vulnerability to disasters

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Vulnerability Analysis David Alexander University College London

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Page 1: Vulnerability to Disasters

VulnerabilityAnalysis

David AlexanderUniversity College London

Page 2: Vulnerability to Disasters

The components of risk

Physical disaster

Magnitude

Frequency

Duration

Human vulnerability

ExposureLocation of hazard

Environment

ResistanceLifestyle and earnings

Health

Resilience

Adjustments

Risk reduction activities

Preparations for disaster

After Ian Davis (2005)

Page 3: Vulnerability to Disasters

Uncertain future:

long-term trendsclimatechangecapacity to adapt

Livelihoods:security and

wealth generation

Hazardsand risks:disaster

preparedness

Governance:democratic participation in decision

making

RESILIENCE:managing risks

adapting to changesecuring resources

Page 4: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability is constructed socially

• it is mainly the result of social,economic, political and culturalfactors in decision-making

• it is becoming harder to reduce.

Page 5: Vulnerability to Disasters

Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.In the second half of the 20th century

the world experienced increases of:

• 250% in the number of recorded disasters

• 500% in number of disasters with victims

• 500% in the number of affected people

• 1640% in the costof insured damage.

• 1500% in the totalcost of disasters Disasters

1900-2010

Page 6: Vulnerability to Disasters

Then (1950s) Now (2013)

Under-reporting of disasters

More complete recording

Counting only direct effects

Quantifying indirect effects

Smaller population of hazardous places

Larger population, greater densities

Less inequality Growing inequality and

marginalisation

Less fixed capital at risk

Relentless accumulation of fixed capital

Simpler socio-economic networks

More complex networks

Page 7: Vulnerability to Disasters

• social and technologicalcomplexity are increasing

• fixed capital is being accumulated

• the world is becoming more polarised

• urbanisation and thegrowth of "mega-cities".

Societies are becomingmore vulnerable

Page 8: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability approach

• people, not physical forces, are theprincipal cause of risks and disasters

• focus on reducing community vulnerability

• "soft" rather than "hard" approaches

• "bottom-up" (grass roots) approach.

Page 9: Vulnerability to Disasters

A sample of the annualpattern of casualtiesin natural disasters

Page 10: Vulnerability to Disasters

A sample of the annual patternof losses in natural disasters

Page 11: Vulnerability to Disasters

Death

tolls

Economic losses

Differential impact of disasters

Developing countries anddepressed urban areasof developed countries

Developed countries andthe richest cities ofthe developing world

Page 12: Vulnerability to Disasters

What exactly is vulnerability?

Page 13: Vulnerability to Disasters

RiskCivil defence

Hazard

Vulnerability

Threat

Exposure

Response

Mitigation Protection

Civil protection

Page 14: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability is...

• the potential degree of loss resultingfrom a particular hazard or setof hazards of a given magnitude

• the potential for harm

• something that is constructed socially

• the inverse of capability(coping, resilience).

Page 15: Vulnerability to Disasters

UNESCO / UNDRO (1982) Definitionsof Hazard and Risk Terminology

Vulnerability (V): the degree of lossto a given element or set of elementsat risk resulting from the occurrenceof a hazardous phenomenon of a givenmagnitude. It is expressed on a scalefrom 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss)

Page 16: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability

Total: life isgenerallyprecarious

Residual: caused bylack of modernisation

Newlygenerated:caused bychanges in

circumstances

Delinquent:caused bycorruption,negligence,

etc.

Economic:people lackadequateoccupation

Technologicaltechnocratic:caused by

the riskinessof technology

Page 17: Vulnerability to Disasters

Primary• cause and effect

Secondary• interaction of causes

• coincidences

Complex• complicatedinteractions

VULNERABILITY

Page 18: Vulnerability to Disasters

(Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure)Resilience= Risk

[ → Impact → Response]

Hazard x (Vulnerability / Resilience)[x Exposure]

= Risk[ → Impact → Response]

....alternatively:-

Page 19: Vulnerability to Disasters

VulnerabilityHazard

An asset is notvulnerable unlessit is threatenedby something

A hazard is nothazardous unless

it threatenssomething

RISKExtremeevents

Elementsat risk

Resilience

Exposure

Page 20: Vulnerability to Disasters

Disaster management

Emergency management

Crisis management

Risk management

Vulnerability management

Hypothetical

Concrete Concentrated

Diffuse

Page 21: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vert

ical axis s

cales:

