weather observing and prediction capabilities - joseph sienkiewicz
DESCRIPTION
Presented at the 2015 Ferry Safety and Technology ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
WEATHER Observing and Prediction Capabilities
Joe Sienkiewicz, Director (Acting),
NOAA / National Weather Service
Ocean Prediction Center
http://weather.gov
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ h"p://www.facebook.com/OceanPredic6onCenter 1
College Park, MD
NWS / Ocean Predic/on Center mission/responsibility
• Protec/on of life and property, safety at sea, and enhancement of economic opportunity – Issue Warnings and Forecasts
• Par6ally fulfill U.S. responsibili6es with the World Meteorological Organiza6on and Safety of Life at Sea Conven6on (SOLAS) – Global Mari6me Distress Safety System *GMDSS* (
h"p://www.gmdss.com/) • Forecast support
– Government incident response (USCG,NOAA)
– Government opera6ons (USCG, Navy, NOAA)
• Science AND service based organiza6on
2
3
h"p://weather.gmdss.org/metareas.html
OPC OPC
NHC
HFO
US/NWS Responsibility
NHC
Observa6ons
• Satellites – Geosta6onary (Japan -‐ Himawari-‐8) • Most advanced capabili6es to date
– Polar orbi6ng • Mul6ple sensors, instruments, capabili6es
• In-‐situ observa6ons (buoys) – Expensive, limited representa6on, and vulnerable
• Ships of opportunity (Volunteer Observing Ships) – Not always frequent
Predic6on • Meterological Services
– Goal – informa6on for informed decision making – Tools
• Numerical models – Determinis6c (one answer from one forecast model)
» Atmospheric -‐ Wind, Visibility, Thunderstorms, Tropical Cyclones » Waves » Ocean (current)
– Probabilis6c (many answers from many models) – Mul6 Model Ensembles » factoring in
• uncertainty at 6me 0 • Relevance of an event based on past events
» Atmospheric » Tropical cyclones » Waves
• Forecaster interpreta6on – Knowledge – experience
Himawari-‐8 AHI Visible imagery
GOES -‐13 Visible imagery Vaisala Lightning
Short Range Ensemble Probability of Visibility 0.25 nm or less
NASA MODIS Fog Product
GOES-‐13 Fog Product
NOAA High Resolu6on Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Visibility (nm)
GOES-‐13 Fog Product
NOAA High Resolu6on Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Visibility (nm)
Short Range Ensemble Probability of Visibility 0.25 nm or less
U.S. WSR-‐88D Na6onal Radar Composite
Japan MTSAT Vaisala based Lightning Density
European Advanced Sca"erometer – A and B (ASCATs) NASA RapidScat (ISS)
Near surface vector winds (knots)
Satellite Al6meter Wave Heights (FT)
JASON-‐2 Al6Ka
CryoSat-‐2
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Near surface wind speeds (knots)
European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecas6ng
(ECMWF) Significant Wave Height (FT)
Mul6-‐Model Ensemble Probability of Wind Speeds 20
knots or greater 144 hour forecast
Typhoon Maysak Himawari-‐8
½ km resolu6on visible 10 min temporal resolu6on
Tropical Cyclone Predic6on Improvements
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF)
HWRF -‐ Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System
HWRF -‐ Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System
HWRF -‐ Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System
Summary
• Advanced observing capabili6es exist for weather watch
• Reaping benefit of targeted science and service foci (tropical cyclones)
• Predic6on in determinis6c and probabilis6c modes improving
• Shorter term predic6on (models) to address weather needs (i.e., thunderstorms)
• Communica6ng to those at sea con6nues to be a challenge