vulnerability assessment and adaptation policies for c c impacts on the nile delta coastal zones by...
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![Page 1: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C Impacts on the Nile Delta Coastal Zones By Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy Director of](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042822/56649e2b5503460f94b19b80/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C
Impacts on theNile Delta Coastal Zones
By
Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy
Director of Coastal Research Institute (CoRI)
National Water Research Center (NWRC)
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Global Perspective
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Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice and ice sheets
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Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year
0.8 mm/year
2.0 mm/year
Global Mean Sea Level from Tidal Gauge observations around the world
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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200
6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200
0
Period Rate
Years /decade
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Contribution to Sea Level by Thermal Expansion
Rate = 0.4 mm/year (1955-2004)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
MS
L (
mm
)
Year
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Contribution to Sea Level by Mountain Glaciers
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
MS
L (
mm
)
Year
1961-2003: 0.5 mm/year
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
MS
L (
mm
)
Year
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Sea Level Budget (IPCC-2007, mm/year)
Thermal Expansion
Mountain Glaciers
Greenland Ice Melt
Antarctic Ice Melt
Land Water Storage
Total of Observed Contributions
+
+
+
=
Observed Sea Level Change
1.6 ± 0.5
0.8 ± 0.2
0.2 ± 0.1
0.2 ± 0.3
?
2.8 ± 0.7
1993-2003 1961-2003
0.4 ± 0.1
0.5 ± 0.2
0.1 ± 0.1
0.1 ± 0.4
?
1.1 ± 0.5
3.1 ± 0.7 1.8 ± 0.5
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1. According to observations and measurements, average global increase in sea level is 1-2 mm/year.
2. Mean Sea Level is projected to rise by 0.18 m to 0.59 m by 2100, But with Significant Regional Variations, IPCC 2007)
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((Chappell & Shackleton, 1986Chappell & Shackleton, 1986))
Global sea-level change over the past 160,000 yearsGlobal sea-level change over the past 160,000 years
• Sea level highly variable due to natural processesSea level highly variable due to natural processes• Sea level -120 m lower and +4-6 m higher than presentSea level -120 m lower and +4-6 m higher than present
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Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century according to
special report on emission reduction scenarios (SRES)
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Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007
ScenarioTemperature Change (Relative to 1980-1999
°C)
Sea Level Rise (m)(Relative to 1980-1999)
CaseBest EstimateModel-based range excluding future rapid
dynamical exchange in the ice flow
Constant year 2000
concentrations
0.6Not available
B1 ScenarioA1T ScenarioB2 Scenario
A1B ScenarioA2 Scenario
A1F1 Scenario
1.82.42.42.83.44.0
0.18-0.380.20-0.450.20-0.430.21-0.480.23-0.510.26-0.59
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Scenarios by Projected SLR for the Nile Delta.
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Global Models
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Attributed trends depend on observations not model simulated trends
Original model trend
Observations
Time
Tem
pera
ture
+ internal variability
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Attributed trends depend on observations not model simulated trends
Original model trend
Observations
Scaling
Lower
Upper
Attributed trend
Time
Tem
pera
ture
+ internal variability
+ uncertainty estimate
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Rain Gauge Network 1950-2000
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CoRI Activities
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Impact of climate changes on coastal zones was investigated by MWRI, Coastal Research Institute )CoRI( and Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands )1989-1992(
The study at that time has estimated the sea level rise impact on all the entire coastal zones of Egypt )3500 km( in terms of quality and quantity.
The study focused on the Nile Delta coast as it has been considered the most vulnerable area in the coastal zones of Egypt
The study estimated the impacts of sea level rise if water has raisin by 1m, 2m, and 3m as shown in the figure.
