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Managing Water Availability and Requirementsin Pakistan: Challenges and Way Forward

Dr. Muhammad Sharif

Social Sciences DivisionPakistan Agricultural Research CouncilIslamabad - September, 2013

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8.4.4 Focusing on water conservation techniques

8.4.5 Addressing the salient public health crisis

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169. Filling the Gaps 1610. Conclusions 1711. Way Forward

11.1 Demand driven policy approach11.2 Strategy for Improved Service Provision and Strengthen

Enforcement Mechanisms for Water Use11.3 Improve Communication and Data sharing Mechanisms11.4 Promote Water Conservation Techniques11.5 Strengthen Disaster Risk Management Strategies at the

Local level

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12 . Reference 20

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Managing Water Availability and Requirementsin Pakistan: Challenges and Way Forward

1. Introduction

Water experts expect that Pakistan will shift from water stressed nation to water scarcecountry by 2030 which implies that Pakistan is heading towards serious water crises.Because of overuse and misuse of water, Pakistan is facing declining water availability interm of per capita population not in term of volume of water, growing water pollution andoverall environmental hazards. Declining water availability is mainly attributed toregulatory and institutional deficiencies, supply driven policy and strategy approach andlack of participation of public private and civil society in addressing and managing wateravailability and requirement problems in the country.

Water is essential for sustenance of live in all forms such as livelihoods, health, foodsecurity, or general economic development and fresh water is a finite resource,

progressively becoming more scarce due to persistent increases in its competing sectoraldemands (GoP, 2005). Population growth, rapid urbanization and shifts in production andconsumption patterns are major factors which are responsible for placing un-precedentedstress on water resources in Pakistan (Daanish et. al., 2013). Water is mainly used foragricultural sector, domestic use, industrial use and environmental protection where thewater scarcity and groundwater quality threaten the livelihood of Pakistani people.

This requires the assessment of water availability, variability, water distributional procedures and water requirements for understanding the reasons of declining wateravailability in the country. Supply rather than demand driven Indus Basin IrrigationSystem in Pakistan creates inequitable water distribution and inefficient water use whereregulatory and institutional inefficiencies create water dispute among the provinces andfarmers as well as litigations among farmers. Therefore, it becomes imperative to addressthe nuances of both structural and managerial obstacles of distributional inequalities andinefficient water use for suggesting way forward in Pakistan.

Following this introduction, this status paper is organized into eleven sections. Theinformation on the material and method is given in section 2. The information on thestatus of water resources availability in the country is given in section three. Theestimation of water balance is presented in section four. The information on waterrequirement/water demand is presented in section five. Section six is devoted to assessingthe water supply and demand gaps. The information on addressing the threats to wateravailability and quality is given in section seven. Challenges to effective watermanagement including institutional and legal aspects are narrated in section eight. Thestrategies for filling the water demand and supply gaps are discussed in section nine.Section ten is allocated to conclusions of understanding declining water availability in thecountry. Way forward for water resource sustaining water availability and requirementsin the country in section eleven completes this status paper.

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2. Material and Method

Literature on water availability, variability, water requirements, water sector plans,national policies and strategies on water sector was collected. End to end analysis wascarried out to assess water availability and requirements from all sources in the firststage. Secondly, water budgets for surface water, ground and rainfall water were preparedand water balances were estimated. Thirdly, the basis of area of Indus Basin, evpo-

transpiration and water use efficiency in Pakistan, the water requirements/demand forwater for the year 2012-13 was estimated. Fourthly, then water supply and demand gapswere computed. Fifthly, the challenges for the effective water management in Pakistanwere also reviewed. Finally, the strategies for filling the gaps were also reviewed andrecommendations to address those challenges were proposed.

3. Water Availability

Pakistan is one of the most arid countries in the world and possesses the worlds largestcontiguous canal irrigation system commonly known as Indus Basin Irrigation System(IBIS). The Indus River and its tributaries, Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and SutlejRivers, originate in the Karakoram, Hindukush and the Himalayan regions along the

north and northeastern borders of Pakistan and the entire Basin covers an area of about900,930 square kilometers out of which 528,156 square kilometers lie in Pakistan(Nadeem, 2010). There are number of rivers which join the river Indus from the westside, in which biggest rivers are Jhelum, Chenab and Kabul and others are Kunar, Pun,Kora. The Gomal, Kurram, Tai, Kohat Tank and several other small streams join theIndus River from the right side. The three main rivers which join Indus from eastern sideare Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, besides three minor rivers are the Haro, Soan and Siran (Khan,2008). The IBIS is the largest hydrological system and the main source of fresh water(Figure-1).

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Source : Nadeem, (2010).

Glacier melts, snow melt, rainfall and runoff supply river flows (Daanishet. al., 2013).IBIS comprises 3 large reservoirs (Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma), 16 Barrages and 2headworks, 14 inter-river links and 45 main canals commands extending for about 60,800km to serve over 140,000 farmer operated watercourses (GoP, 2010). IBIS commands16.68 Million Hectares, out of 20 million hectares of agriculture land through its largescale canal irrigation systems, 65 percent of the average river inflows are diverted for

agriculture and other economic uses (Haq et. al, 2008 & GOP, 2013). Upper Indus Basinhas more than 5,000 glaciers which cover a total glaciated area of about 15,000 sq. kmand these glaciers correspond to about 2,700 cubic km of stored volume of ice equivalentto about 14 years of average IBIS inflows.

