Given a rate of interest of 10%, what is the effective price you are paying for the car (i.e. what is the PV)?
4000 4000 4000
1 2 3 0
4,000
(1 + 0.10)1 Pricecar = + +
PVann. =
4,000
(1 + 0.10)2
4,000
(1 + 0.10)3
4,000
0.10
1
(1 + 0.10)3 1 –
Pricecar = $9,947.41
=
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Example - Annuity
What if Continental Car Service allows you to start your first installment payment 2 years from now?
4000 4000 4000
2 3 4 0
4,000
(1 + 0.10)2 Pricecar = + +
4,000
(1 + 0.10)3
4,000
(1 + 0.10)4
Pricecar = $9,043.10
0
1
0
(1 + 0.10)1 +
9,947.41 (1 + 0.10)1
Pricecar = = $9,043.10
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1/ Interest rates and bond prices
2/ Bond yields
3/ The yield curve
Chapter 6: Valuing Bonds
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Review
Balance Sheet
Assets
Use of funds Source of funds
Liabilities Bonds
Equity Stocks
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Source: Asset Allocation Advisor
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Source: NZX.com
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Bond investors
=
A bond is a security that obligates the issuer to make specified payments to the bondholder
Bond Pricing
90 90 90 90
2 3 4 0 1
Issuer
$1000 bond
1000
+
Principal value: paid at maturity
Coupon: fixed, % of principal
Maturity
Coupon: fixed, % of principal Coupon: fixed, % of principal Coupon: fixed, % of principal ?
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Bond Pricing
P = n
t=1 (1 + r)t
Ct
(1 + r)n
PP +
P = 2n
t=1 (1 + r/2)t
Ct/2
(1 + r/2)2n
PP +
Annual coupon payment:
Semiannual coupon payment:
PV = CFt n
t (1 + r)t _____
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PV = CFt n
t (1 + r)t _____
Bond Pricing
Maturity: n = 4
Cash flows: CF1 = CF2 = CF3 = 90,
CF4 = 90 + 1,000 = 1,090
90
(1 + 0.09)2 PVbond = + +
90
(1 + 0.09)3
1,090
(1 + 0.09)4
90
(1 + 0.09)1 +
PVbond = $1000
Interest rate: r = 9% Interest rate: r = 10%
90
(1 + 0.10)2 PVbond = + +
90
(1 + 0.10)3
1,090
(1 + 0.10)4
90
(1 + 0.10)1 +
PVbond = $968.30
Interest rate: r = 8%
90
(1 + 0.08)2 PVbond = + +
90
(1 + 0.08)3
1,090
(1 + 0.08)4
90
(1 + 0.08)1 +
PVbond = $1,033.12
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PV = CFt n
t (1 + r)t _____
Bond Pricing
Bond prices are inversely related to interest rates, i.e bonds exhibit interest rate risk.
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Interest Rate Risk
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
P
R
I
C
E
Interest rates (%)
Par value = $1,000, maturity = 15 years,
coupon rate = 10% paid annually
10
Premium r < coupon
Discount r > coupon
Par = Price
r = coupon
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Interest Rate Risk
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
P
R
I
C
E
Interest rate (%)
2YRS
15YRS
6YRS
Par value = $1,000, coupon rate = 10% paid annually
10
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Interest Rate Risk
The inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates are more pronounced for longer-term bonds than shorter-term bonds.
At r < coupon: premiumlong > premiumshort
At r > coupon: discountlong > discountshort
At r = coupon: pricelong = priceshort
For the same percentage change in interest rate, |%∆r| |%∆P|long > |%∆P|short
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Interest Rate Risk
Maturity 0 Bond price Par value
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
P
R
I
C
E
YEARS TO MATURITY
Premium prices
Discount prices
0
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Bond Yields
Yield-to-maturity (YTM):
Interest rate at which the present value of a bond’ CFs is equal to its price.
