webinar: climate services for smallholder farmers and pastoralists in africa
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Jim Hansen, CCAFS Flagship 2 Leader, IRIWebinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa23 November 2016
Setting the Scene: A Global Perspective on Climate Services
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIESWEATHER
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
CLIMATE CHANGE
From weather to climate services
• All time scales relevant
• Information needs depend on decisions
• With increasing lead time: Decisions more context-
and farmer-specific
Information more uncertain, complex
Therefore scope of services needed increases
From weather to climate services
• Climate services more than adding climate products to weather services Generation
Translation
Communication
Application
1-Minute History of Climate Services
• 1910-20s Sir Gilbert Walker – Southern Oscillation• 1960s Jacob Bjerkens – connected El Nino with Southern Oscillation• 1982 El Nino
Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
• 1980-90s Climate-agriculture systems analysis in Australia • 1997 El Nino Surge of research and investment➤• 1997 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)• 2009 World Climate Conference-3 UN Global Framework for Climate ➤
Services (GFCS)• 2011 First ICCS Climate Services Partnership (CSP)➤• From climate research + “applications” to “climate services”
What will it take for climate services to work for smallholder farmers and pastoralists – at scale?
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on climate-related information Farmers Government and institutions
Capacity to provide actionable information
Balance scalable services with context-specific needs
Institutional arrangements to sustain co-development of services
Evidence to support and guide investment
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: Interactive rural radio
• Radio and mobile phones complement face-to-face communication
• Combining radio and mobile phones Bulk SMS Interactive Voice Response (IVR) “Beep-4-...” services
• Programming: Call-in shows, panel discussions, village dialogues, dramas
• Listener groups• Gender-sensitive programming• Emerging area, supported by evidence of
impact of Participatory Radio Campaigns
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: PICSA
• Developed by University of Reading, with CCAFS, IRI
• Piloted in Kenya, Senegal, Mali, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Malawi
• Extensive use of local historic data and forecasts, graphs
• Mainstream into agricultural extension, intermediaries, through training
• Combine with radio, ICT
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: PICSA
• Understand historical climate Trends and variability Derived seasonal quantities Crop requirements and risks
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: PICSA
• Understand historical climate• Participatory planning
Current livelihood system Options to improve system
Climate services for farmers: PICSA
• Understand historical climate• Participatory planning• Downscaled seasonal forecasts
Training on new probability formats Adjust seasonal planning
• Depends on information that NMS often don’t routinely provide.
Building NMS capacity to provide actionable climate information
• Farmers’ relevance challenges: Local spatial scale Season characteristics: timing, spells, water
balance, extremes Consistency between seasonal forecast and
historical variability Transparent communication of variability,
accuracy
• NMS capacity challenges: Parent ministry mandate Human & financial resources Cost of responding to user requests Sparse historic observations Data policy, incentives
?
Building NMS capacity to provide actionable climate information
• Enhancing National Climate Services
• Satellite + station, ~5 km grid, >30-50 year complete record
• Production and dissemination of an expanding suite of information products through online “maprooms”
• NMHS capacity development mode
• Expanding ENACTS and connecting with PICSA communication processes
STATION
BLENDED
SATELLITE
Balancing scalable services with context-specific needs?
• The dilemma
• Methodology responsive to local needs, yet scalable PICSA
ENACTS
• Institutionalize farmers’ voice
• Early wins that are relevant to many
• Iterative assessment and refinement processes
Webinar on ‘Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists Africa’
Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture Project Highlights
Kagabo Désiré Nsengiyumvand
a Gloriose
23rd November 2016
Project short history
• Funded by USAID
• Coordinated by CCAFS
• Implementing partners include:
Key agencies: RAB, Meteo-Rwanda and their parent Ministries
Technical partners: CIAT, IRI, ILRI, ICRAF, U of Reading
• September 2015 through 2019
• Implemented across the country
• 4 districts were covered in Year One and 6 districts targeted in year Two
Aim of the project
To benefit nearly one million farmers by 2019, and transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and
national economy through climate services and improved climate risk management
Key project activitiesOutcome 1: Climate Services for Farmers1. Baseline information about
farmers’ climate information use, access and needs
2. Deliver climate information services for agriculture to nearly One Million People nationwide (through PICSA and other tools)
3. Strengthen capacity and incorporate user feedback on climate information services
4. Develop, implement and assess a new ICT or media-based climate service communication tools
5. Incorporate probability-of-exceedance products into PICSA process and training materials
Outcome 2: Climate Services for Government Planning
1. Develop and test a water balance-based tool for early assessment of drought impacts on crop production and food security
2. Develop and test a tool for location-specific optimization of planting date
Outcome 3: Climate Information Provision1. Build capacity of Meteo
Rwanda by providing innovative climate services based on user feedback
2. Refining gridded climate data products
3. Develop climate service products and tools based on users’ needs
4. Conduct operation research to improve understanding of Rwanda’s climate and its forecasting
