vulcain energy partners · the advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public,...

22
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS HOW WE NAVIGATE THE COVID 19 CRISIS WITH OUR THREE AMC WEEKLY VIEWS AND RESULTS 19/09/2020 [email protected] +447810810169

Upload: others

Post on 27-Sep-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR

VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS

HOW WE NAVIGATE THE COVID 19 CRISISWITH OUR THREE AMC

WEEKLY VIEWS AND RESULTS

19/09/2020 [email protected]

+447810810169

Page 2: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The
Page 3: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

IMPORTANT WARNING Trading Energy products carries an above average financial risk. The following statement may affect your rights

DISCLAIMER:

This document has been prepared by Renaud Saleur, managing partner of VULCAIN ENERGY LLP and of ANACONDA INVEST SA and officer of KENDAR,(FCA regulated) thereafter designatedas the Advisor.

The Advisor is under contract with investment managers ( the Managers) and gives nonbinding advice to the Managers for the exclusive management of actively managed certificates, managedaccounts or any other regulated collective investment schemes, thereafter, designated as the “Funds”. A structured product is therefore not a Fund for the clarity of this disclaimer. The Advisor doesnot give advice nor participate in the origination of any other financial products than the Funds and, in particular, the Advisor is never involved nor gives advice for the origination of structuredproducts made from a basket of equities that may be mentioned in this letter and/or are part of the Funds. Consequently, the Advisor declines all responsibilities for any product created on thebasis of the information contained in this document and/or for any product originated by taking any securities out of the context of the Funds.

The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products.

The equity or credit strategies developed by the Advisor are for the long term but may vary in the short term depending on the volatility of the market. Every positions within the Funds areconstructed to follow a complex strategy and may be bought as a hedge and not for their own merits. Therefore, the Advisor strongly warns against taking any security or group of securities out ofthe scope of the Funds to originate any other product than the Funds.

The Advisor warns that any reference to the Advisor and/ or to this letter by any other party than the Managers in their sole and exclusive role to promote and manage the Funds and exclusively inthis context shall be considered by the regulator as a Misrepresentation or Misleading information which constitutes a breach of the Code of Conduct of the Financial Conduct Authority, sanctionedby fines and penalties mentioned on the Financial Conduct Authority Website.

Consequently and pursuant to this warning, no partners nor directors of the Advisor can be held responsible nor liable for any investment made on the basis of the information contained in thisletter or /and in the Funds. The partners and directors of the Advisor may at any time buy or sell securities in energy for their own accounts or for other clients than the Manager strictly followingthe Advisor Compliance guidelines fully reviewed and approved by the Financial Conduct Authority.

This is not to be distributed to the US nor to any US person, nor to any nonqualified investors.

Page 4: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

WEEKLY MACRO AND GEOPOLITICAL VIEW >OIL and GREEN

It was risk off yesterday with COVID 19 inviting itself back at the table, The brent price fell 4% together with equities .Lybiaseems to be coming back as Gen Khalifa Haftar has decided to waive the lockdown on Sirte harbour. According to Goldman Sachs, production could come back to 500,000 barrels a day within 6 months ( It was 1.2 million before) . Oilinventories are projected to go down again this week . However, diesel inventories are high and it would take refineries to lower their utilisation rate to 60% to reduce them. We believe a strong recovery of the oil market has to be led by diesel prices going up. Whereas airlines are still in chaos ( We benefited on the Short side with VULCAIN GREEN LS ) with AIR France operating at 30% of capacity, LUFHTANSA at 25% and further lock down measures in the «air» , more and more Jet fuel is mixed and used as a fuel for ships. The shipping industry is not doing too badly with multiple upgrades for Container ships ( MAERSK) and LNG day rates recovering. We inititiated a buy of FLEX LNG today after the ABG upgrade for both AMCs .

