Secretary Dave Hardy Governor Jim Justice

W E S T V I R G I N I A

DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE

Fiscal Forecast – FY 2019

DEPUTY REVENUE SECRETARY MARK B. MUCHOW

Senate Finance Committee January 11, 2018

Current West Virginia Fiscal Picture

• Economy: Growth Mode Since Second Half of CY2016 – Narrow Recovery Base– 12-month trailing trend value of foreign exports up 52% since October 2016

– Coal production up 15% over last year

– Natural gas prices up roughly 60% compared to 2016 & Volumes Increase

– Unemployment rates are down from 6% to 4.6%

– Employment growth anemic with private sector gain of just 0.6% (November 2017 compared with November 2016)

• Slowly improving employment and wage growth = modest gains in major taxes

• General Revenue Fund collection increases lower than long-term average

• Lottery revenues will fall below prior year receipts, but still exceed estimate

• State Road Fund collections will rise by 20% due to higher fees and taxes

• Overall local government tax revenues will continue to rise– Local municipal sales tax revenues may exceed $80 million

– Some counties experiencing significant revenue declines due to heavy property tax base reliance on natural resource industry

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E2

U.S. Economy: IHS ForecastIHS-Markit Baseline: November 2017

Economic Variable 2017 2018 2019

Real GDP 2.2% 2.5% 2.2%

CPI 2.1% 1.9% 2.1%

Consumption 2.7% 2.5% 2.2%

Industrial Production 1.7% 2.5% 2.3%

Payroll Employment 1.5% 1.3% 1.0%

Personal Income 3.1% 3.9% 4.8%

Real Disposable Income 1.3% 2.3% 3.0%

Domestic Corporate Profits 5.3% 13.9% 8.7%

10-Year Treasury Note 2.35% 2.81% 3.31%

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E3

Real Gross Domestic Product Growth in U.S.Recovery in 2013-2021

November 2017 Forecast – IHS

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Real GDP

IHS Estimate

IHS-Pessimistic

IHS-Optimistic

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E4

Federal Fiscal Belt LoosensSource: CBO Monthly Budget Review, October-December 2017 & U.S. Treasury & OMB

Revenues Through December

$ Billions PercentSource Revenue ChangeInd. Income $ 385 9.0Corp. Income 66 -13.5Social Insurance 259 2.9Other 60 0.4

Total 770 3.9

Year-End Federal Budget DeficitsFY2007: $ 160.7 BillionFY2008: $ 458.6 BillionFY2009: $1,412.7 BillionFY2010: $1,294.4 BillionFY2011: $1,299.6 BillionFY2012: $1,087.0 BillionFY2013: $ 679.5 BillionFY2014: $ 484.6 BillionFY2015: $ 438.5 BillionFY2016: $ 584.7 BillionFY2017 Preliminary: $ 665.7 BillionFY2018 Estimates: $ 589.5 Billion

Outlays Through December

$ Billions PercentCategory Outlays ChangeDefense $ 161 + 7.9SS Benefits 238 + 3.4Medicare 126 + 1.0Medicaid 95 - 1.7Other 292 + 6.9Subtotal 911 + 4.1

Debt Interest 87 + 14.7

Total 998 + 5.1

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E5

2016-2020: U.S. Employment Projected to Rise by 4.6%Estimates by HIS-Markit - U.S. Economic Baseline Forecast November 2017

134.04

138.00

130.35

134.17

138.94

144.31

150.98

120.00

125.00

130.00

135.00

140.00

145.00

150.00

155.00

160.00

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Mill

ion

sNonfarm Payroll Employment

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E6

2016-2020: WV Employment Projected to Rise by 1.2%Estimates by HIS-Markit - U.S. Regional Service December 2017 Long Term

746.13

762.85

745.80

765.15

746.81

757.34

700.00

710.00

720.00

730.00

740.00

750.00

760.00

770.00

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Tho

usa

nd

s

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E7

WV Payroll Employment Growing AgainPrivate Sector Up 3,500 Jobs (0.6%) Between Nov 2016 & Nov 2017

