WCRP and S2S

NOAA, MD, 14 Feb

M. Rixen, JPS

Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports

climate-related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve

(1) climate predictions and

(2) understanding of human influence on climate

“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”

(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

S2S• Vision: seamless weather-climate services

• Mission: improve forecast skill at intraseasonal range

• Strategy:– International research collaboration– Common infrastructure and information sharing

Priorities

• Need to build up the momentum generated by the conference and engage community

• 5 sub-projects: objectives, timetable, expected outputs, organization and coordination

• Systematic errors seems to be a major stumbling block to improve S2S predictions significantly: low hanging fruits? Maritime Continent? Atmospheric model? Coupling?

• Running and archiving models will not be enough: need dedicated efforts on analyzing problems and diagnosing causes: this goes beyond T or P metrics

• Limit of deterministic models & (statistical) MM approaches: are we exploring this enough?

Field experiment/YMC

• Need to analyze pros/cons:– What can be exploited from existing databases?– Galvanizing community around a focused and

exciting challenge– Priorities: area? processes?– Critical mass of observations?– Return on investment? Alternatives?– Informal discussions with ONR seem positive

• Summer school– Synergies with WGSIP?– Focus on LDCs/Africa?

• Funding: Future Earth, GFCS, etc

Thank you for your attention!