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OECD Papers

Volume 4, No. 1

Special Issue on Climate Change

Linking Climate Change Responses with Development Planning: Some Case Studies

Contents

307. Development and Climate Change Project: Concept Paper on Scope and Criteria for Case Study Selection

308. Analysing the Nexus of Sustainable Development and Climate Change: An Overview

309. Development and Climate Change: Exploring Linkages between Natural Resource Management and Climate Adaptation Strategies

310. Development and Climate Change in Nepal: Focus on Water Resources and Hydropower

311. Development and Climate Change in Bangladesh: Focus on Coastal Flooding and the Sundarbans

312. Development and Climate Change in Fiji: Focus on Coastal Mangroves

313. Development and Climate Change in Tanzania: Focus on Mount Kilimanjaro

Development and Climate Change Project:

Concept Paper on Scope and Criteria for Case Study Selection

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Unclassified COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2002)1/FINAL

Organisation de Coopération et de Développement EconomiquesOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 14-Aug-2002___________________________________________________________________________________________

English - Or. EnglishENVIRONMENT DIRECTORATEDEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION DIRECTORATE

DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECT:CONCEPT PAPER ON SCOPE AND CRITERIA FOR CASE STUDY SELECTION

JT00130362

Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origineComplete document available on OLIS in its original format

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Copyright OECD, 2002

Applications for permission to reporduce or translate all of part of this material should be addressed to theHead of Publications Service, OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France.


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FOREWORD

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, anactivity being jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and theWorking Party on Development Co-operation and Environment (WPENV). The overall objective of theproject is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economicdevelopment planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme.Insights from the work are therefore expected to have implications for the development assistancecommunity in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.

This document, written by Shardul Agrawala and Martin Berg, outlines the analytical frameworkthat was used to establish case studies for the project. It is therefore an interim product that is intended toguide early thinking on the work. The products that eventually emerge from the process may ultimatelydiffer in both scope and content from the orientations described herein.

In addition to delegates to the above-mentioned Working Parties, the authors would like to thankJan Corfee-Morlot, Tom Jones, Georg Caspary, and Remy Paris of the OECD Secretariat for theircomments on earlier drafts.

The paper does not necessarily represent the views of either the OECD or its Member countries.It is published under the responsibility of the Secretary General.

Further inquiries about either this paper or ongoing work on sustainable development and climatechange should be directed to: Shardul Agrawala of the OECD Environment Directorate:[email protected], or Georg Caspary of the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate:[email protected].


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................................5

1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................6

2. KEY ISSUES REGARDING PROJECT SCOPE ...................................................................................7

2.1 Mitigation and adaptation responses.................................................................................................72.2 Climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.....................................................................8

3. FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................10

4. PRINCIPLES FOR CASE STUDY SELECTION ................................................................................14

REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................................16


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This document outlines the analytical framework for an OECD project on Development andClimate Change. A three-tier framework is also described for the project case studies that will provide acountry-level overview of principal climate change impacts and vulnerabilities, followed by an in-depthanalysis at a sectoral or regional/local level on how climate responses could be mainstreamed intoparticular development policies and projects. The primary emphasis of the case studies will be onadaptation responses, although one or more case studies may also examine mitigation responses that relateto natural resource management.


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1. INTRODUCTION

This paper provides the scope, analytical framework, and criteria for selection of case studies foran OECD project on Development and Climate Change. A starting point for the project is that developmentand climate change policies imply a two-way relationship: choices about development pathways influenceclimate change as well as the vulnerability of societies to climate change impacts; on the other hand,climate change impacts could influence the rate and level of economic development itself. Examining suchlinkages would also reinforce understanding about sustainable development – both before the WorldSummit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) and after.

The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses toclimate change within economic development planning, with natural resource management as anoverarching theme. There is a particular emphasis on implications for the development assistancecommunity – particularly the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD, as well as fornational and regional planners in developing countries. As further elaborated in Section 2, the primaryfocus of the project is on adaptation responses to climate change, although one or more case studies mayalso examine linkages between mitigation and economic development planning.

The overall objectives of the project will be accomplished through (three to six) country casestudies that will:

• Review the principal impacts and vulnerabilities to climate change for the case study country, drawingupon information from international and national assessments.

• Identify national development and environmental plans as well as donor funded projects that bear uponsectors and regions vulnerable to climate change impacts, and assess the degree of current attention toclimate change in such plans and projects.

• Conduct one or two in-depth analyses at a thematic, sectoral, regional or project level within eachcountry. This could for example include an assessment of the trade-offs involved in integrating specificanticipatory adaptation measures, such as the modification of infrastructure projects with long lifespans to incorporate projected changes in climate. Linkages between regulatory adaptation anddevelopment planning could also be examined, for example the costs and benefits involved in alteringpolicies that might otherwise increase the vulnerability to climate change.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 clarifies key issues concerning theproject scope that have emerged from the literature review and feedback from member governments. Theframework for analysis is described in Section 3. Section 4 discusses some principles for case studyselection, and provides a list of potential case study countries.


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2. KEY ISSUES REGARDING PROJECT SCOPE

This project seeks to build upon, and not duplicate, established efforts such as the climate changeimpact and vulnerability assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thenational level will be used as the unit of analysis, although in-depth assessment of particular responsestrategies will also require examination at the sectoral, regional and/or local level. The case studies willinclude a spectrum of countries in terms of their level of development as well as their vulnerability toclimate impacts. In addition, two issues have emerged that require further clarification with regard to theprecise scope of the case studies.

2.1 Mitigation and adaptation responses

There are two generic forms of responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation (Figure 1).Mitigation responses seek to limit climate change through reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions.There are important synergies between economic development planning and mitigation, particularly in theenergy sector. These linkages are already the focus of considerable research and analysis, and were alsoexamined in the pilot phase of this project. Adaptation responses meanwhile include biological, technical,institutional, economic, behavioral and other adjustments that reduce vulnerability to the adverse impactsof anticipated climate change (Huq 2002). Effective responses to climate change require an integratedportfolio of responses that that includes both mitigation and adaptation. The primary focus of the casestudies in this project however will be on adaptation. One or more case studies may also examine linkagesbetween economic development planning and natural resource management issues that relate to mitigation.

Figure 1. Mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change (IPCC 2001b)

Human Interference

MITIGATIONof climate change via

GHG sources and sinks

CLIMATE CHANGEincluding variability

Policy Responses

PlannedADAPTATION

to the Impacts andVulnerabilities

Exposure

Initial Impactsor Effects

AutonomousAdaptations

Residual orNet Impacts

IMP

AC

TS

VU

LN

ER

AB

ILIT

IES


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Adaptation strategies can be further classified as reactive or anticipatory, depending upon whenthey are initiated. Both natural and human systems undertake adaptation – although only human systemscan engage in anticipatory adaptation. Within human systems, adaptation can be further classified in termsof whether the actions are undertaken by private or public agents (Figure 2). This project will focus onanticipatory adaptation to climate change, primarily by public agents. This narrowing in scope is necessary,given the resources available for the case studies. However, case studies may also give consideration tohow economic development planning and assistance might use the forces of the private sector to promoteadaptation, and mitigation where appropriate.

Figure 2. Typology of adaptation responses (IPCC 2001b)

Anticipatory Reactive

Pri

vate

Pub

lic

· Purchase of insurance· Construction of house on stilts· Redesign of oil-rigs

· Compensatory payments, subsidies· Enforcement of building codes· Beach nourishment

· Early-warning systems· New building codes, design standards· Incentives for relocation

· Changes in farm practices· Changes in insurance premiums· Purchase of air-conditioning

HumanSystems

NaturalSystems

· Changes in length of growing season· Changes in ecosystem composition· Wetland migration

2.2 Climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

A second set of issues revolves around whether the project would focus on responses to reducevulnerability to current climate variability or planning responses that specifically address anthropogenicclimate change. Human and natural ecosystems have sought to adapt both to climate averages (throughdiversity in clothing and lifestyles), as well as significant departures from these averages, such as thoseexperienced every few years as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO signal andimpacts are particularly severe in the tropics and extra-tropics that are also home to much of the developingworld (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987). It is upon these naturally occurring fluctuations that human activityhas now superimposed a relatively recent trend of anthropogenic climate change. The Third Assessment ofthe IPCC concludes that some of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human and naturalsystems are already discernible, while still others are expected to become more evident with time, as theclimate change signal emerges from the background of natural climate variability (IPCC 2001b).

There has been growing recognition in recent years that adaptation responses to climate changeand climate variability are indeed linked (Agrawala and Cane 2002). Adapting to current climatefluctuations is already sensible in an economic development context, given direct and certain evidence ofadverse impacts of such phenomena. Such adaptations are also likely to enhance resilience of societies tocope with many adverse impacts of climate change, as many human induced changes in climate willmanifest themselves through enhanced or altered climate variability. However, there is already a wealth ofaccumulated knowledge as well as several ongoing projects that examine short-term responses to climatefluctuations across regions, sectors, and spatial scales. These initiatives include a cadre of several hundredresearchers, government agencies, specialized seasonal climate prediction and forecast application


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institutions, as well as international food security, disaster management, and development aid agencies1.The enhancement of societal capacity to cope with current climate risks resulting from such efforts willdoubtless contribute to the ability of societies to cope with the additional risks that might be posed byanthropogenic climate change.

It would nevertheless be premature to preclude – without adequate analysis – the possibility thatanthropogenic climate change might also require forward looking investment and planning responses thatgo beyond short-term responses to current climate variability. Not all climate changes are uncertain at thespatial and temporal scales at which planning decisions are made. While climate projections ofprecipitation and streamflow tend to be highly uncertain (particularly at high spatial resolution),temperature and sea level rise are two variables where climate change trends are more secular and robust.Even in the absence of a clear precipitation signal, temperature increase alone can have wide rangingimpacts, from permafrost melt in high latitudes to the melting of tropical glaciers to reduced water-useefficiency of rivers and irrigation systems, particularly in semi-arid areas. Permafrost melt and the meltingof tropical glaciers have already been documented. Mount Kilimanjaro in fact is expected to lose all of itssnow cover by as early as 2015 (Thompson 2001). Furthermore, not all decisions made during the normalcourse of economic development are short term and therefore out of step with responses to climate change.In fact, many routine investment and infrastructure decisions leave a footprint for several decades or more.This might include infrastructure related to housing or gas pipelines in the Arctic tundra that might bevulnerable to permafrost melt; investments related to coastal infrastructure, tourism, and wetlandprotection that might need to account for sea level rise; and planning for water supply, irrigation andhydropower power systems that might be critically dependent on snow melt from tropical glaciers.

This project therefore takes as its focus the linkages between economic development planningand climate responses over the medium term, from several years to a few decades. This includes: (i)development policies and projects that have a “locked-in”character, in that they might enhance or constrainthe ability of societies to cope with climate variability and change over the medium term; and (ii) newplanning responses that might be necessitated to cope with the impacts of climate changes that mightmanifest themselves in the coming years, such as sea-level rise, melting of tropical glaciers, increasingtemperatures, and changes in precipitation and streamflow. The results are likely to have relevance forOECD governments in their development assistance activities, as well as for the development planners incountries where case studies will be conducted.

1 For a review of ongoing initiatives, see Coping with Climate (IRI 2001), and An Experiment in the Application of Climate Forecasts (NOAA-Office of Global Programs 1999).


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3. FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS

The overall unit of analysis will be at the national level, although analysis of particular adaptationresponses will have a sectoral or regional/local focus. Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities do notfollow political boundaries, but economic planning, development assistance, and adaptation responsestypically do. It is proposed to base the analysis on case studies, each with a three-tier format (Figure 3).The first tier will provide a contextual (geographical, demographic, economic) overview, and summarizeavailable knowledge on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the country. This synthesis willdraw upon IPCC assessments; reports produced under the UNEP, US, and the Dutch country studiesprograms; national communications to the UNFCCC; and research articles. A number of countries,particularly many least developed countries are lacking in such assessments and will therefore not beincluded among the case studies. This may limit the generalizability of case study findings. Within eachcase study country, the focus will be on parameters and regions where the climate change signal is morerobust.

Figure 3. Three-tier framework for case studies

The second tier will review relevant economic, environmental and social plans as well asmultilateral and development assistance portfolios to assess the extent to which concerns related to climatechange impacts are reflected in such documents. Synergies and trade-offs involved in better integration of

Linkages betweenclimate change anddevelopment plans

• Review of relevanteconomic,environmentaland social plans (such asPRSP, NSSD, NEAP)for attention to climatechange impacts.

• Assessment of attentionto climate change indonor aid portfolios.

Development contextand climate change

impacts

• Geographic, demo-graphic and economicoverview.

• Identification of sec-tors and regions vul-nerable to climatechange impacts.

In-depth thematic,regional, or project

level analysis

• Examination of be-nefits and trade-offs inincorporating responsesto climate change inparticular developmentpolicies and projects.

• The focus will be onnatural resource man-agement issues such asforest policy, coastalzone management, andwater infrastructure pro-jects.

2.

3.

1.


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climate responses in such plans will be examined. National policies could include multi-year economicplans, Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers, National Strategies for Sustainable Development, and NationalEnvironmental Action Plans. Evaluation of development assistance portfolios meanwhile will build uponthree recent efforts. The first was an analysis by Burton and van Aalst (1999) on “Integrating ClimateChange Vulnerability and Adaptation into (World) Bank Work”. A second analogous study by Klein(2001) examined “Adaptation to Climate Change in German Official Development Assistance”. Boththese studies examined a cross-section of projects across countries and did not explicitly examine the stateof knowledge on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in the region to assess whether there wasenough certain knowledge to incorporate adaptation concerns in project planning. The third study, a WorldBank analysis on “Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable Development” has a country focus andexamines climate change impacts, adaptation options, and whether or not they were being incorporated inrelevant development projects (World Bank 2000). In terms of scope, this analysis is most directly relatedto the present project.

The project will examine the extent to which climate change issues are taken into account indevelopment assistance portfolios across principal donors for the case study country. Previous studies werelimited to only one donor. Information available from the OECD-DAC will be used to identify principaldonors and their portfolios for particular countries. For illustration, Figure 4 shows the break-up of OfficialDevelopment Assistance for Bangladesh.

Figure 4. Sources and portfolio of development assistance flows to Bangladesh

Source: OECD/World Bank.


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In addition to looking at one donor, existing studies have also largely restricted themselves toobservations of whether or not mention is made of climate change responses in project documents. Moredetailed analysis is necessary to explore exactly how such concerns can be better incorporated indevelopment planning.

The third and final tier will therefore consist of one or two in-depth thematic, regional, or projectlevel analyses within each country that systematically examine the benefits and trade-offs involved inincorporating climate responses within economic development planning. The project will also draw uponother ongoing initiatives, including the National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAS), the AdaptationPolicy Framework that is currently being developed by UNDP-GEF (2002), as well as a set of guidelineson how to incorporate adaptation into development policies and projects in Pacific Island States (Campbelland de Waet 2000).

At a more generic level, Titus (1990) has proposed the following criteria to consider whenevaluating potential responses to climate change2:

• Economic efficiency: Will the initiative yield benefits substantially greater than if the resources wereapplied elsewhere?

• Performance under uncertainty: Is the strategy reasonable for the entire range of anticipated changes inclimate?

• Urgency: Would the strategy be successful if implementation were delayed 10 or 20 years?

• Cost: Does the strategy require minimal resources?

• Equity: Does the strategy avoid the problem of unfairly helping some at the expense of others regions,generations, and economic classes? Does it give people ample time to adjust?

• Institutional feasibility: Is the strategy acceptable to the public? Can it be implemented under existinginstitutions and laws?

• Unique or critical resources: Would the strategy decrease the risk of losing unique environmental orcultural resources?

• Consistency: Does the policy support other national, state, community, or private goals?

Exploring answers to such questions necessarily requires a diversity of tools and approaches. Thechoice of a particular approach must await the specifics of particular case studies and consultation withproject partners who will be engaged in implementing them. At its most descriptive this could for exampleinvolve a case study on the trade-offs faced by a country in incorporating adaptation or particularmitigation concerns within its land-use and forestry plans and policies. More analytically rigorous toolscould be employed when looking specific scenarios for climate change impacts, screening of relevantadaptation options, and the costs and benefits associated with incorporating different adaptation responseswithin economic planning. A listing of potential tools and methods is provided in Box 1.

2An additional criterion could examine whether there are benefits or trade-offs to adding greenhouse gas mitigation action, where relevant along

with the adaptation responses under evaluation.


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Box 1. Tools and methods

1. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is one well-known example of a single valued approach, which seeks to assign economic values tothe various consequences of a proposed activity. The resulting costs and benefits are combined into a single decision makingcriterion like the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), or benefit-cost ratio (BCR). Useful variants include costeffectiveness, and least cost based methods. Both benefits and costs are defined as the difference between what would occur with andwithout the project being implemented. The economic efficiency viewpoint usually requires that shadow prices (or opportunitycosts) be used to measure costs and benefits. All significant impacts and externalities need to be valued as economic benefits andcosts. However, since many environmental and social effects may not be easy to value in monetary terms, CBA is useful mainly asa tool to assess economic and financial outcomes.

2. Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA)Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) is another example of a single valued approach and identifies the least-cost measure forachieving a specific goal. CEA is particularly useful when benefits can not be explicitly valued. The most widespread applicationto the climate change problem is perhaps where one seeks to identify the least-cost option to achieve given levels of GHG emissionreductions, without any explicit attempt to specify what the benefits of the level of emission reduction may be.

3. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) or multi-objective decision making is particularly useful in situations when a single criterionapproach like CBA falls short – especially where significant environmental and social impacts cannot be assigned monetaryvalues. In MCA, desirable objectives are specified and corresponding attributes or indicators are identified. Unlike CBA, the actualmeasurement of indicators does not have to be in monetary terms. In other words, different environmental and social indicatorsmay be developed, side by side with economic costs and benefits. Thus, more explicit recognition is given to the fact that a varietyof both monetary and non-monetary objectives and indicators may influence policy decisions. MCA provides techniques forcomparing and ranking different outcomes, even though a variety of indicators are used.

4. Sustainable Development Assessment (SDA)Sustainable Development Assessment (SDA) is an important tool to ensure balanced analysis of both development andsustainability concerns. The ‘economic’ component of SDA is based on conventional economic and financial analysis (includingcost benefit analysis, as described earlier). The other two key components are environmental and social assessment (EA and SA) –see for example World Bank (1998). Poverty assessment is often interwoven with SDA. Economic, environmental and socialanalyses need to be integrated and harmonised within SDA. Since traditional decision making relies heavily on economics, a firststep towards such integration would be the systematic incorporation of environmental and social concerns into the economic policyframework of human society.

5. Decision Analytic ToolsDecision Analytic Tools focus expressively on how to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. There are a number ofsector specific or integrated decision support techniques, methodologies, spreadsheets, and computer-based tools that are relevantfor this stage of analysis, like the decision matrixes (DM) which have been proposed by Benioff and Warren (1996) as well as bySmith (1996). Respectively Smith, Ragland and Pitts (1996) developed a DM to screen and select for climate change adaptationoptions in Water Resource Management and Forestry, although both examples are hypothetical. Two among many computer basedpackages include Coastal Resources Management Role-play (CORONA) that examines adaptation within the broader context ofcoastal zone management (Rijsberman et. al. 1995), and Tools for Environmental Assessment and Management (TEAM) that helpsevaluate issues such as equity and flexibility when screening for adaptation options (Smith et al. 1996).

6. Action Impact Matrix (AIM)The Action Impact Matrix (AIM) proposed by Munasinghe and Cruz (1995) and Munasinghe (2002) is a special type of decisionanalytic tool to evaluate economic, environmental and social interactions of various policies by a multi-attribute scoring system.The AIM approach can help identify ‘win-win’ policies and projects, which not only achieve conventional macroeconomicobjectives (like growth), but also make local and national development efforts more sustainable. With respect to climate change,the approach can identify central intersections between development efforts and climate change issues like vulnerability, impactsand adaptation. AIM itself promotes an integrated view, meshing development decisions with priority economic, environmentaland social impacts. Usually, the rows of the table list the main development interventions (both policies and projects), while thecolumns indicate key sustainable development issues and impacts (including climate change vulnerability). AIM could potentiallyhelp identify development paths that embed national climate change policies in the overall sustainable development strategy.


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4. PRINCIPLES FOR CASE STUDY SELECTION

Selection of case study countries is contingent upon scientific, socio-political, and pragmaticconsiderations. From a scientific perspective, a primary consideration is to select countries that are likely tobe adversely impacted by reasonably robust signals in climate change. This includes sea level rise andtemperature increases along with associated first and higher order impacts on natural systems that includecoastal inundation, loss of wetlands and agricultural land, melting of permafrost and tropical glaciers, andreduced water use efficiency. Sensitivity of systems to changes in precipitation will be considered wherethere is reasonable confidence in such projections across ensemble runs from various climate models.

From a socio-political perspective, the choice of case study countries will include a spectrumfrom low- to middle income countries, given the focus of this project on climate change and economicdevelopment. Economic development is viewed as a continuum and not as a state, and so the project scopeis not limited to least developed countries. Given the focus on long-term planning, case study countrieswill also be screened for stable governance and economies; pre-existence of long term economic, social,and environmental planning initiatives; as well as reasonably strong institutions that might facilitate thetranslation of such long-term plans into action.

Finally, there are a number of pragmatic considerations, including the project budget, a timeframe of about one year between initiation and completion of case studies, as well as the institutionalcontext of the OECD under which these case studies will be conducted. Pre-existence of extensive nationaland sub-national information on climate change scenarios and potential impacts and vulnerabilities istherefore critical. Synergies with ongoing or recently completed projects will be an added advantage. Thisis also related to the identification of qualified researchers and institutions to partner with in theimplementation of the case studies.

Between three to six national case studies are envisaged as part of this project. A preliminaryscoping analysis, relying largely on scientific (and to some extent socio-political) criteria, has led to theidentification of sixteen countries. As shown in Table 1, this initial shortlist encompasses considerablediversity in location, size, incomes and development contexts. There is also scientific basis for projectionsof significant climate change that go beyond impacts experienced from current climate variability. Peruand Tanzania have tropical glaciers that are expected to disappear in the coming decades with attendantimpacts on natural ecosystems, agriculture, water supply, and hydropower. Many countries have highvulnerability to sea-level rise – from small island states at one extreme where adaptation concerns need tobe incorporated in planning across a range of sectors, to Egypt where sea level rise also threatens half ofthe country’s agricultural land, and Uruguay where overall vulnerability is moderate, but loss of wetlandsmight be irreversible (Nicholls 1994). Sea-level rise and/or melting of glaciers could in fact be crosscuttingthemes for comparative analysis of adaptation responses across a wide range of geographic and economiccontexts.


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Table 1. List of potential case study countries

Region/Country

PopulationJuly 2001 est.

Areain km2

HDI∗∗∗∗

rankGDP percapita† Illustrative climate change impacts

Island States:

Fiji 844,330 18,270 67 7,300 High percentage of the population affected by sea level rise, significantcapital value at risk, loss of wetlands and mangrove fringes.

Kiribati 94,149 717 NA 850Critical impacts on the highly populated islands of Betio and Buota. Sealevel rise projections however are uncertain due to lack of baseline data.

Tuvalu 10,991 26 NA 1,100

Low lying atoll with critical vulnerability to sea level rise. Land-loss dueto sea-level rise has already been reported (IPCC). In addition IPCCpredicts greater chances of cyclones, critical impacts on water resourcesand the threatening of unique traditional heritage sites.

Asia:

Bangladesh 131,269,860 144,000 132 1,570 Critical vulnerability to sea level rise due to low elevation and highpopulation density. Critical impacts on wetlands and crop production.

Bhutan 2,049,412 47,000 130 1,100

Nepal 25,284,463 140,800 129 1,360

Significant melting of Himalayan glaciers (including on Mt. Everest)documented by UNEP study, with major impacts such as bursting ofglacial lakes, downstream flooding, and loss of tourism revenues.

Philippines 82,841,518 300,000 70 3,800

Expected increase in the frequency of severe weather distortions withimpacts on agriculture (rice/corn production) and on mangroves/coralreefs. Coastal inundation and salt-water intrusion will lead to land loss(small islands); the displacement or relocation of around 5 millioninhabitants is expected.

Vietnam 79,939,014 329,560 101 1,950Vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise, particularly in the Red RiverDelta in the north and in the Mekong Delta. Sea level rise threatens about20,00 km2 as well as the cities Haiphong, Danang and Vungtau.

Africa:

Egypt 69,536,644 1,001,450 105 3,600

Sizeable portion of the lower Nile delta threatened from sea level risewith implications on human settlements and agriculture. Economicsectors, especially around Alexandria also critically vulnerable. Irrigatedagriculture inland might also suffer due to reduced water use efficiency asa result of significant projected increases in temperatures.

Ghana 19,894,014 238,540 119 1,900Accelerated sea level rise will cause important changes including inlandmigration of wetlands and losses of existing wetlands. Beach erosionthreatens historic forts and castles.

Senegal 10,284,929 196,190 145 1,600High economic vulnerability to sea level rise as low lying coastal zoneshome to 90% of industry and over half the population.

Tanzania 36,232,074 945,087 140 710Mount Kilimanjaro expected to lose snow cover as early as 2015 withattendant impacts on tourism, water resources, and coffeee production.Sizeable loss of land and beaches due to sea level rise.

The Americas:

Belize 256,062 22,966 54 3,200 Sea level rise threatens the largest coral reefs of the western hemispherewith economic implications on tourism.

Mexico 101,879,171 1,972,550 51 9,100

Model projections show consistent declines in summer and winterprecipitation alongwith increases in temperatures, with seriousimplications on agriculture and water resource management. Moderatevulnerability to sea level rise, except Tabasco where inland penetration ofup to 50km expected for a 0.5m sea level rise (Conde 1999).

Peru 27,483,864 1,285,220 73 4,550

Steady retreat of the Quelccaya glacier has critical impacts on the Rimacriver that is mainly responsible for the water supply to the 8 millionresidents of Lima, as well as hydropower generation in dry seasons. Sealevel rise threatens the population and infrastructure of the low-lyingareas of Chucuito y La Punta, Pisco and Ilo.

Uruguay 3,360,105 176,220 37 9,300

Critical sea level rise vulnerabilities in terms of wetlands loss and capitalvalue with implications for tourism. Also offers an interesting case studyon how carbon-sequestration is already being integrated with forestry,economic development, and agricultural policies.

∗ UNDP Human Development Index 2001 (HDI). The HDI ranks countries on a regressive scale from 1 to 162, with higher values of the indexassociated with countries that have lower levels of development measured in terms of life expectancy, educational attainment, and real income.

† Based on purchasing power parity in US dollars


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Benioff R, and J. Warren (eds.) 1996. Steps in Preparing Climate Change Action Plans: A Handbook.Washington DC: US Country Studies Program. 300pp.

Burton, I. and M. van Aalst. 1999. Come Hell or High Water: Integrating Climate Change Vulnerabilityand Adaptation into Bank Work. World Bank Environment Department Papers No. 72.

Campbell, J.R.C. and N.D. de Wet. 2000. Adapting to Climate Change: Incorporating climate changeadaptation into development activities in Pacific Island Countries - a set of guidelines for policymakers and development planners. South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), Apia,Samoa. 35pp.

Conde, C. 1999. “Impacts of climate change and climate variability in Mexico”, Acclimations, September-October.

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Nicholls, R.J. 1994. Synthesis of vulnerability analysis studies. Proceedings of World Coast ’93.Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.

NOAA – Office of Global Programs. 1999. An Experiment in the Application of ClimateForecasts. Washington D.C.

Rijsberman, F.R., R.S. Westmacott, and D. Waardenburg. 1995. CORONA: Coastal ResourcesManagement Roleplay. National Institute of Coastal and Marine Management, The Hague.

Ringius L., T.E. Downing, M. Hulme, D. Waughray, and R. Selrod. 1996. Climate Change in Africa –Issues and Challenges in Agriculture and Water for Sustainable Development. CICERO Report1996:8, Oslo.

Ropelewski, C.F. and M.S. Halpert 1987. “Global and Regional Scale Precipitation patterns associatedwith the El Niño/Southern Oscillation”. Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606-1626.

Smith, J.B. 1996. “Using a decision matrix to assess climate change options” in J.B. Smith et al.(eds.) Adapting to Climate Change. Springer Verlag. 474pp.

Smith, J.B., S.E. Ragland, and G.J. Pitts. 1996. “A process for evaluating anticipatory adaptationmeasures for climate change”. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 92, pp. 229-238.

Thompson, L. 2001. Paper presented at AAAS annual meeting, San Francisco.

Titus, J.G. 1990. “Strategies for adapting to the greenhouse effect”, Journal of the AmericanPlanning Association, Summer: pp. 311-323.

World Bank. 1998. Environmental Assessment Operational Directive, (EAOD4.01). WashingtonD.C.

World Bank. 2000. Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Report No:21104 BD. World Bank South Asia Rural Development Unit, Dhaka.

Analysing the Nexus of Sustainable Development and Climate Change:

An Overview

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Unclassified COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2002)2/FINAL Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 09-Apr-2003 ___________________________________________________________________________________________

English - Or. English

ANALYSING THE NEXUS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AN OVERVIEW By Mohan Munasinghe, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Sri Lanka

JT00142470

Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format

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Application for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this material should be addressed to the Head of Publications Service, OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris, Cedex 16, France.


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FOREWORD

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity being jointly overseen by the (Environment Policy Committee) Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the DAC (Development Assistance Committee) Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment (WPENV). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Insights from the project will be shared with the development assistance community in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.

The paper served as a basis for discussions in an initial OECD expert meeting, held in March 2002, aimed at constructing a framework for future OECD work on development and climate change. It therefore outlines key concepts, relevant principles, and tools for analysis that could support OECD work on this theme.

Partly drawing on this report, a subsequent Concept Paper (Agrawala and Berg 2002) outlined a more specific framework for launching and structuring case studies that are now being carried out under the project. These case studies are focusing on adaptation, to develop an understanding of how climate change adaptation policies in various natural resource management sectors (e.g. coastal zone, water resource and forestry management) can be mainstreamed into economic development planning and assistance policies. Although the case studies are principally addressing adaptation policies, they are also considering opportunities for combined adaptation-mitigation and development outcomes (for example, in the areas of land use and forest management).

Mitigation is also recognised by the international community as a key connection between economic development and climate change policies. Future work in this project may wish to consider mitigation connections more specifically or, drawing on the results of the adaptation and natural resource management case studies, begin to assess the appropriate balance between investment in adaptation and mitigation options in different national contexts. Mitigation is, therefore, also discussed in this document, alongside vulnerability and adaptation issues. Ultimately, climate change solutions will need to identify and exploit synergies, as well as seek to balance possible trade-offs, among the multiple objectives of development, mitigation, and adaptation policies.

The paper was prepared by Mohan Munasinghe (MIND, Sri Lanka). The author is grateful to all the participants in an OECD expert meeting held on March 13-14, 2002. The contributions of Cannon (2002), Huq (2002), Klein (2002), OECD (2002), Sari (2002), and Virdin (2002) are especially noteworthy. Thanks are also due especially to Jan Corfee-Morlot and other OECD staff (Martin Berg, Shardul Agrawala, Georg Caspary, David O’Connor and Nils-Axel Braathen) for their constructive comments, and to Nishanthi De Silva and Yvani Deraniyagala of MIND for help in preparing the final version.


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The views expressed in the paper are those of the author alone, and do not necessarily reflect the positions of either the OECD or its Member countries. The report is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 7

2. OVERVIEW OF KEY CONCEPTS.................................................................................................... 8

2.1 Sustainable development concepts ................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Economic, environmental and social sustainability ......................................................................... 9 2.3 Poverty and equity.......................................................................................................................... 10 2.4 Integration of economic, social and environmental considerations................................................ 10 2.5 Convergence between optimality and durability approaches ......................................................... 11 2.6 Relevant principles for policy formulation..................................................................................... 11

3. NEXUS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE................................ 14

3.1 Circular relationship between climate change and sustainable development................................. 14 3.2 Economic, social and environmental risks arising from climate change........................................ 15 3.3 Vulnerability, resilience, adaptation and adaptive capacity ........................................................... 16 3.4 Mitigation and mitigative capacity [to replace previous text with this heading............................. 16

4. TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT ............................................................................. 18

4.1 Action impact matrix (AIM) .......................................................................................................... 18 4.2 Indicators ........................................................................................................................................ 19 4.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)......................................................................................................... 19 4.4 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)...................................................................................................... 21 4.5 Sustainable Development Assessment (SDA)................................................................................ 21

5. ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.................................................................................................................... 22

5.1 Transnational scale: climate change policy objectives................................................................... 22 5.2 National-economy-wide scale: macroeconomic management ....................................................... 24

5.2.1 Scope of policies and range of impacts..................................................................................... 24 5.2.2 Screening and problem identification ....................................................................................... 28 5.2.3 Analysis and remediation.......................................................................................................... 29 5.2.4 Using the AIM to reconcile development and climate change objectives ................................ 30

5.3 Sub-national scale: energy sector planning and forest ecosystem management ............................ 31 5.3.1 Sustainable energy development framework ............................................................................ 31 5.3.2 Methodology............................................................................................................................. 32 5.3.3 Main results of Example 3 ........................................................................................................ 33 5.3.4 Conclusions of Example 3 ........................................................................................................ 36 5.3.5 Local-project scale: Hydroelectric power ................................................................................. 36 5.3.6 Environmental, social and economic indicators ....................................................................... 37

6. CONCLUDING REMARKS............................................................................................................. 40

ANNEX 1: TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT.................................................................... 42

A1.1 Indicators .................................................................................................................................. 42 A1.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) ................................................................................................... 42 A1.3 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) ................................................................................................ 43 A1.4 Linking sustainable development issues with conventional decision making .......................... 45

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 48


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1. INTRODUCTION

World decision makers are looking for new solutions to traditional development issues such as economic stagnation, persistent poverty, hunger, malnutrition, and illness, as well as newer challenges like environmental degradation and globalisation. One key approach that has received growing attention is the concept of sustainable development or ‘development which lasts’ (WCED 1987). Following the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro and the adoption of the United Nations’ Agenda 21, the goal of sustainable development has become well accepted world-wide (UN 1993).

Meanwhile, the threat of global climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to humanity. While climate change is important in the long run, it is crucial to recognise that (especially for the developing countries) there are a number of other development issues that affect human welfare more immediately – such as hunger and malnutrition, poverty, health, and pressing local environmental issues. Seen from the development viewpoint, climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation are the main elements of the climate change problem that resonate. Development pathways also determine emission levels, and they have implications for mitigation strategies as well.

Climate change and development interact in a circular fashion. Alternative development paths will certainly affect future climate change, and in turn, climate change will have an impact on prospects for sustainable development (for details, see IPCC, 2001). In the same context, climate change may endanger the success of some development co-operation efforts and vice versa, i.e., some development assistance efforts could (unintentionally) have repercussion’s for a country’s emission levels or mitigation options, as well as exacerbate its vulnerability to climate change (Klein 2001).

This paper sketches out a broad framework to address the nexus of sustainable development and climate change. It also draws out some implications for the preparation of future case studies aimed at exploring the dynamics of climate change vulnerability and adaptation – especially when one goes beyond simple win-win outcomes, and confronts difficult trade-off situations among conflicting objectives (Burton and van Aalst 1999, Klein 2001).

The paper is organised as follows: Section 2 introduces the concept of sustainable development; Section 3 links that concept to climate change. In section 4, tools and methods of integrating and analysing the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of this nexus are briefly presented. These ideas are illustrated in section 5, by applying them to specific examples involving climate-related problems across the full range of spatial scales - at the global, national-economy-wide, sub-national-sectoral, and local-project levels. Section 6 contains some concluding thoughts and a discussion of implications for case studies.


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2. OVERVIEW OF KEY CONCEPTS

2.1 Sustainable development concepts

While no universally acceptable practical definition of sustainable development exists, the concept has evolved to encompass three major points of view: economic, social and environmental (Figure 1[a]). Each viewpoint corresponds to a domain (and a system) that has its own distinct driving forces and objectives. The economy is geared mainly towards improving human welfare, primarily through increases in the consumption of goods and services. The environmental domain focuses on protection of the integrity and resilience of ecological systems. The social domain emphasises the enrichment of human relationships, achievement of individual and group aspirations, and strengthening of values and institutions.

Figure 1. Sustainable development triangle supported by a trans-disciplinary framework

Social• empowerment• inclusion/consultation• governance

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Source: adapted from Munasinghe 1992, 1994.

Figure 1(b) indicates how an emerging ‘sustainomics’ framework (i.e., science of sustainable development), and associated trans-disciplinary knowledge base, would support comprehensive and balanced assessment of the trade-offs and synergies that might exist between the economic, social and


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environmental dimensions of sustainable development (as well as other relevant disciplines and paradigms) [Munasinghe 1994, 2001; OECD 2001]. Balance is also needed in the relative emphasis placed on traditional development (which is more appealing to the South) versus sustainability (which is emphasised by the North) (Munasinghe1992). The optimality and durability approaches described in Box 1 (below) play key roles in integrating economic, social and environmental issues (Munasinghe 2001).

Current approaches to sustainable development draw on the development experience of the 20th century. For example, the dominant development paradigm during the 1950s was growth, focusing mainly on increasing economic output and consumption. In the 1960s, development thinking shifted towards equitable growth, where social (distributional) objectives, especially poverty alleviation, were recognized to be as important as economic efficiency. Since the 1970s, environment has emerged as the third key element of (sustainable) development.

Broadly speaking, sustainable development may be described as “a process for improving the range of opportunities that will enable individual human beings and communities to achieve their aspirations and full potential over a sustained period of time, while maintaining the resilience of economic, social and environmental systems” (Munasinghe 1994). In other words, sustainable development requires (i) opportunities for improving economic, social and ecological systems; and (ii) increases in adaptive capacity (Gunderson and Holling 2001). Expanding the set of opportunities for system improvement will give rise to development, while increasing adaptive capacity will improve resilience and sustainability. The evolving behaviour of individuals and communities facilitates learning, the testing of new processes, adaptation, and improvement.

The precise definition of sustainable development remains an ideal, elusive (and perhaps unreachable) goal. A less ambitious, but more focused and feasible strategy would merely seek to ‘make development more sustainable’. Such an incremental (or gradient-based) method is more practical, because many unsustainable activities can be recognised and eliminated. This approach seeks continuing improvements in the present quality of life at a lower intensity of resource use, hopefully, leaving behind for future generations an undiminished stock of productive assets - manufactured, natural and social capital - that will enhance opportunities for improving their quality of life (Munasinghe 1992).

2.2 Economic, environmental and social sustainability

Economic progress is often evaluated in terms of welfare (or utility) – measured as willingness to pay for goods and services consumed. The modern concept underlying economic sustainability seeks to maximise the flow of income or consumption that could be generated while at least maintaining the stock of assets (or capital) which yield these beneficial outputs (Hicks 1946). Economic efficiency plays a key role in ensuring both efficient allocation of resources in production, and efficient consumption choices that maximise utility. Problems arise in the valuation of non-market outputs (especially social and ecological services), while issues like uncertainty, irreversibility and catastrophic collapse pose additional difficulties (Pearce and Turner 1990).

The environmental interpretation of sustainability focuses on the overall viability and health of ecological systems – defined in terms of a comprehensive, multiscale, dynamic, hierarchical measure of resilience, vigour and organisation. Natural resource degradation, pollution and loss of biodiversity are detrimental because they increase vulnerability, undermine system health, and reduce resilience (Perrings and Opschoor 1994; Munasinghe and Shearer 1995) The notion of a "safe threshold" (and the related concept of "carrying capacity") are important, e.g., to avoid catastrophic ecosystem collapse (Holling 1986).


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Social sustainability seeks to reduce vulnerability and maintain the health (i.e., resilience, vigour and organisation) of social and cultural systems, and their ability to withstand shocks [Chambers 1989; Bohle et al. 1994; Ribot et al. 1996]. Strengthening social values and institutions (like trust and behavioural norms), and enhancing human capital (through education) will increase social capital – typically, the accumulation of capabilities for individuals and groups of people to work together to achieve shared objectives. Weakening social values, institutions and equity will reduce the resilience of social systems, and undermine governance. Preserving cultural diversity and cultural capital, strengthening social cohesion and networks of relationships, and reducing destructive conflicts, are integral elements of this approach. In summary, for both ecological and socioeconomic systems, the emphasis is on improving system health and its dynamic ability to adapt to change across a range of spatial and temporal scales, rather than the conservation of some ‘ideal’ static state.

2.3 Poverty and equity

Poverty eradication is a primary goal of the development community. From the sustainable development viewpoint, both poverty and equity have not only economic, but also social and environmental dimensions, and therefore need to be assessed using a comprehensive set of indicators that go beyond income distribution alone. For example, economic policies seek to emphasise means of expanding employment and gainful opportunities for poor people through growth, improving access to markets, and increasing both assets and education. Social policies would focus on empowerment and inclusion, by making institutions more responsive to the poor, and removing barriers that exclude disadvantaged groups. Environmentally related measures to help poor people might seek to reduce their vulnerability to resource depletion and natural disasters, crop failures, loss of employment, sickness, economic shocks, etc.

Thus, an important objective of poverty alleviation is to provide poor people with enhanced physical, human and financial resources that will reduce their vulnerability. Such assets increase the capacity for both coping (i.e., making short-run changes) and adapting (i.e., making permanent adjustments) to external shocks [Moser 1998]. The foregoing ideas merge quite naturally with the "sustainable livelihoods" approach, which focuses on access to portfolios of assets (social, natural and manufactured), the capacity to withstand shocks, gainful employment, and social processes, within a community or individual oriented context.

2.4 Integration of economic, social and environmental considerations

From a longer term perspective, the evolution of social, economic and ecological systems within a larger, more complex adaptive system, provides useful insights regarding the integration of the various elements of sustainable development – see Figure 1(a) [Munasinghe 1994; Costanza 1997]. Two broad approaches are relevant for integrating the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. They are distinguished by the degree to which the concepts of optimality and durability are emphasised (Box 1). While there are overlaps between the two approaches, the main thrust is somewhat different in each case. The degree of uncertainty involved often plays a key role in determining which approach would be preferred. For example, a policy modeller who is analysing relatively steady and well-ordered conditions may favour an optimising approach that attempts to control and even fine-tune outcomes, whereas a subsistence farmer facing chaotic and unpredictable circumstances might opt for a more durable response, which simply enhances survival prospects.


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2.5 Convergence between optimality and durability approaches

The practical convergence of the optimality and durability approaches (see Box 1) in the area of climate change may be realised in several ways. For example, at the international level, the Framework Convention on Climate Change seeks to avoid levels of GHG concentrations that would constitute ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. Thus, there is an interplay between the durability and optimality approaches, and the respective roles of adaptation and mitigation options and their costs, in determining what level of risk and cost is acceptable (for details see IPCC 1996a; Munasinghe 1998, and Example 1 below). At the national level, economy-wide policies involving both fiscal and monetary measures (e.g., carbon taxes, subsidies, interest rates) might be optimised on the basis of quantitative macroeconomic models. Nevertheless, decision-makers inevitably modify these economically ‘optimal’ policies before implementing them, to take into account other socio-political considerations based more on durability. These considerations include protection of the poor and regional development factors, among others, which in turn facilitate governance and stability (see Example 2 below).

2.6 Relevant principles for policy formulation

When considering climate change response options, several principles and ideas, which are widely used in environmental analysis, may be useful. These include the polluter pays principle, economic valuation, internalisation of externalities, property rights, and equity considerations. We note that the applicability of some of these concepts to climate change issues has not been universally accepted.

The polluter pays principle calls for national authorities “to promote the internalization of environmental costs and the use of economic instruments, taking into account the approach that the polluter should, in principle, bear the cost of pollution, with due regard to the public interest and without distorting international trade and investment” (Principle 16, UN General Assembly 1992). The economic rationale is that this provides an incentive for polluters to reduce their emissions to optimal (i.e., economically efficient) levels.

Quantification and economic valuation of potential damage from polluting emissions is an important prerequisite, when seeking to apply the polluter pays principle (see Box 2 and Annex 1). In the case of a common property resource like the atmosphere, GHG emitters can freely pollute without penalties. Such ‘externalities’ need to be internalised by imposing costs on polluters that reflect the damage caused. An externality occurs when the welfare of one party is affected by the activity of another party who does not take these repercussions into account in his/her decision making (e.g., no compensating payments are made). The theoretical basis for this is well known since Pigou [1920] originally defined and treated externalities in rigorous fashion. In this context, the notion of property rights is also relevant to establish that the atmosphere is a valuable and scarce resource that cannot be used freely and indiscriminately.

IPCC work also indicates that although climate change policy cannot be expected to address all prevailing equity issues, it is important to seek adaptation and mitigation polices that avoid worsening existing inequities (IPCC 1996a – Ch.3). While economic theory is best suited to designing efficient economic policies, ethical and social considerations are helpful in addressing equity issues (Pinguelli-Rosa and Munasinghe 2002). Non-climate policies have been traditionally used to address both efficiency and equity issues. At the same time, some additional aspects may be considered in designing climate change policy, including the establishment of an equitable and participatory global framework for making and implementing collective decisions about climate change (e.g., like the one emerging through the UNFCCC).


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Other key ideas that are relevant for developing climate change response options, include the concepts of durability, optimality, safe limits, carrying capacity, irreversibility, non-linear responses, and precaution. Broadly speaking, durability and optimality are complementary and potentially convergent approaches (see earlier discussion). Some systems may respond to climate change in a non-linear fashion, with the potential for catastrophic collapse. The need for precaution argues that lack of scientific certainty about climate change risks and vulnerabilities should not become a basis for inaction, especially where relatively low cost steps could be undertaken as a form of insurance – to facilitate both adaptation and mitigation efforts [UNFCCC 1993].

Box 1. Reconciling optimality and durability approaches

The optimality-based approach is used in economic analysis to generally maximise the discounted sum of welfare (or utility) over a period of time, subject to the requirement that the stock of productive assets (or welfare itself) does not decrease in the long term. Some ecological models also optimize variables like energy use, nutrient flow, or biomass production – giving more weight to system vigour as a measure of sustainability. However, given the difficulties of quantifying and valuing many such ‘non-economic’ assets, the costs and benefits associated with market-based activities tend to dominate in most economic optimization models. Basically, the optimal growth path maximizes economic output, while the sustainability requirement is met within this framework by ensuring that stocks of assets (or capital) do not decrease over time. Some analysts support a ‘strong sustainability’ constraint, which requires the separate preservation of each category of critical asset (for example, manufactured, natural, socio-cultural and human capital), assuming that they are complements rather than substitutes. One version of this rule might correspond roughly to maximizing economic output, subject to side constraints on environmental and social variables that are deemed critical for sustainability (e.g., biodiversity loss or meeting the basic needs of the poor). Other researchers have argued in favour of ‘weak sustainability,’ which seeks to maintain the aggregate monetary value of the total stock of assets, assuming that the various asset types may be valued and that there is some degree of substitutability among them (see for example, Nordhaus and Tobin 1972).

Side constraints are often necessary, because the underlying basis of economic valuation, optimization and efficient use of resources may not be easily applied to ecological objectives like protecting biodiversity and improving resilience, or to social goals such as promoting equity, public participation and empowerment. Constraints on critical environmental and social indicators may be considered proxies representing "safe thresholds", which help to maintain the viability of those systems. In this context, techniques like multi-criteria analysis may be required, to facilitate trade-offs among a variety of non-commensurable variables and objectives (see for example, Meier and Munasinghe 1994). Risk and uncertainty will also necessitate the use of decision analysis tools (see Toth 1999). Recent work also underlines that risk perceptions are subjective and depend on the risk measures used, as well as other factors such as ethno-cultural background, socio-economic status, and gender [Bennet 2000].

…. Box 1 continued over page


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Box 1 (Cont.) Reconciling optimality and durability approaches

The second broad integrative approach would focus primarily on sustaining the quality of life – e.g., by satisfying environmental, social and economic sustainability requirements. Such a framework favours ‘durable’ development paths that permit growth, but are not necessarily economically optimal. The economic constraint might be framed in terms of maintaining consumption levels (defined broadly to include environmental services, leisure and other ‘non-economic’ benefits) – i.e., per capita consumption that never falls below some minimum level, or is non-declining. The environmental and social sustainability requirements may be expressed in terms of indicators of ‘state’ that seek to measure the durability or health (resilience, vigour and organisation) of complex ecological and socio-economic systems. As an illustrative example, consider a simple durability index (D) for an ecosystem measured in terms of its expected lifespan (in a healthy state), as a fraction of the normal lifespan. We might specify: D = D(R,V,O,S) ; to indicate the dependence of durability on resilience (R), vigour (V), organisation (O), and the state of the external environment (S) – especially in relation to potentially damaging shocks. Durability encourages a holistic systemic viewpoint. The self-organizing and internal structure of ecological and socio-economic systems makes ‘the whole more durable (and valuable) than the sum of the parts’. A narrow definition of efficiency based on marginal analysis of individual components may be misleading [Schutz 1999]. For example, it is more difficult to value the integrated functional diversity in a forest ecosystem than the individual species of trees and animals. Therefore, the former is more likely to fall victim to market failure (as an externality). Furthermore, even where correct environmental shadow prices prevail, some analysts point out that cost minimization could lead to homogenization and consequent reductions in system diversity [Daly and Cobb 1989; Perrings et al. 1995]. Systems analysis also helps to identify the benefits of co-operative structures and behaviour, which a more partial analysis may neglect.

The possibility of many durable paths favours simulation-based methods, including consideration of alternative world-views and futures (rather than one optimal result). This approach is consonant with recent research on integrating human actors into ecological models (Ecological Economics 2000 – Special Issue). Key elements include, multiple-agent modeling to account for heterogeneous behaviour, recognition of bounded rationality leading to different perceptions and biases, and more emphasis on social interactions which give rise to responses like imitation, reciprocity and comparison.

Source: Excerpt from Munasinghe 2001.


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3. NEXUS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

3.1 Circular relationship between climate change and sustainable development

The full cycle of cause and effect between climate change and sustainable development is summarised in Figure 2, which outlines an integrated assessment modelling (IAM) framework (IPCC 2001a). Each socio-economic development path (driven by the forces of population, economy, technology, and governance) gives rise to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse gas concentrations and disturbing the natural balance between incident solar radiation and energy re-radiated from the earth. Such changes give rise to the enhanced greenhouse effect that increases radiative forcing of the climate system. The resultant changes in climate will persist well into the future, and impose stresses on the human and natural systems. Such impacts will ultimately have effects on socio-economic development paths, thus completing the cycle. The development paths also have direct effects on the natural systems, in the form of non-climate stresses such as changes in land use leading to deforestation and land degradation.

Figure 2. Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework for Analysing Climate Change and Sustainable Development linkages

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Source: Adapted from IPCC 2001a.

To summarise, the climate and sustainable development domains interact in a dynamic cycle, characterised by significant time delays. Both impacts and emissions, for example, are linked in complex ways to


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underlying socio-economic and technological development paths. Adaptation reduces the impact of climate stresses on human and natural systems, while mitigation lowers potential greenhouse gas emissions. Development paths strongly affect the capacity to both adapt to and mitigate climate change in any region. In this way adaptation and mitigation strategies are dynamically connected with changes in the climate system and the prospects for ecosystem adaptation, food production, and long- term economic development.

Thus climate change impacts are part of the larger question of how complex social, economic, and environmental sub-systems interact and shape prospects for sustainable development. There are multiple links. Economic development affects ecosystem balance and, in turn, is affected by the state of the ecosystem. Poverty can be both a result and a cause of environmental degradation. Material- and energy-intensive life styles and continued high levels of consumption supported by non-renewable resources, as well as rapid population growth are not likely to be consistent with sustainable development paths. Similarly, extreme socio-economic inequality within communities and between nations may undermine the social cohesion that would promote sustainability and make policy responses more effective. At the same time, socio-economic and technology policy decisions made for non-climate-related reasons have significant implications for climate policy and climate change impacts, as well as for other environmental issues. In addition, critical impact thresholds, and vulnerability to climate change impacts, are directly connected to environmental, social and economic conditions, and institutional capacity.

3.2 Economic, social and environmental risks arising from climate change

For a variety of reasons, decision-makers are beginning to show more interest in the assessment of how serious a threat climate change poses to the future basis for improving human welfare [Munasinghe 2000; Munasinghe and Swart 2000].

First, from the economic viewpoint, projected climate change will have diverse effects, but the larger the changes and rate of change in climate, the more the adverse effects predominate (IPCC 2001b, p.67). In its simplest form, the economic efficiency viewpoint will seek to maximise the net benefits (or outputs of goods and services) from the use of the global resource represented by the atmosphere. Broadly speaking, this implies that the stock of atmospheric assets, which provide a sink function for GHGs, needs to be maintained at an optimum level. A target level defined mainly on the basis of economic principles would be set at the point where the marginal avoided damages arising from impacts and adaptation are equal to the marginal GHG mitigation costs. The underlying principles are based on optimality and the economically efficient use of a scarce resource, i.e., the global atmosphere.

Second, from the social perspective, existing evidence demonstrates that poorer nations and disadvantaged groups within nations may be especially vulnerable to climate change [Clarke and Munasinghe 1994; Banuri 1998; IPCC 2001a]. The historical effects of large scale regional phenomena like El Nino could provide some indication of the likely future impacts of climate change on a planetary scale (Munasinghe 2001). Climate change is likely to exacerbate inequities due to the uneven distribution of the costs of damage, as well as of necessary adaptation and mitigation efforts – such differential effects could occur both among and within countries. However, adaptation and mitigation response measures can take into account, and seek to help address, equity issues (IPCC 2001a).

Third. the environmental viewpoint also draws attention to the fact that increasing anthropogenic emissions and accumulations of GHGs might significantly perturb a critical global sub-system – the atmosphere [UNFCCC 1993]. Environmental sustainability will depend on several factors, including climate change intensity (e.g., magnitude and frequency of shocks), system vulnerability (e.g., extent of impact damage); and system resilience (i.e., ability to recover from impacts). Changes in the global climate (e.g., mean


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temperature, precipitation, etc.) could also threaten the stability of a range of critical, vulnerable, and inter-linked physical, ecological and social systems and subsystems [IPCC 1996b and 2001].

3.3 Vulnerability, resilience, adaptation and adaptive capacity

As discussed above, durability criteria or constraints focus on maintaining the quality and quantity dimensions of asset stocks. In the area of climate change, the various forms of capital are viewed as a bulwark that decreases vulnerability to external shocks and reduces irreversible harm, rather than mere accumulations of assets that produce economic outputs. System resilience, vigour, organisation and ability to adapt will depend dynamically on the capital endowment, as well as on the magnitude and rate of change of a shock.

It is useful at this stage to define certain terms more precisely, in the context of climate change (IPCC 2001a). Vulnerability is the extent to which human and natural systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change. It is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation, as well as the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the system concerned. Resilience is the degree of change a system can undergo, without changing state. Adaptation refers to the adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to climate change stresses and their effects, which moderate damage and exploit opportunities for benefit (e.g., building higher sea walls, or developing drought- and salt-resistant crops). Different types of adaptation include anticipatory versus reactive adaptation, private versus public adaptation, and autonomous versus planned adaptation. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change.

Strengthening adaptive capacity is a key policy option, especially in the case of the most vulnerable and disadvantaged groups. Adaptive capacity itself will depend on the availability and distribution of economic, natural, social, and human resources; institutional structure and access to decision making processes; information, public awareness and perceptions; menu of technology and policy options; ability to spread risk; etc. (Smit et al. 2001; Yohe and Tol 2001). In turn, performance across these variables is likely to be linked to patterns of economic and social development in a given country or specific location.

3.4 Mitigation and mitigative capacity [to replace previous text with this heading

The IPCC recently elaborated six different reference scenarios that show a wide variety of alternative development pathways over the next century, each yielding a very different pattern of GHG emissions (IPCC 2000). Lower emission scenarios require less carbon-intensive energy resource development than in the past. In the past decade, progress on GHG emission reduction technologies has been faster than anticipated. Improved methods of land use (especially forests) offer significant potential for carbon sequestration. Although not necessarily permanent, such methods might allow time for more effective mitigation techniques to be developed. Ultimately, mitigation options will be determined by differences in the distribution of natural, technological, and financial resources, as well as mitigation costs across nations and generations (IPCC 2001a).

Although the path to a low emission future will vary by country, the IPCC results indicate that appropriate socio-economic changes combined with known mitigation technology and policy options could help to achieve a range of atmospheric CO2 stabilisation levels around 550 ppmv or less, in the next 100 years. Social learning and innovation, and changes in institutional structure could play an especially important role. Policy options that yield no-regrets outcomes will help to reduce GHG emissions at no or negative social cost. However, the incremental costs of stabilising almospheric CO2concentrations over the next century rise sharply as the target concentration level falls from 750 ppmv to 450 ppmv.


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Integrating climate policies with non-climate national sustainable development strategy will increase the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. However, there are many technical, social, behavioural, cultural, political, economic, and institutional barriers to implementing mitigation options within countries. Coordinating actions across countries and sectors could reduce mitigations costs, and limit concerns about competitiveness, conflicts over international trade regulations, and carbon leakage. To summarize, early actions including mitigation measures, technology development, and better scientific knowledge about climate change, will increase the possibilities for stabilising atmospheric GHG concentrations.

The effectiveness of future mitigation could be improved by strengthening mitigative capacity (i.e., the social, political and economic structures and conditions required for mitigation). The mitigative capacity among nations is inevitably varied and suggests that more research and analytic capacity is needed in developing countries. Increases in mitigative capacity could allow climate change considerations to be more effectively integrated with action to address other (non-climate) sustainable development challenges in a manner that effectively limits GHG emissions over time, while maximising the developmental co-benefits of mitigative actions. Such a ‘win-win’ approach is elaborated in Example 2 (Figure 5) below.


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4. TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT

Some important tools that may be used for analysis and assessment are summarised below. More details are provided in Annex 1.

4.1 Action impact matrix (AIM)

The Action Impact Matrix (AIM) is a tool to facilitate the sustainability of development by analysing economic, environmental and social interactions of various development policies. Global environmental problems, such as climate change, should be a key aspect of the assessment. For example, macroeconomic policies adopted routinely by national policy makers often have significant environmental and social impacts (Munasinghe 2002). In particular, such policies shape the development paths of nations, which in turn affect not only the severity of future climate change impacts, but also vulnerability to climate change, as well as adaptive and mitigative capacities.

The AIM approach will help to find ‘win-win’ policies and projects, which not only achieve conventional macroeconomic objectives (like growth), but also make local and national development efforts more sustainable. With respect to climate change, the approach can identify key linkages between development efforts and climate change issues like vulnerability, impacts (including changes in GHG emission levels), mitigation and adaptation. It would help to identify development paths that embed national climate change policies in the overall sustainable development strategy.

The process of preparing the matrix encourages stakeholder participation in identifying priority issues and relevant data, posing the appropriate questions, interpreting the results, and formulating and implementing policy outcomes. In particular, it facilitates consensus building among the development, climate change, and environmental communities.

The AIM itself promotes an integrated view, meshing development decisions with priority economic, environmental and social impacts. Usually, the rows of the table list the main development interventions (both policies and projects), while the columns indicate key sustainable development issues and impacts (including climate change vulnerability). Thus the elements or cells in the matrix help to:

• identify explicitly the key issues and linkages; • focus the analysis on the most important vulnerabilities and issues; and • suggest action priorities and remedies.

At the same time, the organisation of the overall matrix facilitates the tracing of impacts via complex pathways, as well as the coherent articulation of the links among a range of development actions - both policies and projects. More details are provided in Example 2.


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4.2 Indicators

It will be important to monitor if and how climate change or climate change policies may affect stocks of natural, social and economic capital in different regions of the world. The risks to natural and economic capital are well documented in the recent IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC 2001a - Ch.19 of WGII; IPCC 2001b - Section 3), whereas the social dimension is more difficult to measure and has only received attention in the past few years. For example, recent OECD work advances definitions of human capital to encompass human well-being - measured through education and health indicators and social capital as networks of shared norms, values and understanding that facilitates co-operation within and between groups (OECD 2001). However these concepts of social capital have not yet been systematically applied in the assessment of climate change impacts or of climate policies. Nevertheless, these different types of stocks of assets are central to the optimality and durability approaches, as well as to the capacity to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and multi-dimensional indicators could be useful in assessing policy options. Annex 1 (Section A1.1) summarises the literature which describe a wide variety of indicators that are already in use. It may be possible to adapt some of these for use in the assessment of connections between development and climate policies.

4.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one well-known example of a single value approach, which seeks to assign economic values to the various consequences of an economic activity. The resulting costs and benefits are combined into a single decision making criterion like the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), or benefit-cost ratio (BCR). Useful variants include cost effectiveness, and least cost based methods. Both benefits and costs are defined as the difference between what would occur with and without the project being implemented. The economic efficiency viewpoint usually requires that shadow prices (or opportunity costs) be used to measure costs and benefits. All significant impacts and externalities need to be valued as economic benefits and costs (Box 2). However, since many environmental and social effects may not be easy to value in monetary terms, CBA is used in practice mainly as a tool to assess economic and financial outcomes. Annex 1 (Section A1.2) provides further details.

Box 2. Techniques for economically valuing environmental impacts

TYPE OF MARKET

BEHAVIOUR TYPE

Conventional market Implicit market Constructed market

Actual Behaviour Effect on Production Travel Cost Artificial market

Effect on Health Wage Differences

Defensive or Preventive Costs

Property Values

Proxy Marketed Goods

Intended Behaviour

Replacement Cost Shadow Project

Contingent Valuation


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Box 2 (Cont.) Techniques for economically valuing environmental impacts

Effect on Production. An investment decision often has environmental impacts, which in turn affect the quantity, quality or production costs of a range of productive outputs that may be valued readily in economic terms.

Effect on Health. This approach is based on health impacts caused by pollution and environmental degradation. One practical measure related to the effect on production is the value of human output lost due to ill health or premature death. The loss of potential net earnings (called the human capital technique) is one proxy for foregone output, to which the costs of health care or prevention may be added.

Defensive or Preventive Costs. Often, costs may be incurred to mitigate the damage caused by an adverse environmental impact. For example, if the drinking water is polluted, extra purification may be needed. Then, such additional defensive or preventive expenditures (ex-post) could be taken as a minimum estimate of the benefits of mitigation.

Replacement Cost and Shadow Project. If an environmental resource that has been impaired is likely to be replaced in the future by another asset that provides equivalent services, then the costs of replacement may be used as a proxy for the environmental damage -- assuming that the benefits from the original resource are at least as valuable as the replacement expenses. A shadow project is usually designed specifically to offset the environmental damage caused by another project. For example, if the original project was a dam that inundated some forest land, then the shadow project might involve the replanting of an equivalent area of forest, elsewhere.

Travel Cost. This method seeks to determine the demand for a recreational site (e.g., number of visits per year to a park), as a function of variables like price, visitor income, and socio-economic characteristics. The price is usually the sum of entry fees to the site, costs of travel, and opportunity cost of time spent. The consumer surplus associated with the demand curve provides an estimate of the value of the recreational site in question.

Property Value. In areas where relatively competitive markets exist for land, it is possible to decompose real estate prices into components attributable to different characteristics like house and lot size, air and water quality. The marginal willing-to-pay (WTP) for improved local environmental quality is reflected in the increased price of housing in cleaner neighborhoods. This method has limited application in developing countries, since it requires a competitive housing market, as well as sophisticated data and tools of statistical analysis.

Wage Differences. As in the case of property values, the wage differential method attempts to relate changes in the wage rate to environmental conditions, after accounting for the effects of all factors other than environment (e.g., age, skill level, job responsibility, etc.) that might influence wages.

Proxy Marketed Goods. This method is useful when an environmental good or service has no readily determined market value, but a close substitute exists which does have a competitively determined price. In such a case, the market price of the substitute may be used as a proxy for the value of the environmental resource.

Artificial Market. Such markets are constructed for experimental purposes, to determine consumer WTP for a good or service. For example, a home water purification kit might be marketed at various price levels, or access to a game reserve may be offered on the basis of different admission fees, thereby facilitating the estimation of values.

Contingent Valuation. This method puts direct questions to individuals to determine how much they might be willingness to pay (WTP) for an environmental resource, or how much compensation they would be willing-to-accept (WTA) if they were deprived of the same resource. The contingent valuation method (CVM) is more effective when the respondents are familiar with the environmental good or service (e.g., water quality) and have adequate information on which to base their preferences. Recent studies indicate that CVM, cautiously and rigorously applied, could provide rough estimates of value that would be helpful in economic decision making, especially when other valuation methods were unavailable.

Source : Munasinghe [1993].


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4.4 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) or multi-objective decision-making is particularly useful in situations when a single criterion approach like CBA falls short – especially where significant environmental and social impacts cannot be assigned monetary values (see Annex 1, Section A1.3). In MCA, desirable objectives are specified and corresponding attributes or indicators are identified. Unlike in CBA, the actual measurement of indicators does not have to be in monetary terms – i.e., different environmental and social indicators may be developed, side by side with economic costs and benefits. Thus, more explicit recognition is given to the fact that a variety of both monetary and non-monetary objectives and indicators may influence policy decisions. MCA provides techniques for comparing and ranking different outcomes, even though a variety of indicators are used.

4.5 Sustainable Development Assessment (SDA)

Sustainable development assessment (SDA) is an important tool to ensure balanced analysis of both development and sustainability concerns. The ‘economic’ component of SDA is based on conventional economic and financial analysis (including cost benefit analysis, as described earlier). The other two key components are environmental and social assessment (EA and SA) – e.g., see World Bank 1998. Poverty assessment is often interwoven with SDA. Economic, environmental and social analyses need to be integrated and harmonised within SDA. Since traditional decision making relies heavily on economics, a first step towards such an integration would be the systematic incorporation of environmental and social concerns into the economic policy framework of human society (see Annex 1, Section A1.4).


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5. ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

The concepts outlined above are highlighted in practical examples outlined below. These case studies provide additional insights into the potential convergence between optimality and durability approaches, and the practical use of the various analytical tools, in the context of climate change and natural resource management problem-solving.

5.1 Transnational scale: climate change policy objectives

Human-induced climate change is a global environmental problem that will have impacts at the local, regional and (potentially) global levels. Successfully limiting the pace and extent of the harmful effects of climate change will require international co-operation. The first example examines the interplay of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation, with optimality and durability based approaches in determining global GHG emission levels [Munasinghe 2001]. GHG concentrations should “be stabilised at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner” (Article 2, UNFCCC 1993).

Example 1: Setting global objectives for climate change co-operation

Under an economic optimising framework, the ideal solution would be to estimate two curves associated with different GHG emission profiles:

a) the marginal avoided damages (MAD) which depends on climate change impacts and adaptation costs; and

b) the long-run marginal abatement costs (MAC) based on mitigation efforts.

The MAD and MAC curves are shown in Figure 3(c), where the error bands on the curves indicate measurement uncertainties (IPCC 1996c).

The optimisation approach indicates that the desirable emission level would be determined at the point where future benefits (in terms of climate change damage avoided by reducing one unit of GHG emissions) are just equal to the corresponding costs (of mitigation measures required to reduce that unit of GHG emissions), i.e., MAD = MAC at point ROP.

"Durable" strategies become more relevant when we recognise that MAC and/or MAD might be poorly quantified and uncertain. Figure 3(b) assumes that MAC is better defined than MAD. Here, MAC is determined using techno-economic least cost analysis – an optimising approach. Next, the target emissions are set on the basis of the affordable safe minimum standard (at RAM), which is the upper limit on costs that


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will still avoid unacceptable socio-economic disruption. This line of reasoning takes into consideration the capability of social and economic systems to absorb the shock of the financial burden of mitigation, and is closer to the durability approach.

Figure 3. Determining Global Abatement Targets based on different approaches: A) absolute standard; B) affordable standard; C) cost-benefit optimum

0

G H G E m i s s i o n R e d u c t i o n

0


( A )

• R A S

Z o n e o f U n a c c e p t a b l e R i s k

Z o n e o f A c c e p t a b l e R i s k

0


( C )

•

R P • R O P

M A C

M A D

•

( B ) • R A M

A c c e p t a b l e A b a t e m e n t C o s t s E x c e s s i v e

A b a t e m e n t C o s t s

Source: Adapted from IPCC 1996c, Figure 5.10.

Finally, Figure 3(a) indicates an even more uncertain world, where neither MAC nor MAD is defined. Here, the emission target is established on the basis of an absolute standard (RAS) or safe limit, which would avoid an unacceptably high risk of impact damage to ecological (and/or social) systems. This last approach places greater emphasis on vulnerability, impacts and adaptation, and would be more in line with the durability concept.


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5.2 National-economy-wide scale: macroeconomic management

Conventional economic valuation of environmental impacts is a key step in incorporating the results of project level environmental assessment into economic decision making – e.g., cost-benefit analysis (see also Annex 1, Section A1.4). At the macroeconomic level, recent work has focused on incorporating environmental considerations such as depletion of natural resources and pollution damage into the system of national accounts [UN Statistical Office 1993; Atkinson et al. 1997]. These efforts have yielded useful new indicators and measures, such as the system of environmental and economic accounts (SEEA), green gross national product, and genuine savings, which adjust conventional macroeconomic measures to allow for environmental effects.

Meanwhile, national policy-makers routinely make many key macro-level decisions that could have (often inadvertent) environmental and social impacts, which are far more significant than the effects of local economic activities. These pervasive and powerful measures are aimed at achieving economic development goals like accelerated growth – which invariably have a high priority in national agendas. Typically, many macroeconomic policies seek to induce rapid growth, which in turn could potentially result in greater environmental harm or impoverishment of already disadvantaged groups. In particular, such policies shape the development paths of nations, which in turn affect the vulnerability to climate change, as well as adaptive and mitigative capacities. Therefore, more attention needs to be paid to such economy-wide policies, whose environmental and social linkages have not been adequately explored in the past [Munasinghe and Cruz 1994].

Clearly, sustainable development strategies (including options that reduce vulnerability and strengthen adaptive and mitigative capacities), need to be made more consistent with other national development policies. Such strategies are more likely to be effective than isolated technological or policy options. In particular, the highest priority needs to be given to finding any ‘win-win policies’, which not only achieve conventional macroeconomic objectives, but also make local and national development efforts more sustainable, and address climate change issues. Such policies could help to build support for sustainable climate change strategies among the traditional decision making community, and conversely make climate specialists more sensitive to shorter term macroeconomic and development goals. They would reduce the potential for conflict between two powerful current trends – the growth oriented, market based economic reform process, and protection of the global environment.

5.2.1 Scope of policies and range of impacts

The most important economic management tools currently in common use are economy-wide reforms, which include structural adjustment packages. Economy-wide (or country-wide) policies consist of both sectoral and macroeconomic policies that have widespread effects throughout the economy. Sectoral measures mainly involve a variety of economic instruments, including pricing in key sectors (for example, energy or agriculture) and broad sector-wide taxation or subsidy programs (for example, agricultural production subsidies, and industrial investment incentives). Macroeconomic measures are even more sweeping, ranging from exchange rate, interest rate, and wage policies, to trade liberalisation, privatisation, and similar programs. Since space limitations preclude a comprehensive review of interactions between economy-wide policies and sustainable development, we briefly examine several examples that provide a flavour of the possibilities involved (for details, see Munasinghe 1996; Jepma and Munasinghe 1998).

On the positive side, liberalising policies such as the removal of price distortions and promotion of market incentives have the potential to improve economic growth rates, while increasing the value of output per unit of pollution emitted (i.e., so called ‘win-win’ outcomes). For example, improving property rights and strengthening incentives for better land management not only yield economic gains and reduce


25

deforestation of open access lands (e.g., due to ‘slash and burn’ agriculture), but also help to reduce vulnerability, improve the adaptive capacity of ecosystems, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

At the same time, growth-inducing economy-wide policies could lead to increased environmental damages and greater vulnerability to climate change, unless the macro-reforms are complemented by additional environmental and social measures. Such negative impacts are invariably unintended and occur when some broad policy changes are undertaken while other hidden or neglected economic and institutional imperfections persist [Munasinghe and Cruz 1994]. In general, the remedy does not require reversal of the original reforms, but rather the implementation of additional complementary measures (both economic and non-economic) that reduce climate change vulnerability and increase adaptive and mitigative capacities. For example, export promotion measures and currency devaluation might increase the profitability of timber exports (see the example below). This in turn, could further accelerate deforestation that was already under way due to low stumpage fees and open access to forest lands. Establishing property rights and increasing timber charges would reduce deforestation, thereby diminishing vulnerability to climate change and improving both adaptation and mitigation prospects, without interrupting the macroeconomic benefits of trade liberalisation.

Similarly, market-oriented liberalisation in a country could lead to economic expansion and the growth of wasteful resource-intensive activities in certain sectors – if such growth was associated with subsidised resource prices. Such a situation is reported in a case study of Morocco, where irrigation water is the scarce resource affected by economic expansion (Munasinghe 1996). Eliminating the relevant resource price subsidy could help to reduce local water scarcities and reduce vulnerability to future climate change, while enhancing macroeconomic gains. Other countrywide policies could influence adaptation to climate change, negatively or positively. For example, national policies that encouraged population movement into low-lying coastal areas might increase their vulnerability to future impacts of sea level rise. On the other hand, government actions to protect citizens from natural disasters – such as investing in safer physical infrastructure or strengthening the social resilience of poorer communities – could help to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events associated with future climate change [Clarke and Munasinghe 1995].

In this context, systematic assessment of economic-environmental-social interactions helps to formulate effective sustainable development policies, by linking and articulating these activities explicitly. In particular, it is important to identify those systems, sectors and communities that are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, especially if they are already under threat due to existing national policies. Implementation of such an approach would be facilitated by constructing a simple Action Impact Matrix or AIM, as described below in Example 2 [Munasinghe and Cruz 1994].

Example 2: Action impact matrix (AIM) for policy analysis

A simple example of the Action Impact Matrix (AIM) – is shown in Table 1, although an actual AIM would be very much larger and more detailed [Munasinghe 1992, 1996]. The far left column of the Table lists examples of the main development interventions (both policies and projects), while the top row indicates some typical sustainable development issues - including climate change vulnerability and adaptive and mitigative capacity. As indicated earlier, the elements or cells in the matrix help to explicitly identify the key issues and linkages, focus the analysis on the most important vulnerabilities and adaptation issues, and suggest action priorities and remedies. At the same time, the organisation of the overall matrix facilitates the tracing of impacts, as well as the coherent articulation of the links among development policies and projects.


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Table 1. A simplified preliminary Action Impact Matrix (AIM)1

Impacts On Key Sustainable Development Issues Activity/Policy

Main (Economic)

Objective (A)

Land Degradation

& Biodiversity Loss (B)

Water Scarcity & Pollution

(C)

Resettle-ment & Social Effects

(D)

Climate Change Effects (eg., vulnerability,

impacts and adaptation; and mitigation)

(E) Macro-economic & Sectoral Policies

Macroeconomic and sectoral improvements

Positive impacts due to removal of distortions Negative impacts mainly due to remaining constraints

Exchange Rate (1)

Improve trade balance and economic growth

(-H) (deforest

open-access areas)

(-M) (more vulnerable, less adaptive & mitigative capacity)

Water Pricing (2)

More efficient water use and economic efficiency

(+M) (water use efficiency)

(+M) (less vulnerable, better

adaptive capacity)

Others (3)

Complementary Measures and Remedies2

Specific socio-economic and environmental gains

Enhance positive impacts and mitigate negative impacts (above) of broader macroeconomic and sectoral policies

Market Based (4)

(+M) (pollution tax)

(+L) (less vulnerable)

Non-Market Based

(5)

(+H) (property

rights)

(+M) (public sector

accountability)

Investment Projects

Improve effectiveness of investments

Investment decisions made more consistent with broader policy and institutional framework

Project 1 (Hydro Dam)

(6)

(-H) (inundate forests)

(-M) (displace people)

(+M, -L) (less fossil fuel use,

more vulnerable)

Project 2 (Re-afforest and relocate) (7)

(+H) (replant forests)

(+M) (relocate people)

(+M) (absorb carbon, less

vulnerable)

Other Projects

Source: adapted from Munasinghe and Cruz [1994]. 1 Notes: 1. A few examples of typical policies and projects as well as illustrative impact assessments are indicated. + and - signify beneficial and harmful impacts, while H and M indicate high and moderate intensity. The AIM process helps to focus on the highest priority economic social and environmental issues.

2. Commonly used market-based measures include effluent charges, tradable emission permits, emission taxes or subsidies, bubbles and offsets (emission banking), stumpage fees, royalties, user fees, deposit-refund schemes, performance bonds, and taxes on products (such as fuel taxes). Non-market based measures comprise regulations and laws specifying environmental standard (such as ambient standards, emission standards, and technology standards) which permit or limit certain actions (‘dos’ and ‘don’ts’).

A stepwise procedure, based on readily available data, has been used effectively to develop the AIM in several country studies [Munasinghe and Cruz 1994]. This process has facilitated the participation of key stakeholders in identifying issues, analysing data, and formulating and implementing policy options. It has helped build the consensus and harmonise views, especially between the development and climate


27

communities. A good starting point would be basic development documents such as the poverty reduction strategy paper (PSRP), national strategy for sustainable development (NSSD), national agenda 21 plan, and millennium development goals (MDG); as well as environmental reports like the National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP), the National Communications to the UNFCCC, and the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA).1

A typical AIM exercise might begin with a group of persons concerned with climate change coming together to determine the most important areas of vulnerability and impacts. These topics would be organised into a large ‘vulnerabilities table’ (Table 2). For example, suppose that the first column indicated ‘deforestation and biodiversity loss’ as a high-risk issue. The second column would set out the status as measured by relevant bio-physical indicators such as the land area under forest cover or information on threatened species. The third column could provide socio-economic information, including the numbers of persons whose livelihoods were at risk, their income levels, the economic value of forest loss, and so on. Finally, the fourth column might summarise the key underlying causes or drivers that might increase climate change vulnerability - including pricing policies (like inadequate stumpage fees), institutional factors (like open access forests), and other pressures (like the landless population). A national vulnerabilities table would summarise information about many other risk areas, like water resource scarcity, land degradation, and damage to coastal zones.

Table 2. Typical Elements from a Vulnerabilities Table

ISSUE BIO-PHYSICAL IMPACTS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS

CAUSES AND DRIVERS

Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss

Area under forest cover, threatened species, etc.

Stakeholder income levels, livelihoods at risk, value of forest loss, etc.

Landless population, open access to forests, lack of stumpage fees, etc.

The next task would be the preparation of a ‘development activities table’ (Table 3). The first column of this table would contain major development goals and policies, such as an exchange rate devaluation (to improve the balance of payments). The second column might indicate the current status from a development perspective – in the forest sector, typical effects might include balance of payments improvement due to greater timber exports, increased timber demand for exports and local construction, higher deforestation rate, illegal felling, and ‘slash and burn’ agriculture. The third column could contain environmental and climate related implications, such as threats to the adaptive capacity of forest areas, soil erosion, and loss of watersheds. The fourth column would set out ongoing or proposed remedies, including restricted access to forests, better enforcement, higher stumpage fees, and re-afforestation. A normal development activities table would summarise information on many such major policy areas, dealing with acceleration of economic growth, import substitution, fiscal and monetary balance, industrialisation, agricultural self-sufficiency, energy development, etc.

1 Except for MDG, these documents are country-specific reports developed in consultation with the development assistance community, which provide a broad review of development status, strategies and plans, as well as the articulation between macro, sectoral and sub-sectoral issues and policies. For example, the PRSPs focus on low-income countries, and stem from the World Bank-IMF initiative on heavily indebted poor countries. The MDG are internationally agreed objectives, including eradicating extreme poverty; achieving universal primary education; promoting gender equality and empowering women; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and other diseases; ensuring environmental sustainability; and developing a global partnership for development.


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Table 3. Typical Elements from a Development Activities Table

DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND POLICIES

DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS

ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE IMPACTS

REMEDIES

Exchange rate devaluation to improve balance of payments

Forest Sector Higher timber demand for exports and local construction, increased deforestation, illegal timber felling, ‘slash and burn’ agriculture, etc.

Adaptive capacity of forests, watershed loss, soil erosion, etc.

Restrict forest access, better enforcement, higher stumpage fees, more re-afforestation, etc.

The AIM would be put together by bringing all stakeholders together, to integrate the information in the two tables prepared earlier. Table 3 shows how a simple AIM might be organised, by combining information on development activities and vulnerabilities.

5.2.2 Screening and problem identification

One of the early objectives of the AIM-based process is to help in screening and problem identification – by preparing a preliminary matrix that identifies broad relationships, and provides a qualitative idea of the magnitudes of the impacts. Thus, the preliminary AIM would be used to prioritise the most important links between policies and their sustainability impacts (especially climate effects). As mentioned earlier, row (1) of Table 3 shows how a currency devaluation aimed at improving the trade balance, may make timber exports more profitable and lead to deforestation of open access forests. Column (A) indicates a negative local environmental side effect involving severe land degradation and biodiversity loss. In the same row, column (D) shows negative climate change effects, including greater vulnerability etc. Some air pollution and GHG emissions due to burning of wood might also occur, although this is not indicated here. Potential remedial policies are shown lower down in column (A) – e.g., complementary measures to strengthen property rights and restrict access to forest areas, which would prevent the deforestation. As shown in column (D), such steps would reverse the negative climate change effects.

A second example shown in row (2) involves raising (subsidised) water prices to reflect marginal supply costs - to improve the efficiency of water use, and thereby have the additional positive effect of decreasing water scarcity [column (B)] and reducing vulnerability to future climate change [column (D)]. A complementary measure indicated in row (4), column (B) consists of adding water pollution taxes to water supply costs, which will help to reduce both water pollution and damage to human and ecological health, while reducing vulnerability to climate change. As shown in row (5), column (B), improving competition and public sector accountability will reinforce favourable responses to these price incentives, by reducing the ability of inefficient firms to pass on the increased costs of water to consumers or to transfer their losses to the government.

The third example involves a major hydroelectric project, shown in row (6), which has two adverse impacts (inundation of forested areas and village dwellings), as well as one net positive impact (the replacement of thermal power generation, which would reduce air pollution and GHG emissions – despite potential methane emissions from inundated vegetation). A re-afforestation project coupled with resettlement schemes, as indicated in row (7), would help to address the negative impacts.


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This matrix-based approach therefore encourages the systematic articulation and co-ordination of policies and projects to make development more sustainable. Based on readily available data, it would be possible to develop such an initial matrix as the organising framework for case studies in the OECD project.

5.2.3 Analysis and remediation

This process may be developed further to assist in analysis and remediation. For example, more detailed analyses and modelling may be carried out for those matrix elements in the preliminary AIM that had been already identified as representing high priority linkages between development activities and climate change vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation. This, in turn, would lead to a more refined and updated AIM, which would help to quantify impacts and formulate additional policy measures to enhance positive linkages and mitigate negative ones.

The types of more detailed analyses, which could help to determine the final matrix would be case specific, and depend on planning goals and available data and resources. They may range from fairly simple methods to rather sophisticated economic, ecological and social models. The flow of the analytical process, from broad national-level development objectives to detailed local level vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation, are summarised in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Assessing the link between development plans and climate policy objectives through the natural resources management window

D E V . P L A N S (e .g ., N S S D , P R S P )

A c tionIm pa c tM a tr ix

N a tu ralR e sou rce

M a n a g em e n t

V u ln era b i lity , A d a p ta tio n to C lim ate C h a n g e

im p a c ts o fd e ve lop m e n t p la no n k ey se c to rsv uln era b le toc lim a te cha n g e

{S inks , m itig a tion

& ada p ta tio n

Sca

le Is

sues

N a t’l

L oc al

Source: OECD (2002).


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5.2.4 Using the AIM to reconcile development and climate change objectives

Given that the majority of the world population lives under conditions of absolute poverty, a climate change strategy that unduly constrained growth prospects in those areas would be more unattractive. The AIM based approach can help to ensure the sustainability of long term growth by reconciling climate change and development objectives [Munasinghe et al. 2001].

Such a ‘win-win’ outcome is illustrated in Figure 5, which shows how a country’s GHG emissions might vary with its level of development. One would expect carbon emissions to rise more rapidly during the early stages of development (along AB), and begin to level off only when per capita incomes are higher (along BC). A typical developing country would be at a point such as B on the curve, and an industrialized nation might be at C. The key point is that if the developing countries were to follow the growth path of the industrialized world, then atmospheric concentrations of GHGs would soon rise to dangerous levels. The risks arising from exceeding the safe limit (shaded area) could be avoided by adopting sustainable development strategies that would (a) reduce GHG emissions in industrialized countries along a path like CE; and (b) permit developing countries to progress along a path such as BD (and eventually DE). The Kyoto Protocol favours this approach, by placing the primary obligation for emissions reduction on Annex I (industrialized) countries, while providing incentives for non-Annex I (developing) nations to also participate in mitigation through the clean development mechanism (CDM).

Figure 5. Environmental Risk versus Development Level

Env

iron

men

tal R

isk

(e.g

. per

cap

ita

GH

G e

mis

sion

s)

Development Level (e.g. per capita income)

Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1998).

It would be fruitful to encourage a more proactive approach whereby the developing countries could learn from the past experiences of the industrialized world – by adopting ‘win-win’ sustainable development strategies that incorporate climate change measures, thus enabling them to follow development paths such as BDE shown in the Figure [Munasinghe 1998]. The emphasis is on identifying policies that will help de-link carbon emissions and growth in both developed and developing countries, with the curve in Figure 5 serving mainly as a useful metaphor or organizing framework for policy analysis.

This approach also illustrates the complementarity of the optimal and durable approaches discussed earlier. It has been shown that the higher path ABC in the Figure could be caused by economic imperfections


31

which make private decisions deviate from socially optimal ones [Munasinghe 1998]. Thus the adoption of corrective policies that reduce such divergences from optimality and thereby reduce GHG emissions per unit of economic output, would facilitate movement along the lower path ABD. Concurrently, the durability viewpoint suggests that flattening the peak of environmental damage (at C) would be especially desirable to avoid exceeding the safe limit or threshold representing dangerous accumulations of GHGs (shaded area in the figure). Thus, the path BDE (both more socially optimal and durable) could be viewed as a sustainable development ‘tunnel’ [Munasinghe 1998].

Several authors have econometrically estimated the relationship between GHG emissions and per capita income using cross-country data and found curves with varying shapes and turning points [Holtz-Eakin and Selden 1995; Sengupta 1996; Cole et al. 1997; Unruh and Moomaw 1998]. One reported outcome is an inverted U-shape (called the environmental Kuznet’s curve or EKC) – like the curve ABCE in the Figure.

5.3 Sub-national scale: energy sector planning and forest ecosystem management

At the sub-national scale, sustainable development issues arise in various forms. In this section, we consider an example dealing with issues in the important energy sector of the Sri Lankan economy.

Example 3: Improving energy sector decision-making in Sri Lanka

Actions that affect an entire economic sector or region of a country can have significant and pervasive environmental and social impacts. Thus typically, policies in a given sector like energy have widespread impacts on other sectors of the economy. This requires an integrated, multi-sectoral analytic framework [Munasinghe 1990].

5.3.1 Sustainable energy development framework

A framework for sustainable energy decision making is depicted in Figure 6. The middle column of the Figure shows the core of the framework comprising an integrated multilevel analysis that can accommodate issues ranging from the global scale down to the local or project level. At the top level, individual countries constitute elements of an international matrix. Economic and environmental conditions imposed at this global level constitute exogenous inputs or constraints on national level decision-makers. Typical examples of such external constraints include emerging agreements under the UNFCCC, which have implications for both adaptation and mitigation.


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Figure 6. Framework for sustainable energy development

Source: adapted from Munasinghe [1990].

The next level in the hierarchy focuses on the multi-sectoral national economy, of which the energy sector is one element. This level of the framework recognises that planning within the energy sector requires analysis of the links between that sector and the rest of the economy. At the third or sub-national level, we focus on the energy sector as a separate entity composed of sub-sectors such as electricity, petroleum products and so on. This permits detailed analysis, with special emphasis on interactions among different energy sub-sectors. Finally, the most disaggregate and lowest hierarchical level pertains to energy analysis within each of the energy sub-sectors. At this level, most of the detailed energy planning and implementation of projects is carried out by line institutions (both public and private).

In practice, the various levels of analysis merge and overlap considerably, requiring that inter-sectoral linkages should be carefully examined. Energy-economic-environmental-social interactions (represented by the vertical bar) tend to cut across all levels and need to be incorporated into the analysis as far as possible. Such interactions also provide important paths for incorporating environmental and social considerations into sustainable energy development policies.

5.3.2 Methodology

The incorporation of environmental and social externalities into decision making is particularly important in the electric power sector (see also Annex 1, Section A1.4). It is also clear that in order for


33

environmental and social concerns to play a real role in power sector decision making, one must address these issues early - at the sectoral and regional planning stages, rather than later at the stage of environmental and social assessment of individual projects. Many of the valuation techniques discussed earlier are most appropriate at the micro-level, and may therefore be very difficult to apply in situations involving choices among a potentially large number of technology, site, and mitigation options. Therefore, multi-criteria analysis (MCA) may be applied, since it allows for the appraisal of alternatives with differing objectives and varied costs and benefits, which are often assessed in differing units of measurement.

Such an approach was used by Meier and Munasinghe [1994] in a study of Sri Lanka, to demonstrate how externalities could be incorporated into power system planning in a systematic manner. Sri Lanka presently depends largely on hydro power for electricity generation, but over the next decade the main choices seem to be large coal- or oil-fired stations, or hydro plants whose economic returns and environmental impacts are increasingly unfavourable. In addition, there is a wide range of other options (such as wind power, increasing use of demand side management, and system efficiency improvements), that make decision making quite difficult - even in the absence of the environmental concerns. The study is relatively unique in its focus on system wide planning issues, as opposed to the more usual policy of assessing environmental concerns only at the project level after the strategic sectoral development decisions have already been made.

The methodology involves the following steps: (a) definition of the generation options and their analysis using sophisticated least-cost system planning models; (b) selection and definition of the attributes, selected to reflect planning objectives; (c) explicit economic valuation of those impacts for which valuation techniques can be applied with confidence - the resultant values are then added to the system costs to define the overall attribute relating to economic cost; (d) quantification of those attributes for which explicit economic valuation is inappropriate, but for which suitable quantitative impact scales can be defined; (e) translation of attribute value levels into value functions (known as "scaling"); (f) display of the trade-off space, to facilitate understanding of the trade-offs to be made in decision making; and (g) definition of a candidate list of options for further study; this also involves the important step of eliminating inferior options from further consideration.

5.3.3 Main results of Example 3

The main set of sectoral policy options examined included: (a) variations in the currently available mix of hydro, and thermal (coal and oil) plants, included; (b) demand side management (using the illustrative example of compact fluorescent lighting); (c) renewable energy options (using the illustrative technology of wind generation); (d) improvements in system efficiency (using more ambitious targets for transmission and distribution losses than the base case assumption of 12% by 1997); (e) clean coal technology (using pressurised fluidised bed combustion (PFBC) in a combined cycle mode as the illustrative technology); and (f) pollution control technology options (illustrated by a variety of fuel switching and pollution control options such as using imported low sulphur oil for diesels, and fitting coal burning power plants with flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) systems).

Great care needs to be exercised in selecting a limited number of key criteria or attributes, which normally reflect issues of national as well as local project level significance, and have implications for both adaptation and mitigation policies. To capture the potential impact on global warming, CO2 emissions were defined as the appropriate proxy. Three key indicators based on impacts on human beings, social systems, and ecological systems, were identified. Human health impacts were measured through population-weighted increments in both fine particulates and NOx attributable to each source. As an illustrative social impact, employment creation was used. To capture the potential biodiversity impacts, a composite biodiversity loss index was derived (Table 4).


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Table 4. Deriving a preliminary biodiversity index

Rank Ecosystem Relative biodiversity value (w)

1 Lowland wet evergreen forest 0.98

2 Lowland moist evergreen forest 0.98

3 Lower montane forest 0.90

4 Upper montane forest 0.90

5 Riverrine forest 0.75

6 Dry mixed evergreen forest 0.5

7 Villus 0.4

8 Mangroves 0.4

9 Thorn forest 0.3

10 Grasslands 0.3

11 Rubber lands 0.2

12 Home gardens 0.2

13 Salt marshes 0.1

14 Sand dunes 0.1

15 Coconut lands 0.01

Source: adapted from Meier and Munasinghe [1994].