In our «Green World» things are moving fast. We increased our short position in ITM POWER to 1% and GENERALMOTORS to 2% . We believe the NIKOLA saga will evolve very badly and affect all the overpriced Hydrogen stocks . Wemade a lot of money yesterday on our NEL, ITM and NIKOLA short . We made 40% on NIKOLA and NEL since we shortedthem last week and closed 20% of our position yesterday whilst we increased ITM and GM.

Today, the Norvegian government is announcing a big plan for carbon capture that should benefit AKER CARBON CAPTURE . It will also benefit AKER SOLUTIONS as the engineer behind. IBERDROLA has also declared today itsambitions in Green Hydrogen .

We had a good day yesterday losing only 10 basis point in a market losing 400 bp. We were well protected by our 48%short position vs our 92% long position. We are 44% net long at the moment for a 138% gross exposure

Page 5: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The
Page 6: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

Shale Oil spirallingto Death

The Baker Hughes figures last Friday showed a stabilisation o in horizontal rigs. These rigs are mostly used for shale oiland 400 of them are needed to maintain the production flat yoy. We are at the lowest ever level of 214 which predictsthat shale production next year will be down a good 40% from 8 million barrels last January to less than 4 . This willcreate an imbalance in the oil supply/demand equationwhich should be beneficial for Offshore conventional oil. Wetalked to LUNDIN on Friday which confirmed a break evenprice of $ 15 per barrel in Johan Sverup

This is why we are bullish on oil price for the next threeyears as the marginal barrel will come from this type of producers ( Equinor,Lundin,Petrobras..) which are disciplinedand not from the stupid indebted shale operators.

Even if oil price goes up, which is our base case scenario, 100,000 oil related jobs have already been lost in Texas and this will be a big impediment to a restart of the Shale Oilindustry. There is going to be more bankruptcies in 2020/21 than from 2014/2019, mostly in shale oil.

Page 7: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

END OF DRIVING SEASON

Last week end showed the end of the driving season. After weeks of inventory decline , we had a small net decrease this week with crude down 4.4 million barrels but products up 3.1 million barrels . It is true that refinery utilization was up from 71.2% to 75.2 % which may explain the increase rather than a less busy Memorial Day week end. The oil market focusses again on COVID 19 with ASTRA ZENECA putting its vaccine on pause and the number of new cases on an accelerating trend.

Oil production is up from 10 to 10.9 million barrels a day . This was mostly because of the GUM closure/opening courtesy of tornadoes . We can see from this week’s figures that probably, shale is continuing to go down . The Saudis had the lowest export to the US last week because of the storms but imports went up 500,000 barrels because of Canada .

OPEC started to pump more with SAUDI ARABIA adding 400,000 barrels a day last month. The resurgence of Covid, the end of the driving season and the increase of OPEC production has been counterbalanced by the market focusing on supply with the OPEC meeting.

Our view is still the same : Supply will lag demand next year as shale continues to spiral downwards.

Page 8: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

Will Floating Storage Increase?

The contango has now increased to $3 on six months . $1 of contango justifies paying $10,000 of day rates for oil traders to rent a tanker and store oil for 6 months.

At $ 3 , They could pay up to $30,000 a day. VLCC spot are on $9000 to $18,000 dependingon the route . We are watching the contango to increase tankers. We have so far EURONAV , the best in class and increased the position to 5% last week.

Shipping Rates SPOTVLCC: MEG $9'968 (+$3'029), WAFR $18'868 (+$4'483).

SUEZ: $5'428 (+$1'617).

AFRA: $4'452 (+$252).

LR2: $16'227 (-$700).

VLGC: $44'973 (+$822).

