“Wake me up tomorrow has already happened !”

suresh.sood@uts.edu.auGeektoid Mangala – SL

Surrey – 3B

Windows live – suresh.sood@hotmail.comSkype – sureshsood

Mob - +61 412 55 1101

Virtual WorldsVirtual Worlds

RFIDRFID

Scenario Narratives

Photo tourism & Neogeography

(Collective Intelligence)

Trendwatching

Scenario PlanningScenario Planning

Complex SystemsComplex Systems

Complex Event Processing

Hype cycles

Storytelling

ExperiencesExperiences

Amazon Web Services

MMIS

Storytelling Theory

• Human mind as vehicle for storytelling

(Hiltunen, 2002; Howard,1989)

• Humans know story before reading

(Fisher,1987)

• Innate storytelling logic – Homo narrans ( the storytelling ape)

“…in such personal memoirs as diaries and journals, a person seeks unconsciously and partly self-consciously a narrative frame for life…” (McAdam, 1993).

“When people punctuate their own living into stories, they impose a formal coherence on what is otherwise a flowing soup”

( Weick, 1998, p128).

Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, PalmPilot, Founder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute

Author, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004

“Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”

You don’t wait for the future. You create it.

Hwang Chang Gyu,President, Samsung SemiconductorBusinessWeek, 25 October 2004, 58

Action Plans

Scan trends Identify key driversGenerate ScenarioStories

Generate Strategies

i.e. action plans

Test with vision and goals

Are strategies robust? Do they work in most

or all scenarios?

Do strategies align with vision, mission

and goals?

Robust Adaptive Strategies Eric Beinhocker (2001)

• Strategy development i.e. actions requires prediction of future

• World is inherently uncertain• It contains unpredictable complex systems

Punctuated equilibrium – relative quiescence followed by dynamic episodes

Path dependence– small changes cause large changes later

Complex Systems

• Complex Adaptive Systems

• Whole is greater than the sum of the parts

• Many parts

• Relationships “the missing link”

• Emergence and self-organisation

• Non-linear and dynamic patterns

• Difficult to predict outcomes & manage

(little things can make a big difference)

Complex, Adaptive Systems• Stock markets

• Road-traffic networks

• Evolutionary ecosystems

• Financial communication networks

• National economies

• Health-care delivery systems

• Communications networks

• Insurance industry

• D1 – drive to acquire

• D2 – drive to bond

• D3 – drive to learn

• D4 – drive to defend

Driven, Lawrence & Nohria, HBS, 2002

Mind Shift

• from objects

• to relationships between entities

• from control

• to enabling infrastructures

Complicated vs Complexity

Complication in business is the large variety of "things" in a business that need to be managed

The nature of complexity is the sometimes surprising consequences arising from relationships and interactions

Divisions

Products

Consumers

Interest Rates

Competitors

Regulators

Increasing returns

Substitute Products

Mergers, Acquisitions & Divestitures

Bankruptcy

Global Economic Interactions

Creating the future is not about….

– Extrapolation

– Linear relationship of cause & effect

– Rules-of-thumb

“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

- Wayne Gretzky

“Remember, 100% of the shots you don’t take, don’t go in.”

- Wayne Gretzky

Future of Higher Education in Australia, S. Welsman, Australian, 11 Jan, 2006

Collapse of

HigherEducation

2008 -

RegulatoryChange

Technology

Student needsGlobal

Competition

Demo-graphics

2008 - 2016

Variety of :

ProvidersAlliances

Course optionsContent

Delivery modes

Changing landscape

Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme & Medicare and shift in service providers (2006-2010)

Drivers impactingexisting

Medicare/PBS

Pharmacy and Nursing e.g.

rights to issuesick certificates

Online purchase via internet (pharmacy.direct)

Coles

Lack of Doctors and nurses

2010 -

Pharmaceuticallandscape

Shortage of doctorsIncrease in costs $1B

FTA

Alternativemedicines

Retail interestse.g. Chemist Warehouse

Coles

WoolworthsRebel sports

Alternative medicine Health Centres

Abbot Health System

Amazon .com

help lines (local & overseas)

Resources /newsletters

www.trendcentral.com

www.iconoculture.com

www.jcreport.com

www.trendwatching.com

www.agendainc.com

The Third Wave

– Toffler noted in 1980 that most of the third world countries will never experience the major infrastructure of cable and telephone lines as experienced in the modern fully-industrialized world. It will be bypassed completely.

