vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in europe

Upload: nguyen-thanh-luan

Post on 03-Apr-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    1/81

    Vulnerability and adaptation toclimate change in Europe

    EEA Technical report No 7/2005

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    2/81

    Cover design: EEALayout: Scanprint A/S, EEA

    Legal noticeThe contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the EuropeanCommission or other institutions of the European Communities. Neither the European EnvironmentAgency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use thatmay be made of the information contained in this report.

    All rights reservedNo part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical,including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrieval system, without the

    permission in writing from the copyright holder. For translation or reproduction rights please contactEEA (address information below).

    Information about the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through theEuropa server (http://europa.eu.int).

    Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2006

    ISBN 92-9167-814-7ISSN 1725-2237

    EEA, Copenhagen 2006

    European Environment AgencyKongens Nytorv 61050 Copenhagen K

    DenmarkTel.: +45 33 36 71 00Fax: +45 33 36 71 99Web: www.eea.eu.intEnquiries: www.eea.eu.int/enquiries

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    3/813

    Contents

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 5

    Executive summary .................................................................................................... 6

    1 Introduction .........................................................................................................91.1 Background .................................................................................................... 91.2 Objectives of the report ..................................................................................101.3 Definitions of vulnerability and adaptation .........................................................101.4 Scope of the report.........................................................................................111.5 Sources of information ....................................................................................121.6 Outline of the report .......................................................................................12

    2 EU policy frameworks ........................................................................................132.1 Climate change policies ...................................................................................132.2 Integration in other policies .............................................................................13

    3 Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives ................................................. 153.1 Vulnerability of natural environment and associated services ...............................15

    3.1.1 Natural ecosystems and biodiversity .......................................................153.1.2 Agriculture ..........................................................................................163.1.3 Fisheries .............................................................................................18

    3.1.4 Forestry ..............................................................................................193.1.5 Mountains and sub arctic regions............................................................203.1.6 Water resources ...................................................................................213.1.7 Coastal zones ......................................................................................21

    3.2 Vulnerability of socio-economic sectors .............................................................233.2.1 Tourism .............................................................................................233.2.2 Human health care ..............................................................................243.2.3 Energy................................................................................................25

    3.3 Conclusions ..................................................................................................263.3.1 Key vulnerability issues .........................................................................263.3.2 Limitations of vulnerability assessments and further needs 27

    4 Adaptation to climate change impacts in Europe: country perspectives 29

    4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................294.2 National policy frameworks for adaptation .........................................................304.3 Enhancing scientific capacity for adaptation .......................................................334.4 Adaptation measures to address key vulnerability issues .....................................35

    4.4.1 Maintaining the health of Europe's ecosystems .........................................354.4.2 Managing Europe's water resources ........................................................364.4.3 Protecting people and infrastructure from coastal and river floods 364.4.4 Preventing and managing natural hazards ...............................................384.4.5 Ensuring good health of the population ...................................................394.4.6 Coping with changing dynamics in business .............................................40

    4.5 Summary ......................................................................................................41

    Contents

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    4/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Contents

    4

    5 Key challenges and opportunities for adaptation in Europe ................................ 425.1 Challenges ....................................................................................................42

    5.1.1 Limitations in scenarios .........................................................................425.1.2 Gaps in knowledge for supporting adaptation decisions and actions 43

    5.1.3 Lack of policy guidance and institutional support ......................................435.1.4 Insufficient coordination between sectors and countries .............................44

    5.2 Opportunities .................................................................................................445.2.1 Growing awareness .............................................................................455.2.2 Market opportunities .............................................................................455.2.3 'Win-win' options .................................................................................455.2.4 'No-regret' strategies ............................................................................46

    6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 476.1 Scientific and technical capacity in support of adaptation planning ........................47

    6.1.1 Scenario data for in-depth impacts, vulnerabilityand adaptation assessments ............................................................................476.1.2 Comprehensive and quantitative assessments ..........................................47

    6.1.3 Integrated assessment .........................................................................476.1.4 Research on the theory and practices of adaptation ..................................48

    6.2 Communication, information exchange and experience sharing .............................486.3 Adaptation planning and implementation ..........................................................496.4 Policy frameworks for adaptation .....................................................................50

    Appendix 1 Case studies ........................................................................................... 51A1.1 Case study 1 System vulnerability: natural Ecosystems in Europe .....................52A1.2 Case study 2 regional vulnerability: the Alpine Region .....................................58A1.3 Case study 3 Sectoral vulnerability: droughtsin the Mediterranean Basin ....................................................................................62

    Appendix 2 Summary of country-by-country sectoral vulnerability issues................ 67

    Appendix 3 Template for information on climate change vulnerabilityand adaptation......................................................................................................... 69

    A3.1 Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments .......................................69A3.2 Policy framework ...........................................................................................69A3.3 Recent/on-going adaptation initiatives ..............................................................69

    References ............................................................................................................... 70

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    5/815

    Acknowledgements

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    The European Environment Agency's EuropeanTopic Centre for Air and Climate Change(ETC/ACC) provided input to this report. Thecoordinating input from the ETC was provided byXianfu Lu (Tyndall Centre, the United Kingdom).

    Contributors included, in alphabetical order:Alison Colls (Tyndall Centre, the United Kingdom);

    Markus Erhard (IMK-IFU, ForschungszentrumKarlsruhe, Germany);

    Uta Fritsch (Potsdam Institute for Climate ImpactResearch);

    Jelle van Minnen (Netherlands EnvironmentalAssessment Agency, the Netherlands);

    Thomas Voigt (Umweltbundesamt, Germany).

    The EEA project manager was Andr Jol.

    EEA acknowledges the comments received on thedraft report from the National Focal Points of EEAmember countries and the European Commission(DG Environment), which have been included inthe final version of the report as far as practicallyfeasible.

    Acknowledgements

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    6/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe6

    Executive summary

    Significant changes in climate and their impacts arealready visible globally, and are expected to becomemore pronounced. In Europe, mountain regions,coastal zones, wetlands and the Mediterraneanregion are particularly vulnerable. Although thereare some positive effects, many impacts are adverse.

    Existing adaptive measures are concentrated inflood defence, so there is considerable scope foradaptation planning and implementation in otherareas, such as public health, water resources andmanagement of ecosystems.

    The need for adaptation

    Projections for 2100 suggest that temperature inEurope will have risen by between 2 to 6.3 C above1990 levels. The sea level is projected to rise, and agreater frequency and intensity of extreme weatherevents are expected. Even if emissions of greenhouse

    gases stop today, these changes would continuefor many decades and in the case of sea level forcenturies. This is due to the historical build up ofthe gases in the atmosphere and time lags in theresponse of climatic and oceanic systems to changesin the atmospheric concentration of the gases.

    The Environment Council of the European Unionhas recently confirmed the EU indicative target of amaximum of 2 C global temperature increase abovepre-industrial levels in order to avoid severe adverseimpacts of climate change. Achieving such a target

    will require substantial reductions of global GHGemissions over and above those already agreedunder the Kyoto Protocol. There is also growingrecognition that Europe must adapt to the climatechange impacts that inevitably will occur.

    Vulnerability

    Vulnerability refers to the risk of adverse impacts fromclimate change, including extreme weather events andsea level rise, on both natural and human systems.

    Regional vulnerability

    Regions: South-eastern Europe, the Mediterraneanand central European regions are the most

    vulnerable to climate change. Here, considerableadverse impacts are projected to occur on naturaland human systems that are already under pressurefrom changes in land use, for example. Northernand some western regions of Europe, on theother hand, may experience beneficial impacts,

    particularly within agriculture, for some period oftime.

    Mountains and sub-arctic areas: Impacts oftemperature rise on snow cover, glaciers andpermafrost are likely to have adverse impacts onwinter tourism. There could also be an increasedrisk of natural hazards, and loss of plant species andhabitats. Mountainous regions, like the Alps, areparticularly vulnerable to climate change and arealready suffering from higher than average increasesin temperature.

    Coastal zones: Climate change could haveprofound impacts on coastal zones due to sea levelrise and changes in frequency and/or intensity ofstorms. This would result in threats to ecosystems,infrastructure and settlements, the tourism industryand human health. Habitats and coastal ecosystemson the Baltic, Mediterranean and Black Seas inparticular are at high risk. It is projected that theMediterranean and Baltic coasts will experienceconsiderable loss of wetlands.

    Vulnerability by issue

    Ecosystems and biodiversity: Observedtemperature rises and changes in precipitationpatterns already affect various aspects of Europe'snatural systems. The most vulnerable ecosystemsare the European arctic and mountains, coastalwetlands and ecosystems in the Mediterraneanregion. Projected climate change is expected tolead to considerable losses of species and habitatsthroughout Europe.

