water, climate change adaptation and human security...

Water, climate change adaptation and human security:

Examples from Vietnam and the Mediterranean, Middle East and the Sahel

Fabrice Renaud, Julia Kloos, Zita Sebesvari

United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security

ASEAN-EU STI DaysWorkshop on Climate Change and Water Resources:Knowledge Gaps and Research NeedsBangkok 21-23 Jan 2014

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Introduction

Climate change

Water security will be compromised by the consequences of climate change, as the vast majority of its impacts will be on the water cycle, resulting in higher climatic and hydrological variability, with important consequences for societies

UN-Water (2013): Water security and the global water agenda

Climate change is not necessarily the biggest driver of [water] scarcity even in the most vulnerable regions

UNU-INWEH et al (2013): Catalyzing water for sustainable development and growth

Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences Earth’s ecosystem and thus the livelihood and well-being of societies

UN-Water (2010): Climate change adaptation: the pivotal role of water

Climate Change, Human Security and Conflicts

Climate change is a threat to human security (Ban Ki-moon 2011)

Lack of empirical studies explaining proposed link between climate and conflicts (Salehyan 2008, Nordas & Gleditsch 2007)

Need more in-depth empirical security-oriented vulnerability research (Barnett and Adger 2007)

Social dimension of climate change

No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. More powerful storms and floods threaten every continent. More frequent drought and crop failures breed hunger and conflict in places where hunger and conflict already thrive. The security and stability of each nation and all peoples -- our prosperity, our health, our safety -- are in jeopardy.

U.S. President Barack Obama, 2009

No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. More powerful storms and floods threaten every continent. More frequent drought and crop failures breed hunger and conflict in places where hunger and conflict already thrive. The security and stability of each nation and all peoples -- our prosperity, our health, our safety -- are in jeopardy.

U.S. President Barack Obama, 2009

Climate change

Impacts on society

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CLICO project

CLICO project• FP7 SSH research project• Jan 2010-Dec 2012• 11 case studies and 14 partners

A comprehensive regional assessment of the Climate-Water-Security-Nexus in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Sahel

Do hydro-climatic hazards such as droughts and floods exacerbate social tensions, intra- and inter-state conflicts in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel, or do they catalyze cooperation and peace?

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Theoretical background & conceptual framework

(Goulden and Porter, 2012)

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Drivers of human (in-)security and vulnerability

Climate change as an additional threat to human security

Existing tensions and competition more likely to be intensified, but depends on migitation measures and conflict resolution (Gerstetter et al. 2012a).

Social marginalization can worsen vulnerability to climate stress (Turhan 2012; Milman and Arsano 2012)).

Stifling of political debates to avoid potential conflicts can also increase vulnerabilities in the long run (D‘Alisa 2012b).

Political economy shapes socio-political insecurities.

Do not oversimplify these relations (Zografos et al. 2012). Assess and address the root causes of vulnerability and insecurity depending on the context.

Role of adaptation in human security

• Adaptive capacity of individuals, groups or nations varies depending on existing institutions and their functionality, knowledge, access to assets, preferences etc.

• Many CLICO case studies have shown how adaptation processes (individuals/groups or governed/led by the State) can both reduce or increase human insecurity and can reinforce (in)equality (Divergent adaptation (Snorek et al. 2012), Mal-adaptation (see Milman and Arsano 2012).

Adaptation can increase vulnerability and decrease human security

(c) E.Turhan

Advance knowledge management, sharing and transfer. Use different source of data and methods. Strengthen research capacity to understand, monitor and assess impacts from adaptation.

Climate change and conflict

• Diverse forms of water-related conflicts.• Violent domestic water conflicts are extremely rare (Bernauer et

al. 2012) .

• Most case studies and the large N study point towards stronger links with political, economic and social factors than with climate-related variables (Bernauer et al. 2012).

• Shared waters are more often a reason for cooperation than conflict

• Conflicts may play out over water (e.g. Israel-Palestine, Sudan)

More cooperative water-related events than conflictive ones

Foster strong institutions, democratic and politically stable states, improve coordination and adopt conflict resolution mechanisms at different scales.