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Egyptian Coastline15 Coastal Segments for Vulnerability Assessment Study
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Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels
1m zone
2m zone
3m zone
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Areas of Ecological interest in the Red Sea area
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Vulnerability Analysis
Physical Mechanisms Shoreline erosion/accretion Flood frequency Directly exposed hydraulic structures : e.g. ports, commercial
facilities, fish farms Salinity intrusion
Major Impact and possible losses Water level, waves characteristics, sediment flow, salinity levels Ecological sustainability Socio-economic responses, recreational capacity, tourism Agricultural activities and drainage conditions Fresh groundwater availability
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Conclusion & Recommendations (1992)
ConclusionsIf no response strategies are planned, major adverse impacts and serious
losses are expected in terms of: Deficiency in infrastructure functionality Community displacement Ecological deterioration Penetration of salt wedge Deficiency in drainage capacity
Recommendations A comprehensive national response strategyCoordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain ecosystemPreparation of integrated coastal zone management schemeRegular monitoring of vulnerable regionsFurther studies & follow up of technological developments
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Vulnerable areas defined by CoRI and Delft in 1992.
Vulnerable areas defined by IPCC in 2007
Results by CoRI & Delft )1992( and IPCC )2006( are comparable
Because both studies ignored the morphological features of the
coastal zone of the Nile Delta as )coastal sand dunes and ridges( .
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2
3
4
5
Abu Qir Research Station Zone
Rosetta Field Station ZoneBurullus Field Station Zone
Ras El Bar Research Station Zone
0 10 20 30 km
1
1 Institute Administration Building2 Abu Qir Research Station3 Rosetta Field Station4 Burullus Field Station5 Ras El Bar Research Station
Hydrografic and Land Profiles (Since )1971Tide Gauge Stations 19(Years Separated)Wave and Current Gauge Stations (S4DW 13)(Years Separated)Longshore Current (Litteral current )Measurement Stations (Since 1982)
Weather Station (Since 2000Separted)
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION
NATIONAL WATER RESEARCH CENTER
COASTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTEGIS and Remote Sensing Unit
Shoreline Evolution at Rosetta Promontory
Shoreline 1900
Shoreline 1964
Shoreline 1971
Shoreline 1988
Shoreline 1990
Shoreline 1991
Shoreline 1996
Shoreline 2000
1900
1964
1971
1988
1990
1991
19962000
0 400 800 1000 m
(1900 to 2000)
Shoreline 1900
Shoreline 1964
Shoreline 1971
Shoreline 1988
Shoreline 1990
Shoreline 1991
Shoreline 1996
Shoreline Evolution at Burullus lake outlet
1810
2000
19351947
19641988
1909
0 400 800 1000 m
(1810 to 2000)Shoreline Evolution at Damietta
Shoreline 1911
Shoreline 1935
Shoreline 1955
Shoreline 1983
Shoreline 1991
Shoreline 1995
Shoreline 2000
Shoreline 18951935
19111895
1955
19831991
1995
2000
0 400 800 1000 m
Promontory (1895 to 2000)Shoreline Evolution East of Damietta Nile
Branch (From 1965 to 2000)
Shoreline 1982Shoreline 1992Shoreline 1990Shoreline 1991Shoreline 1992Shoreline 2000
Shoreline 1965
1982
1965
1992
19901992
20001991
0 200 400 m
Shoreline Evolution at Baltim Sea Resort(1955 to 1990)
200 400 600 800 m0
1990
1955
1988
Light House
Grand Hotel
Shoreline 1955
Shoreline 1988
Shoreline 1990
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1898
:190
9
1909
:192
2
1922
:194
2
1942
:195
5
1955
:197
1
1971
:198
1
1981
:198
3
1983
:198
7
1987
:198
8
1988
:199
0
1990
:199
1
1991
:199
4
1994
:199
6
West of Rosetta Mouth
East of Rosetta Mouth
Time Period (Year)
Shor
elin
e Re
treat
(met
er/Y
ear)
Shoreline Retreat Rate East and West Rosetta Mouth During The Past Century
Water Quality Sampling Stations (Since 1998 Separated)
WBP
5.8
AM
P 15.0
GSP
1. 0
RGP
0.0
GPP
5.0
المحطات الحقلية واألنشطة البحثية المختلفة لمعهد بحوث الشواطئ
Sediment Sampling Stations (Since )1971
Current beyond breaker zone Measurement Stations 25(Years Separated)
MWRI (Coastal Research Institute) increased its activities to define precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological
features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges)
About 200 hydrographic beach profiles along the Nile Delta
coast
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Mediterranean Sea
BURULLUS
IdkuLagoon
NILE DELTA
Manzala Lagoon
Gamasa
ROSETTAPROMONTORY
DAMIETTAPROMONTORY
Port Said
Su
ez C
anal
Baltim
Burullus Lagoon
Abu QuirBay
20km0
30o 00' 30o 30' 31o 00' 31o 30' 32o 00' 32o 30'
31o 0
0'31
o 30'
32o 0
0'
Beach and backshore
DesertCoastal Dunes
Old Dunes Cultivated Land
Northern Coast Ridge
توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل
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Accretion and Erosion Patterns, Nile Delta Coasts
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Population of Damietta and Port Said
19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996
199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
19981997
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Year
PopulationDamietta
Port Said
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City
Population (Thousands)Increase of Population
(Thousands) %of Increase
2006200720082006/20072007/20082006/20072007/2008
Alexandria412441654238417311.7
Damietta10971112113715251.42.2
Port Said5715765885120.92
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Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast.
