vulnerability of tasmania’s natural environment · wilderness and unique natural heritage. the...

Depar tment of Pr imar y Industr ies, Par ks, Water and Environment

Vulnerability of Tasmania’sNatural Environmentto Climate Change:An Overview

Citation: Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Resource Management and Conservation Division (2010). Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview. Unpublished report. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart.

Acknowledgements: Louise Gilfedder, Felicity Faulkner and Jennie Whinam were responsible for the production of this document. However, many DPIPWE staff contributed to this report through discussions, comments on early drafts and provision of written and photographic material and their help is gratefully acknowledged. These include Michael Askey-Doran, Jayne Balmer, Stewart Blackhall, Oberon Carter, Andrew Crane, Brooke Craven, Michael Driessen, Rolan Eberhard, Bryce Graham, Stephen Harris, Ian Houshold, Drew Lee, Declan McDonald, Clarissa Murphy, Annie Phillips, Adrian Pyrke, Tim Rudman, Peter Voller and Howel Williams. Greg Holz and Michael Grose from the Climate Futures for Tasmania Project are thanked for their assistance with climate data.

Thanks also to Brett Littleton of the ILS Design Unit of DPIPWE who did the graphic design.

ISBN (Book): 978-0-7246-6532-7ISBN (Web): 978-0-7246-6533-4

Cover: Frozen puddles in buttongrass moorland (Oberon Carter). Insets: Red-capped dotterel (Mick Brown), Shaw’s cowfish (Benita Vincent), Short candleheath (DPIPWE).Inside Cover: Macquarie Island Nature Reserve (Tim Rudman).Back Inside Cover: Wet forest (Matt Taylor).

© Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 2010.

Copyright

All material published in the report by the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, as an agent of the

Crown, is protected by the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cwlth). Other than in accordance with the provisions of the

Act, or as otherwise expressly provided, a person must not reproduce, store in a retrieval system, or transmit any such material

without first obtaining the written permission of the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment.

Disclaimer

Whilst the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment makes every attempt to ensure the accuracy

and reliability of information published in this report, it should not be relied upon as a substitute for formal advice from the

originating bodies or Departments. DPIPWE, its employees and other agents of the Crown will not be responsible for any loss,

however arising, from the use of, or reliance on this information.

Vulnerability of Tasmania’sNatural Environment

to Climate Change:An Overview

Secretary’s Foreword

Tasmania is a special place, an archipelago of 334 islands, with rugged wild coastline and mountainous regions, wilderness and unique natural heritage. The island supports wide geographical, climatic and environmental variation providing a range of habitats for our wildlife and our rich and diverse flora. Over 40% of the state is protected in reserves, including the Tasmanian Wilderness and Macquarie Island World Heritage areas. We are indeed in a unique position.

Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge for biodiversity conservation planning and natural resource management in Tasmania. Biodiversity has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change. Natural systems and the biodiversity they contain underpin the provision of ecological processes, including nutrient, carbon and water cycling, and help maintain ecological services such as water purification, carbon storage, pollination and pest control. Our economy and our well-being are reliant on a healthy natural environment.

The Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment has a key role in managing and preserving our beautiful, unique State, including caring for Tasmania’s past, present and future natural heritage. We must work with the community, business, industry and non-government sectors to build resilience so that we can reduce the vulnerability of the natural environment to the potential impacts of climate change.

My Department currently has projects underway that focus on climate change projection and adaptation. The Adaptation to Climate Change for Tasmania’s Natural Systems Project is one of these initiatives. The project will provide information about the impact of climate change on the State’s natural values to enable adaptation to be incorporated into policy and management responses for the sustainable management and conservation of our natural resources. This report is part of that process.

Kim Evans

Secretary Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment

ii Secretar y’s foreword

Overview

There is general consensus that climate change will result in increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

Over the coming decades Tasmania is expected to experience:

- increased land and sea temperatures; - changes to rainfall patterns and higher evaporation in

most areas;- wind speed changes; and- sea level rises.

Despite global and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some level of climate change is now inevitable, and we will need to adapt the way we do things to maintain Tasmania’s social, environmental and economic wellbeing.

Dealing with climate change will be part of the reality of life in Tasmania for many decades to come.

The Australian Government and all Australian State and Territory Governments have recognised the importance of adapting to climate change. There is agreement that:

- some climate change is unavoidable - attention needs to be paid now to our climate change

adaptation needs- adaptation is a shared responsibility – governments,

business and the community all have a role.

The Tasmanian Government’s Framework for Action on Climate Change identified four areas where Tasmania should initially focus in adapting to climate change:

- Ensuring scientific research provides a firm foundation for taking action in different regions and different sectors by measuring and predicting climate change and identifying new approaches;

- Giving individuals, communities and businesses appropriate information, resources, skills and incentives to plan and adapt to climate change and manage their own risks;

- Providing an adequate and appropriate emergency response to more frequent and intense events, such as bushfires, floods and storms, and assisting communities recover from such events; and

- Managing risks to public infrastructure, assets and values (including roads, biodiversity, national parks and reserves), and protecting industry and the community against health and bio-security risks.

This Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview provides input into all four adaptation priorities identified by the Tasmanian Government. Taking action to adapt to inevitable change is vital if we are to protect and sustainably manage our unique natural environment.

Wendy Spencer

Executive Director Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet

iiiOver view

Foreword by Kim Evans (Secretary, Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment) . . . . . . . ii

Overview by Wendy Spencer (Director, Tasmanian Climate Change Office) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

International and national responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Setting the scene - Tasmania’s natural heritage . . . . . . . . . 3

Tasmania’s reserve estate and World Heritage Areas . . . . 4

Tasmania and global climate history . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Potential climate change and its physical effects in Tasmania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Increased CO2 concentrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Rainfall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Snow and frost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Other terrestrial effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Effects of oceans and ocean currents on terrestrial weather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Changes in the physical marine environment . . . . . . . . 10

Sea level rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

2 Interaction of Current Stressors to Natural Values with Climate Change . . 12

Fire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Invasive species . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Wildlife diseases and pathogens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Land use change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

3 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geoconservation and Land Resource Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Key values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Impacts on key drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

4 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Key values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22


5 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity . . . 29

Key values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29


Ecosystem level responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystems . . . 32

Moorlands and peatlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Forest, woodland and sssociated ecosystems . . . . . . . . 36

Lowland grassland ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Species level responses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

6 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Marine and Coastal Ecosystems . . . . . . 45

Key values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Impacts on key drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Predicted impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems . . 50

Tasmania’s subantarctic Macquarie Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

7 Responding to Climate Change . . . . . . . 56

Mitigation and adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Principles for managing natural assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Monitoring the impacts of climate change on key natural assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

8 Glossary of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

9 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

iv

Executive Summary

Climate change is a global issue and Tasmania, like other parts of Australia, is already showing evidence of change. Much of Tasmania has experienced a warming in average maximum temperatures since the 1970’s, accompanied by strong decreases in rainfall. Sea level has risen 10-20 cm in the last century, with water temperatures off Tasmania’s east coast increasing by more than 1°C since the 1940s. Ocean acidity levels have also increased in recent times, along with atmospheric CO2 levels.

Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge for biodiversity conservation planning and natural resources management. Government, natural resource managers, land managers, community organisations and the broader community in Tasmania all need to consider the impacts of climate change, and the mitigation and adaptation efforts that we can all undertake to protect Tasmania’s unique natural environment. Some climate change is now inevitable and we need to adjust to these unavoidable changes.

The past decade has seen a significant increase in responses to the threat of climate change at the international and national scales. In 2007 the Fourth Assessment of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (generally referred to as IPCC AR4) completed an assessment of current scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems and the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability. The recent Climate Change Science Compendium (McMullen 2009), compiled by the United Nations Environment Program, updates and reaffirms the strong scientific evidence of IPCC AR4, and shows that the pace and scale of climate change is increasing at a greater rate than previously thought by scientists. The assessment identified that biodiversity and other natural values are one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change.

The first national assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change was commissioned in 2007. The final report, A Strategic

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Australia’s Biodiversity to Climate Change (Steffen et al . 2009), was released in 2009, along with a technical synthesis and a summary for policy makers. National assessments have also been undertaken to assess the implications of climate change for related issues, including marine life (Hobday et al. 2006), Australia’s National Reserve System (Dunlop & Brown 2008), natural resource management (Campbell 2008), World Heritage Properties (Australian National University 2009), and fire regimes (Williams et al . 2009).

The Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview is the first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Tasmania’s natural values. It will help guide the formulation of policy and management responses for adaptation approaches that will enhance the resilience of Tasmania’s natural systems.

Tasmania’s unique natural heritage

Tasmania is an important repository of natural diversity that represents both elements of the rich assemblages of natural systems and species that are part of Australia’s ancient heritage, unique and important at a global level, but also includes elements of this diversity that are unique to the state.

As a mountainous state with strong climatic gradients, Tasmania is considered to be somewhat buffered from the predicted impacts of climate change compared to other regions in Australia. However, we are still likely to face major challenges.

Tasmania’s native vegetation and soils also have additional values as they are important natural storage for carbon, particularly in our extensive reserve system, and these natural carbon stores will also play an important part in our adaptation approaches.

vExecutive Summar y

Natural values potentially at risk from climate change

This report undertakes an initial assessment of the projected impact of climate change on the natural values of Tasmania’s terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, considering the potential impacts on physical and biological processes. Climate change is likely to lead to ecosystem changes, including transformed and novel ecosystems, and local species extinctions. Changes such as decreased rainfall and increased temperature, and increased frequency of extreme events such as drought, storm surges, and fire, will variably impact on biodiversity in different regions in Tasmania. Tasmania’s natural values are already impacted by a range of threats and disturbance regimes such as fire, weeds and diseases - climate change may exacerbate these or lead to complex and cumulative interactions.

Tasmania contains a wide range of geodiversity (rock types, landforms and soils). Climate change will impact on geomorphic process, landforms and soil systems both directly and indirectly, with fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands) and coastal/estuarine (particularly soft, sandy coasts) systems likely to be impacted most significantly. Soils form a critical link between landforms and vegetation providing valuable ecosystem services, controlling vegetation health and moderating infiltration and runoff. Climate-induced changes to rainfall intensity, vegetation cover, fire frequency and intensity, and windstorm intensity all have the potential to impact on soils leading to changes in soil hydrology, soil organic carbon, salinity, erosion and sedimentation.

Terrestrial ecosystems considered potentially highly vulnerable include alpine ecosystems, moorlands and peatlands, particularly to altered fire regimes. Increased shrub and tree invasion in these ecosystems could lead to significantly transformed ecosystems, including increased fuel loads. In addition Tasmanian moorlands and peatlands may shift from accumulating carbon to releasing carbon into the atmosphere, a serious issue for managing Tasmania’s carbon emissions. Moorland fauna such as the broad-toothed rat and burrowing crayfish are sensitive to changes in moorland habitats. Species with restricted ranges such as mountain tops or low-lying islands and coasts, or those with life strategies or specialised habitats and ecological requirements are also at risk to the impacts of climate change.

Freshwater ecosystems are also considered to be highly vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. Warmer temperatures, increased wind and changing rainfall patterns are projected to impact on water availability. Coastal wetlands will be particularly vulnerable to changes in hydrology and the impacts of sea level rise.

Marine and coastal ecosystems are predicted to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Global climate models predict that the greatest warming in the Southern Hemisphere oceans will be in the Tasman Sea. Current evidence is showing an increase in southward extent of the East Australian Current off eastern Tasmania, with a resultant southern extension of warmer, nutrient-poor waters, allowing the southern range extension of marine species including pests. Significant areas of Tasmania’s coast are at risk of erosion from exposure to sea level rise and storm surge inundation.

Managing Tasmania’s natural heritage and dealing with uncertainty associated with climate change will be challenging. Nevertheless, the development and implementation of adaptation measures to inevitable change is vital and will require commitment and action from all levels of government and the Tasmanian community.

vi Executive Summar y

This report undertakes an initial assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the natural values of Tasmania’s terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, considering the potential impacts on physical and biological processes. It will assist in identifying key natural values that are vulnerable, also indicating where a more detailed risk assessment is warranted in order to identify species, communities and places that are a key risk. This approach will guide the formulation of policy responses, including future monitoring strategies and adaptive management responses.

Australia (and Tasmania) is currently experiencing environmental change that is consistent with a climate change signal. Whilst there is considerable uncertainty about the nature of the potential impacts from future climate change on Tasmania’s

natural environment, it is clear that changes are already happening, particularly from extreme events. In this report we do not address the various arguments with regard to the evidence for climate change and its likely causes – climate change is accepted as a reality.

There is a lack of climate and long-term physical and biological data available for the southern hemisphere, with a significant concentration of relevant climate science studies in the northern hemisphere, as illustrated in Figure 1.1 (Fischlin et al . 2007). The potential risks identified in this report are based on the extrapolation of ecological and biological principles to possible responses to altered temperature and rainfall, increased CO2, changes in ocean chemistry and sea level rise.

Risk assessment for climate change

Detailed risk assessment of vulnerability will be needed for some natural values. Ecological complexity and the non-linearity of responses are two factors that make predictions about the impacts of climate change difficult, along with the uncertainty of interactions between climate change and current pressures such as invasive species, diseases and fire. Therefore, to balance the complexities and uncertainties of considering the future impacts of climate change, it is useful when undertaking an assessment of the vulnerability of the natural environment to consider impacts in terms of the exposure and sensitivity of organisms and ecosystems to the changes. Exposure is the probability that an ecosystem will be subject to changes in climate variables including means, extremes and variability (e.g. coastal systems will be exposed to sea level rise). The sensitivity of a system is the extent to which changes in climate will affect the system in its current form (e.g. alpine ecosystems will be sensitive to an increase in temperature). On the other hand, the adaptive capacity of a system is its capacity to change in a way that makes it better equipped to deal with changes. Illustrated in Figure 1.2, both the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system will contribute to how vulnerable the system is to changes in climate.

1

Introduction

1.

Figure 1 .1 Global locations of observed data series relating to climate change .

International and national responses to the threat of climate change

The past decade has seen a significant increase in responses to the threat of climate change at the international and national scales. The Fourth Assessment of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (generally referred to as IPCC AR4) completed an assessment of current scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems, and the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability (Fischlin et al . 2007). The IPCC AR4 global assessment has identified that during the course of this century the resilience of many ecosystems and their ability to adapt is likely to be exceeded by an unprecedented combination of change in climate, associated

disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insect herbivory, ocean acidification) and in other global change drivers, especially land use change, pollution and over-exploitation of resources (Fischlin et al. 2007).

The recent Climate Change Science Compendium (McMullen 2009) compiled by the United Nations Environment Program updates and reaffirms the strong scientific evidence of IPCC AR4, and shows that the pace and scale of climate change is accelerating at a greater rate than previously thought by scientists. Climate Change 2009: Faster Change and More Serious Risks (Steffen 2009) undertakes a similar review of recent developments in climate science but is focused more strongly on the issues of more direct relevance to Australia.

At both the national and Tasmanian level it is accepted that climate change and climate variability are happening. The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) is committed to ensuring that an effective and co-ordinated response to climate change is undertaken by national and state governments. A National Climate Change Adaptation Framework was endorsed by COAG in 2007 as the basis for government action on adaptation (Australian Government 2007). It includes possible actions to assist the most vulnerable sectors and regions, such as agriculture, biodiversity, fisheries, forestry, settlements and infrastructure, coastal, water resources, tourism and health to adapt to the impacts of climate change. A key focus of the Framework is to support decision-makers to understand and incorporate climate change into policy and operational decisions at all scales and across all vulnerable sectors.

The National Resource Management Ministerial Council commissioned the first national assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change in 2007 as a priority action. The Biodiversity Vulnerability Assessment was undertaken by an independent Biodiversity and Climate Change Expert Advisory Group, a group of prominent Australian scientists chaired by Professor Will Steffen of The Australian National University. The

2 Introduction

Exposure Sensitivity

PotentialImpact

AdaptiveCapacity

Vulnerability

Figure 1 .2 The contribution of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a system’s overall vulnerability (Allen Consulting Group 2005) .

final report, A Strategic Assessment of the Vulnerability of Australia’s Biodiversity to Climate Change (Steffen et al . 2009), was released in June 2009, along with a technical synthesis and a summary for policy makers. National assessments have also been undertaken to assess the implications of climate change for marine life (Hobday et al . 2006; Poloczanska et al . 2009), Australia’s National Reserve System (Dunlop and Brown 2008), natural resource management (Campbell 2008), World Heritage Properties (Australian National University 2009), and fire regimes (Williams et al . 2009).

The Tasmanian State Government, along with other organisations and the broader Tasmanian community, is involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies through its participation in national policy development and programs and the development and implementation of state strategies. Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge for biodiversity conservation planning in Tasmania and for managers of key natural assets, such as protected areas.

Setting the scene - Tasmania’s natural heritage

Australia is an isolated continent with a unique natural heritage. Almost 10% of all species on earth occur in Australia, and Australia is internationally recognised as a global biodiversity hotspot. Many of Australia’s species are endemic - 85% of terrestrial mammals, 90% of flowering plant species, frogs and reptiles are found nowhere else on earth (Lindenmayer 2007). Australia’s marine environment also has unique geological, oceanographic and biological characteristics (Poloczanska et al. 2007). Approximately 85% of fish species, 90% of echinoderm species, 95% of mollusc species are endemic (Poore 2001).

Tasmania has been isolated from the Australian mainland for at least 10,000 years, and supports a wide variety of plants and animals. There is wide geographic and environmental variation, and high diversity in geology, soil types, landforms and other ecological factors. Tasmania has a temperate climate, with much of the state having a mild summer, although the Central Highland and alpine areas have a cool summer. Annual rainfall ranges from <700 mm to 2,300 mm. Most of Tasmania has a wetter winter than summer, with the exception of the east and south-east of Tasmania which have no dominant rainfall season.

Tasmania has been described as one of Australia’s hotspots of botanical diversity and endemism at the large regional scale (Crisp et al . 2001). Tasmania has elements of biodiversity and geodiversity that reflect southern biogeographic and Gondwanan affinities. Many of the Gondwanan elements are endemic to Tasmania - 20% of the flowering plant species are found nowhere else, and these endemics tend to be concentrated in alpine and rainforest environments in western Tasmania. Some of the endemic eucalypt and conifer species dominate forests, hence this uniqueness is expressed at both the species and the ecosystem level. Recent research has also identified genetic distinctiveness of non-endemic taxa (e.g. Steane et al . 2006; Rathbone et al . 2007; Nevill 2009). High levels of endemism can also be found in invertebrate taxa (up to 100% for some groups) and for fish, and these endemics tend to be concentrated in western and central Tasmania (Driessen and Mallick 2003; Mallick and Driessen 2005).

There are approximately 1,900 native plant species, 34 native terrestrial mammals, 159 resident terrestrial species of birds, 21 land reptiles, 11 amphibians and 44 freshwater fish in the state (http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au). Tasmania has provided a refuge for species that have either died out or are threatened with extinction on the Australian mainland, and it has been protected from most of the

3

introduced animal species that have so greatly affected the flora and fauna of mainland Australia. The dingo is absent, and feral goats and pigs have restricted distributions in Tasmania, and the recent introduction of the fox is a matter of grave concern.

Tasmania’s reserve estate and World Heritage Areas

Under Tasmania’s Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) in 1997 the Tasmanian and Australian Governments agreed to establish a comprehensive, adequate and representative (CAR) reserve system to ensure the long-term conservation and protection of

Tasmania’s biodiversity, oldgrowth and wilderness values. The reserve system extends over land, inland waters, estuaries and marine areas, and includes formal, informal, and private reserves. Since this time the reserve system has been extended considerably through programs and agreements such as the Tasmanian Community Forest Agreement, the Crown Land Assessment and Classification Project, Marine Protected Area Strategy and various private land conservation programs. Tasmania is in a unique position nationally, with a large amount of its terrestrial area – 44.4% (June 2009) in reserves. Of this area, over 60,000 ha are in covenants on private land. The reserve system includes large, intact areas, with

a group of contiguous reserves totalling 1.71 million hectares in the state’s south-west, the core of which is the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA).

Tasmania’s Reserve Estate contains a significant range of values, including two globally recognised World Heritage Areas. This is illustrated at a broad level in Table 1.1, which shows the areal extent of major terrestrial ecosystems protected in Tasmania’s Reserve Estate. It can be seen that for several ecosystems, the reserve system contains more than half of their total extent in Tasmania. The range of habitat types represented by the various ecosystems in the reserve system support a great variety of plants and animals, as well as containing significant stores of carbon. The Tasmanian Reserve Estate also contains a range of landforms and terrains, including extensive karst systems, glacial landscapes, spectacular coastal landforms and beaches, and diverse rock and soil types (its geodiversity).

The TWWHA is located in south-west and central Tasmania and was first inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List in 1982 (Tasmanian Government and the Australian Heritage Commission 1981). In 1989 an expanded area of 1.38 million ha was successfully nominated (DASETT 1989). It is the outstanding natural and aboriginal heritage values present within the TWWHA that have led to its listing. Its value resides within, and

Major Ecosystem Area in

Tasmania (ha)% in

Reserves

Coastal 61,000 55

Dry forest and woodland 1,776,000 36

Lowland Grassland 100,000 4

Heathland 135,000 50

Highland treeless/alpine 168,000 78

Moorland, rushland and peatland 525,000 90

Rainforest & rainforest scrubs 780,000 84

Wet forest 1,431,000 59

Wetland 14,000 54

* Ecosystems given here are based on expert groupings of TASVEG (DPIW 2009) vegetation communities.

4 Introduction

Table 1 .1 The extent of major terrestrial ecosystems in Tasmania, and the amount contained within the Tasmanian Reserve Estate in 2009 .

is

protected by it’s essentially wilderness nature where the direct impacts of industrial and agricultural practices are restricted to a few locations on its borders. The TWWHA has extensive glacial and karst landforms throughout the region, and is a showcase of natural on-going ecological and biological processes, including the presence of all stages of vegetation succession between buttongrass moorland and coniferous rainforest.

Tasmania’s second World Heritage Area is subantarctic Macquarie Island, which was listed in 1997 (DEST 1996). It is a site of outstanding geological and natural significance on a world scale. The island is one of only a few in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean where fauna in the region can breed. Around 3.5 million seabirds and 80,000 elephant seals arrive on Macquarie Island each year to breed and moult. Fur seals are beginning to re-establish populations on the island after nearly being exterminated in the early 19th century.

Tasmania also has 122,600 hectares of Marine Protected Areas, across five marine bioregions, as well as

Commonwealth Marine Reserves

including 16.2 million hectares in the Macquarie Island Marine Reserve.

Tasmania and global climate history

Planning for Tasmania’s adaptation to climate change relies on an understanding of changing global environmental systems. Therefore, human-induced climate change since 1850 must be assessed in association with ongoing, long-term natural changes that have shaped the land surface and associated soils, controlled relationships between the land and sea, and determined the distribution of plants and animals in both terrestrial and marine environments.

The current rates of climate change are unprecedented in the global climate record. Some of the potential scenarios predicted for Australia (and Tasmania) for the next 100 years mean that environmental changes could be experienced that are in the order of those of the transition from the last Glacial Maximum to the present, a time period of five million years (Steffen et al . 2004).

Palaeo-environmental scientists often use the last full glacial-interglacial cycle (120 000 BP-present) to develop models of the effects of natural climate change on Earth systems. Key studies have focussed on changes between natural global warming and cooling cycles at the peaks and troughs of glacial and interglacial stages. A large body of work describing methods of interpretation (radiometric dating methods, pollen analysis, macrofossils, lake, deep-sea and ice-core analysis, coral, speleothem (cave deposits) and tree-ring analysis) is available to assist with interpreting past environmental change.

Since 1850 there has been a direct relationship globally between atmospheric CO2 and temperature, with increases in CO2 concentration preceding increases in temperature. Understanding the consequences of these changes, and associated lags between production of CO2, oceanic and terrestrial sequestration, will be critical in predicting environmental change over the next century.

After 1850, with increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, global mean temperature has risen about 0.76 ± 0.19°C, including 0.33°C since 1990 (Solomon et al . 2007). CO2 concentrations now exceed the natural range of the last 2 million years by 25%, methane by 120%, and nitrous oxide by 25% (Garnaut 2008). Most importantly, the rate of increase in both temperature and

5

The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area has outstanding natural and aboriginal heritage

values, with extensive glacial and karst landforms . Coniferous rainforests dominated by king billy pine and subalpine shrubberies are uniquely Tasmanian plant communities found in this globally recognised area . (Photo: Tom Bennett)

greenhouse gases far exceeds any documented increase under natural conditions.

Anthropogenic climate change differs from natural change principally through a spectacular increase in the rate of global warming, and potentially the frequency and intensity of extreme events. The predicted increase in temperatures over the next century is far greater than any variation over the last few million years. Therefore, analysis of lag times in Quaternary ecosystem response should underpin conceptual models of future change.

Potential climate change and its physical effects in Tasmania

Climate change trends in Tasmania are consistent with global trends, with data showing a rising mean annual temperature but less than the global and national average rises. Rising sea levels have also been observed in Tasmania, consistent with national and global trends (Church and White 2006). The effects of climate change also encompass altered rainfall patterns, an increase in droughts, floods, water shortages, and other extreme weather events, along with changes in ocean temperature, currents and chemistry. Several maps and graphs are provided in this section to demonstrate recent trends in temperature and rainfall (Figures 1.3-1.6)(Grose et al . 2010). Each graph provides an illustration of the trend in each variable across Tasmania since 1900. Below each

graph, maps show the linear trend between 1961 and 2007.

Overall, warming in terrestrial Tasmania is potentially moderated compared to mainland Australia, primarily because Tasmania is surrounded by ocean, thus much of the state’s daily temperature is moderated by coastal maritime influences. However, a change in the mean annual temperature of 1° may be significant in some places, whereas in another place a change of 2° may not have much effect. In addition, the incidence of extreme temperature events may be more important than the change in mean temperature (e.g. incidence of very hot days).

A number of projections of climate based on a range of credible scenarios for global greenhouse emissions have been undertaken for Tasmania. Hydro Tasmania commissioned CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research to undertake a high resolution modelling study of Tasmania’s climate in order to project likely trends in climate to 2040 based on one climate model (McIntosh et al . 2005).

Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) is currently being undertaken by the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre with a range of partners (ACE CRC 2007). They are producing fine-scale projections based on six IPCC AR4 climate simulation models to dynamically downscale to a grid resolution of 0.1° (approx. 10 km)(Corney et al . 2010). High (SRES

A2) and low (SRES B1) emission scenarios were chosen, and the models run from 1961 to 2100. The updated models and projections will be available in 2010, and will include information regarding changes in the various regions of Tasmania.

CFT projections based on a six model mean indicate that average temperatures will rise consistently across Tasmania, particularly in central Tasmania and at higher elevations. Under the A2 scenario for 2100, increased summer and autumn rainfall is likely in the east, and increased winter rainfall and reduced summer rainfall in the west. Central Tasmania will have reduced rainfall in all seasons.

Increased CO2 concentrations

Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, land cover and solar radiation all impact on the energy budget of the climate system. Evidence from ice core and dendrochronology research demonstrates that global emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, have increased dramatically since pre-industrial times (1750). These rates exceed the normal range over the last 650 000 years. Increasing atmospheric CO2 has also lead to increasing ocean acidification.

