water year 2009 forecast review: green river basin crfs november 19, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
Water Year 2009 Forecast Review: Green River Basin
CRFS
November 19, 2009
Green River above Fontenelle
Elkhart Park June Precipitation
6.9
4.6 4.6
4.2
3.5
3 2.9 2.9 2.8
2.32.1 2 1.9 1.8
1.61.4 1.3
1.1 1.1 1.1 1 10.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
0.4 0.4 0.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ranking (29 years)
inc
hes
June Average (inches)
Years: 1981-20092009
Elevation 9,400 feet
Note: June Precipitation (6.9 inches) was 52% of the Precipitation received during April-July (13.3 inches) and was 25% of the Precipitation received during October-July (27.1 inches).
Green River Above Fontenelle(> 20 Years POR)
967 kAF / 113%
Forecast RFC NRCS COORD
Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG
Jan 1 775 855 765 701 840/780r 780 765 89%
Feb 1 722 820 765 774 850/795r 795 765 89%
Mar 1 690 680 690 712 785/720r 715 715 83%
Apr 1 733 686 730 713 770/720r 715 715 83%
May 1 770 708 750 811 835/785r 750 750 87%
Jun 1 640 719 660 720 810/760r 750 705 82%
Streamflow Scatterplot ~ 1991-2009 ~ Coordinated Forecast
Green - Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr (GBRW4)
AprilJanuary June
Green River above Flaming Gorge
Green River above Flaming GorgeBasin Conditions WY2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MonthlyPrecipitation
Water YearPrecipitation
Snow WaterEquivalent
% o
f 197
1-20
00 a
vera
ge
As of Jan 1
As of Feb 1
As of Mar 1
As of Apr 1
As of May 1
As of Jun1
As of Jul 1
As of Aug 1
Green River above Flaming Gorge (>20 year POR)
Flaming Gorge Local(> 20 Years POR)
1197 kAF / 101%
Forecast RFC NRCS COORD
Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG
Jan 1 1010 1061 900 963 1080/1060r 1020 910 76%
Feb 1 815 1056 910 982 1120/915r 915 910 76%
Mar 1 750 968 820 922 1070/970r 845 845 71%
Apr 1 820 1020 820 990 1070/985r 800 810 68%
May 1 929 1190 890 1148 1200/1060r 890 890 75%
Jun 1 783 929 805 1013 1190/1050r 890 850 71%
Streamflow Scatterplot ~ 1991-2009 ~ Coordinated Forecast
Green – Flaming Gorge Reservoir (GRNU1)
January April June
Yampa River Basin
Yampa and WhiteBasin Conditions WY2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
MonthlyPrecipitation
Water YearPrecipitation
Snow WaterEquivalent
% o
f 197
1-20
00 a
vera
ge
As of Jan 1
As of Feb 1
As of Mar 1
As of Apr 1
As of May 1
As of Jun1
As of Jul 1
As of Aug 1
Little Snake R. near Lily(>20 Years POR)
522 kAF / 142%
Forecast RFC NRCS COORD
Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG
Jan 1 348 355 360 319 340/345r 345 350 96%
Feb 1 410 415 415 416 420/395r 400 400 110%
Mar 1 411 439 430 433 430/430r 420 430 118%
Apr 1 464 467 430 471 440/430r 430 430 118%
May 1 542 476 505 472 420/490r 490 490 134%
Jun 1 457 418 455 423 370/440r 440 445 122%
Yampa River near Maybell(>20 years POR)
1137 kAF / 115%
Forecast RFC NRCS COORD
Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG
Jan 1 890 913 900 888 845/940r 940 910 76%
Feb 1 1068 975 1030 1113 1060/1120r 1100 1070 108%
Mar 1 968 1080 1070 1088 1050/1120r 1070 1070 108%
Apr 1 1010 1027 1010 1109 1070/1070r 1070 1070 108%
May 1 1034 - 1020 989 965/1060r 1050 1040 105%
Jun 1 969 932 955 854 930/990r 990 965 97%
Historic Peak Average Peak Flood Flow 2008 Peak 2008 Date Normal time
Yampa Deerlodge Park 32,300 13,955 17,200 21,800 23-May 5/11 - 6/6
Isssuance Date 90% 75% 50% 25% 10%
1-Mar 11,700 13,500 15,500 17,700 22,900
1-Apr 13,400 15,000 16,300 18,400 22,000
7-May - - 14,200 15,700 17,500
2009 Mean Daily Peak:
15,600 cfs on 5/27
Yampa River at DeerlodgePeak Flow Forecasts (mean daily cfs)