3.1 Water Availability from IBIS

The rivers of the Basin are subject to extreme variations of flows, the normal summerdischarge being 20 times the winter minimum with mean annual flow of the Indus Riverin Pakistan since 1937-06 is 155 MAF, (Nadeem, 2010). The IBIS is receiving anaverage annual river flow of 143.18 MAF from the western rivers the Indus including

Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab since the Tarbela Dam was constructed in 1968 as measuredat the rim station (GOP, 2002). There is variability in daily, seasonally and annually riverflows of IBIS. The eastern rivers Ravi, Sutluj and Beas, and tributary contribute 8.40MAF of water in an average year (GOP, 2002, and Ahmed et. al., 2008). The inflow fromthe Makran and Kharan basins is 3.8 MAF. Thus the total mean annual flow from allwestern, eastern rivers and Kharan and Makran basis is about 155.38 MAF. Allowing forthe reduction in the contributions in the eastern rivers and the allowable uses by India onthe western rivers (10 MAF) to the total long term surface water availability in the IndusBasin is effectively equal to the inflow of the western rivers i.e. 145.38 MAF (Table-1).The estimated the long term basin-wide surface water availability is approximately 194-209 MAF of which 142 MAF is extracted in Pakistan (Daanishet. al., 2013).

Table- 1: W ater availability from IBIS during the year 2012-2013 S.No. IBIS Availability (MAF)1. Average annual flow of western rivers Indus

including Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab143.18

2. Average annual flow of Eastern rivers- Ravi, Sutlaj,and Beas & Tributary

8.40

3. Makran and Kharan Basin flow 3.84. Total 155.385. Allowing for the reduction in the contribution from

the eastern river and the allowable uses by India onthe western rivers

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6. Water available from IBIS 145.38Source: Hussain, (2007), Nadeem (2010) and Daanish et. al., (2013).

The data on daily and monthly flows of western and eastern rivers of IBIS showedvariability which affect diversion of water to canal network for irrigation where water

balance is computed taking the mean value of flows and canal diversion (GoP, 2002,GoP, 2004 and Hussain, 2007). The information on river flows and canal diversion ofwater is presented in Table-2 which is water budgeting.

The mean annual flows from all basins to Indus basin are 155.38 MAF and the river

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system losses are 10 MAF in an average year. About 105.30 MAF is diverted to canalnetwork for irrigation per annum in an average year which leaves 30 MAF water whichflows to the sea (GoP, 2002, GoP, 2004, Hussain, 2007 & Ahmed et. al., 2008).According to WSTF (2012), the average canal water deliveries in Pakistan are 103 MAF.According to GoP, (2013), the water diverted for irrigation purpose is 105 MAF, whichseems to be reasonable figure and will use for water budgeting/water balancing andestimating the supply and demand of water for the year 2012-13. The canal conveyancelosses are around 25 percent and 26.73 MAF water is lost in the canal system. Thus 78.57

MAF is available at the water courses head (Table-2). 23.49 MAF water is lost during thewater courses and 55.08 MAF is available at the farm gate. The implies that out of 105.30MAF meanly 57.69 MAF water was lost in the conveyance of canal, water courses andfield channels which is not available for crops, however it helped to recharge thegroundwater.

Table-2: Water budget of the Indus basin irrigation system (IBIS) based on average annualriver flows and average annual canal diversion for the year 2012-13

Item MAFAverage annual flow of western rivers Indus including Kabul, Jhelum andChenab

143.18

Eastern rivers and Tributary inflows 8.40Makran basin and Kharan basin 3.8All basins inflow 155.38Allowing for the reduction in the contribution from the eastern river and theallowable uses by India on the western rivers

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A. Total average surface water available 145.38B. System Losses (seepage, evaporation and spill during flow) 10C. Water flows to sea 30D. Water diverted to canal network for irrigation (A-B-C) 105.30E. Canal losses 26.73F. Canal supplies at water courses head (D-E) 78.57

G. Water courses losses 23.49H. Canal supply at farm gate (F-G) 55.08I. Field channel losses 10.53J. Irrigation water at field level (H+I) 44.55K. Field application losses 12.15L. Irrigation water for crop consumptive use (J-K) 32.40

Source: GoP, (2002), GoP (2004), Hussain (2007), Ahmed et. al. (2008) and authors calculations,

3.2 Water Availability from Rainfall

The annual rainfall in the Indus plain (on 21 Million Hectares and Peshawar valley)

averages about 26 MAF, out of which only 6 MAF is used in the irrigated areas (Khan,2008). There are two major sources of rainfall in Pakistan i.e. the Monsoons and theWestern Disturbances where there is about 70 percent of the annual Monsoon rainfallfrom July to September (Ahmed et. al., 2008). They have further stated that the entireIndus plain receives an average seasonal rainfall of 212mm and 53mm (36 MAF) in theKharif and Rabi seasons respectively during year 2006-2007. The rainfall varies as wemove from the north and northeast to the south of Pakistan. Hussain, (2007) has statedthat the contribution of rainfall is 29.98 MAF out of which 17.01 MAF is lost throughrunoff rainwater and the information is presented Table-3. This figure will be used for

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water balancing and estimation of supply and demand for water for the year 2013.

3.3. Ground Water Availability

Although, the overall ground water potential (Non-confined and confined aquifers) inPakistan is not exactly known, the estimated availability is approximately 55 MAF (GoP,2002). About 40 MAF of pumped ground water is also used for irrigation and current useof water is 92 percent for agriculture, 3 percent for industries and 5 percent for domestic

& infrastructure (GoP, 2010). The average ground water at farm gate availability for a period of 12-years (2000-01 to 2011-12) is 50.16 MAF which is pumped for use at farms(GoP, 2013). This quantity of groundwater (50.16 MAF) is used for water budgeting (Table-3).