Page 9: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

OPEC PRODUCTION AUGUST

Page 10: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The
Page 11: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

Road Transportation and PetChem are 70% of Oil Use : This is why another Lockdown would be disastrous

Page 12: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

TWO INTERESTING STORIES : AKER SOLUTIONS AND SIF TRANSITIONS FROM OIL DRILLING PLATFORM SERVICING TO RENEWABLES

Page 13: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

OUR THREE PRODUCTS

Page 14: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

INVESTMENT BRIEF

The Funds are advised by Renaud Saleur. Renaud Saleur is a Centrale Supelec graduate with a master in sciences in computer engineering. He graduated in 1985 from HarvardBusiness School with a master in business administration. He also holds a master in economics from La Sorbonne. He has successfully managed long only balanced funds for FidelityInternational from 1986 to 1998, hedge funds for Soros Global Research LLP and Moore Capital. He has run his own multi strategy fund since 2003 together with three long onlyenergy equity and bond funds since 2018. With a consistent alpha creation and top quartile ranking. He has won many prices from Lipper, Micropal and WM. His credit fund at Fidelitywas ranked number 2 over ten years by Micropal.

Renaud Saleur has developed a strong expertise in oil and renewable energy since 1987.He started his career at FIDELITY BOSTON as one of the first analyst in the Wastemanagement and Waste to Energy field. He has access to a large network of Oil executives and Specialised Oil brokers. Renaud Saleur proprietary research on the energy sectorhas been chosen by Capital Link, a worldwide organisation used by the Energy industry for their Forums, to be included on their Website.

Renaud Saleur has become a member of the investment committee ( Private Equity) of Dubai based TAHA VENTURES ( Apollonia Capital ) .TAHA invests into vast renewablesprojects in the Middle East and South East Asia .

The funds are offered with a 1.5% management fee payable quarterly in arrears and a 15% success fee with high water mark. The two equity AMC are listed on Vienna StockExchange. For the HY bond fund, the success fee will be payable in equity and income shares of the fund so that the advisor and investors interests are always aligned. The advisorwill have a lock up period for its shares.

The fund may hold significant cash balances and have a macro overlay to preserve the capital of the fund. It is however anticipated that it will follow a buy and hold strategy.

The fund will be totally transparent to investors who will receive a weekly letter and a monthly report of holdings.

Track record available upon request.

Page 15: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

THE PERFORMANCE

15

Page 16: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

AMC : VULCAIN SILEX GLOBAL ENERGY (ISIN 0385836090)

Pre-crisis AMC Post-crisis AMC The year 2020 was anyway supposed to be rough for shale oil as

most of the 6000 producers have consistently produced negative freecash flow since 2014 and cumulated huge pile of debt, 120 billion $ ofwhich become due between 2020 and 2021.

The Drillers and Service companies were supposed to enjoy bettertimes with the increase of FIDs and of day rates. Refining would havealso benefited from the switch towards higher margin fuels generatedby the new Marine regulation IMO 2020. We had thus positioned theAMC to get the best returns from this scenario. COVID 19 hasdecided otherwise …

We reacted very quickly repositioning the AMC more defensively and focusing on the Surviving Champions post crisis.

We have concentrated the AMC on fewer names (32) and chosen the companies with the best balance sheets, the potential torebound and to be later the price setters in an environment where, we believe, a lot of capacity shall be destroyed . We emphasizedthe low cost Oil majors with excellent balance sheets and low cash break even ( oil below $ 20) This includes the Nordics( AKERBP)TOTAL and the RUSSIANS (GAZPROM, LUKOIL and ROSNEFT) . We also added the Chinese as their domestic market is restarting albeit at a low pace (PETROCHINA and SINOPEC) and the Brazilian Petrobras. We cannot envisage a re start of productionwithout oil services companies. Although it is in this segment that the carnage will be maximum, the survivors will benefit from a lowcapacity/Higher pricing environment. Three drillers ( MAERSK, ODFJELL and TRANSOCEAN) make it in our list but also oil servicestransitioning to renewables (SUBSEA 7, FUGRO and AKER SOLUTIONS).