3,700 in Education & Health Services; 2,300 in Construction; 900 in Mining

7.6%

4.5%

2.8%

1.6%0.7%

-0.8% -1.1%

-2.4% -6.0%-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Nov 2016-Nov 2017

Nov 2016-Nov 2017

8W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

Minor Improvement in Labor Force Participation Rates in 2016Following Trough in 2015

Source: U.S. Burau of Labor Statistics

1976, 51.1 1986, 51.4

1996, 55.3

2001, 56.7

2006, 56.0

2016, 53.2

1976, 61.6

1986, 65.3 1996, 66.82000, 67.1

2006, 66.2

2016, 62.8

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Share of Non-institutional Population in Workforce

WV U.S.

9W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

WV Wage Growth Recovery UnderwayQuarterly Wage & Salary Income Growth Trend -West Virginia & U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisSeasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14

Q1

14

Q3

15

Q1

15

Q3

16

Q1

16

Q3

17

Q1

17

Q3

WV Wage & Salary U.S. Wage & Salary

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E10

Distribution of Nonfarm Earnings: 2016Mining, Health Care & Government Play Bigger Role In WV

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

17%

11%

9%10%7%

6%6%

5%

4%4%

1%20%

United States

Government Health Care/Social Assistance

Manufacturing Professional/Technical Service

Finance & Insurance Retail Trade

Construction Wholesale Trade

Administrative & Waste Management Informaiton Services

Mining Other

22%

16%

8%6%

3%

7%6%

4%

4%2%

5%17%

West Virginia

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E11

Contribution to Growth in Nonfarm Earnings 2006-2016

Average Annual Growth 1.6% in WV versus 2.8% U.S. [-2.9% for WV Mining Sector]

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

12

12-Month Trailing Trend Value of Foreign Non-Manufacturing Good Exports

Total Exports Up 52% Since October 2016; Non-Manufacturing Good Exports Up 214%

Jan-16, $1,656.8

Oct-16, $1,100.4

Nov-17, $3,451.0

$-

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17

$ Millions

Non-Mfg Goods

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

Longer Term 12-Month Trailing TrendSource: U.S. Census Bureau

Dec-04, $442.2

Dec-08, $2,201.8

Dec-12, $7,497.8

Oct-16, $1,100.4

Nov-17, $3,451.0

$-

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

$8,000.0

Value of WV Non-Manufacturing Good Exports ($ Millions)

Value

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E14

12-Month Trailing Trend Value of Foreign Manufacturing Good Exports

Total Exports Up 52% Since October 2016; Manufacturing Good Exports Up 2%

Feb-14, $3,732.1

Feb-15, $4,141.8

Sep-16, $3,445.6

Nov-17, $3,494.6

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

$4,500.0

$5,000.0

Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17

$ Millions

Mfg Goods

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E15

West Virginia Electric Power Generation:Down 2.7% YTD in 2017 & 22% Below 2007 (Oct)

Source: U.S. DOE, Energy Information Administration

93,933

70,783

79,000 75,863 75,626

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Net Generation

Tho

usa

nd

Me

gaw

att-

ho

urs

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E16

Natural Gas Production by State 2006-2016U.S. Production up 3.5% per year average in 2011-2016WV Production Up 28.4% per year average in 2011-2016

Source: U.S. Department of Energy & WV DEP

512

1,015

1,440

274

1,311

2,257 3,259

4,258

4,813 5,313

264 394 540

742

1,067

1,319

1,375

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million MCF

OH

PA

WV

17W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

Total General Revenue Fund RevenuesAverage Annual Growth: 7.2% 2004-2008; 0.08% 2008-2017;

