ECONOMIC SUMMIT 2019RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IN WASHINGTON COUNTY

A REVIEW AND A PREVIEW

PRESENTED BY VARDELL H CURTIS, RCE, EPRO

CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

WASHINGTON COUNTY BOARD OF REALTORS®

SHIFTING WINDS OF CHANGECHANGE IS A FUNNY THING. SOMETIMES IT’S SO GRADUAL WE BARELY NOTICE IT, AND OTHER TIMES CHANGE HAPPENS SO FAST THAT IT FLASHES BEFORE OUR EYES. WHETHER SLOW, ABRUPT, OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO, WINDS ARE CHANGING OUR LOCAL REAL ESTATE HOUSING MARKET.

LIKE THE WEATHER, THESE WINDS WILL COME AT DIFFERENT TIMES TO DIFFERENT MARKETS IN THE APPROACHING MONTHS AND YEARS AND THEY WILL ALTER OUR STATUS QUO.

HOWEVER, ITS NO TIME TO PUT OUR HEADS IN THE SAND OR WISH FOR THE GOOD OLD DAYS OF 2016 AND 2017. SO, WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?

REALTOR® MAGAZINE

SHIFTING WINDS – PHASE 1OUR MARKET HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED PHASE ONE WINDS: A ROBUST, ALMOST MANIC SELLERS’ MARKET IN WHICH PRICES RISE, BUYERS BUY IN FRENZIED MULTIPLE-OFFER SITUATIONS, AND NEW CONSTRUCTION IS HAPPENING AT RATES NOT SEEN SINCE THE RECESSION. BROKERS SAW THEIR AGENTS EXPAND INTO TEAMS OR BRING MORE PEOPLE ONTO THEIR TEAMS.

ADDITIONALLY, NUMBERS OF SOCIAL MEDIA FOLLOWERS INCREASED AT STAGGERING RATES – BUT THESE FOLLOWERS WERE JUST THAT, FOLLOWERS. THEY WERE NOT ALWAYS BEING CONVERTED TO CLIENTS PRIMARILY BECAUSE AGENTS WERE JUST TOO BUSY TO FOLLOW UP.

SHIFTING WINDS – PHASE 2THESE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO BLOW SOME LEAVES OFF OF THE TREES IN OUR MARKET, WITH THE WHISPERINGS OF “IS THE PARTY OVER?” IN CERTAIN SEGMENTS OF THE MARKET, PRICES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON, WHILE IN OTHERS, PRICES START TO FALL. BUYERS NOW HAVE ANOTHER OPTION AT THEIR DISPOSAL – THEY CAN AND DO WALK AWAY FROM A HOUSE WHEN THEY DON’T LIKE THE PRICE, TERMS, OR NECESSARY REPAIRS.

IN PHASE 2, HOUSES WILL REMAIN ON THE MARKET FOR MONTHS INSTEAD OF DAYS OR WEEKS, AND INVENTORIES WILL BEGIN TO RISE. OFFERS ON LISTINGS BEGIN TO DROP FROM MULTIPLE TO PERHAPS JUST ONE. INSPECTION ISSUES THAT WERE IGNORED IN PHASE 1 BECOME NEGOTIATED AGAIN. NEW CONSTRUCTION BEGINS TO TAPER, AND UNSOLD HOMES TRANSLATE INTO A SURGE OF EXPIRED LISTINGS. SELLERS BECOME MORE SELECTIVE ABOUT THE AGENT THEY CHOOSE TO REPRESENT THEIR PROPERTY. THEY’LL BE LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT AGENTS’ SALES RECORDS AND THE INFORMATION AGENTS PROVIDE IN CONTENT MARKETING FOR SIGNS OF A SALESPERSON’S OVERALL EFFECTIVENESS. YOU COULD SAY PHASE 2 IS A REALITY CHECK.

SHIFTING WINDS – PHASE 3SHIFTING WINDS BEGIN A CYCLE OF RISING INVENTORIES, SELLERS LOWERING THEIR LISTING PRICES, AND BUYERS WAITING TO GET WHAT THEY WANT IN THEIR CHOSEN HOUSE WITHOUT CONCESSIONS. THIS CYCLE BECOMES INCREASINGLY TIGHT THE LONGER PHASE 3 LINGERS. APPRAISAL AND REPAIR ISSUES WILL RETURN TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE. BUYERS ARE IN SOLID DRIVER’S SEAT MODE. HOWEVER, BANKS MAY TIGHTEN THEIR LENDING STANDARDS IN AN EFFORT TO STAVE OFF FUTURE FORECLOSURES, AND AS A RESULT, IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN A MORTGAGE LOAN. UPPER-TIER SELLERS LEASE THEIR PROPERTIES INSTEAD OF SELLING THEM AT PRICES THEY CONSIDER TO BE TOO LOW. HOMEOWNERS’ EQUITY IN MID-TO-LOWER-TIER MARKETS SLOWS AND SHORT SALES RETURN.

SHIFTING WINDS – PHASE 4WINDS BEGIN THE SLOW RECOVERY PROCESS. MARKETS EVENTUALLY BECOME BALANCED WITH BUYERS AND SELLERS HAVING A FAIRLY EQUAL SAY IN SALES DEFINITIONS. EVENTUALLY, WINDS SHIFT AND RETURN AGAIN TO A SELLER’S MARKET.

OFTEN BECAUSE OF HARDSHIPS EXPERIENCED BY NATURAL REAL ESTATE CYCLES AND HOUSING MARKET “CORRECTIONS,” THE SHIFTING WINDS ALSO HELP USHER IN THE NEXT GENERATION OF BUSINESS MODELS.

THE KEY TO NOT ONLY SURVIVE BUT TO THRIVE IN ALL PHASES OF THE SHIFTING WINDS IS OPEN-MINDEDNESS AND A WILLINGNESS TO BE PROACTIVE OF THE INEVITABLE CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS. ADAPT AND EVOLVE.