    Agriculture and fisheries: Climate change andincreased CO

    2

    concentration could have a beneficialimpact on agriculture and livestock systems innorthern Europe through longer growing seasonsand increasing plant productivity. However, in the

    Executive summary

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    7/81

    Executive summary

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 7

    south and parts of eastern Europe the impact islikely to be negative. In fisheries, changes in fishmigration patterns are expected to occur. However,resource over-exploitation is currently a more

    important factor threatening the sustainability ofcommercial fisheries in Europe.

    Forestry: Climate change will probably result inyield increases in commercial forests in northernEurope. However, Mediterranean regions andcontinental Europe will experience decreases inyield due to more frequent droughts. In addition,increased risks of fire are likely in southern Europe.

    Water resources: Temperature rise and changingprecipitation patterns are expected to exacerbate the

    already acute water shortage problem in southernand south-eastern regions. Changes in frequencyand intensity of droughts and floods are projected,which could cause significant financial and humanloss throughout Europe.

    Tourism: Unreliable snow cover resulting fromtemperature rise is likely to lead to a loss in wintertourism. Water shortage, water quality problems,and more frequent and intense heat waves insouthern Europe could cause notable reductions insummer tourism. However, new opportunities fortourism may arise in other areas.

    Human health:Changes in frequency and intensityof extreme weather and climate events could pose aserious threat to human health. These threats mayeither be direct, such as heat waves and flooding,or indirect, for example by the spread of tick-bornediseases. Particularly vulnerable sections of thepopulation are elderly people with limited access tohealth care services.

    Energy: Temperature rise is likely to increaseenergy demand for air conditioning in the summer,

    particularly in southern Europe. Such extra powerdemand, compounded by climate change inducedreduction in hydro-production and problems withcooling water availability could cause disruption toenergy supplies.

    Adaptation

    Strategies and policies

    Adaptation refers to policies, practices and projectswhich can either moderate damage and/or realiseopportunities associated with climate change.

    At global level, the 2004 UN Framework Conventionon Climate Change conference agreed to develop

    a five year, structured programme of work on thescientific, technical and socio-economic aspects ofimpacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climatechange.

    So far, the integration of climate changeconsiderations into key EU environmental policies,such as the EU Biodiversity Strategy, the HabitatsDirective and the Water Framework Directive, hasnot yet taken place to any great extent. Neitherhas such integration occurred in other relevant EUpolicy areas, such as the common agricultural policy(CAP).

    At EU and national level, a number of researchprogrammes assessing the implications of potential

    climate change impacts have been planned orare about to commence. Research started morerecently in support of planning of national andinternational adaptation measures. In 2004, theEuropean Commission initiated the developmentof a European action programme on flood riskmanagement, including a possible future FloodsDirective. In this context, climate change has beenmentioned as a key issue. Then, in October 2005,the Commission launched the second phase ofthe European Climate Change Programme. Thisprogramme is primarily aimed at identifyingadditional measures to reduce greenhouse gas

    emissions in order to achieve the Kyoto Protocoltargets. Here, for the first time, it was agreed toaddress adaptation issues.

    A consultation process with stakeholders willbe held in 2006 to discuss the EU role in climatechange adaptation policies. The aim is to integrateadaptation into relevant European policy areas inorder to identify good, cost-effective practice in thedevelopment of adaptation policy, and to fosterlearning. The Commission aims to publish a greenpaper by the end of 2006.

    At national level, strategies are currently underpreparation in Denmark, Finland and the UnitedKingdom. In many EEA member countriesadaptation measures are either planned or takingplace in the context of natural hazard prevention,environment protection and sustainable resourcemanagement.

    Examples of actual or planned measures are:

    Austria: natural hazards and tourism in theAlps;

    Belgium: river flood risk management; Finland: hydropower generation, infrastructure

    (transport, buildings) and forestry;

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    8/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Executive summary

    8

    France: health sector and forestry; Italy: coastal zone management and tourism in

    the Alps; Norway : infrastructure (buildings) and forestry;

    the Netherlands: river flood risk managementand coastal zone flood defence;

    Spain: agriculture (droughts); Sweden: forestry; Switzerland: hydropower generation,

    ecosystems and tourism in the Alps; the United Kingdom: river flood risk

    management, coastal zone flood defence andinsurance.

    Adaptation challenges

    Development and implementation of adaptationmeasures is a relatively new issue. Existing adaptivemeasures are very much concentrated in flooddefence, which has enjoyed a long tradition ofdealing with weather extremes. Concrete adaptationpolicies, measures and practices outside this area arestill scarce. Therefore, there is considerable scope for

    advancing adaptation planning and implementationin areas such as public health, water resources andmanagement of ecosystems. There are a numberof challenges which should be addressed to make

    progress on climate change adaptation. Theseinclude:

    improving climate models and scenarios atdetailed regional level, especially for extremeweather events, to reduce the high level ofuncertainty;

    advancing understanding on 'good practice'in adaptation measures through exchange andinformation sharing on feasibility, costs and

    benefits; involving the public and private sector, and the

    general public at both local and national level; enhancing coordination and collaborationboth within and between countries to ensurethe coherence of adaptation measures withother policy objectives, and the allocation ofappropriate resources.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    9/819

    Introduction

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    1.1 Background

    Atmospheric build-up of greenhouse gases hasaltered the energy balance within the Earth's climatesystem and has resulted in significant changesin important aspects of our climate. The Third

    Assessment Report (TAR) of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (hereafter referred toas the IPCC) concluded that 'an increasing body ofobservations gives a collective picture of a warmingworld' with 'new and stronger evidence that most of thewarming observed in the past 50 years is attributableto human activities'. Without drastic changes in thecurrent production and consumption patterns,the trend in global emissions of greenhouse gaseswill continue. By 2100, global surface temperatureis projected to warm by 1.4 to 5.8 C, and global-mean sea-level to rise by 9 to 88 cm in relationto the 1990 levels (IPCC, 2001). In line with this

    global climate trend, climate in Europe has beenchanging and has had a wide range of impacts onthe natural environment and human society in theRegion. During the 21st century, temperature inEurope is projected to rise by 2.0 to 6.3C (Parry,2000). Temperature and other changes in the climatesystem are likely to induce profound changes in thefunctioning and services of European's natural andhuman systems (EEA, 2004a).

    In recognition of the significance of combatingclimate change, countries have under the United

    Nations, initiated actions to reduce greenhouse gasemissions, and hence to mitigate global climatechange. The ultimate objective of the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (hereafter referred to as the UNFCCC) (1)(Article 2) is to 'stabilise greenhouse gas concentrationsin the atmosphere at a level that would preventdangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatesystem'. Although there are scientific and politicaluncertainties on the determination of concentrationlevels below which this condition can be consideredfulfilled, it is generally recognized that substantial

    further emission reductions are needed beyond thereductions required by the Kyoto Protocol (2) of theUNFCCC. Without further policies and measures toreduce greenhouse gas emissions global emissionsof carbon dioxide (the most important greenhousegas) are projected to rise by 60 % by 2030 above

    the 1990 level (IEA, 2004). Discussions startedin 2005 under the UNFCCC process on possiblefuture (post-2012) emission targets, guided by theultimate objective of the UNFCCC. In line withthe UNFCCC's underlying principles of common

    but differentiated responsibilities and respectivecapabilities, developed countries and (some) newlyindustrialized countries could be expected to furtherreduce their emissions while developing countriesmay be allowed an increase for some period.

    Even if emissions of greenhouse gases stop today,these changes would continue for many decades and

    in the case of sea level for centuries. This is due tothe historical build up of the gases in the atmosphereand time lags in the response of climatic and oceanicsystems to changes in the atmospheric concentrationof the gases (Wigley, 2005).

    Therefore, in addition to emission reduction(mitigation) measures, it is essential that naturalas well as human systems also develop adequateadaptive responses to avoid the risks posed by, andto take advantage of the opportunities arising fromglobal climate change. The Conference of the Parties

    to the UNFCCC (COP-10, Buenos Aires, 2004)formally requested its Subsidiary Body for Scientificand Technological Advice (SBSTA) to develop astructured five-year programme of work on thescientific, technical and socio-economic aspects ofimpacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climatechange. This programme is to address issues relatedto methodologies, data and modelling; vulnerabilityassessments; adaptation planning, measures andactions; and integration of climate change concernsinto sustainable development (3). Informationpresented in this report could be of assistance as

    1 Introduction

    (1) Full text of the Convention is available at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.(2) Full text of the Protocol is available at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf.(3) Source: Decision 1/CP.10 of the UNFCCC (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop10/10a01.pdf#page=2).

