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Planning during uncertain timesApril 16, 2020

Webinar

© 2020 Deloitte Consulting AG


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IntroductionCurrently discussing:

IntroductionPlanning during uncertain times

Respond Recover Thrive Q&A


IndustriesJob roles

Consumer

Energy, Resources & Industrials

Financial Services

Lice Sciences & Health Care

Technology, Media & Telecommunication

Head Planning & Performance

Finance DirectorGroup Controller

Manager Strategy & Planning

Head of Sales

Head Finance Transformation

CIOCFO

Consultant

Senior Research Consultant

IT Finance Director

Director Consolidation & Reporting

Project manager

HR Analytics

Finance System Analyst

Head Digital & Analytics

Controller

Solution Engineer

Finance Analyst

Manager Business Development & Planning

CEO

Sales Director

Global Mobility Manager



Source: Deloitte (April 16, 2020). Webinar: Planning during uncertain times. Zurich: Deloitte Consulting AG.


Planning during uncertain times

Currently discussing:


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UncertaintyAmbiguity

Disruption

We’re operating in fast moving, disruptive times

Volatility




• Respond to the immediate

challenges

• Evaluating impact on financial

statements

• Enabling virtual working in

finance (e.g. virtual close)

Last few weeks Short term

• Identify impacts and measures

• Think in terms of scenarios,

including a stress test

• Assess, decide and monitor to

take the right course of actions

Respond

• Keep focusing on scenario planning

in early stages of recovery

• Evaluate the return to normal and

anticipate potential changes to your

business models to prepare for the

future

Mid term

Recover

• Implement new and adjusted

business models, supported by agile,

connected planning capabilities

• Prepare yourself to navigate through

uncertainty in the future

Long term

Thrive

Agile, connected planning

Scenarioplanning




RespondCurrently discussing:


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External impact

Cross-functional scenarios

• Plan for best, expected and worst case plus a ‘stress test’

• Work cross-functionally, across organisational layers, with a focus on critical business drivers

Scenario planning is required to respond

• Inventorise cost-savings andinvestments to address current market needs or opportunities

• Three categories : 1. low-hanging (e.g.

discretionary)2. significant (e.g. capex)3. complex (e.g. business model)

Internal measures

Savings and investments

Scenario simulation

Bring it together

• Combine, simulate and visualise

• Settle on desired way forward, balancing short and long term

Monitor and iterate

Keep track and adjust

• Monitor the external impact and result of measures

• Re-plan and re-evaluate when necessary




Cx-Sim provides a pragmatic means for re-forecasting

Impacts & measures

Actual data

Business units / operational units / legal entities

ActualImpacts and measures

Budget 2020 or Forecast

Projection

Unit simulation and steering of measures

Group impact analysis, real-time simulation and steering

P&L and

Cash

Impacts & measuresImpacts & measuresImpacts and measures

12 months




Cx-Sim allows for efficient collection and simulation

BUs / entities



Leadership team to

assess impact from

subsidiary input and to

decide on measures

(Bi-)weekly

process

Subsidiaries to

implement measures on

a local level

Subsidiaries to update

their simulation scenarios

(updated FCs) and to

submit their latest data

Subsidiaries to review

Actuals impact on

Plan/FC and to revise

their simulation

scenarios

Distribution

Update import sheets

with actual data if

subsidiaries have no

direct access to Cx-Sim

Import latest actual data

to Cx-Sim application

After month end reporting:

Collection

Simulation and decision

Execution

Last plan/FC

Actual update

Review and revision

Group


RecoverCurrently discussing:


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Predict how economic, industry, and consumer trends will impact future business outcomes

Identify inflection points, headwinds and tailwinds and explain when demand/business will take up again

Identify benchmark KPIs to analyse

Up to 85% of business performance is influenced by external factors

Monitor external indicatorsHR dataActual volumes (5-7Y)

Demographics

Consumer sentiment

Buying power / pricing

Financials

Promotions and prices

Macroeconomic data

SFDC pipeline

Weather

Internal

External



Most companies might have a blind spot when it comes to understanding future events if they only consider internal data


ThriveCurrently discussing:


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Input

Forecasted financial budgets

Internal leading indicators

External leading indicators

Action plan(s) for the business

Convert budgets and leading indicators into action plans for the business through a quantification model

• Leading indicators

• Trigger points (and their revenueimpact)

• Interventions per trigger point

• Impact per intervention

• Governance

Quick and adequate response to any future economic downturn!

