Water Resources & Health: New threats from

disrupting the earth’s climate

Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director

Rotary Club of Madison

May 7, 2014

2

Courtesy: Prof.

Paul Block

World’s Water

USGSThis tiny sphere is all the World’s Water

Courtesy: Prof.

Paul Block

Tuesday’s News

Temperature data

“The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data .. show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06]°C, over the period 1880–

2012” IPCC AR5 WG1 2013

Global Temperature Anomaly 1850-2012

IPCC AR5 WG1 Figure SPM.1

Glacial flow:

2001:

7 km/yr

2006:

14 km/year

Glacier Bay National Park, 1941. The glacier is 2,000 feet thick.

USGS photo, available www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2005/01/29.html

Glacier loss

Glacier Bay National Park, 2004. Receding glacier, new vegetation since 1941.

Photo: USGS/Bruce Molnia, available www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2005/01/29.html

Semi-Arid and Arid Sub-Tropics and Tropics & Areas w/

High Population Density

In the 20th century the world population

tripled – while water use multiplied six-fold! 10

Courtesy: Prof.

Paul Block

By 2025 two thirds of the people in the

world are expected to live in areas of

water shortage or stress.

Future

summers

warmer than

warmest on

record

Today’s 1 billion

at risk for hunger

could double by

mid-century.

Battisi and Naylor, Science

2009

Typhoon HaiyanPhilippines, Nov. 8, 2013

Hurricane Strength & Sea Surface

Temps. Emanuel, 2005

Surface °C ∆ last 100 yrs

Source: NASA GISS

Sea level rise threatens coastal

fresh water aquafers

Daily hospitalizations for diarrhoea, by daily temperature, Lima, Peru.

(Shaded region corresponds to 1997-98 El Niño event)

Checkley et al, Lancet 2000 (J. Patz PI)

Daily hospitalizations for diarrhoea

Daily temperature

19971993

Overall estimate from regression analysis: 7% increase in daily cases per 1o C rise

5oC

+33%

El Niño

Heating the

planet…

It’s not just

about warming.

Floods

USA: Combined sewer

overflows (CSOs)

1.2 trillion gal. of sewage & stormwater a year

discharged during combined sewer overflows

– would keep Niagara Falls roaring for 18 days

CCCCeeeennnntttt eeeerrrr ffffoooorrrr WWWWaaaa tttteeeerrrr aaaannnndddd HHHHeeeeaaaalllltttthhhhCWHCWHJOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITYJOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY

Courtesy: K. Schwab

U.S. CCSP, 2008Globally Averaged

In Future, when it

rains…it will pour.

By mid-century, Chicago

region may experience 50-

120% increase in CSO

events (Patz et al. 2008)

Bradford Beach

South Shore Beach

Bradford and South Shore Beach on Lake Michigan

E. coli CFU/100 ml

235-999

0-100

100-235

1000-9999

10,000-20,000

Rainfall

Urban stormwater

Sewage overflow

Courtesy: Sandra

McLellan

UW-Milwaukee

Monday’s News

CLIMATE

CHANGE

Temperature Rise 1

Sea level Rise 2

Hydrologic Extremes

Urban Heat Island Effect

Air Pollution &

Aeroallergens

Vector-borne Diseases

Water-borne Diseases

Water resources & food

supply

Mental Health &

Environmental Refugees

Heat StressCardiorespiratory failure

Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma

MalariaDengueEncephalitisHantavirusRift Valley Fever

CholeraCyclosporaCryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis

MalnutritionDiarrheaToxic Red Tides

Forced MigrationOvercrowdingInfectious diseasesHuman Conflicts

1 3°C by yr. 21002 40 cm “ “IPCC estimates

Patz, 1998

HEALTH EFFECTS FROM DISRUPTING CLIMATE

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

1- Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

2- Achieve universal primary education

3- Promote gender equality and empower women

4- Reduce child mortality

5- Improve maternal health

6- Combat major diseases (HIV/AIDS, malaria, others)

7- Ensure environmental sustainability

8- Develop a global partnership for development

Reducing fossil fuel use:

An opportunity for improving health

We can reduce:

The 3 million annual deaths

from urban air pollution

The loss of 3.2 million deaths,

from physical inactivity

Global Burden of Disease Report, 2013

Co-benefit of 0.7 to 4.7 million deaths/yr.

and increased crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric

tons/yr due to ozone reductions in 2030

Shindell….J Schwartz… et.al.

Science, 2012

• Cost of cleaner energy:

< $30/ tCO2

West et. al. 2013

• Benefits of

cleaner

energy:$200*/

tCO2WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???

(* Range: $50 to $380)

For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater

Health system

strengthening