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The aim of the presentation is to discuss the vulnerability of urban

communities to climate change risks in Greater Manchester.

Dr Aleksandra Kazmierczak is a Research Associate at the University of

Manchester in the theme of Cities and Climate Change. Her particular

research interests are vulnerability of urban communities to climate change

and the role of urban greening as an adaptation response to the changing

climate.

This presentation presents findings of the research project ‘EcoCities: The

Bruntwood Initiative for Sustainable Cities’, which is a collaborative research

programme between the University of Manchester and property development

company Bruntwood.

The main aim of the project was to investigate the climate risks and the

vulnerability of different aspects of the urban environment Greater Manchester

(e.g. communities, buildings, infrastructure) to these risks, and to propose

appropriate adaptation responses (e.g. changes in urban form, institutional and

community actions).

The findings of the research project and other relevant information are

summarised on www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk.

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This presentation focuses on one aspect of the EcoCities research: the

vulnerability of communities to climate change impacts. It will explore the

climate-related risks and discuss the reasons why some people and

communities are more vulnerable than others. Then it will present the spatial

distribution of the vulnerable communities in Greater Manchester and the

associations between the level of vulnerability and the occurrence of climate

impacts. This will be illustrated by case studies at the district and

neighbourhood level. The presentation will also present some adaptation

responses that could be explored in order to minimise the climate risks to

vulnerable communities.

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One of the climate change risks that is likely to increase in the future is surface

water flooding, which is predominantly caused by short duration intense

rainfall, occurring locally. Such floods are difficult to forecast, warn against and

prepare for. The rainwater cannot infiltrate into the ground due to high

proportion of sealed surfaces (e.g. tarmac) and the urban drainage systems

often cannot cope with the amount of rainwater entering them.

The analysis of past extreme weather events through the Local Climate

Impacts Profile (LCLIP) exercise suggests that surface water flooding in

Greater Manchester may be becoming more frequent. This may be related to

the increasing proportion of sealed surfaces associated with urban

development, as well as the changes in weather patterns.

The future climate projections for Greater Manchester suggest that the rainfall

will be more concentrated: the wettest days will become even wetter. For the

large part of Greater Manchester, it is unlikely that by the 2050s (under the

high emissions scenario) the increase in rainfall on the wettest day will be

smaller than +1.4% and greater than +31%.

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Around 14% of the Greater Manchester area is susceptible to shallow surface

water flooding (up to 10 centimetres) and only around 2% of the area are at

risk of flooding up to 1 metre in depth.

The images show the proportion of Lower Super Output Areas (or LSOAs -

territorial units used in census; there are 1646 LSOAs in Greater Manchester)

at the risk of flooding. The risk of flooding is widespread: only five of 1646

LSOAs are not affected by surface water flooding. Shallow flooding is mainly

present in the south of the conurbation; deeper flooding may affect areas in

the north.

Another climate change risk is the rising temperatures in the summer.

Currently, the maximum temperature of the warmest day in summer in Greater

Manchester is 26°C. The climate change projections for Greater Manchester

suggest that by the 2050s, under the high emissions scenario, the warmest

day is unlikely to be less than 1.5°C hotter and unlikely to be more than 6°C

hotter than in the baseline scenario.

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The temperatures in cities are additionally raised by the Urban Heat Island

Effect, whereby densely built-up areas in urban centres absorb and re-radiate

more heat than areas with more vegetation.

The image presents the extent and intensity of Urban Heat Island in Greater

Manchester, shown as the deviation of surface temperatures from the average

surface temperature in Greater Manchester, and modelled for different types of

land use. The surface temperatures in the city centre can be over 2°C higher

than the average, and up to 5°C higher than in the suburbs.

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The number of heatwave events per year is likely to increase under the

changing climate. A heatwave, as defined by the UK Met Office, occurs when a

maximum temperature exceeds 30°C for two days and a minimum

temperature exceedis 15°C on the intervening night.

Climate projections for central Manchester indicate that under the high

emissions scenario for the 2050s (highlighted in yellow), there can be up to 9

heatwave events a year.

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Exposure to extreme and prolonged heat has negative impact on human health. It may cause heat cramps and heat exhaustion. Dehydration, hyperthermia and heat stroke are the most common causes of death during heat waves, followed by genital-urinary and respiratory illnesses. In Europe, the heatwave of 2003 resulted in over 80,000 additional deaths across sixteen countries. This is because in temperate regions, severe but very hot episodes during periods of generally milder weather conditions cause an increase in weather-related mortality more significant than in regions that are permanently hot.

