water impacts from recent u.s. landfalling tropical cyclones · 2019-07-24 · hurricane forecast...
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Water Impacts from Recent U.S.
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Ken GrahamNational Hurricane Center
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2018 Hurricane Season
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2018 Hurricane Season
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Improvements in Track Forecasting3-day Forecasts in 1990
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Improvements in Track Forecasting3-day Forecasts in 1990
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Track Forecast Success During Florence’s Approach to the U.S.
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Hurricane Florence Intensity Forecast Difficulty
Struggled with period of rapid strengthening and then over-forecast intensity near landfall
NHC Intensity Forecasts – Florence (2018)
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Track Forecasts Very Consistent in Showing Threat to the Florida Panhandle
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Intensity Forecasting StrugglesNHC Forecasts Major Hurricane but Too Low
NHC forecast above
guidance but not high
enough
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When you close your eyes, what do you see when you think of a
hurricane?
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Record Setting Rainfall 2017-18Hurricanes Harvey, Florence, and Lane have each set state
records for tropical cyclone rainfall with Harvey’s rainfall of 60+ inches setting the U.S. record
Harvey (2017) - 60.58 inchesTexas & US Record
Florence (2018) – 35.93/26.63 inchesNorth Carolina/South Carolina Record
Lane (2018) – 52.02 inchesHawaii Record
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Water accounts for about 90% of the direct deaths
Tornado 3%
Wind 8%
Offshore 6%
Other 1%
Surf 6%
Rain
27%Storm
Surge
49%
Rappaport 2014
Water is What KILLS!!!U.S. Tropical Cyclone Fatalities
1963-2012
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Water Continues to Kill
83% Water Related
2017 Fatalities* 2018 Fatalities
*excludes Maria due to uncertainty related to causes of direct deaths
69% Water Related
Water Related Water Related
Other
Other
Most Inland Flooding – Only 4% Storm Surge Related
2016 Fatalities
91% Water Related
Water Related
Other
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Water Continues to Kill
2016-18 Fatalities*
*excludes Maria due to uncertainty related to causes of direct deaths
Water Related
Other
Most Inland Flooding – Only 4% Storm Surge Related
83% Water Related
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Flood Related Vehicle Fatalities
• During the past three seasons, more than half the U.S. tropical cyclone water-related fatalities were vehicle related!
OtherVehicle
Related
2016-18 U.S. Tropical Cyclone
Water Related Fatalities
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Hurricane Florence
Excellent Forecasts – Yet 16 out of 17 flood related fatalities were in vehicles!
5-day Rainfall Forecast Observed Rainfall
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Excessive Rainfall OutlookHighlights Risk of Flash Flooding
• 54% of High Risk Days have at least 1 fatality or injury
• 73% have at least $1 million in damage
• High Risk Days account for 1/3 of flood fatalities and 4/5 of damage
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Storm Surge Forecasting
*excludes Maria due to uncertainty related to causes of direct deaths
Most Inland Flooding – Only 4% Storm Surge Related (2017-2018)
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Public Risk Perception Based on Previous Experience
• “My house is elevated, I thought we would be just fine”
• “It’s never flooded here before”
• “They always turn”
• “I thought these floods come once in a 100 years”
• “It’s just a tropical storm”
• “I live a hundred miles from the coast, I didn’t expect this”
• “This didn’t happen last time”
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Public Risk Perception Based on Previous Experience
• “I didn’t know it would be this bad, I’ll never stay again”
• “This wasn’t that bad, I’ll never leave again”
• “It was nothing when I looked a few days ago” (anchoring)
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What’s Influencing Evacuation DecisionsFrom Dr. Laura Myers Research
• Past Experience – Wasn’t that bad!• Often not to evacuate. What is there wasn’t a last time?
• Track Forecast/Cone – Overly focused on track• Impacts far reaching!
• Storm Intensity – “Just a” Category One (TS) • Focus on hazards – Cat 1’s - 175 fatalities - $103 billion in damage in
U.S. this decade
• Hurricane Warning – Tied to wind• Water – storm surge & rainfall historical most deadly
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Communicating Risk Challenge
Sandy study by Jennifer Marlon, Yale University
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Storm Surge Highly Sensitive to Track!Irma 2017
Observed
Track &
Simulated
Storm Surge
~30 nm
Sanibel Is.