(CoRI-2007(, First Scenario
Station
Average Annual ASLT )Cm(
Sea Level Rise )Cm(
2025
Sea Level Rise )Cm(
2050
Sea Level Rise )Cm(
2075
Sea Level Rise )Cm(
2100
Alex.0.164.08.012.016.0
Al-Burullus0.235.7511.516.2523.0
Port Said0.5313.2526.539.7553.0
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Two Modules have been developed and in each module three scenarios were established
•The first scenario was established by assuming that the same rate of temperature change )0.6 ºC over the last century( will occur till 2100.
•The second scenario was established by temperature projection till 2100. Temperature change is assumed to be 1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.
•The third scenario was established by temperature projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.
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Mediterranean Hydrological Factors
Area = 2.5 million km2
Max Depth = 4400 m
Ave Depth = 1500 m
Water Vol. = 3.7 million km3
Water body comprises 3 layers with different temperature and salinity profiles
• Surface layer )75-300 m depth(
• Intermediate layer )300-600 m depth(
• Lower layer )more than 600 m depth(
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Mediterranean Annual Water Balance
Evaporation 4144 km3
Income
rainfall 1000 km3
River flow 230 km3
Black Sea flow 152 km3
Total Inflow 1382 km3
Deficit 2762 km3
This deficit is compensated by 40,000 m3/s from Atlantic Ocean through Gabal Tarek straight in an anti-clockwise flow as water level in eastern side of the sea is 80 cm lower than that in the ocean due to increased evaporation rates difference.
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Preliminary Results
Module )1(
Business as usual
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Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100,
(CoRI 2007) 20502025
2075 2100
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Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta areaAccording to CoRI measurements till 2100
(Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)
Year2025205020752100
Total Area Affected
(km2)633.8691.8748.4832.7
Total % of the Nile
Delta Area2.532.573.03.33
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Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase in Air Temperature (B1 Scenario(
Year2025205020752100
Temperature (ºC)0.9 1.31.81.8
ASLR at Alexandria7.0 cm16.0 cm 27 cm28 cm
ASLR at Al-Burullus8.75 cm19.5 cm32.25 cm35.0 cm
ASLR at Port Said18.12 cm39.5 cm64.3 cm72.5 cm
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Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario
20502025
2075 2100
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Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area According to B1 scenario till 2100
(Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)
Year2025205020752100
Total Area Affected (km2)
657.77521021.91058.8
Total % of the Nile Delta Area
2.633.04.14.23
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Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase in Air Temperature (A1F1 Scenario(
Year
2025 205020752100
Temperature (ºC)
1.22.23.24.0
ASLR at Alexandria
13.0 )cm(34.0 )cm(55.0 )cm(72.0 )cm(
ASLR at Al-Burullus
14.75 )cm(37.5 )cm(60.30 )cm(79.0 )cm(
ASLR at Port Said
27.9 )cm(68.8 )cm(109.6 )cm(144.0 )cm(
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Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario
2025 2050
2075 2100
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Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario)
(With Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)
Year2025205020752100
Total Area Affected (km2)
701766.523482938
Total % of the Nile Delta Area
2.83.19.411.75
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Final Results
Module )2(
Considering Natural and Man-made Protection Systems
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Difference between Al-Manzala Lake water level and Al-Salam Canal Bank level
Section Number
Distance from the beginning of Al-Salam Canal (km zero at the Nile
Damietta Branch) (km)
