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WASHINGTON AREA ECONOMY SNAPSHOT • Job growth: 33,400 new jobs during the 12 months ending August 2013. • Unemployment rate: 5.4% at August 2013. Lowest among major metro areas. • Average household income: $108,400 in 2012, 59% higher than the U.S. average. • Projected job growth 2013-2017: an average of 56,200 per annum. WASHINGTON AREA RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT • Grocery-anchored shopping center vacancy rate: trended down 20 basis points in 2013 to 4.7% at year-end. • Grocery-anchored shopping center asking rents: up 2.2% during 2013. • Grocers, discounters, gyms, restaurants, and household goods stores have been actively signing deals in the Washington metro area during 2013. • Pundits are mixed on the outcome for the holiday shopping season, thanks to the residual effect of the government shut down. • A transformational amount and quality of retail space is under construction in the District of Columbia. Economy and Outlook......................................................... 2 ‘Tis the Season .................................................................... 3 Retail Market Conditions .................................................... 4 Grocery-Anchored Shopping Center Market Conditions ........ 4 New Development ............................................................... 6 Investment Sales ................................................................. 8 The Bottom Line .................................................................. 8 How to Contact Us ............................................................ 10 Skyland Town Center, SE, Washington, DC A SUMMARY AT YEAR-END 2013 WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK YEAR-END 2013 Published by Sponsored by Retail Real Estate Experts Since 1984 INSIDE THIS ISSUE The Washington, DC Metro Retail Outlook is a quarterly publication of Delta Associates, sponsored by the Rappaport Companies

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Page 1: WASHINGTON, DC METRO Published by Sponsored by RETAIL OUTLOOKfiles.ctctcdn.com/8fe64590101/fe2b1a4c-69a5-4887-a6bc-b3db1c17… · Related Services sectors. We project the Construction

WASHINGTON AREA ECONOMY SNAPSHOT

• Job growth: 33,400 new jobs during the 12 months ending

August 2013.

• Unemployment rate: 5.4% at August 2013. Lowest among major

metro areas.

• Average household income: $108,400 in 2012, 59% higher than the

U.S. average.

• Projected job growth 2013-2017: an average of 56,200 per annum.

WASHINGTON AREA RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT

• Grocery-anchored shopping center vacancy rate: trended down 20

basis points in 2013 to 4.7% at year-end.

• Grocery-anchored shopping center asking rents: up 2.2%

during 2013.

• Grocers, discounters, gyms, restaurants, and household goods

stores have been actively signing deals in the Washington metro

area during 2013.

• Pundits are mixed on the outcome for the holiday shopping season,

thanks to the residual effect of the government shut down.

• A transformational amount and quality of retail space is under

construction in the District of Columbia.

Economy and Outlook .........................................................2

‘Tis the Season ....................................................................3

Retail Market Conditions ....................................................4

Grocery-Anchored Shopping Center Market Conditions ........4

New Development ...............................................................6

Investment Sales .................................................................8

The Bottom Line ..................................................................8

How to Contact Us ............................................................10

Skyland Town Center, SE, Washington, DC

A SUMMARY AT YEAR-END 2013

WASHINGTON, DC METRO

RETAIL OUTLOOKYEAR-END 2013

Published by Sponsored by

Retail Real Estate Experts Since 1984

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

The Washington, DC Metro Retail Outlook is a

quarterly publication of Delta Associates, sponsored

by the Rappaport Companies

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2DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

ECONOMY AND OUTLOOK

The start of the 4th quarter also marked the beginning of a shutdown of

the federal government, as Congress’s October 1 budget deadline came

and went without a spending agreement. The shutdown ended after 16

days, making it the 3rd-longest in U.S. history, and although its damage

to the Washington metro area economy is difficult to quantify before

agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics publish their delayed

statistics, Washington was almost certainly the hardest hit among major

U.S. cities. Worse, while many of the thousands of workers who were

furloughed during the shutdown will receive retroactive pay, the lost

private sector revenue among restaurants, tourism companies, hotels, and

various retailers cannot be restored. To wit, Chicago-based retail research

firm ShopperTrak reported on October 18 that the government shutdown

caused an 11.4% drop in year-over-year retail store shopper traffic for the

week of October 6-12 in the Washington metro area. At the national level,

retail store shopper traffic dropped just 7.1 percent compared to 2012.