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WISDOM Project

Slide 9

Visit website at:

www.wisdom.caf.dlr.de/en

WISDOM

Information

system

Knowledge management

Early warning

Socio-Economic

studies

Ecology, habitat

analyses

Water quality, pollution

Land-use change

Remote Sensing,

GIS

Vulnerability analyses

Hydrologic modelling

Information system to support regional planning activities

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Mekong Delta - Vietnam

39,000 km218 million inhabitants

2/3 used for agriculture

Supplies:50% of staple food50% fisheries60% fruit production

Image/Sensor: MODIS

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Some social & economic characteristics

Some restrictions in terms of agricultural production:Governmental control over rice production

Lack of land tenure

Limited access to capital

Limited direct access to markets

Price fluctuations (inputs and outputs)

Reduction in poverty rate (23% in 2002 to 12% in 2008), but high disparities remain

Lags behind on many socio-economic indicators related to housing, access to water and sanitation, health care, education, etc.

Garschagen et al (2012): Socio-economic development in the Mekong Delta: Between the prospects for progress and the realm of reality. In Renaud and Kuenzer (eds), The Mekong Delta System. Interdisciplinary Analyses of a River Delta, Springer, pp83-132.

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Pressure from upstream

Slide 12

Source: Kuenzer et al (2012): Understanding the impact of hydropower developments in the context of upstream–downstream relations in the Mekong river basin. Sustainability Science DOI 10.1007/s11625-012-0195-z

Climate Change:• More extreme events• Dams playing a more significant role

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Pressure from downstream

Source: Carew-Reid (2008): Rapid assessment of the extent and impact of sea level rise in Viet Nam. ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management

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Case Study – Ben Tre

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Agroecosystems in Ben Tre

Rice System

Rice – Prawn System

Photo: UNU-EHS/Huong

Intensive Shrimp System



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Differences between Agroecosystems

Rice System Rice – extensive shrimp System

Intensive Shrimp System

Freshwater

Protected by system of dyke and sluice gate

Low investment

Low return

Low ability to invest

Low risk

Freshwater and saline water

No protection against salinity

Medium inverstment

Low/Medium return

Some ability to invest

Low risk

Saline water

No protection against salinity

High investment

High return

High ability to invest

High risk

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Important Policies Shaping Land-Use Changes

Results from Focus Group Discussions , Household and expert interviews

Policy Reference ImpactEstablishment of new economic regions

QD 95 CP (1980) and QD 254-CP (1981)

• Promoting reclamation of mountainous and coastal areas for agriculture production • Increase agriculture land

Land law; Resolution 10

Land law (1988);10/NQ-TU (1988)

• Renovation on agriculture land and production management• Resulted in rapid expansion of agriculture land in the MD

Promoting economic development in the sea in the direction of industrialization and modernization

Directive 20-CT/TW (1997) • Large areas of land and surface water were converted to intensive aquaculture production

Guidelines and policies on economic restructuring and consumption of agricultural products

09/2000/NQ-CP (2000) • Big government investment in infrastructure, thus agri/aquaculture areas increased rapidly

Development and Protection Program of Aquatic Resources

Decision 131/2004/QD-TTg (2004)

•Areas of aquaculture continued to expand

Vietnam Sea Strategy up to 2020 Decree 09-NQ/TW (2007) • Aquaculture area continued to expandResolution on National Food Security

63/NQ-CP (2009) • Areas for rice production should be strictly protected, especially land under two rice crops

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Potential adaptation to salinity intrusion

Slide 18

http://wwf.panda.org

Huong/UNU-EHS (2011)

Huong/UNU-EHS (2011)

Huong/UNU-EHS (2011)Renaud/UNU-EHS (2013)

Low flows and Salinity intrusion

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Advantages and shortcomings of selected approaches to

address salinity intrusion – Case of Ben Tre Province

Options Effects on agroecosystems

Environmental externalities

Potential social consequences

Contribution to resilience

Infrastructure development

Rice-based systems can be maintained or intensified

Generation of pollution within and outside the protected system

In the absence of crop rotation, increasing use of agrichemicals

Effect on sediments and discharge

Could result in a poverty trap for some rice farmers if no diversification is possible

Social tensions

Little diversification so fragile system in case of severe pestoutbreaks or failure to control salinity

Loss of capacity to adapt toother environmental changes if remain with one productionsystem

Ecosystem-basedapproaches

Some land wouldneed to be convertedback to naturalvegetation

Increase inbiodiversity

No direct externalities Some farms wouldneed to be relocated

Resilience would beincreased as thebuffering effect wouldlimit the chances ofdamages along thecoast and furtherinland