YTM at time of purchase (t=0) is equal to the realized rate of return (at t=T) if:
(1) All coupons are reinvested at the same rate as YTM0; and (2) The investor holds the bond to maturity;
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Bond Yields
2 3 4 0 1 r = 9% r = 9% r = 9% r = 9%
90 90 90 90
1,000
98.10 90*1.09
106.93 90*1.092
116.55 90*1.093
$1,411.58 $1,000
Investment Total income
CASE 1: No change in interest rates
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Bond Yields
2 3 4 0 1 r = 9% r = 9% r = 9% r = 9%
$1,411.58 $1,000
HPR = Total income
Investment
1/ What is the total rate of return over the 4-year period, i.e. holding period return?
Coupon income + price change
Investment =
HPR = $1,411.58 - $1,000
$1,000 = 41.16%
This is a 4-year return
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Bond Yields
2 3 4 0 1 r = 9% r = 9% r = 9% r = 9%
$1,411.58 $1,000
$1000 = $1,411.58
2/ What is the annual rate of return from investment?
(1 + r)4 = $1,411.58
$1,000
r = 1.411581/4 – 1 = 9% per annum
$1,000
* (1 + r)4 This is also the promised YTM when the bond was purchased 4 years ago.
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Bond Yields
r
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Bond Yields
2 3 4 0 1 r = 9% r = 9% r = 9% r = 5%
90 90 90 90
1,000
$1,000
CASE 2: A change in interest rates
1/ What is the HPR from the 4-year investment?
HPR =
90*(1.05)
103.01 90*(1.09)*(1.05)
$1,399.79
$1,399.79 - $1,000
$1,000 = 39.98% This is a 4-year
actual return
94.5
112.28 90 * (1.09)2 * (1.05)
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Bond Yields
CASE 2: A change in interest rates
1/ What is the HPR from the 4-year investment?
HPR = $1,399.79 - $1,000
$1,000 = 39.98%
$1000 = $1,399.79
2/ What is the annual rate of return from investment?
(1 + r)4 = $1,399.79
$1,000
r = 1.39981/4 – 1 = 8.77% per annum
* (1 + r)4
This is lower than the promised YTM
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Bond Yields
2 3 4 0 1 r = 9% r = 9% r = 9% r = 5%
90 90 90 90
1,000
$1,000
CASE 3: A rate change and early divestment
Sell P3 = ?
1/ What is the HPR from the 3-year investment?
HPR = Coupon income + price change
Investment
$1,038.10
90*(1.09) 98.10 90*(1.09)2 106.93
1090/1.05
$1,333.13
$1,333.13 - $1,000
$1,000 = 33.31%
This is a 3-year return
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Bond Yields
CASE 3: A rate change and early divestment
1/ What is the HPR from the 3-year investment?
HPR = $1,333.13 - $1,000
$1,000 = 33.31%
$1000 = $1,333.13
2/ What is the annual rate of return from investment?
(1 + r)3 = $1,333.13
$1,000
r = 1.33311/3 – 1 = 10.06% per annum
* (1 + r)3
why is it > YTM??
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Bond Yields
Try this at home:
CASE 4: rate change to 5% at year 2 and sell bond at year 3.
What is the annual rate of return?
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r = %CPI + rreal
Assume: %CPI = 3% and rrealNZ = 4% r = 3% + 4% = 7%
Example 4
$1000
$1070
0 1 10
$2000
…
$1070 / (1 + 0.07)1 $2000 / (1 + 0.07)10
$2000 / [(1 + 0.07) * (1 + 0.07) * … * (1 + 0.07)]
1000 = $2,000
(1 + r2010 ) * (1 + r2011) * … * (1 + r2119)
= 7%
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Our concerns between short-term and long-term bond investments include:
1/ The stability of the components in the risk-free interest rate, i.e. how we expect them to change in the future.
2/ Liquidity preference
LP indicates that long term rates have to pay a premium over short term rates because:
– Investors need a premium to compensate for the added price risk associated with long-term bonds.
– Borrowers are willing to pay higher rates on long-term debt to avoid refinancing risk.
Term Structure of Interest Rates
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Yields
Time to maturity
7%
Expectations of higher short-term rates
Liquidity premium
Term Structure of Interest Rates
r = %CPI + rreal + liquidity
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Term Structure of Interest Rates
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Term Structure of Interest Rates
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Default (Credit) risk: The risk that a bond issuer may default on its bonds.