The current concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is 380 parts per million, compared with 280 parts per million in pre-industrial times (Solomon et al . 2007). The current global emissions trajectory is tracking

6 Introduction

at or near the upper limit of the IPCC suite of projections (Raupach et al . 2007), increasing the risk that we will exceed a 2°C rise in global mean temperature during this century.

The increase in CO2 in the atmosphere may lead to effects in soils such as a change in nutrient cycling and a decrease in the availability of soil nitrogen (Hovenden 2008), and changed soil microbial activity and soil water balance (Leakey et al . 2006). Increased CO2 leads to lowered transpiration rates in plants as there is a partial close of leaf stomata, reducing water loss and a lengthening in the growing season in water-limited vegetation (Morgan et al . 2004).

Temperature

Australian temperatures have increased by 0.9°C since 1950 (McIntosh et al . 2005), with significant regional variations. This is slightly higher than the global average increase of 0.76°C. Minimum temperatures have been increasing at a greater rate than maximum temperatures (Nicholls 2006). There has been a decrease in the number of cold days (<15°C) and cold nights (<5°C) since 1950.

An analysis of historical climate data identifies that much of Tasmania, particularly in the north and east, has experienced a warming in annual mean temperature since the

1970s. This is illustrated in Figure 1.3 (Climate Futures for Tasmania Project 2009 and Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP), Jones et al . 2007).

Analysis of climate data showing the trend for average daily minimum and daily maximum temperatures are illustrated in Figure 1.4 (Climate Futures for Tasmania Project 2009 and AWAP, Jones et al . 2007). It demonstrates a rise in minimum temperature across Tasmania.

Rainfall

Drought in Australia has become more severe, with increased temperatures and increased evaporation (Nicholls 2004). South-eastern Australia in the past decade has experienced the lowest rainfall on record, with some areas in the southern Midlands of Tasmania being the most drought-affected in the nation until recent drought-breaking rains in the winter of 2009.

Since 1970 there have been strong decreases in rainfall across Tasmania, typically around 20 to 40 mm per decade. Most of Tasmania experienced the three driest years on record in 2006-2008.

The trend of decreasing rainfall in Tasmania is illustrated in Figure 1.5 (Climate Futures for Tasmania Project 2009 and AWAP, Jones et al. 2007). The graph also illustrates a change since 1975 whereby there is a lower number of intervening wet years that have rainfall that is well above-average. More recently,

7

Figure 1 .3 Annual mean temperature anomaly from the 1961-1990 baseline period mean for Tasmania (blue line) and 11-year moving average (red line) from the Australian High Quality temperature dataset . The map below the plot shows the linear trend in mean temperature between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line on the plot, using 0 .05 ° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al . 2010) .

northern and eastern Tasmania have experienced long-term rainfall deficits in the last decade, and at record levels (Australian Bureau of Meterology 2008).

Figure 1.6 illustrates the recent trend of decrease in autumn rain, particularly in the east of Tasmania (Climate Futures for Tasmania Project 2009 and AWAP, Jones et al . 2007). Although this trend is not dissimilar to a smaller trend of decrease in autumn rain occurring earlier in the last century, the graph again illustrates a change in the variability and character in rainfall, with fewer very wet years (or ‘recharge’ years) in autumn rainfall since the 1970s.

Storms

Climate change is expected to affect disturbance regimes, including increases in storm intensity (5 to 10%) and/or frequency (including cyclones/hurricanes, high wind events, flooding) (Pittock 2003; Walsh et al . 2004). An increasing proportion of rain is expected to fall in more intense events (20 to 30%), and large storms are expected to be more severe, with higher winds, causing more damage, flooding and coastal inundation (Pittock 2003; Walsh et al . 2004). There is no clear evidence about regional changes in frequency and movement, but it is possible that cyclones may move

further south (Leslie and Karoly 2007).

Snow and frost

There will be marked reductions in snow cover and extent (Hennessy et al . 2003). The total area of snow cover in Australia is expected to decrease by 14 to 54% by 2020 and 30 to 93% by 2050. Frost occurrence is expected to decrease overall; however temperature is not the only driver of frosts, changes in synoptic circulation and decreased cloud cover could lead to increased severity of frosts and changes in their timing in some conditions.

Anecdotal evidence indicates that there has been a reduction in the amount and duration of snow in the Tasmanian mountains in the past few decades but historical data is not available for Tasmanian snowfields.

Increased minimum temperatures during winter and early spring are projected for Tasmania, resulting in fewer frost events where this occurs. There may also be a change in the incidence of very low temperature events that can lead to severe frosts. Some areas, where the minimum temperature remains sufficiently low, and where there may be lower cloud cover due to decreased rainfall, could undergo more frequent frost events. These changes will be of ecological significance. The Climate Futures for Tasmania Project is currently undertaking these sorts of analyses, particularly with regard to the potential impacts on agriculture.

8 Introduction

Figure 1 .4 Annual mean daily minimum and daily maximum temperature anomalies from the 1961-1990 baseline period mean for Tasmania (faint lines) and 11-year moving averages (thick lines) from the Australian High Quality temperature dataset . The maps below the plot shows the linear trend in daily maximum and minimum temperatures between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line, using 0 .05° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al . 2010) .

Other Terrestrial Effects

Wind speeds are projected to increase by a small amount in Tasmania, particularly in the north-west during winter, where projections imply increases in the monthly mean wind speed of 1.5-2 metres per second, by 2040 (McIntosh et al . 2005). There is likely to be an increase in evaporation, caused by the higher temperatures and increases in wind speed. This will be particularly significant in the north-east, which is predicted to have an annual evaporation increase of about 12% by 2040 (McIntosh et al . 2005). Coupled with changing rainfall patterns, this will impact on water availability.

In areas where there is a decrease in rainfall, there may be an associated decrease in relative humidity. A historical trend analysis of climate data over the period 1973–2007 found that decreased relative humidity along with increased storminess, and thus lightning strikes, extended dry periods and increased temperature, implies that an increase in fire weather days is likely to occur (Williams et al . 2009). Note that this was a general study without an indication of regional differences, and these trends may not apply to all of Tasmania. The Climate Futures for Tasmania Project is modelling the projected incidence of thunderstorms, lightning and extreme storm events.

9

Figure 1 .6 Statewide mean autumn total rainfall for Tasmania (blue line) and 11-year moving average (red line) from the Australian High Quality rainfall dataset . The map below the plot shows the linear trend in total autumn rainfall between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line, using 0 .05 ° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al . 2010) .

Figure 1 .5 Statewide mean annual total rainfall for Tasmania (blue line) and 11-year moving average (red line) from the Australian High Quality rainfall dataset . The map below the plot shows the linear trend in total annual rainfall between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line, using 0 .05 ° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al . 2010) .

Decreased rainfall leads to decreased stream flow, and stream gauge sites in Tasmania show a 15-30% reduction in stream flow over the last 15 years compared to historic records (Resource Management and Conservation Division 2008). The decrease in stream flow in turn leads to an increase in water temperature in small pools.

The amount of run-off may generally decrease in areas likely to have lower rainfall. However the prediction of more severe rainfall events increases the likelihood of those extreme events when the run-off is greatly increased. This would result in the water having less benefit for soil hydration and plant growth, as would water passing quickly through the soil profile (Resource Management and Conservation Division 2008).

The CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project has modelled climate change projections and the impacts on runoff to 2030 (CSIRO 2009). The projected changes vary according to the future climate scenarios used ranging from an increase of 2% to a decrease in 8% averaged over Tasmania. However there is a consensus in the data there will be a reduction in runoff in the central highlands extending into the north, parts of the north-east, the north-west corner of the State, and King Island, and virtually no areas show an increase in runoff (Freycinet is the small exception)(Viney et al. 2009).

The effects of oceans and ocean currents on terrestrial weather systems

As described further in the section regarding the physical marine environment below, the oceans are projected to undergo great change, particularly in water temperature and changes in ocean currents (Poloczanska et al . 2009). The ocean has a major influence on terrestrial weather and climate, with the upper levels of the ocean interacting with the lower levels of the atmosphere. Thus the effects of these ocean changes on terrestrial weather patterns will be complex and unpredictable, and they have been factored into CFT modelling (Grose et al. 2010).

General effects of the ocean on terrestrial weather patterns include influences on terrestrial temperature, wind, rainfall and storms. More specifically, the warm tropical water of the East Australian Current (EAC) moving southward down the east coast of Australia has the effect of keeping winter temperatures especially warm in coastal areas. Model projections commonly show a continuing southward extension of the EAC into the future. The effect of the ocean on wind systems is evidenced by sea breezes, which are driven by the temperature difference between the water and the land. Rainfall patterns are influenced because the warm, moist air associated with warm currents increases precipitation. Ocean currents can also play an important

part in the development of storm systems. This is particularly the case when cold air from the poles meets warm air associated with warm ocean currents. The interaction of these air masses can produce frontal systems in a process known as cyclogenesis (Tapper and Hurry 1993, Burroughs et al. 1999, Collis and Whitaker 2001).

Changes in the physical marine environment

Further increases in CO2 will have dramatic consequences for physical and chemical stressors of Australian marine systems. The ocean plays a significant role in the absorption of CO2, and heat - more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system (Solomon et al . 2007), and these functions have a significant impact on the physical properties of the ocean. Predictions of the effects on the marine environment are summarised in Table 1.2.

Substantial warming has occurred in the three oceans surrounding Australia, particularly off the south-east coast and in the Indian Ocean. Waters off the east coast of Tasmania have recorded an increase in temperature of more than 1°C since the 1940s. Global climate models predict that the greatest warming in the Southern Hemisphere oceans will be in the Tasman Sea, associated with a strengthening of the East Australian Current (EAC), which has increased in strength by 20% since the late 1970s (Cai 2006).

10 Introduction

Warming will not only affect surface waters, but will also penetrate deep into the ocean, warming waters down to 500m and beyond (Hobday et al . 2006). As Table 1.2 shows, climate change will also substantially modify other physical variables important for regulating marine ecosystems including incident solar radiation (through cloud formation), winds and mixed layer depth.

Ocean acidity is also increasing in Australian marine waters, particularly in the southern waters surrounding Tasmania. This will continue to increase, and this feature is present in all IPCC climate model simulations and is driven by a southward migration of the high westerly wind belt south of Australia.

Sea level rise

Church & White (2006) have shown that the rate of global mean sea level rise accelerated during the 20th century, and there was an increase in sea level in Tasmania of 10-20 cm during the last century, including a 14 cm rise on the south-east Tasmanian coast (Sharples 2006). The global sea level is predicted to continue to rise, with a rise of between 18-59 cm by 2100 relative to the 1990 sea level, taking into account only thermal expansion (Solomon et al . 2007). Solomon et al . (2007) warn that further icesheet data may make sea level rise predictions even higher, and the upper value of the predictions should not be considered an upper bound. Over 20% of the Tasmanian coastline will be at risk from sea level rise and more severe storm surges associated with climate change (Sharples 2006), which are likely to result in inundation and erosion of Tasmania’s coast. For many locations in Tasmania, a 50 cm sea level rise would result in the present one-in a-hundred-year storm surge event becoming an annual or more frequent event by the end of the 21st century (Church et al . 2008).

Physical climate change indicatorsProjected climate change impacts by 2070

Sea Surface Temperature

Waters around Australia warm by 1-2°C, with greatest warming in SE Australia/Tasman Sea due to strengthening of East Australian Current

Temperature at 500 m depth Warming of 0.5-1°C

Incident solar radiation

There will generally be more incident solar radiation on the sea surface in Australian waters. The increase will be between 2 and 7 units W m-2

Mixed layer depth

Almost all areas of Australia will have greater stratification and a shallowing of the mixed layer by about 1 m, reducing nutrient inputs from deep waters

Surface windsAn increase of 0-1 ms-1 in surface winds

Surface currentsA general decline in the strength of surface currents of between 0-1.2 ms-1

pH A decline in pH by 0.2 units

11

Table 1 .2 Projected changes in physical and chemical characteristics of Australia’s marine realm by 2070 from the CSIRO Mk 3 .5 model (Hobday et al . 2006 adapted from Gordon et al . 2002) .

Tasmanian natural values are already impacted by a range of threats and disturbance regimes such as fire, weeds and disease. Perhaps the greatest uncertainties in projecting the effects of climate change are associated with the interaction of climate change with other stressors. The effects of climate change will potentially exacerbate current stressors to natural values, with synergies, complex interactions and cumulative interactions among multiple system components likely to occur. Changing climate may undermine, or possibly enhance, efforts to reduce the effects of other types of disturbances such as fire, invasive species, or habitat fragmentation. The influence of changing climate therefore cannot be considered merely as “one more stressor”, but must be considered in every natural resource management activity planned and executed.

The largest single current stressor interacting with climate change is the impact of past land clearing and associated biodiversity loss. Also, past fishing practices which have depleted some of Tasmania’s fisheries will interact with the effects of climate change and predicted ocean acidification. The impact of invasive and pest species (including diseases and pathogens), increased risk of fire and land use change are discussed below.

Fire

Australia is considered one of the most fire-prone countries on earth (Bradstock et al . 2002), and with warming temperatures in many parts of the continent it is likely that fires will increase in frequency and intensity in many regions of Australia through affects on fire weather and fuel loads (Cary 2002; Williams et al . 2009).

It is suspected that climate change influences on bushfires in Tasmania will have a significant negative impact on the natural environment. Tasmania has stores of carbon in the soils and vegetation in reserve system and public and private native forests that collectively amount to 52% of the state’s land area. One of the most significant contributions that Tasmania can make to the level of global atmospheric greenhouse gases is to ensure that natural carbon stores are also protected from catastrophic natural events and uncontrolled releases of the carbon they contain (Tasmanian Climate Change Office 2008).

Bushfire weather predictions conducted for south-eastern Australia do not predict significant change for Hobart and Launceston by 2050 (Lucas et al . 2007). However, many climatic factors that could have significant ecological impacts have not yet been modelled. For example drier summers in western Tasmania (even with an increase in total annual rainfall) could lead to an increased number

of severe fire weather days. There are some apparent changes in the past 20 years in both weather and fire activity that may be indicative of longer term trends. For example, Hobart weather data indicates that the number of days in spring with Forest Fire Danger Index values of >40 has increased 400% in the decade 1997-2006 compared to 1987-1996. It is extreme fire weather days such as these when the majority of the total annual area gets burnt.

In the decade of fire seasons 1991-2000, unpublished Tasmanian Parks & Wildlife Service records show 14 lightning fires were recorded on reserved land with a total area burnt of 11,245 ha. In the seven fire seasons from 2000-2001 onwards there were 55 lightning fires and 160,698 ha of reserved land burnt. Lightning is now the major cause of wildfire in the TWWHA, whereas in 1986 it was considered that: “In Tasmania there is no strong relationship between thunderstorms and fire.” (Bowman and Brown 1986).

Some possible trends in bushfires and natural diversity that may result from climate change are:

- Greater area burnt annually by wildfires resulting from an increased frequency of severe fire weather days – there is evidence for this from fire simulation modelling.

- Greater area burnt of rainforest, alpine vegetation and organic

12 Interaction of Current Stressors to Natural Values with Climate Change

Interaction of Current Stressors to Natural Values with Climate Change 2.

soils if there is a continued trend of dry lightning and higher Soil Dryness Index (SDI) values in western Tasmania in the fire season months from November to March.

- Reduced inter-fire intervals in fire-adapted vegetation such as dry forest and heathland, resulting from the increased total area burnt, and increased ignition incidence. This would favour some plant species and disadvantage others (e.g. shrubs that are obligate seeders). It may also lead to changes in habitat structure affecting fauna utilisation.

- An increase in the frequency of drought events resulting in poor post-fire recruitment of plant species in fire-adapted vegetation, thus there is likely to be an impact even in drier ecosystems.

- A reduced time period in which land managers can conduct fuel reduction burns in safe conditions.

Fire management for bushfires and their impact on natural values and protected areas is a complex issue and will become increasingly so in the future, particularly in the face of competing demands for resources and conflicting priorities. For example, increased pressure for fuel reduction burns may conflict with community concerns about health issues related to smoke and other environmental issues.

Lightning strike was the cause of this wildfire in the Olga River valley in western Tasmania – the original ignition source is seen in the lower left of the image . Until the last few decades fire started by lightning was a rare phenomenon in western Tasmania . However, lightning is now the major cause of wildfire in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, and there are many fire-killed vegetation communities that are now at risk of increased fire frequencies. (Photo: Mick Brown) .

Invasive species

Climate change is expected to worsen the world’s invasive species problems (Dukes and Mooney 1999). It is predicted to impact on introduced and indigenous pathogens, parasites, predators and competitors. Climate change is already leading to an intensification of natural disturbances, with weeds and invasive pests often favoured by events such as floods and fires. Stochastic events, such as extreme weather events, have the potential to suddenly increase weed and pest species extent and impact (US EPA 2008). Increased CO2 levels may

lead to increased root development in weed species and in turn to greater resistance to herbicides, such as glyphosate (Ziska and Goins 2006). Some invasive species will be introduced or exotic species that do not currently occur in an area, but others will be native species that are migrating from their current distribution and are able to exploit the change in conditions.

The potential impacts of invasive species on Australia’s biodiversity were considered at a national workshop in 2006 (Low 2008). Many introduced species have life history traits that will potentially give them a competitive advantage under new disturbance regimes associated with climate change. Recent modelling by CSIRO (Scott et al . 2008) of 41 sleeper weeds (those invasive plants that have naturalised in a region but not yet increased their population size exponentially) and alert weeds (those that are a threat to the natural environment) suggest

13

that the south-east and south-west regions of Australia will be most at risk from these species. Climate change will result in a general shift southward of species, with tropical species shifting the greatest distances (over 1,000 km). Similar outcomes were identified from modelling for 25 weed species regarded as threats in Victoria (Steele et al . 2008). A number of the species identified in the Victorian study are of direct relevance to Tasmania. Species with more a southern distribution may become less of a threat compared to northern species as their potential range may actually shrink (Steele et al . 2008; Scott et al . 2008).

Given potential shifts in the ranges of introduced species and the risk that under a warmer climate scenario some species previously considered unsuited to Tasmania may thrive, changes to invasive species risk assessment procedures will be needed. Habitat preference modelling will need to take into account changes to the potential range for serious pests, and this in turn may result in a range of species that are currently imported into or sold within Tasmania being listed as declared weeds.

Aquatic and semi-aquatic systems are considered to be at high risk of potential impact from the interaction of climate change and invasive species (Bierwagen et al . 2008; Rahel and Olden 2008). Increased temperatures and CO2 are predicted to favour aquatic invasive species, in particular through

increases in biomass levels (US EPA 2008). River systems are particularly effective at transporting weed propagules, and when combined with naturally high rates of disturbance, are environments prone to weed invasion. Coastal ecosystems have naturally high disturbance regimes and these may be exacerbated by climate change. For example, increased coastal erosion associated with storm events and tidal surges could lead to favourable conditions for weed invasion. Similarly, the likely increase in intense rainfall events and greater periods of little or no rainfall will create erosion-invasion opportunities in all ecosystems.

In some alpine and subantarctic areas of Australia it has already been observed that increased temperatures and the associated reduction in the severity of winter weather is allowing animal pest species to inhabit previously unfavourable habitat (Dunlop and Brown 2008). Some animal pest problems that are seemingly worsened by climate change in Australia include fox and cat predation on endangered mountain pygmy possums, rabbits, foxes and wild horses invading the Australian Alps, rabbit damage on Macquarie Island, and grasshopper plagues in locations such as the Tasmanian midlands which previously had a wetter winter.

Pest invasion into the marine environment is also a significant potential issue. The southern range

extension of the native sea urchin (Centrostphanus rodgersii) from the mainland to Tasmania has been associated with increased southerly penetration of the warm East Australian Current, making it favourable habitat and leading to the formation of species-poor barrens where species-rich kelp beds once grew (Johnson et al . 2005). This is an example of a native species that has inhabited previously unfavourable habitat.

The native sea urchin (Centrostphanus rodgersii) is moving southwards as ocean temperatures warm (Photo: Scott Ling)


Decreased water flows and increased water temperature can foster algal bloom formation such as this occurrence of filamentous green algae in the Franklin River

in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area . Climate change may lead to a greater occurrence of these events, reducing the water quality in our rivers .

(Photo: David Spiers) .

Wildlife diseases and pathogens

Infectious agents and diseases are part of the ecosystem and their introduction and emergence have contributed to ecosystem stability and resilience for millions of years via the processes of natural selection. Disease incidence and prevalence relate to dynamic associations among the host, the agent of disease, and the environment. Changes or disturbance in any or all of these factors can alter ecosystem processes and allow the expression or intrusion of significant wildlife diseases (Gillin et al . 2002).

Factors contributing to the current increased rate of disease emergence in the Tasmanian context include climate change, habitat destruction and fragmentation, introduced animals, urbanisation, change in agricultural practices including widespread chemical usage, water distribution / availability and international migration / trade (Rose 2008).

Future potential impacts of climate change on wildlife disease expression include increases in:

- The distribution and biological behaviour of many arthropod vectors of disease such as mosquitoes and ticks (Daszak et al . 2000), increasing disease transmission.

- Temperature that will favour the survival of some pathogens, increasing rates of transmission,

resulting in more disease outbreaks. Many diseases are expected to become more lethal or spread more readily as the earth warms (Epstein 2001).

- Temperatures that will result in physiological changes within host species, altering their susceptibility / immunity to disease.

- Temperatures that will expand the range and increase the reproductive potential of rodents, increasing rodent-borne infectious diseases such as Leptospirosis and Hantavirus (McCarthy et al . 2001).

Thirteen new wildlife diseases have emerged in Australia since the mid-1990’s (Rose 2008), representing an unprecedented rate and reflecting a global trend. In the past 12 years Tasmania has experienced an increase in the rate of emergence of several significant wildlife diseases such as Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) and Chytridiomycosis that threaten the Tasmanian devil and native frogs respectively. There has been significant research internationally that links the occurrence of Chytridiomycosis to climate change (Pounds et al . 2006). In addition there has been a recent re-emergence of Psittacine Circoviral (Beak and Feather) Disease affecting Orange-bellied parrots.

The plant pathogen of potentially most concern under climate change scenarios in Tasmania is the root-rot soil pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi . It is currently limited in Tasmania to localities where soils warm sufficiently (presently below about 700m elevation) or hold enough moisture for at least part of the year (> 600 mm p.a.) for growth and reproduction to occur (Department of Environment and Heritage 2006). Climate change is likely to have a mixed effect on the extent of Phytophthora cinnamomi, depending on other factors such as soil type and ecophysiologic responses of the plant to increased CO2. The complex host, pathogen and soil microflora interactions may change with changing climate to either exacerbate or reduce disease incidence.

15

Climate change is likely to affect vectors such as mosquitoes, contributing to the transmission of disease

in wildlife and other species . (Photo: Tim Rudman)

Changes in rainfall are likely to decrease the activity of P . cinnamomi in the areas of the state where rainfall may fall below about 600 mm p.a. Higher temperatures may cause disease expression at higher altitudes than at present, particularly in the east of the state, and also in the far south-west from around 650m to over 800m elevation, the current lower boundary for alpine vegetation. Forest types currently too cool for disease development are also likely to experience P . cinnamomi infestation.

Land use change

Clearance and conversion of native vegetation to other land uses continues to be the largest single pressure on biodiversity values. The onset of climate change and the need for human adaptation responses will see the continuation of land use change in areas of high productivity. Similarly, the potential for the growth of the biofuel sector has been identified (Australian Government 2009). There is also likely to be an increase in commercial forest plantings as carbon sinks. Carbon plantings, particularly when undertaken as a component of strategic revegetation to establish landscape connectivity and using an appropriate mix of species, could be beneficial for natural systems, rather than a stressor.

Disease caused by the root-rot soil pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi in wet scrub in western Tasmania . Currently P . cinnamomi is restricted to open vegetation communities where soils are sufficiently warmed by the sun for it to survive . The cool soils under rainforest and wet forest communities provide refugia for species like white waratah (Agastachys odorata) that are eliminated on the adjacent buttongrass plains by disease . Climate change-induced soil warming potentially place these refugia at risk and expose numerous other forest species to threat from this insidious plant pathogen . (Photo: Tim Rudman) .


Tasmania contains a wide variety of rock types, landforms and soils (its geodiversity). These systems underpin a diverse suite of ecosystems within a mix of conservation reserves and productive landscapes. Climate change will affect geomorphic processes, landforms and soil systems directly, and as a consequence of people’s adaptation to the changing environment.

Key geomorphic systems most likely to be affected by climate change are fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands) and coastal/estuarine systems (particularly soft, sandy coasts). The potential impact of climate change on these systems and key values is discussed in more detail in Chapter 4 and Chapter 6 respectively. The effects of important

environmental drivers on earth surface processes, including temperature, rainfall, evapo-transpiration and storminess, will vary throughout the State. Climate change is considered most likely to affect those aspects of geodiversity associated with active, or recently active, land and soil-forming processes. Many of these contain a sedimentary record of geomorphic response to earlier climatic change that could be useful in refinement of local prediction of what is to come. Sea level rise will critically affect the coastal fringe and estuaries. Alpine geomorphic processes of solifluction, patterned ground, alpine lunettes,

nivation (collective name for the different processes that occur under a snow patch) are likely to become further limited in Tasmania. Other less extensive systems (including karst, aeolian and active hillslope processes) will also be affected, with locally important effects on landforms and geoconservation values.

Caves and cave fauna

Caves are very sensitive to changes in temperatures, rainfall and hydrology . A range of cave fauna including cave crickets and cave spiders, and glow worms, may be vulnerable to potential

impacts . (Photos: Rolan Eberhard) .

17

Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geodiversity and

Land Resource Value3.

Soils form the critical link between landforms and vegetation, and control production of surface runoff. A wide range of soils reflects Tasmania’s high geodiversity and will be variably affected by climate change, according to their location and inherent resilience.

The future distribution of vegetation communities will also be controlled by the response of geomorphic and soil processes to climate change. Conversely, direct effects of climate change on vegetation will alter rates of erosion and deposition in geomorphic systems.

Geoconservation values, including sensitive, rare or outstanding examples of landforms and soils, will also be variably threatened. Surficial deposits and other sediments which contain long-term environmental records of past climate change (e.g. peatlands, wetlands, lunettes, river terraces, cave and macrofossil deposits) will require special management.

Geomorphic systems in Tasmania are likely to respond to climate change in two ways:

1. incremental change - gradually increasing (or decreasing) rates of erosion and sedimentation, for example the gradual erosion of soft coasts in response to sea level rise; and/or

2. sudden change upon crossing of ‘geomorphic thresholds’ such as the erosive response of rivers to catastrophic loss of vegetation and soil in catchments (e.g. through wildfire)

Both of these response patterns are subject to varying lag times before the effects of climate change become apparent. Whilst the erosion of soft coasts is likely to be almost instantaneous following sea level rise, the geomorphic effects of reduced runoff in river systems is likely to be buffered more strongly, particularly where long-lived, resilient vegetation stabilises stream banks.

Knowledge of key earth surface processes currently active in Tasmania allows us to predict which systems are likely to be subject to incremental rather than critical, threshold-based change, and which are likely to respond with minimal lag times. This will allow the estimation of resilience of various land systems to climate change, and the development of appropriate strategies for adaptation.