However, while the growth-sapping effects of the government

shutdown should not be overlooked (especially in light of a possible

sequel when January’s debt ceiling deadline arrives), the larger

demand-side threat to the Washington area economy remains

sequestration. Fortunately, the overall impacts of sequestration

have been soft compared to expectations – largely due to Federal

government austerity getting a head start in 2011, the outsized

performance of the private sector, and the deferral of furloughs. As

a result, the Washington metro area continues to experience growth.

Payroll employment increased 33,400 during the 12 months ending

August 2013 – twelfth among large metro areas – and as of August

2013, the unemployment rate remains the lowest in the nation among

major metros, at 5.4%.

The retail sector gained 5,500 jobs in the Washington metro area

during the 12 months ending August 2013, an increase of 2.1%. This

compares to a national gain of 2.6%.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

NY DFW LABasin

Hou Bos Atl Chi SF Bay Phx Den S FL Was

PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Large Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending August 2013

TH

OU

SA

ND

S O

F N

EW

PA

YR

OLL

JO

BS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; November 2013.

33.4

Shops at Pershing, Arlington, VA

*Employment total at August 2013; change reflects the 12 month period ending August 2013.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; November 2013.

RETAIL PAYROLL JOBSWashington Metro Area

YEAR RETAIL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

1,700

200

(4,900)

(13,900)

3,200

5,100

2,500

5,500

270,200

270,400

265,500

251,600

254,800

259,900

262,400

265,900

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013*

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3DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

Incomes in the Washington metro area grew by 34% from 2000 to 2012,

compared to just 20.0% nationally. By 2017, the Washington metro

area’s average household income is projected to rise 14%, compared

to a rise of 13% nationally. The elevated household incomes in the

Washington area yield increased discretionary spending and support

demand for retail goods and space.

We expect the Washington metro area economy to progress slowly

during the balance of 2013 and into 2014. We expect the speed to

be slower than seen in recent expansion cycles. During this period,

we expect the Federal government to continue austerity measures.

However, we expect other tors to pick up the slack to help stimulate

the Washington metro economy through 2017 – specifically the

Professional/Business Services and Health and Education sectors.

In consultation with Dr. Stephen Fuller of George Mason University,

we estimate that an average of 56,200 payroll jobs will be added to the

Washington metro area economy each year during the five-year period

2013 to 2017. We expect 2015 to be the cyclical peak of regional employment

growth, with approximately 69,500 new payroll jobs created in that year.

We expect the Professional/Business Services sector to create over

143,800 jobs over a five-year period – from 2013 to 2017. We expect

most of these positions to be created in the Management, Scientific,

and Technical Consulting Services and Computer Systems Design and

Related Services sectors. We project the Construction sector to follow

with 55,400 positions as the housing recovery strengthens. Through

2017, spurred by rising job gains in other sectors, the retail sector

is projected to grow 12,500 jobs to support a healthy retail industry.

‘TIS THE SEASON

A consensus has emerged among forecasters that the 2013 holiday

season is unlikely to be especially fruitful for retailers. On October

16, 2013, the National Retail Federation (NRF) published its Holiday

Consumer Spending Survey and found that American consumers plan

to spend an average of $737.95 on gifts, decorations, greeting cards,

food, and flowers to prepare for the holidays. That total represents

the survey’s lowest per capita holiday spending estimate since 2010,

and would break a trend of three consecutive growth years for per

capita holiday spending. However, NRF forecasts that total holiday

retail spending will jump 3.9% over 2012 to $602.1 billion.

PROJECTED PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 2013 – 2017

Source: EMSI, Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; November 2013.

-40,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000

Federal Government

Other Services

Financial Services

Information

Leisure/Hospitality

State and Local Government

Retail Trade

Other Sectors

Education/Health

Construction/Mining

Professional/Business Services

J O B C H A N G E

Dominion Valley Market Square, Haymarket, VA

TH

OU

SA

ND

S O

F N

EW

PA

YR

OLL

JO

BS

(A

NN

UA

L A

VE

RA

GE

)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; November 2013.

PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

District Sub. MD No. Virginia

20-Year Annual Average = 42,400/Year

5-Year Projected Average = 56,200/Year

Source: ESRI, Delta Associates; November 2013.

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME

JURISDICTION 2017(PROJ.)

$124,000

$77,100

Washington Metro Area

U.S.

