Volume 1Summary

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19760016987 2020-06-12T06:21:44+00:00Z

, Prepaced By

A TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT TEAM

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.University of California

Stanford UniversityGellman Research Associates, Inc.

Science Applications, Inc.

The views and conclusions presented in thisreport are those of the staff of the Technol-ogy Assessment Team and do not necessarilyreflect those of the National Aeronauticsand Space Administration or the U.S. De-partment of Transportation.

TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENTOF FUTUREINTERCITYPASSENGERTRANSPORTATIONSYSTEMS

VOLUME 1SUMMARY REPORT

Prepared For

National Aeronautics and Space Administrationand

U.S. Department of Transportation

March 1976

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION 32 STUDY APPROACH 53 ISSUES 74 TECHNOLOGICAL CANDIDATES... .115 SCENARIOS 156 THE WORKSHOP 187 IMPACT ASSESSMENT 228 RECOMMENDATIONS 25

1INTRODUCTION

Study Objectives

The technology assessment of intercity trans-portation systems was sponsored jointly bythe National Aeronautics and Space Admini-stration (NASA) and the U.S. Department ofTransportation (DOT). The purpose of thestudy was to assess technical, economic, en-vironmental, and sociopolitical issues associ-ated with future intercity transportation sys-tem options. The NASA/DOT OversightCommittee for the project noted that:

"A goal of this technology assessment is to as-sess the impacts of new transportation tech-nologies on society and to identify potentialproblems, drawbacks, and advantages of in-dividual technologies.

"A second goal is to identify research and an-alysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, toaugment positive impacts or to better under-stand these impacts. We hope to developvaluable insights to societal benefits or prob-lems produced by the potential introductionsof the technologies, and to develop recom-mendations for research and technology effortstoward improving the impacts.

The emphasis was on domestic passenger' transportation, but interfaces with freightand international transportation wereconsidered.

Purpose of Technology Assessment

The term "technology assessment" is inten-ded to identify a particular approach to theanalysis of technological innovation. How-ever, the concept is relatively new and a num-ber of different kinds of research effortshave been termed technology assessmentstudies. Even though a consensus on themeaning of technology assessment has notbeen established, the following is an exampleof the principles that were considered in thisproject:

"Technology assessment is a class of policystudies which systematically examine the ef-fects on society that may occur when a tech-nology is introduced, extended, or modifiedwith special emphasis on those consequencesthat are unintended, indirect, or delayed."

— Joseph CoatesOffice of Technology Assessment

U.S. Senate

Thus, technology assessment studies can pro-vide a broad appreciation of impacts andimplementation problems and may contributeto improved research and technology decisions.

Experimental Nature of the Project

This study was an experiment in the use oftechnology assessment as a tool to assist inthe identification of basic research and tech-nology development tasks that should be un-dertaken. Among the experimental featuresof this project (particularly in combination)were the following:

• The study's broad scope—encompas-sing all intercity passenger transporta-tion (and interactions with freightservice) to and beyond 2000 A.D.

• The use of scenarios to describe alter-native future settings and intercitytransportation development.

• The use of a joint industry (consul-tant)/university/government team toperform the study.

• The formation of a group of "studyparticipants" from government, trans-portation and other industry, and ac-ademic institutions to review and con-tribute to the progress of the project.

It is expected that forthcoming studies willcontinue to experiment with these and otherpossible features of a technology assessment,seeking improved ways to define project ob-jectives and scopes and continuing to refinestudy methodologies.

About This Volume

This volume summarizes project activities,but only gives a brief overview of projectdocumentation. Although some readers canscan selected chapters in this volume to findneeded information, others will have to referto another volume for more detailed infor-mation. Other volumes of the study's finalreport are the following:

Volume 2 — Identification of Issues Affect-ing Intercity Transportation

Volume 3 — Technological Characteristics ofFuture Intercity TransportationModes

Volume 4 — Study Scenarios

Volume 5 — Workshop Proceedings

Volume 6 — Impact Assessment

Volume 7 — Study Recommendations

STUDY APPROACH

The overall approach to conducting the pro-ject is shown in the summarized task flowchart below.

