water in future cities
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Cities:Thinking for the long-term
Sir Mark WalportChief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
RCUK Water Showcase // June 30th 2015
credit: kaorihf/CC0 1.0
Foresight Future of Cities
Cities matter
Cities are dense concentrations of people, jobs, culture, productivity
Cities are the places where policy objectives succeed or fail
E.g.
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Employment
HealthGrowth
Water efficiency
Housing
Foresight Future of Cities
The UK is in the process of devolving powers to cities
The UK has been devolving powers to cities for 15 years… …the pace is now accelerating
Greater London Authority created
English Mayoral Referendums
Manchester Devolution Deal
Cities and Local Government
Devolution Bill
2000 2012 2014 20152013
City deals(Waves 1 & 2)
2007
Further powers transferred to GLA
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Foresight Future of Cities
Many recent reports on cities
What are the prominent themes and signals about the future of our cities?
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Foresight Future of Cities
What we are currently thinking:Future cities should be liveable cities
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credit: London Legacy Development Corporation
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To realise attractive future cities, there
must be greater engagement with
water as a critical development issue
Gas Street Basin, Birminghamcredit: Oosoom/CC BY-SA 3.0
Foresight Future of Cities
Cities affect water,water affects cities
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recreation
biodiversityresilience
community
health
Cities affect the natural water cycle
Water affects city
well-being & development
flash-floodingrun-off
evaporation
infiltration
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Foresight Land Use Futures recommended water issues feature systematically into decision-making on national and local development
Source: RTPI (2014)
Significant overlap between
projected future city growth and
areas of serious water stress
Foresight Future of Cities
But the nature of city
systems reveals some
fundamental challenges
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Foresight Future of Cities
Challenge 1:City systems have long cycles of impact
New towns
Green beltsCity deals
GLAService economy
Railway investment
Devolution
Municipal bonds
Car-oriented development
Digital technologies
Cotton trade
Canals
National Grid
Growth of UK Ports
Brownfielddevelopment
Welfare state
Shipbuilding
Imp
ort
ance
of
citi
es a
s au
ton
om
ou
s u
nit
s
2000s1900s1800s
Increasing obesity levels
City networks
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Foresight Future of Cities
Heritage
Attractiveness of place
Creative Economy
Teacher attraction & retention
Housing
Student performance
School capacity
Land availability
Quality urban form
EmploymentWell-being
Minimising isolation & loneliness
Neighbourliness
Cultural events& activitiesUniversities
Innovation
Economic productivity
Connectivity
New technology
Agglomeration opportunities
Short commute
Strong labour marketActive travel
Travel to work
Challenge 2:City systems are highly interdependent
ICT infrastructure
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Foresight Future of Cities
Thinking with a system-wide view
What do we have to do?Respond with appropriate ways of thinking
NOW FUTURE
Thinking with a long-term view
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Foresight Future of Cities
How can we better support this?
Greater availability of data is driving new
analytical approaches
Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for
future cities development
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Research has key role
Research required to:
• Address knowledge gaps• Drive innovation• Develop UK skills, expertise
Significant contribution by UK
Water Partnership to Foresight
Future of Cities project that maps
the current state of research and
critical knowledge gaps
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Many knowledge gaps to be addressed
Water quantity & quality
Impact of disease vectors changes
Urban pollution Invasive species Food production
changes
User behaviour
Lifestyle impacts Regulation for water
efficiency Community engagement Policy effectiveness
Infrastructure
Impact of scaling Refurbishment options Cross-sectoral links Investment approaches Smart monitoring
Groundwater
Flooding risk Sustainable urban
drainage systems Urban landscape
design
Extreme events
Water cycle patterns Risk and resilience Mitigation strategies
Ecosystem services
Biodiversity impacts Social impacts Urban farming growth Health benefits
Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in evidence types required
Local consultationand visioning
Academic reviews
Workshop feedback
Future trends analysis
Comparative data
Disruptive ideas
Aspirational visions
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Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in methods required
Speculative design
Future projections
Data analytics & modelling
Major city empowerment
London-centric
Smaller cities focus
Baseline 2037
UK national system “What-if” scenarios
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Foresight Future of Cities
Include local people
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credit: GO-Science/OGLv3.0
Foresight Future of Cities
“My purpose is to inquire into the influence which the progress of modern science and industry may exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the Future…
The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily susceptible to transformation and adornment than the Cities of Yesterday.”
Eugene Hénard (1910)
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credit: Arpingstone/PD
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected] .
@foresightgovuk
www.gov.uk/go-science