IRENES

Integrating RENewable energy and Ecosystem Services in environmental and energy policies

State-of-the Art (SOTA) analysis on Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Estonia

Author: Estonian University of Life Sciences

Version: 2.0 (19/11/2020)

Table of Contents 1.NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POLICIES ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN ESTONIA21.1National and local renewable energy policies in Estonia21.2Estonian national energy and climate plan until 203021.3Estonian National Energy Development Plan 2030+ (ESDP2030)51.4Electricity Market Act61.5Climate change adaptation plan by 2030 and respective development plan61.6Sustainable Development Act62.ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SUPPLY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN ESTONIA72.1SOLAR ENERGY72.1.1.Potential energy72.1.2.Theoretical energy82.1.3.Exploitable energy92.2WIND ENERGY102.2.1.Potential energy102.2.2.Theoretical energy102.2.3.Exploitable energy112.3BIOMASS FROM SEMI-NATURAL MEADOWS132.3.1.Potential energy132.3.2.Theoretical energy132.3.3.Exploitable energy142.4BIOMASS FROM FOREST162.4.1.Potential energy162.4.2.Theoretical energy162.4.3.Exploitable energy173.CURRENT RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION IN ESTONIA194.REFERENCES19

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POLICIES ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN ESTONIA

National and local renewable energy policies in Estonia

Estonia is moving towards achieving climate neutral, competitive, environmentally-friendly and socially responsible economic model by developing the energy communities and markets that consider the consumers, intermediating the best practices and applying up-to-date technology solutions. Based on the general principles of climate policy, the current government is developing Estonian economy into competitive low-carbon economy by the mid-century according to the government’s action program Estonia 2035 that is currently under preparation and will be finalized in April 2020. Policy document setting the measures for achieving the climate-neutral economy by 2050 are currently under development. In the context of IRENES project, handful of renewable energy related policies are relevant:

· Estonian national energy and climate plan until 2030, which is the main policy, bringing together many sectorial legislative documents

· Estonian National Energy Development Plan 2030+

· Electricity Market Act

· Climate change adaptation plan by 2030 and respective development plan

· Sustainable Development Act

Following sections give brief overview of the policies’ main focus and set targets for renewable energy development in Estonia.

Estonian national energy and climate plan until 2030

In December 2019 Estonia published the Estonian national energy and climate plan until 2030 (NECP

2030), which is required from all member states. The plan is financed under the responsibility of the Ministry of Finances based on the budget that is prepared together with other ministries. Three ministries are responsible for planning, implementation and implementation monitoring of the measures planned in the sectors covered by the plan – Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Economics and Communication Affairs, Ministry of Rural Affairs.

National objectives and measures that are required in the mandatory energy and climate plan of the Member States are set primarily in the sectoral development documents and policy principles:

1) General Principles of Climate Policy until 2050 (hereinafter GPCP 2050);

2) Estonian National Energy Development Plan 2030 (hereinafter ESDP 2030);

3) Climate change adaptation plan by 2030;

4) Transport development plan 2014-2020 (2021-2030 plan is under preparation);

5) Forestry development plan 2011-2020 (2021-2030 plan is under preparation);

6) National waste management plan 2014-2020 (2021-2030 plan is under preparation);

7) Estonian rural development plan 2014-2020 (2021-2030 plan is under preparation).

NECP 2030 shall be updated in the coming years based on the development plans under preparation for the next decade and submitted to the European Commission by 30 June 2023 and in connection with supplementing the national targets by 30 June 2024. NECP 2030 describes the provisions in these development documents and highlights the measures and trends under discussion. The strategic assessments of the environmental impact (SEA) were conducted on the sectoral development plans underlying NECP 2030 according to the Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental

Management System Act. The latter regulates national strategic planning documents but not the process of initiating and drafting the SEA of the documents drafted for compliance with EU and other international requirements. For these reasons, the SEA process has not been performed during drafting the NECP 2030 but it was conducted for the underlying national regulations.

