Water Conflicts and the Future

What are the possible conflicts and solutions to increasing demands for water?This section looks at 4 themes:1. Trends in water demand globally and locally 2. Water players3. Responses to need to increasing water supply and the issues these

strategies raise4. The role of technology in water supply

• Read Chapter 6 Pearson sheet

Why is there so much uncertainty about future water demand and supply?

• One third of the world’s population is already short of water, and this situation will get worse as agricultural and industrial development look set to push global water demand to over 5,235km3 by 2025.

• See graph p 48 Pearson• Future predictions are uncertain due to factors such as

economic growth or depression?, slowing of population growth?, political and religious shocks affecting demography and economics and CLIMATE CHANGE

• Q - Explain why climate change might lead to problems of water scarcity in some countries.

Climate change and water

• Inequalities in access to water• Health will vary• Food and other resources may be harder to access• Inland Africans will be remaining with less water

as it moves to coastal areas• Migration and refugees• W Asia, Middle East, Central America,

Mediterranean and Amazon to be hit hardest

Present and potential water conflict hotspots• As water supply decreases, tensions will increase as different players try to access common water supplies• Many conflicts are transboundary in nature, either between states or countries

Insert Figure 2.11 page 47

River basins currently in dispute

River basins at risk in the future

Large International drainage basins

Zambezi

Orange

Okavango

La Plata

Mekong

Ganges

Ob

Lake Chad

Nile hotly disputed between Ethiopia and Sudan ,who control its headwaters, and Egypt .

Tigris-Euphrates Iraq + Syria concerns that Turkey’s GAP project will divert their water

The Aral Sea, an inland drainage basin, once the world’s 4th largest inland lake has shrunk sine the 1950s after the 2 rivers feeding it: the Amu Dayra and Syr Darya were diverted for irrigation. By 2007 the sea was 10% of original volume and split into 2 lakes. The ex soviet states are in conflict: Uzbekistan , Turkmenistan and Kazakstan.

Colorado: disputes between the 7 US states and Mexico it flows through. The river is so overused, that it no longer reaches the sea!.90% abstracted before reaches Mexico

Note: although there have been rising tensions globally, many areas demonstrate effective management to diffuse the situation and create more equitable and sustainable demand-supply balance, such as the Mekong River Committee,& the Nile River Initiative

3. Water conflicts and the future...3 scenarios:

Business as usual

The cost of water will increaseWater consumption will increase resulting in declining storesFood transfers will mitigate shortage of water in areas where agriculture declines

Water Crisis

Demand will outstrip supplyThe proportion of the world’s population without access to clean water will increaseFood insecurity and migration will increaseConflicts of water supplies (intra and inter state) become more likely

Sustainable Water

Agricultural and household water prices will double in the developed world and triple in the developing worldGlobal water consumption will fall, although the gap between per capita use will closeGreen water flows will increaseImprovements in water harvesting and farming techniques allow food yields to increase whilst water consumption declines

From: 2002 International Food Policy and Research Institute future models

• The most worrying scenario is ‘Water Crisis’ –

explain what might lead to this situation.

Water Players and decision makers• Different players have conflicting views on water insecurity• One player may have quite complex views; most Governments will have departments wanting

conservation as opposed to development• You need to identify the ‘stakeholders’ in any particular case study, and then the role of the

‘gatekeepers’ who wield power. The next slide shows a classification of players

Political: water is a human need

•International organisations e.g. UN•Government •Regional & local councils•Lobbyists & pressure groups

Economic•International: World Bank & IMF •TNCs and developers•Businesses and users

Environmental•Conservationists•Scientists & planners

Social: water is a human right•Individuals•Residents•Consumers land owners, health officials, NGOs like Water Aid

Photograph of Aral Sea with grounded tanker

Classifying the water players

Political Economic Social Environmental

Global World Bank funds megaprojects to improve supply. Has become more environmentally conscious. This group also has businesses and TNCsUN Millenium Development Goal called The Water Target:"Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation " World Health Organisation

G8 Summits : 2002 Evian action Plan, focus on water, and 2009 L’Aquila summit increased aid to poorer countries to help MDGs, + highlighted need for more integrated management

The role of NGOs such as Water Aid or GLOWS has been crucial in managing water suppliesCountries such as India, have mounted successful massive community-led campaigns on things like elimination of open defecationGovernment Health Agencies from national to local scale

WWF and Friends of the Earth campaign for full Environmental Impact Assessments of major projects likely to damage the environmentThis group will include many scientists and researchersAt a local scale NIMBY groups will campaign

National Government owned water companies, eg China

TNCs (Viendi and Suez RWE which owns Thames Water, American Water Works Companies providing technological fixes

Local

Individual 6.9 billion consumers

UN World Water Days- trying to be more sustainable?

