w5s7-mobility of tomorrow

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Sustainable Mobility

Technical and environmental challenges for the automotive sector

Week 5 – Session 7 – Mobility of tomorrow

Sidney Lambert-Lallite



W5 – S7 – Mobility of tomorrow p. 2

© IFPEN / IFP School 2014

This part is dedicated to review what transport could look like in the future; how the many challenges can be

overcome and what are the solutions already (or soon to be) available in the transport sector.

We will discuss the need to decarbonize our mobility, how to improve energy efficiency of vehicles, but also

the role of city planning and changes in our mobility habits to help us make mobility more sustainable.

Challenges aheadWhat are the five main challenges hanging over the transport sector ?

1. Greenhouse gases

Notably CO2 emissions released in the atmosphere through gasoline or diesel oil combustion. The

transport sector accounts for 14% of global man made greenhouse gases emissions and thus needs

to be part of the solution.

2. Fuel availability and cost

Gasoline and diesel oil prices in the United States have grown by approximately 150% in the last

decade. In France, the average household dedicates 10 to 15% of its revenue to automobile. The

French automobile budget has grown by 64% since 1990.3. Local air pollution

When reaching up to certain levels, exhausts from fuel combustion can be a threat for public health.

4. Traffic congestion

The average driver lost 8 working days in traffic congestion in 2012 according to Tomtom’s Traffic

index.

5. Urban parking

As 2 out of 3 human beings – and potential car users – will live in a city by the middle of this century.

Space availability and time spent to find a parking spot will be a major issue.

The Kaya equation for transport

These challenges can be summarized through a very simple equation, derived from the Kaya equation. YoichiKaya, a Japanese economist, gave its name to an equation that showed all the factors influencing the growth

of greenhouse gases emissions. Here, we will try to apply this equation to the transport sector.

“T-CO2” is the emissions from all vehicles

“T-energy” stands for the energy consumed in the transport sector

“kilometers” is the distance travelled by all vehicles

“vehicles” is the total number of vehicles on the road

In concrete words, the emissions from the transport sector can be viewed as the product of 4 factors:

1.

The carbon intensity of energy

2. The energy intensity per kilometer

3. The average distance travelled by each vehicle

4.

And the global fleet of vehicles in the world.





If we need to divide our emissions by 3 before 2050, as most climate scientists tell us, we will have to divide

by 3 at least one of these four factors. The others remaining constant. These four factors can be seen as the

main levies we have to act on to drive our transport system onto a more sustainable pathway.

Decarbonizing transportIndeed, the term T-CO2 over T-energy, or the carbon intensity of energy used to fuel our cars, has been

viewed in details in previous sessions. As 97% of the transport sector still rely on oil, this advocates for a

profound fuel switch towards hybrid cars, biofuels or battery electric vehicles.

IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013

But electric vehicles are as “clean” as the electricity mix used to power the cars. For instance, an electric

vehicle powered with coal-based electricity will lead to a 40% increase of well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in

comparison with average emission level of cars sold in the European Union last year. For natural gas based

electricity it will only reduce emissions by 15%.

The issue is that coal account for 41% of the global electricity mix, natural gas for 22% and oil for 5%; and

that the power sector represent one quarter of man-made greenhouse gases emissions.Based on this type of electricity mix, electrifying all personal vehicles will have no major impact on global

carbon dioxide emissions. Decarbonizing mobility first needs a decarbonization of the energy mix.

Improving energy efficiency of vehicles

The second term of the equation, the energy intensity per kilometer, is a good way to describe overall

energy efficiency of a vehicle. Improving on the one hand the energy content of existing fuels and on the

other hand the efficiency of motors will help us reduce fuel consumption. Fuel efficiency of vehicles have

greatly improved in recent years, as more and more stringent standards are set. China for instance, aims at

improving fuel efficiency of vehicles by more than 40% between 2012 and 2020.





Reduction in weight, improved aerodynamics and reduced rolling resistance of cars can help decrease

further the fuel consumption of vehicles. Eco-driving, where drivers adapt their driving habits to optimize

engine performances can help reduce fuel consumption by 10 to 15%.

Smart city planning & sustainable lifestyles

The third term of the equation, the average distance travelled by vehicle, is a matter of lifestyles and city

planning.

