Greenhouse Amplification Greenhouse Amplification of the Power of the Sun:of the Power of the Sun:

An Earth bound problem with ImpactsAn Earth bound problem with Impacts“Visible” from Space“Visible” from Space

W. Richard PeltierW. Richard Peltier

Department of PhysicsDepartment of Physics

University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto

The Active Sun and the Amplification of The Active Sun and the Amplification of its Power by the Greenhouse Effectits Power by the Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O

Greenhouse Gas Concentration Measurements Greenhouse Gas Concentration Measurements from Antarctic Ice-Cores Confirm the Anomalous from Antarctic Ice-Cores Confirm the Anomalous

Nature of Present Trace Gas ConditionsNature of Present Trace Gas Conditions

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Last 4 inter-glacials The current (Holocene) inter-glacial

Earth at the Last Maximum of Earth at the Last Maximum of Glaciation 21,000 Years AgoGlaciation 21,000 Years Ago

Since the onset of industrialization, greenhouse gas Since the onset of industrialization, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have been increasing at an concentrations in the atmosphere have been increasing at an

unprecedented rate.unprecedented rate.Over the period since Last Glacial Maximum Individual GHG Strengths

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Holocene

Current, 2009,atmospheric CO2concentration is~388 ppmv, whichis to be comparedto the pre-industriallevel of ~280ppmv, an increase of ~36% over the past~160 years

That global warming would be caused by increasing CO2levels was predicted by the Nobel chemist Arrhenius~1896

An early (TAR) “hockey stick”

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The mean surface temperature since the mid-20The mean surface temperature since the mid-20thth century has century has continued to increase above that which existed at any time continued to increase above that which existed at any time

during the past 1300 yearsduring the past 1300 years

The IPCC Future Scenarios

Since the beginning of northern hemisphere industrialization the increase has been ~0.8 Deg.

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The Observed Warming is Characterized by High The Observed Warming is Characterized by High Latitude Northern Hemisphere AmplificationLatitude Northern Hemisphere Amplification

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The GRACE Satellites: Gravity field time The GRACE Satellites: Gravity field time dependence and climatedependence and climate

Land Ice in the Polar Regions: Sensitive Land Ice in the Polar Regions: Sensitive

indicators of greenhouse amplificationindicators of greenhouse amplification

Antarctica Greenland Alaska and the Yukon

The GRACE signal (a) and that expected due to the The GRACE signal (a) and that expected due to the response of planetary shape to the elimination of the response of planetary shape to the elimination of the

ice-age ice sheet that once covered Canada(b)ice-age ice sheet that once covered Canada(b)

= (a) – (b)

Estimating mass loss and global sea level Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise: Alaska and Greenlandrise: Alaska and Greenland

Corrected forhydrology

Corrected for GIA

~.15 mm/yr in Global sea level rise

~.62 mm/yr inGlobal sea level rise

Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise: Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise: AntarcticaAntarctica

CSR GFZ

GIA

CSR-GIA GFZ-GIA

~.32 mm/yr inglobal sea levelrise

~.36 mm/yr inGlobal sea level rise

Remember, the Greenhouse effect is enhanced Remember, the Greenhouse effect is enhanced as a consequence of our carbon based economyas a consequence of our carbon based economy

Greenhouse Gases

To Summarize Re: Climate ChangeTo Summarize Re: Climate Change

Since start of Industrial Revolution, carbon Since start of Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide (COdioxide (CO22) in the atmosphere has risen from ) in the atmosphere has risen from 277 parts per million to 387 parts per million277 parts per million to 387 parts per million

Burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas – Burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas – emits 7.5 billion tons of carbon each year emits 7.5 billion tons of carbon each year

Deforestation emits 1.5 billion tons each yearDeforestation emits 1.5 billion tons each year Electricity generation and transportation are the Electricity generation and transportation are the

largest sources of COlargest sources of CO22 emissions, with coal-fired emissions, with coal-fired power plants the biggest culpritpower plants the biggest culprit

As COAs CO22 accumulates, global temperature rises accumulates, global temperature rises

Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

Climate ChangeClimate Change

The earth has warmed an average 0.6The earth has warmed an average 0.6°C°C (1.0(1.0°F°F) since 1970) since 1970

Rising temperatures fuel stronger storms Rising temperatures fuel stronger storms and increase crop-withering heat wavesand increase crop-withering heat waves

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects earth’s average Change (IPCC) projects earth’s average temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4°C°C (2.0 - 11.5(2.0 - 11.5°F°F) during this century) during this century

Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz

Ice MeltingIce Melting

Losing our Reservoirs in the SkyLosing our Reservoirs in the Sky Mountain glaciers rapidly disappearing worldwideMountain glaciers rapidly disappearing worldwide Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers

feed the major rivers of Asia during the dry feed the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, providing critical irrigation water for season, providing critical irrigation water for agricultureagriculture

If melting continues at current rates, rivers like the If melting continues at current rates, rivers like the Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could become seasonal, devastating wheat and rice become seasonal, devastating wheat and rice harvestsharvests

Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

Ice MeltingIce MeltingRising SeasRising Seas

Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are melting at accelerating ratessheets are melting at accelerating rates

Together hold enough water to raise sea level Together hold enough water to raise sea level 12 meters (39 feet)12 meters (39 feet)

A 10 meter rise in sea level today would A 10 meter rise in sea level today would inundate coastal areas home to more than inundate coastal areas home to more than 600 million people600 million people

The risk is that climate change could spiral out of control, making it impossible to arrest trends such as rising temperatures, ice melting, and rising seas, threatening food security and creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees.

Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

The Answer: De-carbonize by both The Answer: De-carbonize by both --Harnessing the Wind --Harnessing the Wind

One Centerpiece of a new One Centerpiece of a new energy economyenergy economy

Abundant Abundant –– North Dakota, North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas alone Kansas, and Texas alone could satisfy U.S. energy could satisfy U.S. energy needsneeds

Widespread Widespread – – in every in every countrycountry

Increasingly inexpensiveIncreasingly inexpensive A plausible goal: 3 million A plausible goal: 3 million

MW of installed capacity MW of installed capacity worldwide by 2020?worldwide by 2020?

Would Need 1.5 million 2-Would Need 1.5 million 2-MW turbines installed by MW turbines installed by 20202020

Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Joe Gough

And De-carbonize by-- Harnessing And De-carbonize by-- Harnessing The Power of the SunThe Power of the Sun

Technologies include Technologies include photovoltaics (PV), solar photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal power plants, thermal power plants, solar hot water and space solar hot water and space heatersheaters

Sunlight hitting the earth Sunlight hitting the earth in 1 hour could power in 1 hour could power global economy for 1 yearglobal economy for 1 year

New Economy goal: Solar New Economy goal: Solar heating, electricity each heating, electricity each exceed 1 million MW exceed 1 million MW installed capacity installed capacity

Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / katyakatya

World Electricity Generation by Source in 2006 World Electricity Generation by Source in 2006 and in one envisioned NEW Economyand in one envisioned NEW Economy

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2050??

The End