Table-3: Average groundwater availability at Farm Gate, 2013S.No. Years Groundwater (MAF)1. 1999-2000 49.512. 2000-01 50.553. 2001-02 50.304. 2002-03 50.025. 2003-04 50.026. 2004-05 50.027. 2005-06 50.328. 2006-07 50.329. 2007-08 50.3210. 2008-09 50.2111. 2009-10 50.2112. 2010-11 49.58Average 1999-2000 to 2011-12 50.16Source: GoP (2013). Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan (2011-12), Government of

Pakistan, M/o National Food Security and Research, Economic Wing, (2013)

Groundwater in the Indus Basin is now extensively used through private and publictubewells and pumped around 50.16 MFA during year 2011-12 (GOP, 2013). This made102.55 MAF water available at the field level. Conveyance losses of groundwater onfarmer's field channels are assumed to be about 10 percent primarily due to shorterchannel lengths (Ahmed, 2001 and Hussain, 2007). Therefore, about 16.13 MAF is lost inthe field channels for both surface and groundwater (Table-4).Table 4: Water budget for groundwater and rainfall for the year 2012-13 S.No. Item MAF1. Extraction of Groundwater1.1 Public, private and SCARP tubewells (2.57+39.98+8.5 MAF) 50.60 1.4 Groundwater filed channel losses (10%) 5.021.5 Total ground irrigation water at field level 45.141.6 Field application losses 11.291.7 Crop consumptive use 33.852. Contribution of Rainfall2.1 Contribution of Rainfall 29.982.1 Rainfall water runoff 17.012.2 Rainfall water available at field level 12.972.3 Field application losses 4.052.4 Crop consumptive uses of rainfall water (2.2-2.3) 8.92

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Source: GoP, (2002), GoP (2004) and Hussain (2007) & authors calculations

Thus, 90 MAF is available for meeting field gross irrigation requirement. Thecontribution of effective rainfall in the Indus Basin is estimated as 29.98 MAF with therain runoff water of 17.01 MAF leaving 12.97 MAF available for irrigation requirement.Therefore, total surface, groundwater and rainfall water available for consumptive uses is87.13 MAF, which fulfills the water requirement of 16.8 million hectares (mha) in theIndus Basin (Hussain, 2007).

3.4 Total Water Availability/Supply

Surface water figures are estimated after the deducting conveyance losses and addition oflosses saved due to completion of development projects (watercourse improvement,lining of distributaries & minors, rehabilitation/modernization existing irrigation systemand construction of small dams to save hill torrents water (Gop, 2013). The estimatedgross surface water supply (water diverted to canals) is 191 MAF during the year 2012-13. The surface water available at farm gate is 55.08 MAF and ground water is 50.16MAF (GOP, 2013). The contribution of rainfall is 29.98 and 1.6 MAF respectively whichadds to 140 MAF during the year 2013. The water available at field level is 104MAF(Table-5).

Table- 5: Total w ater availability from all sources, 2013 (MAF) S.No. Sources Surface water

availableWateravailable atfarm gate

Wateravailable atfield level

1 IBIS water diverted to canals 105.30 55.08 44.552. Out of IBIS water diverted to

canal (Makran & Kharan basin)3.8 2.85 1

3. Water from Rainfall 29.98 29.98 12.974. Groundwater 50.16 50.16 455. Recyclable water from sewage

flow from cities1.6 1.44 1.36

6. Total water availability 190.54 139.51 104.33Source: GOP (2002), Hussain, (2007), Ahmed et. al. (2008), GoP (2013).

3. Water Balance

The estimation of water balance is based on GoP( 2002), GoP, (2004), Hussain, (2007),GoP, (2013) and Daanish et. al, (2013). The estimation of surface water balance is

presented in Table-5&6. The total water flowed from the river Indus and its tributariesare 143.18 MAF annually (GOP, 2003). There are system losses which accounts to 9.72MAF and water flows to sea accounts to 26.73 MAF which leaves 105.30 MAF which isdiverted to canal network for irrigation (Table-6). The losses through the surface supplieswere huge. Water losses were of two types, conveyance losses (60.75 MAF and loss tothe sea 26.73 MAF after accounting for seawater intrusion. The conveyance lossesincluded canal to watercourse head (26.73 MAF), losses for watercourse head to outlet(23.49 MAF) and losses for filed channel (10.53 MAF). The crop consumptive use is32.40 MAF, outflow to sea water intrusion is 9.90 MAF and the losses were 92.37 MAF(Table-6).

The total water available from surface, groundwater and rain is 226 MAF. Totalagriculture consumptive uses are 87.13 MAF and total water losses are 135.13 MAF(Table-8). Total consumptive uses are fulfilling the water requirement of 16.8 million

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hectares area of Indus basins irrigation system in the country. The contribution ofgroundwater is 50.16 MAF during 2011-12 (GoP, 2013). The water is also lost in thewater courses which are assumed to be 10 percent due to short length of water courses(Ahmed, 2001 & Hussain, 2007). Therefore, 11.29 MAF water is lost in the watercourses and 28.89 MAF groundwater is available for crop consumptive use (Table-9).The contribution of effective rainfall in the Indus basin is estimated as 29.97 MAF(Hussain, 2007). There is runoff rain water which accounts to 17.01 MAF and cropconsumptive use is 12.96 MAF (Table-7).

Table-6 : Water Balance for IBIS, Water Inflows, Uses and Losses ( +) during the year 2013 1. Water Inflows (+) MAF1.1 Western rivers contribution 143.181.2 Eastern rivers contribution 8.401.3 Makran basin and Kharan basin 3.81.4 All basins 155.381.5 Reduction from the eastern river and the allowable uses

by India on the western rivers10

1.6 Storage changes (+) 0/0

1.7 Total water inflow (1.4-1.5) 145.382. Water Losses and Uses (+)2.1 Canal supplies at water course head (2.2+2.5+2.6) 78.572.2 Irrigation water at field level (2.3+2.7) 44.552.3 Irrigation water for crop consumptive use 32.402.4 Canal conveyance losses 26.732.5 Water courses conveyance losses 23.492.6 Filed channel conveyance losses 10.532.7 Field application losses 12.152.8 Canal withdrawal consumptive use + losses 105.30

3. Industrial and municipal uses 7.034. Required sea outflow to check sea intrusion 9.905. Total water uses (2.3+3+4) 49.336. Conveyance losses, evaporation and other losses 67.26