During the first half of the 13-month study,project team members conducted an analysisof intercity transportation system options tothe year 2000. Initial tasks of this effort in-cluded the identification of issues affectingthe future of intercity transportation and theidentification of candidate transportationtechnologies. Work on these two tasks con-tinued throughout the study.

In the issues task, papers were prepared byindividuals representing diverse backgrounds

and interests. The majority of the papers setforth viewpoints on social, political, institu-tional, and economic mechanisms which willinfluence the way that transportation tech-nologies will evolve and be put into service.

The technology task focused on the futureperformance characteristics of present inter-city modes and possible new technologicalforms of transportation. Modes were con-sidered within general classes such as air, rail,high-speed ground (levitated), and highwaytransportation.

The project team's assessment of intercitytransportation system options was carried

ISSUES

BACKGROUNDSCENARIOS

TRANSPORTATIONSCENARIOS

TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY

IMPACTASSESSMENT

RECOMMENDATIONS

out within the framework of scenarios. Back-ground scenarios were developed to describefour different states of society in the year2000. Then, for each background, a trans-portation scenario was developed and ana-lyzed. Each of the transportation scenariosincluded a variety of postulated transporta-tion innovations.

At the midpoint of the study, a week-longWorkshop was held to identify and assessimpacts related to future transportation al-ternatives. The Workshop was attended bythe project team and 40 invited study par-ticipants from government, industry, andacademic and other institutions. Participantswere selected early in the project, and theymade contributions throughout the study byreviewing draft reports.

After the Workshop, project team effortsfocused on the continued assessment of im-pacts related to possible future intercitytransportation innovations and the develop-ment of study recommendations.

The study approach led to the identificationof a large number of possible direct and in-direct consequences of technological develop-ments that may occur in intercity transpor-tation during the next 25 to 50 years. Someof these impacts are well understood and areseen as likely. Consequences of this kind haveled to study recommendations regarding thecharacteristics of future intercity transporta-tion modes. Many other possible impacts areonly hazily perceived and their likelihood isuncertain. In these instances, study recom-mendations are oriented toward furtherresearch and analysis activities.

In addition to the Study Recommendations(Volume 7), the following are considered tobe important outputs of the project:

• The diverse opinions contained inthe study's issue papers (Volume 2)

• The compilation of intercity trans-portation technology data (Volume3)

• The study's approach to impact as-sessment (Volume 6)

Moreover, the study approach has providedsome insights on the technology assessmentprocess. Some of these insights are outlined inthe box below; these and others are describedin Volume 7, Study Recommendations.

STUDY TEAM FINDINGS ON THETECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT PROCESS

"What if" questions are central to a technol-ogy assessment. It is important to pose thesequestions properly. Without sufficient analy-sis, there is a danger of assuming away theimpacts that are sought. On the other hand,too much effort can be devoted to the analy-sis of the direct effects of a technological in-novation and not enough effort to the moredifficult search for secondary and unantici-pated impacts.

The study team found that there is an appar-ent tendency for nontechnologists who par-ticipate in the technology assessment process

to focus on negative attributes and uncertain-ties regarding an innovation, rather than pos-itive impacts.

Technology assessment requires the input ofmany disciplines. The fact that these inputsare difficult to; organize and document pre-sents a major challenge to making a technol-ogy assessment I valuable. The workshop con-cept has potential for bridging the "commun-ication gap" between disciplines. However,it appears that the group dynamics of a tech-nology assessment workshop are likely toproduce compromise positions rather thancontroversial unanticipated impacts.

3ISSUES

The issues task addressed major issues andtrends that will affect the future of intercitytransportation. Papers were prepared by in-dividuals representing a diverse array of back-grounds and viewpoints, in an effort toassemble a substantial collection of discus-sion material.