We define Gi as the average biodiversity loss index value per unit of energy produced per year at hydro site i.

Gi = ∑ j (wj).( Aij)/ [Hydroelectric energy generated per year at site i] where Aij is the area of ecosystem type j at hydro site i, and wj is relative biodiversity value of ecosystem type j (as defined in Table 4).

Figure 7(a) illustrates a typical trade-off curve for biodiversity loss (see also, the earlier discussion on MCA in Annex 2, Section 1.3). The "best" solutions lie closest to the origin. The so-called trade-off curve is defined by the set of "non-inferior" solutions, representing the set of options that are better, regardless of the weights assigned to the different objectives. For example, on this curve, the option called “no hydro” is better than the option “wind”, in terms of both economic cost and biodiversity loss.


35

Figure 7. Trade-off curves for economic costs versus (a) biodiversity loss; and (b) health impacts

Source: Meier and Munasinghe 1994.

While most of the options have an index value that falls in the range of 50-100, the no hydro option has an essentially zero value, because the thermal projects that replace hydro plants in this option tend to lie at sites of poor bio-diversity value (either close to load centres or on the coast). Meanwhile, wind plants would require rather large land area, and their biodiversity loss index is higher. However, the vegetation in the area on the south coast (where the wind power plants would be located) has relatively low bio-diversity value, and therefore the overall bio-diversity impact of this option is small. In summary, the best options (on the trade-off curve) include the no hydro, and run-of-river hydro options that require essentially zero inundation. Note the extreme outlier at the top right hand corner, which is the Kukule hydro dam - it has a bio-diversity loss index (B = 530) that is an order of magnitude larger than for other options (B = 50 to 70).

(a)

(b)


36

A quite different trade-off curve was derived between health impacts and average incremental cost, as illustrated in Figure 7 (b). Note that the point "iresid" on the trade-off curve (which calls for the use of low sulphur imported fuel oil at diesel plants), is better than the use of flue gas desulphurisation systems (point "FGD") - in terms of both economic cost and environment.

5.3.4 Conclusions of Example 3

This example draws several useful conclusions. First, the results indicate that those impacts for which valuation techniques are relatively straightforward and well-established - such as valuing the opportunity costs of lost production from inundated land, or estimating the benefits of establishing fisheries in a reservoir - tend to be quite small in comparison to overall system costs, and their inclusion into the benefit-cost analysis does not materially change results. Second, even in the case where explicit valuation may be difficult, such as in the case of mortality and morbidity effects of air pollution, implicit valuation based on analysis of the trade-off curve can provide important guidance to decision-makers. Third, the example indicated that certain options were in fact clearly inferior, or clearly superior, to all other options when one examines all impacts simultaneously. For example, the high dam version of the Kukule hydro project can be safely excluded from all further consideration here, as a result of poor performance on all attribute scales (including the economic one). Fourth, the results indicate that it is possible to derive attribute scales that can be useful proxies for impacts that may be difficult to value. For example, use of the biodiversity loss index, and the population-weighted incremental ambient air pollution scale as a proxy for health impacts permitted a number of important conclusions that are independent of the specific economic value assigned to biodiversity loss and health effects, respectively.

Finally, with respect to the practical implications for planning, the study identified several specific recommendations on priority options, including (i) the need to systematically examine demand side management options, especially fluorescent lighting; (ii) the need to examine whether the present transmission and distribution loss reduction target of 12% ought to be further reduced; (iii) the need to examine the possibilities of pressurised fluidised bed combustion (PFBC) technology for coal power; (iv) replacement of some coal-fired power plants (on the South coast) by diesel units; and (v) the need to re-examine cooling system options for coal plants.

5.3.5 Local-project scale: Hydroelectric power

The procedures for conventional environmental and social assessment at the project/local level (which are now well accepted world wide), may be readily adapted to assess the environmental and social effects of micro-level activities [World Bank 1998]. The OECD [1994] has pioneered the ‘Pressure-State-Response’ framework to trace socio-economic-environment linkages. This P-S-R approach begins with the pressure (e.g., population growth), then seeks to determine the state of the environment (e.g., ambient pollutant concentration), and ends by identifying the policy response (e.g., pollution taxes). The focus here is on local pressures, but bearing in mind that climate change impacts would eventually exacerbate the local impacts – the examples are useful because the same analytical techniques may be applied to deal with the impacts of both local and global environmental drivers on key sustainable development indicators.

Specific methods for economic valuation of environmental and social impacts were described earlier (Box 2). The practical application of such techniques were illustrated in the previous example. When valuation is not feasible for certain impacts, MCA may be used.


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Example 4: Comparison of hydroelectric power projects

In this example, multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is used to compare hydroelectric power schemes (for details, see Morimoto et al.2000). The three main sustainable development issues that are considered comprise the economic costs of power generation, ecological costs of biodiversity loss, and social costs of resettlement.

The principal objective is to generate additional kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity to meet the growing demand for power in Sri Lanka. As explained earlier in the section on cost-benefit analysis (CBA), we assume that the benefits from each additional kWh are the same. Therefore, the analysis seeks to minimise the economic, social and environmental costs of generating one unit of electricity from different hydropower sites. Following the MCA approach, environmental and social impacts are measured in different (non-monetary) units, instead of attempting to economically value and incorporate them within the single-valued CBA framework.

5.3.6 Environmental, social and economic indicators

Sri Lanka has many varieties of fauna and flora, many of which are endemic or endangered. Often large hydro projects destroy wildlife at the dam sites and the downstream areas. Hence, biodiversity loss was used as the main ecological objective. A biodiversity loss index, as outlined above, was estimated for each hydroelectric site.

Although dam sites are usually in less densely populated rural areas, resettlement is still a serious problem in most cases. In general, people are relocated from the wet to the dry zone where soils are less rich, and therefore the same level of agricultural productivity cannot be maintained. In the wet zone, multiple crops including paddy rice, tobacco, coconuts, mangoes, onions, and chilies can be grown. However, these crops cannot be cultivated as successfully in the dry zone, due to limited access to water and poor soil quality. Living standards often become worse and several problems (like malnutrition) could occur. Moreover, other social issues such as erosion of community cohesion and psychological distress due to change in the living environment might arise. Hence, limiting the number of people resettled due to dam construction is one important social objective.

The project costs are available for each site, from which the critical economic indicator – average cost per kWh per year – may be estimated (for details, see Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) 1987, 1988, 1989). The annual energy generation potential at the various sites ranges from about 11 to 210 GWh (see Table 5). All three variables, the biodiversity loss index, number of people resettled, and generation costs, are divided by the amount of electrical energy generated. This scaling removes the influence of project size and makes them more comparable.


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Table 5. Multi-criteria indexing of hydropower project options1

Hydro Site

Annual Generation

Generation cost Persons Resettled Biodiversity loss

Gwh AVC/KWh/yr Rank RE/KWh/yr Rank BDI/KWh/yr Rank 1. AGRA003 28 12.1 16 11.07 22 0.86 12 2. DIYA008 11 15.8 18 2.39 15 1.74 15 3. GING052 159 12 15 0.6 9 3.71 20 4. GING053 210 16.4 19 5.77 20 4.71 21 5. GING074 209 4.3 1 0.74 10 0.2 7 6. HEEN009 20 17.7 21 1.31 12 7.09 22 7. KALU075 149 9.7 11 3.36 17 0 1 8. KRLA071 114 6.8 3 4.56 18 3.51 19 9. KOTM033 390 7.3 5 0.44 8 0.01 3 10. KUKU022 512 7.5 7 1.78 13 2.3 17 11. LOGG011 22 12.6 17 5 19 2.14 16 12. MAGA029 78 8.5 9 0 1 0.14 6 13. MAGU043 161 9.9 12 0.25 7 2.37 18 14. MAHA096 34 18.4 22 8.06 21 1.64 14 15. MAHO007 50 16.5 20 0 1 0.02 4 16. MAHW235 83 7.3 5 0 1 0.78 11 17. MAHW287 42 11.1 14 0 1 0.09 5 18. NALA004 18 7.1 4 0 1 0 1 19. SITA014 123 8.8 10 2.93 16 0.57 9 20. SUDU009 79 9.9 12 1.27 11 0.72 10 21. SUDU017 113 7.9 8 2.3 14 0.88 13 22. UMAO008 143 5.1 2 0 1 0.54 8

Source: CEB (1987); CEB (1988); Meier and Munasinghe (1994) 1Notes: Average generation costs (AVC), biodiversity loss index (BDI), and number of resettled people (RE) by hydroelectricity project. All indices are per kWh per year. Numbers of people resettled and biodiversity loss index are scaled for convenience (by multipliers 10-5 and 10-9 respectively).

Conclusions of Example 4

A simple statistical analysis shows that pair-wise, there is a little correlation between the quantity of electricity generated, average generation cost, number of people resettled, and biodiversity loss index.

From Table 5, it is clear that on a per kWh per year basis, the projects named AGRA003 and KALU075 have the highest and lowest biodiversity loss index, HEEN009 and MAGA029 have the highest and lowest numbers of resettled people, and MAHA096 and GING074 have the highest and lowest average generation costs, respectively. Some important comparisons may be made. For example, KALU075 is a relatively large project where the costs are low, whereas MAHA096 is a smaller scheme with much higher costs with respect to all three indices. Another simple observation is that a project like KELA071 fully dominates GING053, since the former is superior in terms of all three indicators. Similar comparisons may be made between other projects.

This type of analysis gives policymakers some idea about which project is more favourable from a sustainable energy development perspective. Suppose we arbitrarily give all the three objectives an equal weight. Then, each project may be ranked according to its absolute distance from the origin of the three


39

axes, as shown in Figure 8. For example, rank 1 is given to the one that is closest to the origin, rank 2 to the second closest and so on. On this overall basis, from a sustainable energy development perspective, project no.5 (GING074) is the most favourable one, whereas the least favourable one is project no. 14 (MAHA096).

Figure 8. Three dimensional MCA of sustainable development indicators for various hydropower options

vera

ge g

ener

atio

n co

st (U

SkW

hyr)

Number ofpeople /kWhyr

Biodiversity indexkWhyr

Source: Morimoto, Munasinghe and Meier (2000).

The strength of this type of analysis lies in its ability to help policy-makers in comparing project alternatives more easily and effectively. The simple graphical presentations are more readily comprehensible, and identify the sustainable development characteristics of each scheme quite clearly. The multi-dimensional analysis supplements the more conventional CBA, based on economic analysis alone. Since each project has different features, assessing them by looking at only one aspect (e.g., generation costs, effects on biodiversity, or impacts on resettlement) could be misleading.

There are some weaknesses in the MCA approach used here. First, for simplicity each major objective is represented by only one variable, assuming that all the other impacts are minor. In reality, there may be more than one variable that can describe the economic, social and environmental aspects of sustainable development. Further analysis that includes other variables may provide important new insights. Second, this study could be extended, for example, to include other renewable sources of energy in the analysis. Finally, improved 3D-graphic techniques could yield a better and clearer representation of these multi-criteria outcomes [Tufte 1992].


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6. CONCLUDING REMARKS

Development assistance strategies must consider how projects would be affected by and also affect climate change. The proposed case studies for the OECD project may therefore wish to focus on developing an interactive process to explore the dynamics of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation – especially when one goes beyond simple "win-win" outcomes, and confronts difficult trade-off situations among conflicting objectives.

The proposed framework is still incomplete due to the wide scope of issues to be analysed. However, it is designed to be dynamically evolving, in order to address rapidly changing problems. The existing gaps of the framework should be filled, as the empirical country case studies progress. The main ideas most relevant and practical for this project are summarised below.

• Emphasising that development comes first – i.e., starting from a development perspective, while recognising that climate change will affect future development paths and vice versa, with many complex and dynamic feedback mechanisms. Ideally, climate change policies should become a part of the overall core sustainable development strategy.

• Focusing on ‘making development more sustainable’ – because improving the sustainability of existing development activities is a more easily achievable, relevant and practical goal, rather than striving to define the elusive topic of sustainable development.

• Integrating and balancing the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development using interdisciplinary approaches, while acknowledging that these perspectives may differ among countries and communities.

• Recognising durability and optimality as complementary, integrative approaches, and identifying where they might be appropriately applied.

• Focusing on poverty, growth and equity on the development side, and on vulnerability adaptation, and mitigation on the climate side (especially aspects of mitigation, which are closely linked with adaptation).

• Developing an analytical process that flows from the transnational to the national and local levels - which starts with development documents (such as NSSDs, PRSPs, which are rooted in the MDGs) and environmental documents (like NEAPs and climate change reports); passes through the action impact matrix (AIM); then utilises natural resource management methods; and finally focuses on consistency with climate vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation policy objectives.

• Applying the action impact matrix (AIM) method to inter-link and articulate development activities with climate change vulnerabilities, adaptation and impacts (on economic, social and environmental goal including GHG emission levels). The AIM process engages all key


41

stakeholders and promotes consensus building, especially between the often distinct development and climate communities. The cells in the matrix help to explicitly identify key vulnerabilities, changes in GHG emission levels and climate impacts in relation to development activities – especially, powerful macro-policies which have far more important consequences than localised projects. This approach focuses attention on the most important issues, as well as detailed methods of analysing them. The results of the analysis, in turn, suggest action priorities and remedies to problems (including both synergies and trade-offs).

• Applying a range of sustainable development assessment (SDA) techniques to the priority issues that were identified during the AIM process. Specific methods include economic analysis (including cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria analysis), environmental assessment, and social assessment. Other case specific analytical methods and appropriate indicators of sustainability would also be used, to facilitate in-depth assessment of synergies and trade-offs between climate and development.

• Using a range of sectoral, regional and macro-models, to indicate national sustainable development paths and policy options that incorporate concerns about climate change vulnerability, adaptation and impacts, as well as opportunities for cost-effective mitigation.

We conclude by identifying helpful criteria for the country case studies in the next stage of the OECD project. The ultimate objective would be to determine priorities for future development assistance, including the strengthening of adaptive and mitigative capacity, and practical guidance to help in mainstreaming climate change considerations into development and development assistance policies. The following general criteria would be useful in determining priority areas for more detailed analysis:

• extent of adverse impacts and vulnerability; • synergies and trade-offs with other development goals and policies; • potential for implementing remedies (including adaptive and mitigative capacity); • cost-effectiveness.


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ANNEX 1: TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT

A1.1 Indicators

A wide variety of indicators relating to the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development have been discussed in the literature [e.g., Munasinghe and Shearer 1995; UNDP 1998; World Bank 1998; Liverman et al. 1988; Kuik and Verbruggen 1991; Opschoor and Reijnders 1991; Holmberg and Karlsson 1992; Adriaanse 1993; Alfsen and Saebo 1993; Bergstrom 1993; Gilbert and Feenstra 1994; Moffat 1994; OECD 1994; Azar 1996; UN 1996; Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) 1998; World Bank 1997]. In particular, we note that measuring the stocks of economic, environmental (natural), human and social capital raises various problems.

Manufactured capital may be estimated using conventional neo-classical economic analysis. As described later in the section on cost-benefit analysis, market prices are useful when economic distortions are relatively low, and shadow prices could be applied in cases where market prices are unreliable (e.g., Squire and van der Tak 1975).

Natural capital needs to be quantified first in terms of key physical attributes. Typically, damage to natural capital may be assessed by the level of air pollution (e.g., concentrations of suspended particulate, sulphur dioxide or GHGs), water pollution (e.g., BOD or COD), and land degradation (e.g., soil erosion or deforestation). Then the physical damage could be valued using a variety of techniques based on environmental and resource economics (e.g., Munasinghe 1992; Freeman 1993; Teitenberg 1992).

Social capital is the one that is most difficult to assess [Grootaert 1998]. Putnam [1993] described it as ‘horizontal associations’ among people, or social networks and associated behavioural norms and values, which affect the productivity of communities. A somewhat broader view was offered by Coleman [1990], who viewed social capital in terms of social structures, which facilitate the activities of agents in society – this permitted both horizontal and vertical associations (like firms). An even wider definition is implied by the institutional approach espoused by North [1990] and Olson [1982], that includes not only the mainly informal relationships implied by the earlier two views, but also the more formal frameworks provided by governments, political systems, legal and constitutional provisions etc. Recent work has sought to distinguish between social and political capital (i.e., the networks of power and influence that link individuals and communities to the higher levels of decisionmaking). Human resource stocks are often measured in terms of the value of educational levels, productivity and earning potential of individuals.

A1.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)

Cost-benefit analysis is an important tool in the economic and financial analysis of projects and for determining their viability. The basic criterion for accepting a project is that the net present value (NPV) of benefits is positive. Typically, NPV = PVB – PVC,


43

T T where PVB = ∑ Bt / (1 + r)t ; and PVC = ∑ Ct / (1 + r)t .

t=0 t=0 Bt and Ct are the project benefits and costs in year t, r is the discount rate, and T is the time horizon. Both benefits and costs are defined as the difference between what would occur with and without the project being implemented.

When two projects are compared, the one with the higher NPV is deemed superior. Furthermore, if both projects yield the same benefits (PVB), then it is possible to derive the least cost criterion - where the project with the lower PVC is preferred. The IRR is defined as that value of the discount rate for which PVB = PVC, while BCR = PVB/PVC. The BCR may be interpreted as a measure of ‘cost effectiveness’, e.g., even if the benefits are not measurable in monetary terms, BCR indicates the gain derived per unit of investment in a project. Further details of these criteria, as well as their relative merits in the context of sustainable development, are provided in [Munasinghe 1992].

If a purely financial analysis is required from the private entrepreneurs viewpoint, then B, C, and r are defined in terms of market or financial prices, and NPV yields the discounted monetary profit. This situation corresponds to the economist's ideal world of perfect competition, where numerous profit-maximising producers and utility-maximising consumers achieve a Pareto-optimal outcome. However, conditions in the real world are far from perfect, due to monopoly practices, externalities (such as environmental impacts which are not internalised in the private market), and interference in the market process (e.g., taxes). Such distortions cause market (or financial) prices for goods and services to diverge from their economically efficient values. Therefore, the economic efficiency viewpoint usually requires that shadow prices (or opportunity costs) be used to measure B, C and r. In simple terms, the shadow price of a given scarce economic resource is given by the change in value of economic output caused by a unit change in the availability of that resource. In practice, there are many techniques for measuring shadow prices – e.g., removing taxes, duties and subsidies from market prices (for details, see Munasinghe 1992; Squire and van der Tak 1975).

The incorporation of environmental considerations into the economist’s single valued CBA criterion requires further adjustments. All significant environmental impacts and externalities need to be valued as economic benefits and costs. As explained earlier in the section on indicators, environmental assets may be quantified in physical or biological units. Recent techniques for economically valuing environmental impacts are summarised in Box 3. However, many of them (such as biodiversity) cannot be accurately valued in monetary terms, despite the progress that has been made in recent years [Munasinghe 1992; Freeman 1993]. Therefore, criteria like NPV often fail to adequately represent the environmental aspect of sustainable development.

Capturing the social dimension of sustainable development within CBA is even more problematic. Some attempts have been made to attach ‘social weights’ to costs and benefits so that the resultant NPV favours poorer groups (see also, Box 2). However, such adjustments (or preferential treatment for the poor) are rather arbitrary, and have weak foundations in economic theory. Other key social considerations like empowerment and participation are hardly represented within CBA. In summary, the conventional CBA methodology would tend to favour the market-based economic viewpoint, although environmental and social considerations might be introduced in the form of side constraints.

A1.3 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

This technique is particularly useful in situations where a single criterion approach like CBA falls short – especially when significant environmental and social impacts cannot be assigned monetary values. MCA is


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implemented usually within a hierarchical structure. The highest level represents the broad overall objectives (for example, improving the quality of life), which are often vaguely stated. However, they can be broken down - usually into more comprehensible, operationally relevant and easily measurable lower level objectives (e.g., increased income). Sometimes only proxies are available – e.g., if the objective is to preserve biological diversity in a rainforest, the practically available attribute may be the number of hectares of rainforest remaining. Although value judgements may be required in choosing the proper attribute (especially if proxies are used), actual measurement does not have to be in monetary terms – unlike CBA. More explicit recognition is given to the fact that a variety of objectives and indicators may influence planning decisions.

Figure A1.1 is a two dimensional representation of the basic concepts underlying MCA. Consider an electricity supplier, who is evaluating a hydroelectric project that could potentially cause biodiversity loss. Objective Z1 is the additional project cost required to protect biodiversity, and Z2 is an index indicating the loss of biodiversity. The points A, B, C and D in the figure represent alternative projects (e.g., different designs for the dam). In this case, project B is superior to (or dominates) A in terms of both Z1 and Z2 – because B exhibits lower costs as well as less bio-diversity loss relative to A. Thus, alternative A may be discarded. However, when we compare B and C, the choice is more complicated since the former is better than the latter with respect to costs but worse with respect to biodiversity loss. Proceeding in this fashion, a trade-off curve (or locus of best options) may be defined by all the non-dominated feasible project alternatives such as B, C and D. Such a curve implicitly places both economic and environmental attributes on a more equal footing.

Further ranking of alternatives is not possible without the introduction of value judgements (for an unconstrained problem). Typically, additional information may be provided by a family of equi-preference curves that indicate the way in which the decision maker or society trades off one objective against the other (see the figure). Each such equi-preference curve indicates the locus of points along which society is indifferent to the trade-off between the two objectives. The preferred alternative is the one that yields the greatest utility – i.e., at the point of tangency D of the trade-off curve with the best equi-preference curve (i.e., the one closest to the origin).

Since equi-preference curves are usually not measurable, other practical techniques may be used to narrow down the set of feasible choices on the trade-off curve. One approach uses limits on objectives or ‘exclusionary screening’. For example, the decision maker may face an upper bound on costs (i.e., a budgetary constraint), depicted by CMAX in the figure. Similarly, ecological experts might set a maximum value of bio-diversity loss BMAX (e.g., a level beyond which the ecosystem suffers catastrophic collapse). These two constraints may be interpreted in the context of durability considerations, mentioned earlier. Thus, exceeding CMAX is likely to threaten the viability of the electricity supplier, with ensuing social and economic consequences (e.g., jobs, incomes, returns to investors etc.). Similarly, violating the biodiversity constraint will undermine the resilience and sustainability of the forest ecolosystem. In a more practical sense, CMAX and BMAX help to define a more restricted portion of the trade-off curve (darker line) – thereby narrowing and simplifying the choices available to the single alternative D, in the figure.

This type of analysis may be expanded to include other dimensions and attributes. For example, in our hydroelectric dam case, the number of people displaced (or resettled) could be represented by another social variable Z3 .


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Figure A1.1 Simple Two Dimensional Example of Multi-criteria Analysis

H IG H E q u i-p re fe re n c e T ra d e o ff C u rv e C u rv e s C C M A X D A F e a s ib le s e t o f O p tio n s B O B M A X H IG H

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A1.4 Linking sustainable development issues with conventional decision making

Figure A1.2 provides an example of how environmental assessment is combined with economic analysis. The right-hand side of the diagram indicates the hierarchical nature of conventional decision making in a modern society. The global and international level consists of sovereign nation states. In the next level are individual countries, each with a multi-sectored macro-economy. Various economic sectors (like industry and agriculture) exist in each country. Finally, each sector consists of different sub-sectors and projects. The conventional decision making process in a modern economy is shown on the right side of Figure A1.2. It relies on techno-engineering, financial and economic analyses of projects and policies. In particular, conventional economic analysis has been well developed in the past, and uses techniques such as project evaluation/cost-benefit analysis (CBA), sectoral/regional studies, multi-sectoral macroeconomic analysis, and international economic analysis (finance, trade, etc.) at the various hierarchic levels.


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Figure A1.2 Incorporating Environmental Concerns into Decision making

Figure A1.2. Incorporating Environmental Concerns IntoDecisionmaking

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Unfortunately, environmental and social analysis cannot be carried out readily using the above process (i.e., economic, financial and techno-engineering analyses). We examine how environmental issues might be incorporated into this framework (with the understanding that similar arguments may be made with regard to social issues). The left side of Figure A1.2 shows one convenient breakdown of environmental issues:

• global and transnational (e.g., climate change, ozone layer depletion); • natural habitat (e.g., forests and other ecosystems); • land (e.g., agricultural zone); • water resource (e.g., river basin, aquifer, watershed); and • urban-industrial (e.g., metropolitan area, airshed).

In each case, a holistic environmental analysis would seek to study a physical or ecological system in its entirety. Complications arise when such natural systems cut across the structure of human society. For example, a large and complex forest ecosystem (like the Amazon) could span several countries, and also interact with many economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, energy, etc.) within each country.

The causes of environmental degradation arise from human activity (ignoring natural disasters and other events of non-human origin), and therefore, we begin on the right side of the figure. The ecological effects of economic decisions must then be traced through to the left side. The techniques of environmental assessment (EA) have been developed to facilitate this analysis [World Bank 1998]. For example, destruction of a primary moist tropical forest may be caused by activities in many different sectors of the


47

economy. Slash and burn agriculture often exacerbates forest depletion. Land clearing could be encouraged by land-tax incentives arising from fiscal policy. Hydroelectric dams will inundate large tracks of forest. The construction of rural roads may cause significant forest cutting. Mining in remote areas also could cause large-scale depletion of forests. Disentangling and prioritising these multiple causes (right side) and their impacts (left side) will involve a complex analysis.

Figure A1.2 also shows to bridge the ecology-economy interface, by mapping the EA results (measured in physical or ecological units) onto the framework of conventional economic analysis. A variety of environmental and economic techniques facilitate this process of incorporating environmental issues into traditional decision making. These include valuation of environmental impacts (at the local/project level), integrated resource management (at the sector/regional level), environmental macroeconomic analysis and environmental accounting (at the economy-wide level), and global/transnational environmental economic analysis (at the international level). Since there is considerable overlap among the analytical techniques described above, this conceptual categorisation should not be interpreted too rigidly. Furthermore, when economic valuation of environmental impacts is difficult, techniques such as multi-criteria analysis (MCA) would be useful (see Section A1.3).

Once the foregoing steps are completed, projects and policies must be redesigned to reduce their environmental impacts and shift the development process towards a more sustainable path. Clearly, the formulation and implementation of such policies is itself a difficult task. In the deforestation example described earlier, protecting this ecosystem is likely to raise problems of co-ordinating policies in a large number of disparate and (usually) uncoordinated ministries and line institutions (i.e., energy, transport, agriculture, industry, finance, forestry, etc.).

Analogous reasoning may be readily applied to social assessment (SA) at the society-economy interface, in order to incorporate social considerations more effectively into the conventional economic decision making framework. In this case, the left side of Figure A1.2 would include key elements of SA, such as asset distribution, inclusion, cultural considerations, values and institutions. Impacts on human society (i.e., beliefs, values, knowledge and activities), and on the bio-geophysical environment (i.e., both living and non-living resources) are often inter-linked via second and higher order paths, requiring integrated application of SA and EA. For example, economic theory emphasises the importance of pricing policy to provide incentives that will influence rational consumer behaviour. However, cases of seemingly irrational or perverse behaviour abound, which might be better understood through findings in areas like behavioural and social psychology, and market research.

Such work has identified basic principles that help to influence society and modify human actions, including reciprocity (or repaying favours), behaving consistently, following the lead of others, responding to those we like, obeying legitimate authorities, and valuing scarce resources [Cialdini 2001]. These insights reflect current thinking on the co-evolution of socio-economic and ecological systems.


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Development and Climate Change: Exploring Linkages between

Natural Resource Management and Climate Adaptation Strategies

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Unclassified COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2002)3/FINAL Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 09-Apr-2003 ___________________________________________________________________________________________

English - Or. English

DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE: EXPLORING LINKAGES BETWEEN NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Summary Report: Informal Expert Meeting, 13-14 March 2002, Paris

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Application for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this material should be addressed to the Head of Publications Service, OECED, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris, Cedex 16, France.


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FOREWORD

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity being jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment (WPENV). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Insights from the work are therefore expected to have implications for the development assistance community in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.

Jan Corfee Morlot and Martin Berg of the OECD Environment Directorate, with input from Georg Caspary of the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate, organised an informal meeting of development and climate change experts to help guide the project (March 13-14, 2002 in Paris), and drafted this report.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Background and introduction ...................................................................................................................... 6 Highlights of the informal expert meeting .................................................................................................. 7

Development and natural resource management themes for analysis in the case study phase................ 7 Adaptation financing issues..................................................................................................................... 9 Framework for analysis ......................................................................................................................... 10 Extending the analytical framework to vulnerability and adaptive capacity......................................... 14 Approach to case study selection........................................................................................................... 15 Other relevant projects........................................................................................................................... 17 Conclusions and wrap-up ...................................................................................................................... 17

Annex 1: Poverty reduction strategy papers: progress to date by country ................................................ 19 Annex 2: Food Security Break Out Group................................................................................................ 21 Annex 3: Coastal Zone Management Break Out Group ........................................................................... 23 Annex 4: Partial listing of other relevant projects..................................................................................... 26 Annex 5: List of Particpants...................................................................................................................... 30 References ................................................................................................................................................. 36


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Summary

1. The OECD organised an informal expert meeting on the Development and Climate Change Project 13-14 March in Paris. It was attended by about 20 invited experts, 6 government delegates (from both WP/GSP and WP/ENV) and several representatives of relevant inter-governmental organisations. The meeting included experts from both the climate policy community (largely adaptation experts) and from the development community. Participants were enthusiastic about the prospects for OECD contributions to assess, advance understanding of, and strengthen the linkages between climate and development policies, especially through the cross-cutting themes of natural resources management and adaptation policies.

2. The climate and development communities are often distinct and do not necessarily “speak the same language.” At a minimum, the project should advance an understanding between these two audiences and begin to establish a common platform for action in areas where the two sets of policy objectives intersect. An example of where progress seems likely is in the acknowledgement by both communities of the importance of factoring in climate change impacts and vulnerabilities when planning for development, with applications ranging from building institutions for better governance to re-orienting specific investments in physical infrastructure.

3. A number of real differences in perspectives exist among the two communities. For example, development policy interests tend to be driven by national demands (or “demand-driven”), whereas the climate change community tends to approach the policy problem from the supply side (e.g. policy packages involving support from industrialised countries to help developing countries adapt). Yet, the funds available to support adaptation will probably be less than what would be required to successfully limit vulnerability to climate change in any one locality or, more generally, across developing countries as a whole. A more powerful and cost-efficient solution over the longer term is likely therefore to be integrating adaptation (including the strengthening of adaptive capacity) into core development strategies.

4. Given that climate change is expected to affect the poorest developing countries relatively hard, a number of key questions emerge for development co-operation officials and their counter-parts in countries:

• How to enhance adaptation or adaptive capacity1 through normal development plans and projects?

• What are the priorities for investment in adaptation or adaptive capacity?

• How should such priorities be determined by developing countries and donor communities?

5. Participants suggested that the OECD may have a unique role to work with the bilateral development co-operation community, especially given its capacity to convene these donors and formulate recommendations. Project results might be used to recommend how to “mainstream” climate change, or adaptation in particular, in development planning. Such recommendations could be based on other work underway in the OECD, in particular on development co-operation guidance on mainstreaming the Rio conventions on biodiversity, desertification and climate change into donor activities (OECD 2002a). This project might take this guidance a next step by providing detailed recommendations on how to address climate change more systematically, particularly with respect to natural resource management priorities, in

1. Adaptation includes specific measures such as sea walls. Adaptive capacity is the ability to implement

adaptations and is a function of such factors as wealth, access to technology, and institutional capacity.


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the assessment of development strategies and development co-operation projects. In this context, the group also explored specific themes, including food security and coastal zone management challenges.

Background and introduction

6. The OECD recently initiated a joint project on climate change and development. The project will focus on linkages between responses to climate change and economic development planning, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Overseen by the Environment Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WP/GSP) and the Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment (WP/ENV), the origins of the joint project can be traced to the “OECD Informal High-Level Meeting on Climate and Development”, held in July 2000. The High Level Meeting brought together senior representatives of the development co-operation and environment ministries to discuss matters of common concern and concluded that joint work of this type could be fruitful and provide useful insights and guidance for both the development co-operation and the environmental policy communities.

7. A starting premise for the project is that development and climate policies imply a two-way relationship: choices about development pathways influence climate change; similarly climate change will influence development. The project is an attempt to test this “hypothesis” and to deepen our understanding of it.

8. The basic objective of the project is to examine the linkages between the two policy areas and to draw appropriate recommendations for OECD Members, in relation to both their development co-operation efforts and their climate change policies. Project results and recommendations should also assist non-Member countries to plan development in a way that exploits synergies between development and climate policies. The primary emphasis in this project is on adaptation policies.

9. Within this scope, the project seeks to map out the main areas where development policy choices play an important role in widening or narrowing the scope for climate-friendly development options. It may identify opportunities to combine development strategies with cost-effective climate change adaptation policies at the local, national and international levels. Finally, it could identify opportunities where such combined development and adaptation strategies can also enhance mitigation efforts (e.g. in the areas of forestry, agricultural and other land use management).2

10. An assessment of climate and development linkages could cover different clusters of issues. These include agriculture and food security issues; inland waterway and watershed management; coastal zone management; forestry; and human health.3 Issues relating to energy supply and use will not be covered in this project, except as they directly relate to other natural resource management issues (e.g. biomass energy or fuel-wood questions in the case of forestry and land use management may be important). The narrowing of the scope reflects resource constraints, and will also help to ensure development of new policy insights for the more limited selected set of themes.

11. The work plan foresees three phases for the project. The first phase will develop a literature review, framework and work plan for the case studies by mid-2002. The second phase will carry out the

2. These project aims and sub-aims have been modified slightly based on discussions in previous WP/GSP

and WP/ENV meetings. In particular, these discussions clarified the limited coverage of mitigation options in this project. There may also be a need to narrow the number of specific themes to be covered during the case study phase.

3. Human health could include issues such as famine, risks of spread of vector-borne disease, and problems associated with poor water quality. It could also be considered a cross-cutting theme.


7

case studies. This phase is planned to begin later this year and run through to the middle of 2003. The final phase will produce policy recommendations and a final report by the end of 2003.

12. In February 2002, a draft literature review and a framework paper were commissioned from consultants. An informal expert meeting was convened in March 2002 to review and comment on preliminary drafts of these products and to provide suggestions for the next steps in the project. Drafts of the literature review and framework papers are currently in progress and are planned for public release later in 2002. Elements of the current versions of both papers are included below. Early results from the project also contributed to the OECD’s preparations and report for the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg (OECD 2002). In addition, results obtained from the project will be used to support the WSSD process itself (August 2002) and again during the follow-up period.

13. This report highlights the results of the expert meeting.

Highlights of the informal expert meeting

Development and natural resource management themes for analysis in the case study phase

14. The workshop discussions identified adaptation and strengthening of adaptive capacity as the climate policy objectives of most relevance to natural resource management and development challenges. Adaptation must be seen as an on-going process that responds to different types of vulnerability at the local community level. In the case of human systems, adaptation can be either anticipatory or reactive (Figure 1 from IPCC 2001). For natural systems, adaptation may be reactive, but these systems may also require anticipatory measures, such as the creation of migration corridors. Thus, there is some scope for adaptation and development policies to increase the resilience of natural systems to climate change. Increasing this resilience would limit the vulnerability of a country, region or community to climate change, and would support sustainable development more generally.

Figure 1. Matrix showing the five prevalent types of adaptation to climate change, including examples

Anticipatory Reactive

Pri

vate

Pub

lic

· Purchase of insurance· Construction of house on stilts· Redesign of oil-rigs

· Compensatory payments, subsidies· Enforcement of building codes· Beach nourishment

· Early-warning systems· New building codes, design standards· Incentives for relocation

· Changes in farm practices· Changes in insurance premiums· Purchase of air-conditioning

HumanSystems

NaturalSystems

· Changes in length of growing season· Changes in ecosystem composition· Wetland migration

Source: Based on Klein 1998; IPCC 2001.

15. There may be an important difference in the spatial scale and time frame of both the analysis of options and the necessary policy responses in the climate and development communities. While development plans and development indicators tend to be national, adaptation actions are also relevant at the local and regional scales, as well as at the national scale. Important differences may also exist in expected time frames for measurable results of investment. Development co-operation practitioners


8

require their investments to yield results in short-to-medium time frames, whereas climate policy typically aims to tackle longer-term problems, with longer-term results. These differences in the relevant spatial scale and time frame for the framing of policy could complicate the setting of common objectives or criteria to guide public investment strategies.

16. Participants identified a number of natural resource management or development sub-themes for possible investigation, including food security, agriculture, land use, watershed management and coastal zone management. When commenting on areas of importance for adaptation in their national communications, 85% of developing countries identified food security, 70% identified water resources, and 60% emphasised coastal zones.4 A related issue is natural hazards, which already has a strong network of disaster management activities associated with it. This network could assist in establishing links between climate and development policies and their respective communities (Abramovitz et al. 2001). Coastal zone management also potentially combines many of the other themes outlined here.

17. Possible synergies also exist between adaptation and mitigation in the areas of forestry, agriculture and carbon sink enhancement. These synergies also extend to natural resources management objectives in the context of development. This theme is clearly within the scope of the project, however some participants noted that it should be considered among other priority problems for development, such as food security or water supply and quality.

18. A number of other areas may also be relevant for further work, but could also be the subject of separate projects on their own. These include the connections between climate change, biodiversity and desertification policy objectives, which are largely treated separately in international and national policy, even though they are clearly inter-related. Human health is also clearly relevant to food security, coastal zone and watershed management themes.

19. Climate change impacts are not high on the political agenda of most developing countries. Case studies, such as those proposed in this project, could raise awareness about available information on possible climate change impacts as well as about the notions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Though human societies have over the centuries gathered knowledge and experience about how to deal with climate change, it is likely that the rates and magnitudes of future change will exceed historical experience. Climate change impacts will also likely evoke unknown problems that cannot be solved with traditional knowledge. If implemented through a consultative process involving local stakeholders, planned adaptation could help to prepare communities to more effectively and efficiently respond to wider fluctuations in climate change (Virdin 2002). Thus, even where a rich literature may exist on climate impacts and vulnerability, local communities may not be aware of this experience, nor will they have necessarily applied it to improve their ability to cope with climate change. Active participation of developing country partners in the development of case studies may be key identifying opportunities to mainstream adaptation into development planning and projects.

4. Personal communication from Youssef Nassef, UNFCCC Secretariat, commenting on the national

communications received to date (March 2002).


9

Adaptation financing issues

20. Participants also considered how the UNFCCC process will support financing to assist with national adaptation priorities. Based on a decision outlined at COP1 in 1995, three stages of activities are eligible for adaptation funds through the GEF (UNFCCC 1995):

• Stage I—Planning, which includes studies of possible impacts of climate change, to identify particularly vulnerable countries or regions and policy options for adaptation and appropriate capacity building;

• Stage II—Measures, including further capacity building, which may be taken to prepare for adaptation, as envisaged by Article 4.1(e);

• Stage III—Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, including insurance and other adaptation measures as envisaged by Articles 4.1(b) and 4.4.

21. In particular, the COP-7 decision on adaptation funding should lead to projects in least developed countries (LDCs) with urgent adaptation needs, beginning with the preparation of National Adaptation Plans of Action. An LDC expert group has been established to discuss funding issues and provide technical assistance to countries upon request. Guidelines should be ready by June 2002 for discussion at the upcoming Subsidiary Body meetings.

22. The GEF Secretariat organised a consultation with LDC representatives in February, and draft guidelines were prepared for review at the May meeting of the GEF Council and can be reviewed at the GEF website (www.gefweb.org). Two governments, Canada and Ireland, have made contributions in advance of the formal approval of GEF arrangements and guidelines. The COP decision requests the GEF to report by COP 8 on its willingness to manage the funds, implying that limited activity can begin before the November 2002 meeting.

23. Compared to the situation for LDCs, even less consensus exists on how to advance funding to other developing countries (not LDCs) for adaptation. The Marrakech Accords also set up an Adaptation Fund and a Special Climate Change Fund, both of which should make funding available for adaptation activities. The Special Climate Change Fund is a voluntary fund supported by a commitment of some donors to begin by 2005. It has a commitment of $450 million Euros but this includes contributions to the GEF climate change focal area and other climate contributions, such that the actual amount of new resources is not yet known. As funds can also be allocated to capacity building and technology transfer activities, there is a further uncertainty with respect to the amount to be available for adaptation. The Adaptation Fund will be supported by two per cent of the proceeds from Clean Development Mechanism projects, and the criteria for eligible (adaptation) projects is still to be determined. The GEF has been asked to administer these funds as well.

24. The scope of adaptation activities funded by the GEF has been defined by UNFCCC decisions and guidance to date (Klein 2002). While some developing countries have undertaken Stage I activities, work in Stage II has been funded for a limited (but growing) number of countries. Implementation of GEF funded adaptation projects has, for the most part, only just begun. Additional funding to undertake Stage II activities has been limited to a few countries due to Convention guidance that required that work be done on the basis of results provided in Stage I; yet most countries chose not to include Stage I in their first communications. However, the GEF is now supporting Stage I and II together in some projects.


10

25. A further issue has been the delay in reaching an expected Convention decision on guidelines for second national communications by developing countries, now expected to be decided at COP 8 (November 2002). As these guidelines may substantially revise the existing basis for support of national communications, the GEF has been reluctant to support additional communications in the interim.

26. The GEF is currently supporting several projects that include Stage II, including one for the Central America region that will attempt to produce methodologies and lessons for other regions. In addition, a new project pending for Argentina’s second communication (to be reviewed by the GEF Council in May) also includes support of Stage II.5 No guidance has so far been given to the GEF for support of Stage III activities, or with respect to funding of projects under the Adaptation Fund.

27. A further concern is the Convention requirement that support from the financial mechanism be provided on the basis of “agreed incremental cost” of global benefits, except in the context of support for national communications. The Convention also recently agreed that funding NAPAs for LDC should also be supported on the basis of full, rather than incremental cost. However, the GEF has had to address similar linkages between global and local benefits in other areas, particularly biodiversity and land degradation. The focus is typically on removing barriers to the global benefit through technical assistance or capacity building, and in the context of adaptation could include additional expertise or institutional capability necessitated by climate impacts. Thus, a project on understanding impacts of climate change on agriculture in Africa has already been funded on the basis of incremental costs, and institutional support related to climate change has been supported for the Caribbean region. The necessity for these approaches is evident in that full cost funding for adaptation projects (without respect to incremental cost or domestic benefit) could quickly amount to billions of dollars, and would exhaust the likely available resources from the new funds as well as existing GEF resources.

28. Connecting this Project directly to the formal debate on the financing of adaptation in the UNFCCC process could unnecessarily limit the scope of the work to a narrow set of questions. Alternatively taking a “development priorities” starting point (rather than a “climate priorities” starting point) may provide opportunities to identify and build on linkages between adaptation and development priorities through normal development lending. Debate and emerging guidance on adaptation financing will be relevant to the case studies. For example, the case studies might explore the meaning of what constitutes incremental costs for specific adaptation investments that could be layered into development projects or plans in the field of natural resource management. In this way, the results of the case studies may provide insights for concrete applications of such guidance.

Framework for analysis

29. Several concepts from contemporary environmental and social analysis are relevant for developing climate policies, and may also help to establish the framework for analysis in this project, including the concepts of durability, optimality, safe limits, carrying capacity, irreversibility, non-linear responses, and the precautionary principle (Munasinghe 2002). Broadly speaking, durability and optimality are complementary and potentially convergent approaches. For example, under the durability criterion, an important goal would be to determine the safe limits for climate change within which the resilience of global ecological and social systems would not be seriously threatened. The precautionary approach argues

5. A major project which has recently received GEF funding under Stage II is “Assessments of Impacts of

and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors” (AIACC). This project is being implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and executed by the Global Change System for Analysis Research and Training (START) and the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS). See Annex 3 for more detail.


11

that lack of scientific certainty about climate change risks and vulnerabilities should not become a basis for inaction, especially where relatively low cost steps could be undertaken as a form of insurance – to facilitate both adaptation and mitigation efforts (UNFCCC 1993).

30. Workshop participants also discussed the proposed framework as a basis for future analysis. This approach attempts to combine optimality and durability objectives as an organising approach for further work in the project. Participants endorsed the notion that the framework needs to achieve an overall balance between economic, environmental and social objectives in any assessment of climate and development linkages. At the same time, some questioned the practical use of this “theoretical” approach in the context of this project. In this view, the proposed framework is too ambitious and would be difficult to put into practice, because it has not yet been developed fully as a self-contained methodology. A more user-friendly approach was therefore recommended -- one that can be applied to concrete policy problems, using many of the basic concepts and building blocks of the proposed approach, without being model-dominated.

31. Key elements of the framework that would facilitate work on the case studies, include (Munasinghe 2002):

• Emphasising that development comes first – i.e., starting from a development perspective, while recognising that climate change will affect future development paths and vice versa, with many complex and dynamic feedback mechanisms. Ideally, climate change policies should become a part of the overall sustainable development strategy.

• Focusing on ‘making development more sustainable’ – because improving the sustainability of existing development activities is a more easily achievable, relevant and practical goal, rather than striving to define the elusive topic of sustainable development.

• Integrating and balancing the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development using multi-disciplinary approaches, while acknowledging that these perspectives may differ among countries and communities.

• Recognising durability and optimality as complementary, integrative approaches, and identifying where they might be appropriately applied.

• Focusing on poverty, equity and economic growth on the development side and on vulnerability, impacts and adaptation on the climate side (including aspects of mitigation that are closely linked with adaptation).

• Applying tools, such as the action impact matrix (AIM) method, to assess the inter-linkages between development activities with climate change vulnerabilities, adaptation and impacts (on economic, social and environmental goals). Existing development documents (such as NSSDs, PRSPs and MDGs) and environmental documents (like NEAPs and climate change reports) are a good starting point to collate information. This process may also be a means to engage key stakeholders and promote consensus building among disparate communities. The process should identify key vulnerabilities and climate impacts in relation to development activities and focus attention on the most important issues, as well as detailed methods of analysing them. The results of the analysis, in turn, suggest action priorities and remedies to problems (including both synergies and trade-offs).

• Applying a range of sustainable development assessment (SDA) techniques to the priority issues identified during the AIM process. Specific methods include economic analysis (including cost-benefit, cost effectiveness, and multi-criteria analyses), environmental


12

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG)

• Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger• Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

• Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

• Goal 4: Reduce child mortality• Goal 5: Improve maternal health• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and

other diseases

• Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability• Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for

Development

assessment, and social assessment. Other case specific analytical methods and appropriate indicators of sustainability would also be used, to facilitate in-depth assessment of synergies and trade-offs between climate and development.

• Drawing appropriate conclusions for the OECD and donor community concerning priorities for future development assistance, including the strengthening of adaptation and adaptive capacity, and reduction of vulnerabilities among the most affected nations, sectors, systems, and communities.

32. Participants supported the view that development or sustainable development policies and strategies, rather than climate policy plans, would be the best starting point for this project. Specific suggestions include working from agreed national level sustainable development frameworks (e.g. Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS)6; National Agenda 21 Plans; National and Environmental Action Plans; National Vision 2020, or any similar type of "sustainable strategies").

33. These frameworks are rooted in country-owned development objectives as well as internationally agreed goals, such as the Millennium Development Goals (see Box). Often developed in consultation with development co-operation agencies, they generally include a comprehensive analysis of socio-economic conditions, priority policy reforms, and relevant linkages between different sectoral policies and plans. These therefore provide important opportunities to integrate climate related issues in broader development policies and plans in a coherent manner and consistent with nationally-defined goals. They also serve to orient development co-operation investments to a country’s own circumstances and characteristics. If these development plans could be combined with analysis of the implications for climate change vulnerability and of adaptation (or where relevant, mitigation) options, it may be possible to orient investments to areas or projects that will have multiple development and climate change benefits. At a minimum, the Millenium Development Goals could be a point of reference in designing the case studies (UN 2001).

34. The existence of well-developed development plans, National Environmental Action Plans (NEAPs) or other comparable strategy could be a convenient criterion for case study country selection. It will yield possibilities for working with a set of countries with a wide variety of development levels, including many of the poorest (and hence, most vulnerable) countries, as well as countries with high level of "readiness" to address climate change within development priorities.

35. Tools, such as the AIM method, could be used in each case study to focus on natural resource management issues and the check whether impacts of development policies are consistent with objectives for sustainable natural resource management. Case studies might also consider whether vulnerability to climate change is increased or decreased through particular development policies or projects. The use of the AIM, or similar methods, could also be tested and further refined through the case studies as to help for identifying priorities for further assessment of how development policies interact in turn with the vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

6. The PRSPs are part of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative of the World Bank Group and the

International Monetary Fund. As a precondition for debt relief, heavily indebted countries have to prepare a PRSPs (or at least an interim PRSPs). Consequently the PRSPs focus only on low-income countries, and do not yet exist for many developing countries (Annex 1). Some discussion of how well PRSPs are handling global environmental concerns is found in OECD 2002a.


13

Table 1. A simplified preliminary Action Impact Matrix (AIM)

Impacts On Key Sustainable Development Issues Activity/Policy

Main

(Economic) Objective

Land Degr-adation &

Biodiversity Loss

Water Scarcity & Pollution

Resettle-ment & Social Effects

Climate Change Effects (eg., vulnerability and adaptation)

Macro-economic & Sectoral Policies

Macroeconomic and sectoral improvements

Positive impacts due to removal of distortions Negative impacts mainly due to remaining constraints

Exchange Rate Improve trade balance and economic growth

(-H) (deforest

open-access areas)

(-M) (more vulnerable, less adaptive & mitigative capacity)

Water Pricing More efficient water use and economic efficiency

(+M) (water use efficiency)

(+M) (less vulnerable, better adaptive

capacity)

Others

Complemen-tary Measures and Remedies2

Specific socio-economic and environmental gains

Enhance positive impacts and mitigate negative impacts (above) of broader macroeconomic and sectoral policies

Market Based (+M) (pollution tax)

(+L) (less vulnerable)

Non-Market Based

(+H) (property

rights)

(+M) (public sector accountability)

Investment Projects

Improve effectiveness of investments

Investment decisions made more consistent with broader policy and institutional framework

Project 1 (Hydro Dam)

(-H) (inundate forests)

(-M) (displace people)

(+M, -L) (less fossil fuel use,

more vulnerable)

Project 2 (Re-afforest and relocate)

(+H) (replant forests)

(+M) (relocate people)

(+M) (absorb carbon, less vulnerable)

Other Projects

Source: adapted from Munasinghe and Cruz [1994] and Munasinghe 2002 Notes: 1. A few examples of typical policies and projects as well as key economic, environmental and social issues are shown. Some illustrative but qualitative impact assessments are also indicated: thus + and - signify beneficial and harmful impacts, while H and M indicate high and moderate intensity. The AIM process helps to focus on the highest priority economic social and environmental issues. 2. Commonly used market-based measures include effluent charges, tradable emission permits, emission taxes or subsidies, bubbles and offsets (emission banking), stumpage fees, royalties, user fees, deposit-refund schemes, performance bonds, and taxes on products (such as fuel taxes). Non-market based measures comprise regulations and laws specifying environmental standard (such as ambient standards, emission standards, and technology standards) which permit or limit certain actions (‘dos’ and ‘donts’).


14

Extending the analytical framework to vulnerability and adaptive capacity7

36. A key question is how to connect analysis of development and climate policy generally to a more specific consideration of options to limit vulnerability, increase adaptive capacity, and implement adaptation. Vulnerability depends upon exposure and sensitivity to climate change, and both depend on adaptive capacity. One can also consider vulnerability to multiple sources of stress, of which climate change is only one. Other sources of stress, for example, might be natural disasters or rapid declines in levels of economic activity (Downing et al. 2001; Yohe and Tol 2002 forthcoming; Smit et al. 2001).

37. Adaptive capacity has a number of determinants, many of which are also relevant to economic or other types of vulnerability (Yohe and Tol 2002 forthcoming). These include:

• Options for adaptation (each with a potential efficacy to help decrease exposure or sensitvity)

• Resources and distribution of resources

• Decision-making structure of institutions; access to decisions

• Social capital (also related to institutions and political processes)

• Human capital

• Access to risk spreading (broadly defined; not just insurance)

• Ability to process information; credibility; robustness

• Public perceptions

38. Starting with the first determinant, it is important to note that different adaptation or development options have different (intended and unintended) consequences on the targeted source of vulnerability (Yohe and Tol 2002 forthcoming). These options may also have different costs, impacts on crowding out, and rigidities of their own in terms of implementation. Some determinants operate on a micro-scale, that is, path dependent and location specific. Others are macro-scale, at the sub-national, national and supra-national region level. Some determinants depend upon the relationship between the micro-scale and macro-scale factors.

39. A suggestion was made to develop the analytical framework for the project’s case studies so as to help think more systematically about location issues – for example, considering which locations are more vulnerable and why. This could be done at the sub-national regional level, the national level or even at supra-national regional level. Vulnerability of different locations could be assessed systematically by reviewing the strengths and weaknesses of adaptive capacity via the determinants outlined above. The project might also help to think more systematically about common “drivers” of macro-scale determinants of adaptive capacity in different geographic locations and at different scales. Superimposing thoughts about the determinants of adaptive capacity on the relevant indicators of sustainable development may highlight complementarities or conflicts, synergies and trade-offs or impediments for achieving multiple development and climate change benefits through the same investment or policy option (Yohe and Tol 2002 forthcoming).

7. Many of the ideas presented in this section were discussed by participants in the break out group on

analytical and quantitative approaches.


15

40. Such an assessment can be done with complicated models or through relatively simple "thought exercises"; within integrated assessment models or in the context of thinking about scenarios for “not implausible” futures (Strzepek et al. 2001 and Yohe et al., 1999). Different types of actors could conduct this type of analysis, including analysts or policy-makers, drawing on information from UNFCCC National Communications and/or more informally from other relevant stakeholders.8

41. Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are also dynamic concepts and must encompass different visions of the socio-economic future across the economy, population, or a particular sector or location. Also, depending upon the issue selected, different scales of analysis may be appropriate. For example, if water quality and supply issues are to be studied, it would be appropriate to include a watershed management region, possibly a supra-national region, as the geographic unit of analysis. By contrast, analysis of food security (see below) may reasonably be assessed at the national or local level.

42. An overview of how one might link the various concepts from development planning to climate variability and adaptive capacity is outlined in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Assessing the link between development plans and climate policy objectives through the natural resources management window

NSSD or PRSP(dev plans)

ActionImpactMatrix

NaturalResource

Management

Vulnerability, Adaptation

impacts ofdevelopment planon key sectorsvulnerable toclimate change

{Sinks, mitigation

& adaptation

Sca

le Is

sues

Nat’l

Local,Nat’l

Approach to case study selection

43. Participants considered possibilities for the structure and selection of case studies, either along the geographic or location specific lines, or along the lines of natural resource management themes. In the end, there was consensus that both approaches would be needed - any theme could not be explored in the abstract without a specific geographic context. Similarly, a case study on any particular country will need to deal with specific thematic issues of relevance.

44. Participants stressed that the best method could only be through “learning by doing,” thus the need for full engagement of policymakers and other stakeholders in the particular country or region of study. There was some discussion about whether the most relevant stakeholders were to be found at the

8. Personal communication Gary Yohe, March 2002 meeting.


16

local level or at the national level. While most actions on adaptation or even development projects are implemented locally, it is essential to have recognition and engagement of national policy makers. Both local and national policy communities would need to engaged if general policy recommendations were to be derived from the project. A key part of any consultative process will be to get the attention and the involvement of the (non-climate change) development community, which will only be possible at the national or sub-national regional level.

45. One recent study reviews development co-operation activities of a bilateral donor in Africa and identifies areas where projects may aggravate vulnerability to climate change, resulting in maladaptation. The same study also suggests that there are significant opportunities for orienting development co-operation investment to provide multiple adaptation and development benefits (Klein 2001). Some participants suggested that this study might be used as a prototype that could be extended to other donor portfolios, regions or even specific themes.

46. For selecting the case studies, an approach that would clearly fit with development co-operation priorities would be to focus on those countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. These would include the least developed countries, possibly small-island developing states, as well as perhaps more developed, yet highly vulnerable, countries. From the perspective of drawing robust conclusions from the project, however, it was seen to be important to have case studies draw from a cross-section of countries with different levels of development and scales of vulnerability.

47. Priority natural resource sectors for attention could be food security, water and coastal zone management. Human health and insurance were seen as cross-cutting issues. Although insurance approaches to risk mitigation are likely to grow in importance in the negotiation process, it is considered to be beyond the scope of this project.

48. The meeting explored two clusters of natural resource theme in some depth – coastal zone management and food security (see Annex 2 and 3; see also Sari 2002, Virdin 2002 and Cannon 2002). Though not meant to be comprehensive or even necessarily the main themes for further work, looking more carefully at these themes helped to provide insight into possible ways to organise that work. Working through these examples also underscored differences in viewpoints between the climate change and development practitioners. Participants also considered specific suggestions for the analytical framework, especially with respect to how to work from macro-level and national development strategies to sub-national, local or project level assessment of the inter-relationship between development and climate adaptation policies and objectives.

49. Breakout groups on coastal zone management and on food security were asked to recommend a set of countries, regions or specific issues to be investigated that would yield generally applicable policy conclusions. They were also asked to identify suitable frameworks for analysis including recommending whether and how to conduct supplementary quantitative analyses. Finally, the breakout groups were tasked with providing suggestions about on-going or past studies from which the case studies might build. The results of the thematic breakout groups are summarised in Annexes 2 and 3. A third breakout group was convened on general (cross-cutting) quantitative and analytical frameworks.9,10

50. Limited resources will be available to the project to conduct the case studies, which implies the need to build on available information. At a minimum, sound information is required on development strategies, climate policies or plans and information on expected climate change impacts. Governments and 9. The results from this group’s discussion are integrated into the report above.

10. The Secretariat would like to thank Terry Cannon, John Virdin and Gary Yohe for leading discussions in the break out groups on Food Security, Coastal Zone Management and Analytical Issues, respectively.


17

other actors in developing countries will also need to be ready to explore linkages between development and climate adaptation policy. Both development and climate policy practitioners will need to be involved if a true exchange of ideas, viewpoints and greater understanding is to be achieved. Should sufficient funds for the case studies be available, using the studies to stimulate in-country discussion on the connections between development and climate policies would be valuable. Raising awareness about the need to anticipate climate impacts and to address vulnerability is also key to stimulating investments in adaptation. Coping with climate vulnerability could be a mechanism by which investments in adaptation could be linked to investments in other environmental, social or economic development objectives.

51. These suggestions are being explored in follow up to the expert meeting that is developing recommendations on how to proceed with the case studies phase of the project.

Other relevant projects

52. Participants agreed that the case studies should be based on on-going or finished projects so as to build on the results from other work. A variety of projects were mentioned and discussed briefly during the meeting and these are outlined briefly in Annex 4.

Conclusions and wrap-up

53. Experts encouraged the OECD to use the project to improve the understanding and the awareness among the development and climate change policy communities about issues of common interest. In particular, vulnerability, adaptive capacity and adaptation policies for climate change were endorsed as key themes to be explored. Agriculture, forestry and land use could also be addressed, allowing assessment of the possible synergies and trade-offs of combined climate mitigation/adaptation strategies and development policies.

54. Main conclusions of the expert meeting concerned the framework for analysis and principles for case study development. On the framework, experts suggested that it should start from well-accepted development planning tools such as national economic plans, PRSPs or NSSDs, although as discussed earlier in this paper only a limited number of completed PRSPs are available at this stage. Next, the analytical framework will need to address the interface between development and climate policies. The Action Impact Matrix (AIM), or similar methods, were endorsed as useful and practical tools that could identify connections between development plans and climate change policy objectives. Such qualitative assessments could be used to suggest priorities for action based on where synergies appear and remedies to problems where trade-offs appear. By concentrating this screening process on where natural resource management issues intersect with development priorities and climate change impacts, a further narrowing of the issues to be addressed in some detail in the case studies could occur.

55. Once priorities for action and trade-offs are identified, case studies will need to conduct a more careful assessment of where adaptation and development policies intersect. Looking at the determinants of adaptive capacity and vulnerability to climate change could be a way of testing available options for adaptation and their compatibility with development. The project case studies could also test how these determinants vary with location and with levels of development for specific natural resource management issues, such as food security, coastal zones or watersheds.

56. The meeting also recommended a number of principles for the design of case studies. These include the use of a consultative process and engaging both development and climate policy practitioners within a particular case study country. While desirable, a consultative process will clearly be more expensive than pure “desk studies” working with in-country consultant teams and would require revisiting


18

the budget and perhaps the time frame for the project. Final decisions will of course depend upon available resources.

57. It was also suggested that a geographic approach be used as the platform for structuring the case studies, in order to get the attention of the development community. It will also be necessary to include a cross-section of different types of countries, in terms of the level of development. Finally, case study countries or regions will have to be selected on the basis of available information. Given the limited resources and time frame for the project, there will need to be a strong information base both on the side of climate change (impacts and vulnerability information) and on the development side (development plans with relevant environmental information).

58. Once countries or regions of study have been selected, natural resource management issues can be usefully clustered to look at where adaptation policy options interact with development policies and priorities at the local, sub-national regional and national level. Food security and coastal zones are two possible clusters, though there are others (e.g. natural disasters or land use and forestry) that were not explored in any depth in the expert meeting.

59. At the international level, the project should focus on the broad question about how to mainstream adaptation planning and investment into “normal” development planning. In this way, it may provide insights for evolving UNFCCC guidance on how to prioritise projects and activities eligible for multi-lateral financing through the Convention process. In the end, the case studies will need to strike a balance between helping to build capacity, raise awareness and improve national and sub-national institutions to cope with climate change and getting relevant results and recommendations back to OECD Member countries.


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Annex 1: Poverty reduction strategy papers: progress to date by country11

Region/Countries Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP)

PRSP Preparation Status Report

Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (I-PRSP)

Africa (Sub-Saharan)

Benin 06-11-2001 26-06-2000

Burkina Faso 25-05-2002 14-12-2001

Cameroon 31-01-2002 23-08-2000

Central African Republic 13-12-2000

Chad 16-07-2000

Cote d'Ivore 29-03-2002

Djibouti 14-12-2001

Ethiopia 01-11-2000

Gambia, The 18-01-2002 05-10-2000

Ghana 25-02-2002 01-06-2000

Guinea 30-10-2000

Guinea-Bissau 01-09-2000

Kenya 13-07-2000

Lesotho 01-12-2000

Madagascar 20-11-2000

Malawi 01-08-2000

Mali 17-12-2001 19-07-2000

Mauritania 13-12-2000

Mozambique 01-10-2001 16-02-2000

Niger 31-01-2002 06-10-2000

Rwanda 30-11-2000

Sao Tome and Principe 06-04-2000

Senegal 08-05-2000

Sierra Leone 21-09-2001

Tanzania 01-10-2000 14-12-2001 14-03-2000

Uganda 24-03-2000

Zambia 16-11-2001 07-07-2000

East Asia & the Pacific

Cambodia 14-02-2002 01-10-2000

Lao PDR 20-03-2001

Mongolia 27-09-2001

Vietnam 14-03-2001

Europe and Central Asia

Albania 21-02-2002 03-05-2000

Armenia 01-03-2001

Azerbaijan 01-05-2001

Georgia 01-11-2000

Kyrgyzstan 13-06-2001

Macedonia 10-11-2000

Moldavia 15-11-2000

11. See also OECD 2002a for discussion of the how environment is being addressed (or not) to date in PRS

papers being prepared by countries.


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Tajikistan 24-03-2000

Latin America and Caribbean

Bolivia 01-03-2002 01-01-2000

Guyana 30-10-2000

Honduras 27-09-2001 01-03-2000

Nicaragua 13-09-2001 01-08-2000

Middle East and North Africa

Djibouti 14-12-2001

Yemen 01-12-2000

South Asia

Pakistan 14-12-2001

Source: http://www.worldbank.org/poverty/strategies/index.htm (02.04.02)


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Annex 2: Food Security Break Out Group

60. Suggestions made by the breakout group on food security rested on three general assumptions. Firstly, the group adopted a standard measure of food security as the balance between the estimated need for staple foods and availability at national level. In other words, the group agreed that food security is not only about (national) self-sufficiency but also about an adequate combination of national output and imports. Secondly, the group agreed that the main question about food security is whether certain groups of people are predisposed or more vulnerable to hunger on the basis of their inability to consume enough food, rather than inadequate availability of food in the country or region concerned. Hence, the recommendations made by the group are based on an understanding of vulnerability to hunger as inadequate consumption (also known as entitlement insecurity) rather than as inadequate availability of food (also known as food insecurity). Thirdly, the group aimed to take into account all sub-systems of the food system, which may impact upon entitlement insecurity. This includes production, exchange, distribution, and consumption. Climate change is likely to affect each of these in different ways.

61. The Group suggested that food security case studies should focus on agriculture. The main reason for this is that agriculture is the economic sector whose production conditions are most affected by climate change. In particular, the impact of climate change on output of food staples is likely to be significant, with wide regional differences in both increased potential and decreased output. Many of the countries most affected by physical impacts of climate change are also those that are likely to be the least capable of adapting.

62. The group suggested that the case study should focus on one or two crops, with one of these being a staple crop, the other a non-staple. The latter would enable the case study to also take into account the possibility of countries ‘exporting their way out of trouble’ using agricultural goods. (One participant of the breakout group took this idea one step further. Whatever the case study looked like, he suggested that it should look at a broad range of solutions for food security other than just self-sufficiency goals. This approach would take into account even non-agricultural ways of earning income for food imports and consider a broad range of possible ‘development’ solutions, including a complete switch in the national development strategy from emphasising agricultural to industrial production.)

63. If one case study were to be designed to cover the issue of food security, the group suggested to focus on about four countries, according to differences in the current situation for agricultural output and future situation taking climate change into account (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Four types of countries for a case study on food security and climate change

D e c lin in g o u tp u t,cu rre n t d e fic it

D e c lin in g o u tp u t,cu rre n t s u rp lu s

H ig h p o te n tia lo u tp u t, cu rre n td e fic it

H ig h p o te n tia lo u tp u t, c u rre n tsu rp lu s

C u r r e n t d e f ic it o r s u r p lu s o u tp u tFuture output trends


22

64. The group members suggested to investigate the impact of climate change on the same crop in all four countries. It was highlighted in the Plenary discussion that while one crop should be investigated in every country, this needed not be the same crop in every country.

65. Participants suggested to look at climate change impacts on livelihoods at three levels:

• At the global level, the analysis should focus on constraining factors / structural factors, in particular OECD Market Access

• At the national level, the analysis should focus on the existence of relevant plans, strategies, institutions, as well as national climate change projections

• At the local level, the analysis should take into account local ‘archetypal livelihoods’, likely to vary according to location. ‘Archetypal’ livelihoods are the ‘central’ livelihoods typical for a particular country or region. This might be nomadic cattle herding in some African countries or hillside rice farming in some parts of Asia. It was agreed that it might be necessary to relax the one-crop scenario mentioned earlier to account for possible substitutes that might be applied at the local level e.g. in response to a climate-induced fall in yields for the ‘archetypal crop’.

66. Participants agreed that the case studies must aim to capture in particular the poor and subsistence farmers. The group also seemed to reach consensus that market solutions are unlikely to solve hunger problems even with a global food surplus, thus, any case study will also have to discuss governance solutions (co-operation; new institutions; new mechanisms for transfers).

67. Figure 4 outlines the building blocks for a case study on food security.

Figure 4. Food security case study building blocks

T 1 T 2

C r o p s1 o r 2S t a p le

N o n - S t a p le

C o u n t r ie s4 T y p e s

G lo b a l

N a t io n a l

L o c a l

P la n s S t r a t e g ie s

I n s t i t u t io n s P r o j e c t io n s

“ A r c h e t y p a l” L iv e l ih o o d s

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -M u s t C a p tu r e

P o o r /S u b s i s t e n c e

G M O s ?


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Annex 3: Coastal Zone Management Break Out Group

68. The group agreed that coastal zones combine a variety of overlapping themes, which are equally important from the development and the climate change (CC) perspective:

• a large share of the world’s population lives in coastal zones

• a variety of overlapping economic sectors and environmental issues are priorities for sustainable development (fishing, water, energy, biodiversity, agriculture)

• coastal zones are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than other areas

69. The discussion illustrated the different approaches used by development versus climate change experts towards an issue like adaptation. Experts underlined the discrepancy in timeframes for example, where the development community tends to rely upon a short-term approach and short-term results, while the climate policy community aims to prevent damages over the long-term. The need for development policy, and in particular ODA investments, to yield quick and measurable results is a sticking point for incorporating adaptation planning with relatively small near-term benefits, and larger long-term benefits, into such investments.

70. On the development side, all adaptation measures should address as many Millennium Development Goals (MDG) as possible.

71. A simple matrix with these goals on the one axis and climate change impacts on the other may help to consider how adaptation can be “mainstreamed” in standard development policies. Clearly any measures to reduce the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change impacts will have to address development problems as well if their costs are to be justified.

72. A contrasting view expressed by climate change adaptation experts is that this sort of “win-win” is too restrictive and it limits the range of adaptation options available. In their view, it may be more realistic to focus on one or two Millenium Development Goals, like poverty reduction and environmental conservation, which have clear synergies with investments in adaptation measures. Similarly, many adaptation options may have benefits for natural resource management and conservation and disaster mitigation objectives by targeting action and investment towards reducing vulnerability to current variability and extreme weather events.

73. To combine the different approaches the group concentrated on the overall objective of livelihood security. Achieving this goal is one of the main objectives of both the development and the climate community. In coastal zone regions, livelihood security can be promoted through three complementary types of activities (Figure 5):

1. Natural resource management (including water, land-use, wetlands, biodiversity)

2. Economic development (including tourism, fisheries, agriculture, infrastructure/settlements, water-use)

3. Natural disaster management (including measures to reduce the vulnerability to hurricanes/cyclones, storms/floods, coastal erosions)


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74. The group suggested that at least one case study be designed to evaluate linkages and synergies between the three types of activity. In particular, the recommended case studies could be to seek to answer to the question: How can coastal zones and their resources be managed, such that sustainable development is promoted, the vulnerability of coastal communities to climate extremes is reduced and the loss of livelihood is minimised?

Figure 5. Assessment of climate and development connections in coastal zone areas

L iv e l ih o o dS e c u r i ty

N a tu r a l R e s o u r c eM a n a g e m e n t

E c o n o m icD e v e lo p m e n t

N a tu r a l D is a s te rR e d u c t io n

• W a te r• L a n d - u s e• W e t la n d s• B io d iv e r s i t y

• T o u r is m• F is h e r ie s• A g r ic u lt u r e• I n f r a s t ru c tu r e• W a te r - u s e

• H u r r ic a n e s• C y c lo n e s• E r o s io n

75. The group agreed that adaptation to current climate variability is one of the best ways to deal with longer-term expectations of climate change impacts and vulnerability. The case studies should focus how to target coastal zone management activities so as to promote both economic development and adaptation to climate change.

76. The group also briefly outlined some of the basic information needed to assess vulnerability to climate change and, further, to identify linkages and assess synergies between adaptation options and sustainable development in the coastal zone in question. Information needs include:

• key economic development plans and objectives

• current environmental and socio-economic stresses in the coastal zones regions

• potential impacts of climate change

• potential of socio-economics changes

• institutional arrangements and barriers to develop adaptive capacity

77. Ideally, two case studies would be undertaken, one in a high-density, coastal, urban setting and the other in a small island state. With limited resources, studies would need to use information from on-going or already finished projects. The discussion focused on quite a few areas and projects, e.g the “Land Ocean into Action in the Coastal Zones” (LOIZS) (see Annex 4). In order to “piggyback” on existing projects on coastal zones, some options would be:

• For a case study in a high-density, coastal, urban setting suggestions from the group included the East Coast of India (where some cyclone vulnerability studies are already available), the Philippines or Northwest Africa (e.g. the Dutch government has funded research in Senegal


25

and Gambia). Bangladesh or Sri Lanka are other possibilities as both have heavily populated coastal zones with significant vulnerability to extreme events and sea level rise. However there may be some places that are relatively “over-studied” and some felt that Bangladesh is in that category.

• For a case study in a small island state the group recommended a study in the Caribbean, such as in Trinidad and Tobago; it could build on information already available on adaptation strategies from the finished Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) project (World Bank, forthcoming).


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Annex 4: Partial listing of other relevant projects

International Collaborative Project on Development and Climate

78. The project is being initiated and managed by RIVM (overall co-ordinator), UNEP/RISOE (co-ordinator for energy issues) and IIED (co-ordinator for food security issues), but combines a variety of additional partners, notably from developing country research institutes. Its main goal is to bridge the gap between national development and climate change policies. By exploring with national stakeholders in developing communities the connections between development and climate change policies, the project tries to find ways to enhance global participation in the international climate change regime. Starting from development priorities, and it also will seek national strategies which meet development objectives and help control climate change at the same time. Finally the project also aims to strengthen analytical capacity in research institutions in developing countries.

79. By taking a development oriented approach, mitigation (development with low GHF emissions) and adaptation (development that reduces vulnerability to climate change) can be combined in a natural way. The project proposal focuses on two key issues (energy and food security/water availability) and on six key countries/regions (Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, South Africa, West-Africa).

80. The project foresees two phases:

• The first one (May 2002 to April 2003) will concentrate on an analytical framework and the organisation of national and international dialogues. The framework will be based on a literature review exploring methods to link sustainable development to climate change.

• The second phase (May 2003 to April 2005) will establish full-scale national studies analysing long-term development strategies on energy and food security. It will involve actors, stakeholders and decision-makers in order to find examples of development actions that lead to positive results dealing with climate change and integrate strategies to meet development objectives and help control climate change.

81. The OECD is collaborating with the organisers, so that they may build on interim products from the OECD project (e.g. the literature review and the analytical framework for the case studies). The Secretariat has also been asked to join the Steering committee for this collaborative project.

IUCN/IISD project

82. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) have initiated a three-year project aiming to reduce climate-related vulnerability of communities, particularly the poor and the marginalised (IUCN/IISD 2002). It has established an advisory Task Force on Climate Change, Vulnerable Communities and Adaptation to provide guidance on the use of environmental tools to reduce climate-related vulnerability. The Task Force is composed of a multidisciplinary group of experts from the fields of climate change, disaster reduction, sustainable livelihoods and environmental management and policy. The project aims to produce the following outputs:


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• Case studies that improve understanding of the factors which shape vulnerability to climate-related disasters and climate change, and the options for adaptation within natural resource management policy frameworks

• Guidelines for reducing the vulnerability of communities to climate change and climate-related disasters, using environmental management tools

• A network of policy institutions for assessing sources of vulnerability of climate change and climate-related disasters

83. The three-year project foresees three phases:

• The initial phase includes preparing a conceptual framework and a web-based platform to improve access to information on climate change adaptation

• The second phase concentrates on case studies undertaken by local experts. Proposed studies include flooding in Bangladesh and El Salvador, droughts in India, and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Also some regional workshops should create a network of political institutions at the regional and national level

• Phase three will synthesise and evaluate the knowledge base in order to build a toolkit identifying environmental management actions to reduce vulnerability to climate change and climate-related disasters. This toolkit is meant to be useful for the governmental and intergovernmental agencies, vulnerability and adaptation researcher, conservation and humanitarian groups, and private investors

84. The first phase of the project is underway and expected to be completed in late 2001.

AIACC project

85. The Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) project is being implemented by UNEP, and executed by the Global Change System for Analysis Research and Training (START) and the Third World Academy of Science (TWAS). Funded by the GEF ($ 7,5 million) and the Canadian International Development Agency ($ 200.000) the project will include two activities:

• Regional studies. 20 three-year studies were selected via an expert peer-review process from over 140 pre-proposals submitted to AIACC. The purpose of the studies is to assess impacts and vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation responses. The studies are distributed throughout Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Small Island States.

• Training and technical support for participants in the regional studies

86. The expected outcomes should enhance scientific capacity in developing countries for continued research on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

87. A kick-off meeting from 11-15 February, 2002was hosted by UNEP in Nairobi, Kenya. Two training workshops are planned for this year and regional workshops will be held in 2002 and 2004. The workshops will provide opportunities for collaboration and transfer of knowledge and skills between participants from the different AIACC studies as well as for regional comparison and integration of results


28

from the individual studies. It is unlikely that the OECD Project will be able to build on these studies, since their results will not be available in the literature for at least another three years.

CPACC project

88. The Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) project was completed in 2001. It was implemented by the World Bank with twelve Caribbean countries12 with the aim of the project being to prepare these countries to cope with the adverse effects of global climate change. The project focused on sea level rise in coastal and marine areas through vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning, and capacity building linked to adaptation planning.

89. The Project is funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), implemented by the World Bank and executed by the Organisation of American States. The project is co-ordinated in the Caribbean through the Regional Project Implementation Unit (RPIU), which was established by the UWI Centre for Environment and Development (UWICED). A Policy Advisory Committee, chaired by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), provided overall guidance for implementation of activities.

90. More specifically, the project assisted national governments to:

• Strengthen the regional capability for monitoring and analysing climate and sea level dynamics and trends, seeking to determine the immediate and potential impacts of global climate change

• Identify areas particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and sea level rise

• Develop an integrated management and planning framework for cost-effective response and adaptation to the impacts of global climate change on coastal and marine areas

• Enhance regional and national capabilities for preparing for the advent of global climate change through institutional strengthening and human resource development; and

• Identify and assess policy options and instruments that may help initiate the implementation of a long-term program of adaptation to global climate change in vulnerable coastal areas.

91. The project description of 1997 and a variety of country/issue related reports are available at http://www.cpacc.org. A final project report is forthcoming (World Bank, 2002 forthcoming).

The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOIZS)

92. The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOIZS) project is one of eleven elements of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGPB). Started in 1993, it focuses on the area of the earth’s surface where land, ocean and atmosphere meet and interact. The overall goal of this project is to determine at regional and global scales:

• The nature of that dynamic interaction;

12. Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St. Kitts and

Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago


29

• How changes in various components of the Earth system are affecting coastal zones and altering their role in global cycles;

• To assess how future changes in these areas will affect their use by people and;

• To provide a sound scientific basis for future integrated management of coastal areas on a sustainable basis

93. The LOICZ Implementation Plan provides a blueprint of research and integrative activities ideal to fully meet the project goals. Achieving a truly global network of coastal scientists and the active participation of scientists from developing countries is vital to the ultimate success of this project. Whilst the objective of LOICZ is not to undertake coastal zone management, a clear goal is to provide a sound scientific basis for the future sustainable use and integrated management of these environments, under conditions of global change.

94. One of the core projects is the development of a coastal typology. A database has been established as the first stage. This data set and a variety of reports and studies are available at http://www.nioz.nl/loicz/


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Annex 5: List of Particpants DEVELOPMENT and CLIMATE CHANGE

OECD Informal Expert Meeting, 13-14 March 2002

INVITED EXPERTS Dr. Shardul AGRAWALA13 Associate Research Scientist International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) Columbia University Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory 61 Rt. 9W Palisades NY 10964-8000 United States of America Tel: +1 845 680 4460 Fax: +1 845 680 4864 Email: [email protected]

Dr. Edmundo DE ALBA ALCARAZ Principal Advisor Secretariat of Research and Development National University of Mexico University City Mexico D.F. Mexico Tel: +52 5 622 4276 Fax: +52 5 606 1043 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Ian BURTON University of Toronto 72 Coolmine Road Toronto M6J 3E9 Canada Tel: +1 416 739 4314 Fax: +1 416 739 4297 Email: [email protected]

Prof. Lin ERDA Director Agrometeorology Institute Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences 12, ZhongGuanCun South Street Beijing 100081 P.R.China Tel: +8610 6211 9688 Fax: +8610 6211 9688 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Terry CANNON Natural Resources Institute University of Greenwich Central Avenue Chatham Maritime Kent ME4 4TB United Kingdom Tel: +44 1634 883025 (direct) Tel: +44 1634 880088 / 883086 Fax: +44 1634 8837 Email: [email protected]

Dr. Amit GARG Expert Consultant MoEF-UNDP-GEF NATCOM Project Winrock International India 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar New Delhi, 110057 India Tel: +91 11 614 1837 / 614 2965 Extn. 228 Fax: +91 11 614 1837 / 614 6004 Email: [email protected]

13. Mr. Agrawala joined the OECD Secretariat from 22 April 2002.


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Mr. Saleemul HUQ Director, Climate Change Programme International Institute for Environment and Development 3 Endsleigh Street London WC1 0DD United Kingdom Tel: +44 20 7388 2117 Fax: +44 20 7388 2826 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Kishan KUMARSINGH Technical Coordinator - Trade and Environment Environmental Resource Management Environmental Management Authority 8 Elizabeth Street St. Clair, Port of Spain Trinidad West Indies Tel: +1 868 628 8042 Fax: +1 868 628 9122 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Shaheen Rafi KHAN SDPI 3 UN Boulevard G-5 Islamabad Pakistan Tel: +92 51 27 8134 Fax: +92 51 27 8135 Email: [email protected]

Prof. Chris MAGADZA University of Zimbabwe No. 6 Gatwick Close Bluff Hill PO Wetgate Postal Code Harare Zimbabwe Tel: +263 433 1748 Fax: +263 433 1748 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Richard J. T. KLEIN Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Dept. of Global Change and Social Systems P.O. Box 601203 14412 Potsdam Germany Tel: +49 331 2882651 Fax: +49 331 2882642 Email: [email protected]

Prof. Mohan MUNASINGHE Chairman MIND 10 De Fonseka Place Colombo 5 Sri Lanka Tel: +941 500289 Fax: +941 551208 Email: [email protected]

Dr. Mama KONATÉ Deputy Director-General Direction Nationale Meteo-MALI BP 237 BAMAKO Mali Tel: +223 22 21 01 Fax: +223 22 21 01 Email: [email protected] or [email protected] or [email protected] or [email protected]

Dr. Parvaiz NAIM Head, Regional Program Regional Environment Assessment Program IUCN Asia PO Box 3923 Bakhundole, Lalitpur Kathmandu Nepal Tel: +9771 528781 Fax: +9771 536786 Email: [email protected]


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Mr. Ademar RIBEIRO ROMEIRO Rua Dr. Gabriel Porto 80 - Cidade Universitária Campinas - SP 13083-210 Brasil Tel: +55 19 3252 5977 Fax: +55 19 3254 1100 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Gary W. YOHE Department of Economics Wesleyan University 238 Church Street Middletown, CT 06459 United States of America Tel: + 1 860 685 3658 Fax: + 1 860 685 2781 Email: [email protected]

Dr. Agus P. SARI Executive Director Pelangi Jalan Danau Tondano A-4 Pejompongan Jakart 10210 Indonesia Tel: +62 21 573 5020 or 571 9360 or 571 9361 Fax: +62 21 573 2503 Email: [email protected]

RIVM Mr. Bert METZ Head International Environmental Assessment Division National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) PO Box 1 Bilthoven 3720 BA Netherlands Tel: +31 30 274 3990 Fax: +31 30 274 4464 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Joel B. SMITH Stratus Consulting Inc. P.O. Box 4059 Boulder, CO 80306 4059 United States of America Tel: +1 303 381 8218 Fax: +1 303 381 8200 Email: [email protected]

IUCN / IISD Mr. Brett ORLANDO Climate Change Focal Point Policy and Global Change Group IUCN-The World Conservation Union Rue Mauverney 28 Gland 1196 Switzerland Tel: +41 22 999 0001 Fax: +41 22 999 0025 Email: [email protected]

Mr. John VIRDIN World Resources Institute 10 G Street, NE, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20002 United States of America Tel: +1 202 729 7722 Email: [email protected]

UNCCD Mr. G. de KALBERMATTEN Principal Coordinator United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Martin Luther-Kingstr. 8 53175 Bonn Germany Tel: +49 228 815 2824 Fax: +49 228 815 2899 Email: [email protected]


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UNEP Mr. Lasse RINGIUS Senior Researcher UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy & Environment P.O. Box 49 4000 Roskilde Denmark Tel: +45 46 77 5131 Fax: +45 46 32 1999 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Luis F. GUADARRAMA Advisor for Planning Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Lat. Periferico Sur 4209 – 2º piso Col. Jardines en la Montana 14210 Mexico Tel: +52 55 56 28 08 51 Fax: +52 55 56 28 07 94 Email: [email protected]

UNFCCC Mr. George MANFUL Head, Capacity Building/GEF Unit Implementation Programme UN FCCC Secretariat P.O. Box 260124 53153 Bonn Germany Tel: +49 228 815 1407 Fax: +49 228 815 1999 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Akio TAKEMOTO Second Secretary Permanent Delegation of Japan to the OECD 11, avenue Hoche 75008 Paris France Tel: +33 1 53 76 61 82 Fax: +33 1 45 63 05 44 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Youssef NASSEF Programme Officer, LDCs/Adaption UN FCCC Secretariat P.O. Box 260124 53153 Bonn Germany Tel: +49 228 815 1416 Fax: +49 228 815 1999 Email: [email protected]

WORKING PARTY ON DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION AND ENVIRONMENT Mr. Josef GAMPERL Senior Environmental Adviser KfW Palmengartenstrasse 5-9 60325 Frankfurt Germany Tel: +49 69 7431 2273 Fax: +49 69 7431 3746 Email: [email protected]

ENVIRONMENT WORKING PARTY ON GLOBAL AND STRUCTURAL POLICIES Mr. Jai-Chul CHOI Counsellor Permanent Delegation of Korea to the OECD 2-4 rue Louis David 75016 Paris France Tel: +33 1 44 05 20 52 Fax: +33 1 47 55 86 70 Email: [email protected]

Ms. Liza LECLERC Policy Analyst - Climate Change Environment Division, Policy Branch CIDA 200 Promenade du Portage Hull, Quebec K1A 0G4 Canada Tel: +1 819 994 3924 Fax: +1 819 953 5229 Email: [email protected]


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Mr. Holger LIPTOW Head of Project Climate Protection Programme GTZ-44 Postfach 51 80 65726 Eschborn Germany Tel: +49 6196 79 1352 Mobile: +49 151 1216 2803 Fax: +49 6196 79 801352 E-Mail: [email protected]

Ms. Maresa Oosterman The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs PO Box 20061 2500 EB The Hague The Netherlands Tel: +31 70 348 6486 Fax: + 31 70 348 4848 Email: [email protected]


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OECD SECRETARIAT 2, rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France

Mr. Martin BERG Tel: +33 1 45 24 16 86 Intern, Global and Structural Policies Division Fax: +33 1 45 24 78 76 Environment Directorate Email: [email protected] Mr. Georg CASPARY Tel: +33 1 45 24 96 18 Administrator, Strategic Management of Development Co- Fax: +33 1 44 30 61 47 operation Division Email: [email protected] Development Co-operation Directorate Ms. Maria CONSOLATI Tel: +33 1 45 24 89 61 Administrative Assistant, Strategic Management of Fax: +33 1 44 30 61 47 Development Co-operation Division Email: [email protected] Development Co-operation Directorate Mrs. Jan CORFEE MORLOT Tel: +33 1 45 24 79 24 Principal Administrator, Global and Structural Policies Division Fax: +33 1 45 24 78 76 Environment Directorate Email: [email protected] Mr. Paul ISENMAN Tel: +33 1 45 24 94 70 Head, Strategic Management of Development Co- Fax: +33 1 44 30 61 47 operation Division Email: [email protected] Development Co-operation Directorate Mr. Tom JONES Tel: +33 1 45 24 98 70 Head, Global and Structural Policies Division Fax: +33 1 45 24 78 76 Environment Directorate Email: [email protected] Mr. David O’CONNOR Tel: +33 1 45 24 82 87 Principal Administrator Fax: +33 1 45 24 17 73 Development Centre Email: [email protected] Mr. Remi PARIS Tel: +33 1 45 24 17 46 Principal Administrator, Strategic Management of Fax: +33 1 44 30 61 47 Development Co-operation Division Email: [email protected] Development Co-operation Directorate Ms. Carolyn STURGEON Tel: +33 1 45 24 19 66 Administrative Assistant, Global and Structural Policies Division Fax: +33 1 45 24 78 76 Environment Directorate Email: [email protected]

IEA SECRETARIAT 9, rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris CEDEX 15, France

Mr. Jonathan PERSHING Tel: +33 1 40 57 67 20 Head, Office of Long Term Co-operation and Policy Analysis Fax: +33 1 40 57 67 39 Email: [email protected]


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References

Abramovitz, J. et al. (2001), “Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction”, Background Paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities. World Conservation Union (IUCN), Worldwatch Institute, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and Stockholm Environment Institute/Boston (SEI-B), Gland, Switzerland

Cannon, T. (2002), “Food Security, Development and Climate Change”, Paper presented for consideration and review to the participants of the OECD Informal Expert Meeting on Development and Climate Change 13 and 14 March 2002, Paris [www.oecd.org/env/cc]

Downing, Tom with R. Butterfield, S. Cohen, S. Huq, R. Moss, A. Rahman, Y. Sokona and L. Stephen (2000), Climate Change Vulnerability: Linking Impacts and Adaptation. Report to the Governing Council of the United National Environment Program. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi and Environmental Change Institute , University of Oxford, Oxford. [www.unep.org]

Huq, S. et al. (2002), “Literature Review on Climate Change and Sustainable Development: With Emphasis on Vulnerability and Adaptation in Developing Countries”, Paper presented for consideration and review to the participants of the OECD Informal Expert Meeting on Development and Climate Change 13 and 14 March 2002, Paris

IPCC (2001), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Klein, R.J.T. (2001), Adaptation to Climate Change in German Official Development Assistance– An Inventory of Activities and Opportunities, with a Special Focus on Africa. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit, Eschborn, Germany

Klein, R.J.T. (2002), “Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Sustainable Development”, Paper presented for consideration and review to the participants of the OECD Informal Expert Meeting on Development and Climate Change 13 and 14 March 2002, Paris [www.oecd.org/env/cc]

Munasinghe, M. (2002), “Framework for Analysing the Nexus of Sustainable Development and Climate Change using the Sustainomics Approach”, Paper presented for consideration and review to the participants of the OECD Informal Expert Meeting on Development and Climate Change 13 and 14 March 2002, Paris

OECD (2002a) Integrating the "Rio Conventions" into Development Co-operation, DAC Guidelines Series, Paris

OECD ( 2002b), Working Together towards Sustainable Development: The OECD Experience, Paris


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Sari, A. (2002), “Summary of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in Water, Agriculture, and Forestry Sectors in Indonesia”, Paper presented for consideration and review to the participants of the OECD Informal Expert Meeting on Development and Climate Change 13 and 14 March 2002, Paris [www.oecd.org/env/cc]

Strzepek, K. et al. (2001), “Constructing “Not Implausible” Climate and Economic Scenarios for Egypt”, in Integrated Assessment 2, 139–157

Smit, B. et al. (2001), “Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge et al., 877–912

UNFCCC (1993), Framework Convention on Climate Change: Agenda 21, United Nations, New York, NY, USA

UNFCCC (1995), FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1, Berlin

Virdin, J. (2002), “Applying Principles of collaborative Management of Coastal Resources to Adaptation Planning and Implementation in Small Island States”, Paper presented for consideration and review to the participants of the OECD Informal Expert Meeting on Development and Climate Change 13 and 14 March 2002, Paris [www.oecd.org/env/cc]

World Bank (forthcoming), “Final Report of the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) Project”

Yohe, G. et al. (1999), “Spanning ‘Not Implausible’ Futures to Assess Relative Vulnerability to Climate Change Variability”, Global Environment Change 9, 233–249

Yohe, G. and Tol, R.S.J., (forthcoming 2001), “Indicators for Social and Economic Coping Capacity – Moving Toward a Working Definition of Adaptive Capacity”, Global Environmental Change, 2002

Development and Climate Change in Nepal:

Focus on Water Resources and Hydropower

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Unclassified COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2003)1/FINAL Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 03-Nov-2003 ___________________________________________________________________________________________

English - Or. English ENVIRONMENT DIRECTORATE DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION DIRECTORATE

DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN NEPAL: Focus on Water Resources and Hydropower

JT00152898


CO

M/E

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D/D

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3

FOREWORD

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity jointly overseen by the EPOC Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the DAC Network on Environment and Development Co-operation (ENVIRONET). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Insights from the work are expected to have implications for the development assistance community in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.

