Case Study: Adaptation of herdsmen’s livelihoods under climate capacity

constraints in Inner Mongolia grasslands

Wang Jianwu

1. Introduction• 1.1 why choose Wulantuga Village?• VillageWulantuga Village lies in Xilin Gol League, which

has vast areas of grassland, being one of the 4 world-famous grasslands due to the rich variety of is meadows, plants and animals.

• The annual average temperature and annual average amount of precipitation are middle level in Inner Mongolia.

• The grassland here is the typical steppe, which is called semiarid typical steppe.

• Residents in this village are all herdsmen, most of them make a living on grassland husbandry.

1. Introduction• 1.2 Population and Grassland in Wulantuga

• There are 535 thousand mu of meadow in Wulantuga Village.

• There are 103 families and 363 people in the village. Every household owns over 5 thousand mu meadow in average.

• There are 23 997 livestock in the village, among which 2367 are large ones.

• (0-15years old 57 people) (15-59years old 263 people) (over 60years old 43 people) (Han people 134) (male 193, female 170)

• It is a pure grassland farming village.

1. Introduction

• 1.3 Research procedure• Oct 2009, Stakeholder meeting in County level

(Abaga county)

• June 2010, 1st Questionnaire (wulantuga)

• July 2011, 2nd Questionnaire (wulantuga)

• July 2011, Stakeholder meeting in Provincial level (Hohhot)

2. Vulnerability of climate change in Wulantuga village

• 2.1 climate change vulnerability in pilot village

• 1.Decrease of precipitation• 2.Black frost and white disaster• 3.Locust plague in the meadow

2. Vulnerability of climate change in Wulantuga village

• 2.2 Framework of climate change vulnerability

• physical vulnerability,• ecological vulnerability, • economic vulnerability,• population and society vulnerability,• culture and system vulnerability.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6物理脆弱性

生态脆弱性

经济脆弱性人口社会脆弱性

文化制度脆弱性

气候变化脆弱性

气候变化脆弱性

2. Vulnerability of climate change in Wulantuga village

Physical vulnerability

Ecological vulnerabilityCulture and institutionvulnerability

Population and societyvulnerability Economical vulnerability

Climate Change Vulnerability

2.3 Data and Results

2. Vulnerability of climate change in Wulantuga village

• 2.4 Conclusion of Climate change vulnerability

• The comprehensive vulnerability of Wulantuga village is 0.44(0 for extreme non-vulnerability, 1 for extreme vulnerability)。

• In the five vulnerability factors, the most vulnerable factor is ecological environment factor. is also the most direct factor that impact by climate change. The most un-vulnerability factor is physical factor, is also the most easily improve by government.

2. Vulnerability of climate change in Wulantuga village

• 2.4 Conclusion of Climate change vulnerability• The economical factor is a influence factor only less than

ecological environment factor. • The Population and society factor and the cultural and

institutional factor are quite equality with comprehensive vulnerability. That means the two factors have stability for the impact by climate change are indirect.

• In chain of climate change, the climate change causes impact to ecological environment direct firstly and secondly impact economical factor. That gives the influence to population-social factor and culture-institution factor. The main channel to reduce the vulnerability improve physical factor by government.

3 Economic analysis on herdsmen’s livelihood in the pilot village

• 3.1 Conception of climate capacity• Climate capacity is the threshold limits the survival and development

of living beings by one or more climate factors.• For example, typical steppe is the result of both temperature and

precipitation together. When temperature fluctuates slightly, water

becomes the decisive factor.

3 Economic analysis on herdsmen’s livelihood in the pilot village• 3.2 Climate capacity dilemma due to the rising economic and

social demands of herdsmen.

经济社会需求 气候容量YY

X X

Economic and socialdemands of herdsman

Climate capacity

3 Economic analysis on herdsmen’s livelihood in the pilot village

• 3.2 Climate capacity dilemma due to the rising economic and social demands of herdsmen.

