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Weather Bureau Forecasters 1899 TV weather reporter William Carlsen, using gimmicks (whip cream) to forecast weather. Milwaukee, WI, 1955 Weather Forecasting: Three centuries in thirty minutes

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Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientists who care for their reputation venture to predict weather. Francois Arago, 1786-1853

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Robert FitzRoy London, 1861 Father of the Weather Forecast

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Elias Loomis 1811-1889 Weather Map, 1870 Such a set of maps would be worth more than all hitherto done in meteorology. The subject may nigh be exhausted. But one year of maps would be needed, the storms of one year are probably a repetition of those proceeding.

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Great Lakes ship, 1864 On Great Lakes in 1868 1,100 ships damaged, 321 mariners killed

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Cleveland Abbe, Cincinnati, OH 1838-1916 1 st Chief Meteorologist US Army Signal Service We do not propose to guess at weather we leave that to the almanac makers, but we shall be able to assert the nature of the weather up to four days in advance.

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Cold wave Rain or snowFair weather US Post Office Weather flags - 1873 Local rain or snow

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First known photograph of a tornado 1884

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Weather Bureau Office 1900

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Waves from Ike crash over the Galveston Seawall in front of the memorial to the Hurricane of 1900 (over 6000 died) Houston Chronicle Photo

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Isaac Cline Weather Bureau Forecaster Galveston, TX 1900 The opinion that Galveston will at some time be seriously damaged by a hurricane is simply an absurd delusion and can only have its origin in imagination and not from reasoning.

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The Strand, Galveston, TX 1900

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Path of the Galveston, TX hurricane September 8, 1900

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Galveston, TX, September 1900 Waves = 15 ft, Galveston = 8.7 ft

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Galveston, September 1900

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The Track of Great New England Hurricane of 1938 The storm was into Connecticut before the warning was issued for Long Island The hurricane was tracking north at 60 mph when it hit Fire Island, which was hit by 15-20 foot storm surge A wind gust of 186 mph was recorded at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts.

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Scenes from southern New England during/after the Hurricane of 1938

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In New England an estimated 275 million trees were destroyed 700 lives were lost. Almost 9000 homes destroyed

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The Greatest Forecast Ever Made

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Gen Eisenhower wanted: Full moon 40 minutes of daylight Low tide Good weather

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600 warships 4,000 troop ships 11,000 aircraft 160,000 troops

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U.S. Weather Bureau staff Green Bay 1943-44. Eleanor, Winnie, Hilda (in charge), Marian. Weather Bureau: 1941 - 2 women 1945 - 900 women Hilda climbing a 40 foot tower (on top of a six story building) to fix the wind equipment - 1943

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Although much better than what meteorologists had during the Normandy Invasion, these maps were a far cry from what was to come. In the 1980s (and first part of the 90s) forecasters received their maps via a printer. These computer models projections of the futurewere one dimensional and monochromatic

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In the 1980s and 90s, the NWS used a system called AFOS to look at weather maps. Images were again monochromatic. This could only display maps; satellite imagery, lightning activity, and radar had to all be viewed on different machines/ screens.

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NOAA Geostationary Orbiting Equatorial Satellite (GOES), visible image GOES satellites orbit 22,400 miles over the earth, remain over one spot 1980s the decade of the satellite

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Doppler radar images from the Oklahoma City radar May 4, 1999 Moore, OK F5 tornado Reflectivity Velocity Green = toward the radar, Red = away Intensity key 1990s the decade of the radar

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Compare the radar of the past to todays. This 1944 thunderstorm image looked quite similar to what offices were using almost fifty years later in 1992 And this regional image which was captured during the June 29, 2012 derecho

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In the early 2000s, the NWS made a quantum leap in how forecasters looked at data to make forecasts/look at radar/many other products. AWIPS integrated all of the models/surface data/radar/satellite/lightning/hydrology. Instead of needing multiple display systems, now there was one. 2000s and 2010s (so far) the decade(s) of the computer

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AWIPS allows forecasters to have multiple windows of model guidance and real time information! This is a satellite image from the remnants of Sep 2004 Hurricane Ivan (40 tornadoes in VA that day a record!) with surface observations overlaid. In the upper left window is a radar image. Lightning in purple

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The observations taken by the weather balloon paint a picture of the upper atmosphere: the temperature, moisture content, and winds. The information obtained by the balloons globally is fed into computers that create the weather models used by forecasters. The balloon information received on the morning of the Feb 6, 2010 snowstorm One of our incredibly dedicated staff who take launch those balloons in all types of weather Temperature trace Dewpoint (moisture) Wind speed and direction

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What Goes Into Todays Forecast? Upper Air Data Surface Observations Satellite Data Radar Data Model Guidance Forecaster experience/knowledge is the MOST IMPORTANT thing that goes into a forecast.

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Making the Forecast Some of the elements that we forecast: Temperature/Dewpoint Visibility Sky cover/cloud height Wind Speed/Direction Probability of Precipitation Amount of Rain/Snow Type of Weather : (Rain/Snow/Freezing Rain/ Thunder/Fog) Wave Height We use computer tools to draw gridded forecasts for all of these parameters. We take area-specific effect into account, such as the elevation of the Highlands and Shenadoah National Park (over 3000) and the waters of the Chesapeake Bay.

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Each county in our forecast area is its own forecast zone. AWIPS takes all of the gridded parameters the meteorologist has compiled, and software converts the images into a worded forecast Pictures to Words

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The gridded database allows any person with a computer to receive a forecast for their specific location just mouse over a spot and click

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The point and click forecast. You can get this for any location in the country, start from weather.gov

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weather.gov/washington or weather.gov/baltimore Latest Watches/Warnings/ Advisories Hazardous Weather Outlook Local Forecast Also check out http://mobile.weather.gov (geared for cell phone browsers)

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MARINE FORECASTS We issue wind, wave and weather forecasts for the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay

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And aviation forecasts at six airports including BWI, Washington National, and Dulles comprising cloud height and coverage, wind speed and direction, visibility, and any significant weather

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And so weve gone from this

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To thisNWS Sterling Personnel

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Questions? Wrangell-St. Elias National Park, June 2012