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    10/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Introduction

    10

    the European Union (hereafter referred to as theEU)'s contribution to the development of this WorkProgramme.

    As a region of industrialized countries, Europehas been focusing its climate policy on mitigation.However, as the impacts of climate change becomemore evident also for Europe and scientificstudies reveal more reasons for concerns under achanging climate, countries in Europe have startedto plan for and implement measures to adapt toprojected climate change and their impacts. The EUEnvironment Council meeting in December 2004and subsequent meetings in 2005 highlighted theneed to prepare for and adapt to the consequencesof some inevitable climate change. By documenting

    the wide ranging impacts of climate change, theEuropean Environment Agency (EEA) also calledfor adaptive responses to climate change in Europe(EEA, 2004a). Several EU Member States havealready developed national adaptation strategies.

    1.2 Objectives of the report

    This report is prepared with the followingobjectives:

    to provide information on vulnerability in

    Europe, highlighting the need for adaptation; to facilitate information sharing among EEA

    member countries and learning from 'bestpractices in vulnerability assessments andadaptation planning';

    to contribute to the discussion on adaptationstrategies and policies at EU and national level;

    to identify current and future information needs,towards which the EEA and other organizationsmight be able to contribute.

    1.3 Definitions of vulnerability andadaptation

    With the rapid growth of literature on climatechange vulnerability and adaptation, concepts ofvulnerability and adaptation have been re-defined.In particular, the process of bringing climatechange into mainstream strategies and policieshas re-introduced some of the broader definitionsof vulnerability and adaptation (Downing andPatwardhan, 2005).

    The literature on risk, hazards, poverty anddevelopment is concerned with underdevelopmentand exposure to climate variability, amongother pressures and threats. Within this context,vulnerability is a function of the state ofdevelopment. It is often manifested in some aspectof human condition, such as ill health and poverty.Adaptation, in this regard, is to focus on building orenhancing adaptive capacity to reduce vulnerability(Figure 1).

    Within the context of climate change, the IPCCdefines vulnerability in climate change terms:

    the degree to which a system is susceptible to,or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climatechange, including climate variabilityand extremes.Vulnerability is a function of the character,magnitude, and rate of climate variation to whicha system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptivecapacity. Adaptation is defined as adjustment in

    Hazard literature

    Vulnerability = f(state ofdevelopment)Adaptation: building/enhancing/adaptive capacity to reduce vulnerability

    Climate change (IPCC)

    Vulnerability =Adverse impacts = adaptationAdaptation: moderating damages, and/or realising opportunities to reduce vulnerability

    This report

    Vulnerability =Adverse impactsAdaptation: policies, practices, projects for moderating damages, and/or realising opportunities

    Figure 1 Definitions of vulnerability and adaptation

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    11/81

    Introduction

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 11

    natural or human systems in response to actualor expected climatic stimuli or their effects, whichmoderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunitiesassociated with climate change (4). Hence,vulnerability is seen as the residual impacts ofclimate change after adaptation measures have been

    implemented (see Figure 1).

    Therefore, both vulnerability and adaptationdepend on context and scale. There are no universaldefinitions for vulnerability and adaptation.Different meanings of vulnerability are surveyedin literature (Downing and Patwardhan, 2005). It issuggested that broader definitions of vulnerabilityare most useful when addressing adaptation policyneeds but, when the term is used, care should

    be taken to explicitly specify its derivation andmeaning.

    The uncertainty surrounding climate change, itsimpacts and adaptive processes is so formidablethat very little can be said yet with confidenceabout adaptive capacity and adaptation, andtherefore also about vulnerability to long-termclimate change by the IPCC definition. Therefore,throughout this report, vulnerability is definedas 'a state induced from adverse impacts of climatechange, including variability and extremes, and sealevel rise, of both natural and human systems.' In otherwords, vulnerability of natural and human systemsto unmanaged climate change is presented anddiscussed. Adaptation refers to 'policies, practices,

    and projects with the effect of moderating damages and/orrealising opportunities associated with climate change',including climate variability and extremes and sealevel rise (see Figure 1).

    Readers are referred to literature (Downing and

    Patwardhan, 2005) for more extensive discussionson different definitions of vulnerability and thedeterminants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity(Brooks et al., 2005).

    1.4 Scope of the report

    This report aims to provide an overview of keyvulnerabilities to, and ongoing activities foradapting to the impacts of climate change, includingclimate variability and sea level rise, in EEA member

    countries. The aim is also to identify challenges forclimate change adaptation strategies and measuresin Europe. This report is a follow-up of the EEAreport on climate change impacts (EEA, 2004a),and should also be considered in connection withother EEA reports (e.g. on water, coastal zonemanagement, biodiversity). Since this is the firstEEA report on vulnerability and adaptation toclimate change, it should be regarded as a scopingstudy. A more detailed analysis of adaptationpractices in Europe is planned for a subsequentEEA report due to be finalized in 2006. Further, theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) due to bepublished in 2007, will include a volume treating the

    (4) Source: the glossary of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/syrgloss.pdf.

    Significant adverse impactsof current climate variability, and

    future unmanaged climatechange including variability

    and extremes

    Adaptation

    Adaptive capacityand motivation

    Knowledge developmentPublic awareness andorganisational learningPolicy frameworks, ...

    Socio-economic conditionsCurrent and future socio-economic, and non-climaticenvironmental conditions

    Impacts

    Beneficial and

    adverse impactsof current climate variability, andfuture climate change including

    variability and extremes

    Chapter 3 of this report

    EEA Report on impacts Chapters 4 and 5 of this reportEEA Report on adaptation in 2006

    Vulnerabilities

    Figure 2 Major components of this report in relation to the key subjects of climate changeimpacts, vulnerability and adaptation

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    12/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Introduction

    12

    issues of climate change impacts, vulnerability andadaptation, with one chapter on Europe. The OECDhas recently started a project on adaptation in OECDcountries which should also be considered by any

    related EEA work in the future. Figure 2 illustratesthe major components of this report in relation to thekey subjects of climate change impacts, vulnerability,and adaptation.

    1.5 Sources of information

    This study used a combination of methods to collectand analyse information:

    A large body of literature on climate change

    impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Europewas reviewed (e.g. IPCC reports, relevantchapters of national communications to theUNFCCC, publications of EU-funded research

    projects, national assessment reports, andresearch journal articles);

    A questionnaire was developed to elicit first-hand and up-to-date information on national

    vulnerability assessment, adaptation strategies,policies and measures in EEA member countries

    1.6 Outline of the report

    Climate change vulnerability and adaptation inEurope within the context of EU policy frameworksis briefly reviewed in Section 2. Section 3 thenintroduces the scientific overview of sectoralvulnerability in Europe. Adaptation policies andpractices are discussed with a country perspectivein Section 4. Section 5 highlights the challenges to

    adaptation to climate change in Europe. Finally, theconclusions are summarised in Section 6. Three casestudies with in-depth information on vulnerabilityissues in Europe are presented in Appendix 1.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    13/8113

    EU policy frameworks

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    2.1 Climate change policies

    By ratifying the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol,the EU committed itself to the ultimate goal of theConvention. The objective is to stabilise greenhousegases at levels sufficient to prevent dangerous

    anthropogenic climate change so that food securityis maintained, economic development is sustainableand ecosystems are able to adapt naturally. TheEU has implemented a number of common andcoordinated policies and measures to reducegreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A key measure,among other initiatives, is the EU-wide carbontrading scheme which started in 2005 (EuropeanCommission, 2004a).

    EU climate policy has mainly focused on mitigationover the past decade. In comparison, adaptation tothe potential impacts of climate change, including

    climate variability and sea level rise, has not yetbeen given much attention. However, under theUNFCCC process, the need for adaptation has

    been a recurrent focus at the recent Conferencesof Parties to the Convention. In view of the highlevel of vulnerability and limited adaptive capacityin developing countries, three international fundswere created under the Convention and its KyotoProtocol: a Special Climate Change (SCC) Fund tosupport adaptation and technology transfer; a LeastDeveloped Countries (LDCs) Fund to support thepreparation of National Adaptation Programmes

    of Action (NAPAs) (Burton et al., 2002); a KyotoProtocol Adaptation Fund to support adaptationprojects and programmes in participatingdeveloping countries (Adger et al., 2003; Dessaiand Schipper, 2003; Huq, 2002; Huq and Burton,2003). Although all such initiatives are developingcountry oriented, industrialised countries includingthe EU countries are requested to make voluntarycontributions towards these funds, to enablethe implementation of adaptation measures invulnerable developing countries. The EU andmany of its member countries have providedextensive financial and technical assistances to help

    developing countries in their adaptation efforts. Thisis also reflected in the EU Action Plan on ClimateChange and Development adopted in 2004 (5).