Key values

Tasmania contains considerable climate, landscape and geological diversity. This diversity is reflected in a wide range of soils: shallow organosols, robust basaltic soils, wind-blown sands, and easily degraded sodic duplex soils. Each soil type is a reflection of its parent material, position in the landscape and age.

As with other elements of geodiversity, Tasmania is fortunate in having a well preserved suite of soils remaining in essentially natural condition, particularly in the centre, west and north-east. These play

an important role in regulating catchment runoff and supporting natural ecosystems within conservation reserves. Extensive peatlands in central and western Tasmania are one of Tasmania’s largest terrestrial carbon stores.

In other areas certain more fertile soil types have been targeted for agricultural development – the deep ferrosols (including deep basalt soils) of the north and north-west form the basis of highly productive intensive vegetable production. Where vegetation clearance was relatively easy, less robust soils (e.g. dermosols, sodosols and tenosols) have supported extensive grazing in the Midlands and south-east. These are now being progressively more heavily utilised under irrigated agriculture. Examples of these soil types surviving under a natural vegetation cover are now relatively scarce.

Tasmania has a significantly greater proportion of its land surface managed primarily for nature conservation than most other jurisdictions. Natural soils in these areas are intrinsically valuable, providing a critical link between natural physical and biological systems.

Natural soils provide valuable ecosystem services, controlling vegetation health, and moderating infiltration and runoff. Tasmania’s domestic, agricultural and industrial water catchments (including extensive hydro-electric

18 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geodiversity and Land Resource Values

developments) critically rely on an adequate quantity and quality of runoff, generally from reserved lands. Soils are important controls on runoff, particularly alpine and buttongrass moorlands, where extensive organosols moderate high and often intense rainfall.

Additionally, natural soils provide benchmarks for condition assessment in productive landscapes. These will become increasingly important as we seek to separate the effects of climate change from those of productive land uses on soil condition.

Impacts on key drivers

Management of natural soils will become increasingly important under climate change. Tasmania’s natural soils contain a large (but as yet unquantified) amount of organic carbon, sequestered over much of the Quaternary. Whilst parts of upland Tasmania were swept clean of soil in Quaternary glacial periods, unglaciated areas have maintained varying covers of natural vegetation, in some places building significant carbon stores. Soil carbon storage is most concentrated under relatively stable ecosystems, such as old forests and peatlands. These systems are common in western Tasmania, at varying elevations, due to the cool, wet and relatively reliable climate.

Buttongrass moorlands (found generally in the west and south-west) are important terrestrial carbon stores. They are also critical

in maintaining the runoff generating capacity of many catchments important for hydro-electricity generation. They are unusual soil systems, in that whilst decayed buttongrass vegetation has provided the main carbon source for these extensive organosols, they are also highly flammable. It is not unusual for the soils themselves to burn, or rapidly oxidise, during bushfires. Preliminary research suggests that organosols are currently at the climatic extent of their range, and that processes of deposition and oxidation of organic materials are delicately balanced (Whinam and Hope 2005).

It is difficult to predict the potential effects of climate change on soil moisture and surface runoff. However, the seasonality of changes will play an important role in determining the vulnerability of soils to climate change. The CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project has modelled climate change projections and the impacts on runoff to 2030 (CSIRO 2009). The data indicate that western Tasmania will have decreased runoff as will much of the north-east, with increases along parts of the east coast and in parts of inland eastern Tasmania. Indirect impacts on soils are also possible. For example, the frequency and intensity of bushfires and peat fires has increased in recent years, and have the potential to increase further, as average and extreme temperatures rise.

Management of fire will be critical in buttongrass moorland areas, for both maintaining carbon stores and runoff characteristics. Erosion, sediment transport and deposition in key western Tasmanian rivers and estuaries is primarily controlled by the health of organosols in these catchments.

Sphagnum peatlands cover an extensive area of the Central Highlands, and also play an important role in moderating runoff characteristics. Many of the state’s eastern hydro-electric developments rely on water from these catchments, as will proposed storages for Midlands irrigation projects.

As with similar areas in the NSW Snowy Mountains, and Victoria’s Bogong High Plains, management of peatlands will play a critical role in both nature conservation and water production. These flammable soils will also come under increasing risk from fire as climate change progresses, as evidenced by the 2003 and 2006 bushfires in Kosciuszko and Namadgi National Parks (Hope et al . 2005).

Lowland peatlands are found in many coastal locations, and are also being increasingly threatened by fire. In 2007 a particularly extensive fire in Lavinia State Reserve (King Island) burnt up to 2 metres of peat from the margins of an extensive coast paperbark swamp, following dessication of the soil. It is likely that similar events will increase under climate change scenarios.

19

Peat fires

The frequency and intensity of wildfires is likely to increase in the wet sclerophyll forests of eastern and northern Tasmania. Many of these are mixed forests with rainforest understorey, and in some cases they have not burned for centuries. Soil carbon stored under these forests is also at risk from fire. Regeneration of these forest types following fire has also been linked to significant decreases in surface runoff and streamflow. This will affect fluvial processes, and reduce the availability of water for human use.

An extensive assessment of soil condition in Tasmania has recently been completed for Tasmania (Kidd et al . 2009). This work established benchmark values for all major soil classifications under a range of land uses. Climate change effects that impact on soil carbon or microbial levels are of potential economic concern.

Soil organic carbon

Organic carbon is the link between

the chemical, physical and biological properties of soil, varying with soil type and land use.

Drought conditions contribute to a decline in soil organic carbon through loss of groundcover and/or loss of perenniality. Bare ground is susceptible to erosion by wind or water.

There is a direct relationship between soil carbon and soil structure. Land use practices or climate-induced responses that negatively impact on soil carbon may negatively impact on soil structure. These include loss of groundcover, solarisation of the soil (due to loss of groundcover) with damage to the soil ecosystem, and reduced infiltration of water due to an increase in water repellency (hydrophobicity).

Soil carbon and soil biodiversity are inextricably linked . The carbon cycle is driven by biological processes and biological processes are driven by soil carbon . Increased drying caused by climate change may interrupt these cycles . If these cycles are interrupted there is a risk of loss of groundcover caused by over-grazing or natural declines in plant viability . Loss of groundcover exposes the soil to erosion by wind and water . Soil carbon is quickly lost to erosion by wind as it is amongst the lighter soil fractions and is easily blown away . Erosion by water strips topsoil where the greatest concentration of soil carbon is found . Maintenance of groundcover is therefore critical to protection of our soil resources . Having a thick soil layer stuck to roots (the rhizosphere) is an indicator of a healthy soil biology . (Photo: Declan McDonald) .

Salinity

Given the importance of local groundwater flow systems to salinity expression in Tasmania, strategies to address groundwater levels are most likely to positively address this risk. Such strategies include large-scale revegetation. However, for large-scale revegetation to be effective it must be planned and sited very

20 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geodiversity and Land Resource Values

Peat destruction from wildfire on King Island. Lavinia State Reserve had two wildfires within six years, destroying peat

that was metres thick and thousands of years old . This area was originally under Melaleuca ericifolia scrub .

(Photo: Richard Schahinger) .

carefully if it is not to exacerbate reductions in water yield and consequent knock-on environmental impacts (Campbell 2008).

Climate change impacts on soil salinity will be direct and indirect, and will relate to:

- Windblown salts of oceanic origin

- Salt deposits of geological origins- Irrigation- Land clearing- Lower rainfall- Natural saline discharge patterns

Erosion and sedimentation

Soil formation rates are highly variable but are in the order of <0.5 Mg/Ha/yr from bedrock such as basalt (Edwards 1993).

Climate change impacts on soil erosion will be direct and indirect, and will relate to:

- Changes in land use- Increased rainfall intensity- Loss of groundcover due to

drought- Increased windstorm intensity- Exposure of sodic soils- Loss of riparian vegetationContinued or sustained reduction in annual rainfall, particularly in the southern part of the state will have two main impacts on soil erosion. Loss of groundcover caused by drought or overgrazing may bare the soil and increase the risk of erosion by wind or water. Soil lost to wind

erosion contains a high proportion of

organic carbon. This is due to the higher levels of soil carbon in the upper soil layers and its relative lightness. Soil lost to water erosion is rapidly transported into waterways where it contributes to turbidity and sedimentation of waterways. Loss of groundcover on sodic soils renders them vulnerable to dispersion and suspension in water bodies.

Acid sulphate soils

Issues relating to the occurrence and management of acid sulphate soils are currently being investigated in Tasmania. This work is showing that acid sulphate soils (ASS) are more widely spread than previously anticipated.

Climate change impacts on acid sulphate soils will be direct and indirect and will relate to:

- Acid sediments of geological origins

- Developments in coastal locations

- Increased drainage of agricultural land, in particular dairying in the north and north-west of the state

- Falling groundwater levels

Increased development pressures on the coastal zone may result in an expansion of urban footprints into areas with acid sulphate soils. Exposed or excavated ASS may leach strong acids into waterways with toxic impacts on aquatic life and riparian vegetation.

In parts of South Australia, dropping groundwater levels are exposing ASS to oxidation with the consequent release of sulfuric acid into the environment. The potential for this exists wherever ASS exist in Tasmania. Areas of particular risk include many Ramsar wetlands. Water extractions from rivers and creeks that supply coastal wetlands will need careful management.

Drying landscapes due to climate change may increase the drying of lakes and wetlands, which could cause the exposure of previously waterlogged and harmless acid sulfate soils . Oxidation of acid sulfate soils can lead to the formation and release of sulfuric acid . The release of significant quantities of acid can rapidly lower pH values of soil and drainage water . If left untreated this can result in a range of environmental, engineering, infrastructure and health related impacts . Increased monitoring of wetlands likely to contain acid sulfate soils is required in drying landscapes . (photo: Declan McDonald) .

21

Native pastures in the Midlands during the recent drought . Extreme rainfall events, exacerbated by drought, can lead to increased runoff, soil erosion and mudslides . These may become more frequent in the future . (Photo: Louise Gilfedder) .

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) identified that inland aquatic freshwater ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, largely through changes in hydrology from changed precipitation (Kundzewicz et al . 2007). Coastal wetlands have been identified as particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, and this in turn impacts on their carbon storage capacity. IPCC AR4 also identified that as a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems in southern and eastern Australia are projected to intensify by 2030.

Tasmania’s freshwater environments are underpinned by a diversity of biophysical processes, functions and values. Geological structures, geomorphic processes and controls, hydrological processes, riparian and aquatic vegetation, fish and macroinvertebrates are some of the more readily identifiable components that make up freshwater ecosystems. These can be found in both lentic (lake, pond and swamp) environments and lotic (stream, river and spring) environments.

In many parts of Tasmania, land use activities have already impacted upon these environments significantly. Flow regimes have been changed, vegetation cleared, river channels altered, wetlands converted, water quality reduced and habitat lost. The interaction between these human

impacts and the effects of climate change may be most strongly felt in lotic systems, producing threshold responses that each stress alone would not produce (CCSP 2009). There are extensive areas within the reserve system and headwater areas that still contain largely intact and representative examples of Tasmania’s freshwater environments.

In Tasmania warmer temperatures, increased wind and changing rainfall patterns are projected to impact on water availability at a time when much of Tasmania has already experienced an extended period of drought (Tasmanian Climate Change Office 2008). Significant variations in the pattern and location of rainfall over time will have a major impact on sensitive ecosystems, particularly freshwater ecosystems.

Key values

Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems contain an extensive network of rivers, streams and wetland environments, which also include lakes, swamps and tarns. Many of these ecosystems have internationally and nationally significant scientific and biological values, with 10 Ramsar and 86 wetlands listed on the national Directory of Important Wetlands of Australia (DIWA). A number of the Ramsar wetlands are part of the estuarine component of rivers, and several DIWA wetlands occur within rivers (Blackhall et al . 1996) and are therefore affected by the health of those river systems.

Tasmania’s freshwater biophysical values have been compiled into the Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystem Values (CFEV) database, and this provides a reference point from which priority-based management and conservation decisions on freshwater ecosystems can be developed.

Streams and rivers (lotic environments)

Rivers are distinct environments that connect parts of the landscape and perform a range of different biophysical functions. In highly altered landscapes, such as agricultural regions, rivers and associated riparian corridors may be the only remaining areas providing some form of ecological function. There are approximately 157,000 km of rivers in Tasmania of which 21% are considered to have a high to very high Integrated Conservation Value (DPIW 2008a). Fifty-two percent of the total length of Tasmanian rivers occurs in reserves within the state. The remaining stream length occurs in other public land (18%) and other private land (30%). Whilst there is a relatively high proportion of river length in reserves, it should be noted that a number of the reserved areas cover only part of a river’s length.

The highly sinuous lowland streams south of Macquarie Harbour and meandering and glacially controlled rivers on the Central Plateau and Midlands broadwater sequences represent important and rare examples of Tasmania’s fluvial

22 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems 4.

systems. Entire, pristine catchments (such as the New and Davey Rivers) are very rare in south-eastern Australia. Their geomorphological and biological importance contributes to the international significance of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area.

Many fluvial landforms preserve evidence of catchment responses to past, natural climatic variations over the last 2 million years. Meander cutoffs and wetlands preserve long pollen records, providing palaeobotanical information. Terrace flights, alluvial fans, and sediments stored in subsurface karstic stream systems may be studied to interpret relationships between climate and Earth surface processes throughout the Quaternary. Examples include correlation of dated, relict meander scrolls preserved on terraces, and the calibre of relict terrace and fan sediments with past streamflow and sediment dynamics. Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of these responses may be used to underpin predictions of future catchment responses under climate change scenarios.

Wetlands and lakes (lentic environments)

Tasmania is characterised by high precipitation that makes it rich in freshwater environments, with thousands of lakes and tarns in the mountainous west, and deflation basins in the Midlands and the east associated with past glaciations and the intervening periods of aridity

(Kirkpatrick and Tyler 1988).

Wetlands provide important biophysical functions and habitat within Tasmania’s landscape. They also provide an indication of past climatic conditions, such as the presence of aeolian features that formed in colder, drier climates. As with rivers they occur across a wide range of environments and their condition reflects the different land uses and pressures. The CFEV database lists 20,597 wetlands that cover an area of 206,800 ha (based on LIST and TASVEG data sources) in Tasmania (DPIW 2008a). Whilst this number includes anthropogenic wetlands and minor depressions, it does reflect the relative importance wetlands play across Tasmanian landscapes.

Almost 60% of the wetlands identified in CFEV are regarded as having a high to very high Integrated Conservation Value which infers they may contain rare biological or physical characteristics, special values or both. Sixty percent of the wetlands occur in reserves. The remaining wetlands occur on other private land (26%) and other public land (14%). Tasmania’s wetlands contain a high proportion of endemic species (Bowling et al . 1993; Kirkpatrick and Tyler 1988), as well as a disproportionate percentage of Tasmania’s flowering plant species (Kirkpatrick and Harris 1999).

Waterbodies in Tasmania, which include lakes and tarns, cover 137,000 ha representing 1,346

waterbodies (DPIW 2008a). The waterbodies include Lake St. Clair, the deepest lake in Australia, and Australia’s largest natural permanent waterbody, Great Lake. Fifty-five percent of the area of waterbodies occurs in reserves. The remaining area of waterbodies occurs on other public land (44%) and other private land (1%). Freshwater environments (rivers, wetlands, lakes, karst) provide habitat for at least 123 threatened flora species and 103 threatened fauna species (DPIW 2008b). This includes 9 flora species and 12 fauna species listed on the EPBC Act.

The highland aquatic habitats of western Tasmania, including an array of lakes, tarns, streams and rivers, represent a highly diverse assemblage of limnological and biological environments with few analogues elsewhere in Australia (Fulton et al . 1993; Ponder et al . 1993). A high proportion of Tasmania’s wetlands occur on the Central Plateau, and significant parts of that region can be regarded as being in near pristine condition. Conservation priorities for the Central Highlands include a number of unique freshwater values such as threatened Galaxias and Paragalaxias species and Great Lake aquatic fauna. The Eastern half of the Plateau has some of the most distinct wetland communities in Tasmania (Kirkpatrick and Harwood 1983), and high levels of endemism (flora and invertebrates, including aquatic species). The crustacean, insect and fish communities of Great Lake

23

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems

contain a substantial endemic and threatened element (Australian Natural Resources Atlas http://www.anra.gov.au).

North-west Tasmania has extensive swamp forests, and also nationally significant swamps that have developed on karst landscape drainage features, such as sinkholes or dolines. These subterranean wetlands support a diverse fauna that is often distinct from that of surface waters. Twelve threatened fauna species are recorded for karst environments (DPIW 2008b). Poljes are large karstic depressions up to several kilometres across, and the poljes at Mole Creek and Dismal Swamp are the best developed in Australia.

Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems are considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change, with some of the potential changes shown in Table 4.1. They have played a central role in the development of the island from the time of European arrival and consequently have experienced significant change, even

in areas that

have been

protected.

Relationships between

rainfall and evapo-transpiration

vary considerably across the state. Combined

with vegetation, these factors control patterns of erosion and sediment flux throughout catchments, and the corresponding form of river channels (Jerie et al . 2003). For many parts of Tasmania, the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater ecosystems need to be considered in the context of the many pressures they currently experience.

In temperate Tasmania, the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns and evapo-transpiration and the flow on effect for fire and vegetation communities have the potential to significantly alter the form and processes of fluvial systems (Brierley and Fryirs 2005). Effects will be most strongly observed in rates of hillslope erosion, channel bed and bank erosion (and potentially contraction), and deposition rates on floodplains and in estuaries. Key fluvial system drivers will vary considerably across Tasmania in response to climate change, because of the diverse nature of fluvial landscapes and spatial differences in average and instantaneous runoff.

The key issues for the ecological

health of freshwater systems under a changing climate scenario will be water quantity and temperature change. Water quantity influences a range of potential issues: water quality, water temperature, maintenance of habitat, channel-forming and maintenance processes, ecological disturbance processes and sustaining aquatic and riparian flora and fauna. Rainfall elasticity is about 2-3.5, that is, a 10% reduction in rainfall equates to a 20-30% decrease in flows (Chiew 2007 and 2009). Stream gauge sites in Tasmania show a 15-30% reduction in stream flow over the last 15 years compared to historic records. Changes in seasonal patterns will also alter the hydrologic characteristics of aquatic systems. Whilst there may be an overall decline in annual streamflows under drier climate scenarios, a more seasonal pattern may lead to larger and more damaging flows in certain times of the year.

Climate change impacts on inland aquatic ecosystems will range from the direct effects of the rise in temperature and CO2 concentration to indirect effects through alterations in hydrology resulting from changes in precipitation (Cubasch et al . 2001; Lemke et al . 2007; Meehl et al . 2007). Changes in physical climate and hydrology will also be strongly coupled with terrestrial ecosystems, which both respond to and modulate hydro-climatic fluxes and states (Lettenmaier et al . 2008).

24

The western highlands of Tasmania contain an array of lakes, tarns, streams and rivers that represent a highly diverse

and unique assemblage of limnological and biological environments . These alpine tarns and lakes are

highly vulnerable to decreased rainfall and increased temperatures . (Photo: Tom Bennett) .

The potential effects resulting from decreased water flows include a decline in water quality and elevated water temperature, and the development of small, warm,

unconnected pools of water. The increased water temperature in turn could foster algal bloom formation. There may also be an increase in salinity due to lack of freshwater

inflow and higher evaporation rates, and an increased risk of acid sulphate soils exposed through the drying of lakes and wetlands.

Physical climate change indicator

Potential impact

Higher temperatures

Increased water temperatures, reductions in dissolved oxygen levels

Increased growth in freshwater algae

Areas of high water temperature may become a barrier to migration for some aquatic species.

Conditions favour aquatic weeds and some introduced fauna. Nuisance plant growth (native/non-native) will be encouraged.

Loss of plant and animal species with narrow temperature ranges (stenothermic); Domination by species with broad temperature ranges (eurythermic)

Increased incidence of algal blooms associated with increased water temperatures

Increased temperature combined with reduced rainfall will affect freshwater ecosystems by impacting on habitat for freshwater crayfish and native fish species

Changes in precipitation

Changes in hydrology, species composition and ecological productivity

Reduced s tream flow, reduced capacity to transport sediment and other channel material.

A reduction in stream capacity to transport sediment, leading to bed aggradation and bank erosion.

Insufficient flows to support particular species, including preventing aquatic species from migrating to more suitable habitat.

Decreased summer rain and increased temperatures could change some streams from permanent to ephemeral or increase the ephemerality of ephemeral streams.

Increased summer rains will impact on sedimentation rates and affect freshwater habitat quality

Seasonal patterns of wetland species disrupted

Reductions in runoff

Increased exposure to predators when aquatic organisms are confined to pools.

Increased evaporation, leading to drying out of wetlands, increased salinity, and exposure of acid sulphate soils

Intense, seasonal rainfall events that lead to channel and stream bank erosion and flushing of organic material and woody debris from the stream.

Increased CO2Increased Net Primary Productivity, which may lead to negative impacts such as increased algal blooms

Sea level rise Coastal wetlands are susceptible to inundation or increased salinity through saltwater intrusion

Interactive effectsLand use change and water consumption patterns will intensify climate change impacts on wetlands and rivers.

25

Table 4 .1 Biophysical processes in freshwater ecosystems that are likely to be impacted by climate change .

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems


Streams and rivers (lotic environments)

Reductions in streamflow will be largely influenced by the two key drivers - changes in rainfall patterns and the need to develop water resources as a consequence of reductions in rainfall. The impacts of these two drivers can be interrelated and complex. Stream regulation and abstractions may compound the impacts of climate change by further limiting the amount of flows available for the environment. Dams and other physical barriers may limit the capacity of aquatic species to migrate to more suitable habitats if, for example, water temperatures exceed tolerance levels.

There is uncertainty about future rainfall patterns at a national scale (Steffen et al . 2009) and projections suggest rainfall patterns across Tasmania will vary on a regional basis. Increased rainfall has been projected for the west and central areas, and a reduction in the north-east by 2040 (McIntosh et al . 2005). The Climate Futures for Tasmania Project is currently deriving new climate projections, including regional projections, due to be released in 2010. Reductions in rainfall and runoff have the potential to reduce the amount of suitable habitat available for aquatic species as streamflows decline and parts of river systems are either reduced to pools or dry up.

Increased water temperature is a problem which will be compounded by increasing temperature due to climate change, and water temperatures may rise to lethal levels for a number of organisms. Pools are susceptible to warm water temperatures, which in turn leads to a drop in dissolved oxygen. Whilst a number of Tasmania’s native fish have relatively wide temperature tolerances, other species, such as the giant freshwater crayfish require a stable thermal regime of relatively low water temperature (Threatened Species Section 2006).

The impact of sediments, nutrients and pollutants would be enhanced in these shallow water situations, especially where rivers are reduced to a series of disconnected pools. This, combined with the threat of elevated temperatures, may result in highly stressed habitat conditions favouring species with very wide tolerances and disadvantaging more sensitive species.

A prolonged or regular reduction in stream flows would lead to the stream channel becoming disconnected from its floodplain. Locally this will affect riparian vegetation as groundwater levels decline, causing riparian vegetation to either shift or in worst case scenarios to be lost. This in turn will remove habitat, sources of organic material and lead to streambank erosion. Overbank flows are important for replenishing the floodplain and wetlands with water and organic material, and the

associated disturbance can be an important germination trigger.

Rainfall patterns are likely to become more seasonal, and when it does rain, rainfall is likely to be more intense (CSIRO 2007; Steffen et al . 2009). A change in the flood regime, with a reduction in annual floods, but an increase in frequency of larger floods will alter disturbance regimes, affecting important germination triggers. More frequent, larger floods will impact on aquatic habitats by scouring the streambed, displacing woody debris, and flushing organic matter downstream (Poff et al . 2002). Sediments derived from streambank erosion and hillslopes can cover streambeds, removing habitat and smothering the eggs of a number of aquatic organisms (Prosser et al . 1999). An increase in the frequency of more intense floods will make it very difficult for habitat to recover and there may be local extinctions of aquatic species. It is important to note that climate change may have other less obvious impacts that will contribute to higher rates of erosion, including changes to riparian plant canopies, litter cover, soil moisture (and therefore infiltration and runoff ratios), soil erodibility due to decreases in organic matter and changes in land use (Kundzewicz et al . 2007).

26

Changes in precipitation and temperature will impact on the hydrology, species composition and ecological productivity of Tasmania’s rivers,

particularly in periods of low flow. Reduced stream flow may lead to a reduced capacity to transport sediment and other channel material, and

extreme rainfall events may lead to channel and stream bank erosion . (Photo: Louise Gilfedder) .

Wetlands and lakes (lentic environments)

Water quantity and temperature are the key climate change drivers that will potentially impact on fluvial systems, wetlands and lakes. Wetlands receive water from three main sources (precipitation, surface flow and groundwater), and climate change will affect these processes in different ways (Table 4.1). Wetlands that rely on precipitation for water may be the most affected by changing rainfall patterns, whilst those reliant on groundwater may be the most resilient (Poff et al . 2002). In Tasmania, many wetlands receive water from both rainfall and groundwater, and understanding the balance between these two sources will be crucial to predicting the impact of climate change. Wetlands linked in some way to river channels will be directly affected by changes in the flow regimes for those rivers. Declining streamflows and longer periods between overbank flows may lead to increased dry periods for wetlands. The more intense floods may scour the bed of the wetland and flush organic matter and organisms out of the wetland.

Tasmania’s lakes and their tributaries provide habitat for many aquatic species, including endemic fish such as saddled and golden galaxias and the Arthurs, Great Lake, western and Shannon paragalaxias. A number of these lakes are already in use for hydro generation and may come under further pressure if declining rainfall significantly reduces

lake levels. Riparian vegetation surrounding the lakes will die back if lake levels and associated groundwater drop for extended periods of time.

Tasmania has important coastal wetland communities, particularly in the Tasmanian Wilderness WHA. Freshwater wetlands close to sea level are at risk from saline groundwater intrusion and saltwater intrusion through the breaching of barrier systems and sandbars (Steffen et al . 2009). Nine of Tasmania’s ten Ramsar wetlands of international importance are in coastal and estuarine environments, and thus are at risk of sea level rise, saltwater intrusion into freshwater systems, and the effects of storm surges. Similarly, the Directory of Important Wetlands in Australia (DIWA) lists 89 nationally significant wetlands in Tasmania (Blackhall 1996) and analysis of types and risks indicates that 55 of these are coastal and are at risk of inundation. Almost 40% of the area of the TASVEG communities that, when combined, represent Tasmania’s freshwater wetlands, are at less than 5m elevation, and thus vulnerable to storm surges with predicted sea level rise.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that changes in the amount and timing of rain, and increased evaporation have led to wetlands experiencing extended dry periods. The driest parts of Tasmania have extensive wetlands, including saline lakes, but after two centuries of settlement and agriculture many have been drained or inundated (Fensham and Kirkpatrick 1989). Wetlands in the Midlands and south-east have been observed to fill quickly following intense rainfall events, but then experience extended dry periods through below average rainfall periods. Some of the wetlands in the Midlands have experienced dry periods of up to 30 years or more. Some wetlands in the east of

27

Tasmania has a rich freshwater crayfish fauna with approximately 37 species in 4 genera .

The burrowing crayfish of the genus Engaeus are very specialised crayfish living in tunnel

systems in muddy banks, seepages and peaty areas. Burnie burrowing crayfish (Engaeus

yabbimunna) (Photo: Niall Doran) .

Tasmania have

changed from a pattern of winter-wet and summer-dry to being dry for extended periods (S. Blackhall pers com.).