The papers describe a variety of mechanismsthat influence the way transportation tech-nologies will evolve and be put into service.In some cases, the authors argue for changeof existing mechanisms (e.g., regulatory re-form) or advocate specific technologies (e.g.,electric highway vehicles). Other papers ex-plore trends affecting intercity transportationsuch as economic growth.

This section summarizes the issue papers inselected subject areas.

Society and Politics

Since intercity transportation systems pro-vide an essential service affecting segmentsof society, it is important to try to matchsystems' development to societal wants. Whilemany of these wants may seem obvious, manyother wants cannot be fully articulated.Moreover, society is often unable to compro-mise on competing wants. This suggests thatmajor intercity transportation programs mustexhibit the properties of variety, suitabilityto incrementalism, flexibility, exhibition ofshort-term benefits, and, especially, broadgeographic and demographic incidence ofbenefits.

The future geographic distribution of popu-lation and wealth is largely dictated by trendsthat can be observed today. Even extremeassumptions regarding social policy and eco-nomic developments, when systematicallytraced through to demographic implications,do not seem to yield significant differencesin possible settlement patterns for the next25 years. The economic resources at the com-mand of the population are, however, subjectto considerable future variability, dependingupon the future state of the economy andpublic policies.

Current political realities dictate that nomajor publicly funded transportation pro-gram can be undertaken without evidence ofdirect benefits to some large percentage ofthe nation's congressional districts. The im-plication is that there must be a serious searchfor institutional and technological develop-ments that will permit piecemeal and wide-spread infusion of proposed improvements,simultaneously in many locations throughoutthe country.

A key criterion for any major transportationimprovement program, under current politi-cal conditions, is substantial opportunity forprivate sector involvement in the enterprise.Evidence is clear that private sector resistanceto a proposal, on the grounds of overt publiccompetition, is generally sufficient to kill anypublic transportation program.

The options are either to recognize anddeal with the system, as is, or attempt tobring about a basic change in the politicalsystem to accommodate other forms ofimplementation.

The U.S. political system is steadily becomingmore and more complex, involving multipli-cation of interest groups and special purposeagencies, with an attendant proliferation ofpolicy options. These trends are causing, andwill continue to cause, difficulties in reachingconsensus on any major policy matter. Simplegovernmental reorganization seems of littlehelp. The possibility of continuing our cur-rent political forms into the future may de-pend, in part, on the generation and carefuluse, in the political process, of informationon the incidence of program costs and bene-fits. Such considerations must be given con-siderable weight in the development of majortransportation development programs. Evenwith enlightened government action, it is un-clear that improvements in the deliberativeprocess can keep pace with the barriers toeffective policymaking posed by these trendstoward greater and greater complexity. What-ever the outcome, there is little doubt thatthe overhead consumed by that process (e.g.,Environmental Impact Statements) will con-tinue to expand in the future.

A key social impediment to any major futuretransportation innovation may be a growingpopular aversion to "bigness." Proposals forinnovation must explicitly come to gripswith this problem.

The Environment

No one can chart the exact course that theenvironmental movement will take in futureyears, or its implications for intercity trans-portation. It seems clear that the intense feel-ing of the late 1960s has moderated some-what, and environmental concern is nowoften being traded off against other objec-tives. One can see a mixed pattern of feelingson environmental matters emerging, wherethe level of concern in each geographic area

is matched to its economic structure, its en-dowments, and its political constituency.While evidence of a trend toward balancedapplication of environmental laws is generallyevident, geographic disputes and concernover the economic health of the country andthe world could bring about conditions forconsiderable future divisiveness in dealingwith environmental matters, with concom-mitant obstruction of needed developmentprograms.