The impacts of flooding on people include drowning and physical injuries, as well as stress and psychological trauma associated with loss of belongings, damage to property, and the necessity to move out. A loss of electricity may also impact water pumps and lead to problems with obtaining drinking water. This, combined with poor drainage, may result in diseases from the contact with water contaminated by sewage, such as diarrhoea. People living in properties that have been affected by flooding suffer from worse health and higher mortality rates.

High temperatures are associated with lower productivity and flooding can cause travel difficulties. This means that climate impacts affect not only individuals, but also entire communities and cities.

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Some people are more vulnerable to climate and weather impacts, i.e. they

are more susceptible to harm than others, due to their different capacities to

deal with hazards. Vulnerability of people to flooding is influenced by the

following four types of issues:

- Access to information: for example, the awareness of living in a flood risk

area, on knowing what to do in the event of flooding or heatwave. Access to

information can by limited for those without strong social networks, people

unfamiliar with their neighbourhood and those unable to understand the

information provided.

- Ability to prepare: for example, the ability to invest in flood insurance,

property-level flood protection measures, or electric fans and air conditioning

for heatwaves; also the physical ability to secure belongings from flooding.

- Ability to respond: knowing what to do and being able to act or receive help in

the event of heatwaves or flooding.

- Ability to recover. Some people may find it difficult to find the resources,

energy and mental strength to start again after flooding.

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The ability of people to prepare for, respond to and recover after flooding is

affected by a number of factors:

-Age: The elderly were the main victims of the 2003 heatwave. Children and

the elderly are more susceptible to health-related impacts of floods and suffer

considerable psychological trauma following flood events.

- Health: Poor health makes it more difficult to prepare for flooding and those

in poor health are more affected by heat stress. Pre-existing health problems

affect the ability of people to recover after flooding.

- Material situation: Limited income reduces the ability to invest in flood

protection measures, flood insurance or cooling systems.

- Living arrangements: Those in rented accommodation are often in the area

temporarily and may not be familiar with the local flood issues; tenants are

often unable to install adaptation measures in their accommodation. Those

living on their own can be isolated from information and help, and overcrowded

households may be more difficult to evacuate.

- Family issues: Households with dependant children may be hindered in their

preparations for the flooding by child care. Single parents may find it more

difficult to recover after flooding.

- Communication difficulaties: Those not speaking English may not

understand the information about flooding and heatwaves and the advice what

to do. Some cultural barriers to preparation to flooding, responding to heat

waves by adjusting dress and life style, or accepting help from others may

occur.

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The indicators of vulnerability corresponding with the factors listed on the

previous slide were statistically analysed at the level of Lower Super Output

Area in Greater Manchester. This helped to identify four underlying aspects of

vulnerability: Poverty and poor health, diverse communities, families with

children and the elderly. These aspects emphasise the predominant reason for

vulnerability; however, it may be accompanied by other aspects (for example,

the areas with high proportion of the elderly may also be characterised by a

high proportion of people in poor health).

On the maps, the darkest areas represent the highest vulnerability. The spatial

distribution of the different aspects of vulnerability in Greater Manchester can

be summarised as follows:

1. Areas characterised by poverty and poor health in general concentrate

around town centres, but there are also pockets of deprivation and poor

health in more suburban areas.

2. The LSOAs with high diversity of communities are even more visibly

associated with the urban centres across Greater Manchester.

3. Areas characterised by high proportion of children in the population are

more prevalent in suburban and peripheral parts of the conurbation.

4. The LSOAs with high proportion of elderly people are scattered

throughout the suburban areas of Greater Manchester.

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By overlaying the maps of vulnerability and surface water flooding it was

possible to investigate the associations between the spatial distribution of

vulnerable communities and flooding. There are no clear associations between

the level of vulnerability and the proportion of LSOA at the risk of surface water

flooding. For example, the more diverse and poorer communities tend to be

slightly more exposed to shallow flooding, but less affected deep surface water

flooding.

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Overlaying the spatial information on the vulnerability of communities and

flooding allows to identify the priority areas, where actions can be tailored to

the predominant reasons for vulnerability.

These maps show the distribution of areas at risk of shallow surface water

flooding (the blue circles represents the % of LSOA area that is susceptible to

this type of flooding) and river flooding (hatched areas) combined with the

vulnerability of communities (the background colour) in Salford. The areas

where the high vulnerability is combined with the widespread flooding should

be prioritised.

The poorer and more diverse communities tend to live in more urbanised

locations, thus are more exposed to high temperatures due to the Urban Heat

Island (UHI) effect. The graphs show that areas where the surface

temperatures are higher than the average for Greater Manchester are also

characterised by the higher vulnerability of communities due to poverty and

poor health and the diversity of communities. In particular the association

between the diversity of communities and location within the UHI is clearly

visible (the right graph).