Increased water temperatures in both wetland and lacustrine environments, especially when combined with reduced water levels, will affect a range of aquatic species where thresholds are exceeded. Lakes in Tasmania are characterised by different types of thermal stratification, and increasing temperatures and associated changes to the warming and cooling processes of those lakes may alter the timing and nature of that stratification.

The seasonal migration patterns of wetland species are predicted to be interrupted by climate change, and there is already evidence in Tasmania of this phenomenon. The evaporation of wetlands has had a significant impact on migratory birds. There is reduced waterbird breeding activity and success because adults fail to breed or water evaporates before young reach the flying stage. For example, Lake Dulverton is the only known breeding site of the

great-crested grebe and it has been dry for most

of the period since the 1990’s. It is not known if this

species continues to breed in Tasmania (S. Blackhall pers

com. 2009). Birds retreat from dry inland wetlands to coastal estuarine systems but these are increasingly more saline, and may not be valuable refuges in the future.

The deep permanent freshwater marshes on the West Coast and King Island are also important Tasmanian wetland systems. The Lavinia Marshes on King Island have suffered two recent catastrophic fires in quick succession (2001 and 2007), with up to two metres of irreplaceable peat soils destroyed over large areas. This is likely to change local hydrology and lead to long term impacts to the associated wetlands (RMC 2007). These fires were the result of dry lightning strikes, which evidence suggests are occurring more frequently in Tasmania, along with unseasonal dry periods that had allowed the marshes to dry out.

Tasmania’s swamp forests, with almost 40% of the mapped extent of coast paperbark (Melaleuca ericifolia) swamp forest below 5m elevation, are another freshwater ecosystem that will be potentially affected by climate change and associated sea level rise. These swamp forests are vulnerable to salty groundwater intrusion and storm surges, resulting from predicted sea level rises. The changes in hydrology that will be brought about by climate change

also have the potential to significantly impact on karstic features.

A major issue for the future management of Tasmanian wetland and freshwater aquatic systems under increasing pressure from climate change and ongoing drought is how to balance the environmental and social values of water consumption. For example, farmers and irrigators are under increasing pressure to reduce their water use and to maintain environmental flows in rivers, whilst natural wetland and freshwater aquatic ecosystems are under pressure from reduced effective precipitation. Changes to the way that water is transferred within and between catchments through irrigation schemes will have the potential to both directly and indirectly affect the biophysical health and condition of rivers, lakes and wetlands.

The green and gold frog (Litoria raniformis) is threatened in Tasmania . Chytridiomycosis is an infectious disease of amphibians, and it has been linked to dramatic population declines or even extinctions of amphibian species in many countries, including Australia. There has been significant research internationally that links the occurrence of Chytridiomycosis to climate change . (Photo: DPIPWE Collection) .

28

Wetlands are one of the ecosystem types predicted to be highly sensitive to the impacts

of climate change . (Photo: Oberon Carter) .

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s

Terrestrial Biodiversity5.Biodiversity is important to the economic and cultural welfare of Tasmania. The state abounds in rich wildlife and iconic species such as the Tasmanian devil, the bluegum that is the state’s floral emblem, and the deciduous beech that brings tourists and photographers to our state every autumn. Biodiversity is the diversity of species, populations, genes, plant and animal communities and ecosystems. Biodiversity provides stability and productivity of our natural systems (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005), and is an important “life support system” for the planet. It underpins ecological processes that form the environment on which all organisms depend, providing ecosystem services such as clean air and water, and the food and fibres on which we are reliant.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4 2007) concluded that climate change will have impacts on many aspects of biodiversity including impacts on ecosystems, their component species and associated genetic diversity, and on ecological interactions. It also identified that biodiversity is the most vulnerable sector for Australia and New Zealand to the impacts of climate change, with greater risks than sectors such as agriculture and forestry, health, tourism and major infrastructure.

The first national assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s terrestrial biodiversity to climate change has

been recently produced (Steffen et al . 2009). It identified iconic natural areas such as south-west Western Australia, the Australian Alps, the Queensland Wet tropics and Kakadu wetlands as highly vulnerable to climate change. The report provides an excellent overview of how climate change has already affected Australia’s biodiversity and how it may potentially affect it in the future. A national assessment of the impact of climate change on marine systems, including marine biodiversity, has also been undertaken (Hobday et al . 2006).

This preliminary assessment of the potential impact of climate change on Tasmania’s terrestrial biodiversity is undertaken at the major ecosystem level, and the potential impact on species is also considered. This assessment has been undertaken by considering the impact of the key drivers (increased CO2, changed temperature and precipitation, and extreme events) on basic ecological and biological responses of species and ecosystems. This was done with the knowledge that the responses of species and ecosystems may be different due to current and future changes in the basic environment, and recognising that the rate of change has not been previously experienced (Steffen et al . 2009).

How Tasmania’s terrestrial biodiversity will be impacted by climate change is largely unknown. There have been many observational records over the past few decades of changes at the species and

ecosystem levels that are consistent with a climate signal but it is very difficult to attribute these changes to climate change in the absence of long-term studies.

The aim of this section is to identify key vulnerabilities of Tasmanian terrestrial biodiversity to climate change. Potential impacts at the major ecosystem level may be on ecosystem services rather than the natural values per se, and these interactions with physical and ecosystem processes are not addressed in detail.

Key values

Tasmania has globally and nationally significant natural values, which are also culturally and scientifically important. Globally significant ecosystems in Tasmania include alpine communities, temperate rainforests and tall eucalypt forests, buttongrass moorlands, high-energy coastal systems (Balmer et al . 2004) and the Port Davey marine and estuarine ecosystem (Edgar et al . 2007) (see Chapters 3 and 6). A number of areas are recognised as supporting internationally important natural heritage, including the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Macquarie Island World Heritage Area, ten internationally significant Ramsar-listed wetlands, and wetlands and marine environments providing breeding habitat for a number of migratory terrestrial and marine migratory species that are protected under international conventions.

29


In general Tasmania is a mountainous state with high topographic relief. This may provide microhabitats that act as refugia or as new sites open for colonisation for species or communities to move into. The impact of climate change is predicted to vary between regions. Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) projections (in preparation) indicate

the Central Highlands region will experience the most change.

Predicting the impact of climate change on Tasmania’s biodiversity is complicated by a range of issues including the uncertainty about the severity and direction of variation in the basic physical and chemical factors such as CO2 concentrations, temperature, rainfall and ocean acidity. It can be difficult to attribute

environmental change to a single cause, and climate change will interact with other existing threats or stressors to biodiversity (see Chapter 2). Nevertheless, there have been recent changes to species and ecosystems that Australian scientists have identified have a ‘climate signal’ (Hughes 2000, 2003; Chambers et al . 2005; Steffen et al . 2009).

30 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity

Table 5 .1 Physical processes in major ecosystems likely to be impacted by climate change .

Physical climate change indicator Potential impact

Increased temperature

Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures will affect physiology of some plant species

Increase in altitudinal range of Phytophthora cinnamomi

Many of the dominant Eucalyptus species in Tasmania’s forests have a restricted climatic and geographic range and may be susceptible to increased temperatures

May lead to an advance in the onset of spring, delay in autumn, and increased out-of-season events such as winter flowering

May lead to increase in treeline

Reduced precipitation

Reduced flow in rivers, drying of wetlands

Oxidisation of peatlands, reduction in rate of peat accumulation in buttongrass moorlands and Sphagnum peatlands

Increased stress of species currently at the limits of climate tolerance, e.g. Eucalyptus gunnii, Sphagnum species

Decreased regeneration rates in dry eucalypt forests

Reduced incidence of frosts

Loss of alpine plant species that require frost for germination

Uphill movement of treeline

Increase in woody species in frost hollows

Loss of specialised fjaeldmark communities

Reduced snowlie Loss of specialised snowpatch communities such as cushion moorlands

Changed seasonality of rainfall

Widespread dieback of eucalypt species

Breeding seasons of some mammals that are related to spring rainfall may change if rainfall patterns change

Changes in the ratio of C3 to C4 plant species

Changes in the secondary metabolites such as tannins and phenolics will affect palatability and nutrient value of plants to browsers

Geology and geomorphology play a fundamental role in determining vegetation distribution. The future distribution of vegetation communities will also be controlled by the response of geomorphic and soil processes to climate change. Conversely, direct effects of climate change on vegetation will alter rates of erosion and deposition in geomorphic systems. Key geomorphic systems most likely to

be affected by climate change are fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands) and coastal/estuarine systems (particularly soft, sandy coasts). The effects of important environmental drivers on earth surface processes, including temperature, rainfall, evapo-transpiration and storminess, will vary statewide. Sea level rise will critically affect the coastal fringe and estuaries. Other less extensive systems (including karst, aeolian

and active hillslope processes) will also be affected, with locally important effects on landforms and geoconservation values.

Some of the potential physical processes that are likely to be impacted by predicted climate change and their possible impacts on major ecosystem types are summarised in Table 5.1.

31

Physical climate change indicator Potential impact

Increased CO2

Increased productivity in forests

Changes in phenology of plant species

Woody “thickening” of vegetation

Expansion of rainforest into montane grasslands and eucalypt communities

Sea level rise and storm surges

Impact on dry coastal ecosystems and coastal wetlands, particularly where there is no potential for upslope expansion and movement

Saltwater intrusion into freshwater wetlands

Near-coastal riparian Huon pine forests are sensitive to saltwater intrusion

Interactive effects

Alpine ecosystems negatively impacted by increased soil evaporation with increased temperature

Possible increase in myrtle wilt

Changes to flowering season with consequent impacts for pollinators and successful pollination

Increased temperature and increased CO2 may lead to increased growth rates and resultant higher fuel loads

Increased fire frequency will affect age structure of forests and habitat availability

Extreme events

Loss of fire-sensitive species from increased number and intensity of bushfires

Increased frequency and severity of bushfires may lead to the loss of major ecosystem types where dominant tree species such as Eucalyptus globulus, Eucalyptus regnans and Athrotaxis are fire-killed

The potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity at the species and the major ecosystem level are considered in the following sections, but it should be noted that the responses to climate change will be complex and variable. Climate change will not play out evenly across the state and there will be regional differences in the vulnerability of ecosystems and natural values.

Ecosystem level responses

Climate change will lead to ecosystem changes, including transformed and novel ecosystems for which there are no current analogues, and local species extinctions (Dunlop and Brown 2008). There will also be associated effects on ecosystem processes which will in turn affect the ecosystem services provided to society. Changed climate parameters such as decreased rainfall and increased temperature, and increased incidence of extreme events such as increased frequency and incidence of drought and fire, will variably impact on terrestrial biodiversity in different regions in Tasmania. As a mountainous state with strong climatic gradients, Tasmania is considered to be somewhat buffered from the predicted impacts of climate change.

Increased shrub and tree invasion could lead to significantly transformed alpine ecosystems. Tasmanian moorlands and peatlands are potentially one of the most

vulnerable ecosystems, and moorland fauna such as the broad-toothed rat and burrowing crayfish are sensitive to changes in moorland habitats. Alpine ecosystems are also highly vulnerable, particularly to altered fire regimes. Alpine communities on north-eastern mountains such as Ben Lomond and Mt Arthur, and relict rainforest patches on protected gullies on the east coast are considered to be highly vulnerable. The Climate Futures for Tasmania Project is currently deriving new Tasmanian climate projections to be released in 2010. They will enable regional projections to be developed.

Alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystems

Australian alpine environments have been identified as one of the most sensitive Australian environments to the potential impacts of climate change, with a high risk of biodiversity loss predicted by 2020 (Green and Pickering 2002; Hennessey et al . 2007). Endemic alpine species have been identified as having a disproportionately high vulnerability to climate change (Pauli et al . 2003), with limited capacity to adapt (Fischlin et al . 2007). In particular the predicted incidence of extreme events such as wildfire and drought could have a very significant impact.


Figure 5 .1 Distribution of Tasmania’s alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystem, a total extent of 168,000 hectares .

Tasmania has more than half of Australia’s alpine and treeless subalpine vegetation, mostly within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (Balmer and Whinam 1991). The variable climate, topography, geology and edaphic conditions give rise to a wider range of environmental conditions within Tasmania’s high country than within the Australian Alps (Kirkpatrick and Bridle 1998, 1999).

Alpine and highland treeless ecosystems in Tasmania include treeless vegetation communities that occur within the alpine zone where the growth of trees is impeded by climatic factors (Harris and Kitchener 2005). The altitude above which trees cannot survive varies between approximately 700 m in the south-west to over 1,400 m in the north-east highlands. Highland treeless and alpine communities include highland native grasslands and moorlands, coniferous alpine heathlands, cushion moorlands, alpine and subalpine heaths, sedgelands and herblands.

Key values of alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystems

The Tasmanian alpine ecosystem, like many mountain regions of the world, is distinguished by high vascular plant diversity and endemic richness (Kirkpatrick and Brown1984). The bolster heaths or cushion communities so characteristic of Tasmania’s high country exhibit globally exceptional levels of endemism and diversity, with six

endemic species of cushion shrubs. The diversity of Tasmanian alpine conifers (seven species from six genera and two families) is very high, and is rich in primitive and relict species.

Potential impacts on alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystems

All of Tasmania’s alpine regions are projected to be warmer (Grose et al . 2010), with reduced snowlie and depth (McIntosh et al . 2005). Much of the alpine country in Tasmania is in central Tasmania which may experience greater warming and drying in the next few decades than other Tasmanian regions (McIntosh et al . 2005; Grose et al . 2010).

Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to impact directly on alpine ecosystems, with increased risk of fire under warmer and drier climate scenarios being of particular concern. Alpine conifers are restricted (Balmer et al . 2004) and particularly sensitive to fire (Jackson 1999). One-third of King Billy pine populations have been eliminated by fire in the 100 years to 1988 (Brown 1988). More intense

and more

frequent fires may also affect fire-sensitive plant species in the Tasmanian Wilderness WHA, including pencil pine, myrtle beech, deciduous beech, and King Billy pine. Research has demonstrated an upward shift of alpine plant species in the northern hemisphere (e.g. Walther et al . 2005), and increased evapotranspiration rates leading to drought where warmer and drier conditions are predicted (e.g. Pederson et al . 2006). Increasing temperature is likely to lead to an increase in tree species in the alpine ecosystem, with increased germination and seedling survival observed in many species in cold environments including the Australian Alps (Hughes 2000).

Snowpatch and fjaeldmark are distinctive localised components of alpine vegetation that are likely to be sensitive to changes in temperature, precipitation, frequency of frost and patterns of snowlie. Fjaeldmark vegetation occurs at the extreme of the environmental gradient for exposure to wind, frost heave and insolation (Kirkpatrick et al . 2002).

33

Tasmanian alpine environments are distinguished by high vascular plant diversity

and endemic richness, primitive and relictual species . Alpine communities are

vulnerable to climate change, with the potential for increased incidence of fire

from lightning strikes - much of the alpine vegetation is fire-killed.

(Photo: Tom Bennett) .

Moorlands and peatlands

Australia’s buttongrass moorlands are a globally unique peatland type. They occur in isolated poorly-drained boggy valley plains in Victoria and New South Wales but have their greatest extent (550,000 ha) and diversity in Tasmania (Balmer et al . 2004). Peatlands are a vital component of the carbon cycle, emitting methane and nitrous oxide and storing large amounts of carbon. They have been estimated to store almost 30% of the global soil carbon stores despite being only 3% of the world’s surface (Parish et al . 2008).

Moorlands in Tasmania include buttongrass

moorlands, Sphagnum peatlands, rushland, sedgeland and peatland predominantly on low fertility substrates in high rainfall areas (Figure 5.2). These communities are considered to be highly sensitive to the potential impacts of climate change.

Key values of moorlands and peatlands

Buttongrass moorlands contain over 200 species of flora and provide habitat for a number of endemic fauna and flora species restricted to this ecosystem, as well as taxa of ancient origins, such as the burrowing crayfish (Parastacoides spp.), pygmy mountain shrimps (Allanaspides spp.) and the damselfly (Synthemiopsis gomphomacromioides). Buttongrass flora includes several threatened species and provides habitat for the ground parrot (Pezoporus wallicus) and the endangered orange-bellied parrot (Neophema chrysogaster). Buttongrass moorlands exemplify vegetation succession associated with fire, through a complex


Snowpatch plant communities are distinctive localised components of alpine vegetation that are likely to be sensitive to changes in

temperature, precipitation, frequency of frost and patterns of snowlie . Large patches of this distinctive longleaf milligania

(Milligania longifolia) and other alpine herbs dominate on the boggy wet patches that form where snow drifts linger . (Photo: Tim Rudman) .

Figure 5 .2 The distribution of moorland and peatland ecosystems in Tasmania

interactive process that involves floristic, geomorphic and climatic variables (Sharples 2003).

Sphagnum peatlands are an unusual and infrequent component of the Tasmanian landscape. They are generally restricted to the cooler and wetter highlands of central Tasmania, mostly between 600 to 1000 m in high rainfall sites. Sphagnum peatlands are acidic and tend to have a suite of plant species present that are adapted to acidity and poor drainage, although bog candleheath (Richea gunnii) is possibly the only Sphagnum-obligate species. Sphagnum peatlands serve as habitat for certain cryptic and ‘primitive’ animal groupings, including the first record of the crustacean family Stygocaridae from Tasmania (Whinam et al . 1989). The conservation significance of the Alpine Sphagnum Bogs and Associated Fens was recognised in 2009 through their national listing as an endangered community under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, in addition to their listing under the Tasmanian Nature Conservation Act 2002 .

Potential impacts on moorlands and peatlands

Tasmania’s extensive moorlands and peatlands are potentially highly impacted by predicted climate change, with changes in temperature and moisture impacting on peat accumulation and oxidation rates. Buttongrass moorlands have their best expression in western Tasmania which like much of Tasmania will be warmer (McIntosh et al . 2005; Grose et al . 2010). Under the A2 scenario increased winter rainfall and reduced summer rainfall are likely in the west (Grose et al . 2010). This will have implications for altered fire regimes and the incidence of the root-rot soil pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi .

Tasmania’s extensive buttongrass moorlands are a globally unique peatland type . Peatlands are a vital component of the carbon cycle, emitting methane and nitrous oxide and storing large amounts of carbon . They have been estimated to store almost 30% of the global soil carbon stores . Projected changes in precipitation and temperature may result in peatlands changing from an important carbon storage to a carbon source through oxidation of peatlands . (Photo: Oberon Carter) .

35

Projected increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns are likely to affect the long-term viability of Sphagnum peatlands, particularly at low altitude sites. Dry conditions tend to result in desiccation of Sphagnum moss, and drought conditions are known to have caused contraction of Sphagnum moss beds in Tasmania (Whinam et al . 2001) and its disappearance from some mainland sites (Bridgman et al . 1995).

Moorlands may be the most flammable vegetation type in the world, able to burn at the highest recorded fuel moisture levels (Marsden-Smedley et al . 1999). They are unusual soil systems, where decayed buttongrass vegetation has provided the main carbon source for these extensive organosols, but they are also highly flammable. The organosols can burn or rapidly oxidise during bushfires. A decrease in effective precipitation and an increase in extreme weather events is likely to result in an increase in both fire frequency and fire intensity. Changing fire regimes would affect

the successional process between

buttongrass moorland and rainforest (Jarman et al . 1988a),

with an increase in the area of young, post-fire buttongrass moorland likely. Fire in buttongrass moorlands affects both carbon storage and runoff characteristics. Erosion, sediment transport and deposition in key western Tasmanian rivers and estuaries is primarily controlled by the health of organosols in these catchments.

Many plant species in moorlands are highly susceptible to the plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi, and increasing temperatures may favour this pathogen, and it is likely to reach higher elevations in buttongrass moorlands than have been recorded to date.

Forest, woodland and associated ecosystems

Forests are amongst the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, covering about 30% of the globe, and been identified as having a high potential vulnerability to climate change in the long-term, and more immediately to the impacts of changed disturbance regimes (drought, fire and insects) (Fischlin et

al . 2007). Recent work has identified that the impacts of climate change on the forests of south-eastern Australia could have serious social and environmental consequences, largely through the impacts of climate change on fire regimes (House, in preparation).

Tasmania has a large forested area (52% of the state), with a diversity of forest types including rainforests, eucalypt forests and woodlands, subalpine communities, coniferous forests, heathlands and a range of scrubs and woodlands dominated by species other than eucalypts such as wattles, tea-trees, banksias (Figure 5.3). Rainforests occur from sea level to subalpine environments and extend over 750,000 ha, largely in western Tasmania with its higher rainfall. Where fire is more frequent rainforest species become restricted and eucalypt forests predominate. Wet eucalypt forests are largely dominated by ash species and require catastrophic fire events for stand replacement. Understoreys may be shrubby or grassy, largely depending on soil fertility. About 45% of Tasmania’s forests are dry eucalypt forests and woodlands, and they may have grassy, shrubby, heathy or sedgy understoreys, depending on rainfall, soil fertility,


The distribution of Sphagnum peatlands in Tasmania is limited by evapotranspiration in the warmest month . Changes in

precipitation patterns and increases in temperature may result in a decline in the extent of Sphagnum peatlands, especially

if the intensity and frequency of fires increase. Sphagnum peatlands of Tasmania provide an important carbon store . Research on Sphagnum communities at Mt Field and on the Central Plateau over the past 25 years has revealed that these communities are being invaded by species such as pineapple grass (Astelia alpina) and woody shrub species, as illustrated. This may lead to increased fire risk with increased fuel loads and changed hydrology .

(Photo: Oberon Carter) .

37

Figure 5 .3 . The distribution of forest ecosystems in Tasmania

(a) Rainforests

(c) Wet forests

(b) Conifer forests

(d) Dry forests

(e) Scrubs and Heaths

fire frequency, grazing regimes and other environmental factors. In low rainfall regions fire-sensitive forests dominated by she-oaks and oyster bay pines, and scrubs formed by wattles, tea-trees and prickly box occur.

Key values of forest, woodland and associated ecosystems

Tasmania’s temperate rainforest and related rainforest scrubs, along with alpine communities, provide habitat for primitive relict genera of flora and fauna and exhibit high levels of endemism. Montane rainforests in particular are rich in primitive plant species, relict species and endemics, especially coniferous forests. These include the King Billy pine (Athrotaxis selaginoides) montane forests, pencil pine (Athrotaxis cupressoides) montane forests, and Huon pine (Lagarostrobos franklinii) rainforests. The most extensive pencil pine montane forests and woodlands are located on the Central Plateau, with the vast majority (97%) in the World Heritage Area (Balmer et al . 2004). This long-lived (1,000+ years), fire-sensitive endemic conifer dominates small areas of rainforest from mid-altitude forests to alpine heaths. Half of the montane King Billy pine forests are in the World Heritage Area. Huon pine rainforest is usually found along river banks, flood plains and the margins of lakes in western Tasmania from sea level to 850 m altitude (Balmer et al . 2004). A small area of Huon pine rainforest includes vegetation with

the primitive endemic angiosperm whitey wood (Acradenia franklinii) within the understorey. Huon pine is the longest lived tree in Australia – trees over 3,000 years old have been dated – making it one of the longest lived organisms on Earth. For this reason, Huon pine is of scientific importance for dendrochronological studies.

Tasmania’s tall eucalypt forests form some of the most pristine temperate forests in the world. These unique forests provide the world’s best examples of distinctive evolutionary features that enable the dominant sclerophyll trees to survive in areas where the climatic climax vegetation is rainforest (Helsham 1988). These forests have the greatest species richness and highest levels of endemism of any mixed forest in Australia (Balmer et al . 2004). Sclerophyll forests provide habitat for all five of Tasmania’s endemic mammals (Driessen and Mallick 2003). Several threatened raptors, such as the grey goshawk (Accipiter novaehollandiae), wedge-tail eagle (Aquila audax) and the masked owl (Tyto novaehollandiae) occur in these forest habitats, as well as the threatened spotted-tailed quoll and Tasmanian devil. Nine of Tasmania’s 11 endemic terrestrial bird species are found within the sclerophyll forest habitats (Driessen and Mallick 2003).

Potential impacts on forest, woodland and associated ecosystems

Forest ecosystems are slow-growing and do not have the ability to migrate quickly into more favourable climatic zones, thus they potentially have a low capacity to adapt to climate change. Species composition in forests is likely to change, resulting in differences in species’ tolerance to new conditions and the rates that they are able to migrate. Tasmania has 29 eucalypt species (Williams and Potts 1996), with 17 taxa endemic to the state (Brown et al . 1983), and many of these form the dominant tree cover in our forests. Many Australian eucalypts have a restricted climatic and geographic range. Over 50% of Australian eucalypts have distributions that span less than 3°C of mean annual temperature, with 25% spanning less than 1°C (Hughes et al . 1996). This narrow temperature tolerance range is significant with regard to future forest habitat availability and suitability. Temperature increases are likely across Tasmania (McIntosh et al . 2005; Grose et al . 2010).

There are concerns about the impact of climate change on the carbon storage potential of forest systems. Increased respiration rates and changes in species composition


Rural tree decline or dieback has been widespread in Tasmania in the past few decades, particularly in eastern Tasmania where it has led to the widespread loss of white gum (Eucalyptus viminalis) forests

such as these in the Midlands . (Photo: Oberon Carter) .

may reduce carbon accumulation in temperate forests. The increased risk of fire may also have a major impact on the ability of forests to store carbon, and reach maturity, as well as impacts on species composition and forest structure. Recently there has been increasing recognition of the role that old growth forests play in the continued storage of carbon (Luyssaert et al . 2008).

Fire plays a major role in the regeneration and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Tasmania, ranging from fire-sensitive forest types such as the conifer communities through to forest ecosystems that require catastrophic fire for their regeneration. Changes in the nature of extreme fire events predicted in response to climate change are considered to be one of the most significant impacts on Tasmania’s forest ecosystems. Inappropriate fire frequency has previously been identified as possibly the greatest threat to the integrity of eucalypt communities (Brown 1996). Changes to the key drivers such as increased temperature and reduced rainfall, increased productivity associated with increased CO2, combined with increased incidence of lightning and possibly stronger wind patterns, may all contribute to increased incidence and severity of fire. In addition changes in fire management and prescribed burning policies could lead to changes in forest structure and composition.

Rainforests may be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change through the impacts of more frequent drought and increased fire regimes, particularly remnant rainforest patches in the protected gullies of eastern Tasmania. Forests such as the small pockets of specialised rainforest (“cloud forest”) on Maria Island, Tasman Peninsula, Flinders Island and south Bruny Island provide important refugia for rainforest species, and are likely to be susceptible. Tasmania is a stronghold in Australia of fire-sensitive rainforest types - large areas of conifers and deciduous beech have already been lost to fire. One third of King Billy pine populations have been eliminated by fire in the past 100 years (Brown 1988). Warmer and drier conditions are likely to lead to an increase in both fire frequency and fire intensity.

Montane coniferous forest at Mt Anne in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area . These forests contain many endemic species, some of which are considered primitive . Reduced rainfall may have direct implications for these species, as well as the potential increase in wildfires which would threaten these fire-sensitive forests. (Photo: Greg Jordan) .

39

Warmer and drier conditions in mountain areas leading to increased drought has been projected to lead to increased dieback in mountain forests (Bugmann et al . 2005). There has been recent observational evidence of drought-associated death and damage to the crowns of King Billy pines in different parts of Tasmania such as Mount Anne and Mount Bobs and to pencil pines at Cradle Mountain and Mount Field. Rainforests provide habitat for primitive endemic species that are not likely to be able to adapt rapidly to change to climate parameters.

