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Presenter:
Kristin Larson, Ph. D.
Data Scientist
Weather Trends & Climate Normals
26-28 April 2017
15th Itron Energy Forecasting Conference
2
Decision Support for Weather Sensitive Operations
Our Resources
3
Our Experience
4
FORESIGHT:
Proprietary long range weather
forecasting solutions for
energy markets
THREAT ID:
Early identification of potential severe
weather grid disruption for load
shedding
PRECISION FORECAST
DATA:
Increase base load certainty with
precise hourly point forecasts for
LFEs
NENA ANALYTICS:
Coal & dry freight fundamentals
influencing supply, demand, freight
cost and arbitrage opportunities
DEEP STORM:
Predictive & Prescriptive
machine learning algorithms for
utilities
YOUR 24/7 Wx Department
5
DeepStorm™• Uncover unknown patterns in your data through
machine learning.• Create predictive algorithms to drive improved
business decisions for competitive differentiation.
Machine Learning
6
Advances in algorithms and GPU hardware
has enabled deep neural networks to beat
competing algorithms by large margins in
fields like speech recognition and object
detection in images.
These same deep neural networks are used
in StormGeo to discover complex structures
in vast weather datasets and and relate
them to business-impacting phenomena.
A traditional statistical approach (like MOS)
will use 10 to 20 variables to train the model
and is restricted to linear relantionships. A
deep neural network can include 1,000,000
variables in 3 dimensions and is not
restricted to linear relationships.
Weather forecasting petabytes of data
7
ForeSight: Long Range Forecasting
ForeSight 30
30 day outlook updated 3x per week
Service includes:
•Forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies
across the globe
•On-demand video updates by our senior scientists 3x
per week
•Live access to expert meteorologists via phone, email,
and web conference
•Access to information through StormGeo's unique
customer portal
ForeSight 90
This quarterly outlook provides a long-range forecast in a
90-day format. StormGeo uses thorough global tele-
connections and in-house developed forecast indices to
provide market intelligence for expected weather
conditions for the next 90 days.
ForeSight Seasonal
Whether its hurricanes, snow storms, severe weather, or
other seasonally focused sensitivities - our meteorologists
are able to provide long-range weather forecasting to
help you prepare for and make decisions now that will
affect the future.
8
Tropical Cyclone (TC) Risk Assessment
A detailed examination and discussion of
near-term and long-range weather
parameters/models with respect to the
potential tropical cyclone risk in a
particular basin. Analog seasons
(seasons with a similar weather pattern
and ocean temperature setup) are
compared to the currently-assessed risk to
a particular basin. The assessment has 3
main parts:
•Short-Term: 7-14 days
•Medium-Range: 30-45 days
•Long-Range: Seasonal outlook
ForeSight: Long Range Forecasting
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ForeSight: Long Range Forecasting
Hosted long range forecast weather portal at StormGeo.com
10
Coal Market Analysis
We cover the global coal market.
• Web-based platform with daily coal market comment from
our analysts, a directional price forecast for API2 and
data access for your own use
• Weekly reports
• Monthly reports
Nena Coal Weekly report offers short term directional coal
price forecasts for API2, API4 and API8, while Nena Coal
Monthly presents scenario-based price forecasts for API2
(CIF ARA) front month and next four quarters.
We calculate the coal power output for major countries and
the coal-to-gas switching price. We assess the Global
Arbitrage Coal Matrix in order to depict trade flow
opportunities and trends.
Request a free trialGet full access to
StormGeo’s analysis for
one week free of charge.
Follow the market closely
with Nena’s price forecasts
and market updates
throughout the day via
Nena’s website and in
reports issued by email. A
web meeting with an
analyst is included in the
free trial. [email protected]
https://www.nena.no/global-coal/
Nena AnalysisA leading analysis house delivering energy market insights
11
Climate Normals
Supplemental Climate Normals available
from:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/normalsPDFaccess/
Download before the talk with
internet access for your
locations
12
Load Changes
Predicting the Response of Electricity
Load to Climate Change Patrick Sullivan, Jesse Colman, and Eric Kalendra
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
#64297http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/64297.pdf
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• Temperature sensitivity to load using 2005-2006
(Platts, FERC form 714)
• Baseline Electricity demand based on the U.S.