This document has been authored by Shardul Agrawala. It draws upon three primary consultant inputs commissioned for this project: “Nepal’s Hydropower Sector: Climate Change, GLOFs and Adaptation” by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Bangkok, Thailand (Vivian Raksakulthai); “Review of Development Plans, Strategies, Assistance Portfolios, and Select Projects Potentially Relevant to Climate Change in Nepal” by Maarten van Aalst of Utrecht University, The Netherlands; and “Analysis of GCM scenarios and Ranking of Principal Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Nepal” by Stratus Consulting, Boulder, USA (Peter Larsen and Joel Smith). Valuable insights were also provided by experts, government officials, donor and NGO representatives at a consultative workshop organized in connection with this project in Kathmandu on March 5-6, 2003 by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of His Majesty’s Government of Nepal and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC). An additional contribution was solicited from John Reynolds of Reynolds GeoSciences, UK.

In addition to delegates from WPGSP and ENVIRONET, comments from Tom Jones, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Georg Caspary, and Remy Paris of the OECD Secretariat are gratefully acknowledged. Editorial inputs on an early draft were provided by Nipun Vats (Princeton University), and Martin Berg provided project assistance. ADPC would like to acknowledge the help and expertise provided by Adarsha Prokherel, Madan Lall Shreshtha, Arun Shreshtha, and other staff of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology; John Reynolds of Reynolds GeoSciences; Sredhar Devkota and Ajoy Karki of the GTZ Small Hydropower Project; Tony Carvalho of USAID’s hydropower program; Tek Gurung of UNDP; and Krish Krishnan at International Resources Group. The Secretariat and Maarten van Aalst would like to acknowledge several members of the OECD DAC who provided valuable materials on country strategies as well as specific projects. Stratus Consulting would like to acknowledge inputs from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

This document does not necessarily represent the views of either the OECD or its Member countries. It is published under the responsibility of the Secretary General.

Further inquiries about either this document or ongoing work on sustainable development and climate change should be directed to: Shardul Agrawala of the OECD Environment Directorate: [email protected], or Georg Caspary of the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate: [email protected].


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD.................................................................................................................................................. 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 6

LIST OF ACCRONYMS................................................................................................................................ 8

1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2. Country background ......................................................................................................................... 9 3. Climate change: trends, scenarios, and key vulnerabilities ............................................................ 12

3.1 Climate trends ........................................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Climate projections ................................................................................................................... 14 3.3 Ranking of impacts and vulnerabilities..................................................................................... 16

4. Attention to climate concerns in national planning ........................................................................ 18 4.1 General overview of development planning in Nepal .............................................................. 18 4.2 Attention to climate concerns in planning documents .............................................................. 19 4.3 Attention to climate concerns in environment focused plans and reports................................. 21

5. Attention to climate concerns in donor activities ........................................................................... 22 5.1 Donor activities affected by climate risks................................................................................. 23 5.2 Attention to climate risks in donor strategies............................................................................ 27

6. Climate change, glacial lakes and hydropower .............................................................................. 28 6.1 Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOFs) ................................................................................ 29 6.2 Variability of river runoff ......................................................................................................... 32

7. Analysis of adaptation options for GLOF risks and streamflow variability................................... 33 7.1 Siting in non-threatened locations ............................................................................................ 33 7.2 Smaller hydropower plants ....................................................................................................... 34 7.3 Reduction in GLOF risks .......................................................................................................... 35 7.4 Incorporation of future reduced generation capacity in design................................................. 37 7.5 Integrated water resource and disaster management................................................................. 37 7.6 Energy supply and demand management.................................................................................. 38

8. Towards prioritization of climate responses in the hydropower sector.......................................... 39 8.1 GLOF hazards........................................................................................................................... 40 8.2 Hydropower .............................................................................................................................. 40 8.3 Social systems........................................................................................................................... 41

9. Conclusions and further issues ....................................................................................................... 42 9.1 Climate trends, scenarios and impacts ...................................................................................... 42 9.2 Attention to climate change concerns in national planning ...................................................... 42 9.3 Attention to climate change concerns in donor portfolios and projects.................................... 42 9.4 Climate change: water resources and hydropower ................................................................... 43 9.5 Towards mainstreaming climate concerns in development planning: constraints and opportunities .......................................................................................................................................... 43

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 45

ANNEX. SOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND PROJECTS............................................ 48

APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................................... 51

APPENDIX B............................................................................................................................................... 55

APPENDIX C............................................................................................................................................... 57

APPENDIX D............................................................................................................................................... 58


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Boxes

Box 1. A brief description of MAGICC/SCENGEN............................................................................ 15 Box 2. Creditor Reporting System (CRS) Database ................................................................................ 24


6

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the integrated case study for Nepal carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tier framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Nepal are assessed, and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios in Nepal are analyzed to examine the proportion of donor activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for Nepal’s water resources sector which was identified as most vulnerable to climate change. This part of the analysis also involved stakeholder consultation through an in-country workshop to identify key synergies and conflicts between climate change concerns and sectoral projects and plans.

Analysis of recent climatic trends reveals a significant warming trend in recent decades which has been even more pronounced at higher altitudes. Climate change scenarios for Nepal across multiple general circulation models meanwhile show considerable convergence on continued warming, with country averaged mean temperature increases of 1.2°C and 3°C projected by 2050 and 2100. Warming trends have already had significant impacts in the Nepal Himalayas – most significantly in terms of glacier retreat and significant increases in the size and volume of glacial lakes, making them more prone to Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF). Continued glacier retreat can also reduce dry season flows fed by glacier melt, while there is moderate confidence across climate models that the monsoon might intensify under climate change. This contributes to enhanced variability of river flows. A subjective ranking of key impacts and vulnerabilities in Nepal identifies water resources and hydropower as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resource being affected.

Nepal receives between 350-400 million dollars of Official Development Assistance (ODA) annually. Analysis of donor portfolios in Nepal using the OECD-World Bank Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database reveals that between 50-65% of development assistance (by aid amount) or 26-33% of donor projects (by number) are in sectors potentially affected by climate risks. However, these numbers are only indicative at best, given that any classification based on sectors suffers from over-simplification – the reader is referred to the main report for a more nuanced interpretation. Donor and government documents generally do not mention climate change explicitly, although some risks are being taken into account – albeit in a narrow engineering sense – as part of some development activities in Nepal.

The in-depth analysis of water resources in Nepal identifies two critical impacts of climate change –GLOFs and variability of river runoff – both of which pose significant impacts not only on hydropower, but also on rural livelihoods and agriculture. A preliminary discussion on prioritization of adaptation responses highlights potential for both synergies and conflict with development priorities. Micro-hydro, for example, serves multiple rural development objectives, and could also help diversify GLOF hazards. On the other hand, storage hydro might conflict with development and environmental objectives, but might be a potential adaptation response to increased variability in stream-flow and reduced dry season flows which are anticipated under climate change. Further, while addressing one impact of climate change (low flow), dams could potentially exacerbate vulnerability to another potential impact (GLOFs), as the breach of a dam following a GLOF might result in a second flooding event. Finally, the in-depth analysis also


7

highlights a trans-boundary or regional dimension to certain impacts, highlighting the need for regional co-ordinated strategies to cope with such impacts of climate change.


8

LIST OF ACCRONYMS

ADB CAS COP CRS DANIDA DFID DHM EIA ESCAP GCM GDP GEF GHG GLOF HMG ICIMOD IPCC JICA MOPE MTEF NARMSAP NEA NPC NSSD SDAN SEA UN UNCBD UNCCD UNDP UNEP UNFCCC USAID USCSP WSSD VDC

Asian Development Bank World Bank Country Assistance Strategy Conference of the Parties Creditor Reporting System of the OECD /World Bank Danish International Development Assistance Department for International Development Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Environmental Impact Analysis United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific General Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Greenhouse Gas Glacial Lake Outburst Flood His Majesty’s Government of Nepal International Center for Integrated Mountain Development Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Japan International Cooperation Agency Ministry of Population and Environment Medium Term Expenditure Framework Natural Resource Management Sector Assistance Programme National Electricity Authority National Planning Committee National Strategy for Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal Sectoral Environment Assessment United Nations United Nations Convention on Biodiversity United Nations Convention to combat Desertification United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The United States Agency for International Development United States Country Studies Program World Summit on Sustainable Development Village Development Committee


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1. Introduction

This report presents the integrated case study for Nepal for the OECD Development and Climate Change Project, an activity jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the Network on Environment and Development Co-operation. The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. The Nepal case study was conducted in parallel with six other country case studies in Latin America, Africa, and Asia and the South Pacific region.

Each case study is based upon a three-tiered framework for analysis (Agrawala and Berg 2002):

1. Review of climate trends and scenarios at the country level based upon an examination of results from seventeen recent general circulation models, as well as empirical observations and results published as part of national communications, country studies, and scientific literature. These projections are then used in conjunction with knowledge of socio-economic and sectoral variables to rank key sectoral and regional impacts on the basis of a number of parameters. The goal of this tier is to present a framework to establish priorities for adaptation.

2. Review of economic, environmental, and social plans and projects of both the government and international donors that bear upon the sectors and regions identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change. The purpose of this analysis is to assess the degree of exposure of current development activities and projects to climate risks, as well as the degree of current attention by the government and donors to incorporating such risks in their planning.

3. In-depth analyses at a thematic, sectoral, regional or project level on how to incorporate climate responses within economic development plans and projects, again with a particular focus on natural resource management. In the case of Nepal this in-depth research was conducted in close consultation with government officials, experts and in-country donor representatives. Subsequent to the scoping research a consultative workshop was organized jointly with the Department of Hydrology and Metereology in Kathmandu on March 5-6, 20031. The workshop was attended by the Minister of Water Resources, representatives from the National Planning Commission as well as relevant government agencies, academia, donors, NGOs, and the media. As part of this workshop the participants collectively identified principal climate change impacts and vulnerabilities, and used the Adaptation Decision Matrix to rank adaptation responses along several criteria including effectiveness, cost, as well as synergies or conflicts with other environmental or development priorities.

2. Country background

Nepal is a land-locked country located in South Asia between India and China. It contains 8 of the 10 highest mountain peaks in the world, including Mount Everest (at 8848 m), although some of its low lying areas are only about 80 m meters above sea level (Figure 1). There is therefore extreme spatial climate variation in Nepal – from a tropical to artic climate within a span of only about 200 kilometers (the size of

1 Consultative Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a focus on Hydrological Regime, Kathmandu,

March 5-6 2003 (Appendix A).


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an average grid box in a climate model). Nepal is divided into five geographic regions: Terai plan, Siwalik hills, Middle Mountains, High Mountains (consisting of the Main Himalayas and the Inner Himalayan Valleys), and the High Himalayas (Table 1).

Figure 1. Geographical location and topography of Nepal


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Table 1. Geographic regions of Nepal

Region Geology and soil Elevation (masl)

Climate Average Temp.

Terai Gently sloping, recently deposited alluvium 200 Humid tropical > 25OC Siwaliks Testing mudstone, siltstone, sandstone. Steep

slopes and weakly consolidated bedrock. Tends to promote surface erosion despite thick vegetation

200-1500 Moist subtropical 25OC

Middle Mountains

Phyllite, schists, quartzite, granite, limestone. Stony and course textured soil. Conifer forests commonly found associated with quartzite

1000-2500 Temperate 20OC

High Mountains Phyllite, schists, quartzite. Soil is generally shallow and resistant to weathering

2200-4000 Cool to sub-alpine 10-15OC

High Himalayas Limestone and shale. Physical weathering predominates, stony soils

> 4000 Alpine to arctic < 0 to 5OC

Source: CST Nepal 1997

Nepal has a population of 23 million. Compared to other Asian countries such as India or Bangladesh, it has a relatively low population density. However, the population is overwhelmingly rural, with only 12% living in urban areas (World Bank, 2002). Consequently, rural population density is relatively high at 686 people per square kilometer, a figure that exceeds that for most low income countries (World Bank, 2002). Additionally, nearly 100,000 Bhutanese refugees are located in seven United Nations refugee camps throughout the country (CIA, 2002).

Despite its natural beauty and enormous potential for hydropower and tourism, Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, with 82.5% of the population living below the international poverty line of $2 per day (World Bank 2003). A Gini coefficient2 of 0.37 indicates that income distribution is somewhat uneven. In fact, some 38% of the population survives on less than US$1 per day. The wealthiest 20% of the population claims nearly 45% of total annual national income, while the poorest 20% can claim only 7.6%. Aggregate funding from various international agencies constitutes approximately 45% of Nepal’s entire government expenditure (World Bank, 2002).

Nepal’s economy is overwhelmingly dependent on agriculture. Approximately 40% of the country’s GDP came from agriculture in 2000, down from 52% in 1990. Agriculture also provides a livelihood to nearly 81% of the labor force. In addition, because Nepal is a major tourist destination, a significant fraction of foreign earned income is dependent on the country’s natural resources. Tourism receipts in 2000 amounted to 15% of exports. A heavy reliance on tourism and agriculture makes Nepal’s economy very sensitive to climate variability (World Bank, 2002).

It is difficult to determine Nepal’s potential to adapt to climate change, but several key statistics many give some insight as to the state of its infrastructure and social and human capital. While only 31% of Nepal’s 13,223 km of highway are paved (World Bank, 2002), this percentage is almost twice that for other low income countries. The relationship between paved highways (or development more generally) and vulnerability is not clear. While a greater number of roads or a greater percentage of paved roads might imply a higher level of development, and ceteris parebis a higher coping capacity, it might also imply increased social exposure to climate hazards. For example, development of highways along river valleys in

2 The Gini coefficient is a number between zero and one that measures the degree of inequality in the distribution of income in a given society. The coefficient would

register zero inequality for a society in which each member received exactly the same income and it would register a coefficient of one (maximum inequality) if one

member got all the income and the rest got nothing.


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particular might encourage settlements in regions that are most vulnerable to flooding from extreme precipitation or glacial lake outbursts.

Nepal’s electricity infrastructure is heavily reliant on hydroelectric power: nearly 91% of the nation’s power comes from this source. Hydroelectric plants are highly dependent on predictable runoff patterns. Therefore, increased climate variability, which can affect frequency and intensity of flooding and droughts, could affect Nepal severely. Also, according to the World Bank (2002), there were only three personal computers and 11 telephone main lines per 1,000 people in Nepal in 2000, lower than the average for countries of similar income. Nepal has a literacy rate of 58% (World Bank, 2002), suggesting relatively low levels of education and limited technical capabilities. A gross secondary school enrolment rate of 47% compares favorably with other low income countries. However, gross tertiary enrolment of only 3% is well below low income country averages. And, of this 3%, only 13% study sciences and engineering (World Bank, 2002). These figures suggest a relatively limited technical capacity which might make it difficult for Nepal to design and implement measures to adapt effectively to climate change. Figure 2 provides an indication of how Nepal compares to other low income countries in terms of four key indices of development.

Figure 2. Development diamond for Nepal

Nepal

Low-income group

D evelo pment diamo nd

Life expectancy

Access to improved water source

GNIpercapita

Grossprimary

enro llment

Source: World Bank, 2002

3. Climate change: trends, scenarios, and key vulnerabilities

The climate in Nepal varies from the tropical to the arctic within the 200 km span from south to north. Much of Nepal falls within the monsoon region, with regional climate variations largely being a function of elevation. National mean temperatures hover around 15 °C, and increase from north to south with the exception of mountain valleys. Average rainfall is 1,500 mm, with rainfall increasing from west to east. The northwest corner has the least rainfall, situated as it is in the rain shadow of the Himalayas. Rainfall also varies by altitude; areas over 3,000 m experience a lot of drizzle, while heavy downpours are common below 2,000 m (USCSP 1997). Although annual rainfall is abundant, its distribution is of great concern: flooding is frequent in the monsoon season during the summer, while droughts are not uncommon in certain regions in other parts of the year.


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3.1 Climate trends

Temperature observations in Nepal from 1977-1994 show a general warming trend (Shreshtha et al. 1999), as shown in Figure 3. The temperature differences are most pronounced during the dry winter season, and least during the height of the monsoon. There is also significantly greater warming at higher elevations in the northern part of the country than at lower elevations in the south. This finding is reinforced by observations by Liu and Chen (2000) on the other side of the Himalayas on the Tibetan Plateau (Figure 4). Significant glacier retreat as well as significant areal expansion of several glacial lakes has also been documented in recent decades, with an extremely high likelihood that such impacts are linked to rising temperatures.

Figure 3. Pattern of temperature increase in Nepal 1977-1994 ○C/year (Shrestha et. al. 1999


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Figure 4. Temperature increase (per decade) as a function of elevation on the Tibetan Plateau (Liu and Chen 2000)

There are no definitive trends in aggregate precipitation, although there is some evidence of more intense precipitation events. A somewhat clearer picture emerges in stream flow patterns in certain rivers where there has been an increase in the number of flood days. Some rivers are also exhibiting a trend towards a reduction in dependable flows in the dry season, which has implications both for water supply and energy generation (Shakya 2003). Glacier retreat also contributes significantly to streamflow variability in the spring and summer, while glacial lake outbursts which are becoming more likely with rising temperatures, are an additional source of flooding risk.

3.2 Climate projections

Changes in area averaged temperature and precipitation over Nepal were assessed based upon over a dozen recent general circulation models (GCMs) using a new version of MAGICC/SCENGEN (Wigley and McGinnis, draft). MAGICC/SCENGEN is briefly described in Box 1. First, results for Nepal from 17 GCMs developed since 1995 were examined. Next, 7 of the 17 models which best simulate current climate over Nepal were selected. The models were run with the IPCC B2 SRES scenario (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000)3. The spread in temperature and precipitation projections of these 7 GCMs for various years in the future provides an estimate of the degree of agreement across various models for particular projections. More consistent projections across various models will tend to have lower scores for the standard deviation relative to the mean.

3 The B2 scenario assumes a world of moderate population growth and intermediate level of economic development and technological change. SCENGEN estimates a

mean global temperature increase of 0.8 °C by 2030, 1.2 °C by 2050, and 2 °C by 2100 for the B2 scenario.


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Box 1. A brief description of MAGICC/SCENGEN

MAGICC/SCENGEN is a coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial climate-change scenario generator (SCENGEN). MAGICC is a Simple Climate Model that computes the mean global surface air temperature and sea-level rise for particular emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and sulphur dioxide (Raper et al., 1996). MAGICC has been the primary model used by IPCC to produce projections of future global-mean temperature and sea level rise (see Houghton et al., 2001). SCENGEN is a database that contains the results of a large number of GCM experiments. SCENGEN constructs a range of geographically-explicit climate change scenarios for the world by exploiting the results from MAGICC and a set of GCM experiments, and combining these with observed global and regional climate data sets. SCENGEN uses the scaling method of Santer et al. (1990) to produce spatial pattern of change from an extensive data base of atmosphere ocean GCM – AOGCM (atmosphere ocean general circulation models) data. Spatial patterns are “normalized” and expressed as changes per 1°C change in global-mean temperature. The greenhouse-gas and aerosol components are appropriately weighted, added, and scaled up to the actual global-mean temperature. The user can select from a number of different AOGCMs for the greenhouse-gas component. For the aerosol component there is currently only a single set of model results. This approach assumes that regional patterns of climate change will be consistent at varying levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The MAGICC component employs IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) science (Houghton et al., 2001). The SCENGEN component allows users to investigate only changes in the mean climate state in response to external forcing. It relies mainly on climate models run in the latter half of the 1990s.

Source: National Communications Support Program Workbook

The results of the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis for Nepal are shown in Table 2. There is a significant and consistent increase in temperatures projected for Nepal for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 across the various climate models. Increases in temperatures are somewhat larger for the winter months than the summer months. Climate models also project an overall increase in annual precipitation. However, given the high standard deviation the results for annual precipitation should be interpreted with caution. Even more speculative is the slight increase in winter precipitation. The signal however is somewhat more pronounced for the increase in precipitation during the summer monsoon months (June, July and August). This is because models estimate that air over land will warm more than air over oceans, leading to an amplification of the summer low pressure system that is responsible for the monsoon. These results are broadly consistent, though more pronounced than the Country Study for Nepal that was based on outputs from four older generation GCMs, only two of which simulated the summer monsoon and its intensification under the carbon dioxide doubling (Yogacharya and Shreshtha 1997).


16

Table 2. GCM estimates of temperature and precipitation changes for Nepal

Temperature change (°C) mean (standard deviation)

Precipitation change (%) mean (standard deviation)

Year Annual DJF4 JJA5 Annual DJF JJA Baseline average 1433 mm 73 mm 894 mm 2030 1.2 (0.27) 1.3 (0.40) 1.1 (0.20) 5.0 (3.85) 0.8 (9.95) 9.1 (7.11) 2050 1.7 (0.39) 1.8 (0.58) 1.6 (0.29) 7.3 (5.56) 1.2 (14.37) 13.1 (10.28) 2100 3.0 (0.67) 3.2 (1.00) 2.9 (0.51) 12.6 (9.67) 2.1 (25.02) 22.9 (17.89)

Thus based on this analysis there is reasonably high confidence that the warming trend already observed in recent decades will continue through the 21st century. There is also moderate confidence that the summer monsoon might intensify, thereby increasing the risk of flooding and landslides.

3.3 Ranking of impacts and vulnerabilities

The necessity of suitable responses to climate change not only relies on the degree of certainty associated with projections of various climate parameters (discussed in the previous section), but also in the significance of any resulting impacts from these changes on natural and social systems. Further, development planners often require a ranking of impacts, as opposed to a catalog that is typical in many climate assessments, in order to make decisions with regard to how much they should invest in planning or mainstreaming particular response measures. Towards this goal, this section provides a subjective but reasonably transparent ranking of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for particular sectors in Nepal.

Vulnerability is a subjective concept that includes three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the affected system (Smit et al. 2001). The sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the affected system in particular depend on a range of socio-economic characteristics of the system. Several measures of social well-being such as income and income inequality, nutritional status, access to lifelines such as insurance and social security, and so on can affect baseline vulnerability to a range of climatic risks. Other factors meanwhile might be risk specific – for example proportion of rainfed (as opposed to irrigated) agriculture might only be relevant for assessing vulnerability to drought. There are no universally accepted, objective means for “measuring” vulnerability. This section instead subjectively ranks biophysical vulnerability based on the following dimensions 6:

• Certainty of impact. This factor uses our knowledge of climate change to assess the likelihood of impacts. Temperatures and sea levels are highly likely to rise and some impacts can be projected based on this. Changes in regional precipitation are less certain. We use the MAGICC/SCENGEN outputs to address relative certainty about changes in direction of mean precipitation. Changes in climate variability are uncertain. The Intergovernmental Panel on

4 December, January, February

5 June, July, August

6 A comprehensive vulnerability assessment would have necessitated collection/aggregation of a range of socio-economic variables at a sub-national scale, and was beyond the scope of this desk analysis.


17

Climate Change (Houghton et al., 2001) concluded that higher maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely, more intense precipitation is very likely over most areas, and that more intense droughts, increased cyclone wind speeds and precipitation are likely over some areas.

• Timing. When are impacts in a particular sector likely to become severe or critical? Based on available information, we considered whether impacts are likely to become so in the first or second half of this century.

• Severity of impact. How large could climate change impacts be? Essentially this factor considers the sensitivity of a sector to climate change. For the most part, we did not consider the ability of adaptation to cope with climate change impacts.

• Importance of the sector. Is the sector particularly critical in terms of its size of economy, cultural or other importance, or its potential to affect other sectors? This factor considers exposure of the sector to climate change, that is, how many people, property, or other valuable assets could be affected by climate change.

A score of high, medium, or low for each factor is then assigned for each assessed sector. In ranking the risks from climate change, the scoring for all four factors was considered, but the most weight was placed on the certainty of impact. Impacts that are most certain, most severe, and most likely to become severe in the first half of the 21st century are ranked the highest. The results of this analysis are summarized in Table 3 7.

Table 3. Priority ranking of climate change impacts for Nepal

Resource/ranking Certainty of

impact

Timing of impact

(urgency) Severity of

impact Importance of

resource Water resources and Hydropower High High High High Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low Medium High Human health Low Medium Uncertain High Ecosystems/Biodiversity Low Uncertain Uncertain Medium-high

Water resources and hydropower rank significantly higher than any other sector for several reasons.

First, a number of impacts on water resources and hydropower are directly related to rising temperatures that have already been observed, and are projected (with high confidence) to increase further over the coming decades. This includes glacier retreat that in turn causes greater variability (and eventual reduction) in streamflow, and glacial lake outburst floods that pose significant risk to hydropower facilities, and also to other infrastructure and human settlements. GLOFs are not hypothetical, as such events have already had significant impacts in Nepal, the most significant being the near total destruction of the newly built Namche Bazaar hydropower facility in 1985. Other climate induced risks to water resources and hydropower facilities include: flooding, landslides, and sedimentation from more intense precipitation events (particularly during the monsoon), as well as greater unreliability of dry season flows that poses potentially serious risks to water and energy supplies in the lean season. The significance of water 7 This ranking is focussed primarily on biophysical risks and does not explicitly include a detailed analysis of socioeconomic and demographic factors that

might mediate vulnerability, which was beyond the scope of this study. The ranking however is broadly consistent with views expressed by national climate and development experts at a consultative workshop organized in connection with this project.


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resources to agriculture, and the significance of hydropower to the nations electricity supply (a 92% share) further justify the high ranking for water resources and hydropower.

The impacts of climate change on other sectors tend to be less direct and/or less immediate, and much more speculative – even though the sectors themselves are quite significant. Three sectors that fall in this cluster are agriculture, human health, and ecosystems/biodiversity. Agriculture is very important for the country because a large portion of its output and labor force are devoted to it. From the limited information available, it appears to have moderate sensitivity to climate change. Our judgment is that significant impacts may not be seen for many decades unless there are substantial flood impacts. The direct impacts of climate change on agriculture seem relatively low.

Human health is ranked below water resources and agriculture mainly because of the significant uncertainty about many impacts, although it is likely that climate change will present health risks to Nepal from increased exposure to floods and vector-borne illnesses. We do not know how significant the health effects could be. The health related effects of flooding could be apparent in the near term, but other health effects may not become apparent for many decades.

Finally, ecosystems/biodiversity are ranked last because little historical research has been conducted on the effects of species diversity. Nepal is not a center of endemism, yet its vegetation diversity makes biodiversity an important issue. We are uncertain how sensitive biodiversity will be to climate change or when impacts may be realized.

4. Attention to climate concerns in national planning

From a collection of small, independent states, Nepal was transformed into a monarchy in 1743 when the King of the principality of Gorkha, in resistance of incorporation into the British Empire, united all Nepalese territories under one flag (Shrestha 1998). In 1959, the first national general elections were held. However, the parliament was dissolved by royal decree the next year, and the monarchy’s absolute power was not ended until 1990 when the multiparty system was instituted. Within the multiparty system, the royal family still maintains substantial influence in Nepal. In recent years Nepal has been in the midst of a Maoist insurgency which has severely hampered government activity and daily life during the past several years by calling for strikes. The last elections were scheduled for 13 November 2002, but were postponed indefinitely until the security situation stabilizes. This political instability dampened the tourism industry, which saw a precipitous decline, in addition to discouraging potential investors. Prospects for stability have improved significantly since the government and Maoists declared a ceasefire on 29 January 2003.

4.1 General overview of development planning in Nepal

Development planning in Nepal is under the responsibility of the National Planning Commission (NPC). The NPC releases annual plans and assesses resource needs, in addition to formulating 5-year plans for the country’s general development strategy. Several other agencies are also involved with development, including the Ministry of Finance (MOF), which is responsible for mobilizing and coordinating foreign aid. Nepal is divided into five regional development regions: Eastern; Central; Western; Mid-Western; and Far Western.


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Figure 5. Development regions and districts

Nepal’s planned development began with the First Five Year Plan in 1956, which emphasized building the country’s transport and communication infrastructure. This continued until the Fifth Five Year Plan (1975-1980), when a variety of issues were addressed, including energy were addressed. With 80% or more of the population dependent on agriculture, which is experiencing a fall in productivity with an increase of idle labor, planners are pushing to develop industry, services, and other sectors. However there has been concern that while infrastructure and external trade is a benefit to the country, a large majority of Nepal’s population does not have its basic needs satisfied. This was finally addressed in the Eighth Plan (1992-1997) when the NPC targeted poverty alleviation and reducing regional inequality as two of the main goals (Mishra, 2000). In subsequent years the problems of drinking water, sanitation, health, housing, and primary education were addressed. The country is now in the last year of the ninth five-year plan, and the National Planning Commission recently adopted the Tenth Plan (2002-2007) on 17 December 2002. The total budget for the latest plan amounts to NPR 3.3 billion (USD 41.7 million). The primary goal for the next five years will be poverty alleviation, specifically to bring down poverty to below 30% of the population. At the beginning of the Ninth Plan this figure was 42%. HMG plans to alleviate poverty through programs in the following sectors: agriculture; tourism; communications; financial services and industry; electricity and fuels; strengthening social services; building rural infrastructure; and promoting good governance.

The budget estimates for His Majesty’s Government (HMG) of Nepal for FY2002-03 were released in July, and showed that the Maoist insurgency is likely to have a significant dampening effect on development for some time to come. The economy is experiencing the lowest growth for a decade. The agriculture sector grew just 1.7%, down from 4.2% in 2001. Similarly, non-agriculture sectors grew only 0.2%, compared to 4.9% in the previous year. Tourism arrivals, a large source of foreign exchange for Nepal, saw numbers decline by over 44% due to security concerns. One of the only sectors to experience significant growth this past fiscal year were the utility sectors, including electricity, natural gas, and water. Together they reached almost 15% growth over last year, much of which may be attributed to the completion of the hydropower plants at Kali Gandaki A (144 MW) and Bhote Koshi (36 MW).

4.2 Attention to climate concerns in planning documents

The Tenth Plan, which has just been accepted (December 2002), has been developed as the country’s PRSP. Even more than in the previous Ninth Plan, poverty reduction is the central focus of this new development strategy. The Development Plan is accompanied by a Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), which provides a prioritization of resources and ensures consistency of annual budgets with the 5-year Development Plan.


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The current concept paper for the Tenth Plan acknowledges the important influence weather can have on overall economic performance:“The 10th Plan is being prepared and will be launched in a very difficult time/ GDP is projected to increase only by 2.5 percent in FY 2001/02, which is also the base year for the 10th Plan. The lower growth rate projection is mainly due to lower agricultural growth caused by bad weather conditions8, domestic disturbances and lower external demand following the events of September 11.”

At the same time, this paragraph is the only place in the whole document where the development impacts of weather and climate are mentioned. While many of the proposed development activities may well reduce vulnerability to climate risks, explicit attention to these risks is lacking. Exploration of ways to reduce climate risks, or analysis of the risks themselves, is not included. The only activities dealing directly with climate risks in the activities matrix attached to the Tenth Plan are a couple of emergency management items in the urban development section (construction of emergency shelters and provision of housing for disaster-affected families). The overall Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) does not discuss climate risks either. By itself, this lack of specific climate risk management items is no reason for concern. Ideally, climate risk management would be mainstreamed in many of the sectoral activities in the MTEF and the activities matrix (such as hydropower development and agriculture projects). However, effective mainstreaming requires explicit attention at the policy level. Such attention is not reflected in the Tenth Plan.

An analysis of the sectoral MTEF papers for some of Nepal’s vulnerable sectors underlines the impression that climate change is ignored, and climate risks in general tend to be neglected in the country’s development policy. For instance, the MTEF paper for the power sector does not recognize risks to hydropower plants due to the variability in runoff, floods (including GLOFS), and sedimentation. The MTEF paper for the health sector contains targets for vector-borne disease control and emergency preparedness and disaster management, but does not explicitly discuss natural hazards and climate risks. The MTEF paper for the road sector does not discuss flood and landslide risks, nor does the MTEF paper for water supply and sanitation discuss variability in rainfall, which may strongly affect the success of measures in this sector9. Similarly, the MTEF paper for the irrigation sector does not explicitly mention climate risks. However, its list of outputs includes mitigation of floods and erosion in cultivated areas, and water harvesting to provide year-round water supply for irrigation. Both measures would fit well in an adaptation strategy for Nepalese agriculture.

The MTEF paper for the agriculture sector pays some attention to climate-related risks. For instance, it mentions the criticality of the monsoon season for the sector. On the other hand, it lists the country’s “agro-climatic potential” as an opportunity. Moreover, a review of previous activities showed that outreach had been ineffective, mainly because it had been characterized by a top-down approach and a lack of orientation on small farmers’ problems, namely “rain-fed and poor soils”. Implicitly, this diagnosis identifies climate conditions as one of the challenges that poor farmers face, and that are currently lacking attention. The proposed solution “major research funds to be used in need-based adaptive research” seems unfocused, possibly a reflection of a lack of sufficient information on the importance of climate risks in the agriculture sector, and of a lack of awareness of options to reduce such risks. The document also proposes various other investments to improve the functioning of the agriculture sector that are likely to reduce vulnerability to climate-related risks.

8 Anomalous weather, however, need not be linked to climate change.

9 The MTEF does propose simple solutions for sites where adequate and perennial water sources are lacking, including water-harvesting schemes and solar pumps.

However, the real climate-related risks (what is “adequate” and how do you deal with a water source that is usually perennial but dries up during a period of drought)

are not discussed.


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4.3 Attention to climate concerns in environment focused plans and reports

Nepal has ratified the three Rio Conventions: the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the Convention on Biodiversity (UNCBD). All conventions oblige their signatories to follow a stipulated reporting system.

Nepal’s First Communication to the UNFCCC is currently in its final stages and expected to be submitted sometime in 2003, and is therefore not available for review. Nepal’s most recent national report to the UNCD was prepared for the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-4) to the UNCD in 2000. The report does point to the need for integration of responses to the UNFCCC and UNCD, but few concrete steps are outlined. However, a number of desertification specific responses outlined in the report, for example, integrated watershed management, and community-based soil and water management are in fact no-regrets (or low regrets) measures for adaptation to climate risks.

With regard to the Convention on Biodiversity, Nepal’s Biodiversity Strategy (2002) was prepared under the UNDP/GEF Biodiversity Conservation Project. It lists several climate related risks, including flooding and siltation, as threats to biodiversity conservation. However, the possibility that some of these risks [including both flooding and siltation] could be enhanced significantly under climate change is not discussed explicitly.

Nepal’s Country Profile for the WSSD (2002)10 discusses climate change only in the context of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; adaptation to climate change is not mentioned. However, the section on sustainable mountain development pays attention to indigenous systems of human adaptation to challenging geographic and climatic circumstances in mountainous areas. Furthermore, many elements of the proposed sustainable development policies (designed for current climatic circumstances) would also be no-regrets measures for adaptation to climate change.

Nepal’s National Assessment Report for the World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002) recognizes the links between climatic circumstances and land degradation, erosion and landslides: “in a nutshell, ‘too much water’ and ‘too little water’ is responsible for land degradation in different land uses in Nepal.” It also recognizes the increase in landslide risks due to the effects of paddy cultivation and livestock grazing in the hills and mountains. However, the fact that climate change might increase those risks is not discussed, and adaptation to climate change is not mentioned anywhere. Curiously, the only substantive discussion of risks due to climate change is featured in a paragraph on public awareness. The document mentions that FM radio stations should be used for this purpose: “it will be important to increase awareness of the general public about the so far neglected messages (…) about emerging issues like climate change and its link with increased dangers from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and possible changes in monsoon patterns”. The 2001 Economic Commission for South Asia and the pacific (ESCAP) Nepal Country Paper (prepared for the Ministerial Conference on Infrastructure) meanwhile lists the facilitation of a rapid response to natural emergencies (such as floods or earthquakes) as an important role of infrastructure. Nevertheless, it pays little attention to the risk of extreme weather to the infrastructure itself, although it mentions that rural trails often become impassible during flooding. Since even current risks are not addressed, future risks due to climate change are also missing.

Nepal also has a National Strategy for Sustainable Development (NSSD) under the name of the Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN). The SDAN lists Nepal’s continuing vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and environmental degradation (in that order) among the constraints

10 These Country Profiles were published by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development on the occasion of the World Summit on Sustainable Development

(Johannesburg, 2002). They cover Agenda 21, as well as other issues that have been addressed by the CSD since 1997, and are based on information updated from

that contained in the national reports to the CSD, submitted annually by governments.


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facing Nepal’s Sustainable Development. It also contains a separate section on climate change, which lists the potentially serious consequences for infrastructure, agriculture, drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and biodiversity, and mentions the risk of GLOFs. Climate change is not mentioned as a risk in the context of other sustainable development challenges, except in the case of biodiversity and natural disasters (increasing risk of GLOFs). Broader climate risks, including natural hazards such as floods and droughts, feature prominently, and concrete disaster mitigation measures are proposed (including the establishment of a national disaster preparedness and management agency, the creation of village-level early warning systems for floods, landslides or earthquakes, building decentralized emergency response capacity, enforcing design standards for buildings and infrastructure that take into account site-specific risks, investing in better weather and earthquake prediction systems, and, specifically for GLOFS, monitoring of the lakes and preparation of siphon materials). The discussion in SDAN therefore is consistent with the priority ranking of critical climate impacts listed in Section 3.3 of this report.

The sectoral reports for the SDAN do not mention climate change explicitly, except for the one that contains a specific section on protection of the atmosphere. While this section recognizes the vulnerability of Nepal and lists some expected impacts of global warming, it focuses primarily on mitigation and carbon sequestration. It recognizes the need to build capacity to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change, but offers no concrete measures. The report identifies a number of shortcomings in Nepal’s approach to climate change: the delay of the National Communication to the UNFCCC, the lack of attention in national policy documents, the very low awareness among policy makers and the general public, and the low institutional capacity, also in international negotiations. In the context of climate change mitigation, the report points out that while the potential for CDM projects seems limited, many programs on alternative energy are being implemented without explicit linkage to climate change issues.

5. Attention to climate concerns in donor activities

Nepal receives large amounts of donor aid, of the order of US$ 350 million per year, or about 7% of GNI. The largest donors, in terms of overall investments, are Japan, the Asian Development Bank, and the World Bank (IDA). Figure 6 displays the distribution of this aid by development sector and by donor. Nepal receives large amounts of aid, both in absolute terms and in relation to GNI. Consequently, foreign aid also accounts for the lion share (70%11) of development investments in the country. Hence, while the overall development agenda is of course set by the government of Nepal, the donor agencies have quite a strong say in the strategic choices and ways of implementation of the vast majority of development investments.12 The following sections highlight the possible extent of climate risks to development investments in Nepal, and examine to what extent current and future climate risks are factored in to development strategies and plans.13,14 Analysis of selected donor project and planning documents is provided in Appendix C.

11 Donor review for 2002 Development Forum

12 A recent review of donor aid to Nepal, in the context of the preparations of the government’s tenth National Development Plan, painted a rather bleak picture of the

relationship between the government and the donor community. One of the reasons was the skepticism among donors about the government’s performance and

ownership of development projects. As a result, donors have taken a rather active role in planning and implementing development activities, to the extent that the

national institutional capacity for development has eroded. At the same time, there has been a perception that donors have sometimes lost sight of local priorities and

even seemed more interested in the quantity of aid resources delivered than in their quality and sustainability.

13 Given the large quantity of strategies and projects, the analysis is limited to a selection. This selection was made in three ways (i) a direct request to all OECD DAC

members to submit documentation of relevant national and sectoral strategies, as well as individual projects (ii) a direct search for some of the most important

documents (including for instance Nepal’s national development plan/PRSP, submissions to the various UN conventions, country and sector strategies from

multilateral donors like the World Bank and the ADB, and some of the larger projects in climate-sensitive sectors), and (iii) a pragmatic search (by availability) for

further documentation that would be of interest to the analysis (mainly in development databases and on donors’ external websites). Hence, the analysis is not


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5.1 Donor activities affected by climate risks

The extent to which climate risks affect development activities in Nepal can be partially gauged by examining the sectoral composition of the total aid portfolio. Development activities in water resources, as well as sectors such as agriculture, and health could clearly be affected by climate change as well as current climate variability. At the other end of the spectrum, development activities relating to education, gender equality, and governance reform are much less directly affected by climatic circumstances.

In principle, the sectoral selection should include all development activities that might be designed differently depending on whether or not climate risks are taken into account. Therefore, the label “affected by climate risks” has two dimensions. It includes projects that are at risk themselves, such as an investment that could be destroyed by flooding. But it also includes projects that affect the vulnerability of other natural or human systems. For instance, new roads might be fully weatherproof from an engineering standpoint (even for climatic conditions in the far future), but they might also trigger new settlements in high-risk areas, or it might have a negative effect on the resilience of the natural environment, thus exposing the area to increased climate risks. These considerations should be taken into account in project design and implementation. Hence, these projects are also affected by climate risks.

Figure 6. Development aid to Nepal (1998-2000)

Source: Sources: OECD, World Bank

comprehensive, and its conclusions are not necessarily valid for a wider array of development strategies and activities. Nevertheless, the authors feel confident that

this limited set allows an identification of some common patterns and questions that might be relevant for broader development planning.

14 The phrase “climate risk” or “climate-related risk” is used here for all risks that are related to climatic circumstances, including weather phenomena and climate

variability on various timescales. In the case of Nepal, these risks include the effects of seasonal climate anomalies (like a dry winter or heavy monsoon), extreme

weather events, floods and droughts, as well as trends therein due to climate change. “Current climate risks” refer to climate risks under current climatic conditions,

and “future climate risks” to climate risks under future climatic conditions, including climate change.


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Clearly, any screen for climate change risks that is based solely on sectors suffers from oversimplification. In reality, there is a wide spectrum of exposure to climate risks even within particular sectors. For instance, rain-fed agriculture projects might be much more vulnerable than projects in areas with reliable irrigation. At the same time, the irrigation systems themselves may also be at risk, further complicating the picture. Similarly, most education projects would hardly be affected by climatic circumstances, but school buildings in flood-prone might well be at risk. Without an in-depth examination of risks to individual projects, it is impossible to capture such differences. Hence, the sectoral classification only provides a rough first sense about the share of development activities that might be affected by climate risks.

To capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of development activities affected by climate change was calculated in two ways, a rather broad selection, and a more restrictive one. The first selection includes projects dealing with infectious diseases, water supply and sanitation, transport infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, renewable energy and hydropower15, tourism, urban and rural development, environmental protection, food security, and emergency assistance.16 The second classification is more restricted. First of all, it excludes projects related to transport and storage. In many countries, these projects make up a relatively large share of the development portfolio, simply due to the large size of individual investments (contrary to investments in softer sectors such as environment, education and health). At the same time, infrastructure projects are usually designed on the basis of detailed engineering studies, which should include attention at least to current climate risks to the project.17 Moreover, the second selection excludes food aid and emergency assistance projects. Except for disaster mitigation components (generally a very minor portion of emergency aid), these activities are generally responsive and planned at short notice. The treatment of risks is thus very different from well-planned projects intended to have long-term development benefits. Together, the first and the second selection give an indication of the range of the share of climate-affected development activities.

Box 2. Creditor Reporting System (CRS) Database

The Creditor Reporting System (CRS) comprises of data on individual aid activities on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and official aid (OA). The system has been in existence since 1967 and is sponsored and operated jointly by the OECD and the World Bank. A subset of the CRS consists of individual grant and loan commitments (from 6000 to 35000 transactions a year) submitted by DAC donors (23 members) on a regular basis. Reporters are asked to supply (in their national currency), detailed financial information on the commitment to the developing country such as: terms of repayment (for loans), tying status and sector allocation. The secretariat converts the amounts of the projects into US dollars using the annual average exchange rates.

In addition to the above two selections, the share of emergency-related activities was also calculated.

This category includes emergency response and disaster mitigation projects, as well as flood control. The size of this selection gives an indication of the development efforts that are spent on dealing with natural hazards, including, often prominently, climate and weather related disasters.

The implications of this classification should not be overstated. If an activity falls in the “climate-affected” basket, which does not mean that it would always need to be redesigned in the light of climate

15 Traditional power plants are not included. Despite their long lifetime, these facilities are so localized (contrary to, e.g., roads and other transport infrastructure) that

climate risks will generally be more limited. Due to the generally large investments involved in such plants, they could have a relatively large influence on the

sample, not in proportion with the level of risk involved.

16 A complete list of purpose codes is included in the box on the methodology of the sectoral selections.

17 Note however, that they often lack attention to trends in climate records, and do not take into account indirect risks of infrastructure projects on the vulnerability of

natural and human systems.


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change, or even that one would be able to quantify the extent of current and future climate risks. Instead, the only implication is that climate risks could well be a factor to consider among many other factors to be taken into account in the design of development activities. In some cases, this factor could be marginal. In others, it may well be substantial. In any case, these activities would benefit from a consideration of these risks in their design phase. Hence, one would expect to see some attention being paid to them in project documents, and related sector strategies or parts of national development plans. Figures 7 and 8 show the results of these selections, for the three years 1998, 1999, and 200018, using the OECD/World Bank Credit Reporting System (CRS) database (Box 2).

Figure 7. Share of aid amounts committed to activities affected by climate risk and to emergency in Nepal (1998-2000)

Affected by climate risks(high estimate)

65%

35%

Affected by climate risks(low estimate)

50%50%

Emergency Activities

99%

1%

18 The three-year sample is intended to even out year-to-year variability in donor commitments. At the time of writing, 2000 was the most recent year for which final

CRS data were available. Note that coverage of the CRS is not yet complete: coverage ratios were 83% in 1998, 90% in 1999, and 95% in 2000. Coverage ratios of

less than 100% mean that not all ODA/OA activities have been reported in the CRS. For example, data on technical co-operation are missing for Germany and

Portugal (except since 1999), and partly missing for France and Japan. Some aid extending agencies of the United States prior to 1999 do not report their activities

to the CRS. Greece, Luxembourg and New Zealand do not report to the CRS. Ireland has started to report in 2000. Data are complete on loans by the World Bank,

the regional banks (the Inter-American Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the African Development Bank) and the International Fund for

Agricultural Development. For the Commission of the European Communities, the data cover grant commitments by the European Development Fund, but are

missing for grants financed from the Commission budget and loans by the European Investment Bank (EIB). For the United Nations, the data cover the United

Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) since 2000, and a significant proportion of aid activities of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for 1999. No

data are yet available on aid extended through other United Nations agencies. Note also that total aid commitments in the CRS are not directly comparable to the

total ODA figures in Figure 5, which exclude most loans.


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Figure 8. Share (by number) committed to activities affected by climate risk and to emergency activities in Nepal (1998-2000)


33%

67%


26%

74%

Emergency Activities

99%

1%

In monetary terms, between half and two-thirds of all development activities in Nepal could be affected by climate change. By number, the shares are somewhat lower; between a quarter and half of the activities would be affected.19 Emergency projects make up about 1% of all activities. In addition to providing insight in the sensitivity of development activities in Nepal as a whole, the classification also gives a sense of the relative exposure of various donors20. These results are listed in Table 4 and 5 (again for the years 1998, 1999, and 2000).21

19 Note that the number of activities gives a less straightforward indication than the dollar amounts. First of all, activities are listed in the CRS in each year when a

transfer of aid has occurred. Hence, when a donor disburses a particular project in three tranches, that project counts three times in the three-year sample. If the

financing for a similar three-year project is transferred entirely in the first year, it only counts once. Secondly, the CRS contains a lot of non-activities, including

items like “administrative costs of donors”. Moreover, some bilateral donors list individual consultant assignments as separate development activities. In most cases,

such transactions will fall outside of the “climate-affected” category. Hence, the share of climate-affected activities relative to the total number of activities (which is

diluted by these non-items) is lower. On the other hand, the shares by total amount tend to be dominated by structural investments (which tend to be more costly than

projects in sectors such as health, education, or environmental management).

20 Caveat: note that the CRS is not entirely complete; see footnote number 8*.

21 Note that in this selection, the role of large infrastructure projects is clearly visible. In Nepal, Japan tends to be a major donor in those sectors. Hence, it ranks much

higher in the tables by amount than by number, and is absent from the table (by amount) of affected activities according to selection method 2 (which excludes

transport and storage, as well as emergency projects).


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Table 4. The relative shares of activities in the CRS database (1998-2000, by total disbursed aid amounts), for the top-five donors

Amounts of activities

Activities affected by climate risks

(high estimate)


(low estimate) Emergency activities

Donor million$ % Donor million$ % Donor million$ % Donor million$ %

Total 959 100% Total 623 100% Total 476 100% Total 6 100%

Germany 195 20% Germany 173 28% Germany 166 35% Japan 5 89%

AsDF 187 19% AsDF 119 19% AsDF 119 25% Switzerland 0.5 9%

Japan 148 15% Japan 76 12% UK 67 14% UNDP 0.05 1%

UK 89 9% UK 72 12% Denmark 49 10% Germany 0.04 1%

IDA 72 8% IDA 60 10%

Netherlands 13 3% Belgium 0.03 1%

Table 5. The relative shares of activities in the CRS database (1998-2000, by total numbers of activities), for

the top-five donors

Numbers of activities


(high estimate)



Donor umber %

Donor Number % Donor umber % Donor Number %


Norway 118 18% UK 35 16% UK 27 15% Switzerland 3 33%

UK 66 10% Norway 23 11% Norway 23 13% Japan 2 22%

Germany 65 10% Germany 20 9% USA 15 9% Belgium 2 22%

USA 51 8% Switzerl. 19 9% Germany 14 8% UNDP 1 11%

Australia 45 7% Canada 16 7% Canada 14 8% Germany 1 11%

Given the high share of development activities in Nepal that could be affected by climate risks, one

would assume that these risks are reflected in development plans and a large share of development projects. The following sections will examine to which extent this is the case.

5.2 Attention to climate risks in donor strategies

The limited explicit attention to climate risks that is apparent in Nepal’s own development strategies is also reflected in many of the major donors’ strategies for the country, as can be seen in documents from multilateral agencies like the World Bank, UNDP and IFAD, as well as bilateral donors such as DFID and USAID. All of these strategies contain measures that will reduce Nepal’s vulnerability in various, often indirect, ways. However, explicit attention to climate risks is lacking, and some opportunities for vulnerability reduction may well be missed. This section focuses primarily on donor strategies.

Several of these documents however do implicitly acknowledge the potentially large impacts of climatic factors on the success or failure of development investments. For instance, the World Bank’s Economic Update for the 2002 Nepal Development Forum mentions that good rainfall has been one of the factors that contributed to the higher growth in the agriculture sector in recent years, putting climate on a par with increased use of fertilizer, private sector entry in the supply of inputs, better educated farmers,


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crop diversification, growth of agricultural credit, and improved infrastructure and irrigation. In addition, a relatively poor performance in agriculture is expected in the current year “following the untimely rainfall in September 2002”. Nevertheless, when discussing priorities for the agriculture sector, the need to improve the resilience of the agriculture sector against adverse climatic conditions is ignored. A similar pattern arises in the ADB’s Country Assistance Plan. Climate risks are also not explicitly mentioned in USAID’s and DFID’s country strategies for Nepal. USAID’s Nepal Annual Report evaluates past performance and updates priorities for the coming years. The agency concentrates on hydropower development, health, and governance of natural resources. While these sectors are clearly sensitive to climate, the report contains no references to climate risks. Climate change is only mentioned in the context of the mitigation potential of hydropower development. DFID’s Country Strategy Paper for Nepal (1998) presents a similar picture as the World Bank and ADB strategies: ample components that may well contribute to reducing Nepal’s vulnerability, but no explicit attention to climate risks.

UNDP’s Second Country Cooperation Framework (CCF 2002-2006) focuses on poverty reduction and sustainable development, but does not discuss the impacts of climate-related risks on those goals. However, a few crosscutting themes, including disaster mitigation, will be addressed in all projects and programmes of the CCF. This would mean that climate risk reduction ought to be mainstreamed in UNDP’s activities in the coming years. No specific examples of such mainstreaming are offered in the CCF.

The IFAD Country Strategic Opportunities Paper (CSOP) addresses several aspects of vulnerability in the hill and mountain areas of Nepal, but pays little explicit attention to current climate-related risks, and entirely neglects climate change. However, it does bring up an interesting dimension of climate-related vulnerability in Nepal, particularly in relation to the hill and mountain areas. These areas are very poor, remote, and lack physical and social infrastructure. They became even more isolated and marginalized when they missed the “green revolution” because new agricultural technologies that helped to spark agricultural growth in other parts of the country were not suited for rain-fed agriculture in difficult mountain terrains and climates. In combination, these factors have contributed to a downward spiral of poverty and lack of empowerment, leading to a lack of benefits from investments at the national level, and thus to further poverty. Climate change could intensify such inequalities (but is not discussed in the CSOP).

An important point to note is that the lack of explicit mention of climate risks does not necessarily mean a lack of attention to climate change: several strategies mention the mitigation potential of Nepal’s hydropower and forestry sector. No win-win options for combined adaptation and mitigation (for instance by afforestation) are discussed. An even more important point is that several donors and the government are in fact actively engaged in projects to reduce the risk of GLOFs over the past decade, as discussed in greater detail in the following section. Therefore, even if donors do not explicitly link GLOF risks to climate change per se, they are in fact actively engaged in devising adaptation responses to one of the most critical climate change related hazards for Nepal. This also highlights the limitation of using mention of “climate change” in project documents as a proxy measure to assess the significance the government or donors might attach to devising appropriate responses to some of the impacts associated with it.

6. Climate change, glacial lakes and hydropower

As alluded to in preceding sections, the most critical impacts of climate change in Nepal are related to its water resources and hydropower generation, stemming from glacier retreat, expansion of glacial lakes, and changes in seasonality and intensity of precipitation. These impacts include:

• Increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF)


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• Increased run-off variability (as a result of glacier retreat, more intense precipitation during monsoon, and potentially decreased rainfall in the dry season)

• Increased sediment loading (and landslides) as a result of GLOFs, as well as intense rainfall events

• Increased evaporation losses from reservoirs as a result of rising temperatures

Increased sedimentation is in part linked to GLOFs, and so responses to GLOFs will partially alleviate this risk. Meanwhile, as regards evaporation losses due to rising temperatures, it is not yet clear how significant such losses might be relative to the volume of the reservoirs. Therefore, this discussion will focus on the first two impacts – GLOFs and increased run-off variability.

6.1 Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOFs)

One of the most tangible manifestations of climate change is the fact that many glaciers are melting. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a high measure of confidence that in the coming decades many glaciers will retreat and smaller glaciers may disappear altogether. This has already been seen in the Alps, where a 1OC increase in temperature has caused glaciers to shrink 40% in mass and 50% in volume since 1850 (IPCC, 2001). Analysis of local and regional records of glacier fluctuations in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region during the same period shows that, while examples exist of both advance and retreat, the glaciers have mostly been retreating (Chalise, 1992). Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) were first observed in Iceland and identified under the name jokulhlaup, Icelandic for “glacier leap”. Ives (1986:2) observes: “The catastrophic discharge of large volumes of water is characteristic of many mountain regions, and especially glaciated areas. Such discharges usually result from the collapse of unstable natural dams formed when stream channels are blocked by rockfall, landslide, debris flow, or ice and snow avalanches. Another cause is the outburst of lakes dammed by glacier ice or by glacier moraines…Depending upon the availability of loose material, the outbursts may be flood surges with a high sediment load, or actual debris flows.” Richardson and Reynolds (2000:31) further describe the phenomenon in the Himalayas: “As glaciers recede in response to climatic warming, the number and volume of potentially hazardous moraine-dammed lakes in the Himalayas is increasing. These lakes develop behind unstable ice-cored moraines, and have the potential to burst catastrophically, producing devastating Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Discharge rates of 30,000 m3s-1 and run-out distances in excess of 200 km have been recorded.”

Glacial lakes can be ice-dammed or moraine dammed. Moraine dams are rocks and soil that have been pushed into a wall by the glacier. When the glacier retreats and a lake forms at the glacier tongue, the moraine holds the water back. GLOFs can also occur from lakes that form beneath the glacier or lakes on a glacier. Many glacial lakes drain periodically when the water reaches a certain level. This can be through a hole in the ice-cored dam, and the opening will become larger and larger, until suddenly the drainage accelerates to “flood” rate. In some locations, this is regulated with the seasons so that some lakes will self-drain once or several times each summer. With moraine-dammed lakes, when a GLOF occurs, too much of the moraine material will be washed away, so that the lake does not reform.

The most significant GLOF event in terms of recorded damages occurred in 1985. This GLOF caused a 10 to 15 meter high surge of water and debris to flood down the Bhote Koshi and Dudh Koshi Rivers for 90 kilometers. At its peak, 2,000 m3/sec discharged, two to four times the magnitude of maximum monsoon flood levels. It destroyed the Namche Small Hydel Project, which was almost completed at the time and cost approximately NPR 45 million. An earlier GLOF in 1977 was recorded at Dudh Koshi. This event killed two or three people, destroyed bridges for 35 km downstream, and triggered many debris flows. Construction materials for a hotel that were kept 10 m above the river were swept away. The


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Namche Hydel site sustained such damage that it was deemed unlikely to be salvageable for any reconstruction of the plant. Severe erosion destroyed the weir and headrace canal where water would flow into the plant. The flood plain was extensively widened. This damage was not the only damage that occurred that day on 4 August 1985. Damage occurred all along the length of the Langmoche Khola-Bhote Koshi-Dudh Koshi for a total of 90 km (Ives, 1986), including: 14 bridges, including new suspension bridges, were destroyed; at least 30 houses, likely the only property the families had; erosion, undercutting, and destabilization of long stretches of the main trail from the airstrip at Lukla to Mount Everest base camp; Prices increased by an average of 50% for staple supplies when the trail reopened; Cultivatable land and forest destroyed; Four or five deaths, but it could have been much higher had it occurred during peak trekking season; collapsed road sections, which the community repaired quickly, but it remained unsafe and caused accidents later.

A joint United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) / International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) inventory glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal in 2001 found over 3,252 glaciers, 2,323 glacial lakes, and 20 potential GLOF sites (Figure 9). While this only provides a picture of static risk, site based monitoring of specific glacial lakes has shown evidence for increasing lake volumes over time (see Figure 10 for one of the most significant lakes Tsho Rolpa). This trend in increase in lake volume correlates well with observed trends in high rates of temperature increase at high altitudes in the Himalayas, as previously discussed in Section 3.1. Taken together, the ensemble of evidence points to a potentially serious hazard that is closely tied to rising temperatures on account of climate change.

Figure 9. Glacial lakes and potential GLOF sites in Nepal

Source: ICMOD/UNEP 2002


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Figure 10. Increase in area of the Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake 1957-1997

Source: Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal

Many experts acknowledge that there is most definitely a retreat in glaciers, and glacial lakes have been growing (see figure above). With regard to a lake outburst, there are many trigger mechanisms, including earthquakes, spontaneous breakage of the moraine dam, and events such as the collapse of a large “hanging glacier” into the lake. However, climate change and higher temperatures are contributing to a very rapid increase in the volume of glacial lakes, which significantly increases the probability of catastrophic failure of lake walls as a result of these triggers. Richardson and Reynolds (2000) report that ice avalanches triggered more than half of all the recorded GLOFs in the Himalayas. Furthermore, all of the events occurred between the monsoon months of June and October when lake levels were at their highest. Therefore, increased intensity of monsoon precipitation which has been observed in recent years (and is consistent with climate change projections) could be an additional climate induced risk, in addition to rising temperatures that result in higher lake levels. Empirical evidence on the frequency of GLOF outbreaks seems to support this. Richardson and Reynolds (2000:36) note: “Historical records compiled by the authors of 33 Himalayan GLOFs indicate that the frequency of events appears to be increasing. It is also known that many existing lakes are growing in size as glaciers retreat and their moraine dams degrade. The potential for larger and more frequent floods is undoubtedly increasing.”

The impact of the future GLOFs on hydropower will be proportional to the amount of water in the lake, slope of its path downstream, debris and sediment picked up, and proximity of the hydropower plant. In the high Himalaya, riverbanks are very steep and highly variable over short distances. It is likely that a GLOF would cause both vertical and lateral erosion. This would spark off further debris flows and landslides. The loss of the Namche hydropower plant in 1985 did indeed serve as a catalyst for the government and donors to begin to pay attention to GLOF risks in siting and construction decisions for hydropower facilities. For example, in developing the Arun-3 project funded by the World Bank, the threat of a GLOF was brought to the attention of donors during the later stages of decision-making. Donors were


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sufficiently concerned about the risk of a GLOF that an urgent meeting was called in Paris. After much debate, an investigative study was commissioned for up to half a million dollars. However, the study was never initiated because the Arun-3 project collapsed due to environmental and local community concerns, among varied other reasons.

6.2 Variability of river runoff

Two factors will contribute to increased variability of river runoff: glacier retreat; and changes in timing and intensity of precipitation. Runoff will initially increase as glaciers melt, then later decrease as deglaciation progresses. In addition, decreased winter snowfall means less precipitation would be stored on the glaciers, so this would in turn decrease the spring and summer runoff. Studies on climate variability in Southwest Asia show that decreased winter snowfall does indeed decrease the spring/summer runoff, and it has caused severe droughts in Iran and Pakistan in areas that depend on water from mountain sources (Subbiah, 2001). Winter runoff, on the other hand, would increase due to earlier snowmelt and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain.

As discussed above in the section on climate scenarios, precipitation projections show wetter monsoons (with moderate certainty) and drier low flow seasons (with lower certainty). Many of Nepal’s rivers are fed by runoff from the over three thousand glaciers scattered throughout the country. These rivers feed the irrigation systems, power grain mills and electricity plants, and supply drinking water for villages for thousands of miles downstream. Some of the most prominent rivers in Nepal have average annual flows of 1,500 m3/s, including the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali. The most severe projections for Nepal show that runoff could reduce by 14%. This would reduce the electricity generation of existing plants. This runoff decrease will affect Nepal’s economically feasible hydropower potential; however, with only 1-2% of that potential currently developed, it will be quite some time before opportunities to expand the hydropower supply are constrained by climate change. This does not mean however that existing facilities might not be seriously affected by a combination of variable flows, flooding risks, as well as sedimentation brought down by intense rainfall of GLOF events.

Climate change has a number of implications for streamflow variability in Nepal. Shakya (2003) points out that 90% of debris volume in Nepal is transported by approximately 20% of rainfall. With the intense rainfall projected for the monsoon season, sedimentation is another factor that may shorten the operating life of a hydropower plant. There has also been an observed increasing trend in the number of flooding days. On the other hand, there might be significant declines in the dependability of dry season flows in certain rivers, which is quite critical for both water and energy supply. For example, for the Bagmati river, the long term 92.3% dependable flow, which is currently 21.1 m3/sec, is projected to decline to 9.86 m3/sec by 2030, and will be only 7.43 m3/sec under CO2 doubling (Shakya 2003). On the other hand, the intra-annual variability of stream flow is also projected to increase significantly. The current range of the Bagmati is 316.26 (from a low of 21.1 to a high 337.36). Under climate change this variability in flow will increase to 810.37 m3/sec (from a low of 7.43 to a high of 817.8) – posing considerably more complexity for hydropower planners and engineers in maintaining electricity generation throughout the year.

While the numbers presented here are only illustrative, they do in fact point to changes in the characteristics in the level and variability of streamflow, as well as associated events such as flooding and precipitation risks, that might require adequate incorporation in water resource and hydropower planning,


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particularly because all except one of Nepal’s existing hydropower facilities are of the “run of river” type, with no associated dams, which makes them more vulnerable to streamflow variability22.

7. Analysis of adaptation options for GLOF risks and streamflow variability

A number of adaptation strategies are in fact available to cope with both GLOF risks as well as changes in streamflow variability. Some of these responses are already in varying stages of implementation within the context of development projects, although such responses tend to be more clustered on the mapping and (engineering based) reduction of GLOF risks, and far less so in the direction reduction in social vulnerability or to cope with enhanced streamflow variability.

7.1 Siting in non-threatened locations

This adaptation option reduces vulnerability of GLOF risks by moving proposed hydropower plants to alternative locations. This risk of a GLOF occurring is relevant to the construction of both small-scale hydropower and large-scale. The former because they are often located in close proximity to potential sites. The latter because of the danger of damage, clogging, and much faster rates of siltation than designs can cope with (Ives, 1986). It is also a concern for roads and communications that usually accompany the construction of a hydropower plant. Other major infrastructure is also threatened. A 1981 GLOF was estimated to have a peak discharge of 16,000 m3/sec at the source, and it closed the China-Nepal Highway for one year, destroyed the Friendship Bridge, and modified the river for 30 km downstream.

Documents from the Namche Project that was destroyed in the 1985 GLOF event do not give evidence that any “special attention was paid to the possible occurrence of catastrophic geomorphic events, despite the fact that the project was being sited in one of the highest and most precipitous mountain regions in the world” (Ives, 1986: 18). However, after the Namche disaster in 1985, the Austrian Government relocated the plant and built it in another location. It has since been under continuous operation and the risk of GLOF is estimated to be low. However, in relocating hydropower plants, there is the question of whether the generating capacity is lowered, or if transmission costs increase. With the potentially reduced generating capacity, is it still possible to promote industrial and commercial growth at a rapid enough pace? Another concern is that, given the general uncertainty on GLOF risks at this time, investors and energy planners may be reluctant to relocate plants when it is only one of many factors in choosing a site. In discussions with hydropower officials, they stressed that assessments are conducted for a wide variety of risks as a matter of course in developing plants, and GLOFs are being considered more and more.

However, one of the main barriers in effectively incorporation of GLOF risks in project siting is reliable spatial mapping of which lakes are at risk of bursting23. This is not straightforward, however, since GLOFs can travel as far as 200 km or more. Catchment-wide analyses should be undertaken to determine the vulnerability downstream of hazardous glacial lakes. Furthermore, secondary damming resulting from the initial GLOF can pose just as great a risk to hydropower plants by forming large reservoirs, which may then burst themselves. In fact, the risk may be even greater, since the reservoirs are much closer to the

22 Although, conversely, the absence of dams makes such installations safer in the event of glacial lake outbursts, as there would not be a secondary flooding event as a

result of the breach of the dam. This also illustrates how suitable adaptation responses to one aspect of climate change impacts, might in fact exacerbate vulnerability

to another aspect.

23 The UNEP/ICIMOD inventory of glacial lakes in Nepal and Bhutan is a step in this direction, but other experts observe that the database draws upon somewhat

dated information.


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plant24. An integrated risk management approach is therefore needed to supplement satellite based risk mapping of the lakes themselves.

7.2 Smaller hydropower plants

Hydropower in Nepal is divided into five categories:

• Micro – up to 100 kW

• Small – 101 kW to 10 MW

• Medium – 10 MW to 35 MW

• Large – greater than 35 MW

One adaptation response to GLOF risks is to promote the development of smaller plants would also spread the risk of a catastrophic flooding event and avoid damage to a huge plant with significant sunk costs. Micro-hydropower has the potential to fulfil a large amount of the rural demand for energy. Water wheels (ghatta) have already been used in Nepal for hundreds of years to process agricultural products. Nepal has 6,000 rivers and rivulets, with 25,000 traditional ghatta in use. Current micro-hydro plants range from 1 to 56 kW, and there are currently 924 units in the country, totalling approximately 10 MW. In addition, there is now a move to privatize hydropower plants with less than 10 MW capacity. For small and medium plants, the Ministry of Finance announced in the budget speech of 2001/02 that HMG will promote private investment in them as a “priority sector”. This would encourage private development and increase the skills base of entrepreneurs and workers. Less bureaucracy should also be beneficial to the economic standing of plants. At the moment, a license must be obtained for any hydropower plant greater than 1000 kW.

The development of micro- and small hydro is already in line with Nepal’s development priorities, and is being encouraged by both the government and donors. In other words, climate change might be one additional reason to promote a strategy that is already being implemented for reasons of economic development.

One issue is whether small hydropower or smaller scale plants would be sufficient to fuel industrial growth in Nepal. Further investigation is needed to determine this. On the other hand, one of Nepal’s uppermost priorities is rural development, and small and micro-hydropower will play a much more important role in that regard. Electricity development can help to diversify the economy, and at the same time relieve some of the pressures – environmental degradation, deforestation, and shifting land-use patterns – that are pushing people to migrate out of the mountains. Micro plants are also normally in the control of the Village Development Committees (VDCs) or private investors, so there is a greater sense of ownership within the community. UNDP Nepal (2001b:17-18) recognizes the benefits of promoting micro-hydropower in achieving goals for rural development and forest conservation: “Rural settlements now face various environmental problems that aggravate poverty and internal migration…Protection and conservation of natural forests in such situations demands more attention to alternative energies like micro-hydro and solar energy. Changing the fuelwood consumption pattern in Humla means support[ing] the communities and the local government to identify the potential sites and installing alternative energy plants that can also lower the scope for diseases like acute respiratory infection (ARI) and blindness. The [District Forest Officer] in Humla encouraged [community based organizations] to install micro-hydro plants to

24 In 1998, the Macchu Picchu hydropower facility in Peru was inundated following a secondary dam burst, resulting in costs of over $200 million (Reynolds, personal

communication).


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reduce the consumption of pinewood. This helped not only in reducing the pressure on natural forest, but also in improving health, sanitation, indoor environment, and education.”

There are however three key concerns with regard to smaller hydropower facilities: (i) cost per unit if energy; (ii) aggregate generation potential; (iii) and for the case of climate change, whether they are an adequate response to the spectrum of risks posed by climate change on hydropower resources in Nepal.

An analysis of the generation cost per kW for medium and large projects is 40% that of small plants, and only 25-33% that of micro-hydro (CETS, 1995). The costs of micro-hydro though have come down significantly since this study was published. Five of the plants have been privatized in the hopes of lightening the government’s burden. Despite the greater cost of electricity generated in micro and small hydropower plants, several advantages should not be overlooked. The investment cost of small hydropower is lower, so development of the sector will likely proceed more quickly than when raising capital for a large project. The small hydropower plant is under the control of the district, and can be managed more efficiently. Local expertise and technology is more readily available than for large projects, which often call for foreign assistance. Also, it is not necessary to build dams or storage reservoirs for small plants, so there is less risk of environmental damage.

With regard to whether micro and small hydro facilities will suffice to meet Nepal’s electricity demand, the current situation is that Nepal cannot currently absorb the electricity generated by mega-plants. Critics of large projects cite the danger in developing mega hydropower for the reason that India would be the sole export destination, leaving Nepal heavily dependent on one customer (Gyawali, 2001). However, it is important to note that Nepal is currently at only about 15% electrification, and significant increases in its electricity demands are likely in the coming decades as industries develop and as a significant portion of its population moves from biomass to electricity. It is not clear whether such future demands could be adequately met by small and micro-hydro alone, particularly given that at least some climate change impacts (such as increased streamflow variability, decreased low flow dependability, and increased sedimentation might diminish some of the existing hydropower potential).

Finally, while micro and small hydro offer a suitable diversification to GLOF risks, they might not be a good safeguard against variable and low flow situations that are anticipated under certain climate change scenarios. In fact, even the majority of large hydro-power facilities which are “run of river” would be vulnerable, since they do not have large reservoir dams to act as buffers. Thus, the possibility of dry season low-flows would actually argue for the need for storage hydro (dams), but which tend to be expensive and associated with other environmental risks that currently make them a low priority for many planners, donors, and environmentalists. The role of storage hydro might therefore be an example of a potential conflict between various development, environmental goals and climate responses, and the costs and benefits might need systematic investigation.

7.3 Reduction in GLOF risks

Another set of adaptation responses to GLOF hazards revolves around the physical reduction in the flooding risks of glacial lakes. Rana et al (2000) list several solutions, including:

• Draining the lake by siphon or pump

• Cutting a drainage channel for the lake to periodically drain

• Flood control measures downstream to mitigate the effects of the flood

• Developing a GLOF early warning system


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An added benefit of GLOF mitigation measures is that the “methods of remediation can be harnessed to facilitate safe management of the water resource for hydro-electric power at a local scale (micro-hydro power) and for export (major hydro-electric power generation facilities).” (Reynolds and Richardson, 1999) During the consultative workshop on this issue in Kathmandu in March 2003, this notion received considerable support as a way to leverage the efforts from GLOF mitigation. In addition to hydropower, the siphoned water could also be used to supplement dry season flows, maintain adequate water levels in downstream ecosystems to protect valuable fish stocks, supply water for local usage, and even provide recreational facilities. However, the long-term economic feasibility of harnessing these waters may be limited. As one geologist at the Department of Water-Induced Disasters pointed out, these glacial lakes have been formed over several decades or more, and the rate of recharge may likely be less than the rate of draw down if used for other purposes. This would require more careful study into the possibilities of multi-benefit schemes.

GLOF mitigation measures however each have their own disadvantages. Pumping is expensive; because of the remote location at high altitudes, heavy infrastructure must be flown by helicopter to the site. Flood control measures are less desirable because Nepal’s topography with steep gradients makes the flood behave unpredictably as it moves downstream, the flood can carry on for 200 km. Further, in effect, it is treating the symptoms rather than the cause, as it does not prevent a GLOF from happening in the first place. GLOF early warning systems tend to be expensive to set up and maintain, and only benefit populations downstream enough to have sufficient lead time.

These disadvantages notwithstanding, there is one instance in Nepal where such responses have in fact already been implemented in an integrated manner. The Tsho Rolpa glacial lake (Figure 8) project in one of the most significant examples of collaborative anticipatory planning by the government, donors, and experts in GLOF mitigation. Tsho Rolpa was estimated to store approximately 90-100 million m3, a hazard that called for urgent attention. A 150-meter tall moraine dam held the lake, which if breached, could cause a GLOF event in which a third or more of the lake could flood downstream. The likelihood of a GLOF occurring at Tsho Rolpa, and the risks it posed to the 60MW Khimti hydro power plant that was under construction downstream, was sufficient to spur HMG to initiate a project in 1998, with the support of the Netherlands Development Agency (NEDA), to drain down the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake. This effort was led by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), with the technical assistance of Reynolds Geo-Sciences Co., Ltd. of Britain, supported by the UK Department for International Development (DFID). To mitigate this risk, an expert group recommended lowering the lake three meters by cutting an open channel in the moraine. In addition, a gate was constructed to allow water to be released as necessary. While the lake draining was in progress, an early warning system was simultaneously established in 19 villages downstream of the Rolwaling Khola on the Bhote/Tama Koshi River to give warning in the event of a Tsho Rolpa GLOF. Local villagers have been actively involved in the design of this system, and drills are carried out periodically. The World Bank provided a loan to construct the system. The four-year Tsho Rolpa project finished in December 2002, with a total cost of USD 2.98 million from The Netherlands and an additional USD 231,000 provided by HMG.

The goal of lowering the lake level was achieved by June 2002, which reduced the risk of a GLOF by 20%. The complete prevention of a GLOF at Tsho Rolpa necessitates further reducing the lake water, perhaps by as much as 17 meters. Expert groups are now undertaking further studies, but it is obvious that the cost of mitigating GLOF risks is substantial and time consuming. The cost, however, is much less than the potential damage that would be caused by an actual event in terms of lost lives, communities, development setbacks, and energy generation.


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7.4 Incorporation of future reduced generation capacity in design

Hydropower generation already has several mechanisms in place to cope with streamflow fluctuations as a result of current seasonal as well as climate variability. For example, a plant may have three in-take channels and turbines to generate electricity during peak runoff season (monsoon). Then during the dry season, one or more in-take channels can be shut off. This allows the plant to generate electricity more efficiently and without incurring losses for excess capacity25. This option should be investigated to analyze the economic benefit of designing hydropower plants with the possibility of future lowered capacity, for example, in 25 years. The current design for small hydropower assumes an average lifespan of 50 years, with most investors expecting a return on their investment within 7 years26. When questioned about reduced runoff and electricity generation in coming decades, one hydropower expert replied that it would only affect his decision-making if there were greater certainty of significantly reduced runoff and if it occurs within 20-25 years. This highlights another constraint in medium to long term planning for climate change impacts, given the considerable uncertainties regarding both the magnitude and timing of many climate change impacts.

7.5 Integrated water resource and disaster management

The above measures are aimed at reducing the direct risks of climate change-induced GLOFs and runoff changes on the hydropower sector. A broader perspective on Nepal’s development patterns incorporating migration, watershed management, flood management, and disaster preparedness will also help communities adapt to climate change. One of the most important indicators of vulnerability to climate change and disasters is poverty. This is the unfortunate situation for most Nepalis living in mountainous and hill regions. Only 2% of the land is suitable for cultivation, and it can support only 8% of the population (Tianchi and Behrens, 2002). Human activities to build settlements, cultivate steep slopes, gather fuelwood, and construct other infrastructure have led to severe land degradation. Deforestation is another problem in the mountain areas, leading to increased landslides—up to 12,000 per year—and floods. From 1979-1998, forested area decreased by one third.

With limited opportunities for safe and sustainable livelihoods in the mountains, population densities are growing within the river valleys where vulnerability to GLOFs increases. Migration in Nepal has been triggered through two main factors: population growth and decreased land productivity (Tianchi and Behrens, 2002). In fact, these two causes together have led to recent trends indicating that per capita food production may actually have fallen during recent years. Population growth means there are now more people exposed to GLOFs and other climate-related disasters, and this is compounded by the expansion of infrastructure and settlements into vulnerable areas. At the same time that communities are moving further into the hills, many more are migrating to the Terai, where almost 48% of the population now lives.

The poor land use practices in the mountains then take their toll on the progressively more crowded Terai region through increased floods. The environmental degradation and deforestation that prompted the migration from the highlands are now being observed in the Terai. Like many other developing countries, urban centers are also growing quickly. Over 10% of the population is now in urban areas, and this is growing by about 5% per year. In 2000, Kathmandu already experienced a water stress of approximately 60 million m3 and a water scarcity of 40 million m3. Ensuring adequate water resources for all of the country’s various uses will become an increasingly urgent issue, especially to take into account climate change. According to the 25-Year Water Plan, Nepal aims to increase hydropower to 22,000 MW, expand irrigation to 90% of irrigable lands, and increase access for domestic water supplies to 100% of the population (Sharma, 2003). Current water availability is 215 km3, but this is only 26 km3 during the low 25 S. Devkota and A. Karki: personal communication.

26 S. Devkota: personal communication.


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flow season. The amount of water needed to achieve the goals of the 25-Year Water Plan is 60 km3 for hydropower and 28 km3 for other uses.

A number of options can reduce vulnerability in all regions of Nepal to climate change and climate-related disasters. Non-structural measures are particularly attractive as they generally involve lower costs than engineering measures and would go a long way towards building capacity for disaster preparedness and water resource management. Such measures include: Developing and implementing land use/zoning policies; maintaining up to date hazard and vulnerability maps; training and capacity building for disaster and water resource management; working with the community to increase public awareness and develop early warning systems and evacuation plans; afforestation and reforestation programs (for reduction in flooding/landslide risk).

7.6 Energy supply and demand management

At its core, the various impacts of climate change (GLOFs, streamflow variability; reduced low flow dependability; increased sediment loads from floods and strong precipitation events) affect Nepal’s hydroelectric potential. This is particularly significant, given that hydro contributes over 90% of Nepal’s electricity generation. Among the adaptation options in the energy sector therefore are: alternate sources of energy supply, and better demand side management.

The potential non-hydro energy options for Nepal include: Fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, natural gas); Biogas and Agricultural residues; and Solar energy. Agricultural residues, solar and biogas have all made promising inroads into Nepal’s energy consumption, but face constraints with regard to their overall potential. The efficiency of conversion is a major constraint for agricultural residues, while cost is the limiting factor for solar photovoltaics. Biogas has been considerably more successful and has the potential to meet one-third of current energy consumption. With regard to fossil energy, Nepal initiated plans to undertake petroleum exploration activities, supported by the World Bank and the International Development Agency. To date, no reserves of petroleum products have been found in the country and all petroleum is imported from India. The Ninth and Tenth Development Plans state that the policy in this regard is to reduce dependency on imports and instead promote indigenous sources. Natural gas has been found in Nepal, approximately 300 million cubic meters, and a model plant in Kathmandu Valley was installed in 1987. Over the past fifteen years, it has shown that natural gas could be used for domestic and industrial use in the Kathmandu Valley. The contribution of coal to Nepal’s existing energy demand is quite small. There are 5.1 million tons of coal reserves estimated in Nepal, but the current production methods rely only on traditional tools. The advantage of fossil energy (relative to agricultural residues and biogas) is the greater potential for electricity generation (as opposed to direct energy end-use), given that electrification will be a primary vehicle for Nepal’s development in the coming decades. The obvious drawback is that fossil energy (particularly coal) would contribute significantly to greenhouse emissions and climate change, in addition to other health related concerns. This highlights how a potential adaptation response to certain climate induced risks might actually be orthogonal to a greenhouse mitigation strategy. It is therefore all the more important for Nepal to maintain its current high share of hydropower in its electricity generation through suitable adaptation strategies that reduce vulnerability to climate induced risks, rather than a shift to fossil energy. In the case of Nepal this is consistent with current national priorities as representatives of the NPC and other government agencies have specifically stated their preference for hydropower as an indigenous source of energy.

Demand side management should also be an important tool in an energy adaptation strategy. Energy efficient lighting, water pumps, heaters, and cookers are now available in Nepal. Using compact fluorescent lightbulbs (CFLs) rather than incandescent bulbs would reduce by half the electricity for lighting requirements in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors (Shresthacharya, 2002). One study projects that as much as 13%—5,876 GWh—of total electricity generated during the period 1996-


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2010 could be avoided by using CFLs and energy efficient motors, from a technically feasible perspective. Economically, it would be possible to avoid 6.9% of electricity generated. Another benefit to promoting energy efficiency is the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. During the 14-year period, CO2 emissions could decrease 97% from the business-as-usual emission scenario in the residential sector, 37% in the industrial sector, and 28% in the commercial sector (ARRPEEC, 1998). This would yield a 12.6% reduction in costs through demand side management, savings in electricity generation, and installed capacity. This adaptation option would indirectly reduce the risk of damages from a GLOF by the reducing the number of installations needed for electricity. This would mean either less plants existing or less capacity, meaning smaller plants, with reduced exposure to GLOF risk. It also leaves the energy system less vulnerable to climate change, in the event that future runoff changes reduce the capacity of plants to produce electricity. However, in general energy planners have tended to focus on the supply side issues of electricity generation, and not nearly enough on demand side management. Public awareness and incentives for incorporating energy efficiency is also low in Nepal. Finally, savings from energy efficient appliances are not easily predictable by the end users; this is due to distorted electricity prices and the lag times in recouping investment in the appliances

8. Towards prioritization of climate responses in the hydropower sector

An initial step towards prioritization and mainstreaming of responses to climate change in Nepal’s hydropower sector was made as part of a consultative workshop on “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a Focus on Hydrological Regime Changes including GLOF” that was held in Kathmandu, on March 5-6 2003 (Appendix A and B). The primary input to the workshop was a consultant report for the OECD Development and Climate Project produced by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), and the workshop was organized in partnership with HMG’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). As part of the workshop three breakout groups were established to engage government and donor representatives, as well as representatives from NGOs, the private sector, and academia in a discussion of the synergies and trade-offs between various adaptation options related to GLOF hazards, Hydropower, and Social Systems exposed to climate induced water hazards in Nepal.


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This exercise was intended as a first step in a more systematic exploration of climate responses by the various stakeholders in Nepal. The results are therefore only illustrative, and briefly summarized below.

8.1 GLOF hazards

Response Option Effectiveness Cost Implementation Barriers Raising awareness High Low Communication, what kind of media

to use Inventory and monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes

High Moderate Lack of appropriate data, local capacity, funding

Vulnerability and risk assessment Medium-High Moderate Lack of appropriate data, local capacity, funding

Research for multiple benefits of mitigation measures

High Medium-High

Funds

Land use planning Moderate Moderate Lack of coordination between agencies, with communities

Developing a national policy and action plan

Medium-High High Funds, political will

Mitigation and early warning systems, including drawing down water and storage for deglaciation

Medium-High High Funds, logistics, local capacity

Relocation of population Uncertain High Social acceptance

An important point from the discussion on adaptation options for GLOF hazards, which is also relevant for other two issues, is that prioritization was difficult at this early stage. It is likely that several of the options would be implemented in tandem. For example, a risk assessment can only be undertaken once there is the knowledge of the locations and characteristics of the glacial lakes and/or glaciers in the process of developing supra-glacial lakes that may become risky. However, there will be positive feedback between each of the options such that the inventory would influence what the national policy and action plan should be, policies would influence land use planning, and so on. Furthermore, the range of options and their individual definitions can be refined, given more time and discussion between stakeholders. Implementation of action plans and inventories also depends on the modalities of the institutions involved, and their local capacity in terms of human, physical, and funding resources. The formulation of a national policy and an action plan should involve the adoption of political ownership and recognition by government agencies such as the National Planning Commission.

8.2 Hydropower

This group ranked the effectiveness and costs of each option from 1-10, with 1 meaning “most effective” or “least cost”, while 11 means “least effective” or “greatest cost”. Discussion on this issue stressed the importance of recognizing that GLOF risks should not pose excessive barriers to hydropower developments. Planners, donors, and investors should undertake risk assessments and work to understand how GLOFs and climate change can be managed. Some participants were concerned that the idea of climate change and GLOFs would lead some people to automatically rule out large hydropower plants. One advantage of large hydropower discussed during the consultative workshop is that reservoirs can provide dependable flows for electricity generation, supplement water supplies for domestic and agriculture uses during the dry season, and if properly designed, they may play a role in flood management. These possible benefits must be carefully weighed any against environmental impacts and the enhanced GLOF risks. Thorough risk assessments that closely examine climate-related hazards will provide a more accurate perspective of the costs and/or benefits of small versus large hydropower for a


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given site and need. The table above illustrates that, without information on a particular site’s vulnerability, the preference is for smaller hydropower projects.

Option Effectiveness Cost Lower risk site 2 1 Priority for high head schemes 3 2 Priority for run-of-river schemes 9 7 Watershed management 5 4 Reservoirs 10 9 Increased spillway design capacity 6 6 Multiple units within one plant 8 8 Develop hydropower from GLOF mitigation measures 11 11 Design structures with proper de-sanding/flushing system 4 5 Multiple projects to maintain generation capacity 7 10 Research 1 3

8.3 Social systems

The ultimate end-point of all climate induced water hazards in Nepal are the communities that are vulnerable to such impacts, primarily in mountain regions but also downstream in low-lying areas that suffer the consequences of flooding or reduced water/energy supply. In addition to the loss of life in flooding events such as GLOFs, it is the loss of livelihoods that is far more significant and long lasting. The washing away of a mountain bridge can often cut-off access to agricultural land or fuelwood, while landslides often render land unsuitable for cultivation. Yet, the primary emphasis of responses to water hazards and risks to hydropower generation have focused on engineering solutions such as better design of hydropower facilities or drainage of glacial lakes. Considerably less attention is paid to alternate measures to reduce the vulnerability of social systems to such impacts. Some of the response measures that could be undertaken this category were considered under the Social Systems breakout group.

Option Effectiveness Cost Implementation Barriers Early warning systems

High High installation & cumulative maintenance; Low daily maintenance

Lack of awareness; political instability

Water storage for livelihoods

High High dams and reservoirs; Low ponds

Lack of investment; implications for other environmental problems; lack of awareness

Planning new settlements in low risk areas

Very high High Lack of awareness; lack of adequate hazard mapping

Resettlement in low risk areas

High High Lack of awareness; lack of will to move

Non-agriculture employment

Low High Lack of education; lack of willingness; lack of non-agriculture opportunities

Develop drought-resistant cultivars

High Low Lack of information; high cost of new varieties

The above measures could be part of a broader agenda to mainstream climate change concerns in poverty reduction and rural development efforts. Elements of such an agenda - as identified in the Multi-Agency Report on Poverty and Climate Change (World Bank et al. 2003) - include: improving social


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networks to cope with climate related disasters; increasing the resilience of natural systems and their productivity in order to support the livelihoods of the poor; infrastructure solutions; boosting human capital through better education and awareness programs related to the potential impacts of climate change; and promoting safety net and risk spreading mechanisms to cope with climate risks.

9. Conclusions and further issues

9.1 Climate trends, scenarios and impacts

This integrated analysis reveals that the need for mainstreaming climate change responses in development planning and assistance is particularly acute for Nepal. Nestled in the Hindukush Himalayas Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, with the mountains and related water resources underpinning its economic and energy infrastructure. An observed warming trend over the past several decades is already having discernible and generally adverse impacts on both these key resources – many mountain glaciers are in a general state of retreat, and some are expected to disappear entirely in the coming decades. Glacier retreat and ice melt more generally are also significantly increasing the size and volume of several of Nepal’s more than two thousand glacial lakes, making them more prone to glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF).

Climate change scenarios across multiple general circulation models meanwhile show considerable convergence on continued warming, with country averaged mean temperature increases of 1.2°C and 3°C projected by 2050 and 2100. Continued glacier retreat can also reduce dry season flows fed by glacier melt, while there is moderate confidence across climate models that the monsoon might intensify under climate change. This contributes to enhanced variability of river flows. Potential intensification of monsoons combined with enhancement of GLOF risks also contributes to enhanced risk of flooding and landslides which can have serious a impact on mountain agriculture and rural livelihoods. A subjective ranking of key impacts and vulnerabilities in Nepal identifies water resources and hydropower as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resource being affected.

9.2 Attention to climate change concerns in national planning

At the national level meanwhile Nepal has no specific policy documents dealing with climate change. Nepal’s Tenth Development Plan, which has been developed as the country’s PRSP, has poverty reduction as its central focus. Although the plan acknowledges the important influence weather can have on overall economic performance, explicit attention to climate risks is lacking. The Development Plan is accompanied by a Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), which provides a prioritization of resources and ensures consistency of annual budgets with the 5-year Development Plan. The sectoral MTEF papers for some of Nepal’s vulnerable sectors lack consideration of climate change induced risks, for example the MTEF paper for the power sector does not recognize risks to hydropower plants due to the variability in runoff, floods (including GLOFs), and sedimentation. Nepal has yet to submit its first National Communication under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Nepal’s recent National Communication to the UN Convention on Biodiversity, to the UN Convention on Combating Desertification as well as its report to the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) make only marginal references to climate change.

9.3 Attention to climate change concerns in donor portfolios and projects

Nepal receives between US$ 350 and 400 million of development assistance annually. An analysis of donor projects in Nepal using the OECD/World Bank Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database reveals that roughly 50-65% (in terms of investment dollars) and 26-33% (in terms of number of projects) of donor


43

portfolios in Nepal are potentially affected by climate risks. This includes both activities in sectors which may be impacted by climate change, as well as those development activities which may influence the vulnerability of natural or human systems to climate change. These numbers are only indicative, given that any classification based on sectors suffers from problems related to over-simplification. Nevertheless, such measures can serve as a crude barometer to assess the degree to which particular projects or development strategies may need to take climate change concerns into account.

Despite discernible impacts that can be related to climate change, Nepal has generally not received sufficient attention or funding from international efforts on adaptation to climate change. Meanwhile, on the development side, an analysis of donor country strategies and project documents reveals that such documents also do not mention climate change explicitly. Yet, field visits and consultation with government officials and donor representatives present a more nuanced picture27. Efforts are in fact underway to manage at least some of the risks, such as GLOFs, as part of their ongoing development projects and plans – albeit in a narrow engineering sense.

9.4 Climate change: water resources and hydropower

The most critical impacts of climate change in Nepal can be expected to be on its water resources, particularly glacial lakes, and its hydropower generation. Water supply infrastructure and facilities are at risk from increased flooding, landslides, sedimentation and more intense precipitation events (particularly during the monsoon) expected to result from climate change. Greater unreliability of dry season flows, in particular, poses potentially serious risks to water supplies in the lean season. Hydroelectric plants are highly dependent on predictable runoff patterns. Therefore, increased climate variability, which can affect frequency and intensity of flooding and droughts, could affect Nepal severely. GLOF and increased run-off variability threatens the potential for hydropower generation. GLOFs have already been associated with the loss of a newly built multi-million dollar hydropower facility in 1985, as well as significant loss of other infrastructure such as bridges, roads, livelihoods, and human life. Given that Nepal’s electricity infrastructure heavily relies on hydro power - nearly 91% of the nation’s power comes from this source - a reduced hydropower potential might imply that Nepal will have to seek for alternative sources of power generation, including from fossil fuel sources. In other words, failure to adapt to climate induced risks to hydropower might also be critical from the perspective of greenhouse mitigation. However, uncertainties in climate projections and lack of reliable hydrological records remain an important constraint for effective anticipatory planning.

9.5 Towards mainstreaming climate concerns in development planning: constraints and opportunities

Preliminary discussions with regard to prioritization of adaptation strategies and their mainstreaming with national stakeholders revealed that development priorities and climate responses can be complementary instead of orthogonal. For example, setting up micro-hydro generation facilities serves multiple development goals, including rural development and employment of women, in addition to serving as an effective diversification strategy for GLOF hazards. On the other hand, there are instances where climate risks and development paths might be on a collision course. For example, the construction of new roads, frequently in river valleys is encouraging settlements in precisely those areas that might be more vulnerable to flooding. Another critical issue for Nepal, where competing environmental and development priorities lead to conflicting priorities, is the case of storage hydropower. The growing demands for water and electricity, coupled with reduced dependability of low season flows under climate change would suggest the need for a greater role for storage hydro facilities as an adaptation response, as

27 This also highlights one limitation of “top-down” analyses of project documents for mention of climate change to infer the extent to which projects do in fact take

into account climate change related concerns.


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opposed to the conventional run-of-river schemes. Construction of dams, however, is currently not being encouraged, in large part due to other environmental risks posed by them. While addressing one impact of climate change (low flows), dams might in fact exacerbate societal vulnerability to another climate change impact (GLOFs), because the breach of a dam following a GLOF might result in a second flooding event. In such complex situations, it is not a case of binary choices, but of attempting to avoid premature closure of particular policy options. Sensible decision-making is needed on a case by case basis so that the implications (including from a climate perspective) of all choices can be suitably incorporated in final decision-making.

While there is evidence of significant collaboration between donors and the government, a key constraint is the capacity of host agencies and institutions – particularly the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology – to field simultaneous multiple and diverse requests from various donors. The amount, continuity, and scope of project funding remains a continuing concern. Further, donors point to a lack of co-ordination across various national government agencies, whereas government agencies point to a lack of co-ordination across donors. Funding in the hydropower sector has also traditionally been more readily available for infrastructure for risk reduction, as opposed to training and capacity building efforts that might contribute to vulnerability reduction. Further, generally only current risks are incorporated in project planning. The evidence is at best mixed as to whether plans and projects incorporate the increase in risks that are projected with a changing climate. This might be one area where climate change funds and projects could be used to complement existing development funding by focusing on training and capacity building, as well as longer term risk and vulnerability reduction.

Finally, there is also an important trans-boundary or regional dimension to both climate change impacts and responses. Many catastrophic GLOF events in Nepal, in fact originated in Tibet. Conversely, decisions about water resource management or hydropower generation in Nepal affect neighboring countries. Therefore, in addition to national discourses on linkages between climate change and development, such discussions might also be needed at a regional level to formulate co-ordinated strategies.


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ARRPEEC, 1998. Energy, Environment, and Climate Change Issues: Nepal. Study by the Asian Regional Research Program in Energy, Environment, and Climate. Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok

Barry, R.G., 1994. “Past and Potential Future Changes in Mountain Environments: A review,” in M. Beniston, ed. Mountain Environments in Changing Climates. London: Routledge

Bhadra, B., 2002. “Hydro-Energy for National Development: Issues in Small and Medium Hydro Electricity Development” in S.K. Khatri and H. Uprety (eds) Energy Policy: National and Regional Implications. Nepal Foundation for Advanced Studies, Kathmandu

Boer, G.J., N.A. McFarlane, and M. Lazare. 1992. Greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated with the CCC second-generation general circulation model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 5:1045-1077.

CETS, 1995. Sustainable Development of Small Hydropower in Nepal. Centre for Economic and Technical Studies, Kathmandu

Chalise, S.R., 1994. “Mountain Environments and Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas,” in M. Beniston, ed. Mountain Environments in Changing Climates, London: Routledge

CIA. 2002. The World Factbook. http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/np.html. Accessed January 6, 2003.

Country Study Team–Nepal, 1997. “Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation: Nepal Water Resources”, prepared as part of the US Country Studies Program, Washington, DC

GRID-ARENDAL News. 2002. http://www.grida.no/inf/news/news02/news30.htm. Accessed December 30, 2002.

Gyawali, D., 2001. Water in Nepal. Kathmandu: Himal Books

ICIMOD and UNEP, 2002. Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Monitoring and Early Warning Systems the Hindu Kush – Himalayan Region: Nepal. International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu

ICIMOD, 1996. Climatic and Hydrological Atlas of Nepal. International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu

IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva


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Ives, J.D., 1986. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Risk Engineering in the Himalaya. ICIMOD Occassional Paper No. 5. International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu

Liu, X. and B. Chen, 2000. “Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau During Recent Decades,” in International Journal of Climatology 20: 1729-1742.

Mishra, C., 2000. “Development Practice in Nepal: An overview” in K.B. Bhattachan and C. Mishra (eds) Developmental Practices in Nepal. Central Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu

Mool, P., S. Joshi, T. Yamada, T. Kadota, Y. Ageta, and V. Galay. 2003. ICIMOD, WECS, JICA-Nepal. http://www.rrcap.unep.org/glofnepal/guide/movie.html. Accessed January 19, 2003.

Rana, B., A.B. Shrestha, J.M. Reynolds, R. Aryal, A.P. Pokhrel, and K.P. Budhathoki, 2000. “Hazard assessment of the Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake and ongoing remediation measures,” in Journal of Nepal Geological Society, 2000. Vol. 22, pp. 563-570.

Reynolds, J. and S. Richardson, 1999. “Geological Hazards: Glacial” in J. Ingleton (ed) Natural Disaster Management: A presentation to commemorate the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. Leicester, UK:Tudor Rose

Reynolds, J.M., 1998. “High-altitude glacial lake hazard assessment and mitigation: a Himalayan perspective” in J.G. Maund and M. Eddleston (eds) Geohazards in Engineering Geology. Geological Society, London, Engineering Geology Special Publications, 15, 25-34

Richardson, S. and J. Reynolds, 2000. “An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas,” in Quaternary International 65/66 (2000): 31-47

Shakya, N.M., 2003. “Hydrological Changes Assessment and Its Impact on Hydro Power Projects of Nepal” in draft proceedings of the Consultative Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a Focus on Hydrological Regime Changes Including GLOF, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, 5-6 March 2003, Kathmandu

Sharma, K.P., 2003. “Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Nepal” in draft proceedings of the Consultative Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a Focus on Hydrological Regime Changes Including GLOF, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, 5-6 March 2003, Kathmandu

Sharma, K.P., N.R. Adhikari, and R.G. Karbuja, 2002. Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Resources to Climate Changes in Nepal. Interim report prepared for the UNFCCC Initial National Communication. Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu

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Shrestha, A.B., C.P. Wake, P.A. Mayewski, and J.E. Dibb, 1999. “Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971 – 94” in Journal of Climate, (12) 2775-2789

Shrestha, N.R., 1998. In the Name of Development: A Reflection on Nepal. Educational Enterprises (P), Ltd., Kathmandu

Shresthacharya, A., 2002. Energy Economics in Nepal: Issues and Options. Kathmandu: Udaya Books

Subbiah, 2001. Climate Variability and Drought in Southwest Asia. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok

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UNDP, 2001b. Annual Report 2001: Towards a Sustainable Future. UNDP, Kathmandu

UNEP, 2001. Nepal: State of the Environment. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi

UNEP/ICIMOD. 2002. www.unep.org/unep/eia/ein/grid/icimod/. Accessed December 30, 2002.

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World Bank (ADB, AfDB, DFID, OECD and others), 2003: Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor Through Adaptation, 43pp.

World Bank. 2002. World Development Indicators. On CD Rom. World Bank, Washington, DC.

WRI. 2000. World Resources: 2000-2001. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.

Yogacharya, K.S. and M.L. Shrestha. 1997. A Report on Climate Change Scenarios for Nepal. Prepared for the U.S. Country Studies Program by the Centre for Research Team, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Yogacharya, K.S. and R.B. Pradhan. 1997. A Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios in Agricultural Production System in Nepal. Center for Agriculture Technology, Kathmandu, Nepal. February.

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ANNEX. SOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND PROJECTS

Statistics

CRS database, OECD/World Bank http://www.oecd.org/htm/M00005000/M00005347.htm

Documents of His Majesty’s Government (HMG) of Nepal

Tenth Plan/PRSP

• concept paper (2002) http://www.ndf2002.gov.np/

• website http://npc.gov.np:8080/tenthplan/the_tenth_plan.htm

Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)

• Papers for MTEF (2002) http://www.ndf2002.gov.np/consult.html

• Final MTEF (2002) http://npc.gov.np:8080/prsp/mtef_prsp/index2.jsp

Donor Review for 2002 Development Forum (2002) http://www.ndf2002.gov.np/

National Planning Commission www.npc.gov.np

UN Conventions

UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) www.unccd.int

• National Report (2000)

UN Convention on Biodiversity (UNCBD) www.biodiv.org

• Nepal Biodiversity Strategy (2002)

• National Report (1997)

• Second National Report (2001)

National Sustainable Development Strategy

• Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (2002) http://www.scdp.org.np/sdan/

World Summit on Sustainable Development

• Country Profile (2002) http://www.scdp.org.np/wssd/

• National Assessment Report (2002) http://www.scdp.org.np/wssd/nar/index.html


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UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

• Nepal Country Paper (1996) http://www.unescap.org/tctd/gt/nepal.htm

• Update report (2001) www.unescap.org/tctd/gt/nepal2001.htm

Donor reports

ADB www.adb.org

• Country Assistance Plan (2000)

• Melamchi water supply project, Report and Recommendation of the President (2000)

• Seventh Power Project, Project Completion Report (2001)

• Forestry Sector Program, Project Performance Audit Report (2001)

• Mini-hydropower project, Project Performance Audit Report(1998)

DANIDA

• Community forestry development sector programme (1999)

• Environment Sector Programme (1999)

• Natural Resource Management Sector Assistance Programme (1999)

DFID www.dfid.gov.uk

• Country Strategy Paper (1998)

IFAD

• Country Strategic Opportunities Paper (2000), report no. 1077-NP

• Western Upland Poverty Alleviation Project (Report and Recommendation of the President, 2001, environmental screening and scoping note)

ÖEZA (Austrian Development Cooperation)

• Small Hydro Project Evaluation Nepal & Bhutan, Final Report (2001)

• Namche Bazaar Small Hydropower Project, same report

• Makulu-Barun National Park Buffer Zone Development (Eco Himal),Project proposal (2002)

• Thame Valley Village Development (Eco Himal), Project Document, (2001)

UNDP www.undp.org.np

• Country Cooperation Framework (2002)

• Sustainable Community Development Programme (1999)

• Made in Nepal: Nepal’s Sustainable Community Development Programme. Capacity21 Approaches to Sustainability Country Study (2001)

UNEP www.unep.org

• UNEP/ICIMOD GLOF inventorization (2002) http://www.rrcap.unep.org/glofnepal/guide/movie.html


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USAID www.usaid.gov

• Nepal Annual Report (2002)

World Bank www.worldbank.org

• Country Assistance Strategy (1998)

• Country Assistance Strategy Progress Report (2002)

• Country Brief (2002)

• Economic Update (2002) http://www.ndf2002.gov.np/.

• Power Development Project, Project information document (2002)

• Power Development Project – Sectoral Environmental Assessment (by HMG)

• The Policy Framework for Environmental Impact Assessment for projects under the Power Development Fund (1999)

• Proposed Power Sector Development Strategy (2001)

• Irrigation Sector Project, Project Appraisal Document (1997)

• Second Rural Water Supply Project, Project Information Document (2001)

• Road Maintenance and Development Project, Project Appraisal Document (1999)

• Rural Infrastructure Project, Project Appraisal Document (1999)


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APPENDIX A

Consultative Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a Focus on Hydrological Regime Changes including GLOF,

Kathmandu, March 5-6 2003

Wednesday, 5 March 2003

09:00-09:30

Registration

Inaugural Session

Chief Guest: Academician Dipak Gyawali, Hon. Minister, MoWR

Chairperson: Prof. Dr. Dayananda Bajracharya, VC, RONAST

09:30 Arrival of Chief Guest

9:30-9:35

Welcome Address: Mr. Adarsha P. Pokhrel, DG, DHM

9:35-9:45

Welcome Address: Dr. Shardul Agrawala, Environment Directorate, OECD

9:45-9:50

Introduction and Objectives of Workshop

Ms. Vivian Raksakulthai, ADPC

9:50-10:05

Inauguration and Inaugural Speech: Academician Dipak Gyawali,

Hon. Minister, MoWR

10:05-10:10

Chairperson’s Remark

10:10-10:15

Vote of Thanks: Dr. Madan Lall Shrestha, DDG, DHM

10:15-10:45

Refreshments


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Session I

Chairperson: Prof. Suresh R. Chalise

Rapporteur: Mr. Om Ratna Bajracharya/Mr. Suresh Marahatta

10:45-11:05

Climate Change in Nepal

Dr. Arun Shreshtha, DHM

11:05-11:25

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Nepal

Dr. Keshav P. Sharma, DHM

11:25-11:50

Climate Change and GLOF Risks

Mr. Pradeep Mool, ICIMOD

11:50-12:10

A Case Study of Tam Pokhari GLOF, 1998

Mr. Shri Kamal Duibedi, DWIDP

12:10-12:30

Impact on Hydrology of Nepal due to Climate Change and its Impact on Hydropower Projects. Dr. Narendra Shakya, IOE

12:30-13:00

Discussion

13:00-13:45

Lunch

Session II

Chairperson: Dr. Janak L. Karmacharay, MD, NEA

Rapporteur: Om Ratna Bajracharya/Saraju Baidya

13:45-14:00

Hydropower Development Plan

Devi Bahadur Thapa, NEA

14:00-14:20

Climate Change GLOF and Small Hydropower; Their Inter-linkages

Mr. Pushpa Chitrakar, GTZ

14:20-14:50

Adaptation for Nepal: Challenges and Opportunities

Prof. Bidur P. Upadhayay, CDHM, TU

14:50-15:05

Tea/Coffee break


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15:05-15:35

Discussion

15:35-16:00 Introduction to Adaptation Assessment Tool


Thursday, 6 March 2003

Session III

Chairperson:Dr. Binayak Bhadra, ICIMOD

Rapporteur: Ms. Vivian Raksakulthai, ADPC

09:00-9:15

Introduction to Adaptation Assessment Tool


9:15-9:30

Synthesis and Review of Day 1

Dr. Shardul Agrawala,, OECD

9:30-10:00

Introduction and guidelines for Working Groups

Mr. Adarsha P. Pokhrel, DHM

10:00-11:15

Group Discussion (Tea/Coffee Served)

Session IV

Chairperson: Mr. Bikash Pandey, Winrock International

Rapporteur: Ms. Vivian Raksakulthai, ADPC

11:15-12:00

Presentation by Groups and Discussion

Concluding Session

Chairman: Hon. Dr. Yuvraj Khatiwada, NPC

Rapporteur: Dr. Arun B. Shrestha, DHM

12:00-12:30

• Recommendations by Mr. Bikash Pandey • Concluding Remarks by Chairman

12:30-13:15

Lunch


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55

APPENDIX B

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

Consultative Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a Focus on Hydrological Regime Changes including GLOF, Kathmandu,

March 5-6 2003

Name Title/Affiliation Dipak Gyawali Hon.Minister, MoWR Yuvraj Khatiwada Hon. Member, NPC Adarsha P. Pokhrel Director General, DHM Madan L. Shrestha, Dr. Deputy Director General, DHM Keshav P. Sharma, Dr. DHM Purna B. Shrestha Consultant, DHM Arun B. Shrestha, Dr. Hydrologist, DHM Birbal Rana, Dr. Meteorologist, DHM Tony Carvalho USAID Puspa Chitrakar Sen. Eng Adv., GTZ Janak Lal Karmacharya, Dr. MD, NEA Devi Bahadur Thapa, Dr. NEA Bhoj Raj Regmi Director NEA Tek Gurung UNDP Bidur P. Upadyaya, Prof. Dr. Head of Department, Tribhuvan University Lochan P. Devkota Assoc. Prof., Tribhuvan University Khadga B. Thapa Professor, Tribhuvan University Deepak Kharal Forest Economist, WECS Binayak Bhadra, Dr. DDG, ICIMOD Mandira Shrestha Water Res. Spec., ICIMOD Pradeep K. Mool, GIS Spec., ICIMOD Kamal Risal ICIMOD Purushottam Kunwar Under Secretary, MoPE Narendra Shakya, Dr. Institute of Engineering Rabindra Bhattarai Institute of Engineering Bal Krishna Sapkota Institute of Engineering Lekh Man Singh, Dr. DG, DoED Dilli Bahadur Singh DoED Madan B. Basnet, Dr. Director, AEPC Vishwo B. Amatya AEPC Mahesh Banskota, Dr. Director, IUCN Bikas Pandey Country Repr., Winrock Manoj Ghimire Kathmandu


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Ajaya Dixit NWCF Shri Kamal Duibedi DWIDP, Jawalakhel Janak Lal Nayava, Dr. Vice Chairman, SOHAM-Nepal Jaya Pal Shrestha Reg. Env. Special, Embassy of USA Michael R. DeTar Reg. Env. Officer, Embassy of USA John Reynolds, Dr. Director, Reynolds Geosciences Vivian Rakshakulthai ADPC Shardul Agrawala, Dr. Administrator, OECD Ramesh Regmi Meteorologist, DHM Saraju Baidya Meteoroligist, DHM Suresh Marahatta Secretary, SOHAM-Nepal Om Ratna Bajracharya Sen. Div., DHM Keshav R. Sharma DHM Kumar Rajbhandari Organizer Usha Joshi DHM, Organizer Bharat Regmi DHM, Organizer Santosh Ram Joshi Program Assistant, IUCN Ajay Karki GTZ Small Hydro Project Krish Krishnan International Resources Group


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APPENDIX C

GCM Predictive Errors for Each SCENGEN Model for Nepal

These tables show the predictive error for annual precipitation levels for each SCENGEN model for each country. Each model is ranked by its error score, which was computed using the formula 100*[(MODEL MEAN BASELINE / OBSERVED) - 1.0]. Error scores closest to zero are optimal. For Nepal, the first seven models had significantly lower error scores than the remaining 10; therefore, the latter 10 were dropped from the analysis.

Averagea error Minimum error Maximum error Models to be kept for estimation BMRCTR98 46% 24% 79% ECH4TR98 49% 9% 113% LMD_TR98 65% 55% 91% ECH3TR95 67% 28% 158% MRI_TR96 76% 15% 209% W&M_TR95 92% 0% 227% HAD3TR00 96% 2% 253% Models to be dropped from estimation CSI2TR96 125% 4% 374% CSM_TR98 125% 16% 292% CERFTR98 153% 21% 340% PCM_TR00 155% 13% 343% IAP_TR97 187% 8% 421% CCSRTR96 201% 87% 383% HAD2TR95 225% 73% 589% GFDLTR90 237% 36% 513% GISSTR95 270% 111% 551% CCC1TR99 325% 206% 475% a. SCENGEN outputs data for 5×5 degree grids. To estimate for an entire country, a 10×10 degree area was used and the data output from the resulting four 5×5 grids were averaged. The maximum and minimum of these four 5×5 grids are also reported.


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APPENDIX D

Analysis of Select Development Project and Strategy Documents

D.1 Projects dealing explicitly with climate related risks

D.1.1 UNEP/ICIMOD GLOF inventorization

This three-year study was a collaboration between UNEP and the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Katmandu. It concluded that as a conservative estimate, 20 glacial lakes in Nepal (and 24 in Bhutan) are at high risk of bursting their banks in the coming five years, causing the so-called Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). The rising GLOF risk is attributed to increased glacier melt related to global warming. Adaptation options include engineering works to reduce water levels in the lakes, and early warning systems to alert people in the region about impending floods.

D.1.2 Austrian Development Cooperation GLOFS research project

A research project funded by Austrian Development Cooperation also analyzed GLOF risks in Bhutan and Nepal. The research in Bhutan also included the design of mitigation measures, including the erection of protection walls for some of the houses downstream, the installation of an early warning system (at the study site, floods are estimated to take seven hours to reach the main populated areas), the introduction of a hazard zonation concept, as well as awareness raising.

D.2 Other development programs and projects

D.2.1 Sustainable community development program (UNDP, 1999)

The UNDP-supported Sustainable Community Development Program28 (until 1999) focused at arrangements for local level development activities, but has no references to natural hazards. Nevertheless, its watershed management activities contribute to a reduction of landslides, flooding and erosion. The Program also contained an interesting pilot project, the so-called Eco-Village. A small village of sixteen households switched to biogas as energy source. While promoting renewable energy, the pilot also resulted in a higher forest cover in watershed areas, thus reducing the risks mentioned above and contributing to adaptation. A true overlap of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

D.2.2. Rural Energy Development Programme (REDP/UNDP)

The UNDP supported Rural Energy Development Programme (REDP) completed its pilot phase in early 2002 demonstrating micro-hydro based rural energy systems in over 100 village development committees (VDCs) producing over 1.1 MW of electricity. REDP takes a holistic approach to natural resource management and capacity enhancement for sustainable development. Climate change was not mentioned in its original document but a retrospective calculation has estimated cumulative reduction of carbon emissions by 7,105 tonnes over a five year period.

D.2.3 Community forestry development sector program (DANIDA, 1999)

28 UNDP, 2001. Made in Nepal: Nepal’s Sustainable Community Development Programme. Capacity21 Approaches to Sustainability Country Study.


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DANIDA is involved in a five-year (1998-2003) Natural Resource Management Sector Assistance Programme (NARMSAP), a continuation of similar work under the World Bank Hill Community Forestry Project. By promoting community forestry development, the sector program contributes to poverty reduction, but also to adaptation to climate risks, as well as climate change mitigation (through carbon sequestration). Neither of these two aspects is explicitly considered in the component description. The description also lacks an analysis of climate risks to the program’s implementation and objectives. However, given that the main program outputs are mainly institutional (the establishment of local Forest User Groups, which will manage the forests, and their support structures), direct climate risks are probably limited, and indirect effects on climate vulnerability are likely to be only positive.

D.2.4 Environment Sector Program (DANIDA, 1999)

In addition to the Natural Resource Management Sector Assistance Programme, DANIDA is also managing an Environment Sector Programme. Its main aims are the establishment of an institute for environmental management, cleaner production in industry, wastewater treatment in selected industrial areas, and institutional strengthening of environmental authorities. Such activities may have a slight positive impact on Nepal’s climate vulnerability, but climate risks to the program are likely to be limited. In any case, they are not discussed in the program description.

D.2.5 Power development project29 (World Bank)

The Nepal Power Development Project is about to be approved by the World Bank in February 2003. In line with the Bank’s Power strategy and the government’s revised Hydropower Development Policy, it aims to develop Nepal’s hydropower potential, improve access to electricity in rural areas, and promote private participation in the power sector. Bilateral donors (USA, Germany, Norway) will provide technical support to prepare the investment pipeline, while the World Bank will take the lead in providing investment funding for private development of small- and medium-sized hydro plants. In addition, the Bank supports community-based village electrification through development of micro-hydro systems, as an extension of the successful UNDP Rural Energy Development Program. While the development of smaller hydropower plants and community-based management of those resources may well contribute to adaptation to climate change, this is no explicit objective. Climate change, or even current climate variability and natural hazards are not mentioned in the Project Information Document30.

D.2.6 Power development project – sectoral environmental assessment (HMGN)

As part of the preparations for the Power Development Project, Nepal prepared a Sectoral Environmental Assessment (SEA) for the hydropower sector. In this case, SEA is used as an instrument to provide “upstream” screening of potential hydropower projects to be funded out of the Power Development Project’s Power Development Fund. Beyond environmental impact studies, it looks at social aspects and risks caused by as well as risks to possible project components and sites. It supported a screening and ranking exercise by the Nepal Electricity Authority, which looked at a whole range of possible hydropower options, and ranked them with multiple criteria, in a process of open consultation with all stakeholders. While climate change as such is not explicitly mentioned, the selection and ranking process did include considerations of sedimentation, maintenance of adequate water quality, and glacial lake outburst floods. The SEA itself states that monitoring of relevant watersheds (above existing or proposed hydropower plants) and their appropriate management need to be incorporated in investments for power development, to reduce risks of erosion and sedimentation. Similarly, glacial lakes above existing or 29 Project information document

30 On the other hand, the project does contain a component to strengthen maintenance and repair capacity, and allows for a certain percentage of failures to remain

economically viable.


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proposed hydropower sites should be monitored. While the strategy does not mention climate change as such, incorporating integral monitoring, risk evaluation and watershed management into investments in hydropower is a very strong example of adaptation to current and future climate risks. Interestingly, one of the projects selected in the screening process is a storage project, where water is stored during the monsoon season and released in the dry winter, thus augmenting the low flows through the system. This is another example of adaptation, in this case to current and possibly future precipitation variability.

The Policy Framework for Environmental Impact Assessment for projects under the Power Development Fund (Nepal, 1999) contains no specific attention to natural hazard risk management, and it lacks a discussion of potential climate risks to hydropower projects.

D.2.7 Power development strategy (World Bank)

The World Bank’s proposed Power Sector Development Strategy (World Bank, 2001) analyzes the key implementation constraints facing Nepal’s hydropower development, and proposes options for reform. In addition to institutional restructuring, the strategy proposes an active role for the government in promoting power trade with India and improving rural access to electricity. For the latter, Nepal should supplement existing institutional methods of delivering electricity to rural areas with innovative approaches, such as community based systems, presumably including micro-hydropower. One the other hand, the strategy points to the strong need for private investments in large-scale hydropower, but warns that “Factors such as financing terms (and their implications for tariffs), the creditworthiness of buyers, cost of alternatives and environmental impacts must play an important role in deciding the location of sites and the number and magnitude of contracts to be awarded.” Curiously, natural hazard risks to the plant and its environment are not considered in this list of factors. It could be that the strategy neglects these risks given that, ideally, the first screening of possible sites, as well as follow-up engineering studies, should include these considerations. In practice however, natural hazard risks do not appear on the radar screen of decision makers (except once a disaster occurs), and get less consideration than other factors that do appear in lists such as the one in this strategy. Interestingly, the list does include environmental impacts. If these impacts were to be defined broadly, and would include not only the risk of the hydropower plant to its environment but also vice-versa, natural hazards would automatically be considered in the context of the environmental impacts analysis (EIA). However, standard EIA guidelines seldom include such considerations. In the whole strategy, the word climate only appears as, “climate for mobilizing private capital”. 31 Climate change is not mentioned.

D.2.8 The Nepal irrigation sector project32 (World Bank, 1997)

The Project Appraisal Document for the Nepal Irrigation Sector Project states: “Population pressure and the ad-hoc development of water resources have resulted in some adverse impacts on the country's ecological systems, for example... increased frequency of freak floods and droughts in many parts of the Terai.” While climate variability and change are not mentioned explicitly in the Appraisal Document, addressing issues like these clearly contributes to a reduction in vulnerability. Another example of the impact of seasonal weather extremes is the Sunsari Morang Irrigation system, which is targeted in one of the sub-projects. According to the Appraisal Document, this huge irrigation system has been plagued by sedimentation during the flood season since its inception. Given Nepal’s torrential and sediment-laden rivers, similar problems with sedimentation are one of the technical challenges for almost all irrigation systems. 31 There is a brief discussion about minimum flow requirements (for environmental reasons) in drought years. Drought as a risk factor to hydropower generation also

features in several examples of hydropower development in other countries (including in Sri Lanka and New Zealand), but is not explicitly worked out in the strategy

itself. Neither floods nor GLOFS are mentioned anywhere.

32 Project Appraisal Document (1997).


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D.2.9 Second rural water supply project33 (World Bank)

Again, the Project Information Document does not pay explicit attention to climate risks. However, the risk of landslides is mentioned as one of the environmental risks that can be avoided with appropriate project design, and the environmental section of the Project Information Document describes several guidelines for project implementation that would result in reduced vulnerability to climate risks, including watershed management, and promotion of integrated management of local water resources.

D.2.10 Road maintenance and development project (World Bank, 1999)

This project contains little discussion on natural hazards and climate risks, but the section on the analysis of alternative candidate roads shows that current climate risks, including risk related to extreme weather, floods, and landslides, were taken into account in the road design.34 In addition, the Environmental Impact Analysis looked at impacts on land stability (slope stability hazards, erosion, drainage), and performed a full hazard rating along each road alignment. For critical areas, mitigative measures are included (such as appropriate drainage and bio-engineering). Climate change is not mentioned (studies were based solely on current conditions).

D.2.11 Rural infrastructure project (World Bank)

This project, which mainly aims to strengthen the local institutional capacity to improve rural roads, does not discuss climate-related risks. In the section on sustainability and risks, the two main issues are institutional sustainability and the maintenance and rehabilitation of the roads themselves. In the latter context, the role of floods and landslides, which might damage the roads, is not discussed. One of the reasons may be that the project objectives and key performance indicators for the physical investments are focusing mainly on the short term. For instance, one of the indicators is that the roads that are maintained or rehabilitated under the project will remain in operation for three (!) years after project completion. At such timescales, climate change is not a major factor. Current climate-related risks however ought to be considered. In fact, they are implicitly taken into account in another indicator, namely that the non-passability of roads is reduced to two months per year (presumably during the wet season).

D.2.12 Melamchi water supply project35

This large (US$ 464 million) project, co-financed by a number of donors, was designed over the course of several years in response to the ever-increasing demand for water in Katmandu Valley. Due to catchment deforestation, this area suffers from rapid runoff in the short wet season and water shortages in the dry season. In recent years, given a lack of runoff, users have resorted to extracting groundwater, which fails to be recharged naturally during the wet season. The project contains a diversion of water from the Melamchi river into the Katmandu valley, as well as social and environmental support, institutional reforms, and implementation support. Aside from the general considerations mentioned above, the report does not discuss climate risks. Climate change is not mentioned.

D.2.13 Seventh power project (ADB, 1988-1999)36

33 Project Information Document (2001)

34 The environmental screening of various alternative road locations included landslide hazard, slope failure risk, river bank erosion, and flood risk. In the final design,

further refinement was undertaken with respect to geology (including landslide risk), topography (including flood risk) and land use (including degraded forests and

bare land). Generally, roads would be constructed above valley flood levels, and above landslides on the lower slopes near rivers.

35 Report and recommendations of the President (2000)

36 Project Completion Report


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This project was designed well before climate change featured prominently on the global agenda. However, it is interesting to assess to what extent completed projects in sectors currently vulnerable to climate risks have suffered from natural hazards during implementation. The Project Completion Report of this Seventh Power Project provides and interesting example. The project suffered from severe delays (three extensions were needed to complete the project). One of the factors responsible for this delay were heavy rains:“Heavy monsoon rains in Nepal usually commence in June and end in September, flooding the plains and causing landslides and land erosion, disrupting daily life and transportation, and making it impossible for contractors to erect transmission and distribution lines (…) The impact of the monsoon on project implementation was not considered adequately when planning the construction works”. Hence, climatic factors strongly influenced project performance, not just in terms of its long-term benefits, but already during implementation. Note that none of the current projects that were reviewed contain descriptions of monsoon rains similar to the one in this ex-post evaluation.

D.2.14 Forestry sector program, ADB37

While forestry activities could well contribute to both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, climate change, nor climate risks, are mentioned in this audit report.

D.2.15 Mini-hydropower project (ADB 1981-1991)38

This is another example of a completed project where current climate-related risks had not been properly taken into account in project design. Overall, the project was deemed unsuccessful, based on a poor economic return and serious issues with respect to the future sustainability. Climate-related risks played a large role in this failure. First of all, the audit mentions that “The consultant underestimated the extreme force of flash floods and the damage caused by landslides and huge boulders. The potential damage to weirs and intakes caused by floods was not fully appreciated. Many of the foundation and land stability problems would have been recognized and solutions engineered before construction, had a geologist and geotechnical engineer been included in the UNDP-financed consulting team” The projects were indeed plagued by natural hazards. In one case, landslides redirected waters towards a plant’s powerhouse, resulting in flood and the death of two employees. According to the audit “it is unclear to which the subproject’s design with respect to the powerhouse may have contributed to the problem”. In general, recurring post-flood repairs to weirs and intakes negatively affected electricity production output, as the repairs often required water diversions and curtailment of power supply. In one case, inadequate water flow forced operational shutdowns for more than two months each year and reduced generation for large parts of each day. These factors all contributed to the fact that four out of the six subprojects are not sustainable in their current operating mode without continued subsidy from the government. In addition, the audit notes: “all projects remain highly vulnerable to seasonal floods, landslides, and other natural occurrences owing in part to a lack of robustness in design.” In the end, the audit draws rather negative conclusions about small-scale hydropower plants, and suggests that large-scale hydropower might be more cost-effective.

D.2.16 Namche Bazaar small hydropower project (Austrian Development Cooperation)39

The evaluation document evaluates two small hydropower projects and related development activities, one in Nepal and one in Bhutan. The project in Nepal was the Namche Bazaar small hydropower and rural electrification project, which included several subsequent components over about 25 years. A first

37 Project Performance Audit Report, 2001

38 Project Performance Audit Report, 1998

39 Small Hydropower projects final report (evaluation), 2001


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hydropower plant was being built when it was hit by a GLOF in 1985. Subsequently, between 1988 and 1994, a new site was selected and a new plant constructed. After 1994, Austria supported further institutional development and training, so that a locally owned private organization could take over the management of the plant. The evaluation notes that the total investment costs were rather high, and that the project took much more time and management efforts than originally planned. Nevertheless, it was deemed a success. Austria’s willingness to engage in intensive long-term efforts probably made the difference between this project and comparable, but less successful, hydropower projects by other donors. Besides the advantages of the electrification, the project has also brought benefits in terms of a reduction of the use of firewood, as planned. The evaluation mentions the extreme climatic circumstances in which the plant was built, and cites them as a continuing problem for the plant’s buildings. No reference is made to climate change.

D.2.17 Makulu-Barun national park buffer zone development (Austrian Development Cooperation/Eco Himal)40

This rural development project for the buffer zone of the Makulu-Barun national park contains a variety of components, including education, health, natural resource management and biodiversity conservation, gender balance, and conflict mediation between various stakeholders. Current climate-related risks to the project are listed explicitly under “external factors”: “the high altitude mountain environment of the projects generally exposed to natural hazards like heavy rainfall in the monsoon season, long lasting droughts during winter time, and landslides”. No concrete measures are proposed to mitigate these risks. However, the project does promote soil protection and erosion control, measures which would reduce vulnerability to floods and droughts. Climate change is not mentioned.

D.2.18 Thame Valley village development (Austrian Development Cooperation/Eco Himal)41

This rural development project targets the Thame Valley, in the Everest Region. Due to its location away from the route to the Everest base camp, this valley attracts few tourists, and lags surrounding areas in development. An interesting example of vulnerability to climate-related risk: “Eco Himal has built two bridges in the valley in 1997 and 1998. Both of them were designed according to traditional local conceptions. Unfortunately, they did not survive the unusually intensive monsoon in 1998. Therefore, it is essential to struggle for a long-lasting solution”. The project document mentions “weather” as an external factor, but does not discuss how to minimize those risks to the project and its development goals. However, it does pay attention to erosion and landslide risks. For instance, the project will relocate the Dumji House (centre for an important festival) in the light of high landslide risks in an erosion-prone area.

D.2.19 IFAD Western Uplands poverty alleviation project42

In line with IFAD’s 2000 Country Strategic Opportunities Paper (see above) this project addresses the hills and mountains in the west of Nepal. Poverty in these areas is attributed firstly to “the extremely harsh terrain and climate”, but also to, e.g., remoteness, lack of services, limited government presence, absence of donors, extremely limited savings and credit facilities, and poor links with markets due to the lack of infrastructure. While the project contains no measures that are explicitly aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate risks, it is almost certain to address various aspects of these regions’ vulnerability by enhancing agricultural opportunities and natural resource management, and by establishing rural microfinance opportunities. More specific attention to climate risks, and particularly to possibly changing climatic

40 Project proposal, 2002

41 Project Document, 2001

42 Report and recommendation of the President (2001), Environmental Screening and Scoping Note (2001)


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circumstances, might have helped to target, for instance, agricultural research activities. In addition, potentially substantial climate-related risks to physical investments are not discussed.

The Environmental Screening and Scoping Note discusses several climate related problems that could affect the project. Infrastructure construction could cause excess erosion during the rainy season, and small-scale irrigation could cause conflicts over water management and water allocations between villages, and increased breeding habitats for disease vectors. The additional impact of climate change on these considerations is not discussed.

Development and Climate Change in Bangladesh:

Focus on Coastal Flooding and the Sundarbans

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Unclassified COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2003)3/FINAL Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 01-Dec-2003 ___________________________________________________________________________________________


DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN BANGLADESH: Focus on Coastal Flooding and the Sundarbans

JT00155032


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Copyright OECD, 2003.



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FOREWORD

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity being jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP) of the Environment Directorate, and the Network on Environment and Development Co-operation of the Development Co-operation Directorate. The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Insights from the work are therefore expected to have implications for the development assistance community in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.

This document has been authored by Shardul Agrawala and Tomoko Ota, drawing upon three primary consultant inputs that were commissioned for this country study: “Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh” by Ahsan Uddin Ahmed (Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka); “Analysis of GCM Scenarios and Ranking of Principal Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Bangladesh” by Stratus Consulting, Boulder, USA (Joel Smith); and “Review of Development Plans, Strategies, Assistance Portfolios, and Select Projects Potentially Relevant to Climate Change in Bangladesh” by Maarten van Aalst of Utrecht University, The Netherlands.

In addition to delegates from WPGSP and DAC-Environet, comments from Tom Jones, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Georg Caspary, and Remy Paris of the OECD Secretariat are gratefully appreciated. The Secretariat and Maarten van Aalst would like to acknowledge several members of the OECD DAC who provided valuable materials on country strategies as well as specific projects. Stratus Consulting would like to acknowledge inputs from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).


Further inquiries about either this document or ongoing work on sustainable development and climate change should be directed to Shardul Agrawala of the OECD Environment Directorate: [email protected], or Georg Caspary of the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate: [email protected].


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD.................................................................................................................................................. 3


1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2. Country background......................................................................................................................... 9 3. Climate: baseline, scenarios, and key vulnerabilities ..................................................................... 11

3.1 Current climate ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Climate change and sea level rise projections .......................................................................... 12

4. Key impacts and vulnerabilities ..................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Water resources......................................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Coastal resources ...................................................................................................................... 19 4.3 Human health............................................................................................................................ 20 4.4 Agriculture................................................................................................................................ 20 4.5 Priority ranking of risks ............................................................................................................ 21

5. Attention to climate concerns in donor activities ........................................................................... 23 5.1 Donor activities affected by climate risks................................................................................. 24 5.2 Climate risk in selected donor strategies................................................................................... 28 5.3 Attention to climate risks in selected development programs and projects .............................. 30

6. Attention to climate concerns in national planning........................................................................ 31 6.1 Climate policies and national communications to international environmental agreements .... 31 6.2 Interim poverty reduction strategy paper (I-PRSP) .................................................................. 32 6.3 Other national policies of relevance to climate change ............................................................ 32

7. Climate change and coastal flooding.............................................................................................. 34 7.1 Climate change impacts on coastal flooding............................................................................. 35 7.2 Adaptation options available for management of coastal flooding........................................... 35 7.3 Steps considered recently for the reduction of flood related vulnerability ............................... 37

8. Climate change and the Sundarbans............................................................................................... 41 8.1 Climate change impacts on the Sundarbans.............................................................................. 43 8.2 Adaptation options for the Sundarbans..................................................................................... 45 8.3 Measures undertaken to enhancing the flow regime in the Sundarbans ................................... 46 8.4 Potential adaptation benefits from planned and ongoing activities .......................................... 47

9. Concluding remarks ....................................................................................................................... 49

APPENDIX A: PREDICTIVE ERRORS FOR SCENGEN ANALYSIS FOR BANGLADESH .............. 52

APPENDIX B: LIST OF PURPOSE CODES INCLUDED IN THE SELECTION OF CLIMATE-AFFECTED PROJECTS, ORGANIZED BY THE DAC SECTOR CODE. ............................................... 53

APPENDIX C: REVIEW OF SELECTED DONOR STRATEGIES FOR BANGLADESH .................... 54

APPENDIX D: REVIEW OF SELECTED DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS/PROGRAMMES.................. 58

APPENDIX E: SOURCES FOR DOCUMENTATION .............................................................................. 63

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 66


5

Tables

Table 1. GCM estimates of temperature and precipitation changes ................................................... 13 Table 2. Partial listing of cyclones along coastal Bangladesh and respective surge heights .............. 14 Table 3. Change in rice yields in Asia under increments of temperature and CO2 level .................. 20 Table 4. Percent change in Chittagong rice yields.............................................................................. 21 Table 5. Priority ranking of climate change risks for Bangladesh...................................................... 22 Table 6. Shares (by amount) of CRS activities for top-five donors in Bangladesh (1998-2000) ....... 27 Table 7. Shares (by number) of CRS activities for top-five donors in Bangladesh (1998-2000) ....... 27 Table 8. Climate change implications on select development projects in Bangladesh....................... 30 Table 9. Key characteristics of the districts in the coastal zone of Bangladesh.................................. 34 Table 10. Projects identified in the draft NWMP that contribute to adaptation to coastal flooding..... 41

Figures

Figure 1. Map of Bangladesh ............................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2. Development diamond for Bangladesh................................................................................. 11 Figure 3. Physiography of Bangladesh showing major floodplains..................................................... 16 Figure 4. Historical flood extents in Bangladesh ................................................................................. 17 Figure 5. Areal coverage of the 1998 flood.......................................................................................... 18 Figure 6. Development aid to Bangladesh (1998-2000) ...................................................................... 23 Figure 7. Share of aid amounts in activities affected by climate risk in Bangladesh (1998-2000) ...... 26 Figure 8. Share (by number) in activities affected by climate risk in Bangladesh (1998-2000).......... 26 Figure 9. Salinary ingress in the Sundarbans under 23 cm sea level rise............................................. 44

Boxes

Box 1. A brief description of MAGICC/SCENGEN............................................................................ 12 Box 2. The 1998 flood.......................................................................................................................... 17


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the integrated case study for Bangladesh carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Bangladesh are assessed and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios in Bangladesh are analyzed to examine the proportion of development assistance activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for coastal zones, particularly the coastal mangroves – the Sundarbans – which have been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Climate change poses significant risks for Bangladesh, yet the core elements of its vulnerability are primarily contextual. Between 30-70% of the country is normally flooded each year. The huge sediment loads brought by three Himalayan rivers, coupled with a negligible flow gradient add to drainage congestion problems and exacerbate the extent of flooding. The societal exposure to such risks is further enhanced by Bangladesh’s very high population and population density. Many projected climate change impacts including sea level rise, higher temperatures (mean temperature increases of 1.4°C and 2.4°C are projected by 2050 and 2100 respectively), evapo-transpiration losses, enhanced monsoon precipitation and run-off, potentially reduced dry season precipitation, and increase in cyclone intensity would in fact reinforce many of these baseline stresses that already pose a serious impediment to the economic development of Bangladesh. A subjective ranking of key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Bangladesh identifies water and coastal resources as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resources being affected.

Bangladesh receives around one billion dollars of Official Development Assistance (ODA) annually. Analysis of donor portfolios in Bangladesh using the OECD-World Bank Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database reveals that between 22-53% of development assistance (by aid amount) or 22-37% of donor projects (by number) are in sectors potentially affected by climatic risks. However, these numbers are only indicative at best, given that any classification based on sectors suffers from over-simplification – the reader is referred to the main report for a more nuanced interpretation. Donor country strategies and project documents generally lack explicit attention to climate change. Likewise, there is no national policy in place yet to comprehensively address climate change risks. At the same time however this report also reveals through a more in-depth analysis that despite this lack of explicit mention, a number of adaptations that climate change might necessitate are indeed already underway in Bangladesh, particularly since the mid-1990s, as part of regular development activity through several government-donor partnerships. A wide array of river dredging projects have been completed to reduce siltation and facilitate better drainage at times of flooding as well as to boost dry season flows to critical areas such as the Sundarbans. However there are remains an ongoing challenge with regard to their durability and sustainability. For example, measures such as dredging of waterways are not a one time response but require periodic repetition. Similarly flow regulators on coastal embankments require constant monitoring and maintenance for the lifetime of such structures. Monitoring and maintenance in turn requires continued government and donor interest as well as participation of the local population far beyond the original lifetime of the project.


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There are also some examples of development policies and priorities in Bangladesh that might potentially conflict with climate change responses. In particular, policies to encourage tourism and build tourism infrastructure in vulnerable areas of the coastal zone, particularly the Khulna region, might need to take into account the projected impacts of climate change to reduce the risk of mal-adaptation.Meanwhile, plans to encourage ecotourism in the fragile Sundarbans might risk adding one more stress to a fragile ecosystem that will likely be critically impacted by sea level rise and salinity concerns.

The Bangladesh case study also highlights the importance of the trans-boundary dimension in addressing climate change adaptation. The effect of water diversion upstream on dry season flows and salinity levels in the Sundarbans was in fact comparable to (if not higher than) the impact that might be experienced several decades later as a result of climate change. Adaptation to climate change might therefore not just be local but might require cross-boundary institutional arrangements such as the Ganges Water sharing treaty to resolve the current problems of water diversion. Finally, climate change risks should also not distract from aggressively addressing other critical threats, including shrimp farming, illegal felling of trees, poaching of wildlife, and oil pollution from barge traffic, that might already critically threaten the fragile ecosystems such as the Sundarbans even before significant climate change impacts manifest themselves.


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LIST OF ACCRONYMS

ADB BCAS BMZ BUET BWDB CERP CRS DFID DMB DOE DOF EDP FiFYP GBM GCM GDA GDP GEF GFDL GOB GRRP GWST ICZM IFAD IPCC IWM JICA KJDRP LGED MCS MES MOP MOWR MTP NAPA NBSAP NEMAP NFoP NLUP NTP NWMP NWP OGDA PDO PRSP SBCP SLR SPARRSO SRDI SRF UN UNCBD UNCCD UNDP UNEP UNESCO UNFCCC USAID WARPO

Asian Development Bank Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Bangladesh Water Development Board Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project Creditor Reporting System of the OECD/World Bank Department for International Development Disaster Management Bureau Department of Environment Department of Forest Estuary Development Program Fifth Five Year Plan Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna General Circulation Model Ganges Dependent Area Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Government of Bangladesh Gorai River Restoration Project Ganges Water Sharing Treaty Integrated Coastal Zone Management International Fund for Agricultural Development Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institute of Water Management Japan International Cooperation Agency Khulna-Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project Local Government Engineering Department Multi-purpose Cyclone Shelters Meghna Estuary Study Ministry of Planning Ministry of Water Resources Master Tourism Plan National Adaptation Plan of Action National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan National Environmental Management Action Plan National Forest Policy National Land Use Policy National Tourism Policy National Water Management Plan National Water Policy Options for Ganges Dependent Areas Project Development Office Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Sundarbans Biodiversity Conservation Project Sea Level Rise Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization Soil Resources Development Institute Sundarbans Reserve Forest United Nations United Nations Convention on Biodiversity United Nations Convention to combat Desertification United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The US Agency for International Development Water Resources Planning Organization


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1. Introduction

This report presents the integrated case study for Bangladesh for the OECD Development and Climate Change Project, an activity jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies and the Network on Environment and Development Co-operation. The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. The Bangladesh case study was conducted in parallel with five other country case studies1 in Africa, Latin America, and Asia and the Pacific.



2. Review of economic, environmental, and social plans and projects of both the government and international donors that bear upon the sectors and regions identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change. The purpose of this analysis is to assess the degree of exposure of current development activities and projects to climate risks, as well as the degree of current attention by the government and donors to incorporating such risks in their planning. This section will review donor portfolios and projects, as well as development priorities of the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) to determine the degree of attention to potential risks posed by climate change on relevant sectors.

3. In-depth analyses at a thematic, sectoral, regional or project level on how to incorporate climate responses within economic development plans and projects, again with a particular focus on natural resource management. This report identifies two inter-linked issues for in-depth analysis: (i) coastal zones at enhanced risk of flooding as a result of climate change; and (ii) the vulnerability of the coastal mangroves – Sundarbans – to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. These analyses were conducted in-country, based on a review of past, ongoing, and planned activities that bear upon the capacity of these two systems to adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change. This was supplemented by interviews by a case study consultant with individuals from key government agencies, NGOs, as well as local stakeholders. In addition, a workshop on climate issues by the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) and a national dialog on Water and Climate in preparation for the Third World Water Forum were taken as vehicles by a case study consultant to exchange ideas with participants and their views have been incorporated in the report.


Bangladesh is located between 20o to 26o North and 88o to 92o East. It is bordered on the west, north and east by India, on the south-east by Myanmar, and on the south by the Bay of Bengal (Figure 1). Most of the country is low-lying land comprising mainly the delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Floodplains occupy 80% of the country. Mean elevations range from less than 1 meter on tidal floodplains, 1 to 3 meters on the main river and estuarine floodplains, and up to 6 meters in the Sylhet basin in the north-east (Rashid 1991). Only in the extreme northwest are elevations greater than 30 meters above the

1 Egypt, Tanzania, Uruguay, Fiji, and Nepal


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mean sea level. The northeast and southeast portions of the country are hilly, with some tertiary hills over 1000 meters above mean sea level (Huq and Asaduzzaman 1999).

Figure 1. Map of Bangladesh

Bangladesh ranks low on just about all measures of economic development. This low level of development, combined with other factors such as its geography and climate, makes the country quite vulnerable to climate change. With a population of over 133 million people in a small area and a population density of more than 1,209 persons per km2, and 75% of the population lives in rural areas, Bangladesh is a very densely populated country (World Bank, 2002). Higher population density increases vulnerability to climate change because more people are exposed to risk and opportunities for migration within a country are limited.

The per capita income in Bangladesh is US$370. This ranks below average South Asian per capita income and per capita income for low income countries (World Bank, 2002). With a Gini Index of 0.332, income distribution is somewhat unequal, although less so than in many other countries. More than one-third (36%) of the people in Bangladesh live in poverty; in rural areas, it is 40%. About one-quarter of the country’s GDP comes from agriculture (World Bank, 2002), which makes the country’s economy relatively sensitive to climate variability and change.

It is difficult to determine Bangladesh’s potential to adapt to climate change, but several key statistics give some insight as to the state of its infrastructure and social and human capital. In 2000, the World Bank estimated that only 9.5% of Bangladesh’s 207,500 km network of roads was paved, putting it well below the average for low income countries of 16.5% (World Bank 2002), suggesting that its physical infrastructure in general might be less developed than that of low income countries. In the same year, the World Bank reported Bangladesh had only 51 scientists and engineers per million people, a number comparable to that for low income countries in general. Similarly, gross secondary and tertiary school enrollment stood at 47.5% and 4.8%, respectively, in 2000. A relatively uneducated and illiterate public

2 The Gini coefficient is a number between zero and one that measures the degree of inequality in the

distribution of income in a given society. The coefficient would register zero inequality for a society in which each member received exactly the same income and it would register a coefficient of one (maximum inequality) if one member got all the income and the rest got nothing.


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will be less capable of adapting to climate change, and thus has higher vulnerability. Of that 4.8% in tertiary schools, however, nearly 50% were science and engineering students, a figure that compares favorably with much of the world. Figure 2 provides an indication of how Bangladesh compares to other low income countries in terms of four key indices of development.

Figure 2. Development diamond for Bangladesh

Source: World Bank 2002

3. Climate: baseline, scenarios, and key vulnerabilities

This section briefly reviews projections of temperature and precipitation change for Bangladesh from climate models, and then addresses the major risks from climate change that Bangladesh may face. The sectoral risk is presented in order of importance. This order is based on subjective judgments about the significance of climate change impacts (which is a function of severity and importance of the affected resource), timing of impacts (whether the impacts are likely to be significant or noticeable in first half of this century or not until the latter half), and certainty of impact (any uncertainties about the relationship with climate change or the nature of the climate change itself).

3.1 Current climate

Bangladesh has a humid, warm, tropical climate. Its climate is influenced primarily by monsoon and partly by pre-monsoon and post-monsoon circulations. The south-west monsoon originates over the Indian Ocean and carries warm, moist, and unstable air. The monsoon has its onset during the first week of June and ends in the first week of October, with some inter-annual variability in dates. Besides monsoon, the easterly trade winds are also active, providing warm and relatively drier circulation. In Bangladesh there are four prominent seasons, namely, winter (December to February), Pre-monsoon (March to May), Monsoon (June to early-October), Post-monsoon (late-October to November). The general characteristics of the seasons are as follows:

• Winter is relatively cooler and drier, with the average temperature ranging from a minimum of 7.2 to 12.8˚C to a maximum of 23.9 to 31.1˚C. The minimum occasionally falls below 5oC in the north though frost is extremely rare. There is a south to north thermal gradient in winter mean temperature: generally the southern districts are 5oC warmer than the northern districts.

B angladesh

Lo w-inco m e gro up

D e v e lo p m e n t d ia m o n d

Life expec tancy

A cces s to im pro ved water so urce

GNIpercapita

Gro ssprim ary

enro llm ent


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• Pre-monsoon is hot with an average maximum of 36.7˚C, predominantly in the west for up to 10 days, very high rate of evaporation, and erratic but occasional heavy rainfall from March to June. In some places the temperature occasionally rises up to 40.6˚C or more. The peak of the maximum temperatures are observed in April, the beginning of pre-monsoon season. In pre-monsoon season the mean temperature gradient is oriented in southwest to northeast direction with the warmer zone in the southwest and the cooler zone in the northeast.

• Monsoon is both hot and humid, brings heavy torrential rainfall throughout the season. About four-fifths of the mean annual rainfall occurring during monsoon. The mean monsoon temperatures are higher in the western districts compared to that for the eastern districts. Warm conditions generally prevail throughout the season, although cooler days are also observed during and following heavy downpours.

• Post-monsoon is a short-living season characterised by withdrawal of rainfall and gradual lowering of night-time minimum temperature.

The mean annual rainfall is about 2300mm, but there exists a wide spatial and temporal distribution. Annual rainfall ranges from 1200mm in the extreme west to over 5000mm in the east and north-east (MPO, 1991).

3.2 Climate change and sea level rise projections

3.2.1 Temperature and precipitation

Changes in area averaged temperature and precipitation over Bangladesh were assessed based upon over a dozen recent GCMs using a new version of MAGICC/SCENGEN. MAGICC/SCENGEN is briefly described in Box 1. First results for Bangladesh for 17 GCMs developed since 1995 were examined. Next, 11 of 17 models which best simulate current climate over Bangladesh were selected. The models were run with the IPCC B2 SRES scenario (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000)3.


MAGICC/SCENGEN is a coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial climate-change scenario generator (SCENGEN). MAGICC is a Simple Climate Model that computes the mean global surface air temperature and sea-level rise for particular emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and sulphur dioxide (Raoer et al., 1996). MAGICC has been the primary model used by IPCC to produce projections of future global-mean temperature and sea level rise (see Houghton et al., 2001). SCENGEN is a database that contains the results of a large number of GCM experiments. SCENGEN constructs a range of geographically-explicit climate change scenarios for the world by exploiting the results from MAGICC and a set of GCM experiments, and combining these with observed global and regional climate data sets. SCENGEN uses the scaling method of Santer et al. (1990) to produce spatial pattern of change from an extensive data base of atmosphere ocean GCM – AOGCM (atmosphere ocean general circulation models) data. Spatial patterns are “normalized” and expressed as changes per 1°C change in global-mean temperature. The greenhouse-gas and aerosol components are appropriately weighted, added, and scaled up to the actual global-mean temperature. The user can select from a number of different AOGCMs for the greenhouse-gas component. For the aerosol component there is currently only a single set of model results. This approach assumes that regional patterns of climate change will be consistent at varying levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The MAGICC component employs IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) science (Houghton et al., 2001). The SCENGEN component allows users to investigate only changes in the mean climate state in response to external forcing. It relies mainly on climate models run in the latter half of the 1990s.


3 The IPCC SRES B2 scenario assumes a world of moderate population growth and intermediate level of

economic development and technological change. SCENGEN estimates a global mean temperature increase of 0.8 °C by 2030, 1.2 °C by 2050, and 2 °C by 2100 for the B2 scenario.


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The spread in temperature and precipitation projections of these 11 CMs for various years in the future provides an estimate of the degree of agreement across various models for particular projections. More consistent projections across various models will tend to have lower scores for the standard deviation, relative to the value of the mean. The results of the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis for Bangladesh are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. GCM estimates of temperature and precipitation changes



Year Annual DJF4 JJA5 Annual DJF JJA Baseline average

2278 mm 33.7 mm 1343.7 mm

2030 1.0 (0.11)

1.1 (0.18) 0.8 (0.16)

+3.8 (2.30)

-1.2 (12.56)

+4.7 (3.17)

2050 1.4 (0.16)

1.6 (0.26) 1.1 (0.23)

+5.6 (3.33)

-1.7 (18.15)

+6.8 (4.58)

2100 2.4 (0.28)

2.7 (0.46) 1.9 (0.40)

+9.7 (5.80)

-3.0 (31.60)

+11.8 (7.97)

The climate models all estimate a steady increase in temperatures for Bangladesh, with little inter-model variance.6 Somewhat more warming is estimated for winter than for summer. With regard to precipitation - whether there is an increase or decrease under climate change is a critical factor in estimating how climate change will affect Bangladesh, given the country’s extreme vulnerability to water related disasters. The key is what happens during the monsoon. More than 80% of the 2,300 mm of annual precipitation that falls on Bangladesh comes during the monsoon period (Smith et al., 1998). Most of the climate models estimate that precipitation will increase during the summer monsoon because they estimate that air over land will warm more than air over oceans in the summer. This will deepen the low pressure system over land that happens anyway in the summer and will enhance the monsoon7. It is notable that the estimated increase in summer precipitation appears to be significant; it is larger than the standard deviation across models. This does not mean that increased monsoon is certain, but increases confidence that it is likely to happen. The climate models also tend to show small decreases in the winter months of December through February. The increase is not statistically significant, and winter precipitation is just over 1% of annual precipitation. However, with higher temperatures increasing evapotranspiration combined with a small decrease in precipitation, dry winter conditions, even drought, are likely to be made worse.

The Bangladesh Country Study for the U.S. Country Studies Program used an older version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) transient model (Manabe et al., 1991) and projected that temperature would rise 1.3°C by 2030 (over mid-20th century levels) and 2.6°C by 2070. This is slightly higher than what is projected in Table 1 and may reflect lower climate sensitivity in more recent 4 December, January, and February – the winter months for Bangladesh 5 June, July, and August – the summer months for Bangladesh 6 Note that each GCM is scaled (i.e., regional changes are expressed relative to each model’s estimate of

mean global temperature change). Since the GCMs have different estimates of change in global mean temperature, this overstates inter-model agreement.

7 If, however, aerosols increase sufficiently, as a result of pollution and other causes, then it is possible they will exert a differential cooling effect over land. This is because pollution sources that are the source of the aerosols are found over land. Aerosols over land could therefore partially offset the warming over land, and it is possible that the air over land will warm less than air over oceans. This would weaken the low pressure system and the monsoon.


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climate models. The core findings however are consistent with the analysis presented above: the report estimated that winter warming would be greater than summer warming. The study also estimated little change in winter precipitation and an increase in precipitation during the monsoon (Ahmed and Alam, 1999).

3.2.2 Change in frequency and intensity of cyclones

Bangladesh currently has extreme vulnerability to cyclones, both on account of its somewhat unique location and topography (that creates an inverted funnel effect), and because of the low (though growing) capacity of its society and institutions to cope with such extreme events. Cyclones originate in the deep Indian Ocean and track through the Bay of Bengal where the shallow waters contribute to huge tidal surges when cyclones make landfall. Existing literature records storm surges in the range of 1.5 to 9 meters, and some sources even cite particular cyclones as having resulted in surges almost 15 m in height. A partial listing of major cyclones and accompanying surge heights is given in Table 2. Given that over two-thirds of the country is less than 5 m above sea-level and densely populated, storm surges contribute to flooding and loss of life and livelihoods far beyond the coast. The intense precipitation that usually accompanies the cyclone only adds to the damage through inland and riverine flooding. A cyclone in 1970 resulted in close to 300,000 deaths, and another, in 1991 led to the loss of 138,000 lives, although in recent years greater success in disaster management has significantly reduced the lives lost (World Bank 2000). Nevertheless, the potential for economic and infrastructural damage remains very significant.

Table 2. Partial listing of cyclones along coastal Bangladesh and respective surge heights

Cyclone event Season Storm Surge Height* (in meter)

November 1876 Post-monsoon 3.0~10.0 May 1941 Pre-monsoon 4.0 May 1960 Pre-monsoon 3.2

October 1960 (First Event) Post-monsoon 5.1 October 1960 (Second Event) Post-monsoon 6.6

May 1961 (First Event) Pre-monsoon 3.0 May 1961 (Second Event) Pre-monsoon 6.0~8.0

May 1965 Pre-monsoon 7.6 December 1965 Post-monsoon/winter 8.8 October 1967 Post-monsoon 7.6

May 1970 Pre-monsoon 5.0 October 1970 Post-monsoon 4.7

November 1970 Post-monsoon 9.0 September 1971 Monsoon 5.0 December 1973 Post-monsoon/winter 4.5

August 1974 Monsoon 6.7 November 1975 Post-monsoon 3.1

May 1985 Pre-monsoon 4.3 November 1988 Post-monsoon 4.4

April 1991 Pre-monsoon 4.0~8.0 Note: * Surge height varies based on location. Modified from Ali, 2003.

Given this current vulnerability, a critical question is whether (and how) climate change might affect cyclone patterns and intensity in the Bay of Bengal. The IPCC Third Assessment notes that because of their relatively small spatial extent current climate models do not do a good job of resolving the influence of climate change on cyclones. Further, the historical record has large decadal variability, which


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makes any trend analysis based upon only a limited time-series data difficult to interpret conclusively. Nevertheless, based on emerging insights from some climate model experiments as well as the empirical record, the IPCC Third Assessment concludes: “In conclusion, there is some evidence that regional frequencies of tropical cyclones may change but none that their locations will change. There is also evidence that the peak intensity may increase by 5% to 10% and precipitation rates may increase by 20% to 30%” (IPCC 2001).

Even this tentative assessment has several major implications for Bangladesh. First, there is no reason to assume that cyclone tracks will shift under climate change – meaning that Bangladesh is likely to expect to continue to be hit with. The possibility of an increase in peak intensities may increase by 5-10% has potentially serious implications for a country already very vulnerable to storm surges driven by strong winds. A potential implication would be that future storm surges might be even higher than those observed currently. And a projected increase in 20-30% in the associated precipitation could only make the concerns even more serious given that Bangladesh is also prone to inland flooding because of its topography and lying as it does at the mouth of three major river systems.

3.2.3 Sea level rise

Another critical variable that determines the vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts is the magnitude of sea level rise. There is no specific regional scenario for net sea level rise, in part because the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is still active and the morphology highly dynamic. Literature suggests that the coastal lands are receiving additional sediments due to tidal influence, while there are parts where land is subsiding due to tectonic activities (Huq et al. 1996). Since the landform is constituted by sediment decomposition, compaction of sediment may also play a role in defining net change in sea level along the coastal zone. A review of the literature and of expert opinion suggests that sediment loading may cancel out the effect of compaction and subsidence, so that net sea level rise may be assumed. The Bangladesh country study put the range at 30-100 cm by 2100, while the IPCC Third Assessment gives a global average range with slightly lower values of 9 to 88 cm. In any event the increases in mean sea level need to be viewed in conjunction with the discussion on cyclones in the preceding section. Higher mean sea levels are likely to compound the enhanced storm surges expected to result from cyclones with higher intensity. Even in non cyclone situations, higher mean sea levels are going to increase problems of coastal inundation and salinization in the low lying deltaic coast.

4. Key impacts and vulnerabilities

This section summarizes the potential impacts of climate change on key sectors in Bangladesh. Information is drawn from the Country Study (BCAS and DOE, undated), the World Bank study (World Bank 2000), Huq et al. (1999), and other sources where available. Sectors are listed in order of the subjective assessment of their relative vulnerability to climate change.

4.1 Water resources

Water related impacts of climate change will likely be the most critical for Bangladesh – largely related to coastal and riverine flooding, but also enhanced possibility of winter (dry season) drought in certain areas. The effects of increased flooding resulting from climate change will be the greatest problem faced by Bangladesh. Both coastal flooding (from sea and river water), and inland flooding (river/rain water) are expected to increase.

Flooding in Bangladesh is a regular feature and has numerous adverse effects, including loss of life through drowning, increased prevalence of disease, and destruction of property. This is because much of the Bangladesh is located on a floodplain of three major rivers and their numerous tributaries (Figure 3).


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One-fifth of the country is flooded every year, and in extreme years, two-thirds of the country can be inundated (Mirza, 2002). This vulnerability to flooding is exacerbated by the fact that Bangladesh is also a low-lying deltaic nation exposed to storm surges from the Bay of Bengal.

Figure 3. Physiography of Bangladesh showing major floodplains

There has been a trend in recent decades of much higher inter-annual variation in area flooded. As shown in Figure 4, since the late 1970s flooding events have tended to cover significantly lower or significantly higher areas than what was observed in prior decades. This trend in extremes cannot be simply attributed to climate change. Rather several other factors are at play. First, better flood monitoring and control measures have probably contributed to significant reduction in areal coverage of moderate flooding events, which now cover much lower area.


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Figure 4. Historical flood extents in Bangladesh

With regard to extremes at the upper end such as the 1988 and 1998 flooding events (Box 2), climatic variability (including events such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation) as well as long term climatic change could certainly be contributing factors. Looking into the future, climate change is likely to exacerbate flooding for a number of reasons, including the following:

• Increased glacier melt. Higher temperatures will result in more glacial melt, increasing runoff from the neighboring Himalayas into the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Given the altitude of the mountains and the enormous size of the glaciers, this problem will most likely continue over the century. The problem could be of even greater concern as there is evidence to show that temperatures in the Himalayas (where the glaciers are located) are rising at higher rates, thereby contributing to enhanced snow melt (see the Nepal case study).

• Increased precipitation. While this is not certain, the climate models tend to show increased precipitation, particularly during the monsoon season. This will contribute to increased runoff. For example, Mirza and Dixit (1997) found that a 2°C warming with a 10% increase in precipitation (close to the mean GCM projection for 2100 June-July- August) would increase runoff in the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers by 19%, 13%, and 11%, respectively.

Box 2. The 1998 flood

The 1998 flood, one of the worst in recent memory, is an example of how vulnerable Bangladesh is to flooding. The flood was the result of three factors: 1) heavy rainfall and snowmelt in India and Nepal, 2) a 20% increase in rainfall in Bangladesh in its major rivers (the Ganges and Brahmaputra) and more than double rainfall in the Meghna, and 3) elevated tides in the Bay of Bengal from the monsoon. The third factor did not contribute to runoff, but the elevated tides blocked outflow of the swollen rivers into the Bay of Bengal. The flood inundated close to 100,000 km2 of land (see Figure 5). More than 30 million Bangladeshis were displaced, with 20 million rendered homeless. Hundreds of people were killed directly by the floods, and several hundred thousand cases of diarrhea were confirmed.


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Figure 5. Areal coverage of the 1998 flood

• Sea level rise. Sea level rise will result in coastal flooding both under ambient conditions (given

the low elevations of the coast), and even more so in the event of storm surges. It will also indirectly cause riverine flooding by causing more backing up of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers along the delta.

• Increased intensity of cyclone winds and precipitation: As discussed in Section 3.2.2, IPCC concludes that there is evidence of a 5-10% increase in intensity (wind-speed) that would contribute to enhanced storm surges and coastal flooding. IPCC also projects a 20-20% increase in intensity of associated precipitation that would contribute to (rain-water) flooding both in the coast and inland as the cyclone makes landfall. These estimates however are for tropical cyclones in general and are not location specific. Assuming a positive correlation between sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone intensity, Ali (1996) calculated the effect of a repeat of the 1991 cyclone with a 2°C increase (which causes a 10% increase in wind speed) and a 0.3 m sea level rise. He estimated that this would result in a 1.5 m higher storm surge that would inundate 20% more land than the storm surge from the 1991 cyclone.

On the other hand, it is also possible – though considerably more uncertain - that drought could increase under climate change. Drought is a recurring problem in Bangladesh: 19 occurred between 1960 and 1991. Drought is typically caused when the monsoon rains, which normally produce 80% of Bangladesh’s annual precipitation, are significantly reduced. The southwest and northwest regions of the country are most vulnerable to drought. The estimates from the climate models do not yield a clear picture of how droughts will change. The estimated changes in precipitation are not significant. The models tend to show increased monsoon precipitation and annual precipitation, which could mean fewer droughts. But,


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a number of climate models estimate decreased annual precipitation, and the models tend to show reduced precipitation in the winter months. So the possibility of increased drought cannot be ruled out.

4.2 Coastal resources

This section addresses the risks from sea level rise to ecosystems as well as developed coastal resources. The certainty, timing, importance, and severity of impacts to the developed resources and ecosystems are about the same.

4.2.1 Ecosystems

One of the likely adverse impacts of climate change is the loss of the Sundarbans which are the coastal mangroves that straddle the coasts of western Bangladesh and neighboring India. The Sundarbans were formed by the deposition of materials from the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers. If the Sundarbans are lost, the habitat for several valuable species would also be lost. A 45 cm sea level rise would inundate 75% of the Sundarbans, and 67 cm sea level rise could inundate all of the system. Extrapolating from this information, Smith et al. (1998) calculated that a 25 cm sea level rise would result in a 40% mangrove loss. It is not certain whether there will be many adverse effects on the Sundarbans with a sea level rise of a few tens of centimeters, although salinity could increase substantially in many areas. Even if barriers to migration such as physical structures could be moved, it is unlikely that inland migration would make up for losses of mangroves from inundation.

The impacts of climate change on the Sundarbans and the opportunities and challenges faced in mainstreaming adaptation responses to ameliorate some of these impacts are discussed in greater detail later in this report in Section 8.

4.2.2 Coastal infrastructure

A 1 m rise in sea level would inundate 18% of Bangladesh’s total land, directly threatening 11% of the country’s population with inundation (based on current population distribution). In addition, the backwater and increased river flow from sea level rise could affect 60% of the country’s population (Karim and Rahman, 1995; Bijlsma, 1996). Nonetheless, such a rise in sea level is quite probable over many centuries (Church et al., 2001).

Inundation of such a large portion of the country could present major challenges in terms of loss of income and displaced populations. Huq et al. (1995) estimated that 11% of the country’s population lives in the area threatened by a 1 m sea level rise. The area around Dhaka is quite dense, but there are also pockets of population density in the Khulna region, which is most vulnerable to sea level rise. More people would be at risk from flooding from coastal storms. In addition, the major port of Mongla would be at risk, as would one-eighth of the country’s agricultural land and 8,000 km of roads (Huq et al., 1995).

At present, Bangladesh is too poor to be able to adapt to such a rise in sea level. The costs of protection would be substantial. Huq et al. (1995) estimate that 4,800 km of existing coastal defences would need upgrading and an additional 4,000 km of new defences would be needed. These protection measures would cost up to 1 billion US$ (Huq et al., 1995). The most vulnerable part of Bangladesh, the Khulna region, lies along the country’s southwestern coast. With the exception of the hilly Chittagong area and the northwestern part of the country, most of the country is less than 10 m above sea level. In the long run, sea level rise could displace tens of millions of people. To resettle 13 million people, Debove (2003) estimates it would cost US$ 13 billion. However since this is a gradual and a long-run problem, it is less urgent than other risks that may become acute over coming decades rather than toward the end of the century.


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4.3 Human health

The combination of higher temperatures and potential increases in summer precipitation could create the conditions for greater intensity or spread of many infectious diseases. However, risk in the human health sector is low relative to climate change induced risks in other sectors (such as water resources) mainly because of the higher uncertainty about many of the health outcomes. Increased risk to human health from increased flooding and cyclones seems most likely. Changes in infectious disease are less certain. The causes of outbreaks of infectious disease are quite complex and often do not have a simple relationship with increasing temperature or change in precipitation. It is not clear if the magnitude of the change in health risks resulting from climate change will be significant compared to current risks. It is also not clear if increased health risk will be apparent in the next few decades. On the whole climate change is expected to present increased risks to human health in Bangladesh, especially in light of the poor state of the country’s public health infrastructure. Life expectancy is only 61 years, and 61% of children are malnourished (World Bank, 2002). Perhaps more illustrative of this point, though, is the US$12 per person per year that the Bangladeshi government expends on health, well below the US$21 spent in low income countries in general (World Bank, 2002).

4.4 Agriculture

With over 35% of Bangladeshis suffering from malnourishment (Lal et al., 2001), the threat of increased hunger from reduction in agricultural production would suggest the inclusion of agriculture as one of the major vulnerabilities facing the country. Yet the IPCC (Lal et al., 2001) and other studies (e.g., Karim et al., 1996) show crop yields potentially increasing at a few degrees Celsius increase in temperature (see Tables 2.3 and 2.4). Beyond that, particularly as the CO2 fertilization saturates, yields could decrease. For example, Karim et al. (1996) estimated that rice yields would increase for about a 1.5°C increase combined with higher CO2 levels.

Results reported by Karim et al. (undated) for Bangladesh’s Country Study are consistent with Tables 3 and 4. They estimated that rice yields would decline under two GCM scenarios (GFDL and CCCM; the scenarios chapter did not give climate change estimates). They estimated increased yields for higher CO2 alone (580 and 660 ppmv), higher CO2 combined with a 2°C increase (but less of an increase than with no change in temperature), positive and negative changes in yields for a 580 ppmv of CO2 combined with a 4°C increase, and mostly increased yields for a 660 ppmv of CO2 combined with a 4°C increase. The marginal effect on yields of increasing temperatures (i.e., holding CO2 constant) was negative. Reducing precipitation had a further negative effect on yields.

Table 3. Change in rice yields in Asia under increments of temperature and CO2 level

Percent change in mean potential rice yield in Asia resulting from surface air temperature increment of

Model used and ambient CO2 levels

0°C +1°C +2°C +4°C

ORYZA1 Model

340 ppm 0.00 -7.25 -14.18 -31.00

1.5×CO2 23.31 12.29 5.60 -15.66

2×CO2 36.39 26.42 16.76 -6.99

SIMRIW Model 340 ppm 0.00 -4.58 -9.81 -26.15

1.5×CO2 12.99 7.81 1.89 -16.58

2×CO2 23.92 18.23 11.74 -8.54

Source: Matthews et al., 1995, as reproduced in Lal et al., 2001.


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Table 4. Percent change in Chittagong rice yields

Scenario Aus Anan Boro 2020: +0.7°C; 410 ppm CO2 +3 +2 +4 2050: +1.5°C; 510 ppm CO2 +9 +4 +11 Calculations are based on Karim et al., 1996.

There are some causes for concern about agriculture in Bangladesh. Over the course of the 21st

century and beyond, sea level rise will threaten hundreds of thousands if not more than a million hectares of agricultural land (Huq et al., 1995). For example, Islam et al. (undated) estimated that in eastern Bangladesh alone 14,000 tons of grain production would be lost to sea level rise in 2030 and 252,000 tons would be lost by 2075 (current agricultural production for the country is 30 million tons; WRI, 2001). Threatening the richest and most productive region of the country, sea level rise could have dramatic consequences for the Bangladeshi economy. A recent study estimates that a GDP decrease in the range of 28% to 57% could result from a 1m sea level rise (Debove, 2003).

Increased flooding from glacial melt, more intense monsoons, or more intense cyclones could also adversely affect agriculture in the near term by periodically inundating much agricultural land. Finally, Habibullah et al. (undated) estimated that several hundred thousand tons of grain production could be lost as a result of increased salinization from sea level rise.

4.5 Priority ranking of risks

The necessity of suitable responses to climate change not only relies on the degree of certainty associated with projections of various climate parameters (discussed in the previous section), but also in the significance of any resulting impacts from these changes on natural and social systems. Further, development planners often require a ranking of impacts, as opposed to a catalogue that is typical in many climate assessments, in order to make decisions with regard to how much they should invest in planning or mainstreaming particular response measures. Towards this goal, this section provides a subjective but reasonably transparent ranking of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for particular sectors in Bangladesh.

Vulnerability is a subjective concept that includes three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the affected system (Smit et al. 2001). The sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the affected system in particular depend on a range of socio-economic characteristics of the system. Several measures of social well-being such as income and income inequality, nutritional status, access to lifelines such as insurance and social security, and so on can affect baseline vulnerability to a range of climatic risks. Other factors meanwhile might be risk specific – for example proportion of rain-fed (as opposed to irrigated) agriculture might only be relevant for assessing vulnerability to drought. There are no universally accepted, objective means for “measuring” vulnerability. This section instead subjectively ranks biophysical vulnerability based on the following dimensions8:

• Certainty of impact. This factor uses available knowledge of climate change to assess the likelihood of impacts. Temperatures and sea levels are highly likely to rise and some impacts can be projected based on this. Changes in regional precipitation are less certain. This analysis uses the MAGICC/SCENGEN outputs to address relative certainty about changes in direction of mean precipitation. Changes in climate variability are uncertain. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Houghton et al., 2001) concluded that higher maximum and minimum

8 A comprehensive vulnerability assessment would have necessitated collection/aggregation of a range of

socio-economic variables at a sub-national scale, and was beyond the scope of this desk analysis.


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temperatures are very likely, more intense precipitation is very likely over most areas, and that more intense droughts, increased cyclone wind speeds and precipitation are likely over some areas.

• Timing. When are impacts in a particular sector likely to become severe or critical? This factor subjectively ranks impacts in terms of whether they are likely to manifest themselves in the first or the second half of this century.

• Severity of impact. How large could climate change impacts be? Essentially this factor considers the sensitivity of a sector to climate change.


A score of high, medium, or low for each factor is then assigned for each assessed sector. In ranking the risks from climate change, the scoring for all four factors was considered, but the most weight was placed on the certainty of impact. Impacts that are most certain, most severe, and most likely to become severe in the first half of the 21st century are ranked the highest. The results of this analysis are summarized in Table 59.

Table 5. Priority ranking of climate change risks for Bangladesh

Resource/ranking Certainty of impact

Timing of impact

Severity of impacta

Importance of resource

Water resources (flooding)

Medium-high

High High High

Coastal resources High Low High High

Human health Low-medium

Medium Medium-high High

Agriculture Medium Low-medium Low-medium High

a. Note scoring is relative; significance is a function of severity of impact and importance of resource.

Water resources are ranked as the greatest concern because flooding is already an important issue for the country. Increased flooding would no doubt be significant. Since small changes in runoff can substantially increase flooding, it is expected that increased flooding will be noticeable in the next few decades. The combination of increased glacial melt, which is highly likely, and increased monsoon intensity, which appears likely, makes increased flooding also likely.

Bangladesh’s coastal resources are ranked as next most vulnerable because the country exists mainly in a delta with most of its population and resources at low elevations and the Sundarbans are threatened by sea level rise. The Sundarbans are important because they are the largest mangrove system in the world and sea level rise could destroy or fundamentally change the entire ecosystem. Sea level is likely

9 This ranking is focussed primarily on biophysical risks and does not explicitly include a detailed analysis

of socioeconomic and demographic factors that might mediate vulnerability, which was beyond the scope of this study.


23

to rise; indeed it is more certain than increased flooding. However, the full impacts of sea level rise may not be realized for many decades, thus yielding it second place in the risk ranking.

Since increases in flooding and sea level rise are quite likely, these two risks are “clustered” together. The remaining risks, while also potentially important, have much lower likelihoods of being realized as a result of climate change.

Human health is ranked below these other sectors because of the significant uncertainty about many impacts, although it is likely that climate change will present increased health risks to Bangladesh. In particular, increased flooding could threaten human health through drowning and spread of disease.

Finally, agriculture is last because a number of studies estimate increased yields with small amounts of warming, but decreased yields with larger levels of warming. With the mixture of beneficial and initially adverse impacts, agriculture is consequently ranked as having less vulnerability than the other sectors.


Bangladesh receives over a billion dollars a year in donor aid, equivalent to about 2.5% of GNI. Figure 6 displays the distribution of this aid by development sector and by donor.

Figure 6. Development aid to Bangladesh (1998-2000)

Sources: OECD, World Bank

The following sections highlight the possible extent of climate risks to development investments in Bangladesh, and examine to what extent current and future climate risks are factored in development


24

strategies and plans, as well as individual development projects.10 Given the large quantity of strategies and projects, this analysis is limited to a selection. This selection was made in three ways (i) a direct request to all OECD DAC members to submit documentation of relevant national and sectoral strategies, as well as individual projects (ii) a direct search for some of the most important documents (including for instance national development plan/PRSP, submissions to the various UN conventions, country and sector strategies from multilateral donors like the World Bank and UNDP, and some of the larger projects in climate-sensitive sectors), and (iii) a pragmatic search (by availability) for further documentation that would be of interest to the present analysis (mainly in development databases and on donors’ external websites). Hence, the analysis is not comprehensive, and its conclusions are not necessarily valid for a wider array of development strategies and activities. Nevertheless, there is reason for some confidence that this limited set allows an identification of some common patterns and questions that might be relevant for development planning.


This section explores the extent to which development activities in Bangladesh are affected by climate risks, which gives an indication of the importance of climate considerations in development planning. The extent to which climate risks affect development activities can be gauged by examining the sectoral composition of the total aid portfolio. Development activities in sectors such as water resources, infectious diseases, or agriculture could clearly be affected by current climate variability and weather extremes, and consequently also by changing climatic conditions. At the other end of the spectrum, development activities relating to education, gender equality, and governance reform are much less directly affected by climatic circumstances.

In principle, the sectoral selection should include all development activities that might be designed differently depending on whether or not climate risks are taken into account. In that sense, the label “affected by climate risks” has two dimensions. It includes projects that are at risk themselves, such as an investment that could be destroyed by flooding. But it also includes projects that affect the vulnerability of other natural or human systems. For instance, new roads might be fully weatherproof from an engineering standpoint (even for climatic conditions in the far future), but they might also trigger new settlements in high-risk areas, or it might have a negative effect on the resilience of the natural environment, thus exposing the area to increased climate risks. These considerations should be taken into account in project design and implementation. Hence, these projects are also affected by climate risks. A comprehensive evaluation of the extent to which development activities are affected by climate change would require detailed assessments of all relevant development projects as well as analysis of site specific climate change impacts, which was beyond the scope of this analysis. This study instead assesses activities affected by climate risks on the basis of CRS purpose codes (see Appendix B, which identifies “the specific area of the recipient’s economic or social structure which the transfer is intended to foster”)11, 12.

10 The phrase “climate risk” or “climate-related risk” is used here for all risks that are related to climatic

circumstances, including weather phenomena and climate variability on various timescales. In the case of Bangladesh, these risks include the effects of seasonal climate anomalies (like a dry winter or heavy monsoon), extreme weather events, floods and droughts, as well as trends therein due to climate change, as well as sea level rise. “Current climate risks” refer to climate risks under current climatic conditions, and “future climate risks” to climate risks under future climatic conditions, including climate change.

11 Each activity can be assigned only one such code; projects spanning several sectors are listed under a multi-sector code, or in the sector corresponding to the largest component.

12 The OECD study “Aid Activities Targeting the Objectives of the Rio Conventions, 1998-2000” provides a similar, but much more extensive database analysis. It aimed to identify the commitments of ODA that targeted to objectives of the Rio Conventions. For this purpose, a selection was made of those projects in


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Clearly, any classification that is based solely on sectors suffers from oversimplification. In reality, there is a wide spectrum of exposure to climate risks even within particular sectors. For instance, rain-fed agriculture projects might be much more vulnerable than projects in areas with reliable irrigation. At the same time, the irrigation systems themselves may also be at risk, further complicating the picture. Similarly, most education projects would hardly be affected by climatic circumstances, but school buildings in flood-prone areas might well be at risk. Without an in-depth examination of risks to individual projects, it is impossible to capture such differences. Hence, the sectoral classification only provides a rough first sense about the share of development activities that might be affected by climate risks.

To capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of development activities affected by climate change was calculated in two ways: a rather broad selection, and a more restrictive one. The first selection (high estimate) includes projects dealing with infectious diseases, water supply and sanitation, transport infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, renewable energy and hydropower13, tourism, urban and rural development, environmental protection, food security, and emergency assistance. The second selection (low estimate) excludes projects related to transport and storage. In many countries, these projects make up a relatively large share of the development portfolio, simply due to the large size of individual investments (contrary to investments in softer sectors such as environment, education and health). At the same time, infrastructure projects are usually designed on the basis of detailed engineering studies, which should include attention at least to current climate risks to the project.14 Moreover, the second selection excludes food aid and emergency assistance projects. Except for disaster mitigation components (generally a very minor portion of emergency aid), these activities are generally responsive and planned at short notice. The treatment of risks is thus very different from well-planned projects intended to have long-term development benefits. Together, the first and the second selection give an indication of the range of the share of climate-affected development activities.

In addition, the share of emergency-related activities was calculated. This category includes emergency response and disaster mitigation projects, as well as flood control. The size of this selection gives an indication of the development efforts that are spent on dealing with natural hazards, including, often prominently, climate and weather related disasters.

The implications of this classification should not be overstated. If an activity falls in the “climate-affected” basket, which does not mean that it would always need to be redesigned in the light of climate change or even that one would be able to quantify the extent of current and future climate risks. Instead, the only implication is that climate risks could well be a factor to consider among many other factors to be taken into account in the design of development activities. In some cases, this factor could be marginal. In others, it may well be substantial. In any case, these activities would benefit from a consideration of these risks in their design phase. Hence, one would expect to see some attention being paid to them in project documents, and related sector strategies or parts of national development plans.

the CRS database that targeted the Conventions as either their “principal objective”, or “significant objective”.

13 Traditional power plants are not included. Despite their long lifetime, these facilities are so localized (contrary to, e.g., roads and other transport infrastructure) that climate risks will generally be more limited. Due to the generally large investments involved in such plants, they could have a relatively large influence on the sample, not in proportion with the level of risk involved.

14 Note however, that they often lack attention to trends in climate records, and do not take into account indirect risks of infrastructure projects on the vulnerability of natural and human systems.


26

Figures 7 and 8 show the results of these selections, for the three years 1998, 1999, and 200015.

Figure 7. Share of aid amounts in activities affected by climate risk in Bangladesh (1998-2000)

dark: affected by climate risks

(high estimate)

53%47%


(low estimate)

22%

78%

dark: emergency activities

7%

93%

Figure 8. Share (by number) in activities affected by climate risk in Bangladesh (1998-2000)


(high estimate)

37%63

%


(low estimate)

22%

78%


9%

91%

15 The three-year sample is intended to even out year-to-year variability in donor commitments. At the time

of writing, 2000 was the most recent year for which final CRS data were available. Note that coverage of the CRS is not yet complete: coverage ratios were 83% in 1998, 90% in 1999, and 95% in 2000. Coverage ratios of less than 100% mean that not all ODA/OA activities have been reported in the CRS. For example, data on technical co-operation are missing for Germany and Portugal (except since 1999), and partly missing for France and Japan. Some aid extending agencies of the United States prior to 1999 do not report their activities to the CRS. Greece, Luxembourg and New Zealand do not report to the CRS. Ireland has started to report in 2000. Data are complete on loans by the World Bank, the regional banks (the Inter-American Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the African Development Bank) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development. For the Commission of the European Community, the data cover grant commitments by the European Development Fund, but are missing for grants financed from the Commission budget and loans by the European Investment Bank (EIB). For the United Nations, the data cover the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) since 2000, and a significant proportion of aid activities of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) for 1999. No data are yet available on aid extended through other United Nations agencies. Note also that total aid commitments in the CRS are not directly comparable to the total ODA figures, which exclude most loans.


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In monetary terms, between about one-fifth and half of all development activities in Bangladesh could be affected by climate change. By number of projects, the shares are somewhat lower; between a one-fifth and half of the activities would be affected.16 Bangladesh’s extremely high exposure to natural hazards, particularly floods, is clearly reflected in the large share of emergency projects (about 7% of the amount and 9% of the number of development activities).

In addition to providing insight on the sensitivity of development activities in Bangladesh as a whole, the classification also gives a sense of the relative exposure of various donors. These results are listed in Tables 6 and 7 (again in the years 1998, 1999, and 2000).

Table 6. Shares (by amount) of CRS activities for top-five donors in Bangladesh (1998-2000)

All activities Affected activities

(high estimate) Affected activities


Donor Amount % Donor Amount % Donor Amount % Donor Amount %


IDA 1698 32% IDA 888 32% AsDF 326 28% IDA 200 52%

AS. D B 917 17% AsDF 623 22% UK 317 28% AsDF 102 26%

UK 699 13% UK 436 16% Denmark 135 12% UK 34 9%

Japan 671 13% Denmark 239 9% IDA 132 11% Japan 22 6%

USA 341 6% USA 203 7% Japan 75 7% Germany 10 3%

Table 7. Shares (by number) of CRS activities for top-five donors in Bangladesh (1998-2000)

All activities Affected activities

(high estimate) Affected activities


Donor Number % Donor Number % Donor Number % Donor Number %


UK 257 21% UK 126 28% UK 77 28% UK 37 34%

Norway 162 13% Netherl. 54 12% Netherl. 41 15% Switzerl. 13 12%

Netherl. 116 9% Denmark 37 8% Denmark 20 7% Norway 11 10%

Australia 74 6% Australia 27 6% Australia 20 7% Netherl. 8 7%

Germany 72 6% Norway 26 6% Norway 16 6% Germany 6 6%

Given the substantial share of development activities in Bangladesh that could be affected by

climate risks, and the high costs of natural hazards, one would assume that these risks are reflected in development plans and a large share of development projects. The following sections examine the extent to which this is the case.

16 Note that the number of activities gives a less straightforward indication than the dollar amounts. First of

all, activities are listed in the CRS in each year when a transfer of aid has occurred. Hence, when a donor disburses a particular project in three tranches, that project counts three times in the three-year sample. If the financing for a similar three-year project is transferred entirely in the first year, it only counts once. Secondly, the CRS contains a lot of non-activities, including items like “administrative costs of donors”. Moreover, some bilateral donors list individual consultant assignments as separate development activities. In most cases, such transactions will fall outside of the “climate-affected” category. Hence, the share of climate-affected activities relative to the total number of activities (which is diluted by these non-items) is lower. On the other hand, the shares by total amount tend to be dominated by structural investments (which tend to be more costly than projects in sectors such as health, education, or environmental management).


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5.2 Climate risk in selected donor strategies

As early as 1996, the World Bank’s 2020 Long-run Perspective Study for Bangladesh (1996) raised the issue of climate change: “although the impacts of global warming are still far from precisely predictable, the prospect is sufficiently likely and alarming to warrant precautionary action at the national as well as at the international level.” Particularly the potential economic impacts of sea-level rise (13% of GDP) gave rise to the conclusion that further work was needed: “The seriousness of the problem warrants strenuous research efforts to understand various aspects of the problem and devise remedies for future generations.” It advocated a dual response – international diplomacy in support of global mitigation, and national planning for adaptation.

The World Bank responded to this by sponsoring the Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development study (2000), which analyzed the possible impacts of climate change, identified physical and institutional adaptation options, and reviewed a number of development projects (see below) and the National Water Management Plan. Its main aim was to mainstream adaptation in the regular development strategies and operations in Bangladesh.

Three years later (in 2003), it appears that the results have partly been embraced in some sectors (see Huq, 2002, and Rahman and Alam, 2003). When provided with suitably presented information, sectoral policy makers, planners, and managers have indeed mainstreamed climate change into their regular work. For instance, recommendations of the World Bank study have been incorporated in coastal zone management programs and adopted in the preparation of (cyclone) disaster preparedness plans and a new 25-year water sector plan (under development). In agriculture, the results were deemed relevant to research programs (particularly for drought and saline tolerant rice varieties), but not for agricultural extension. Stakeholders in public health showed interest in the issue, although they did not see any short-term implications for their day-to-day decisions.

While sectoral planners showed a fair degree of interest, the report was less successful in convincing high level policy makers and central ministries like Finance and Planning of the importance of taking climate change into account as an integral part of sustainable development planning (Huq, 2002). Surprisingly, this same lack of follow-up at higher levels is also reflected in the lack of attention to climate change in the World Bank’s own Country Assistance Strategy, a high level policy document that was published in 2001 - a year after the Bank’s study on Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Bangladesh. While ample attention is paid to natural hazards, the strategy only mentions climate change briefly, in the context of environmental problems, such as widespread resource depletion, ecological degradation, urban and industrial pollution - and natural disasters.

A similar pattern arises in most of the other donors’ strategies for Bangladesh17: ample attention is paid to the risk of natural hazards, and many efforts are made to reduce Bangladesh’s vulnerability to those risks, but climate change is not mentioned, or receives very little consideration. The European Commission has recently developed a climate change strategy for support to partner countries (European Commission 2003). The overall objective of this strategy is to assist partner countries in meeting challenges posed by climate change through mainstreaming climate concerns into EU development co-operation. The strategy consists of four strategic priorities: (i) raising the policy profile of climate change,

17 Including UNDP/UNPF, DFID, CIDA, JICA Environment Profile. The ADB strategy lists climate change

as a priority environmental theme in its policy matrix, but offers no further analysis of its crosscutting implications.


29

(ii) support for adaptation, (iii) support for mitigation, and (iv) capacity development, which are translated into a proposed action plan18.

IFAD’s Country Strategic Opportunities Paper also neglects climate change as a risk factor, but provides an interesting perspective on vulnerability to natural hazards and development strategies in Bangladesh. The paper finds a disconnection between “micro success” and “macro stagnation”. It suggests that poverty reduction strategies in Bangladesh have been very successful in increasing resilience, demonstrated by impressive gains in the areas of food production, population control, health education, and in building up the institutional capacities of the poor. The way in which Bangladesh was able to manage the devastating 1998 floods is another example of this resilience, which is characterized by people’s own efforts as well as government initiatives in safety net provisioning and rural infrastructure development. However, the paper contrasts this success from the perspective of the “economics of resilience” with the failure of the “economics of graduation”. In other words while the loss of life and livelihoods from disasters have been considerably reduced, there remains a lack of real opportunities for the poor to embark on a path of progressive economic upliftment. The lack of such long-term opportunities for social upliftment is also likely to limit improvement in coping or adaptive capacity, and thereby constrain the success of efforts to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Another perspective on climate change risks in Bangladesh is provided in a BMZ study on climate change and conflict (Brauch, 2002). Its case study on Bangladesh showed that this country has already been a primary victim of extreme weather events (cyclones, floods and droughts) that forced people to migrate. The increase in environmental stress due to climate change may further raise the conflict potential and might eventually lead to international tensions and regional instability: “In Bangladesh the struggle for survival against the impacts of global environmental change has been real for decades. Without more intensive efforts to address the causes at their roots a major human catastrophe may be possible that will not only affect the neighboring states (India, Myanmar) but the OECD countries as well.” No attention to these trans-boundary risks however was reflected in any of the donor strategies.

18 This initiative however is too recent at the time of writing this report to assess its impact on in-country

development co-operation policies of the EU.


30

Table 8. Climate change implications on select development projects in Bangladesh

Coa

stal

res

ourc

es

D

rain

age

cong

estio

n

Fre

sh w

ater

M

orph

olog

ic d

ynam

ics

Fre

sh w

ater

res

ourc

es

D

rain

age

cong

estio

n

Fre

sh w

ater

M

orph

olog

ic d

ynam

ics

Agr

icul

ture

Pub

lic h

ealth

Eco

syst

ems/

biod

iver

sity

Small Scale Water Resources Development Sector Project (SSWRDSP) Command-area Development Project (CADP) Khulna-Jessore Deainage Rehabilitation Project (KDRP) Sundarbans Biodiversity Project (SBCP) Coastal Greenbelt Project (CGP) Forestry Sector Project (FSP) Agricultural Research Management Project (ARMP) Proposed Coastal Zone Development Program (CZDP) Forestry Resources Management Project (FRMP) Fourth Fisheries Project (FFP) 1 Gorai River Restoration Project Third Inland Water Transport Project River Bank Protection Project (RBPP) Water Sector Improvement Project (WSIP) Sustainable Environment Management Program ** Third Water Supply and Sanitation Project ** National Water Management Plan (NWMP)

Key: Characteristics of project: Impact of climate change, in target sector of project. Depending on proposed activities in project, incorporation of adaptations can be relatively easy or difficult. This is indicated as follows:

Target sector in project

Impact on target sector affecting success of project. No activities planned on issue. Adaptation possible only as additional activities.

Target issue in Project: activities planned

Impact on target issue. No adaptations considered. However, as a target issue of project, adaptation can be part of activities, and project can help reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Vulnerability to CC made explicit, adaptations is part of activities.

The project is vulnerable to climate change, however the proposed activities allow for adaptation. Opportunities to reduce vulnerability exist.

Proposed activities make project very promising to reduce vulnerability to climate change.


5.3 Attention to climate risks in selected development programs and projects

The World Bank report Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development (2000) includes a review of sixteen development activities (mainly by the ADB and the World Bank, and also by the Netherlands and DFID) in the light of adaptation to climate change. This review considered two aspects: vulnerability of the projects themselves, as well as opportunities to reduce Bangladesh’s vulnerability in a broader sense. The report’s main finding was that most of the activities reviewed do not consider climate change impacts or adaptation to such impacts (see Table 8).

The current review, three years later, comes to a more nuanced conclusion. On the one hand it is true that little explicit attention is paid to climate change risks in most project documents19, even for 19 Note that this was a desk review; it could be that attention is not reflected in the documents, but still

incorporated in the process of technical planning.


31

projects in sectors that are highly vulnerable, such as water management or coastal biodiversity (see Appendix B for an analysis of specific projects). However, at the same time – as discussed in greater detail in Sections 7 and 8 - many projects contribute directly or indirectly to a reduction in vulnerability, and most of them do take into account the natural hazards affecting Bangladesh. Only a few, such as the GEF/UNDP Coastal and Wetland Biodiversity Management at Cox's Bazar and Hakaluki Haor (2000-2007), note the potential effect of sea level rise. UNDP’s Comprehensive Disaster Management Program (CDMP) lists climate change as a serious component of Bangladesh’s vulnerability to natural hazards, to be integrated in the program’s disaster risk reduction strategies. It is difficult to gauge the extent to which climate change considerations would have affected the design of the other projects.

At the same time, Huq (2002) and Rahman and Alam (2003) note that several ongoing development projects, such as the World Bank’s coastal zone management project, and the GEF/ADB Biodiversity Conservation in the Sunderbans Reserve forest project, planned to incorporate considerations from the World Bank climate change study. However such developments, occurring during the project lifetime, are not reflected in the initial project documents.

One of the projects that was reviewed, the GEF/World Bank/DFID Aquatic Biodiversity Project, highlights the negative impacts of flood protection measures on inland open-water fisheries and biodiversity. Such findings re-emphasize the need to adopt cross-sectoral and comprehensive approaches to hazard risk management and sustainable development, particularly in the face of the increasing risks due to climate change.


Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has embarked upon a series of development plans, the latest being the Fifth Five Year Plan (FiFYP) that lays out development objectives and investments ─ both in public as well as private sectors ─ for the Plan period 1997-2002 (MOP, 1997). The major development objectives set out by the FiFYP include sustained economic growth, equity, poverty alleviation, human capability development, and sound environmental management. Bangladesh is also a signatory to a number of multilateral environmental agreements, and has a number of national level environmental and sectoral plans that intersect with responses that might be required to manage climate variability and long term climate change.

6.1 Climate policies and national communications to international environmental agreements

Although Bangladesh is significantly impacted by current climate variability, and is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, there is no national policy in place yet to comprehensively address such risks. The need for a National Policy on Climate Change has been expressed time and again by the civil society of the country since early 1990s. In a recently held National Dialogue on Water and Climate Change, the formulation of a Climate Change Policy for the country was highly recommended. Work is currently underway to develop the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) for Bangladesh, although it is too early to assess whether the NAPA will lead to a comprehensive national policy that is endorsed and implemented by the government.

Bangladesh is a party to various international environmental conventions, including the UNFCCC, UNCCD, UNCBD and the RAMSAR Convention on Wetlands. Bangladesh submitted its first National Communications to the UNFCCC in late 2002. No copy was yet available for review. Bangladesh has also submitted two reports (in 2001 and 2002) to the UNCCD which do not discuss climate change. With regard to UNCBD, Bangladesh has not yet submitted a national biodiversity strategy and action plan (NBSAP). A report on alien species does not touch upon climate related issues. Bangladesh has also produced a National Planning Tool for the implementation of the Ramsar Convention on wetlands that


32

draws linkages between Ramsar and biodiversity issues, but not with climate change concerns in the context of coastal wetlands. Similarly, the country’s documentation for the World Summit on Sustainable Development only discusses climate change as a stand-alone air quality issue, rather than a cross-cutting concern affecting many aspects of sustainable development.

6.2 Interim poverty reduction strategy paper (I-PRSP)

Bangladesh’s I-PRSP recognizes the direct links between poverty and vulnerability to natural hazards: “Given the risk and vulnerability to natural hazards that are likely to continue as a serious threat to national development efforts, macro level policies for disaster risk reduction, mitigation and management must be adopted in view of alleviating disaster-induced poverty”. It notes that the incidence of disasters is likely to increase rather than decrease, particularly due to global climate change. The I-PRSP proposes a comprehensive and anticipatory approach to reduce Bangladesh’s vulnerability: “… to reduce vulnerability to natural, environmental and human induced hazards through community empowerment and integration of sustainable risk management initiatives in all development programs and projects. This vision would be achieved by a multi-hazard and multi-agency approach to address vulnerability, risk assessment and mitigation that include prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. The vision considers a transition from a response and relief focus to vulnerability and risk reduction approach in disaster management.”

In contrast to the strong emphasis on climate change in the discussion of Bangladesh’s disaster trends, climate change is not mentioned in the context of planning vulnerability reduction measures (except for a proposal for further research on impacts). Outside of the section on natural hazards, the PRSP does not contain any references to climate change. Nevertheless, many of the proposed measures to reduce current vulnerability will also contribute to improved adaptation to climate change. For instance, the medium-term agenda for water management includes many items that will reduce climate vulnerability, including the formulation of national policies for water management, forestry, agriculture, fisheries and environment, but also regional and local level activities, ranging from engineering solutions and afforestation to community-level natural resources management arrangements. Some of these items would benefit from an explicit consideration of climate change. Similarly, in the context of agriculture policy, the PRSP proposes specific attention for improved agricultural technologies and practices in flood- and drought-prone areas, but does not mention climate change considerations, which would need to be taken into account in planning and implementation of such measures.

6.3 Other national policies of relevance to climate change

Bangladesh has put in place a number of sectoral policies and plans (particularly during the 1990s) that bear upon its ability to cope with current climate risks, and to some extent the additional risks posed by climate change. The following paragraphs discuss some of the most relevant policies.

The National Water Policy (NWP) announced in 1999 is the first comprehensive look at short, medium and long-term perspectives for water resources in Bangladesh. The NWP was followed by the National Water Management Plan (NWMP) in 2001 that looks at implementation and investment responses to address the critical priorities identified in the NWP. NWMP is currently being evaluated by a Parliamentary Committee. It is expected that the Plan will be accepted by the National Parliament in 2003 and its recommendations be endorsed by the National Water Council, the latter being the highest body to provide guidance to all water sector activities.

Given the criticality of climate change impacts on water resources (see Section 4.1), it is noteworthy that NWP does not explicitly mention this issue. NWMP however recognizes climate change as one of the factors determining future water supply and demand. The summary section on agriculture and water management states that “in undertaking these works the potential impacts of climate change and sea-


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level rise will be factored in”. In relation to the coastal zone, the draft NWMP states, “…sea level rise due to global warming continued sedimentation of the rivers and flood plains and subsidence of the Ganges basin are all factors that will affect sea levels with respect to land levels. Each is difficult to predict with certainty, as reflected in the breadth of estimates of net sea level rise of 4.5~23 cm in 2025 and 6.5~44 cm by 2050”. On coastal zones the NWMP further states “…the situation is further complicated by an observed trend of increased tidal amplitude associated with reduction of tidal flows due to empolderment in the South West Region. By 1995, the tidal range had increased to about 3.0 m from about 1.8 m in 1960. It is improbable that a new equilibrium has been reached, and the tidal range is expected to continue to increase. The combined effect of both sea level rise and increased tidal range will have a substantial impact over much of the coastal area. Furthermore, it has been estimated that the rise in sea level will result in backwater effects detectable as far inland as Faridpur and the Haor Basins of the North East”. There is thus considerable internalization of climate change risks within this document which is expected to guide the implementation of the National Water Policy.

There are also a number of aspects of both NWP and NWMP that, while not mentioning climate change explicitly, do nevertheless bear upon adaptation to climate change. Some examples of priorities that are synergistic with adaptation responses to climate change include: (i) the recommendation in NWP to develop “early warning and flood-proofing systems to manage the (alternating cycles) of flood and drought” – as discussed in Section 4.1 flood risks and possibly drought risk are expected to increase under climate change; (ii) the NWP recommendation for “comprehensive development and management of the main rivers through a system of barrages”, which the NWMP has followed up with a plan to construct a barrage on the Ganges to help sustain dry season flows and regulate monsoon flooding. This would not only be synergistic with adaptation of water resources, but may also contribute to reducing salinity concerns in the Sundarbans during the dry seasons and enhance their resilience under climate change and sea level rise; (iii) emphasis within the NWP on regional co-operation among co-riparian countries. This again is a good adaptation response: better co-ordination with India has the potential to partially offset the enhanced vulnerability of wet and dry season flows in Bangladesh under climate change.

Bangladesh’s National Environmental Management Action Plan (NEMAP) which was published in 1995 does not explicitly discuss climate change. NEMAP however does add a cautionary note on the environmental damages that may result from structural flood control measures – which might highlight some conflicts with structural adaptation responses (such as the construction of barrages) highlighted under the NWP and NWMP, and other environmental consequences such as migration and breeding of fish-stock. Similar to NEMAP, the National Land Use Policy (NLUP) does not make direct reference to climate change. NLUP however aims to bring 25% of the land under forest cover and highlights mangrove plantations in char lands, and coastal green belts more generally as a priority. It also advocates conservation of existing forest lands, including the Sundarbans. These priorities of NLUP are also echoed the National Forest Policy (NFoP) that was initially formulated in 1979 and revised in 1994 – although the goal of NFoP is to bring 20% (as opposed to 25% in NLUP) of the total land under forest cover. Forest conservation priorities in NFoP and NLUP could help reduce some of the other stresses on ecosystems such as the Sundarbans, thereby increasing their resilience to the impacts of climate change. Further, policies such as the development of coastal green belts would be a good “no-regrets” adaptation response to reduce the vulnerability of the coastline to cyclones and storm surges, both under current conditions as well as under climate change. NFoP however also advocates Eco-tourism as a forestry related activity – within the context of the Sundarbans this has the potential to add to the stresses on the fragile ecosystem and could therefore lower its resilience. A similar concern comes up within the context of the National Tourism Policy (NTP) that was announced in 1992. NTP has developed a Master Tourism Plan (MTP) for the Sundarbans, and also highlights three coastal regions for tourism development, including Khulna which is the most vulnerable region in Bangladesh to sea level rise.


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The following sections discuss in depth policy responses and challenges faced in mainstreaming them with regard to impacts of climate change on two critical systems: coastal flooding and the coastal mangrove forests of the Sundarbans.

7. Climate change and coastal flooding

Bangladesh has a 700 km long coastline that consists of a vast network of river systems draining the huge flow of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system. The river discharge on the Bangladesh coastline is heavily laden with sediments, both suspended and bed-load, giving rise to a highly dynamic estuary. The low topography gives rise to a strong backwater effect, and there is considerable seasonal variation in the interaction between the brackish and freshwater – with freshwater dominating during the monsoon and the saline front penetrating further inland during the dry season.

The coastal zone is home to 35 million people – over a quarter of the national population. The population density is 738/km2. Current estimates project the coastal population to reach 40-50 million by 2050. Table 9 provides a listing of the administrative districts in the coastal zone along with their key characteristics.

Table 9. Key characteristics of the districts in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

Area Population Eligibility Criteria for Coastal Zone No. Name of District Km2 (‘000) Effect of

Salinity Tidal Fluctuation

Cyclone risk

1 Bagerhat 3,959 1,515,815 √ √ 2 Barguna 1,832 837,955 √ √ √ 3 Barisal 2,791 2,330,960 √ √ 4 Bhola 3,403 1,676,600 √ √ √ 5 Chandpur 1,704 2,210,162 √ 6 Chittagong 5,283 6,545,078 √ √ √ 7 Cox’s Bazar 2,492 1,757,321 √ √ √ 8 Feni 928 1,196,219 √ √ √ 9 Gopalganj 1,490 1,132,046 √ √ 10 Jessore 2,567 2,440,693 √ √ 11 Jhalokathi 758 696,055 √ √ 12 Khulna 4,395 2,334,285 √ √ 13 Laksmipur 1,458 1,479,371 √ √ √ 14 Narail 990 689,021 √ √ 15 Noakhali 3,601 2,533,394 √ √ √ 16 Patuakhali 3,205 1,444,340 √ √ √ 17 Pirojpur 1,308 1,126,525 √ √ 18 Satkhira 3,858 1,843,194 √ √ 19 Shariatpur 1,181 1,057,181 √ Total 47,203 34,846,215

Coastal lands are used for agriculture and livestock grazing throughout the year. Fishing is also a major activity in the coastal zones, while large scale industrial activity has been constrained by the limited availability of saline-free process water. The eastern coastal plains are also used for salt production, and a few coastal islands are used for drying of fish. Since the 1980s coastal lands have also been extensively brought under shrimp cultivation – primarily in response to the high salinity. Although the export oriented shrimp industry has given a boost to the national economy, it has encouraged farmers to artificially hold brackish water to boost shrimp production leading to adverse environmental and social effects, leading to government controls on such activity. Coastal zones are also offering potential for exploration of natural gas and other energy sources. Another emerging industry is tourism, with major plans underway to boost the infrastructure in coastal zones to promote both international and domestic tourism.


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7.1 Climate change impacts on coastal flooding

The low lying costal zone in Bangladesh is located between the extensive drainage network of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system on one side, and tidal and cyclonic activity from the Bay of Bengal on the other. Since the 1960s a series of costal embankments has been constructed to protect low lying lands from tidal inundation and salinity penetration. Many of these lands have now become high productivity agricultural areas and are valued considerably more than lands outside the embankments. The same coastal embankments paradoxically also tend to block efficient drainage of freshwater on the other (land) side at times of excess rainfall and riverine flooding.

The situation is complicated further under climate change. As detailed in Section 4.1 several factors including enhanced glacier melt in the Himalayas, the possibility of enhanced monsoon precipitation, and the possibility of an increase in intensity of cyclones are likely to contribute to increased (freshwater) flood risk that could be further exacerbated in areas with coastal embankments. At the same time, sea level rise and potentially higher storm surges would result in over-topping of saline water behind the embankments. In other words, climate change could be a double whammy for coastal flooding, particularly in areas that are currently protected by embankments and therefore highly valued and home to productive economic activity. Outside the embankment areas, low lying lands will continue to be inundated in any case. But the magnitude and aerial coverage of inundation will likely be increased under climate change. Increased sea levels under climate change would also result in saline intrusion further upstream into the river system, which would increase the backwater effect. The whole process is likely to lead to enhanced sedimentation and gradually declining river gradients, increased drainage congestion and increased flood risks for coastal areas (Huq et al. 1996). Drainage congestion eventually increases the level of the floodplain, while the land inside the embankments remains unchanged. This in-turn increases the risk of overtopping of the crest height of the embankments, which would severely affect the productivity of more valuable land within the embankments. Coastal embankments themselves are virtually sitting on the floodplains of a delta, thereby not only interrupting the processes of delta formation, but also affecting the sedimentation process. Increased volume of water in the GBM river system during the monsoon that is projected under climate change would exert higher pressure on the erosion of vulnerable areas, which might increase coastal land erosion.

7.2 Adaptation options available for management of coastal flooding

Bangladesh is already vulnerable to coastal flooding, and this vulnerability will increase under climate change due to a combination of factors. Bangladesh already employs coastal embankment towards management of coastal flooding, particularly when it is caused by high tides and storm surges. However, inadequate drainage infrastructure along an embankment can be counter-productive, and could interact with several aspects of climate change to produce a cascade of adverse consequences that could in fact enhance the vulnerability of the coastal areas in Bangladesh.

A first order adaptation to climate change would therefore to build or maintain appropriate drainage infrastructure along coastal embankments. In fact flow regulators had already been incorporated in the design of existing embankments. However, in many cases the required number of regulators was not built as per design. In other cases, even if the regulators were built, they lacked proper maintenance and consequently failed to serve their intended purpose. The failure of regulators in polder20 number 24, located in the western coastal region, caused saline flooding for over a decade. It caused severe damage to the agro-ecology within the embankment, and resulted in widespread dislocation of population. Therefore building of new drainage regulators along coastal embankments needs to be complemented by an assessment of the need for refurbishing existing regulators, followed by their periodic monitoring and

20 A polder is a piece of land below sea level that is surrounded by a dyke.


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maintenance. The participation of local communities would be critical for the effective monitoring and maintenance of coastal embankments and flow regulators. The National Water Policy (MOWR 1999) has given a clear mandate for the formation of associations of water users and water managers, and the participation of these local level organizations at all levels of planning and execution of projects, and more importantly, allowing them to take part in operations and maintenance activities.

While coastal embankments have flow regulators (albeit poorly maintained), the coastal roads network in Bangladesh generally lacks appropriate drainage infrastructure, a factor which is believed to have contributed to the flood of 2000 (Tutu 2001). Most of the newly built feeder roads along the coastal areas, building of which did not usually require rigorous planning and design and was done with local-level inputs, have completely ignored the necessity of having drainage infrastructure such as culverts, bridges and regulators. Construction of these drainage infrastructure offer a good adaptation option that would certainly reduce flood related vulnerability.

Another family of physical adaptation measures could revolve around enhancing the drainage and/or conveyance capacity of the coastal rivers. This could involve excavation/dredging of silting rivers to unclog their waterways. Controlled flooding to enhance sedimentation and thereby raise the floodplain further upstream is another adaptation measure that could enhance drainage by increasing the flow gradient. This measure has already been tested under the Khulna-Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project (EGIS 1998). Raising of the floodplain upstream helped drain the excess water, which in turn reduced flood vulnerability. Post project appraisals have concluded that this ‘tidal basin’concept to be acceptable to the local population.

Another adaptation measure would involve the use of lifting pumps to take out excessive water from the flood affected areas may be considered as a physical adaptation. Since this involves high costs, it is considered only to save high value properties, infrastructure, urban centers and industrial zones. Pumps can also be used for the purpose of desalinization of high value agricultural lands. Repeated flushing of saline affected lands by freshwater and simultaneous disposal of excessive water can reduce soil salinity. Following the high intensity cyclonic event of 1991, Ganoshashthokendra (an NGO) tried such a measure to desalinize few hectares of land inside the embankment in Maheskhali Island (Haider, 1992). However, the cost of entire operation was high, thereby reducing its financial viability. The same NGO however also desalinized almost all the salinity affected tube wells after the 1991 cyclone. The operation was quickly completed and allowed people to have fresh potable water. Pumping option as an adaptation may, therefore, be considered to solve certain specific problems (such as salinization of potable water reservoirs) that are expected to occur under climate change.

Finally, the ongoing trend towards more effective disaster early warning and response in Bangladesh is also a viable adaptation strategy for flooding that might result from enhanced cyclone intensity that is projected under climate change. The directives given by the Standing Order on Disasters (DMB, 1999) in particular may be considered as elements of institutional adaptation. Continuous monitoring of the formation of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal involving satellite-based technology; monitoring the gradual development and track of imminent cyclone; issuance of cyclone warning well ahead of time for the people to take precautionary measures; evacuation from homesteads and relocation in multi-purpose cyclone shelters and concrete buildings ─ all may be considered as highly useful and proven adaptation strategies. Already such measures have allowed thousands of coastal people to successfully avoid loss of lives during two high intensity cyclonic events: one occurring in 1994 and the other in 1997 (Ahmed, 2000).


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7.3 Steps considered recently for the reduction of flood related vulnerability

In response to the frequent problems associated with coastal flooding, both inside the embankments and outside, the Government of Bangladesh has undertaken measures to: (a) increase discharge capacity of the coastal rivers; and (b) deal with hindrances that do not allow passage of floodwaters from inside coastal embankments. A number of projects have already been completed and several more are currently underway. Some of these projects are described below. These projects are not explicitly designed to address vulnerability of climate change. They would only help achieve the objective of lowering present vulnerability, although lessons learnt from these projects would encourage the government and local communities to consider future similar adaptations to address climate change related additional vulnerability.

7.3.1 Khulna-Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project (KJDRP)

Funded by the Asian Development Bank, the KJDRP was implemented between 1995 and 2000 under the aegis of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). The principal objective of the project was to achieve the national goal of poverty reduction by reducing drainage congestion of the rivers and channels in the coastal districts of Khulna and Jessore; increasing agricultural production; and creating on-farm employment. The project aimed at achieving a number of specific objectives: (i) to rehabilitate existing drainage infrastructure towards reducing drainage congestion and protecting the area from tidal and seasonal flooding; (ii) to provide support for the expansion of agricultural extension services in order to boost on-farm activities within the project area; and (iii) to facilitate improvement of culture fisheries management in various embankments in the project area.

KJDRP has been used as a test case for the implementation of a project through a participatory approach, a paradigm shift from the traditional top-down approach. The project activities involved the following:

• Dredging of rivers (a total of 30 kilometers have been dredged);

• Rehabilitation of over 550 kilometers of drainage channels;

• Creation/refurbishment of about 34 kilometers of coastal embankments;

• Building of 7 and rehabilitation of 19 hydraulic structures;

• Building of 20 outlet structures;

• Construction of 38 culverts and bridges (drainage infrastructure) along the road networks;

• Construction of a closure along one embankment; and

• Pilot testing of raising coastal land levels by means of controlled sedimentation (‘tidal basin’).

While KJRP – initiated in 1995 – certainly precedes the current discourse on “mainstreaming”, it is interesting to note that the project links adaptation measures to coastal flooding directly with achieving the national development goal of poverty reduction. Also noteworthy is the use of a multi-pronged approach in which several adaptation measures were implemented in parallel. One of the interesting lessons learnt from the project is that, as an alternative solution to major regulators along the embankments, the local population favored a ‘tidal river management’ approach to remove coastal tidal inundation (EGIS, 1998). The environmental damages caused by decade-long saline water logging in


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polder number 24 have been adequately addressed as a result of KJDRP, which may be considered as an example of successful adaptation in dealing with coastal flooding (BWDB, 2000).

7.3.2 Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project

This project was jointly funded by the World Bank-IDA, the EC and the Government of Bangladesh at a total cost of US $80 million, and covering an 85000 hectare area along the south-eastern coast. The first phase project is already complete, and a second phase CERP-II is scheduled for completion in 2003. The overall objective of the project is to improve living conditions of the coastal population by taking a series of measures towards rehabilitation of coastal embankments. The measures of embankment rehabilitation include improved operation and maintenance of infrastructure; afforestation along embankments to facilitate land stabilization (creation of tree cover on the slope of embankments); and coastal (mudflat) afforestation.

Under the project that started in 1995-96, various engineering interventions for the rehabilitation have been made along 116 kilometers of embankment. Furthermore, protection works for embankment strengthening have been completed in 9.5 kilometers, while 40 drainage sluices have also been constructed to facilitate drainage from various embankments. The project authority claims that, over 1,500 hectares of foreshore areas have been brought under mangrove afforestation, while trees have been planted along the slope of embankments (BWDB, 1999; JPCOY et al., 2000). According to the project manager, the project has boosted agriculture production through prevention of saline intrusion and storm surges, enhanced use of HYV seeds which became more financially viable as a result of the enhanced security offered to agricultural lands, and improved drainage conditions in the polders (Rahman, undated). It is also estimated that 50% more lives could be saved for cyclonic surges with return periods of 10 years. However, the project had an initial emphasis primarily on structural responses and did not emphasize water resource management issues inside the polders, and saw the role of the government evolve from being a builder, to a partner working with NGOs and local communities for achieving the project objectives (Rahman, undated).

7.3.3 Noakhali Khal Re-excavation Protection Project

The objective of the project is to protect coastal lands in the target areas from saline water intrusion, provide drainage facility, reduce cyclone damages, and increase crop production. BWDB is the implementing agency on behalf of the government. The project commenced its activities in 1998-1999 and is likely to be completed in 2003. Under the project, the silted up Noakhali Khal (rivulet) has been re-excavated for a stretch of about 25 kilometers in the Thanas of Sudharam, Begumganj and Companiganj of Noakhali district. One flood protection closure and one regulator have also been constructed, which would provide autonomous adaptation towards reducing vulnerability to coastal flooding.

7.3.4 Meghna Estuary Study ─ Phases I and II (MES)

The long-term objective of MES is to understand estuarine processes, problems and opportunities so that the knowledge-base can be utilized for achieving the following: to improve the physical safety and social security of the people living in the coastal areas and on the islands in the estuary; to retain and increase the operational knowledge of the hydraulic and morphological processes in Meghna estuary; and to develop appropriate approaches and techniques for efficient land reclamation as well as effective river bank protection measures.

The recently completed study, under the joint management of WARPO and BWDB, performed a host of activities including: benchmark surveys on marine, land and socio-economic aspects; studies on hydrodynamics, estuarine morphology, environment, and socio-economy of the area; preparation of a 25


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year (phased) Master Plan for the development of the Meghna estuary; preparation of 5 years (phased) land and water development plan with prioritization of projects; and preparation of small scale pilot schemes with complete design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. A number of study reports along with the Master Plan have been published as outcomes of the study (MOWR, 2001a; MOWR, 2001b; MOWR, 2001c; MOWR, 2000).

On the basis of outputs of the study, the government promptly launched an Estuary Development Program (EDP) in July 2002, to be implemented by the Ministry of Water Resources. The general objective of the action program is to increase physical safety of the areas, thereby enhancing social security of the vulnerable people living in the estuarine areas. MES and EDP would certainly increase natural systems resilience to coastal hazards such as floods (tide and surge induced) and reduce vulnerability of both physical and socio-economic systems in the estuarine areas.

7.3.5 Other Polder Rehabilitation Projects

In addition to these major project activities, a number of polder rehabilitation projects have been undertaken with donor assistance along the coastal zone with a common objective to increase conveyance capacity of the coastal rivers and reduce drainage congestion. A partial listing of such projects is as follows:

• Bhulua River Re-excavation (1998-99 and 2001-02), cost US$ 2 million.

• Sureswar Pilot Project (1998-99 and 2003-04), cost US$10.5 million.

• Polder 64/IA, 64/IB, and 64/IC Rehabilitation (2001-02 and 2003-04), cost of US$6 million.

• Muhuri-Kahua FCD Project (2002-03 and 2005-06), cost US$43 million.

• Construction/rehabilitation of Polder 65 and 64B (2002-03 and 2003-04), cost US$1.8 million.

• Southwest FDR Project (2000-01 to 2001-02), cost US$16 million.

• Retired Embankment and Sluices in Polder 56/57 (2001-02 to 2002-03), cost US$2 million.

• Ramshil-Kafulabari FCD Project (1997-98 to 2002-03), cost US$5 million.

• Barabaishdia FCD Project in Polder 50/51 (1998-99 to 2002-03), cost US$4 million.

In order to enhance further protection from coastal flooding, the MOWR has undertaken a few other projects involving extension of a few identified polders. These projects include:

• Polder-69 extension (1998-99 to 2002-03), cost US$3 million.

• Kenduar Beel Polder 36/I Extension (1999-00 to 2001-02), cost US$0.4 million.

• Polder 59/2 Extension (1998-99 to 2002-03), cost of about US$2 million.

7.3.6 Protection of towns and transportation infrastructure

To protect important towns from tidal flooding, a number of projects have been undertaken by the MOWR. Two important projects in this category are the Bhola Town Protection Project, which has


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been implemented over a period of about 11 years starting from 1992-93 at a cost of about US$6 million, and the Chandpur Town Protection Project, which has been implemented since 1997 to protect Chandpur town from erosion at an estimated cost of about US$19 million. The project is expected to be completed by 2004. Another set of projects that are synergistic with adaptation to climate change involve the installation of adequate drainage infrastructure along the coastal road network a major means of adaptation towards facilitating flood drainage. The Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) has been very active in the coastal zone to implement a number of projects. Two major projects in this category are:

Flood Drainage Rehabilitation Project in Completed Rural Development Project: One of the major objectives of the project is to implant flood drainage infrastructure in rural roads which have been completed under the Rural Development Project-18 along the entire south-western region of the country. With the financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the project is now being implemented at a cost of about US$12 million. The project is likely to be completed in 2003.

Construction of Low Cost Bridge/Culvert in Rural Roads (Phase I & II): Beginning in 1995, a large number of small scale bridges and culverts, as required, have been constructed along rural roads under the project. Although the project has been designed to include the entire country, a good proportion of such drainage infrastructure has been built in the coastal areas.

7.3.7 Improving disaster relief

As discussed in earlier sections, Multi-purpose Cyclone Shelters (MCS) have contributed immensely towards enhancing local capacities to reduce death toll during an event of high intensity cyclonic storm surges. A total of over 2100 MCS have been built over the years, a large number of such infrastructure have been built particularly as a preparedness response of the big cyclone of 1991 (Ahmed, 2000; Haider, 1992). A number of government and non-government agencies, in coordination with the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), have constructed these MCSs. In addition to these physical adaptation and capacity building, institutional adaptation in relation to provide coordination and management services during- and post-cyclone periods has been offered by DMB. SPARRSO and Bangladesh Meteorological Department are responsible for tracking the formation and progression of cyclones, and providing cyclone warnings. The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society has been playing a commendable role in organizing local communities, which may be regarded as a very successful social adaptation, to respond to cyclone warning and save human lives by temporarily taking refuge to the nearest MCS. It is to be noted here that, the adaptation package has so far been very successful. Considering that the coastal population is increasing, the total demand for such cyclone shelters cannot be met by the existing MCSs and new MCS must be built keeping the rate of population growth in perspective. Moreover, a mechanism must be developed to monitor the quality of the facilities. Many of the MCSs have been built in early 1970s, and therefore may require periodic maintenance.

7.3.8 Planned activities relevant to adaptation to coastal flooding

In addition to the above mentioned activities towards reducing coastal flood vulnerability, Bangladesh is contemplating to implement a number of activities in the coastal zone. Again, the general objective of each of these activities is not adaptation to climate change impacts. It may, however, be expected that these planned activities would be synergistic with adaptation to climate change. Table 10 lists projects identified in the draft National Water Management Plan (see Section 6.3), which are expected to contribute to the future adaptation to coastal floods under climate change.


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Table 10. Projects identified in the draft NWMP that contribute to adaptation to coastal flooding

Project Estimated cost (in million US$)

Cluster: Main Rivers Ganges Barrage and Ancillary Works 898 Ganges Dependent Area Regional Surface Water Distribution Networks 157 Main River Erosion Control at Selected Locations 380 Cluster: Towns and Rural Areas Large and Small Town Flood Protection 255 Cluster: Major Cities Khulna Bulk Water Supply and Distribution Systems 139 Chittagong Sanitation and Sewerage Systems 229 Khulna Sanitation and Sewerage Systems 987 Chittagong Flood Protection 15 Chittagong Storm water Drainage 212 Khulna Flood Protection 8 Khulna Stormwater Drainage 66 Cluster: Disaster Management Cyclone Shelters and Killas 175 Bari-level Cyclone Shelters 31 Flood Proofing in the Charlands and Haor Basin 46 National, regional and Key Feeder Roads – Flood Proofing 193 Cluster: Agriculture and Water Management Rationalization of Existing FCD Infrastructure 379 Land Reclamation, Coastal Protection and Afforestation 108

The Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) project in particular offers great potential for the identification and implementation of future measures that would contribute to the overall process of coastal zone adaptation. In addition to making provisions for adaptation to coastal flooding, ICZM could also facilitate the future management of the Sundarbans forest. The ICZM Project Development Office (PDO) is currently undertaking a climate change study with the purpose of providing policy guidelines for integrating climate change vulnerability issues in projects relating to the coastal zones of Bangladesh (PDO-ICZM, 2003). The ICZM project is also undertaking vulnerability mapping of the coastal zone. The development of such a knowledge base could facilitate better incorporation of climate risks in future projects in the coastal zone.

8. Climate change and the Sundarbans

Linked to the problem of coastal flooding is the potential impact of climate change on the Sundarbans which straddle south-western Bangladesh and the adjoining coast in the Indian state of West Bengal. With a total area of over 10,000 square kilometers, the Sundarbans constitute that world’s largest contiguous mangrove ecosystem. The second largest is only about one-tenth in size. Roughly 60% of the Sundarbans fall in Bangladesh, located on the northern limits of the Bay of Bengal and the old Ganges delta.

The Sundarbans house one of the richest natural gene pools for fauna and flora in the world. The flora contains at least 69 species, with the Sundari (Heritiera Fomes) – which gives the forest its name – and the Gewa (Excoecaria Agallocha) being the dominant species that provide timber for paper and wood products. A total of 425 species of wildlife have been identified in the Sundarbans, including 42 species of mammals, 300 species of birds, 35 reptiles, and 8 amphibian species (Blower 1985; Rashid and Scott 1989). The most notable – the Royal Bengal Tiger – is endemic to the forest. In recognition of this richness in biodiversity, both the Indian and the Bangladesh Sundarbans were declared world heritage sites by UNESCO.


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The Bangladesh Sundarbans Reserve Forest (SRF) also offers subsistence livelihood for about 3.5 million inhabitants within and around the forest boundary. The forest consists of numerous creeks and rivulets which play a crucial role in bringing a balance between saline and fresh water: the former being brought by semi-diurnal tides, and the latter through rivers and precipitation which helps continuously flush the salinity off the forest floor. Freshwater tends to dominate during the monsoon season while salinity levels are highest in the dry season that precedes the monsoons.

Traditional lifestyles were in fact reasonably well adapted to these unique characteristics of the Sundarbans. Human dwellings were built on raised platforms, and farmers cultivated salinity and flood tolerant rice during the monsoon in land protected by temporary dykes when the abundance of freshwater had greatly reduced salinity levels. The dykes were dismantled post-harvest, opening the land to tidal movements. Meanwhile fishing of salt tolerant varieties was the principal source of livelihood during the dry season when salinity levels were high (Firoze, undated).

These traditional lifestyles have been altered in recent decades on account of a number of factors. A high rate of population growth has led to the ecosystem supporting an ever-growing population. Poaching of wildlife and illegal felling of timber are among the most severe environmental threats. A number of species such as the Javan rhinoceros and the water buffalo have already disappeared (Siddiqui 1997). Industrial development in the region and opening up of access to trade has also imposed increased demands on forest resources, particularly timber. The growing barge traffic and lax environmental enforcement have also led to a number of oil spills which continue to adversely impact the ecosystem.

Recent decades have also seen two major infrastructural developments – one local and the other in neighboring India – that have caused a major change in the dynamics of the ecosystem, and consequently local livelihood patterns. The first ironically was intended as an adaptation to coastal flooding – a series of coastal embankments that were built by the Government of Bangladesh in the late 1960s. However, as discussed in Section 7.2, the flow regulators in these embankments were either not built according to design and/or not properly maintained thereafter, which over time led to drainage congestion and water logging starting in the early 1980s. The second development was the construction of the Farakka barrage upstream in the Indian state of West Bengal in 1974 that diverted water and reduced dry season flows and led to significantly enhanced salinity levels in the dry season.

The inundation and salinity changes interrupted the traditional livelihood practices discussed earlier. However, at the same time they offer an ideal opportunity for shrimp farming which exploded as an export oriented cash industry starting in the mid-1980s, boosting local incomes21. On the other hand however, shrimp farming encouraged farmers to artificially inundate lands with brackish water during periods of low salinity, causing severe damage to the forest cover. The depletion of forests in water logged shrimp areas also increased pressures in other parts of the Sundarbans for fuel wood and timber, enhancing the rate of forest depletion. The thin wire mesh that is used for shrimp collection meanwhile is also resulting in the capture of larvae of other species, which are then discarded, thus causing the depletion of the stock of other fish species (Firoze, undated).

Meanwhile high dry season salinity levels, in part the result of water diversion upstream in India, have also adversely impacted agriculture production, besides increasing the environmental stress on the forest cover. The south-western region of Bangladesh, including the Sundarbans forest areas have already witnessed how surface salinity penetrate with decreasing flow condition in the lower Ganges distributary systems. SRDI (1997) reports indicate that, following the drastic diversion of surface flow in the Ganges in 1975 there has been a gradual rise in salinity in the entire Ganges Dependent Area (GDA). As a consequence

21 One village in the Begarhat district in fact came to be known as the “Kuwait of Bangladesh” on account of

its new prosperity (Firoze, undated).


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of saline penetration the 1 ppt isohaline line during the peak low flow season (March) has reached as far as Kamarkhali Ghat, a location which was free from surface salinity hazard in the pre-Farakka period. Around Khulna, a divisional town located some 146 km upstream from the Bay, the salinity has increased from 380 micro-mhos in the pre-Farakka period to about 29,000 micro-mhos in the post-Farakka period.

Salinity ingress also causes an increase in soil salinity, especially when farmers irrigate their lands with slightly saline surface water at the beginning of the low flow period. SRDI (1997) reported that, soil salinity levels south of Khulna and Bagerhat towns ranged between 8 to 15 dS/m during the low flow season. It is also reported that, several sub-districts (such as Kachua, Mollahat, and Fultali) south of the Sundarbans ─ known to be non-saline in the pre-Farakka period ─ have began to develop soil salinity during the low flow seasons of 1980s. The anticipated results of salinity ingress will be, at a minimum, of the same order for climate change induced low flow regime compared to similar effects shown by deliberate withdrawal of flows at Farakka barrage.

8.1 Climate change impacts on the Sundarbans

The potential impacts of climate change on the Sundarbans will only be superimposed on the baseline stresses discussed above that are already posing a critical threat to the ecosystem. Following from the scenarios outlined in Section 3, climate change is expected to have a significant effect on the flow regimes of the major rivers in Bangladesh, including the Ganges. Since the viability of the Sundarbans rests on the hydrology of the Ganges and its tributaries which supply the fresh water influx, climate change is expected to have significant impact on the Sundarbans. In addition to the altered hydrology, sea level rise will also have adverse impacts on the forest, directly through enhanced inundation and indirectly by enhancing saline intrusion in river systems.

The climate change scenarios reviewed in Section 3.2 indicate that there is general agreement across climate models on increased precipitation during the monsoon season. Greater rainfall runoff would provide increased freshwater discharge in all the major distributaries of the Ganges supplying freshwater to the Sundarbans – the Gorai, the Modhumati and Bhairab system on the Bangladesh side and the Hoogly on the Indian side. Generally, increased flow regime in the distributaries of the Ganges would push the saline front outward towards the sea. Such a changed freshwater dominated hydrological condition during the monsoon in the absence of countervailing influences would help freshwater loving species such as the Sundari, especially in the mesohaline and polyhaline regions.

Simultaneously however, a rise in sea level would also occur under climate change which would cause increased backwater effect in the major distributaries of the Ganges and tend to push the saline front further inland. The final location of the saline front during the monsoon will therefore be the result of two opposing effects: enhanced freshwater flows and enhanced backwater effect, and is hard to predict precisely. The backwater effect would also reduce the discharge of freshwater flow from the northern reaches of the tributaries of the Ganges resulting in a relatively prolonged inundation of the forest land. Increased rainfall intensity – which is also anticipated in the region - would caused enhanced erosion upstream and result in increased availability of sediments, particularly along the Ganges and its distributaries. The latter effect in combination with prolonged flooding episodes would increase the rate of sedimentation/siltation in the back swamps and creeks inside the forest area. Such a change would be relatively more pronounced in the Bangladesh side of the forest and may slightly offset permanent inundation of the forest floor due to continued increase in sea level rise.

The effects of climate change on the Sundarbans would be considerably more critical during the dry season that extends from November to April. Climate models predict a decrease in precipitation during this period which might further reduce freshwater flows, which will encourage enhanced withdrawals upstream for irrigation. This reduction in freshwater inflows into the Sundarbans could be exacerbated by


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increased evapo-transpiration losses and water use on account of rising winter temperatures. Reduced freshwater flows coupled with sea-level rise would consequently further enhance the dry season salinity levels in the Sundarbans.

The reduction in freshwater flows would only deteriorate with time and the lowest water levels would be expected in March. As a response to reduced flow regime the salinity front would penetrate inland both inside the forest areas and in the entire south-western areas of the country. Similar ingress of salinity is also expected on the Indian side of the Sundarbans. The effect of sea level rise on salinity ingress is modelled here using the salinity model of the Institute of Water Management (IWM), Bangladesh. Considering about 23 cm of SLR, isohaline lines penetrate inland, as shown in Figure 9 Significant penetration has been indicated for the threshold salinity of 1 ppt or higher for the rivers supplying freshwater in the western and central parts of the Sundarbans: Betna, upper Bhairab and Kobadak.

Figure 9. Salinity ingress in the Sundarbans under 23 cm sea level rise

If an increased sea level rise of 44 cm is considered a relatively higher penetration is expected to occur along the western parts of the GDA for the isohaline limits of 1, 5 and 10 ppt. It must however be mentioned that the model offers results of low confidence due to its limitation of using a fixed salinity boundary along the downstream of rivers. The modelling results are indicative, and actual salinity ingress would be compounded but when model results are superimposed on the possibility of reduction of surface flows during the peak low flow period, one may have an understanding of the extent of salinity ingress along the rivers in the Sundarbans. As a consequence of salinity penetration in the Sundarbans, majority of the mesohaline areas will be transformed into polyhaline areas, while oligohaline areas would be reduced to only a small pocket along the lower-Baleswar river in the eastern part of the forest. Such a finding closely supports earlier studies (Ahmed et al., 1998).


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High intensity cyclonic storm surge, induced by a general rise in sea surface temperature, is also likely to have compounding effect on salinity intrusion along the coastal areas of Bangladesh, including the Sundarbans. A simple frequency distribution of all observed cyclonic activities in the Bengal delta suggests that these events usually occur twice per annum: in late May and in early November (Haider et al., 1991). Cyclones are usually formed in a complex process where the sea surface water temperature is exceeded beyond the threshold value of 27oC. Since climate change will cause an increase in mean sea surface temperature, it may be expected that the excess heat energy will be dissipated in the form of increasing number of high intensity cyclones. Unfortunately, such high intensity cyclones are often associated with high storm surges. It may be argued that intensity of storm surges is likely to be increased under climate change scenarios, particularly in the later part of the 21st century. Cyclonic storms would cause severe damages to the forest, its inhabitants and resources. A high intensity event in 1986 devastated the Sundarbans, drowned thousands of its magnificent animals including the threatened species, the Bengal Tiger. The wind associated with that particular cyclone also devastated vegetation of a large part of the forest. Influenced by climate change, high intensity storm surges would inundate high levees and back swamps that do not get submerged with saline water and thereby would be affected by salinity.

According to a number of studies available on the Sundarbans (Karim, 1994; Siddiqi, 1994), complex forest processes such as the natural regeneration of vegetation and forest succession also depend on salinity regime. Considering that the salinity regime inside the forest will significantly change as a consequence of climate change, it has been argued that increased salinity would have discernable adverse impacts on forest regeneration and succession (Ahmed et al., 1998). For example, the freshwater loving Sundari is projected to decline or disappear entirely under climate change. Areas with best quality standing timber predominated would be replaced by inferior quality tree or shrub species. Under such conditions vegetation canopy would become sparse and plant height would be reduced significantly. With such a dramatic series of anticipated changes in forest vegetation under climate change, the productivity of the forest would be severely constrained. Chaffey et al. (1985) demonstrated that, total merchantable wood volume per unit area of forest land decline with increasing soil and river salinity. Preliminary estimates suggested that, disappearance of oligohaline areas combined with decreasing mesohaline areas would result into over 50% loss of merchantable wood from the Sundarbans (Ahmed et al., 1998). Increase in salinity in the Indian side of the forest would have compounding effect to the existing poor productivity of the forest.

Since the composition of vegetation has profound effect on distribution of forest fauna, a change in forest succession would in turn affect the long-term sustainability of the ecosystem. Considering the timeframe of such changes and the land-use patterns inland, it is highly unlikely that forest species would have sufficient time or room to migrate inland in response to these changes.

8.2 Adaptation options for the Sundarbans

The most useful adaptation aiming at saving the Sundarbans from sea-level rise induced submergence would be to modify the threats of permanent inundation. Since most part of the projected sea level rise would occur from tectonic subsidence, it would not be quite possible to stop the processes involved. However, efforts must be made to figure out ways to enhance sedimentation on the forest floor, by means of guided sedimentation techniques. If such approaches appear to be technically feasible and economically viable at a pilot level, efforts must be made to undertake projects in order to save the forest. Controlled and guided sedimentation will have a balancing influence on subsidence process and could help delay permanent inundation of the forest floor.

The second most important adaptation strategy will be to reduce the threats of increasing salinity, particularly during the low flow period. This may involve a range of physical adaptations to offset salinity ingress, including: (a) increasing freshwater flows from upstream areas; (b) resuscitation of existing river


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networks towards improving flow regime along the forest; and (c) artificial enhancement of existing river networks to facilitate freshwater flow regime along the rivers supplying freshwater to the western parts of the forest.

For the sustenance of the forest in its natural state a previous study has recommended that about 240 cumec water should be allowed to flow through the Gorai river system, particularly during the critical dry period of April (Mirza, 1998). The actual amount of water flowing along the Gorai River in 1995-96 was about 52 cumec, which was far below that the recommended flow regime. The Gorai River is an important source of freshwater supply to the southwest region (SWR) of Bangladesh and is the only remaining major spill channel of the Ganges River flowing through the region where the Sundarbans is located at its southern most part. Dry season Gorai flows have been particularly affected by the building of the Farakka barrage on the Indian side. The most visible impact has been in the form of bringing morphological changes along the Gorai ─ since 1988, the river has been completely disconnected from the Ganges during every lean season. As a result only the base flow of the Gorai river system, contributed predominantly by seepage, was able to reach the Sundarbans during the dry season.

Following the signing of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty (GWST) with India in 1996, the flow regime of the Ganges within Bangladesh has slightly improved. In order to increase the flow from its current level will require enhancing regional cooperation amongst coriparian countries to augment flow regime of the Ganges, and the creation of storage capacity within the Ganges basin on the Bangladesh side so that a sustained flow regime can be maintained in Gorai and other rivers throughout the lean season.

8.3 Measures undertaken to enhancing the flow regime in the Sundarbans

The implications of reduced dry season fresh water flows and salinity increase in the Sundarbans as a result of water diversion upstream have been severe enough for the GOB to take actions to ameliorate the situation, without giving any considerations to future implications of climate change on the Sundarbans forest. The steps taken in the past cannot, therefore, be considered as a planned adaptation to climate change, although they are certainly synergistic with climate change responses.

As a first step to enhance flow regime of the Ganges and its distributaries, Bangladesh and India negotiated the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty (GWST) in 1996. According to the GWST, Bangladesh would receive a maximum flow of 58,180 cusec (1,648 cumec) water in January, and a minimum of 32,623 cusec (924 cumec) water in April. Despite a few early hick ups towards implementation of the Treaty, flow regime in the Ganges improved significantly in the lower riparian Bangladesh compared to the pre-Treaty period.

Simultaneously, the GOB implemented a two-phase project to resuscitate Gorai and restore its flow conditions by dredging the mouth of the river. The project follows a pilot phase undertaken during1999-2001. The objective of the initial (feasibility) phase of the Gorai River Restoration Project (GRRP) was “to prevent environmental degradation in the SWR, specifically around Khulna, the coastal belt and in the Sundarbans, by undertaking restoration of the Gorai river and hence ensuring freshwater flow in the wet season and augmenting these flows during the dry season” (DHV-Haskoning and Associates, 2000). Pilot-scale dredging was carried out during 1998-1999 and 1999-2000. Based on the favorable findings of the initial phase, a number of engineering interventions have now been recommended:

• Flow divider

• Ganges/Gorai revetment


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• River training works along the Gorai and restructuring of river training works

• Dredging of clay layers in the Gorai offtake

• Installation of bottom vanes.

The pilot study concluded by stating “it is probably opportune to implement such works in the future, when the firm need therefore has been established, or when suitable conditions prevail for their implementation” (DHV-Haskoning and Associates, 2000). The overall objective of GRRP-implementation project – undertaken by the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWPD) was to implement the recommendations of GRRP study, and thereby ensure freshwater flows along the Gorai river system covering an area of about 16,100 km2. The Feasibility Study for the GRRP identified significant ecological and environmental benefits from providing a minimum flow of 60 m3/s, particularly by facilitating freshwater availability to the Sundarbans forest. The project envisaged other benefits arising from reduced salinisation, increased agriculture and other in-stream values such as aquatic biodiversity, freshwater fisheries and navigation. The Project was considered to be technically and economically justifiable. The GRRP was completed in January 2002 at a cost of about US$58 million. The engineering option which considered river training works in combination with occasional maintenance dredging has been found reliable and uncomplicated. The project activities provided for a significant recurrent cost saving over recurrent dredging options (PDO-ICZM, 2002a).

The BWDB is now undertaking a project, called Re-excavation of the Kobadak River, at a cost of about US$5 million. The river used to supply freshwater directly into the central part of the forest. In course of time it has lost its water conveyance capacity due to gradual sedimentation and human encroachment particularly during the dry season. The re-excavation project is aimed at resuscitation of the river and re-excavation is taking place in three major districts north of the Sundarbans. The re-excavation will continue till 2004 and it is expected to enhance freshwater flows along the river servicing the forest. Another river, the Betna, has also been considered for re-excavation by the BWDB. Betna is the only major river that used to provide with freshwater in the lean season to the western parts of the forest. The project began in 2001-2002 season and expected to be completed in 2003 at a cost of US$4 million. The project is expected to increase freshwater flow in the western parts of the Sundarbans and reduce surface salinity.

8.4 Potential adaptation benefits from planned and ongoing activities

In addition to the above mentioned projects and activities, a few others are currently underway or in the pipeline. The GOB has undertaken a major study for the entire GDA ─ called the Study on Options for the Ganges Dependent Areas (OGDA) ─ which identified a few options for environmental restoration of the Sundarbans forest. Although this was not a conscious effort to promote long-term adaptation to climate change, the study has now become an input to the recently undertaken National Water Management Plan (NWMP, 2001).

The objective of the OGDA study was to develop technically feasible and socially acceptable options for environmental restoration and enhancement of the entire GDA by utilizing the water obtained though the Ganges river following signing of the GWST. In spite of the fact that the study never meant to pay special attention to the improvement of freshwater flow regime and controlling salinity of the Sundarbans forest, its options provided apparent solutions to the core problems. The study developed a number of options for diversion and distribution of the Ganges flows, with a focus on supplying adequate freshwater in the lean season.


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The study stated that, the dry season flows of the Ganges can be diverted into different parts of the GDA by pumping, through restoration/dredging old distributaries of the Ganges or by raising the Ganges command level with the help of a barrage (Halcrow and Associates, 2001). The study highlighted the potential and/or scope of these different options for augmentation of the flows in the internal rivers by diverting the Ganges waters in the following ways:

• River restoration, entailing quick dredging of Gorai and other distributary rivers of the Ganges. This option also called for a clear assessment of requirements for maintenance dredging and incorporation of some river training works.

• Central pumping, that would enable maintaining a flow regime in the distributary system of the Ganges river by lifting freshwater using pumps and releasing it into the existing and/or re-excavated river networks in the downstream. Such an option was regarded as technically feasible, but the study called for examining economic viability.

• Barrage option called for construction of a barrage on the Ganges to store freshwater enabling raised command levels in the lean season. This option appears promising, especially when combined with either of the previous two options.

The OGDA study recommended as many as seven choices by combining the above mentioned major options. The OGDA options have been incorporated into the recently formulated NWMP. The NWMP along with a 25 year implementation plan was currently placed before the Bangladesh National Parliament for discussion and approval.

The GOB is also undertaking an implementation project titled Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan (ICZM). Instead of embarking on any specific project activity, the ICZM has got the official mandate to establish a process that would enable all the stakeholders in the coastal zone to implement their activities in a coordinated fashion towards improving the natural resources of the coastal zone and maximizing benefits for the poor people ─ those eking out a living based predominantly on natural resources. The major focus of the ICZM project is to help alleviate poverty. In doing so, the project aims to enhance livelihood opportunities of the poor, for which reducing vulnerability of the resource base to climatic variability and change must be considered as an important means. The terms of reference for the Project Development Office (PDO) for implementation of ICZM require the integration of adaptation responses to climate change. Although the detailed plan of various activities under the ICZM programme are not yet finalized, an interview with the team leader of the ICZM project revealed that integration of possible adaptation issues for the entire coastal zone including the Sundarbans might be considered under the Action Plan that is currently under preparation. ICZM-PDO has already expressed interest in undertaking a programme on climate change for the entire coastal region, focusing on enhancing adaptation activities to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on coastal resources and people’s livelihood. Subject to endorsement by the Ministry of Water Resources, the activity would begin in later part of 2003. It is envisaged that, the project would integrate the activities recommended by the OGDA study and subsequently by the NWMP. This would certainly help increase freshwater flows along the distributaries of the Ganges which are the freshwater lifelines of the Sundarbans.

The ICZM project has conducted a number of stakeholder dialogue at the grassroots and identified the major elements of vulnerability of livelihood of the local poor. As identified by the local people, the most common elements of vulnerability along the coastal zone are linked heavily with bio-physical resources (PDO-ICZM, 2002b). In most cases, the identified bio-physical resources are found to be perturbed significantly by the current climatic variability. Under climate change regime several elements of vulnerability of the poor people would only get deteriorated.


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There are however a number of measures available to offset some of these impacts. In addition to measures that reduce salinity (through enhanced freshwater flows), the forest resources in the Sundarbans themselves may be enhanced through species enrichment, increasing surveillance and management capabilities of institutions and personnel involved, and establishing a mangrove arboretum. The Sundarbans Biodiversity Conservation Project (SBCP) funded by the GEF and ADB is now being implemented by the Department of Forest (DOF) at a cost of about US$77.5 million. The main objective of the project is to develop a sustainable management and biodiversity conservation system for all resources of the Sundarbans Reserve Forest (SRF). SBCP was by no means intended to address adaptation to climate change for the forest and its resources. But the activities that would help achieve its specific objectives would also help achieving goals of conservation of the forest biota. For example activities under ‘Field Forest Management’ such as forest rehabilitation, enrichment plantation, assisted natural re-generation and conservation of aquatic species would contribute to the enrichment of forest biota making them more resilient to additional climatic stresses. Furthermore, wildlife management programme is expected to provide protection to the valuable threatened species and improvement of habitat for species such as tigers, deer, other mammal species, reptiles, birds, snakes, amphibians. The component of public awareness raising would enable enhanced voluntary surveillance by the communities living at the outer periphery of the forest and check poaching of threatened and endangered species. For example, it is expected that local community based organizations (CBO) and non-government organizations (NGO) would be involved to actively take part in in-situ conservation of rare and endemic marine turtles. Given the high vulnerability of the forest associated with climate change and sea level rise, it is most likely that the SBCP and its follow up projects would supplement adaptation activities towards conservation of the forest and its resources.

9. Concluding remarks

Bangladesh is critically vulnerable to climate induced hazards, but the core elements of its vulnerability are primarily contextual. It is probably the only country in the world with most of its territory lying on the deltaic flood-plain of three major rivers and their numerous tributaries. Between thirty to seventy per cent of the country is normally flooded each year. The huge sediment loads brought by these Himalayan Rivers, coupled with a negligible flow gradient add to drainage congestion problems and exacerbate the extent of flooding. The low coastal topography contributes to coastal inundation and saline intrusion inland. Bangladesh also lies in a very active cyclone corridor that transects the Bay of Bengal. The societal exposure to such risks is further enhanced by its very high population and population density, with close to 800 persons per square kilometer in vulnerable areas such as the coastal zones. Very low levels of development and high levels of poverty (between 33 and 40%) add to the social sensitivity to any external hazards. Meanwhile traditional adaptation via seasonal migration to less vulnerable areas within the Indian subcontinent was probably curtailed significantly half a century ago with the creation of a discrete geopolitical entity (East Pakistan), which subsequently became Bangladesh. The internationalization of the region probably also contributed to water sharing conflicts, most notably the building of the Farakka barrage in India that led to the diversion of dry season flows, which exacerbated salinity concerns in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

Many projected climate change impacts including sea level rise, higher temperatures and evapo-transpiration losses, enhanced monsoon precipitation and run-off, potentially reduced dry season precipitation, and increase in cyclone intensity would in fact reinforce many of these baseline stresses that already pose a serious impediment to the economic development of Bangladesh. By the same token, many actions undertaken to address the baseline or contextual risks in Bangladesh are also synergistic with the so called adaptations that might be required as climate change impacts manifest themselves. There is therefore a need to clearly address whether climate change impacts are simply one more reason to lower contextual vulnerability via business as usual economic development activity, or whether adaptation to climate change might require suitable modifications in such projects or highlight the need for entirely new activities, and if so, what such activities might be. Thus far there has been no clear articulation on this important issue,


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despite the disproportionately high number (and somewhat duplicative nature) of conferences and donor funded projects on climate change that have taken place in Bangladesh over the past decade. New climate oriented projects in Bangladesh might therefore require a higher threshold of “value added” in the light of the considerable body of knowledge and past experience that has already been accumulated.

This report (like some others before it) indicates a general lack of explicit attention to “climate change” in many government plans and donor project documents in Bangladesh. At the same time however this report also reveals through a more in-depth analysis that despite this lack of explicit mention, a number of adaptations that climate change might necessitate are indeed already underway in Bangladesh through several government-donor partnerships. In particular, considerable progress has been made since the mid-1990s in implementing such projects. A wide array of river dredging projects have been completed to reduce siltation and facilitate better drainage at times of flooding as well as to boost dry season flows to critical areas such as the Sundarbans. The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty has been signed with India to boost dry season flows and reduce the threat of salinity, and more sophisticated cyclone early warning systems and protection shelters are being developed. All these measures are likely to contribute to reducing the vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts.

However, there are also some examples of development policies and priorities in Bangladesh that might potentially conflict with climate change responses. In particular, policies to encourage tourism and build tourism infrastructure in vulnerable areas of the coastal zone, particularly the Khulna region, might need to take into account the projected impacts of climate change to reduce the risk of mal-adaptation. On the other hand, plans to encourage ecotourism in the fragile Sundarbans might risk adding one more stress to a fragile ecosystem that will likely be critically impacted by sea level rise and salinity concerns.

With regard to structural adaptations such as coastal embankments and salinity reduction, even though it is true that many of these measures have already been integrated in development projects and policies in Bangladesh, there remains an ongoing challenge with regard to their durability and sustainability. For example, given the high influx of sediments from the Himalayan Rivers each year, measures such as dredging of waterways are not a one time response but require periodic repetition. Similarly flow regulators on coastal embankments require constant monitoring and maintenance for the lifetime of such structures – in fact it was the poor maintenance of such regulators in the original embankments established in the 1960s that cause widespread flooding when they became clogged by the 1980s. Monitoring and maintenance in turn requires continued government and donor interest as well as participation of the local population far beyond the original lifetime of the project. This point is echoed by the project director of the Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project who observed “The Operation and Maintenance (O&M) component appears to have been relegated. Political and institutional support from national to local level has been in favor of rehabilitation instead of preventative maintenance… The project’s sustainability is apparently seriously deficient” (M.S. Rahman, 2002). Structural adaptations therefore need to be matched by efforts to facilitate financial and institutional adaptation – sustained interest on the part of the government and donors, and the participation of local populations to help monitor and maintain infrastructural projects.

The Bangladesh case study also highlights the importance of the trans-boundary dimension in addressing climate change adaptation. The effect of water diversion as a result of the Farakka barrage on dry season flows and salinity levels in the Sundarbans was in fact comparable (if not higher) than the impact that might be experienced several decades later as a result of climate change. Adaptation to climate change might therefore not just be local but might require cross-boundary institutional arrangements such as the Ganges Water sharing treaty to resolve the current problems of water diversion. Finally, climate change risks should also not distract from aggressively addressing other critical threats, including shrimp farming, illegal felling of trees, poaching of wildlife, and oil pollution from barge traffic, that might


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already critically threaten the fragile ecosystems such as the Sundarbans even before significant climate change impacts manifest themselves.


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APPENDIX A: PREDICTIVE ERRORS FOR SCENGEN ANALYSIS FOR BANGLADESH

The table below shows the predictive error for annual precipitation levels for each SCENGEN model for each country. Each model is ranked by its error score, which was computed using the formula 100*[(MODEL MEAN BASELINE / OBSERVED) - 1.0]. Error scores closest to zero are optimal. The six models with the highest error scores from the estimation were dropped from the analysis.

Predictive errors for each SCENGEN model for Bangladesh Average error22 Minimum error Maximum error Models to be kept for estimation

MRI_TR96 13% 8% 16% CSI2TR96 22% 16% 32% ECH4TR98 24% 9% 34% CERFTR98 25% 4% 50% CSM_TR98 26% 5% 48% BMRCTR98 26% 17% 37% HAD3TR00 26% 12% 38% PCM_TR00 27% 12% 40% CCSRTR96 36% 2% 94% ECH3TR95 53% 30% 72% IAP_TR97 62% 30% 118%

Models to be dropped from estimation GISSTR95 65% 30% 137% GFDLTR90 67% 30% 134% HAD2TR95 71% 26% 164% LMD_TR98 73% 58% 94% CCC1TR99 84% 11% 279% W&M_TR95 92% 0% 227%

22 SCENGEN outputs data for 5×5 degree grids. To estimate for an entire country, a 10×10 degree area was

used and the data output from the resulting four 5×5 grids were averaged. The maximum and minimum of these four 5×5 grids are also reported.


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APPENDIX B: LIST OF PURPOSE CODES INCLUDED IN THE SELECTION OF CLIMATE-AFFECTED PROJECTS, ORGANIZED BY THE DAC SECTOR CODE.

DAC code

General sector name Purpose codes that are included in the selection

110 Education - 120 Health 12250 (infectious disease control) 130 Population - 140 Water supply and Sanitation

14000 14010 14015 14020 (water supply and sanitation – large systems) 14030 (water supply and sanitation – small systems) 14040 (river development) 14050 (waste management/disposal) 14081 (education/training: water supply and sanitation)

150 Government & civil society 15010 (economic & development policy/planning) 160 Other social infrastructure and

services 16330 (settlement) and 16340 (reconstruction relief)

210* Transport and storage All purpose codes 220 Communications - 230 Energy 23030 (renewable energy)

23065 (hydro-electric power plants) [23067 (solar energy)] 23068 (wind power) 23069 (ocean power)

240 Banking and financial services - 250 Business and other services - 310 Agriculture, forestry, fishing All purpose codes 320 Industry, mining, construction - 330 Trade and tourism 33200 (tourism, general)

33210 (tourism policy and admin. management) 410 General environment protection 41000 (general environmental protection)

41010 (environmental policy and management) 41020 (biosphere protection) 41030 (biodiversity) 41040 (site preservation) 41050 (flood prevention/control)# 41081 (environmental education/training) 41082 (environmental research)

420 Women in development - 430 Other multisector 43030 (urban development)

43040 (rural development) 510 Structural adjustment - 520* Food aid excluding relief aid 52000 (dev. food aid/food security assist.)

52010 (food security programmes/food aid) 530 Other general programme and

commodity assistance -

600 Action relating to debt - 700* Emergency relief 70000 (emergency assistance, general) # 710* Relief food aid 71000 (emergency food aid, general) #

71010 (emergency food aid) # 720* Non-food emergency and

distress relief 72000 (other emergency and distress relief) # 72010 (emergency/distress relief) #

910 Administrative costs of donors - 920 Support to NGOs - 930 Unallocated/unspecified - * sector codes that are excluded in the second selection (low estimate). # purpose codes that are included in the emergency selection


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APPENDIX C: REVIEW OF SELECTED DONOR STRATEGIES FOR BANGLADESH

C.1 World Bank

Bangladesh 2020: A long-run perspective study (1996) Country Assistance Strategy (2001)

The Bangladesh 2020 Long-run perspective study (published as early as 1996) states that

“although the impacts of global warming are still far from precisely predictable, the prospect is sufficiently likely and alarming to warrant precautionary action at the national as well as at the international level. “ A section on climate change discusses the potential economic impacts of sea-level rise (13% of GDP), and notes that “The seriousness of the problem warrants strenuous research efforts to understand various aspects of the problem and devise remedies for future generations.” Already quite early in time, it advocated a dual response – international diplomacy in support of global mitigation, and national planning for adaptation. The World Bank responded to this challenge by preparing the Bangladesh Climate Change Study.

Given the work that was put into the Bangladesh Climate Change Study, and also given its outcomes, one would expect climate change concerns to be reflected prominently in the Bank’s new Country Assistance Strategy (2001). Surprisingly however, not much attention is devoted to this topic. The strategy only mentions climate change risks in the context of environmental problems, together with widespread resource depletion, ecological degradation, urban and industrial pollution, and natural disasters. It notes that addressing these problems is essentially a governance issue – not a financial one. Without improved information, policy reform and public sector accountability, these problems are likely to get worse. The Country Assistance Strategy does address Bangladesh’s vulnerability to natural disasters, albeit only at the end of the document: “Bangladesh's economy is also vulnerable to natural disasters of catastrophic proportions. In recognition of this, IDA must be prepared to consider additional assistance for post-disaster recovery through operations similar to those provided in the aftermath of the 1998 flood. This would be incremental to the investments for coastal embankments and riverbank protection that have been proposed to strengthen disaster mitigation capacity. IDA would support building the Government's capacity in managing these disasters and implementing a long-term flood control action plan.” The implications of these risks for non-disaster-related sectors and projects are not discussed.

C.2 UNDP/UNPF

Second Cooperation Framework for Bangladesh (2001-2005)

The Framework recognizes the high susceptibility to natural disasters, which aggravates the consequences of unsustainable natural resources management. Disaster preparedness, management capacity, and mitigation remain national priorities, as is food security. In particular, environmental management and food security will be core elements of UNDP assistance in the coming years. Despite strong overlaps with these issues, climate change is not mentioned at all.


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C.3 ADB

Country Strategy and Program Update 2003-2005 (2002) Country Assistance Program Evaluation for Bangladesh (2003)

ADB’s Country Strategy and Program Update lists climate change impacts as one of the priority environmental themes in a development coordination matrix. Elsewhere however, the topic is completely ignored, as is sea-level rise. Yet at the same time, current flood risks feature prominently, and many flood mitigation activities are planned and underway. Climate change not only poses an additional rationale for such activities, but there may also be opportunities to improve them by explicitly considering the shifting risks due to climate change, which are missed in this document. Droughts are not discussed at all.

The Country Assistance Program Evaluation for Bangladesh (2003) gives a similar picture. Several examples are given of the large influence of floods on Bangladesh’s economic performance: “output growth has fluctuated considerably over the years (not least because of the impact of flooding and other natural disasters)”. However, no attention is paid to droughts, or to increasing risks due to climate change and sea level rise.

C.4 IFAD

Country Strategic Opportunities Paper

IFAD’s strategy paper finds a disconnect between “micro success – macro stagnation”. It suggests that poverty reduction strategies in Bangladesh have been very successful in increasing resilience, demonstrated by impressive gains in the areas of food production, population control, health education, and in building up the institutional capacities of the poor. The way in which Bangladesh was able to cope with the devastating 1998 floods is another example of this resilience, which is characterized by people’s own efforts as well as government initiatives in safety-net provisioning and rural infrastructure development. However, the paper contrasts this success from the perspective of the “economics of resilience” with the failure of the “economics of graduation”. New poverty programmes tend to target the extremely poor, but the paper argues that particular attention should be paid to the moderately poor. This group, which makes up about 21% of all rural households, might well be tomorrow’s poor. They include small and marginal producers living above the poverty line but within the boundary of vulnerability to crisis shocks. While this category does not receive much attention in poverty programmes, its entrepreneurial potential is much larger than that of the poorest groups, and could contribute to the “economics of graduation”, a path of real growth. However, poverty programmes should ensure that these groups are not thrown back into poverty by crisis shocks, particularly natural hazards. Regarding the extremely poor, the paper finds another disconnect between current development programmes and the real needs of the country. Up to now, food security programmes have focused mainly on dry season food shortages. However, an additional challenge is to establish programmes dealing with seasonal poverty in the wet post-monsoon season.

While climate change is not explicitly addressed, IFAD’s programmes in Bangladesh exhibit a high level of analytical work on poverty and vulnerability, and its programmes positively contribute to vulnerability reduction to both current and future climate hazards.

C.5 DFID

Country Strategy Paper (1998)

DFID’s Country Strategy Paper (1998) explicitly lists the impact of current natural hazards on development, but neglects climate change and sea level rise. The 2001 Annual Plan and Performance Review acknowledges the macroeconomic impacts of the 1998 floods. While disaster management is not


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one of the priority areas of DFID’s involvement in Bangladesh, there is support for disaster mitigation, and the agency also responded to appeals for aid after those floods. Climate change and sea-level rise are not mentioned.

C.6 CIDA

Bangladesh Programming Framework (1999)

CIDA’s Bangladesh Programming Framework (1999) recognizes the high natural disaster risks to development operations and outcomes in Bangladesh, and the need for reinvestments in infrastructure and agriculture after the 1998 floods. It also notes the progress made in natural disaster risk reduction, and expects to continue support in this area. Climate change however, is not mentioned. A new Development Programming Framework is in preparation.

C.7 Government of Japan

Country Assistance Program Bangladesh (2000)

Japan’s Country Assistance Program (2000) places that disaster control is one of the strategic priority areas of Japanese aid implementation to Bangladesh. This program notes that Japan will study cooperation in line with the National Water Management Plan (NWMP) of the Bangladeshi government and promote more effective and efficient aid for cyclone countermeasures including areas such as greater utilization of the information and communications networks.

JICA Country Program for Bangladesh (2000)

Disaster control is one of JICA’s priority areas of cooperation to Bangladesh. JICA’s cooperation to Bangladesh in the disaster control area is in line with the National Water Management Plan (NWMP) of the Bangladeshi government. In order to cope with flood and cyclone disasters that are repeated every year, JICA emphasizes disaster prevention in addition to disaster rehabilitation

Country profile on environment (1999)

This document provides a comprehensive overview of environmental problems in Bangladesh, ranging from sanitation to solid waste management to forestry issues. However, climate change is not discussed as an additional burden on Bangladesh’s natural resources, and while flood risk is recognized as a major factor in the country’s development and natural resource management, the potential flood risk increase due to climate change is neglected.

C.8 SIDA

Development cooperation with Bangladesh

This brief programme description notes that SIDA’s aid focuses on education, health care, and development of rural areas. While climate-related risks (including current natural hazards) are crosscutting concerns in at least health and rural development, they are not mentioned at all in the document.


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C.9 USAID

Bangladesh Annual Report 2002 Strategy for FY 2000-2010 Strategic Plan 2000-2005

The long-term Strategy for FY 2000-2010 notes that the US has in the past supported various climate-change related initiatives in Bangladesh (through the US country studies program, and by supporting the current development of a National Action Plan on climate change). Otherwise, climate change is categorized as an environmental issue, although the potentially serious economic implications are recognized. Climate change is not discussed in the context of sectoral programs or disaster management. A similar picture emerges from the Strategic Plan 2000-2005.

In 2002, USAID’s program had a sizable disaster management and food security component, as well as programs in agribusiness, and open water and tropical forest resource management. All of these sectors could be vulnerable to climate change. Nevertheless, climate change is not mentioned in the 2002 annual report, except in an annex as a separate reporting requirement.


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APPENDIX D: REVIEW OF SELECTED DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS/PROGRAMMES

Many donors, including the USA, the Netherlands, the UK, the ADB, and New Zealand have supported studies on climate change vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh, between 1989 and 1996. The most recent major study, which has reviewed most of the previous results, was supported by the World Bank.

D.1 World Bank: Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development (2000)

The World Bank report Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development (2000) aimed to mainstream adaptation in the regular development strategies and operations in Bangladesh. It reviewed possible climate change impacts in Bangladesh, but particularly focused on an overview of adaptation options for various sectors, including fairly specific suggestions for some of them. In addition, it includes a review of sixteen development activities (mainly by the ADB and the World Bank, and also by the Netherlands and DFID) in the light of adaptation to climate change. This review considered two aspects: vulnerability of the projects themselves, as well as opportunities to reduce Bangladesh’s vulnerability in a broader sense. Its main finding was that most of the activities reviewed do not consider climate change impacts or adaptation to such impacts. In addition, it reviews the National Water Management Plan (NWMP), and offers specific suggestions to improve the NWMP.

D.2 CIDA/CARE Bangladesh Reducing Vulnerability to Environmental Change Project

CARE Bangladesh is conducting a project in Bangladesh’s six coastal districts, working with 6000 rural households to improve resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change. This project, which is just starting, is funded from the Canadian Climate Change Fund (CCCF). A detailed project document was not yet available for the current review, but the main objectives will to build local capacity to disseminate environmental change information and forecasts (including 600 farmer schools) and to extend proven grassroots techniques and measures to address climate change impacts.

D.3 GEF/ ADB Biodiversity Conservation in the Sunderbans Reserved Forest Project

The Sunderbans, a 3600 sq km cluster of coastal islands stretching from Bangladesh into India, are one of the world’s largest remaining areas of mangroves. It has been recognized as an important Ramsar Wetland site, and UNESCO has declared it a World Heritage Site, mainly because of its exceptional biodiversity, with a wide range or flora and fauna, including the Bengal Tiger. Monsoon rains, flooding, delta formation, tidal influences, and plant colonization all make the Sunderbans a highly dynamic environment. The area has been a reserve since the 1870s, preventing permanent human occupation of the reserved forest. Nevertheless, the human population in the area, which is concentrated in the buffer zones around the three official wildlife sanctuaries, depends for a large part on the resources of the reserved forests, either directly of indirectly. In recent decades, a range of mostly human-caused problems, generated by population growth and expansion of human activities, threaten the sustainability of the ecosystems as a whole, and wildlife stocks in particular. Particular problems include over extraction of wood and other natural resources, habitat modifications due to dying trees and increased permanency of


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fishing camps within the reserved forests, potential species extinctions, poaching, lack of community participation in sustainable resource use programs, and lack of multisectoral management capacity.

A large project is underway to protect the rich biodiversity of the Sunderbans and enhance the rural livelihoods of the local population, through sustainable natural resource management. Activities include (i) improvements in the organization and management of the reserve; (ii) incorporation of biodiversity conservation considerations in fisheries and forestry, management of wildlife resources, and integrated conservation planning; (iii) increasing local support for biodiversity conservation by local communities through education, awareness activities, and ecotourism development, and (iv) establishment of biodiversity monitoring systems. The project is funded by a GEF grant (implemented through the World Bank) and the ADB, with co-financing from the Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation, the Nordic Development Fund, the Netherlands, as well as the Bangladesh government, NGOs, and local beneficiaries.

The World Bank Climate Change study concluded that the Sunderbans are at high risk from climate change. While most of the proposed activities under the Biodiversity Conservation in the Sunderbans Reserved Forest Project will still pay off, the long-term viability of the reserve may require additional efforts. In response to the findings of the study, stakeholders involved in ecosystem conservation in the Sunderbans agreed to incorporate the results in the Biodiversity Conservation in the Sunderbans Reserved Forest Project (Huq, 2002, Rahman and Alam, 2003). Aside from strengthening existing efforts to better manage the reserve, the World Bank study also suggested that a minimum flow through the Ganges-Madhumati system is required to sustain the Sunderbans, with implications for the (already controversial) Ganges barrage, and the management of the Gorai river; issues which fall outside the scope of the GEF/World Bank/ADB project.

D.4 ADB Chittagong Hill Tracts Development Project

Report and Recommendation of the President (2000)

The Chittagong Hill Tracts area (inland hills) suffered a 20-year insurgency up to 1997, causing widespread poverty. This ADB project intends to relieve this poverty by improving local infrastructure (including small irrigation and flood control systems), community development funds, microfinance, and management support. Among the project risks, the document lists the fact that many of the roads to be constructed under the Project will pass through difficult terrain or will be subject to local flooding. The implication is that proper maintenance will be crucial. Climate change is not mentioned.

D.5 ADB Second Small-Scale Water Resources Development Sector Project


In accordance with Bangladesh’s National Water Plan and Flood Action Plan (which was developed after the 1997/1998 floods), the project aims to improve the development of the water resources sector through participatory rehabilitation and management of small-scale water resources infrastructure, and will support policy work and sector reforms. It will assist stakeholders to form water management associations and to upgrade physical facilities including (i) flood management, (ii) drainage improvement, (iii) water conservation, and (iv) command area development. The project clearly notes the challenges of regular floods, droughts, as well as riverbank erosion, and drainage congestion due to the siltation of watercourses. However, it does not even mention the additional risks of climate change. Nevertheless, given that the project will certainly reduce Bangladesh’s vulnerability to floods and droughts, and no project components critically depend upon the exact trends in water flows or local precipitation and temperature, it is unlikely that climate change considerations would have led to a very different project design.


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D.6 ADB Second Aquaculture Development Project

Project Performance Audit Report (2002)

The report notes that Bangladesh’s inland fisheries resources are among the richest in the world, due to the climate, water and soil conditions, particularly related to the annual flooding. However, fisheries have declined due to overfishing, and flood control and irrigation schemes. The project has addressed this decline in several ways. One was the opportunity for lending services to aquaculture farmers. This component did not meet its full objectives, due to a lack of appropriate extension services accompanying the loans, but also due to the severe flood in 1998 and recurring diseases, which both affected many aquaculture farms, causing difficulties in debt service and affected loan recovery. While the evaluation strongly recommends more attention for risk management with respect to shrimp diseases, the flood risk is taken for granted. No reference is made to climate change.

D.7 UNDP Empowerment of Coastal Fishing Communities for Livelihood Security (2000-2005)

The project has three main objectives: (i) empowerment of communities, (ii) enhancement of socio-economic capacity through savings, credits and income generation activities, and improved access to extension and social services, and (iv) improved capacity to cope with natural disasters. It also aims for sustainable conservation and management of coastal marine and estuarine fisheries resources and habitats. Hence, the project is likely to decrease the vulnerability of these communities and ecosystems to climate change. Nevertheless, the project description contains no reference to climate change as a risk to any of these project components.

D.8 GEF/UNDP Coastal and Wetland Biodiversity Management at Cox's Bazar and Hakaluki Haor (2000-2007)

The main objective of this project is to establish an innovative management system for Ecologically Critical Areas (ECAs), which will help conserve biodiversity. It focuses on a coastal area as well as inland wetlands. A section on global environmental benefits of the coastal area highlights the value of the Sunderbans, and notes the ongoing conversion to agricultural lands, shrimp culture, salt ponds and human settlements. In addition, it notes the effect of sea level rise and reduced fresh water supply on salinity in the coastal areas, making rice cultivation increasingly difficult. Native salt-resistant rice varieties should be conserved to become a source of genes for cultivated rice. Otherwise, no attention is paid to sea-level rise of climate change.

D.9 UNDP Support to Disaster Management (1996-2002)UNICEF/DFID/DENMARK

This disaster management project mainly focuses on soft measures to reduce the impact of disasters in Bangladesh. In particular, it aims to increase awareness of practical ways to reduce disaster risks and losses, to strengthen national capacity for disaster management (with emphasis on preparedness), to enhance the knowledge and skill of key personnel with disaster management responsibilities, to establish participatory local disaster action plans in the most disaster prone areas, to promote local–level risk reduction measures, and to improve the effectiveness of warnings and warning dissemination systems. All of these measures effectively contribute to a reduction of Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate change (even though this is no explicit goal of the project).

D.10 UNDP Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP)

Just like its predecessor (the Support to Disaster Management Program), the CDMP also addresses the whole range of disaster management activities (risk reduction, response and recovery). It is executed by the Bangladesh Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. According to the project document, effective


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mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction requires better information about the effects of climate variability, climate change and sea level rise, and in particular about the macro economic implications of increased floods, drought and cyclones. The project aims to establish "a systematic approach to prediction, monitoring, protection, evacuation, land use zoning, and information dissemination to build adaptive capacity, which in turn requires comprehensive and appropriate information produced and delivered at the right time, to the right people and agencies." The climate change component will collect and update existing knowledge, increase capacity to predict climate impacts (based upon a regional climate model), establish an institutional system to disseminate knowledge and mainstream risk reduction, and improve the capacity to implement adaptation measures at national and local levels.

D.11 IFAD Sunamganj Community-Based Resource Management Project

Appraisal Report (2001)

This project addresses poverty in the Sunamganj, a neglected and remote district characterized by frequent destructive flooding, which are listed as on of the prime causes of poverty. The project aims to address both poverty and vulnerability, among others by promoting labor-intensive infrastructure works, including erosion and flood control projects. The project design provides for community-based approach to floodplain ecosystem rehabilitation and erosion protection of villages through reforestation with indigenous swamp tree varieties. In these project elements, climate change mitigation and adaptation (as well as nature conservation) go hand in hand, even though neither of them is among the explicit objectives of the project. In fact, climate change is not mentioned at all. Natural hazard risk in general however, are fully taken into account, not just in terms of the project’s objectives, but also in the project risk analysis, which explicitly lists natural disasters as a risk to project outcomes in the field of rural infrastructure and the livelihood production program.

D.12 IFAD Income Diversification Project

Formulation Report (2003)

At the first page of its introduction, the project report notes the challenges of Bangladesh’s weather and climate, with high inter- and intra-annual variability, as well as cyclones. The project intends to address food insecurity and food production shortfalls by crop diversification and generation of other employment opportunities. It would take the homestead as its entry point, to target new opportunities to the wishes of the beneficiaries. Among others, agro-forestry would be promoted, because of the potential to use less productive lands, and to contribute to the supply of renewable raw materials, which would also supply income during the off-season (rainy season). The project would contain four main components: community development, agricultural development, credit facilities, and infrastructure improvement. The project is likely to contribute to vulnerability reduction, both directly and indirectly. Climate change however, is not discussed.

D.13 World Bank/GEF/DFID Aquatic Biodiversity Project

Project Information Document (1999)

The project notes that the fisheries sector accounts for 3% of total GDP, and 5% of the national workforce, which increases during the flood season. Fish supplies account for about 60% of animal protein intake in Bangladesh. However, per capita consumption of fish has substantially decreased since the 1970s, implying a significant loss of welfare. One of the reasons for a decline in inland open-water fisheries yields is the loss of biodiversity caused by, among others, flood control and road projects that interfere with natural breeding and life cycles of fish (the government is mitigating negative impact of flood control and road infrastructure on floodplain fisheries through a program of floodplain stocking and fish pass


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construction). The project aims to increase fish and shrimp production for domestic consumption and exports, consistent with sustainable resource management and with special emphasis on rural poverty alleviation, employment generation, improved capacity of local users to manage aquatic resources in a sustainable and equitable fashion, and conservation of aquatic biodiversity. One of the project components aim to improve inland open-water fisheries management through the development of sustainable, community-based institutions and supporting them in undertaking a program of adaptive management of their fisheries resources using technical measures such as stock enhancement of floodplain fisheries, restoration of fisheries habitats, establishment of fish sanctuaries, and construction of fish passes. Other elements aim to improve smallholder shrimp production, develop and apply an appropriate fisheries extension strategy, and prepare studies and strategic planning for the development and long-term sustainability of the fisheries sector. The (relatively brief) Project Information Document does not mention climate change, but it appears that the project will make the sector more resilient to environmental variability, and can help to balance the negative impacts of flood mitigation infrastructure with the needs for suitable fisheries environments and livelihoods.

D.14 ADBJamuna-Meghna River Erosion Mitigation Project

Summary Environmental Impact Assessment (2002)

The project aims to protect to vital irrigation systems, where riverbank erosion is threatening the embankments. Besides environmentally friendly structural measures, the project will also invest in riverbank erosion information management systems (including monitoring forecasting and warning), disaster preparedness and management support, social development support to vulnerable settlers in areas affected by riverbank erosion, and institutional capacity building. In this way, the project is highly likely to contribute to adaptation to current climate risks as well as climate change. The latter however, is not explicitly taken into account, and not mentioned anywhere in the document.


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APPENDIX E: SOURCES FOR DOCUMENTATION

Statistics

CRS database, OECD/World Bank http://www.oecd.org/htm/M00005000/M00005347.htm

Government documents

PRSP www.worldbank.org/prsp, http://www.sdnbd.org/sdi/issues/poverty/BD-prsp/

National Water Management Plan www.warpo.org

UN Conventions

UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) www.unfccc.int


• First report (2001)

• Second national report (2002)


Ramsar Convention on Wetlands www.ramsar.org

• National planning tool for the implementation of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (and the approved format for National Reports to be submitted for the 8th RAMSAR Meeting of the Parties, Spain, 2002)

World Summit on Sustainable Development www.johannesburgsummit.org

• country profile

• national assessment (summary)

Donor agencies

ADB

• Country Strategy and Program Update 2003-2005 (2002)

• Country Assistance Program Evaluation for Bangladesh (2003)

• Chittagong Hill Tracts Development Project, Report and Recommendation of the President (2000)


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• Second Small-scale water resources development sector project, Report and Recommendation of the President (2001)

• Second Aquaculture Development Project, Project Performance Audit Report (2002)

• Jamuna-Meghna River Erosion Mitigation Project, Summary Environmental Impact Assessment (2002)

• Sunderbans biodiversity protection project, Report and Recommendation of the President (1998)

DFID www.dfid.gov.uk • Country Strategy Paper (1998)

• Annual Plan and Performance Review (2001)

CIDA http://www.acdi-cida.gc.ca

• Bangladesh Programming Framework (1999)

• Reducing Vulnerability to Environmental Change Project (2002)

• Canadian Climate Change Fund projects overview (2003)

GEF www.gefweb.org

• Biodiversity Conservation in the Sunderbans Reserved Forest, project description (1999)

IFAD www.ifad.org

• Country Strategic Opportunities Paper (n.d.)

• Sunamganj Community-Based Resource Management Project, Appraisal Report (2001)

• Income Diversification Project. Project Formulation Report (2003)

• Third Rural Infrastructure Project, Appraisal Report (1997)

• Smallholder Agricultural Improvement Project, Appraisal Report (1999)

JICA www.jica.go.jp

• Country profile on environment (1999)

UNDP www.undp.org

• UNDP/UNPF Second Cooperation Framework for Bangladesh (2001-2005) (2000)

• Empowerment of Coastal Fishing Communities for Livelihood Security (2000-2005)

• Coastal and Wetland Biodiversity Management at Cox's Bazar and Hakaluki Haor (2000-2007)

• Support to Disaster Management (1996-2002), Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), Programme Support Document (2002)

SIDA www.sida.se

• Development Cooperation with Bangladesh (2002)


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UNEP www.unep.org

USAID www.usaid.gov

• USAID Bangladesh Annual Report


• Bangladesh 2020: A long-run perspective study (1996)

• Country Assistance Strategy (2001)

• Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development (2000)

• Aquatic Biodiversity Program, Project Information Document (1999)


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Development and Climate Change in Fiji:

Focus on Coastal Mangroves

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DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN FIJI: Focus on Coastal Mangroves

JT00154975


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Copyright OECD, 2003.



3

FOREWORD

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity being jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP) of the Environment Directorate, and the DAC Network on Environment and Development Co-operation (DAC-Environet). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Insights from the work are therefore expected to have implications for the development assistance community in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.

This report has been authored by Shardul Agrawala and Tomoko Ota. It draws upon three primary consultant inputs that were commissioned for this country study: “Case Study on Mangroves in Fiji” by James Risbey (Monash University, Australia); “Analysis of GCM scenarios and Ranking of Principal Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Fiji” by Stratus Consulting, Boulder, USA (Marca Hagenstad and Joel Smith); and “Review of Development Plans, Strategies, Assistance Portfolios, and Select Projects Potentially Relevant to Climate Change in Fiji” by Maarten van Aalst of Utrecht University, The Netherlands. An additional contribution “Mainstreaming Climate Responses in Development Planning and Assistance: Case Study of Fiji” was provided by Kanyathu Koshy and Biman Prasad from the University of South Pacific (USP), Fiji.

In addition to delegates from WPGSP and DAC-Environet, comments on earlier drafts were provided by Tom Jones, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Georg Caspary, Stephen Bygrave, and Remy Paris of the OECD Secretariat. Annett Moehner and Martin Berg provided project support at various times during the project. Shardul Agrawala would like to acknowledge feedback from Sofia Bettencourt (World Bank) and Padma Lal (Australian National University). James Risbey would like to acknowledge comments, advice, and co-operation from a number of researchers at the University of South Pacific, including Kanyathu Koshy, Leigh-Anne Buliruawa, Eileen Waradi, Batiri Thaman, Marika Tuiwawa, Nathan Evans, Saremaia Tuqiri, and Joeli Veitayaki, and Mosese Waqa (JICA), Avisaki Ravuvu (Assistant Director, Lands, Fiji), Maraia Ubitau (Director, Town and Country Planning, Fiji), and Taito Nakalevu (SPREP). The Secretariat and Maarten van Aalst would like to acknowledge several members of the OECD DAC who provided valuable materials on country strategies as well as specific projects. Stratus Consulting would like to acknowledge inputs from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).