An assessment of the impact of climate change on south-east Australian sclerophyll forests has been undertaken as a component of a national assessment of the impact of climate change on the National Reserve System (House in preparation). Changes in the frequency and intensity of both planned and catastrophic fire regimes is potentially the biggest single impact of eucalypt forests of climate change, leading to changes in the structure and composition (Cary 2002). This will impact particularly on the development and persistence of tree hollows (Mackey et al . 2002), affecting habitat for arboreal fauna.

Fire will also impact on the soil carbon stored

under these forests. Changes in CO2 are likely

to change growth rates and the interaction of tree species

and available moisture, particularly in regenerating forests (Steffen and Canadell 2005 cited in House in prep.). Regeneration of these forest types following fire has also been linked to significant decreases in surface runoff and streamflow, which will affect fluvial processes and reduce water availability.

Dry sclerophyll forests and woodlands are largely confined to the lower rainfall regions of central and eastern Tasmania, and the northern coastal zones. These ecosystems, along with Tasmania’s largely agricultural landscapes, are concentrated in the ‘temperate cool-season wet’ agro-climatic zone (Hutchinson et al . 2005) that is likely to be highly impacted upon by the effects of climate change (Dunlop and Brown 2008). Woodlands in particular have already undergone significant changes since European settlement, with extensive fragmentation in lowland Tasmania. These regions, like the rest of the State, will experience warming in the next few decades (McIntosh et al . 2005; Grose et al . 2010). Under the A2 scenario increased summer and autumn rainfall is likely in the east, and central Tasmania will have reduced rainfall in all seasons (Grose et al . 2010).

Dieback in eucalypt trees is widespread in Tasmania, with the widespread death of dominant eucalypts in rural areas since the 1970’s. The dieback in white gum (Eucalyptus viminalis) and black peppermint (E . amygdalina), and more recently the death of montane species yellow gum, (E . subcrenulata) at Cradle Mountain, gum-top stringy bark (E . delegatensis) at Great Lake, Miena cider gum (E . gunnii ssp. divaricata) on the Central Plateau have been linked to a 30 year autumn deficit in rainfall (e.g. Calder and Kirkpatrick 2008). The recent extended drought has also affected forest understorey condition and wildlife habitat, but drought-breaking winter rains in 2009 have rejuvenated understoreys in many districts.

Lowland grassland ecosystems

Native temperate grasslands are grass-dominated ecosystems where seasonal climates and soils favour the dominance of perennial grasses and other graminoids. The temperate grasslands biome occupies about ~ 8% of the earth’s terrestrial surface. These grasslands occur on every continent except for Antarctica and are now the most endangered ecosystem on most of them, especially the prairies of North America, the pampas of South America, the lowland grasslands of south-east Australia and the steppes of Eastern Europe (Henwood 2010). Grasslands are estimated to contain about 34% of the world’s terrestrial carbon (World Bank 2009).


Miena cider gum (Eucalyptus gunnii subsp . divaricata) provides an example of dramatic decline in the face of changing climatic conditions

interacting with other factors . Miena cider gum grows in poorly-drained conditions at the margins of frost hollows and has suffered a rapid decline throughout its narrow geographic range over the last two decades . This is thought to be due to a combination of factors and exacerbated by extended drought . (Photo: Neil Davidson)

Natural temperate grasslands in Australia occur in a wide arc from Adelaide in South Australia to Armidale in New South Wales (Moore 1970). The grasslands form a floristic continuum with temperate grassy woodlands, which are widespread in southern and eastern Australia. Australia’s temperate tussock grasslands consist of a mix of perennial C3 genera (Poa, Austrodanthonia, Austrostipa) and a widespread C4 grass (Themeda triandra), with few woody species. Lowland grasslands are largely reliant on winter-spring rainfall, with most plant growth in spring. However, grasslands are adapted to a high variability in the rainfall, and have evolved under high disturbance regimes with fire and grazing (Prober et al . 2007).

Tasmanian lowland temperate grasslands cover around 100,000 ha (Figure 5.4), and are largely restricted to more fertile soils in the lower rainfall zones of eastern and central Tasmania. It is one of the most threatened and modified ecosystems in the state. Lowland grasslands have suffered significant loss and degradation in the past decade, particularly in the Midlands where severe drought has persisted. Lowland grasslands are generally found in landscapes with a high potential for agricultural production, and they will continue to be exposed to loss through land use change, which is likely to increase as a response to climate change (see also Chapter 2).

Lowland temperate native grasslands are one of the most threatened and fragmented ecosystems in Australia (Kirkpatrick et al .1995). Lowland temperate grasslands and grassy woodlands are one of Australia’s most under-represented biomes in the national conservation estate - it is estimated that <2% of the lowland temperate grasslands remain in most Australian regions (Kirkpatrick et al . 1997; Carter et al . 2002), with much of this area in private ownership.

Key values of lowland grassland ecosystems

Tasmania has some of the most extensive areas of remaining lowland grassland in Australia, with the Tasmanian Midlands having nationally significant examples (McDougall and Kirkpatrick 1994). They are species-rich ecosystems and are important habitat for threatened plants and animals. There are 56 flora and fauna grassland species listed on the Tasmanian Threatened Species Protection Act 1995 including fourteen listed on the Commonwealth Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC) . Whilst much of the remaining grassland suffers from a legacy of fragmentation, weed invasion and land use change, they are important for ecosystem function in lowland agricultural regions. The conservation significance of the lowland grassland communities, Lowland Poa labillardierei grassland and Lowland Themeda triandra

41

Figure 5 .4 The distribution of lowland grassland ecosystems in Tasmania

grassland was recognised in 2009 through the listing of Tasmanian lowland temperate grasslands as a critically endangered community under the EPBC Act.

Potential impacts on lowland grassland ecosystems

An assessment of the impact of climate change on lowland grasslands and grassy woodlands has been undertaken as a component of a national assessment of the impact of climate change on the National Reserve System (Prober et al . in preparation). Likely responses include a loss of grasses and an associated expansion of shrubs, with an impact on grass-dependent species such as seed-eating birds. The fragmentation and degradation of lowland grasslands reduces their natural resilience, making them more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Recent experimental work provides evidence that increasing atmospheric CO2 may be contributing to shrubland expansion and to invasion of grasslands by woody plants in the past 200 years on a global scale (Morgan et al . 2007; Bloor et al . 2008). In the past decades there has been observational evidence of increased shrub invasion into Tasmanian grasslands - landholders have reported increased densities of woody species such as prickly box (Bursaria spinosa), wattles (Acacia species) and woody weed species such as gorse and broom. This trend is reported throughout eastern

Australia and is often referred to as “thickening”.

Differences in phenological responses between different functional groups may potentially increase competition within grassland ecosystems (Cleland et al . 2006). The impacts of the projected climate of 2040 (2°C warming and CO2 at 550 ppm) in Tasmanian temperate native grasslands on factors such as soil carbon storage, pasture productivity, population dynamics and nutrient availability have been the subject of recent research (Williams et al . 2007). Population growth of Themeda triandra, a perennial C4 grass, was largely unaffected by either factor but population growth of Austrodanthonia caespitosa, a perennial C3 grass, was reduced substantially in elevated CO2 plots, with reduced reproduction, germination and soil moisture, and was probably due to increased soil evaporation. Experimental work in tallgrass prairie grasslands in the USA have demonstrated an extended growing season (by 3 weeks), and a shift in reproductive events (Sherry et al . 2007).

Natural grasslands, like forest systems, are important for the sequestration of large amounts of carbon, primarily in the soil (Amundson 2001; World Bank 2009), and grassland degradation and conversion is a large source of carbon loss internationally (Xie et al . 2007; Yang et al . 2008).

Species level responses

Climate change has been predicted to have a wide range of impacts on Australian species, including changes in species distributions and abundances, ecosystem processes, interactions between species, and various threats to biodiversity (Dunlop and Brown 2008). Predicted climate change is expected to result in changes in species’ numbers, distribution and composition. There is growing evidence that climate change will become one of the major drivers of species extinctions this century (Foden et al . 2008).

The range of potential impacts of climate change on individual species is extensive, and species are likely to react differently and individualistically. Dunlop and Brown (2008) and Steffen et al . (2009) both provide excellent summaries of the potential impacts of climate change in Australia on the biology and ecology of individuals, and at the population and ecosystem levels, and these principles are directly applicable to Tasmania.

Tasmania has approximately 1,900 native plant species, 34 native terrestrial mammals, 159 resident terrestrial species of birds, 21 land reptiles, 11 amphibians and 44 freshwater fish, and many of these species are naturally rare and are geographically and climatically restricted (http://www.dpiw.tas.gov.au). These groups will be variously impacted by the predicted impacts of climate change. However no


detailed risk-assessment has been undertaken at the species level to date. Some potential impacts are listed on the next page (Table 5.2).

Threatened species

More than 600 species of plant and animal are listed on the schedules of Tasmania’s Threatened Species Protection Act 1995. They have a disproportionally high risk of extinction from the potential impacts of climate change. They may already have low population numbers, low numbers of mature individuals, low genetic diversity, or specialised habitat or ecological requirements. These predisposing traits may make them more susceptible and less adaptable to environmental change.

In Tasmania, the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) occurs in

sedgelands and alpine heathlands of western Tasmania . Modelled

climate change with a 20% reduction in precipitation and a warming of 3 .4°C at 42°S

(central Tasmania) suggests that the distribution of this species will contract from

coastal and inland lowland areas into mountains, with

the only really suitable areas being in the vicinity of Cradle

Mountain–Lake St Clair (Green et al . 2008) .

(Photo: Michael Driessen) .

43

Natural grasslands, like forest systems, are important for the sequestration of large amounts of carbon, primarily in the soil, and grassland degradation and conversion is a large

source of carbon loss (Photo: Matthew Appleby) .

Mammals

The subalpine and moorland habitats of the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) may be highly vulnerable, putting it at risk.

Birds

Changes in phenology and breeding is predicted for terrestrial birds (Chambers et al . 2005)

Wetland birds impacted by drying of wetlands, saltwater intrusion into freshwater coastal systems, loss of habitat for coastal birds.

All species within the albatross, penguin, petrel and shearwater families considered at risk (Foden et al . 2008).

In Australia, it is anticipated that nearly 20% of migratory bird species are potentially affected through the loss of coastal habitat due to sea level rise, and marine and coastal birds will also be affected in combination with coastal development (Mallon 2007).

Reptiles

Some Tasmanian skinks may be at risk to climate change, including three mountain species with specific temperature requirements.

The vulnerable Pedra Branca skink (Niveoscincus palfreymani) is only found on the barren island of Pedra Branca where they feed on small invertebrates and on fish scraps dropped or regurgitated by the seabirds on the island. They are susceptible to any changes in the seabird colony, and their low-lying habitat is at risk of storm surges.

Amphibians

Frogs are considered the most at risk taxa (Steffen et al . 2009), particularly from the increased incidence of chytrid fungus (Laurance 2008). All of Tasmania’s 11 species occur in families identified as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Foden et al . 2008).

Fish

Native freshwater fish are likely to be sensitive to increased water temperature and its interactive effects with reduced rainfall on water quality.

The golden galaxias (Galaxias auratus) occurs mainly at Lake Sorell and Lake Crescent, where water levels have been decreasing to below the level where spawning habitat dries out.

Invertebrates

Pollinators may experience disruption to their food supply, because their timing is dependent on cumulative temperature, whereas flowering is synchronised by photoperiod.

Plants

Species with nowhere to go, such as those that live on mountain tops, low-lying islands, high latitudes and edges of continents, and those with restricted ranges such as rare and endemic species, are considered vulnerable to climate change. Tasmania has eleven obligate alpine plant species, living only on the mountain tops.

Tasmania has high levels of endemism in its plant species, particularly in alpine and rainforest species - 70% of the species on western mountain tops are endemic.

Plant species with extreme habitat/niche specialisations, such as narrow tolerance to climate-sensitive variables, are considered vulnerable. In Tasmania this could include snowpatch species such as heath cushion plant (Dracophyllum minimum), redflower milligania (Milligania lindoniana) and the small star plantain (Plantago glacialis).

Plant species that are fire-killed are also considered to be vulnerable to the effects of changed fire frequencies and intensities due to climate change. All the Tasmanian native conifer species are highly susceptible to the impacts of fire.


Table 5 .2 Some examples of the potential impact of climate change on various elements of biodiversity .

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems6.

The Tasmanian marine and coastal environments are characterised by a rich biodiversity, heterogeneous coastal landforms, a plethora of offshore island habitats and the convergence of oceanic currents which provide a wide range of environments and ecological niches. Tasmania has the highest ratio of coastline per unit of land area of any Australian state, with approximately 5,400 km of coastline, and over 25% of the area of the state lies below the high water mark (RPDC 2003).

Key values

Marine systems

The South East Marine Region of Australia comprises three biogeographic bioprovinces, the Bassian (comprising

the northern marine areas including Bass Strait), Tasmanian (the marine area south of Bass Strait) and the Insulantarctic (Macquarie Island). Both the Bassian and Tasmanian bioprovinces are each divided into four distinct bioregions based on the distribution of reef plants and animal communities. Twenty-one marine reserves are declared within Tasmania, with the largest comprising the Macquarie Island Marine Reserve. The Commonwealth has declared 13 marine reserves in South East Marine Region, 8 of which lie adjacent to Tasmanian State Waters, with the network covering 226,500 km2.

Australia’s marine environment has unique geological, oceanographic and biological characteristics, with high levels of endemism in the fish, echnioderms and molluscs . Changes in the chemistry and temperature of Tasmania’s marine environment may have a profound effect on marine ecosystems . (Photos: Benita Vincent) .

45

The Tasmanian marine environment is recognised for the global significance of its marine biodiversity. The Tasmanian marine environment is highly valued with areas such as the Bathurst Channel marine and estuarine community considered unique and globally anomalous (Edgar et al . 2007). The geomorphological, climatic, hydrodynamic and hydrological conditions operating in the Port Davey region have generated an aquatic environment with an unusually abundant mix of flora and fauna. Some of these endemic species have an extremely narrow range and include relictual Gondwanan elements, notably the Port Davey skate (Edgar et al . 2007).

The kelp forests of southern Tasmania are world-renowned for their ecological and economic significance. Kelp, a major keystone species, provides key habitat for commercial species such as abalone and rock lobster, important regional fisheries. Kelp forests also play important ecological roles influencing the hydrological and

light environment and the recruitment of fish

and invertebrates. They play a key role as a mechanism for

invertebrate dispersal and provide important foraging and nesting habitat for shorebirds and migratory waders. Kelp forests also have a very high recreational value for diving in Tasmania.

Estuaries

Estuarine environments are among the most productive on earth - the sheltered tidal waters of estuaries support unique communities of plants and animals that are specially adapted for life at the margin of the sea. In Tasmania these include beaches and dunes, rocky foreshores, marshes and other wetlands, mud and sandflats, seagrass meadows, kelp forests and rocky reefs. Estuaries are essential for the survival of many birds, fish and mammals. These “nurseries of the sea” provide many species of fish with sheltered waters for spawning and safe habitat for juveniles to develop. Some migratory wader birds rely on estuaries as resting and feeding grounds during their long journeys. In particular, the Derwent Estuary is visited by at least 11 species of migratory birds

including the short-tailed shearwater. The lower Derwent estuary and adjoining bays and channels are the only location where the unique and endangered spotted handfish (Brachionichthys hirsutus) is found (Bruce and Green 1998).

Coastal systems

Tasmania has a wide diversity of coastal landforms, reflecting complex lithology and geological structure, various discrete sediment sources, and variable nearshore submarine topography. It has a large extent of coastline relative to its land mass, with the highest ratio of coastline to land area of any Australian state (RPDC 2003). There are few undisturbed high-energy compartmentalised rocky and sandy coasts in the world’s temperate zones that compare with those in Tasmania, especially on the west coast (Sharples 2003). This high-energy coastline has a diversity of landforms and associated plant communities and species. Tasmania’s offshore islands are important sea bird rookeries (Brothers et al . 2001) and contain cool temperate island floras of national significance on Ile du Golfe, Maatsuyker Island and Flat Witch Island in the World Heritage Area (Balmer et al . 2004).

46 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems

Handfish belong to a unique Australian family of anglerfish (Brachionichthyidae) - five of the eight currently identified species

are endemic to Tasmania and Bass Strait. The spotted handfish (Brachionichthys hirsutus) is classified as Critically Endangered

on the IUCN Red List 2002 . It has a highly restricted territory, being found only in the estuary of Derwent River and nearby areas . Species with narrow habitat requirements or with a very localised distribution are potentially more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on the marine environment . (Photo: Graham Edgar) .

The Tasmanian coastal environment contains a high proportion of the state’s native plant species (about a third), with about 145 species (8% of the flora) largely confined to coastal areas (Balmer et al . 2004). The west coast habitats offer specialised niches for some rare and restricted endemic plants, particularly short coastal herbfields, coastal cliffs, coastal beach sands, sea bird breeding colonies and coastal lagoons. The coastal plant communities of the World Heritage Area are largely free of exotic sand-binding plants, with the exception of the recent invasion of coast sea spurge (Euphorbia paralias). Hence, natural dune formation and erosion occur, supporting natural diversity in the grassy dune vegetation. In sheltered embayments on the west coast a globally-unusual fen known locally as marsupial lawns occur, the result of natural geomorphic processes combined with grazing (Balmer et al . 2004).

Outstanding coastal features include raised marine terraces on the west coast that provide Australia’s most complete record of sea level in relation to tectonic uplift (Houshold et al . 2007), and the coastal calcarenite on Flinders Island’s south-west coast that are some of Australia’s best developed karst systems.

Tasmania’s south and west coasts have the most extensive, undeveloped coastline in south-eastern Australia. Backed by essentially unmodified catchments,

the coast between Cockle Creek and Macquarie Harbour contributes to the international significance of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. The coastal barrier, lagoon and contributing fluvial system at New River is arguably the most pristine integrated coastal/estuarine/fluvial system in Australia.

North-western Tasmania has outstanding examples of beach ridge sequences such as those on Robbins Island, marking successive Quaternary uplift events (van der Geer 1981). Similarly the extensive calcareous dune systems that parallel the west coast represent at least two major phases of Quaternary activity, and the spectacular parallel dune systems enclosing brackish lagoons along the east coast of the Furneaux Islands, along with the saline lagoon systems of Cape Barren Island, are also of high geoconservation significance. Important examples of coasts that have been subject to Quaternary uplift are found on King Island, with many raised beaches and sea-caves (Jennings 1959). Waterhouse Point area is composed of extensive ocean beaches and relict Pleistocene terrestrial longitudinal dune systems, originally sourced from the dry bed of Bass Strait (Bowden 1983).


Marine systems

South-eastern Tasmania is expected to show the greatest sea surface temperature (SST) rising for any location in the Southern Hemisphere. Current evidence is showing an increase in southward extent of the East Australian Current (EAC) in south-eastern Tasmania with a resultant southern extension of warmer, nutrient poor waters. Data from the CSIRO show that the mean SST in Mercury Passage has already risen by 1.6°C in 50 years, three times the average rate of global warming (CSIRO 2007). The Leeuwin Current which influences the west coast of Tasmania may decrease in strength, affecting important upwelling areas that are critical foraging areas for a number of marine organisms and threatened species such as the Shy Albatross and marine mammals. A decrease in zonal westerly winds may inhibit East Coast Tasmanian upwelling events, and a strengthening of the EAC will limit impingement of nutrient-rich southern waters.

Regardless of the other issues arising from increased CO2 emissions and their effects on the marine environment and oceanographic processes, the natural absorption of CO2 by the world’s oceans is already having an observable impact (Royal Society 2005). Increased CO2 concentrations in seawater are currently reducing the pH levels of the ocean making it more

47

acidic, having already dropped 0.1 units from pre-industrial levels (Hobday et al . 2008). Reduced pH also reduces the concentrations of carbonate ion and aragonite which are vital for the formation of shells and skeletons of marine organisms. Other indirect impacts of increasing acidity of the oceans include increased stratification of layers and the undersaturation of calcium carbonate. Changes in ocean chemistry are already leading to decreased calcium deposition of organisms that are a major component of the lower food web (Fabry et al . 2008; Riebesell et al . 2007; Riebesell et al . 2008).

Estuaries

Climate change was identified as one of the nine potential threats to the biological resources and conservation value of Tasmanian estuaries (Edgar et al . 1999). Other threats among the nine identified, such as modification to water flow and the spread of pest species, are also exacerbated by climate change. The mix of marine and freshwater influences on estuarine systems suggests that estuaries will be impacted by climate change from multiple sources. There are impacts associated with sea level rise, flooding and shoreline erosion.

Climate change induced changes in pH, water temperature, wind, dissolved CO2 and salinity can all affect water quality in estuarine waters (Gitay et al . 2001). Increased water temperature also affects

important microbial processes such as nitrogen fixation and denitrification in estuaries (Lomas et al . 2002). Some of the greatest potential impacts of climate change on estuaries may result from changes in physical mixing characteristics caused by changes in freshwater runoff (Scavia et al . 2002). This leads to changes in water residence time, nutrient delivery, vertical stratification, salinity and control of phytoplankton growth rates. The effects of changing rainfall patterns on water supply and stormwater run-off increase sediment loads and cause siltation, thus altering estuarine habitats.

The likely physical effects on the estuarine environment include:

- Widening and deepening of estuaries

- Further upstream penetration of tides, and potentially salt wedges

- Impeded river discharge, potentially increasing flooding

- A greater proportion of fluvial sediment deposited in estuaries, rather than augmenting coastal sediment supply

- Erosion of coastal barriers - Creation of new lagoon

entrances - Modification of muddy estuarine/

deltaic/saltmarsh landforms- Penetration of salt water into

groundwater - Rising groundwater tables

Coastal systems

Coastal systems in Tasmania are considered some of the environments most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. Recent climate science has progressed significantly since the IPPC’s Fourth Assessment Report, and data presented at a recent Standing Committee indicates that possible sea level rise is at the upper end of the IPPC 4 projections of 0.8 metres by 2100 (House of Representatives Standing Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts 2009). Sea level rise is projected to result in the gradual inundation of ecosystems for about half of the Australian coast (Department of Climate Change 2009).

The Tasmanian coastal environment is identified in the Tasmanian Climate Change Strategy as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with significant areas of coast at risk of erosion from exposure to sea level rise and storm surge inundation. More than 1,440 km of Tasmania’s coastline has been identified as being at risk of coastal flooding, and more than 975 km of shoreline are at risk of erosion, sand dune mobility, rock falls and slumping as a result of sea level rise and storm surges (Sharples 2006), with consequent impacts on natural values.

Impacts on Tasmania’s coastal landforms will be complex and variable, (Table 6.1) reflecting the diversity of coastal systems.


General effects of climate change and sea level rise on various coastal landforms may include extensive submergence of low-lying areas, advancement of low and high tides landwards, increased coastal erosion, more frequent and intense storm surges and minor coastal aggradation, where longshore sediment supply outstrips erosion (Bird 1985). Increased storminess will also likely modify western Tasmanian coastal environments.

Sea level rise occurs as a direct consequence of thermal expansion of ocean water, and the melting of land ice, driven by global warming. The southward extension of the warmer EAC waters is also predicted to result in a sea level rise above that of global background sea level rise. Over the last 150 years, global sea levels have risen by approximately 15-18 cm (Solomon et al . 2007). This figure is supported locally in Tasmania by a measured rise of approximately 14 cm since 1841 at Port Arthur (Hunter et al . 2003) (see Ch.1 for a discussion of sea level rise). These changes are significant – application of the Bruun Rule (Bruun 1962) suggests that for sandy coasts, for every 1m of rise there will be 50-100 m of horizontal erosion.

A comprehensive analysis of Tasmania’s coastal vulnerability to sea level rise has been undertaken (Sharples 2006). The range of Tasmanian coastal landforms in combination with likely processes of degradation allowed various

key factors to be identified, and applied to a detailed line map of the state’s coastal landforms.

Many Tasmanian beaches show evidence of ongoing retreat and some of progradation over the past few decades. It is likely that at least some of this erosion is linked to recent sea level rise induced by climate change. The IPCC AR4 cautions that for mid-latitudinal coastal systems, such as those found in Tasmania, it is difficult to discriminate the extent to which changes such as coastal erosion are a part of natural variability. The clearest evidence of the impact of climate change on coasts over the past few decades comes from polar coasts and tropical reefs. Nearly all beaches on the south-west coast are currently eroding, with large active foredune erosion scarps (Cullen 1998). Air-photo evidence indicates that this erosion has probably been in progress since at least the 1960s.

The most spectacular example of coastal retreat in Tasmania is found at Ocean Beach on the west coast where the coastline has retreated between 20 and 30 metres over the last few decades (Ian Houshold pers.comm.). This has involved the removal of the entire foredune, with the current coastal scarp actively eroding swampy peat deposits, originally laid down in a swale behind the foredune. Whilst sea level rise is likely to be a key driver, long-shore

sediment transport and even minor local subsidence may also have played a role in driving ongoing degradation. Significant coastal retreat has also been documented at Roches Beach in south-eastern Tasmania (Sharples 2006).

The vulnerability of coastal systems to climate change is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures in the coastal zone. For most of the past century, coastal regions have experienced significant growth and are projected to continue to show the most rapid population growth (Nicholls et al . 2007). Australia is a very coastal society, with more than 80 per cent of the population living within 50 km of the coastline (PMSEIC Independent Working Group 2007). Coastlines that are subject to development have a lower capacity to adapt to changes in sea level, because they are no longer in their natural state of being dynamic and highly mobile. In addition, if human responses to rising sea levels are to defend the coast with artificial structures such as sea walls, the existing potential for natural shoreline adjustment to the changing conditions will be further reduced.

49

Coastal grasslands dominated by the native Spinifex (Spinifex hirsutus) in north-eastern

Tasmania . (Photo: Tim Rudman) .

Predicted impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems

Marine systems

The IPCC AR4 identifies that the most vulnerable marine ecosystems include the Southern Ocean. The impacts of increased CO2 absorption by the world’s oceans are seen as one of the major issues

of increased carbon emissions. Although some individual species may benefit from high CO2 and low pH conditions, it is likely that acidic oceans will have major impacts on entire ecosystems. Evidence is already apparent of its impacts on the growth and function of many important planktonic species and at this stage it is unclear what impacts the levels of CO2 predicted for the next 100 years would have on the

life cycles of multicellular organisms, and proceeding trophic impacts on the food web.

Possible impacts that have been identified for Tasmanian marine systems include a decrease in marine productivity, which will again impact on food chains. The southern extension of warmer waters will cause a southward shift in species distributions. Warmer ocean temperatures in Tasmania now support species that were not viable due to cold water winter temperatures. Ecosystems that are usually in more temperate regions are shifting southward, and many of Tasmania’s endemic species have a limited capacity to adapt to such change.