IS THE REAL ESTATE MARKET GOING TO CRASH?HOUSING CRASHES, TYPICALLY CAUSED BY A PERFECT STORM OF PROBLEMS BUILT UP OVER TIME, ARE OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE. WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW IS THAT LEADING INDICATORS SHOW A STRONG ECONOMY AND DON’T SUPPORT THEORIES THAT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IS ON THE PRECIPICE OF A DOWNTURN.

THE MARKET HAS CLEARLY STARTED CORRECTING OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. INTEREST RATES HAVE RISEN, REDUCING AFFORDABILITY AND DAMPENING BUYER DEMAND. HOWEVER, INVENTORY IS PUSHING ABOVE ANEMIC LEVELS THAT FUELED PRICE GROWTH, AND NOW WE HAVE A MORE BALANCED MARKET.

THIS IS NOT 2008, WHEN HOME PRICES NATIONWIDE FELL BY 15 PERCENT TO 20 PERCENT.

REALTOR® MAGAZINE

OUR BAROMETER TO THE SOUTHWHEN THE HOUSING CRASH HIT LAS VEGAS, IT HIT HARD. THE ENTIRE LOCAL HOUSING MARKET, WHICH HAD BEEN BOOMING, BECAME SOMETHING OF A “NATIONAL CAUTIONARY TALE.” TODAY, MANY LOCALS ARE WONDERING IF THE SAME SITUATION IS BEING SET UP AGAIN.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT VEGAS TOO IS EXPERIENCING A LITTLE BIT OF A CORRECTION. OPTIMISM IS HIGH AND MANY BELIEVE THE CURRENT COOLING IN THE MARKET IS NOT SYMPTOMATIC OF A REAL ESTATE BUBBLE BECAUSE THE COST OF LIVING IS STILL GOOD. MUCH OF THE RECENT APPRECIATION IN HOUSING IS DUE TO “NATURAL” INFLATION AND, FURTHERMORE, LOANS, WHILE HARDER TO GET, ARE STILL GOING TO QUALIFIED BORROWERS.

REAL ESTATE INVESTOR WIRE

COOLING HOUSING MARKETWITH BUYERS GRAPPLING WITH INCREASING MORTGAGE RATES, PRICES WERE RIPE TO STABILIZE. THIS COOLDOWN TREND FIRST SURFACED IN THE SUMMER OF 2018 SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF EXPLOSIVE PRICES.

ACCORDING TO DAVID M. BLITZER, CHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR OF THE INDEX COMMITTEE AT S&P DOW JONES INDICES, “ONE FACTOR CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKER HOUSING MARKET IS THE RECENT INCREASE IN MORTGAGE RATES.”

CASE-SHILLER / RIS MEDIA

PROPOSED TARIFF HIKE SUSPENDEDIN A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR HOUSING AFFORDABILITY, THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA AGREED TO SUSPEND A JANUARY 1, 2019 TARIFF BOOST TO 25% ON $200 BILLION WORTH OF CHINESE IMPORTS, INCLUDING $10 BILLION OF GOODS USED BY THE HOME BUILDING INDUSTRY.

HOWEVER, IF THE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS FAIL TO RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES, THE TARIFF ON CHINESE GOODS WILL JUMP FROM 10% TO 25%, WHICH WOULD BE EQUIVALENT TO A $2.5 BILLION TAX ON HOUSING.

NAHB.COM

2019 PREDICTIONS & EXPECTATIONS• THIS IS NOT A BUBBLE. A BUBBLE HAPPENS IN THE HOUSING MARKET WHEN BUILDERS ARE IRRATIONALLY BUILDING ON

SPEC WHEN DEMAND IS FALLING OR WHEN BUYERS ARE SEEING PRICES GO UP AND CAN’T REALLY AFFORD TO BUY BUT DO SO BECAUSE THEY FIGURE THEY CAN BUILD UP EQUITY QUICKLY. NEITHER SCENARIO APPLIES TO THIS HOUSING CYCLE AT THIS TIME.

• HOUSING INVENTORY REMAINS INCREDIBLY TIGHT, MEANING THAT BUYING A HOME IS A VERY EXPENSIVE AND DIFFICULT PROPOSITION FOR MANY. AT THE SAME TIME, EXPENSIVE RENTS AND LOW WAGES HAVE CONSTRAINED PEOPLE’S ABILITY TO SAVE UP FOR A DOWN PAYMENT.

• HOMEBUYERS CAN EXPECT TO PAY MORE IN INTEREST. AND RISING MORTGAGE RATES WILL CAUSE RIPPLE EFFECTS THROUGHOUT THE MARKET. WHAT’S DRIVING THE SLOWDOWN IN PRICE APPRECIATION AND THE RISE IN INVENTORY IS NOT SO MUCH THAT INVENTORY IS BEING CREATED, BUT THAT DEMAND IS DECREASING. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY MORTGAGE-RATE SENSITIVE HOUSING MARKET.

• INVENTORY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BUT UNLESS THERE IS A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE ECONOMIC TRAJECTORY, DON’T EXPECT A BUYER’S MARKET ON THE HORIZON WITHIN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR BUYERS, IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET MORE COSTLY TO BUY, ESPECIALLY THE MOST-DEMANDED ENTRY-LEVEL REAL ESTATE.

2019 PREDICTIONS & EXPECTATIONS• IT COULD BE A SOFT FEW MONTHS OR EVEN YEARS OF STANDOFFS BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS, WITH THE BIG QUESTION OF WHICH COMES FIRST: SELLERS WHO SETTLE FOR LESS AFTER RECOGNIZING THAT THE PRICE THEY THOUGHT THEY WOULD GET IS BEYOND THE REACH OF BUYERS, OR INCOMES THAT CATCH UP WITH A HOUSING MARKET THAT GOT A LITTLE AHEAD OF ITSELF.

• THE PEAK BIRTH YEAR FOR MILLENNIALS WAS 1990; IT’S A GROUP THAT TURNED 28 LAST YEAR AND THUS ENTERED PRIME YEARS FOR HOME BUYING. AS IT HAPPENS, 28 IS EXACTLY THE MEDIAN RESPONSE IN A BANKRATE SURVEY THAT ASKED ADULTS THE IDEAL AGE TO BUY A HOME.