Storage and transportation have helped the AMC a lot during the Super Contango phase but the contango is now low ( 1.5$ vs $10 inApril) . We have reduced tankers and storage waiting for OPEC+ to pump more and the Contango to widen.

We also drastically increased our exposure to renewable electricity from precious metals ( Rhodium, Platinum, Palladium ..) to Solarplants and Hydrogen producers. This sector has a strong momentum even after COVID as people will be more and more aware ofGlobal threats to mankind. We have thus been able to outperform ytd all indices by over 1000 basis points.

2020 has been so far an awful year with oil going down over 60% as a consequence of the Covid 19 disease putting most economies at a standstill and the failed negotiation of OPEC + earlier this year leading tothe Pump as You will policy of early April.

The lock down took a huge toll on road transportation taking up to 25 million barrels a day off demand in April. Road transportation is now back to normal (90%) but Air Traffic is still very low ( 7% of Oil demand)Everything being equal Oil demand should have a U shaped recovery but Oil supply an L or Hockey shape recovery leading to , in our view, a fast recovery of oil prices next year ( above $ 60) .

The OPEC + agreement led to a doubling of oil prices in May but OPEC + now plans to increase production by 1.2 million barrels a day to over 9 million. At the same time, some economies are weakening again asCovid 19 is coming back . Whereas we are very positive on oil medium term, We could see some weakness short term with the end of the driving season, possible new lock downs, more OPEC production and theChina/US trade situation. Shale companies and especially the independents should be the most affected with at least 3 million boe a day of lost production by year end. The marginal barrel shall now beconventional and pricing more stable going forward.

Page 17: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

OutperformanceContinues

Global Energy was up 2.1% last week in a flattish market(0.4% MSCI ENERGY) . The oil price strongly recovered as the market started to focus more on supply thandemand. Our biggest winners came from the Renewablepart of the AMC with AKER WIND up 42%, AKER CARBON up 28% and Hydrogen company Bloom up 28% as well on a Morgan Stanley upgrade .

We increased the tanker part of the AMC addingFRONTLINE (2%) to EURONAV (5%) as the Contango starts to build ( Now over $3 for six months) . We participatedto the PARETO OIL conference having 10 1/1 . We wereparticularly bullish on FPSO ( we own SBM OFFSHORE) and on AKER SOLUTIONS. AKSO has been dumped afterthe spin off of AKER WIND and AKER CC but AKER SOLUTIONS stays as the engineer behind these projectsand will have 30% in renewables by 2025 and 66% by 2030 . The stock trades at 10% of sales and 7 times Cash Flow.

Page 18: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

AMC : VULCAIN GREEN ENERGY LONG SHORT ( CH0552952233)

THE AMC Post-crisis AMC The world is becoming Green Aware and Climate change with

terrorism, Cyberattacks and now Viruses is one of the great threat ofthe future. Legislation is taking place to address this from the EUGREEN DEAL to IMO2020, IMO 2030… for shipping

The cost of renewables and in particular solar is ( Ex battery storage)becoming very competitive to gas and coal. Greener energiesincluding gas shall produce over 60% of the World electricity by 2050.

$ 13 Trillion at least will be invested into de decarbonisation of theelectricity production by 2040 and this will happen a lot in South EastAsia where Coal is still the main fuel to produce electricity. Growth ofsolar and wind but also LNG will lead the transition.

We reacted very quickly repositioning the AMC more defensively and focusing on the Surviving Champions post crisis

We have concentrated the AMC on Hydrogen, Offshore Wind and Solar. We invest through the whole value chain from metals(Silver,Copper) blade engineers and solar cells manufacturers to utilities and offshore services engineers (Fugro,Subsea7, AkerSolutions) . The AMC is 150% invested (Limit 200%) and 76% net long. We are short shale oil and airlines/casinos/hotels.

We think that electricity demand will recover alongside oil demand as both have a 0.6 correlation to GDP growth. Forward price ofelectricity and carbon credits are already pricing a recovery not in the prices of stocks yet. The higher the recovery of fossil fuels thebetter for renewables from a cost comparison point of view.