Outcome 4: National Climate Services Governance1. Form a climate
service advisory committee representing key agencies
2. Develop Terms of Reference for the Advisory Committee, including the development of sustainable national climate services governance process beyond the duration of the project
Research methodology and approaches
1. Use of decentralised agricultural extension model “Twigire Muhinzi” 2. Partnerships with intermediary organizations (agriculture extension agencies,
value chain actors, NGOs, private sector, etc.) 3. Use of communication channels based on ICT, media (e.g. radio, tv, etc.) 4. Use of a multi-disciplinary and participatory approach (e.g. PICSA) to deliver
climate services information5. Capacity building of government agencies, NGOs and farmers6. Development of climate services products tailored to end users’ needs
Channeling climate services information through a decentralized agricultural extension model
Preliminary results
52 % (1,328)Male Farmers
29,736 Farmers (12,786 Males, 16,950 Females )
83% of 2559 farmers reaching 14 farmers
through farmer-to-farmer communication
Preliminary results
4Districts
48 Farmer Promoters, 4district agronomists, 12 sector agronomists
and 12 SEDOs
2,559 Farmers
48% (1,231) Female Farmers
Dissemination of climate services through PICSA
• Trainees to understand historical climate Trends and variability Derived seasonal quantities Crop requirements and risks
Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d)
• Understand historical climate• Participatory planning
Current livelihood system Options to improve system
Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d)
• Understand historical climate• Participatory planning• Downscaled seasonal forecasts
Training on new probability formats Adjust seasonal planning
Climate information provision: Extending ENACTS
• Derived agromet quantities: Season onset, cessation,
duration Frequency of damaging dry
spells; wet, heat, cold extremes Growing degree-days Water balance, WRSI
• Seasonal forecasts: Statistically downscaled Same derived quantities Full probability distribution In context of historic climate
Success stories
• 28 “expert trainers” in the PICSA approach contributed to train 72 (33% female) FP, SEDOs and sector agronomists
• Farmer Promoters trained their fellows 2,559 farmers (48% female)• More than 97% of respondents (206) as a result of the PICSA training said:
confident about their farming and livelihood decision-making expect to improve their household food security and income see farming as more of a business than previously feel better prepared to cope with bad seasons caused by the weather
• 83% of respondents shared the information on average to 14 people with peers outside of their households
Lessons from Rwanda experience
• Climate services builds on Rwanda’s innovative Twigire Muhinzi extension model
• Rwanda’s open data policy• Integrate innovative good practices:
Overcome data poverty Strengthen capacity for supply and effective demand of climate services
Balance local relevance, with scalability
• Legacy of sustained capacity and governance
Klik op het pictogram als u een afbeelding wilt toevoegenThank you for the attention
Outline
I. Climate Data as the Foundation for Climate Information Services(CIS)
II. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data and Information Products in Africa
III. The ENACTS Approach
IV. Applications
On past, present, and future climate is one of the critical inputs
Climate Information
Provided the required climate information products
Climate Services
Foundation for delivery of climate services
Climate Data
Climate- Resilient
Development
Necessary to manage current climate variability and adapt to climate change
I. Climate Data as the Foundation for CIS
Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services
Good data: Strong foundation
Reliable climate information products and services
Climate Data
Climate Services
Climate Data
Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services
Bad/No data: Weak foundation
Unreliable climate information products and services
Climate Data
Climate Services
Climate Data
http://www.vareen.com/Travels/Brighton.htm
II. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa
1. Number of weather stations not adequate over many parts Africa, and it has been declining in many places
Declining investment Conflicts
Declining volunteer stations
Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa
2. Serious gaps in observations (missing data)
3. Questionable data quality
III. The ENACTS Approach
• ENACTS = Enhancing National Climate Services
• Strives to simultaneously improve availability, access and use of climate information.
• Works with NMHS to quality-control all available station data and combine them with satellite and reanalysis products.
• The main focus of ENACTS is creation of reliable climate information products for local decision-making.
The Three Pillars of ENACTS
Improve Availability• Build capacity of NMHS• Quality Control station data• Combine station data with proxies• Improve seasonal forecast
E N A C T S
Enhance Access• Install IRI Data Library
•Develop online tools for data analysis and visualization
• Create mechanisms for data sharing
Promote UseEngage users: • Raise awareness • Build capacity of users to understand and use climate info• Involve users in product development
ENACTS: Major Outputs
• Over 30/50-years of climate time series for every 4km grid across each country:o Now data available where there are no stations
• Installation of the IRI Data Library at NMHSo A powerful tool for generating climate information
• Unprecedented online access to information products:o Satisfies the needs of many userso Overcomes (partly) the challenges of data access
• Built capacity at NMHS and some user communities
ENACTS Countries
ENACTS Countries:EthiopiaGambiaGhanaMadagascarMaliRwandaTanzaniaZambiaKenyaUgandaMalawi
ENACTS Countries
IV. Examples of Applications
Agriculture-RwandaClimate Services for Agriculture: Empowering Farmers to Manage Risk and Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda• Funded by USAID Rwanda Mission($6M);• Climate information specifically for small-holder farmers;• Builds on ENACTS data data and products:- would have been difficult
without ENACTS.