Copper wires will NEVER be strung throughout the countries to deliver various communication services.

n-Logue’s Rural Connectivity Model

n-Logue Communications is setting up a sustainable network of wirelessly-connected Internet kiosks in rural villages throughout India. Through the kiosks, villagers are able to access a wide-range of relevant local language content and services aimed at enhancing the quality of life of rural Indians. To enable its rapid expansion, n-Logue has employed a three-tiered franchisee model that empowers local entrepreneurs to invest in and help run the network. As the company scales, there is enormous potential to leverage n-Logue's rural networks in ways that take advantage of both existing and new technologies in the areas of health, finance, agriculture, e-government and civil society empowerment. (Paul, 2004)

What’s Revolutionary Wealth all about?From the inside flap of the book Revolutionary Wealth

“Starting with the publication of their seminal best-seller, Future Shock, Alvin and Heidi Toffler have given millions of readers new ways to think about personal life in today’s high-speed world with its constantly changing, seemingly random impacts on our businesses, governments, families and daily lives.

Revolutionary Wealth is about how tomorrow’s wealth will be created, who will get it and how. But 21st Century wealth, according to the Tofflers, is not just about money, and cannot be understood in terms of industrial-age economics. Thus they write here about everything from education and childrearing to Hollywood and China, from everyday truth and lies to what they call our “Third Job” --- the unnoticed work we do without pay for some of the biggest corporations in our country.

They show the hidden connections between extreme sports, chocolate chip cookies, Linux software and the “surplus complexity” in our lives as society wobbles back and forth between depressing decadence and a hopeful post-decadence.

Blazing with fresh ideas, Revolutionary Wealth provides readers with powerful new tools for thinking about -- and preparing for -- their future.”

Key Concept: We are revolutionizing humanity’s links to the “deep fundamentals” of wealth

The business “fundamentals” investors hear so much about are really “superficials” – underneath them is a set of far more important “deep fundamentals” on which all the others depend.

These “deep fundamentals” are Time, Space and Knowledge – and they are all changing, with significant social, cultural, psychological and economic implications

Examples of changes in the Deep Fundamentals

• , Rearranging time– Business society, government are changing at different rates of speed,

creating stress as our rhythms are out-of-”sync.”– Productivity is less and less linked to time and synchronization– Humans are capable of measuring, exploring and controlling shorter and

shorter, as well as longer and longer expanses of time• Stretching space

– Monumental transfer of wealth and wealth creation across the world map, especially toward Asia

– Change in the criteria by which we value place or location– Emergence of cross-national regions– The creation of cyberspace– Globalization. Reglobalization? Deglobalization?– Unexplored wealth frontiers, including space

• Trusting knowledge– We are engaged in the fastest and most profound restructuring of

knowledge in history– We are making the wealth of individuals and nations alike more dependent

than ever on the growing global knowledge base

The “hidden” non-money economy is a substantial component of national and organizational wealth

• The non-money economy includes the immense value our organizations create each day that we traditionally haven’t measured, tracked, or paid for ... for example ...