Difference in Levels between the canal bank
and lake water (m)
18 3.28
2122.84
3163.21
4273.6
5383.13
6432.68
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Al-Rodah (12 km) (2.84 m)
Al-Lithy (27 km) (3.6 m)
Al-Shipool (38 km) (3.13m)
Al=Atwy (8km) (3.28m)
Al-Manzala Lake Borders
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West Al-Burullus Port (+1.5 m ) N
Baltim (+2.0 m) E
New Road to Kafr Al-Sheikh (+2.15) S
Brimbal Area (+1.75 m) W
West New Port (+1.5 m) - N
Baltim (+2.0 m) - E
New Road (+ 2.15 m) S
Al-Burullus Lake Borders
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Mohammed Ali Sea Wall at Abu Quir Bay
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Distance along shore (Km).
Lev
el a
bove
MSL
(m
).
El M
an
sh
ia
El S
ilsila
El A
sa
fra
Sta
nly
Ibra
him
eia
Sid
i Ga
be
r
Sid
i Bis
hr
El M
on
taza
we
ste
rn b
ord
er
El K
as
ha
fa C
lub
Storm critical level
Cornish Level
Protection works
Bir
Ma
so
ud
GِAlexandria Cornish Level
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Final Results
Module )2(
Considering Mohammed Ali Sea Wall and Lakes Borders
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Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100,
(CoRI 2007)2025 2050
2075 2100
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Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta Area According to CoRI measurements till 2100
(With Mohammed Ali wall lakes borders)
Year2025205020752100
Total Area Affected (km2)93.68134.0139.2183.8
Total % of the Nile Delta Area
0.370.540.560.74
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Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario
2025 2050
2075 2100
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Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (B1 scenario)
(With Mohammed Ali wall lake's borders)
Year2025205020752100
Total Area Affected (km2)118.5169.45221.83243.1
Total % of the Nile Delta Area0.450.680.890.97
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Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario
2025 2050
2075 2100
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Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario)
(With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders)
Year2025205020752100
Total Area Affected (km2)152.86256.27450761.4
Total % of the Nile Delta Area0.611.031.83.01
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On-going Projects
Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Nile Delta Coastal Zone, Egypt, 2009-2012
Funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC)
Main ObjectiveResearch project addresses vulnerability assessment and adaptation options for potential impact of SLR in coastal zone
Case study application in Ras ElBar - Gammasa Region
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Project Overview
Project ComponentsExpected OutcomesExpected Outputs
1. Regulatory Framework and Institutional Capacity
Enhanced capacity to improve resilience of coastal settlements and development infrastructure is strengthened
Output 1.1 Coastal development legislation and regulations modified (focusing on ICZM and EIA);
Output 1.2 Institutional capacity of NCZMC strengthened;
Output 1.3 Information systems established that reflect climate change impacts/research on coastal zones
Output 1.4 Budgetary planning of Shore Protection Agency enacted to reflect climate change risks;
2. On the ground measures
Innovative and environmentally friendly adaptation measures enforced within the framework of Nile Delta ICZM.
Output 2.1 Innovative adaptation pilot activities implemented to protect vulnerable coastal lagoons;
Output 2.2 Socio-economic assessment and adaptation option appraisal undertaken;
Output 2.3 Integration of climate risk assessment into the ICZM framework for the Nile Delta
3. Knowledge management
M&E framework and knowledge management system in place
Output 3.1 M&E system with measureable indicators introduced;
Output 3.2 Lessons codified and disseminated through the Adaptation Learning Mechanism (ALM)
Output 3.3 Lessons disseminated throughout Egyptian Institutions.
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Main Objectives
Assess vulnerability for key infrastructures and prediction of changes in soil salinity
Survey of drainage system infrastructure; main canals, hydraulic structures ;pump stations, WWTP; and important buildings/roads
Field investigations in selective profiles for collecting data of soil and ground water properties
Results Majority of drainage infrastructures can be considered in safe zone Predicted changes in soil salinity as a result of SLR showed expand of
affected distance to reach 1 Kilometer from shoreline of the study area by year 2100
Progress in Project: Selective results Vulnerability of Drainage System Infrastructures andprojected changes in soil salinity with Expected SLR
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Progress in Project: Selective results
Impact of SLR on Groundwater and Salinity Intrusion
Main objectivePredict changes in salt intrusion and elevation in groundwater levels
Results Potential advancement of saltwater/freshwater interface and groundwater rise for SLR scenarios in years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100
Vulnerability analysis that highlighted spots with low resilience capacity and hence need for special attention
Mitigation strategy with alternative policies for adaptation to be considered within the study area
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Predicted Movement of Salinewater/Freshwater interface
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Ele
vati
on
(m)
Distance (m)
Land Level
Ground Water
Saline/Fresh Interface
Sea Level (SLR)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Ele
vati
on
(m)
Distance (m)
Land Level
Ground Water
Saline/Fresh Interface
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000E
leva
tio
n (m
)
Distance (m)
Land Level
Ground Water
Saline/Fresh Interface
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Ele
vati
on
(m)
Distance (m)
Land Level
Ground Water
Saline/Fresh Interface
2025
2050
2075
2100
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Expected GW depths in 2100 due to SLR
(-10)
(-5) (-1) (0)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1.25)
(1)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5) (1.75)
(1.75)
(1.75)
(1.75)
(1.75)
(1.75) (1.75)
(1.75)
(1.75)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2) (2)
(2)
(2) (2)
(2)
(2)
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Vulnerability assessmentRegions of concern
spots more susceptible to water logging as a result of land level , soil properties and GW depth
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Changes in Wave Climate and Sediment Transport
Main Objectives
Check the effect of global warming in wave climate and sediment transport in front of the Nile delta coast
Follow the effect of changes in bed morphology on wave characteristics and sediment transport
Process
Measurements of wave data in years1998 and 2010
Simulation of wave distribution using ImSedTran-2D model
Simulation of sediment transport using GENESIS
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0
10
20
30
40
50
N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW
Perc
enta
ge o
f Occ
urre
nce
)%(
Direction
< 3 m
2 To< 3 m
1.5 To< 2 m
1 To< 1.5 m
0.5 To< 1 m
0 To< 0.5 m
Wave height
Changes in Wave Climate
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Changes in Wave Characteristics
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Changes in Wave Climate
Wave Climate19982010
Significant wave height 0.94 m1.31 m
Average wave height 0.5 m0.76 m
Predominant wave direction North NorthWest )NNW(
NorthWest )NW(
Average storm height 2.75 m2.46 m
Total duration of storms1.6 day/year3.5 day/year
predominant storm direction NorthNorthWest
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Changes in Sediment Transport
Locationgross sediment transport rate
Gamassa to Damietta harbor 348000 m3/year
east of Damietta harbor1342000 m3/year
west of the Damietta harborno noticeable change in sediment transport
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Regular Gathering with Civil Society Stakeholders & local community categories
In cooperation with the project partners, CoRI rganizes and hold meeting with civil society stakeholders and various categories of the community in the study area for:
Raising awareness Encourage involvementGuaranteed advocacy and cooperation from their part
in upcoming stagesConsultation for optimized adaptation policies
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Positions of the surveyed beach profiles analyzed in this study
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Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline change Locationlong-term changeShort-term change
Damietta Promontory between profiles P41 and P47
Emotional processes )-38.2 m/year(
Erosion along Damietta promontory tip has been terminated as a result of the construction of the 6-km long seawall in 1996-2002
East of Damietta Promontory )The Damietta spit (.
No spit Accretion with a rate )3 m/year( and formation of the spit .
Ras El Bar BeachErosion with a rate )-7.7 m/year(
Accretion with a rate )15 m/year( due to building eight detached breakwaters.
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Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline change
Locationlong-term changeShort-term change
East of Damietta harborNo erosionA maximum rate of erosion -13 m/year
West of Damietta harbor Erosion with a rate )5 m/year(.
Accretion with a rate )15m/year(.
Gamasa EmbaymentAccretion with a maximum rate of 20m/year.
The maximum rate of accretion become 16 m/year Erosion appears east of Gamasa drain with a rate) -9 m/year and -4 m/year(
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Continuity & Application GEF project
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nile Delta through Integrated Coastal Zone Management
Global Environment Facility
GoalEnhance Egypt’s resilience and reduce vulnerability to
Climate Change impacts through ICZM in context of CC
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Adaptation Assessment
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Adaptation Supporting Systems
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Adaptive Supporting Systems
According to IPCC summary report for decision makers, Nov. 2007, it is recommended to create wetlands in areas vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying deltas. )Al-Manzalla, Al-Burullus, Idku, and Maryot Lakes are one of the natural adaptation processes(.
Protection constructions carried out by Shore Protection Authority )SPA( )Damietta, Rosetta, and Al-Burullus(.
Natural sand dunes systems
Mohammed Ali Wall which protects low lands at Abu-Quir Bay in the western region of the Nile Delta.
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•Resources and capacities of Coastal Research Institute )CoRI( built since 1971 and other related-research institutions in Egypt.
•The international road could act as the second defensive line to protect north zone of the country. In this concern, it should be mentioned that UNDP in 1992 had a roundtable meeting about considering the road as a mitigation measure against the impact of sea level rise.
•Al-Salam Canal goes by Al-Manzalla Lake and its banks have levels more that two meters above lake's water level. Aerial-photos used in the study do not consider the canal as they were established before its construction.
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Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road
International coastal road
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Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast and coastal protection works
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Sand Dunes At the West Side of Rosseta
Region
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Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low Lands )1.5m - 2.5m Below Sea Level(
على محمد حائط
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Abu Quir Bay
Low Lands (1.5 – 2.5 m Below Sea Level)
Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall
Muhammed Ali Sea Wall
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Ras Al Bar
Ras Al-Bar Resort Under Sea Attack Before the Construction of Protection
Works
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Detached Breakwater
Ras Al-Bar Resort Has Gained Lands After the Construction of Protection Works
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Adaptation Process and Policies
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Sand dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line for the Nile Delta.
Decision makers in coastal governorates as well as concerned ministers should be aware of the importance of sand dunes systems and their role in protecting the coastal zone of the Nile Delta.
Consideration should be paid to coastal lakes as one of the most appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise.
Coastal international road should be considered as the second protection measure and studies to support it are urgently required.
Coastal protection constructions need regular maintenance and should be considered in any coastal zone management plans.
The northwest coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian-Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.
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Recommendations Capacity building in terms of staff, technologies, modeling, ….etc. A comprehensive national and regional response strategy Coordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain ecosystem Preparation of integrated coastal zone management scheme Research budget and funds should be increased to cope with the
national and international crisis regarding climate change and its impacts and adaptation studies.
Building co-operative mechanizm to integrate all efforts Awareness program and media campaign Regional monitoring and observation system Regional data base and knowledge exchange system Regular Maintenance program for protection structures The following aspects are recommended to be covered in further
studies for the coastal zones: Potential impacts on land and groundwater salinity Potential impacts on patterns of waves and currents
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Potential impacts on erosion and accretion systems due to currents, waves, and wind actions
Potential impacts on lakes ecosystems Potential impacts on water resources and drainage
systems Potential impacts on fisheries due to changes
expected in current patterns Potential impacts on infrastructures and natural
resources of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta Potential impacts of climate changes on evaporation
from oceans and seas open waters and their role in reducing SLR
Potential impacts of temperature increase on phyto-plankton role in absorbing CO2 and generating A2.
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Thank You All