Ft. Myers Beach
~50,000 people
with 3+ foot surge
~200,000 people
with 3+ foot surge
Forecast
Track &
Simulated
Storm Surge
a Day Before
Landfall
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Florence: Structure Matters
Best Track Deterministic Stronger, Smaller Storm
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Michael: Just a Little East
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Experience Based Perceptions of Risk
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When you close your eyes, what do you see when you think of a
hurricane?
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“The storm is past me,
I’m safe now”
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Indirect Fatalities Longer-Term Impacts
Most frequent factors: cardiovascular, loss of electricity, vehicle accident, and evacuation
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Where were the nation’s most powerful hurricanes five days before landfall?
Labor Day, Camille, & Michael did not exist!
Andrew
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Where were the nation’s most powerful hurricanes three days before landfall?
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Labor Day 40 mph
Where were the nation’s most powerful hurricanes three days before landfall?
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Labor Day (1935) 40 mph
Camille 65 mph
Where were the nation’s most powerful hurricanes three days before landfall?
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Labor Day 40 mph
Camille 65 mph
Andrew50 mph
Where were the nation’s most powerful hurricanes three days before landfall?
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Labor Day 40 mph
Camille65 mph
Andrew50 mph
Michael50 mph
All tropical storms! All rapidly strengthened!!
Where were the nation’s most powerful hurricanes three days before landfall?
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Thinking About Timelines
Hurricane Florence
10 days plus
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Thinking About Timelines
Hurricane Michael
3-4 days
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Thinking About Timelines
Verified Position
1PM Mon
Forecast
Position
1PM Mon
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It’s About the Impacts
Since 2010 in the U.S.,
Category 1 hurricanes*
175 direct deaths
$103 billion
*Irene, Isaac, Sandy, Hermine, Matthew, Nate, Florence
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It’s About the Impacts
Hazards Extent Far From the Center!
A Hurricane is Not a Point!
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It’s About the Impacts
Hazards Extent Far From the Center!
A Hurricane is Not a Point!
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What are we doing about it?
Mostly likely time somebody could see tropical storm force winds…
…but they could start as early as…
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Storm Surge Products Provide“Reasonable Worse-Case”
Scenario
What are we doing about it?
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What are we doing about it?
Use of Twitter, Facebook, and Facebook Live to provide live
storm updates
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What are we doing about it?
Use of Twitter, Facebook, and Facebook Live to provide live
storm updates
2018 Season Web Hits: 9,632,372,000
2018 Max One Day Hits: Sept 12, 2 days before Florence
landfall, 739,965,060
June 1 to November 30 unique devices: 32,155,492
Live Internet Broadcasts in Florence and Michael: 2.5
million viewers
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Where to NextForecast
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Goals:
• Reduce forecast (model) guidance errors, including during rapid intensification, by 50%
• Produce 7-day forecast guidance as good as the 5-day forecast guidance
• Improve guidance of pre-formation disturbances, including timing, track, and intensity forecasts, by 20%
• Potential Tropical Cyclone – add marine threat issuance
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Track Forecast Success During Florence’s Approach to the U.S.
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Hurricane Florence In-house 6- and 7-day Forecasts
Some long-range forecasts suggested Florence would re-curve over the central Atlantic
NHC Experimental 6- and 7-day forecasts
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Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 2017-2018
Even used to issue
warnings for the Cabo
Verde Islands
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Where to NextStorm Surge
• Storm Surge model improvements
– Puerto Rico storm surge modeling – 2019 Watch/Warning and Potential Inundation Forecast
– Southern California (waves too)
– Higher resolution work
• World Meteorological Organization – SLOSH expansion
• Adding waves into the SLOSH model
• Storm Surge real-time storm surge guidance from current 48 hours to 72 hours
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Where to Next
Improve hazard guidance and risk communication based on social and behavioral science to modernize the tropical cyclone product suite for actionable lead-times
for storm surge and all other threats
• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
– Web-based survey on economic value of improved forecasts
– Use study for the Cone of Uncertainty
• Supplemental
– Wait, that forecast changed? – Assess consumption and processing of a changing forecast
– NHC website – Optimizing tropical cyclone information
– Minding the Gap – looking at the product suite by evaluating partner needs
– There’s a Chance of What? – numeracy analysis of forecasters, partners, and the public when it comes to uncertainty products