PROFIT THIS FOOTBALL SEASON

It’s that time of year again when the new Domestic and European Football League seasons kick into gear.

And there’s no better time for me to introduce you to some strategies which will increase your chances of profiting from August to April.

The majority of the concepts will be familiar to you, and that I suppose is because they work. This is by no means an exhaustive list, I want to share with you what has profited for me consistently over seasons gone by. So let’s kick off.

RESEARCH

Your success this season will be in direct proportion to the quality of your research. It’s that simple. I’ve mentioned my betting research template before and it works ideally with www.soccerstats.com , seeing as we are focussing predominantly on the Major European Leagues.

I’ve written a great introduction to Research which can be found at our new dedicated website www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. This introduction takes you through my personalised basic Betting Research Template which is to be used in conjunction with www.soccerstats.com and www.futbol24.com( the latter to get the head to heads).

This betting research template provides a great overview into both football teams’ form . The template could be made even more thorough with a look at the following:-

Team news. Key absentees will affect teams. Previous and Following Matches. This specifically refers to moments in the Season when

teams have had, or will have, key matches in competitions such as the Champions League, Europa League, even the F.A.Cup. Time and again we have seen teams such as Manchester United “gamble” with a weaker team prior to an important Champions League match, and on occasion struggle to get the kind of result they would have got with their strongest team on the pitch. Similarly, teams can be a little jaded directly after a mid week Champions League match.

A look at the goals scored in the last 5 matches. Are more goals scored /conceded in the First Half or Second Half? This important information can really help you especially if you employ what I will discuss later – DELAY-REACT-TRADE strategies.

Research is the cornerstone to your success because it will provide us with the “ betting angles” into specific football matches. These angles could include

Laying a specific outcome. Backing the 0-0 as we believe there will be tight early exchanges. Backing under/over 2.5 goals. Backing a correct score. Backing or Laying a Halftime Outcome.

The majority of the techniques I want to share with you come under the umbrella of what I call “ DELAY-REACT-TRADE” (DRT) betting. What exactly is DRT betting?

DELAY-REACT-TRADE

With this betting strategy we will be looking to exploit football matches, preferably at www.betfair.com, which go in-play. Quite simply the betting market will follow the football match as goals are scored, or no goals are scored. The betting market will react accordingly to events within a match.

This is the DELAY part of the DRT Betting Strategy. No longer are we going to be backing a team or outcome before a match has kicked off ( in the Pre-match betting market as it is termed.) In certain circumstances it is wise to wait and see what will unfurl during the early periods of a football match.

Why delay? My reason to delay entry into the betting market is primarily to create value bets.

As a backer we want higher odds than are available in the pre-match betting market. How can we get higher odds? Quite simply a team’s odds will increase if that team concedes a goal or has a player sent off. The market reacts negatively by pushing up the odds.

As a layer at www.betfair.com, we want lower odds than that available in the pre match betting market. How can we get lower odds? Quite simply a team’s odds will decrease if that team scores a goal or their opponents lose a man to a red card. The market here reacts positively by lowering the odds.

DRT BETTING WILL HELP YOU BACK 1.07 SHOTS AT 29/1 ( and to remind you, when you back a 1.07 shot for £10 you will win 70p if that team wins. Back that team with the same £10 at 29/1 and you’ll win £290 if that team wins!)

Here’s how you can create these kinds of value bets yourself.

Let me take you through a pre season friendly match where this scenario played out.

DELAY

The match was a pre -season friendly between Arsenal and a Malaysia XI. Arsenal were backable pre match at 1.07 odds.

RESEARCH –THE KEY ( AS EVER!)

I did my research here and note how poor Arsenal are in Pre –Season. There is a reasonable chance of them conceding first. They have not won in their last 6 pre season matches.

My first decision therefore is to DELAY entry into the match odds market because I was hoping that either Arsenal would

Concede first Take a long period of time to score.

If either of the above happen during the match, Arsenal’s pre match odds will increase, and hopefully to such a level that these 1.07 shots actually become backable.

Here’s the first major incident during the match.

Malaysia XI take the lead just before halftime. The score at halftime remains at 1-0.

The second half begins.

The market becomes nervous because Arsenal are not playing like 1.07 shots at all.

Of course, yours truly is quietly smiling and wondering when to enter the betting market.

Here’s the key to big returns when you delay .

The longer you wait to place your bet, the bigger the odds, but the longer you wait, the shorter the time period for the team a not winning ( Arsenal in this case )to win.

You will be able to create huge odds bets the nearer to 90 minutes that you bet. The one concern is when to enter into the betting market.

In our example, the later into the match , the bigger Arsenal’s odds will be. The Price /Volume graph below shows you the escalation in Arsenal’s odds as we enter the 80th minute of the match and it’s still 1-0 to the Malaysia XI. Time is running out!

0 minutes - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -90 minutes

The bottom left of this graph represents the start of the match. The small, barely distinguishable jump in the odds ( the small arrow above) represents the time in the match when Malaysia XI scored first.

This represents your first entry point. Arsenal were backable at just over evens at this stage, which does present a value bet because

Arsenal were 1.07 pre match There is 45 minutes remaining in the match which is ample time for Arsenal to win.

The large left to right arrow in the price/volume graph represents Arsenal’s price as the scoreline remains 1-0 to the Malaysia XI, and as time ticks on to 90 minutes.

It is here where we employ our DELAY-REACT-TRADE tactics. We have delayed entry into the market ( in other words we are employing a “wait and see” policy in certain in-play football matches at www.betfair.com). Now we seek to react to events occurring as the match is in-play. In this case, we want to react to Malaysia XI taking an unexpected lead.

All things being equal, a team priced at 1.07 will not lose. And when that team is a Premiership Top 4 team, playing a Malaysian XI, our faith in Arsenal conjuring up a positive result from the abyss, should remain strong regardless of the amount of time remaining in the match.

And herein is the secret to backing a 1.07 shot at odds of 29/1. The longer you wait the better the odds.

Now take a look at the screenshot below. What do you see?

You see an Arsenal side who extricate themselves from a highly embarrassing ( and shock) 1-0 defeat, with goals in the 87th and 92nd minutes.

Employing our Delay-React tactics at this point, we could have backed Arsenal as late as possible for as high a price as possible and hoped for the best.

The above example is a perfect template for the Delay-React element of the strategy.

And as to the trading element?

The trading element of DRT is not obligatory, but is recommended.

How to delay-react-trade this match.

Let’s look at this match from a trader’s perspective. I will take you through this DRT strategy in chronological order.

PRE MATCH

Before the match even kicks off, we have our first possible trading entry point.

Recall the research which pointed to an Arsenal side rather vulnerable in pre season matches.

Recall the Arsenal odds of 1.07. They are quite simply not backable that that price. But, they are layable at that price.

As layers, we want to lay at as short odds as possible. The shorter the odds, the lower the liability.

The trader is aware that this 1.07 lay trade is a trade to nothing. 1.07 shots are likely to win .

All we need is for Malaysia XI to score first and we will be able to profit from this pre match low risk trade.

Malaysia XI score first. Arsenal’s odds increase dramatically.

The Pre match betting market presented the trader with his first entry point for trading.

The 2nd entry point for the trader occurs when Malaysia XI score first.

Here, Arsenal’s odds increase dramatically. We can back Arsenal.

Malaysia XI’s odds reduce dramatically. We can lay Malaysia XI.

The 2-1 scoreline becomes the logical correct score for the trader because it is the obvious scoreline if Arsenal are to win the match.

As the match progresses, there are even more entry points for the admittedly more speculative traders.

Look at the screenshot below.

Here is a value lay trade . I lay Malaysia XI at odds of 1.6 . Why? Well Malaysia XI are only 1-0 up. We will profit if Arsenal score ( they don’t need to win!) Look at Malaysia XI’s odds when Arsenal score. They shoot up to 21 .

Traders are not finished yet! The odds for Arsenal are currently 4 and the scoreline is 1-1. Those with glasses half full will note that Arsenal were 1.07 odds pre match when the match was a draw ( 0-0 quite obviously!).

Arsenal are now 4 to back and it is still a draw. Arsenal just need to score 1 goal to win.

Traders are still not finished yet!

Remember the Price/Volume graph?

At its highest point, Arsenal were backable at odds of 30 ( decimal) which is 29/1. Not bad for 1.07 shots.