4

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD.................................................................................................................................................. 3


1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Country background ......................................................................................................................... 8 3. Climate: baseline, scenarios, and key vulnerabilities ..................................................................... 11

3.1 Climate projections ................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Priority ranking of impacts and vulnerabilities......................................................................... 13

4. Attention to climate concerns in national planning ........................................................................ 15 4.1 Strategic Development Plan...................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Reports to global environmental conventions........................................................................... 16

5. Attention to climate concerns in donor activities ........................................................................... 17 5.1 Donor activities affected by climate risks................................................................................ 19 5.2 Attention to climate risks in donor strategies............................................................................ 23 5.3 Climate risk in selected development programs and projects................................................... 24 5.4 Other development programs and projects ............................................................................... 26

6. Overview of adaptation responses for Fiji...................................................................................... 27 6.1 Coastal resources ...................................................................................................................... 28 6.2 Agriculture ................................................................................................................................ 28 6.3 Human health............................................................................................................................ 28 6.4 Water resources......................................................................................................................... 28

7. Mangroves and climate change ...................................................................................................... 32 7.1 Mangrove structure and function .............................................................................................. 33 7.2 Current threats........................................................................................................................... 34 7.3 Response to climate change ...................................................................................................... 35 7.4 Review of plans bearing on mangrove regions in Fiji .............................................................. 36 7.5 Incorporating climate responses into development plans ......................................................... 43

8. Concluding remarks ....................................................................................................................... 47 8.1. Climate trends, scenarios and impacts ...................................................................................... 47 8.2 Attention to climate change concerns in national planning and donor portfolios..................... 47 8.3 Towards no regrets adaptation and mainstreaming of climate responses ................................. 47 8.4 Coastal mangroves and climate change .................................................................................... 48

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 50

APPENDIX A: GCM PREDICTIVE ERRORS FOR EACH SCENGEN MODEL FOR FIJI ................... 52

APPENDIX B: LIST OF PURPOSE CODES INCLUDED IN THE SELECTION OF CLIMATE-AFFECTED PROJECTS, ORGANIZED BY THE DAC SECTOR CODE. ............................................... 53

APPENDIX C: SOURCES FOR DOCUMENTATION .............................................................................. 55


5

Tables

Table 1. GCM estimates of temperature and precipitation changes for Fiji ....................................... 13 Table 2. Priority ranking of climate change impacts for Fiji ............................................................. 15 Table 3. Relative shares (by amount) of CRS activities for top-five donors in Fiji (1998-2000)....... 22 Table 4. Relative shares (by number) of CRS activities for the top five donors in Fiji (1998-2000) . 22

Figures

Figure 1. Location of Fiji ....................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2. Development diamond for Fiji.............................................................................................. 10 Figure 3. Development aid to Fiji (1998-2000).................................................................................... 18 Figure 4. Aid amounts committed to activities affected by climate risk (1998-2000) ......................... 21 Figure 5. Share (by number) committed to activities affected by climate risk (1998-2000)................ 22 Figure 6. Land use map of Fiji (Viti Levu) .......................................................................................... 32 Figure 7. Mangrove extent in Fiji (Viti Levu)...................................................................................... 33 Figure 8. Coastal ecosystem structure.................................................................................................. 34 Figure 9. OISCA mangrove replanting area, Sigatoka......................................................................... 39 Figure 10. Stretch of road near Suva close to the high water mark.................................................... 42 Figure 11. Seawall along the coral coast ............................................................................................ 43

Boxes

Box 1. A brief description of MAGICC/SCENGEN............................................................................ 12 Box 2. Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database.............................................................................. 21 Box 3. World Bank regional economic report...................................................................................... 25 Box 4. Kuta wetlands project ............................................................................................................... 40


6

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the integrated case study for Fiji carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tier framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Fiji are assessed, and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios are analyzed to examine the proportion of donor activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for Fiji’s coastal mangroves which help reduce coastal inundation and storm surge damages, but are also themselves vulnerable to climate change.

Analysis of recent climatic trends reveals a warming trend in recent decades with country averaged mean temperature increases of 0.9°C and 1.5°C projected by 2050 and 2100. In addition, sea–level is projected to increase, with midrange scenarios yielding predictions of 10.5 cm by 2025 and 50 cm by 2100. The Fijian economy is already quite vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as cyclones, floods, and droughts, with the costs of storm surge impacts for individual events at times as high as a few percent of the annual GDP. A subjective ranking of key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Fiji identifies coastal resources as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resource being affected.

Fiji receives around 30 million dollars of Official Development Assistance (ODA) annually. Analysis of donor portfolios in Fiji using the OECD-World Bank Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database reveals that between 23-36% of development assistance (by aid amount) or 19-23% of donor projects (by number) are in sectors potentially affected by climate change risks. These numbers are only indicative, and the reader is referred to the main report for a more nuanced interpretation. Several donors have been actively involved in efforts to assess the vulnerability of Fiji to climate change risks. However, aside from climate specific projects, donors and the government have generally not explicitly recognized the need to mainstream climate risks in their development work. There have however recently been a series of high level consultations between Pacific Island governments (including Fiji) and donors, and the need to mainstream climate responses in development activity is receiving increased attention.

The in-depth analysis on coastal mangroves in this report however highlights the critical challenges that face the implementation or mainstreaming of no-regrets adaptation measures in Fiji. Mangroves protect against coastal erosion and storm surge damages, but are themselves vulnerable to sea level rise. Mangrove conservation is a no-regrets adaptation given the wide range of other ecosystem services they provide to local communities. There is however a trend for continued loss of mangrove cover in Fiji. One key reason is the significant undervaluation of mangroves which facilitates their conversion for development activity. Successful mainstreaming of even no-regrets adaptation responses in Fiji might therefore require greater policy coherence between climate change and development policies – appropriate valuation of mangrove services is one such example. There is also a need for a coastal management plan that prioritizes mangrove conservation, requiring adequate setbacks of development from the high water line to facilitate mangrove migration, and engaging local communities in these processes.


7

LIST OF ACRONYMS

ADB AusAID BSAP CHARM CIDA CRS CSIRO DAC DHF DFID ENSO EU FLMMA FSP GCM GDP GEF GHG GNI GTZ IGCI IMA IPCC JICA NGO NLTB OA ODA OECC OECD OISCA PICCAP PRSP SOPAC SPCZ SPREP START UN UNCBD UNCCD UNDP UNEP UNESCAP UNFCCC UNITAR USP WWF

Asian Development Bank The Australian’s Government overseas aid program Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan Comprehensive Hazard and Risk Management The Canadian International Development Agency Creditor Reporting System Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Development Assistance Committee Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Department for International Development El Nino/Southern Oscillation European Union Fiji Locally Managed Marine Areas Network Foundations of the Peoples of the South Pacific General Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Greenhouse Gases Gross National Income Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit International Global Change Institute International Marine Alliance Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Japan International Cooperation Agency Non-Governmental Organization Native Land Trust Board Official Aid Official Development Assistance Overseas Environmental Cooperation Center Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization for Industrial, Spiritual and Cultural Advancement The Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Program Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission South Pacific Convergence Zone South Pacific Regional Environmental Programme SysTem for Analysis Research and Training United Nations United Nations Convention on Biodiversity United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Institute for Training and Research University of the South Pacific World Wide Fund for Nature


8

1. Introduction

This report presents the integrated case study for Fiji for the OECD Development and Climate Change Project, an activity jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies and the Network on Environment and Development Co-operation. The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. The Fiji case study was conducted in parallel with five other country case studies in Asia, Latin America, and Africa1.



2. Review of economic, environmental, and social plans and projects of both the government and international donors that bear upon the sectors and regions identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change. The purpose of this analysis is to assess the degree of exposure of current development activities and projects to climate risks, as well as the degree of current attention by the government and donors to incorporating such risks in their planning.

3. In-depth analyses at a thematic, sectoral, regional or project level on how to incorporate climate responses within economic development plans and projects, again with a particular focus on natural resource management.

In the case of Fiji the focus of the in-depth analysis is on conservation of coastal mangroves which are both vulnerable to the climate change and, at the same time, serve as an effective adaptation to ameliorate impacts on other coastal systems. The extent and resilience of coastal mangroves in Fiji also intersects closely with development priorities and policies, and was therefore a good candidate for analysis of issues with regard to mainstreaming of climate responses. This analysis on mangroves was conducted by a case study consultant and involved a field visit and consultation with experts at the University of South Pacific (USP), and representatives from the government, international donors, and NGOs. In addition, two USP experts made a separate contribution to the case study.


Fiji is located at 18°S 175°E in the South Pacific (Figure 1). It comprises over three hundred islands encompassing an area of about 18,000 sq km. The largest island is Viti Levu, which accounts for about 70% of Fiji’s total population of around 800,000. Fiji was first settled, by the Lapita people, about 3,500 years ago. The first thousand years of settlement were concentrated along the coasts. About 2,500 years ago a shift towards more intensive agriculture, expansion of population, and settlement of upland areas took place (Jones and Pinheiro, 2000). Encounters with Europeans began in the 17th century and intensified in the 19th century. Fiji was pronounced a British colony in 1874 and became independent again in 1970. The legal system is based on the British system. Fiji is party to a number of international environmental agreements including the United Nations Convention on Biodiversity and the Kyoto Protocol. 1 Bangladesh, Egypt, Nepal, Tanzania, and Uruguay.


9

Figure 1. Location of Fiji 2

Fiji is a “high island” setting, consisting of mainly steep, volcanic-origin uplands. The uplands slope steeply down to rolling flatland areas suitable for agricultural and other activities, and ultimately to coastal areas defined by sand beaches and coral reefs. Viti Levu, the largest island (10,389 km2), is home to 75% of the population. It is the political and economic center of the country, containing the capital (Suva), the tourism center (Nadi), and much of the land used for sugarcane farming in the country (JICA, 1998). According to the 1996 census, the population of Fiji is 775,077, with an annual growth rate of 0.8% (Fiji Island Statistics Bureau, 2002). Although Fiji has become increasingly urbanized in recent years, over 60% of the population still lives in rural areas (Feresi et al., 1999). While gross national income per capita of US$1,820 exceeds the average of that for lower-middle income countries (US$1,130), 25.5% of Fiji’s population lives below the poverty line (World Bank, 2002). The Gini Index for Fiji stood at 0.46 in 1991, suggesting a somewhat unequal distribution of income (ILO, 2003)3.

2 Map from Bygrave (1998). 3 The Gini coefficient is a number between zero and one that measures the degree of inequality in the



10

Fiji is a small open economy dependent primarily on tourism and sugar production. Real economic growth averaged 2.7% between 1993 and 1996, although it only grew by 1.6% in 1993 because of Tropical Cyclone Kina, highlighting Fiji’s economic sensitivity to natural disasters (Feresi et al., 1999). Fiji essentially pursued inward looking import-substitution policies until the mid-1980s when it made a radical shift towards an export oriented growth strategy. The structure of the Fijian economy however has not changed significantly despite efforts by the government over the past decade and a half. Fiji’s relatively undiversified economy also makes it vulnerable to internal (natural disasters, political instability) as well as external (fluctuating world market prices) shocks. In 1998, GDP was F$3.13 billion (US$1.6 billion), with an exchange rate of F$1.96 to the US$. The GDP is partitioned among services (60%), industry (25%) and agriculture (15%). The major sources of foreign exchange are from sugar production and the tourist industry. There is also a large subsistence sector in the economy. Principal exports are sugar, clothing, and natural resources. Exports go principally to Australia (34%) and the UK (18%). Primary imports are machinery, petroleum products, food, and chemicals, principally from Australia (45%) and New Zealand (15%). Electricity production is primarily from hydroelectricity (80%) with fossil sources making up the balance.

Several key statistics give some insight as to the state of its physical infrastructure and social and human capital, which might condition its potential to adapt to climate change. In 1999, it was estimated that 49.2% of Fiji’s 3,440 km road network was paved, a figure that exceeds the averages both for countries within Fiji’s income group and for countries in the East Asia and Pacific region (World Bank, 2002). Another possible proxy of infrastructure quality, propensity to adopt new technology, and adaptive capacity in general could be prevalence of personal computers within the population, which in Fiji in 2000 stood at 55 per 1,000 people, compared to only 21 per 1,000 in lower-middle income countries (World Bank, 2002). In 1990, the World Bank estimated that some 48.5% of Fiji’s 8.4% gross tertiary enrolment was in sciences and engineering. These are numbers that are comparable to those of other lower-middle income countries, as does Fiji’s gross secondary enrolment of 63% in 1999. Figure 2 provides an indication of how Fiji compares to other lower-middle income countries in terms of four key indices of development.

Figure 2. Development diamond for Fiji

Fiji

Lower-middle-income group


Life expectancy


GNIpercapita

Grossprimary

enro llment

Source: World Bank, 2002.


11

3. Climate: baseline, scenarios, and key vulnerabilities

Fiji has an oceanic tropical climate, with seasonal and inter-annual climate variations. Temperatures range from 23°C to 25°C during the dry season (May to October) and from 26°C to 27°C during the rainy season (November to April). Rainfall distribution is strongly influenced by the terrain of the islands, because leeward sides of mountainous islands tend to be drier and windward sides tend to be wetter. On Viti Levu, for example, rainfall ranges from 3,000 mm to 5,000 mm on the windward side, and from 2,000 mm to 3,000 mm on the leeward side.

Fiji is subject to extreme climate events. Cyclones are a major weather concern: the highest concentration of cyclones in the South Pacific occurs in Fiji’s waters. Cyclones can have a major economic and public safety impact, for example, causing up to 25 deaths and F$170 million (~US $85 million) in one event (Feresi et al., 1999). Periodic droughts are another concern. El Niño events generally position the South Pacific Convergence Zone northeast of the island and result in hotter, drier conditions from December to February and cooler, drier conditions from June to August. The 1997-98 El Niño resulted in one of the most severe droughts in Fiji’s history. Within the past decade, Fiji has experienced a range of adverse climate-related events. These climate events have included several tropical cyclones, with associated flooding and other adverse consequences. Fiji also recently suffered its most severe drought on record (1997-1998). There have also been health issues associated with climatic conditions, including dengue fever outbreaks.

3.1 Climate projections

Key elements of anticipated climate change as reported in Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Fiji (Feresi et al., 1999) are described below. The following were some key conclusions from this assessment for climate change over the 100 year period from 2001 to 2100:

• Temperature changes using midrange emissions scenarios are estimated to increase by 0.5°C by 2025, and increasing to 1.6°C by 2100. Applying a higher emissions scenario, these projected temperature increases grow to 0.6°C in 2025 and 3.3°C by 2100.

• Sea level is projected to increase, with midrange scenarios yielding predictions of 10.5 cm by 2025 and 49.9 cm by 2100, although scenarios based on higher greenhouse gas emissions projections indicated a rise twice as high, that is, over 20cm by 2025 and 1 m by 2100 (Feresi et al., 1999).

• Precipitation changes of appreciable magnitude are anticipated, but the direction of the change is highly uncertain: This is because Fiji’s climate is strongly influenced by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Depending on how climate change influences the position of the SPCZ, Fiji may experience a significant increase or a significant decrease in rainfall in the future (Feresi et al., 1999, Risbey et al. 2002). Most general circulation models4 (GCMs) project increased rainfall, with the estimates derived here being a 3.3% change by 2025 (3.7% with higher emissions of GHG) and 9.7% by 2100 (20.3% with high emissions). Decreases in precipitation (but of the same percentage magnitude as the increased precipitation forecast) are an alternative scenario5.

4 Four out of five GCMs evaluated 5 Derived from one of the five GCMs used by the International Global Change Institute (IGCI) to support

Feresi et al. (1999).


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Although uncertainty exists, in some ways the impacts are unaffected by the sign. There is some evidence to suggest that Fiji may experience more oscillations between El Niño and La Niña type conditions in the coming decades6. This would imply that the future climate in the region will have swings between years that are wetter than currently experienced, followed by years that are drier than experienced on average today. The potential increase in such oscillations between periods of higher and lower precipitation would likely pose a challenge for devising and implementing adaptation strategies.

• Increased climatic variability was also anticipated, meaning that extreme events such as cyclones, floods, and droughts would be more likely to be more severe and, perhaps, more frequent. Based on research performed at CSIRO, Fiji may be subject to increasing variability between El Niño and La-Niña-like conditions. While increasingly severe events are of obvious concern, of particular importance may be the cumulative effect of any increasingly frequent events, such as evidenced in recent years. Under these cumulative events, natural systems may have inadequate opportunity to recover from the adverse effects (for example, cyclones in series, droughts recurring in succeeding years, or cyclones followed by drought periods).

The present study follows a somewhat different approach from Feresi et al. (1999) whose findings are summarized above. Specifically changes in area averaged temperature and precipitation over Fiji are estimated based upon over a dozen recent GCMs using a new version of MAGICC/SCENGEN7. MAGICC/SCENGEN is briefly described in Box 1. First results for Fiji for 17 GCMs developed since 1995 were examined. Next, 11 of 17 models which best simulate current climate over Fiji were selected. The models were run with the IPCC B2 SRES scenario (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000)8. The spread in temperature and precipitation projections of these 11 GCMs for various years in the future provides an estimate of the degree of agreement across various models for particular projections. More consistent projections across various models will tend to have lower scores for the standard deviation, relative to the value of the mean.


MAGICC/SCENGEN is a coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial climate-change scenario generator (SCENGEN). MAGICC is a Simple Climate Model that computes the mean global surface air temperature and sea-level rise for particular emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and sulphur dioxide (Raper et al., 1996). MAGICC has been the primary model used by IPCC to produce projections of future global-mean temperature and sea level rise (see Houghton et al., 2001). SCENGEN is a database that contains the results of a large number of GCM experiments. SCENGEN constructs a range of geographically-explicit climate change scenarios for the world by exploiting the results from MAGICC and a set of GCM experiments, and combining these with observed global and regional climate data sets. SCENGEN uses the scaling method of Santer et al. (1990) to produce spatial pattern of change from an extensive data base of atmosphere ocean GCM – AOGCM (atmosphere ocean general circulation models) data. Spatial patterns are “normalized” and expressed as changes per 1°C change in global-mean temperature. The greenhouse-gas and aerosol components are appropriately weighted, added, and scaled up to the actual global-mean temperature. The user can select from a number of different AOGCMs for the greenhouse-gas component. For the aerosol component there is currently only a single set of model results. This approach assumes that regional patterns of climate change will be consistent at varying levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The MAGICC component employs IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) science (Houghton et al., 2001). The SCENGEN component allows users to investigate only changes in the mean climate state in response to external forcing. It relies mainly on climate models run in the latter half of the 1990s.


6 G. Kenny (IGCI) personal communication, March 2000, based on research reported from the

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) 7 An alternate approach would be to use Regional Climate Models (RCM) such as PRECIS, which provide

higher spatial resolution. A model comparison across RCM results was beyond the scope of the study. 8 The IPCC SRES B2 scenario assumes a world of moderate population growth and intermediate level of



13

The results of the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis for Fiji are shown in Table 1. The climate

models all estimate a steady increase in temperatures for Fiji with little inter-model variance.9 The temperature increases are uniform across seasons and on average somewhat lower than projections for the global mean average temperature under the same IPCC SRES B2 scenario. With regard to precipitation, on average the models project an increase in precipitation for all seasons and years. However, the standard deviation in projections across the various models is consistently higher than the model averaged mean, implying that the estimated change is not significant. Therefore the magnitude and direction of changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. It must also be noted that the models are only capturing trends in seasonal mean conditions, and not any changes in climate variability. In particular, any changes induced in the ENSO cycle may induce a stronger intra-seasonal influence on precipitation than might be captured in the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis.

Table 1. GCM estimates of temperature and precipitation changes for Fiji



Year Annual DJF10 JJA11 Annual DJF JJA 2030 0.6 (0.1) 0.6 (0.1) 0.6 (0.1) +3% (6) +6% (9) +0.5% (6) 2050 0.9 (0.1) 0.9 (0.1) 0.9 (0.2) +4% (9) +9% (13) +0.7% (9) 2100 1.5 (0.2) 1.5 (0.2) 1.6 (0.3) +7% (16) +16%(23) +1.2%(15)

The above results are broadly consistent with the Climate Change vulnerability and adaptation Assessment for Fiji (Feresi et al. 1999) discussed earlier. The magnitude of the temperature increase is similar for the various time periods, and low standard deviations indicate good agreement among the selected models. With regard to precipitation, MAGICC/SCENGEN results indicate increased precipitation, both for the summer and winter, and for the year as a whole. This conflicts somewhat with Feresi et al. (1999) that indicate the possibility of an increase or decrease in precipitation. However, the standard deviations are relatively high, indicating low confidence in such mean values. Therefore, the MAGICC/SCENGEN findings support the more general conclusion by Feresi et al. that while precipitation changes might be expected, confidence in such projections remains very low.

3.2 Priority ranking of impacts and vulnerabilities

The necessity of suitable responses to climate change not only relies on the degree of certainty associated with projections of various climate parameters (discussed in the previous section), but also on the significance of any resulting impacts from these changes on natural and social systems. Further, development planners often need a ranking of impacts, as opposed to a catalogue that is typical in many climate assessments, in order to make decisions with regard to how much they should invest in planning or mainstreaming particular response measures. Towards this goal, this section provides a subjective but reasonably transparent ranking of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for particular sectors in Fiji.

9 Note that each GCM is scaled (i.e., regional changes are expressed relative to each model’s estimate of

mean global temperature change). Since the GCMs have different estimates of change in global mean temperature, this overstates intermodel agreement.

10 December, January, and February – the summer months in Fiji 11 June, July, and August – the winter months in Fiji


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Vulnerability is a subjective concept that includes three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the affected system (Smit et al. 2001). There are no universally accepted, objective means for “measuring” vulnerability. This section instead subjectively ranks vulnerability based on the following dimensions12:

• Certainty of impact. Temperatures and sea levels are highly likely to rise and some impacts can be projected based on these projections. Changes in regional precipitation are less certain. This analysis uses MAGICC/SCENGEN outputs to address relative certainty about changes in direction of mean precipitation. Changes in climate variability are uncertain. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Houghton et al., 2001) concluded that higher maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely, that more intense precipitation is very likely over most areas, and that more intense droughts, increased cyclone wind speeds and precipitation are likely over some areas.

• Timing. When are impacts in a particular sector likely to become severe or critical? This factor subjectively ranks impacts in terms of whether they are likely to manifest themselves in the first or second half of this century.

• Severity of impact. How large could climate change impacts be? Essentially this factor considers the sensitivity of a sector to climate change – adaptive capacity could not be explicitly considered as this was a desk review and primary data gathering on socio-economic variables was beyond the scope of this work.


A score of high, medium, or low for each factor is then assigned for each assessed sector. In ranking the risks from climate change, the scoring for all four factors was considered, but the most weight was placed on the certainty of impact. Impacts that are most certain, most severe, and most likely to become severe in the first half of the 21st century are ranked the highest. Table 2 presents a subjective evaluation of the risks of climate change to the most sensitive sectors of Fiji13.

12 A comprehensive vulnerability assessment would have necessitated collection/aggregation of a range of

socio-economic variables at a sub-national scale, and was beyond the scope of this desk analysis. 13 This ranking is focussed primarily on biophysical risks and does not explicitly include a detailed analysis

of socioeconomic and demographic factors that might mediate vulnerability, which was beyond the scope of this study.


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Table 2. Priority ranking of climate change impacts for Fiji

Resource/ranking Certainty of

impact Timing of

impact Importance of

resource Severity of

impact Coastal resources High Medium High High

Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low High Medium-high

Human health Medium-low Medium-low High Medium-high

Water resources Low Low High Medium-high

Coastal resources are ranked as the greatest concern in Table 2. For an island nation, coastal

resources are highly important. In addition, impacts are expected to be significant and there is a relatively high level of confidence of them occurring. However, significant impacts on coastal resources are unlikely to be immediate and therefore their timing is ranked as medium. Risks to the other sectors appear to be significantly lower and are “clustered” to separate them from the risks to coastal resources. Even though Fiji is a high island setting, it does have significant human settlements and ecosystems in vulnerable coastal areas. Coastal mangroves are particularly threatened, and would be the focus of an in-depth analysis in later sections of this report.

Agriculture is listed next because it is also important and is highly sensitive to climate change. While impacts on many crops are uncertain because precipitation changes are uncertain, the main export crop, sugar cane, is sensitive to increased temperature as well as changes in precipitation. The certainty is medium-low, and it appears that impacts could become significant approximately in the middle or last half of the century.

Human health has the same ranking as agriculture. Certainty of impact is relatively low. Like agriculture, it does not appear that climate change effects would be realized in the first half of this century. However, the sector is very important and severity could be high, although not as high as the effect on coastal resources.

Water resources is ranked last among priority concerns because changes in precipitation are quite uncertain and it does not appear that significant effects would be realized in the near term. The sector however is highly important and severity of the stress could also be high, especially in the case of drought.


Fiji has a three-tier governance structure with central, provincial and local governments, although most decision-making authority rests with the central government through its 16 ministries. The two principal urban areas are governed by a local government (with limited authority), and there is also a provincial administration that falls under the Ministry of Fijian Affairs (UNESCAP 2002). A number of ministries oversee activities with implications for the environment, including the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry, Ministry of Urban Development, Housing and Environment, and Ministry of Lands, Mining and Energy. These as well as other Ministries also oversee critical development priorities that may influence vulnerability to climate change. Several current development patterns, for instance the continued destruction of mangroves and coral reefs, result in ever-increasing vulnerability to climate risks. Good opportunities therefore exist to integrate adaptation priorities (in the context of current disaster risks, climate change and sea level rise) into development planning.


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4.1 Strategic Development Plan

Fiji’s Strategic Development Plan recognizes that “Fiji’s generally benign climate is […] interposed by climatic extremes in the form of hurricanes, cyclones, floods, and drought. These extremes have serious economic, social, and environmental consequences that require prudent macro economic management, proper land use planning, and water and watershed management”. Natural disasters are listed among the key risks to the Fijian economy. The plan notes that environmental vulnerability is not caused just by natural factors, but also by the ineffectiveness with which the country handles serious issues like land degradation, climate change, increasing flood risk, unsustainable exploitation of marine resources, waste management, air and water pollution, and environmental impacts of urbanization.

While the plan pays no explicit attention to adaptation to climate change, it addresses many of the environmental vulnerabilities related to current and future climatic risks. In this area, performance indicators range from the submission of the first National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to a review of the Mangrove Management Plan and controls on coral harvesting.

Outside of natural resources management, the Plan also pays ample attention to disaster risk reduction. The approach is to fully integrate disaster management into national development planning14. Concrete plans range from risk assessments for urban centers and a database of infrastructure disaster mitigation priorities, to the reduction of land degradation and fires and the promotion of traditional cropping systems to enhance the resilience of small communities in the face of disasters. While climate change is not mentioned in this context, the overall approach is an excellent example of fully integrated adaptation planning.

Several other sectors also contain examples of appropriate adaptation strategies, including (in agriculture) the promotion of the production of non-sugar crops and commodities that will enhance food security, (in forestry) the switch to sustainable management strategies, and (in fisheries) a moratorium on reef mining and a review of the Mangrove Management Plan (since depletion of mangroves is already hurting coastal fisheries). Some other sections on possibly vulnerable sectors however, including infrastructure and water resources, pay no attention to climate-related risks.

4.2 Reports to global environmental conventions

Fiji is a signatory to the three Rio Conventions on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Desertification, and has also ratified the Kyoto Protocol. These commitments require Fiji to submit periodic national communications.

4.2.1 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Fiji’s first National Communication to the UNFCCC has not yet been submitted (it is planned for 2003).

4.2.2 UN Convention on Biodiversity (UNCBD) - Fiji Report to the Convention, 1997

Fiji’s ecosystems, particularly at the coast, are at considerable risk due to climate change, and may also be important for protection against its impacts. Nevertheless, Fiji’s report to the CBD does not even mention climate change. The report does discuss other threats to coastal ecosystems. For instance, it

14 According to the Comprehensive Hazard and Risk Management (CHARM) framework, supported by the

regional organization SOPAC.


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notes that coral reefs are at risk from salinity changes and sedimentation due to flooding and cyclones, but also from the negative impacts of coastal development, including seawalls, land reclamation, dredging, and ports, and sedimentation due to clearing of land for agriculture. Similarly, extensive destruction of mangroves is taking place for tourism, farming, and urban development, and remaining mangroves suffer from solid waste pollution and industrial dumping. Aside from the establishment and better management of protected areas, no concrete measures are proposed to protect those resources. A more recent and briefer Second National Report to the CBD (2001) provides no further analysis, and does not even mention mangroves as an issue of concern.

4.2.3 UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) - National Report (2002)

This report notes that while Fiji has yet to prepare its National Action Plan under the CCD, yet has already implemented several desertification control activities, such as soil surveys, a soil and crop evaluation project, the formulation (with the help of the German aid agency GTZ) of a coherent set of national rural land use policies, and (also with German help) promotion of sustainable agro-forestry. The government also recently initiated a program towards integrated coastal resources management. With respect to extreme events, the report notes the El Niño-related droughts (but offers few mitigation measures), the formulation of a Watershed Management Master plan (aided by JICA), and the adoption of a National Plan for Natural Disaster Management. Here, climate change is considered a substantial risk. The main activity that is mentioned in this area is the impact modelling work using the FIJICLIM/PACCLIM model (under the World Bank study for the Regional Economic Report 2000). The report finds that more modelling work is required to be able to plan for specific measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Climate change is one of the issues to be included in future technical work in preparation for Fiji’s national action plan under the CCD.


Fiji receives moderate amounts of donor aid, of the order of US$ 30 million per year, or about 2% of GNI. The largest donors, in terms of overall investments, are Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Figure 3 displays the distribution of this aid by development sector and by donor.


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Figure 3. Development aid to Fiji (1998-2000).

Source: OECD, World Bank

The following sections highlight the possible extent of climate risks to development investments in Fiji, and examine to what extent current and future climate risks are factored in to development strategies and plans.15 Given the large quantity of strategies and projects, this analysis is limited to a selection. This selection was made in three ways (i) a direct request to all OECD DAC members to submit documentation of relevant national and sectoral strategies, as well as individual projects (ii) a direct search for some of the most important documents (including for instance national development plans, submissions to the various UN conventions, country and sector strategies from multilateral donors like UNDP, the World Bank and the ADB, and some of the larger projects in climate-sensitive sectors), and (iii) a pragmatic search (by availability) for further documentation that would be of interest to this analysis (mainly in development databases and on donors’ external websites). Hence, the analysis is not comprehensive, and its conclusions are not necessarily valid for a wider array of development strategies and activities. Nevertheless, there is reasonable confidence that this limited set allows an identification of some common patterns and questions that might be relevant for broader development planning. Analysis of selected donor project and planning documents is provided in Section 5.


circumstances, including weather phenomena and climate variability on various timescales. In the case of Fiji, these risks include the effects of seasonal climate anomalies, extreme weather events, floods and droughts, as well as trends therein due to climate change, and risks due to sea level rise. “Current climate risks” refer to climate risks under current climatic conditions, and “future climate risks” to climate risks under future climatic conditions, including climate change and sea level rise.


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The extent to which climate risks affect development activities in Fiji can be gauged by examining the sectoral composition of the total aid portfolio. Development activities in sectors such as agriculture, infectious diseases, or water resources could clearly be affected by current climate variability and weather extremes, and consequently also by changing climatic conditions. At the other end of the spectrum, development activities relating to education, gender equality, and governance reform will be much less directly affected by climatic circumstances.

In principle, the sectoral selection should include all development activities that might be designed differently, depending on whether or not climate risks are taken into account. In that sense, the label “affected by climate risks” has two dimensions. It includes projects that are at risk themselves, such as investments that could be destroyed by flooding. But it also includes projects that affect the vulnerability of other natural or human systems. For instance, new roads might be fully weatherproof from an engineering standpoint (even for climatic conditions in the far future), but they might also trigger new settlements in high-risk areas, or they might have negative effects on the resilience of the natural environment, thus exposing the area to increased climate risks. These considerations should also be taken into account in project design and implementation. Hence, these projects are also “affected by climate risks”. A comprehensive evaluation of the extent to which development activities are affected by climate change would require detailed assessments of all relevant development projects as well as analysis of site specific climate change impacts, which was beyond the scope of this analysis. This study instead assesses activities affected by climate risks on the basis of CRS purpose codes (see Appendix B, which identifies “the specific area of the recipient’s economic or social structure which the transfer is intended to foster”)16, 17.

Clearly, any classification that is based solely on sectors suffers from oversimplification. In reality, there is a wide spectrum of exposure to climate risks even within particular sectors. For instance, rain-fed agriculture projects might be much more vulnerable than projects in areas with reliable irrigation. At the same time, the irrigation systems themselves may also be at risk, further complicating the picture. Similarly, most education projects would hardly be affected by climatic circumstances, but school buildings in flood-prone areas might well be at risk. Without an in-depth examination of risks to individual projects, it is impossible to capture such differences. Hence, the sectoral classification only provides a rough first sense about the share of development activities that might be affected by climate risks.

To capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of development activities affected by climate change was calculated in two ways, a rather broad selection, and a more restrictive one. The first selection (high estimate) includes projects dealing with infectious diseases, water supply and sanitation, transport infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, renewable energy and hydropower18, tourism, urban and rural development, environmental protection, food security, and

16 Each activity can be assigned only one such code; projects spanning several sectors are listed under a

multi-sector code, or in the sector corresponding to the largest component. 17 The OECD study “Aid Activities Targeting the Objectives of the Rio Conventions, 1998-2000” provides a

similar, but much more extensive database analysis. It aimed to identify the commitments of ODA that targeted to objectives of the Rio Conventions. For this purpose, a selection was made of those projects in the CRS database that targeted the Conventions as either their “principal objective”, or “significant objective”.

18 Traditional power plants are not included. Despite their long lifetime, these facilities are so localized (contrary to, e.g., roads and other transport infrastructure) that climate risks will generally be more limited. Due to the generally large investments involved in such plants, they could have a relatively large influence on the sample, not in proportion with the level of risk involved.


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emergency assistance. The second selection (low estimate) is more restricted. First, it excludes projects related to transport and storage. In many countries, these projects make up a relatively large share of the development portfolio, simply due to the large size of individual investments (contrary to investments in softer sectors such as environment, education and health). At the same time, infrastructure projects are usually designed on the basis of detailed engineering studies, which should include attention at least to current climate risks to the project.19 Moreover, the second selection excludes food aid and emergency assistance projects. Except for disaster mitigation components (generally a very minor portion of emergency aid), these activities are generally responsive and planned at short notice. The treatment of risks is thus very different from well-planned projects intended to have long-term development benefits. Together, the first and the second selection give an indication of the range of the share of climate-affected development activities.

In addition, the share of emergency-related activities was calculated. This category includes emergency response and disaster mitigation projects, as well as flood control. The size of this selection gives an indication of the development efforts that are spent on dealing with natural hazards, including, often prominently, climate and weather related disasters. If an activity falls in the “climate-affected” basket, which does not mean that it would always need to be redesigned in the light of climate change or even that one would be able to quantify the extent of current and future climate risks. The only implication is that climate risks could well be a factor to consider among many other factors to be taken into account in the design of development activities. In some cases, this factor could be marginal. In others, it may well be substantial. In any case, these activities would benefit from a consideration of these risks in their design phase. Hence, one would expect to see some attention being paid to them in project documents, and related sector strategies or parts of development plans. Figures 4 and 5 show the results of these selections, for 1998, 1999, and 2000 using the OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database (Box 2)20.

19 Note however, that they often lack attention to trends in climate records, and do not take into account

indirect risks of infrastructure projects on the vulnerability of natural and human systems. 20 The three-year sample is intended to even out year-to-year variability in donor commitments. At the time

of writing, 2000 was the most recent year for which final CRS data were available. Note that coverage of the CRS is not yet complete. In particular, it should be noted that one of the major donors to Fiji, New Zealand, does not yet report its activities to the CRS. As an indication, New Zealand’s direct bilateral commitments to Fiji amount to about US$ 2.2 million in 2003, with additional support for several regional programs. Overall coverage ratios were 83% in 1998, 90% in 1999, and 95% in 2000. Coverage ratios of less than 100% mean that not all ODA/OA activities have been reported in the CRS. For example, data on technical co-operation are missing for Germany and Portugal (except since 1999), and partly missing for France and Japan. Some aid extending agencies of the United States prior to 1999 do not report their activities to the CRS. Greece, Luxembourg and New Zealand do not report to the CRS. Ireland has started to report in 2000. Data are complete on loans by the World Bank, the regional banks (the Inter-American Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the African Development Bank) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development. For the Commission of the European Communities, the data cover grant commitments by the European Development Fund, but are missing for grants financed from the Commission budget and loans by the European Investment Bank (EIB). For the United Nations, the data cover the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) since 2000, and a significant proportion of aid activities of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for 1999. No data are yet available on aid extended through other United Nations agencies. Note also that total aid commitments in the CRS are not directly comparable to the total ODA figures in Figure 3, which exclude most loans.


21

Box 2. Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database

The Creditor Reporting System (CRS) comprises of data on individual aid activities on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and official aid (OA). The system has been in existence since 1967 and is sponsored and operated jointly by the OECD and the World Bank. A subset of the CRS consists of individual grant and loan commitments (from 6000 to 35000 transactions a year) submitted by DAC donors (23 members) on a regular basis. Reporters are asked to supply (in their national currency), detailed financial information on the commitment to the developing country such as: terms of repayment (for loans), tying status and sector allocation. The OECD Secretariat converts the amounts of the projects into US dollars, using the annual average exchange rates.

Figure 4. Aid amounts committed to activities affected by climate risk (1998-2000)


(high estimate)

36%

64%


(low estimate)

23%

77%


1%

99%


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Figure 5. Share (by number) committed to activities affected by climate risk (1998-2000).


(high estimate)

23%

77%


(low estimate)

19%

81%


4%

96%

Table 3. Relative shares (by amount) of CRS activities for top-five donors in Fiji (1998-2000).

Amounts of activities (millions US$)

Activities affected by climate risks (high estimate)

Activities affected by climate risks (low estimate)

Emergency activities

Donor Amount % Donor Amount % Donor Amount % Donor Amount %

Total 86 100% Total 31 100% Total 20 100% Total 0.5 100%

Australia 33 39% Japan 18 56% Japan 17 87% Australia 0.2 62%

Japan 33 39% EC 12 38% Australia 1 5% UK 0.1 18%

EC 14 16% Australia 1 4% EC 1 5% Finland 0.04 10%

UK 2 3% UK 0.4 1% UK 0.3 2% Japan 0.04 10%

France 2 2% France 0.1 0% France 0.1 0%

Table 4. Relative shares (by number) of CRS activities for the top five donors in Fiji (1998-2000)







Australia 80 44% Australia 19 44% Australia 17 50% Australia 3 43%

France 42 23% France 7 16% France 7 21% UK 2 29%

Netherl. 13 7% EC 6 14% Netherl. 4 12% Finland 1 14%

Japan 11 6% Netherl. 4 9% EC 3 9% Japan 1 14%

EC 9 5% Japan 3 7% Japan 2 6%

In monetary terms, therefore, between one-fifth and two-fifths of all development activities in Fiji could be affected by climate change. By number of projects, the shares are closer to one-fifth.21

21 The number of activities gives a less straightforward indication than the dollar amounts. First of all,

activities are listed in the CRS in each year when a transfer of aid has occurred. Hence, when a donor


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Emergency projects make up 1% of the monetary amount, and 4% of the number of projects. In addition to providing insight in the sensitivity of development activities in Fiji as a whole, this classification also gives a sense of the relative exposure of various donors. Tables 3 and 4 list the results for Fiji, again in the years 1998, 1999, and 200022 .

Given the high share of development activities in Fiji that could be affected by climate risks, one would assume that these risks are reflected in development plans and a large share of development projects. The following sections will examine to which extent this is the case.


Donors are supporting a large number of activities that contribute to a reduction in Fiji’s vulnerability. Most of these activities are not labelled as climate change adaptation, or even targeted at current extreme events, but there may still be opportunities to increase their benefits by explicitly incorporating these aspects. Overall however, many donors have yet to recognize the need to mainstream climate risk management into their regular work in Fiji, as exemplified by the complete lack of attention to these risks in the donor strategy documents that were reviewed.

For instance, attention to climate risks is lacking in several of AusAid’s regional and Fiji-specific planning documents. A report on “practical sustainability” discusses risk management and sustainability of projects, but again, natural hazard related risks are entirely neglected. At the same time, several of AusAid’s own activities, and some other strategic reports, recognize the grave risks posed by, e.g., current cyclones and future sea level rise. In other cases, such as the UNDP/UNPF Multi-Country Programmes Outline, climate change is only mentioned as an environmental issue (albeit one with significant social and economic consequences). However, managing climate change will require a more comprehensive view on climate change: adaptation needs to take place in many different sectors. Similarly, DFID’s regional strategy paper acknowledges the risks of current climate hazards; climate change and sea level rise, and supports regional organizations to deal with them. But again, mainstreaming in DFID’s own work is not discussed.

In other donor strategies however, attention to climate-related risks is missing altogether. For instance, strategies by the ADB and the EU pay no attention to natural hazards of any kind. In the ADB’s case, a clear example of why this neglect is dangerous is provided in the description of Fiji’s economic performance: “The Fiji Islands economy experienced negative growth for the second year in succession in 1998 at -3.2 percent. This was largely due to the effects of a drought on sugar production [and reduced gold production].” While a recent ADB technical assistance project to prepare a new economic analysis for Fiji still largely neglects climate risk management, their new CLIMAP program is intended to develop methodologies to fill that gap, both at the country and project level in all ADB operations in the Pacific.

disburses a particular project in three tranches, that project counts three times in this three-year sample. If the financing for a similar three-year project is transferred entirely in the first year, it only counts once. Secondly, the CRS contains a lot of non-activities, including items like “administrative costs of donors”. Moreover, some bilateral donors list individual consultant assignments as separate development activities. In most cases, such transactions will fall outside of the “climate-affected” category. Hence, the share of climate-affected activities relative to the total number of activities (which is diluted by these non-items) is lower. On the other hand, the shares by total amount tend to be dominated by structural investments (which tend to be more costly than projects in sectors such as health, education, or environmental management).

22 Note that New Zealand does not submit its aid activities to the CRS; hence it is not included in the tables, nor in the totals, listed here. In addition, there are no ADB activities for Fiji in the CRS, while the ADB is also quite a large donor (of both loans and technical assistance) in the country.


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5.3 Climate risk in selected development programs and projects

Fiji’s vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise is reflected in the large number of projects dealing specifically with climate risks. Since the early nineties, several programs such as AusAid’s climate change and sea level rise monitoring program and a coastal zone management project by the Environment Agency of Japan and SPREP, have focused mostly on studies and monitoring. The Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Program (PICCAP) was also quite successful in terms of mapping climate change impacts and identification of possible adaptation options, but achieved few results in terms of implementation and mainstreaming.

However, a transition towards the implementation of risk reduction policies and measures is now taking place. AusAid’s monitoring program is moving into its third phase, which will include planning of response/adaptation measures. In addition, AusAid has established a regional adaptation fund that can finance pilot adaptation projects. CIDA has started a regional climate change project, with a component in Fiji with community level and national mainstreaming components. The World Bank is also highlighting the need to mainstream adaptation concerns into economic planning (in the entire region), and the ADB has established the CLIMAP program, which aims to incorporate adaptation in regular ADB programs and projects, as well as in the ADB’s development dialogue with several countries. Another indication of the rising profile of risk management issues is the implementation of the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission’s (SOPAC) Comprehensive Hazard and Risk Management (CHARM) program, which works from the highest levels of government.

The two infrastructure development projects that were reviewed give a mixed picture. A recent port development project does not explicitly consider climate change, sea level rise, or current climate risks. However, a 1997 road development project did address current climate risks in engineering and environmental assessments, apparently as a matter of routine. In fact, it even considered sea level rise, but concluded that over the 20-year lifespan of the project, the additional 20 mm would be of little consequence relative to current inundation levels.

5.3.1 Development of integrated coastal zone management plan (Environment Agency of Japan/SPREP)

As early as 1992, the Environment Agency of Japan initiated a study program to assess vulnerability and adaptation options in the light of climate change and sea level rise, in Fiji and Samoa. The program was later extended to Tuvalu. The studies were a collaboration of SPREP and the Overseas Environmental Cooperation Center (OECC). Its results were prepared along the lines of the IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation.

5.3.2 PICCAP

The Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Program (PICCAP, started in 1997) was funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), through UNDP. The regional South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) coordinated the efforts of country teams in the 10 participating countries. CC:TRAIN, a UNITAR capacity building project in the Pacific, was integrated into PICCAP. The objectives of PICCAP were (i) assistance to the countries in reporting to the UNFCCC, and (ii) capacity building. Activities included GHG inventories, identification and evaluation of mitigation options, (iii) vulnerability and adaptation assessments (iv) submission of national communications to the UNFCCC, and (v) development of national strategies for mitigation and adaptation. While PICCAP has been successful in many respects, many challenges also remain, including further identification and prioritization of adaptation options, and mainstreaming of adaptation in government planning.


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5.3.3 World Bank Pacific Adaptation Program

Ever since the 2000 Regional Economic Report, the World Bank has been an active player in climate change adaptation in the region (Box 3). In particular, it has promoted the need to see climate change as an economic and social issue, rather than only as an environmental problem. These efforts culmimated in the High Level Consultation: Investing in Adaptation in Nadi, Fiji, in May 2002, attended by ministers and permanent secretaries of finance from most countries in the region. In addition, the World Bank has started a pilot project in Kiribati, which aims to fully integrate adaptation into development, by linking consultations with local communities to the national development planning process in the ministry of finance and the sectoral ministries.

Box 3. World Bank regional economic report

The World Bank currently has no investment projects in Fiji. However, its Regional Economic Report (RER) is more than a basis for project development in the region (which is generally limited, mainly due to the countries’ small sizes). Instead, it also aims to supply knowledge and provide policy advice with in-depth analyses of fundamental socio-economic challenges. The 2000 RER contained a full volume on climate change, which analyzes economic implications of climate risks (and adaptation options) in Viti Levu (Fiji) and Tarawa (Kiribati). Economic costs of climate change in Viti Levu, around 2050, without adaptation, are estimated at between 23 and 52 million US dollars, or 2-4 percent of Fiji’s GDP.

5.3.4 CIDA Capacity Building for the Development of Adaptation Measures in Pacific Island Countries (CBDAMPIC) project

The CBDAMPIC project focuses on four Pacific Island countries (Fiji, Cook Islands, Samoa, and Vanuatu). It aims to build capacity to reduce climate-related risks at the national and community level. Its two main objectives are (i) mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into national and sectoral planning and budgeting processes, and (ii) enhancing communities’ adaptive capacity. The former should be achieved through awareness raising among decision makers and resource managers, the latter through community pilot projects to assess their climate related vulnerabilities and potential solutions. The idea is that bottom-up participatory efforts will feed into national level decision-making processes. In Fiji, the national level component will include the formulation of a climate change adaptation policy, and the incorporation of climate change concerns into the EIA process (to be finalized once a national coordinator has been recruited).

5.3.5 AusAid climate change and sea level rise monitoring program

This program has been operational since 1990, and is now in its third phase. It features monitoring stations in most countries in the Pacific region. While initial efforts focused solely on monitoring, the third phase may also include work on adaptation/response measures.

5.3.6 AusAid vulnerability and adaptation initiative

This initiative, with a budget of A$ 4 million over seven years (and seeking opportunities to co-finance with other donors and inter-governmental agencies) will support regional cooperation to deal with the impacts of climate change, climate variability and sea level rise. So far, it has, among others, provided support for a regional High Level Seminar on adaptation (May 2002), and for a feasibility study for a regional adaptation financing facility. It could also fund capacity building, training, institutional strengthening and awareness raising, as well as pilot activities.


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5.3.7 ADB/CIDA Climate Change Adaptation in the Pacific (CLIMAP) Program

This program, based on a technical assistance grant of US$ 800,000 over 15 months, provided by CIDA) is to mainstream climate adaptation, through risk reduction into development planning and management, primarily in the ADB’s own operations in the Pacific. The initial phase mainly focuses on pilots in the Cook Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia. Eventually however, the program should cover all ADB operations in the Pacific, including those in Fiji.

In the ADB’s own programs, CLIMAP will mainstream adaptation into Country Strategies and Programming, through the preparation of Country Adaptation Mainstreaming Profiles (CAMP), based upon country vulnerability analysis and pipeline screening. At the project level, Project Adaptation Briefs (PABs) will provide project vulnerability and risk ratings; possibly leading to adjustments of Project Preparation Technical Assistance and expansion of Environmental Impact Assessments. At the same time, CLIMAP is intended to raise awareness of ADB staff about adaptation and develop guidelines for ADB Pacific on adaptation mainstreaming.

5.3.8 SOPAC CHARM program

The South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) is implementing its Comprehensive Hazard and Risk Management (CHARM) program in several countries in the Pacific region (with assistance from Australia, in particular the Queensland government). CHARM is based upon internationally agreed risk management standards, and takes a cyclical approach to evaluating and managing risks, integrated in regular policy making. It contains training for officials from a wide variety of sectoral ministries, technical assistance, and institutional strengthening of the national disaster management capacity. In addition, a high-level sensitization component aims to ensure political support for the changes throughout various ministries. In Fiji, the government has adopted the CHARM approach to risk management, and the high-level sensitization workshops have already taken place. Climate change is fully integrated in CHARM’s risk management framework, which looks at risk across all time- and spatial scales23.

5.4 Other development programs and projects

Fiji’s vulnerability to climate related risks are taken into account by many other development programs and projects. The following is a selection of projects which pay special attention to climate-related risks.

5.4.1 ADB Third Road Upgrading Project

Report and recommendation of the President (1997)

The project aims to improve the efficiency of the road sector through road upgrading and rehabilitation, and improvement of the management of road assets and sector resources. The project report shows that climate-related risks were taken into account as part of routine engineering design and environmental screening, and even sea-level rise was considered (as early as 1997).

23 In Kiribati, the other Pacific Island country where a CHARM program is being implemented, the CHARM

approach has been fully integrated with the World Bank Kiribati Adaptation Project, which aims to mainstream adaptation to climate change, climate variability and sea level rise into Kiribati’s national development planning.


27

The “project risks” section mentions the cost overruns and construction delays that occurred in the Second Road Upgrading Project, partly due to poor weather conditions and cyclones. These risks are addressed in the sense that “cost estimates of the subprojects … have been prepared using maximal physical contingencies allowing for changes in construction conditions.” In addition, the ADB will be consulted in the selection of engineers and consultants, and has to approve all engineering and designs for road sections to be upgraded or rehabilitated. Longer-term weather and cyclone risks to the road system itself (rather than project implementation schedules and costs) are not discussed explicitly in the main sections.

However, the more detailed design sections for the subcomponents show that at least frequent current risks are routinely taken into account. The frequent cyclones and storm surges are mentioned prominently in the general description of the environment. Hence, the section on drainage and culverts contains provisions for flooding from minor streams in several areas, as well as for exceptional storm surges in a stretch of road close to sea level. Similarly, the environmental examination addresses drainage problems and the risk of increased sedimentation in sensitive coastal areas and rugged and mountainous areas. In the context of the frequent inundations in low-lying areas during high tide, sea level rise was considered, but deemed to be of minor importance: “During the 20 years of economic life of the road a sea-level rise of only 20 mm is predicted”. The current inundations are addressed by raising road designs by about 1 meter.

5.4.2 ADB Ports Development Project


This project aims to improve the competitiveness of Fiji’s economy by enhancing the port sector facilities and operations of ports in Suva and Lautoka, including an upgrade of wharfs. One of the aims of the upgrade is to ensure compliance with current seismic standards, but risks related to sea level rise and climate change are not mentioned. The occurrence of cyclones is listed in the section on environmental conditions, but is not explicitly addressed.

The “physical resources” sections mention that both ports are protected from ocean swells by the outer barrier reefs. The value of Fiji’s mangroves is also recognized. Suva’s port development is not expected to affect the mangroves in that area. The Lautoka port section mentions that “Several mangrove trees can be seen from the substrate, but appear to be covered in mud, and may not survive… The small area of mangroves at the northeastern corner of the area to be reclaimed comprises 20-30 trees. Because the area is small and trees are fairly short, fauna is not abundant or diverse.” According to the environmental impacts and mitigation table, mangrove destruction in the reclamation area will be compensated by re-plantation elsewhere. Changes in flows will be avoided through proper wharf design.

6. Overview of adaptation responses for Fiji

Section 3.2 of this report developed a priority ranking of impacts and vulnerabilities for Fiji which concluded that coastal resources were the most important, followed by agriculture, human health and water resources. Each of these sectors involves a range of activities, and in many cases these activities will be exposed to multiple stresses stemming from climate change (such as enhanced temperatures and sea-levels, and altered precipitation and extreme event regimes).

There are a range of adaptation strategies available to Fiji to cope with at least some of these anticipated impacts. Some of these are not specifically for adaptation to climate change, and are already in varying stages of implementation within the context of ongoing development activity. The following paragraphs draw on the World Bank Regional Economic Report (2000) that identifies the following


28

adaptation responses for each of the four critical sectors. This summary is followed in Section 7 with an in-depth case study of mainstreaming mangrove management as an adaptation response to several key impacts faced by Fiji.


The adaptation strategies for coastal resources have three major objectives: protection of crucial ecosystem, protection of towns and properties, and land use policies and control of erosion. For the protection of crucial ecosystems, the World Bank report lists five strategies: increase public awareness; prohibit extraction of reef and sand; prevent mangrove removal; control pollution; and control overfishing. In implementing these strategies, involvement of local communities is essential, since in Fiji, the villages are more active in the political system and have more autonomy than in other countries.

For the protection of towns and properties, three measures are identified: engineered structures; setback development from shoreline; and raise structures. Although construction of seawalls is likely to be a major choice in densely populated coastal areas, the construction of seawalls is not a fundamental solution for controlling erosion. Moreover, seawalls can cause inundation at downstream locations. In Qoma, Fiji, the downstream community has reported frequent inundation after the construction of seawalls. Engineered structures like seawalls should be used for the protection of valuable properties which cannot be relocated. Use of setbacks is recommended for new infrastructure. Finally, for land use policies and control of erosion, four measures are considered; coastal hazard mapping; mangrove replantation; engineering works in passages; and groynes. Replantation of mangrove and engineering works in passages are recommended for low islands or atolls, where it is essential to retain overwash sediments. The World Bank assessment concludes that groynes should be used only in key locations, as they cause downstream erosion and require continuing maintenance.

6.2 Agriculture

The World Bank assessment identifies several key adaptation responses for agriculture: traditional weather-resistant practices; agro-forestry, water conservation; flexible farming systems; mapping of suitable cropping areas; and avoidance of cultivation on marginal lands. In Fiji, mangrove land is being reclaimed for conversion to agriculture, principally sugarcane. The loss of mangrove regions increases the vulnerability of coastal areas to climate change. Mapping of soil and climate zones will improve the matching of crops and land use practices, which is highly recommended in high islands like Viti Levu. Agro-forestry is also a suitable strategy in high islands like Viti Levu.

6.3 Human health

Adaptation strategies for human health need to be incorporated into existing public health initiatives. Development initiatives to reduce the vulnerability of the population such as poverty reduction programs, improved sanitation and water supply, waste management, protection of groundwater, and squatter settlement management, are considered to be effective in reducing the enhanced vulnerability that might be experienced from climate change. In addition to these strategies, community-based vector control, improved preparedness (monitoring), and prevention of exposure are necessary for the control dengue fever.

6.4 Water resources

As discussed earlier in Section 3, the impact of climate change on precipitation is highly uncertain. From this regard, adaptation measures should be flexible and take the likelihood of both drought and flood into account. For water source management, the World Bank assessment identifies four measures; leakage control; pricing policies (fee, levies, surcharges); conservation plumbing; and stricter


29

penalties to prevent waste. Leakage control is important as the current rate of water leakage is 29 % in Western Viti Levu. Giving incentives for water conservation is also very important. From this perspective the introduction of water fees and metered consumption will be effective. For catchment management, reforestation, soil conservation and establishment of water authority are considered. Watershed management, for instance reforestation and soil conservation, should be combined with land management in high islands like Viti Levu. For alternative water supply, there are four basic measures; expansion of rain water collection; alternative groundwater use; desalination; and importation. Developing alternative water supply is especially important for arid islands, particularly for atolls. For flood control, diversion of channels, land use control and flood proof housing are effective. Viti Levu is an island with extensive rivers where flood control has special importance. Flood control measures might include widening and diverting channels, retarding basins, and building weirs (JICA 1998).

When choosing adaptation strategies, it is advisable to avoid those which could fail or have unanticipated social or economic consequences if climate change impacts turn out to be different than anticipated (IPCC 1998). From this point of view, strategies which make good use of nature or preserve ecosystem are more favorable than those which construct engineered structures.

Table 5 provides an overview of specific adaptation responses, as well as some information on a range of other parameters including their net benefits, timing, and cultural acceptability.

CO

M/E

NV

/EPO

C/D

CD

/DA

C(2

003)

4/F

INA

L

30

Tab

le 5

. S

elec

ted

exa

mp

les

of

adap

tati

on

mea

sure

s fo

r F

iji (

So

urc

e: W

orl

d B

ank

2000

)

Go

al

Ad

apta

tio

n m

easu

re

No

re

gre

ts?

L

evel

of

imp

lem

enta

tio

n

Bo

tto

m

up

or

top

d

ow

n

Neg

ativ

e E

nvi

ron

men

tal

imp

acts

?

Cu

ltu

rally

ac

cep

tab

le?

T

imin

g

Co

st-

ben

efit

Mo

der

ate

imp

acts

on

co

asta

l are

as

Pro

tect

ion

of c

ritic

al

ecos

yste

ms

Pro

tect

ion

of to

wns

and

pr

oper

ty

Land

use

pol

icie

s C

ontr

ol o

f ero

sion

Incr

ease

pub

lic a

war

enes

s P

rohi

bit e

xtra

ctio

n of

ree

f and

san

d P

reve

nt m

angr

ove

rem

oval

C

ontr

ol p

ollu

tion

Con

trol

ove

rfis

hing

E

ngin

eere

d st

ruct

ures

(su

ch a

s

seaw

alls

) S

et b

ack

deve

lopm

ent f

rom

shor

elin

e R

aise

d st

ruct

ures

C

oast

al h

azar

d m

appi

ng

Man

grov

e re

plan

tatio

n E

ngin

eerin

g w

orks

in p

assa

ges

Gro

ynes

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Y

es

No

No

No

Yes

Y

es

No

No

Gen

eric

S

ecto

r sp

ecifi

c S

ecto

r sp

ecifi

c G

ener

ic

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Site

spe

cific

S

ite s

peci

fic

Site

spe

cific

S

ite s

peci

fic

Sec

tor

spec

ific?

S

ite s

peci

fic

Site

spe

cific

Bot

h B

oth

Bot

h T

op d

own

Bot

h T

op d

own

B

oth

Bot

h T

op d

own

Bot

h T

op d

own

Top

dow

n

No

No

No

No

No

Pro

babl

y U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n N

o N

o P

roba

bly

Pro

babl

y

Yes

M

ay in

crea

se

build

ing

cost

s U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n Lo

ss o

f foo

d U

nkno

wn

Land

tenu

re?

Unk

now

n Y

es

Yes

U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Unk

now

n C

an w

ait

Can

wai

t Im

med

iate

Im

med

iate

C

an w

ait

Imm

edia

te

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

U

nkno

wn

Pos

itive

U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n’

Pos

itive

U

nkno

wn

Pos

itive

(?)

Mo

der

ate

imp

acts

on

wat

er

reso

urc

es

Wat

er r

esou

rce

man

agem

ent

Cat

chm

ent m

anag

emen

t A

ltern

ativ

e w

ater

sup

ply

Flo

od c

ontr

ol

Leak

age

cont

rol

Pric

ing

polic

ies

(fee

s, le

vies

, su

rcha

rges

) C

onse

rvat

ion

plum

bing

S

tric

ter

pena

lties

to p

reve

nt w

aste

R

efor

esta

tion,

soi

l con

serv

atio

n E

stab

lishm

ent o

f a W

ater

Aut

horit

y E

xpan

sion

of r

ainw

ater

col

lect

ion

Alte

rnat

ive

grou

ndw

ater

use

D

esal

inat

ion

Impo

rtat

ion

Div

ersi

on c

hann

els,

wei

rs, e

tc.

Land

use

con

trol

s, fl

ood

proo

f ho

usin

g

Yes

Y

es (

?)

Yes

Y

es (

?)

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Y

es

No

(?)

No

(?)

No

No

(?)

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Gen

eric

G

ener

ic a

nd s

ite

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

and

site

sp

ecifi

c S

ecto

r an

d si

te s

peci

fic

Sec

tor

and

site

spe

cific

S

ecto

r sp

ecifi

c S

ite s

peci

fic

Site

spe

cific

Bot

h

Top

dow

n B

oth

Top

dow

n B

oth

Top

dow

n B

oth

T

op d

own

Top

dow

n T

op d

own

Top

dow

n B

oth

No

No

No

No

No

No

Unk

now

n U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n N

o P

roba

bly

No

Yes

P

robl

emat

ic

Unk

now

n R

esis

tanc

e?

Yes

U

nkno

wn

May

be

Land

tenu

re?

Hig

h co

sts

Hig

h co

sts

Unk

now

n La

nd te

nure

?

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Can

wai

t C

an w

ait

Can

wai

t Im

med

iate

Im

med

iate

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Unk

now

n U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n N

egat

ive

Unk

now

n U

nkno

wn

C

OM

/EN

V/E

POC

/DC

D/D

AC

(200

3)4/

FIN

AL

31

Mo

der

ate

imp

acts

on

ag

ricu

ltu

re

Com

mun

ity s

usta

inab

ility

pr

ogra

ms

Sus

tain

abili

ty p

rodu

ctio

n sy

stem

s

Res

earc

h

Land

use

pol

icie

s

Tra

ditio

nal w

eath

er-r

esis

tant

pr

actic

es

Agr

ofor

estr

y, w

ater

con

serv

atio

n F

lexi

ble

farm

ing

syst

ems

Map

ping

of s

uita

ble

crop

ping

are

as

Avo

id c

ultiv

atio

n on

mar

gina

l lan

ds

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Gen

eric

S

ite s

peci

fic

Bot

tom

up

Bot

h T

op d

own

Top

dow

n T

op d

own

No

No

No

No

No

Yes

U

nkno

wn

Unk

now

n U

nkno

wn

Dis

rupt

ive

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

?

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

(?)

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

Mo

der

ate

imp

acts

on

pu

blic

h

ealt

h

Inte

grat

ed a

dapt

atio

n st

rate

gies

and

con

trol

of

diar

rhea

l dis

ease

C

ontr

ol o

f den

gue

feve

r C

ontr

ol o

f cig

uate

ra

pois

onin

g

Pov

erty

red

uctio

n pr

ogra

ms

Impr

oved

san

itatio

n an

d w

ater

su

pply

W

aste

man

agem

ent

Pro

tect

ion

of g

roun

d w

ater

S

quat

ter

settl

emen

t man

agem

ent

Com

mun

ity-b

ased

vec

tor

cont

rol

Impr

oved

pre

pare

dnes

s (m

onito

ring)

P

reve

ntio

n of

exp

osur

e R

educ

e de

stru

ctiv

e pr

actic

es to

co

ral r

eefs

M

onito

ring

and

publ

ic a

war

enes

s

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Y

es

Yes

Y

es

Gen

eric

& s

ite s

peci

fic

Sec

tor

and

site

spe

cific

S

ecto

r an

d si

te s

peci

fic

Sec

tor

and

site

spe

cific

S

ite s

peci

fic

Site

spe

cific

S

ecto

r an

d si

te s

peci

fic

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Top

dow

n B

oth

Bot

h B

oth

Bot

h

Bot

tom

up

Top

dow

n B

otto

m u

p B

oth

Bot

h

Unk

now

n N

o N

o N

o U

nkno

wn

No

No

Unk

now

n N

o N

o

Yes

Y

es

Unk

now

n U

nkno

wn

Yes

? U

nkno

wn

Yes

D

iffic

ult?

F

ood,

inco

m?

Yes

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Unk

now

n Im

med

iate

Im

med

iate

Pos

itive

? P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

U

nkno

wn

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Mo

der

ate

imp

acts

on

tu

na

fish

erie

s S

tron

ger

regi

onal

co

llabo

ratio

n R

esea

rch

Fle

et m

anag

emen

t

Mul

tilat

eral

agr

eem

ents

B

ette

r E

NS

O fo

reca

stin

g Im

prov

ed tu

na m

anag

emen

t D

iver

sific

atio

n of

dom

estic

flee

ts

Yes

Y

es

Yes

N

o

Sec

tor

spec

ific

Gen

eric

S

ecto

r sp

ecifi

c S

ecto

r an

d si

te s

peci

fic

Top

dow

n T

op d

own

Top

dow

n T

op d

own

Unk

now

n N

o N

o U

nkno

wn

Dis

trus

t?

Yes

Y

es

Pro

blem

atic

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Imm

edia

te

Can

wai

t

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve

Pos

itive

P

ositi

ve


32

7. Mangroves and climate change

In assessing the range of adaptation measures to sea level rise recommended for Fiji a common theme that emerges is preservation of coral reef and mangrove systems to act as buffers against rising seas and storm surges (Nunn et al. 1993; Knight et al. 1997; Moberg and Folke 1999; World Bank 2000). This option is often cast as a “no-regret” adaptation in that it provides economic and environmental benefits that extend well beyond the function served in reducing impacts from climate change. This section discusses in-depth the particular role of mangrove regions in the coastal ecosystem, their vulnerability to climate change, and the opportunities and challenges facing the mainstreaming of mangrove conservation as an adaptation to climate change in Fiji.

Mangroves appear to have evolved during the cretaceous region around the fringes of Australia and New Guinea (Pernetta, 1993). The extent of mangroves in Fiji around the time of human habitation some several thousand years ago is not known, but they presumably fringed much of Viti Levu. Traditional or subsistence Fijian agriculture and fisheries probably led to some decline in mangrove extent. These declines intensified with the onset of commercial agriculture (principally sugarcane) and settlements in the past century. Conversion for agriculture accounts for by far the greatest loss of Fiji’s mangroves. Watling (1986a) estimated that about 6% of Fijis mangroves had been removed for agricultural use by 1986. Since then, development of towns and resorts has increased their share of consumption of mangrove land relative to agriculture. It is not clear what current losses are, with some estimates as high as 30%. Currently, the mangroves on Vitu Levu are said to cover about 23,000ha, which is around 60% of the total land area in Fiji (Smith, 2003), although estimates vary by source. Figure 6 shows a pictorial representation of the current mangrove extent on Viti Levu estimated by the Department of Forestry.

Figure 6. Land use map of Fiji (Viti Levu)


33

7.1 Mangrove structure and function

Following Blasco et al., 1996, “mangrove” is an ecological term referring to a taxonomically diverse assemblage of trees and shrubs that form the dominant plant communities in tidal, saline wetlands along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. A mangrove community in Fiji is shown in Figure 7. Plants comprising mangrove communities belong to many different genera and families, but they have in common a variety of morphological, physiological, and reproductive adaptations that enable them to grow in harsh salty environments. Extensive mangrove communities occur mostly in areas where the water temperature of the warmest month exceeds 24°C. Within these areas they are found where the water is shallow enough and calm enough to allow growth (Nunn et al, 1993). Mangroves also require some fresh water inputs, which is part of the reason they are vulnerable to rising sea levels.

Figure 7. Mangrove extent in Fiji (Viti Levu)

Mangroves frequently occur in conjunction with coral reefs and sea grass beds. Indeed there are strong interactions between them, and also with surrounding terrestrial and open ocean areas. The ecosystem of the coastal zone comprising these elements has been termed a seascape (Moberg and Folke, 1999). This seascape is depicted schematically in Figure 8. Mangroves and sea grass beds filter fresh water discharges from land, promoting the growth of coral reefs offshore. High sediment loads from coastal erosion would be detrimental to coral reefs if not intercepted by mangrove communities before reaching reefs. In turn, coral reefs serve as physical buffers for oceanic currents and waves, creating, over geologic time, a suitable environment for sea grass beds and mangroves (Moberg and Folke, 1999). The detritus from mangroves provides nutrients for the marine environment and supports a wide variety of sea life. Mangroves provide refuge and nursery grounds for juvenile fish, crabs, shrimps, and mollusks, and host a wide variety of bird species (Quarto, 2002).

The broad array of mangrove functions means that they provide a host of services for local communities as well as maintaining the seascape. These services include providing habitat for fish/fisheries, maintaining the integrity of the coastal region and protection from storms, maintaining coral reef communities (which are also very important to local fisheries), sources of wood products, sources of food and honey, sources of medicinal plants, wildlife resources, retainers of carbon, nutrients, sediment, and pollutants, and provide tourism opportunities. Though it is difficult to put a price on these many services, economists have estimated that coastal wetlands provide vast value in services annually. In many parts of the world mangrove forests provide dependable livelihoods and sustain traditional cultures of indigenous peoples (Quarto, 2002). Section 7.5 provides more detail on the implicit or explicit costs ascribed to the range of mangrove services in Fiji.


34

Figure 8. Coastal ecosystem structure

Source: Moberg and Folke, 1999

7.2 Current threats

Mangrove forests are among the most threatened habitats in the world (Quarto, 2002). They are being impacted by pollutants, prolonged flooding from levees, over-harvesting for timber, reclaimed land for agriculture, tourism and coastal development, and the shrimp aquaculture industry. Shrimp farming is responsible for precipitous mangrove declines in some parts of the world (see, for example, the Bangladesh case study of this project), although this is not currently a major factor in Fiji.

In Fiji, mangroves are mostly threatened by excessive exploitation for firewood and building materials, by reclamation of mangrove forest land for other uses (Smith, 2003), by increased sediment loads from upland logging and agricultural operations, and by local pollution. Mangrove land is being reclaimed for construction for urban development and expansion of settlements, and for conversion to agriculture (principally sugarcane). In the upland regions, sugarcane and other developments remove forests from the slopes and tend to clog the rivers with sediment. This changes the hydrological regime of the mangroves, with more frequent flooding and less reliable supply of fresh water. The higher sediment loads place additional stress on mangroves and reefs and the fisheries they support.


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The loss of mangrove regions increases the vulnerability of coastal areas to sea level rise and storms. Indeed, there has been accelerated coastal erosion in regions denuded of mangroves (Koshy and Philip, 2002). Nunn et al., 1993 note that in countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, coastal management plans call for mangrove buffers 50-100m wide, whereas in Fiji, current practice is to maintain a belt only 5-30m wide. The following section considers the likely response of mangroves to climate change.

7.3 Response to climate change

Section 3 outlined climate change scenarios for Fiji that envisage a potential sea level rise of up to a meter over this century; temperature increases of a few degrees; and possible increases in intense tropical storms. These changes, or something approaching them, will constitute a significant impact on the coastal areas of Fiji. It seems clear that in regions of the coast where extensive mangrove forests exist, they will help ameliorate the impacts of the climate change. But the question still remains as to how the mangroves themselves will withstand such changes and whether they would be able to cope with rising sea levels, increased temperatures, and stormier conditions.

The likely response of mangroves to rising sea levels depends on a variety of factors. The relative rates of sea level rise and sedimentation will determine the local change in water depth. Thus, for example, if sedimentation rates exceeded sea level rise rates, then the mangrove region may even expand seaward. In the longer run however, it is more likely that sea level rise rates will dominate, in which case mangroves would have to retreat shoreward. Whether they actually do retreat shoreward would then depend on how fast the rate of rise is, and whether there is available appropriate land to retreat to. Some evidence from mangroves in India and Bangladesh suggests that when the rate of sea level rise is not too dramatic (mm/yr) mangroves are able to adapt to the changes and colonize suitable shoreward areas (Blasco et al., 1996).

The ability of mangroves to colonize shoreward regions is likely to vary from place to place depending on several factors. From studies across mangrove forests in different regions, it appears that each species of mangrove lives in ecological conditions that approach the limit of tolerance with regard to the salinity of the water and soil, and the inundation regime (Blasco et al., 1996). Inundation from sea level rise would result in increased salinity. Some mangrove stands may readjust to new conditions, and some may not. Both responses have been observed, with massive mortalities in some cases occurring as a result of only small changes in hydrological regime. Mangroves may also be threatened by increased sediment from storm surges and by coastal erosion. Further, it is still an open question whether mangrove survival or migration will occur with ample success to preserve their ecosystem functions.

Mangroves are an integral part of the coastal seascape comprising coral reefs, sea grasses, mangroves, and shore. The health of mangrove forests will also depend on how other components of the seascape respond to climate change. In this regard, the prime threat seems to be to coral reef systems (Hoegh-Guldenberg et al., 2000). Rising sea surface temperatures have lead to coral bleaching events and mass mortality of coral reefs in some places. Some coral bleaching has already occurred in Fiji (World Bank, 2000). If this trend continues with climate change and Fiji’s coral reefs were to die off, this would have profound impacts on the seascape. Coral reefs help create sheltered regions in which mangrove communities can establish themselves. Without this protection, mangroves will be further threatened by increased exposure and could follow coral reefs into extinction. Rising sea level and rising temperature could therefore have a compounding adverse impact on the viability of mangroves in Fiji.

Thus, mangroves are both part of the solution to climate change in Fiji (by stabilizing and protecting coastal regions and providing economic, social, and environmental resources) and potentially threatened by climate change (through inundation, over-sedimentation, ecosystem breakdown, and loss of reef cover). Mangroves function as an integral part of the economic fabric of Fiji via fisheries and timber


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and they are already under threat from overexploitation for timber and from coastal development. The next section reviews the priorities and plans that are in place to manage coastal regions and development in Fiji.

7.4 Review of plans bearing on mangrove regions in Fiji

By being entwined in such a vast and heavily used coastal ecosystem that supports a variety of cultural and commercial enterprises in Fiji, there are a range of programs and agencies that have a bearing on mangrove regions. These programs span the range from international agreements, to governmental agency programs, to local and community initiatives. This section provides a summary of these programs and plans as they relate to mangrove regions.

7.4.1 International agreements

The international initiative pertaining most directly to mangrove regions is the Ramsar convention. Mangroves are classified under wetlands in the Ramsar convention, which is the main international body set up to manage them. The Convention on Wetlands, signed in Ramsar, Iran, in 1971, provides the framework for national action and international cooperation for the conservation and wise use of wetlands and their resources. There are presently 135 Contracting Parties to the Convention. Fiji is not a member of the Ramsar Convention; however efforts to join are currently underway in Fiji. Priority sites for Fiji’s entry into the convention are being identified, and there is every expectation that Fiji’s application will be successful. This will provide additional focus and protection on the priority sites, though it does not necessarily guarantee any broader protection for Fiji’s mangrove regions.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and related programs provide a range of initiatives that may have a bearing on Fiji’s ability to manage its mangrove regions. The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) is a potential source of project funding. The global change SysTem for Analysis Research and Training (START) initiative provides opportunities for capacity building and training. The Pacific branch of START is based at the University of the South Pacific (USP) in Suva and is well placed to fulfill this kind of role. Monitoring, management, and replanting of mangroves require a range of expertise ranging from working with village communities to writing project proposals. Projects such as START are aimed at enhancing capacity in this regard.

7.4.2 National planning

National plans and jurisdiction on activities related to Fiji’s mangroves are held in a number of governmental departments. These include Environment, Fisheries and Forests, Town and Country Planning, the Lands Department, and Fijian Affairs. All land in Fiji above the mean high water mark belongs either to the Crown (9%), Fijians as Native Land (83%), or private owners as freehold land (8%) (Waltling, 1986a). The land encompassing Fijian villages is owned by the villagers (part of the 83%). Village communities span much of the coast of Viti Levu and are an integral part of mangrove planning. All land below the mean high water mark is Crown land, though native rights to resources on this land are recognized. All decisions made entailing development of mangrove land in Fiji are made by the Lands Department. Where this land abuts village land, village interests would be considered in oversight from boards within Fijian Affairs.


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7.4.2.1 Lands Department

The Lands Department can issue a foreshore development lease under the State Lands Act when the Minister of Lands deems that such development would not create substantial infringement of public rights. The process of developing a mangrove region for other uses currently entails:

• A developer submits a proposal to the Lands Department

• Lands then invites comment from other government ministries and departments

• An arbitration process is commenced to assess a recompense sum for loss of the mangrove and services

• Public comments are sought

• A final determination is made and a foreshore development lease may be granted.

The decision process does not recognize any specific formal laws related to mangrove management, though there is a Mangrove Management Plan for Fiji (Watling, 1986a; Watling, 1986b), which arose from the recommendations of a Mangrove workshop held in Suva, February, 1983. Following this workshop the Cabinet of the Fiji Government endorsed the formation of a Mangrove Management Committee and directed that at Mangrove Management Plan be drawn up. The Mangrove Management Plan introduced a philosophy of classifying mangroves in terms of their uses and importance. It also prescribes more specific management guidelines for specific river deltas and town locales, which have generally not been implemented.

7.4.2.2 Department of Fisheries and Forests

The resources of the mangroves fall within the jurisdictions of several groups. Village communities may use the mangrove trees, plants, and fisheries for their own purposes. The Department of Fisheries and Forests controls all non-village use of mangrove fisheries and forests. From 1933 mangroves were designated as forest reserves and were managed by Forestry, but that designation was revoked in 1974 and control was handed over to Lands (Watling, 1986a).

7.4.2.3 Department of Environment

The Department of Environment has promoted two bills relevant to management of mangrove regions: the Fiji Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan (BSAP) and a sustainability bill. The Fiji Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan was passed in parliament in 2003. The BSAP arose in part because Fiji is party to the Convention on Biodiversity, wherein it is obligated to take measures to protect its biodiversity through the formulation of a strategy and action plan. The plan commits Fiji to the protection and conservation of a variety of life forms, plants, animals, micro-organisms, genes they contain, and the ecosystems they form. The BSAP contains provisions to try to ensure the participation of landowners and traditional fishing right owners in documenting traditional knowledge of biodiversity and its uses and the development of their own local management strategies. The BSAP contains a section on mangroves and is likely to raise their profile and importance in the political system. The BSAP also provides estimates for the value of mangrove services, which are discussed in section 7.5.1. The preparation of the BSAP was funded by the Global Environmental Facility, and it will be implemented by the Department of Environment.

Another proposed legislation that is relevant to mangrove management is the Sustainability Bill which has been pending for some years and has still not yet been passed in Parliament. The Bill may provide some support to mangrove management if passed, although it does not contain specific mangrove provisions. The bill was constructed largely at governmental level with apparently little input from the village level. It is currently being examined by the Fijian Affairs board.


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7.4.2.4 Fijian Affairs

The Ministry of Fijian Affairs, Culture, and Heritage oversees a range of issues and legislation related to native Fijians. The Ministry encompasses a set of organizations who oversee the development of Fijian affairs. These include the Native Lands and Fisheries Commission, the Fijian Education Unit, the Institute of Fijian Language and Culture, and the Centre for Appropriate Technology and Development. The statutory authorities within the Ministry are the Fijian Affairs Board and the Native Lands Trust Board. Both of these authorities are relevant to mangrove management.

The Native Land Trust Board (NLTB) provides custodianship for the 83% of land held by Fijians and is responsible to ensure that land and natural resources are used and managed in a wise and sustainable manner and that unique and important features of the Fijians natural and cultural heritage are set aside and protected for the benefit of the current and future generations. Given the integral role of mangrove regions in village life, subsistence, and affairs, there is a clear mandate to protect them under the aegis of the NLTB. Most mangroves are associated with reserve land, which has been specifically put aside for the use, maintenance or support of the indigenous landowner. Non-reserve land is native land outside of villages which is often under lease or license, typically for agricultural uses. Despite its apparent mandate to conserve the resources of reserve lands, the NLTB has not been notable in preventing the ongoing decline in mangrove extent. The Fijian Affairs Board oversees legislation for consistency with the objectives of the Fijian Affairs Act. Similarly, conservation of mangrove resources has not been a manifest objective of that oversight.

7.4.3 Non State Actors

While decisions on large scale management of mangroves and conversion of mangrove land to other uses are made primarily at the national (governmental) level, the day to day use and management of mangroves takes place primarily on a local level, principally in village communities. A range of organizations also work in partnership with the village communities.

7.4.3.1 Villages

Village communities in Fiji have considerable autonomy over use and management of their land and resources. The villages have managed the mangrove resources in a sustainable manner for several thousand years. That has not changed, though the broader social, cultural, and economic contexts in which the villages are embedded in Fiji has changed radically since colonization. The subsistence economy of the villages continues (rooted substantially in mangroves for many coastal villages), but interacts with, and is impacted by, commercial activities and relationships. That has consequences for the ability of the village communities to continue to manage mangroves in the same way. Further, the environmental context has also changed radically since colonization, with degradation of upland regions, pollution, and outright loss of mangroves (see section 2.3.3). Thus, the relationships of the villagers to the mangroves are changing. This requires new initiatives for conserving, protecting, and in some cases, replanting of village mangroves. It may also require adaptation to irreversible loss of mangroves and their services when replanting of mangroves is not possible.

The participation of village communities is likely to be critical to the success and sustainability of efforts to manage and preserve mangrove ecosystems. The villages manage their own environs and also work in consultation with the broader Council of Chiefs in managing their affairs. The villages however are hampered by chronic lack of resources, which are alleviated in some cases by partnerships with outside NGOs, which are reviewed in the next sub-section.


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7.4.3.2 NGOs

As one of the main commercial centers of Pacific Island nations, Fiji is home to a number of international Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). Some of these have interests and programs on climate change and/or mangrove management. These include the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Greenpeace, and the Organization for Industrial, Spiritual and Cultural Advancement (OISCA). WWF and OISCA in particular have programs in partnership at the village level.

OISCA is based in Sigatoka on Viti Levu and runs training programs on agro-forestry. One element of this entails replanting mangroves with villages in the Sigatoka region (see Figure 9). Significantly, these replanting efforts have proved successful, where some others have not. Part of this success was attributed to the close partnership with villagers in designing and operating the programs, attending village meetings and engaging in traditional decision-making and reconciliation processes in the villages. Success was also partly attributed to the development of expertise on how to carry out the replanting. For example, this entails cultivating young mangrove plants in nurseries to the point where they have a better chance of establishing themselves in the tidal zone.

Figure 9. OISCA mangrove replanting area, Sigatoka

WWF is based in Suva and is engaged in a number of community based programs on wetlands and marine areas. One of their wetlands projects is being carried out in partnership with Fijian women in Navakosobu and Korovuli (Box 4). This project aims to restore wetlands supporting the Kuta plant, which is used in weaving. WWF is working with other organizations [USP, Foundations of the Peoples of the South Pacific (FSP), and International Marine Alliance (IMA)], the ministry of Fisheries and Forests, and village communities to conserve marine areas through the Fiji Locally Managed Marine Areas Network (FLMMA). The FLMMA has nine project sites in Fiji, of which five are on Viti Levu. Each site works to develop a community-based marine resource management plan. Limits on harvesting marine resources are set, and this is followed by monitoring, evaluation, and learning programs. The projects are driven by the local communities on the one hand, but provide opportunities for them to assess their efforts, identify gaps, and access information and resources in other communities and outside organizations in the FLMMA.


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Box 4. Kuta wetlands project

The Kuta wetlands project being carried out by village women in conjunction with WWF, USP, and the Fijian Government is illustrative of the type of project that can be of considerable benefit to mangrove wetlands as well. The project is run by village women to restore threatened wetland habitat that supports the kuta plant. The kuta plant is used in weaving by the women and is a source of local income. The freshwater wetland habitat of the kuta plant has been increasingly threatened by deforestation, weed infestation, and agricultural run-off. Like mangrove wetlands, kuta wetlands are an important resource to village communities that are under threat. Where efforts to save and restore kuta wetlands have been successful, there may be lessons for mangrove wetlands.

The kuta plant grows in ponds surrounding village communities. It is harvested from the ponds, dried in the sun, flattened, and then woven into fine mats. Where kuta has come into short supply due to destruction of its habitat, some villages have substituted coconut palm leaves. However, they are not as supple or appropriate for weaving as the kuta.

WWF began working with the women of Navakosobu and Korovuli in Vanua Levu to help record traditional knowledge of the kuta plant. In the project areas, WWF calculates that about half the forest cover has been lost since 1978, principally to sugar cane and roads. Large ponds that once surrounded the project villages have been greatly reduced in size, silted, and weed choked. As the wetland habitat has changed, introduced species such as the pink water lily have out-competed kuta and other native wetland species. The water lily is better able to grow in the disturbed habitat that has fewer native species and a greater input of nutrients from erosion and agricultural runoff.

The communities in Navakosobu and Korovuli have been working to restore their ponds, clearing the natural waterways of silt and debris, uprooting water lily from the ponds, and replanting kuta plants. To prevent further silting of the ponds, the villagers are planting native tree species (logologo and lauci) around the edges of the ponds.

While these efforts have been successful so far, Ghazanfar, 2001 argues that the Kuta project has restored the kuta species, but not yet the habitat that supports it. Ghazanfar, 2001 notes that the ponds need constant weeding and management because the broader degradation of the wetland ecosystem has not been addressed. Thus conditions still favor the water lily and the threat to kuta has not been removed. Ghazanfar, 2001 proposes that a more effective approach is to ``first recover the functional values and self-sustaining characteristics of the original habitat''. This would entail more broad-scale reintroductions of native species into the kuta wetlands, and reductions in soil erosion and agricultural runoff into the wetland. That would then create a more conducive and sustainable environment for a weeding and replanting program. The clear parallel to mangrove conservation here is that mangrove ecosystems are also threatened by upland erosion, silting, and agricultural runoff. If the broader ecosystem is not considered, then efforts to reintroduce mangroves into the inter-tidal zone may face similar issues of ongoing maintenance and decline.

Community response to the Kuta project has been enthusiastic and there has been an upsurge in interest in the kuta and its habitat. Communities are realizing that the resource is being lost, and the Kuta project represents an achievable response that can start to turn that around on a village-by-village basis. WWF and the Ministry of Agriculture have held training exercises for agricultural officers to better understand the importance of the kuta plant and to raise awareness of its precarious state. Thus, the importance of maintaining kuta habitat is now signaled at governmental levels, no doubt in part due to the success of the kuta projects. However, the word of caution from this project seems to be that long term sustainable management of the resource (kuta or mangrove) may require a more systematic view of ecosystem restoration than is encapsulated on a project-by-project basis.

Though not strictly an NGO, the University of the South Pacific (USP) plays some of the same roles as NGOs in working with local communities. The University draws together researchers and students from across the South Pacific and beyond and is key in developing a capacity for research, monitoring, and training in a range of areas, mangroves included. USP and its staff are engaged in many of the current efforts to manage mangroves sustainability in Fiji. This includes obtaining membership in the Ramsar convention for Fiji, developing a database on mangrove resources, training members of the community, coordinating research, and focusing international efforts appropriately.


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7.4.3.3 Donor organizations

Among the main donor organizations in Fiji are those associated with the governments of Japan [Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)] and Australia (AusAID). JICA supports a range of projects in Fiji and has identified environmental protection as one of the priority areas for its work in Fiji. While JICA has set its own general priorities, its project funding tends to follow requests on more specific priorities from the Fiji government. Thus, if mangrove management and conservation is not identified specifically by the government as a priority, then it is less likely to attract support from JICA.

The AusAID program for Fiji aims to reduce poverty through the promotion of stability and more equitable distribution of resources and government services to the people of Fiji. The 20022003 budget is $AUD 19.7 million. The programs stated goals do not foreground climate change, though the stated environmental objectives include measures to mitigate the impact of economic activity and population growth on land and marine environments. This provides scope for mangrove support. As for JICA and other donor programs, AusAID indicate that they attempt to align their support to objectives and programs identified by the Fiji government.

This raises the question as to whether climate change, sea level rise, and management of mangrove regions is specifically identified by the Fiji Government as a priority. There is no simple answer to this question. It is difficult to say how much attention is too little, and how much is too much when climate impacts are balanced along with a raft of development issues. Regardless, anecdotal evidence based on consultation with stakeholders during a field visit by a case study consultant suggests that sea level rise and mangrove conservation are not central to the government agenda. Other indications seem to confirm this. For example, the Fijian Government Ministry of Finance and National Planning recently produced a 216 page report 20 year development plan (2001-2020) for the enhancement of participation of indigenous Fijians and Rotumans in the socio-economic development of Fiji (Fiji Government, 2002). There is no mention of mangroves or sea level rise in this report. To be sure, the report is not about those issues, though one could well imagine sea level rise impacts and mangrove resources playing a role in the socio-economic development of Fijians over this period.

7.4.4 Sea level rise planning

Current policy with regard to sea level is to maintain a 30m setback of any development from the high water mark. This appears to be a guideline only though, and has not been enacted. Indeed the main road along the coral coast runs much closer to the high water mark than 30m in places (see for example Figure 10). There is concern to formalize the 30m setback, and it is expected to be included in the sustainability bill.


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Figure 10. Stretch of road near Suva close to the high water mark

Regardless of the state of policy on sea level rise, sea level has risen in Fiji about a centimeter per decade over the last century. Coupled with a loss of mangrove protection, this has lead to significant coastline erosion in parts of Viti Levu. Coastal villages, towns, and tourist resorts have sought to protect themselves against these losses. Towns and tourist resorts have often responded by building sea walls. Similarly, roads and other infrastructure have been protected by sea walls when threatened by shoreline recession (Figure 11). Villages have also responded to shoreline losses by building sea walls, in part encouraged by government support for sea wall construction in the past. The attitude of both government and villages toward sea walls has changed however. Building of sea walls is now recognized as having clear costs. The walls may breach in storms and need reconstruction. They need ongoing maintenance. More troubling though is the fact that the beaches are lost when the walls are constructed. Further, the areas of coast around the sea walls seem to be more subject to erosion as a result of the walls. This observation has been reported by villages neighboring tourist resorts that have constructed sea walls, and is a source of some tension also. With the loss of beach and a physical barrier in place, the environment is not conducive to mangroves, and fisheries are also likely to suffer.


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Figure 11. Seawall along the coral coast

Some village communities now favor the use of mangroves for protection rather than construction of sea walls. While government policy is no longer geared toward construction of sea walls, village communities who choose to build walls may do so themselves. Construction in villages is governed by the Fijian Affairs Act, not by the national development plan, and so the 30m setback guideline does not apply. With the shift in consciousness at village level toward mangrove conservation, this indicates considerably more flexibility and potential in managing sea level rise than is indicated by the apparent paucity of explicit governmental policy on sea level rise.

One of the key issues for maintaining mangrove regions in response to sea level rise is whether the mangroves are able to migrate shoreward into appropriate habitat as the intertidal zone moves further in. Where sea walls and other developments and obstructions have been put in place, mangroves will be precluded from migrating and will be lost. Retention of wetland regions such as mangroves is likely to require a set of strategies to manage development in the coastal zone and shore regions. This issue is taken up in the next section.

7.5 Incorporating climate responses into development plans

Some climate change is projected to occur over the coming decades regardless of global mitigation efforts. In Section 3 it was noted that projected changes include rising sea levels, warming, possible damage to coral reefs, more intense storms, and storm surge damages to the coast of Fiji. Fiji will have to adapt to some of these impacts. Adaptation to sea level rise and coastal impacts can take two main forms: holding back the sea or allowing the shoreline to retreat. The former entails construction of physical barriers such as walls or raising the land. The latter can entail use of mangrove wetlands to provide a buffer against storm damages. Physical barriers eventually eliminate the beach, wetlands, and other inter-tidal zones (Titus, 2000). A detailed cost-benefit analysis of all the options has not yet been carried out for Fiji. Where these kinds of analyses have been carried out for other countries/regions, the general sense is that wetland protection and allowing wetland migration with a retreating shoreline is a more cost-effective strategy than building sea barriers or rebuilding the land (Marine State Planning Office, 1995).


