volumetric estimation - seoul national university
TRANSCRIPT
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Volumetric Estimation
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Introduction
- Volumetric estimation:
(1) Quantify how much oil and gas exists
(2) Change over time
- Two main methods
(1) Deterministic
(2) Probabilistic
Volumetric Estimation
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Deterministic MethodsVolumetric Estimation
Well logs, cores, seismicWell logs, cores, seismic
Average the dataAverage the data
Estimate the field-wide propertiesEstimate the field-wide properties
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Deterministic Methods
- Formulae to calculate volumes
Volumetric Estimation
[stb]B1S
GNGRVSTOIIP
oo ⋅⋅⋅⋅= φ
[stb]B1S
GNGRVGIIP
gg ⋅⋅⋅⋅= φ
]factor[stbRecovery HCIIPrecovery Ultimate ⋅=
[stb]Production Cumulative-URReserves =
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The area-depth
- Assume a constant gross thickness (H)
- Known data: structure map, gross thickness
- Measure the respective area
- Plot the area-depth graph
Volumetric Estimation
Deterministic Methods
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Volumetric Estimation
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The area-thickness
- Assumption of constant thickness no longer apply
- Known data: structure map, net sand map
- Combines the two maps to find a net oil sand map
- Plot the area-thickness graph
Volumetric Estimation
Deterministic Methods
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Volumetric Estimation
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Volumetric Estimation
Probabilistic Methods
StatisticsStatistics Geological modelGeological model
Field dataField data
+
Predict trends of the field-wide propertiesPredict trends of the field-wide properties
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PDF & Expectation curves
Volumetric Estimation
Probabilistic Methods
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PDF & Expectation curves
Volumetric Estimation
Probabilistic Methods
Well defined discoveryPoorly defined discoveryLow risk, low rewardHigh risk, high reward
1
2
3
4
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- Expectation curve for a discovery
• Low estimate = 85% cumulative probability• Medium estimate = 50% cumulative probability• High estimate = 15% cumulative probability• Expectation Value = (High+Medium+Low)/3
Volumetric Estimation
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- POS (Probability of Success) in exploration step
(1) A source rock where HC were generated
(2) A structure in which the HC might be trapped
(3) A seal on top of the structure to stop the HC migrating further
(4) A migration path for the HC from source rock to trap
(5) The correct sequence of events in time
Volumetric Estimation
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Volumetric Estimation
PDF & Expectation curves
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- The Monte Carlo Method
Volumetric Estimation
Generating expectation curves
[stb] RFB1S
GNthicknessarea UR
oo ⋅⋅⋅⋅⋅⋅= φ
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[stb] RFB1S
GNthicknessarea UR
oo ⋅⋅⋅⋅⋅⋅= φ
- Parametric method
Volumetric Estimation
Generating expectation curves
mean : ,bac μμ•μ=μ
)K1()K1()K1( 2b
2a
2c +•+=+
variation oft coefficien ,μσ
=K
...
Lognormal distribution with calculating K,μ,σLognormal distribution with calculating K,μ,σ
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- Parametric method: (1+Ki
2) will be greater than 1.0; the higher the value, the more the variable contributes to the uncertainty in the results
Volumetric Estimation
Generating expectation curves
: must be cared to reduce the uncertainty in the results
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[stb] RFB1S
GNthicknessarea UR
oo ⋅⋅⋅⋅⋅⋅= φ
Volumetric Estimation
- Three points method
Generating expectation curves
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Field Appraisal
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- Cost effectiveness
Appraisal has meaning if D2-A > D1
Role of appraisalField Appraisal
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- Parameters for estimation of STOIIP, GIIP, and UR
(1) Consider the factors(2) Rank the factors(3) Consider the uncertainty
of factors
Sources of uncertaintyField Appraisal
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- Main tool:Drilling wells and shooting 2D, 3D seismic surveys
- Others(1) An interference test between two wells(2) A well drilled in the flank of a field(3) A well drilled with a long enough horizontal section (4) A production test on a well(5) Deepening a well(6) Coring a well
Appraisal toolsField Appraisal
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- Impact of appraisal
% uncertainty = (H-L)/2M * 100%- Well A is oil-bearing or dry(1) Expectation curve may shift(2) Uncertainty range is reduced
Reduction of uncertaintyField Appraisal
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- NPV calculation
- Without appraisal$(-40+6+40)/3=+$2
- With appraisal$(0+6+66)/3=+$24
Cost-benefit calculationField Appraisal
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
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- Reduction of pressure Increase of volume