    Within the EU, there is growing public awarenessfor the likely changes in natural and human systems

    under a changing climate, and recognition ofthe need for taking proactive measures to adaptto such changes. At their meeting in December2004, the EU Environment Council concluded thatthere is a need to prepare for and adapt to theconsequences of some inevitable climate change.In addition, the Council mentioned the importanceof incorporating the consideration of climaterisks into poverty reduction strategies, nationalstrategies for sustainable development, and theneed to limit climate change effects in order to helpachieve the Millennium Development Goals andthe Johannesburg Plan of Implementation goals and

    targets, and the importance of the EU Action Planon climate change in the context of developmentcooperation, adopted by the Council (5).

    Furthermore, the European Commission in itsproposals for a post-2012 climate change strategymentioned the need for a European approach toclimate change (European Commission, 2005). Thiscommunication (and the associated staff workingpaper) also underlined the impacts on biodiversityand ecosystems of varying degrees of globaltemperature rise. The communication as well as

    various Environment Councils (December 2004,March 2005) reaffirmed the proposed EU targetof 2C global temperature increase above pre-industrial levels. This would help to avoid seriousadverse effects to, for example, water resources,ecosystems, biodiversity and human health.

    2.2 Integration in other policies

    In order to maintain a high level of biodiversityin general, the EU adopted its EuropeanBiodiversity Strategy in February 1998, as part

    2 EU policy frameworks

    (5) Details of the Action Plan are included in the Annex to the EU Council Conclusion 'Climate change in the context of developmentcooperation (7523/03 DEVEN 195 ENV 586).

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    14/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    EU policy frameworks

    14

    of its implementation of the UN Convention onBiodiversity. This strategy aims to anticipate,prevent and eradicate the causes of significantreduction or loss of biodiversity at the source.

    Climate change is mentioned in various parts of thestrategy text, including the context of climate changeimpact on biodiversity. The strategy was discussedat the Malahide Conference in 2004 (6). Thisconference proposed, among others, that habitatsand species most at risk from climate change need to

    be assessed by 2007, and appropriate managementplans subsequently prepared. To achieve objectives,the Nature Conservation European Directives(Birds, 79/409/CE, and Habitat, 92/43/CE) and theirsubsequent implementation network of sites, theNatura 2000 (N2K), can be helpful instruments.

    However, the development of specific strategiesand policies to address the effects of climate changeon biodiversity has not yet taken place at the EUlevel. Some measures, such as developing ecologicalcorridors, have been undertaken by some countriesto allow ecosystems to connect better and also toadapt to changing climate conditions.

    Climate change and its impacts on water bodiesin the EU are expected to affect the ecologicalquality of the surface and groundwater resourcesin Europe. Some efforts are being made to explorethe implications of climate change and its impacts

    on the implementation of the Water FrameworkDirective (WFD) (2000/60/EC). The Directive itselfdoes however not include specific provisions toaddress climate change impacts. Furthermore, uponthe request by the EU Member States, an extensiveassessment on potential impacts of climate changeon Europe's water dimension was carried out(Eisenreich, 2005). It is important for any impactassessment of climate change in the water sector toadopt the same scheme with relation to the river

    basin districts and bodies of water identified, andthe quantitative and qualitative aspect of the 'surface

    water status' and 'groundwater status', as definedin WFD. Furthermore, upon the request by the EUEnvironment Ministers, the European Commission

    will develop a proposal for an EU flood preventionand management action plan in 2006, including apossible future Floods Directive. The plan will makeprovision for an early warning system, integrated

    flood basin and flooding management plans, and thedevelopment of flood risk maps (7). In this context,climate change has been mentioned as a key issue.

    The declaration of the EU's Fourth MinisterialConference on Environment and Health (8)recognised that climate is already changing. Italso recognised that changes in the intensity andfrequency of extreme weather events, such as floods,heat-waves and cold spells, will pose additionalchallenges to health risk management. TheDeclaration calls for proactive and multidisciplinary

    approach by governments, agencies andinternational organisations and improvedinteraction at all levels. In particular, the ministersdecided to take action to reduce the current burdenof disease due to extreme weather and climateevents. It also called for further efforts to identify,prevent and adapt to the health impacts of climatechange and other global environmental changes tothe greatest extent possible.

    Other EU policies, such as the common agriculturalpolicy (CAP), do not yet include strategies orpolicies to explicitly address the current and future

    (potential) impacts of climate change.

    Under the second phase of the European ClimateChange Programme, the European Commission hasin October 2005 started a consultation process witha wide range of stakeholders to discuss and preparethe further development of the EU's climate policy.For the first time a working group on adaptation has

    been established. This working group will discussthe EU role in adaptation policies with the aim tointegrate adaptation fully into relevant Europeanpolicy areas, to identify good, cost-effective practice

    in the development of adaptation policy and tofoster learning. The Commission aims to publish agreen paper by the end of 2006.

    (6) http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/nature/biodiversity/develop_biodiversity_policy/malahide_conference/index_en.htm.(7) Source: http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/enivornment/water/flood_risk/index.htm.(8) http://www.euro.who.int/budapest2004/20040701_4.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    15/8115

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Since the early 1980s, scientific studies havegenerated a wealth body of knowledge on thepotential impacts of a changing climatic regime onEurope's natural environment and on society. Thissection summarises information from literature,and puts a specific focus on the potential adverse

    impacts of projected climate change and sea levelrise within the natural and socio-economic contextof Europe. Regional variations in vulnerability toprojected climate change are highlighted with aview to identifying priority areas where adaptationactions are most needed.

    Section 3.1 discusses vulnerability of Europe'snatural environment and associated services,while Section 3.2 focuses on the vulnerability ofother socio-economic sectors. Section 3.3 drawsconclusions on regional variations in vulnerabilityacross Europe and hence identifies priority areas for

    adaptation. In addition, three case studies have beenconducted as examples. These studies present in-depth information on how vulnerability is identifiedand what adaptation measures are required,planned or implemented. The case studies addressnatural ecosystems, a region (the Alps), and a sector

    (water resources). These case studies are included inAppendix 1 of the Report.

    3.1 Vulnerability of naturalenvironment and associated

    services

    3.1.1 Natural ecosystems and biodiversity

    The natural environment and human wellbeing inthe world, including Europe, largely depends onEarth ecosystems and the services they provide.Such services include food and water supply, climateregulation, and species preservation. Ecosystemshave always been influenced by man. Over the last50 years, however, humans have used ecosystemsmore intensively than in any comparable period oftime in human history (MA, 2005). Furthermore,

    most ecosystems and the biodiversity within thembecame exposed to multiple pressures, such ashabitat destruction, fragmentation, air pollution,and more recently climate change. As a result of

    both intense exploitation and multiple stresses,ecosystems and their services have been degraded in

    Box 1 Key messages from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

    Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any

    comparable period of time in human history. This is due largely to their needs to meet rapidly growing

    demands for food, fresh water, timber, fibre and fuel. This has resulted in a substantial and largelyirreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth.

    The changes that have been made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human

    well-being and economic development, but these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the

    form of the degradation of many ecosystem services, increased risks of nonlinear changes and the

    exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people. These problems, unless addressed, will substantially

    diminish the benefits that future generations obtain from ecosystems.

    The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this

    century and is a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals.

    The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their

    services can be partially met under some scenarios that the MA has considered but these involve

    significant changes in policies, institutions and practices, which are not currently under way. Many

    options exist to conserve or enhance specific ecosystem services in ways that reduce negative tradeoffs

    or that provide positive synergies with other ecosystem services.

    Source: MA, 2005.

    3 Vulnerability in Europe sectoralperspectives

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    16/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    16

    many parts of the world. Species composition withinthe ecosystems has undergone significant changes.Species have become extinct at rates 1001 000 timesgreater than what is considered to be normal; and

    the diversity of life on Earth has substantially, andlargely irreversibly, decreased (Hare, 2003; MA,2005). Box 1 summarises the key findings from theMillennium Ecosystem Assessment, an internationalwork programme which assessed trends inecosystem services and how changes in ecosystemsservices affect human well being now and in thefuture.