Along with these changes is the increase in alien species. Alien species in the marine environment can simply migrate with the warming conditions from more northern areas or be introduced as plankton through ballast discharge. Already there are observable changes in faunal assemblages within the Tasmanian marine environment, not only impacting abundance of local organisms but also resulting in habitat alteration. An example of southward migration is the Centrostephanus rodgersii (sea urchin), which is now self established in Tasmania, presumably by larval transport by the EAC. Outbreaks are known to cause barrens directly affecting ecosystems that are vital for significant fisheries such as the abalone industry. The urchin is now

Cliffs and shore platforms

Increase in basal erosion and slumping, leading to cliff retreat

Increase in coastal landslips

Beaches, spits and barriers

Increase in erosion, particularly on the seaward side

Effects of more frequent, higher magnitude storm surges on low-lying coasts

Continued erosion of wide beaches

Complete removal of sand from narrow beaches

Rapid removal of sand in front of artificial sea-walls, as soon as wave reflection becomes common

Undermining and collapse of sea-walls with shallow foundations

Potential accretion if longshore sand supply outstrips seaward transport

Progressive erosion of soft clay-gravel shores

Coastal dunes

Undercutting and erosion once wave attack reaches the backshore zone

Increased exposure of sand to prevailing winds likely to initiate dune movement inland

Intertidal areas

Submergence of the present intertidal zone

Erosion of salt-marshes and landward migration of coastal ecosystems


Table 6 .1 Potential impacts on coastal landforms .

able to produce viable offspring in waters above a winter minimum of 12°C. Warming of eastern Tasmanian waters now contribute to a self-sustaining population (Johnson et al . 2005)

Observable range extension has been identified for phytoplankton species including Noctiluca scintillans . Formerly only recorded in more temperate waters, this species has for the last several years been observed as an over winter resident in Tasmanian waters. The European Shore Crab (Carcinus maenas) is another introduced predator that has very recently rapidly extended its range into east coast Tasmania, correlating with declines in the abundance of marine organisms (Walton et al . 2002).

A decline in marine biodiversity is highly likely. Tasmania’s kelp forests (an important fisheries habitat) are already reducing in distribution and abundance. Large declines over the last 50 years have been attributed to rising sea temperature (Edyvane 2003; Edgar et al . 2005). Like kelp, cold water corals also act as a keystone species, creating structurally diverse habitat, and are expected to decline in response to both warming and increased oceanic acidity. A major reduction in rainfall could threaten the unique Bathurst Channel marine and estuarine community through reduction in the depth and transparency of the halocline (a strong vertical salinity gradient) and increased penetration of macroalgae into the sessile

(anchored to the ocean floor) invertebrate zone. There are likely to be changes in the distribution and composition of seagrass and other macro-algae communities (Bishop and Kelaher 2007). For example, some seagrass species are both temperature and light-sensitive. Photosynthetic groups such as brown algae and seagrass may benefit from climate change by increasing their biomass through increased CO2 availability (Guinotte and Fabry 2008).

Significant fisheries rely on Tasmanian marine ecosystems. CSIRO predicts that in 50 years, Tasmanian fisheries can expect a marked reduction (64%) in catch rates even with careful management. Important temperate-water aquaculture operations may be threatened by rising sea surface temperatures, and abalone and rock lobster fisheries are threatened by the likely effects of climate change. These species are extremely important to the economic sustainability of Tasmanian fisheries.

The impact of climate change on fish and krill populations will in turn have an impact on higher order predators such as seals, whales, seabirds, and penguins. Species that rely on Tasmania as a staging point to exploit Antarctic krill will be impacted by ice depletion and resulting loss of krill abundance. Krill-based whale species are likely to shift in response

to declines in krill abundance. Seals may be impacted by changes in fish assemblages as well as increased fisheries pressures, which will lower food availability.

These issues will in turn impact the ability for seabird populations with high site fidelity (mostly procellariiformes) to relocate, though species with low site fidelity such as gulls, terns and gannets may be able to respond to such changes in food availability. Other potential climate change impacts for the higher order species include an alteration of currents and upwelling areas, which will affect the foraging behaviour of seabirds. Also, the expansion of Australian Fur Seals into southern islands (Maatsuyker Group), will have implications for rare New Zealand Fur Seals that utilise this area as their primary habitat.

Changes in timing of phytoplankton production will have implications on migratory species such as humpback and southern right whales and seabirds which may not have the evolutionary plasticity to adapt. The changes in timing of migrations would have an effect on social

51

Predicted temperature rise will lead to a reduction in winter sea-ice coverage in Antarctic waters. Krill thrives in the sea ice and any loss will reduce the amount of food available to whales . Migratory whales would have to travel farther

south to reach food-rich areas, needing more energy for longer migration journeys and suffering from

shorter feeding seasons . (Photo: Drew Lee) .

structure (cohorts). Low fecundity makes whales highly sensitive to climate change, especially as many populations are still recovering from past levels of heavy exploitation. Migrating whales are also heavily impacted on changes much further afield than Tasmania, such as whales relying on sea ice extent and krill availability. Table 6.3 summarises some projected climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Estuaries

The evidence that has emerged of catastrophic losses of shell (mollusc) species over the past 150 years in shallow, sheltered estuarine waters of the south-east (Samson and Edgar 2001), highlights the uncertainty relating to events that have occurred over long periods of time as well as changes that continue today. These losses were previously undetected.

Other changes to species distributions in estuaries are predicted. For example, the Australian grayling (Prototroctes maraena) is an estuarine-dependent species that has experienced declines on Tasmania’s east coast probably as a result of changes in freshwater flows to estuaries (Edgar 2007). The spotted handfish (Brachionichthys hirsutus) is found in the Derwent estuary with an estimated total population of 3,000–5,000 individuals. An increase in water temperature of 1.5º C is likely to put the spotted handfish outside its climate range (Edgar 2008). Changes in terrestrial

Potential Impacts Tasmanian Examples

Salt intrusion into freshwater systems

Riparian huon pine communities on the Gordon and Pieman Rivers on the west coast are vulnerable to the effects of salinity

Coastal wetlands exposed to risk of altered salinity, sediment inputs and nutrient loadings

Tidal surges / inundation

Coastal rainforest on soft sediments

Loss of marsupial lawns (Roberts 2008)

Loss of saltmarsh (Prahalad 2009)

Storm surges / salt spray

The endangered Southport heath (Epacris stuartii), with a highly restricted coastal distribution, has been affected by storm surges

Increased seafog events that trap salt-laden air have led to widespread death of coastal eucalypts in a number of regions of Tasmania (Maria Island, north coast) in recent years.

Species and ecosystems that favour new climate conditions may out-compete other vegetation

Marram grass out-competing native grasses

saltmarsh may migrate inland if suitable habitat is available

Loss of coastal habitat

Reduction in area of beach grasslands and beach sedgelands.

loss of frontline beach foredune shrubland communities such as coast beardheath (Leucopogon parviflorus) shrubland.

loss of coastal communities such as sandy beaches and dunes, coastal wetlands and saltmarshes where they are bounded by environments not conducive to landward migration

marsupial lawns - however the community appears is capable of establishing within an eroding beach environment. eg Hannet Inlet in WHA

coastal tussock grasslands in dune systems are expected to be reduced. This will put threatened species and restricted distribution species found only on coastal dunes at risk. In north-west Tasmania these include Coast speedwell Veronica novae hollandiae and Stackhousia spathulata .


Table 6 .2 Potential impacts on coastal vegetation

runoff driven by changes in rainfall patterns and extreme storm events, are all likely to put estuarine-dependent species under threat. Other concerns include changes in estuarine fisheries and habitats, and increased vulnerability from marine pests and weeds.

Inundation of low-lying areas around Tasmanian estuaries could impact saltmarshes, wetlands and intertidal sandflats (important wading bird habitat). For example, inundation around the Derwent Estuary could potentially impact saltmarshes, wetlands and 1,000 ha of intertidal sandflats (Whitehead 2009).

Coastal systems

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) identified that coasts and low-lying areas are highly vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change over coming decades due to their exposure to climate change and sea level rise (Nicholls et al . 2007). The report also identified that coastal systems are naturally dynamic with some coastal systems more vulnerable than others. Coastal wetland ecosystems and saltmarshes are considered particularly

Physical climate change indicator

Potential impact

Increased sea surface temperatures

Southward retreat of endemic habitats, keystone species and faunal assemblages, movement limited by southern coastline and habitats.

Increased growth rates and earlier maturity of some fish and squid species.

More favourable conditions for the establishment of introduced marine pests

Increased oceanic acidity

Potential loss of cold water corals and important structural habitats.

Directly impact calcification rate of key marine organisms such as coccolithophores, pteropods

More energy required to construct shells

Fish find it more difficult to transport oxygen when their tissues become more acidic and their growth slows

Changes in zonal winds

Alterations to the timing and location of wind driven upwelling

Changes to foraging areas for marine predators

Potential changes to larval transport system

53

Table 6 .3 Potential impacts on the marine environment

Analysing recently obtained saltmarsh vegetation and extent data for the Pitt Water and Lauderdale areas of Hobart with old (1975) datasets have indicated that several

saltmarshes at Duckhole Rivulet have undergone numerous changes over the past three decades caused

by anthropogenic impacts, climate change and sea level rise . Low saltmarsh plants have replaced taller

long-lived plants as the dominant species, leading to a change in the vegetation community composition . In addition extensive areas within the marsh have

become denuded of vegetation with the creation of salt pans (in the back of the marsh) and degrading

areas (in the middle marsh), and shoreline erosion . (Photo: Vishnu Prahalad) .

vulnerable. Other systems

have a higher adaptive capacity because of their naturally dynamic nature and ability to accrete new sediments.

The modifications to coastal conditions likely to be brought about by climate change will have a major impact on the higher order species. The Bass Strait Islands are an important habitat for marine species, but inundation by rising sea levels and increased storm surges is likely to result in a reduction in breeding areas for seals and seabirds. Coastal nesting of species such as penguins, terns, gulls and petrels and storm petrels will be impacted by sea level rise, an increase in the formation of steep dune walls, which will limit access, and submergence of low-lying islands and important roosting areas during storm surges. The impacts will also affect seals, with a large increase in stochastic pup mortality on low-lying breeding colonies such as Reid Rocks. Breeding areas may have to shift in response to changes in upwelling due to changes in wind patterns.

Coastal vegetation is exposed to a complex of interacting processes triggered by climate change, including biological and ecological pressures interacting with introduced weeds,

pests and pathogens, habitat fragmentation, land use and

coastline change. Changes in coastal geomorphology can have profound impacts on availability of different habitats on the coast. Table 6.2 provides some examples of potential changes in coastal vegetation.

Tasmania’s subantarctic islands - Macquarie Island

Climate change is predicted to be most pronounced at high latitudes (Meehl et al . 2007), and will directly impact on the flora and fauna of subantarctic islands (Barnes et al . 2006). Macquarie Island Nature Reserve is the key Tasmanian subantarctic natural asset potentially at risk from climate change impacts.

Macquarie Island Nature Reserve is one of the most valuable nature reserves in the world, internationally recognised for its conservation, geological, ecological and scientific values. It is a World Heritage Area, a Biosphere Reserve, and is listed on the National Heritage Register. Macquarie Island is situated about 1,500 kilometres south-east of Tasmania, about half way between Tasmania and Antarctica. It is the only island in the world composed entirely of oceanic crust and rocks from the mantle, deep below the earth’s surface. World Heritage listing of Macquarie Island was principally based upon the geoscientific values of the exposed oceanic lithosphere. As a bedrock geology feature those values are not considered

particularly susceptible to climate change.

Other features were accepted by the IUCN as meeting the World Heritage criterion regarding superlative natural features, notably the spectacular steep escarpments and uplifted palaeo-shorelines, extensive subantarctic peat beds, large numbers of lakes, pools and superlative examples of subantarctic vegetation (Department of Environment, Sport and Territories 1996). These features are all potentially subject to climate change effects. Perhaps most important from a geoconservation perspective are the organosols, and the effect that any significant loss due to climate change may have on the rate of slope processes. Sensitivity to loss of peat has already been demonstrated by rabbit-induced slope failures (Scott and Kirkpatrick 2008).

Macquarie Island has extensive congregations of wildlife on low-lying coastal regions, including Royal and King penguins (especially during the breeding season), and impressive colonies of elephant seals. Penguins are likely to be the most affected group of seabirds on Macquarie Island. Four penguin species breed in the reserve. King Penguins (~500,000 birds) and Gentoo Penguins (~3,800 birds) are present all year round, while the Rockhopper (~100,000 birds) and Royal Penguins (~850,000 birds) are present from September to April. This island is also critical habitat for a number of


Climate change is predicted to have significant impacts on subantarctic penguins, particularly through changes to their food supply and through loss of breeding areas . Researchers studying King Penguins have found that warm-water events negatively impact adult survival and breeding success . (Photo: Jennie Whinam) .

threatened seabird species,

including four species of albatross (three endangered, one vulnerable) and nine species of petrels (three endangered, two vulnerable and one rare species), all of which may be susceptible to changes in food availability and foraging areas.

Since 1994, the population of the wandering albatross on Macquarie Island has remained stable, at approximately 10 breeding pairs each year. However recent declines in the number of chicks hatched and fledged are a cause for serious concern for the long-term survival of this population. The World Wildlife Fund has noted that increasing air temperatures over the Southern Ocean since the 1960s has coincided with a decrease in the abundance of the wandering and black-browed albatross, both of which breed in Australian waters. Warmer waters are more nutrient-poor than cooler waters and the success of seabird feeding has been correlated with instances where a high degree of mixing between colder deeper nutrient-rich water and warmer nutrient-poor surface water occurs (WWF 2008).

Other likely major climate change impacts on values include the significant impact of sea level rise on the coastal terrace, with consequences for the giant bull kelp,

thousands of breeding penguins (including the endemic royals) and seals (including the listed threatened elephant seals), all of which are restricted to breeding on the coastal terraces/beaches.

Rabbit breeding has significantly increased from producing a single successful litter per year to 2-3 litters per year, as the burrows are no longer flooded regularly. This has resulted in widespread devastation on the slopes and to the flora; a shifting prey base, with rabbits plentiful across the island, which has led to changes in the nutrient cycle for plants; the spread of bird predators away from traditional food sources (rookeries, seal colonies) with consequent impacts on burrowing bird species, aggravated by the loss of vegetation cover.

A combination of drier conditions and rabbit impacts has resulted in a widespread increase in the herbaceous plant species buzzy burr (Acaena magellanica) on Macquarie Island, a change that has also been observed on the Kerguelen archipelago. While this species is native to subantarctic islands, it tends to cover vast areas in a dense sward of vegetation, outcompeting other species by either physically covering the plant or making establishment of other species difficult. There is a greater risk that weed species will establish from the accidental importation of seed propagules. Dock (Rumex crispus)(now an invasive species

on subantarctic Marion Island) and sweet vernal grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum), both agricultural weed species, have already been removed from known single populations (Copson and Whinam 2001). The isthmus, with the entire associated station infrastructure required for conservation management, is likely to be inundated in the future as a consequence of sea level rise, with a reported increase in sea surges during recent storms.

Azorella cushion (Azorella macquariensis) is an endemic keystone species of fjaeldmark on Macquarie Island . There has been major dieback in the Azorella during 2009/10, with up to 90% of affected areas dead . It is not yet clear as to what has caused the dieback, but is likely to be a combination of environmental stresses - such as drier conditions and increased rabbit numbers - and a possible pathogen . (Photo: Julie McInnes) .

55

Climate change is already affecting the amount of squid and fish available for seals to eat. In addition seals may be affected by loss of habitat due to sea level rise, and by sea ice loss in the Southern Ocean . (Photo: Rowan Trebilco) .

The Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) will continue to assess and monitor the impacts of climate change on natural values, and will concurrently develop a range of adaptation strategies aimed at building ecosystems resilience. Resilience is defined as the ability of natural systems to recover or “bounce back” from natural disturbances (Walker et al . 2006). Building resilience into natural systems will allow environmental and climatic variability to buffer the impacts of climate change, and will involve the maintenance of habitats, landscape and ecological connectivity (Manning 2007).The need to increase the resilience of our natural systems has been identified in many climate change adaptation approaches (e.g. NRMMC 2004, Steffen et al . 2009, Heller and Zavaleta 2009), with the maintenance of biodiversity considered critical (Peterson et al . 1998).

This preliminary assessment will guide the initial formulation of policy responses, including monitoring strategies and adaptive management responses. Planning for uncertainty will be a key aspect of adaptation approaches, with an emphasis on risk management.

Improved knowledge on the projected impacts of climate change on our natural values will come from many sources including systematic monitoring and research, risk assessments and modeling, and will

involve a range of organisations and partners, along with the broader Tasmanian community. In particular the Tasmanian Climate Futures Project, available in 2010, will assist in refining climate projections for Tasmania to enable a better understanding of regional variability of the potential climate impacts in order to inform risk assessments and the development of scenario planning and adaptation approaches at more local scales.

TasFACE is investigating the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on a species-rich temperate grassland at Pontville in southern Tasmania . Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) is a method used by researchers that raises the concentration of CO2 in a specified area and allows the response of plant growth to be measured . The temperature is raised by 2°C with infrared lamps . The experiment has been running for eight years and already there have been some significant changes detected . The results also have implications for agriculture in Tasmania .

Mitigation and adaptation

The National Climate Change Strategy 2004-2007 (NRMMC 2004) has identified that adaptation approaches will be necessary to complement mitigation measures to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. However, it should be noted that the IPCC has identified that adaptation approaches may only be effective at scenarios where warming is limited to <2-3°C (Fischlin et al . 2007).

The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) identified that a range of values including natural ecosystems would benefit from early regional adaptation measures. Adaptation reduces the vulnerability of the natural environment to the potential impacts of climate change by building resilience. Increasingly the

56 Responding to Climate Change

Responding to Climate Change

7.

emphasis is on ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation that integrate the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services into overall adaptation strategies (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity 2009).These approaches include sustainable management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems. The World Bank has recently stated that ecosystem-based approaches to mitigation and adaptation should be an essential pillar in national strategies to address climate change (World Bank 2009).

Principles for managing natural assets against the impacts of climate change

Some key adaptation management principles that have been recognised in international and national adaptation approaches are described below.

Maintain and protect well-functioning ecosystems

The maintenance of biodiversity is one simple but effective means of maintaining ecosystem function and building resilience into ecosystems. Conservation planning at a landscape-scale that allows for the protection of ecological function and the associated ecosystem services would prioritise the value of large, intact, healthy areas of native vegetation. In the future, maintaining the adaptability of ecosystems may become a key management goal under climate change scenarios

(Manning 2007), along with “minimising the loss” (Dunlop and Brown 2008).

Increase the protection of habitat

Conserving natural terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems and restoring degraded ecosystems is essential to climate change approaches. Protecting existing ecosystems and a diversity of habitats is a fundamental adaptation approach. In the face of the uncertainty of the specific impacts of climate change, protection of a diversity of habitats provides heterogeneity that acts as an insurance policy.

The development of the National Reserve System (NRS) has been identified as a priority climate change adaptation approach for the protection of Australia’s biodiversity (Dunlop and Brown 2008), embracing the CAR reserve design principles of comprehensiveness, adequacy and representativeness (JANIS 1997). Linking protected area establishment with off-reserve conservation efforts is a key action identified in Australia’s Strategy for the National Reserve System 2009-2030 .

Tasmania has a world-class reserve system that covers more than 40% of the state. All Tasmanian bioregions have reached the National Reserve System (NRS) Direction for Comprehensiveness, which aims to have examples of at least 80% of the number

of extant ecosystems in each bioregion in the NRS. However Tasmania has one bioregion that does not meet the NRS target to have 10% of its area in reserves. At the ecological community scale, Tasmania has 8% of its 145 native vegetation communities at a reservation level of <10%. The majority of these communities are primarily located on private land. The role of protection measures and management of private land that is sympathetic to biodiversity will be a very important component of adaptation approaches in Tasmania.

Reduce the impacts of current threats

Australia’s biodiversity is already suffering from the impact of a range of current threats, including habitat fragmentation - climate change will exacerbate the existing threats as well as being an additional threat in its own right. Minimising the impacts of existing threats in both protected areas and the broader landscape is a key adaptation principle (Dunlop and Brown 2008). Minimising the impacts of existing threats has been suggested as the only practical large-scale adaptation approach for marine ecosystems (Robinson et al. 2005).

Natural disturbance regimes including floods, wildfires, and storm events are predicted to change and intensify under climate change scenarios. Proactive management may help reduce the impacts. For example, controlled burning and other techniques could be used to

57

reduce the potential impacts of catastrophic wildfires, particularly on fire-sensitive native vegetation such as Tasmania’s unique conifer and alpine communities. However, there is likely to be a reduced safe window of opportunity for fuel reduction burning to be implemented.

Maintain viable, connected and genetically diverse populations

The movement of species between habitat patches is vital for many species, and will become increasingly so as the climatic envelope of many species shifts with changing climatic conditions. This movement can occur on many scales ranging from local to regional to continental, and the habitat can be continuous or in the form of disconnected stepping stones. Appropriate levels of landscape connectivity to allow for species and plant communities to migrate to more favourable habitats in response to climate change, and to allow for recombinations of species assemblages, is an important strategy for building ecosystem

resilience and

allowing ‘space for

nature to self-adapt’

(Mansergh and Cheal 2007).

Active interventions

Rehabilitation of habitat, restoration and revegetation will all need to be actively considered as part of our climate change preparation and adaptation approaches. These strategies can be used to extend and buffer existing habitat and to restore ecological connectivity where it is seen to be advantageous. Restoration of riparian zones provides particularly effective ecological returns (Jones et al . 2007). However, planning for ecosystem restoration must now consider the effects of climate change; otherwise there may be failures in the medium- to long-term due to changing conditions. For example, the regeneration of forests after logging must use appropriate provenances and species for the anticipated climatic conditions. Translocations may become critical for some ecosystems such as low-lying islands that are threatened by sea level rise and species on mountain tops that may have no habitat to migrate to.

One particular facet of Tasmania’s active intervention approaches to climate change is the Millennium Seed Bank Project. The Royal Tasmanian Botanical Gardens, in

partnership with DPIPWE, are participants in this international conservation project, led by Kew Gardens in the UK, that aims to provide an “insurance policy” against the extinction of plants in the wild by storing seeds for future use. The construction of a Seed Bank facility is under way. The project aims to collect seed from most of Tasmania’s rare and threatened flora, including plant species identified as potentially at risk from climate change.

Monitoring the impacts of climate change on key natural assets

Monitoring is an integral part of managing natural values in the light of climate change. It is needed to detect change, trends, and trends in condition of natural assets and to identify thresholds for management actions for active crisis intervention for priority assets. Monitoring will inform land managers (and researchers) on the adoption of appropriate adaptive management strategies in the face of climate change.

A review of current monitoring data and pre-existing vegetation datasets that might be suitable for monitoring the impacts of climate change has been undertaken for Tasmania (Brown 2009a), with a more detailed assessment for the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (Brown 2009b).

58 Responding to Climate Change

Monitoring in buttongrass plots established in 1986 on the Propsting Range in Western Tasmania . This is one of several mountain ranges

in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area where long-term data is being used to monitor the impacts of climate

change on the vegetation of mountain tops . This project is being undertaken in conjunction with the University of Tasmania . (Photo: Mick Brown)

Glossary of Terms

8.Adaptation

Adjustment in natural or human systems over time to a new or changing environment, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation:

- Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed (also referred to as proactive adaptation).

- Autonomous adaptation – Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems (also referred to as spontaneous adaptation).

- Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state.

Adaptive management

A systematic process for continually improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of operational programs - put simply this refers to “learning by doing”.

Biodiversity

The variability among living organisms from all sources such as terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part. It encompasses diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems. It is derived from the term ‘biological diversity’.

Biome

A regional ecosystem with a distinct assemblage of vegetation, animals and physical environment often reflecting a certain climate and soil, and often defined by the dominant lifeform (e.g. grassland, wetland)

Carbon sink

Pool or reservoir that absorbs or takes up released carbon from another part of the carbon cycle. The four sinks are the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere (usually including freshwater systems), oceans, and sediments. The process by which carbon sinks remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is known as carbon sequestration. The opposite term is carbon source.

Climate

‘Average weather’ described in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities such as temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. Climate can also be used to describe the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. The classical period of time is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization.

Climate change

Changes in the state of the climate system over time due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods.”

Connectivity

The extent to which ecosystems are joined to each other that allows organisms to move across the landscape and interact with each other (e.g. breeding, gene exchange).

59

Ecological community

A naturally co-occurring assemblage of species that occur in a particular type of habitat (e.g. forest, alpine). Also referred to as community.

Ecological processes

Physical, chemical and biological actions or events that play an essential part in maintaining ecosystem integrity. Four fundamental ecological processes are the cycling of water, the cycling of nutrients, the flow of energy, and biodiversity (as an expression of the process of evolution).

Ecosystem

A dynamic and complex system of living organisms and their physical environment interacting with each other as a functional unit. The extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to the entire Earth.

Ecosystem approach

The ecosystem approach is a strategy for the integrated management of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. At the Fifth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biodiversity in 2000 the ecosystem approach was adopted as the primary framework for the implementation of the Convention.

Ecosystem services

The benefits derived from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and water, regulating services such as flood and disease control, cultural services, such as spiritual, recreational and cultural benefits, and supporting services, such as nutrient cycling, that maintain the conditions for life on Earth. Also referred to as ecosystem goods and services.

Endemic

Native flora and fauna species that are naturally restricted to a specified region or locality. Tasmanian endemic species are restricted in their distribution in Tasmania.

Global warming

Gradual increase, observed or projected, in global surface temperature, referred to as the global temperature, as one of the consequences of the enhanced greenhouse effect, which is induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gas (GHG)

Gaseous constituents such as water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) in the atmosphere. These gases, both natural and anthropogenic, can absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, and by clouds causing the warming greenhouse effect.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)

The Fourth Assessment by Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) is an assessment of current scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems, and the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability.

Mitigation

A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Natural values

This term covers the range of biodiversity and geodiversity native to a given area.

60 Glossar y of Terms

Novel climate

Future climate lacking a modern analogue, characterized by e.g. high seasonality of temperature, warmer than any present climate globally, with spatially variable shifts in precipitation, and increase in the risk of species reshuffling into future no-analog communities. Novel climates are projected to develop primarily in the tropics and subtropics.

Ocean acidification

A decrease in the pH of seawater due to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide.

Refugia

Evolutionary refugia are regions in which certain types or suites of organisms are able to persist during a period in which most of the original geographic range becomes uninhabitable because of climate change. Thus they are areas reflecting past environmental regimes and which contain high numbers of endemic species. The term may also be used by ecologists to mean a region where a species or a suite of species persist for short periods when large parts of their habitat become unusable because of changed conditions e.g. from fire, drought or flooding.

Resilience

The ability of a system to absorb impacts before a threshold is reached where the system changes to a different state (also referred to as ecological resilience).

Sea level rise

Increase in the mean level of the ocean. Eustatic sea level rise is a change in global average sea level brought about by an increase in the volume of the world ocean. Relative sea level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land level subsidence. In areas subject to rapid land-level uplift, relative sea level can fall.

Terrestrial ecosystems

A community of organisms and their environment that occurs on the landmasses of continents and islands.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

192 countries around the world have joined an international treaty that sets general goals and rules for confronting climate change. The Convention has the goal of preventing “dangerous” human interference with the climate system. The UNFCCC was one of three conventions adopted at the 1992 “Rio Earth Summit.” The other conventions (the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification) involve matters strongly affected by climate change. Attempts are being made to coordinate the work of the three agreements.

Upwelling

Movement of water from depth to the surface, usually enriching upper waters with nutrients from deeper waters.