Hazard

: pr

obability o

f oc

curr

enc

eVulne

rability: po

tent

ial damage

Risk: va

lue o

f pr

obable c

osts

and

los

ses

Severity

Risk as productof hazard andvulnerability

Total annualpredicted costsand losses

Risingvulnerabilitywith increasingseriousness ofpotentialconsequences

Falling hazardwith diminishingprobability ofoccurrence

Fat-tailed distribution

Page 22: Vulnerability to Disasters

The role ofperception

Page 23: Vulnerability to Disasters

Riskamplification

factors

Riskmitigationfactors

Totalvulnerability

Risk perceptionfactors- +

positivenegative

DIALECTIC

Page 24: Vulnerability to Disasters

Causes of disasternatural geophysical,technological, social

Historysingle andcumulativeimpactof pastdisasters

Humancultures

constraintsand

opportunitiesIMPACTS

Adaptationto risk

RESILIENCE

Page 25: Vulnerability to Disasters

Diffusion of information

Perceptual filter

Cultural filter

Emergency not decoded

Emergency decoded

Ignorance

Imagesof reality

Symbolicconstructions

Enlightenment

Page 26: Vulnerability to Disasters

Long term

Short term

Emic components

Etic components

METAMORPHOSISOF CULTURE

Experiences of culture[mass-media and consumer culture]

Accumulated cultural traits and beliefs

Inherited cultural background

Ideological(non-scientific)interpretations

of disaster

Learned(scientific)

interpretationsof disaster

Page 27: Vulnerability to Disasters

Valuesystem

Familyculture

Workculture

Peergroupculture

Personalculture

National culture

Regional culture

Page 28: Vulnerability to Disasters

Technologyorganisationssafety culture

Ethnologysocieties

community culture

Psychologyethnic groups

individual culture

Communicationmass media

multicultural societies

Page 29: Vulnerability to Disasters

Filter

Perception

Culture

Decision

Action

Result

Positive Negative

Risk

Accurate Inaccurate

Page 30: Vulnerability to Disasters

Technologyas risk

mitigation

Technologyas a source

of vulnerability

Research,development

and investmentin technology

individualfamilypeer grouporganisationcommunitysocietyinternational C

ultu

ral filter

Sociocentrism Technocentrism

Page 31: Vulnerability to Disasters

Culturalfilter

Riskmanagementpractices

Benign

Malignant

Technologyas a source ofrisk reduction

Technology asan inadvertentsource of risk

Technologyas a deliberatesource of risk

Ceaselessdevelopmentof technology

Page 32: Vulnerability to Disasters

Large disaster

Increasedexpenditure

Return ofcomplacency

Risk-expenditure cycle

Deaths, injuries,hardship, damage, disruption

Review

Reduced riskNo disaster

Reducedexpenditure

Increased risk

Page 33: Vulnerability to Disasters

Disaster

Public outcry Rhetoric

Logic

Laws

Safety culture

The evolution ofa safety culture

Page 34: Vulnerability to Disasters

What exactly is resilience?

Page 35: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability = 1 / resilience

Resilience: mechanisms for avoidingimpacts or absorbing them by coping

Coping strategies:• indigenous• imported

Page 36: Vulnerability to Disasters

What is resilience [resiliency]?

• a combination of resistance andadaptation (coping, capacity, capability)

• ability to maintain livelihoods and tenorof life in the face of disaster shocks

• local autonomy and self-sufficiency.

Page 37: Vulnerability to Disasters

Attitud

e

Theingredientsof resilience

Page 38: Vulnerability to Disasters

• robustness: resist stresswithout loss of function

• redundancy: ability to continuefunctioning during periods of disruption

• ingenuity: ability to identifyproblems and mobilise resources

• rapidity: ability to satisfy objectivesand priorities so as to reduce losses.