River flowregulation

Current agro-ecosystems canbe maintained

Reduction in extent of brackish watersystems

Important externalitiesin areas directlyaffected by dam construction

Alteration of sediment and nutrient flows

Reduced stress onagricultural systemwould be beneficialas long as this isaccompanied bylivelihooddiversification

Resilience couldincrease but for themost part the regionwould be dependenton decisions takenupstream

Source: Renaud et al (submitted): Resilience and shifts in agro-ecosystems facing increasing sea-level rise and salinity intrusion in Ben Tre Province, Mekong Delta

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Advantages and shortcomings of selected approaches to

address salinity intrusion – Case of Ben Tre Province

Options Effects on agroecosystems

Environmental externalities

Potential social consequences

Contribution to resilience

Agronomicapproaches

Short cycle varieties would prove very useful. Development of further rice salinity tolerant varieties could be outpaced by increased salinity intrusion

No direct externalities

Preserve currentsystem in short termbut failure of systemin the longer term ispossible

Adapting rice to salinity without further crop diversification, salinity will compromise rice production eventually

Shifts inAgro-ecosystems

Diversification of production systems is a good short-term solution. Improved water management practice needed Possibly abandon rice production in all regions in the longer term

Increase in salinity intrusion furtherinland

Can allow to develop livelihoods adapted to both water systems, leading to diversification of agricultural production.

Adapted system

Increased resilience as agricultural systems adapted to the environmentalcircumstances

More opportunities to innovate would exist

Source: Renaud et al (submitted): Resilience and shifts in agro-ecosystems facing increasing sea-level rise and salinity intrusion in Ben Tre Province, Mekong Delta

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Diversified systems vs. Intensified systems

F. Renaud/UNU-EHS (2011)





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Outlook

Flexible institutions dealing with land use planning and agricultural production. Better cooperation between government agencies and hierarchies

Opportunity for innovation should be enhanced. Provide more freedom of choice to farmers. More complex systems might prove more resilient

For the poorer farmers:Compensation (payments for ecosystem services when dealing with coastal vegetation)

Low interest loan or crop insurance

Capacity development is crucial

Slide 22Source: Renaud et al (submitted): Resilience and shifts in agro-ecosystems facing increasing sea-level rise and salinity intrusion in Ben Tre Province, Mekong Delta

Water Pollution in the Mekong DeltaPesticide use & management

Pesticide use: more than 50 active ingredients; moderately and slightly hazardous pesticides (WHO class II & III)

Application dose: higher or equal to recommended dose

Lack of personal protective equipment during application

Treatment of leftover pesticide solution in the sprayers

Tam Nong Cai Rang

PhD Research of Dr Pham Van Toan

Pesticide Pollution

Source: Toan, PV et al (2013): Pesticide management and their residues in sediments and surface and drinking water in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Science of the Total Environment 452-453:28-39

Residue concentrations at pumping stations

T R ( n = 1 1 )S T ( n = 1 1 )C T P S ( n = 1 1 )O M P S ( n = 1 1 )T S P S ( n = 1 0 )

1 6

1 4

1 2

1 0

8

6

4

2

0

9 5 % C I f o r t h e M e a n

(p < 0.05)

µg/L

PhD

Res

earc

h of

Ms

Ngu

yen

Dan

g G

iang

C

hau

E.coli

PhD Research of Mr Gert-Jan Wilbers

Harvested rainwater quality

• 78 samples; 96% exceeds drinking water guidelines

• Contaminated with lead (Pb) from roofs

• Storage conditions and behavioral factors cause E.coli pollution

Typical storage system for drinking water in rural areas of Mekong Delta (Source: own picture)

Wilbers et al (2013): Effects of local and spatial conditions on the quality of harvested rainwater in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Environmental Pollution 182:225-232

Applied household treatment

• People store and treat before drinking

Conclusions

• Water resources globally are already under threat and CC will be a threat multiplier affecting water resources in many different ways, affecting people, their livelihoods as well as economic development

• The impacts of CC on water resources needs to be address not from a “water sector” perspective, but from a development perspective whereby adaptation is integrated in development planning

• This implies addressing water-related concerns at multiple scales of governance as well as multiple spatial scales

THANK YOU!

UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY

Institute for Environmentand Human Security (UNU-EHS)

Platz der Vereinten Nationen 153113 Bonn, Germany

e-mail: [email protected]

water, climate change adaptation and human security...

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