Warm Up: When is it ok to invade a country?

Monday, March 10th, 2014.

Friday is the end of the Quarter!

Objective:

0 I will be able to predict what Russia will do next in the Crimean Conflict.

Language Objective:0 I will use a sentence stem to answer a question.

Vocabulary

0 Trade Pact – agreement between countries on terms of trade.0 European Union - A group of European countries that

participates in the world economy as one economic unit0 Pawn - used by others for their own purposes.0 The West – Europe and countries of European colonial history.0 Autonomous region - self-governing region in terms of local

issues.0 Prime Minister – similar to a president0 Breadbasket – area that is very fertile and produces more food

than it needs for its people.

Soviet Union 1922 - 1991

Ukraine

0Becomes part of the Soviet Union by 1921.

0Breaks away in 1991 when the Soviet Union dissolves.

0Known as the breadbasket of Europe due to its fertile farmland.

Long Term Issues

0 The biggest nation separating the EU and Russia.0 Often seen as a pawn between Russia and the West.0 A geostrategic pipeline runs through the Ukraine.

0 Both the US and Russia have sought to influence events to their benefit.

0 Began in the Bush era.0 Accelerated with Obama.

0 Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea .

0 2010 agreement permitted the fleet to stay until 2042.

Ukrainian Crisis0Started out as a protest over the handling of a

trade pact with European Union. 0A contentious election in 2010 saw pro-Russia

candidate and former Prime Minister Yanukovych win with narrow margins over Prime Minister Tymoshenko.

0Yanukovych won with strong support in the Eastern regions, with most regions in the West favoring Tymoshenko.

Ukrainian Revolution

0 November 2013 – the President refuses to sign a trade pact with the EU.0 Had been promising for a year to sign

it.0 Would have created closer ties with

the EU and generated economic growth.

0 Asks Russia for a $20 Billion loan.0Russia threatened to charge higher

prices for gas is the Ukraine signed the trade deal with the EU.

0 Pro-EU Ukrainians began protesting, eventually forcing Yanukovych from office.

Crimea

0 Autonomous region of the Ukraine

0 1954- part of Soviet Union (Russia + 14 other countries Russia took over)

0 1991 - voted to leave Russia and join with the Ukraine

0 Russia Black Fleet (Navy) stationed on Crimea.

0 2008 – Russia gives out Russian passports to Crimean citizens (makes them citizens of Russia).

Russia Invades Crimea?

0February 27th, 2014, unidentified pro-Russian troops seize control.0 Russia’s only year-round link to the Mediterranean Sea.0 Has controlled a port in Crimea for 230 years.0 Russia claims ethnic Russians were being mistreated.

0There is no evidence of this.

0March 16th, 2014 – Crimea to vote on whether to join Russia or stay with the Ukraine.

0Ukrainian Prime Minister declares the invasion an act of war.

Russia/Soviet Union0Georgia, 2008.

0Cross-border tensions with Russia exploded into a five-day conflict that saw Russian tanks and troops pour into the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as Georgian cities. 0Russia and Georgia each blamed the other for starting the conflict0Russia still has control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

0Afghanistan, 19790Soviet Union invades; fails to conquer.

Legal Issues0Russia has clearly recognized Ukraine and its present

borders. This was confirmed in:0 The Alma Ata Declaration of December 1991, which

consigned the Soviet Union to history, 0 The Budapest memorandum of 1994, offering security

guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for removing nuclear weapons from its territory

0 The 1997 agreement on the stationing of the Black Sea fleet in Crimean ports.

0 International Law says you cannot forcibly rescue foreigners declared nationals.

0Russia says it was invited in by the former PM; becomes a non issue once he was forced out.

What Will Russia Do?0 Use Force

0 Could easily defeat the Ukraine (Black Sea Fleet encircles 60% of the Ukraine).

0 Would be disruptive to industry, agriculture, oil and gas sales in the region for years.

0 Retreat0 60% of Crimea speaks Russian0 Only year-round warm water access to the Mediterranean

0 Retreat with conditions0 Crimea becomes semi-independent0 Gets a permanent agreement to keep the port in Crimea.

0 Advance into Ukraine0 Shows the world that they are not to be messed with.

TOD

0 I predict that Russia will ________________________________.