Examples of Applications
Health:- Ethiopia, Tanzania, RwandaImpact evaluation for Malaria Interventions•Evaluates the impact/contribution of climate in malaria control interventions of the PMI(Presidents’ Malaria Initiative);
•Funded by PMI-USAID;
•Uses ENACTS data and products at different administrative levels
Examples of Applications
Research: Ethiopia• The Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency(NMA) was
the 1st to Implement ENACTS;
• Over the last three years NMA has provided ENACTS data to many students from different universities across the country;
• Many of these research activities would have been difficult without ENACTS data that is available for nay part of the country.
Good Practices and Challenges on Borana Indigenous Weather Forecasting Services
By Ayal Desalegn
Presentation outline
1. Purpose of the Research
2. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology
3. Indigenous weather forecast System
4. Findings of the research Abiotic and Biotic climate forecasting system Forecast information dissemination & socioeconomic
preparations Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting
The purpose of the Research
• This research assess the nature of biotic and abiotic Borana weather forecasting systems
• Evaluate the precision and credibility of different indigenous weather forecasting systems
Description of the Study area and the research Methodology
• The study was conducted in Borana (in CCAFS’s learning site)
• The region is dominated by a semi-arid weather with a bi-modal rainfall regime
• About 59 % of the precipitation occurs from March to May and 27 % from September to November
• The area suffer from surface and underground water
• Pastoralism is the main economic activity in the study area
Description of the Study area and the research Methodology Cont’
• There livelihood is climate sensitive
• In Borana the frequency and magnitude of drought has been increasing over the last three decades
• Drought and its attendant physical, biological and epidemiological adverse effects are responsible for substantial damage and loss to herders asset
• Borana herders are vulnerable to climate change and variability. Because they have neither objective adaptive capacity nor subjective adaptive capacity
Description of the Study area and the research Cont’
• In this research mixed research method was used• Data was collected using questionnaire survey, focus group discussion, overt
observation and interview• Various stakeholders such as Ethnobotanist, veterinarian, Borana indigenous
weather forecasters (Uchu and Urgi Elaltus), community key informants, sample households and NMSA were source of data for this study
Indigenous weather forecast System• The idea and practice of indigenous weather forecasting is inbuilt in
many cultures and has been established after long years of observation
• Indigenous weather forecast is the main source of meteorological information for the Borana herders since time immemorial
• The practical utilization of indigenous weather forecasting systems builds herders’ resiliency capacity to climatic shocks
Their agricultural decisions, such as the timing of planting, rangeland management, herd composition and number, are highly interlinked with anticipated climate phenomenon
Indigenous weather forecast System
In Borana weather forecast is made using Abiotic and Biotic Weather Forecast indicators• Celestial body readings • Intestinal reading• Plant body language readings • Animal body language readings
In all forecasting systems there is no special ritual activity or any food or sexual restrictions
Astrological weather forecasting • Star-moon alignment (Lemi)
• Geometrical alignment of celestial bodies (Bussan)
• The apparent size of the stars (Kormi Mado)
• Apparent movement of the star (Bekalcha…)
Wind speed and direction
Rainbow (Muna Garti)
Type of cloud cover
Intestinal Reading
• Large intestine (Kechuma)
• Small intestine
• Lump node (Kabello)
• Blood vessel (vein)
Flower abundance and timing of Tedecha (acacia), Ret (Aloe) treesThe activities of cattle, squirrel (Tuka), bees, ants, tones of hyena screaming and bird song
System of Disseminating weather Forecasts
• The Borana herders forecast and share weather information using well organized cultural networks
• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus are in charge of forecasting weather and disseminating information, but do not have an obligation to do so and are not paid
• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus communicates weather information to community elders and heads of Geda who then disseminate it by summoning people for urgent meetings
System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts Cont’
• Alternatively, information is announced in market places, water points and village settlements
• DAs and NGOs also disseminate the forecast information• Interested people can personally go to the houses of experts and ask
for weather information so that their contacts can receive and transfer the same information
Responses to the weather forecastingBased on the disseminated forecast information the Borana herders take coping and adaptation measures such as:• Strengthening area enclosure through community bylaw• Saving water and grass• Preparing livestock medicine (traditional traditional and modern sources)• Storing hay• Sending scouts and migrating with animals to water and pasture abundant areas• Destocking• Reducing expenditure• Changing schedules of social and cultural festivities such as wedding
Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting
• The precision and credibility of all modes of traditional weather forecast steadily declining due to repeated faulty predictions
• However, still there are Elaltus’ who commands high respect among the Borana herders (e.g. Kalicha Qoncher)
• The number of Indigenous weather forecaster (experts) have decreased over time in their localities
Credibility of Indigenous Weather ForecastingPoor documentation
Oral based knowledge transfer system
Influence of religion and modern education
Aging and premature death of Indigenous experts
Expansion of alcoholism
Changing behaviour and extinction of biotic indictors
Identified as the major causes undermining the vitality of traditional climate forecast
Recommendation • Traditional wisdom could serve as a starting point to scientifically study
the relationship between various signs and implied climate outcomes
• Before traditional weather forecasting completely disappears, a remedial action should be carried out to prevent irreversible loss of intangible cultural heritage
• Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK and integrating with instrumental forecasting can improve the accuracy and resilience of herders.
Thank You !
USE OF CLIMATE INFORMATION BY SMALL FARM-HOLDER TO INCREASE RESILICIENCY IN FOOD
INSECURITY : example of Kaffrine, Senegal in west Africa.
Dr Ousmane NDIAYEAgence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie
(ANACIM)
Kaffrine in Sénégal
BUILDING A TEAM OF STAKEHOLDERS : MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH.
National Level : National Weather Service (ANACIM) Ministry of agriculture (DA) Initiative Prospective Agriculture and Rural (IPAR) Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE) national agricultural research institute (ISRA) National department of water resource management (DGPRE) ENDA Energie
Local extension services and NGO in Kaffrine : agricultural advisers and extension (ANCAR) Service Départemental du développement Rural (SDDR), NGO : Volunteers from Red Cross (CR), Africare (PRODIAK), World Vision (WV),
Farmers organizations : National Farmers (Japandoo, CNCR, FONGS, … ), Individual farmers, Organization of women producers (GPF), Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation (CPSA)
Communication : community and rural radio, National TV, Private radios and TVs (Sud FM, Wal Fadjri, )
Building on local knowledge:
BUILDING TRUST FOR LONG TERM PARTNERSHIP THROUGH INDIGENEOUS KNOWLEDGE
Building on local knowledge:High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of their indicators “Stronger monsoon”Doing quite the same thing BUTBetter observing systemMore reliable storage capacity (numbers, maps, computers, …)
« When the wind change direction to fetch the rain » = Wind change from harmatan to monsoon during onset
• Field preparation : • Selecting the crop :• Planting :• Weeding :• Applying fertilizer,
pesticide, …• Harvesting :• Storage :
FinanceTechnologyHeritageSociologyHabitsBeliefsEnvironment
Climate/weather
DOCUMENTING FARMERS DECISION SYSTEM : WHAT DECISONS FARMERS are MAKING TO MANAGE THEIR CROPPING SYSTEM AND WHY ?
WHAT WHY
Seasonal forecast varietiesOnset forecast farm preparation
Nowcasting flooding saving life (thunder)Daily forecast use of fertilizer / pesticideTen-day forecast weeding, field work
EvaluationLessons drawn
Training workshopIndigenous knowledgeDiscussion and meetings
Field Visits
10 days experts meeting : monitoring the season
Ten-day forecast optimum harvesting period
Before During the Crop season Maturity/end
CLIMATE SERVICES DELIVEREDAND ACTIVITIES
team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
“KNOWLEDGE SHOULD PRECEDE ACTION”Farmer in kaffrine
TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : “WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”
Clim
ate information
Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting
Local working Group (Customize Climate information)
Farmers Agriculture
LivestockLocal
authority
Extensionsservices
ForestryCommunity
radio
Seed growers
Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin
Local Pluri-disciplinary
Working G
roupC
omm
unity
Pest DiseaseControl
Formal document establishing the GTP by local authority
Network of community radios used to disseminate climate inormation
First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous
knowledge)Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast
(tailored for specific user needs in local language)Long term and multi-stakeholders partnership (each
institution has part of the solution for food security)Communicating the forecast in easy to use term
(easy to understand, can translate into action and to be evaluated)Dynamic process : need to better understand
farmers decision system (farmers active participation : rain guage,
indigenous knowledge, evaluation of forecast and activities …)
WHAT DID WE LEARN
CONCLUSION OR CHALLENGES Spatial scale of the forecast : down to farm scaling-up other sites (government representative demand) Offer Alternative :
dry (bad news !) =>give them hope (climate insurance, alternative) wet but there is no extra resources : so what ?
SOLUTION : Offering comprehensive whole package with varieties of
partners (engage seed/fertilizer producers, bank, corporation, … )
① Climate services (forecast + technology => advices)② Climate insurance (dry/bad forecast + courage)③ Access to finance, resources (wet//good forecast)