• HOUSING HAS BEEN INCHING TOWARD “NORMAL” AND IS ANTICIPATED TO STABILIZE THROUGH 2019. THIS YEAR LOOKS TO BE A PIVOTAL YEAR AS THE MARKET COOLS AND TRANSITIONS FROM ONE MARKED BY ROBUST RECOVERY INTO ONE MORE IN LINE WITH HISTORIC NORMS, AND MORE BALANCED BETWEEN BUYERS, SELLERS, AND RENTERS.

• PEOPLE IN GENERAL, BUY THEIR HOME BECAUSE OF TIMING IN THEIR LIVES, NOT TIMING IN THE MARKET.

• 2018 ENDED WITH THE HIGHEST INVENTORY IN YEARS AND IT’S LIKELY THAT SPRING WILL SEE MORE HOMES ON THE MARKET THAN IN RECENT YEARS. YES, COUPLED WITH RISING INTEREST RATES, THIS MAY CAUSE MORE PRICING PRESSURE. DON’T FORGET THOUGH, THAT THE ECONOMY IS STRONGER NOW THAN IT WAS BEFORE THE GREAT RECESSION.

2019 MORTGAGE RATES TO INCREASEBUYERS WILL LIKELY SEE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN THEIR MONTHLY PAYMENTS NEXT YEAR. MORTGAGE PAYMENTS ARE FORECASTED TO RISE 8.4 PERCENT THIS YEAR DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MORTGAGE RATES.

OVER THE LAST YEAR, THE MORTGAGE PAYMENT GROWTH RATE HAS EXCEEDED THE NUMBERS SEEN FOR HOME PRICE APPRECIATION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MANY ECONOMISTS ARE PREDICTING MORTGAGE RATES ABOVE 5 PERCENT IN 2019. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® PREDICTS THAT THE 30-YEAR FIXED INTEREST RATE TO AVERAGE AROUND 5.3 PERCENT.

REALTOR® MAGAZINE

INTEREST RATES TODAY ….. AND TOMORROW?THE INTEREST RATE YOU PAY ON YOUR HOME MORTGAGE HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON YOUR MONTHLY PAYMENT. THE HIGHER THE RATE, THE GREATER THE PAYMENT WILL BE. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF THE LOAN, A HALF OF A PERCENT (.5%) INCREASE IN INTEREST RATE CAN INCREASE A MONTHLY MORTGAGE PAYMENT SIGNIFICANTLY.

BUT DON’T LET THE PREDICTION THAT RATES WILL INCREASE STOP YOU FROM PURCHASING YOUR DREAM HOME THIS YEAR!

WILL WE PASS THE “5 PERCENT TEST?”AS MORTGAGE RATES RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING AND MOST ANALYSTS AGREE 2019 WILL SEE THREE ADDITIONAL HIKES, THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET WILL FACE A “5 PERCENT TEST,” AS REUTERS HAS DUBBED IT, WHEN INTEREST RATES SURPASS 5 PERCENT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2009, WHEN INTEREST RATES WERE 5.09 PERCENT.

IN FACT, WHEN FEES ARE INCLUDED, THE MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION (MBA) REPORTED 30-YEAR MORTGAGES ARE ALREADY AT 5 PERCENT OR HIGHER.

REAL ESTATE INVESTOR WIRE

WHAT IF I WAIT A YEAR TO BUY?NATIONAL HOME PRICES HAVE INCREASED BY 5.4% SINCE THIS TIME LAST YEAR. OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, INTEREST RATES HAVE REMAINED NEAR HISTORIC LOWS WHICH HAS ALLOWED MANY BUYERS TO ENTER THE MARKET AND LOCK IN LOW RATES.

WHILE SELLERS WILL LIKELY BE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT WHERE HOME VALUES ARE HEADED OVER THE NEXT 6 MONTHS, BUYERS SHOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LONG-TERM COST OF THE HOME.

HOME PRICES ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY 4.8% OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. THIS CHART DEMONSTRATES THE IMPACT THAT AN INCREASE IN INTEREST RATE WOULD HAVE ON THE MORTGAGE PAYMENT.

KEEPINGCURENTMATTERS.COM

A HEADWIND BUT NOT A MAJOR OBSTACLETHE RISING RATES MEAN POTENTIAL HOMEBUYERS WILL PAY ABOUT $35,000 MORE INTEREST ON A TYPICAL $220,000 HOME LOAN OVER 30 YEARS. HOWEVER, ECONOMISTS STILL RETAIN THE PERSPECTIVE THAT HOME LOAN COSTS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE MUCH MORE BEFORE THERE IS A TRUE SLUMP IN HOUSING ACTIVITY.

AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, RISING INTEREST RATES MAY SPUR AN INCREASE IN HOME SALES AS BUYERS RUSH TO CLOSE BEFORE RATES RISE FURTHER.

REAL ESTATE INVESTOR WIRE

BOTTOM LINEBE THANKFUL THAT YOU CAN STILL GET A BETTER INTEREST RATE THAN SOMEONE PURCHASING A HOME JUST 10 YEARS AGO, OR EVEN 20 YEARS AGO, AND SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN 40 YEARS AGO!

INTEREST RATES & THE STOCK MARKETUNCERTAINTY LOOMS AHEAD AS WE NOW TRANSITION INTO 2019. BUT ONE THING REMAINS CLEAR: BORROWING COSTS — AT LEAST FOR NOW – ARE STILL GOING UP.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE RATTLED MARKETS BY RAISING ITS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE IN DECEMBER, BRINGING THE TOTAL NUMBER OF RATE HIKES TO FOUR IN 2018. SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES WILL KEEP CLIMBING, BUT THE CENTRAL BANK SIGNALED THERE COULD BE TWO INTEREST RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR INSTEAD OF THE THREE IT PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.