Projected Average Annual Growth: 3.7% 2017-2023; Total Growth 2007-2017 = 7.4%

$3,082.9

$3,928.3$4,066.7

$4,225.1

$4,356.2 $5,062.7

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

$ M

illio

ns

Fiscal Year

Net Collections

General Fund Special Funds Gap Fill

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E18

West Virginia Personal Income28% Growth Between 2007 and 2017

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic AnalysisForecast- IHS Markit- U.S. Regional Service December 2017 Long-Term

$45.0 $46.5$48.4

$51.9$53.8

$57.6 $58.0 $59.5$63.1 $64.6 $64.2

$66.0 $67.3 $67.1 $68.7$71.2

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$80.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E19

WV Per Capita Personal Income Growth

20

WV Per Capita Income Ratio to U.S. Rises from 74.5% in 2006 to 75.4% in 2016

Annual growth has averaged 3% per year ($38,144 in 2016)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

34.7%

31.6% 31.4%30.0% 29.8%

26.4% 26.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

PA WV OH U.S. KY MD VA

Per Capita Personal Income Growth-Past 10 Years

Growth 2006-2016

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

Personal Income TaxAverage Annual Growth: 9.1% 2004-2009; 1.4% 2009-2017

Projected Average Annual Growth: 4.0% 2017-2023

$1,840.1

$1,803.3$1,813.9

$1,860.0

$2,303.0

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

$ M

illio

ns

Fiscal Year

Personal Income Tax Collections

General Fund Special Funds

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E21

Consumer Sales and Use TaxAverage Annual Growth: 3.5% 2004-2007; 0.9% 2007-2017

Projected Average Annual Growth: 2.8% 2017-2023

$1,021.4

$1,125.8 $1,216.0 $1,228.2$1,231.0

$1,222.3

$1,259.0

$1,488.6

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

$ M

illio

ns

Fiscal Year

Consumer Sales & Use Tax Collections

General Fund Special Funds

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E22

Per Capita Personal Consumption Expenditures 2016Average Citizen’s Consumption of Health Care 11% Higher in WV

Growth in WV: 2.5% [36% Health Care]; Growth in U.S.: 4.0% [21% Health Care] Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

7%2%

18%

17%

56%

United States: $39,664

Food Energy Housing

Health Care Other

8%3%

14%

22%

53%

West Virginia: $34,418

Food Energy Housing

Health Care Other

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E23

Severance TaxAverage Annual Growth: 11.1% 2004-2012; -0.2% 2007-2017

Projected Average Annual Growth: 5.0% 2017-2023

$184.4

$314.7

$467.9

$414.2

$237.5

$321.0

$361.0 $437.7

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

$ M

illio

ns

Fiscal Year

State Severance Tax Collections

General Fund Special Funds Gap Fill

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E24

Regular Severance Tax (July 2007-Present)Trailing 12 Month Trend

$ Millions

$329.6

$490.7

$409.7

Feb-15, $501.9

Dec-16, $245.4

Dec-17, $384.3

$220.0

$270.0

$320.0

$370.0

$420.0

$470.0

$520.0

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

Severance Tax

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E25

State Severance Tax Collection TrendsRegular Tax on Gross Receipts Net of Local Tax Distributions

$421

$160

$277

$37

$191

$47

$22

$210 $100

$33

$215

$137

$32

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Coal Natural Gas Oil/Other

$ Millions

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 Est

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E26

Natural Gas Prices: Variation SignificantSource: Natural Gas Intelligence Daily (Trade Date) Average Natural Gas Prices

Dominion South, 9/29/16, $0.66

Dominion South, 43020, $0.32

Dominion South, 12/27/17, $2.34

Henry Hub, 9/29/16, $2.95

Henry Hub, 43020, $2.91

Henry Hub, 1/3/18, $6.88

$(0.50)