2012(ACTUAL)

$108,400

$68,200

2000 (ACTUAL)

$80,600

$56,600

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4DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

Conversely, ShopperTrak expects U.S. retail sales to climb just 2.4%

in November and December 2013, compared to increases of 3 percent

in 2012, 4 percent in 2011, and 3.8 percent in 2010. Financial services

firm Morgan Stanley is even less optimistic: on October 31, 2013, it

published a national retail report titled, “Expect Coal: We Predict the

Weakest Holiday Since 2008.”

Among the reasons for forecasters’ curtailed expectations for the 2013

holiday season is sagging consumer confidence, which slipped to a

ten-month low in October after climbing throughout much of 2013,

according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of

Consumers. Somewhat worrying for the Washington metro area was

the fact that the number of consumers who mentioned the federal

government as a negative contributor to their response was the highest

since the survey began in 1952. In Washington, which has the largest

percentage of federal workers of any major city, similar sentiments are

likely to be especially prevalent.

While consumer confidence has dropped precipitously since July,

it is worth noting that the same University of Michigan index was

equally low during the holiday season of 2012, when seasonal job

gains reached a non-seasonally-adjusted 12-year high of 788,200,

according to research consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

While Challenger forecasts lower retail hiring for 2013, areas with

fundamentals as strong as the Washington metro area are likely to

outperform the rest of the country.

RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS

The Washington metro area has over 136 million SF of shopping

center retail space, inclusive of all types of retail, in over 1,200

shopping centers. The metro area has 27.9 SF of shopping center

retail space per capita as of year-end 2013, compared to the national

average of 23.3. Although Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland

are above the national and Washington metro averages, the District

remains underserved at just 8.1 SF of shopping center retail space

per capita. However, the District is in store for a striking makeover

on the shopping center front. There are seven grocery-anchored

projects with a combined 969,000 SF of retail space currently under

construction in the District alone.

GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTER MARKET CONDITIONS

Given the demand for groceries at all points of the economic cycle,

grocery-anchored shopping centers maintain the greatest stability

compared to other retail property types. Therefore, the analysis that

follows is focused on grocery-anchored shopping centers. Of the

total retail inventory in the Washington metro area, 56.6 million SF is

located in 316 grocery-anchored shopping centers, which is just over

Source: University of Michigan, Delta Associates; November 2013.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT United States | October 2012 to October 2013

60

65

70

75

80

85

90 Series 1

73.2*

* At October 2013.

10-Year Average = 78.5

Source: National Retail Federation, Delta Associates; November 2013.

AVERAGE HOLIDAY SPENDING Per Adult Aged 18+, United States

$640

$660

$680

$700

$720

$740

$760

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

*NRF Survey Prediction; includes gifts, decorations, greeting cards, food, flowers

SH

OP

PIN

G C

EN

TE

R S

F/C

AP

ITA

Source: CoStar, ESRI, Census, Delta Associates; November 2013.

SHOPPING CENTER SPACE PER CAPITA Washington Metro Area | Year End 2013

31.7 29.7

8.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland District of Columbia

Washington Metro Area = 27.9 SF/Capita

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5DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

40% of the total shopping center retail inventory in the metro area.

Grocery-anchored shopping center inventory is up from 55.8 million

SF at year-end 2012.

We perform an annual year-end survey of over 300 Washington area

grocery-anchored shopping centers, and tabulate vacancy and rent

data. The adjacent charts summarize trends from 1999-2013.

The metro-wide vacancy rate for grocery-anchored shopping

centers edged down to 4.7% at year-end 2013, from 4.9% at year-

end 2012. The vacancy rate in Suburban Maryland rose slightly to

4.6% at year-end 2013, from 4.5% one year ago. Northern Virginia

vacancy was 4.9% at year-end 2013, down from 5.3% one year ago.

Despite Suburban Maryland’s slight uptick in vacancy rates, both

Suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia have shown considerable

improvement in vacancy since the peak of the 2008 recession.

Vacancy rates for Core (DC, Arlington, Alexandria) shopping centers

dropped 80 basis points over the past year, as demand increased for

closer-in and newer centers due to tenants trading up in quality.

Vacancy rates within the Inner Ring (Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince

George’s) showed no change since year-end 2012. Both the Core and

Inner Ring submarkets hold vacancy rate averages that are under the

Washington metro area vacancy rate of 4.7% at year-end 2013. This

compares to the Outer Ring (Loudoun, Prince William) experiencing a

40 basis point decline in vacancy to 6.9%.