Default Risk
r = %CPI + rreal + Liquidity + Default
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Review
Balance Sheet
Assets
Use of funds Source of funds
Bonds
CommonStocks
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1/ Stock markets
2/ Valuing common stocks
3/ Growth versus income stocks
Chapter 7: Valuing Stocks
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Common stocks represent ownership shares in a publicly held corporations.
Holders of common stocks
- Are owners of the firm;
- Are able to be involved in some of the firm’s management;
- Can vote to select the BOD; and
- Have residual claims against the firm’s assets.
Common Stocks
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Stock Market
Primary markets – New issues are sold.
• Seasoned issues: new shares offered by an already listed firm.
• Initial public offerings (IPOs): new shares offered to the public for the first time.
Secondary markets – Outstanding issues, i.e. stocks already sold to the
public, are traded.
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Stock Market
Why secondary stock markets are important?
Provide liquidity to investors who acquire securities in the primary market
• Helps issuers raise needed funds in the primary market since investors want liquidity
Help determine market pricing for new issues
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Stock Valuation
Equity Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow Techniques
Relative Valuation Techniques
Present value of • dividends (DDM) • free CF to equity • operating free CF
• Price/Earnings ratio (P/E) • Price/Cash flow ratio (P/CF) • Price/Book value ratio (P/BV) • Price/Sales ratio (P/S)
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Relative Valuation
Relative valuation focuses on how the market is currently valuing financial assets.
– This does not necessarily imply that current valuations are appropriate.
– The overall market or a particular industry can become seriously overvalued or undervalued for a period of time.
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Relative Valuation
Appropriate to use under two conditions:
– You have a good set of comparable entities.
• Similar size, risk, etc.
– The aggregate market or the relevant industry is not at a valuation extreme.
• It is fairly valued.
Should be used together with the DCF models to determine equity value.
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Price/Earnings Ratio
Measure investors’ attitude toward the firm’s earnings power
How many dollars investors are willing to pay for a dollar of expected earnings.
Average P/E ratio for IT industry
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
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Source: Cooper et al. (JF, 2001)
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
PV = n
t=1 (1 + r)t CFt PV =
n
t=1 (1 + r)t Dt
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
PV = n
t=1 (1 + r)t Dt
PV =
(1 + r)
D1 + (1 + r)2
D2 + (1 + r)3
D3 + … + (1 + r)n
Dn
where
PV = Intrinsic value of common stock at t = 0 r = Required rate of return for common stock Dt = Expected dividend for period t
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Constant growth (g)
D1 = D0(1 + g) D2 = D1(1 + g)
PV = (1 + r)
D0(1+g) +
(1 + r)2 +
(1 + r)3 + … +
(1 + r)n
D0(1+g)n D0(1+g)2 D0(1+g)3
Dt+1 = Dt(1 + g)
PV = (1 + r)
D1 + (1 + r)2
D2 + (1 + r)3
D3 + … + (1 + r)n
Dn
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Constant growth (g)
D1 = D0(1 + g) D2 = D1(1 + g)
PV = (1 + r)
D0(1+g) +
(1 + r)2 +
(1 + r)3 + … +
(1 + r)n
D0(1+g)n D0(1+g)2 D0(1+g)3
Dt+1 = Dt(1 + g)
PV = r - g D1
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Constant growth (g)
Example:
Stock A, D0 = $1, r = 0.10, g = 0.06
D1 = D0(1 + g) = $1*(1 + 0.06) = $1.06
r – g = 0.10 – 0.06 = 0.04
PVA = $1.06/0.04 = $26.50
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Constant growth (g)
Special case: g = 0 D0 = D1 = … = Dn
PV = r
D0 PV =
r E0
Assuming all earnings are paid out as dividends
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V(D4-D∞) = (r – g2)
D4 (1 + r)3
1
Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
2-stage growth
PV = (1 + r)
D0(1+g1) +
(1 + r)2 +
(1 + r)3 +
D0(1+g1)2 D0(1+g1)3 (r – g2)(1 + r)3
D0(1+g1)3(1+g2)
0 1 2 3 4 ∞
D1 D2 D3 D4 D∞
g1 g2
V(D1-D3) = 3
t=1 (1 + r)t Dt
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
2-stage growth
PV = (1 + r)
D0(1+g1) + … +
(1 + r)m +
D0(1+g1)m (r – g2)(1 + r)m
D0(1+g1)m(1+g2)
0 1 ... m m+1 ∞
D1 D… Dm Dm+1 D∞ g1 g2
V(1) = m
t=1 (1 + r)t Dt V(2) =
(r – g2) Dm+1
(1 + r)m 1
(1) (2)
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
2-stage growth
Example : Stock A, D0 = $1, r = 0.10, Growth rate in the next 3 years (g1) = 0.12, Growth rate in year 4 onward (g2) = 0.06.
0 1 2 3 4 ∞
D1=1.12
g1=0.12
D0=1
g2 =0.06
D1 = D0(1 + g1) = $1*(1 + 0.12) = $1.12 D2 = D0(1 + g1)2 = $1*(1 + 0.12)2 = $1.2544 D3 = D0(1 + g1)3 = $1*(1 + 0.12)3 = $1.4049 D4 = D3(1 + g2)= $1.4049*(1 + 0.06) = $1.4892
D2=1.25 D3=1.40 D4=1.49
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
2-stage growth
Example 2: Stock A, D0 = $1, r = 0.10,
g1=0.12 g2 =0.06
0 1 2 3 4 ∞
D1=1.12 D2=1.25 D3=1.40 D4=1.49
P = $4.57
+
Use D4 and the constant growth model to estimate the present value of all dividends from year 4 onwards. Then bring (discount) that value to time 0.
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
2-stage growth
Example : Stock A, D0 = $1, r = 0.10,
g1=0.12 g2 =0.06
0 1 2 3 4 ∞
D1=1.12 D2=1.25 D3=1.40 D4=1.49
P = $31.08
+ P3 = 1.49/(0.10 – 0.06)
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
2-stage growth
Example 2: Stock A, D0 = $1, r = 0.10, Growth rate in the next 3 years (g1) = 0.12, Growth rate in year 4 onward (g2) = 0.06.
D1 = D0(1 + g1) = $1*(1 + 0.12) = $1.12 D2 = D0(1 + g1)2 = $1*(1 + 0.12)2 = $1.2544 D3 = D0(1 + g1)3 = $1*(1 + 0.12)3 = $1.4049 D4 = D3(1 + g2)= $1.4049*(1 + 0.06) = $1.4892
P = (1 + .10)
1.12 +
(1 + .10)2 +
(1 + .10)3 +
1.2544 1.4049 (.10 – .06)(1 + .10)3
1.4892
P = 31.08 VD1-D3 VD4-D∞
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Multi-stage growth
PV = (1 + r)5
D4(1+g1) +
(1 + r)6 +
(1 + r)7 +
D4(1+g1)2 D4(1+g1)3 (r – g2)(1 + r)7
D4(1+g1)3(1+g2)
(1 + r)4
D4 +
0 5 6 7 8 ∞
D5 D6 D7 D8 D∞
g1 g2
4
D4
No dividend
V(D4-D7) = 7
t=4 (1 + r)t Dt V(D8-D∞) =
(r – g2) D8
(1 + r)7 1
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Multi-stage growth
PV = (1 + r)m+1
Dm(1+g1) + … +
(1 + r)n +
Dm(1+g1)n-m (r – g2)(1 + r)n
Dm(1+g1)n-m(1+g2)
(1 + r)m
Dm +
0 m+1 … n n+1 ∞
Dm+1 D… Dn Dn+1 D∞ g1
(2)
m
Dm
No dividend
V(1) = n
t=m (1 + r)t Dt V(2) =
(r – g2) Dn+1
(1 + r)n 1
g2
(1)
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Multi-stage growth
Example : Stock A, D4 = $1, r = 0.10, Growth rate in the following 3 years (g1) after year 4 = 0.12, Growth rate in year 8 onward (g2) = 0.06.
D5 = D4(1 + g1) = $1*(1 + 0.12) = $1.12 D6 = D4(1 + g1)2 = $1*(1 + 0.12)2 = $1.2544 D7 = D4(1 + g1)3 = $1*(1 + 0.12)3 = $1.4049 D8 = D7(1 + g2)= $1.4049*(1 + 0.06) = $1.4892
VA = (1 + .10)5
1.12 +
(1 + .10)6 +
(1 + .10)7 + 1.2544 1.4049
(.10 – .06)(1 + .10)7
1.4892
(1 + .10)4 1.00
+
VA = 21.91 VD4-D7 VD8-D∞
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What if the analyzed company is not paying dividend, i.e. Dt = 0? PV = 0?
Alternative model: PV = n
t=1 (1 + r)t FCFEt
PV = n
t=1 (1 + r)t Dt
Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
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Return on equity (ROE) = EPS / Book equity per share
Payout ratio: % of earnings paid out as dividends
Plowback ratio: % of earnings retained by the firm
Sustainable growth rate (g): Steady rate at which a firm can growth; Growth rate that can be sustained without additional equity issues, i.e. all increases in equity come from retained earnings.
g = ROE * plowback ratio
Growth Stocks
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Example: Blue Skies E1 = $5, r = 12%, ROE = 20% What is stock price of Blue Skies?
Case 1: payout = 100% D1 = 100% * E1 = 1 * $5 = $5 g = ROE * (1 – payout) = 0.20 * (1 – 1) = 0 P0 = $5 / (0.12 – 0) = $5 / 0.12 = $41.67
Case 2: payout = 60% D1 = 60% * E1 = 0.60 * $5 = $3 g = ROE * (1 – payout) = 0.20 * (1 – 0.60) = 0.08 P0 = $3 / (0.12 – 0.08) = $3 / 0.04 = $75
P0 = D1 / (r – g)
Growth Stocks
PV of growth opportunities = Pgrowth – Pno growth
= $75 - $41.67 = $33.33
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P0 = D1 / (r – g)
Growth Stocks
PV of growth opportunities = Pgrowth – Pno growth
= $0 ?????
Example: Blue Skies E1 = $5, r = 12%, ROE = 12% What is stock price of Blue Skies?
Case 1: payout = 100% D1 = 100% * E1 = 1 * $5 = $5 g = ROE * (1 – payout) = 0.12 * (1 – 1) = 0 P0 = $5 / (0.12 – 0) = $5 / 0.12 = $41.67
Case 2: payout = 60% D1 = 60% * E1 = 0.60 * $5 = $3 g = ROE * (1 – payout) = 0.12 * (1 – 0.60) = 0.048 P0 = $3 / (0.12 – 0.048) = $3 / 0.072 = $41.67
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g = ROE * (1 - dividend payout ratio) g = (1 – D1/E1) * ROE
(1) D1/E1 = 1, i.e. all earnings are paid out ROE is irrelevant because g = 0 and P0 = E1 / r
(2) ROE = r , i.e. P0 = D1/[r – (1 – D1/E1)*ROE] P0 = D1/[r * (1 – 1 + D1/E1)] P0 = E1 / r How much the firm pays out is irrelevant because it does not affect the stock price.
Growth Stocks
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Growth stocks must have (1) positive retained earnings, and (2) the retained earnings are reinvested to earn a higher rate of return
(ROE) than required by investors (r).
Growth Stocks
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STOCK VALUATION
Example:
A common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity. Investors require 12% rate of return. The stock has an P/E ratio of 9; and its expected EPS is $3. What is the stock worth?
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Recommended end-of chapter questions/problems:
• Chapter 5: – Questions: 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 18
– Problems: 22, 25, 30, 32, 34, 40, 48, 51, 60-64
• Chapter 6: – Questions: 1, 2
– Problems: 11, 12, 17, 18, 23, 25
• Chapter 7: – Questions: 1, 6
– Problems: 13, 16, 18, 31, 32