EIA Annual Energy Outlook (degree days at
1990-2010 averages)
• Temperature changes from MIT’s Integrated
Earth System Model (scenario RCP4.56,
radiative forcing stabilizes at 4.5 W/m2 in 2100)
Load Changes
14
Annual Load change in 2050 compared to baseline
Summer increases and winter decreases
Load Changes
15
Summer Load Increase in 2050
compared to baseline
Load Changes
16
Change in Heating Degree Days
Weather Trends
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Change in Cooling Degree Days
Weather Trends
18
Defined by World Meteorological Agency, a "normal"
of a particular variable (e.g., temperature) is defined
as the 30-year average.
For example, the minimum temperature normal in January for a station in
Chicago, Illinois, would be computed by taking the average of the 30 January
values of monthly averaged minimum temperatures from 1981 to 2010. Each of
the 30 monthly values was in turn derived from averaging the daily observations
of minimum temperature for the station.
In practice, however, much more goes into NCEI's Climate Normals product than
simple 30-year averages. Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and
suspect data values. In addition, Climate Normals include quantities other than
averages such as degree days, probabilities, standard deviations, etc. Climate
Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to
understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United
States.
Climate Normals
19
30 year average updated every 10 years by NCEICompared to the previous Climate Normals, the new Climate Normals includes
the decade of the 2000s and loses the decade of the 1970s. As the 2000s were
warmer than the 1970s, this has had a warming influence on the Climate Normals.
Comparing these decades using our best dataset for climate change analysis, the
USHCN, we find that the decade of the 2000s was about
1.5°F warmer than the 1970s. For maximum, minimum, and
mean temperature the difference, respectively, was 1.37°F, 1.55°F, and 1.46°F. As
the Climate Normals are an average of three decades, this warmed the
new Climate Normals by approximately 0.5°F. The
difference between these values and the actual difference between the reported
1971–2000 Normals and the new Normals are caused by station moves, changes
in observing practices or instruments, etc.
Climate Normals
20
Supplemental Climate Normals available
from:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/normalsPDFaccess/
Climate Normals
21
For Further Reading:
Arguez, A., R. S. Vose, and J. Dissen, 2013: Alternative Climate Normals: Impacts to the Energy Industry. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, 915-917.
Arguez, A., and R. S. Vose, 2011: The Definition of the Standard WMO Climate Normal: The Key to Deriving Alternative Climate Normals. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92,
699-704.
various definitions of “normal” climateDenver-Stapleton, CO GHCN-ID: USW00023062 Latitude: 39.7633°N Longitude: 104.8694°W Elevation: 1611.2m
Maximum Temperature (°F) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
1981-2010 Normal 44.5 46.1 53.6 60.9 70.5 81.2 88.2 85.7 77.2 64.9 52.3 43.3 64.1
1991-2010 Normal 44.9 47.1 54.6 61.0 71.3 81.4 88.8 85.8 77.8 65.3 52.7 44.7 64.6
1996-2010 Normal 45.5 46.7 54.5 61.2 71.5 81.6 89.5 85.9 77.9 65.4 54.0 44.7 64.9
2001-2010 Normal 45.7 45.3 54.2 62.1 71.0 81.6 89.8 86.1 78.0 65.3 54.7 44.6 64.9
2006-2010 Normal 43.9 45.6 54.7 61.0 70.9 82.1 88.5 85.9 77.4 64.4 56.0 41.9 64.4
Optimal Climate Normal 45.5 45.9 54.2 61.0 71.2 81.7 89.7 86.2 77.7 65.3 54.2 43.8 64.7
Hinge Fit Normal 46.2 46.7 56.2 61.8 71.6 82.0 89.6 86.3 78.3 65.1 54.3 44.0 65.2
Minimum Temperature (°F) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