    Climate change has been a recent addition tothe list of environmental pressures that affectecosystems and their services. Climatic conditions

    determine, to a large extent, whether a species canexist in a certain area. They directly govern thepotential distribution, because species can oftenonly reproduce and live within specific climaticconditions. Indirectly climatic conditions affectthe potential distribution because they are closelylinked to ecosystem disturbances like forest firesand changes in nutrient supply through changesin soil decomposition. Such changes in climaticconditions affect the functioning and distributionof ecosystems. There is compelling evidence thatthe extent and rate of climate change observed hasaffected species and ecosystems already. These

    observations and scientific theory clearly suggestthat natural ecosystems are generally vulnerable toclimate change (Smith and Hitz, 2003). Relativelysmall changes in climate (e.g. global warming ofless than 1C) already have effects on ecologicalhotspots, whereas significant effects in many placesof the world can be expected if the warming exceeds2C.

    For Europe, observed temperature increase andprecipitation decrease already affect various aspectsof the natural ecosystems. For example, arctic

    mammals already suffer from the warmer conditionsand related change in sea ice extent. Vast lossesof habitats (50 % or more) are projected for globaltemperature rises of 23C. For the arctic, suchglobal temperature rise would imply a warming ofup to 7C. Some substantial declines in previouslystable species are reported in the United Kingdom(RSPB et al., 2005). Climate change is identified as amajor factor. WBGU (2003) identified four regionswith highly vulnerable ecosystems: The arctic region(including parts of Scandinavia and Greenland),mountain regions, various coastal zones acrossEurope, especially in the Baltic and various partsof the Mediterranean. The vulnerability of theseregions is discussed in more details in Appendix 1.

    A modelling exercise projects that by 2050, 80 % ofthe 2 000 (1 350 plants, 157 mammals, 108 reptilesand 383 breeding birds) surveyed current speciesacross Europe would be lost under high greenhouse

    gas emissions and climate change scenarios (Schrteret al., 2004). The detailed examination of theprojections for plants in 2050 under the full range ofscenarios suggests that 5 % of these species wouldlose all available habitats (Schrter et al., 2004).

    3.1.2 Agriculture

    Agriculture accounts for only a small part of grossdomestic production (GDP) in Europe. Therefore,the overall vulnerability of the European economyto changes that affect agriculture is low (Reilly,

    1996). Regionally and nationally, however, effectsmay be substantial, particularly in southern andcentral European countries where agriculturerepresents a more significant sector for employmentand GDP (see Figure 3). Intensive farming systemsin western Europe generally have a low sensitivityto climate change, and farmers are well resourcedand equipped to cope with changes. However, theagriculture sector in southern European countriesmay be among the most vulnerable to the direct andindirect impacts of projected climate change.

    Under a changing climate, drier conditions and

    rising temperatures in the Mediterranean region andparts of eastern Europe may lead to lower yields(Stuczyinski et al., 2000). Bindi and Moriondo (2005)showed a general reduction in yield of agriculturalcrops in the Mediterranean region, under the IPCCSRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2and B2 scenarios by 2050. Reductions in yields areexpected to be more significant in the southernMediterranean compared to the northern areas,even when the fertilising effect of increased CO

    2is

    taken into account. The southern Mediterranean isprojected to experience an overall reduction of crop

    yields due to climate change by 2050 (see Table 1)(Bindi and Moriondo, 2005).

    Such yield reductions have also been estimated foreastern Europe, with increased variability in yield,especially in the steppe regions (Maracchi et al.,2004).

    Furthermore, extreme weather events, such as hotspells, heavy storms, intense rain fall or droughts,can severely disrupt crop production all overEurope (Parry, 2000). The summer 2003 heat waveand drought conditions, for example, causedsignificant damage to the agricultural sector incentral and southern Europe through the reduction

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    17/81

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 17

    Without CO2

    With CO2

    A2-A B2-A A2-A B2-A

    C4 summer N-W 0.19 5.80 4.19 8,78

    N-E 4.43 2.54 0.60 0.21

    S-E 11.44 9.26 7.89 6.70

    S-W 12.87 8.94 9.38 6.37

    Legumes N-W 24.90 13.42 14.38 4.86

    N-E 18.59 8.11 7.19 0.97

    S-E 32.72 36.43 23.30 30.15S-W 33.26 25.81 23.92 18.48

    C3 summer N-W 21.79 10.44 12.41 2.85

    N-E 15.57 6.92 5.44 0.96

    S-E 7.44 8.19 3.66 0.41

    S-W 19.94 11.81 10.33 4.34

    Tubers N-W 10.37 4.24 4.87 7.53

    N-E 22.50 6.80 9.33 4.39

    S-E 18.22 15.77 4.31 5.66

    S-W 25.88 12.10 13.28 1.55

    Cereals N-W 10.97 3.49 0.29 4.68

    N-E 6.79 3.71 4.39 12.49

    S-E 15.08 17.17 4.88 10.15

    S-W 13.77 11.29 3.42 3.77

    Note: N-W = Portugal, Spain, France and Italy; N-E = Serbia, Greece and Turkey; S-E = Jordan, Egypt and Libya; S-W = Tunisia,Algeria and Morocco.

    Source: Bindi and Moriondo, 2005.

    Table 1 Percentage changes of crop yields for the main Mediterranean regions by 2050

    Figure 3 Agricultural employment and production in EU Member States

    Source: European Commission, 2004b.

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    Gree

    ce

    Cypr

    us

    Spai

    n

    Hung

    ary

    Lith

    uani

    a

    Port

    ugal

    Pola

    nd

    Esto

    nia

    Ital

    ia

    Latv

    ia

    Fran

    ce

    Neth

    erla

    nds

    Irel

    and

    Denm

    ark

    EU-1

    5

    EU-2

    5

    Mal

    ta

    Slov

    enia

    Aust

    ria

    Slov

    akia

    Czec

    hRe

    publ

    ic

    Belg

    ium

    Finl

    and

    Germ

    any

    Unite

    dKi

    ngdo

    m

    Swed

    en

    Luxe

    mbo

    urg

    %

    Share of agriculture in the GDP (%)

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    18/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    18

    in production and losses of financial capital (seeFigure 4). The projected increases in temperaturevariability over central Europe may also have severeimpacts on the agricultural production in this region

    (Schr et al., 2004).

    Changes in climate and CO2concentration affect

    livestock systems in different ways. Changescan be direct through the effects of weather andextreme climatic events on animal health, growthand reproduction, or indirect through changes inavailability and prices of grains for feeding, changesin productivity of pastures and forage crop, andchange in distribution of livestock diseases (Parry,2000). As a result, summer livestock production inthe Mediterranean and other southern regions, will

    experience adverse impacts.The distribution and intensity of existing pest,diseases, and weeds are likely to be more abundant.Currently exotic species may appear under awarmer climate, which would lead to changedeffects on yield and on control measures (Parry,2000). The need for plant protection will grow andthe use of pesticides and fungicides may increase(Parry, 2000).

    Particularly vulnerable regions in Europe are thosewhere there is a large reliance on traditional farmingsystems and production of quality foods. Wheresuch farming and production systems depend on

    favourable climatic conditions, climate change maycause large disruptions in rural society (Parry, 2000).

    3.1.3 Fisheries

    Detailed analyses of fish physiological responses towater temperature have suggested that the potentialimpact of climate change on freshwater andmarine fish is large (Wood and McDonald, 1997).Unfortunately, studies so far have mostly focused onsingle species, rather than at a level of fisheries.

    Studies on the likely faunal movements and rangeshifts suggest that there will be a northward shiftin the geographic distribution of Atlantic salmonin Europe. Local extinction at the southern edge ofthe current range and new habitats colonised in thenorth are likely (McCarthy and Houlihan, 1997).Cod in the North Sea are at the warm end of theirthermal range. Therefore, the ongoing warmingtrend in the eastern Atlantic has adversely affectedthe southern limits and stocks of cold-water fishsuch as North Sea cod.

    Figure 4 Impact of the summer 2003 heat wave and drought on agriculture and forestry infive countries

    Source: Adapted from UNEP/DEWA (2004); data from COPA-COGECA (2003).

    Impact on agricultural production 2003 and financial impact

    70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20

    Italy

    France

    Germany

    Spain

    Austria

    Difference compared to average (%)

    Poultry Potatoes Maize Wheat Fodder

    France

    4 000 mio

    Germany

    1 500 mio

    Italy

    45 000 mio

    Spain

    810 mio

    Austria

    197 mio

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    19/81

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 19

    Other factors are likely to combine with changesin temperature to decrease fish and shellfishproductivity. Chronic levels of pollution are knownto reduce marine and freshwater fish fecundity

    (Kime, 1995). Development of marine aquaculturemay be slowed by a decreasing availability of siteswith surface water that is cool enough and byincreased susceptibility to disease under a warmerclimate.