– Prosumption: consumers have become part of the production process (e.g., digital camera home-printing)

– Non-paid labor (e.g., housewives, volunteers) – Knowledge assets (e.g., informal training, experience, expertise we provide

to our employees and customers)– Indirect impacts (e.g., Oprah Winfrey’s Book Club creates instant

bestsellers with no compensation for endorsements)– Deep fundamentals: taking advantage of changing relationships our

organizations have with space, time, knowledge (e.g., value of being first to market)

• The non-money economy is greater than most organ-izations understand, and it will become more valued in the future ... by those who know how to value it

Few organizations are realizing the full value of the substantial non-money wealth they create

• Organizations that do, and that work to ensure others realize it too, can have real competitive, positioning, and other advantages, including:

– Strengthen brand and deepen customer intimacy

– Create and attract new revenue-producing, partnership, and other opportunities that many don’t see

– Inspire the confidence of external funding sources and other stakeholders to provide your organization the resources you need to grow and thrive in your mission

• Examples include:– Progressive publishes rates of rival companies, using this “free good”

(knowledge) to create insurance prosumers – more of whom become Progressive customers each year

– NIH immunizes and makes health information available to millions, reducing the spread of disease and the time and money people spend on healthcare ... leveraging this non-money wealth helped NIH budget grow 113% over 8 years

Six steps to understanding and leveraging the non-money wealth your enterprise creates

• Setting the Context: groundwork on understanding your organization’s mission and activities in new ways

• Revolutionary Wealth Inventory: analyze the assets (tangible and intangible) you have and the activities you perform that represent and generate non-money wealth

• Impact of the “Deep Fundamentals”: assess your ability to leverage time, space, and knowledge to create wealth

• Valuating Your Revolutionary Wealth: monetize or otherwise assign a value to your organization’s most important non-money wealth assets and activities

• Identifying Options for Increasing Your Revolutionary Wealth: develop ideas for new products, services, and internal process changes that produce new value

• Telling the Story: strategic communications to convey to key audiences the value of your revolutionary wealth

Enterprises who want to create the future increasingly will be compelled to consider this question ...

How can we convincingly monetize (valuate) our non-money wealth and how can we increase the non-money wealth we’re able to generate in the

future?

Massive Data & Computing Trends

• More digital data in next five years, than the total data ever generated

• Massive quantities of data will be generated

– RFIDs (RFID + refrigerator: smart shopping list)

– Smart appliances– Home healthcare– Life caching

• 1 TB of disk space– > 200 DVDs, >200 thousand MP3s,

>200 thousand photos

• DVD, television tuning, DVR, gaming, music and video serving appliance

• Data mining and information retrieval for individuals becomes a necessity

• Tomorrow’s cellphone today’s desktop

• New Interfaces– Smart e-papers– Nanotech wallpaper for virtual conferencing– Goggles for AUGMENTED reality

• Email, IM, voice, video, and other modalities will be unified on one communication platform

Salton - Beyond™ Microwave

• Wireless Internet connection • Scanning wand• 4000 pre-programmed barcodes for time and power level• Time and day of week set automatically• Products + Info services

Credit: Isamu Sanada

Source: Gartner Group

Gartner’s Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies 2005

Gartner’s Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies 2006

Photo Tourism overview – Harnessing Collective Intelligence

Scene recreation

Scene recreation

Photo ExplorerPhoto

ExplorerInput photographse.g. from Flickr

Relative camera positions and orientations

Point cloud

Sparse correspondence

Future direction :Integrating GPS & other localization info

http://labs.live.com/photosynth/collectionHome.htm

Neogeographer = GPS + Maps

• Current Events• Favorite Places• Photo Albums• Traffic Conditions• Public Transit• Weather Reports• Housing & Real Estate

Listings• Ski Slopes• Wi-Fi Hotspots• eBay Auctions• Local Concerts and

Sporting Events• Sightseeing Guides

• Hotel Guides• Airfare Search• Fuel Prices• Find Local Schools, Churches, ...• Find Places to Shop• Find Restaurants• Employment Opportunities• Classified Ads• Walking, Hiking, and Bicycling