- Compressibility,
- Underground withdrawal of fluid
dPdV
V1c −=
[ ] dPVcVcVcdV wwggoo ⋅++=
The driving force for productionReservoir Dynamic Behavior
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The driving force for productionReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- Driving force (1) primary recovery(2) secondary recovery
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- Material balance equation
The driving force for productionReservoir Dynamic Behavior
produced fluid volumeproduced fluid volume
compressibilitycompressibility reservoir pressuresreservoir pressures
Relationship
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Reservoir Driving MechanismsReservoir Dynamic Behavior
With a large underlying aquiferSaturated or undersaturated oilWater driveSaturated oil with a gas capGas cap driveUndersaturated oil (no gas cap)Solution gas drive
Initial conditionDrive mechanism
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- No initial gas cap or active aquifer- Oil is produced: expansion of oil, connate water and any compaction drive
- Pressure drops rapidly as production takes place, until pb
- Material balance equationPcBNBN eoiop Δ⋅⋅⋅=
Solution gas driveReservoir Dynamic Behavior
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( ) 100(% ) ( )
water production stbwater cutoil plus water production stb
= ×
Solution gas driveReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- Three phases during oil production(1) build up period(2) plateau period(3) decline period
- Recovery factor is in the range 5- 30%
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Solution gas driveReservoir Dynamic Behavior
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Gas cap driveReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- Initial existence of gas cap- Gas expansion gives drive energy for production- Well is installed as far away from the gas cap as possible- Compared to solution gas drive, gas cap drive shows a much slower decline
- Recovery factor is in the rage of 20-60%
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Gas cap driveReservoir Dynamic Behavior
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Water driveReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- Occurs when the underlying aquifer is large- Water must be able to flow into the oil column- Difficult to plan the reservoir development by a uncertainty of aquifer behavior
- Using the response of reservoir pressure, fluid contact movement and MBE, we can see the reaction of aquifer
- Recovery factor is in the range 30-70%
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Water driveReservoir Dynamic Behavior
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Gas reservoirs
- Produced by expansion of the gas contained in the reservoir- Must ensure a long sustainable plateau to attain a good sales price for the gas
- Recovery factor depends on how low the abandonment pressure can be reduced
- Recovery factor is in the range 50-80%
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Differences between oil and gas fieldReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- The economics of transportation gas- The market for gas- Product specifications- The efficiency of turning gas into energy
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Gas sales profiles; influence of contractsReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- A guaranteed minimum quantity of gas for as long a duration as possible
- Peak in production when required
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Gas sales profiles; influence of contractsReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- Daily contact quantity (DCQ)- Swing factor- Take or pay agreement- Penalty clause
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- One of major difference in fluid flow for gas field compared to oil field is mobility difference
- In a gas reservoir underlain by an aquifer, the gas ishighly mobile to compared to water and flow readily tothe producers
- Producer are typically positioned at the crest of thereservoir
kmobilityμ
=
Subsurface developmentReservoir Dynamic Behavior
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Subsurface developmentReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- As the gas is produced, the pressure in the reservoirdrops, and the aquifer responds to this by expansion andmoving into the gas column.
- Pressure response to production(1) primary drive mechanism is the expansion of the gas(2) RF is linked to the drop in reservoir pressure in an
almost linear manner
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Subsurface developmentReservoir Dynamic Behavior
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Surface development for gas fieldsReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- The amounts of processing required in the field dependson the composition of the gas and the temperature andpressure to which the gas will be exposed duringtransportation.
- For dry gas, the produced fluid are often exported withvery little processing
- Wet gas may be dried of the heavier hydrocarbons bydropping the temperature and pressure through a Joule-Thompson expansion valve.
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Surface development for gas fieldsReservoir Dynamic Behavior
- Gas containing water vapor may be dried by passing thegas through a molecular sieve
- Gas reservoirs may also be used for storage of gas
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Fluid displacement in the reservoir- Oil is left behind due to by-passing- RF= Macroscopic sweep efficiency X
Microscopic displacement efficiency
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Fluid displacement in the reservoir- Darcy’s law- Oil reservoir: 100md (good), 10md (poor)- Gas reservoir: 1md (reasonable: lower viscosity than oil)- Relative permeability
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- Mobility ratio ( M )
- If M > 1, viscous fingering occurs
rw
w
ro
o
k
kμ
μ
=
Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Fluid displacement in the reservoir
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Fluid displacement in the reservoir
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Reservoir simulation
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Estimating the recovery factor
- Ultimate recovery = HCIIP x RF- Reserves = UR – cumulative production- Main technique for estimating the RF(1) Field analogues(2) Analytical models ( displacement calculations, MBE)(3) Reservoir simulation
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Estimating the production profiles- Production profile is the only source of revenue for most projects, and making a production forecast is of key importance for economic analysis of a proposal
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Enhanced oil recovery
- Thermal technique: reduce the viscosity of heavy crude- Chemical technique: polymer flooding / surfactant flooding- Miscible processes
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Reservoir Dynamic Behavior
Enhanced oil recovery
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Well Dynamic Behavior
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- The drilling expenditure: 20~40% of the total capex- Estimate the number of wells by considering(1) The type of development
(e.g. gas cap drive, water injection, natural depletion)(2) The production / injection potential of individual wells
Number of production wells Plateau production rate [stb/d]Assumed well initial [stb/d]
=
Well Dynamic Behavior
The number of development wells
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- Pressure drawdown
- Productivity index PI
- For semi – steady state,DD
QPIP
=D
-
DD wfP P P-
D = -
3141.2 {ln }4
DD
eo
w
P khQ rB Sr
m
D=
- +
g
Well Dynamic Behavior
Fluid flow near the wellbore
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- Damage skin, geometric skin, turbulent skin
Well Dynamic Behavior
Fluid flow near the wellbore
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- Coning: occurs in the vertical plane, when OWC lies directly below the producing well
- Cusping: occurs in the horizontal plane, when OWC doesn’t lie directly beneath the producing well
Well Dynamic Behavior
Fluid flow near the wellbore
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Fluid flow near the wellbore
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- Advantage(1) Increased exposure to the reservoir giving higher
productivity (PI)(2) Ability to connect laterally discontinuous features
(e.g. fractures, fault blocks)(3) Changing the geometry of drainage
(e.g. being parallel to fluid contacts)
Well Dynamic Behavior
Horizontal wells
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- Productivity improvement factor (PIF)
Well Dynamic Behavior
Horizontal wells
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Horizontal wells
- Effective horizontal well length
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Horizontal wells
- Ability to connect laterally discontinuous features
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Changing the geometry of drainage
Minimising the effect of coning or cusping
- Particularly strong advantage in thin oil columns (less than 40m thick)
Well Dynamic Behavior
Horizontal wells
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Horizontal wells
- Cresting: the distortion of the fluid interface near the horizontal well
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- Production testing(1) Per month(2) Information: liquid flow rate, water cut, gas production rate
- Bottom hole pressure testing(1) Determine the reservoir properties (e.g. permeability, skin)(2) SBHP (static bottom hole pressure survey)(3) FBHP (flowing bottom hole pressure survey)
Well Dynamic Behavior
Production testing & pwf testing
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Production testing & Pwf testing
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Production testing & Pwf testing
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Production testing & Pwf testing
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Tubing performance
- Determine the size(1) Measure
pwf (bottom hole pressure), pth(tubing head pressure),psep(separator pressure)
(2) Plot IPR curve & TPC
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Tubing performance
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- To provide a safe conduit for fluid flow from thereservoir to the flowline
Well Dynamic Behavior
Well completion
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Well completion
- Many variations exist(gravel pack completion, dual string completion)
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Well completion
- Horizontal wells
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- Add energy to the produced fluids, either to accelerate orto enable production
- Performed in the well- Common in the North Sea- Later in a field’s life
Well Dynamic Behavior
Artificial lift
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Artificial lift- Types of artificial lift(1) Beam Pump (BP)(2) Progressive Cavity Pump (PC)(3) Electric Submersible Pump (ESP)(4) Hydraulic Reciprocating Pump (HP)(5) Hydraulic Jet Pump (JET)