△Y1

△Y2

制度性适应

x

y

△y1

技术性适应△y2

△y3

工程性适应

engineering adaptation

technical adaptation

institution adaptation

Adequate adaptation is achieved when △y1+△y2+△y3 >△Y1, which means we successfully solve the problem between climate capacity and the economic and social demands with adaptive measures. When the gaps are as wide as △Y2，△y1+△y2+△y3 <△Y2，we have no solution to solve the problem, which means the adaptation has its limit. It shows that even the maximum adaptation could not meet the climate capacity limit. We call this scenario climate capacity dilemma.

3. Economic analysis on herdsmen’s livelihoods in the pilot village

• 3.3 Economic analysis on herdsmen’s livelihood in the pilot village

• 3.3.1 Biomass and stock carrying capacity of the grasslands in the

pilot village

• Wulantuge village has 535 thousand mu meadows. We choose the median 70 kilograms per mu as the annual yield of grass, and the annual yield of grass is roughly 37.45 million kilograms. With every 16.2 mu meadows for one sheep, the stock carrying capacity in the village is around 33.0 thousand sheep. (2006 data)

• 3.3.2 Economic and social demands of herdsmen

• It shows that 300 sheep is the bottom line for one family to sustain livelihoods. That means 103*300=30.9 thousand sheep.

3. Economic analysis on herdsmen’s livelihoods in the pilot village

3.3.3 Household dilemma

Meadows are not equally distributed among households. In 88 households with statistics, 38 households have less than 5000 mu meadows, accounting for 43.2%, and 10 of them have less than 2500 mu meadows, and can hardly make both ends meet without the minimum subsistence guarantee. 11 households owns more than 10000 mu meadows, and their annual income is about 50 to 100 thousand RMB.

3.3.4 Community dilemma

A new grassland-livestock balance policy requiring 46.2 mu meadows for one sheep, and 100 mu meadows for one cow, with a supporting subsidy of 1.71 Yuan RMB per mu, due to the delegation of meadows. That means 65% decrease of 2006 level. Un-sustainable development

of Wulantuga village. That cause social and economic turbulence ---Climate Safety.

3. Economic analysis on herdsmen’s livelihoods in the pilot village

• 3.3.5 Scenario analysis • In this research, the fundamental assumption of the three scenarios is

similar to IPCC.• A1b scenario: If grassland deterioration has been successfully controlled,

fast growing regional economy provides certain number of non-herding jobs, and population growth rate declines, supposing declines to 10% of the present growth rate, the stock carrying capacity will surpass the present one in 20 years without any subsidies offered by the state.

• A2 scenario: If the grassland deterioration cannot be successfully controlled, regional economy grows slowly and hardly provide any employment for the pilot village, and the population keeps growing at the present speed, the stock carrying capacity will surpass the present one in 2 years without any subsidies offered by the state.

• B2 scenario: If the grassland deterioration has been partly controlled, regional economy grows at a moderate speed and provides a medium scale of employment, and population growth rate declines to 20% of the present rate, the stock carrying capacity will surpass the present one in 10 years without any subsidies.

4. Adaptation activity of herdsmen in Wulantuga village

• 4.1 Rent meadows• rent meadows has economies of scale with good climate conditions and

decreasing returns to scale in bad climate conditions.

• In 88 households with statistics, 6 households have rent meadows, 2 of them have less than 2000 mu meadows (6 of total, 33.3%),1 of them have more than 10000 mu meadows(11 of total,9.1%).households less than 2000 mu meadows need to survival, that is his top priority.

• 4.2 Buy hay in the winter• Almost every households had buy hay in the winter. That’s the major

expenditures of herdsmen.

• In 88 households with statistics, 69 households pay by bank loans.

• 4.3 Adjust livestock breeds.• Only sheep and cattle. Brake balance of five-livestock (sheep, goat,

horse, cattle, camel)

5. Countermeasures and suggestions

• 1. Setting up a grassland ecological compensation system

• 2. Providing subsidy projects covering all herdsmen

• 3. Setting up flexible policies for different types of grassland

• 4. Setting up an efficient communicating platform among government, mine enterprises, and herdsmen

• 5 Providing social security cover all the herdsmen

Acknowledge• This work was supported by the Adapting to Climate Change in

China (ACCC) project, funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the Swiss Agency for Development & Co-operation (SDC), and the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC).

• Thanks a lot.