Rental rates at grocery-anchored centers increased 2.2% in 2013,

after rising 1.4% in 2012. Metro-wide average in-line tenant rents

were $32.76/SF at year-end 2013, compared to $32.04/SF at year-

end 2012. Suburban Maryland rents rose 4.7% rise from year-end

2012 whereas Northern Virginia rents rose 1.0%. The strong rise in

Suburban Maryland rent is primarily due to healthy rent gains in

Montgomery County.

Despite the largest drop in vacancy of the three subsets of the

Washington metro area, Core submarkets experienced just a 2.6%

GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTER SCALE Washington Metro Area | 2013

Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; November 2013. Note: Estimate; In millions of SF.

31.8

23.3 1.5

Northern VA

Suburban MD

The District

TOTAL = 56.6 MSF IN 316 CENTERS

Source: Delta Associates; November 2013.

GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTER VACANCY RATES Washington Metro Area

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia

OV

ER

ALL

VA

CA

NC

Y R

AT

E

Core = DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner Ring = Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s. Outer Ring = Loudoun, Prince William. Source: Delta Associates; November 2013.

VACANCY RATES GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTERS

Washington Metro Area

SUBMARKET 2013 2012

4.3%

4.1%

7.3%

4.9%

3.5%

4.1%

6.9%

4.7%

Core

Inner Ring

Outer Ring

Washington Metro

Source: Delta Associates; November 2013.

GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTER ASKING RENTS Washington Metro Area

$18

$20

$22

$24

$26

$28

$30

$32

$34

$36

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia

AS

KIN

G R

EN

T (

NN

N)

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6DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

rise in asking rents during 2013. This area has limited availability,

with just 154,000 SF of available space on the market, though that

amount is likely to rise significantly as projects currently in the

pipeline move nearer to delivery. The Inner Ring experienced brisk

rent growth of 4.5% during 2013, while rents grew at a more subdued

2.1% in the Outer Ring. The Inner Ring has the most available space, at

1.6 million SF, while the outer ring has 932,000 SF of space available.

NEW DEVELOPMENT

There are 16 notable grocery-anchored shopping centers, totaling

3.0 million SF, under construction or renovation in the metro area

at November 2013, and many more are in planning stages. This

compares to 10 projects totaling 2.5 million SF at year-end 2012. A

handful of notable projects are under development:

• CityCenterDC: Hines Interests LP began leasing upscale

apartments in September for its mixed-use project at the District’s

former convention center site three blocks from the Chinatown

metro stop. The enormous site bordered by New York Ave, 9th

Street NW, H Street NW, and 11th Street NW, will be completed in

three phases featuring two 11-story office buildings, two 11-story

apartment buildings, and two 11-story condo buildings to go along

with 295,000 SF of retail space, including a grocery store.

• 77H: The District’s first Walmart, located at 1st and H Street NE,

is slated to open before the end of 2013, and it looks nothing like

its big-box suburban counterparts. The project, which came to

fruition through a partnership between JBG Rosenfeld and the

world’s largest retailer, features an urban-style Walmart complete

with brick exterior and more groceries than a typical Walmart,

despite a footprint of just 85,000 SF. Above the Walmart is a 303-

unit apartment building with a rooftop pool. At ground level, 20,000

SF of street-facing retail caters to residents and shoppers alike.

Panda Express, Springfield Plaza, Springfield, VA

Core = DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner Ring = Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s. Outer Ring = Loudoun, Prince William. Source: Delta Associates; November 2013.

ASKING RENTS GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTERS

Washington Metro Area

SUBMARKET 2013 2012

2.6%

4.5%

2.1%

2.2%

$43.40

$33.97

$27.55

$32.76

Core

Inner Ring

Outer Ring

Washington Metro

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7DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

• Eden Center: Construction crews broke ground in August on a

Good Fortune supermarket in Falls Church’s Eden Center, soon

to be the largest international grocery store in Northern Virginia.

Eden Center already includes 120 restaurants, cafes, and shops

catering to the area’s Vietnamese community. The Good Fortune

in Falls Church is the franchise’s first location outside New York

or New Jersey.

• Fort Totten Square: Set to be delivered in late 2014, Fort Totten

Square is another mixed-use apartment/Walmart development

that includes 350 apartments and a condensed, urbanized

Walmart with full grocery. The Walmart at this location spans

nearly 120,000 SF, and developer JBG is building another 10,000 SF

of retail on site. The project is located a short walk from the Fort

Totten metro station.

There are additional grocery-anchored shopping centers in the

planning stages that are not included in the adjacent table, some

of which may deliver by 2014/2015. Given the long-term demand

for retail goods in the metro area, we believe developers will look to

deliver new product by late 2014, as the economy strengthens further.

1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Washington, DC

Source: WBJ, CoStar, Washington Post, Delta Associates; November 2013.

NOTABLE GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTERS UNDER CONSTRUCTION OR UNDER RENOVATION

Washington Metro Area | November 2013

SHOPPING CENTER RBA ANCHOR

Walmart

Harris Teeter

TBD

Harris Teeter

Wegmans

Giant

Walmart

Giant

Harris Teeter

Harris Teeter

Walmart

Walmart

Giant

Harris Teeter

Fresh Market

Safeway

600,000

400,000

325,000

260,000

250,000

140,000

130,000

128,000

125,000

109,000

105,000

105,000

88,000

88,000

62,000

58,000

2,973,000

Dulles Landing

Towne Centre Laurel

CityCenterDC

Downtown Crown

Hilltop Village Center

University Mall

Fort Totten Square

Cathedral Commons

Dunn Loring Metro

Clarksburg Village Center

77H

5929 Georgia Avenue

CityMarket at O Street

The Yards

One Loudoun – Phase 1

The Exchange at Wheaton Station

Total:

JURISDICTION

Loudoun

Prince George’s

District

Montgomery

Fairfax

Fairfax

District

District

Fairfax

Montgomery

District

District

District

District

Loudoun

Montgomery

Waldorf Marketplace, Waldorf, MD

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8DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

INVESTMENT SALES

There were 10 notable investment sales of grocery-anchored shopping

centers in the Washington metro area suburbs from January through

November 2013. Sales volume totaled $404.5 million ($170/SF) from

January through November 2013, compared to $475 million ($290/SF)

during all of 2012. Most recently, Wharton Realty Group purchased

Rivertowne Commons in Prince George’s County for $58.5 million

($153/SF) in October 2013.

THE BOTTOM LINE

We expect the Washington metro area retail market to continue to

grow in 2014 and beyond. Retail jobs grew by 5,500 positions over the

12 months ending in August 2013 and retailers likely will continue to

expand in the Washington metro area through 2017. Aided by rising

job gains in other sectors, particularly the Professional/Business

Services sector’s projected 143,800 net new payroll jobs, the retail

sector is projected to grow by 12,500 jobs to support a healthy retail

industry. The Professional/Business Services sector generates high-

wage jobs – the kind that generate enough disposable income to

support the retail industry. Further, rising home values in the region

will leave residents feeling richer, and thus more likely to spend.

Eight months have passed since the fiscal cutbacks of sequestration

began, and it now appears safe to say that lower Federal spending

has had less of an impact on the local economy than most analysts

predicted. However, it is possible that still more side effects will

emerge, given the long-term nature of the cuts. While the recent

government shutdown and the prospect of a similarly handcuffed

government in early 2014 has clearly rattled some consumers, the

long-term impact of Congressional infighting is likely to be negligible.

Overall, retail spending will likely increase during the remainder

of 2013 and into 2014 as the job market improves and the recovery

continues. Vacancy rates for retail space are at or near their lowest

levels since 2008, and will continue to approach their pre-recession

norms. For grocery-anchored shopping centers within the Washington

metro area, rents have risen and vacancy rates have dropped for four

consecutive years. As demand improves, we expect asking rents to

rise an additional 2.0% to 3.0% in the coming year. Creating outdoor,

mixed-use centers with a blend of restaurants and shops that are

anchored by residential communities has continued to appeal to

customers and developers and will likely remain a strong strategy.

GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTER SALES Washington Metro Area Suburbs

Source: Real Capital Analytics, graphic by Delta Associates; November 2013.

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013**

Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland

SA

LES

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

Total: $342 M $796 M $401 M $429 M $85 M $79 M $178 M $454 M $476 M

*Includes large portfolio sale by CalPERS. Note: Excludes properties under contract.