The Electrical Vehicle proposal requires huge investments in the grid and in batteries. Copper, Lithium, Rhodium, Palladium andSilver,Platinum to be in big demand. We invest in the corresponding mines.

By 2040, LNG should be the fuel of choice for China. The Covid 19 crisis may have delayed FIDs but the trend is intact. Furthermore,the destruction of capacity in shale oil whose by product was cheap natural gas will be a positive factor for next year ‘s increase ofgas prices. All LNG tech engineers like GTT will benefit as well as LNG tankers.

Solar and Offshore wind should be the winners in the low cost green energy: We invest along all the supply chain from components (Soitec, Jinko, Vestas, Gurit) operators and designers (Scatec,Voltalia) to services companies (Fugro, Aker Solutions). Hydrogen willgrow fast ( Bloom Energy, HL Acquisition)

2020 has been so far an hectic year with the Covid 19 sell off followed by a massive tech rally fueled by the massive Central banks injections. Most recovery plans have a large Green budget allocation that shouldboost the growth of the sector for the next decade. Green Hydrogen may go faster than anticipated.

The April/May spot figures for electricity have shown a sharp drop from an index of 60 in December to 12-22 in April depending on the countries. This together with a fall in demand (electricity demand varies as 0.6times GDP) has weighed naturally on utilities stock prices but they seem to have found a floor. Most Wind or solar utilities have long term PPA and thus did not suffer from the drop in prices. Furthermore, the use ofGreen electricity was favoured during the crisis which helped the volume. Consequently, they have recovered nicely on the Stock Market.

The level of investment in green energy should not be affected for too long. China and Taiwan have resumed their orders in wind power(Vestas) whilst the Oil majors capex level for renewables has not beenaffected so far. If anything the Covid 19 may increase the awareness towards global warming as one of the main threats to humanity: A clear warning boosting capex in the sector through COVID 19 Recovery plans. Most Oil majors and Offshore oil services companies are increasing their exposure to Green.

Gross exposure: 150% Net exposure: 76%

Page 19: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

VULCAIN GREEN L/S

We continued our recovery last week now at 119.46 . Wehave reduced the number of stocks to below 50 includingthe short positions. We made money on our shorts ( British Airways down over 13% , NEL down from 21 to 18 , Stoxx600 travel which suffered on new lock down fears and on our NASDAQ short) . On the long side, AKER CC and AKER WIND were up 28 and 47% and BLOOM was up over 28% on a Morgan Stanley upgrade .

We spoke to a number of companies : ACCIONA,IBERDROLA, EQUINOR, SUBSEA 7 , SIF, AKER SOLUTIONS , SBM , SOLARPACK and GRENERGY . We alsohad a 1/1 with SIEMENS GAMESA . We are reinforced in the idea that Wind Offhore both Fixed and Floating willenjoy a strong growth by 2040 ( 12% per year) . The market is for 19,000 new Wind towers by then, meaningthoushands of monopoles ( SIF), jackets (Subsea ), Turbines, installation vessels ( OHT,SCORPIO,BONHEUR) ,Foundations ( Fugro, Aker Solutions, ACKERMANS,BOSKALIS…) .

The stock of the week in performance is AKER WIND and in new entry : AKER SOLUTION

Page 20: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

AMC : VULCAIN HIGH OCTANE HIGH YIELD FUND ( CH0553491777) The high yield energy market has been a casualty of both COVID 19 and OPEC policy to «pump as you will». The Barclays High Yield Energy index has recovered thanks to the massive injection of liquidities by the

FED .

We believe there are still some strong high yield opportunities within the oil services sector.

Our scenario for oil is a L shaped recovery of supply and U or V for demand. High Yield energy bonds tend to trade like the oil commodity.

We believe oil services companies that we emerge stronger from the crisis after the bankruptcy of many peers will regain pricing power triggering a better generation of free cash flow leading to credit enhancement .

THE AMC High Octane high yield AMC We invested roughly 70% of the portfolio

We are waiting for better opportunities to deploy the rest of the capitalas oil price may be toppish now with the China/US tensions, theresurgence of Covid and the possible increase of production in Augustby OPEC. Our portfolio is well diversified with tankers ( Scorpio,American Tankers) for 12%, LNG for 8%, E@P for 17%, largeInternational Oil for 25% and Drilling rigs for 6%.

Post our meeting with FUGRO, we are adding a 4% position in the2024 yielding 25% to maturity in Euros and are studying specificsituations like Eramet, Vallourec .

Page 21: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

High Octane HY Fund

The NAV was 102.4 on Wednesday . Weoutperformed the Barclays Energy High Yield index which starts to weaken after a period of stability.

Our investors are receiving directly the newsletter co produced by Generation Alfa and Anaconda . The main point of the week was the result of the debt restructuring undergone by TRANSOCEAN. Although it was a success and should benefitTRANSOCEAN, it is still viewed with a fair amount of scepticism by the market. Our view is thatTRANSOCEAN has escaped Chapter 11 and that weshould benefit with a two years view. In the meantime, we have a high double digit YTM.

DNO has found a way to reduce significantly itscarbon imprint which should be viewed nicely by investors.

We have invested in the FPSO sector withBLUEWATER and BWO bonds . The FPSO is a segment with long term contracts (15Y) and IRR of 15%

Page 22: VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS · The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products. The

DISCLAIMER This presentation is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, interests in a Fund. No offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of a definitive private placement memorandum of a Fund (a "Memorandum") which will

contain additional information about such Fund, including disclosures relating to risk factors and conflicts of interest. Recipients of this document who intend to apply for interests in the Funds are reminded that any such application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained inthe relevant Memorandum which may be different from the information and opinions contained in this document. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumThis document is confidential, is intended only for the person towhom it has been provided and under no circumstance may a copy be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient without the prior written consent of Anaconda Invest S.A. (the "Investment Advisor"). Notwithstanding anything to the contraryherein, each recipient of this presentation may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of Cobra Special Situations Fund (each, a "Fund" and together, the "Funds") and (ii) any of its transactions, and all materials of any kind (includingopinions or other tax analyses) relating to such tax treatment and tax structure, it being understood that "tax treatment" and "tax structure" do not include the name or the identifying information of a Fund or a transaction. The distribution of the information contained herein in certain jurisdictionsmay be restricted, and, accordingly, it is the responsibility of any prospective investor to satisfy itself as to compliance with relevant laws and regulations.

The information contained herein is preliminary, is provided for discussion purposes only, is only a summary of key information, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the Funds, including important conflicts disclosures and risk factors associated with aninvestment in the Funds, and is subject to change without notice.

Unless otherwise indicated, the information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date on the front cover. No representation or warranty is made as to its continued accuracy after such date.

This presentation is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, interests in a Fund. No offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of a definitive private placement memorandum of a Fund (a "Memorandum") which willcontain additional information about such Fund, including disclosures relating to risk factors and conflicts of interest. Recipients of this document who intend to apply for interests in the Funds are reminded that any such application will be made s DISCLAIMER

This document is confidential, is intended only for the person to whom it has been provided and under no circumstance may a copy be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient without the prior written consent of Anaconda Invest S.A. (the"Investment Advisor"). Notwithstanding anything to the contrary herein, each recipient of this presentation may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of Cobra Special Situations Fund (each, a "Fund" and together, the "Funds") and (ii) anyof its transactions, and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) relating to such tax treatment and tax structure, it being understood that "tax treatment" and "tax structure" do not include the name or the identifying information of a Fund or a transaction. The distribution ofthe information contained herein in certain jurisdictions may be restricted, and, accordingly, it is the responsibility of any prospective investor to satisfy itself as to compliance with relevant laws and regulations.