Key objectives of NECP 2030 are as follows (see also table 1):

· Achievement of 80% reduction of Estonian greenhouse gas emission by 2050 (incl 70% by 2030): in 1990, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission was 40.4 Mt CO2ekv (excl LULUCF), in 2017, the Estonian GHG emission was 20.9 Mt CO2ekv (incl 14.7 Mt CO2ekv from the energy sector). The projected GHG emissions for 2030, when existing and additional measures indicated in NECP 2030 are applied, is 10.712.5 Mt CO2ekv, (excl LULUCF).

· Achieve 13% reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels in the sectors covered by the shared effort regulation (transport, small-scale power industry, agriculture, waste management, forestry, industry). According to the GHG inventory of 2019, the year 2005 GHG emissions in the sector of the shared effort regulation totalled to 6.3 Mt CO2ekv or in 2030, the emissions of the sector may be 5.5 Mt CO2ekv (an exact target for 2030 will be clear in 2020, when the national emission levels for 2021 to 2030 of the sectors covered by the shared effort regulation will be established).

· Share of the renewable energy from the gross final consumption in 2030 shall be at least 42%: in 2030, production of renewable energy is 16 TWh or 50% from the gross final consumption, incl renewable electricity 4.3 TWh (2018 = 1.8 TWh), renewable heat 11 TWh (2018 = 9.5 TWh), transport 0.7 TWh (2018 = 0.3 TWh)

· The gross final consumption of energy shall remain on the level of 32-33 TWh/yr until 2030. The Estonian economy is growing and hence keeping the consumption on the same level needs significant measures. The general energy savings obligation in the amount of 14.7 TWh during the period of 20202030 that is applied based on the Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU) helps keep the final energy consumption on the same level. Energy consumption can be reduced by the means of making the primary energy more efficient.

· Reduction in consumption of primary energy by up to 14% (compared to the peak of the last years): in the period of 2020-2030, Estonia is capable of reducing primary energy consumption, among others, by modernising the oil shale industry.

· Ensuring energy security by keeping the rate of dependency on imported energy as low as possible: use of the local fuels is kept as high as possible (incl increasing the use of the fuel-free energy sources), biomethane production and use potential is exploited.

· Meeting the minimum criteria of interconnectivity Increase in capacity towards Latvia and synchronisation of power grid with Central European frequency band in 2025.

· Use of research and development and innovation in measures to keep the competitiveness of economy: implementation of the energy sector’s research and development enables to apply the measures by using the research and innovation achievements.

Table 1. Estonian main energy and climate policy targets.

Targets for 2030

Policies

National target for reduction of Estonian greenhouse gases compared to 1990 emission level is 70% by 2030 (General Principles of Climate Policy until 2050)

The long-term objective for Estonia is to transfer to the low-carbon emission economy that means iterative purposeful reorganisation of the economy and energy system more resource efficient, productive and greener.

The binding national objective of 13% reduction of greenhouse gases for 2030 compared to the level of 2005 according to the Effort Sharing Regulation

((EU)2018/842)

Reduction in use of the fossil fuels and energy efficiency will reduce the carbon emissions in transport, agriculture, waste management and industrial processes, also in small-scale energy production where energy is produced in equipment with less than 20 MW of rated capacity.

Carbon emission in land use, land use change and forestry (so-called LULUCF) sector shall not be higher than capture (as

per (EU) 2018/841)

Volume of lignocellulosic (wood) fuel production and use is primarily influenced by the carbon capture obligation of the managed forest land, that is established in the national forestry accounting plan16 and with the measures of the drafted forestry development plan 2021-2030.

Final energy consumption, 32TWh/yr

For 2021-2030, maintenance of the final energy consumption needs achievement of energy savings that form 0.8% of an average final energy consumption of 2016-2018 every year. The achieved energy saving must be cumulative, i.e. the volume of the saving achieved during previous years must be stable during the whole period.