The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-

Page 39: Vulnerability to Disasters

Recoveryand

reconstruction

Mitigationandresilience

Preparationandmobilisation

Emergencyintervention

Quiescence

Crisis

The disastercycle

Page 40: Vulnerability to Disasters

needs to be shortenedneeds to belengthened

preparationfor the

next event

warningand

evacuation

recovery andreconstruction

repair ofbasic

services

emergencymanagementand rescue

isolation

impact

needs to bestrengthenedRisk reduction and disaster mitigation

Page 41: Vulnerability to Disasters

Conclusions

Page 42: Vulnerability to Disasters

Disasteropens awindow ofopportunityfor positivechange andgreatersecurity

Page 43: Vulnerability to Disasters

The optimistic view

Page 44: Vulnerability to Disasters

What is sustainable vulnerability reduction?

• it is centred upon the local level(but is harmonised from above)

• through consultation it has the supportand involvement of the population

• plans tackle all the phases of thedisaster cycle - in an integrative way

• it is a fundamental, every-day servicefor the population and is taken seriously.

Page 45: Vulnerability to Disasters

HUMANCONSEQUENCES

OF DISASTER

“ORTHODOX” MODEL

PHYSICALEVENT

HUMANVULNERABILITY

“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)HUMAN

CONSEQUENCESOF DISASTER

HUMANVULNERABILITY

PHYSICALEVENT

PROPOSAL FOR A NEW MODEL

HUMANCONSEQUENCES

OF DISASTER

HUMANVULNERABILITY

CULTURE HISTORYPHYSICALEVENTS

CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES

Page 46: Vulnerability to Disasters

Resilience against disasters:Ten suggestions for action

Page 47: Vulnerability to Disasters

Organisednon-structural

protection

Enhancedstructuralprotection

Planning,warning andpreparedness

Fusion withsustainability

agenda

Policy outcomes

Protection strategy

Page 48: Vulnerability to Disasters

Tell people what to do in a crisis.

Page 49: Vulnerability to Disasters

Develop urban search andrescue capacity on site.

Page 50: Vulnerability to Disasters

Reduce non-structural aswell as structural hazards.

Page 51: Vulnerability to Disasters

Plan flexibly.

Page 52: Vulnerability to Disasters

Create networks.

Page 53: Vulnerability to Disasters

Encourage governance.

Page 54: Vulnerability to Disasters

Adapt and disseminate good practice.

Page 55: Vulnerability to Disasters

Ensure that Disaster Risk Reduction(DRR) programmes are sustainable

Page 56: Vulnerability to Disasters

Create a strategy for recoveringfrom the next disaster.

Page 57: Vulnerability to Disasters

Create a culture of resilienceagainst disasters.

Page 58: Vulnerability to Disasters

...and avoid themyth of panic:

it should not betreated as a

relevant factorin emergency

planning

Page 59: Vulnerability to Disasters

Exposure Sensitivity

Capacity toadapt

VULNERA-BILITY

Dimensions ofvulnerability:• exposure• sensitivity• capacityto adapt

Components ofthe dimensions

Measures of the components

Page 60: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability• Dimensions• Components• Measures

Exposure Sensitivity

Capacityto adapt

VULNERA-BILITY

Physical dimensions

Age of theinfrastructure

Age andincome of the

populationDemo-graphy

Technology

Res-ponse

ManagementstructureAccess to

information andtechnology

Exposedres-

ources

Exposedpopulation

Intensity

Frequency

Location

Number

Wealth andwell being

Taxrevenues

Emergencyplans

Level ofeducation

Informationservices

Page 61: Vulnerability to Disasters

Analysis

• registered• archived• forgotten• ignored

Vulnerabilitymaintained-

• utilised• adopted• learned

Disasterriskreduced

+

LessonsPast

events

The process ofdisaster riskreduction(DRR)

Page 62: Vulnerability to Disasters

A guide to recognizingvulnerability in the field

Page 63: Vulnerability to Disasters

How to estimate vulnerability in the field

Elements:

• buildings and physical structures

• lifelines and infrastructure

• patterns of activity

that put people at risk

• perceptions of hazard

• concentrations and patterns

of elements at risk.

Page 64: Vulnerability to Disasters

NB: Most of the following slides showpost hoc indications

of vulnerability.

