weather considerations for uas integration · weather considerations for uas integration sponsor:...

Scot Campbell

8 December 2016

Weather Considerations for UAS Integration

Sponsor: Steve Abelman, ANG-C6

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Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop 2016 - 2SC 8 December 2016

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© 2016 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Example Weather Impacts on UAS

“When the aircraft flew into cloud cover, it simultaneously lost satellite link. Shortly thereafter, the crew spotted ice buildup using the onboard camera. Before they could recover the aircraft from cloud cover, ice buildup and lost link made the controls erratic, causing the aircraft to stall.”

“… he had been trying to take pictures of the monument and that the wind blew the drone across a street that divides the White House from the grounds of the Washington Monument.”

Small UAS Large UAS

October 5, 2015

September 24, 2015


Current Weather Sources

Aviation weather products have evolved over time for conventional aircraft.Needs specific to UAS operations have not been defined

Aviation-Specific WeatherConsumer Weather

Point-Based Weather Forecasts

Simple Drone Weather Apps


• Background

• UAS Weather Needs Study

• Weather Considerations for Visual Line Of Sight (VLOS)

• Weather Considerations for Beyond VLOS (BVLOS)

• Summary

Overview


FAA / LincolnUAS Weather Study Objectives

Investigate weather information requirements for UAS operations

Consider a wide range of UAS missions and weather conditions

Identify weather information gaps

Provide preliminary UAS weather research

roadmap to FAA


Weather Information Gap IdentificationProcess

• Dependent on mission class

• Safety

• Airspace management

• Mission efficiency

• Mission urgency

Mission Classification

Operator Surveys and Interviews

ConOps and Vision for Integration

Mission ClassClass Code

Use Case

Bridge and Structure InspectionAccident Scene InvestigationAerial Photography / ImagingAgriculture (Crop Monitoring/ Management)Media / CinematographySurveying and MappingResearch and DevelopmentSearch and RescueSnowpack MonitoringPower Production InspectionAgriculture (Crop Monitoring/ Management)Agriculture (Aerial Application)Search and RescueTraffic MonitoringSurveillance / Reconnaissance SensingPackage DeliverySurveying and MappingSnowpack Monitoring

0‐500 ft / 0‐1 hr / 0‐3 mi

0‐500 ft / 0‐1 hr / 3‐25 mi

L1

L2

Current Weather Products

UAS Weather Needs

Similar Missions

Strategies for Airspace Management

UAS Weather Gaps

List of Wx Products Ability to meet need

Recommendations for deeper

quantitative analysis and development


Stakeholder Outreach

• Stakeholder surveys: Identify mission operational characteristics, weather impact, weather resources, and potential weather information gaps

• Surveyed population:

4000+ Surveys Disseminated – Received 102 Responses or Interviews to date


• UAS operation characteristics• Weather considerations and significance to mission• Currently-available weather information sources & utility• Additional weather information needs

Survey Content


Example Weather Information Results

Information category

Not at allsignificant

Verysignificant

Neutral

“Provide the significance of each weather condition to the feasibility of your operation”Small UAS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Example Weather Information Results

Information category

Not at allsignificant

Verysignificant

Neutral

“Provide the significance of each weather condition to the feasibility of your operation”Small UAS Large UAS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


• Part 107 Flight Rules– Obtain local weather conditions– Maintain 500 ft below and 2000 ft

horizontal distance from clouds– 3 SM visibility (slant range)

• High sensitivity to local winds, visibility, and precipitation

• Observation may be more important than forecast

Weather Needs Vary BetweenTwo Key Operational Modes

• UAS expected to be subject to Instrument Flight Rules (IFR)

• Requires integration with manned traffic– Time-based operations– Remote sense and avoid weather– Demand/capacity balance

• Contingency planning is critical– Lost link considerations

• Potentially long mission durations

• Forecast may be more important than observation

Visual Line of Sight Beyond Visual Line of Sight


• Background




• Summary

Overview


1. Precipitation / Thunderstorms

– UAS not waterproof

2. Surface Wind– Controllability– Ability to stay within

geofence boundaries

3. Clouds and Visibility– Part 107 weather

minimums to separate from IFR traffic

– Maintain visual contact with UAS

Significant Weather for VLOS

Local Conditions are Critical

…


Local Variability in C&V

• Geographic location– Terrain effects– Atmospheric effects

• Time– Weather is dynamic


Ceiling & Visibility (C&V) Gap Analysis:Qualitative Evaluation

Weather Product Rated Ability to Meet Weather NeedMETAR/ASOS Direct measurement, but often not co-located with launch site. MOS/LAMP Demonstrated skill, with some diminishment after 24 hours. Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

Less precision than MOS/LAMP, but human value-added for aviation weather thresholds. Limited to airports.

Direct Observation Provides direct observation at launch location, but usually restricted to visual estimate rather than measurement.

Satellite Imagery Good for areal coverage, but lacking in height.Area Forecast Broad area forecast of C&V.Prog Charts Broad forecast of C&V.

NWP Models High resolution area coverage. Practical application shows up in statistical products (MOS/LAMP).

NEXRAD Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V.TDWR Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V.PIREP Few low altitude observations away from airportAIRMET Broad forecast of C&V.ITWS Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V.CIWS Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V.CoSPA Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V.NWS Point Forecasts High resolution area coverage. Height information typically not included.

Mostly meets weather need Partially meets weather need Does not meet weather need


• Potential TAF constraints– Updates only scheduled

every 6 hours: may not capture dynamic changes

– Forecast can lag/lead observation: may miss timing of events

– Only valid in the vicinity of an airport: may not be valid at remote location

Ceiling & Visibility (C&V) Gap Analysis:Example Quantitative Evaluation

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

Less precision than MOS/LAMP, but human value-added for aviation weather thresholds. Limited to airports.

Impact of potential limitations (gaps) can be quantified through statistical analysis


• Background




• Summary

Overview


1. Thunderstorms– Unable to ‘see and avoid’

2. Winds Aloft– Critical for time-based ops

3. Icing– Lack of ice protection

4. Urban/Terrain Wind Effects

Significant Weather for BVLOS

Uncertainty degrades efficiency due to strict contingency planning

…


Effect of Wind onPredicted Flight Time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Flig

ht T

ime

Erro

r (%

)

Assumptions• Planned flight is direct route between

origin and destination• Flight time = Distance / Ground Speed• Ground Speed = Cruise Speed – Wind Error• Constant wind error

DJI Phantom

Scan Eagle

ReaperGlobal Hawk

10 knot wind error

5 knot wind error

Cruise Speed (knots)


Winds Aloft Gap Analysis:Qualitative Evaluation

Weather Product Ability to Meet Weather NeedNumerical Weather Prediction Models

High resolution area coverage. Practical application in statistical products (MOS/LAMP).

Wind/Temp Aloft Tables Does not provide low level winds information. Direct Observation This would provide wind aloft at launch location. However, not typically available.

METAR/ASOS Primary value is some correlation between surface and aloft wind. Often not co-located with launch site.

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

Less precision than MOS/LAMP, but human value-added for aviation weather thresholds.

MOS/LAMP Primary value is some correlation between surface and aloft wind.Area Forecast Broad area forecast of significant winds. Aloft not typically represented.NWS Point Forecasts Winds aloft not typically addressed. Primary value is correlation with surface winds.Rawinsonde Soundings Sparse observationTDWR Gust front product. Sparse.ITWS Terminal winds product. Limited availability.

NEXRAD Unexploited Doppler information.

AIRMET Provides high threshold wind warning. Not typically aloft.

Mostly meets weather need Partially meets weather need Does not meet weather need


Winds Aloft Gap Analysis:Example Quantitative Evaluation

San Francisco: 10m Above Ground Level San Francisco: 80m Above Ground Level

HRRR captures cycle, underestimates magnitude HRRR misses cycle, overestimates magnitude

HRRR = High Resolution Rapid Refresh model

ObservationHRRR Model

ObservationHRRR Model

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6

Win

d Sp

eed

(kno

ts)

Day Number

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6

Win

d Sp

eed

(kno

ts)

Day Number

Weather Product Ability to Meet Weather NeedNumerical Weather Prediction Models

High resolution area coverage. Practical application in statistical products(MOS/LAMP).


• Background




• Summary

Overview


• Off-airport weather conditions– Off-airport winds, including urban and

terrain effects– Ceiling & visibility for Part 107 operations

• Low-level winds aloft– To enable time-based integration

• Weather-impacted capacity prediction for sUAS– Weather avoidance models for sUAS of

different capability levels

• Tactical weather avoidance for BVLOS

Summary of Key UAS Weather Gaps

• Long-range weather forecasts for missions up to 30 hours– Convective weather (including cloud

tops)– Stratospheric turbulence– Icing layers

• Characterization of weather forecast uncertainty for contingency planning

• High-level winds aloft– Forecasted winds up to FL600 to enable

time-based integration

• Tactical weather avoidance for BVLOS

Gaps being translated into research roadmap based on magnitude and importance

‘Small’ UAS ‘Large’ UAS

Focus on weather that impacts UAS operations


1. Evaluate Numerical Weather Model performancea) Determine 80m and 10m HRRR forecast performance over a variety of geographic areasb) Determine accuracy of 80m and 10m HRRR analysis field over a variety of geographic areas

2. Quantify the sensitivity of time-based operation performance to wind model accuracya) Consider wide range of UAS platformsb) Model and simulate UAS operations in historical wind conditionsc) Establish recommendations for wind model accuracy to support sUAS time-based operations

Preliminary Roadmap

Example: Winds aloft below 500 feet to support time-based operations

• Research roadmap connects UAS weather gaps to R&D activities

• Roadmap topics include:– Evaluation of weather observation, model, and forecast performance (spatial and temporal)– Determination of weather requirements to support UAS operations– Dissemination of restricted or unobservable weather data to the UAS operator– Development of advanced weather technology to address UAS weather gaps


• Current weather information may not meet needs of UAS operations

• FAA / Lincoln study is developing preliminary UAS weather research roadmap– Covering broad spectrum of UAS classes and mission types– Surveying stakeholders: vehicle- and mission-specific requirements– Correlating against current weather information sources to identify gaps

• Potential opportunity for new weather-based decision support tools to provide safety and operational benefits– Current weather products and tools may be tailored for specific ops– Wholly new data sources and products may be required

Summary


Questions?

[email protected]

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