61

Acton, D.F. and Gregorich, L.J. 2004. Understanding Soil Health, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, http://res2.agr.gc.ca/publications/hs/chap01_e.htm viewed 2nd August, 2004.

Albritton, D. L., Allen, M. R. (With 47 other authors). 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis . Summary for Policymakers . Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 20.

Allen Consulting Group. 2005. Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting an efficient adaptation response in Australia . Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra. ISBN: 1 920840 94 X

Amundson, R. 2001. The carbon budget in soils. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 29, 535-562.

Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. 2007. Climate Futures for Tasmania: Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options, Hobart, Australia, October 2007.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2008. Special Climate Statement 16 . Long-term rainfall deficiencies continue in southern Australia while wet conditions dominate the north . Melbourne, Australia.

Australian Government. 2007. National Climate Change Adaptation Framework, Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra.

Australian Government. 2009. Second Generation Biofuels Development and Research Program . Department of Resources Energy and Tourism, Canberra.

Australian Greenhouse Office. 2005. Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting an efficient adaptation response in Australia . Canberra, Australia.

Australian Greenhouse Office. 2003. Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts, Canberra, Australia.

Australian National University. 2009. Implications of climate change for Australia’s World Heritage properties: A preliminary assessment . A report to the Department of Climate Change and the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts by the Fenner School of Environment and Society, the Australian National University, Canberra.

Balmer, J. and Whinam, J. 1991. Vegetation within the Tasmanian World Heritage Area. Tasforests 3, 63-73.

Balmer, J., Whinam, J., Kelman, J., Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Lazarus, E. 2004. A review of the floristic values of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. Nature Conservation Report 2004/3 . DPIWE, Hobart, Australia

Barnes, D.K.A., Hodgson, D.A., Convey, P., Allen, C.S. and Clarke, A. 2006. Incursion and excursion of Antarctic biota: past, present and future. Global Ecol . Biogeogr ., 15, 121-142.

Barson, M., 2004. Carbon Sinks and Carbon Budgets for Soil and Vegetation Resources, National Land and Water Resources Audit, Commonwealth of Australia, http://www.nlwra.gov.au/minimal/30_themes_and_projects.htm viewed 16th August, 2004.

Bierwagen, B. G., Thomas R., and Kane, A. 2008. Capacity of management plans for aquatic invasive species to integrate climate change. Conservation Biology 22 (3), 568-574.

Bird, E.C.F. 1985. Coastline Changes: A Global Review . John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 219 pp.

Bishop, M.J. and Kelaher, B.P. 2007. Impacts of detrital enrichment on estuarine assemblages: disentangling effects of frequency and intensity of disturbance. Marine Ecology Progress Series . 341, 25-36.

62 References

References

9.

Blackhall, S.A., Lynch, A.J. and Corbett, C. 1996. Tasmania. In: Environment Australia. A Directory of Important Wetlands in Australia, Second Edition . Australian Nature Conservation Agency, Canberra.

Bloor, J.M.G., Barthes, L. and Leadley, P. W. 2008. Effects of elevated CO2 and N on tree–grass interactions: an experimental test using Fraxinus excelsior and Dactylis glomerata . Functional Ecology, 22 (3), 537 – 546.

Bowden, A.R. 1983. Relict terrestrial dunes: legacies of a former climate in coastal northeastern Tasmania. Zeitschift für Geomorphologie Supplement 45,153-174.

Bowling, L.C. and Tyler, P.A. 1988. Lake Chisolm, a polyhumic forest lake in Tasmania. Hydrobiologia 161, 55-67.

Bowling, L.C., Banks, M.R., Croome, R.L. and Tyler P.A. 1993. Reconnaissance limnology of Tasmania II. Limnological features of Tasmanian freshwater coastal lagoons. Archiv fur Hydrobiologie 126 (4), 385-403.

Bowman, D. M. J. S. and Brown, M. J. 1986. Bushfires in Tasmania: a botanical approach to anthropological questions. Archaeology in Oceania 21, 166-171.

Bradley, R.S. 1999. Climate variability in sixteenth-century Europe and its social dimension – Preface. Climate Change, 43 (1), 1-2.

Bradstock, R., Williams, J. and Gill, M. 2002. Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent . Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK. 462 pp.

Bridgman, H.A., Warner, R.F. and Dodson, J.R. 1995. Urban Biophysical Environments. Oxford University Press, Melbourne, Australia.

Brierley, G. J. and Fryirs, K. A. 2005. Geomorphology and River Management: Applications of the River Styles Framework. Blackwell Publications, Oxford, UK.,

Brothers, N., Pemberton, D., Pryor, H. and Halley, V. 2001. Tasmania’s Offshore Islands: Seabirds and other Natural Features . Tasmania Museum & Art Gallery, Hobart.

Brown M. J., Balmer J. and Podger F. D. 2002. Vegetation change over twenty years at Bathurst Harbour, Tasmania. Australian Journal of Botany 50, 499–510.

Brown, M.J, Kirkpatrick, J.B and Moscal, A. 1983. An Atlas of Tasmania’s Endemic Flora . Tasmanian Conservation Trust, Hobart.

Brown, M.J. 1988. Distribution and Conservation of King Billy pine. Forestry Commission, Hobart.

Brown, M.J. 1996. Benign neglect and active management in Tasmania’s forests – a dynamic balance of ecological collapse. Forest Ecology & Management 85, 279-289.

Brown M.J. 2009a. Towards Tasmanian Vegetation Monitoring Program Inclusive of Climate Change. Unpublished report to the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart.

Brown, M.J. 2009b. Monitoring the Impact of Climate Change on the Flora and Vegetation Values of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area: A Review. Unpublished report to the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart.

Bruce, B.D. and Green, M.A. 1998. Spotted Handfish Recovery Plan . Environment Australia, Canberra.

Bruun, P. 1962. Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion. Journal of the Waterways and Harbors Division 8, 117-130.

Bugmann, H., Zierl, B. and Schumacher, S. 2005. Projecting the impacts of climate change on mountain forests and landscapes. In: , U.M. Huber, H.K.M. Bugmann and M.A. Reasoner (Eds). Global Change and Mountain Regions: An Overview of Current Knowledge, Springer, Berlin, 477-488.

63

Bureau of Meteorology. 2009. Climate Change, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ accessed 3rd March 2009.

Cai, W. 2006. Antarctic ozone depletion causes an intensification of the Southern Ocean supergyre circulation. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L03712. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 507-540.

Calder J.A. and Kirkpatrick J.B. 2008. Climate change and other factors influencing the decline of the Tasmanian cider gum (Eucalyptus gunnii) . Australian Journal of Botany 56 (8), 684–692.

Campbell, A. 2008. Managing Australia’s Soils, a policy discussion paper. National Committee for Soil and Terrain.

Campbell, A. 2008. Managing Australian Landscapes in a Changing Climate: A climate change primer for regional Natural Resource Management bodies . Report to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra, Australia.

Campbell, A., Miles. L., Lysenko, I., Hughes, A. and Gibbs, H. 2008. Carbon storage in protected areas: Technical report . UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre.

Carter, O., Murphy, A.M. and Cheal, D. 2002. Natural Temperate Grasslands. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Melbourne Australia.

Cary, G. J. 2002. Importance of a changing climate for fire regimes in Australia. In: R. A. Bradstock, J. E. Williams, and A. M. Gill (Eds). Flammable Australia: the Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 26-46.

CCSP 2009. Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems. Reston, VA, U.S. Geological Survey: 56 pp.

CFEV database, v1.0. 2005. Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystem Values Project, Water Resources Division, Department of Primary Industries and Water, Tasmania, periodic updating.

Chambers, L. E., Hughes, L. and Weston, M. A. 2005. Climate change and its impacts on Australian’s avifauna. Emu 105, 1-20.

Chiew, F. 2007. Simple rule of thumb for estimating hydrologic sensitivity to climate. Water Research Highlights Issue1.

Chiew, F. 2009. Compounding impact of lower rainfall on stream flows. Australian Landcare: 16-17.

Church, J.A. and Gregory, J.M., (co-ordinating lead authors, with 34 other authors) 2001. Changes in Sea Level; in: J.T. Houghton et al . (Eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, p. 639-693.

Church, J.A. and White, N.J. 2006. A 20th Century acceleration in global sea-level rise; Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024826, 4 pp.

Church, J.A., White, N.J., Hunter, J.R. and Lambeck, K. 2008. Briefing: a post-IPCC AR4 update on sea-level rise . The Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre.

Cleland, E.E., Chiariello, N.R., Loarie, S.R., Mooney, H.A. and Field, C.B. 2006. Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America . 103(37) 13740 – 13744.

Commonwealth of Australia. 2009. Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coast: A First Pass National Assessment . Department of Climate Change, Canberra.

Conacher, A. and Conacher, J. 1995. Rural Degradation in Australia, Oxford University Press, Melbourne.

Copson, G. and Whinam, J. 2001. Review of ecological restoration programs on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island: Pest management progress and future directions. Ecological Management and Restoration 2 (2), 129-138.

64 References

Corney, S.P., Katzfey, J.K., McGregor, J., Grose M., White, C., Holz, G., Bennett, J., Gaynor, S., Bindoff N.L. 2010. Climate Futures for Tasmania: methods and results on climate modelling. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart.

Costanza, R., D’Arge, R. de Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, K., Naeem, S., O’Neill, R.V., Paruelo, J., Raskin, R.G., Sutton, P. and van den Belt, M. 1997. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387, 253-260.

Cotching, W.E., Cooper, J., Sparrow, L.A., McCorkell, B.E. and Rowley, W. 2001. Effects of agricultural management on sodosols in northern Tasmania. Australian Journal of Soil Researc .h . Vol. 39 (4), 711-735.

Cotching, W.E., Cooper, J., Sparrow, L.A., McCorkell, B.E. and Rowley, W. 2002a. Effects of agricultural management on dermosols in northern Tasmania. Australian Journal of Soil Research . Vol. 40 (1), 65-79.

Cotching, W.E., Cooper, J., Sparrow, L.A., McCorkell, B.E. and Rowley, W. 2002b. Effects of agricultural management on tenosols in northern Tasmania. Australian Journal of Soil Research . Vol. 40 (1), 45-63.

Cotching. W.E., Hawkins, K., Sparrow, L.A., McCorkell, B.E. and Rowley, W. 2002c. Crop yields and soil properties on eroded slopes of red ferrosols in north-west Tasmania. Australian Journal of Soil Research. Vol. 40, 625-642.

Cotching. W.E., Cooper, J., Sparrow, L.A., McCorkell, B.E., Rowley, W. and Hawkins, K. 2002d. Effects of agricultural management on Vertosols in Tasmania. Australian Journal of Soil Research. Vol. 40 (8), 1267-1286.

Cotching, W.E., Sparrow, L.A., Hawkins, K., McCorkell, B.E. and Rowley, W. 2004. Linking Tasmanian potato and poppy yields to selected soil physical and chemical properties. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture. 44, 1241-1249.

Crawford, C., Edgar, G. and Cresswell, G. 2000. The Tasmanian Region. In Seas at the Millenium - an Environmental Evaluation, vol. 3 (Ed. C. Sheppard). Elsevier Science Ltd., Amsterdam.

Crisp, M.D., Laffan, S., Linder, H.P. and Monro, A. 2001. Endemism in the Australian flora. Journal of Biogeography, Volume 28 (2), 183-198.

CSIRO 2007. Climate change in Australia - Technical report. Canberra, CSIRO.

CSIRO 2009. Climate change projections and impacts on runoff for Tasmania. Report two of seven to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.

Cubasch, U., Meehl, G.A., Boer, G.J., Stouffer R.J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C.A., Raper, S. and Yap, K.S. 2001. Projections of future climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 525-582.

Cullen, P.J. 1998. Coastal dunes of South West Tasmania: Their morphology, genesis and conservation. Occasional Paper, Parks and Wildlife Service Tasmania, Hobart.

Daszak,P., Cunningham A.A. and Hyatt, A.D. 2000. Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife: threats to biodiversity and human health, Science 287, 443-449.

Dayton, P.K., Tegner, M.J., Edwards, P.B. and Riser, K.L. 1998. Sliding baselines, ghosts, and reduced expectations in kelp forest communities , Ecological Applications 8, 309-322.

65

Department of Arts, Sport, the Environment, Tourism and Territories (DASETT). 1989. Nomination of the Tasmanian Wilderness by the Government of Australia for inclusion in the World Heritage List; nomination to World Heritage Committee, UNESCO, Paris, prepared by The Commonwealth Department of the Arts, Sport, Environment, Tourism and Territories and Government of the State of Tasmania.

Department of Environment and Heritage. 2006. Management of Phytophthora cinnamomi for Biodiversity Conservation in Australia Part 2 - National Best Practice Guidelines/Appendix 3.

Department of Environment, Sport and Territories (DEST) in association with the Tasmanian Parks and Wildlife Service. 1996. Nomination of Macquarie Island by the Government of Australia for Inscription on the World Heritage List .

Department of Primary Industries and Water. 2007. Tasmanian Salinity Strategy, Dept of Primary Industries and Water, Hobart.

Department of Primary Industries and Water. 2008a. Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystem Values (CFEV) Project Technical Report . Hobart, Tasmania. Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystem Values Program, Department of Primary Industries and Water.

Department of Primary Industries and Water. 2008b. Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystem Values (CFEV) Project Technical Report: Appendices. Hobart, Tasmania, Conservation of Freshwater Ecosystem Values Project. Department of Primary Industries and Water.

Driessen M.M. and Mallick, S.A. 2003. The vertebrate fauna of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Pacific Conservation Biology 9, 187-206.

Dukes, J.S. and Mooney, H.A. 1999. Does global change increase the success of biological invaders? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 14, 135-139.

Dunlop, M. and Brown, P.R. 2008. Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment. Report to the Department of Climate Change, February 2008. Department of Climate Change, Canberra, Australia.

Edgar, G.J., Barrett, N.S. and Graddon, D.J. 1999. A classification of Tasmanian estuaries and assessment of their conservation significance using ecological and physical attributes, population and land use. Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute Technical Series Report 2,. 205 pp.

Edgar, G.J. and Dept. of Primary Industries and Water. 2007. Marine and estuarine ecosystems in the Port Davey-Bathurst Harbour region: biodiversity, threats and management options . A report by Aquenal Pty Ltd to the Department of Primary Industries and Water, Tasmania, Hobart.

Edgar, G.J., Moverley, J., Peters, D. and Reed, C. 1996. Regional Classification of Tasmanian Coastal Waters and preliminary identification of representative marine protected area sites. Australian Nature Conservation Agency. Canberra

Edgar G. J. and Samson C. R. 2004. Catastrophic decline in mollusc diversity in eastern Tasmania and its concurrence with shellfish fisheries. Conservation Biology 18 (6), 1579-1588.

Edgar, G.J., Samson, C.R. and Barrett, N.S. 2005. Species Extinction in the Marine Environment: Tasmania as a Regional Example of Overlooked Losses in Biodiversity. Conservation Biology 19, 1294-1300.

Edwards, K. 1993. Soil Formation and Erosion Rates. In: PEV Charman and BW Murphy (Eds). Soils: their properties and management . Sydney University Press, Sydney, pp. 36-47.

66 References

Edyvane, K. 2003. Conservation, monitoring and recovery of Threatened Giant Kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) beds in Tasmania - Final Report, Natural Heritage Trust project final report to Environment Australia, Published by Department of Primary Industries, Water and Environment, Hobart.

Environment Canada. 2004. Canada’s National Wildlife Disease Strategy, Environment Canada, September 2004.

Epstein, P.R. Climate change and emerging infectious diseases. 2001. Microbes Infect . 3, 747-754.

Fabry, V.J., Seibel, B.A., Feely, R.A. and Orr, J.C. 2008. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes. ICES Journal of Marine Science . 65 (3), 414-432.

Fensham, R. J. and Kirkpatrick, J. B. 1989. The conservation of original vegetation remnants in the Midlands, Tasmania. Papers & Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 123, 229-246.

Finlayson, C.M., R. D’Cruz, N. Davidson, J. Alder, S. Cork, R. de Groot, C. Leveque, G.R. Milton, G. Peterson, D. Pritchard, B.D. Ratner, W.V. Reid, C. Revenga, M. Rivera, F. Schutyser, M. Siebentritt, M. Stuip, R. Tharme, S. Butchart, E. Dieme-Amting, H. Gitay, S. Raaymakers and D. Taylor (Eds). 2005. Ecosystems

and HumanWell-being: Wetlands and Water Synthesis . Island Press, Washington, District of Columbia, 80 pp.

Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona and A.A. Velichko. 2007. Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof P.J, van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 211-272.

Foden, W., Mace, G., Vie, J.C., Angulo, A., Butchart, S., DeVantier, L., Gutache, A., Stuart, S. and Tursk, E. 2008. Species susceptibility to climate change impacts. In: JC Vie, C. Hitch-Taylor and SN Stuart (Eds). The 2008 Review of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, IUCN Gland, Switzerland.

Fulton, W., Tyler, P. A., Chilcott, S., Knott, B., Ponder, W. and Shiel, R. J. 1993. Fauna and flora of the lakes and tarns. Tasmanian Wilderness-World Heritage Values . S. J. Smith and M. R. Banks. Hobart, Royal Society of Tasmania. Pp.109-113.

Garnaut, R. 2008. Garnaut Climate Change Review Interim Report To the Commonwealth, State and Territory Governments of Australia . Canberra, Department of Climate Change.

Gillin, C.M., Tabor, G.M. and Aguirre, A.A. 2002. Ecological Health and Wildlife Disease Management in National Parks, In (Ed, Pearl, M.C.), Conservation Medicine, Ecological Health in Practice Oxford University Press, New York. Pp. 253-264.

Gitay, H., Brown, S., Easterling, W. and Jallow, B. 2001. Ecosystems and their goods and services. In: J.J.McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken and K.S. White (Eds), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Pp. 237-342.

Gordon, H.B., Rotstayn, L.D., McGregor, J.L., Dix, M.R., Kowalczyk, E.A., O’Farrell, S.P., Waterman, L.J., Hirst, A.C., Wilson, S.G., Collier, M.A., Watterson, I.G. and Elliott, T.I. 2002. The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model . CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 60. 130 pp.

67

Gran Canaria Group 2006. Gran Canaria Declaration on Climate Change and Plant Conservation. http://www.bgci.org/ourwork/gcdccpc/

Green, K. and Pickering, C.M. 2002. A scenario for mammal and bird diversity in the Snowy Mountains of Australia in relation to climate change. In: Korner, C. and Spehn, E. (Eds) Mountain Biodiversity: A Global Assessment . pp. 239-247. The Parthenon Publishing Group, London, UK.

Grice, M.S. 1995. Soil and Land Degradation on Private Freehold Land in Tasmania, Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries, Tasmania.

Grose, M., Barnes-Keoghan, I., Corney, S.P., White, C., Holz, G., Bennett, J., Gaynor, S. and Bindoff, N.L. 2010. Climate Futures for Tasmania: general climate. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart.

Guinotte, J.M. and Fabry, V.J. 2008. Ocean Acidification and Its Potential Effects on Marine Ecosystems. The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology 1134, 320-342.

Gunderson, L.H. and Holling, C.S. (Eds). 2001. Panarchy – understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press, Washington DC, USA. 507 pp

Harris, S and Kitchener, A. 2005. From Forest to Fjaeldmark: Descriptions of Tasmania’s Vegetation . Department of Primary Industries, Water and Environment, Printing Authority of Tasmania. Hobart.

Heller, N.E. and Zavaleta, E.S. 2009. Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation, 142:1, 14-32.

Helsham. 1988. Report of the Commission of Inquiry into the Lemonthyme and Southern Forests . DEST. Australian Government Publishing Service. Canberra.

Hemer, M.A., McInnes, K., Church, J.A., O’Grady, J. and Hunter, J. R. 2008. Variability and trends in the Australian wave climate and consequent coastal vulnerability . Report for Department of Climate Change, Canberra.

Henman, J. and Poulter, B. 2008. Inundation of freshwater peatlands by sea level rise: Uncertainty and potential carbon cycle feedbacks. Journal of Geophysical Research- Biogeosciences, 113.

Hennessy, K., Fitzharris, B., Bates, B.C. Harvey, N., Howden, S.M., Hughes, L., Salinger, J. and Warrick, R. 2007. Australia and New Zealand. In: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds.)

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Hennessy, K., Lucas., C., Nicholls, N., Bathols, J., Suppiah, R. and Ricketts, J. 2005. Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia . Consultancy report for the New South Wales Greenhouse Office, Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Water and Environment, and the Australian Greenhouse Office. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology: Aspendale, Victoria. 78 pp.

Hennessy, K. J., Whetton, P. H., Bathols, J., Hutchinson, M. and Sharples, J. 2003. The impact of climate change on snow conditions in Australia . Consultancy report for the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Australian Greenhouse Office and the Australian Ski Areas Association. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research: Aspendale.) 47 pp.

68 References

Henwood, W.D. 2010. Toward a strategy for the conservation and protection of the world’s temperate grasslands. Great Plains Research 20:121-134.

Hill, R.S., Macphail, M.K. and Jordan, G.J. 1999. Tertiary History and origins of the Flora and Vegetation. In: Reid, J.B., Hill, R.S., Brown, M.J. and Hovenden, M.J. (Eds). Vegetation of Tasmania . Flora of Australia, Supplementary Series, Number 8. Australian Biological Resources Study, Canberra.

Hobday, A.J., Okey, T.A., Poloczanska, E.S., Kunz, T.J. and Richardson, A.J. (Eds) 2006. Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life: Part A . Executive Summary . Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia. September 2006.

Hobday, A.J., Poloczanska, E.S. and Mattear R. (Eds) 2008 Introduction: Climate and Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture. in: Hobday, A.J., Poloczanska, E.S., and Mattear R. (Eds) 2008. Implications of climate change for Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture: A Preliminary Assessment . Report to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra. August 2008.

Hocking, M. 2007. Tasmanian NAP - Regional salinity data audit. National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality. Unpublished report

Hope, G.S., Whinam, J. and Good, R. 2005. Methods and preliminary results of post fire experimental trials of restoration techniques in the peatlands of Namadgi (ACT) and Kosciuszko National Parks (NSW). Ecological Management and Restoration, 6, 215-218.

House of Representatives Standing Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts, 2009. Managing our coastal zone in a changing climate . Report to the Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra.

Houshold, I., Chappell, J. and Fifield, K. 2007. Geomorphic response to intraplate neotectonics - Birchs Inlet, South West Tasmania . Proc. 11th conference of the Australian and New Zealand Geomorphology Group, Taipa Bay.

Hovenden, M.J. 2008. Does the increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 mean more productive forests? Proceedings of ‘Old Forest, New Management’ Sir Mark Oliphant Conference, 17-21 February 2008, Hobart Australia.

Hughes, L., Cawsey, E.M. and Westoby, M. 1996. Climatic range sizes of Eucalyptus species in relation to future climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters 5, 23-39

Hughes, L. 2000. Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 15, 56–61.

Hughes, L. 2003. Ecological Interactions. In: Climate Change and Biodiversity: Synergistic Impacts, L Hannah and T Lovejoy (Eds.) Advances in Applied Biodiversity Science 4. Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International: Washington, DC.

Hunter, J., R. Coleman R. and Pugh, D. 2003. The Sea Level at Port Arthur, Tasmania, from 1841 to the Present (DOI 10.1029/2002GL016813). Geophysical Research Letters 30 (7), 54.

Hutchinson, M. F., McIntyre, S., Hobbs, R. J., Stein, J. L., Garnett, S. and Kinloch, J. 2005. Integrating a global agro-climatic classification with bioregional boundaries in Australia. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14, 197-212.

Jackson W.D. 1999. The legacy of man and fire. Papers & Proc . Roy . Soc . of Tas. 133 (1), 1-14.

Jansen, E., Overpeck, J., Briffa, K.R., Duplessy, I.C., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, V., Olago, D.O., Otto-Bliesner, B., Richard Pelteir, W.M., Rahmstorf, S., Ramesh, R., Raynaud, D., Rind, D.H., Solomina, O. Villalba, R. and Zhang, D. 2007. Paleoclimate. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M.,

69

Manning, Z. Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.Miller (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 434-496.

Jarman, S.J., Kantvilas, G. and Brown, M.J. 1988. A Preliminary Study of Stem Ages in Buttongrass Moorlands . Research Report No. 3. Tasmanian Forest Research Council, Hobart.

Jennings, J. N. 1959. The coastal geomorphology of King Island, Bass Strait, in relation to changed in the relative level of land and sea. Records of the Queen Victoria Museum, Launceston New Series 11, 1-37.

Jerie, K., Houshold I. and Peters, D. 2003. Tasmania’s river geomorphology: stream character and regional analysis, volume 1 . Hobart, Nature Conservation Branch, Department of Primary Industries, Water and Environment.

Johnson, C.R., Ling, S.D., Ross, D.J., Shepherd, S. and Miller, K.J. 2005. Establishment of the long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) in Tasmania: first assessment of potential threats to fisheries. Project Report. School of Zoology and Tasmanian Aquaculture and

Fisheries Institute, Hobart, Tasmania.

Joint ANZECC / MCFFA National Forest Policy Statement Implementation Sub-committee (JANIS). 1997. Nationally Agreed Criteria for the Establishment of a Comprehensive, Adequate and Representative Reserve System for Forests in Australia, Commonwealth of Australia 1997

Jones, D., Wang, W. and Fawcett, R. 2007. Climate Data for the Australian Water Availability Project, Final Milestone Report, October 2007, Bureau of Meteorology.

Kidd, D., Cotching, W.E., Dolbey, B., Gay, Q., Grose, C., Hawkins, H., Hawkins, K., McDonald, D., Moreton, R., Novakowski, A., Priestly, T., Rodgers, D., Scholz, G., and Tate, S. 2009. Soil Condition Evaluation and Monitoring (SCEAM), Tasmania . Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and the Environment, Tasmania.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1982. Phytogeographical Analysis of Tasmanian Alpine Floras. Journal of Biogeography . 9 (3), 255-271.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1983. Treeless plant communities of the Tasmanian high country. Proc . Ecol . Soc . Aust. 12, 61-77.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1986. Tasmanian alpine biogeography and ecology and interpretations of the past. In: B.A. Barlow (Ed.) Flora and Flora of Alpine Australasia. CSIRO, Melbourne. pp. 229-42.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1989. The comparative ecology of mainland Australia and Tasmanian alpine vegetation. In: R. Good (Ed.) The Scientific Significance of the Australian Alps . Proceedings of the First Fenner Conference on the Environment. Canberra, September, 1988. The Australian Alps Liaison Committee, Canberra. pp.127-142.

Kirkpatrick, J. B. 1997. Identification of habitats of rare and threatened plant species and communities in Tasmania . Tasmanian Conservation Trust, Hobart.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Bridle, K. 1998. Environmental relationships of floristic variation in the alpine vegetation of southeast Australia, Journal of Vegetation Science, 9 (2), 251-260.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Bridle, K. 1999. Environment and Floristics of Ten Australian Alpine Vegetation Formations, Australian Journal of Botany, 47 (1), 1-21.