$405 M

**January through November 2013.

2 M Street, NE, Washington, DC

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9DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

Currently, tenants seeking space are interested in newer, Class A

space with significant foot traffic. While the region’s low vacancy

rate allows for new projects at this time, developers and retailers

appear mindful of the competition presented by big box retailers

and online shopping, even in the long bricks-and-mortar-dominated

world of groceries. Consumers who venture to new centers are

seeking an experience they cannot find elsewhere.

Given its high incomes and well-educated workforce, we expect the

Washington area retail market to perform as well or better than

any other retail market in the nation. There are some short-term

challenges due to Federal austerity, but the region’s fundamentals

are likely to remain strong. Walter E. Washington Convention Center, NW, Washington, DC

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10DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

DELTA ASSOCIATES

Delta Associates is a firm of experienced professionals offering consulting, valuation, and data services to the commercial

real estate industry for over 30 years. The firm’s practice is organized in four related areas:

1. Valuation of partial interests in commercial real estate assets.

2. Consulting, research and advisory services for commercial real estate projects, including market studies, market entry

strategies, asset performance enhancement studies, pre-acquisition due diligence, and financial and fiscal impact

analyses.

3. Litigation support, including dispute resolution, from forensic fact-finding to mediation and expert witness services.

Damages, material adverse change, and contract disputes are specialties.

4. Subscription data for selected metro regions for office, industrial, retail, condominium, and apartment markets.

For more information on Delta Associates, please visit DeltaAssociates.com.

Delta’s Retail Practice Team includes: David Parham, Senior Vice President; Alexander (Sandy) Paul, Executive Vice President;

Elizabeth F. Norton, National Research Director; and Luke Gelber, Associate.

© 2013. All rights reserved. You may neither copy nor disseminate this report. If quoted, proper attribution is required.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Center for Regional Analysis, Census Bureau, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, CoStar, Delta Associates, ESRI, Morgan Stanley, National Retail Federation, Real Capital Analytics, ShopperTrak, University of Michigan, Washington Business Journal, Washington Post

Although the information contained herein is based on sources which Delta Associates (DA) believes to be reliable, DA makes no representation or warranty that such information is accurate or complete. All prices, yields, analyses, computations, and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Under no circumstances should any such information be considered representations or warranties of DA of any kind. Any such information may be based on assumptions which may or may not be accurate, and any such assumption may differ from actual results. This report should not be considered investment advice.

Headquarters

500 Montgomery Street, Suite 600

Alexandria, VA 22314

703-836-5700

[email protected]

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11DELTA ASSOCIATES | THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

YEAR-END 2013WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

THE RAPPAPORT COMPANIES

For more than 25 years, The Rappaport Companies has provided Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia with professional

real estate services centered exclusively on the retail segment. Founded by Gary D. Rappaport, SCSM/SCLS/SCMD/SCDP,

The Rappaport Companies provides the following services for some of the area’s most prominent landlords, retailers, asset

managers, commercial real estate companies and financial institutions:

• Property Management

• Landlord & Tenant Representation

• Construction Management

• Institutional JV’s

• Marketing

• Consulting & Receivership Services

• Development

Mr. Rappaport is a past Chairman and Trustee of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). He is the author of

“Investing in Retail Properties,” which explains how to structure real estate partnerships for sharing capital appreciation

and cash flow. The information contained in the book is the basis for classes he teaches for ICSC’s University of Shopping

Centers and Executive Learning Series and as a guest instructor at Johns Hopkins, Georgetown, American and George Mason

universities.

Led by President Henry Fonvielle, the Rappaport Retail Brokerage team of Bill Dickinson, Michael Howard, Melissa Webb, Susan

Bourgeois, Will Collins, Kristin Perry, Pat O’Meara, Jim Farrell, Michael Kang, Jason Yanushonis, Shawn Carrington, Jessica

Hurst, and Lindsey Barden includes the region’s top experts in the retail industry.

The Rappaport Companies

8405 Greensboro Drive

Eighth Floor

McLean, Virginia 22102-5121

571-382-1200

www.rappaportco.com

PROPERTY MANAGEMENT, CONSULTING & RECEIVERSHIP:

Larry SpottExecutive V.P. [email protected]

Charlotte StrainSenior V.P. of Asset [email protected]

Henry FonviellePresident [email protected]

CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT & DEVELOPMENT:

LEASING & BROKERAGE: