VOTING and ELECTIONS VOTING and ELECTIONS (Cont’d) July 14(Cont’d) July 14thth, 2003, 2003

Voting and ElectionsVoting and Elections

• Campaigns and ElectionsCampaigns and Elections– primariesprimaries

– general electionsgeneral elections

• Campaign financingCampaign financing

• public opinion pollingpublic opinion polling

• Voting TurnoutVoting Turnout

• Initiatives/ReferendumsInitiatives/Referendums

Campaign FinancingCampaign Financing

• $1 billion dollars in TV ads -- 2002$1 billion dollars in TV ads -- 2002• basic rulesbasic rules

– FECFEC– public funding – matching fundspublic funding – matching funds– spending limitsspending limits– contribution limitscontribution limits– disclosure requirementsdisclosure requirements

• the problem of “soft money”the problem of “soft money”– contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)

Campaign FinancingCampaign Financing

• the rules collapse...the rules collapse...– spending limits enforced by federal matching spending limits enforced by federal matching

fundingfunding• candidates can ignore limits if they do not accept candidates can ignore limits if they do not accept

matching fundingmatching funding

– the problem of “soft money”the problem of “soft money”• parties use soft money for party-building and get out the parties use soft money for party-building and get out the

vote campaignsvote campaigns

• can be used to get around election spending limits (e.g. can be used to get around election spending limits (e.g. are not included in limits)are not included in limits)

Campaign Financing – Recent Campaign Financing – Recent Attempts at RegulationAttempts at Regulation

• Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002 (McCain-Feingold)(McCain-Feingold)– bans the use of soft money by federal partiesbans the use of soft money by federal parties

– limits the ability of independent groups to limits the ability of independent groups to run issue ads in the final weeks of a run issue ads in the final weeks of a campaigncampaign

Campaign Financing – Recent Campaign Financing – Recent Attempts at RegulationAttempts at Regulation

• McCain-Feingold challengeMcCain-Feingold challenge– federal court rulingfederal court ruling

• ban on raising of soft money struck down ban on raising of soft money struck down – upholds ban on party advertisements that “...appear to urge a upholds ban on party advertisements that “...appear to urge a

federal candidate’s election or defeat – even if the ads not say federal candidate’s election or defeat – even if the ads not say so explicitly.”so explicitly.”

• ban on third party issue ads struck downban on third party issue ads struck down– third parties would not be allowed to run ads urging a third parties would not be allowed to run ads urging a

candidates election or defeat candidates election or defeat at any timeat any time

• federal court decision stayed pending Supreme federal court decision stayed pending Supreme Court decision (schedule for hearing Court decision (schedule for hearing September 8September 8thth))

Campaign Finance -- ConclusionCampaign Finance -- Conclusion

• regulation of campaign finance made regulation of campaign finance made difficult because campaign contributions are difficult because campaign contributions are seen to contribute to mass participation as seen to contribute to mass participation as well as a means of mass participationwell as a means of mass participation– parties to use soft money to “get out the vote”parties to use soft money to “get out the vote”– contributing to campaign is seen as a contributing to campaign is seen as a

mechanism of political participationmechanism of political participation– running ads in campaign is seen to constitute running ads in campaign is seen to constitute

free speechfree speech

Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls

• centrality of pollingcentrality of polling

• misuse of pollsmisuse of polls– nation-wide pollsnation-wide polls

• nation-wide polls do not translate directly into nation-wide polls do not translate directly into votes in the electoral collegevotes in the electoral college

– misreading pollsmisreading polls

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout

• explaining voter turnoutexplaining voter turnout– low voter turnoutlow voter turnout

– declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

• registration proceduresregistration procedures• requires registrationrequires registration• motor voter lawsmotor voter laws• why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue?

• low voter turnoutlow voter turnout• voter fatiguevoter fatigue• voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices

Elections in MassachusettsElections in Massachusetts

• PresidentPresident• US House of US House of

RepresentativesRepresentatives• US SenateUS Senate• state governorstate governor• state representativestate representative• state senatestate senate• state attorney generalstate attorney general• state auditorstate auditor

• state treasurerstate treasurer• secretary of statesecretary of state• county commissionercounty commissioner• sheriffsheriff• clerks of courtsclerks of courts• mayormayor• city councillorscity councillors• school committee school committee

membersmembers

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices

– primary electionsprimary elections

– referendums and initiativesreferendums and initiatives

• actual participationactual participation– primaries (5%-20%)primaries (5%-20%)

– general election (45%-55%)general election (45%-55%)

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

• strategic votingstrategic voting– vote in elections that are close racevote in elections that are close race– vote in elections with candidates that voter has vote in elections with candidates that voter has

strong feelings for/againststrong feelings for/against– vote in elections with issues of relevance to votervote in elections with issues of relevance to voter

• the “Seinfeld” election in 2002?the “Seinfeld” election in 2002?– vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in

playplay

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

• low voter turnoutlow voter turnout• voter fatiguevoter fatigue• voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction• voter disaffectionvoter disaffection

Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – Voter DisaffectionVoter Disaffection

• do elections matter?do elections matter?– incumbencyincumbency

• elections are referedums on incumbentselections are referedums on incumbents• incumbent has to do something to loseincumbent has to do something to lose• challenger finds it hard to get money, hard to challenger finds it hard to get money, hard to

break cyclebreak cycle

– primariesprimaries

– winner-take-allwinner-take-all

– economyeconomy

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

• decliningdeclining voter turnout voter turnout– demographicsdemographics

– fewer differences between partyfewer differences between party• electoral strategyelectoral strategy• less interest in who winsless interest in who wins

– less effort at voter mobilization by partiesless effort at voter mobilization by parties

Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – What are They?What are They?

• What are They?What are They?– initiative – proposal to put some issue to a initiative – proposal to put some issue to a

referendumreferendum• requires 3%-15% of voters to signrequires 3%-15% of voters to sign

– propositionproposition• referendum question put directly on the ballotreferendum question put directly on the ballot

Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – How and When Are They Used?How and When Are They Used?• allowed by 24 statesallowed by 24 states

– half of all initiatives take place in five stateshalf of all initiatives take place in five states• Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado,

ArizonaArizona

• success ratesuccess rate• 50% once they are on the ballot50% once they are on the ballot

• CaliforniaCalifornia• 8-12 propositions on EACH ballot8-12 propositions on EACH ballot• some propositions of VERY considerable importancesome propositions of VERY considerable importance

Main Point!Main Point!

• the American political system is geared the American political system is geared towards providing considerable towards providing considerable opportunities for mass political opportunities for mass political participationparticipation

• actual levels of mass participation may actual levels of mass participation may not reach the “ideal”; however, consensus not reach the “ideal”; however, consensus that the “ideal” is high mass participationthat the “ideal” is high mass participation