water quality planning
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Water Quality Planning
modelling for
decision making
Tony Warn MBE
17 February 2016
Catchment Management and Implementation
![Page 2: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Tony Warn …
£20 billion of improvements
models: RQP, SIMCAT
![Page 3: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
where is the red on the map ? ?
what caused it ?
how confident are we ?
what can we do ?
is it worth doing ?
decision making ...
help
from
models
![Page 4: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
emphasise ...
• the “science” of taking decisions
• not the “science” of rivers
![Page 5: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• use a correct form of standards and targets
• know our errors
this means we:
![Page 6: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
simplest requirement …
standards are means or
percentiles
to do the mixing correctly
to assess compliance
![Page 7: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
31 million seconds in a year
we take 12 samples ?
errors because…
![Page 8: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
2.115
1.5 to 3.1
know our errors ...
![Page 9: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
so don’t
elaborate on
the details …
what details?
![Page 10: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
depth, width …
time of travel …
hour-by-hour simulation …
chemical speciation …
settlement, re-suspension ...
rainfall – run off …
sewers ...
event duration ...
monthly breakdowns ...
![Page 11: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
100%
good poor badmoderate
![Page 12: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
good poor badmoderate
45%30% 20% 5%
![Page 13: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
25% of face-value classes are wrong
Good
![Page 14: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
GOOD - 95% confidence
GOOD - 75% confidence
GOOD - 50% confidence
Not GOOD - 50% confidence
Not GOOD - 95% confidence
![Page 15: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
investigate
actions needed to
meet targets
![Page 16: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
... for example
•national controls
•site-specific controls
•a mix of these
![Page 17: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
national controls?
• uniform standards on all discharges?
• a ban on chemicals?
• limits on land-use?
![Page 18: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
few data (big errors)
• weaken case for site-by-site controls
• promote regional or national controls
![Page 19: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
• work out controls
• quantify the errors
• relate to national targets
![Page 20: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
SIMCAT calculates … river quality
compliance with standards
breakdown of causes of bad quality
actions to meet targets
for a single discharge, a small river, catchments
or the whole country
industrial investment
diffuse pollution
growth and climate change
new laws and policies
![Page 21: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
mixingflow and
concentration
flow and
concentration
flow and
concentration
![Page 22: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Monte Carloc
f
C
F T
![Page 23: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0.6
find control that
meets the standard
(a mean of 0.6)
43
![Page 24: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
29 - 56mean = 43
take note of errors ...
43
![Page 25: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
how
SIMCAT
works
![Page 26: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
log-normal, etc …
standard deviation
mean
![Page 27: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
flow and pollutants
![Page 28: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
natural purification
![Page 29: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
speciation
total copper = dissolved + solid
+=
![Page 30: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
discharge
![Page 31: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
intermittent
discharge
![Page 32: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
rainfall ...temperature
correlation
![Page 33: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
diffuse pollution
![Page 34: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
abstraction
![Page 35: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Reach
discharge abstraction
sampling point flow gauge
Reach
![Page 36: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
0
7
0 10 20 30 40
distance
standard
![Page 38: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
distance
standard
7
0
![Page 39: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
breakdown of loads from 100’s of discharges
backtracking…
![Page 40: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
%
Wellington STW 15.1
Brickton STW 0.4
Allied Industries 32.7
Appleford STW 2.5
Intermittent 4.9
Storm Overflow 19.1
DIFFUSE (agriculture) 25.3
cause of river 90-percentile
concentration
74.7
![Page 41: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
diffuselivestock
highways
mines
urban run-off
land drainage
atmospheric
arable
![Page 42: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
national and
regional
summaries
![Page 43: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
18
102439
%
length
8
50,400 km
current quality
![Page 44: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
20
-2060
%
length
-
target for
2025
national controls
site-specific controls
![Page 45: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
SIMCAT
baseline
![Page 46: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
SIMCAT –
point source
reductions
![Page 47: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
point and diffuse
reductions
![Page 48: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
% reductions
needed for
discharges
![Page 49: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
discharges: cost
billion
![Page 50: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
benefit:
billion
![Page 51: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
apportionment …
load from
discharges
Source: SIMCAT
loads from
diffuse
Based on 0.7 million sample results
![Page 52: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
SAGIS –
automate model
production
![Page 53: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Population 54 million
River Flow 2000m3/s
Waste water flow 200 m3/s
![Page 54: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Rivers rivers 45,000 km
![Page 55: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
3000large discharges
![Page 56: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
sampling sites 6000
(monthly spot samples)
River Quality Monitoring
![Page 57: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
flow monitoring 1000 sites
![Page 58: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Combined Sewer Overflows
![Page 59: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
CSO Inputs (Zinc)
![Page 60: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
septic tank - loads
![Page 61: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
land use ...
![Page 62: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
mine water
![Page 63: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
agriculture: sources of nutrients
![Page 64: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
SIMCAT – GIS interface
![Page 65: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Tony Warn
Simulation model for catchment quality
February 2016
![Page 66: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
apportionment
back-tracking
compliance
loads
EXCEL
![Page 68: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
![Page 69: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
SIMCAT –
results
![Page 70: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
SIMCAT calculates …
river quality
compliance with standards
breakdown of causes of bad quality
actions to meet targets
for a single discharge, a small river, catchments or the
whole country
industrial investment
diffuse pollution
growth and climate change
new laws and policies
![Page 71: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
emphasise ...
• the “science” of taking decisions
![Page 72: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
• know our errors
• use correct standards
important to:
![Page 73: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Water Quality Planning
modelling for investment
and decision making
Tony Warn MBE
17 February 2016
Catchment Management and Implementation
![Page 74: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
![Page 75: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
29 - 56mean = 43
take note of errors ...
43
![Page 76: Water Quality Planning](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051522/58a2d0ff1a28ab1f238bc523/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)