    Climate change is one of many factors affectingthe productivity and sustainability of fisheries.Resource overexploitation appears to be thesingle most important factor directly threateningthe sustainability of many commercial fisheriesin OECD countries. However, over-exploitation

    increases the vulnerability of fisheries to climatevariability and projected climate changes(Kundzewicz et al., 2001).

    3.1.4 Forestry

    About 30 % of Europe is covered by forests, whichmakes forest an important land cover type. Ina large part of Europe, forestry represents animportant economic sector and considerablepotential for carbon sequestration. The naturalrange of European tree species is primarilygoverned by temperature and the availability of

    soil moisture. The structure and composition of

    many forests are further influenced by naturaldisturbance regimes, such as fire, insects andwind-throw. Changes in climate are thereforelikely to affect the key features of forests both

    directly through changes in climate conditions andindirectly through disturbances and the way thatforests are managed.

    Model simulations suggest that, temperaturerise may lead to an increase in tree mortality insouthern and central Europe, where forests areat the edge of their bio-geographical distribution(Mindas and Skvarenina, 2003; Schrter et al., 2004,2005).

    Under a warmer climate, it is expected that the

    northern range limits of most native tree speciesin Europe will expand. The southern boundaryof some species will shift to north specifically atthe boundary of steppe and forest zones. Norwayspruce would withdraw from the coastal areas ofsoutheast and central Sweden, but remain in theinterior parts of southern Scandinavia (Bradshawet al., 2000). However, indirect impacts of climatechange, in particular accelerating disturbanceregimes, and human activities, such as forestmanagement and fire protection, could limit thedistribution of forests and species composition(Linder, 2000).

    Figure 5 Vulnerability of forest production across Europe in 2080, using the A1 HadCM3climate scenario

    Source: Schrter et al., 2004.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    20/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    20

    Limited moisture resulting from increasingtemperature and possible reduced summer rainfallmay lead to productivity declines in central andsouthern Europe (Lasch et al., 2002). Summer

    temperature rise and reduction of precipitation mayfurther increase fire risk (Lasch et al., 2002). Thevulnerability of forest production in central andsouthern Europe has recently been confirmed by theATEAM project (9) (see Figure 5).

    3.1.5 Mountains and sub arctic regions

    Mountain cryospheres and ecosystems are highlysensitive to climate conditions. Developmentof industry, tourism and communicationinfrastructures has already put pressure on some

    mountain areas in Europe. Under a changingclimate, some conflicts of interest in these regionsbetween economic development and environmentalsustainability are likely to occur (Diaz et al., 2003).

    With the high sensitivity of snow cover to changesin temperature, a rise in temperature would resultin earlier snow melt in spring. Currently observedwidespread decrease in snow cover duration at

    various low and mid altitudes in Switzerland(Laternser and Schneebeli, 2003), Slovakia (Vojteket al., 2003) and Croatia (Gajic-Capka, 2004) isassociated with temperature rise. It is estimated that1C rise in temperature would reduce the snowcover duration by up to several weeks (Hantel et al.,2000), even at high altitudes. A 4C warming wouldreduce the snow volume by 90 % at 1 000 m, and3040 % at 3 000 m in Switzerland (Beniston, 2003).It is estimated that permafrost in the low land willprogressively disappear in the north of Europe withincreasing temperatures (Haeberli and Burn, 2002).

    However, future changes in snow cover patterns, inrelation to precipitation patterns in winter, may slowdown the rate of such change (Harris et al., 2003;Stieglitz et al., 2003).

    For glaciated and perennially frozen regions,temperature increase will lead to an upward shiftof the glacier equilibrium line, from 6070 m perC

    (Vincent, 2002) to 140 m per C (Maish, 2000), higherablation and glacier retreat (e.g. see Figure 6). It isprojected that most of the glaciers of the Alps arelikely to disappear during the 21st century (Haeberliand Burn, 2002) (see more on vulnerability of the

    Alps in Appendix 1). The current reduction rate of1.3 % per annum for glacier areas in Switzerlandmay accelerate, and regions below 2 500 m will beice free by the end of the 21st century (Paul et al.,2004). Decrease in glacier areas is also expectedin the north of Europe. It is estimated that theStorglaciaren glacier (3 km), northern Sweden, maylose 30 % of its present mass and retreat by 300 m byabout 2050 (Schneeberger et al., 2001).

    Cryospheric changes might lead to changes in thefrequency and intensity of related natural hazards,

    such as snow avalanches (Martin et al., 2001), iceavalanches (Haeberli and Burn, 2002), and rock falls(Gruber et al., 2004).

    Furthermore, plant species in mountain andsub arctic regions are also likely to be affected.For example, vegetation in snow beds is highlyvulnerable to changes in temperature (Beniston,2003).

    Finally, winter tourism is likely to be adverselyaffected by rising temperature, due to its high levelof dependence on reliable snow conditions. It isestimated that if snow reliability limit shifts from

    (9) With the ATEAM project, vulnerability is defined as a function of impacts and adaptive capacity. The more adverse impacts aregion experiences, and the lower adaptive capacity a region possesses, the higher level of vulnerability is expected for a region.

    Figure 6 Glacier change Vernagtferner

    (Austria) in year 1985 (top) and2000 (bottom)

    Source: Weber; BAdW/kfG; 1985, 2000.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    21/81

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 21

    1 200 m to 1 800 m, operations at 56 % (comparedwith the present level of 15 %) of Swiss ski resorts will

    become unviable due to snow unreliability (Elsasserand Burki, 2002) (For more discussion on tourism, see

    Appendix 1).

    3.1.6 Water resources

    Europe has a very diverse hydrological situation.In the south, there is very significant seasonalvariation in river flow due to long and dry summers.To the west, there is less extreme variation, and incatchments underlain by absorbent aquifers riverflows remain reasonably constant throughout theyear. In the north and east, much precipitation fallsas snow. As a result, significant river flow occurs

    during the snow melting period in spring.There is also a wide variety of water uses, pressuresand management approaches. A succession of floodsand droughts in recent years has illustrated Europe'svulnerability to hydrological extremes. However,there are many other water-related pressures onEurope's environment. River ecosystems andwetlands are increasingly at risk. The quality ofEurope's rivers, lakes and groundwater is beingthreatened by the discharge of sewage and industrialwaste and by excessive application of pesticidesand fertilizers. Climate change and sea level rise

    add other potential pressures on European waterresources and management.

    Studies (Arnell, 2004) indicate a decrease in annualaverage runoff of 2030 % by the 2050s and of4050 % by the 2075s in south-eastern Europe. Here,annual rainfall and river discharge have already

    begun to decrease in the past few decades (Hulme,1999; UNEP/MAP/MED/POL, 2003). Climate changemay also change the timing and magnitude of bothhigh flows (Reynard et al., 2001)and low flows(Arnell, 1999). The occurrence of greatest flood

    risk could move from spring to winter (Ludwiget al., 2003), and be enhanced by the expansion ofimpermeable surfaces due to urbanization (de Rooet al., 2003). Model simulations indicate that lowflows in central European mountain watersheds may

    be reduced by up to 50 % (Eckhardt and Ulbrich,2003; Szolgay et al., 2003).

    Temperature rise and changing precipitationpatterns may also lead to a reduction ofgroundwater recharge (Eitzinger et al., 2003) andhence groundwater level. This would be mostevident in south eastern Europe. Higher watertemperature and low level of runoff, particularlyin the summer, could lead to deterioration in waterquality (Mimikou et al., 2000).

    Most studies on water supply and demandconclude that annual water availability wouldgenerally increase in northern and north-westernEurope and decrease in southern and south-eastern

    Europe (Arnell, 2004). Changes in water demandstrongly depend on economic growth and societaldevelopment. The projected change is a differenttrend for western and eastern Europe. In westernEurope under some scenarios, withdrawals wouldhave a decreasing tendency due to the saturationof demands and increasing efficiency of water use.In eastern Europe economic growth would lead toincreasing demands for water in both the domesticand industrial sectors (Alcamo et al., 2003). In theagricultural sector, irrigation water requirementswould increase mainly in southern and south

    eastern Europe (Dll, 2002). The overall balancebetween demand and supply under climate changesuggests that water stress may occur in the Iberianpeninsula (due to less supply), north-westernEurope (due to increasing demand) and easternEurope (due to changes in demand and supply) (seeFigure 7). Vulnerability of water resources in theMediterranean region is discussed in more detail inAppendix 1.