7. Excess outflow toward sea 28.818. Total water losses 92.37Balance Surface Water available = water uses + water losses 145.4=49.33+96.07 Source: GoP, (2002), GoP, (2004), Hussain (2007), Ahmed et. al. (2008) & GOP (2013)

Table-7: Ground and Rains Water Balance, 2012-13 Ground Water Balance MAF Rain Water MAF

Groundwater extraction 50.16 Contribution of rain 29.97Water course losses 5.02 Runoff 17.01Water at field outlet 45.14 Water at field outlet 12.96Field application losses 11.29 Field application losses 4.05Crop consumptive use 33.85 Crop consumptive use 8.92groundwater losses 16.31 Rain water losses 21.06Water balance Extraction=Uses+losses

50.16= 33.85+1631 Water balance Rainfall=Uses+losses

29.97=12.96+21.06

Table-8: Overall Water Balance of Surface, Groundwater and Rainfall 2013

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Water sources Total Inflows/extractions (MAF)

Total Water Uses(MAF)

Total Water Losses(MAF)

Surface water 145.38 49.33 96.07Ground water 50.16 33.85 16.31Rain 29.98 8.91 21.05Total 225.52 92.09 133.43Balance Inflows=water uses+water losses

225.52 =92.09+133.43

4. Water Requirements /Demand for Water

The demand for water/water requirements/water needs included both agricultural waterrequirements/needs and non-agricultural water requirements are needs such as domesticuse, industrial use and environmental protection use.

4.1 Water Requirements/Water Demand for Agriculture Sector

About half of Pakistans population depends on irrigated agriculture for their livelihoods,and one-third lacks access to safe drinking water as irrigated agriculture is the backbone

of the country where the agricultural production is directly related to the availability andeffective use of water as a critical input for this sector. The economy of Pakistan ismainly depends on irrigated agriculture, which accounts directly for a quarter of thecountrys GDP and directly or indirectly provides 60 percent of the population with theirlivelihoods (GOP, 2013). Ninety-seven percent of annual available surface water goestoward irrigation to support agriculture (Daanish et. al., 2013). They have further statedthat b ecause Pakistans transition to an urban and industrial economy is likely tocontinue, its competition with agriculture for water resources is likely to increase.

Water demand for agriculture sector is estimated using the data of IBIS where Indus river basin area is 16.8 million ha or 168 billion M 2, Crop Evapotranspiration (Et) is 625mm or

168 BM2

and irrigation efficiency is 40 percent.

The net crop water requirement can becalculated as Et times Indus river basin area i.e. (0.625Mx168 BM 2=105 BCM) or 85.19MAF and divided by irrigation efficiency. The net water demand for agriculture sector is85.19 MAF. The gross water demand for agriculture is calculated by net demand foragriculture divided by irrigation efficiency (net crop requirement/irrigation efficiency i.e.85.19/0.40= 212.97 MAF. The gross water demand for agriculture is 212.97 MAF for theyear 2013.

4.2 Non-agricultural Water Requirements

Industrial and domestic water demand is a tiny proportion of the overall water demandsituation in Pakistan, as evident in Table-9 and Figure 2, but given the numbers of peoplewho depend on the domestic water sector and the spatially concentrated effects ofindustrial and domestic water demand, the political consequences of the present situationand future trends are likely to be out of proportion to the proportional volume of waterinvolved for each sector in Pakistan (Daanish et. al., 2013). Load shedding greatly affectswater pumping, and power shortages are directly related to water shortages in manycities. Without an integrated approach for water demand management, water shortageswill continue to plague all sectors and have significant negative economic repercussions(Suttinon et. al., 2009).

Table-9: Non-agricultural Water Needs (MAF)

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Water uses 2000** 2013* 2025** Addl.Requirements

Water supplyand sanitation

4.5 7.4 10.5 3.10

Industrial Use 2.2 1.47 3.5 2.03Environmental

protection1.3 1.4 1.7 0.3

Total 8.0 10.27 15.7 5.4* GOP, (2002) and ** Daanish et. al., (2013)

Figure-2: Current Water Withdrawal by Sector

Source: Daanishet. al., (2013)

4.3 Total Agricultural and non-agricultural water Requirements/Demand for Water

Total demand for water included both agricultural and non-agricultural water needswhere non-agricultural water needs included water requirement for domestic, industrialand environmental protection use. The estimated demand for water is 223.27 MAF duringthe year 2013 (Table-10). The demand for water is projected to rise to 274 MAF by 2025(Daanish et. al., 2013).

Table-10: Total A gricultural and Non Agricultural Water Needs (MAF) Water uses 2000 2004 2013 2025Agricultural waterneeds

134 143.29 213 258.30

Non-agricultural waterneeds

8.0 9.3 10.27 15.7

Total water demand 142 152.59 223.27 2741 GOP, (2002), 2 GOP (2005) and 3 authors calculation 4 Daanish et. al., (2013)

5. Water Demand and Supply Gap

The current estimated demand for water is 223.27 MAF where total availability is 191MAF and water demand and supply gap is 32 MAF during the year 2013 (Table-11). Thedemand for water is projected to rise to 274 MAF by 2025 where total water availability

by 2025 is not likely to change from the current 191 MAF (Daanish et. al., 2013) and the

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

1973 1988 1998 2008

Current Water Withdrawl by Sector

Agriculture Industrial Municipal Total Renewable Water (Km3/Y)

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gap is 59 percent of the entire Indus River Systems current annual average flow inPakistan. The data presented in Table-11 points to a widening gap between water supplyand demand overtime in Pakistan where the demand for water is increasing rapidly whilethe opportunities for further development of water resources or maintaining their use toexisting levels are diminishing (GoP, 2010). In future, while the water demand by all thesectors will increase due to socio-economic development and population increase, that bythe agriculture sector will increase much faster due to higher demand for irrigation waterto compensate for higher evapo-transpiration rates at elevated temperatures resulting

from climate change (GoP, 2010).

