we know enough to at least start

We know enough to at least start

Michael A. TaylorA. Anthony Chen, Tannecia Stephenson Jayaka Campbell, Rhodene Watson, AMD

Amarakoon

Climate Studies Group, MonaDepartment of Physics

University of the West Indies, Mona

Climate change andsustainable development

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ProjectionsPractical Links

Conclusion

Climate change is happening…

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Conclusion

'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.'

'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. - IPCC (2007)


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For precipitation, analysis of updated trends and results for regions that were missing at the time of the TAR show increases in heavy events for the majority of observation stations, with some increase in flooding. This result applies both for areas where total precipitation has increased and for areas where total precipitation has even decreased. Increasing trends are also reported for more rare precipitation events…


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Climate models under various scenarios predict 1.4 – 5.8o C increase between 1990 and 2100.

Larger than any century scale increase ever seen before!


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Conclusion … Implications for the

Caribbean which is very climate sensitive.

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Agriculture

Tourism

Fisheries

Water

Infrastructure

Health


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Agriculture Varying productivity due to floods and drought

Tourism Less demand – warmer world

Fisheries Supply less - warmer ocean rising sea levels

Water Variable supply - less rainfall

Infrastructure

Damage to coastal infrastructure - storm surge

Health More dengue - warmer temps


IMPACTS

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Agriculture Varying productivity due to floods and drought

Protected agriculture

Tourism Less demand - warmer world

Diversified tourism

Fisheries Supply less - warmer ocean rising sea levels

Diversification of livelihood

Water Variable supply - less rainfall

Efficient usage

Infrastructure

Damage to coastal infrastructure - storm surge

Vulnerability mapping for zoning

Health More dengue - warmer temps

Epidemic alert systems


IMPACTS Adaptation


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… Adapting to climate change is a means of pursuing sustainable

development

… So why aren’t we doing it?


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Knowledge deficiencies“Don’t know enough about climate

change impacts on the region to either justify or risk action”

… So why aren’t we doing it?

Information NeedsRelevance – Targeted climate change info. Not globe, Caribbean.Appropriate Scale – Country and station level not globeConfidence – Trust the info.


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Conclusion

We know more than we think we do!

Information exists today satisfying 3 criteria.

Illustrate with work of the Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM)

Dept. of PhysicsUniversity of the West Indies.

Caribbean Climate Dynamics

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Data Study: Taylor and Alfaro (2002)


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Mean Annual Rainfall

1. Dry Season

December - April

3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - August –November

2. Rainfall Season May - NovemberPeaks in September/October


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Movement of North Atlantic High (NAH)

•April - November

•Reduced vertical shear

SST Increase

•April-October (peak)

•>27oC

Easterly/Tropical Waves

•Late May-November

•3-5 days

•Strengthen


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…by understanding the dynamics of the mean we can therefore understand

the deviations from the mean!

We have a good understanding of the dynamics of the mean

Caribbean climate…and…


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El Niño and Caribbean RainfallSpence, Taylor et al. (2004)Taylor, Enfield et al. (2002)

Stephenson, Chen, Taylor (2007)

Use SVD and Correlation Analysis to analyse patterns of tropical

sea surface temperatures (SST) that co-vary with Caribbean

rainfall.


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El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall

•El Niño (La Niña) is an unusual warming (cooling) of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

•Prompts changes in weather patterns across the globe.

•Occurs irregularly at approximately 3-6 year intervals.

El Niño

La Niña


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160W 120W 80W 40W

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FMA

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ENSO SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during November - January

Wet north – dry south


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MJJ

ASO

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Atlantic SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during May - July

Wet Caribbean (El Nino+1 year)


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Atlantic SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during August - October

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MJJ

ASO

Dry region


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Since El Niño predictable with lead time of few months…

…possible to do seasonal forecasts for Caribbean region….


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Plot of forecasted versus observed rainfall anomalies for southeastern Caribbean for model using El Niño (September-October) predictor. Dashed lines and circles represent forecasted values (Ashby, Taylor et al. 2005)


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Since El Niño predictable with lead time of few months…

…possible to do seasonal forecasts for Caribbean region….

…and enable planning!

Future Caribbean ClimatePremise

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Conclusion Info exists

on future climate for Caribbean

from GCMs….

Model-simulated temperature/ precipitation response to forcing scenario. Scenario is depicted by colour of the point (A1FI - red, A2 - grey, B1 - green and B2 - violet). Ovals show 95% Gaussian contour ellipses of the natural internal tridecadal variability.

…but scale too coarse!

Hotter

Wett

er


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•PRECIS is a regional model (15 km - 50 km).

•Run over a Caribbean domain exclusively

•Forced at boundaries by GCMs

•Performs reasonably well with current climate.

•Run for a time slice in the future (2070-2099), A2, B1 and B2 scenarios

•Run for baseline (1960-1990) to evaluate change.

•Done as part of a collaborative project (Cuba, Belize, Barbados)

PRECIS Caribbean Project


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Conclusion

PRECIS Caribbean Project

Cuba(INSMET)

Carib basin50 x 50 km

B1 (30 yrs)A2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)Reanalysis (15 yrs)

Jamaica – UWI (Mona) Carib Basin50 x 50 km

A2 (30 yrs)B2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)

Barbados – UWI (Cave Hill)

Eastern Caribbean25 x 25 km

A2 (30 yrs)B2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)


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Temperatures

Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm.Warming between 1 and 5oC

Warming greater under A2 scenario.

Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.


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Temperatures

Warming is year round.

Nowhere and at no time in the year is the Caribbean cooler than present.

Summer warming greatest.

Under A2 warming up to 5oC in larger islands

Sea surface temperatures also warmer

DJF

JJA


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Rainfall

For both scenarios Caribbean is in general drier.

Up to 30% drier.

Drying more severe under A2 scenario

Far north Caribbean however could be wetter


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Temperatures

Southern Caribbean dry year round.

Far north Caribbean wetter between December and March

Drying in late season (when normally get most rain) most severe.

DJF

JJA


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Vertical shear

Annual

SON

In the mean there is stronger shear in main Caribbean basin, particularly across the main development region (MDR)

In wet season, the change in shear is positive and high.

Pattern consistent with rainfall changes.

Pattern for A2 most severe.

Strengthening at lower levels evident (not shown)


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Cloud Cover

Jan

Sept

General reduction in cloud cover year round in main Caribbean basin.

Pattern consistent with rainfall changes.

Reduction for A2 most severe.


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Extreme weather

PRECIS

•Can identify hurricane like features


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Other work underwayStatistical downscaling –

generating future climates at country and station scale e.g.

Kingston Airport, Piarco.


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Confidence?

• Trendlines significant at 1% level

•Frequency of Hot days and hot nights increasing

•True for rest of world. (nights > days)

Peterson, Taylor et al. (2002)


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Confidence?

Peterson, Taylor et al. (2002)

• Trendlines significant at 1% level

•Frequency of cool days and nights decreasing

•True for rest of world.

Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise

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Dengue

The Threat of Dengue Fever – Assessments of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean

- Chen et al. (2006)

Funded by Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)


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Dengue


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Dengue

• Climate data from regional Met Services. Temperature (maximum, minimum and

mean) and Precipitation, daily or monthly values. Climate data for Jamaica were supplemented by gridded data from Tyndall Centre, UEA, UK (Tim Mitchell).

• Epidemiological data from the Caribbean Epidemiological Center (CAREC) In the form of reported dengue cases and

vector indices, annual, 4-week periods. • Data analysis: Analysis of time series of

reported cases, rates of change, mean temperature, mean precipitation, temperature and precipitation anomalies. Study of the climatology Statistical tests for correlations and multiple linear regression.

• Main study period: 1980 to 2001.• Data from Jamaica and Trinidad.


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Dengue

Time series graph of dengue cases (4-Week periods in Trinidad & Tobago)

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Dengue Cases

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Seasonal pattern to

dengue outbreaks

…


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Dengue

Hot Wet

Dengue

Time series graph of rainfall, dengue cases & average temperature(4-Week periods in Trinidad & Tobago)

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Rainfall Dengue Cases Average Temperature

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


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Dengue

Linkage to El NiñoDue to

rainfall and temperature changes


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Conclusion

Dengue

Future 2o C rise in

temperature suggests increased dengue

threat due to climate

change


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Conclusion

Dengue

M

N

N

M

T

1

Moving Average Temperature Index

TN is the average temperature during the Nth 4 week period or month

M = 1, 2, 3,…13 or 12.

Examples:

For 1st 4 week period or 1st month, M=1 and

For 2nd period or month, M=2 and

For 4th period or month M= 4 and

(MAT) =

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Dengue

MAT useful as

forbearer of epidemic

onset…

RC,Moving Average T vs 4-Weekly periods (1992, 1994, 1999, & 2001) T & T

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4 WEEK PERIODS

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RC-1994

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MAT-1992

MAT-1994

MAT-1999

MAT-2001

27.2 C Line

Climate-Sectoral Linkages

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Dengue

MAT useful as part of

disease early

warning scheme!

Climate-Sectoral Linkages

MAT & Climate

forecasts

Ongoing epidemiological

surveillance and

environmental observations

Disease

watch/warning

Risk analysis,

vulnerability

assessment

Response

Strategy

Public

communication

Evaluation,

feedback

Ongoing prevention and evaluation

Surveillance Analysis Response

Response Implementation


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Conclusion

Water

Similar work ongoing for the water sector in Jamaica. (Chen and Taylor, 2008)

Avg A2B2 Annual % Change for Box 3 Area

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-5

0

5

2015s 2030s 2050s 2080s

Hope R.

Manley

URCR

Box 3

Average of A2 and B2 projected changes in streamflow at Hope River and precipitation at Manley, URCR and in region 3 for 2015s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s

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Conclusion

We know more…Caribbean Climate Science has advanced much in recent past

• Good idea of dynamics governing mean Caribbean climate and those governing deviations from mean - RELEVANCE

• Good idea of future climate of Caribbean as a whole and of individual territories – SCALE

• Good idea of how climate changed in past – CONFIDENCE

• Good idea of some linkages between society and climate – RELEVANCE

Knowledge deficit perhaps not as wide…

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Conclusion

Adaptation is a viable option…?• Efforts underway to mainstream

climate predictions into daily life.• We are in a good position (at least

based on what is known) as a region to assess the threat due to climate change and to suggest reasonable adaptation options.

Should not be afraid to do so… less fear and trepidation.

Adaption options = Sustainable development options

• Begin to adapt to climate change => on path to sustainable development

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Thank You

We know enough to at least start