    3.1.7 Coastal zones

    Coastal zones in Europe contain large human

    populations and significant socioeconomic activities.They also support diverse ecosystems that provideimportant habitats and sources of food. One third ofthe European Union (EU) population is estimatedto live within 50 km of the coast. In Denmark, theproportion is as high as 100 % and 75 % in theUnited Kingdom and the Netherlands (Nichollsand Klein, 2003b). Significantly inhabited coastalareas in countries such as the Netherlands, England,Denmark, Germany and Italy are already belownormal high-tide levels, and more extensive areasare prone to flooding from storm surges. Hard

    defences to prevent such flooding and the loss ofthe seaward edge of coastal habitats, which aredue to existing rates of sea-level rise, are alreadycausing significant pressures on coasts in manylocations (e.g. Rigg et al., 1997). Deltaic areas oftenare particularly threatened because they naturallysubside and may have been sediment starved bydam construction (e.g. Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 1998).

    Climate change is an additional pressure and islikely to have significant impacts on coastal zones,particularly via sea level rise and changes in thefrequency and/or intensity of extreme weatherevents, such as storms and associated surges.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    22/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    22

    Direct impacts from sea level rise include inundationand displacement of wetlands, lowlands, coastalerosion, increased storm flooding and damage,increased salinity in estuaries and coastal aquifers,and rising coastal water tables and impededdrainage. Potential indirect impacts include changesin the distribution of bottom sediments, changes inthe functions of coastal ecosystems and impacts onhuman activities.

    It is estimated that 9 % of all European coastal

    zones (12 % for EU Member States), which can bedefined as a 10 km strip, lie below a 5 m elevationand are potentially vulnerable to sea level rise andrelated inundations. The most vulnerable areas arein the Netherlands and Belgium, where more than85 % of coast is under a 5 m elevation. Germanyand Romania have 50 % of their coasts below 5 m,Poland (30 %) and Denmark (22 %) (EEA, 2006,forthcoming) (see Figure 8). The most threatenedcoastal environments within Europe are deltas,low-lying coastal plains, islands and barrier islands,

    beaches, coastal wetlands, and estuaries (Beniston

    et al., 1998; Nicholls and Klein, 2004). Flooding dueto one metre rise in sea level would affect 13 millionpeople in five European countries (see Table 2).However, the number of people affected varies

    between these five countries. The highest potentialimpact would be on the Netherlands, whereasPoland and Estonia would feel the least impact.

    Under projected climate change and sea level rise,coastal ecosystems appear to be threatened, especiallythose in the Baltic, Mediterranean and Black

    Seas. These habitats could be severely reduced ordisappear during the 21st century because of the lowtidal range in these areas and the limited scope foronshore migration, which is due to the intense humanuse of the coastal zone (Nicholls and Klein, 2003a).

    Furthermore, it is likely that sea water temperatureincrease and sea level rise have already led tochanges in marine biodiversity, for example inthe Mediterranean and the Adriatic where theestablishment of thermophilic species may have

    been favoured (Bello et al., 2004).

    Figure 7 Water stress (10) in Europe in the 2070s

    Source: Henrichs and Alcamo, 2001.

    -10-20-30

    0

    0

    10

    10 20

    20

    30

    30

    40

    40

    50 60 70

    40

    40

    50

    50

    60

    0 500 1000 1500 Km

    Ratio of waterwithdrawals to

    availability in the

    2070s

    Water stress in %

    No data

    < 20 (Low)

    2040 (Medium)

    > 40 (Seve re)

    (10) Water stress is assessed here as a result of changes in both climatic and socio-economic conditions (e.g. increase in waterdemand for generating increased volume of power supply etc.). Calculated with the Global Climate Model HadCM3, using the IPCCSRES A2 scenario.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    23/81

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 23

    3.2 Vulnerability of socio-economicsectors

    3.2.1 Tourism

    With growing income and increasing leisuretime, the tourism industry in Europe is expectedto continue to grow. At present, predominanttourist flows are from north to south, which helpsto transfer capital. But under changing climate,if summer heat waves increase in frequency or if

    prolonged droughts result in water supply problemsand forest fires, existing tourist flows to theMediterranean might be reduced.

    Temperature rise is likely to change summerdestination preferences and outdoor activities innorthern Europe may become more attractive, whilesummer heat waves in the Mediterranean maylead to a seasonal shift in tourism from summer tospring and autumn (Parry, 2000). The Mediterraneancoast of France, for example, would be less affected

    by climate change than Spain or Greece, whereit is already warmer (Viner and Agnew, 1999).Mountainous regions could also become moreattractive due to a potentially more comfortable

    climate (Ceron and Dubois, 2004). The EuropeanAtlantic coast could be adversely affected by anincrease in winter rainfall. Health risks related to

    Figure 8 Coastal lowlands (elevation below 5 metres) in Europe (EEA member countries)

    Source: EEA, 2006, forthcoming.

    Country Coastalqqfrnckp"

    population

    Populationqqfgf"

    per year

    Capital valueloss

    Land loss Wetlandloss

    Adaptation costs

    # (k) %total

    # (k) % total USD(109)

    % GDP km2 % total km2 USD (109) % GDP

    Netherlands 10 000 67 3 600 24 186 69 2 165 6.7 642 12.3 5.5

    Germany 3 120 4 257 0.3 410 30 n.a. n.a. 2 400 30 2.2

    Poland 235 0.6 196 0.5 22.0 24 1 700 0.5 n.a. 4.8 + 0.4/yr 14.5 + 1.2/yr

    Estonia 47 3 n.a. n.a. 0.22 3 > 580 > 1.3 225 n.a. n.a.

    Ireland < 250 < 5 < 100 < 1.8 0.17 0.2 < 250 < 0.3 < 150 < 0.42/yr < 0.6/yr

    Source: Nicholls and Klein, 2003b.

    Table 2 Potential impacts of a 1-m sea level rise in selected European countries. Thisassumes the 1990 situation with no adaptation or adaptation costs to protect the

    human population

    Lowland incoastal countries

    Below 5 melevation

    7060504030201010 02030

    60

    50

    40

    0 10 403020

    50

    40

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    24/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    24

    high temperatures might increase. Water shortagesdue to extended droughts will also affect tourismflows, especially in southeast Mediterranean wherethe maximum demand coincides with the minimum

    availability of water resources (see for morediscussion on water shortage in the MediterraneanAppendix 1).

    The coastal zone is the primary tourist resource ofEurope, and associated tourist infrastructure is atrisk from sea level rise, including unique touristattractions such as the city of Venice (Perry, 2003).Tourist resources such as beaches, wetlands andestuaries are also at risk from sea level rise andtemperature increase.

    Rising temperature may also undermine thefinancial viability of the winter sports industry inEurope. Studies show that there is a statisticallysignificant trend in snow-cover reduction in the Alpsover recent years. It is suggested that a 3 C rise inmean temperature would lead to a rise of 300 m inthe winter snow line in the central Alps, and therewill not be continuous winter snow cover below analtitude of 1 500 m (see Appendix 1).

    3.2.2 Human health care

    Climate change is likely to affect human health,

    either directly related to the physiological effects ofheat and cold, or indirectly, for example, throughthe spread of vector-borne pathogens. An increasein these impacts has been observed over the recentdecades in Europe (e.g. summer heat waves in 2003alone claimed more than 20 000 excess deaths) (EEA2004b; Hajat et al., 2002; Koppe et al., 2004). Suchimpacts are projected to become more pronouncedunder a changing climate.

    Direct impacts on human health are mainlyassociated with extreme weather and climate events

    such as heat waves, cold spells and floods. Extreme

    hot or cold conditions can be detrimental to manyhuman body functions and exposure to them has animportant effect on daily mortality (Beniston andDiaz, 2004). Heat waves are projected to become

    more frequent and more intense, and hence thenumber of deaths might increase if no adaptationmeasures took place. The risk of excess winter deathseems to be widely distributed among the elderlypopulation in Britain. Cold spells are also a risk forwarmer regions when they occur in conjunctionwith ecological disturbances, catastrophes or societalconflicts, such as the war in Bosnia (WHO EuropeanCentre for Environment and Health, 2004). Fewercold spells under a warmer climate are likely toreduce the number of cold-related deaths.

