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VOTERS LISTS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY:PREVENTING VOTER FRAUD

OR ENABLING VOTER SUPPRESSION?

Professor Daniel A. SmithDepartment of Political Science

University of FloridaEmail: [email protected]

Web: www.electionsmith.comTwitter: @ElectionSmith

Election Innovations Conference GONG

Zagreb, CroatiaMarch 19-20, 2013

Draws on research co-authored with Prof. Michael C. Herron, Dartmouth College

VOTER LISTS IN THE UNITED STATES• Limited Role of Federal Government

• No national ID card & no system of national voter registration

• National Voter Registration Act of 1993 ("Motor Voter“)

• The ‘state’ does not have an affirmative duty to register voters

• Decentralized Election Administration

• Limited federal regulatory oversight (Elections Clause, Art. I, §4, cl. 1)

• Maintenance of Voters Lists by State & Local Election Administrators

• Considerable Discretion and Variation in Voter Registration & List Maintenance

• 14 states require registration 30 days prior to an election

• 9 states allow Election Day registration

• 10 states allow online voter registration

PROFESSOR DANIEL A. SMITH (TWITTER: @ELECTIONSMITH) PREVENTING VOTER FRAUD OR ENABLING VOTER SUPPRESSION?

ELECTION 2012:PREVENTING VOTER FRAUD OR ENABLING VOTER SUPPRESSION?


FLORIDA: PREVENTING VOTER FRAUD OR ENABLING VOTER SUPPRESSION?

• House Bill 1355 (2011)• Restrictions on “Third Party Voter Registration Organizations” (“3PVROs)

• Limits on Days and Hours of Early Voting

• Prohibition on Election Day Inter-County Change of Address

• Immediate effect in 62/67 counties

• US Department of Justice refused to grant Section 5 VRA “preclearance”

• Multiple Legal Challenges

• Felon Disenfranchisement • Purge of “Potential Noncitizens”• Voter Challenges by “True the Vote”


PREVENTING VOTER FRAUD OR ENABLING VOTER SUPPRESSION?HB 1355’s Restrictions on “3PVROs”

• Individuals & Organizations registering voters required to:• Register with the state of Florida• Sign oath warning of prison time and fines• 48 hours to turn in a completed voter registration form

• Teachers warned for violating voter registration requirements• League of Women Voters & others sued in federal district court to

block enforcement

EFFECTS OF HB 1355 ON VOTER REGISTRATION: DAILY NEW VOTER REGISTRATIONS, 2007 VS. 2011



PREVENTING VOTER FRAUD OR ENABLING VOTER SUPPRESSION?Felon Disenfranchisement

• In 2004, Gov. Jeb Bush (R) ended 5-year waiting period for ex-felons to apply to have voting rights restored

• In 2007, Gov. Charlie Crist (R) allowed nonviolent ex-felons to have voting rights automatically restored

• > 150,000 had voting rights restored before 2008 election• In 2011, Gov. Rick Scott (R) reinstated that non-serious ex-felons

must wait 5 years before being considered to restore rights• Under Scott, less than 300 ex-felons have had rights restored

• Florida, the “Felon Disenfranchisement Capital of the Nation” 2012Total Voter Eligible Population Disenfranchised (%) 1,541,602 (10.4%)Voter Eligible African Americans Disenfranchised (%) 520,521 (23.3%)


PREVENTING VOTER FRAUD OR ENABLING VOTER SUPPRESSION?Purging “Potential Noncitizens” from Voters List• Florida Department of State “Program to Purge Alleged Non-Citizens”

• “Matched” voter file with Drivers License data• Initially identified ~180,000 “potential non-citizens”• Names of 2,625 “potential non-citizens” sent to SOEs to purge

• High % of False-Positives. Local SOEs halt purge• Law Suit Filed to Halt Voter Purge

• Arcia v. Detzner (NVRA: federal law prohibits states from systematically purging voters 90 days prior to an election)

• High Number of Racial and Ethnic Minorities on Purge List


Florida Department of State eventually claims 198 “Potential Non-Citizens” to be purged35 Blacks (17.7%); 80 Hispanics (40.4%); 41 Whites (20.7%); 32 Other (16.2%)


SUPPRESSING THE VOTE IN FLORIDAVoter Challenges by “True the Vote”

• Tea Party Affiliated “True the Vote” Challenges of Registered Voters• Private citizens challenging the status of registered voters

• Claims voters are convicted felons, non-citizens, non-residents• A challenged voter must vote a “provisional” ballot at the polls

• 73 Voters Targeted by Tampa Vote Fair in Hillsborough County • 40% African American (only 16% registered voters)

• Privatization of Voter Suppression

CONCLUSION

• Decentralized election administration has led not only to greater discretion and variation in voter registration & list maintenance

• It has also led to differential election outcomes across the states and possible discrimination of racial and ethnic minorities

• Voting Rights in Florida were Curtailed in 2012• Led to a drop in early voting by racial & ethnic minorities• Led to higher rejection rate of absentee & provisional ballots

cast by racial & ethnic minorities


ABSENTEE & PROVISIONAL BALLOT REJECTION RATES AMONG RACIAL/ETHNIC MINORITIES & PARTIES, 2012


American Indian

Asian

BlackHispanic

White

Other

Multi-Racial

Unknown

OverallRep

Dem

NPA

0.0

05.0

1.0

15.0

2.0

25.0

3P

erce

nt A

bsen

tee

Bal

lots

Rej

ecte

d

0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4Percent Provisional Ballots Rejected

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