Table-11: Water Demand and Supply Gap (MAF) Items 2000 2004 2013 2025Demand for water 142 152.59 223.27 274Supply of water 134 136 191 191Gap 8 17 32 83

1 GOP, (2002), 2 GOP (2005) and 3 authors calculation 4 Daanish et. al., (2013)

Water security problems in the country are often presented as an excess of demand oversupply, but a deeper understanding of water scarcity must historically contextualizesystems of supply and demand or water supply and demand are not exogenous variables(Daanish et. al., 2013). They have further stated that rather, the magnitude and nature ofsupply and demand in any given region have developed as a part of a regions history andgeography where water supply and demand are important in considering water security,not just because of the necessity of respecting absolute ecological thresholds but also

because effective policy changes must recognize their deeply social nature as well as thehistorical and political economic context through which water demand and supply areestablished gives us the means to reframe the water scarcity debate.

6. Threats to Water Availability and Quality

The groundwater depletion, deterioration of water quality and climate change alongwithenvironmental hazards are major threats to water availability and quality in the country.These threats are briefly described in the following sub-sections:

6.1 Groundwater Depletion

In the 60s, Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARP), motivated farmingcommunities to install private tubewells for better control over and flexibility of wateruse for growing crops. One million of private tubewells and water and sanitationauthoritys (WASA) tubewells are operational to pump groundwater for agriculture anddomestic use respectively. For crops (40-50 percent) and industrial as well as domestic

water requirements are met mainly from groundwater in the fresh groundwater areas(Shah, 2006). The excessive use of ground water is depleting /mining the aquifer, therebyfalling water table in fresh groundwater areas in the country in general and Balochistan in

particular and resultantly increased tubewell installation and operational cost due todecline in water table. The quality of groundwater is deteriorating due to salt waterintrusions in fresh groundwater area and rampant discharge of untreated and toxiceffluents from domestic and industry near and around cities and town. About 90 percentof untreated and highly toxic domestic and industrial water is dumping into opened drainsand filtrating into aquifer and resultantly Pakistan highest in the World in mortality rate

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of which 60 percents death occurs due to water borne diseases. The indiscriminate pumping and heavy use of fertilizer and pesticides are contaminating the aquifer, where both the government and donors have failed to reengineer their capacity and funding todeal with groundwater depletion (WWF, 2007).

6.2 Climate Change and Environmental Hazards

Climate change can have major impacts on water resources, affecting both ground andsurface water supply for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation, hydropower generation,navigation, in-stream ecosystems and water-based recreation where changes in the totalamount of precipitation and in its frequency and intensity directly affect the magnitudeand timing of runoff and the intensity of floods and drought (Nadeem, 2010). The floodsduring 2010, 2012 and 2013 are caused due to climate change which increases monsoonrainfall in the northwest of the country. The flood of 2010 had damaged 1.8 millionhomes and affected 21 million people in Pakistan. Christensen et. al., (2007) forecasted

an increase overall monsoonal rainfall, an increase mining of water banks due to de-glaciation and increase area affected by flooding in Pakistan.

7. Challenges to Affective Water Management

The United Nation (UN) currently estimated an annual per capita water availability of1090 cubic meters for the year 2012-13. The Food Agricultural Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO) defines water stress as availability between 500 and 1000 cubicmeter per capita per year and water scarci ty as less than 500 cubic meters per year percapita (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data ). According to these definitions,Pakistan falls in the category of water stressed nation because stresses are considered

high if the total renewable water resources (TRWR) value is above 25 percent wherePakistans water pressure amounts to a staggering 74 percent as compared with India at34 percent and Afghanistan at 31 percent and Pakistan is expected to become waterscarce less than 500 cubic meters per capita per year by 2035 and Pakistan will becomewater scarce country by 2035 (Daanish et. al., 2013) . The major factors responsible formoving Pakistan from water stress to water scarce nation will be rapid population growth,inefficient water supply management, distributional inequalities and affects of climatechange in Pakistan.

Population growth has been high, averaging an annual rate of just over 2.5 percent. Theaverage annual population growth rate from 1961 to 2011 in Pakistan was 2.61 percent

where this growth rate was only 1.81 percent from 2001 to 2011 which suggests that population is growing at a declining rate (Daanish et. al., 2013). They have further statedthat most writing on the countrys water scarcity and water policy in general begins withthe sobering fact that the per capita availability of water in Pakistan has decreased from5,260 cubic meters in 1951 to roughly 1,040 in 2010 a decline of more than 400 percent(Table-12).Table- 12: Per Capita Water Availability 2013 (MAF)S.No. Years Population(Million) Water availability per capita per

year (cubic meters)

http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/datahttp://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/datahttp://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/datahttp://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data

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1. 1951 34 52602. 1972 63 39333. 1982 86 28644. 1992 168 10385. 2013 184 10006. 2025 221 800Source: Ahmed et. al. (2008), GoP (2013) & Daanish et. al., (2013)

Figures 3 show the relationships between water availability and population. Pakistan iscurrently the sixth most populous country in the world, and its population is expected toincrease from 180 million in 2012 to 230 million in 2025 (World Population Datasheet,2012). I n terms of volume, Pakistan i s well endowed with water r esour ces where interms of per capita avail abil ity, th e water supply pi cture may seem worrying and morethan the absolute volume, however , is the temporal, spatial, and social distribution ofwater , which ought to be of gr eater concern in the coun try (Daani sh et al., 2013).

The assumption that population growth will outstrip the capacity to produce enough foodfor everyone is not the source of a pending national crisis and the issue lies in the politicsof distribution, allocation, and access not in aggregate supply and demand (Harvey,1974). The slowdown in agricultural production in the first decade of the 2000s, however,is worrying (GOP, 2009). Nevertheless, the main question is not how to increase the

supply (or decrease the demand) of water but how to share water more equally.

The status of Pakistan as a water stress country has been explained in term of supply anddemand but water crises haunting the country is rooted in unsustainable practices(structural constraints to water sector) and gross mismanagement (managerial challengesto water sector. Urgent efforts are required to address the governance weaknesses andinstitutional in-efficiencies for sustainable water availability and requirements in thecountry.

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7.1 G overnance Weaknesses

Poor governance may be one of the biggest factors preventing effective watermanagement where its regulatory and institut ional deficiencies are increasing tensionamong water stakeholders, who are failing to communicate and cooperate with each otherto overcome weak policies and enforcement mechanisms of the water sector in thecountry (Daanish et. al., 2013).

7.1.1 Regulatory Deficiencies

The Canal and Drainage Act 1873 mandates a fix time rotational irrigational schedule(barawandi), which temporally provides equal water rights at the head and the tail.Increasing water losses along the water course is not accounted for in the barawandi andresultantly tail end farmers get water less than their shares and large farmers get

proportionally higher water allocation which contradicts equity principle. According tothe Act, all water resources are the property of the government and water rights is linkedwith land ownership rather than water uses as a proxy of water use i.e. supply ratherdemand driven water allocation rights. These untitled water rights creates water disputeamong the provinces and farmers in the country. Water distributional issues causedlitigations due to no existence of fixed entitlements of water for provinces and farmers.The current stagnating water rates (abiana) lead to increase losses that failed to provideadequate funding for operational, maintenance and management of irrigation system inPakistan. There is also lack of well established groundwater ownership and rights. Theuntreated and toxic effluents from domestic and industries near and around cities andtowns creates polluted groundwater supplies.

7.1.2 Institutional Deficiencies

Institutional deficiencies deal with quite complex and disconnected, structure ofinstitutions governing water at the Federal, provincial and local level with disorderaccountability and data sources (Fig. 4). Currently, subject water management falls underthe M/o NFS&R and each province has its own authorities that govern irrigation, waterdevelopment, and supply and sanitation. Indus River System Authority (IRSA) collectsdata on water use and circulates it after every ten days to the water courses in the fields of

provincial irrigation departments and back to the irrigation departments and IRSA and procedure of data collection and sharing are a source of mistrust and controversy betweenthe provinces due to mis-reporting of data from manual gauge readers at IBIS. The areadevelopment authorities or Water Supply and Sanitation Authorities (WASA) areresponsible to supply water and sanitation in the provinces. These authorities aredisconnect between their remit and power and their lack of accountability, however, areconstant (Dannish at el, 2013). Service delivery of the area development authorities /WASA is both unreliable and corrupt and l ocal governments ability to raise funds andsustain the Water Supply and Sanitation Authorities is also questioned. Institutionalreform would help reverse the weak governance that is fueling socioeconomic discontentand eroding citizens confidence in their government and rule of law (Dannish at el,2013).

7.2 Supply Driven Policy Approach

The policies and strategies to address various water challenges in Pakistan include (i) nationalclimate change policy, (2011) (ii) drinking water and sanitation policy (2009) (iii) environmental

policy (2005) (iv) draft National water policy (2004) (v) Pakistan water sector strategy (2002) and(vi) water sector plan (1990). The review of these policies and strategies revealed that the claims

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of these policies and strategies were water resource management with focus on its mega projectsupply side interventions in the water sector of Pakistan. This implies that the overall philosophyof all these policies and strategies to favour engineering mega projects and the concentration onlarge scale infrastructure (dams) to balance water availability in the country. These policiesignored the socio economic realities in addition to minimizing the consequence of flooding,

population displacement and lost of livelihoods (Daanish et al, 2013). The supply rather thandemand driven policies and strategies veil not only inequitable distribution especially to tail endfarmers but also inefficient water use (Nadeem, 2010).

Source: Daanish et. al., (2013)

The storage capacity of IBIS is only 121 MAF per year, or a thirty-day supply which isextremely low as compared with India can store for 120 to 220 days, Egypt up to 700days, and the United States for 900 days. The storage capacity of IBIS at 9 percent (livestorage) of its average annual flow is low when compared with 40 percent world average,33 percent in India, 347 percent of Nile river basin and 497 percent of Colorado river

basin (Kahlown and Majeed, 2002 & GoP, 2010). 1/3rd

of total amount of delivered wateris lost within water courses and between canal heads and water courses and 25 percentwater lost within farms which implies poor management and distribution of irrigatedwater translated to only 45 percent of cultivable land being farmed at any given time inthe country or Pakistan uses 97 percent of is allocated water resources to support one ofthe lowest productivity in the world per unit of water (Daanish et al, 2013). They havefurther stated that by treating water as a raw material, technical solutions are deployed toharness the waters fullest capacity, which ignore the short -falls and constraints in watersupply and funds for operation, maintenance, and investments and simply repairing and

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maintaining Pakistans existing canal systems could free an estimated 76 MAF of water.

Moreover, a comprehensive National Water Policy was drafted in 2005 but has yet to beadopted as d ebate has been intense over the policys approac h in addressing waterscarcity, demand, and population pressures and whether the policy should focus more onstorage projects or conservation and efficiency strategies as well as the policy documentis marred by provincial disputes over water rights and priorities, demonstrating yetanother obstacle to effective water management (Daanish et al, 2013).

7.3 Inter-sectoral water competition

The literature on the forecasting water availability and requirement focuses onagricultural sector but water are also required to feed increasing population and industriesspread across the country. This increase in population and industries means more watersfor these two sectors which imply changes in water uses for urbanization,industrialization, agriculture diversification and environmental needs. This change ofwater uses will enhance inter-sector competition. The domestic and industrial demand isa very small proportion of overall water demand in the country as evident in the Figure-5

but given the number of peoples who depend on the domestic water sector and spatially

concentrated effects of industrial and domestic water demand, the political consequencesof present situation and future trend are likely to be out of proportion volume of waterinvolved for each sector in Pakistan i.e. demand for domestic and industrial sector islikely to increase in the future.