Trails• Crime Patterns• Blogrolls• Personal Histories• Personal Ads• Natural Disasters• TV and Movie Shooting Locations• UFO Sightings

WirelessCarrier

Turn-by-Turn Navigation

Social Networking

Fleet Management

Internet Mapping

Family Tracker

Local Search

Hybrid Navigation

Support of Personalised Products

Traditional

A B C D E

SureshSuresh JoeJoeMary Mary

Are we going to drown in data ? Wal-Mart Data Volume Estimate

Wal-Mart takes in $300bn per year

If Average price of item = $5, then there are 60bn item sales

If each item sale requires 20 events to track that item in the up to POS, then there are 1,200bn events

If there are 100 bytes per event, then this is 120,000Gb or 120Tb

RFIDIntegration

Hub atCentral

Data Center

Edge-Server at

StoresReader

Case /Pallet

Readers

Edge-server“Polling”

15

2 / sec

150

2 / sec

Item

Total “Reads”at Edge-server

Example Number of Stores

30

1,800

300

1,800

- Estimation of Events per Store -

App Level Events(ALE) per Reader

10/hour 100/hour

ALE Events at Hub 75/ sec

7,500/ sec

- Typical RFID Event Network -

Data Streaming

&

Complex Event Processing

10

11

1

0

1

0

0

1

1

The Business Problem-

Complex Event Processing

Identifying opportunities and threats, and making immediate decisions

– Processing large volumes of real-time & historical data

– Complex constantly shifting criteria

– Without the high cost of custom solutions

The Technical Challenge

• Building and managing sophisticated applications that:

– Process 10,000-1,000,000 messages/second

– Support latency measured in millisecond

– Are easy to develop, change, and continuously operate

commodities

goods

services

experiences

The Experience Economy Pine & Gilmore, 1999

The marketing of experiences - San Marco, Venezia

Supply of music !

This docket highlights an AUD100 experience sipping coffee,drinking orange juice and mineral water at the height of summer in San Marco Square. Wow what an experience !The music is what makes it.

The Creative Class

“Experiences are replacing goods and services because they stimulate our creative faculties and enhance our creative capacities. This active, experiential lifestyle is spreading and becoming more prevalent in society…”

Richard Florida - The Rise of the Creative Class (p.168)

What are experiences ?

• Your customers need to experience what you are trying to sell them through emotion ie. Doing,,feeling and interacting

• To provide an experience you need to do something beyond presenting info that makes the event memorable and personable that engages in a personal way

• Entertainment is only one aspect of an experience.

What’s this all about ?• Bridging what is achievable in the virtual world with the

real world.

• Harnessing the ability and availability of talent anytime and anywhere

• Tectonic changes in demographics

• Globalisation 3.0

• Anyone submits a digital design for a tee-shirt to be made in the real world.

• This creates a large work force without overheads

• What isn’t voted upon does not get made

• Also, check out www.elance.com

Second life (SL)

a Massively Multiplayer Virtual World (M3VW) with over 70,000 users leading a second life carrying out business, learning and doing things. Key characteristics of SL:

• Customise avatars to create a unique visual identity

• ~$2 million USD in transactions a month

• All content user created

• Tools to create anything imaginable

• Scripting (programming) environment to create complex simulations

• Enhance emotional interaction with real-world social cues and body language

Multimaker

The virtual world

• ~ $1B worldwide market for virtual goods

• Players spend 20 hours+ per week

• Users interest in “doing”

• Ideal environments for mass-customization

Intellectual property rights

• Players rather residents:

– own their creations

– Retain their Intellectual Property rights to their creations

– Residents may buy and sell Linden $ for real world $

– Residents may license their creations back into the real world

Is SL really a game ?

– End goal appears to be what users create

– All items, games, etc. inside the world are user created

– Second Life is the first massively multiplayer platform to give users copyright privileges to what they create

Caution !

“Children never put off till tomorrow what will keep them from going to bed tonight”

ADVERTISING AGE