Up to 14% reduction in primary energy consumption

The primary energy intensity in Estonia is the highest in the Member States of EU17. According to the projections for 2017-2030, consumption of primary energy will drop by a quarter

42% share of renewable energy in gross final consumption of energy

Share of renewable energy is increased by changing the fossil fuel boilers to renewable fuels, increasing electricity generation on fuel-free energy sources and use of biofuels in transport.

Share of renewable electricity 40%

Increase of production volumes in wind energy (by the means of land as well as offshore wind farms), solar

energy and use of lignocellulosic (wood) fuels is applied and hydraulic pump stations will be built.

Share of fuel free energy sources in the final power consumption, >25%

Building of land and offshore wind farms and use of the solar energy potential.

Cogenerations’s total electrical power of

>600MWel

In realisation of the cogeneration potential, the cogeneration forms 1/4 of the electrical power

Share of renewable energy in heating sector, 63%

Potential of the woodfuels is used in the area of the heating and cooling energy and the share of heat pumps is successively increasing.

Share of renewable transport fuels, 14%

Primarily covered with domestic biomethane by considering the perspective of using gaseous fuels in Estonia. It is planned to produce up to 340 GWh of biomethane (actual needed volume without multipliers).

Estonian National Energy Development Plan 2030+ (ESDP2030)

Estonian National Energy Development Plan 2030+ sets long term goals for energy efficiency and renewable energy use. The national target set by ESDP2030 is that renewable energy forms at least 50% or 16 TWh from the final energy consumption in the final energy consumption of 32 TWh by 2030, is achieved with production of different renewable energy sources totals to 16 TWh in 2030. Share of renewable energy from the gross final consumption of energy forms at least 42% in 2030. The objectives of the sectors are as follows:

Electricity - share of the renewable electrical energy from the domestic electricity consumption shall form at least 30% according to ESDP2030. According to NECP 2030, the share of renewable energy forms 40% of the gross final consumption of energy.

Transport - according to ESDP2030, the renewable energy target of transport (share from final consumption) is identified only for 2020. NECP 2030 has indicated the target level also for 2030 - 14% of the gross final consumption of energy of the transport sector34.

Heat - according to ESDP2030, 11 TWh of the total heat demand is covered based on biomass in 2030, including district heating in Estonia will be covered from renewable sources in the extent of 80%. Considering the volume of reconstruction of the building stock (will be specified with drawing up the long-term strategy of the reconstruction of the building stock by March 2020) and the projections about the development of the renewable fuels in the district heating sector updated by the sector, the renewable fuels (11 TWh) form at least 63% from the gross final consumption of heat in 2030 (17.4 TWh in 2030).

Electricity Market Act

This Act governs the generation, transmission, sale, export, import and transit of electricity and the economic and technical management of the power system. This Act prescribes the principles of the operation of the electricity market, based on the need to ensure an effective supply of electricity which is provided at a reasonable price and which meets environmental requirements and the needs of consumers, and the utilisation of energy sources in a balanced manner, in an environmentally clean way and with a long-term perspective. It also regulates the subsidies and rules for selling and buying electricity generated from renewable energy sources.

Climate change adaptation plan by 2030 and respective development plan

The strategic objective of the climate change adaptation plan is to increase the readiness and capability for adapting with the impact of climate changes on the Estonian national, regional and local level. Implementation of the development plan will improve readiness and capability for adapting with the impact of climate changes and find out the areas that are most vulnerable for the climate changes. The development plan sets eight sub-objectives according to the eight priority areas. These objectives are:

1. health and rescue capability;

2. planning and land-use, including coastal areas, other areas with flood risk/soil risk, land improvement, irrigation, drainage, urban planning;

3. natural environment, including biodiversity, terrestrial ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems and environment, the Baltic Sea and marine environment, ecosystem services;

4. bioeconomy, including agriculture, forestry, fishing, game and hunting, tourism, peat extraction;

5. economy, including, insurance, banking and other financial institutions, employment, business and entrepreneurship, industry;

6. society, awareness and collaboration, including education, awareness and scientific research, communication, society, international relationships and collaboration;

7. infrastructure and buildings, incl technical support systems, transport; and

8. energy and energy supply, including energy independence, security and safety of supply, energy

Sustainable Development Act

Sustainable Development Act establishes the principles of the national strategy of sustainable development and the grounds for the sustainable use of the natural environment and natural resources.

ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SUPPLY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN ESTONIA SOLAR ENERGY Potential energy

The source of data to estimate the potential solar energy for Estonia was obtained from the Photovoltaic Geographical Information Systems (PV GIS), of the EU Science Hub. PVGIS uses the satellite-based data provided by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring. The incoming solar radiation data presented here is specifically provided by the SARAH 2.1 dataset, with a resolution of 0.05°. Two sources of data are provided, average for the years 2005 – 2016:

Surface incoming shortwave radiation (SIS): In Watts per Square Meter (W m-2). SIS is the radiation flux density reaching a horizontal unit earth surface in the 0.2-4 µm wavelength range. SIS is provided in figure 1.

Surface incoming direct shortwave radiation (SID): In Watts per Square Meter (W m-2). SID is the direct radiation received from the sun in cloudless conditions (no cloud scattering). SID is provided in figure 2.

Figure 1: Surface Incoming Shortwave solar radiation (SIS) in W/m2. The data is averaged for the years 2005-2016

Figure 2: Surface Incoming Direct Shortwave solar radiation (SID) in W/m2. The data is averaged for the years 2005-2016

Theoretical energy

In order to calculate the theoretical energy it is necessary to account for losses and conversion efficiencies of the photovoltaic modules and systems installed. PV GIS (c.europa.eu/jrc/en/PVGIS) provides a number of conversion factors that account for conversion losses, namely: Shallow angle reflection, PV technology, module temperature and slope of the mounting position. In order to obtain a map of the potential energy yield (kWh/m2), the conversion factors provided by PV GIS were utilized in combination with the SIS and SID. Potential yearly photovoltaic energy yield for Estonia (Figure 3) is calculated for a Crystalline silicon PV technology and a free-standing (no building) mounting position.

Figure 3: Potential yearly photovoltaic energy yield for Estonia in kWh/m2

Exploitable energy

The calculation of exploitable energy is based on scenarios that combines a number of spatial masks, namely restricted locations and potential locations. All layers for this calculation are included in the Basemap of Estonia and other auxiliary datasets provided by the Land Board of Estonia (available at geoportaal.maaamet.ee). The masks are defined in table 2.

Table 2.restricted locations and potential locations used in the development of solar energy yield scenarios

Restricted locations

Valuable landscapes

Väärtuslikud maastikud

Defined at the County level, in the County spatial plans

Valuable agricultural land

Väärtuslik põllumajandusmaa

Defined at the County level, in the County spatial plans

Protected areas

Kaitsealad

Includes all levels of protected areas in Estonia

Potential locations

Technosols

Technosols

Areas located in heavily altered soils, usually corresponding to limestone quarries

Shrubbery

Põõsastik

Shrubby areas that usually correspond to encroached and abandoned land

Wasteland

Jäätmaa

Abandoned industrial and mining areas

Other open areas

Muu lage

-

This list of layers is intended to provide a rough estimation of potential energy yield of Estonia. For detailed planning, different scales, sources and processes shall be used.

NB! The solar energy scenario is currently under development.

WIND ENERGY Potential energy

Potential energy in the specific case of wind speed is understood as the wind speed at 100m height. The information presented in this section has been obtained from the New European Wind Atlas

(https://map.neweuropeanwindatlas.eu/). For an in-detail methodological insight, Hahmann et al. (2020) provide the necessary background. The map presented in figure 4 shows average wind speeds (m/s) over Estonia for a period of 10 years, between 2009 and 2018. Daily wind speed records were obtained from the New European Wind Atlas database between 2009 and 2018 and subsequently averaged using an R script.

Figure 4. Average wind speeds (m/s) between 2009 and 2018, obtained from the New European Wind Atlas (https://map.neweuropeanwindatlas.eu/).