Daanish et. al., (2013) summarized few other points for inter-sectoral water competitionwhich are as under: (i) water quality is becoming just as much of an issue as waterquantity and the urban and industrial sectors face several development challenges (ii)these sectors need to raise the level of service quality and reliability in water supply inlarge metropolitan areas and industrial states (iii) access to a piped water supply in smalltowns and rural areas should be extended (iv) sources of sanitary and industrial effluents

need to be blocked before entering fresh water ways (v) development should not come atthe cost of contaminating already limited water sources (vi) as Pakistan develops,

balancing shifts in supply and demand will become a major challenge, as a growingmiddle class demands more water-intensive convenience technologies and highercommodities, such as meat, dairy, and more diversified produce and (vii) supply-sidewater policies and the concentration on large-scale infrastructure projects to balancewater availability notably dams often ignore these socioeconomic realities in addition tominimizing the consequences of flooding, population displacement, and lost livelihoodswhere this displacement often hits poorer communities, who may have no other safetynets and may be more vulnerable to violence.

7.4 Skills and Technologies

Daanish et. al., (2013) has proposed the introduction of four technologies to address the burning issues of water which is summarized as under:

7.4.1 Minimizing Mis-reporting Data

M anual gauge readers are used at IBIS for inter-provincial water distribution whereSindh province frequently accuses Punjab province for mis-reporting the data from this

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manual gauge and thus inter-provincial water dispute occurs. The introduction oftechnology of telemetry system is proposed for the distribution of water to provinces andflood warning.

7.4.2 Focusing groundwater storage

Considerable attention has been given to dam construction for surface storage in thewater which is one of the most inefficient types of storage solutions in a hot and drycountry due to huge evaporation losses. Little attention has been paid to groundwater

storage through injection wells or otherwise, which could be much more efficient. Energygeneration benets are undeniable, but greater attention to groundwater storage inaddition to surface storage could help water managers expand their range of options inthe face of greater demand on water and un-certainity in the face of climate change.

7.4.3 Minimizing field application water losses

The introduction of laser land leveling is an effective way of improving waters productive efficiency in order to minimize the water application losses of about 25 percent. The benefits of the technology, as might be expected, have largely been directedtoward larger farmers. The technology has also been criticized for compromising the soil

ecology by killing many beneficial soil organisms, which contribute to soil productivity.

7.4.4 Focusing on Water Conservation Techniques

Sprinkler and drip irrigation has also been proposed as a substitute for flood irrigation toconserve water. The capital expenditure combined with the operation and maintenancecosts mean that only relatively prosperous farmers who can afford the expenses of thetechnology can benefit from them. The social implications of the technologies aside,farmers often prefer the silt-laden surface water for its soil rejuvenating qualities. A casecan also be made for flood irrigation in the sense that it does recharge the aquifer, whichis particularly useful near urban areas, being that most of urban water supply in Pakistan

is from groundwater.

7.4.5 Addressing Silent Public Health Crisis

There is poor urban (40 percent people have no access) and rural ( 90 percent of rural population have no access) water supply in Pakistan as the water supply and sanitationsystems remain on the old networked water systems which can not avoid sewagecontamination. Appropriate technologies promoting modular systems in urban and ruralwater supply and behavioral change in water usage are proposed to address silent, publichealth crises.

8. Filling the Gaps

In term of remedial, the most countries are managing water shortage problem ratherthan solving it. Water resources management and development in the country facesimmense challenges for resolving many diverse problems. The most critical of these is avery high temporal and spatial variation of water availability. Nearly 81 percent of riverflows and 65 percent of precipitation occurs during the three monsoon months, whilequality of groundwater largely varies with depth and location. Ever expanding waterneeds for the growing economy and the population for meeting its food and fiberrequirements, and the advent of frequent floods and droughts, add to the complexity of

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water management.

The water scarcity and groundwater quality threaten the livelihoods of Pakistani nation.Untitled water rights and institutional deficiencies create water disputes among provincesand farmers. Supply rather than demand driven system creates inequitable distributionand inefficient water use. Therefore, it becomes important to address the nuance ofstructural obstacle of distributional inequalities and managerial obstacle of inefficientwater use in the country.

Water disputes among farmer over water use pushes them to migrate to cities to strainurban water supply that compete with agricultural water use. The shortage of agriculture

production lead to higher food prices which adversely affect urban poor who might havemigrated from rural areas, the affecties of water disputes. Thus inter-sectoral watercompetition becomes an issue of inequality and imbalance. There is need to analyze thelinkages between sectorals water pressure in the face of increasing urban population. Anintegrated approach to water supply and demand management is a solution for improvingrural urban water supply and sanitation system in Pakistan.

Lot of debates on building of dams has been going on for the last two three decades but

there was no consensus among the provinces on the building of Kalabagh dam in spite ofspending billion of rupees on preparation of its pre-feasibility and feasibility reports. Theconcentration on dams as the only solution to water and energy supply grossly ignores theneed for resource behavioral change and the role of other energy sources, includingrenewable and alternative as well as understanding the life cycle of water use for major

production processes and products can help explain the water efficiency problems andguide policy formation in Pakistan (Daanish et. al., 2013).

There is stagnant abiana (water tax) which is not economically feasible because it doesnot cover even the operational and maintenance cost of water supply in the country. The

greater experimentation with water pricing systems is needed in the form of devolution ofwater allocation mechanisms, whether through market pricing or other means, must takethe highly unequal agrarian property relations in Pakistan as its starting point (Daanish et.al., 2013). More domestic resources allocation to repair and maintain infrastructure andmore investment in innovative technologies and better understanding of declining wateravailability issue will allow for more effective programming that empowers and engageswater stakeholders from the officials to the grassroots level in the country.

9. Conclusions

This paper provides a review on challenges of declining water availability and wayforward for sustainable water availability in the country. First water availability andrequirements from all sources were reviewed and estimated water supply and waterrequirements for the year 2013. Then the water budgets for surface water, groundwaterand rainfall water were made and water balance was prepared. Then water supply anddemand gap were estimated. The challenges confronting this gap were also reviewed.Opportunities for filling the gaps were reviewed and proposed.

The IBIS is designed to allocate the scarce water resource over a large geographic area onequitable basis, although equitable distribution is self-defeating as the delivery system is

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positively linked to the landholdings. In terms of volume, Pakistan is well endowed withwater resources but in terms of per capita availability, the water supply picture isworrying. The demand for water has increased tremendously over time due to expansionof agricultural cultivation on marginal land, increase in agricultural intensification, andfast population and industrial growth in the country.

The major structural challenges include highly seasonally variable river flows, increasingwater shortages during whole Rabi crop-season and sowing-time during Kharif crop-

season, inadequate transfer capacity of link canals, and extremely long lead times fromreservoirs to the farmers fields ca uses large conveyance losses. The major managerialobstacles include poor operation, maintenance and monitoring of the system causinglarge water leakages, untitled water rights creating tension among regions and farmers,supply rather than demand driven system which not only creates inequitable distribution(especially to tail-end farmers) but also inefficient water use.

Because of overuse and misuse of water resource, the country is facing declining wateravailability, growing water pollution and overall environmental insecurity. By 2030,water experts expect Pakistan to decline from being water stressed country to a waterscarce nation which will mainly be attributed to rapid population growth, inefficient

water supply management supply driven system, distributional inequalities, the effectsof climate change and a lack of substantive public participation in the formulation ofnational water policy and strategy.

The concentration on dams as the only solution to water and energy supply grosslyignores the need for resource behavioral change and the role of other energy sources.Better understanding of the water shortage issues will allow for more effective

programming that empowers and engages water stakeholders from the officials to thegrassroots level. Doing nothing is not an option, yet country does not have the capacity toinject more water into its national grid and water stressed should not be the securitytipping points but rather a path to social harmony, environmental sustainability and

national unity.

The priorities of water sector should address economic efficiency, environmentalsustainability, and equity, in order to reorient water demand and improve watermanagement in the country. There is need to regulate and alter water use behavior whichcould curtail water shortages. Urgent efforts are also required to initiate appropriateinstitutional reforms in the water sector and a healthy dose of democracy in the waterresources decision-making structures in the country.

10. Way Forward

The broad goal of development of water resources sector is to uplift the agro-basedeconomy on the national level by maximizing crop production, through progressivelyincreasing surface water supplies and conserving them using the latest technologiesavailable and protecting land and infrastructure from water-logging, salinity, floods andsoil erosion in an integrated manner (GoP, 2005, 2007 & 2010). The goal also includescatering to the increasing demands for drinking water supplies and for industrial andcommercial activities in a cost effective manner. In this context, the challenge will be theformulation and effective implementation of a comprehensive set of recommendations forthe development and management of water resources in Pakistan which would include,

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integrated resource use, the introduction of water efficient techniques, containment ofenvironmental degradation, institutional strengthening and capacity building (Kahlownand Majeed, 2002).

Participation of public private and civil sector in the development of a national water policy, a strategy for improved service provision and strengthen enforcement mechanismfor water use, improved communication and data sharing mechanisms, promoting theadoption of innovative business models and methods of water conservation and

strengthening disaster risk management strategy at local level are the recommendationsfor curtailing declining water availability in the country. The brief description of eachrecommendation is narrated here:

10.1 Demand Driven Policy Approach

Demand driven water policy will help equitable water distribution and efficient wateruse. The participation of public, private and civil sector is proposed for a shared policyframework to address the challenges to water sector. In term of per capita, the decliningwater availability can be enhanced by focusing more on under ground water storagethrough injection wells or otherwise which would be much more efficient. Energy

generation benets are undeniable, but greater attention to groundwater storage inaddition to surface storage could help water managers expand their range of options inthe face of greater demand on water and un-certainity in the face of climate change in adry and hot country Pakistan. The moreover further emphasis is proposed for bothdemand management and conservation to ease competition over water between waterusers and sectors in Pakistan.

10.2 Strategy for improved service provision and strengthen enforcementmechanisms for water use.

The understanding of sector demands and the life cycle of water availability and use is

pre-requisite for improved service provision and enforcement mechanism for water use inthe country. Appropriate regulations should ensure reliable and affordable water deliveryservices. Stronger mechanisms of enforcement are needed to limit pollution, securerevenue collections, and ensure efficient and equitable use of surface and groundwater inthe country. Adequate technologies promoting modular system in Urban and Rural WaterSupply & Sanitation along with behavioral change in water usage are proposed to addresssilent public health crises.

10.3 Improve communication and data sharing mechanisms .

Efforts are required to ensure transparency and accountability at all levels of the water

sector in order to remove the mistrust of stakeholders and decision makers. Donors andcivil society can jointly work to ensure appropriate checks and balances of reported waterdata and of decisions made by water managers and irrigation officials. Adopting of up-to-date technology and enacting stronger legislation that requires more oversight of waterusage in order to check the transparency.

10.4 Promote water conservation techniques

Conservation strategies could include laser land leveling, sprinkler and drip irrigation,

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rainwater harvesting and bioremediation for waste water as a water recycling.

10.5 Strengthen disaster risk management strategies at the local level

This is a bottom-up approach for addressing the impacts of environmental hazards,including dispossession and migration. By doing so, Pakistan can ensure effective andtimely relief and recovery through local institutions and help increase the legitimacy offormal governance structures in the irrigation system of Pakistan.

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