vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation vulnerability assessment, climate...
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Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Sonja Vidič
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of CroatiaOverall responsibility for V&A in National Communication
Sonja Vidič
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of CroatiaOverall responsibility for V&A in National Communication
ForWorkshop on the preparation of the fourth national communication
from annex I parties, Dublin, 30 September – 1. October, 2004
ForWorkshop on the preparation of the fourth national communication
from annex I parties, Dublin, 30 September – 1. October, 2004
Adaptation in UNFCCC, KyotoAdaptation in UNFCCC, Kyoto
UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food production and economic development to adapt
UNFCCC, Art. 4.1 …facilitate adequate adaptation… …co-operate in preparing for adaptation...
UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8 …assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation...
Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate adequate adaptation...
UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food production and economic development to adapt
UNFCCC, Art. 4.1 …facilitate adequate adaptation… …co-operate in preparing for adaptation...
UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8 …assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation...
Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate adequate adaptation...
Adaptation to Climate ChangeAdaptation to Climate Change
Adjustments in ecological, social or economicsystems in response to actual or expectedclimate change stimuli, their effects or impacts
Adjustments in ecological, social or economicsystems in response to actual or expectedclimate change stimuli, their effects or impacts
• to reduce vulnerability• to moderate damages• to realize opportunities
• to reduce vulnerability• to moderate damages• to realize opportunities
By climate change we understand climate, climate variability and induced climate change(natural and anthropogenic).
By climate change we understand climate, climate variability and induced climate change(natural and anthropogenic).
Vulnerability to Climate Change
depends upon
Vulnerability to Climate Change
depends upon
• Exposure to Climate Change Risks and
• Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks
• Exposure to Climate Change Risks and
• Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATIONTO CLIMATE CHANGE
for NCRCroatian Case
22 scientists and expertsworking in 8 teams,
coming from 10 Institutions
Sectors considered:
ClimateWater resourcesAgricultureForestryBiodiversity and
terrestrial ecosystemsCoastal areasMarine ecosystems
and fishery Health
Past and present climate
Future climate
Structure of research in V&A of the FNCCC
CLIMATE CHANGEincl. Variability
CLIMATE CHANGEincl. Variability
Human Interference
Human Interference
Initial ImpactsEffects
Initial ImpactsEffects
ExpectedAdaptations
ExpectedAdaptations
Residual orNet ImpactsResidual orNet Impacts
VU
LN
ER
AB
ILIT
IES
VU
LN
ER
AB
ILIT
IES
IMP
AC
TS
IMP
AC
TS
PolicyResponses
PolicyResponses
dangerous? vulnerable?dangerous? vulnerable?
MITIGATIONof Climate Changevia GHG sources
and sinks
MITIGATIONof Climate Changevia GHG sources
and sinks
PlannedADAPTATION
to theImpacts and
Vulnerabilities
PlannedADAPTATION
to theImpacts and
Vulnerabilities
Synthesis: Main Assumptions and FindingsSynthesis: Main Assumptions and Findings
1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impactsHow ? Examples from present
2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs
How ? Examples from present3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes
Show, connect different sectors 4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits
How ? Examples from present5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes
Examples from present
1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impactsHow ? Examples from present
2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs
How ? Examples from present3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes
Show, connect different sectors 4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits
How ? Examples from present5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes
Examples from present
6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries and socio-economic groups
Present knowledge should be used to stress importantnational circumstances
7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks
Explain, give examples from present knowledge8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable
International co-operation !9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient
6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries and socio-economic groups
Present knowledge should be used to stress importantnational circumstances
7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks
Explain, give examples from present knowledge8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable
International co-operation !9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient
Main Assumptions and FindingsMain Assumptions and Findings
The way forwardThe way forward
Continue to improve/exchange methods and tools
Closer co-operation among parties and more directexchange of experiences, framework that will support it
More integrated approach:More information for the assessment should come from knowledge and data about present climate/adverse climate events and related socio-economic consequences
Continue to improve/exchange methods and tools
Closer co-operation among parties and more directexchange of experiences, framework that will support it
More integrated approach:More information for the assessment should come from knowledge and data about present climate/adverse climate events and related socio-economic consequences
The way forwardThe way forward
up to nowup to now
Climate change
Climate scenarios
Downscaling, other methods
Assessment of impactsand vulnerability (different methods)
Adaptation Capacity
Adaptation measures
to be integrated over oll sectors
Climate change
Climate scenarios
Downscaling, other methods
Assessment of impactsand vulnerability (different methods)
Adaptation Capacity
Adaptation measures
to be integrated over oll sectors
The way forwardThe way forward
Present data on climate and climate variability
Assess impacts, vulnerability, adaptive capacity over all sectors, each sector
should evaluate the the consequences of the same eventintegration !!
Investigate adaptation measures taken(social, economical, institutional)
Put the whole exercise in the contecst of future climate scenarios
discuss probabilities for non-linear events
conclusions about best mitigation options
Present data on climate and climate variability
Assess impacts, vulnerability, adaptive capacity over all sectors, each sector
should evaluate the the consequences of the same eventintegration !!
Investigate adaptation measures taken(social, economical, institutional)
Put the whole exercise in the contecst of future climate scenarios
discuss probabilities for non-linear events
conclusions about best mitigation options