• The importance of water in managing global issues is shown by the profile given to it by the UN:

• It declared 2005 to 2015 as the International Decade for Action, "Water for Life”.

• Every year on March 22nd the UN gives a theme to publicise current issues. 2010 World Water Day: dedicated to the theme of water quality.

• Such global action is rooted in the iconic Earth Summit on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and the creation of Agenda21 (the Blueprint for planet management at global scale)and Local Agenda 21( global problems, local action)

Previous Themes for World Water Days• 2013 Water cooperation• 2012 Water and food security• 2011 Water for cities• 2010 Water quality• 2009 Transboundary water • 2008 Sanitation• 2007 Coping with water scarcity• 2006 Water and Culture• 2005 Water for Life• 2004: Water and Disasters • 2003: Water for the Future • 2002: Water for Development • 2001: Water and Health

UN MDG TARGET set in 2000: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. The world is ahead of schedule in meeting the 2015 drinking water target.Yet a number of countries face an ‘uphill battle’: 884 million people still rely on unimproved water sources for their drinking, cooking, bathing and other domestic activities. Of these, almost 85 % (746 million people) live in rural areas.1990 to 2006, 1.1 billion people in the developing world received access to toilets, latrines and other forms of improved sanitation. But this leaves 1.4 billion people still needing such facilities if the 2015 target is to be met.

Responses: Management strategies • Water conflicts can be managed in a range of different ways • There is a spectrum of different management strategies• Some are sustainable as they balance ecological and human needs

Present policiesDriven by short term economic + political concernsOften do not include science and effective technology

Obstacles to sustainable management•Climate change uncertainty and effects•Natural variability of water•Pressures caused by human activities and rapid growth of transition economies towards a consumerist society•Increased water demands•Gross inefficiencies in use•Poor existing quality of supply across huge areas of world•Funding•Access to appropriate technology

Future policies?Longer term?Need more research, information and monitoring especially on aquifers in developing countriesMore partnerships?More community involvement?More accountable?

What is Sustainability? Millennium Ecosystem Assessment definition: A characteristic or state whereby the needs of the present and local population can be met without compromising the ability of future generations or populations in other locations to meet their needs.

Strategies rely on technology?

Hard management

Traditional ‘hard’ engineering• Dams; currently 845000 of which 5000 classed as megadams. The aim is to increase natural storage

capacity by artificial reservoirs. Rivers most at risk at present: Yangtze, Amazon, Danube and many in the Himalayas

• Channels, seen in most arid/semi arid countries whatever their economic status, eg Jonglei Canal on Nile• Pipelines eg Australia and California Aqueduct and snowy Mountains scheme Australia• Desalination plants eg in Middle East• Recharging schemes for depleted aquifers, eg North London Artificial recharge Scheme and Long Island

New York

Newer hard technologies •Tankers to transport water eg Turkey to Israel•Osmosis membranes filtering salt from brackish water eg Israel (the Ashkelon plant produces 15% of domestic demand). Also in California, Spain and China•Fertigation: fertilser and water drip feeding of crops, as in Israel

RESPONSES TO RISING DEMAND• Managing future water supplies will require action at a variety of levels, ranging from large –scale

projects funded by governments and agencies such as the World Bank down to changing consumers’ attitudes to water use at a local level.

Desalinisation – Technological Fix?

This is the removal of salt from water Cost lots, but as water scarcity increases many countries e.g Israel are

turning to this 2 methods either filtering ( Saudi Arabia) or reverse osmosis( Israel, Spain

and Australia) Have ecological impacts due to concentrated brine in the by product

What else does Technology do to solve the water crisis?

Softer more environmentally and ethically responsible approaches

• Water conservation eg targeted drip irrigation on plants in Ethiopia, includes water harvesting

• Water restoration eg Northern Aral Sea, and on smaller scale river Colne in UK

• Integrated drainage basin management , especially if bottom up and community involved.

• The 4 Rs: ie an attitudinal fix: Reduce, Respect, Reuse, Renew.....

AgricultureDrip Irrigation

Example – Ogallala Aquifer, USA

16 wireless infrared sensors have been put in field – measure crop temperature to see if they need water. If they reach a certain temperature they turn on automatically.

Also measure daily evapotanspiration rates, post them on the internet so farmers can adjust irrigation rates

Grow wheat another crops that don’t need water Allow some field to return to grasslands – make money from hunting, ecotourism and

‘dude ranches’ Problem is that government gives higher subsides for crop fields rather than grassland

filed, maybe needs to change

Ogallala Aquifer

BedzedWater efficient—Most rain water falling on the site is collected and reused. Appliances are chosen to be water-efficient and use recycled water when possible.

