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Issues Affecting Water Quality and Availability in Issues Affecting Water Quality and Availability in Mexico’s Lerma River and Lake Chapala as Mexico’s Lerma River and Lake Chapala as Monitored by NASA EOSMonitored by NASA EOS

Wise, VAWise, VA

Rebecca Tate – The University of Virginia’s College at WiseRebecca Tate – The University of Virginia’s College at Wise

J. Casey Cavanagh – Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityJ. Casey Cavanagh – Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Zhaohui Chi – Texas A&M UniversityZhaohui Chi – Texas A&M University

Luis Jiménez - Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Luis Jiménez - Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de MonterreyMonterrey

José Juárez Olivas - Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de José Juárez Olivas - Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de MonterreyMonterrey

Juan Manuel Sáenz Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Juan Manuel Sáenz Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de MonterreyMonterrey

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Water Quality and Availability in Mexico’s Lerma River

• Community Concerns Water shortage due to unsustainable use of the Lerma’s water by dense population, large demand from agriculture, and large scale industrial activity Deforestation and its affect on rain rate Health effects of using contaminated water

• Potential Partners Comisión Nacional del Agua Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo Instituto Nacional de estadística y geografía

• Decision Making Process & Partner Needs Use NASA satellites to measure rain rate and water

availability as well as land use and contaminant concentrations

Science Advisors

DeWayne Cecil, PhDNational Oceanic and

AtmosphericAdministration

Jorge Garcia, PhDInstituto Tecnológico y de

Estudios Superiores de Monterrey

Luis Ángel Garza Rodríguez, PhD Universidad Regiomontana

http://www.watersongs.org/schedule.htm

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Project Methodology

Landsat 5

Satellites Utilized

Data Acquisition, Processing & Analysis

• Landsat images uploaded into ERDAS software • Satellite images imported into ArcGIS • Lake Chapala pollution concentration prediction model

created with Microsoft Visual Studio C++• GRACE – Jet Propulsion Lab• Population and agricultural data were plotted in time

series to predict their trending

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Study Area

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Our study is focused on the Lerma River and three of the five states through which it runs (Guanajuato, Jalisco, and Michoacan), as well as the river’s destination, Lake Chapala. The majority of our information is obtained from the period 2000-2010.

Study Area & Period

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Overpopulation

The Lerma River watershed is one of the most densely populated areas in Mexico. The population of our study states, included in this watershed, has greatly increased in the past two decades. This growth is proving to be unsustainable with the reduction of water availability and quality of the area’s sources, the Lerma River and Lake Chapala.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Overexploitation of Lake Chapala

• Current aqueduct withdrawals 180 Mm^3 annually from Lake Chapala Manmade desertification of Lake in 2003

• Additional aqueduct being designed to tap an additional 60 Mm^3/year• Population of Guadalajara expected to reach 7mil by 2025

http://goo.gl/Xov7u

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Water Stress

Current water stress of Jalisco is 40.76%

• Future projections place most of Mexico in serious water scarcity by 2030

• Deforestation of the area has caused a reduction in cloud cover and precipitation

• Over exploitation of Lerma has decreased expected flow rate of 1765.8 Mm3/year to 524.7 Mm3/year

70.2% reduction in flow rate• Lake Chapala was only at 68% capacity in 2009

http://www.conagua.gob.mx/english07/publications/EAM2010Ingles_Baja.pdf

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Deforestation of Region

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Agriculture Type and Efficiency

• Compared to smaller, more traditional irrigation, large scale, modern irrigation uses more efficient methods of watering plants, such as drip irrigation and sprinkler systems.

• Small scale, traditional irrigation, which comprises most of the irrigation in our study area, relies on flood irrigation and can also have less sanitary and regulated waste disposal.

Data source: http://cityfarmer.org/chapala.html

Image source: http://www.conagua.gob.mx/english07/publications/2030_water_agenda.pdf

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Land Use / Land Cover Change Map(2001-2009)

Data source: https://wist.echo.nasa.gov

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Land Use / Land Cover Change Map

Data source: https://wist.echo.nasa.gov

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Area Sown of Major Crop Products (2001-2009)

Data source: http://www.inegi.org.mx1: http://www.netafim.com/crop/corn2: http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/

• Compared with 2001, the area sown of the most popular grain maize has been decreasing in the following seven years.

• Meanwhile, the areas sown of the other two major crop products have been enlarged, particularly by Jalisco State.Crops Water Requirements

(mm/ha)

Grain maize 1350-800

Pasture 28.9x 10-4 - 12.7 x 10-4

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Health Concerns

Data source: http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/basesdedatos/

Diseases included:

•Cholera•Typhoid•Diarrhea •Malaria•Parasitical and Helminthes InfectionsCysticercosisSchistosomiasis

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Agriculture & Health Concerns

Many correlations have been found between the use of agrochemicals and the occurrence of Hodgkin’s and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

Photo source: http://healthmap.wordpress.com/Data source: http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/basesdedatos/

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Mathematical Model for Water Quality Projections

• Model will be able to predict when Lake Chapala will meet US EPA standards • Concept stems from differential equations using volumetric flow rates into and

out of a tank.• Program was entirely conceptualized and developed during Summer 2011.

Lake Chapala Lerma

River

Santiago River

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Predictions for Various Pollutants

Pollutant

Present [ ] (mg/L)

EPA Standard

Minimum Estimated Year

PO4 0.571 .025 2057

Cd 0.0096 .005 2021

TDS 837 500 2029

Pb .109 .015 2040

Hg .0006 .0002 2027

DDT 3.4 .001 2131

National Aeronautics and Space Administration DEVELOP National Program http://develop.larc.nasa.gov

Conclusions

• Lake levels of several substances (DDT, phosphates) would not reach EPA standards for several years

• Decrease in precipitation

• Increase in deforestation

• High rates of death related to agrochemical use and water pollution in our study area

• Decrease of sown area of grain maize, increase of other domestic crops that require less water

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Image source: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/12011900?source=wapi&referrer=kh.google.com