1981-2010 Normal 17.4 19.6 26.4 34.1 43.8 52.8 59.0 57.4 47.5 35.7 24.9 16.7 36.4
1991-2010 Normal 17.4 19.9 26.8 33.9 44.0 52.7 59.1 57.3 47.4 35.7 25.0 17.7 36.4
1996-2010 Normal 17.8 19.4 26.5 33.7 43.7 52.6 59.8 57.3 47.4 35.9 25.8 17.7 36.5
2001-2010 Normal 17.9 18.4 27.2 34.3 43.5 53.0 59.6 57.0 47.2 35.8 26.3 17.5 36.5
2006-2010 Normal 17.1 18.6 27.3 33.1 43.3 53.1 58.8 57.4 46.8 35.7 27.0 16.0 36.2
Optimal Climate Normal 17.7 19.4 27.4 33.9 43.4 52.8 58.9 57.3 47.7 35.7 25.2 17.1 36.4
Hinge Fit Normal 18.4 19.7 28.2 34.3 43.8 53.1 59.2 57.2 47.5 35.4 25.9 16.9 36.6
NOAA’s 1981-2010 Climate Normals:
Monthly Temperature Normals
2006-2010 Normal
An average over
2006-2010, the most
recent 5 years in the
period of record.
Page 2 of 2
Frequently asked
questions
1.What are climate normals?
Traditionally, NOAA defines a climate "normal" as a 30-year average. For example, we compute the January temperature normal for a station by averaging the 30 January values of monthly temperatures from 1981 to 2010. Climate Normals are used to determine the rates a power company can charge its customers, where and when to schedule an outdoor wedding, and countless other applications.
2. Why do you provide seven different “normals” instead of one? Is it because of global warming?
Many users of NOAA’s Climate Normals products have expressed concerns about using a 30-year average in an era of observed climate change (see the For Further Reading section on the previous page). In fact, some of our users have begun calculating their own 10-year averages, for example. NOAA provides these additional computations to help users make better-informed decision. NOAA also recognizes that alternative ways of defining “normal” may work better than the 30-year average given observed global warming.
2001-2010 Normal
An average over
2001-2010, the most
recent 10 years in
the period of record.
1996-2010 Normal
An average over
1996-2010, the most
recent 15 years in
the period of record.
1991-2010 Normal
An average over
1991-2010, the most
recent 20 years in
the period of record.
Hinge Fit Normal
A normal calculated using a
statistical fit (black line
segments) through the data
points. Prior to the “hinge”
point, the fit must be flat.
Thereafter, the fit can be
increasing, decreasing, or flat.
The hinge fit normal (black
dot) is defined as the value of
the fit through the most recent
year in the period of record
(i.e., 2010).
Optimal Climate Normal
An average of the most
recent N years in the period
of record. A formula based
on time series features,
such as long-term trends,
determines the value of N.
A smaller (larger) value of N
typically implies a stronger
(weaker) trend in the time
series.
1981-2010 Normal
An average over 1981-2010,
the most recent 30 years in
the period of record. This is
the traditional way that
NOAA has computed
Climate Normals.
N
Note: The values plotted in the schematics, as well as the depicted size of “N” in the Optimal Climate Normals
schematic, are for illustrative purposes only, and do not reflect actual climate data.
5-yr 10-yr
15-yr 20-yr
30-yr
Included it in the average for that pre-determined number of years.
The value was a candidate (it could have been used), but it wasn't ultimately used.
Not sure about this description…
2006-2010 Normal
An average over
2006-2010, the most
recent 5 years in the
period of record.
2001-2010 Normal
An average over
2001-2010, the most
recent 10 years in
the period of record.
1996-2010 Normal
An average over
1996-2010, the most
recent 15 years in
the period of record.
1991-2010 Normal
An average over
1991-2010, the most
recent 20 years in
the period of record.
An average of the most
recent N years in the period
of record. A formula based
on time series features,
such as long-term trends,
determines the value of N.