HOW TO SPOT POTENTIAL DRT BETS

Follow the shortlist below

Focussing on matches which are available at www.betfair.com ‘s Football In-Play Coupon. Shortlisting all short priced teams expected to win, researching said teams to spot

weaknesses, or indeed justify the short odds. Delay entry into the betting market until the match is in-play, and a shock has occurred

( usually the underdog scores first.) React as late as you deem possible and back the short odds team to win the match

eventually.

The Malaysia XI v Arsenal match should be used as a template here for the ideal match. If you are backing teams at odds of 29/1 when they were 1.07 pre-match, I’d say you’re getting a value bet, wouldn’t you?

This Delay-React policy can also be employed in matches when Nothing has happened.

I want to take you to the Celtic v Aberdeen match which kicked off the SPL for the 2012/2013 season. Celtic playing at home are priced at 1.25 to win this match.

The match remains 0-0 at half time. It’s 0-0 come the hour mark. It’s 0-0 after 70 minutes.

My contention is that a team such as Celtic, at home, at those odds, should win this match in 90 minutes .

In this particular match, it took Celtic until the 79th minute to score their goal. My contention here is that, with this match in-play, we can delay our entry as late as possible , react to the 0-0, and back Celtic at much better odds than they were pre-match in the hope that they will score before the 90 minutes is up.)

Also delay –react to nothing happening. Eg already Celtic v Aberdeen 79th minute Celtic goal.

Mention www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk free research.

HALF TIME BETTING

Half time Betting falls under the umbrella of the Delay-React-Trade concept ( the trading element being recommended but not obligatory).

In this case, we wait until halftime before beginning our betting on particular matches.

Using the Arsenal v Malaysia XI match , Malaysia XI were 1-0 up at halftime. Let’s look at the odds at halftime.

1.07 shot Arsenal are backable at halftime at 2 ( evens). Instead of backing Arsenal with £100 to win £7 pre match, I back Arsenal at evens to win £95.10 .

The bet ? For Arsenal to win the 2nd half.

A superb example of this was found with Manchester City’s first match of last season, against Swansea City. Anybody watching this match knows that Manchester City did everything bar scoring in the first half.

0-0 was the scoreline come half time.

Now is the time to enter the betting market. In this case we delay entry into the in-play betting market at a specific time. Your options here include

Backing Manchester City at much better odds than you would have got pre-match. Laying the 0-0 scoreline at much lower odds than you would have got pre-match. Backing over 2.5 goals in the hope that Manchester City convert their “oh-so-near” shooting

into goals – again at better odds than you would have got pre-match.

Manchester City won the 2nd half easily. And that is what we are betting on with this delay tactic. We are betting on the 2nd half result effectively.

I would also advise you to lay any team, especially in the Premiership, who are 3-0 up at half time (I suppose we could include 2-0 but the lay odds would not be as short at 3-0).

Why would I advise this? Well the match odds betting markets will reflect the dominance of a 3-0 scoreline at halftime, by offering extremely short odds.

As layers, short odds are our friends. In the Premiership inparticular, 3-0 does not necessarily translate as “ job done” , especially with 45 minutes of football remaining. It only takes the team 3-0 down to score the next goal and the reflection of the game changes.

A 3-1 scoreline immediately signals panic, especially when that goal was scored early in the 2nd half. Imagine a 3-2 scoreline following that!

MULTIPLES – 1.3 /1.5/1.5 lays – multiple lays – see eletter

CORRECT SCORE BETTING

I like correct score betting. Why? Because I like big odds. By using a degree of lateral thinking, we can focus on specific matches whose correct scores can be predicted with a higher degree of accuracy than other matches.

And these matches are what I call “ wins to nil” matches.

And here our good friend research serves us well. Research, coupled with odds, can highlight to you potential matches where one team has a great chance of winning to nil.

And why should we focus on wins to nil?

Logically, it reduces the scorelines we choose from. “To Nil” scorelines include

0-0 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0

And so on. Usually it is these 5 scorelines that we tend to choose from.

Here’s how you can spot those matches which are potential “win to nil” matches ( I include 0-0 above despite it not being a “win to nil” scoreline)

THE ODDS

The odds for a specific team can betray confidence that that team will dominate a specific match, most likely score 3 or 4 goals, and have a chance of winning to nil. In all of my study of football matches and betting markets, it is the 1.16-1.17 decimal odds which signal potential wins to nil.