Reducing the average distance

Increasing urban density

Historically, human settlements began with people clustered around a well, and the size of that settlement

was roughly the distance one could walk with a pot of water on its head. That remained unchanged for

thousands of years. Then, with industrialization, everything started to become centralized. Dirty factories

were moved to the outskirts of cities; production was centralized in assembly plants; learning at school;shopping in huge malls… And cars, roads, and parking lots were built to connect these areas. This is a pattern

often seen in Northern American cities: it is what we call “urban sprawling”. Urban density has a great

impact on energy consumption. As a city extends its surface, we observe an increase in demand for mobility,

and based on our current mobility system, it will inevitably increase energy consumption.

Figure 4: Newman and Kenworthy (1989), adapted from Atlas environnement Le Monde diplomatique (2007)

By 2050, at least 2 billion additional people will leave in cities; whether these cities already exist or not. The

urban planning model chosen will have a great impact on energy consumption and emissions.

Telecommuting Telecommuting can also be a good way to reduce our need of mobility. Telecommuting, or telework, can be

defined as a work arrangement in which employees do not commute to a central place of work. They can

work from home, from public libraries, from shared offices close from where they live. In our societies where

more and more interactions are based on services, do we really need to take our car every day to go to

work?





The development of such a work arrangement reduce the need for mobility, the kilometers traveled, hence

transport CO2 emissions. But telework has also proven benefits on working time and productivity. A study

conducted by the Danish Technological Institute shows that telecommuting, up to 50% of global working

time, increases labor productivity.

Mobility-sharingThe last term of the equation, the number of vehicles available; we already know many levies to optimize

our mobility system.

The question is: what are we ultimately looking for in a car? Is it the possession, or is it the service of

mobility? In the middle of the 20th

century, owning a car was a sign of wealth and social success. But today,

more and more people would rather purchase a service of mobility than a car.

We need to keep in mind that, on average, a car is on the road only 5% of the time.

Carpooling and car-sharing services have boomed in recent years as an answer to this problem. It has made

possible to use more efficiently an already existing network: the road!

Carpooling can be defined as a sharing of car journey, so that more than one person travels in a car. The

owner of the car is generally one of the traveler.

This is different from car-sharing in which a fleet of cars is jointly-owned by the users. Carpooling exploits

the cars already owned by people, car-sharing exploits cars bought precisely for the car-sharing group.

Carpoolers mutualize the travel cost, energy consumption and emissions. Car-sharers mutualize the fixed

costs of the vehicle (purchase of the car, insurance, maintenance,…).

Last but not least: efficient, available, affordable and clean public transport is crucial for reducing the energy

per capita required for transport.

When choosing their means of transportation, people will compare the cost, availability, reliability and

comfort of each system. These are all the factors that will convince them to shift from privately owned and

privately used cars, towards a more collective and sustainable mobility system.

In the end, these are all the levies we can act on to reduce emissions while satisfying our growing needs of

mobility.

Conclusion : Tackling multiple challengesThe good news is: all the solutions presented before have multiple benefits and contribute to tackle these

challenges as well.

If the benefit is not certain for global emissions, electric vehicles definitely have a positive impact over local

air pollution, in part caused by diesel exhausts particulates.

Telecommuting and shared-mobility help reduce the number of vehicles on the road, hence reducing traffic

congestion and need of parking infrastructure.

Smart urban design and availability of efficient collective modes of transportation in cities also reduce traffic,

need of parking, local pollution, and fuel consumption.

People respond to incentives (whether based on cost, on time or comfort): no one likes to be caught intraffic, to spend time looking for a parking spot, to spend thousands of euros for fueling its car.

We know the solutions, some are already here, technically available and affordable. And they can benefit to

each of us and to society as a whole. Incentives need to be properly implemented to help our society trigger

this shift from an individual and outdated transport system into a more collective, more efficient and more

sustainable mobility pathway.





Finally, I would like to conclude with the role of Internet and new communication technologies as key

elements for supporting this shift.

New mobile applications are developed every day to help people find an available parking spot, to calculate

the fastest route for a journey, to book a car shared by multiple users or for connecting carpoolers.It can also help you change your driving habits and help you drive in a more energy efficient way (e.g. GECO).

w5s7-mobility of tomorrow

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