water and climate adaptation plan (watcap) for the sava ... · water and climate adaptation plan...
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WATER-FOOD-ENERGY-ECOSYSTEMS NEXUS ASSESSMENT IN THE SAVA RIVER BASIN
Zagreb, 6 March 2014
Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for the Sava River Basin:for the Sava River Basin:
Climate Change Predictions Climate Change Predictions for the Sava River Basinfor the Sava River Basin
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN1
for the Sava River Basinfor the Sava River Basin
Jasna Plavsic
Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) for the Sava River Basin
› Task 3: Development of the hydrologic model and simulations with future climate scenarios
› Scope of work:› Model development
› define an appropriate model structure
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN2
› define an appropriate model structure
› collect necessary data
› perform model calibration and verification
› Characterisation of future hydrologic regime
› perform hydrologic simulations with climate scenarios for 2011-2040 and 2041-2070
Hydrologic Model Development
› Sava River Basin: ~ 95,000 km2
› No previous models of the whole basin
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN3
Hydrologic Model Development
› Choice of the model: HEC-HMS
› used initially by USACE as a link to the hydraulic model developed for ISRBC
› easily obtainable by future
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN4
› easily obtainable by future users on the SRB (free of charge)
› Main pros and cons› moderate data requirements
(depending on calculation methods)
› not completely suitable for continuous simulation
Data Requirements
› Input data› daily precipitation time series
› daily temperature time series
› monthly potential evapotranspiration (seasonal distribution)
› Hydrologic data for calibration and verification
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN5
› daily flows time series
› Geographic data› sub-basin areas
› met station elevations
› elevation distribution within the basin (elevation bands)
Data Collection
› Data collection by riparian experts› lasted for 5 months (from 5 June to 24 October 2012)
› delivered:› hydrologic data at selected stations and in selected periods – daily flow rates
› precipitation and air temperature data at selected meteo station – daily data
› potential evapotranspiration data at selected stations – monthly data› potential evapotranspiration data at selected stations – monthly data
› basic information on water control facilities
› Precipitation and temperature data from Montenegro› additional data needed for the Drina Basin model
› obtained via ISRBC
› made available in February 2013
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN6
Model setup and data availability
› Choice of sub-basins, calibration and verification periods, modelling methods and data collection is an iterative process
› not all relevant data is readily available
› short calibration and verification periods
select
time period
select
subbasins
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN7
› short calibration and verification periods due to poor data availability
› Calibration 1979-1984
› Verification 1969-1974select
modelling
method
ask for
data
Hydro and meteostations
› Input Data› Precipitation stations (50)
› Temperature stations (27)
› Hydrologic stations (35)
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN8
Record extension
› Filling gaps and extending P and T records
› Records reconstructed using a regional climate model with 1 km horizontal resolution
› Poorer results for precipitation in
2940
50
60
70
Num
ber
of st
atio
ns
1961-1990
Incomplete
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN9
› Poorer results for precipitation in Montenegro (improper boundary conditions)
1930
23
16 13
0
10
20
30
Num
ber
of st
atio
ns
Incomplete record
Complete record
Sub-basin division
› Basin subdivision with respect to daily time step and to data availability and quality
› sub-basin sizes 2000-5000 km2
› 14 major sub-basins modelled
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN10
› 14 major sub-basins modelled separately
› 44 sub-basins in total
› 35 sub-basins controlled by hydrologic stations
Calibration and validation Mean monthly flows
0
500
1000
Flo
w (
m3
/s)
Sava @ Zagreb
simulation observed
4000Sava @ Slavonski Brod
0
500
1000Sava @ Zagreb
simulation observed
4000Sava @ Slavonski Brod
0
2000
Flo
w (
m3
/s)
0
2500
5000
lis 1979 lis 1980 lis 1981 lis 1982 lis 1983 lis 1984
Flo
w (
m3
/s)
Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica
0
2000
0
2500
5000
lis 1969 lis 1970 lis 1971 lis 1972 lis 1973 lis 1974
Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica
Model performance: bias (error in mean annual flow)
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN12
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
PBIAS
calibration
verification
ext. record
Model performance: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
NSE for m
onth
ly data
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN13
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
NSE for m
onth
ly data
calibration
verification
ext. record
Model application with future climate: Methodology
› Hydrologic simulations of future regime using future climate scenarios as input
› Baseline: 1961-1990
› Near future: 2011-2040
GCM/RCMs
Climate scenarios
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN14
› Distant future: 2041-2070
Hydrologic model
Climate scenarios (future P, T, PET)
Hydrologic projections
Model application with future climate: Methodology
› Change in hydrologic regime is evaluated by comparing simulated future regime against simulations with baseline climate
› Relative change evaluated rather than the absolute values
%100⋅− BASEFUT
Q
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN15
› annual change (ANN)
› winter: December, January and February (DJF)
› spring: March, April and May (MAM)
› summer: June, July and August (JJA)
› autumn: September, October and November (SON)
%100⋅
BASEQ
Climate scenarios
› Ensemble of 5 GCM/RCM outputs for A1B IPCC/SRES scenario
Climate model GCM RCM
CM1 ECHAM5r3 RACMO
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN16
CM1 ECHAM5r3 RACMO
CM2 ECHAM5r3 REMO
CM3 HadCM3Q0 CLM
CM4 HadCM3Q0 HadRM3Q0
CM5 ECHAM5r3 RegCM3
Temperature scenarios
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
temperatu
re change (deg C) CM1
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
temperatu
re change (deg C) CM2
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
temperatu
re change (deg C) CM3
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
temperatu
re change (deg C) Ensemble median
0
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
temperatu
re change (deg C)
0
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
temperatu
re change (deg C)
0
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
temperatu
re change (deg C)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
temperatu
re change (deg C) CM4
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
temperatu
re change (deg C) CM5
Precipitation scenarios
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
precipitation change
CM1
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
precipitation change
CM2
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
precipitation change
CM3
-50%
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
2011-2040 2041-2070
-50%
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
2011-2040 2041-2070
-50%
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
2011-2040 2041-2070
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
2011-2040 2041-2070
precipitation change
CM4
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%D
JF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
2011-2040 2041-2070
precipitation change
CM5
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
DJF
MAM
JJA
SO
N
AN
N
2011-2040 2041-2070precipitation change
Ensemble median
Scenarios for potential evapotranspiration
› Based on temperature scenarios and the Hargreaves equation for PET
)8.17(0023.05.0
+= TCTDRPET a
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN19
PET_1 with baseline CM
temperatures
PET_2 with future CM
temperatures
Relative change c = PET_2/PET_1
PET_0 used in model
calibration
Future PET = c * PET_0
Simulations with future climate scenarios
› Change in ensemble median values of mean seasonal and annual runoff, averaged over 50 locations in the basin
30%
40%
50%
change in m
ean flow (%
)
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN
20
11,0%
-9,0%-5,1%
0,4% -1,4%
13,0%
-11,4%-15,1%
-3,3%-4,7%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
2011-2040 2041-2070
change in m
ean flow (%
)
error bars indicate range of changes across the locations
Simulations with future climate scenarios
› Change in mean seasonal runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2011-2040 DJF
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2041-2070 DJF
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN21
scenarios Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2011-2040 MAM
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2041-2070 MAM
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
Simulations with future climate scenarios
› Change in mean seasonal runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2011-2040 JJA
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2041-2070 JJA
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN22
scenarios
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2011-2040 SON
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2041-2070 SON
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
Simulations with future climate scenarios
› Change in mean annual runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2041-2070 ANN
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
) 2011-2040 ANN
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN23
scenarios
Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
)
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5Sav
a @
Čat
ež
Sav
a @
Zag
reb
Kupa
mouth
Sav
a @
Crn
ac
Una
mouth
Sav
a @
Mač
kova
c
Vrb
as m
outh
Sav
a @
Sla
v. B
rod
Bosn
a m
outh
Sav
a @
Župan
ja
Drina
mouth
Sav
a @
S. M
itro
vica
Sav
a @
Beo
gra
d
change in m
ean flow (%
)
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
Sources of uncertainty
› Definition of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (unpredictability of future economic and societal development)
› Climate model structural uncertainty (different GCMs produce different projections for the same emission scenario)
› Downscaling and bias correction of GCM outputs
› Hydrological model structure and parameters uncertainty
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN24
› Hydrological model structure and parameters uncertainty
› Record extension
Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R. (1987) Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces, Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces,
Wiley, New York, p. 424.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
lis 1961 lis 1966 lis 1971 lis 1976 lis 1981 lis 1986 lis 1991
Flow
(m
3/s
)
Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica
simulation
observed
WATER AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN25