Analyzing Vulnerability of a Community to Fire Hazard: A Case study of Ward 72

Md. Sayeedul Islam, Debasis Roy Raza, Md. Saiful IslamBangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET)

Abstract

Fires cause the greatest loss of life and property in urban areas. Urban fires have devastating impact on communities. Unplanned urbanization has intensified the problem further. The number of fire incidents in Dhaka was 1,861 in 2003, 2,053 in 2004, and 2,279 in 2005 (The New Age, 2007). To mitigate such disasters at community level, community participation is important. To strengthen the resiliency of a community to natural and man-made hazards, before they become disasters, must first begin with a comprehensive risk and vulnerability assessment. Community vulnerability assessment tool (CVAT) is a useful method to assess vulnerability of a community to any hazard. In this study, the traditional community of ward 72 of Dhaka has been selected to conduct a Community vulnerability assessment. CVAT method has been applied here in five steps. At first, a hazard map was created by using six attributes namely accessibility, fire fighting scenario, transformer and power line, floor area ratio, building material type and location of risky fire sources in the study area. Each of them was assigned a value using Analytic Hierarchy Process based on experts’ opinions. Then the following vulnerability analyses were conducted namely social vulnerability, critical facilities vulnerability, economic vulnerability and environmental vulnerability. Going to accomplish these vulnerability analyses different field surveys were conducted. Secondary data was also collected from Dhaka City Corporation. Each of the vulnerability analysis includes certain specific steps which ultimately lead to a vulnerability map. Then by using ARCGIS, the data were processed and maps were prepared. After preparing the hazard map, it was overlaid with each of the maps like, maps of critical facilities, economic activities, etc. By using some parameters and attributes then it was evaluated that how much vulnerable the community was to fire in various aspects from every intersected map. Finally the overall vulnerability of the community was then assessed. After completing the assessment it was found that vulnerability of the community to fire hazard is low. It should be noted that the result can be different if many other attributes are taken into account which was not possible in this study for various shortcomings. However, this study will provide a baseline to prioritize mitigation measures and to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures over time in the community.

Keywords: Disaster; Hazard; Risk management; Vulnerability assessment; Critical facility.

INTRODUCTION and BACKGROUND

A fire hazard is any situation in which there is a greater than normal risk of harm to people or property due to fire. Bangladesh often faces a range of disaster events including flood, drought, landslides, fires and other man-made hazards. The physical vulnerability of the country’s population and infrastructure is compounded by economic vulnerability. All disasters, whether flood, earthquake, cyclone, drought or extensive fire, inevitably cause upheavals not only in the physical but also in the social and economic context where they occur. Although a fire disaster need not necessarily reach catastrophic proportions, it will present some of the characteristic aspects of a disaster because of the highly destructive action of fire and of the considerable number of victims.

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The rapid urban growth greatly increases the vulnerability of the country’s major population and economic centers. Increasing urbanization in the context of Dhaka presents major challenges and opportunities for the reduction of disaster impact in the future. While floods have the greatest impact to the country’s population as a whole, fires cause the greatest loss of life and property in the urban areas. Dense building concentrations, narrow roads, flammable building materials, aging water supply and electrical system, as well as the lack of resources to upgrade preparedness and response skills have resulted in a growing risk of large scale, multiple structure fires. Fire incidents are very common in Dhaka city, especially in relatively densely populated areas. The damage of property and loss of human life are intensified by different factors. The number of fire incidents in Dhaka was 1,861 in 2003, 2,053 in 2004, and 2,279 in 2005 (The New Age, February 10, 2007). Not only in Dhaka but also other major cities which have dense and unplanned urbanization suffer the wrath of fire from time to time. For instance, fires broke out at Rahattarpul and Badurtala in Chittagong on 10 th March, 2006. The fire, which originated from an electric short circuit, burnt assets worth about Tk.7 lakh, the fire officials said (The New Age, March 11, 2006).The fire officials established the extent of losses in fire incidents are as follows:

Table 1: Extent of losses due to fire hazards in different years

Time Period Extent of loss (crore)2002 Tk.112.212003 Tk.110.592004 Tk.213.782005 Tk.272.642006 Tk.238.76

Source: Bangladesh Fire Brigade and Civil Defense, 2005

From the table it is evident that the economic loss due to fire incidents is increasing gradually. A developing country like us cannot afford the huge amount of loss caused by fire accidents every year. Especially in most of the cases the victims are the poor people of the society. They can hardly bear the dire consequences of these tragic accidents. Babupura Basti in Nilkhet, Muktijoddha Basti in Mohammadpur, Bhasantek Basti, Boubazar Basti in Rayerbazar, Godown Basti in Banani, Shamimarar Basti in Demra, Jasimer Basti in Narayanganj and Kaderabad Housing Basti were among those which were fully and partly damaged by fire since January 2003.Moreover, fire incidents in shops, industrial and commercial buildings cause heavy toll of life and property. In the recent time, there were huge losses of property due to some big fire incidents in the garments factories. The major causes of those incidents were non- compliance of government's fire fighting and extinguishing law 2003. Besides, disasters in many family lives, such fire incidents also tarnished image of the country. Unplanned urbanization and rapid industrialization are the major causes of a huge number of fire related accidents inflicting colossal damage to lives and property in the country every year. According to a report on Role of Fire Services in Mitigating Losses in Fire Related Incidents, the major accidents occur in readymade garment (RMG) factories that have been flourishing in the country since early nineties. Over 350 garment workers have died and some 1,500 been injured in fire-related incidents since 1990 (The Daily Star, February 25, 2006).The fire incidents are on an increase due to lack of awareness, almost no feeling for following safety measures and practicing fire fighting drills, violation of building codes and non-compliance with the Fire Checking and Extinguishing Law, 2003, said the sources.

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Besides, the poor fire fighting equipments of the Fire Service and absence of infrastructure supports like street hydrants and construction of fire-lanes in busy cities are the reasons that hamper tackling such emergency situations.Whether a disaster is major or minor, of national or local proportion, it is the people at the community or village level who suffer its adverse effects. Under these circumstances, the effect of fire catastrophes on the people of a community will be significant and comprehensive. It affects a community in many ways. Whenever a fire outbreaks in an area, many people become homeless. The economic activity of the area is adversely affected and if the centers of their economic activity are gutted in fire, it becomes very difficult for the community to continue their normal life. Besides any harmful impact on critical facilities like educational centers, healthcare facilities, shops and markets, offices, etc. can make the situation direr. Ward 72 of Old Dhaka is one of the oldest areas of Dhaka city. People of both religions Hindus and Muslims have gathered here for centuries and have been living in peace and harmony. But this area is now a high density population area. It has some unique characteristics which can make it vulnerable to any kind of natural and man-made disaster. Inspite of some deadly threats, no research or project has been undertaken to assess the vulnerability of the community to examine the gravity of the situation or to fin out the ways of being prepared to face the disaster.

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Map 1. The study area, ward 72

METHODOLOGY

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This study entails a five-step process that has been described below.

Preparation of fire vulnerability map:

The fire vulnerability map was prepared by integrating six layers of information using ARC GIS, ARC VIEW software. Each layer has been prepared on the basis of a single attribute which was selected from the study area while the inventory data are collected. Selected Fire hazard attributes are

1) Accessibility 2) Fire fighting scenario3) Transformer and power line4) Floor area ratio(FAR)5) Building material type6) Existence of fire source

The data for attributes were collected from the GIS map produced by Dhaka City Corporation and field survey of 2007. To prepare the fire vulnerability map, individual maps were prepared for each attribute. The attributes are described below.

Accessibility: Accessibility is one of the important attributes for making fire vulnerability map. Because fire affected buildings are served by fire engines coming from fire Stations. If the road in front of the affected building is not accessible for fire engines, the buildings can not be served effectively by fire fighters and it become vulnerable to fire. To prepare the accessibility map, at first assumption was made on the basis of expert opinion. Assumption was – “Less then 10 feet wide road are not accessible for fire car.” Roads which are less then 10 feet were selected. Some roads which are grater then 10 feet but get access from less than 10 feet road, also were selected. Then the buildings which get access from those roads were marked as “Not accessible” and others as “Accessible” in the accessibility map.

Fire fighting scenario: To prepare the fire fighting scenario map, at first all the local fire stations around the study area were located and then based on the distance of fire station from the study area, the study area was divided into zones as serviceable or not serviceable by the fire stations. Capacity of fire fighting of the fire stations was considered on the basis of their equipments and manpower.

Transformer and power lines: To prepare this map, the poles bearing electric transformers and electricity wire were located by field survey. Then a certain buffer area of 4 meter was demarcated around each pole and the plots within this buffer area were located. Those buildings are marked as the vulnerable plots in this map.

Floor area ratio (FAR): To prepare the floor area ratio map, built-up area and building heights in stories of the each plot were calculated. Then built-up area was multiplied with the building height (stories) to get the total floor area. The floor area of all buildings of a mohalla was divided by the plot area of the mohalla. This resulted in floor area ratio. The equations of floor area ratio are given bellow:

Floor area = Build area × Building height (stories) Floor area ratio (mohalla wise) = (Total floor area of the mohalla ÷ Total plot area of the mohalla)

Finally, the different mohallas were classified on the basis of floor area ratio.

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Building material type: All the buildings were classified as pucca, semi-pucca and kutcha. Kutcha and semi pucca on the basis of building materials and presented in the map.

Availability of fire sources: In the study area, there are activities that can either ignite or intensify a fire. Plots with such activities were located and demarcated in the map. Next, these six maps were integrated to create the fire vulnerability map. Before that the above mentioned attributes were ranked according to importance using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). But the AHP process requires a pre-defined score or weight to input and that has been taken from 15 renowned fire experts of the country.

Fire vulnerability analysis

Critical Facilities Analysis

This analysis focuses on determining the vulnerabilities of key individual facilities, lifelines, or resources within the community.Primary steps that were followed in this analysis are:

1. To complete a critical facilities inventory and categorize the results2. To identify intersections of critical facilities with high risk areas3. To conduct a vulnerability assessment on highest risk critical facilities

Social vulnerability analysis:

In this study social vulnerability has been analyzed in two steps. 1. Identifying areas of special consideration.At first special consideration areas were identified by population, gender, age group of people and literacy rate. It was done by analyzing census data prepared by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistic (BBS, 2000). 2. identifying intersections of special consideration areas with high-risk areas.After that these areas were intersected with the location of highly vulnerable buildings.

Economic vulnerability analysis:

The purpose of this analysis was to identify economic vulnerability to fire hazard. To analyze this vulnerability three steps were taken. They are:

1. Economic sectors and its inventories were selected from the study area by land use survey and were located in the map.

2. The economic center maps were overlaid with the fire risk consideration areas analyzed its vulnerability.

3. General inventory of the economic center within the high vulnerable consideration area was prepared.

Environmental vulnerability analysis:

To accomplish environmental vulnerability two steps have been followed:1. Identification of secondary hazard risk consideration sites and key environmental resource sites. Secondary impacts occur when natural hazard events create new hazards such as toxic releases or hazardous spills.2. Intersection of secondary risk sites and fire risk consideration areas. This was done by overlaying the environmental sites with the hazard risk consideration areas. 

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THE FIRE VULNERABILITY MAP

The fire vulnerability map of the study area ward 72 was prepared by integrating five attribute maps together. These are accessibility, transformer and power line, floor area ratio, building material type and existence of risky fire source in the study area. Each attribute is expressed as a map and then all the attribute maps were integrated to make fire vulnerability maps.Before that the above mentioned attributes were ranked according to importance using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). But the AHP process requires a pre-defined score or weight to input and that has been taken from 15 renowned fire experts of the country. The process of obtaining the score is given below:Score for building = weight for accessibility × (1 for No access or 0 for Access) + Weight for transformer and power line× ( 0 for Not Vulnerable or 1 for Vulnerable for electricity pole or 2 for Vulnerable for Transformer) + Weight for floor area ratio× (0 for Very Low floor area ratio or 1 for Moderately Low floor area ratio……..) + Weight for building material type × (1 for Pucca or 2 for Semi-kutcha or 3 for Kutcha) + Weight for availability of fire source × (1 for Available of fire sources and 0 for No available of fire source)

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a multi-attribute modeling methodology. AHP is a systematic method for comparing a list of objectives or alternatives or attributes. Weight of the attribute of fire hazard calculation process using AHP is given below:

The five attributes are road accessibility (A1), transformer and electrical wire (A2), floor area ratio (A3), building material type (A4) and availability of fire source (A5). A normalized set of weights was established to be used when comparing alternatives using these attributes. A pair wise comparison matrix M was formed where the number in the ith row and jth column gives the relative importance of Ai as compared with Aj. 1-5 Scale was selected from the eight expert’s opinion. aij = 1 if the two objectives are equal in importance and aij = 2 if Ai is more important than Aj.Matrix M which was made by expert opinion is given in the following:

M=

To normalize the weights, the sums of each column were computed and then each column was divided by the corresponding sum. Thus N was used to denote normalization.

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N=

The next step was to compute the average values of each row and used these as the weights in the attribute Hierarchy.

W=

The final scores of different attributes are-

Table 2: Scores of the attributes by AHP

Accessibility 0.247

Transformer and power line 0.122

Floor Area Ratio (FAR) 0.141Building material type 0.135Availability of fire source 0.354

Hazard score for each building was calculated by the above equation using the derived weight. On the basis of this hazard score all the buildings were classified and it is shown in the Fire Vulnerability Map. The plots of the map were classified into five classes: low, moderately low, moderate, moderately high and high. It is unusual for the entire comparison matrix to be consistent. To determine whether or not a level of consistency is reasonable a quantifiable measure for comparison matrix M was developed. The Consistency Ratio (CR) is acceptable if it is less or equal to 0.1. As the calculated CR comes below 0.01, consistency of comparison matrix is acceptable.

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Map 2. fire vulnerability map

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Figure 2. Quantitative comparison of vulnerability of buildings

The map shows that most of the buildings are moderately vulnerable for fire. Number of high vulnerable buildings is significantly low. The most vulnerable area is Syed Awlad Hossain Road and Naba Ray Lane. The vulnerability score of buildings of the study area range from 0.41 to 0.94 out of 1. Even within these two mohallas there are some buildings which are highly vulnerable to fire which are denoted by dark brown color in Map 2.

FIRE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

Critical facilities vulnerability analysis

At first all the critical facilities in ward 72 were identified and a complete inventory of these facilities was prepared. Then critical facilities that are in and within close proximity to high risk areas were identified by overlying the critical facilities location over the map of fire vulnerable areas. From the survey the following Critical Facility categories have been found:

Educational institutions Religious centers Government organizations Other offices Healthcare facilities Bank Community facilities NGO offices Kutcha Bazaars Police stations

For preparing the inventory following information has been collected from the GIS map and field survey regarding the critical facilities-

Facility type Facility name Street address Fire district Holding no.

Finally the following map was prepared that represents which critical facilities are vulnerable to fire and which are not.

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Map 3. Critical facilities vulnerability map

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Key findings

The map shows that the critical facilities of Syed Awlad Hossain Road, Naba Roy Lane, Hori Prasanna Mitra Road, and Utshab Poddar Lane are more vulnerable than those of other mohallas. On the contrary, critical facilities of Johnson Road, Court House Street, and Dr. Hrishikesh Das Road are less vulnerable to fire hazard. From the study it is clear that there is no critical facility in the high risk area. On the contrary, most of the critical facilities (49%) are located within the low vulnerable area. A significant percentage of facilities (35%) are located within the moderately low vulnerable area. Again, only 4% of critical facilities were found to be located in the moderately high vulnerable area.

Figure 3. Critical facilities vulnerability to fire hazard

So it can be said that the critical facilities of the study area are not at high risk from fire. It has a significant impact on the later stages of disaster management. Service interruption can be reduced or eliminated during any fire disaster and many of these facilities will play a central role in disaster response and recovery.

Societal vulnerability analysis

Societal vulnerability of the study area was analyzed through special consideration areas which were identified by population density, gender, age group of people and literacy rate.

Population density

At first, Population density of every mohalla of the study area was calculated and then it was intersected with the fire vulnerability map. If the population density of a mohalla is high it would be more vulnerable to hazard. Besides, if the population density of a mohalla is high and number of vulnerable buildings is also higher in that mohalla, the societal vulnerability of the mohalla will be significant. For example, Map 4 represents that Radhika Mohan Bosak

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Lane has high population density and the mohalla also has some buildings that are highly and moderately highly vulnerably to fire hazards. Prasanna Poddar Lane and Syed Awlad Hossain Road have medium population density but also have buildings that are highly vulnerable to fire.

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Map 4. Intersection of population density and fire vulnerable plots

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Gender

Gender affects vulnerability. Women are more likely than men are to hold low-status jobs or jobs in the informal economy, which often disappear after a disaster strikes. Women are also more vulnerable to disasters because of their roles as mothers and caregivers: when disaster is about to strike, their ability to seek safety is restricted by their responsibilities to the very young and the very old, both of whom require help and supervision (Lisa et al, 2005).

Map 5. Intersection of women population and fire vulnerable plots

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The study shows that female population density is high (12 to 15%) and significant (9 to 12%) in Prasanna Poddar Lane and Naba Roy Lane respectively and there are some buildings in both of these areas that are highly vulnerable to fire. Female population is also dense in Utshab Poddar Lane but it is moderately vulnerable to fire. Radhika Mohan Bosak Lane has less female population and considerable number of vulnerable buildings.

Age group

Age group is another criterion for analyzing social vulnerability. Both young and old people may be unable to respond to disasters on their own (Clark et al., 1998). Older people also tend to be more reluctant to evacuate. In addition to the physical difficulties imposed by evacuation, older people tend to be distressed by the prospect of leaving their own homes and living in group quarters (Lisa et al, 2005). To prepare a map showing vulnerable age groups in different buildings, at first groups are classified. Only those age groups are then selected which are more vulnerable to fire. Selected age groups are “below 10 years” and “Above 60 years”. Then the population within the vulnerable age groups is distributed among the residential buildings in proportion to floor area. The buildings are next classified by the number of people from vulnerable age groups as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Number of vulnerable buildings according to age group

Number of people(Below 10 years and above 60 years) Number of vulnerable buildings

1-10 884

11-20 74

21-30 9

31-65 12

Total vulnerable buildings 979

Source: Population Census, 2000 and field survey, December 2007.

Map 6 shows the distribution of targeted age group of people in different vulnerable plots.

Literacy rate

Literacy makes the people more aware about disaster and thus affects disaster management to a great extent. But according to the report of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), literacy rate of almost all the mohallas of the study area is around 80%. So it will not impose much difference in the vulnerability assessment process. That is why literacy rate has not been considered for mapping.

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Map 6. Intersection of vulnerable age group and fire vulnerable plots

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Economic vulnerability Analysis

Four types of economic activities are distinctly dominant here. These are Jewelry shops, shops selling and making paper materials, chemical shops and traditional shakharis who work with articles of conch-shells like conch- bangles and the shola workers. Main business on this area is making and selling Jewelries. Generally jewelries are made of gold, silver, conch-shells. Different types of service related shops are also available. Considering the above discussion, different economic activities were classified as follows:

1. Gold and silver shops2. Chemical Shops3. Selling Articles of conch-shells, musical Instruments & sculpture4. Paper shops5. Services

Location of these economic activities was determined by land use survey. In fact, economic vulnerability depends on how many important economic activities are located in close proximity to high risk areas and that has been shown in Map 7.Table 4 represents bellow the number of vulnerable building, used for different economic activities.

Table 4. Number of vulnerable buildings used for economic activities

Economic sectorNo. of vulnerable

buildingPercentage

Selling and making articles of conch-shells, musical instruments &

sculpture14 5

Selling chemicals used in dying and tannery industry 14 5

Selling and making ornaments of gold and silver 153 53

Selling paper material and printing 17 6

Services 91 31

Total 289  100

Source: Field survey, December 2007

From the survey it was also revealed that18 gold and silver shops and 14 buildings providing various services are found in the highly vulnerable area. Chemical shops sell some flammable and corrosive textile chemicals. 4 buildings used as chemical markets are situated in the highly vulnerable area, which may be a threat for the community and also may cause loss of economy. So these economic activities need more treatment for fire disaster management.

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Map 7. Intersection of important economic activities and fire vulnerable plots

Environmental vulnerability analysis

Identifying secondary hazard risk consideration sites and key environmental resource sites.

In ward 72, there are certain secondary risk sites which can trigger further disastrous condition if fire strikes. There are some chemical shops and jewelry shops in the study area in highly vulnerable locations. These shops sell various types of dyes for textile mills. There are different types of dyes like Natural Dye, Acid Dye, Reactive Dye, Solvent Dye, Substantive Dye, Sulfur Dye and Vat Dye. Among these dyes, the chemical shops are the wholesaler of various types of Reactive and Vat Dyes. Some reactive dyes are recognized respiratory sensitizers. Breathing in respiratory sensitizers can cause occupational asthma. Certain Reactive, Vat and Disperse dyes are recognized skin sensitizers (HSE, 2007). If fire breaks out and these dyestuffs spill out, serious health hazard may occur. Moreover, some of these chemical shops sell some chemical agents like oxidizing agents, corrosive chemicals, etc. Fire hazards may arise from the use of flammable liquids which are easily ignited or oxidizing agents which may make an existing fire more intense by fuelling it with oxygen, for instance Hydrogen per Oxide (Class 5).Many of the jewelry shops make and design ornaments rather than only selling them. While making and designing the ornaments they use acids like Sulphuric Acid. Sulphuric acid is injurious to heath in many ways and is flammable and corrosive agent of class 8. These shops also use gas flames which can cause accident if comes in contact with the acid. However, the number of these types of shops is limited and the threat possessed by them is not so significant for the study area. That is why this type of shops is not shown in the map.

Intersections of secondary risk sites, and fire risk consideration areas

These types of secondary risk sites are overlaid onto the risk areas to determine the types of hazardous materials and location of potential releases to environment. Map 8 shows the location of the chemical shops. From Map 8 it is clear that two buildings containing chemical shops are located in highly vulnerable plots- one in Asok Jamdar Lane and the other is in Syed Awlad Hossain Lane. The other chemical shops are in moderately vulnerable areas of the study area.

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Map 8. Intersection of secondary hazard risk consideration sites and fire vulnerable plots

CONCLUSION

If we summarize the major findings of this study, the following table can be produced:

Table 5: Summarized result of the study Parameter Status

Large Fire incidents No

Number of fire vulnerable buildings Moderate

Social vulnerability low

Economic vulnerability Moderate

Critical facilities vulnerability Low

Environmental vulnerability Low

Considering the above status of different factors it can be concluded that the community of ward no. 72 is not so much vulnerable to fire. But this aggregate result is not an absolute decision. Because some of the findings from this study are subject to change if more attributes like entrance and exit of houses are considered. So different out come is also possible from this very method only if more attributes are considered. Although Community Vulnerability Assessment Tool (CVAT) has been applied in this small area of Dhaka city, it can be applied to any type of hazard in any location of the country, both micro and macro levels. Urban fire incidents have been determined to have a high likelihood of occurrence in our country especially during the dry season. Although fire hazard characterization information is available in the Fire Service and Civil Defense (FSCD), no further mentionable vulnerability or risk assessment has been performed for this hazard. As a result, fire hazard vulnerable area which is not assessed for this hazard may catch fire and causes lots of human death and economic loss. This can negatively affect our economy of the country.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We express our heartiest gratefulness and indebtness to Dr. K. M. Maniruzzaman, Professor,

Department of Urban and Regional Planning and the supervisor of this thesis for his valuable

guidance, direction and continuous encouragement at different stages of preparation of this

thesis. We consider it a rare fortune to work under him. We are especially thankful to Dr.

Gulsan Ara Parvin, Assistant Professor and Md. Shakil Bin Kashem, Lecturer, Department of

Urban and Regional Planning for their heartiest help and support.

Finally, we would like to convey our gratitude and thanks to the officials of Bangladesh Fire

Brigade and Civil Defense who helped us by providing information.

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