Theoretical energy

In the case of wind energy, the theoretical fraction is the mean power density and is calculated as the cube of the wind speed and expressed as MWh/m2yr. The average wind speeds obtained from the New European Wind Atlas were used as the basis for this calculation. The theoretical yearly wind energy yield for Estonia is represented in figure 5.

Figure 5. Theoretical yearly wind energy yield (mean power density) (MWh/m2yr) calculated on the basis of the average wind speeds extracted from the New European Wind Atlas

Exploitable energy

In order to estimate the exploitable fraction of wind energy in Estonia, the potential locations of windfarms were imported and visualized in a GIS system. In the frame of IRENES, potential locations for windfarms are considered as those areas approved in the County spatial plans as areas for the development of wind energy. For the final potential energy yield calculations, conversion parameters from the Global Wind Atlas (https://globalwindatlas.info/) were used, including a Generic 3.45 MW - IEC Class 2 turbine type, with a pitch power control system, a 10% of total losses and a standard turbine of 100 m hub height.

Current windfarm locations and planned areas for wind energy production are represented in figure 6.

Fig. 6. Planned areas for windfarms are represented as blue polygons and current windfarm locations are represented with green circles. The size of the circles indicate the installed capacity.

The exploitable energy is calculated under an exploitation scenario that includes the following criteria:

· Turbine spacing 300 m

· Used area of total planned area: 50%

Total estimated exploitable energy = 17376 GWh

BIOMASS FROM SEMI-NATURAL MEADOWS Potential energy

In Estonia, ca. 109500 ha are classified as semi-natural meadows (Villoslada et al., 2019), which belong to several Annex I habitat types and show various degrees of management and abandonment. Potential energy is understood as the raw biomass dry weight in semi-natural grasslands. The biomass yield was predicted using a random forest regression algorithm and 13 vegetation indices (Villoslada et al., 2020) derived from Sentinel 2 images corresponding to the vegetation peak period (June and July) for four years (2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020). A dataset of nearly 150 above ground biomass samples was collected from several fieldwork campaigns in 2019 in a range of semi-natural grassland habitats and was used to train the random forest algorithm, yielding accuracies of R2 = 0.7. Averaged values of vegetation indices for June and July over the four years were used to predict potential above-ground biomass. Figure 7 shows the results of the prediction algorithm in the flooded meadows of Alam-Pedja Nature Reserve. The resolution of the raster grid is 20 m/px.

Fig. 7. Potential above ground biomass in flooded meadows in Alam-Pedja protected area (South Estonia).

Theoretical energy

The theoretical energy fraction is calculated using the calorific conversion factors provided by Melts

(2014). The calorific values are obtained using an IKA WERKE Calorimeter system (Melts et al., 2014). In Estonia, the highest energy potential is achieved by Dry and mesic meadows (18.6 kJ/g) and floodplain meadows (18.4 kJ/g). Therefore, the theoretical energy analysis focuses only in these two types of seminatural meadows. Figure 8 shows the potential energy yield of floodplain meadows in Alam-Pedja Nature Reserve, calculated by multiplying the potential energy (dry biomass yield) by the calorific conversion factor.

Fig.8. Potential energy yield in floodplain meadows, calculated as calorific potential of dry grass.

Exploitable energy

The exploitable energy fraction is understood as the calorific value obtained from the harvestable grass biomass that can be used in boiler houses to generate district heating.

The exploitable fraction of grass biomass energy is calculated taking into account three area restrictions.

Grassland plots used to calculate the exploitable energy fraction must comply with the following criteria

1. Grassland plots for which agri-environmental support has not been claimed. This criteria ensures that the calculation does not take into account semi-natural grasslands currently used for cattle or fodder production, therefore avoiding competition for end product.

2. Grassland plots located within protected areas. These grassland plots are more likely to receive support for mowing for energy.