Page 65: Vulnerability to Disasters

Squatter settlementin Bangladesh Flood level

Normal river level

Rather than mitigating the sources ofvulnerability to disaster, globalisation ismaintaining, exporting and reinforcingthem by its divide-and-rule strategies

Page 66: Vulnerability to Disasters

PeruvianAndes,EasternCordillera

Rock debrisslide-fall

Destroyedhouses

Page 67: Vulnerability to Disasters

The 'megacity' problem

Page 68: Vulnerability to Disasters

Tehran

Page 69: Vulnerability to Disasters

Tehran

Page 70: Vulnerability to Disasters

Kathmandu

Page 71: Vulnerability to Disasters

Kathmandu

Page 72: Vulnerability to Disasters

İstanbul

Page 73: Vulnerability to Disasters

İstanbul

Page 74: Vulnerability to Disasters

Tokyo

Page 75: Vulnerability to Disasters

Poor buildingquality

(low seismicresistance)

Proximityto epicentreand faultrupture

Topographicamplification

Sedimentaryamplification

Q E

T S

Concentrationof casualties

C

C = f { E,Q,S,T }

Deaths

Injuries

Q E

T S

Vulnerabilityto earthquakes

Page 76: Vulnerability to Disasters

'Window' of active faultwith mullion slickensides

and normal (verticaldownwards) displacement

Seismic consolidation-compaction subsidence

at fault boundary

Page 77: Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability in theconnection betweenwall and joist leadsto collapse of the structure in anearthquake

Page 78: Vulnerability to Disasters

Random rubblemasonry withpowdery limemortar is amajor sourceof vulnerabilityin historic andold buildings.

Page 79: Vulnerability to Disasters

Collapse often beginsat roof level if roofstructure is too rigidand poorly tied tovertical load-bearingmembers.

Page 80: Vulnerability to Disasters

Cornices,parapetsand other façadedetails areparticularlyvulnerable todamage inearthquakes.

[four people werecrushed to death here]

Page 81: Vulnerability to Disasters

Inadequatelyconstructedframe buildingsare vulnerable toprogressive collapse.

Page 82: Vulnerability to Disasters

Stairwells areoften the mostvulnerable partof the buildingduringearthquakes,and the firstpart that peopleuse as they tryto escape.

Page 83: Vulnerability to Disasters

Zone of interference

Differential movements

Page 84: Vulnerability to Disasters

Pre-earthquakeroof-line

Replacementstonework

Page 85: Vulnerability to Disasters

Self-protection during earthquakes andtornadoes is NOT fostered by the myth thatit is safe to shelter under desks and tables.

Page 86: Vulnerability to Disasters

Rim of caldera blastedapart in A.D. 79

Cone activeA.D. 1631-1944

Europe's most densely populated municipality(population 80,000 in 4.5 sq.km)

Page 87: Vulnerability to Disasters

0 1 2 3 4 5 km

Tyrrhenian

Sea

Mt Vesuvius

Portici

Ercolano

( and Herculaneum)

Mt Somma

Naples

Barra

Pompeii

Torre

del Greco

Torre

Annunziata

San Giuseppe

Vesuviano

Main lava flow, pyroclastic flow

and lahar hazard areas

Densely

settled areas

Tephra

fallout areas

Population at riskmin: 650,000

max: 3.1 million

Page 88: Vulnerability to Disasters

Somma-Vesuvius Portici (pop. 80,000)

1631pyroclastic flow

Page 89: Vulnerability to Disasters

1631 pyroclastic flow(4000 dead in Portici)

Page 90: Vulnerability to Disasters

recent flank cone

19th centurylava flows

homes of 1-3 million people

MountVesuvius

Page 91: Vulnerability to Disasters

Forward thrust

Nodes arefirst to fail

Columnsshear throughunder sustainedpressure

Landslide direction

Page 92: Vulnerability to Disasters

Spontaneoustoppling failure

in unconsolidatedsands

Backwardrotation of

toppled blocks

Bedrooms wherefour people died

Page 93: Vulnerability to Disasters

Spontaneous total failure of foundations

Spontaneous totalfailure of r-c frame bldg

...with someforward thrust

Page 94: Vulnerability to Disasters

Tranquil Alpine scene

...with debris flow

...and severalbrand-new hotelsat its foot

Page 95: Vulnerability to Disasters

...and bouldersthat went

right through!

Page 96: Vulnerability to Disasters
Page 97: Vulnerability to Disasters

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