I present the odds in decimal format as I use www.betfair.com specifically for my football betting.

Time and time again, I have seen a team at odds of 1.16 to 1.17 winning 3-0, 4-0 of derivatives thereof ( 2-0, 5-0). By no means is this a rule that can be set in stone. Your job will be to research any team really whose odds are sub 1.2 in the Match Odds, to see whether the short priced team’s form points to the potential for a comfortable win, and a win to nil.

FOCUS ON OVER OR UNDER 2.5 GOALS.

Let me share a truism with you. Either a football match will be under 2.5 goals ( meaning there will be fewer than 3 goals scored ) or it will be over 2.5 goals ( meaning there will be more than 3 goals scored).

My contention is, and to follow on from my niche idea, that we should focus on either under 2.5 goals or over 2.5 goals, and not both.

The reason I argue for your being an under 2.5 goals backer or an over 2.5 goals backer, is because of the power of focus and specialisation. I would personally side with being an over 2.5 goals backer. Logically I suppose, teams enter a football match with the intention to score as many goals as possible. This is normally the focus of both sides.

Also, under 2.5 goals strategies naturally differ from over 2.5 goals strategies. By focussing on either one or the other, you can become an expert , through repetition, for uncovering possible strong bets.

NICHE betting

Tiger Woods specialises in Golf, and not golf, and tennis. Usain Bolt specialises in sprint distances, and not sprint distances and the odd marathon. Why don’t we specialise with our betting? By getting to know a specific niche area, and laser beam focussing on that area, we can have a great advantage when looking at betting opportunities within that niche area.

With Football there are many niche areas in which we can focus. I will list a few of these areas for you.

Focus on a specific league. By focussing on a specific league, we can become real experts in that league, and determine great betting opportunities when apparent value odds present themselves. A focus specifically on “other than top flight” leagues could prove worthwhile. A look at www.soccerstats.com can provide you with some ideas in this regard. Perhaps you would like to specialise in the French Ligue 2, The Dutch Juliper League, German Bundesliga 2? The majority of punters will focus on the Premiership, French Ligue 1, Dutch Erisdivise, or German Bundesliga. Our focus on these lesser leagues means we are better informed than others when it comes to assessing the betting markets and teams.

Focus on a specific team. This is something which can evolve over a season. When Blackpool were in the Premiership for example, their home matches almost inevitably resulted in over 2.5 goals. Doxa Dramas in the Greek Top Flight last season could be relied upon to almost exclusively lose 1-0 in their matches!

Focus on a specific team home or away. A niche within a niche if you will. Manchester United at home last season almost always scored 3+ goals. Real Madrid scored 3+ goals in nearly all of their home matches. Porto last season won all of their home matches. Benfica recently avoided a draw in nearly all home matches. Certain teams are strong at home and can be exploited.

Focus on the Top 5 in a League, or the Bottom 5 in a League. The Challenge Table at www.soccerstats.com will be very useful if you make your niche the top 5/bottom 5 teams in a specific league. Top 5 teams will be expected to win the majority of their matches. Bottom 5 teams, conversely, will likely struggle.

Focus on a specific competition. Why not specialise in the Europa League, or the Champions League for instance. There are superb websites such as www.soccerway.com which show form specifically by competition. These Tournament competitions, too, provide their own specialist websites which can allow you to really research your niche.

– focus on likely top sides/bottom sides ( top 5 /bottom 5) – focus on a specific team and get to know it – focus on a specific league and get to know it.

BOTTOM LINE

I guess the lesson from this article is for “specialisation” and a focus on the few and not the many. By doing so we can become experts on certain teams, certain leagues, and certain betting markets. There are so many betting strategies and trading strategies which relate to football that we can get muddled and spread ourselves too thinly. Specialisation ensures this does not occur.

Along with specialisation, you must employ research - these 2 really will be a strong force this coming football season. Make sure you visit www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk this season as I offer my football research for free. You’ll learn how to decipher betting markets, how to spot patterns and sequences, and most importantly, how to get that betting or trading “angle in”.

With In-Play betting gathering momentum season after season, I would strongly recommend my Delay-react-trade strategy this new season. It’s the kind of strategy that can help you back a 1.07 shot at 29/1 and back a 1/5 shot such as Celtic, last season, at odds of 10/1 or higher ( and they won the match!!).