$0.50

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

12

/1/1

5

1/1

/16

2/1

/16

3/1

/16

4/1

/16

5/1

/16

6/1

/16

7/1

/16

8/1

/16

9/1

/16

10

/1/1

6

11

/1/1

6

12

/1/1

6

1/1

/17

2/1

/17

3/1

/17

4/1

/17

5/1

/17

6/1

/17

7/1

/17

8/1

/17

9/1

/17

10

/1/1

7

11

/1/1

7

12

/1/1

7

1/1

/18

$/ Million Btu

Dominion South Henry Hub

27W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

Corporation Net Income TaxAverage Annual Growth: 21.9% 2004-2008; -10.9% 2007-2017

Projected Average Annual Growth: 10.8% 2017-2023

$181.5

$347.6

$388.2

$188.1$186.1

$143.6

$116.3

$109.0

$215.1

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

$350.0

$400.0

$450.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

$ M

illio

ns

Fiscal Year

Corporation Net Income Tax Collections

General Fund Special Funds

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E28

Business and Occupation TaxAverage Annual Growth: 0.6% 2004-2007; -4.7% 2007-2017

Projected Average Annual Growth: 1.4% 2017-2023

$177.4 $180.7

$119.2

$111.9

$114.5 $122.0

$0.0

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

$140.0

$160.0

$180.0

$200.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

$ M

illio

ns

Fiscal Year

B&O Tax Collections

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E29

Tobacco Products Tax Collection Trends2008-2016: -1.7%/Year;