EXPECT MORE VOLATILITY AS THE STOCK MARKET RESPONDS TO THE DAILY NEWS CYCLE. WE’LL PROBABLY SEE A STRONG MARKET RALLY OF MORE THAN 10 PERCENT FOLLOWED TO A RETURN TO BEAR MARKET TERRITORY FOR THE S&P 500. AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES, THE ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW WHILE FEARS OF AN IMPENDING RECESSION WILL GROW.

BANKRATE.COM

A BUMPY RIDE FOR THE S&P 500 STOCK INDEXWHILE THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK IN A RECESSION WITH THE STOCK MARKET BECOMING PESSIMISTIC, THE ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS – JOB CREATION, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND INFLATION RATE – ALL LOOK VERY SOLID. THE ONLY POTENTIAL RISK FOR A RECESSION IS IN A TRADE WAR – IF IT CAN BE AVERTED THROUGH NEGOTIATIONS, IT WILL BE BETTER FOR THE ECONOMY.

MOST BUYERS TODAY ARE LESS CONCERNED WITH STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AND ARE INSTEAD LOOKING AT INCOME PAYMENT RATIOS AND BEING ABLE TO AFFORD A MORTGAGE.

A MORE REALISTIC WAY OF LOOKING AT THINGS IS THAT THIS IS SIMPLY A REACTION IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING INTEREST RATES – A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO TO WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008. RISMEDIA.COM

AFFORDABLE HOUSING & HOUSING AFFORDABILITYAFFORDABLE HOUSING IS DEFINED AS A UNIT IN WHICH AN OWNER PAYS NO MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OF THEIR HOUSEHOLD INCOME TOWARDS HOUSING COSTS.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY REFERS TO THE GENERAL LEVEL OF HOUSING PRICES FOR ALL INCOME GROUPS.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS THREATENED DUE TO THE GAP BETWEEN THE ANNUAL REAL RATE OF INCREASE IN HOUSING PRICES OF 3.32 PERCENT AND THE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE IN HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF 0.36 PERCENT.

HOUSING COSTS TEND TO BE A HOUSEHOLD’S LARGEST SINGLE EXPENSE. AND IN UTAH, HOUSING PRICES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY DURING THE PAST FIVE YEARS.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN GENERAL IS OF GREATER CONCERN FOR OLDER UTAHNS THAN YOUNGER ONES.

UTAHFOUNDATION.ORG

HOUSING AFFORDABILITYTHE REAL ISSUE AROUND AFFORDABILITY AND RISING INTEREST RATES IS THE FACT THAT PRICES HAVE BEEN OUTSTRIPPING WAGE GROWTH. THE BOTTOM END OF THE MARKET, ESPECIALLY FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS, ARE ALREADY FEELING THE SQUEEZE, SO ANY RISE IN INTEREST RATES TAKES ANOTHER BITE OUT OF AFFORDABILITY.

*MY OPINION: THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHOULD RE-EVALUATE ITS MONETARY POLICY OF TIGHTENING CREDIT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SOFTENING INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, TO HELP EASE THE BURDEN ON POTENTIAL FIRST-TIME BUYERS AND ASSURE THAT A SLUMP IN THE MARKET CAUSES NO LASTING DAMAGE TO THE ECONOMY

RISMEDIA.COM

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CONCERNSHOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS AN ISSUE OF INCREASING CONCERN TO UTAHNS. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE UTAH FOUNDATION INITIATED ITS COMMUNITY QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX SURVEY IN 2011, THE AVAILABILITY OF QUALITY AFFORDABLE HOUSING WAS THE WORST-PERFORMING FACTOR ON THE INDEX. IN ADDITION, WHEN ASKED WHAT COULD MOST IMPROVE RESPONDENTS’ COMMUNITIES AS A PLACE TO LIVE, 13% MENTIONED IMPROVING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY, SECOND ONLY TO TRAFFIC CONDITIONS.

WHILE HOMEBUYERS HAVE SEEN A 44% INCREASE IN PRICES (2013-2018), RENTERS ARE ALSO SEEING HIGHER COSTS. SINCE 2005, RENTAL RATES HAVE INCREASED AT ABOUT 4% ANNUALLY AND IN RECENT YEARS ACCELERATED TO AS MUCH AS 6%.

UTAHFOUNDATION.ORG

WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN?THERE IS A LONG-STANDING RULE THAT A HOUSEHOLD SHOULD NOT SPEND MORE THAN 28% OF ITS INCOME ON HOUSING EXPENSES. WITH NEARLY HALF OF RENTERS (48%) SURVEYED ALREADY SPENDING MORE THAN THAT, AND WITH THEIR RENTS LIKELY TO RAISE AGAIN …. WHY ARE THEY RENTING?

WHEN ASKED WHY THEY HAVEN’T PURCHASED A HOME YET, NOT HAVING ENOUGH SAVED FOR A DOWN PAYMENT CAME IN AS THE TOP RESPONSE. MOST BELIEVE THAT “A 20% DOWN PAYMENT IS REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME.”

WWW.KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

RENT – VS - BUYTO MEET THE DIVERSE NEEDS OF OUR COMMUNITY, BOTH RENTAL HOUSING AND HOMEOWNERSHIP ARE IMPORTANT.

FOR SOME, RENTAL HOMES ARE THE MOST FINANCIALLY REALISTIC OPTION. AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING IS AN IMPORTANT STEPPING STONE THAT ALLOWS THEM TO ACCUMULATE SAVINGS AND PREPARE FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP.

FOR MANY, HOMEOWNERSHIP REPRESENTS THE AMERICAN DREAM. ASIDE FROM COMPRISING THEIR LARGEST FINANCIAL ASSET, HOMEOWNERSHIP PROVIDES SECURITY FROM UNWANTED MOVES AND CONTROL OVER FEATURES OF THEIR HOME.

FOR THESE REASONS, COMMUNITIES SHOULD WORK TO ENSURE THERE IS SUFFICIENT RENTAL AND HOMEOWNERSHIP STOCK TO MEET THE DIVERSE NEEDS OF ALL IN THE COMMUNITY.