High-quality solutions for these 5 key concepts serve as the critical foundation for the model to work successfully

+ =1

2

3

4

5



Financial impact per intervention

A number of trigger points (and their revenue impact)

Interventions per trigger point

OutputThe model (throughput)


Interventions along six base levers typically enable significant cost savings

StrategicTactical

Spend reduction Business process optimisation

Infrastructure optimisation

Service delivery alignment

Business model redesign

Investment/ project

rationalisation

Respond Recover Thrive




Program levers Themes Interventions

Spend reduction • Spend on third-party products/services

1. Reduce travel and subsistence spend

2. Reduce marketing and content subscription spend

3. Reduce entertainment spend

4. Rationalise learning events and trainings

5. Rationalise recruiting events

Business process optimisation

• Robotics and intelligent automation

• Business and process simplification

6. Capitalise on robotics and intelligent automation opportunities

Infrastructure optimisation

• Facility footprint

• Technology landscape

7. Reduce number of software licenses

8. Standardise and simplify IT landscape

9. Right-size office locations in line with reduced headcount

Service delivery alignment

• Size and shape of business units

• Near- and offshoring

• In- and outsourcing

10.Reduce compensation and benefits in line with firm performance

11.Right-size headcount in line with forecasted demand

12.Leverage labour arbitrage

Business model redesign

• Product/solution portfolio

• Client portfolio

13.Rationalise non-priority/low demand product/solutions portfolio

14.Rationalise non-priority/low profitability clients

15. Invest in key clients and strategically relevant products/solutions/assets

Investment/project rationalisation

• Slow spending on negotiable investments

16.Review existing programs and large-scale investments

Strategic

Tactical

16 interventions tailored to a specific firm




Bring people, plans and data together into one harmonised process

Bridge the gap from strategy to execution across the whole organisation

Include predictive engines (including external data) to predict an objective market driven baseline

Forecasts should make use of all available knowledgeConnect insights across the organisation and drive objective and automated decision-making by leveraging master algorithms, agile cloud based solutions and data

Leverage data and technology

FinanceCFO

Sales/commercialCRO

MarketingCMO

Supply ChainCOO

Human Resources

CHRO

Incentive & reward

planning

Sales forecasting

Demand planning

Comp. modelling

Workforce planning

Income statement

forecast

Balance sheet &

Cash flow forecast

Territory planning

Quota planning

Pricing & promotion

Marketing perfor-mance

Supply planning

S&OP

Supplier collabo-ration

Talent planning

Long range planning

Capex planning

Revenue & OPEX

planning




Respond

Mid term

Recover

Long term

Thrive

Agile, connected planning

Scenarioplanning

How to get started?

Cx-SimFinance

CFOSales/commercialCRO

MarketingCMO

Supply ChainCOO

Human Resources

CHRO

Incentive & reward planning

Sales Forecasting

Demand Planning

Comp. modelling

Workforce Planning

Income statement forecast

Balance sheet &

Cash flow forecast

Territory Planning

Quota planning

Pricing & promotion

Marketing performanc

e

Supply Planning

S&OP

Supplier Collabo-ration

Talent planning

Long range planning

Capex Planning

Revenue & OPEX

planning



Last few weeks Short term


Thank you!See you next month.

Webinar 4 – May 14, 2020, 16:00 - 17:00 CETPlanning and forecasting excellence in the experience economy.Discover how technology and visual analytics can empower the forecasting and reporting experience.


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Planning & Forecasting ExcellenceCONNECT | PREDICT | EXPLORE

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