A smaller (larger) value of N
typically implies a stronger
(weaker) trend in the time
series.
1981-2010 Normal
An average over 1981-2010, the most
recent 30 years in the period of
record. This is the traditional way that
NOAA has computed Climate
Normals.
30-yr
1991-2010 Normal
An average over
1991-2010, the
most recent 20
years in the
period of record.20-yr
1996-2010 Normal
An average over
1996-2010, the
most recent 15
years in the
period of record.15-yr
2001-2010 Normal
An average over
2001-2010, the
most recent 10
years in the
period of record.10-yr
2006-2010 Normal
An average over
2006-2010, the
most recent 5
years in the
period of record.5-yr
2006-2010 Normal
An average over
2006-2010, the most
recent 5 years in the
period of record. 5-yr
2001-2010 Normal
An average over
2001-2010, the most
recent 10 years in
the period of record. 10-yr
1991-2010 Normal
An average over
1991-2010, the most
recent 20 years in
the period of record. 20-yr
1996-2010 Normal
An average over
1996-2010, the most
recent 15 years in
the period of record. 15-yr
29
Estimation and Extrapolation of
Climate Normals and Climatic Trends
Robert E. Livezey, Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, Marina M.
Timofeyeva, Richard Tinker and Huug M. van den Dool
Climate Prediction Center JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND
CLIMATOLOGY, Nov. 2007 1759-1776
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2007JAMC1666.1
Weather Trends
2006-2010 Normal
An average over
2006-2010, the most
recent 5 years in the
period of record.
2001-2010 Normal
An average over
2001-2010, the most
recent 10 years in
the period of record.
1996-2010 Normal
An average over
1996-2010, the most
recent 15 years in
the period of record.
1991-2010 Normal
An average over
1991-2010, the most
recent 20 years in
the period of record.
An average of the most
recent N years in the period
of record. A formula based
on time series features,
such as long-term trends,
determines the value of N.
A smaller (larger) value of N
typically implies a stronger
(weaker) trend in the time
series.
Optimal Climate Normal
An average of the most recent N
years in the period of record. A
formula based on time series
features, such as long-term
trends, determines the value of
N. A smaller (larger) value of N
typically implies a stronger
(weaker) trend in the time series.
N
2006-2010 Normal
An average over
2006-2010, the most
recent 5 years in the
period of record.
2001-2010 Normal
An average over
2001-2010, the most
recent 10 years in
the period of record.
1996-2010 Normal
An average over
1996-2010, the most
recent 15 years in
the period of record.
1991-2010 Normal
An average over
1991-2010, the most
recent 20 years in
the period of record.
Hinge Fit Normal
A normal calculated using a statistical fit (black
line segments) through the data points. Prior to
the “hinge” point, the fit must be flat. Thereafter,
the fit can be increasing, decreasing, or flat. The
hinge fit normal (black dot) is defined as the
value of the fit through the most recent year in
the period of record (i.e., 2010).
2006-2010 Normal
An average over
2006-2010, the most
recent 5 years in the
period of record.
2001-2010 Normal
An average over
2001-2010, the most
recent 10 years in
the period of record.
1996-2010 Normal
An average over
1996-2010, the most
recent 15 years in
the period of record.
1991-2010 Normal
An average over
1991-2010, the most
recent 20 years in
the period of record.
An average of the most
recent N years in the period
of record. A formula based
on time series features,
such as long-term trends,
determines the value of N.
A smaller (larger) value of N
typically implies a stronger
(weaker) trend in the time
series.
33
NCEI engaging users for additional products.
Working on ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)
normals.
Send suggestions to:Anthony Arguez, Ph.D.
Physical ScientistNOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
828-271-4338
Climate Normals
3434
Thank you!
Kristin Larson, Ph. D.
Data Scientist
Ken Carrier
Industry Manager
12650 N. Featherwood, Suite 140
Houston, TX 77034
Ken Mobile (832) 258-8086
www.stormgeo.com