Sustainable Settlements

Dongtan, China

2 water systems. Clean and grey water

Low tech solutions to water : a case study

• Water management often focuses on large scale, technologically advanced mega-projects

• These often have complex costs and benefits

• Water conservation and restoration of supply have a role

• Small scale, bottom-up schemes are likely to be important in the developing world

• However, unless duplicated on large scale may be ineffective for longer term economic growth

A solution? Basic technology and information is channelled through the NGO: GLOWS( global water for sustainability project) a partnership between World Vision India and Florida International University. Methods:1. Increasing simple low tech appropriate and intermediate solutions to increase storage:•Increased rainwater harvesting•Improved storage system at a family scale: Taankas: 3 m in diameter , 3-4 m deep, most below land level with a side opening to allow surface flow in. They store about 20,000litres, and once full provide water for a family until next monsoon. 2. Using colourful drama performed by trained locals to villagers to illustrate the advantages of working cooperatively with other families and villages to reduce desertification and pollution of ground water by since aquifers are shared-if an unseen resource! (see photograph)

The problem: The River WAKAL area of Rajasthan in NW India is one of the driest and poorest areas in India. Subsistence agriculture dominates. 96% of rainfall is from the 3-4 month monsoon (late June through September.) and the traditional methods of using groundwater and conserving surface water are falling short of demands

Changes: Traditional low tech methods of water conservation.: stone dams, Persian water wheels and tube wells- but cannot cope with increased demand and increased droughts

Restoring the Aral SeaWatch the 2 news clips on the restoration http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6530000/newsid_6538100/6538199.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&nol_storyid=6538199&bbcws=1 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7479760.stm

Use this information and that in the text book to answer :

1. How have they helped to restore the sea ( include the role of key players)

2. What have been in the impacts of these plans?

River restoration – example River Kissimmee Florida

River Kissimmee – before changes

What happened – River Kissimmee

• Severe flooding on the river in 1940’s meant that this river was channelized to stop this and ease navigation

• Between 1962 and 1971 the river was replaced with a 90km channel and renamed C 38

• Also water entering the basin was controlled by storage lakes

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Changes – 1962 – 1971 United States Corps of Engineers Alter it

Impacts it had

• Less recharge in Miami’s groundwater aquifers• Salinisation of water supplies• Less water flow – was 0.42 m per second, now

0.05 m per second• 92% loss in birds• Eutrophication from nutrients - happened

further down stream

90 km Drainage Canal – C38

Restoration – what happened

• 1975 Kissimmee River restoration act passed saying they – work started in 1999, and complete in 2012.

• 11,000 hectares will be restored to wetland• Levees have been removed and meanders restored• Some parts of the canal remain to protect

settlements• Trying to allow the river to return to seasonal flow,

but progress is slow

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFg5nuMjmHU&feature=PlayList&p=840D56EFC917E200&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=24

River Restoration

Specific Technologies seen as appropriate /intermediate with less negative externalities•Water harvesting of grey water eg Belize •Micro dams serving villages eg Nepal •Water meters to reduce use eg UK•Composting latrines – seen in National Trust properties in UK to Mumbai slums!

Domestic Usagehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MDLpVHY8LE

So-called dry sanitation technologies, such as that employed in the Gebers Housing Project in Sweden, can save much of this freshwater for other applications. These decentralized systems first separate urine from faeces and then safely recycle each for use as crop fertilizers

Settlements – part 2

In the bathroom TickFit a low-flush toilet, or put a water-filled plastic bottle in your toilet tank – saves 1,300 litres per monthShorten your showers by 1 or 2 minutes – saves up to 3,000 litres per monthDon’t waste water by waiting for hot water to run, catch the cold water and use on plants – saves 900 to 1,300 litres a monthTurn off the water whilst brushing teeth – saves 13 litres a day

In the kitchenWhen washing dishes by hand, don’t leave the water running for rinsing – saves 900-2,000 litres per month.Run only full loads in the washing machine and dishwasher – saves 1,300-1,800 metres per monthKeep a bottle of water in the fridge instead of running tap water to cool it for drinking – saves 900 -1,300 litres a month

OutsideWater the garden during the cool parts of the dayTry water harvesting – catching rainwater from roofs in butts or ponds

Assess how good you are at conserving water –

Education

• In Stigomta, Sweden, they hold an annual 'Pee Outside Day' which saves 50 percent of the water normally used to flush a toilet.

• 17th April in US have pee outside day, started in Atlanta in 2007

Other Methods of meeting water shortages

1. 1970’s considered the idea of towing an iceberg from Antarctica to the Middle East

2. 2006 Thames water considered bring them from Greenland

3. Use transparent bottles, as 6 hours sunlight will destroy microorganisms and make it safe to drink