3. Grasslands within 10 km from boiler houses (only boiler houses that burn woodchips or other wood residues).

Figure 9 shows the harvestable portion of floodplain meadows in Alam-Pedja Nature Reserve, along river Emajõgi. The areas in black show grasslands that are currently being grazed or mown and therefore excluded from the analysis.

Fig.9. Potential energy yield in floodplain meadows, calculated as calorific potential of dry grass. Black polygons show areas that are currently receiving subsidies for management. These were excluded from the analysis.

Total estimated exploitable energy = 964 TJ/yr

BIOMASS FROM FOREST Potential energy

The Estonian Environment Agency provides the data on wood assortments used in this assessment. Wood assortment volumes are calculated based on stand age, composition, soil type and additional parameters detailed in the following document (in Estonian):

https://www.riigiteataja.ee/aktilisa/1220/2201/7017/VV_242m_lisa4.pdf#

From all the assortment types considered by the Environment Agency, woodchips from logging residue is chosen as the basis for potential energy calculations. Currently in Estonia, the bulk of the firewood is mostly in use, whereas logging residues are still practically unused. The data provided by the Environmental Agency is calculated on the basis of each forest stand (Figure 10).

Fig. 10. Potential supply of logging residues (m3/ha) in forest stands.

Theoretical energy

In order to convert raw woodchip volumes per forest stand to energy yields, it is necessary to use equations and conversion factors. The following equation is used to calculate the theoretical energy yield from logging residue (figure 11):

1 m3 of logging residue = 0.0018 GWh (https://www.inforse.org/europe/pdfs/Estonia-note.pdf)

Fig. 11. Logging residue energy potential in forest stands in Estonia (MWj/ha).

Exploitable energy

The exploitable fraction of logging residue energy was calculated utilizing area restrictions based on a number of rules (figure 12):

· Forest stands that have been recently logged (last 10 years) are excluded from the analysis

· 25% is left on site for maintaining microhabitat for saprophytic beetles (

· Strictly protected forest areas, which correspond to the following protection areas in Estonia: Strict nature Reserve (Loodusreservaat), Conservation Zones (Looduslik skv, hooldatav skv), inventoried woodland key habitats (Vääriselupaik).

· Undrained swamp forests were excluded, as they are too wet for harvesting logging residue.

Fig. 12. Grey polygons indicate areas that were excluded from the exploitable energy calculation.

Total estimated exploitable energy = 48169.6 GWh

NB! This is a total energy yield and does not take into account current level of wood felling.

CURRENT RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION IN ESTONIA

Data concerning renewable energy production in Estonia is only available at the national level, and is provided by Statistics Estonia (www.stat.ee). Table 3 shows the evolution of renewable energy production since 2010, disaggregated by Renewable Energy Source.

Table 3. Evolution of renewable energy production in Estonia since 2010

Primary solid biofuels are mainly fuelwood, although also wood residues, wood pellets and other vegetal material are included. Primary solid biofuels have experience a steady increase during the last ten years, and are expected to increase during the next years. Among the other RES, solar photovoltaic has only recently experienced an increase in production, which has doubled between 2018 and 2019.

REFERENCES

Hahmann, A. N., Sıle, T., Witha, B., Davis, N. N., Dörenkämper, M., Ezber, Y., ... & Söderberg10, S. (2020). The making of the new European Wind Atlas, Part 1: model sensitivity. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions.

Melts, I. (2014). Biomass from semi-natural grassland for bioenergy (Doctoral dissertation, Eesti Maaülikool).

Villoslada, M., Ward, R. D., Bunce, R. G., Sepp, K., Kuusemets, V., & Luuk, O. (2019). Country-scale mapping of ecosystem services provided by semi-natural grasslands. Science of the Total Environment, 661, 212-225.

Villoslada, M., Bergamo, T. F., Ward, R. D., Burnside, N. G., Joyce, C. B., Bunce, R. G. H., & Sepp, K. (2020).

Fine scale plant community assessment in coastal meadows using UAV based multispectral data. Ecological Indicators, 111, 105979.

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