    Increasing intensity of heavy rainfall is likely tomake extreme floods more frequent in some areasof Europe. The number of deaths can be particularlyhigh during sudden flash floods. Flood events causephysical (e.g. injuries) as well as mental (stressand depression) disorders. Water- and food-bornediseases could increase under a changing climate,particularly when water availability decreasesand high temperatures affect the quality of food.Furthermore, the seasonality of allergic disordersmay change due to a shift in the flowering period ofplants.

    The health impacts of the 2003 heat-wave inFrance the hardest hit country in Europe aresummarised in Box 2.

    The human health impacts of the heat-wave andthe cold-waves of 2003 and the flooding in 2002were summarised at a WHO symposium on humanhealth responses to extreme weather and climateevents (see Box 3).

    The projected rise in temperature is likely to increasethe geographical extent of ticks and the infestation

    of areas currently tick-free. These diseases are of

    Box 2 Health impacts of the 2003 heat-wave in France

    A heat-wave struck France in early August 2003. Daily minimum, maximum and average temperatures

    during the period of 4 to 12 August broke all historical records since 1873 for Paris. The heat-wave was

    associated with high levels of air pollution. There were 14 802 excess deaths between 1 and 20 August,

    compared with the average daily mortality for the same period in 2000 to 2002. This represents an increase

    of 60 % in mortality from all causes, and the worst health crisis since World War Two. The elderly (above

    75 years of age) experienced a 70 % increase in mortality. Excess deaths among women were 15~20 %

    higher than men and mortality rates were highest in nursing homes, where twice as many deaths occurred

    as expected.

    Source: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, 2004.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    25/81

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 25

    increasing importance, in many parts of Europe.An increase in cases of tick-borne diseases has

    been observed since the 1980s in the Baltic, centralEuropean countries, and Russia (Izmerovet al.,2004; Lindgren and Jaenson, 2004; Randolph, 2004).However, due to lack of knowledge on causalrelationships between climate change and increasesin ticks, the future projected rates of tick activity andinfection could not be estimated. Climate-inducedchanges in the potential distribution of malaria areprojected mainly in poor and vulnerable regions.In Europe localised outbreaks are expected in areas

    where the disease has been eradicated, but vectors(in particular, Plasmodium vivax) are still present(Reiter et al., 2004).

    The impacts of climate change on human healthare being exacerbated by reduced environmentalquality in ambient air and natural ecosystems,increases in aeroallergens and by other factorssuch as water- and food shortage and changes inagrochemical use.

    Finally, vulnerability of populations is highly

    dependent on current and future public health caresystems. Difficult economic conditions during thepast decade had serious implications for the deliveryof health care and the public health infrastructurein some countries in central and eastern Europeancountries. These countries are particularlyvulnerable to potential health impacts of climatechange.

    3.2.3 Energy

    Energy industries are the single most importantsource for greenhouse gas emissions in Europe.They contribute 29 % of total emissions in westernEurope, 42 % in the new accession countries andabout 20 % in Eastern European (EEA, 2003).

    Studies have demonstrated that energy demandis linked to climatic conditions (Sailor, 2001).Electricity usage and demand in Europe have beenrising steadily since the mid-1990s and this trendis expected to continue (EEA, 2004a). ThroughoutEurope, but particularly in southern Europe,energy demand, especially for air conditioning,is likely to increase in the warmer seasons(Giannakopoulos and Psiloglou, 2004; Majithia,2003; Valor et al., 2001). However, this increase will

    be partly compensated for by global temperatureincreases which will lead to a reduced demand for

    heating in the winter.

    Climate change may also alter the seasonal cycle inenergy demand, with lower demand in winter andhigher in summer. A specific temperature at whichenergy demand is at a minimum can be identified(for example, 22 C in Athens) (Giannakopoulosand Psiloglou, 2004). This temperature value isexpected to be lower in the north of Europe. Extremetemperature events have an impact on daily peakpower demands primarily through increased useof air conditioning. Thus more frequent hot spells

    projected under a warmer climate would increaseenergy demand. Such extra power demand couldcause transmission lines to sag, hence stressingthe effectiveness and efficiency of the distributionsystem (Colombo et al., 1999).

    Other climate variables also affect energy demand.In the United Kingdom energy demand is alsoaffected by heavy precipitation and by the coolingpower of the wind (Majithia, 2003). An increase of10 knots in wind speed in winter is associated with a4 % increase in demand. Moreover, cloud cover cangive a 45 % rise in demand (Majithia, 2003).

    Climate change induced water resource change isexpected to affect energy production in Europe,

    Box 3 Human health impacts in Europe of the heat-wave and of the cold-waves occurring in 2003

    and of the flooding in 2002

    During the severe heat-wave that affected much of western Europe in summer 2003, 75 year oldwomen and older were at highest risk.

    Winter mortality is still higher than summer mortality, while some of the winter time excess deaths

    relate to hypothermia, the greatest component is due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

    Flooding in 2002 caused serious re-organisation of health care services and required advice on hygiene

    and immunization by health authorities.

    Fatalities are often caused by entrapment in automobiles and behaviours that clearly disregard dangers.

    Other health effects included gastrointestinal infections due to contamination of food and water, and

    psychological effects.

    Source: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, 2004.

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    26/81Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    26

    directly through impacts on hydropower productionand indirectly through limits to water supply forcooling power plants. Hydropower makes up asignificant percentage (about 20 %) of the total

    installed capacity for electricity generation in Europe(European Commission, 2000). This capacity may

    be expanded especially in southern and easternEurope to provide electricity for economic growth(Alcamo et al., 2001). It is however estimated that,the gross hydropower potential (11) would decreasefrom the present level of 2500 TWh/a to 2400TWh/ain the 2070s, under the HadCM3 simulated climatescenarios. A decrease of 25 % or more is projected

    by the 2070s for hydropower potential of about6 000 European power plants in southern and south-eastern Europe (see Figure 9) (Lehner et al., 2001).

    3.3 Conclusions

    3.3.1 Key vulnerability issues

    The following conclusions can be drawn in relationto the key vulnerability issues for Europe's naturalenvironment and its society:

    Europe's natural environment and associatedservices, its production systems (agriculture,fisheries, forestry, terrestrial ecosystems) andother key socio-economic sectors (tourism,

    energy and human health care) are underpressure from environmental change and socio-economic development. Climate change is anadditional pressure and impacts of changingclimate on the environment and society areobserved across the region.

    Projected changes in climatic conditions(including extremes and sea level rise),compounded by other environmental changesand ongoing socio-economic development,are expected to have wide ranging impacts onnatural and human systems in Europe. Some of

    the impacts will be positive for certain regionsor sectors. Many impacts are, however, highlyadverse, and often fall onto systems and regionsalready under pressure from other environmentalchange and development processes.

    South-eastern and the Mediterranean are likelyto be Europe's most vulnerable regions. Thisis because of impacts of current and projectedclimate change on especially water resources,

    (11) Gross hydropower potential is defined as the annual energy that is potentially available when all natural runoff at all locationscould be harnessed down to sea level without any energy losses regardless whether there currently is a power station or not(Alcamo et al., 2001 and Lehner et al., 2001).

    2070s

    (ECHAM4)

    2070s

    (HadCM3)

    Decreases Small changes Increases

    50 % 25 % 10 % + 10 % + 25 % + 50 %

    Note: Two different climate models are used.

    Source: Lehner et al., 2001.

    Figure 9 Projected change in annual average river discharges for European river basins inthe 2070s compared to 2000

  • 7/28/2019 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe

    27/81

    Vulnerability in Europe sectoral perspectives

    Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe 27

    agriculture, tourism and public health care.Future trends in economic, social, institutional,and technological development in these regionsalso need to be taken into account.

    A summary of vulnerability by sector and bycountry is given in Appendix 2.

    3.3.2 Limitations of vulnerability assessments andfurther needs

    Many research programmes and projects have beenundertaken to assess the characteristics of climatechange, its potential impacts on natural and humansystems. Relatively recent research efforts have

    been initiated to assess the adaptive capacity of

    the natural environment and society, and identifyand evaluate adaptive responses to reduce thevulnerability of natural and human systems. Mostof the existing assessments have so far followedthe standard IPCC scenario-based approach(Carter et al., 1994; Parry and Carter, 1998). Withinthis framework, climate, non-climate, and socio-economic scenarios are developed and applied tosectoral impact models. Two issues are crucial to thisapproach, namely, the development and applicationof sectoral impact models and the development andapplication of scenarios.

    Sectoral impact models are often developed withina single disciplinary context (e.g. crop physiology,hydrology etc.), rarely considering the interactions

    between climate and other non-climate factorswithin the modelling unit. Although sectoralmodels bring with them a wealth of knowledge inspec