Rate from $0.55 to $1.20 as of July 1, 2016; OTP from 7% to 12%

Jul-08, $116.5

May-16, $99.1

Jul-17, $198.2

Dec-17, $182.0

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

Jun

-08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun

-09

Oct

-09

Feb

-10

Jun

-10

Oct

-10

Feb

-11

Jun

-11

Oct

-11

Feb

-12

Jun

-12

Oct

-12

Feb

-13

Jun

-13

Oct

-13

Feb

-14

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Feb

-15

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jun

-17

Oct

-17

$ Millions – 12-Month Trailing Trend

Tobacco Tax

30W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

COMPARATIVE TAX RATESAs of January 1, 2018

* Additional local taxes may apply

Ohio

6.5%-8.0% Sales

4.997% PIT*0.26% GRT-CAT

$0.2801 Gasoline

$1.60 Cigarettes

Pennsylvania

6.0% Sales*

3.07% PIT*9.99% CNIT

$0.576 Gasoline

$2.60 Cigarettes

West Virginia

6.0% Sales*6.5% PIT

6.5% CNIT

$0.357 Gasoline

$1.20 Cigarettes

Virginia

5.3%-6.0% Sales

5.75% PIT

6.0% CNIT

$0.224 Gasoline

$0.300 Cigarettes*

Kentucky

6.0% Sales

6.0% PIT*6.0% CNIT w AMT

$0.260 Gasoline

$0.601 Cigarettes

Maryland

6.0%++ Sales

7.0%-8.95% PIT

8.25% CNIT

$0.338 Gasoline

$2.00 Cigarettes

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E31

32W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E

FY2017-2018 General Revenue Fund as of December 31, 2017

$ Millions $ Millions $ Millions $ Millions $ Millions

YTD YTD YTD ACTUAL CHANGE

COMPONENT ESTIMATE ACTUAL DIFFERENCE YTD FY16-17 PERCENT CHANGE

Consumer Sales Tax 613.500$ 593.364$ (20.136)$ 590.970$ 0.4% 2.394$

Personal Income Tax 850.220$ 883.188$ 32.968$ 836.444$ 5.6% 46.744$

Business & Occupation Tax 53.500$ 48.961$ (4.539)$ 48.515$ 0.9% 0.447$

Severance Tax 155.900$ 138.350$ (17.550)$ 94.484$ 46.4% 43.866$

Corporate Taxes 53.300$ 68.553$ 15.253$ 53.766$ 27.5% 14.788$

Insurance Premium Tax 58.900$ 58.944$ 0.044$ 58.405$ 0.9% 0.539$

Tobacco Products Tax 95.300$ 91.799$ (3.501)$ 104.473$ -12.1% (12.675)$

Interest Income 7.300$ 3.512$ (3.788)$ 1.938$ 81.2% 1.574$

Lottery Transfers 26.142$ 24.195$ (1.947)$ 26.142$ -7.4% (1.947)$

All Other 51.868$ 57.731$ 5.863$ 47.325$ 22.0% 10.406$

TOTAL 1,965.930$ 1,968.597$ 2.667$ 1,862.462$ 5.7% 106.135$

FY2017-2018 State Road Fund as of December 31, 2017

YTD YTD YTD ACTUAL CHANGE

COMPONENT ESTIMATE ACTUAL DIFFERENCE YTD FY16-17 PERCENT CHANGE

Motor Fuel Excise Tax 203.700$ 206.925$ 3.225$ 191.605$ 8.0% 15.319$

Registration Fees 54.969$ 71.499$ 16.530$ 39.964$ 78.9% 31.536$

Sales (Privilege) Tax 116.163$ 106.012$ (10.151)$ 106.279$ -0.3% (0.267)$

Highway Litter Control 0.765$ 0.780$ 0.015$ 0.723$ 7.9% 0.057$

TOTAL 375.597$ 385.216$ 9.619$ 338.571$ 13.8% 46.645$

Estimate VS Actual – Error RateExcludes Gap Fill Revenues

Estimates generally as of November prior to start of July-June Fiscal Year

Year Receipts Estimate ErrorFY17 $4,066,716 $4,187,419 - 2.9%FY16 3,879.647 4,305.776 - 9.9%FY15 4,196.310 4,253.951 - 1.4%FY14 4,047.105 4,136.001 - 2.1%FY13 4,059.119 4,149.751 - 2.2%FY12 4,103.305 4,015.621 2.2%FY11 4,063.786 3,741.680 8.6%FY10 3,758.372 3,788.000 - 0.8%FY09 3,901.552 3,902.733 - 0.0%FY08 3,928.288 3,819.000 2.9%FY07 3,752.722 3,657.100 2.6%FY06 3,661.402 3,256.900 12.4%FY05 3,404.639 3,071.756 10.8%FY04 3,082.941 3,041.375 1.4%FY03 2,916.961 2,930.000 -0.4%FY02 2,824.117 2,800.100 0.9%FY01 2,718.379 2,717.350 0.0%FY00 2,638.496 2,664.159 -1.0%FY99 2,617.868 2,592.900 1.0%FY98 2,503.343 2,498.500 0.2%

W E S T V I R G I N I A D E P A R T M E N T O F R E V E N U E33

FY2019 Forecast Versus Official FY2018 Estimates

Forecast of 3.1% Growth$ Millions

Tax Source FY2018 FY2019 ChangePersonal Income: $1,860.000 1,961.000 101.000Sales & Use: 1,259.000 1,288.500 29.500Severance: 361.000 361.700 0.700Corp Income: 109.000 142.100 33.100B&O: 114.500 117.500 3.000Tobacco Excise: 194.000 179.700 ( 14.300)Insurance Premium: 121.100 123.500 2.400Lottery-GRF: 65.000 65.000 0 All Other: 141.450 117.170 ( 24.280)

Total General $4,225.050 $4,356.170 $131.120

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2018-2019 Fiscal Outlook Summary

• West Virginia economy continues growing – lead by energy

• Some rebound in non-energy sectors (construction & manufacturing ?)

• Natural gas prices and production slowly rise pending completion of major infrastructure pipeline projects; Stability for coal

• Increased road construction helps stimulate additional employment growth and tax collection growth

• Federal fiscal stimulus in the form of tax rate reductions and capital expensing stimulate additional short-term economic growth in 2018

• Demographic factors continue to act as brake on growth in State

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Questions?

W E S T V I R G I N I A

DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE

Mark B. Muchow | Deputy Secretary of Revenue | 304-558-8730 | Mark.B.Muchow@wv.gov36