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In Fiji there are currently two competing trends in this regard. At various levels of government and in local communities there is a preference emerging for managing sea level rise via conservation of mangrove communities. Countering that, the actual trend in Fiji in recent decades (and through the last century) is toward destruction of mangrove regions and a diminishing of mangrove coverage. The reasons for that are complex, but in short, mangroves are losing out to development pressures on land from agriculture, resorts, and towns.

The benefits from mangrove conservation tend to accrue either to small communities with not much voice in government, or else to future generations with no present voice. The benefits from mangrove destruction tend to accrue to developers, companies, or towns with more direct access to government and who can demonstrate more tangible and immediate rewards by reclaiming mangrove land. On the one hand, mangrove conservation is a no-regrets adaptation to climate change in that it makes sense to do in providing services and protection irrespective of whether climate changes or not. On the other hand, there are distributive consequences to mangrove destruction and conservation (those who gain from destruction are not the same as those who pay the ultimate costs). Thus, there are political barriers to conservation even for an apparent no-regrets adaptation. Another factor working against conservation of mangroves is that they can be removed very rapidly, whereas it takes many years to re-grow mangrove communities. These features of the problem are similar for deforestation in most parts of the world. The devaluation of mangrove services is illustrated in cost/benefit studies of these services in Fiji.

7.5.1 Valuation of mangrove services

Mangroves provide a range of goods and services to local communities. Not all of these can be costed, but some efforts have been made to attribute value to many of these services. Smith (2003) the following values (in F$) for mangroves/ha/year for Viti Levu in each of the designated categories: subsistence fisheries (400-700), commercial fisheries (150-300), recreation (600), medicinal plants (400-700), habitat functions (150-300), and raw materials (150-500). This yields a value from these services of about F$2000-3000/ha/year (or roughly US$1000-1500/ha/year). This valuation does not include a number of mangrove services which could not be costed, including: ornamental fish, biodiversity (other than medicinal plants) non-use (existence and bequest) values, fuel wood, non-wood products, importance to marine ecosystems, importance to marine recreation, and importance to inland groundwater. While Smith (2003) does not determine a value for coastal protection, the article cites parallel studies for other regions which imply a value of about F$3000/ha/year. This may be an overestimate for Fiji however, as the assessment of potential land lost to erosion on Viti Levu by sea level rise in World Bank (2000) corresponds to about F$1000/ha/year. Taken together, these figures seem to imply a rough estimate of mangrove services for Viti Levu of from F$2000-5000/ha/year (US$ 1000-2,500/ha/year).

The Fiji Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan (BSAP) meanwhile ascribes values of F$2400/ha/year for food, nutrient, and habitat services, and F$2500/ha/year for disturbance regulation (coastal protection) from mangroves, yielding a figure in the vicinity of F$5000/ha/year which is broadly consistent with Smith (2003). While neither estimate captures all possible values from mangrove services, but they each do include the more salient mangrove services associated with fisheries, habitat, and coastal protection.

The above estimates differ from the valuation used by the Departments of Lands which took over operational control of the mangroves in 1974. The transfer of authority to Lands also included a provision that Lands provide for re-compensation for loss of fishing rights. Thus Lands levies a compensation to be paid to villages when mangrove land is taken. In typical cases this seems to amount to a one-time negotiated payment – not explicitly based on any valuation of mangrove services - in the vicinity of F$300,000-400,000 for an area of about 70ha of mangrove lost. That is, about F$5,000/ha. To be clear, that is a one-time only payment, not F$5,000/ha/yr as in the above valuations. To convert the Lands implicit valuation of mangrove services to a value /ha/yr, assumptions need to be made with regard to the


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time frame for provision of mangrove services. About the most generous assumption one could make for Lands is that the mangrove could in theory be replanted and replaced in a couple of decades, leading to a value of F$250/ha/year (US $ 125/ha/year) or 1/20th of the values ascribed above. In practice of course the mangroves are not replanted and one might reasonably assume a much longer time scale for the loss of mangrove services. The longer the time scale viewed, the lower the valuation of Lands relative to the BSAP.

Conversely, if a village were compensated for 100 years of loss of mangroves at the BSAP rate, the amount of compensation would be in the vicinity of F$30,000,000 not F$300,000. The former value would be lowered by discounting, but that does not change the basic point that the value used by Lands might be a significant undercompensation in considering tradeoffs between mangrove services and other development uses of mangrove land. This in effect represents a subsidy for conversion of mangrove land to development use.

7.5.2 Issues in mainstreaming mangrove management

7.5.2.1 Capacity enhancement

There is no single reason why mangroves services are undervalued and mangrove extent has declined. One might argue that there is a lack of capacity in place to provide effective management and conservation. In Fiji, however, there is already considerable capacity in place, and the issue is more capacity enhancement than development (Koshy and Philip, 2002). For example, Fiji has data and knowledge collection programs for mangroves in place via the National Trust and initiatives at USP. There are a series of active partnerships in place between villages and a sizeable NGO community directed at mangrove conservation. There is interest from donors and capacity within government. The coastal villages possess a wealth of traditional knowledge on mangroves, and USP provides ongoing research. Each of these groups needs more resources of course, but the basic capacity framework is already in place.

7.5.2.2 Governmental actions

Since the government is the primary organizational institution of the state, the main access point for mainstreaming approaches to mangrove management is via government agencies. As noted in sections 3 and 4.1, government has not prioritized mangrove conservation and management. The two pieces of current legislation that may help in this regard are the biodiversity plan (BSAP), which was passed, and the sustainability bill, which is yet to be passed. Since the BSAP contains provisions which value mangrove services at levels significantly over the valuation currently used by the Lands department, it will be interesting to see whether Lands alters its valuations in accordance with the BSAP. If this is done, it would provide a signal that mangrove conservation and coastal impacts are a priority. Conversely, if it is not followed it will also send a fairly clear signal that priorities have not changed.

The mangrove management plan that informally adopted for Fiji (Walting 1986a; Walting 1986b) has not been effectively implemented thus far. While there might a need for a new plan that targets the role of mangrove management in forestalling and protecting against sea level rise impacts, such a plan would only be useful if it were accompanied with effective implementation measures. Since mangrove conservation runs headlong into other coastal development projects related to settlement, agriculture, and tourism, it would be appropriate to situate mangrove management inside a framework for broader coastal management. Such a framework would need to recognize the need to fortify the coast in areas vital to protect and to allow it to recede in other areas (as did Walting 1986a; Walting 1986b). Over the long run, attempts to fortify the coast are likely to prove more expensive than allowing it to recede, so there is clearly a tradeoff. There is also a tradeoff in finding the right level of development use and conservation


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use. Too little conservation of mangroves will lead to faster loss of coastal land and bigger impacts from storm surges.

Part of the solution, and hence the planning vision, must include a view of mangroves as integral components of development projects. The difficulty however is that mangroves will need to be able to migrate shoreward as sea level rises. If mangroves face shoreward barriers such as settlements, roads, or walls, then migration is precluded. Protection from mangroves and their services will then be lost as rising sea level strands them. In order to provide mangroves with the ability to migrate, some setback needs to be declared that prohibits long-lived development structures within the likely migration zones of wetlands. The exact amount of setback required would depend on how much sea level rise is planned for. The current policy of a 30m setback seems inadequate for the kinds of sea level rises outlined previously.

7.5.2.3 Community and Non-governmental actions

Since much of the coastal land of Fiji is part of village communities, part of the balance in finding tradeoffs between mangrove conservation and conversion to other uses lies with the village communities. As such, these communities should be an integral part of the coastal planning process. In the case of mangroves in Fiji there are additional factors at play that may allow for more favorable outcomes than in a typical case of forest conservation. One is that mangrove conservation has clear and well recognized benefits to the village communities in the present context (fisheries, timber, shoreline stabilization, reef protection, etc.). Though perhaps less well recognized, mangrove conservation is likely to be of immense value in managing sea level rise impacts in future contexts. The very direct link with climate change and the expected value from shoreline protection are features of mangrove forests that are not as clear cut for land-based forest communities. Further, much of the mangrove land is integrated within the subsistence economies of village communities. In many parts of the world, subsistence-based communities have had relatively little formal power to confront outside interventions. In Fiji, the villages are better recognized, more active in the political system, and have more autonomy than in other countries. Taken together, these factors provide opportunities for mangrove management in Fiji that follows more sustainable pathways.

The fact that the Fiji Locally Managed Marine Areas Network (FLMMA) was recognized for its achievements by the UN last year, may reflect in part the relatively advanced capacity of Fiji for community-based management. One strategy then is to increase support for community management of marine (mangrove) resources throughout Viti Levu. Prominent NGOs in Fiji have, by and large, adopted the approach of working with and through local communities and these partnerships are well established. This approach ensures the relevance of the projects undertaken. As the number of communities engaged and projects expands, so too does the capacity of Fiji to conserve mangrove regions.

It might therefore be imperative to accelerate this process before many more mangroves are lost. Some of the principal donors however have a preference for supporting activities that are in line with the priorities of the Fijian government. The government in turn is not likely to prioritize mangrove conservation unless there is an overwhelming case demonstrated by successful projects that this is both important and feasible. One way to begin to make this happen is for those donor organizations who are less constrained in their funding priorities to support these kinds of initiatives. In addition efforts must also be to try to raise the priority of mangrove conservation within government through the promotion of existing projects and helping to raise awareness.


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This integrated analysis reveals the need for mainstreaming climate change responses in development planning and assistance in Fiji. Given that Fiji has a high island setting; it is therefore a priori relatively less vulnerable to climate change impacts than low lying atoll countries such as Tuvalu. Nevertheless, a considerable portion of ecosystems, built infrastructure, and economic activity in Fiji is concentrated in low-lying coastal regions, thereby making them vulnerable to climate change.

8.1. Climate trends, scenarios and impacts

Impacts of climate change on Fiji will include rising temperature and sea levels, possibly more intense storms, and damaging storm surge events. There might also be significant shifts in precipitation for Fiji, but a comparative analysis of climate model projections in this report reveals that the magnitude and direction of such shifts is highly uncertain. The Fijian economy is already quite vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as cyclones, floods, and droughts, with the costs of storm surge impacts for individual events at times as high as a few percent of the annual GDP. A subjective ranking of key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Fiji identifies coastal resources as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resource being affected.

8.2 Attention to climate change concerns in national planning and donor portfolios

There is a general awareness of the risks posed by climate change, both in Fiji and, more generally, among Pacific Island Country (PIC) governments. The Fijian government is aware of the environmental vulnerabilities related to current and future climatic risks. For instance, the Strategic Development Plan recognizes Fiji’s vulnerabilities to climatic extremes and pays ample attention to disaster risk reduction. Although there is no specific plan yet that focuses explicitly on adaptation to climate change, there are several plans which include appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with climatic risks. Such plans however remain works in progress and will require effective implementation, as well as greater coherence between climate change and national economic development priorities.

Several bilateral and multilateral donors have been actively involved, some for over a decade, in efforts to assess the vulnerability of Fiji and other PICs to climate change risks. However, aside from projects that are specific to climate change or sea level rise, donors have generally not explicitly recognized the need to mainstream climate risks in their regular development work in Fiji. An analysis of donor projects - Fiji receives around US$ 30 million in development assistance annually - using the OECD/World Bank Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database reveals roughly 23-36% (in terms of investment dollars) and 19-23% (in terms of number of projects) of donor portfolios in Fiji that are potentially vulnerable to climate change impacts. Often, not only the attention to climate change but also to climate risks or to natural hazards more generally is not discussed in the donor strategies. Considering that climate risks in Fiji extend to economic, social and environmental contexts, there is a need for the donor side to mainstream the climatic risks in donor development strategies.

8.3 Towards no regrets adaptation and mainstreaming of climate responses

Fiji is currently part of an emerging trend in certain PICs where there is a shift in emphasis from assessment of climate change impacts towards implementation of adaptation measures. There has simultaneously also been growing recognition of the need to “mainstream” such adaptation responses within national and donor development priorities. These trends were spurred in part by the World Bank Regional Economic Report (RER) of 2000 which contained a full volume on climate change and implications of climate risks in Viti Levu (Fiji) and Tarawa (Kiribati). The World Bank RER concluded that the current “do nothing” approach was inadequate, while adaptation planning through expensive


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investments for the worst case scenario might be impractical and unaffordable, particularly given the uncertainties in climate change and sea level rise projections. The report therefore recommended “no regrets” adaptation – measures which make good sense for other reasons and might contribute to reduced vulnerability to climate change impacts. Water conservation and leakage prevention in particular were cited as high priority no-regrets adaptation options for Viti Levu. “Mainstreaming” of climate responses within development planning and assistance was also viewed from the prism of no-regrets adaptation.

There have been a series of high level consultations in the PIC region since the publication of this report, and both no-regrets adaptation and mainstreaming have received political endorsement at very high levels. A Pacific Island High Level Consultation on Investing in Adaptation was held in Nadi, Fiji, in May 2002 with senior representation not only from Environment, but also from Finance and Planning ministries. The Nadi communiqué “highlighted the importance of an integrated and participatory approach to climate change, climate variability and sea-level rise […] within national development plans, budgets and national planning and decision-making machineries of governments”. Subsequently, at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in September 2002, the Prime Minister of Fiji chaired a side event in which fourteen Type II initiatives were launched for PICs, including adaptation to climate change.

8.4 Coastal mangroves and climate change

The high level endorsement for mainstreaming climate responses notwithstanding, an in-depth analysis of mangrove conservation in Fiji in the latter half of the present report highlights the critical challenges for actual implementation or mainstreaming of even so-called no-regrets adaptation measures in Fiji. Coastal mangroves act to reduce coastal erosion and storm surge damages, but are themselves vulnerable to climate change and would need to migrate shoreward with the rising inter-tidal zone as sea level rises. Successful migration of mangroves requires that upland areas be managed to allow migration to take place. Conservation of mangroves is viewed as a no-regrets climate change adaptation in that mangroves provide existing services to local communities irrespective of their buffering of rising sea level. This includes their role in fisheries, reef protection, stabilization of coastlines, timber supply, medicinal uses, and so on.

Conservation of mangroves is not without distributive costs however, as existing mangrove land is converted to uses for agriculture, tourism, and settlements. Those who benefit from mangrove destruction and conservation are typically different groups. The current and long term trend in Fiji is for a loss of mangrove coverage. A key reason for this continued loss is the mismatch between the mangrove ecosystem and the property rights regime. In Fiji, a traditional clan, or mataqali, has communal claim over the physical resources and the environment, including mangroves. However, the government has declared these rights as being usus fructus only, thereby affecting the amount of compensation paid for a loss of mangroves for reclamation purposes (Lal 1990; 2002). The economic analyses reviewed in this report indicate that the mangrove valuation typically used by the Department of Lands is only a fraction (as low as 1/20th) of the values assessed by other groups through economic valuation studies that take into account various mangrove services, including by the World Bank and Fiji’s own Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan (BSAP). The mismatch might be even greater if the role of mangroves as a coastal defence against climate change and sea-level rise was also to be explicitly factored. Successful mainstreaming of even no-regrets adaptation responses therefore might require greater policy coherence between climate change and development policies – appropriate valuation of mangrove regions is one such example.

Finally, there is also a need for a coastal management plan that prioritizes mangrove conservation, requiring adequate setbacks of development from the high water line to facilitate mangrove migration, and engaging local communities in these processes. At the local level, Fijian villages dominate the coastal environment. Some of these communities are working with one another and with NGOs based in Fiji to conserve marine and coastal resources. Though only a relatively small number of projects of this


49

kind exist at this point, they have been widely viewed as successful. There are however concerns that some of these efforts may have been too narrowly focused on restoration of mangrove species, and not necessarily of the habitat that supports them. If the broader ecosystem is not considered, then local efforts at mangrove conservation might be hindered by non-local stresses such as upland erosion, silting, and agricultural run-off that deteriorate the habitat. Such concerns however are being recognized and opportunities exist to promote more initiatives in this regard as a way to broaden the area of mangroves under local management and protection, and as a way to raise the profile of mangrove conservation with the government of Fiji.


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REFERENCES

Agrawala, S. and M. Berg, 2002, “Development and Climate Change Project: Concept Paper on Scope

and Criteria for Case Study selection. COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2002)1/Final, OECD, Paris.

Blasco, F., Saenger, P., and Janodet, E. (1996). Mangroves as indicators of coastal change. Catena, 27(1):167-178.

Bygrave, S. (1998). Sustainable Energy for Environment and Development: The Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technologies to Pacific Island Communities, PhD Thesis, Australian National University

Feresi, J., G. Kenny, N. de Wet, L. Limalevu, J. Bhusan, and I. Ratukalou. (1999). Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Fiji, Draft. November.

Fiji Government (2002). 20 year development plan (2001-2020) for the enhancement of participation of indigenous Fijians and Rotumans in the socio-economic development of Fiji. Parliamentary Paper No. 73 of 2002. 216pp.

Fiji Government (2003). Biodiversity plan for Fiji approved. Press Release, January 30th.

Ghazanfar, S. (2001). Eleocharis dulcis (kuta), a plant of economic and cultural importance in the South West Pacific: habitat restoration efforts in the vanua of Buca, Vanua Levu, Fiji. S. Pac. J. Nat. Sci. 19, 51-53.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Hoegh-Guldberg, H., Stout, D., Cesar, H., and Timmerman, A. (2000). Pacific in Peril: Biological, Economic, and Social Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Coral Reefs. Greenpeace, Amsterdam. 72pp.

ILO. (2003). Thirteenth Asian Regional Meeting. Labor Markets in the Region. International Labor Organization. http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/asro/bangkok/arm/table4.htm. Accessed January 2003.

JICA. (1998). The Study on Watershed Management and Flood Control for the Four Major Viti Levu Rivers in the Republic of Fiji. Draft Final Report, Main Report. Prepared by the Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd. for the Japan International Cooperation Agency, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forests, The Republic of Fiji. July.

Jones, R. and Pinheiro, L. (2000). Fiji. Lonely Planet Publications, Footscray, Australia. 296pp.

Knight, D., LeDrew, E., and Holden, H. (1997). Mapping submerged corals in Fiji from remote sensing and in situ measurements: applications for integrated coastal management. Ocean & Coastal Management, 34(2):153-170.

Koshy, K. and Philip, L. (2002). Capacity enhancement for the Pacific. Tiempo, 45(9):1-9.


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Lal, P.N. (1990). Conservation or Conversion of Mangroves in Fiji – An Ecological Economic Analysis. Occasional Paper 11, Environmental Policy Institute, East-West Center, Honolulu.

Lal, P.N. (2002). Integrated and adaptive mangrove management framework – an action oriented approach for the next millennium, in Lacerda, L.D. Mangrove Ecosystems: Functions and Management, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 235-256.

Maine State Planning Office (1995). Anticipatory planning for sea-level rise along the coast of Maine. Technical report, Maine State Planning Office and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-230-R-95-900. 182pp.

Moberg, F. and Folke, C. (1999). Ecological goods and services of coral reef ecosystems. Ecol. Econ., 29(2):215-233.

Nunn, P., Ravuvu, A., Kay, R., and Yamada, K. (1993). Assessment of coastal vulnerability and resilience to sea level rise and climate change. case study: Viti Levu Island, Fiji. phase 1: Concepts and approach. Technical report, South Pacific Regional Environment Programme. 188pp.

Pernetta, J. (1993). Mangrove forests, climate change, and sea level rise. Technical report, IUCN The World Conservation Union. 46pp.

Quarto, A. (2002). The mangrove forest. Technical report, Mangrove Action Project. 22pp.

Risbey, J.S.; Lamb, P.J.; Miller, R.L.; Morgan, M.C.; and Roe, G.H. (2002): Exploring the structure of region climate scenarios by combining synoptic and dynamic guidance and GCM output. In: Journal of Climate 15: 1036-1050.

Smith, J. (2003). Coastal land impacts. Technical report, Stratus Consulting. 172pp.

Titus, J. (2000). Does the U.S. government realize that the sea is rising? how to restructure federal programs so that wetland and beaches survive. Golden Gate University Law Review, 30(4):717-778.

Watling, R. (1986a). A mangrove management plan for Fiji. Phase 1: Zonation requirements and a plan for the mangroves of the Ba, Labasa, and Rewa Deltas. Technical report, The Mangrove Management Committee, Fiji. A joint project of the Fiji Government and the South Pacific Commission. 67pp.

Watling, R. (1986b). A mangrove management plan for Fiji. Phase 2: A plan for the mangroves of the Nadi Bay and Suva-Navua locales. Technical report, The Mangrove Management Committee, Fiji. A joint project of the Fiji Government and the South Pacific Commission. 31pp.

WorldBank (2000). Cities, sea, and storms: Managing change in Pacific island economies. volume IV Adapting to climate change. Technical report, The World Bank. 72pp.


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APPENDIX A: GCM PREDICTIVE ERRORS FOR EACH SCENGEN MODEL FOR FIJI

These tables show the predictive error for annual precipitation levels for each SCENGEN model for each country. Each model is ranked by its error score, which was computed using the formula 100*[(MODEL MEAN BASELINE / OBSERVED) - 1.0]. Error scores closest to zero are optimal. For Fiji, the first eleven models had significantly lower error scores than the remaining six; therefore, the latter six were dropped from the analysis.

Table A.4. Predictive errors for each SCENGEN model for Fiji Average error24 Minimum error Maximum error Models to be kept for estimation CCC1TR99 8% 2% 16% GISSTR95 9% 3% 17% CSI2TR96 9% 1% 19% PCM_TR00 10% 1% 21% BMRCTR98 15% 3% 22% GFDLTR90 15% 4% 25% HAD3TR00 16% 2% 30% ECH3TR95 17% 2% 27% ECH4TR98 18% 3% 31% CSM_TR98 19% 7% 36% MRI_TR96 21% 18% 25% Models to be dropped from estimation CERFTR98 24% 21% 29% W&M_TR95 27% 1% 62% IAP_TR97 30% 12% 47% LMD_TR98 31% 13% 44% HAD2TR95 31% 4% 66% CCSRTR96 50% 41% 56%




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APPENDIX B: LIST OF PURPOSE CODES INCLUDED IN THE SELECTION OF CLIMATE-AFFECTED PROJECTS, ORGANIZED BY THE DAC SECTOR CODE.

DAC code General sector name

Purpose codes that are included in the selection



150 Government & civil society 15010 (economic & development policy/planning) 160 Other social infrastructure

and services 16330 (settlement) and 16340 (reconstruction relief)



240 Banking and financial services

-

250 Business and other services - 310 Agriculture, forestry, fishing All purpose codes 320 Industry, mining,

construction -

330 Trade and tourism 33200 (tourism, general) 33210 (tourism policy and admin. management)

410 General environment protection

41000 (general environmental protection) 41010 (environmental policy and management) 41020 (biosphere protection) 41030 (biodiversity) 41040 (site preservation) 41050 (flood prevention/control)# 41081 (environmental education/training) 41082 (environmental research)

420 Women in development -


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430 Other multisector 43030 (urban development) 43040 (rural development)

510 Structural adjustment - 520* Food aid excluding relief aid 52000 (dev. food aid/food security assist.)






910 Administrative costs of donors

-

920 Support to NGOs - 930 Unallocated/unspecified - * sector codes that are excluded in the second selection (low estimate). # purpose codes that are included in the emergency selection


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APPENDIX C: SOURCES FOR DOCUMENTATION

Documentation Statistics CRS database, OECD/World Bank http://www.oecd.org/htm/M00005000/M00005347.htm

Government documents Fiji Government www.fiji.gov.fj

- Strategic Development Plan 2003-2005 (2002) -

UN Conventions UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) www.unfccc.int


- National Report (2002)


- National Report (1997) - Second National Report (2001)

World Summit on Sustainable Development

Donor agencies

ADB www.adb.org

- Country Assistance Plan (2000-2002) - Country Strategy and Program Update (2003-2005) - Third Road Upgrading Project, Report and Recommendation of the President (1997) - Climate Change Adaptation Program for the Pacific (CLIMAP)

o Past Adaptation Assistance – a Review (2003) o Technical Assistance Report OTH 36069 (2002)

- Ports Development Project, Report and Recommendation of the President (2002) - Supporting Economic Management and Development Policies Technical assistance Project,

Technical Assistance Report (2002) AusAid www.ausaid.gov.au

- Regional Strategy (1998) - Country Brief - Submission to Parliament (2002)


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- Rural strategy (undated) - Pacific Profiles (2000, 2001) - Promoting Practical Sustainability (undated) - The Overseas Aid Program and the Challenge of Global Warming (1999, 2000) - Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Monitoring Program (since 1990) - Vulnerability and Adaptation Initiative (2002)

CIDA

- Capacity Building for the Development of Adaptation Measures in Pacific Island Countries (CBDAMPIC) project – project brief (2003)

DFID www.dfid.gov.uk

- Pacific Region Strategy Paper (1999) EU

- National Indicative Program for Cooperation under the Second Financial Protocol of the Fourth Lome Convention (1997)

JICA www.jica.go.jp

- Annual Report (2001) Japan Environment Agency www.env.go.jp/en

- Development of Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan (1992) NZAid www.nzaid.govt.nz

- Pacific Initiatives for the Environment Program (?) SOPAC www.sopac.org.fj

- Comprehensive Hazard and Risk Management Program (program CD-ROM, 2002) SPREP www.sprep.org.ws

- PICCAP UNDP www.undp.org.np

- Multi-country Programmes Outline for the Pacific Island Countries (2003-2007) -

UNEP www.unep.org

USAID www.usaid.gov


- Regional Economic Report (2000) - Pacific Adaptation Program (personal correspondence)

Development and Climate Change in Tanzania:

Focus on Mount Kilimanjaro

77 313



DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA: Focus on Mount Kilimanjaro

JT00154979


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English - O

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3

FOREWORD

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity being jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP) of the Environment Directorate, and the Network on Environment and Development Co-operation of the Development Co-operation Directorate (DAC-Environet). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Insights from the work are therefore expected to have implications for the development assistance community in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.

This document has been authored by Shardul Agrawala and Annett Moehner. It draws upon four primary consultant inputs that were commissioned for this country study: “Climate Impacts and Responses in Mount Kilimanjaro” by Andreas Hemp (University of Bayreuth, Germany); “Review of Development Plans, Strategies, Assistance Portfolios, and Select Projects Potentially Relevant to Climate Change in Tanzania” by Maarten van Aalst of Utrecht University, The Netherlands; “Analysis of GCM Scenarios and Ranking of Principal Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Tanzania” by Stratus Consulting, Boulder, USA (Sam Hitz and Joel Smith); and “Development and Climate Change in Tanzania” by the Center for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology (CEEST), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (Hubert Meena, Stephen M. Mwakifwamba, Tharsis Hyera, and Obeth U. Mwaipopo).

In addition to delegates from WPGSP and DAC-Environet, comments from Tom Jones, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Georg Caspary, and Remy Paris of the OECD Secretariat are gratefully acknowledged. Tomoko Ota and Martin Berg provided project support at various times during the project. Shardul Agrawala would like to acknowledge inputs on Kilimanjaro ice-field and regional climate patterns from Lonnie Thompson (Ohio State University, USA), Jeanne Altman (Princeton University, USA), Douglas Hardy (University of Massachusetts, USA) and Georg Kaser (University of Innsbruck, Austria). Andreas Hemp acknowledges support for prior fieldwork in the Kilimanjaro from 1996-2002 from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, the UNEP project “Global Trends in Africa: the Case of Mt. Kilimanjaro” that forms the basis for several major findings of the Kilimanjaro case study, and support from the Tanzanian Commission for Science and Technology, the Chief Park Wardens of Kilimanjaro National Park, to the Catchment Forest officers and to Mr. Mushi, Moshi. The Secretariat and Maarten van Aalst would like to acknowledge several members of the OECD DAC who provided valuable materials on country strategies as well as specific projects. Stratus Consulting would like to acknowledge inputs from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).




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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD.................................................................................................................................................. 3


LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................. 8

1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2. Country background ......................................................................................................................... 9 3. Climate: baseline climatology and climate change scenarios......................................................... 11

3.1 Current climate ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Climate change and sea level rise projections .......................................................................... 12

4. Overview of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation responses..................................................... 14 4.1 Agriculture ................................................................................................................................ 15 4.2 Forests....................................................................................................................................... 15 4.3 Water resources......................................................................................................................... 16 4.4 Coastal resources ...................................................................................................................... 16 4.5 Human health............................................................................................................................ 17 4.6 Energy, industry and transport .................................................................................................. 17 4.7 Overview of adaptation responses ............................................................................................ 17

5. Attention to climate concerns in donor activities ........................................................................... 19 5.1 Donor activities affected by climate risks................................................................................. 20 5.2 Attention to climate risks in donor strategies............................................................................ 24 5.3 Climate risks in selected development programs and projects ................................................. 25

6. Attention to climate concerns in national planning ........................................................................ 26 6.1 National Action Plan on Climate Change ................................................................................. 27 6.2 National communications to international environmental agreements ..................................... 27 6.3 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) ............................................................................... 28 6.4 Other national policies of relevance to climate change ............................................................ 28

7. Climate change and Mount Kilimanjaro ........................................................................................ 29 7.1 Climate, glaciers, and hydrology .............................................................................................. 30 7.2 Ecosystems, biodiversity and land tenure on Mount Kilimanjaro ............................................ 32 7.3 Climatic trends on Mount Kilimanjaro ..................................................................................... 35 7.4 Potential impacts of climatic changes: glacier retreat............................................................... 38 7.5 Potential impacts of climatic changes: enhancement of fire risk.............................................. 39 7.6 Other threats to the Mount Kilimanjaro ecosystem .................................................................. 45 7.7 Scenarios for 2020 with respect to fire impact ......................................................................... 46 7.8 Climate risks in perspective: shrinking glaciers versus enhanced fire risk............................... 47

8. Policy responses for Mount Kilimanjaro........................................................................................ 47 8.1 Policy responses to the shrinking ice cap.................................................................................. 47 8.2 Policy responses to general environmental threats ................................................................... 48 8.3 Policy responses to enhanced fire risk ...................................................................................... 48 8.4 Promotion of ecosystem friendly livelihood opportunities....................................................... 52

9. Concluding remarks ....................................................................................................................... 53


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9.1 Differentiated adaptation strategy.................................................................................................... 54 9.2 Climate change and donor portfolios............................................................................................... 54 9.3 Attention to climate change concerns in national planning............................................................. 55 9.4 Climate risks in perspective on Mount Kilimanjaro........................................................................ 55 9.5 Policy responses for Mount Kilimanjaro......................................................................................... 56

APPENDIX A: PREDICTIVE ERRORS FOR SCENGEN ANALYSIS FOR TANZANIA...................... 57

APPENDIX B: LIST OF PURPOSE CODES INCLUDED IN THE SELECTION OF CLIMATE-AFFECTED PROJECTS, ORGANIZED BY THE DAC SECTOR CODE ................................................ 58

APPENDIX C: REVIEW OF SELECTED DONOR STRATEGIES FOR TANZANIA............................ 59

APPENDIX D: REVIEW OF SELECTED DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS/PROGRAMS......................... 63

APPENDIX E: SOURCES FOR DOCUMENTATION .............................................................................. 65

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 67

Boxes

Box 1. A brief description of MAGICC/SCENGEN ............................................................................... 12 Box 2. Creditor Reporting System (CRS) Database ................................................................................ 21 Box 3. Flora of Mount Kilimanjaro.......................................................................................................... 32 Box 4. Fauna of Mount Kilimanjaro ........................................................................................................ 34


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the integrated case study for Tanzania carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Tanzania are assessed, and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios in Tanzania are analyzed to examine the proportion of donor activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for climate change impacts and response strategies for Mount Kilimanjaro – a critical ecosystem, biodiversity hotspot, and source of freshwater. This part of the analysis draws upon extended field research by a case study consultant in collaboration with national and international partners.

Analysis of recent climate trends reveals that climate change poses significant risks for Tanzania. While projected changes in precipitation are uncertain, there is a high likelihood of temperature increases as well as sea level rise. Climate change scenarios across multiple general circulation models show increases in country averaged mean temperatures of 1.3°C and 2.2°C projected by 2050 and 2100, which are broadly consistent, though lower than, projections used in Tanzania’s Initial National Communication. The sectors potentially impacted by climate change include agriculture, forests, water resources, coastal resources, human health, as well as energy, industry and transport.

While uncertainties in climate change and impact projections pose a challenge for anticipatory adaptation in any country, Tanzania’s case has several specific characteristics that might suggest the need for a differentiated adaptation strategy. First, the climate change projections which form the basis of national assessments rely on an older generation of climate models which project higher temperature increases than more recent models analyzed in the present study. Updating of climate scenarios and impact projections through the use of multiple and more recent models might therefore be advisable prior to the formulation of aggressive (and potentially expensive) adaptation responses. A second characteristic feature of Tanzania is that certain sectors such as agriculture and water resources are projected to experience both negative and positive impacts under climate change – for example, while production of maize is projected to decline, the production of two cash crops (coffee and cotton) is projected to increase. The implication for adaptation therefore may be to not only cushion adverse impacts, but also to harness positive opportunities. A third key characteristic is that unlike most other countries where the need for adaptation relies on projections of future impacts, some discernible trends in climate and attendant impacts are already underway in Tanzania. Such impacts – as is the case of the Kilimanjaro ecosystem - argue for more immediate adaptation responses as opposed to a “wait and see” strategy.

Tanzania receives close to a billion US dollars of Official Development Assistance (ODA) annually. Analysis of donor portfolios in Tanzania using the OECD-World Bank Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database reveals that between 12-25% of development assistance (by aid amount) or 20-30% of donor projects (by number) are in sectors potentially affected by climate risks. However, these numbers are only indicative at best, given that any classification based on sectors suffers from over-simplification – the reader is referred to the main report for a more nuanced interpretation. Donor and government documents generally do not mention climate change explicitly, although frequent references are made to the impacts of climate variability and their linkages to economic performance. There is


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however considerable synergy between priorities of at least some national plans and measures that might be required for climate change adaptation, such as water conservation, improving agricultural resilience, and forest conservation. However, some of these goals (such as water conservation) had been articulated, though not successfully implemented in previous plans. Therefore, a key obstacle facing “mainstreaming” is not synergies at the level of planning documents, but rather the successful implementation of such plans.

The in-depth sector analysis focuses on the climate change impacts and policy responses on the Mount Kilimanjaro ecosystem. Glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro have been in a general state of retreat on account of natural causes for over a hundred and fifty years. Due to a decline in precipitation coupled with a local warming trend that has been recorded in the second half of the twentieth century Kilimanjaro’s ice cap is now projected to vanish entirely by as early as 2020. The symbolism of this loss is indeed significant, and furthermore the loss of the ice cap would also imply that valuable records of past climates contained in its ice cores would also be irreplaceably destroyed. From a physical and socio economic perspective however, this analysis concludes that the impact of the loss of the ice cap is likely to be very limited. Much more significant is the enhancement in the intensity and risk of forest fires on Mount Kilimanjaro as a consequence of the increase in temperatures and a concomitant decline in precipitation over the past several decades. Forest fires have resulted in the replacement of the fog intercepting subalpine forest belt by low lying shrub which has already seriously impacted the hydrological balance of the mountain as fog intercepting cloud forests play a key role in the water budgets of high altitude drainage basins. A continuation of current trends in climatic changes, fire frequency, and human influence could result in the loss of most of the remaining subalpine Erica forests in a matter of years. With this, Mount Kilimanjaro will have lost its most effective water catchment. Among the more immediate adaptation responses identified by this report are institutional measures such as the inclusion of the forest belt into the Kilimanjaro National Park and the creation of a paramilitary ranger group to deter logging, as well as better investments in early warning systems, particularly the purchase of one or two aircraft for aerial surveillance. There is also a need to limit cross-border migration of big game from neighbouring Amboseli, which is adding to the stress on the Kilimanjaro ecosystem. In addition to short term solutions there is a critical need to develop a comprehensive and holistic development plan focusing on fire-risk and forest destruction, livelihood needs of the local population as well as on conservation strategies to ensure the long term sustainability of the valuable resources of the Kilimanjaro ecosystem.


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LIST OF ACRONYMS

AfDB AMA asl AVVA CBO CCCM CEEST CERES-Maize COMPACT CRS DAC DFID EACC FAO FFYP GCA GCM GDP GEF GHG GMBA GNP GNI IDA IFAD IPCC KINAPA MW NEAP NEP NCAA NGO ODA PRSP SIDA TAF TANAPA TFYP UN UNCB UNCCD UNCED UNDAF UNDP UNEP UNESCO UNF UNFCCC USAID USCSP WHO WNHS

African Development Bank African Mountain Association Above Sea Level Aerial Videotape-assisted Vulnerability Analysis Community Based Organization Canadian Climate Centre Model Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology Crop Environment Resource Synthesis model Community Management of Protected Areas Conservation Project Creditor Reporting System of the OECD/World Bank Development Assistance Committee Department for International Development East African Coastal Current Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations First Five Year Plan Game Controlled Areas General Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Greenhouse Gases Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment Gross National Product Gross National Income International Development Assistance International Fund for Agricultural Development Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Kilimanjaro National Park Mega Watt National Environmental Action Plan National Environmental Policy Ngorongoro Conservation Authority Area Non Governmental Organization Official Development Assistance Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers Swedish International Development Agency Tanzanian Association of Foresters Tanzanian National Parks Third Five Year Plan United Nations United Nations Convention on Biodiversity United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Conference on Environment and Development United Nations Development Assistance Framework United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Foundation United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The United States Agency for International Development United States Country Studies Program World Health Organization World Natural Heritage Sites


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1. Introduction

This report presents the integrated case study for Tanzania for the OECD Development and Climate Change Project, an activity jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment (WPENV). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. The Tanzania case study was conducted in parallel with five other country case studies1 in Africa, Latin America, and Asia and the Pacific.

Each case study is based upon a three-tiered framework for analysis (Agrawala and Berg 2002).


2. Review of economic, environmental, and social plans and projects of both the government and international donors that bear upon the sectors and regions identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change. The purpose of this analysis is to assess the degree of exposure of current development activities and projects to climate risks, as well as the degree of current attention by the government and donors to incorporating such risks in their planning. This section will review donor portfolios and projects, as well as development priorities of the Government of Tanzania to determine the degree of attention to potential risks posed by climate change on relevant sectors.

3. In-depth analyses at a thematic, sectoral, regional or project level on how to incorporate climate responses within economic development plans and projects, again with a particular focus on natural resource management. In the case of Tanzania this case study provides an overview of critical impacts and mainstreaming challenges for a number of sectors. This is followed by an in-depth analysis on Mount Kilimanjaro – a UNESCO World Heritage Site and also a critical ecosystem and source of freshwater resources for Tanzania. The analysis on climate change impacts and response strategies for the Mount Kilimanjaro ecosystem draws upon field research over an extended period by a case study consultant in collaboration with national and international partners.


Tanzania is located in East Africa, on the Indian Ocean bordered by Kenya to the north and Mozambique to the south (Figure 1). It has an area of 945,000 km2 which includes the three major coastal islands of Mafia, Pemba, and Zanzibar, and a coastline that is about 800 km long. The geography is characterized by plains along the coast, a central plateau, and highlands in the north and south. The northwest of the country encompasses approximately one-half of Lake Victoria, the second largest body of freshwater in the world, and the western and southwestern borders abut the comparably massive Lake Tanganyika and Lake Nyasa. Elevations range from sea level to the highest point in Africa, the glaciated peak of Kilimanjaro at 5,895 m, the expansive slopes of which constitute one of the unique ecosystems of

1 Bangladesh, Egypt, Uruguay, Fiji, and Nepal.


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Africa. Tanzania also includes the Serengeti, the site of one of the last major terrestrial mammalian migrations in the world and a prominent tourist destination.

Figure 1. Map of Tanzania

Tanzania is one of the poorest countries in the world with a GNI per capita of only US $ 280 (World Bank 2002). Gross national income per capita over the period 1994-2000 stood at about US$270 compared to US$470 for sub-Saharan Africa in general. Some 42% of the total population and 50% of the rural population live below the poverty line, according to a 1993 survey, with 20% of the entire population surviving on less than US$1 per day (World Bank, 2002). Based on the same 1993 survey, the Gini Coefficient2 for Tanzania is 0.38, with the poorest 10% accounting for 2.8% of the national income and the richest 10% accounting for 30.1%. According to World Bank estimates, Tanzania’s population in 2000 was 33.7 million, and growing at 1.8% a year. Average Life-expectancy is only 43.1 years (World Bank 2002). While an overwhelming proportion of the population still lives in rural areas, by the late 1990s, 27.8% of the country’s population lived in an urban setting, up from only 10.1% in 1975. Tanzania’s economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, which accounts for nearly one-half of GDP, employs 80% of the work force, and provides 85% of exports (World Bank, 2002). Topography and climatic conditions, however, limit cultivated crops to only 4% of the land area. Industry has traditionally been limited to the processing of agricultural products and light consumer goods. However, with a significant infusion of funds from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and bilateral donors, growth over the last decade has featured 2 The Gini coefficient is a number between zero and one that measures the degree of inequality in the



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an increase in industrial production and a substantial increase in output of minerals (CIA, 2002). Private sector growth and investment have also increased and, coupled with donor aid and liberal macroeconomic policies, should support continued growth of about 5% (World Bank, 2002).

Economic growth could play an important role in increasing the capacity of a country like Tanzania to adapt to climate change. However, the current state of its infrastructure and educational system is likely an impediment to Tanzania’s ability to cope effectively with climatic risks. In 2000, only 4.2% of Tanzania’s road network was paved, compared to 16.5% for low income countries in general. Further, while 37% of tertiary level students were enrolled in science and engineering programs between 1987 and 1997, gross tertiary enrolment stood at only 0.66% by 1997 (World Bank, 2002). Similarly, gross secondary enrolment was 6.5%. Adult literacy was 24.9% in 2000. Figure 2 provides an indication of how Tanzania compares to other low income countries in terms of four key indices of development. On all four measures of development, Tanzania ranks considerably below the average for low income countries.

Figure 2. Development diamond for Tanzania

Tanzania

Low-income group


Life expectancy


GNIpercapita

Grossprimary

enrollment


3. Climate: baseline climatology and climate change scenarios

This section briefly reviews projections of temperature and precipitation change for Tanzania from climate models, and then provides a synthesis of key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.

3.1 Current climate

Tanzania’s climate ranges from tropical to temperate in the highlands. Average annual precipitation over the entire nation is 1,042 mm. Average temperatures range between 17°C and 27°C, depending on location. Natural hazards include both flooding and drought. Within the country, altitude plays a large role in determining rainfall pattern, with higher elevations receiving more precipitation. Generally speaking, the total amount of rainfall is not very great. Only about half the country receives more than 762 mm annually (Mwandosya et al., 1998). Tanzania’s precipitation is governed by two rainfall regimes. Bimodal rainfall, comprised of the long rains of Masika between March-May and short rains of Vuli between October-December, is the pattern for much of the northeastern, northwestern (Lake Victoria basin) and the northern parts of the coastal belt. A unimodal rainfall pattern, with most of the rainfall


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during December-April, is more typical of most of the southern, central, western, and southeastern parts of the country.

3.2 Climate change and sea level rise projections

Changes in area averaged temperature and precipitation over Tanzania were assessed using outputs from over a dozen recent (post 1995) GCMs which are processed using a new version of MAGICC/SCENGEN. MAGICC/SCENGEN is briefly described in Box 1. First, results for Tanzania for 17 GCMs developed since 1995 were examined. Next, 11 of 17 models which best simulate current climate over Tanzania were selected. The models were run with the IPCC B2 SRES scenario (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000)3.


MAGICC/SCENGEN is a coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial climate-change scenario generator (SCENGEN). MAGICC is a Simple Climate Model that computes the mean global surface air temperature and sea-level rise for particular emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and sulphur dioxide (Raoer et al., 1996). MAGICC has been the primary model used by IPCC to produce projections of future global-mean temperature and sea level rise (see Houghton et al., 2001). SCENGEN is a database that contains the results of a large number of GCM experiments. SCENGEN constructs a range of geographically-explicit climate change scenarios for the world by exploiting the results from MAGICC and a set of GCM experiments, and combining these with observed global and regional climate data sets. SCENGEN uses the scaling method of Santer et al. (1990) to produce spatial pattern of change from an extensive data base of atmosphere ocean GCM – AOGCM (atmosphere ocean general circulation models) data. Spatial patterns are “normalized” and expressed as changes per 1°C change in global-mean temperature. The greenhouse-gas and aerosol components are appropriately weighted, added, and scaled up to the actual global-mean temperature. The user can select from a number of different AOGCMs for the greenhouse-gas component. For the aerosol component there is currently only a single set of model results. This approach assumes that regional patterns of climate change will be consistent at varying levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The MAGICC component employs IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) science (Houghton et al., 2001). The SCENGEN component allows users to investigate only changes in the mean climate state in response to external forcing. It relies mainly on climate models run in the latter half of the 1990s.


The spread in temperature and precipitation projections of these 11 GCMs for various years in

the future provides an estimate of the degree of agreement across various models for particular projections. More consistent projections across various models will tend to have lower scores for the standard deviation, relative to the value of the mean. The results of the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis for Tanzania are shown in Table 1.

3 The IPCC SRES B2 scenario assumes a world of moderate population growth and intermediate level of



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Table 1. GCM estimates of temperature and precipitation changes4

Year Temperature change (°C) mean (standard deviation)


Tanzania Annual JJA5 SON6 DJF7 MAM8 Annual JJA SON DJF MAM 2030 0.9 (0.20) 1.0

(0.21) .8 (0.17)

.8 (0.30)

0.9 (0.30)

4.1 (5.05)

-2.4 (7.98)

3.9 (10.04)

6.6 (8.06)

2.2 (5.34)

2050 1.3 (0.28) 1.5 (0.31)

1.2 (0.25)

1.1 (0.43)

1.3 (0.44)

5.9 (7.30)

-3.5 (11.53)

5.6 (14.51)

9.6 (11.64)

3.1 (7.72)

2100 2.2 (0.49) 2.6 (0.54)

2.1 (0.43)

1.9 (0.75)

2.3 (0.77)

10.2 (12.70)

-6.0 (20.07)

9.7 (25.27)

16.7 (20.27)

5.4 (13.44)

The results indicate that mean annual temperatures are projected to rise by 2.2 C by 2100, with somewhat higher increases (2.6 °C) over June, July and August, and lower values (1.9 °C) for December, January, February. Low standard deviations relative to the mean indicate good agreement across the 11 models. The Initial National Communication of Tanzania (2003) projects a temperature increase between 3-5 °C under doubling of carbon dioxide, which is benchmarked to the year 2075. The lower estimates of MAGICC/SCENGEN are likely from the use of more recent scenarios (SRES) and multiple (17), more recent (post 1995) GCMs with a better treatment of aerosols in the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis. The Tanzania National Communication meanwhile relied on four earlier generation models (primarily the UK1989), as well as older (unspecified) emissions scenarios. Both sets of analyses however show temperature increases, and furthermore the patterns of seasonal temperature increase are consistent. Specifically, greater warming is projected for the cooler months (June-August) compared to the warmer months (December-February).

In terms of precipitation meanwhile, according to the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis annual precipitation over the whole country is projected to increase by 10% by 2100, although seasonal declines of 6% are projected for June, July and August, and increasers of 16.7% for December, January, February. However, high standard deviations are indicative of low confidence in these projections across the various models. Furthermore, the precipitation regimes across Tanzania vary considerably, as discussed in the preceding section. Therefore country averaged values for precipitation, as is done in the MAGICC/SCENGEN analysis, are of limited utility9. The Tanzania Initial National Communication does offer greater regional specificity – although the results should be interpreted with caution as they do not include an uncertainty analysis and rely on one or two older climate models. Under a doubling carbon dioxide scenario some parts of Tanzania are projected to experience increases in annual rainfall, while

4 This analysis uses a combination of the 11 best SCENGEN models (BMRCTR98, CCSRTR96,

CERFTR98, CSI2TR96, CSM_TR98, ECH3TR95, ECH4TR98, GFDLTR90, HAD2TR95, HAD3TR00, PCM_TR00) based on their predictive error for annual precipitation levels. Errors were calculated for each of the models, and for an average of the 17 models. Each model was ranked by its error score, which was computed using the formula 100*[(MODEL-MEAN BASELINE / OBSERVED) - 1.0]. Error scores closest to zero are optimal. The error score for an average of the 17 models was 30%, and the error score for an average of the 11 models was 21%. See the appendix for details.

5 June July August 6 September October November 7 December January February 8 March-April-May 9 A higher resolution analysis across multiple GCMs was beyond the scope of this study.


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precipitation is projected to decline in other areas (see Figure 3). However, the timing of these changes might vary from location to location as well. The National Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Tanzania (Mwandosaya et al. 1998, which is the bases for the Initial National Communication of 2003) estimates that northern and southeastern sectors of the country would experience an increase in rainfall ranging from between 5% and 45% under doubling of carbon dioxide. The central, western, southwestern, southern, and eastern parts of the country might experience a decrease in rainfall of 10% to 15%. The southern highlands might similarly experience a decrease of 10%, which could alter the suitability of this area for maize cultivation. Seasonal patterns in possible changes in rainfall could be complex. For instance, the northeastern sector might experience an increase of 25%-60% in the short rains and an increase of 20-45% in the long rains. Or, the north coastal region might get an increase of 0-20% in the short rains and a decrease of 0-10% in the long rains. In the unimodal region, rainfall might decrease between 0% and 25% in central regions during October, November, and December, but increase by 15% in March, April, and May. Finally, the southeastern sector could get between 5 and 45% increase in rainfall during the first three months of the season and in increase of 10-15% during the last three months.

Figure 3. Change in mean annual rainfall (in %) under 2XCO2

Source: Mwandosaya et al. 1998

The Tanzania National Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (1998) as well as the Initial national Communication (2003) do not include sea-level rise scenarios for Tanzania’s 800 km coastline. Tide gauge records in Tanzania cover only a very short period of time with some missing data. Instead, a coastal vulnerability assessment is conducted under two arbitrary sea level rise scenarios 50cm and 1m, coupled with aerial videotape assisted mapping of coastal topography, resources, and land use. Given the most recent IPCC assessment (the Third Assessment Report), the 50cm scenarios roughly falls in the middle, and the 1m scenarios a little beyond the upper estimate of the range of global sea level rise (9cm-88cm) projected to occur by 2100.

4. Overview of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation responses

Given the large size and widely different climatology and climate change projections and impacts across Tanzania, a national priority ranking might conflate intra-sectoral or sub-national positive and


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negative effects of climate change, and thereby produce misleading results. Therefore, this synthesis highlights the spectrum of possible sectoral and or regional impacts, and identifies critical impacts and vulnerabilities, but without an aggregate sectoral or regional ranking. The section concludes with a discussion of adaptation strategies and priorities for adaptation.

4.1 Agriculture

Agriculture is clearly the most important sector of the Tanzanian economy. It comprised 45.1% of GDP in 2000 (World Bank, 2002). Upwards of 80% of the population of the country relies directly on agriculture of one sort or another for their livelihood. Only 3.3% of the cropland was irrigated as of 1999 (World Bank, 2002). The three most important crops are: maize, coffee and cotton – with maize being a major food staple, coffee a major cash crop grown in large plantations (and contributing significantly to the GNI), while cotton is another cash crop grown largely by smallholder farmers.

Estimates of the affect of climate change on maize yields are available from model runs of the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis model (CERES-Maize) (Jones and Kiniry, 1986). In general, simulation results show that maize yields were lower, a result of higher temperatures and, where applicable, decreased rainfall. The average yield decrease over the entire country was 33%, but simulations produced decreases as high as 84% in the central regions of Dodoma and Tabora. Yields in the northeastern highlands decreased by 22% and in the Lake Victoria region by 17%. The southern highland areas of Mbeya and Songea were estimated to have decreases of 10-15%. These results suggest that climate change may significantly influence future maize yields in Tanzania, reducing them in all zones that were studied, relative to baseline levels. These reductions are due mainly to increases in temperature that shorten the length of the growing season and to decreases in rainfall. Consequently, the continued reliance on maize as a staple crop over wide areas of the country could be at risk. The two cash crops on the other hand are projected to experience increases in yield (Tanzania Initial National Communication 2003). For Lyamunugu, located within an area of bimodal rainfall, coffee yields are expected to increase by 18%, and for Mbozi, where rainfall is unimodal, the coffee yield is expected to increase by 16%. These yield estimates depend critically on estimates of change in precipitation. The potential impacts of climate change on cotton production in Tanzania parallel that for coffee. The agriculture sector thus may have both negative and positive impacts that could partially offset each other. However, maize production in particular might require particular attention for adaptation and mainstreaming responses, given that it is a critical food crop.

4.2 Forests

Tanzania has about 338,000 km2 under forest cover, which represents about 44% of the total land area. These forests are an important source of fuel wood and other products for large numbers of Tanzanians. Furthermore, many of Tanzania’s 43 threatened mammal species, 33 threatened bird species, and prodigious biodiversity depend on its forests (World Bank 2002). Under climate change most of the forests across Tanzania are projected to shift towards drier regimes: from subtropical dry forest, subtropical wet forest, and subtropical thorn woodland to tropical very dry forest, tropical dry forest, and small areas of tropical moist forest respectively (Tanzania Initial National Communication 2003). Much of this projected change in distribution is attributed to an increase in ambient temperatures and a decline in precipitation in forested regions of the country.

Current assessments of climate change impacts on forests in Tanzania however do not explicitly account for the potential effects of climate change on disturbances such as fire. The Kilimanjaro region deserves particular attention. In addition to the well-known glacier retreat and eventual disappearance of the ice cap, there might be major changes in the extent, distribution, and species composition of the forests on the Kilimanjaro as a consequence of changes in fire regimes. There is indication that intensification of


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fire risk as a result of warmer and drier conditions might already be underway. Continued loss of the montane forest belt (which collects a significant amount of water from fog entrapment) from fire intensification would lead to a significant reduction of water yields with serious regional implications, affecting sectors such as agriculture and livestock as well. These issues as well as possible responses on the Kilimanjaro are the focus of in-depth analysis later in this report.

4.3 Water resources

Like the agriculture sector, climate change is projected to have both positive and negative consequences for Tanzania’s water-resources, specifically for the three major river basins: Ruvu, Pangani, and Rufiji. The Ruvu basin, of particular importance because it is upstream of Tanzania’s major population center, Dar es Salaam, could experience a 10% decrease in runoff according to the Initial National Communication (2003). The Pangani basin supplies water to the Tanga, Kilimanjaro, and Arusha regions, supporting a number of economically important activities. These include the Arusha Chini sugar plantations in the Kilimanjaro region, the lower Moshi irrigation scheme, the Handeni District water supply, and a number of important power stations. For the Pagani River, there is some seasonal variation with runoff projected to increase in some months runoff and decrease in others, with annual basin runoff decreasing by an estimated 6%. However, the Kikuletwa River, also within the Pagani Basin, is projected to decrease in all months, with annual reductions of 9%. The Rufiji basin meanwhile is a large catchment in the south of the country, focused on the Great Ruaha River, which is economically important to the nation in part because of the hydropower it generates at Mtera Dam and Kidatu Dam. The national assessment of vulnerability and adaptation (Mwandosaya et al. 1998) projects increases in annual runoff of 5% and 11% at Mtera and Kidatu, respectively, most coming in the period from November to March. All these estimates however are based on scenarios from a single GCM, and should be interpreted with some caution. Real uncertainties exist concerning present and future withdrawals for irrigation, changed land use, and urbanization. Nevertheless, decreases in runoff could potentially have serious affects on socioeconomic activities in the regions of Dar es Salaam, Morogoro, Tanga, Coast, and Kilimanjaro. Dar es Salaam might be particularly vulnerable because it is the largest industrial, commercial, and administrative city in Tanzania.


The coastline of Tanzania is about 800 km long and the coastal zone varies in width from 20 km to 70 km gradually rising to a plateau. Tanzania has relatively limited coastal lowlands, but there are extensive coastal wetlands, some important cities (Dar es Salaam), a number of important islands (such as Zanzibar), and a delta — the Rufigi River (Mwaipopo 2001). The main coastal features include mangrove forests and swamps, coral reefs, sand and mudflats, tidal marshes, woodland, and sisal and cashew nut estates. Mangrove forests in particular represent an important economic resource for coastal people, supplying firewood and timber for the construction of fishing boats, and providing feeding, breeding, and nursery grounds for a number of fish species and a variety of insects, birds, and small animals. The highest densities of population that might be threatened are found near Dar es Salaam and the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba.

The Initial National Communication of Tanzania (2003) considers scenarios of both 0.5 m and 1 m sea level rise over the next century. Maps with a 2 m and 20 m contour were used and it was assumed that land rises linearly from sea level to these contours. The 0.5 m and 1 m contours and the land area they represent were approximated. Estimates of land lost to erosion were also produced with the aid of aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis. Total land-loss is estimated to be 247 km2 and 494 km2 for 0.5 and 1 meters of sea level rise respectively. According to this analysis the Dar es Salaam region would be vulnerable with values of structures at risk estimated to total US$ 48 million for a 0.5 m sea level rise and US$82 million for a 1 m rise (Tanzania Initial National Communication 2003).


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4.5 Human health

Climate plays an important role in the geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of vector species that are responsible for the transmission of a number of human diseases. Changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind patterns will directly affect vector species’ reproduction, development, and longevity. The distribution of vector borne diseases in the human population is also limited by temperature in many regions where the climate is too cold for parasite survival (Martens et al. 1999). Of the various vector borne diseases malaria in particular is a major public health concern in Tanzania. It accounts for 16.7% of all reported deaths in Tanzania and is one of the leading causes of morbidity in all regions, ranging from 24.4% in Rukwa regions to 48.9% in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania Initial National Communication 2003). Also, the problem of malaria is getting worse because of growing parasite resistance to first line anti-malarial drugs and mosquito resistance to insecticides. Malaria is endemic in most of Tanzania even under the current climate. However, many population centers are located in areas where malaria transmission is currently only epidemic or nonexistent. Most of these centers are located in the central highlands region (e.g., Mbeya, Njombe, Iringa, and Arusha), where cooler temperatures prevent or interrupt the transmission of malaria. These areas are of particular concern in considering a warmer climate. Increased temperatures might open new areas to seasonal or year-around transmission. The vulnerability of highland populations to an increase in the endemicity of transmission of malaria, or of any of Tanzania’s population to climate change induced health risks, will depend strongly on the evolution of control methods and the ability of Tanzania to afford such measures (Tol and Dowlatabadi, 2002).

4.6 Energy, industry and transport

Climate change may also have direct and/or indirect effects on Tanzania’s energy, industry, and transportation sectors. Among the direct effects, an increase in temperatures would likely increase energy demands for cooling. Areas projected to have declines in precipitation and or stream flow are also likely to face increased demands for purposes such as irrigation. However, as highlighted by the discussion on climate change scenarios, the projections for changes in precipitation remain highly uncertain. The Tanzania country study also projects decline in stream flow in two key river basins (as discussed in Section 4.3), which will not only increase energy demands for irrigation, but more significantly adversely impact energy supply, given that these two basins are significant contributors to Tanzania’s hydroelectric generation. Transportation infrastructure such as railways, roads, pipelines and ports may also be at risk from impacts of climate change (particularly sea level rise), but specific vulnerability analyses are lacking. Other potential impacts of climate change on energy supply include the vulnerability of the Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay natural gas reserves to sea level rise.

4.7 Overview of adaptation responses

While uncertainties in climate change and impacts projections are a characteristic feature that poses a challenge for anticipatory adaptation for any country, Tanzania’s case has several characteristics that might argue for a differentiated adaptation strategy. First, the climate change projections on which all national impact and vulnerability assessments are based (all the way to the Initial National Communication of 2003) rely on a limited number of older generation of climate models and scenarios, circa early 1990s which has several implications for assessment of impact and adaptation options. For example, an analysis based on more recent climate models conducted as part of this study concludes that the magnitudes of temperature increases projected for Tanzania might be somewhat lower (though the trends are broadly consistent) with the projections used in the National Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation. Thus, information on impacts might need updating in Tanzania prior to the formulation of aggressive adaptation responses, more so than in other countries where projections might be based on more recent models. Second, some key sectors are projected to experience both positive and negative impacts under climate change – for example, while production of maize is projected to decline, the production of two key cash


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crops (coffee and cotton) is projected to increase. Similarly, while stream-flows are projected to decline in two of three key river basins (Ruvu and Pangani), they are projected to increase in the third (Rufiji). The implication for adaptation therefore might be to not only cushion adverse impacts, but also to harness positive opportunities. Finally, a third key characteristic is that unlike most other countries where the need for adaptation relies largely on projections of future impacts, there might be some discernible trends in climate and attendant impacts already underway in Tanzania. This might argue for more immediate adaptation measures in the case of such impacts as opposed to a “wait and see” strategy.

For all the above reasons, there might be a need for a differentiated adaptation strategy across various sectors and regions depending upon the certainty of projections, the mix of beneficial and adverse impacts, and the urgency and timing of such impacts. For the case of agriculture a key portfolio of adaptation responses would involve measures that boost maize production: increased irrigation, increased use of manure and fertilizer, and better use of management tools including climate information. These measures are discussed in Tanzania’s Initial National Communication. However, given that the production of the country’s two cash crops (coffee and cotton) is projected to increase under the same climate scenarios, another adaptation response – which is not discussed in Tanzania’s Initial National Communication - might involve a strategic shift over the medium to the long term from maize towards these cash crops.

With regard to human health, the spread of malaria to the population centers in the highlands as a result of rising temperatures is a key concern. Much of Tanzania however is already malaria endemic, so policy responses might need to be driven by the additionality of the disease burden, and not necessarily the existence of the risk itself. Most roll back malaria programs function in the reactive mode (antimalarial drugs, spraying of insecticides, and elimination of breeding sites), while in the cases of highland areas precautionary adaptation to prevent or limit the spread of malaria to these regions might be ideal.

For coastal resources meanwhile a key priority is to construct regional sea level rise scenarios, that not only incorporate local topography (as has been done) but also subsidence rates. Lacking such specific information, and given the long time-scales at which sea level rise will manifest itself, an initial set of adaptation priorities should ideally focus on no regrets measures in particularly low lying or otherwise vulnerable areas including urban areas as well as coastal wetlands and mangroves, such as the Mafia Island Marine Park, the Menai Bay Conservation Area, and the Misali Island Conservation Area. Coastal zones adaptation priorities may also be synergistic with several ongoing government-donor initiatives including the Conservation of Lowland Coastal Forests Project, the Sustainable Dar es Salaam Project and the Tanzania Coastal Management Partnership.

No regrets adaptation - specifically water and energy conservation – could be a viable initial priority for adaptation in water resources, where stream-flow is projected to decline in two critical river basins (Ruvu and Pangani), affecting water use and hydroelectricity generation. The Tanzania Initial National Communication identifies privatization (as is already the case for Dar es Salaam) as a key adaptation response to promote efficient water use. This measure however may have equity effects as it may result in an increase in price of water making it unaffordable to the poor. Further, given that roughly half of the water in Dar es Salaam is lost to leakage, a second key no regrets response would be leakage prevention – although it would require significant new capital investment and regular maintenance of water infrastructure. Third, given that streamflow in a third river basin – the Rufiji – is projected to increase, another adaptation strategy may revolve around water transfer from Rufiji to Dar es Salaam which relies on the Pangani. However, given that streamflow projections are based upon the results from one water balance model (and dated climate scenarios), and the fact that the costs and environmental impacts of inter-basin transfers are yet to be analyzed, such a response may not be advisable at this time.


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With regard to the energy, industry and transportation sectors, the Tanzania National Action Plan (1997) has conducted a hierarchical screening of potential adaptation responses. Given that climate change is projected to impact energy demands (through rise in temperature), as well as particular sources of energy supply (hydro and to some extent natural gas fields located in coastal areas), these adaptation options focus on either demand side management or on the promotion of energy supply sources that are not impacted by climate change. Figure 4 shows the results of various adaptation responses from this hierarchical screening. A majority of these measures are no-regrets. However some measures – particularly a fuel switch to kerosene – may run into conflict with greenhouse gas mitigation, as they may imply a switch away from an energy source of lower carbon intensity (natural gas and hydro). Therefore, synergy between mitigation and adaptation responses, as well as with other development priorities must also be considered in screening adaptation measures.

Figure 4. Screening of adaptation measures in the energy, industry and transportation sectors

Ranking of Adaptation Measures

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Measures

Wei

ghte

d P

oint

s

Power load shedding

Fuel switch to kerosene

Fuel switch to other fuels

Interconnection

Emergency Power Plants

Minihydro and geothermal plants

Demand Side Management

Efficiency in industry

Change of Products

Import off-road vehicles

Railway Maintenance

Road maintenance

Source: National Action Plan on Climate Change 1997

One area where the need for adaptation may be immediate is the Kilimanjaro ecosystem where climatic changes are likely already contributing to significant impacts on the natural and human system, including the intensification of fire risk, in part a consequence of observed changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and to a lesser extent the retreat of the ice cap. The causes and implications of these impacts, as well as potential responses to them and the potential synergies and conflicts with environmental and development priorities are investigated in-depth later in Section 8.


Tanzania receives large amounts of donor aid, in the order of one billion US$ per year, which is equivalent to about 11% of its GNI. The largest donors, in terms of overall investments, are the World


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Bank (IDA), Japan, and the United Kingdom. Figure 5 displays the distribution of this aid by development sector and by donor.

Figure 5. Development aid to Tanzania (1998-2000

The following sections highlight the possible extent of climate risks to development investments in Tanzania and examine to what extent current and future climate risks are factored in to development strategies and plans, as well as individual development projects 10. Given the large quantity of strategies and projects, our analysis is limited to a selection. This selection was made in three ways (i) a direct request to all OECD DAC members to submit documentation of relevant national and sectoral strategies, as well as individual projects (ii) a direct search for some of the most important documents (including for instance national development plan/PRSP, submissions to the various UN conventions, country and sector strategies from multilateral donors like the World Bank and UNDP, and some of the larger projects in climate-sensitive sectors), and (iii) a pragmatic search (by availability) for further documentation that would be of interest to our analysis (mainly in development databases and on donors’ external websites). Hence, the analysis is not comprehensive, and its conclusions are not necessarily valid for a wider array of development strategies and activities. Nevertheless, the authors feel confident that this limited set allows an identification of some common patterns and questions that might be relevant for development planning.


This section explores the extent to which development activities in Tanzania are affected by climate risks, which gives an indication of the importance of climate considerations in development planning. The extent to which climate risks affect development activities in Tanzania can be gauged by examining the sectoral composition of the total aid portfolio, which is analyzed here using the World


circumstances, including weather phenomena and climate variability on various timescales. In the case of Tanzania, these risks include the effects of seasonal climate anomalies, including droughts, as well as trends therein due to climate change, and risks due to sea level rise. “Current climate risks” refer to climate risks under current climatic conditions, and “future climate risks” to climate risks under future climatic conditions, including climate change and sea level rise.


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Bank/OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database (Box 2). Development activities in sectors such as agriculture, infectious diseases, or water resources could clearly be affected by current climate variability and weather extremes, and consequently also by changing climatic conditions. At the other end of the spectrum, development activities relating to education, gender equality, and governance reform are much less directly affected by climatic circumstances.

Box 2. Creditor Reporting System (CRS) Database

The Creditor Reporting System (CRS) comprises of data on individual aid activities on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and official aid (OA). The system has been in existence since 1967 and is sponsored and operated jointly by the OECD and the World Bank. A subset of the CRS consists of individual grant and loan commitments (from 6000 to 35000 transactions a year) submitted by DAC donors (23 members) on a regular basis. Reporters are asked to supply (in their national currency), detailed financial information on the commitment to the developing country such as: terms of repayment (for loans), tying status and sector allocation. The secretariat converts the amounts of the projects into US dollars using the annual average exchange rates.

In principle, the sectoral selection should include all development activities that may be designed differently depending on whether or not climate risks are taken into account. In that sense, the label “affected by climate risks” has two dimensions. It includes projects that are at risk themselves, such as an investment that could be destroyed by flooding. But it also includes projects that affect the vulnerability of other natural or human systems. For instance, new roads might be fully weatherproof from an engineering standpoint (even for climatic conditions in the far future), but they may also trigger new settlements in high-risk areas, or it may have a negative effect on the resilience of the natural environment, thus exposing the area to increased climate risks. These considerations should be taken into account in project design and implementation. Hence, these projects are also affected by climate risks. A comprehensive evaluation of the extent to which development activities are affected by climate change would require detailed assessments of all relevant development projects as well as analysis of site specific climate change impacts, which was beyond the scope of this analysis. This study instead assesses activities affected by climate risks on the basis of CRS purpose codes (see Appendix B, which identifies “the specific area of the recipient’s economic or social structure which the transfer is intended to foster”)11, 12.

Clearly, any classification that is based solely on sectors suffers from oversimplification. In reality, there is a wide spectrum of exposure to climate risks even within particular sectors. For instance, rain-fed agriculture projects may be much more vulnerable than projects in areas with reliable irrigation. At the same time, the irrigation systems themselves may also be at risk, further complicating the picture. Similarly, most education projects would hardly be affected by climatic circumstances, but school buildings in flood-prone areas may well be at risk. Without an in-depth examination of risks to individual projects, it is impossible to capture such differences. Hence, the sectoral classification only provides a rough first sense about the share of development activities that may be affected by climate risks.

To capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of development activities affected by climate change was calculated in two ways, a rather broad selection, and a more restrictive one. The first selection includes projects dealing with infectious diseases, water supply 11 Each activity can be assigned only one such code; projects spanning several sectors are listed under a

multi-sector code, or in the sector corresponding to the largest component. 12 The OECD study “Aid Activities Targeting the Objectives of the Rio Conventions, 1998-2000” provides a

similar, but much more extensive database analysis. It aimed to identify the commitments of ODA that targeted to objectives of the Rio Conventions. For this purpose, a selection was made of those projects in the CRS database that targeted the Conventions as either their “principal objective”, or “significant objective”.


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and sanitation, transport infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, renewable energy and hydropower13, tourism, urban and rural development, environmental protection, food security, and emergency assistance. The second classification is more restricted. First of all, it excludes projects related to transport and storage. In many countries, these projects make up a relatively large share of the development portfolio, simply due to the large size of individual investments (contrary to investments in softer sectors such as environment, education and health). At the same time, infrastructure projects are usually designed on the basis of detailed engineering studies, which should include attention at least to current climate risks to the project.14 Moreover, the second selection excludes food aid and emergency assistance projects. Except for disaster mitigation components (generally a very minor portion of emergency aid), these activities are generally responsive and planned at short notice. The treatment of risks is thus very different from well-planned projects intended to have long-term development benefits. Together, the first and the second selection give an indication of the range of the share of climate-affected development activities.

In addition, the share of emergency-related activities was calculated. This category includes emergency response and disaster mitigation projects, as well as flood control. The size of this selection gives an indication of the development efforts that are spent on dealing with natural hazards, including, often prominently, climate and weather related disasters.

The implications of this classification should not be overstated. If an activity falls in the “climate-affected” basket, which does not mean that it would always need to be redesigned in the light of climate change or even that one would be able to quantify the extent of current and future climate risks. Instead, the only implication is that climate risks could well be a factor to consider among many other factors to be taken into account in the design of development activities. In some cases, this factor could be marginal. In others, it may well be substantial. In any case, these activities would benefit from a consideration of these risks in their design phase. Hence, one would expect to see some attention being paid to them in project documents, and related sector strategies or parts of national development plans. Figures 6 and 7 show the results of these selections, for the three years 1998, 1999, and 200015.

13 Traditional power plants are not included. Despite their long lifetime, these facilities are so localized

(contrary to, e.g., roads and other transport infrastructure) that climate risks will generally be more limited. Due to the generally large investments involved in such plants, they could have a relatively large influence on the sample, not in proportion with the level of risk involved.

14 Note however, that they often lack attention to trends in climate records, and do not take into account indirect risks of infrastructure projects on the vulnerability of natural and human systems.

15 The three-year sample is intended to even out year-to-year variability in donor commitments. At the time of writing, 2000 was the most recent year for which final CRS data were available. Note that coverage of the CRS is not yet complete. Overall coverage ratios were 83% in 1998, 90% in 1999, and 95% in 2000. Coverage ratios of less than 100% mean that not all ODA/OA activities have been reported in the CRS. For example, data on technical co-operation are missing for Germany and Portugal (except since 1999), and partly missing for France and Japan. Some aid extending agencies of the United States prior to 1999 do not report their activities to the CRS. Greece, Luxembourg and New Zealand do not report to the CRS. Ireland has started to report in 2000. Data are complete on loans by the World Bank, the regional banks (the Inter-American Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the African Development Bank) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development. For the Commission of the European Communities, the data cover grant commitments by the European Development Fund, but are missing for grants financed from the Commission budget and loans by the European Investment Bank (EIB). For the United Nations, the data cover the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) since 2000, and a significant proportion of aid activities of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for 1999. No data are yet available on aid extended through other United Nations agencies. Note also that total aid commitments in the CRS are not directly comparable to the total ODA figures in Figure 5, which exclude most loans.


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Figure 6. Share of aid amounts committed to activities affected by climate risk and to emergency in Tanzania (1998-2000

d a r k : a f fe c te d b y c l im a te r is k s

(h ig h e s t im a te )

2 6 %

7 4 %


(low estimate)

12%

88%


97%

3%

Figure 7. Share (by number) committed to activities affected by climate risk and to emergency activities in Tanzania (1998-2000


(high estimate)

31%

69 %


(high estimate)

21%

79%


96%

4%

Emergency projects make up 3 to 4% of all activities. In monetary terms, between one-eighth and a quarter of all development activities in Tanzania could be affected by climate change. By number, the shares are higher, between about 20 and 30 percent16. In addition to providing insight in the sensitivity of

16 Note that the number of activities gives a less straightforward indication than the dollar amounts. First of

all, activities are listed in the CRS in each year when a transfer of aid has occurred. Hence, when a donor disburses a particular project in three tranches, that project counts three times in our three-year sample. If the financing for a similar three-year project is transferred entirely in the first year, it only counts once. Secondly, the CRS contains a lot of non-activities, including items like “administrative costs of donors”. Moreover, some bilateral donors list individual consultant assignments as separate development activities. In most cases, such transactions will fall outside of the “climate-affected” category. Hence, the share of climate-affected activities relative to the total number of activities (which is diluted by these non-items) is


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development activities in Tanzania as a whole, the classification also gives a sense of the relative exposure of various donors. These results are listed in Table 2 and 3 (again in the years 1998, 1999, and 2000).

Table 2. Relative shares of CRS activities, by total disbursed amounts, for the top-five donors in Tanzania (1998-2000)

Amounts of activities (millions US$)




Donor Amount % Donor

Amount % Donor Amount % Donor

Amount %

Total 2916 100% Total 761 100% Total 356 100% Total 81

100%

UK 524 18% CEC/EDF 134 18%

Germany 50 14% USA 31 39%

IDA 453 16% Denmark 81 11% UK 41 12% AfDF 13 16%

Japan 326 11% Germany 72 9% Japan 38 11% UK 11 13%

CEC/EDF 264 9% Japan 71 9% IFAD 33 9% CEC/EC 8 10%

Denmark 215 7% UK 58 8% Norway 32 9% Sweden 7 8%

Table 3. Relative shares (by number) of CRS activities for the top-five donors in Tanzania (1998-2000)







Sweden 232 13% Ireland 72 13% Ireland 64 17% Switzerl. 16 21%

UK 222 13% UK 67 13% UK 42 11% Sweden 15 20%

Norway 210 12% Norway 53 10% Norway 37 10% UK 14 18%

Ireland 191 11% Sweden 46 9% Sweden 31 8% Norway 6 8%

Germany 124 7% Germany 36 7% Germany 30 8% Finland 5 7%

Given the extensive share of development activities in Tanzania that could be affected by climate risks, one would assume that these risks are reflected in development plans and a large share of development projects. The following sections examine to which extent this is the case.


Tanzania regularly suffers from various climate-related hazards, including droughts that have substantial effects on economic performance and poverty. Many development plans and projects recognize this influence, and Tanzania’s climate even turns up in the context of economic analyses. However, few of the development plans and projects that were reviewed take these risks into account. Given that current climate risks are already being neglected, it comes as no surprise that climate change is often ignored

lower. On the other hand, the shares by total amount tend to be dominated by structural investments (which tend to be more costly than projects in sectors such as health, education, or environmental management).


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altogether. In the few cases where climate change does receive attention, the focus is on mitigation, rather than adaptation.

Several donor strategies recognize Tanzania’s dependence on favourable weather, and the linkages between poverty, drought, and food security. For instance, the AfDB Country Strategy Paper highlights the impact of weather on economic performance: “growth rates have been fluctuating from year to year reflecting the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks. Although strong growth was registered in FY 1996/97 (4.2 percent), it declined to 3.3 percent in FY 1997/98 due to the adverse impact of the drought on agricultural output. The drought was followed by the El-Nino floods late 1997 and early 1998, which destroyed some of the crops and damaged roads, thereby, disrupting internal movement of agricultural commodities as well as export shipments.” IFAD’s Country Strategic Opportunities Paper estimates that the country has a structural food deficit of about 700 tons, with imports rising to up to 1.5 million tons in times of flood or drought. This vulnerability cannot be attributed to weather conditions alone. For instance, the AfDB paper notes that less than 20% of the irrigation potential is utilized, unnecessarily exposing agricultural production to droughts. “While droughts have contributed to water supply problems, the underlying factors include weak institutional capacity in the sector, poor water resource management, and the dilapidated condition of the water schemes and distribution networks in the rural and urban areas resulting from the under-funding of maintenance and rehabilitation.” The UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) also highlights Tanzania’s vulnerability to climate-related disasters, due to natural and human factors: “Natural and man-made disasters erode the coping capacity of the vulnerable population especially in drought-prone areas. There have been poor rains in Central Tanzania for the last three years, and traditional coping strategies are breaking down as land pressure increases. These types of shocks have become a frequent phenomenon in Tanzania in recent years. Floods and droughts, epidemics and crop pests, environmental damage and economic instabilities, have all had their effects on people’s capacity to meet their basic needs and subsequently their ability to survive and pursue their development ambitions and potential”.

Despite these strong linkages between climate and economic performance, as well as the relationships between droughts, environmental degradation and poverty, none of the donor strategies even mentions climate change. Attention to current hazards, particularly droughts, varies from donor to donor. Some of them, including SIDA, Ireland Aid and the EU, do not explicitly recognize the impact of current climate-related risks on the success of development investments. Others, such as DFID and IFAD, have components that aim to address Tanzania’s vulnerability to such risks.

In 2001, a joint “Emergency Consolidated Appeal for the Drought in Tanzania” was launched by a number of UN agencies. Instead of just addressing short-term relief, the appeal intended to address the underlying causes of the chronic droughts, including early warning systems, and drought mitigation measures in Rural and Agricultural Development Strategies. Despite the longer-term focus of the appeal, climate change was not considered.

5.3 Climate risks in selected development programs and projects

None of the (relatively few) development projects that were reviewed paid attention to the risks associated with climate change. For instance, a World Bank forest conservation and management project, which explicitly addresses climate change through carbon uptake, does not address current or future climate-related risks. A regional GEF-funded World Bank project to improve the long-term environmental management of Lake Victoria, does not consider the potential impacts of climate change on the water resources and ecosystems at stake, and a USAID-sponsored coastal management partnership neglects sea level rise in its analysis of integrated coastal zone management options.


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Since attaining its independence in 1961, Tanzania has been addressing its development process through long, medium and short-term development plans and programs, which are developed by the Planning Commission in the Ministry of Planning and Privatization. See Table 4 for an overview on Tanzania’s planning history. The latest medium-term program is the so-called Three Year Rolling Plan and Forward Budget, which rolls on an annual basis and has been in place since 1993/94 up to the present. The major macroeconomic and sectoral policy objectives and cross-sectoral issues included in Tanzania’s plan are poverty alleviation, population, science and technology as well as environmental protection.

Besides, Tanzania also embarks on long term planning, the latest being the National Development Vision 2025, which aims for economic prosperity, equity, self-reliance, the transformation from a rural based agricultural economy to a more diversified and industrialized one, as well as sustainability by the year 2025. Despite the Vision’s long time horizon, climate change is not mentioned. It neither discusses climate-related risks, nor strategies to mitigate or to adapt to them (such as irrigation, reforestation, and crop diversification). Similarly, the shorter-term (5-year) Tanzania Assistance Strategy (“a medium-term framework for promoting local ownership and development partnerships”) does not discuss climate change either. However, climate-related risks, mainly floods and droughts, feature prominently. Besides specific attention to disaster preparedness activities, the plan also advocates the integration of disaster mitigation in Tanzania’s development plans.

Table 4. Tanzania’s main planning documents

National Plans Period

National Development Plans Three Year Plan First Five Year Plan Second Five Year Plan Third Five Year Plan First Union Five Year Plan Second Union Five Year Plan Three Year Rolling Plan and Forward Budget (rolls annually)

1961-1963/64 1964/65-1968/69 1969/70-1973/74 1976/77-1980/81 1981/82-1985/86 1988/89-1992/93 1993/94 to date

Emergency Plans National Economic Survival Programme Structural Adjustment Programme Economic Recovery Programme (ERP-I) Economic Recovery Programme (ERP-II)

1982 1983-85 1986/87-1988/89 1989/90-1991/92

Long Term Perspective Plans 15 Year Development Plan 20 Year Development Plan National Development Vision 2025

1964-1980 1981-2000 1998-2025

In 1997 Tanzania developed a first National Action Plan on Climate Change, which contained an inventory of emissions by source and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases based on 1990 data. Besides the Action Plan, various studies focusing on technological and other options for mitigating greenhouse gases in Tanzania as well as on the assessment of vulnerabilities and possible adaptation measures have been completed. Tanzania has also signed or ratified a number of multilateral environmental agreements, and has a number of national level environmental and sectoral plans that intersect with responses that may be required to manage climate variability and long term climate change.


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6.1 National Action Plan on Climate Change

The National Action Plan on Climate Change was developed in 1997 and has different objectives for various timeframes:

6.1.1 Short term program (Year 1 - 2)

In the beginning efforts should be undertaken to raise awareness of possible impacts stemming from climate change on various social and economic activities. The overall aim of these meetings would be to explore possibilities of how current activities or sectoral plans could complement climate change mitigation options. Besides, there is a need to analyze the effects of governmental macroeconomic policies in relation to climate change.

6.1.2 Medium term program (Year 2 - 5)

In the medium term, projects already internalizing climate change aspects, especially those reducing GHG emissions, should be supported. Support will either be sought from internal such as the Government budget or from external sources. In addition, climate change aspects should be included into the educational curriculum, preferably starting at secondary school level. Also, the Government should start introducing environmental economic instruments such as fiscal measures (pollution taxes, input taxes, product taxes, import tariffs, royalties , land user taxes, tax differentiation etc), property rights (ownership right, user right, and development rights], and performance bonds (land reclamation bond, waste delivery bond, environmental performance bond, etc.) as incentives to increase environmental conservation.

6.1.3 Long term program (Year 10 - 20)

In the long-term, large projects in the energy and transport sector should be undertaken. In addition, adaptation measures to cope with a rising sea level and its adverse effects on coastal infrastructures should be implemented.

6.2 National communications to international environmental agreements

Tanzania is a party to various international environmental agreements, including the UNFCCC, UNCCD, and UNCBD. Tanzania recently submitted its Initial National Communication to the UN FCCC (in July 2003), and is currently preparing a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA).

While Tanzania’s National Report to the UN Convention on Biodiversity does not mention climate change at all, its First National Report to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification refers only to climate change mitigation mainly through the diversification of Tanzania’s energy resources. The Second National Report to the UNCCD, however, does highlight the linkages between climate change and desertification. It also notes that desertification programs have been quite successful, not only in terms of awareness raising, but also by mainstreaming desertification concerns in national and sectoral plans and policies.

Tanzania’s National Report to World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002) refers to the national vulnerability and adaptation assessment, and explicitly lists agriculture, water resources, forestry, grasslands, livestock, coastal resources and wildlife and biodiversity as vulnerable to climate change. Nevertheless, adaptation receives very little attention (except in agriculture, where further work is planned), in sharp contrast to mitigation, which is discussed extensively. Several components of potential climate change adaptation strategies are included in efforts to address current-day vulnerability to climate-related risks, including better water management, for instance in the context of irrigation development, and research on drought-resistant, high-yield crops.


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6.3 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)

Although Tanzania’s PRSP recognizes the grave impact of weather and climate hazards on development, and particularly on the poor, it neglects climate change. The important impact of climate-related risks, however, is clearly recognized. For instance, stakeholder groups that were interviewed in preparation for the poverty strategy voiced their worries: “A major concern of the poor is their vulnerability to unpredictable events. In Tanzania, famine often results from either floods or drought. Since the mid-1990s, Tanzania has in fact experienced a series of adverse weather conditions, which undermined food security. […] There is, therefore, a growing need for safety-nets.” In response, the PRSP lists a number of activities to reduce this vulnerability, including early warning systems, irrigation, better food supply systems, development of drought resistant crops, facilitation of the provision of adequate, safe and clean water to the rural areas from 48.5% population coverage in 2000 to 85% by 2010, promotion of the use of rainwater harvesting and sustained efforts in reforestation as well as sustained efforts in adaptation.

The PRSP progress report, which was published a year later, notes that agricultural growth has been lagging behind expectation “owing to adverse weather and the collapse of export prices”. Despite this observation, the report’s response to this lagging growth includes no direct measures to reduce vulnerability to climate risks, not even the ones mentioned in the original PRSP a year earlier. Similarly, these options are also neglected in the World Bank/IMF Joint Staff Assessments of the PRSP and the PRSP progress report, suggesting that climate-related risks do not get much attention in the PRSP oversight process.

6.4 Other national policies of relevance to climate change

Tanzania has put in place a number of environmental and sectoral policies and plans especially during the 1990s, which are intended to increase its ability to cope with current environmental problems as well as with additional risks posed by climate change. The following paragraphs discuss some of the most relevant policies.

The National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP) of 1994 was a first step towards incorporating environmental concerns into national planning and development. NEAP identified six priority environmental concerns, namely land degradation; lack of accessible, good quality water for both urban and rural inhabitants; pollution; loss of wildlife habitats; deterioration of marine and freshwater systems; and deforestation. In order to address these issues the National Environmental Policy (NEP) was promulgated in December 1997 to provide a framework for mainstreaming environmental considerations into the decision-making processes in Tanzania. Though NEP does not pay explicit attention to climate change, the primary environmental issues brought forward include many of the concerns that would be addressed by no-regrets climate change adaptation measures. In particular, the NEP highlights the importance of integrating environmental management in several sectoral programs and policies.

A particularly strong example of such integration is found in the agriculture sector, which is crucial for food security and the eradication of rural poverty. The NEP, for example, proposes “the improvement of land husbandry through soil erosion control and soil fertility improvement; the minimization of encroachment in public lands including forests, woodlands, wetlands, and pastures; the strengthening of environmentally sound use, monitoring, registration and management of agrochemicals; as well as the improvement in water use efficiency in irrigation, including control of water logging and salinization.” In addition, the forestry section of NEP is most explicit in giving attention to cross-sectoral environmental issues: “the main objective is the development of sustainable regimes for soil conservation and forest protection, taking into account the close linkages between desertification, deforestation, freshwater availability, climate change, and biological diversity.” The only other paragraph in the NEP that relates to climate change reads as follows “The need to undertake climate studies in order to come up


29

with mitigation options is stressed. In view of Tanzania’s vulnerability to climate variations, an assessment of impacts of climate change and climate variations will be undertaken. In this regard strategies will be evolved to ensure that options which are pursued do not unduly sacrifice national development endeavors.”

Similarly, the 1998 National Forestry Policy (NFP), which is a review of the 1953 one, gives no direct references to climate change despite the vulnerability of Tanzanian forests to changed climatic conditions. One of the main objectives of the NFP is to ensure ecosystem stability through conservation of forest biodiversity, water catchments, and soil fertility. The policy states that new forest reserves for conservation will be established in areas of high biodiversity value and that biodiversity conservation and management will be included in the management plans for all protected forests. This policy is a great departure from the traditional forestry approach of command-and-control by involving communities and other stakeholders through joint management agreements.

Likewise, despite the criticality of climate change impacts on water resources the new National Water Policy (NAWAPO), which has been approved by the Tanzanian cabinet in July 2002, does not explicitly mention the issue. Nonetheless, the NAWAPO is participatory, multi-sectoral, river-basin based and tries to integrate land use with water use and water quality as well as quantity. The four key issues in the revised policy are 1) the demand respond approach, which leads to community ownership and management of water and sanitation facilities; 2) private sector participation; 3) integration of water supply and sanitation and finally 4) decentralization of service delivery from central government to district councils.

7. Climate change and Mount Kilimanjaro

Mount Kilimanjaro derives its name from the Swahili words Kilima Njaro meaning “shining mountain”, a reference to its legendary ice cap. It is the retreat of this ice cap, arguably linked to rising temperatures, that has made the Kilimanjaro a prominent symbol of the impacts of global climate change. Beyond the symbolism of the ice cap Kilimanjaro is also a hot spot of biodiversity with nearly 3000 plant species and providing a range of critical ecosystem services to over one million local inhabitants who depend on it for their livelihoods, as well as to the broader region that depends on water resources that originate at the Kilimanjaro. The Kilimanjaro ecosystem is also subject to wide ranging impacts that may be more directly attributable to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and which may have far greater significance than the melting of the ice cap itself. This in-depth analysis has two objectives: (i) to provide an overview on the impact of climatic changes on Mt. Kilimanjaro and on the resulting impacts on the environment, ecosystems and on the human population; and (ii) to describe adaptation responses to reduce or manage some of the most critical impacts and their synergy or conflict with other environmental and development priorities.

Mt. Kilimanjaro is located 300 km south of the equator in Tanzania, on the border with Kenya. It is the highest mountain in Africa, a huge strato-volcano (ca. 90 by 60 km), composed of three single peaks, Kibo, Mawenzi and Shira that reach respectively an altitude of 5,895, 5,149 and 3,962 meters (Figure 8). Kilimanjaro is also the world’s highest free standing mountain, looming 5,000 meters above an open undulating plain that averages around 1,000 meters above sea level. The morphology of the upper areas of Mt. Kilimanjaro is formed by glaciers which reached down to an altitude of 3000 m above sea level (asl) during the ice age (Downie & Wilkinson 1972, Hastenrath 1984).


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Figure 8. Mount Kilimanjaro

7.1 Climate, glaciers, and hydrology

Mt. Kilimanjaro is characterized by a typical equatorial day-time climate. Due to its near-equator location, it experiences two distinct rainy seasons: the long rains from March to May forming the main rainy season; and the short, but heavy rains centered on the month of November of the small rainy season. The driest period falls into the months from July to October, while April and May are the wettest months. However, rainfall and temperature vary with altitude and exposure due to the dominant wind blowing from the Indian Ocean. Annual rainfall reaches a maximum of around 3,000 mm at 2,100 meters on the central southern slope in the lower part of the forest belt, clearly exceeding precipitation on other East African high mountains (HEMP 2001a). Higher up at 2,400, 2,700 and 3,000 meters, approximately 90, 70 and 50% respectively of this maximum precipitation has been observed. The northern slopes, on the leeward side of the mountain, receive much less annual rainfall (Figure 9).

The mean annual temperature in Moshi township (813 m) is 23.4°C (Walter et al. 1975). It decreases to 9.2°C at an altitude of 3100 m, 5.0°C at 4000 m (HEMP, unpub. data) and –7.1°C on top of the Kibo peak at about 5800 m (Thompson et al. 2002), with a lapse rate of about 0.6°C per 100 m increase in altitude. The climate in the alpine belt above 3500-4000 m is characterized by extremes, with nightly frosts and intense sunshine during daytime all year round (HEDBERG 1964).

Kilimanjaro represents a rare instance of the occurrence of glaciers in equatorial regions and like the glaciers of Rwenzori and Mt. Kenya these are a relic of the colder and wetter climatic conditions of the region during the Pleistocene (Downie & Wilkinson 1972). At present permanent ice exists only on Kibo - covering an area of 2.6 km2 (Thompson et al. 2002). Yet, the distribution of moraines reaching down to an altitude of 3000 m indicates that a much greater area of the mountain was formerly covered by ice (Downie & Wilkinson 1972, Hastenrath 1984).

Mt. Kilimanjaro is a critical water catchment for both Tanzania and Kenya. High rainfall and extensive forests give Mt. Kilimanjaro its high catchment value. The southern and the south-eastern forest slopes form the main upper catchments of the Pangani River, one of Tanzania’s largest rivers, which drains into the Indian Ocean near Tanga. Although the greater aridity of the northern slopes is reflected in a sparser network of valleys on this side, in their shallower cross-section and in the general absence of running water above 3000 m (Downie & Wilkinson 1972), the north-western slopes form the catchment of


31

the Tsavo River, a tributary of the Galana River, one of Kenya’s major rivers. The Amboseli National Park in Kenya also depends on the hydrology of Mt. Kilimanjaro17.

Figure 9. Annual precipitation on Mt. Kilimanjaro

Source: Hemp 2001a

Mt. Kilimanjaro’s ice cap is relatively small in comparison to its height and surface area and its contribution in developing water sources must be assumed to be equally slight (Ramsay 1965)18. Very few streams originate in this zone and most of these have small flows. In contrast, the montane forest belt between 1600 and 3100 m provides most of the water (96%) coming from the mountain (Ramsay 1965). In

17 Further afield in Kenya, it is likely that the mountain has an effect on Ol Turesh swamp and possibly

Mzima Springs, whose primary catchment is the Chyulu Hills. 18 Only Weru-Weru and Kikafu River, important branches in the headwaters of the Pangani River, are linked

by permanent streams to glaciers on the south-west edge of Kibo. The relatively few springs between the ice cap and the forest belt indicate that the percolation of melt water downwards through the permeable surface volcanic ash is small as well. Therefore - except below the glaciers of south-west Kibo - the valleys above 3600 m are dry for a large part of the year (Downie & Wilkinson 1972).


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this zone the rainfall is very high while evaporation losses are low due to an almost permanent cloud cover. A great amount of water from this zone flows underground, directly to the savanna plains.

7.2 Ecosystems, biodiversity and land tenure on Mount Kilimanjaro

The Kilimanjaro Region consists of six administrative districts: Moshi Rural (1,713 km2), Moshi Urban (58 km2), Hai (2,111 km2), Rombo (1,442 km2), Same (5,186 km2) and Mwanga (2,698 km2) of which only the four former are immediately adjacent to Mt. Kilimanjaro. Regional headquarter is Moshi. Most of the forest is part of the Mt. Kilimanjaro Forest Reserve (107,828 ha). The upper areas of Mt. Kilimanjaro that lie above the 2,700 meters contour fall within Kilimanjaro National Park with 75,575 ha. Mt. Kilimanjaro has a rich diversity of ecosystems, particularly of vegetation types that result mainly from a large range in altitude and rainfall (summarized in Table 5). Due to the high diversity of its ecosystems, Mt. Kilimanjaro is also very rich in fauna and flora, including about 2200 vascular plant species and 140 mammals. Details on the fauna and flora on Mt. Kilimanjaro are summarized in Box 3 and 4 respectively.

Kilimanjaro is one of the main agricultural regions of Tanzania contributing approximately 30% of the country’s high quality Arabica coffee in 1985/1986 (O’KTING´ATI & KESSY 1991). In addition to coffee the other cash crops are sugar cane, sisal, pyrethrum and cotton. Mt. Kilimanjaro is also important in terms of food crops such as bananas, beans, rice and millet. Most of this activity on the southern and (north) eastern slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro is performed by smallholders of the Chagga tribe, who use the vegetation zones in various ways (see Table 6), depending on the climatic conditions (cp. HEMP et al. 1999). On the southern slopes of the mountain, the area below the montane forest was traditionally divided into two zones. The upper part, the highland area of the irrigated banana belt in the submontane zone (“kihamba” land), was permanently cultivated and inhabited by the Chagga for reasons of suitable climate and defense against the Masai. The lower part, the “shamba” land of the colline savanna zone was cultivated seasonally and provided annual crops like maize, beans and finger millet as well as fodder for cattle.

Box 3. Flora of Mount Kilimanjaro

About 2,200 vascular plant species occur on Mt. Kilimanjaro (HEMP, unpub. data). These are 22% of the approximately 10,000 vascular plant species of Tanzania (BRENAN 1978). Dissecting diversity into different types of habitats or formations, the forest belt is the most important habitat in terms of species diversity on Mt. Kilimanjaro. Nearly 900 species occur in the forests of Kilimanjaro, representing roughly 45% of the whole vascular flora (HEMP, unpub. data). Besides the richness in epiphytes another prominent feature of the forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro is the wealth of ferns, especially on the southern slope, due to the high humidity. 145 taxa of pteridophytes, constituting roughly 35% of the pteridophyte flora of Tanzania, occur on the mountain, most of them (over 90%) in the forests (HEMP 2001 a, b, 2002). The number of vascular plants capable of enduring the harsh climate conditions in the alpine zone is rather small – together with the ericaceous subalpine zone Kilimanjaro harbours in its alpine belt only 350 species of vascular plants (HEMP, unpub. data), 13 of which are endemic to Kilimanjaro (HEDBERG 1961). About 600 species of bryophytes (of which 415 are mosses and 185 are liverworts) and approximately 120 lichens occur on Mt. Kilimanjaro. 12 bryophytes are strict endemics. The richest belt for bryophytes is between 2100-4100 m (PÓCS 1991).


33

Table 5. Altitudinal zones and main vegetation units at Mount Kilimanjaro

Altitude (meters) Main vegetation type

Altitudinal zone according to Hemp (2001 a)

4400

Cushion vegetation (Helichrysum) 11

low

er

Alp

ine

3800

Erica shrubland, Helichrysum cushion vegetation 10

uppe

r

Erica shrubland, Erica excelsa forest, Hagenia-Rapanea forest 9

mid

dle

2800

Erica excelsa forest, Podocarpus forest, moorland 8

low

er

Sub

alpi

ne

2700

Podocarpus-Ocotea forest, Erica excelsa forest 7

uppe

r

Ocotea-Podocarpus forest 6 m

iddl

e

Agauria-Ocotea forest, Cassipourea forest 5

1600

Agauria-Ocotea forest, coffee-banana plantations, Bulbostylis meadows 4

low

er

Mon

tane

1500

Coffee-banana plantations, Croton-Olea forest, Hyparrhenia meadows 3

uppe

r

900

Coffee-banana plantations, savanna bushland and grassland, agriculture, pasture 2

low

er

Sub

mon

tane

800

700 Savanna bushland and grassland, agriculture, pasture 1 Colline


34

Box 4. Fauna of Mount Kilimanjaro

GRIMSHAW et al. (1995) recorded about 140 species of mammals for Mt. Kilimanjaro, a number far exceeding the diversity known for Mt. Kenya (GATHAARA 1999). Among them, 87 species are regarded as being pure forest species. Black Rhinoceros is now extinct in the area, as possibly are reedbuck and klipspringer. Twenty four antelope species are recorded in the area, as well as 25 species of carnivores and 7 species of primates. The forest is home to the largest known population of Abbot’s duiker, which is globally threatened. There are also 25 species of bats (Chiroptera).

SJÖSTEDT (1909) listed 405 bird species in his expedition report for Mt. Meru and Mt. Kilimanjaro, while GRIMSHAW (1996) gives a number of 179 highland bird species inhabiting Mt. Kilimanjaro. In an ethno-zoological study, 82 bird species were recorded on the southern slopes in the area of the Chagga home gardens, mostly from an altitude of 1400 m (Hemp et al. 1999) reflecting the high diversity of bird habitats. 4 bird species which are globally threatened occur on Kilimanjaro. These are Lesser Kestrel, the Taita Falcon, the Corncrake and Abbot´s Starling. The Madagascar Pond-Heron and the Pallid Harrier are near threatened species

418 reptile species are recorded for East Africa of which 302 are listed for Tanzania. The habitat range of 88 reptile species lies within Mt. Kilimanjaro (SPAWL et al. 2002). Thus Kilimanjaro harbours about 21% of the reptile fauna of East Africa and 29% of Tanzania. The side-spotted dwarf gecko (Lygodactylus laterimaculatus) known only from Mt. Kilimanjaro and the Taita Hills, and the Mt. Kilimanjaro two-horned Chameleon (Chameleo tavetanus) occurring on Mt. Kilimanjaro and Mt. Meru, the adjacent North and South Pare Mts., and the Chyulu and Taita Hills in Kenya are locally restricted species.

SJÖSTEDT recorded 1,310 species of beetles (Coleoptera), 594 Hymenoptera, 447 bugs and allies (Hemiptera), and 537 butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera) species for the area including Mt. Meru, but with a main focus on Mt. Kilimanjaro. The insect materials collected highlight the diversity of Mt. Kilimanjaro and the large number of endemic species: 47 of the 107 known Homoptera species were endemic to the mountain, as well as 27 of the 57 recorded Darkling beetles (Tenebrionidae). A high rate of endemism was also recorded for the Rove beetles (Staphylinidae, 39% endemism), the Scarab beetles (Scarabaeidae, 25% endemism) and the long-horned beetles (Cerambycidae, 36% endemism in the mountain among all species known in East Africa) (FORCHHAMMER & BREUNING 1986; HEMP &

WINTER 1999; HEMP, C., 2001). Grasshoppers and locusts (Saltatoria) have been well studied on Mt. Kilimanjaro; 140 species of Acridoidea have been collected around the mountain in the past 10 years (HEMP & HEMP, in press), which represent 33% of the species found in entire Tanzania according to a list published by JOHNSEN & FORCHHAMMER (1975). Together with the Ensifera, about 190 species of Saltatoria are recorded on the mountain, of which 12 species are only known from Mt. Kilimanjaro localities (HEMP, C., in press), and three species are still un-described, representing 8% endemism in this insect group.

439 species of Odonata are reported for East Africa of which 171 occur in Tanzania (CLAUSNITZER 2001). Nevertheless, the number of dragonflies recorded for Tanzania is constantly growing with every field survey due to the very poor original data base. There are 16 species restricted to Tanzania which means a share of 9% endemism of dragonflies for Tanzania. Mt. Kilimanjaro alone harbours 85 species (20%), among them are 14 species typical for montane areas (17%) (CLAUSNITZER, pers. comm.). In comparison to other montane habitats of volcanic origin in East Africa, Kilimanjaro, though being the youngest, shows an unusual high diversity due to Eastern Arc species, which reached Kilimanjaro via the adjacent North Pare Mountains. Thus, this particular insect group exemplary reflects the high diversity of habitats on Kilimanjaro.


35

Table 6. Land-use in the different vegetation zones of Mount Kilimanjaro

Altitude (meters) Land-use Altitudinal zone

3200 2700

• South eastern slopes: forest border with tussock grasses and giant lobelias are fringed by so-called moorland zones into Erica bushland at steeper slopes

• Tussock grassland, although already situated in the Kilimanjaro National Park (KINAPA), is in some areas cut by fodder collectors

• Bee hives were seen up to over 3000 m with bees sucking on Erica. Except for the tourist climbing routes the afro-alpine zone of the National Park is mostly undisturbed by direct human impact

Subalpine zone

1700

• Southern and eastern slope: half-mile forest strip ranges between the plantation belt and the forest reserve; provides timber and firewood (mostly pines, cypress and eucalyptus)

• Meadows reach far into the montane forest, especially along the rivers

• Forest strip grades into natural montane forest, which should be excluded as “forest reserve” from any usage. Nevertheless, since the 1950s about 12% of the forest was changed into cypress and pine plantations

• Northern, north eastern and western slope: large forest plantations • Honey collectors also frequent the montane forest zone • Special type of land use: Shamba (Taungay) system practices (allowing

local farmers to inter-crop annual agricultural crops – mainly potatoes, carrots and cabbage – with tree seedlings in forest plantation areas until the third year of tree growth. By the third year, the young tree canopy casts too much shade for the normal growth of agricultural crops. At this point farmers move out and are allocated another plot, if available)

Montane forest

1000

• Most intensively cultivated by the Chagga (population density 500 person per km2)

• Tree layer provides firewood, fodder and shadow, banana trees (in about 25 varieties)

• Network of irrigation canals • The Chagga live among their home gardens in single dwellings, villages as

such do not exist

• Livestock like cattle, goats, sheep and pigs, sometimes even chicken, are kept in stalls

• Bee-keeping plays an important role (Two bee species are kept: the bigger, stinging honey-bee Apis mellifera ssp. monticola resembling the European honey-bee, and a small stingless bee of the genus Meliponula)

Submontane coffee-banana zone

700

• Southern foothills: most areas planted with maize and beans • North-eastern foothills: maize, finger millet (important ingredient of local

beer), pigeon peas, groundnuts and sunflowers • Western and north western foothill: large farms owned by big companies or

the government growing mainly wheat • East of Moshi: rice • South of Moshi: sugar plantations

Colline savanna zone

7.3 Climatic trends on Mount Kilimanjaro

Over the past millennium, equatorial East Africa has witnessed a series of contrasting climate conditions19. A drastic climatic dislocation took place during the last two decades of the 19th century,

19 A significantly drier climate than today occurred during the “Medieval Warm Period” (~AD 1000-1270)

and a relatively wet climate during the so-called “Little Ice Age” (~AD 1270-1850), which was interrupted


36

manifested in a drop of lake levels and in the onset of glacier recession (Hastenrath 1984, 2001, Verschuren et al. 2000, Nicholson 2000, Nicholson & Yin 2001)20. A decrease in the annual precipitation of the order of 150 mm with attendant albedo and change of cloudiness during the last quarter of the 19th century constitutes also the most likely cause of the retreat of the Lewis Glacier on Mt. Kenya. In contrast, the continuation of ice retreat beyond the early decades of the 20th century – as is the case for Kilimanjaro – has been favored by a warming trend (Kruss 1983). Further, weather patterns on the Kilimanjaro are intricately linked to landscape characteristics (e. g. Altmann et al. 2002)21. During the past few decades vast savanna woodlands have increasingly been turned to agricultural use and thousands of hectares of forest cover on the mountain have been destroyed by logging and burning. Whether such reciprocal effects caused by (mostly man-made) landscape changes or whether climatic changes are of higher influence on the Kilimanjaro remains an open question.

The most striking and most easily recognizable evidence for a steady change in regional climatic conditions on Mt. Kilimanjaro, directly influencing landscape characteristics, are the vanishing glaciers. As there are no signs of an increasing volcanic activity on a major scale this phenomenon has to be linked to climatic conditions. Also, the fact that such glacier retreat is coincident with similar patterns elsewhere around the globe leads to the assumption that their causes are also of a global character (Kaser 1999). In contrast to this direct climatic impact, there are other even larger landscape changes, which are linked indirectly to changing weather conditions. During the last century not only were the glaciers melting rapidly, but there was also a significant increase in number and intensity of wild fires on Mt. Kilimanjaro, which are most likely caused by the same climatic changes and which are simultaneously enhanced by human influence. Changing weather patterns influence not only landscape characteristics but also animal distributions (cp. Altmann et al. 2002). A changing migration behavior and population dynamic of big game has been observed in the forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro.

Analysis of proxy data reveals that annual precipitation decreased by 150 mm, this means a lapse rate of 7.5 mm/year between about 1880 and 1900. Since 1935 there are actual daily rainfall records from the Lyamungu Coffee Research Institute which is located at an altitude of 1200 meters in the submontane cultivated zone on the southern slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro. The annualized values are shown in Figure 10.

by three episodes of several decades of persistent aridity more severe than any recorded drought of the twentieth century (Verschuren et al. 2000).

20 This glacier recession was caused by enhanced solar radiation due to diminished cloud cover which accompanied the reduced precipitation. The drastic drop of the water level of Lake Victoria from around 1880 to the turn of the century was caused by a reduction in annual precipitation of about 150-200 mm (Hastenrath 1984). These data are apparently indicative of an important precipitation reduction throughout an area exceeding East Africa (cp. the variations of the water level of Lake Chad (Street-Perrott & Perrott 1990), where severe droughts started from the year 1900), followed by little secular precipitation variation.

21 The role of temperature and rainfall in shaping the landscape has long been recognized. More recently both empirical evidence and mathematical models have highlighted the reciprocal impact of landscape changes on weather patterns.


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Figure 10. Annual precipitation at the Lyamungu Coffee Research Institute

Source: Lyamungu Coffee Research Institute

It appears that there is a decrease in precipitation since 1935 of about 11% or 177 mm (equivalent to 2.6 mm/year) at Lyamungo or a lapse rate of 2.6 mm per year. If this rate is extrapolated back to the year 1900 this would mean an annual loss of over 400 mm compared with the situation before 1880.

This records from Lyamungu are consistent with a general reduction in rainfall throughout most of Africa since 1950 (Nicholson 2000) and in the area of Kilimanjaro according to the maps presented by Hay et al. (2002) for the time interval 1941-1995 between 1941-1960 and 1971-1995. In addition to the decline in annual precipitation, the Lyamungo data also reveal that the number of dry months with less than 30 mm increased, whereas wet months with more than 125 mm were stable. With regard to temperature, the maps presented by Hay et al. (2002) indicate that spatially averaged temperatures in the area of Kilimanjaro rose between 1951-1960, were stable or decreased slightly between 1960-1981, and increased again between 1981-1995. While no time-series exists for a particular location on the mountain, there is however a 25-year temperature record (from 1976) from the Amboseli region just to the north (Altmann et al. 2002). This record shows daily temperatures increased dramatically throughout the same 25-year period. Mean daily maximum temperatures increased with a rate of 0.275 °C per annum, with increases being greatest during the hottest months of February and March.

To summarize, available climate records reveal a declining trend in precipitation on the Kilimanjaro at least since 1880. Although available data is not sufficient to infer temperature trends at different altitudes on the mountain, a distinct overall warming trend has been observed for most of the period since 1950 to present. Observations from neighboring Amboseli in fact indicate a local warming rate of 0.275 °C per decade between 1976-2000, significantly higher than globally averaged warming.

Either of these trends – declining precipitation or increasing temperature – contribute to enhanced glacier melting, as well as to enhanced fire risk22. Consistent with the pronounced decrease of precipitation 22 Decreased precipitation reduces cloud cover and therefore enhances the sunlight reaching the glacier,

causing it to melt faster. The effect of increased temperatures on glacier melting is self evident. With


38

at the end of the 19th century fires in the areas of the subalpine forests were documented by the first Europeans on the mountain (Meyer 1890, Volkens 1897, Jaeger 1909). At the same time the glaciers started to recede (Kaser et al. under review) – driven by such changes in precipitation23. In the following decades the climatic situation was more stable while the glaciers changed more slowly (Kaser 1999). Enhanced glacier melt and fire risk have both been empirically observed in recent decades. These effects are consistent with the simultaneity of precipitation decline and temperature increase24 which has been observed during the same time period.

7.4 Potential impacts of climatic changes: glacier retreat

The ice cap on the Kilimanjaro has been in a general state of retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850. This retreat was driven by natural climatic shifts (particularly a decline in regional precipitation), but appears to have accelerated due to the warming observed in the second half of the 20th century. Later in 1976 the glaciers covered 4.2 km2 (Hastenrath & Greischar 1997) compared with only 2.6 km2 in 2000 (Thompson et al. 2002). Measurements taken in 2000-2001 on Kilimanjaro show that its glaciers are not only retreating but also rapidly thinning (Thompson et al. 2002). Figure 11 shows the diminishing extent of the glaciers on Kibo between 1962 and 2000. Over these 38 years, Kilimanjaro has lost approximately 55 % of its glaciers. There is general consensus that the ice cap of Kilimanjaro will have disappeared by the year 2020 for the first time in the surveyed period of over 11,000 years.

Figure 11. Development of the Kilimanjaro (Kibo) ice fields from 1912 to 2000

Source: Thompson et al. 2002

The symbolism of this loss notwithstanding, it is important to note that the impact of the disappearance of the ice cap on the natural and human systems would be very limited. The present glaciers of Kibo cover an area equivalent to 0.2% of the area covered by the forest belt on Mount Kilimanjaro.

regard to forests, drier and hotter conditions both contribute to enhanced inflammability of the forest, thereby enhancing fire risk.

23 The causes of such changes in precipitation are likely natural and not linked to climate change. 24 The warming in recent decades is consistent with climate change.


39

Only two rivers are directly linked by very small streams to the glaciers, while 90% of the precipitation is tapped by the forest belt. Even if the glaciers have melted till 2020 there will still be precipitation on Kibo feeding springs and rivers, although not so continuously and to a much lesser degree.

Therefore, contrary to the opinion expressed by Thompson et al. (2002) it is very unlikely that the loss of the glaciers will have a major impact on the hydrology of the mountain. Kaser et al. (under review) come to the same conclusion. Further, observations of dry river beds are not necessarily an indicator of long term climatic changes or the impact of shrinking glaciers. Dried out rivers in some areas are much more likely the result of forest destruction or of increasing water demands of the rapidly growing population. Water diversion has in fact quadrupled in certain areas during the last 40 years (Sarmett & Faraji 1991).

Today Kilimanjaro National Park (KINAPA) is a major tourist attraction in Tanzania and gains the most foreign exchange of any National Park in Tanzania (Newmark & Nguye 1991). Most visitors are mainly interested in reaching the summit of Kibo, known as Uhuru Peak, the highest point in Africa. Since the establishment of the Park in 1972, the number of visitors of KINAPA has multiplied by five. Without any doubt Mt. Kilimanjaro will lose part of its beauty with the inevitable loss of its glaciers. However, it will still remain the highest mountain in Africa – and incentive enough to climb. Therefore, a decline in tourist numbers is unlikely.

7.5 Potential impacts of climatic changes: enhancement of fire risk

A less publicized and possibly far more significant impact of climate change on Mount Kilimanjaro is the intensification of fire risk and its attendant impacts on biodiversity as well as ecosystem services. In theory rising temperatures should result in the upward migration of vegetation zones, as observed in the Alps by GRABHERR & PAULI (1994). This effect however has been offset by the intensification of fire risk as a result of warmer temperatures and declining precipitation. This risk is particularly acute in the vast ericaceous belt in the upper reaches of the vegetation. Consequently, climatic changes have actually pushed the upper forest line downward on the Kilimanjaro.

On Mt. Kilimanjaro fires are common in the colline savanna zone, in the (sub-) alpine zone and – to a lesser degree – in the submontane and lower montane forest zone, whereas in the middle montane forest zone – at least on the southern slope – fires are rare. Most of these fires are lit by man (often as a maintenance tool), especially in the cultivated areas on the lower reaches of the mountain. The situation however is different in the upper regions of the mountain where no grazing or agriculture exists above the forest belt and logging in the upper forest zone is also rare25. Since climate change is the objective of this analysis, man lit fires are of minor interest. Therefore the destructive role of fires in the forests and in the alpine zone where climatic conditions play a more critical role are the focus of this discussion.

7.5.1 Elevation distribution of species richness and its relationship to fire

Fire variously influences species diversity, composition and vegetation structure in the different altitudinal zones on Kilimanjaro (Hemp, in press). Figure 12 shows the species numbers of vascular plants

25 Although even these remote areas are not free from human influence, as population on the foothills has

increased enormously. Since 1895 population has multiplied by 20. As a result an increasing human activity can be seen in all altitudinal zones and areas, promoted in particular by tourism. Since the establishment of the park in 1972, the number of visitors of KINAPA has multiplied by five. Together with porters, guides and tourists about 100.000 people visit the upper regions of Kilimanjaro per year. Such increasing numbers of visitors have certainly effects on the environment. Thus, the (natural) impacts of the changing climatic conditions are additionally enhanced by human influence.


40

at 100 m elevation intervals between 700 and 4500 m. Vascular plants have their maximum (745 species) in the 1300 - 1400 m interval in the area of the banana-coffee plantations of the submontane zone.

Figure 12. Absolute species numbers of ferns and of all occurring vascular plants on the southern slope of Mount Kilimanjaro

Source: HEMP 2001a

As shown in Figure 12 species numbers are highest in moderately cultivated or disturbed areas and not in natural, completely untouched areas. In this context the second peak at 2600 m at the lower border of the subalpine zone is of interest. In this altitude fire starts to be an important ecological factor on Mt. Kilimanjaro, creating a mosaic of different fire induced stages of forest, shrub and tussock grassland communities. This high diversity in habitats - compared with the closed forest at lower altitudes and the monotonous heath lands at higher altitudes – leads to a high diversity in species numbers. This trend is enhanced by the occurrence of fire-tolerating species, which show the same bimodal altitudinal distribution with a gap in the wettest central forest parts where fires are uncommon. They can therefore be regarded as fire indicators.

7.5.2 Influence of fire on regeneration, composition and structure of forests

Forest fires are frequent in the subalpine zone and also, less frequent in the submontane and lower montane zone between 1300 and 2000 m above sea level (asl). Fires in the submontane and lower montane forests are mostly set by people. In these forests, fire changes species composition and structure of the tree as well as the herb layer (HEMP, A. in press). This is of major importance for forest regeneration, as the dense cover of bracken impedes the sprouting of trees. In the subalpine forests between 2800-3000m asl fire causes sharp discontinuities in the floristic composition and structure26. Once Erica excelsa has established, regeneration of a broad-leaved forest becomes more and more improbable (HEMP & BECK 2001). If the frequency of fire becomes too high it degrades Erica excelsa forests into bush lands in which E. excelsa is substituted by E. trimera and E. arborea. This Erica bush extends between

26 Giant heather (Erica excelsa) becomes dominant at this altitude forming dense mono-specific stands,

which border the Podocarpus and Juniperus forests without any transition (HEMP & BECK 2001).


41

3200 and 3900 m asl. Continuously high frequency of fires destroys this bush vegetation, ultimately resulting in Helichrysum cushion vegetation.

7.5.3 Major impacts of fire on Mount Kilimanjaro’s ecosystem

On Mt. Kilimanjaro structure and composition of the subalpine vegetation is strongly influenced by recurrent fires. Above 3200 m asl Erica excelsa forest is replaced today by Erica trimera and E. arborea bush in most areas. But from field observations and historical descriptions (JAEGER 1909, KLUTE 1920) it can be assumed that the forest extended up to 3600 m in some areas of Kilimanjaro at the beginning of the twentieth century while an open Erica forest was reported at altitudes of over 3900 m; this is 800 m higher than today (HEMP & BECK 2001). On the south-eastern slopes at an altitude of 2800 m Erica excelsa stands and the “moorland” tussock vegetation produce very abrupt boundaries. Tree-islands consisting of a core of Podocarpus forest are surrounded by a fringe of Erica trees and various shrubs. In this area, a mosaic of Podocarpus forest, Erica forest and subalpine grassland occur at the same altitude. Substantial microclimatic differences can thus be ruled out as an explanation for this pattern. Rather, recurrent fires may be the crucial factor pushing the forest back from the subalpine to lower and moister regions.

The comparison of two classified Landsat images from 1976 and 2000 reveals enormous changes in the upper vegetation zones of Mt. Kilimanjaro during the last 24 years (Figures 13 and 14)27.

Figure 13. Vegetation cover in the montane and alpine zone on Mount Kilimanjaro (1976)

27 It should also be mentioned that on Fig. 13 and 14 differences in glacier size are apparent. While in 1976

the glaciers covered 4.2 km2 (HASTENRATH & GREISCHAR 1997) in 2000 they have been shrunk to 2.6 km2 (THOMPSON et al. 2002).


42

Figure 14. Vegetation cover in the montane and alpine zone on Mount Kilimanjaro (2000)

In 1976, the Erica trimera bush, which today is depressed in the western and northern parts of the mountain below 3400 m, reached up as a continuous belt to over 4100 m into an area which today is covered by Helichrysum cushion vegetation. Erica forests covered nearly 5 times the current area (166 and 36 km2 respectively), extending in many places up to 3700 m. This equals a loss of 130 km2 or over 10% of Kilimanjaro’s forest cover due to fire since 1976.

As discussed earlier, Erica vegetation is largely influenced and controlled by fire. The growing influence of fire pushed down the forest line replacing Erica forests with Erica bush. Fire has also shifted the upper border of Erica trimera bush by replacing it with Helichrysum cushion vegetation. The Helichrysum cushion vegetation is not threatened by fire because its little biomass provides little fuel. In addition, distances between vegetation patches and cushions are too high to allow fire to spread. When fire reaches this vegetation zone it stops. Therefore, the upper line of this vegetation formation has been stable for the examined 24 years. On the lower edge, however, fire was able to spread into the Erica bush zone. It can be assumed that most of the Erica bush of the year 1976 as shown in Figure 13 has still been Erica forest at the end of the 19th century while most of the Erica forest of 1976 was still broadleaved forest at that respective time. This constitutes a loss of over 300 km2 of upper montane forest (or a third of the present forest size) during the last 120 years. As a consequence, the ericaceous belt on Kilimanjaro with the easily inflammable heathlands became larger, giving rise to more and bigger fires.

7.5.4 Socioeconomic impact of increasing fire intensity

The increase in fire intensity on the slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro has very significant impacts on both the natural and human systems that it sustains. The most direct impact is a significant decline in water resources; other impacts include effects on farming and other activity, as well as a loss of biodiversity.

7.5.4.1 Water resources

The devastation of 13,000 ha of forests, mostly of Erica forest, in the upper reaches of the Kilimanjaro since 1976 by fire has caused a serious disturbance in the water balance of the entire mountain, given that the forest belt functions as the main water catchment area. Montane and subalpine mossy or cloud forests are of great importance for watersheds in East Africa. They play an active and


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important role in the protection of slopes against erosion by controlling the damaging effects of torrential rainfall and regulating the outflow patterns of watercourses. In cloud forests about one third of the total rainfall is absorbed by the dense epiphytic layer (PÓCS 1976). Destruction of these forests reduces the function of the forest belt as a water filter and reservoir. Instead of remaining in the thick epiphytic biomass, humus and upper soil of the forest, percolating slowly to the groundwater, rainwater flows off quickly on the surface to the rivers eroding the soil and increasing the danger of floods on the foothills. Another consequence of the quicker rate of rain flow is water shortage during periods without rain.

In addition to the function of filtering and storing water the upper montane and subalpine cloud forests have a high potential of collecting cloud water (fog interception). Fog interception or fog deposition refers in this case to the small cloud droplets that do not settle on horizontal surfaces and, thus, are not collected in a rain gauge. Cloud water droplets are blown by the wind against the vegetation where they coalesce to form large drops that run off and fall to the ground. Fog droplets have to be intercepted by the vegetation and do not precipitate spontaneously (cp. CAVELIER et al. 1996, GLASOW & BOTT 1999).

Above 2000 m asl fog and mist occur nearly every day, above 2600 m asl every day. Thus, fog interception increases with altitude, especially its relative share of water input. The amount depends on the height and leaf area index of the vegetation providing wetting capacity for interception, the frequency of fog, and exposure to the prevailing wind (CAVELIER & GOLDSTEIN 1989, CAVELIER et al. 1996, GLASOW

& BOTT 1999, ZIMMERMANN et al. 1999). Several studies suggest that fog can supply different amounts of liquid water to tropical montane cloud forests. In some areas fog interception represents 99% of the water input while in others only 3.5%. In general, fog interception is an important additional water source at sites with regular and frequent occurrence of fog, contributing far more than one third of the bulk precipitation in tropical montane forests (cp. e. g. CAVELIER & GOLDSTEIN 1989, JUVIK & NULLET 1993, CAVELIER et al. 1996). In lower montane tropical rain forests an average of about 16% was measured (CAVELIER et al. 1996).

The following calculations are based on a comprehensive ecological and meteorological database collected by a consultant to this report. A vegetation map was produced by analyzing over 1200 vegetation plots. In addition, 16 meteorological stations along 4 transects inside the forest belt were established, producing the first reliable weather data (rainfall, temperature, air humidity, radiation, wind speed etc.) from this vegetation zone of Mt. Kilimanjaro. Using these data a map of mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature was created. According to the distribution of the different forest types, the annual rainfall, the estimated amounts of cloud water collection and evapotranspiration (based on measured vegetation density, altitude, climatic parameters and numbers given in literature e.g. LARCHER 1984, CAVELLIER et al. 1997) the forest belt was divided in 11 eco-climatic zones. For the first time this approach allows to estimate the water output of the 939 km2 of indigenous forest (excluding forest plantations) of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Table 7).

Table 7. Hydrometrical data of the forest belt on Mount Kilimanjaro

Water Input Water Output Rain (million m3) fog (million m3) Evapotranspiration (million

m3) groundwater and streams (million m3)

1,533.5 560.0 797.4 1296.1 73.3% 26.7% 38.1% 61.9%

The indigenous forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro receive 2093.5 million m3 water annually of which 73% is by rainfall and 27% by fog interception. The intercepted moisture has to be considered to be a net gain, since the energy used in its evaporation from the leaf surfaces during fog-free periods would have been used in transpiration of an equal amount of water from the soil (KERFOOT 1968). In contrast, half of


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the amount of rainwater re-evaporates back to the air by evapo-transpiration. The circa 1,300 million m3 of remaining water percolate into the groundwater or run off as surface flow into streams. The approximately 800 million m3 of water evapo-transpired are not lost for the ecosystem. The forest dampens the air, leading to permanent high air humidity over the forest belt. This results in cloudiness and rain showers even during the dry seasons. Therefore the forest stores water not only in its biomass and the forest soil, but even in its surrounding air. This mechanism enhances the forest’s function as a water reservoir regulating the outflow patterns of watercourses. Without such a permanent cloud cover over the forest evapo-transpiration would be much higher (due to higher temperatures) and rain showers during the dry season would be absent.

In his analysis of the value of East African forests in influencing climate and water supply

NICHOLSON (1936) estimates the condensing capacity of montane forests add up to at least 25% of the total annual rainfall. This amount (in the case of the forests on Kilimanjaro equivalent to 383.4 million m3) has to be added to the 560 million m3 water of fog interception, to get a more reliable impression about the influence of the forest on the water balance. This gives 943.4 million m3 or a surplus of 146 million m3 water (nearly 10% of the rain water input) which forests on Kilimanjaro contribute more to the water balance every year than comparable open areas. Table 7 further shows that fog interception is an important factor in the hydrological balance of the mountain. About one quarter of the atmospheric water input in the forests derives from this source. Without the cloud water collecting forests this water would be lost for the mountain. If the surface and groundwater run-off is compared with only the “ordinary” precipitation, i. e. rainfall, the role of forest for the water production becomes evident.28

Consequently, the loss of 13,000 ha of Erica forest since 1976 results in a water yield reduction of about 58 million m3 of fog water annually. This number represents over 10% of the annual fog water input of the entire forest belt or the equivalent of the annual drinking water demand of nearly three million inhabitants on the mountain (this calculation is based on numbers given by UNITED REPUBLIC OF

TANZANIA & CES 2002). In this calculation, however, are neither the several 10,000 ha of destroyed ericaceous bush land nor the montane forests, which have been lost due to logging activities included.

Since the Chagga with their irrigation system are highly dependent on a steady river discharge changes to the water balance present a serious threat to their existence. During the dry seasons water shortages especially on the lower foothills become increasingly common. Women and children have to spend a big part of the day fetching water. Yet, the water demand grows rapidly. The hydrometric report of the Hai district water supply Phase IV (UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA & CES 2002) referring to an selected area on the south western, western and northern parts of the mountain presents the following numbers: Currently, population in this area totals 132,258 inhabitants with a daily demand of 7,200 m³ water and it is expected to rise until 2015 to 162,570 inhabitants demanding daily about 8,900 m³ water.

Besides, the situation on Mt. Kilimanjaro affects the entire region. The Pangani River, one of Tanzania’s largest rivers, provides water to the hydropower plants of Nyumba ya Mungu (8 MW), Hale (17 MW) and Pangani Falls (66 MW), which generate some 20% of Tanzania’s total electricity output. A water shortage during the dry periods would increase the number of power cuts which have already inhibit economic prosperity. Fishing in Nyumba ya Mungu dam yields a maximum catch of approximately 4,000 tonnes annually. The river also supplies the large scale South-East Moshi rice scheme. Furthermore, the

28 Although in general water output by run off is lower than the input caused by rains, this relation varies

within the 11 distinguished eco-climatic zones. In the relatively dry submontane Croton-Calodendrum forests the run-off counts only to 40% of the rainwater input. In higher altitudes with lower evapo-transpiration but higher fog interception this ratio turns: In the Juniperus forests above 2600 m the total water run-off is 110% of the rainfall input. This is due to the additional water available from fog deposition. In the Podocarpus, Hagenia and Erica forests this ratio lies even higher at 120%.


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southern slopes provide water to Arusha Chini sugarcane plantation. In Kenya, the Amboseli ecosystem including the wetlands of Ol Tukai and Kimana, which support Masai pastoralists and an abundance of wildlife, depend on the Kilimanjaro water supplies.

7.5.4.2 Other ecosystem services diminished by fire

Forest fires do not only reduce the water budget of the mountain, but they also directly and indirectly destroy other goods and benefits. Forest fires burn huge amounts of precious wood including fire wood, which people are allowed to collect, and timber, which people cut illegally. Besides, fires reduce the beauty of the heathlands that attract tourists and destroy the flower trees for bees. Bee-keeping is important on Mt. Kilimanjaro. An ethnobotanical study (HEMP 1999) showed that the Chagga make use of their plant environment in a variety of ways. The plants serve as forage for households and agricultural purposes, and many are used in medicinal applications either as drugs or for “magic” purposes. The montane forest is home to many of such plants. In addition, repeated burning also modifies the nutrient balance of soils (CRUTZEN & ANDREAE 1990).

7.6 Other threats to the Mount Kilimanjaro ecosystem

The climate related threats to the Kilimanjaro ecosystem need to be viewed in conjunction with other stresses stemming from human activities as well as changed migration behavior and population dynamics of big game. The results of a 2001 aerial survey (LAMBRECHTS et al. 2002) and the examination ground data revealed that the forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro are heavily impacted by illegal logging of indigenous trees in most areas below 2,500 metres on the western, southern and eastern slopes, and by the establishment of forest villages in the western and northern slopes. Logging activities affect the entire broadleaved mixed forests below an altitude of 2,500 metres on the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro. The moist Ocotea forests which cover most of the southern slopes are subject to serious destruction due to intensive illegal logging of camphor trees.29

In addition, large tracts of indigenous forests on the north-western and northern slopes have been converted into forest plantation, using fast growing exotic tree species, such as pine and cypress. On the north western slopes, the expansion of the forest plantations has reduced the indigenous forest belt to a width of less than one kilometer. The majority of the clear felled compartments within the forest plantations have not been replanted as required by the normal rotation management. To summarize, the aerial survey revealed that the forest belt is threatened on its upper and lower border, thus shrinking on both sides. This further exacerbates the adverse impacts on the water balance of the mountain.

Changing climate patterns not only influence landscape characteristics but also animal distributions. The Kenyan Amboseli National Park is situated on the northern foothills of Mt. Kilimanjaro. This area has experienced extensive habitat changes since the early 1960`s (ALTMANN 2002). These include dramatic loss of tree and shrub cover which was partly caused by an increasing elephant population and temperature changes. The “natural” landscape alterations are further enhanced by a steadily growing Masai population on the whole northern foothill of Mt. Kilimanjaro. According to rangers of Kilimanjaro 29 During the survey, over 2,100 recently-logged camphor trees were counted. On the lower slopes bordering

the half-mile forest strip, there was no recent logging of camphor trees since these areas have already been depleted. However, other indigenous tree species were targeted; some 4,300 recently-logged indigenous trees were recorded. As a result, evidence of 57 landslides in the heavily impacted Ocotea forests was recorded. To the east, above Marangu, 19 cleared fields have been opened up in the forest, and a large number of livestock was seen up to 8 kilometers deep into the forest. There were fewer observations recorded in the half-mile forest strip because this zone is virtually denuded of indigenous trees. Some areas have been completely cleared. Logging activities also impact heavily the east and west sides of the northern slopes; 574 recently-logged cedar trees were counted, as well as over 800 other indigenous trees.


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National Park elephant migration from the Amboseli National Park through the so-called “Kitendeni corridor” into the forests of Kilimanjaro has increased. In addition, more elephant herds stay permanently inside Kilimanjaro’s forests given the better conditions compared with the Amboseli basin.

A ground survey of the forests on the western and northern slopes of Kilimanjaro reveals that in most places elephants and buffaloes are abundant. Besides former logging activities (the last sawmills inside the indigenous forest were closed in the 1970´s) grazing patterns of big game cause a change in the dense forest cover towards a mosaic of openings and patches of closed canopies. If the openings become larger, forest regeneration is impeded. In the long term, this development will destroy the forest and change it into a bush land with scattered trees with all the known disadvantages.

7.7 Scenarios for 2020 with respect to fire impact

Assuming that the observed trends in fire frequency continue in a linear mode the following scenarios are probable. Regarding the upper forest line, most of the remaining subalpine Erica forests will have disappeared within five years. As a result, Mt. Kilimanjaro will have lost its most effective water catchment area. Compared with the situation of 2000, this means an annual loss of 16.2 million m3 fog water. Subsequently, the upper forest line will retreat more slowly because on the one side mostly broad-leaved forests remain, which are to a much lesser degree inflammable and because on the other the lower areas receive an increasing amount of precipitation. Nevertheless, an average retreat of the upper forest line of about 100 m in altitude seems to be probable by 2020, when the glaciers will have melted. Forest regeneration will completely be inhibited and regressive succession will prevail, as illustrated in Figure 15, substituting increasing areas of Erica heathland with low layered Helichrysum cushion vegetation.

Figure 15. Forest succession after continued fires

Linear increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in combination with increasing logging activity will also result in more forest fires, which will heavily destroy the lower forest zone up to an average altitude of 2000 m (for example closed forests will be replaced with an open bush that cannot carry out the necessary ecological functions). These trends will cause a further shrinking and fragmentation


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of the forest belt. Especially on the western and eastern but also on the south eastern slopes the forest zone will be interrupted by large gaps with all the known disadvantages for wildlife and the ecological balance.

7.8 Climate risks in perspective: shrinking glaciers versus enhanced fire risk

With an average thickness of 30 m as indicated by ice core drilling (THOMPSON 2000, THOMPSON et al. 2002) and likewise observations from KASER et al. (under review) the existing 2.6 km2 of glaciers constitute a water volume of about 72 million m3. However, most of this water is not available for the lowlands since most glacier ablation occurs as sublimation and the remaining melting water evaporates immediately into the atmosphere (KASER et al. under review). If one quarter (or 18 million m3) of glacier water would percolate into the rivers, an average annual water output of about 0.9 million m3 would result until 2020, when the glaciers are predicted to have being melted. But even then, one can still expect precipitation on Kibo to feed springs and rivers although not so continuously and to a lesser degree.

In contrast, Mt. Kilimanjaro receives 58.5 million m3 less water each year due to forest depletion and vegetation changes incurred as a result of forest fires since 1976. The number is likely an underestimate since the calculation assumes the timberline to remain stable for the next 20 years, which is very unlikely. Moreover, the calculation did not include the several 10,000 ha of ericaceous bush land which has been substituted by low Helichrysum cushion vegetation.

Summarizing, compared with roughly 1.3 billion m3 of water, contributed every year by the 1000 km2 of indigenous forest, the consequences of losing 2.6 km2 of glaciers providing an annual water output of about 0.9 million m3, the loss of Mt. Kilimanjaro’s ice cap is negligible. Still, the melting glaciers are certainly an alarming indicator of severe environmental changes on Mt. Kilimanjaro.

8. Policy responses for Mount Kilimanjaro

The preceding section has laid out the complex interaction between climatic and other stresses that are causing significant changes in the Kilimanjaro ecosystem and adversely impacting the ecosystem services it provides. While the most visible impact – glacier retreat – may only have limited consequences, enhancement of fire risk that has resulted from climatic trends and human interference poses significant threats not only to the viability of the ecosystem, but also neighboring regions through its critical influence on regional water resources. Some of these changes (such as glacier retreat) may be inevitable, but others can be managed to make the ecosystem more sustainable. However, this requires a comprehensive set of policy responses that take into account the underlying demographic, environmental and climatic stresses. This section starts with a brief discussion of policy responses to the shrinking ice cap, to the general environmental threats facing the Kilimanjaro ecosystem, as well as to the enhancement of fire risk. Finally, given that human livelihood choices might provide the trigger for forest fires, the section reviews alternate livelihood strategies that might alleviate some of these stresses.

8.1 Policy responses to the shrinking ice cap

The melting of Kilimanjaro’s ice cap receives much attention. Articles in local, regional and international newspapers described the results of ice core drilling by American scientists during the years 2000-2001. A study on climatic changes in the context of the receding ice level on Mt. Kilimanjaro was chosen to be a topic among the proposed research priorities for the next years of TANAPA (Tanzanian National Parks). However, there is obviously nothing that could be done by way of policy responses to avoid or even delay its eventual loss.


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8.2 Policy responses to general environmental threats

The vulnerability of the Kilimanjaro to climate change can be alleviated at least partially by reducing other environmental stresses on it. Since Mt. Kilimanjaro is a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site, the environmental problems of this unique volcano have attracted international attention and a number of conservation projects are already under way. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Foundation (UNF) have jointly disbursed 264,000 US$ to the Tanzanian government for running different environmental conservation projects and promoting eco-tourism on Mt. Kilimanjaro. A first comprehensive inventory of threats - including wild fires – to Mt. Kilimanjaro was taken during an aerial survey in September 2001.30 As a result of this survey it was decided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism that the forest belt of Mt. Kilimanjaro and Mt. Meru will be taken away from the Forest Department and included into Kilimanjaro National Park and Meru National park respectively. A similar shift in management from Forest Department to Kenya Wildlife Service in 2000 on Mt. Kenya resulting from an aerial survey had dramatic consequences. The illegal cutting dropped drastically. Comparing the situation in 2002 with 1999 logging of camphor was reduced by 96%, logging of cedar by 73% and logging of other indigenous trees by 92% (LAMBRECHTS, pers. com.). It is therefore expected that such a shift in management in the Kilimanjaro will have similar effects.

While these efforts are underway, several important challenges remain. One major threat is the cross-border migration of big game from the Amboseli National Park. There is a need for the formulation of a cross-border response between Tanzania and Kenya. An initial step would be to survey and count the numbers of elephants and buffalos. Based on these figures further steps, including control or reduction measures have to be taken into account. Also, the animals should be provided with adequate areas in the Amboseli basin by restricting permanent settlements of the Masai.

8.3 Policy responses to enhanced fire risk

There are two general ways to cope with wild fires: first, reduction of fire risk and second, fighting of fires. The main area of interest in this respect is the upper montane and subalpine zone on Mt. Kilimanjaro, where fires are most common. The first aim is to protect the still existing upper montane and subalpine forests from further destruction by fire. Second, since the potential climatic and historic tree line is much higher than the actual fire-induced one it should be tried to increase the forest area and to push up the actual forest line to areas that were formerly covered by forests.

8.3.1 Responses to forest destruction

While the natural montane forest on the Kilimanjaro has had protected status since the early twentieth century, the cutting of indigenous trees continued to increase until 1984 when the severe forest destruction led to the banning of all harvesting from the catchment forests on Kilimanjaro by a Presidential Order. Prior to the ban local people were used to entering the reserve without restriction to utilize its resources. Therefore, the new restrictions were not effective and encroachment activities have continued illegally. Nevertheless, general awareness for the protection of Mt. Kilimanjaro’s natural resources especially of its forests is high among local people, governmental and non-governmental institutions. Everywhere Panda miti! (Plant trees!) stickers can be seen in offices, governmental cars and schools. The government awards prizes to those villages that have planted the most trees. Unfortunately, no indigenous

30 The request for the aerial survey of the forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro was originally presented by UNDP/GEF

Small Grants Programme, New York. The objective was to identify the type, extent and location of the threats to the forests and provide a baseline assessment for the newly developed Community Management of Protected Areas Conservation Project (COMPACT). The aerial survey on Mt. Kilimanjaro was supported by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism and the Tanzania National Parks.


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trees are used for such competitions. The churches, which have great influence on people, also support afforestation measures.

Many NGO’s like the Tanzania Association of Foresters (TAF) run reforestation projects on the mountain. Some villages like Mbokomu and private institutions like the Maua Seminary do the same, mostly without any support from the forest department in Moshi and sometimes even against the authorities31. Another significant development was the initiation of the catchment forestry project in 1988. The first phase of the project (1988-1992) focused on improving catchment forest management by establishing an inventory of the forest by resurveying, replanting boundaries, mapping and through reviving the management and protection activity. The second phase (1992-1996) tried to improve management of the forest through boundary marking, mapping, policing and people’s participation. Efforts are currently being made to involve the local communities in the management of the forest reserve. Villages adjacent to the forest have now the responsibility to watch that there is no encroachment into the forest. Village conservation committees are responsible for establishing tree nurseries, to organize patrols into the forest, to mobilize the people for fire fighting and to control the entrance into the forest by issuing permits. Timber that has been confiscated during the patrols becomes (partly) property of the village (MISANA 1999). However, these activities of the forest department were not very successful, which became apparent during the aerial survey of LAMBRECHTS et al. (2002).

In 2000, the GEF Small Grants Program implemented by UNDP, in collaboration with the United Nations Foundation (UNF), launched the Community Management of Protected Areas Conservation Project (COMPACT). The main objective of COMPACT is to demonstrate, by complementing and adding value to existing conservation programs, how community-based initiatives can significantly increase the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation in and around World Natural Heritage Sites (WNHS). The project also aims at (i) enhancing the capacities of local organizations and NGOs whose existence and future prospects are closely linked to these protected areas; (ii) increasing local awareness of, and concern for, the protection of WNHS, (iii) promoting and supporting communication and cooperation among park management personnel and other concerned groups, particularly local communities, (iv) increasing general understanding of the synergies between community development and the role of globally significant protected areas in contributing to sustainable development, and (v) drawing lessons from project experience that can be shared widely at local, national and international levels.

Mount Kilimanjaro is one of six World Natural Heritage Sites on three continents participating in COMPACT. A common methodology to prioritize COMPACT interventions at the six sites has been developed. It involves a participatory approach to identify the main threats to the protected area, and to assess the types of activities that may be carried out by local communities to address those threats while improving their quality of life and livelihoods. This planning process involves a wide range of stakeholders of Mt. Kilimanjaro: community-based organizations, local and national NGOs, local and national authorities with management responsibilities of the mountain, and other programs and projects present in the area. It is too early to assess the effect of COMPACT, although the expectation of the funding agencies

31 The Maua Seminary, a Franziscanian monastery leading a vocational school, is a good example for

possibilities and problems of private engagement in environmental projects. The Padres of this monastery are very active replanting the whole valley of the Mue river inside the half-mile forest strip. The trees, although paid and planted by private effort are the property of the government. To cut down expenses and to get local people involved and interested in the project, they tried to use the Shamba (Taungya) system practices as it is done in other forest plantations on the mountain. Many forest plantations in West and North Kilimanjaro have usually been established by allowing local farmers to inter-crop annual agricultural crops with tree seedlings in forest plantation areas until the third year of tree growth. But the Padres have been unsuccessful fighting for eight years to get the permission from the forest office to use the Shamba system. Since they cannot pay a lot, incentives for local people to cooperate are not very high and the afforestation of the valley takes long.


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and the host government is that the project empowers local communities to participate effectively in reversing extractive pressures that have adverse impacts on the mountain’s resources.

8.3.2 Responses to forest fires

Since most areas heavily affected by fire - Erica forests and bush lands, are located inside the Kilimanjaro National Park (KINAPA), effective management of this park is one of the keystones to reduce the fire risk on Mt. Kilimanjaro. During the 1997 fire outbreak, a contingent of 700 fire fighters including the Tanzanian army was needed to extinguish the fire. A special fund of US$5,000 was subsequently set up to fight fires on the mountain. Fundraising to collect the money has targeted various donors including the business community, environmental institutions and other interested parties. However, since large amounts are necessary, the Tanzanian government is seeking new donor funding to conserve forests on Mt. Kilimanjaro (THE EAST AFRICAN, 9.10.2002).

One step towards fire prevention was already taken by the national park authorities by banning camp fires. However as most fires are caused by pit-sawyers, poachers or honey gatherers more effort has to be undertaken to cut down these illegal activities. A paramilitary ranger troop patrol the forests could serve as an effective deterrent, as proven successful on Mt. Kenya.

The construction of open strips as fire breaks seems generally not suitable for the Kilimanjaro due to the very difficult, inaccessible and steep slopes. One suitable area however exists on the south eastern slopes where there is a plateau around 2700-2800 m with moorland vegetation, formed by tussock grasses, occurring at the fringe of the forest. In this area grassland fires affecting the bordering forests are very common and the construction of open strips to prevent fire from spreading into the forest seems to be possible and effective. At the lower forest boundary, fire lines could be reactivated and cleared before the dry seasons.

There is also a need for better forest fire early warning system on Mt. Kilimanjaro. One possibility is the establishment of fire observation points such as fire towers on higher hills or ridges near existing ranger posts or tourist camps and huts. The fire-fighting capabilities could be significantly boosted with the provision of one or two small airplanes, as is the case for Mt. Kenya. A national park of the size, topography and importance like Kilimanjaro cannot be managed properly in many respects (e. g. observation of poachers) without such modern equipment. The fire fighting equipment also needs to be supplemented by a suitably equipped task force.

As mentioned earlier, many NGO’s, some villages and private institutions run re- and afforestation projects on the mountain. However, a large scale effort is missing. The forest department in Moshi, which acts as the official initiator of such projects, has failed completely to protect the indigenous forests. Nurseries are used as maize fields and illegal cutting of timber is not prohibited effectively. No government supported tree nursery exists on the southern slopes. A first step might be the recent decision to incorporate the forest belt into the National Park, since this institution should be able to employ well paid rangers to take care for its resources. In addition, bearing in mind the financial resources – the annual park income is US$ 6.5 million (20,000 park visitors stay on average 5 days paying a daily entrance fee of US$ 65) park authorities should ensure that a certain fixed share of the income flows directly back to Kilimanjaro.

The local people should also be involved and get benefits out of the forest to be more interested in its protection. As shown on Mt. Kenya and some Kilimanjaro villages adjacent to the forest, people should be given the responsibility to ensure that there is no encroachment into the forest, to organize patrols and to mobilize people for fire fighting. These efforts should be compensated by rewarding the participating villages with timber which has been confiscated during patrols.


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Likewise, the half-mile forest strip should be managed similarly by involving local people. This strip of 8,769 ha on the southern and eastern slope, ranges between the plantation belt and the forest reserve. It is meant to provide timber and firewood, and in some areas even pines, cypress and eucalyptus have been planted. However, people use this strip mainly in an uncontrolled way to collect fodder for their livestock. Sometimes the area even serves as pasture land. Since nobody feels responsible, this area is highly degraded and not managed properly. This is quiet different from the situation in the beginning. The half-mile forest strip was established resulting from a request of the Chagga Council in 1941 brought to the colonial government in response to the need of unrestricted availability of forest products, which could not be gained in the forest reserve. During the 20 years of managing the forest, the local people contributed substantially in planting trees, demarcating the boundary and fighting fires. In return, they were allowed to obtain forest products freely or at minimal costs (MISANA 1999). In 1962, however, management of the strip was transferred to the District Council and later (1972) the central government took control of the strip, which was then managed by the Forest Division, which restricted local people from collecting forest products freely. This situation has not changed up to now, although the management of the strip has been referred to the district councils again in 1987, together with the Forest Division.

Currently, a discussion has started to give the area back to the villages, which has been already done in some areas. This may offer the possibility that the local population will take more care of the land in the future than today. Since many fires originate in the agricultural land surrounding the forest and in the half-mile forest strip, it would reduce the fire risk for the forest as well. However, it cannot be excluded that this land would be abused as agricultural land and for settlement. Therefore, governmental control would be necessary. In any case, this huge area - when properly used and planted with timber trees - has a high potential to reduce the pressure from the indigenous forests.

Regarding replanting it appears to be a necessity to employ well-trained foresters, perhaps from outside the country, to start forestation projects and to educate local foresters. Especially the choice of suitable tree species is of importance. A variety of different species, not only the widely used exotic ones, but also indigenous could be used. Riverine areas could exclusively be replanted with indigenous trees, and existing natural forest patches in the half-mile forest strip situated mostly near rivers should not be replaced with forest plantations.

Right now, the forest plantations in West and North Kilimanjaro are not managed properly. During the aerial survey (LAMBRECHTS et al. 2002) it became evident that over 50% of the Shamba system areas are not under tree growing, either because replanting was not successful or because it was not undertaken at all. Since the production of timber is the primary goal and growing vegetables only a secondary one, the share of tree-planted areas in the forest plantations has to be much higher, even though this implies the removal of illegally erected villages inside the forest reserve.

The Chagga home gardens (vihamba) are an old and very sustainable way of land use that meets several different demands. Besides crop production, the sparse tree layer provides people with fire wood, fodder and timber. However, the high demand for wood and the introduction of coffee varieties that are sun-tolerant endangers this effective system. In some areas of the mountain (e. g. on the eastern slopes) the trees in the banana fields are very scattered or already missing. Therefore it seems to be necessary, in order to reduce the pressure on the forest, to support the tree planting in the Chagga home gardens with their unique agro forestry system. There could also be a program that rewards farmers to have a certain share of their land covered with trees. As the banana belt is nearly as extensive as the forest reserve, this will certainly have major effects in terms of forest protection and water balance. In combination with new marketing and farming strategies for growing organic coffee using traditional methods an advertising campaign should be started. The campaign should point out that the consumer buys high quality ecologically grown coffee supporting not only sustainable land use and an old African cultural heritage but he is also protecting the rain forest. A certain share of the coffee prize should be used to run this


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environmental Chagga home garden program. Government programs and donor agencies should cover any additional program costs instead of using financial resources for other expensive and in the long-term less effective projects such as dairying, which are not suitable for the Chagga home gardens.

Finally, a comprehensive, holistic environmental development plan focusing on fire risk and forest destruction while defining conservation strategies to ensure the long term sustainability of the mountain should combine all the different requirements, constraints and aims under one leading guideline. The high complexity of Mt. Kilimanjaro’s ecosystem requires the expertise of scientists familiar with the biodiversity patterns and ecological conditions of the mountain for the preparation of such a report.

8.4 Promotion of ecosystem friendly livelihood opportunities

A key adaptation response to the threats facing the Kilimanjaro ecosystem is also to reduce human and livelihood pressures that make it vulnerable to other stresses such as climatic change. Humans have continuously occupied the slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro for the last 2000 years (SCHMIDT 1989). However, the population has multiplied by 20 during the 100 years since 1895. In general, the growth rate is exponential, albeit it is slowly decreasing since 1978. The annual average population growth has been 2.1% between 1978 and 1988 and decreased to 1.6% between 1988 and 2002. In 1991 GAMASSA estimated the doubling of the population within 39 years. The population increase was much higher in urban than in rural areas. While the population has doubled between 1967 and 2002 on Kilimanjaro, the population in Moshi town multiplied 5 times during that same period.

The overall population density for the four districts that comprise Mt Kilimanjaro region was 198 people per km2 in 2002. If population density would be based upon actual land availability, this number would be approximately 331 people per km2. Most of the population is concentrated at an altitude between 1100 and 1800 m. Here, densities varying from 500 to 1000 people per km2 have been recorded in certain places (TIMBERLAKE 1986, FAO 1986). From these data it is evident that every effort in environmental protection, which ignores the demands of a still fast growing population, will fail. Therefore, it is necessary to boost livelihood prospects in sectors that do not pose threat to the Kilimanjaro ecosystem.

Today, the bulk of development processes is departing from the mountain, although most of the population still remains there. Manufacturing in the region has collapsed following the closure of most leading factories. Even in the tourism market neighboring Arusha out-competes Moshi in the Kilimanjaro region.

Agriculture, the livelihood for most residents, accounts for over 85% of the total regional income with coffee being the main cash crop. Lately, however, coffee has become less profitable due to traditional farming techniques and very low coffee prices. Today (March 2003) a farmer gets only 400 TSH (equivalent to 0.4 US Dollar) for one kg of coffee and many farmers think about replacing their coffee trees with other crops such as passion fruits. In the 1970s 35,000 tonnes of coffee were harvested annually in the region whereas today only 12,000 to 15,000 tonnes are produced. Still, coffee accounts for over 60% of the region’s income and authorities plan to raise coffee production to over 45,000 tonnes. The Coffee Revival Programme, which was launched in 1998 aimed at producing 100,000 tonnes. The strategy involves the formation of coffee revival committees and replacement of old coffee trees (THE EAST

AFRICAN, August 26-September 1, 2002). However, the question whether this could be the solution remains open considering the over supply on the world market. A better way seems to be to raise the quality. According to Tanzania Coffee Board officials (THE EAST AFRICAN, August 26-September 1, 2002) new crop marketing and farming strategies aim at growing organic coffee through traditional methods without any use of pesticides and artificial fertilizers.


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Despite its large cattle herds and successive government efforts to promote dairying, Tanzania is a net importer of dairy products (MDOE & WIGGINS 1997). Since independence in 1961 the government of Tanzania has tried to encourage more domestic milk production to achieve self-sufficiency. Since most cattle are stall-fed, and fodder has to be collected and brought from remote areas, large scale dairying in the Chagga home-gardens offers no alternative. Expensive dairy development projects therefore may not be the right way to improve livelihood in the submontane banana zone in the long-term.

In terms of tourism Kilimanjaro National Park (KINAPA) is a major tourist attraction in Tanzania and earns the most foreign exchange of any National Park in Tanzania (NEWMARK & NGUYE 1991). Most visitors are mainly interested in reaching the summit of Kibo, known as Uhuru Peak, the highest point in Africa. In the year 1976 5,000 people tried to reach the summit (CARLÉ 1977). In the year 2002 this number had increased to 20,000 (Chief Park Warden KINAPA, pers. comm.). Since its establishment in 1972, the number of visitors of KINAPA has multiplied by five. Today, about 100,000 people – porters and tourists combined - frequent the alpine areas of Kilimanjaro every year. Such increasing numbers of visitors have certainly effects on the environment. Especially the alpine zone with its highly specialized flora and fauna is a very sensitive ecosystem. Since a national park is meant for nature protection, it appears that tourism has reached a level which should not be exceeded. Therefore, alternatives to the mountain climbing tourism have to be explored.

During the last years a strong development of ecotourism could be observed world wide. Ecotourism can not only help in protecting the environment especially on Mt. Kilimanjaro put also it allows local population to participate in its economic potential. In the long run this type of tourism could be an alternative to the usual climbing tourism on Mt. Kilimanjaro. Another possibility is one or two day guided nature trips to the forest or to the lower alpine zone organized by the Kilimanjaro National Park. Many tourists would prefer to visit only the lower vegetation zones of the park instead of climbing. A special training program for guides should provide them with sufficient, basic knowledge about main vegetation types, flora and fauna to explain the mountain ecosystem to interested tourists. For the promotion of tourism it is of fundamental importance to generally improve tourist facilities and in particular to raise the quality of Tanzanian tourist hotels.

To summarize, due to a rapidly growing population, the decline in coffee production, and the collapse of manufacturing industry, the Kilimanjaro Region, which once has been one of Tanzania’s leading economical areas, is now among the most poverty stricken. The region’s annual per capita income is less than TSH 96,390 (US$ 96) (THE EAST AFRICAN, August 26-September 1, 2002). The most promising economic alternatives for the region currently appear to be the promotion of high quality organic coffee rather than necessarily increasing the quantity of production, the production of new cash crops such as passion fruits and flowers, as well as the improvement of eco-tourism and improvement of tourism infrastructure.


Climate change poses significant risks for Tanzania. While projected trends in precipitation are uncertain (and may differ for various areas of the country), there is a high likelihood of year-round temperature increase, as well as sea level rise. The sectors potentially impacted by climate change include agriculture, forests, water resources, coastal resources, human health, and energy, industry and transport. Given the low level of human development, extreme poverty, and high dependence on agriculture and natural resources, Tanzania may be quite vulnerable to projected climatic changes.


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9.1 Differentiated adaptation strategy

While uncertainties in climate change and impacts projections pose a challenge for anticipatory adaptation for any country, Tanzania’s case has several specific characteristics that may argue for a differentiated adaptation strategy.

First, the climate change projections on which all national impact and vulnerability assessments (all the way to the Initial National Communication of 2003) rely on an older generation of climate models and scenarios (circa early 1990s). A preliminary analysis based on more recent climate models conducted as part of this study concludes that temperature increases might be somewhat lower than (although broadly consistent with) the estimates used in the National Communication and the National Climate Change Action Plan. Updating of climate scenarios and impact projections through the use of multiple and more recent models might therefore be advisable prior to the formulation of aggressive (and potentially expensive) adaptation responses. This should not however affect “no regrets” adaptation measures such as leakage prevention and water conservation.

A second characteristic feature of Tanzania is that certain sectors are projected to experience both negative and positive impacts under climate change – for example, while production of maize is projected to decline, the production of two key cash crops (coffee and cotton) which contribute significantly to the GNI is projected to increase. Similarly, while stream-flow declines are projected to decline in two of three key river basins (Ruvu and Pangani), they are projected to increase in the third (Rufiji). The implication for adaptation therefore may be to not only cushion adverse impacts, but also to harness positive opportunities. This suggests consideration of an enhanced portfolio of linked-adaptation responses – for example a strategic shift from maize to cash crops over the medium term, and inter-basin transfers in the case of water resources. Such strategic shifts however may entail economic and dislocation costs – and therefore require careful screening, particularly with regard to their effects on equity and rural livelihoods. More rigorous testing of particular crop and stream-flow projections may also be advisable prior to undertaking such adaptation responses.

A third key characteristic is that unlike most other countries where the need for adaptation relies on projections of future impacts, some discernible trends in climate and attendant impacts are already underway in Tanzania. Such impacts – as is the case of the Kilimanjaro ecosystem - argue for more immediate adaptation responses as opposed to a “wait and see” strategy.

9.2 Climate change and donor portfolios

Tanzania receives close to a billion dollars of development assistance annually. An analysis of donor projects using the OECD/World Bank Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database reveals that roughly 12 – 25% (in terms of investment dollars) and 20-30% (in terms of number of projects) of donor portfolios in Tanzania may be potentially affected by climate change. This includes both activities in sectors which may themselves be impacted by climate change, as well as those projects and other activities which may influence the vulnerability of natural or human systems to climate change. These numbers are only indicative at best, given that any classification based on sectors suffers from over-simplification. Nevertheless, such measures can serve as a crude barometer to assess the degree to which particular projects or development strategies may need to take climate change concerns into account. Several donor strategies in fact already do make frequent references to the impacts of climate variability (such as El Nino) and linkages between such events and economic performance. There is however as yet no explicit reference to climate change. The (relatively few) development projects that were reviewed for this report did not pay attention to the risks associated with climate change.


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9.3 Attention to climate change concerns in national planning

At the national level meanwhile Tanzania has a draft National Action Plan on Climate Change since 1997 that highlights priorities on three time-scales (Short term 1-2 years; Medium term 2-5 years; and Long term 10-20 years). The short term primarily focuses on capacity building through conferences; the medium term flags “projects internalizing climate change aspects… especially those reducing GHG emissions” and recommends the introduction of economic instruments to accomplish such goals; and the long term identifies major infrastructure projects in energy, transportation, and coastal zones as priority areas. While the sequencing appears reasonable, the plan remains short on specific details on how it may be implemented. Tanzania’s recent National Communication to the UN Convention on Biodiversity, and its report to the World Summit on Sustainable Development only make tangential references to climate change. Its Poverty Reduction Strategy paper (PRSP) does explicitly recognize the significance of current climatic impacts on the poor, although the potential links between climatic factors and performance of key sectors (such as agriculture) are generally not discussed.

There is however considerable synergy between priorities of at least some national plans and the measures that may be required for adaptation. Specifically, the National Environmental Policy which emphasizes measures to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector, the National Water Policy that highlights efficient water use and water conservation, and the National Forest Policy which highlights forest conservation and biodiversity preservation. However, some of these goals (such as Water Conservation) have been articulated in previous plans, but have not been successfully implemented. Therefore, despite the obvious synergies between such policies and climate change adaptation, a key obstacle facing successful “mainstreaming” is successful implementation.

9.4 Climate risks in perspective on Mount Kilimanjaro

The second half of this report discusses in-depth climate change impacts and policy responses on the Mount Kilimanjaro ecosystem – Africa’s highest mountain and largest glacier, a biodiversity hotspot, and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro have been in a general state of retreat on account of natural causes for over a hundred and fifty years. A decline in precipitation coupled with a local warming trend that has been recorded in the second half of the twentieth century accelerated their retreat, and the ice cap is projected to vanish entirely by as early as 2020. While the symbolism of this loss is indeed significant, this analysis concludes that the impact of such a loss on the physical and socio-economic system is likely to be very limited. The present glaciers are already very small, and cover an area which is only 0.2% of the forest belt on Mount Kilimanjaro. Glaciers do not feed any major rivers, and even when they would have melted the mountain will still receive precipitation. Further, even without glaciers Mount Kilimanjaro will remain the world’s highest free standing mountain and with Africa’s highest peak. Therefore, it is unlikely that the loss of glaciers would have a significant long-term impact on tourism. It must however be emphasised that ice-cores on the Kilimanjaro are a repository of paleo-climatic records, and valuable climatic records would be irreplaceably lost with the loss of the ice cap.

The increase in temperatures and a concomitant decline in precipitation have also significantly enhanced the intensity and risk of forest fires on the Kilimanjaro. Climatic changes have not shifted vegetation zones upwards as in the case of other mountains, but on Mt. Kilimanjaro they have pushed the upper forest line downward as a result of increase in forest fire risk and intensity on the upper fringes of the forest. A whole vegetation zone, the ericaceous belt, has moved downwards since 1976 by several hundred meters, substituting 13000 ha of forest. The replacement of the fog intercepting forest belt by low lying shrub has already seriously impacted the hydrological balance of the mountain as fog intercepting cloud forests play a key role in the water budgets of high altitude drainage basins. The decline of 13000 ha of cloud forest since 1976 has already resulted in a reduction of the water yields of about 58 million m3 of water every year. This constitutes about 10% of the annual fog water input of the whole forest belt. Not


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included in this calculation are the several thousands of hectares of destroyed ericaceous bush land and the loss of montane forests due to human activities such as logging. These impacts have implications that extend beyond the region as it feeds the Pangani river, one of Tanzania’s largest, which is responsible for 20% of Tanzania’s electricity output.

Looking into the future, a continuation of current trends in climatic changes, fire frequency and destructive human influence most of the remaining subalpine Erica forests could disappear within five years. With this, Mt. Kilimanjaro will have lost its most effective water catchment area as fog interception is of highest importance in the Erica forests. A further retreat of the upper forest line by about 100 m altitude seems to be probable until 2020. Increasing logging activity in combination with a higher number of forest fires is also expected to destroy the lower forest zone up to an average altitude of 2000 m. This will result in a further shrinking and fragmentation of the forest belt.

9.5 Policy responses for Mount Kilimanjaro

While glacier retreat is inevitable and cannot even be delayed, forest fire risk can indeed be reduced. Climate change only adds to the urgency of fire prevention and control, as well as forest conservation activities on Mount Kilimanjaro. Among the measures identified by this report are institutional measures such as the inclusion of the forest belt into the Kilimanjaro National Park and creation of a paramilitary ranger group (as in Mount Kenya) to deter logging, as well as better investments in early warning systems, particularly the purchase of one or two aircraft for aerial surveillance. There is also a need to limit cross-border migration of big game from neighboring Amboseli, which is adding to the stress on the Kilimanjaro ecosystem.

In addition to such piecemeal solutions there is an urgent need to better understand the livelihood needs of the local population to engage them more successfully in conservation and fire-prevention efforts. For example, an earlier policy response – the banning of camp-fires – did not have the desired effect because most of the fires were actually being lit not by mountaineers, but by honey collectors. A more sustainable solution therefore needs to identify viable livelihood opportunities that take some of the human pressures away from the forest. Creative solutions to boost local incomes, such as provision of incentives to switch to more lucrative specialty coffee production, may therefore be part of a package of responses that may help reduce the pressures on activities like logging and honey collection. Finally, there is a critical need to develop a comprehensive and holistic development plan focusing on fire-risk and forest destruction as well as to identify conservation strategies to ensure the long term sustainability of the valuable resources of Mount Kilimanjaro.


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APPENDIX A: PREDICTIVE ERRORS FOR SCENGEN ANALYSIS FOR TANZANIA

The table below shows the predictive error for annual precipitation levels for each SCENGEN model for each country. Each model is ranked by its error score, which was computed using the formula 100*[(MODEL MEAN BASELINE / OBSERVED) - 1.0]. Error scores closest to zero are optimal. The six models with the highest error scores from the estimation were dropped from the analysis.

Predictive errors for each SCENGEN model for Tanzania

Average error32 Minimum error Maximum error Models to be kept for estimation ECH3TR95 7% 3% 12% ECH4TR98 13% 1% 27% CCSRTR96 14% 5% 26% HAD3TR00 18% 7% 30% CERFTR98 22% 18% 25% BMRCTR98 23% 2% 45% HAD2TR95 24% 10% 42% GFDLTR90 25% 1% 37% CSI2TR96 32% 24% 40% PCM_TR00 34% 7% 45% CSM_TR98 35% 19% 57% Models to be dropped from estimation IAP_TR97 40% 7% 93% GISSTR95 48% 4% 125% LMD_TR98 63% 29% 100% CCC1TR99 73% 53% 98% W&M_TR95 94% 32% 136% MRI_TR96 132% 94% 154%




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APPENDIX B: LIST OF PURPOSE CODES INCLUDED IN THE SELECTION OF CLIMATE-AFFECTED PROJECTS, ORGANIZED BY THE DAC SECTOR CODE

DAC code

General sector name Purpose codes that are included in the selection



150 Government & civil society 15010 (economic & development policy/planning) 160 Other social infrastructure and

services 16330 (settlement) and 16340 (reconstruction relief)



240 Banking and financial services - 250 Business and other services - 310 Agriculture, forestry, fishing All purpose codes 320 Industry, mining, construction - 330 Trade and tourism 33200 (tourism, general)

33210 (tourism policy and admin. management) 410 General environment protection 41000 (general environmental protection)

41010 (environmental policy and management) 41020 (biosphere protection) 41030 (biodiversity) 41040 (site preservation) 41050 (flood prevention/control)# 41081 (environmental education/training) 41082 (environmental research)

420 Women in development - 430 Other multi-sector 43030 (urban development)

43040 (rural development) 510 Structural adjustment - 520* Food aid excluding relief aid 52000 (dev. food aid/food security assist.)






910 Administrative costs of donors - 920 Support to NGOs - 930 Unallocated/unspecified - * sector codes that are excluded in the second selection (low estimate). # purpose codes that are included in the emergency selection


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APPENDIX C: REVIEW OF SELECTED DONOR STRATEGIES FOR TANZANIA

C. 1 United National Development Program (UNDP)/United Nations Population Fund (UNPF) Second country cooperation framework for the United Republic of Tanzania 2002-2006 (2001) This cooperation framework focuses on governance and institutional aspects of poverty reduction, as well as government services. Little attention is being paid to natural resources dimensions. Climate change, current climate-related risks, or even food security in general, are not discussed.

C. 2 United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2002-2006 (2001) The UNDAF does not mention climate change. However, it recognizes the linkages between poverty and degradation of natural resources. In particular, it mentions the increasing risk of desertification (with 60% of Tanzania being composed of dry lands), partly caused by extensive deforestation. A fairly comprehensive section on Tanzania’s vulnerability to natural hazards also highlights climate-related concerns: “Natural and man-made disasters erode the coping capacity of the vulnerable population especially in drought-prone areas. There have been poor rains in Central Tanzania for the last three years, and traditional coping strategies are breaking down as land pressure increases. These types of shocks have become a frequent phenomenon in Tanzania in recent years. Floods and droughts, epidemics and crop pests, environmental damage and economic instabilities, have all had their effects on people’s capacity to meet their basic needs and subsequently their ability to survive and pursue their development ambitions and potential” In addition, the UNDAF observes a worrisome trend: “Some claim that during recent years emergency preparedness has actually decreased and dependency on external support in these kinds of situations has increased. Long term disaster management strategies to deal with predictable, poverty related emergencies are needed to use available resources most effectively.” This general concern is not yet translated into concrete activities in the UNDAF.

C. 3 United Nations Emergency Consolidated Appeal for the Drought in Tanzania 2001 This appeal illustrates Tanzania’s high vulnerability to climate variability: “The 1999/2000 rains were very poor in many parts of northern and central Tanzania. This has resulted in abnormally low levels of food production, particularly of the staple crop, maize grain, and has also caused a very poor cash crop harvest, thereby further reducing the cash income of the drought-affected households. This has been highly damaging to the household food security of many farming families in the semi-arid areas, who have suffered a fourth consecutive year of poor harvests and low-income levels. This cumulative effect has greatly undermined their purchasing power, forcing many of the poorest families to sell productive assets in order to survive. The recurrent nature of these food crises exposes the underlying layer of core poverty”. The appeal is intended to address Tanzania’s consecutive and chronic droughts, which affect the lives of over 9 million people, almost 30% of the total population of Tanzania. About 1.3 million of these live in a situation of total food insecurity. Instead of applying emergency measures year after year, the appeal proposes a more fundamental approach, part of longer-term integrated development strategies, including the Rural Development Strategy and the Agricultural Development Strategy which are currently under development, as well as improved early warning systems. Despite this longer-term focus, shifts in risks, for instance due to climate change, are not discussed. The implementation of the appeal, and particularly the longer-term components, could involve up to eight members of the UN system: FAO, WFP, UNICEF, ILO, UNIDO, IFAD, UNDP and the World Bank.


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C. 4 African Development Bank Country Strategy Paper 1999-2001 (2000) Country Economic Profile In its macroeconomic analysis, the strategy notes that overall macroeconomic performance has been satisfactory, but “growth rates have been fluctuating from year to year reflecting the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks. Although strong growth was registered in FY 1996/97 (4.2 percent), it declined to 3.3 percent in FY 1997/98 due to the adverse impact of the drought on agricultural output. The drought was followed by the El-Nino floods late 1997 and early 1998, which destroyed some of the crops and damaged roads, thereby, disrupting internal movement of agricultural commodities as well as export shipments.” In response, the strategy underlines the need for “an aggressive export promotion drive and continued diversification of the export base.” The direct causes of Tanzania’s vulnerability to natural hazards are not analyzed in the macroeconomic analysis or in the sectoral sections.

In a section on poverty, the strategy highlights the links between poverty, drought, and food insecurity: “Since the poor are entirely dependent on agriculture (mainly crops) for their livelihood, their incomes and food consumption are vulnerable to droughts. Food insecurity is therefore a major feature of poverty, especially in drought-prone areas of the country”. The strategy also notes that less than 20 percent of the irrigation potential is utilized, unnecessarily exposing agricultural production to droughts. At the same time however, the agriculture section of the strategy attributes poor agricultural performance mainly to limited access to agricultural credits and weak extension services, poor transport infrastructure, limited use of modern inputs (mainly due to high costs), weak agriculture planning and program implementation, and low budgetary allocation to the sector. Dealing with droughts and irrigation are not mentioned here. Donor support has in the past included, among others, small-scale irrigation and soil conservation. However, the results have been mixed, mainly due to lack of counterpart funding, weak institutional capacity in the Ministry of Agriculture, and the lack of a coherent sector framework.

Similarly, the strategy point to the underlying patterns causing water supply problems: “While droughts have contributed to water supply problems, the underlying factors include weak institutional capacity in the sector, poor water resource management, and the dilapidated condition of the water schemes and distribution networks in the rural and urban areas resulting from the under-funding of maintenance and rehabilitation.” Hence, the AfDB also focuses mainly on sector reform, operation efficiency, and rehabilitation and expansion of existing facilities. In addition, it has adopted a river basin approach for water management improvements. Finally, the strategy also notes the widespread environmental problems, including land degradation, desertification, loss of biodiversity and wildlife, and the depletion of marine and coastal resources. The environmental degradation is attributed to widespread poverty, high population growth, and poor natural resource management practices. In that context, climatic factors (including wildfires and flood and drought risks related to climate variability) are not discussed. Climate change is not mentioned anywhere in the strategy.

The AfDB Country Economic Profile (from 1995) highlights the interrelationships between natural hazards and natural resources management: “There is widespread consensus that one of the major problems facing the nation is land degradation. This takes many forms: soil erosion, deforestation, bush fires and overgrazing. The root cause often lies in the actions of the agricultural producers themselves. Land degradation results in a loss of productivity in agriculture, land use conflicts, loss of biodiversity and changes in water catchment areas which have led to both drought and floods”. These issues are highlighted throughout the study, and illustrated by several examples. Deforestation in particular is highlighted as a pressing problem, for biodiversity, but also floods and droughts. Bush fires are both a cause and consequence. The profile also describes the environmental problems in coastal areas, including pollution, but also clearance of mangrove forests and destruction of corals (particularly by dynamite fishing). Among the consequences is a depletion of fishery resources.


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While the document reviews policy options to respond to the challenges, it mainly emphasizes the implementation and further development of government policies that were already in place or under consideration. Climate change is not discussed33.

C. 5 World Bank Country Assistance Strategy (2000) The effect of climate on the country’s performance is recognized by the fact that climatic conditions are mentioned as part of the inputs to a (low-case) macro-economic scenario for Tanzania’s development. In addition, the strategy states that “Tanzania is vulnerable to external shocks, commodity price changes and droughts”, putting climatic conditions on a par with major economic issues that are discussed at length. In addition, it describes that an infrastructure project has been restructured to address “El Nino damages”. However, vulnerability to floods and drought is not mentioned, not as a risk to the Bank’s own projects, nor as a development opportunity that could have been addressed by concrete activities. Climate change is not mentioned.

C. 6 IFAD Country Strategic Opportunities Paper (1998) According to IFAD’s strategy paper “agriculture remains exposed to the vagaries of nature”. For instance, the high growth in maize production (the main staple crop) is highly susceptible to weather conditions. While the country has a structural food deficit of about 700 tons, imports rise to up to 1.5 million tons in times of flood or drought. The main constraints to agricultural production are lack of irrigation, unavailability of credit for the poorest segment of the population, and absence of an appropriate institutional framework to support agricultural development activities. Donor support has been ineffective due to poor counterpart funding from the government, cumbersome and centralized procedures, lack of beneficiary participation and ownership, and lack of appropriate targeting criteria for women. IFAD aims to address these sector-wide issues in order to make the agricultural sector more productive; at the same time, this should contribute to a decrease in vulnerability to adverse weather conditions, particularly for the smallholders who account for about 85% of the cultivable land. Climate-related risks to IFAD projects are not discussed explicitly, although the report mentions the flood damage to irrigation schemes during the 1997/98 El Nino. Climate change is not mentioned.

C. 7 DFID Country Strategy Paper (1999) This country paper recognizes that Tanzania’s agriculture, accounting for half the GDP and 75% of exports, is “highly vulnerable to climatic shocks”. In the past, DFID has provided substantial support in response to natural disasters. The strategy for the coming years contains assistance to help protect poor people’s livelihoods and strengthen the government’s capacity to prepare for and manage disasters. However, climate risks to development investments and their outcomes are not recognized as a concern, and climate change is not even mentioned.

C. 8 EU Tanzania Strategy Paper for the Period 2001-2007 (2002) This country strategy paper defines the priorities for EU assistance to Tanzania in the period 2001-2007. The main sectors to be targeted are transport infrastructure and basic education. Further assistance will go to governance and macro-economic support in line with the PRSP objectives. Ongoing programs in agriculture, water & sewerage, and environment, will be continued. Despite the vulnerability of some of these sectors, even current climate risks are mentioned only once, in the margins of an agriculture section.

33 It is noted that Tanzania had not yet ratified the UNFCCC, but was in the process of doing so.


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C. 9 Ireland Aid Country Strategy Paper for Bilateral Aid Programme 2000 – 2002 (1999) Ireland’s country strategy focuses on poverty reduction. While increasing food and livelihoods security are among the key goals, weather and climate-related risks are not mentioned at all. In the coastal zone, Ireland Aid is financing the Tanga Coastal Zone Conservation and Development Programme, managed by IUCN, which aims to address issues like the destruction of coral reefs and mangrove swamps. Again, no reference is made to climate change.

C. 10 JICA Country Study for Japan’s Official Development Assistance to the United Republic of Tanzania (1997) Country Profile on Environment (1999) The JICA country study recognizes the severe economic implications of climate risks in Tanzania: “Several factors are considered directly responsible for the weakened economy. They include certain political and economic policy choices made following independence, a rapidly growing population, climate anomalies, and a deteriorating conditions for trade in the international market.” Recognizing the severe pressures on Tanzania’s natural resource base, JICA aims to provide assistance to alleviate those pressures, particularly in the forestry and water resources sectors. However, no attention is paid to interactions of climate-related risks, poverty, and land degradation and water scarcity, or to ways to reduce that vulnerability.

The JICA Country Profile on Environment gives a complete overview of environmental problems facing Tanzania. It includes issues like desertification, deforestation and forest fires, but does not mention new risks due to climate change. Even climate variability is largely ignored, for instance when discussing water resources: “Tanzania is a well-watered country with moderate to good rainfall and with many rivers and lakes. However, rainfall is seasonal and water is not readily available in the dry season.” The most pressing problems, however, occur not in the average dry season, but in a dryer than normal period, due to climate variability.

C. 11 SIDA Tanzania Country Strategy 2001-2005 (2000) The country strategy mentions that desertification, deforestation, and problems with coastal and marine environments and urban settlements threaten Tanzania’s sustainable development. However, neither climate change, nor even current climate risks that interact with these issues, are discussed.

C. 12 USAID Tanzania Summary Strategic Plan for Environment and Natural Resources (1999) Annual Report (2002) This strategic plan provides an update of previous work of USAID in the area of environmentally sustainable natural resources management. Its new focus will be on improved conservation of coastal resources and wildlife in targeted areas. Climate change and sea level rise are not among the listed causes of coastal degradation. Similarly, several possibly vulnerable biodiversity projects neglect climate risks. Similarly, climate risks do not appear in USAID’s Annual Report for Tanzania.


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APPENDIX D: REVIEW OF SELECTED DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS/PROGRAMS

D.1 Projects dealing explicitly with climate related risks

D.1.1 US Country Studies Program

The US Country Studies Program supported several studies in Tanzania, on both mitigation and vulnerability & adaptation. Results from these studies, which were performed by the Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology (CEEST) in Dar es Salaam, are reviewed in the Tier-1 component of this project.

D.1.2 Draft National Action Plan on Climate Change in Tanzania (CEEST, 1998)

This Plan, developed with underlying materials from the US Country Study, gives a comprehensive overview of Tanzania’s vulnerability to climate change in various sectors, and discusses both mitigation and adaptation options. For adaptation, the focus is on no-regrets measures integrated in sectoral development. Some adaptation options are proposed in Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Water Resources, and Coastal Zones. No attention is paid to possible overlaps of adaptation and mitigation options, such as in the forestry sector.

While this 1998 Draft Plan is comprehensive and detailed, it is unclear what its impact has been. It appears that it has not been formally adopted by the Government. Moreover, its recommendations are not well reflected in subsequent sectoral and national development plans.

D.1.3 GTZ (Energy and Transport Division) : Measures to Implement the UN FCCC: Technological and other Options for the Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in Tanzania (1995)

This somewhat older report discusses GHG mitigation options in Tanzania, including in the forestry sector. This sector might allow for projects that integrate adaptation and mitigation goals, but these are not discussed.

D.2 Other Development Programs and Projects

D.2.1 World Bank Forest Conservation and Management Project Project Appraisal Document (2001) Social and Environmental Considerations (2002)

This project focuses on the development of the forestry sector, and on biodiversity conservation in Tanzania’s forests. The latter component, which is supported by the GEF and implemented jointly with UNDP, focuses on the Eastern Arc forests, which are recognized as “biodiversity hotspots”. Besides their biodiversity value, these forests provide local livelihoods, and are crucial as water catchment areas for Tanzania’s water supply and hydroelectric power generation.


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The project also aims to contribute to carbon sequestration, partly by limiting forest fires: “The main techniques for increasing carbon uptake in miombo is the reduction in fire frequency. Experiments in many parts of Africa have shown that woody biomass and soil carbon both increase if fires are excluded. Permanent fire exclusion is virtually impossible in the strongly seasonal miombo climate, but a reduction in frequency is probably achievable at reasonable cost. This would simultaneously increase carbon dioxide uptake and decrease the emission of methane and ozone precursors.”

While the project thus explicitly addresses climate change, current climate-related risks to the project itself are not discussed, and possible risks due to climate change, including more frequent forest and direct threats to biodiversity, are entirely ignored. It is unclear whether such considerations would have changed the project design, which in its current form already contributes to a reduction in the vulnerability of these valuable forests.

D.2.2 GEF/World Bank Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (supplemental credit) Project Information Document (2001) Integrated Safeguards Sheet (2001)

This project addresses the management of Lake Victoria, and affects the three countries around the lake (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania), with Tanzania acting as the regional coordinator. It had many components, varying from community-level management, to watershed improvement, to hydro-meteorological monitoring. Given the far-reaching environmental issues at stake, the project aims to put the region on a long-term path of better management of the Lake and its surrounding natural resources. Despite this long-term focus, climatic changes, which might have strong effects on water resources and ecosystems, are not considered.

D.2.3 GEF/UNDP Aerial Survey of the Threats to Mt Kilimanjaro Forests (2002) [www.tz.undp.org]

This aerial survey is part of UNDP’s Community Management of Protected Areas Conservation Project (COMPACT), which promotes community-based biodiversity conservation in and around World Heritage Sites (such as Kilimanjaro). The main threats identified for the Kilimanjaro region were: logging of indigenous trees, forest fires, and establishment of settlements. No specific attention was paid to issues related to changing climatic circumstances.

D.2.4 USAID Tanzania Coastal Management Partnership: Options for a national integrated coastal management policy (undated.)

This report (prepared by Tanzania’s National Environment Management Council and the University of Rhode Island/Coastal Resources Center and supported by USAID) analyzes options for integrated coastal zone management in Tanzania. Climate change and sea level rise are not discussed. While an ICZM approach would certainly contribute to the sustainable development of Tanzania’s coastal areas, opportunities may be missed.


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APPENDIX E: SOURCES FOR DOCUMENTATION

Statistics CRS database, OECD/World Bank http://www.oecd.org/htm/M00005000/M00005347.htm Government Documents PRSP related documents www.worldbank.org/prsp Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) (2000) PRSP progress report (2001) PRSP Joint Staff Assessment (by IDA and IMF) (2001) PRSP Progress Report Joint Staff Assessment (by IDA and IMF) (2001) Other national strategies www.tzonline.org Tanzania Assistance Strategy (A Medium Term Framework for Promoting Local Ownership and Development Partnerships) Consultation draft, Ministry of Finance (2001) Tanzania Development Vision 2025 National Environmental Policy (1997) UN Conventions UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) www.unfccc.int UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) www.unccd.int Proposed National Action Programme (1999) Second National Report (2002) UN Convention on Biodiversity (UNCBD) www.biodiv.org National Report (2001) www.biodiv.org World Summit on Sustainable Development www.johannesburgsummit.org National Report to The Earth Summit on Sustainable Development (2002) Country Profile (2002) Donor Agencies AfDB www.afdb.org Country Environmental Profile, Environmental and Social Policy Working Paper Series, no. 26 (1995); Country Strategy Paper 1999-2001 (2000) DFID www.dfid.gov.uk Country Strategy Paper (1999) GEF/UNDP Aerial Survey of the Threats to Mt Kilimanjaro Forests (2002)www.tz.undp.org


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EU Tanzania Strategy Paper for the Period 2001-2007 (2002) IFAD www.ifad.org Country Strategic Opportunities Paper (1998) JICA www.jica.go.jp Country Study for Japan’s Official Development Assistance to the United Republic of Tanzania (1997) Country Profile on Environment (1999) SIDA Tanzania Country Strategy 2001-2005 (2000) UN United Nations Emergency Consolidated Appeal for the Drought in Tanzania 2001 Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2002-2006 (2001) UNDP www.undp.org.np United National Development Programme (UNDP)/Population Fund (UNPF) Second country cooperation framework for the United Republic of Tanzania (2002-2006) (2001) UNEP www.unep.org USAID www.usaid.gov Summary Strategic Plan for Environment and Natural Resources (1999) Annual Report (2002) Tanzania Coastal Management Partnership: Options for a national integrated coastal management policy (n.d.) World Bank www.worldbank.org Country Assistance Strategy (2000) World Bank Forest Conservation and Management Project. Project Appraisal Document (2001), Social and Environmental Considerations (2002) GEF/World Bank Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (supplemental credit), Project Information Document (2001), Integrated Safeguards Sheet (2001) US Country Studies Program GTZ (Energy and Transport Division) Measures to Implement the UN FCCC: Technological and other Options for the Mitigation of

Greenhouse Gases in Tanzania (1995)


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