The information contained herein is preliminary, is provided for discussion purposes only, is only a summary of key information, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the Funds, including important conflicts disclosures and risk factors associated with aninvestment in the Funds, and is subject to change without notice.

Unless otherwise indicated, the information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date on the front cover. No representation or warranty is made as to its continued accuracy after such date.

This presentation is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, interests in a Fund. No offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of a definitive private placement memorandum of a Fund (a "Memorandum") which willcontain additional information about such Fund, including disclosures relating to risk factors and conflicts of interest. Recipients of this document who intend to apply for interests in the Funds are reminded that any such application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained inthe relevant Memorandum which may be different from the information and opinions contained in this document. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances of any specific person who may receive it and is qualified inits entirety by the Memorandum of the applicable Fund. In the event of any discrepancies between the information contained herein and the Memorandum, the Memorandum will control. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or taxadvice or investment recommendations. You should make an independent investigation of the investment described herein, including consulting your tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.

An investment in the Funds may not be suitable for all investors. An investment in the Funds will be suitable only for certain financially sophisticated investors who meet certain eligibilty requirements, have no need for immediate liquidity in their investment, and can bear the risk of an investment inthe Funds for an extended period of time.

Investing in financial markets involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that aFund's investment program, including, without limitation, its investment objectives, diversification strategies, or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Investment losses may occur from time to time. Nothing herein is intended to implythat the Funds' investment methodologies may be considered "conservative", "safe", "risk free" or "risk averse". Economic, market and other conditions could also cause a Fund to alter its investment objectives, guidelines, and restrictions. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE NOR AGUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE MADE THAT PROFITS WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES WILL NOT BE INCURRED.

lely on the basis of the information contained in the relevant Memorandum which may be different from the information and opinions contained in this document. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances of anyspecific person who may receive it and is qualified in its entirety by the Memorandum of the applicable Fund. In the event of any discrepancies between the information contained herein and the Memorandum, the Memorandum will control. The information herein is not intended to provide, andshould not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should make an independent investigation of the investment described herein, including consulting your tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.

An investment in the Funds may not be suitable for all investors. An investment in the Funds will be suitable only for certain financially sophisticated investors who meet certain eligibilty requirements, have no need for immediate liquidity in their investment, and can bear the risk of an investment inthe Funds for an extended period of time.

Investing in financial markets involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that aFund's investment program, including, without limitation, its investment objectives, diversification strategies, or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Investment losses may occur from time to time. Nothing herein is intended to implythat the Funds' investment methodologies may be considered "conservative", "safe", "risk free" or "risk averse". Economic, market and other conditions could also cause a Fund to alter its investment objectives, guidelines, and restrictions. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE NOR AGUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE MADE THAT PROFITS WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES WILL NOT BE INCURRED.

stances of any specific person who may receive it and is qualified in its entirety by the Memorandum of the applicable Fund. In the event of any discrepancies between the information contained herein and the Memorandum, the Memorandum will control. The information herein is not intended toprovide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should make an independent investigation of the investment described herein, including consulting your tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.

An investment in the Funds may not be suitable for all investors. An investment in the Funds will be suitable only for certain financially sophisticated investors who meet certain eligibilty requirements, have no need for immediate liquidity in their investment, and can bear the risk of an investment inthe Funds for an extended period of time.

Investing in financial markets involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that aFund's investment program, including, without limitation, its investment objectives, diversification strategies, or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Investment losses may occur from time to time. Nothing herein is intended to implythat the Funds' investment methodologies may be considered "conservative", "safe", "risk free" or "risk averse". Economic, market and other conditions could also cause a Fund to alter its investment objectives, guidelines, and restrictions. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE NOR AGUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE MADE THAT PROFITS WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES WILL NOT BE INCURRED.