70 References

Kirkpatrick, J.B., Bridle, K. and Lynch, A.J.J. 2002. Changes in alpine vegetation related to geomorphological processes and climatic change on Hill One, Southern Range, Tasmania, 1989-2000, Australian Journal of Botany, 50 (6), 753-759.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Brown, M.J. 1984. A numerical analysis of Tasmanian higher plant endemism. Bot . J . Linn . Soc. 88, 165-183.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Harris, S. 1999. Coastal, Heath and Wetland Vegetation. In: Reid, J.B., Hill, R.S., Brown, M.J. and Hovenden, M.J. (Eds). Vegetation of Tasmania. Flora of Australia, Supplementary Series, Number 8. Australian Biological Resources Study, Canberra.

Kirkpatrick, J. B. and Harwood, C. E. 1983. Plant communities of Tasmanian wetlands. Australian Journal of Botany 31, 437-451.

Kirkpatrick J.B., McDougall, K. and Hyde, M. 1995. Australia’s most threatened ecosystem - the southeastern lowland native grasslands, Surrey-Beatty & Sons, Chipping Norton, Sydney, pp. 116.

Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Tyler, P.A. 1988. Tasmanian wetlands and their conservation. In; McComb, A.J and Lake, P.S. (Eds). The conservation of Australian wetlands, 1-16. Surrey Beatty & Sons, Sydney.

Kirschbaum, M. and Fischlin, A. 1996. Climate change impacts on forests. In: R. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (Eds). Climate Change 1995: Impacts; Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change . Scientific-Technical Analysis. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. pp. 95-129.

Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mata, L.J., Arnell, N.W., Döll, P. Kabat, P., Jiménez,B., Miller, K.A., Oki, T., Sen, Z. and Shiklomanov, I.A. 2007. Freshwater resources and their management. In: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp. 173-210.

Lal, R. 2004, Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change, Geoderma, www.sciencedirect.com viewed 16th August, 2004.

Laurance, W. F. 2008. Global warming and amphibian extinctions in eastern Australia. Austral Ecology 33(1), 1-9.

Leakey A.D.B., Uribellarea E.A., Ainsworth E.A., Naidu S.L., Rogers A., Ort D.R. and Long S.L. 2006. Photosynthesis, Productivity, and Yield of Maize Are Not Affected by Open-Air Elevation of CO2 Concentration in the Absence of Drought. Plant Physiol . 140, 779-790.

Lemke, P., J. Ren, R.Alley, I.Allison, J. Carrasco, G. Flato, Y. Fujii, G. Kaser, P. Mote, R. Thomas and T. Zhang. 2007. Observations: changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Pp. 335-383.

Leslie, L.M., Karoly, D. J., Leplastrier, M. and Buckley, B. W. 2007. Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics . 97, 171-180.

Lettenmaier, D., Major, D., Poff, L. and Running, S. 2008. Water Resources. In: P. Backlund, A. Janetos,D. Schimel, J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, L. Hahn, C. Izaurralde, B.A. Kimball, T. Mader,

71

J. Morgan, D. Ort, W. Polley, A. Thomson, D. Wolfe, M.G. Ryan, S.R. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L. Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman,G. Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson, W. Schlesinger, D. Lettenmaier, D. Major, L. Poff, S. Running, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, B.P. Kelly, L. Meyerson, B. Peterson, R. Shaw. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States . A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, DC., USA, 362 pp.

Lindenmayer, D. B. 2007. On Borrowed Time: Australia’s environmental crisis and what we must do about it . Penguin Books, Camberwell, Victoria.

Ling S.D., Johnson, C.R., Ridgway, K., Hobday, A. J. and Haddon M. 2009. Climate-driven range extension of a sea urchin: inferring future trends by analysis of recent population dynamics. Global Change Biology 15, 719–731.

Lomas,M.W., Glibert, P.M., Shiah, F. and Smith, E.M. 2002. Microbial process and temperature in Chesapeake Bay: Current relationships and potential impacts of regional warming. Global Change Biology 8, 51-70.

Low T. 2008. Climate Change and Invasive Species . A Report to the Biological Diversity Advisory Committee on a workshop held in Canberra in 2006, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, ACT.

Lucas, C., Hennessy, K., Mills, G. and Bathols, J. 2007. Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change Impacts. Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, Melbourne. 80 pp.

Lundie-Jenkins, G. 1993. Ecology of the rufous hare-wallaby, Lagorchestes hirsutus Gould Marsupialia : Macropodidae) in the Tanami Desert, Northern Territory. Patterns of habitat use. Wildlife Research 20, 457–475.

Luyssaert, S., Schulze, E.D., Börner,A., Knohl,A., Hessenmöller, D., Law,B.E., Ciais,P. and Grace,J. 2008. Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks. Nature 455, 213-215.

Mack, R.N., D. Simberloff, W.M. Lonsdale, H. Evans, M. Clout and F. Bazzaz. 2000. Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences and control. Issues Ecol. 5, 2-22.

Mackey, B. G., Lindenmayer, D. B., Gill, M., McCarthy, M. and Lindesay, J. 2002. Wildlife, Fire and Future Climate: A Forest Ecosystem Analysis . CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne. pp. 188.

Manning, A.D. 2007. Ecosystems, Ecosystem Process and Global Change: Implications for Landscape Design. In: D.B. Lindenmayer and R.J. Hobbs (Eds). Managing and Designing Landscapes for Conservation.. Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 349-364.

Mallick, S.A., and Driessen M.M. 2005. An inventory of invertebrates of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. Pacific Conservation Biology11, 198-211.

Mallon, K. 2007. Climate change impacts on marine and coastal birds. Waves 13, 10.

Mansergh, I and Cheal, D. 2007. Protected area planning and management for eastern Australian temperate forests and woodland ecosystems under climate change – a landscape approach. In: M. Taylor M. and P. Figgis (Eds). Protected Areas: Buffering nature against climate change . Proceedings of a WWF and IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas symposium, 18-19 June 2007, Canberra . WWF Australia, Sydney.

Marsden-Smedley, J.B. 1993. Fire Behaviour and Fuel Characteristics in Tasmanian Buttongrass Moorlands . Parks and Wildlife Service, Department of Environment and Land Management, Tasmania.

72 References

Marsden-Smedley, J.B., Rudman, T., Pyrke, A. and Catchpole, W.R. 1999. Buttongrass Moorland Fire-Behaviour Prediction and Management. Tasforests, 11, 87-98.

McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F. and Leary, N.A. 2001. Climate change 2001:Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to Third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York, 2001, Cambridge University Press, section 9.7. www.grdia.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/358.htm.

McIntosh, P., Pook, M. and McGregor, J. 2005. Study of Future and Current Climate: A Scenario for the Tasmanian Region, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Australia.

McKenzie, N. and Chartres, C. 2004, Soil Quality, National Land and Water Resources Audit, Commonwealth of Australia, http://www.nlwra.gov.au/minimal/30_themes_and_projects.htm viewed 16th August, 2004.

McMullen, C.P. 2009. Climate Change Science Compendium . United Nations Environment Program, New York.

Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins, W., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A., Gregory, J., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J., Noda, A., Raper, S., Watterson, I., Weaver, A. and Zhao, Z.C. 2007. Global climate projections. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin,M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Pp 747-845.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis . World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.

Moore, R.M. (Ed.) 1970. Australian Grasslands . Australian National University Press, Canberra.

Morgan, J.A., Pataki, D.E., Korner, C., Clark, H., Del Grosso, S.J., Grunzweig, J.M., Knapp, A.K., Mosier, A.R., Newton, P.C.D., Niklaus, P.A., Nippert, J.B., Nowak, R.S., Parton, W.J., Polley, H.W. and Shaw, M.R. 2004. Water relations in grassland and desert ecosystems exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2. Oecologia 140, 11-25.

Morgan, J.A., Milchunas, D.G., Lecain, D.R., West, M. and Mosier, A.R. 2007. Carbon dioxide enrichment alters plant community structure and accelerates shrub growth in the shortgrass steppe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, 14724-14729.

Morgan, M.G., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. 2008. Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making . US Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC.

Nevill, P., Bossinger, G. and Ades, P. 2009. Phylogeography of the world’s tallest angiosperm, Eucalyptus regnans: evidence for multiple isolated Quaternary refugia. Journal of Biogeography (in press).

Nicholls, N. 2004. The changing nature of Australian droughts. Climatic Change 63, 323-336.

Nicholls, N. and Collins, D. 2006. Observed climate changes in Australia over the past century. Energy & Environment 17, 1-12.

73

Nicholls, R.J., Wong, P.P., Burkett, V.R., Codignotto, J.O., Hay, J.E., McLean, R.F., Ragoonaden, S. and Woodroffe, C.D. 2007. Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 315-356.

North, A. 1991. Weeds on the Central Plateau: A survey of their distribution and association with recreational users . Tasmanian Parks Wildlife and Heritage.

Nothrop, L., Laut, P. and Yapp, G. 1988, A national assessment of land degradation, Department of Primary Industries and Energy, Canberra.

Orr J. C., Fabry V. J., Aumont O., Bopp L., Doney S. C., Feely R. A., Gnanadesikan A., Gruber N., Ishida A., Joss F., Key R. M., Lindsay K., Maier-Reimer E., Matear R., Monfray P., Mouchet A., Najjar R. G., Plattner G. K., Rodgers K. B., Sabine C. L., Sarmiento J. L., Schlitzer R., Slater R. D., Totterdell I. J., Weirig M. F., Yamanaka Y. and Yool A. 2005. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty first century and its impact on calcifying organisms . Nature 437, 681-686.

Parish, F., Sirin, A., Charman, D., Joosten, H., Minayeva, T., Silvius, M. and Stringer, L. 2008. Assessment on Peatlands, Biodiversity and Climate Change: Main Report . Global Environment Centre & Wetlands International, Kuala Lumpur / Wageningen.

Pauli H., Gottfried M. and Grabherr G. 2003. Effects of climate change on the alpine and nival vegetation of the Alps. Journal of Mountain Ecology 7, 9-13.

Pederson, G.T., Gray, S.T., Fagre, D.B. and Graumlich, L.J. 2006. Long-duration drought variability and impacts on ecosystem services: a case study from Glacier National Park, Montana. Earth Interactions 10, 1-28.

Peterson, G., Allen, C.R. and Holling, C.S. 1998. Ecological resilience, biodiversity and scale. Ecosystems 1, 6-18.

Pittock, B. Ed. 2003. Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts . Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra. 239 pp.

PMSEIC Independent Working Group. 2007. Climate Change in Australia: Regional Impacts and Adaptation – Managing the Risk for Australia, Report Prepared for the Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council, Canberra.

Poff, l.N, Brinson, M. N. and Day, J.W. 2002. Aquatic ecosystems and Global climate change - Potential Impacts on Inland Freshwater and Coastal Wetland Ecosystems in the United States . Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA. USA.

Poloczanska, E.S., Babcock, R.C., Butler, A., Hobday, A.J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kunz, T.J., Matear, R., Milton, D.A., Okey, T.A. and Richardson, A.J. 2007. Climate Change and Australian Marine Life. Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review. 45, 407-478.

Poloczanska, E.S., Hobday, A.J., and Richardson, A.J. (Eds.) 2009. Report card of marine Climate Change for Australia; detailed scientific assessment. NCCARF Publication 05/09, ISBN 978-1-921609-03-9.

Ponder, W. F., Chicott, S.J., Fulton, W., Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Richardson A.M.M. 1993. Streams and rivers. In: S.J. Smith and M.R. Banks (Eds). Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Values . Royal Society of Tasmania, Hobart. pp 114-122.

Poore, G.C.B. 2001. Biogeography and diversity of Australia’s marine biota. In: L.P.Zann and P. Kailola (Eds). The State of the Marine Environment Report for Australia Technical Annex: 1 . The Marine Environment . Department of the Environment, Sport and

74 References

Territories, Ocean Rescue 2000 Program, Townsville, Queensland, Australia: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. Pp. 75-84.

Pounds, J.A., Bustamante, M.R., Coloma L.A., Consuegra, J.A., Fogden M.P.L., Foster, P.N., La Marca, E., Masters K.L., Merino-Viteri, A., Puschendorf, R., Ron, S.R., Sanchez-Azofeifa, G.A., Still C.J. andYoung B.E. 2006. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature, 439, 161-167.

Prahalad V. 2009. Temporal changes in south east Tasmanian saltmarshes. Unpublished Master of Applied Science in Environmental Studies Thesis, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart.

Prober, S. M., Thiele, K. R. and Lunt, I.D. 2007. Fire frequency regulates tussock grass composition, structure and resilience in endangered temperate woodlands. Austral Ecology 32 (7), 808-824.

Prosser, I., Bunn, S., Mosisch, T., Ogden, R. and Karssies, L. 1999. The delivery of sediments and nutrients to streams. In: S. Lovett and P. Price (Eds). Riparian land management and technical guidelines . Volume One: Principles of sound management . Canberra, LWRRDC. 1, 181.

Rahel, F. J. and Olden, J. D. 2008. Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species. Conservation Biology 22 (3), 521-533.

Rathbone, D.A., McKinnon G.E., Potts B.M., Steane D.A. and Vaillancourt R.E. 2007. Microsatellite and cpDNA variation in island and mainland populations of a regionally rare eucalypt, Eucalyptus perriniana (Myrtaceae). Australian Journal of Botany 55, 513-520.

Raupach, M.R., Marland, P. Ciais, C. Le Quéré, J.G. Canadell, K.G. and Field, C.B. 2007. Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . 10289-10293.

Raupach, M.R., Briggs, P.R., Haverd, V., King, E.A., Paget, M. and Trudinger, C.M. 2008 Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Component: Final Report for Phase 3. http://www.csiro.au/awap/doc/AWAP3.FinalReport.20080601.V10.pdf

Reeve, I. 1992. Sustainable agriculture: problems, prospects and policies, In: G Lawrence, F Vanclay and B Furze (Eds). Agriculture, environment and society: contemporary issues for Australia Macmillan, pp. 208-223.

Resource Management and Conservation Division, 2007. King Island 2007 fires: Impact on natural values . Unpublished report to the Tasmanian Parks and Wildlife Service. Hobart, Biodiversity Conservation Branch, Department of Primary Industries and Water.

Resource Management and Conservation Division, 2008. Potential Impacts of Climate Change to Terrestrial and Marine Biodiversity and Natural Systems in Tasmania, Department of Primary Industries and Water. Hobart, Australia, 2008.

Resource Planning and Development Commission. 2003. State of the Environment Tasmania 2003, last modified 14th December 2006, http//www.rpdc.tas.gov.au/RPDCr, accessed 3rd March 2009.

Richley, L., Loughran, R.J., Elliott, G.L., and Saynor, M.J. 1997. A national reconnaissance survey of soil erosion in Tasmania. A report prepared for the Australian National Landcare Program. University of Newcastle, NSW).

Riebesell, U., Schulz, K. G., Bellerby, R. G. J., Botros, M., Fritsche.P., Meyerhöfer, M., Neill, C., Nondal, G., Oschlies. A., Wohlers, J. and Zöllner, E. 2007. Enhanced biological carbon consumption in a high CO2 ocean. Nature 450, 545-548.

75

Riebesell,1, U., Bellerby, R. G. J., Grossart, H.P. and Thingstad, F. 2008. Mesocosm CO2 perturbation studies: from organism to community level. Biogeosciences Discussions 5, 641–659.

Roberts, C. 2008. An endangered ecosystem? Are changing weather patterns a threat to marsupial lawns? School of Geography and Environmental Studies Conference Program. October 2008, Hobart, p. 16.

Robinson, R.A., Learmonth, J.A., Hutson, A.M., Macleod, C.D., Sparks, T.H., Leech, D.I., Pierce, G.J., Rehfisch, M.M. and Crick, H.Q.P. 2005. Climate change and migratory species. BTO Research Report, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), London, 414 pp.

Rose, K. 2008. Conference proceedings. Training Course in Exotic Animal Disease Preparedness. Australian Animal Health Laboratory, 5-7 May 2008.

Royal Society. 2005. Ocean Acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science Section, The Royal Society, London.

Samson, C.R. and Edgar, G.J. 2001. Use of sediment cores to document changes in coastal marine habitats since European settlement . Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering Conference, Environment Workshop Proceedings.

Scavia, D., Field, J.C., Boesch, D.F., Buddemeier, R., Cayan, D.R., Burkett, V., Fogarty, M., Harwell, M. and Co-authors. 2002. Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems. Estuaries, 25, 149-164.

Schroter, D. and the ATEAM Consortium. 2004, Global change vulnerability — assessing the European human–environment system, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Scott, J. K., Batchelor, K. L., Ota, N. and Yeoh, P.B. 2008. Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Sleeper and Alert Weeds: Final Report. CSIRO Entomology, Wembley WA, Australia.

Scott, J.J. and Kirkpatrick, J. B. 2008. Rabbits, landslips and vegetation change on the coastal slopes of subantarctic Macquarie Island, 1980-2007: implications for management. Polar Biology 31, 409-419.

Scott, J.J. and Bergstrom, D.M. 2006. Vegetation of Heard Island and the McDonald Islands. In: K Green, E. Woehler (Eds). Heard Island: Southern Ocean Sentinel, Surrey Beatty & Sons, Chipping Norton, NSW, 69-90.

Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. 2009. Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change . Montreal, Technical Series No. 41. 126 pp.

Sharples, C. 2003. A Review of Geoconservation Values of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area . Nature Conservation Report 03/06. DPIWE, Hobart.

Sharples, C. 2006. Indicative Mapping of Tasmanian Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Explanatory Report (Second Edition); Consultant Report to Department of Primary Industries & Water, Tasmania, 173 pp., plus accompanying electronic (GIS) maps.

Shaw, J.D., Hovenden, M.J. and Bergstrom, D.M. 2005. The impact of introduced ship rats (Rattus rattus) on seedling recruitment and distribution of a subantarctic megaherb (Pleurophyllum hookeri) . Austral Ecology, 30, 118-125.

76 References

Sherry, R.A., Zhou, X., Gu, S., Arnone, J.A., Schimel, D.S., Verburg, P.S., Wallace, L.L. and Luo, Y. 2007. Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America . 104, 198-202.

Sims, C.C. and Cotching, W.E. 2000. Erosion and water quality: Turbidity and sediment loads from selected catchments in north-west Tasmania. Natural Resource Management 3, 8-14.

Smithers, B.V., Peck, D.R., Krockenberger, A.K. and Congdon, B.C. 2003. Elevated sea-surface temperature, reduced provisioning and reproductive failure of wedge tailed shearwaters (Puffinus pacificus) in the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 54,: 973-977.

Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Alley, R.B., Bertsen, T., Bindoff, N.L., Chen, Z., Chidthaisong, A., Gregory, J.M., Hergerl, G.C., Heimann, M., Hewitson, B., Hoskins, B.J., Joos, F., Jouzel, J., Kattsov, V., Lohmann, U., Matsuno, T., Molina, M., Nicholls, N., Overpeck, J., Raga, G., Ramaswamy, V., Ren, J., Rusticucci, M., Somerville, R., Stocker, T.F., Whetton, P., Wood, R. A. and Wratt, D. 2007. Technical Summary. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis,

K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller (Eds). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. pp. 19-91.

Soil Science Society of America. 2009. Soil Quality Definition, https://www.soils.org/sssagloss/index.php

Sparrow, L.A., Cotching, W.E., Cooper, J. and Rowley, W. 1999. Attributes of Tasmanian Ferrosols under different agricultural management. Australian Journal of Soil Research 37, 603-622.

Spracklen, D., Yaron, G., Singh, T., Righelato, R. and Sweetman, T. 2008. The root of the matter. In: B. Caldecott. (Ed). Carbon sequestration in forests and peatlands . Policy Exchange.London UK,

Steane, D.A., Conod, N., Jones, R.C., Vaillancourt, R.E. and Potts, B.M. 2006. A comparative analysis of population structure of a forest tree, Eucalyptus globulus (Myrtaceae), using microsatellite markers and quantitative traits. Tree Genetics and Genomes 2, 30-38.

Steele, J., Kohout, M. and Newell, G. 2008. Climate change and potential distribution of weeds - Whither the weeds under climate change? Department of Primary Industries Biosciences Research Division. Frankston, Victoria, Australia.

Steffen, W. 2009. Climate Change 2009: Faster Change and More Serious Risks. Report to the Department of Climate Change. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra. 52 pp.

Steffen, W., Sanderson, A., Tyson, P., Jager, J., Matson, P., Moore III, B., Oldfield, F., Richardson, K., Schellnhuber, H.-J., Tuner II, B. L. and Wasson, R. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure . Springer-Verlag, Berlin. 336 pp.

Steffen, W. and Canadell, P. 2005. Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation and Climate Change Policy. 33 pp. Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of Environment and Heritage: Canberra.

Steffen, W., Burbidge, A.A., Hughes, L., Kitching, R., Lindenmayer, D., Musgrave, W., Stafford Smith, M. and Werner, P. 2009. Australia’s biodiversity and climate change: a strategic assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change. A report to the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council commissioned by the Commonwealth Department

77

of Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing, Canberra.

Tapper, N. and Hurry, L. 1993. Australia’s Weather Patterns . Dellasta Publishers. Melbourne, Australia.

Tasmanian Government. 2006. Draft Climate Change Strategy for Tasmania . Department of Primary Industries and Water, Tasmania.

Tasmanian Climate Change Office. 2008. The Tasmanian Framework for Action on Climate Change, Department of Premier and Cabinet. Hobart, Australia, July 2008.

Tasmanian Government and Australian Heritage Commission. 1981. Nomination of Western Tasmanian Wilderness National Parks by the Commonwealth of Australia for inclusion in the World Heritage List, Canberra.

Threatened Species Section. 2006. Giant Freshwater Lobster Astacopsis gouldi Recovery Plan 2006-2010 . Department of Primary Industries and Water, Hobart,

Threatened Species Section. 2006. Recovery Plan: Tasmanian Galaxiidae 2006-2010 . Department of Primary Industries and Water, Hobart,.

Trenberth, K.E., Jones, P.D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu,R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J.A.,

Rusticucci, M., Soden, B. and Zhai, P. 2007. Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2008. Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species and Implications for Management and Research . National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC.

van de Geer, G. 1981. Late Quaternary marine and freshwater swamp deposits of northwestern Tasmania. Unpubl. PhD. Thesis, Geog. Dept., University of Tasmania.

Viney, N.R., Post, D.A., Yang, A., Willis, M., Robinson, K.A., Bennett, J.C., Ling, F.L.N. and Marvanek, S. 2009. Rainfall-runoff modelling for Tasmania. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.

Walker, B.H., Salt, D. and Reid, W.V. 2006. Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and

People in a Changing World. Island Press, Washington DC. 192 pp.

Walsh, K.J.E., Nguyen, K.C., and Mcgregor, J.L. 2004. Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia. Climate Dynamics 22, 47-56.

Walther, G., Beibner, S. and Burga, C.A. 2005. Trends in the upward shift of alpine plants. Journal of Vegetation Science 16, 541-548.

Walton, W.C., MacKinnon, C., Rodriguez, L.F., Proctor, C. and Ruiz, G.M. 2002. Effect of an invasive crab upon a marine fishery: green crab, Carcinus maenas, predation upon a venerid clam, Katelysia scalarina, in Tasmania (Australia). Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 272(2), 171-189.

Whinam, J. and Hope, G.S. 2005. The Peatlands of the Australasian Region. In: Steiner, G.M. (Ed). Mires . From Siberia to Tierra del Fuego. Stapfia 85, 397-433.

Whinam, J., Barmuta, L.A. and Chilcott, N. 2001a. Floristic description and environmental relationships of Tasmanian Sphagnum communities and their conservation management. Australian Journal of Botany 49 (6), 673-685.

78 References

Whinam, J., Chilcott, N. and Rudman, T. 2001b. Impacts of dieback at Pine Lake, Tasmania. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 135, 41-49.

Whinam, J., Eberhard, S., Kirkpatrick, J. and Moscal, A. 1989. Ecology and Conservation of Tasmanian Sphagnum Peatlands . Tasmanian Conservation Trust Inc., Hobart, Australia.

Whinam, J., Hope, G.S., Clarkson, B.R., Buxton, R., Alspatch, P.A. and Adam, P. 2003. Sphagnum in peatlands of Australasia: The resource, its utilisation and management. Wetlands Ecology and Management 11, 37-49.

Whitehead, J. 2009. Derwent Estuary Climate Change Issues: Regional actions, research and possible impacts . Derwent Estuary Program, Hobart.

Williams, M., Dunkerley, D., de Dekker, D., Kershaw, P. and Chappell, J. 2004. Quaternary Environments (2nd ed.). Arnold, London.

Williams, A.L., Wills, K.E., Janes, J.K., Vander Schoor, J.K., Newton, P.C.D. and Hovenden, M.J. 2007. Warming and free-air CO2 enrichment alter demographics in four co-occurring grassland species, New Phytologist, 176, 365-374.

Williams, K.J. and Potts, B.M. 1996. The natural distribution of Eucalyptus species in Tasmania.

In: H. Elliott, J. Jarman, M.J. Brown, and D. Hinley (Eds). Tasforests 8, 39-165.

Williams R.J., Bradstock, R.A., Cary, G.J., Enright, N.J., Gill, A.M., Liedloff, A., Lucas, C., Whelan, R.J., Andersen, A.N., Bowman, D.M.J.S., Clarke, P.J., Cook, G.D., Hennessy, K. and York, A. (2009). The Impact of Climate Change on Fire Regimes and Biodiversity in Australia – a Preliminary Assessment . Report to Department of Climate Change and Department of Environment Water Heritage and the Arts. Canberra.

World Bank. 2009. Convenient Solutions to an Inconvenient Truth: Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change . Environment Department, The World Bank. Washington, DC. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ENVIRONMENT/Resources/ESW_EcosystemBasedApp.pdf

WWF. 2008. Australian Species and Climate Change. World Wide Fund for Nature Australia. Sydney. 28 pp.

Xie, Z.B., Zhu, J.G., Liu, G., Cadisch, G., Haegawa, T., Chen, C.M., Sun, H.F., Tang, H.Y. and Zeng, Q. 2007. Soil organic carbon stocks in China and changes from 1980s to 2000s. Global Change Biology 13, 1989-2007.

Yang, Y., Fang, J., Tang, Y., Ji, C., Zheng, C., He, J. and Zhu, B. 2008. Storage, patterns and controls

of soil organic carbon in the Tibetan grasslands. Global Change Biology 14, 1592-1599.

Yuan, Z.Q., Rudman, T. and Mohammed, C. 2000. Pseudophacidium diselmae sp. nov. Isolated from stem cankers on Diselma archeri in Tasmania, Australia. Australasian Plant Pathology 29, 215-221.

Zavaleta, E.S. and Royval, J.L. 2001. Climate Change and the Susceptibility of U.S. Ecosystems to Biological Invasions: Two Cases of Expected Range Expansion. In: S.H. Schneider and T.L. Root (Eds). Wildlife Responses to Climate Change: North American Case Studies . Published by Island Press, Washington, DC.

Zeebe, R.E., Zachos, J.C., Caldeira, K. and Tyrrell, T. 2008. Carbon emissions and acidification. Science 321 (5885), 51-52.

Ziegeler, D. 1990. A survey of weed infestation within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area and peripheral areas. Department of Parks, Wildlife and Heritage, Tasmania.

Ziska, L. H. and Goins, E. W. 2006. Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Weed Populations in Glyphosate Treated Soybean. Crop Science 46, 1354-1359.

79

80 Notes

Notes

Resource Management and ConservationDepartment of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and EnvironmentGPO Box 44HobartTasmania 7001

BL10

419

vulnerability of tasmania’s natural environment · wilderness and unique natural heritage. the...

Documents