FHA LOAN LIMITS FOR 2019THE FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION HAS ANNOUNCED ITS NEW LOAN LIMITS FOR 2019 AND MOST OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN AN INCREASE. IN HIGH-COST AREAS, THE NEW FHA LOAN LIMIT INCREASED TO $726,525, UP FROM $679,650 IN 2018. THE FHA ALSO INCREASED ITS FLOOR TO $314,827, UP FROM 2018’S $294,515.

FHA IS REQUIRED BY THE NATIONAL HOUSING ACT, AS AMENDED BY THE HOUSING AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT OF 2008, TO SET SINGLE-FAMILY FORWARD LOAN LIMITS AT 115% OF MEDIAN HOME PRICES, SUBJECT TO A FLOOR AND A CEILING ON THE LIMITS.

IN 2016, THE FHA INCREASED LOAN LIMITS FOR JUST 188 COUNTIES; IN 2017, THIS NUMBER JUMPED TO 2,948 COUNTIES, THEN TO 3,011 COUNTIES FOR 2018. IN 2019, THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT HAS RAISED FHA LOAN LIMITS IN 3,053 COUNTIES.

HOUSINGWIRE.COM

CONFORMING LOAN LIMITS RISE 6.9%THE MAXIMUM CONFORMING LOAN AMOUNT THAT FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC CAN BACK WILL INCREASE TO $484,350 (FROM $453,100) IN 2019, A 6.9% INCREASE.

THIS INCREASE WILL HELP KEEP HOMEOWNERSHIP WITHIN REACH FOR MANY HOUSEHOLDS BY ENSURING LOAN LIMITS KEEP PACE WITH RISING HOME PRICES. WITHOUT THIS ASSURANCE, BORROWERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY RISK BEING PUSHED OUT OF THE MARKET.

FOR HIGH-COST AREAS, THE LIMITS WILL RISE TO $726,525 FROM $679,650.

SALT LAKE COUNTY: $600,300 (SAME AS 2018)

TOOELE COUNTY: $600,300 (SAME AS 2018)

SUMMIT COUNTY: $726,525 (UP FROM $679,650 IN 20180

ALL OTHER UTAH COUNTIES: $484,350 (UP FROM $453,100 IN 2018)

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CONSTRUCTION BOTTLENECKSAFFORDABILITY IS BEING SQUEEZED DUE TO SEVERAL BOTTLENECKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONSTRUCTION PROCESS. BETWEEN 2007 AND 2017:

• IMPACT AND PERMIT FEES AVERAGED 26% INCREASE

• DEVELOPING RAW LAND INCREASED BY 40%

• COST OF BUILDING INCREASED BY 33%

• AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION JOBS MONTHLY WAGE INCREASED BY 26%

LABOR SHORTAGES, LAND COSTS, AND INCREASING MATERIAL COSTS ARE DRIVERS OF INCREASED RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COSTS AND HAVE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED HOUSING AFFORDABILITY.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

AVERAGE HOME CONSTRUCTION COSTS UPAVERAGE HOME CONSTRUCTION COSTS HAVE INCREASED 33%:

• DRYWALL INCREASED 15%

• CABINETRY INCREASED 42%

• ROOFING INCREASED 70 PERCENT

• SIDING INCREASED 148%

WHEN IT COMES TO LAND, TYPICALLY THE BEST IS NOT SAVED FOR LAST, RATHER THE BEST GOES FIRST. WHAT IS LEFT IS HARDER GROUND LOCATIONS THAT ARE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO EXCAVATE, OR HAVE MAJOR ENGINEERING ISSUES.

LOCAL OPPOSITION (NIMBYISM) HAS DRIVEN UP COSTS AND CONSTRAINED SUPPLY, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH DENSITY RENTAL HOUSING.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

BUILDER CONFIDENCE DROPSGROWING AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS RESULTED IN BUILDER CONFIDENCE IN THE MARKET FOR NEWLY-BUILT SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES TO FALL ACCORDING TO THE NAHB/WELLS FARGO HOUSING MARKET INDEX (HMI). DESPITE THE DROP, BUILDER SENTIMENT STILL REMAINS IN POSITIVE TERRITORY.

BUILDERS REPORT THAT THEY CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNS OF CONSUMER DEMAND FOR NEW HOMES BUT THAT CUSTOMERS ARE TAKING A PAUSE DUE TO CONCERNS OVER RISING INTEREST RATES AND HOME PRICES.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS®

A MORE CAUTIOUS APPROACHFOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, SHORTAGES OF LABOR AND LOTS ALONG WITH RISING REGULATORY COSTS HAVE LED TO A SLOW RECOVERY IN SINGLE-FAMILY CONSTRUCTION.

WHILE HOME PRICE GROWTH ACCOMMODATED INCREASING CONSTRUCTION COSTS DURING THIS PERIOD, RISING MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES IN RECENT MONTHS COUPLED WITH THE CUMULATIVE RUN-UP IN PRICING HAS CAUSED HOUSING DEMAND TO STALL.

WITH THE PROSPECT OF FUTURE INTEREST RATE HIKES IN STORE, MANY BUILDERS HAVE ADOPTED A MORE CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO MARKET CONDITIONS.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS®

BUILDING PERMITS IN 2018SINGLE-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS BY CITY

ST. GEORGE 1,036

WASHINGTON 604

HURRICANE 367

IVINS 127

SANTA CLARA 83

COUNTY 66

TOQUERVILLE 32

LA VERKIN 23

TOTAL 2,338

(2017 2,212)

(2016 1,771)

ECONOMICS 101 – SUPPLY & DEMANDAS ECONOMICS 101 TEACHES, PRICE MOVEMENTS ARE THE WAY THAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND MATCH UP WITH EACH OTHER. BUT IN THE HOUSING SECTOR ESPECIALLY, THAT ADJUSTMENT CAN TAKE A WHILE.

IN CONTRAST WITH THE STOCK MARKET, WHERE RELATIVELY UNEMOTIONAL TRADERS ARE BUYING AND SELLING SHARES EVERY DAY AND THE MARKET STAYS LIQUID, HOME PURCHASE AND SALES DECISIONS CAN TAKE MONTHS AND ARE DEEPLY EMOTIONAL FOR THE PARTICIPANTS.

IT SEEMS THAT SELLERS ARE UNHAPPY REALIZING THAT THEY AREN’T GOING TO GET WHAT THEY THOUGHT THEIR HOUSE WAS WORTH SIX MONTHS AGO, AND BUYERS STILL THINK HOMES ARE TOO EXPENSIVE. IT’S A STANDOFF. AND THE OUTCOME OF THE STANDOFF WILL, IN THE AGGREGATE, PLAY A ROLE IN SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY.

THE NEW YORK TIMES

INVENTORY “COMING SOON”RESIDENTIAL SUBDIVISIONS RECENTLY RECORDED

VILLAS AT SUN RIVER – PHASE 5 ARCADIA VACATIONS RESORT – PHASE 2

CORNERSTONE – PHASE 5 FOSSIL HILLS TOWNHOMES – PHASE 9 & 10

INDIAN KNOLLS - PHASE 3A GRAND HEIGHTS – PHASE 1

COTTAGES AT THE VILLAS AT STUCKI FARMS – PHASE 1 CAMBRIA TOWNHOMES

SANDTOWN BUNGALOWS REDWOOD ESTATES – PHASE 8B

MOENAVE CONDOMINIUM LOTS – 11, 12, 13, 14 ESCAPES AT THE LEDGES – PHASE 5

MEADOW VALLEY FARMS – PHASE 11 MAPLE ESTATES – PHASE 3

SHOOTING STAR- PHASE 1 VILLAS AT GREEN SPRINGS – PHASE 2

EAGLE GATE TITLE

INVENTORY “COMING SOON”MULTI-FAMILY APARTMENTS / TOWNHOMES RECENTLY RECORDED

GRAYHAWK APARTMENT COMPLEX – 240 UNITS RED MOUNTAIN VISTAS

LEGACY RIDGE APARTMENTS (NOW OPEN) DSU STUDENT HOUSING – 700 EAST 100 SOUTH

FOSSIL HILLS TOWNHOME COMMUNITY JOULE PLAZA – 197 LUXURY APARTMENTS

BLACKHAWK TOWNHOMES CITY VIEW – MIXED-USE RETAIL / APARTMENT COMPLEX

BLACKHAWK TOWNHOMES AT TONAQUINT

EAGLE GATE TITLE

POPULATION GROWTH IN 2018DESPITE A DECLINE IN BIRTHS AND THE RATE OF PEOPLE MOVING TO THE STATE, UTAH’S POPULATION CONTINUES TO GROW.

THE STATE POPULATION GREW BY AN ESTIMATED GROWTH RATE OF ABOUT 1.69 PERCENT. UTAH’S POPULATION IS BELIEVED TO HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 14.6 PERCENT SINCE THE APRIL 2010 CENSUS.

IN ALL, 27 OF THE 29 COUNTIES IN THE STATE EXPERIENCED AN ESTIMATED POPULATION GROWTH. GARFIELD COUNTY (-0.19%) AND EMERY COUNTY (-0.04%) WERE THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS.

WASHINGTON COUNTY +3.29% [5,449 ABSOLUTE CHANGE]

KSL.COM

COST OF LIVING INDEX THE COUNCIL FOR COMMUNITY AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH (C2ER) PRODUCES THE COST OF LIVING INDEX TO PROVIDE A USEFUL AND ACCURATE MEASURE OF LIVING COST DIFFERENCES AMONG URBAN AREAS.

THE COST OF LIVING INDEX MEASURES RELATIVE PRICE LEVELS FOR CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES IN PARTICIPATING AREAS. THE AVERAGE FOR ALL PARTICIPATING PLACES, BOTH METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN, EQUALS 100, AND EACH PARTICIPANT’S INDEX IS READ AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE AVERAGE FOR ALL PLACES.

COUNCIL FOR COMMUNITY AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

COST OF LIVING INDEX (COMPARATIVE DATA FOR 268 URBAN AREAS – 3RD QUARTER)

METRO/MICRO COMPOSITE GROCERY HOUSING UTILITIES TRANSPORTATION HEALTH CARE MISC.SERVICES

CEDAR CITY 90.0 95.4 77.0 98.7 108.4 85.1 91.7

OGDEN/CLEARFIELD 102.1 99.0 104.7 88.9 107.9 101.9 103.6

PROVO/OREM 99.9 96.5 98.1 86.9 108.0 97.0 104.6

ST.GEORGE (2018) 102.8 113.3 95.1 101.2 105.3 91.3 106.3

ST.GEORGE (2017) 99.9 110.4 97.8 89.0 102.6 92.7 100.7

SALT LAKE CITY 105.0 109.7 104.9 89.4 112.6 101.3 106.3

HARLINGEN, TX 76.5 81.7 62.6 97.7 81.0 85.4 77.4

NEW YORK/MANHATTAN 240.6 138.2 520.8 119.7 117.7 112.8 136.9

LAS VEGAS 103.8 96.7 119.9 95.7 107.1 102.6 95.2

PHOENIX 97.4 99.5 93.2 110.2 100.6 90.7 96.5

COUNCIL FOR COMMUNITY AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

STATISTICAL SUMMARY

MLS STATISTICAL REPORTSDAYS ON MARKET ACTIVE LISTINGS ABSORPTION RATE

NOTICES OF DEFAULT AND TRUSTEES DEEDS

OPPORTUNITY ZONES IN WASHINGTON COUNTYPART OF THE TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT OF 2017, OPPORTUNITY ZONES WERE CREATED TO INCREASE TAX-ADVANTAGED INVESTMENT IN LOW-INCOME AREAS. GOED AND THE DEPARTMENT OF WORKFORCE SERVICES WORKED COLLABORATIVELY WITH THE ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS ON A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO IDENTIFY THE STATE’S COMMUNITIES. OVERALL, 181 TRACTS WERE IDENTIFIED AS “IN NEED” IN UTAH, AND 46 WERE NOMINATED AS OPPORTUNITY ZONES TO THE U.S. TREASURY.

“THE OPPORTUNITY ZONES PROGRAM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRANSFORM COMMUNITIES IN UTAH. THE GOAL IS ECONOMIC PROSPERITY STATEWIDE.”

BUSINESS.UTAH.GOV/NEWS/U-S-TREASURY-RELEASES-PROPOSED-GUIDELINES-FOR-UTAH-OPPORTUNITY-ZONES/

QUALIFIED OPPORTUNITY ZONES

WASHINGTON COUNTY

INVESTORS WITH UNREALIZED CAPITAL GAINS FROM STOCKS, BONDS, REAL ESTATE OR PARTNERSHIP INTERESTS MAY RE-INVEST THOSE GAINS WITHIN 180 DAYS. GAINS THAT AN INVESTOR WANTS TO USE MUST BE PUT INTO A QUALIFIED OPPORTUNITY FUND.

A QUALIFIED OPPORTUNITY FUND IS AN INVESTMENT VEHICLE FOR AN INVESTOR’S CAPITAL GAINS TO AN OPPORTUNITY ZONE. ANY ENTITY CAN CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FUND, SO LONG AS IT SELF CERTIFIES ACCORDING TO THE GUIDELINES GIVEN BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY. THE OPPORTUNITY FUND IS REQUIRED TO INVEST 90% OF ITS ASSETS IN OPPORTUNITY ZONES ASSETS.

GOLDSTRIKE MINE – LIBERTY GOLD CORPON APRIL 26, 2018 WE COMMENCED A 14,900 M RC DRILL PROGRAM IN ORDER TO EXPAND THE CURRENT RESOURCE ESTIMATE. AS AT SEPTEMBER 30, 2018 WE HAVE DRILLED A TOTAL OF 21,860 M IN 192 HOLES. AREAS OF FOCUS FOR DRILLING INCLUDE AREAS OF HISTORIC MINING ACTIVITIES, INCLUDING HEAP LEACH PADS, BACK FILLED AREAS AND STOCKPILES, MOST OF WHICH LIE WITHIN THE FOOTPRINT OF THE PEA PIT. THESE ARE CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS WASTE BUT COULD BE RE-CLASSIFIED GOING FORWARD. OTHER TARGETS INCLUDE AREAS UNDER AND ADJACENT TO THE RESOURCE PITS AND SEVERAL RECONNAISSANCE TARGETS. ASSAY RESULTS ARE PENDING AND TO BE RELEASED AS THEY ARE RECEIVED. WE EXPECT TO PUBLISH THE REMAINING RESULTS OF RC DRILLING LATER THIS YEAR, AND EARLY NEXT YEAR. OUR GOAL IS TO COMPLETE A RESOURCE UPDATE IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2019.

WHAT WILL 2019 BE LIKE FOR SELLERS?ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS A SELLER’S MARKET, SELLERS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THEIR INCREASING COMPETITION AND SHOULDN’T NECESSARILY EXPECT TO NAME THEIR PRICE AND GET IT IN FULL – A CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW YEARS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRICED SELLERS, MAY FIND IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO SELL AND REQUIRE OFFERING INCENTIVES, SUCH AS PRICE CUTS OR OTHER OFFERINGS. WITH LESS DEMAND IN THE MARKET, THERE WILL BE FEWER BIDDING WARS AND MULTIPLE OFFERS. HOWEVER, WITH INVENTORY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED, SELLERS WHO PRICE COMPETITIVELY CAN STILL WALK AWAY WITH A HANDSOME AMOUNT OF PROFIT, BUT NOT THE PRICE JUMP OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS YEARS.

REALTOR.COM

WHAT WILL 2019 BE LIKE FOR BUYERSBUYING A HOME WILL BE AN EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE UNDERTAKING IN 2019 AS MORTGAGE RATES AND HOME PRICES INCREASE. BUYERS WHO ARE ABLE TO STAY IN THE MARKET WILL FIND LESS COMPETITION AS MORE BUYERS ARE PRICED OUT, BUT WILL FEEL AN INCREASED SENSE OF URGENCY TO CLOSE BEFORE IT GETS EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF HOMES FOR SALE IS INCREASING, WHICH IS AN IMPROVEMENT FOR BUYERS, THE MAJORITY OF NEW INVENTORY IS FOCUSED IN THE MID-TO-HIGHER-END PRICE TIER, NOT ENTRY-LEVEL. BUYERS LARGEST STRUGGLE MAY BE RECONCILING WANTS, NEEDS AND BUDGET.

REALTOR.COM

SEARCHING FOR THE RIGHT HOMENAHB’S HOUSING TRENDS REPORT DETERMINED THAT 54% OF THOSE ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN THE HOME BUYING PROCESS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO FIND THE RIGHT HOME FOR THREE MONTHS OR LONGER. WHY IS IT TAKING THIS LONG? THE #1 REASON IS THEY CAN’T FIND A HOME AT A PRICE THEY CAN AFFORD.

SO WHAT’S NEXT FOR THESE VETERAN HOUSE HUNTERS WHO HAVE ALREADY BEEN LOOKING FOR AT LEAST THREE MONTHS? SIXTY-ONE PERCENT SAID THEY WOULD KEEP LOOKING. ONE OPTION THAT IS NOT IN THE CARDS FOR MOST OF THEM: GIVING UP.

EYEONHOUSING.ORG

HOMEBUYERS ARE INVESTING MORE TIME

HOME EQUITY – PRICE APPRECIATION

METRO NATIONAL ONE-YEAR HOME FIVE-YEAR HOME

AREA RANKING PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGE

OGDEN 14 11.49% 46.32%

SALT LAKE 24 10.69% 47.09%

PROVO 26 10.55% 48.25%

ST.GEORGE 52 9.14% 42.88%

LOGAN 88 7.52% 33.76%

FAST FACT:The average Utah homeowner has gained $20,526 in home equity over the past year.

Price Appreciation by Metro Area (3Q 2018)

#4 IN HOME PRICE APPRECIATION

#5 IN HOME EQUITY GAINS

AMERICA’S HEALTHIEST STATESMANY AMERICAN’S STRIVE TO LIVE HEALTHY LIVES. FROM GYM MEMBERSHIPS TO A DEMAND FOR ORGANIC, WHOLE FOODS, U.S. CONSUMERS ARE VOTING FOR HEALTHIER LIFESTYLES WITH THEIR DOLLAR.

SOME HEALTH-MINDED HOMEBUYERS MIGHT EVEN WANT TO LIVE IN A STATE THAT ACTIVELY PROMOTES HEALTH AND WELLNESS. IF YOU COULD BUY A HOUSE ANYWHERE IN THE U.S., WITH A HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT BEING A PRIORITY, HERE ARE THE TOP 10 STATES YOU MIGHT WANT TO CHOOSE FROM, ACCORDING TO THE UNITED HEALTH FOUNDATION’S AMERICA’S HEALTH RANKINGS REPORT.

UTAH HAS INCREDIBLE ACCESS TO GREEN SPACES AND A HOST OF YEAR-ROUND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, WHICH IS WHY MORE PEOPLE ARE FLOCKING TO IT EVERY YEAR. A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO MOVE TO UTAH ARE LOOKING FOR THAT QUALITY-OF-LIFE FACTOR. THEY WANT OPEN SPACES AND OUTDOOR EXERCISE. IT’S DIFFERENT FOR EVERYONE, SOME WANT HIKING AND FISHING WHILE OTHERS WANT ROCK CLIMBING.

BANKRATE.COM

1. MASSACHUSETTS

2. HAWAII

3. VERMONT

4. UTAH

5. CONNECTICUT

6. MINNESOTA

7. COLORADO

8. NEW HAMPSHIRE

9. WASHINGTON

10. NEW YORK

MILLENNIALS IN THE MARKETPLACEMILLENNIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE UP THE LARGEST SEGMENT OF BUYERS NEXT YEAR, ACCOUNTING FOR 45 PERCENT OF MORTGAGES, COMPARED TO 17 PERCENT OF BOOMERS, AND 27 PERCENT OF GEN-XERS. WHILE FIRST-TIME BUYERS WILL STRUGGLE, OLDER MILLENNIAL MOVE-UP BUYERS WILL HAVE MORE OPTIONS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-TIER PRICE POINT AND WILL MAKE UP THE MAJORITY OF MILLENNIALS WHO CLOSE IN 2019. LOOKING FORWARD, 2020 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PEAK MILLENNIAL HOME BUYING YEAR WITH THE LARGEST SEGMENT OF MILLENNIALS TURNING 30 YEARS OLD. MILLENNIALS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO MAKE UP THE LARGEST SHARE OF HOME BUYERS FOR THE NEXT DECADE AS THEIR HOUSING NEEDS ADJUST OVER TIME.

REALTOR.COM

BALANCED IN 2019IF THE EXPECTATIONS ABOUT HOUSING IN 2019 CAN BE SUMMED UP IN ONE WORD, IT’S THIS: BALANCED.

AFTER MONTHS AND MONTHS ON A RUNAWAY TRACK, HOME PRICES HAVE TEMPERED, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN 2019. ANALYST ARE ANTICIPATING ANYWHERE FROM 2.2 TO 3.79 PERCENT GROWTH IN HOME PRICES FOR THE YEAR – A CONSIDERABLE DIP FROM PAST YEARS, BUT AN INDICATOR OF A LEVELING-OUT MARKET.

THE DECELERATION, HOWEVER, IS NOT LIKELY TO OVERCOME OTHER PRESSURES, LIKE CLIMBING MORTGAGE RATES AND SHORT STARTER SUPPLY, CHANGING CONDITIONS FOR HOMEBUYERS AND SELLERS.

RISMEDIA.COM

2019 FORECAST SUMMARYHOUSING EXPERTS SAY THE LATTER PART OF 2018 HAS PAVED THE WAY FOR A MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING MARKET THIS YEAR, ESPECIALLY FOR ENTRY-LEVEL BUYERS WHO WERE SIDELINED BY SKY-HIGH PRICES, COMPETITION AND SCANT INVENTORY.

PRICES FELL AND FLATTENED IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND RATES HOVERED AROUND 5 PERCENT WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINED LOW AND WAGES BEGAN TO RISE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINED MIGHT GIVE BUYERS A BETTER SHOT AT BUYING A HOME IN EARLY 2019.

FOR HOMEOWNERS, EQUITY WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP IF HOME VALUES KEEP RISING AS PREDICTED – ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY THAN IN 2018. THIS WILL ADD TO THE ENORMOUS EQUITY GAINS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS AND GIVE HOMEOWNERS MORE OPTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO USING CREDIT.

LASTLY, 2019 LOOKS TO BE A STRONG MARKET FOR SELLERS AS INVENTORY SLOWLY EXPANDS. FOR THOSE WHO SELL ONLY TO GET BACK IN THE SAME MARKET AS BUYERS, COOLING HOME PRICES CAN BE A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD. ON ONE HAND, YOU’LL FETCH LESS THAN PREMIUM FOR YOUR PROPERTY, BUT YOU’LL ALSO HAVE TO PAY LESS, RELATIVELY SPEAKING, FOR YOUR NEXT HOUSE.

THERE ARE CLEARER SKIES ON THE HORIZON AS AFFORDABILITY IMPROVED IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2018. THIS COULD BE A HOPEFUL HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWASHINGTON COUNTY BOARD OF REALTORS® REALTOR® MAGAZINE

UTAHFOUNDATION.ORG RISMEDIA.COM

REAL ESTATE INVESTOR WIRE CASE-SHILLER

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® HOUSINGWIRE.COM

FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY CORELOGIC

BUSINESS.UTAH.GOV FREDDIE MAC

COUNCIL FOR COMMUNITY AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH KSL.COM

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS EYEONHOUSING.ORG

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS KEEPING CURRENT MATTERS

THE NEW YORK TIMES BANKRATE.COM

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UTAH ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®