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In Greater Manchester the communities vulnerable due to high poverty and

poor health and high ethnic and cultural diversity coincide spatially with areas

at risk of surface water flooding and higher temperatures. This calls for

adaptation measures that would limit the current weather impacts and the

future climate change risks to these communities.

The following aspects of adaptation can be considered:

-Appropriate provision of emergency services, which provide assistance during

extreme weather events;

-Community actions targeting the underlying reasons for vulnerability, such as

poverty, and improving the access to information, and the ability to prepare,

respond and recover;

-Changes in land cover, in particular in relation to urban greening, as

vegetation reduces the temperatures and helps to absorb the excess

rainwater. Also introducing surfaces reflecting heat and permeable to water

can be considered;

- Housing improvements: introduction of flood resilience measures and anti-

overheating measures.

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The more vulnerable areas in Greater Manchester are within shorter distances

from GP surgeries than the less vulnerable communities. They are also better

served by fire service and police. This means that a swift emergency services’

response in the event of flooding or heat wave is likely in these areas.

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The community actions that help to adapt to the changing climate may include

the following:

- Targeting the underlying causes of vulnerability, such as poverty, poor health

or social isolation.

- Improving the access to information for the ethnic minority groups and other

vulnerable communities. The information about the climate change risks,

recommended actions and sources of support should be presented in a

appropriate format and language.

- Supporting the networks of volunteers, who can help people to prepare for,

respond to, and recover after extreme weather events. This can include help

for the elderly (e.g. during heatwaves) or taking care of the children whilst the

parents are preparing their home for flooding.

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Green spaces help to reduce the risk of surface water flooding by absorbing

rainwater and they cool the urban environment by shading and lower

absorption and re-emission of heat than the built-up areas.

The graphs show that the poorer and more diverse communities tend to live in

areas with lower proportion of green space than wealthier and more

homogenous communities. One type of action that could be encouraged in

these areas is gardening, with an emphasis on removing the paving from front

gardens. Tree planting is valuable for shading, especially in private gardens

and on streets to the south-west of houses.

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Property level flood protection measures (flood gates, valves on sewage pipes,

raised appliances and electricity sockets) can be used in areas frequently

affected by flooding. However, they are mainly appropriate for semi- and

detached housing. The poorer and more diverse communities tend to live in

terraced housing; here street-level solutions are more appropriate, as the

water could seep from one house to another, meaning that even those

protected from flooding could be damaged. Sustainable urban drainage

systems – vegetated swales or green alleyways could be more suitable in

areas of terraced housing.

Anti-overheating measures include housing insulation (which also helps to

reduce the energy use) and shading for windows and walls to avoid heat

absorption. Using light colours on roofs and walls also reduces heat gains.

The high proportion of poor-quality housing in areas inhabited by poor and

diverse communities means that the anti-flood and anti-overheating measures

could be introduced during the general improvement works.

The areas located within the urban heat island tend to have higher proportion

of private-rented and social-rented housing. This means that working with

landlords is essential in order to introduce the anti-overheating measures.

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The diversity of communities in urban areas, combined with the variety of

housing, tenure and varying provision of green space creates a complex

picture. Successful adaptation takes this context in consideration.

This image shows a part of Manchester (Whalley Range / Moss Side), 1.4 x

1.4 km in size, inhabited by communities highly vulnerable due to high diversity

of communities, poverty and also high proportion of children and the elderly in

the population. The background colour indicates the proportion of building

walls facing south east, south or south west (they are prone to overheating).

This is combined with different types of housing present, and varying presence

of trees for shading.

The suite of adaptation measures targeted at reducing the risk of overheating

in this area will be different almost in every 200m x 200m square.

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Sources of information:

Responding to heat and social vulnerability:

http://www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk/documents/heat-and-social-vulnerability-

greater-manchester-risk-response-case-study

Surface water flooding risk to urban communities: Analysis of vulnerability,

hazard and exposure:

http://www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk/documents/surface-water-flooding-risk-

urban-communities-analysis-vulnerability-hazard-and-exposure%E2%80%99

Greater Manchester Local Climate Impacts Profile:

http://www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk/documents/greater-manchester-local-

climate-impacts-profile-gmlcip-and-assessing-manchester-city

Recent changes and trends in Greater Manchester’s climate:

http://www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk/documents/recent-changes-and-trends-

greater-manchester%E2%80%99s-climate

Climate change projections for Greater Manchester:

http://www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk/documents/climate-change-projections-

greater-manchester-version-2