: mixing a fluids of high kinetic energy with a oil(6) Continuous Flow Gas Lift (GL)(7) Intermittent Gas Lift (IGL)
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Well Dynamic Behavior
Artificial lift- Determine an effective type of artificial lift by capabilities,hydraulic efficiencies, and constraints
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Surface Facilities
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Surface Facilities
Oil and Gas Processing
Process design
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Surface Facilities
- Description of wellhead fluids: quality & quantity of fluidsproduced at the wellhead are determined by(1) Hydrocarbon composition(2) Reservoir character(3) Field development scheme
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Surface Facilities
- Hydrocarbon properties which influences process design(1) PVT characteristics(2) Composition(3) Emulsion behavior(4) Viscosity and density
How volumes & rates will change over the life of the wellproduction profiles → estimate wellhead T,P
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Surface Facilities
- Product specification
(1) Oil : true vapor pressure , base sediment and water content,temperature, salinity, hydrogen sulphide content
(2) Gas : water & HC dew point, HC composition, contaminants content, heating value
(3) Water : oil and solids content
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Surface Facilities
- The process model : factors which must be considered
(1) Product yield(2) Inter-stage P & T(3) Compression power required(4) Cooling & heating requirements(5) Flowrates for equipment sizes(6) Implications of changing production profile
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Surface Facilities
- Process flow schemes
- Use of process flow schemes(1) Preparing preliminary equipment lists(2) Supporting early cost estimates(3) Basic risk analysis
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Surface Facilities
- Describing hydrocarbon composition
HC composition
Volume fraction Weight fraction
Calculate yields of oil & gasReservoir oil sample
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Surface Facilities
- Separation
To determine how much of each component goes into thegas or liquid phase, K must be known.
Process design
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Surface Facilities
- Separation design
- Demister(1) Impingement demister(2) Centrifugal demister
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Surface Facilities
- Separation types
(1) Main functionKnockout vessels / Demister separators
(2) OrientationHorizontal separator Vertical separator
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Surface Facilities
- Dehydration and water treatment(1) Produced water must be separated from oil .(2) Oil contained in separated water must be removed .(3) Method : settling & skimming tank
- Dehydration
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Surface Facilities
-De-oiling
(1) Skimming tank vs. Gravity separator(2) Oil interceptor : used both offshore & onshore
plate interceptor
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Surface Facilities
Upstream gas processing
- Components which cause pipeline corrosion or blockage :water vapor , heavy HC , CO2 , H2S
- Associated gas : flared or re-injected- Pressure reduction : be made across a choke before primary
O/G separator
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Surface Facilities
- Gas dehydration
Methods of dehydration : (1) Cooling(2) Absorption(3) Adsorption
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Surface Facilities
- Heavy hydrocarbon removal(1) High wellhead P over long period
JT throttling / turbo-expander(2) High P is not available : refrigeration
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Surface Facilities
- Contaminant removal
CO2, H2S
- Pressure elevation (gas compression)
(1) Reciprocating compressors
(2) Centrifugal compressors
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Surface Facilities
Terminology of natural gas :
Downstream gas processing
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Surface Facilities
- Contaminant removal
- Natural gas liquid recovery : When gases rich in C2H6, C3H8,C4H10 & there is a local market, recover those components.
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Surface Facilities
FacilitiesProduction support systems
- Water injection : principle factors studied in an analysis are(1) Dissolved solids(2) Suspended solids(3) Suspended oil(4) Bacteria(5) Dissolved gases
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Surface Facilities
- Gas injection
(1) Supplement recovery by maintaining reservoir P(2) Dispose gas
- Artificial lift(1) Gas lift(2) Beam pumping(3) Downhole pumping
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Surface Facilities
- Wellsites
Allow access for future operations & maintenance activity
Land based production facilities
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Surface Facilities
- Gathering stations
On a land sites, tank type separation equipment is better
than vessel type
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Surface Facilities
- Evacuation and storage
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Surface Facilities
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Surface Facilities
- Offshore platforms(1) Steel jacket platforms(2) Gravity based platforms(3) Tension leg platforms(4) Minimum facility systems
Offshore production facilities
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Surface Facilities
- Electro-hydraulic system
- Monopod system(1) Cost effective(2) Limiting factor : water depth
Control systems
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Surface Facilities
- Offshore evacuation systems
- Offshore loading(1) Single Buoy Mooring
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Surface Facilities
(2) Spar type storage terminal (3) Tanker storage & export