Technology and Organization

Considerable opportunity for intercity trans-portation system improvement lies in thetechnological and institutional integration ofthe line-haul and collector-distributor func-tions of current and future transport tech-nologies. Since all transport systems exhibitsignificant economies of scale, society mustcarefully guard against overemphasizing thegains realizable in high-density line-haul, atthe expense of the total door-to-door jour-ney. Current economic analysis methods,financing, and ownership patterns for inter-city transport significantly exacerbate thisproblem, but also reveal possibly fruitfulareas for improvement.

A transportation supply system may beviewed as the combination of vehicles, ways,and driver skills. Fragmentation in patternsof ownership and responsibility for technol-ogy delivery has often resulted in a historyof sequential suboptimization of the separatecomponents. The resulting system may bequite different than what could have beenachieved through overall system optimiza-tion. Herein, perhaps, lies an opportunity forsignificant technological and institutionalinnovation.

The future of intercity transportation de-pends primarily upon the evolution of thetechnology and technology-delivery systemsassociated with the automobile. Those sys-tems, in turn, are heavily dependent uponthe availability and disposition of personalwealth, and the mechanisms of growth, stag-nation, and change within the automobileindustry. While the future path of develop-ment for the automobile remains largely indoubt, there is evidence that points to majorchanges in both the nature of automobiletechnology and in patterns of automobileuse during the next few decades. Whetherthese forces for change will be understoodand controlled to improve the effectivenessof the personal transportation systems thatfinally emerge is a major question for whichno ready answer is now available.

The future of transportation technology willbe influenced significantly by foreign inno-vators, despite entry barriers to U.S. markets.This influence will be a mixture of directintroduction of foreign technology and localduplication of this technology by domesticentrepreneurs. Presumably, as the world senseof community increases, the balance will tilttowards the former means of influence.

List of Study Issue PapersI

Current and Future Forms of Intercity Pas-senger Transportation — W. L. Garrison, Uni-versity of CalifoVnia, Berkeley

Constraints to the Implementation of Inter-city Transportation Innovations — A. J.Gellman, J. P. Price, J. J. Grocki, and R. P.Whorf, Gellman Research Associates, Inc.

The Congressional Politics of TransportationExpenditure: Implications for the Future —David W. Jones' Jr., and James F. Miller, Jr.,Stanford University

Macroeconomic' Issues Through the Year2000 — R. U. Ayres, International Researchand Technology Corporation

Financial Issues Impacting Intercity Trans-portation - J.' P. Price and R. W. Luce,Gellman Research Associates, Inc.

i

The Cost-Revenue Squeeze in Highway Fi-nance — David W. Jones, Jr., University ofCalifornia, Berkeley

Interactions Between Capital Funds Sourcesand Technological Changes in Rail and AirPassenger Transport - J. P. Price, GellmanResearch Associates, Inc.

Issues in Regulation of Intercity Transporta-tion - J. J. Grocki, J. P. Price, and R. P.Whorf, Gellman; Research Associates, Inc.

The Impact of Deregulation — J. P. Price andD. Greenstein, Gellman Research Associates,Inc. |

Organizational and Regulatory Issues —J. P.Carter and B. Bernhard, University of Cali-fornia, Berkeley

8

Resource Availability Inputs to IntercityTransportation to the Year 2000: With Spe-cial Reference to Energy Resources — H. W.Bruck, University of California, Berkeley

The Future of Concern for the Environ-ment — Robert H. Doyle, Richard W.Schmidt, and D. Michael Cullivan — Peat,Marwick, Mitchell & Co.

Social Impacts on Intercity Transportation-Robert P. Whorf and William White, Jr.,Gellman Research Associates, Inc.

A Note on Technology Pessimism — W. L.Garrison, University of California, Berkeley

The Effects of Existing Capital Stocks onTechnology Assessments — J. P. Price, W. B.Allen, and R. P. Whorf, Gellman ResearchAssociates, Inc.

The Transportation/Communication Trade-off — David W. Jones, Jr., Stanford University

Intercity Technology and Organization: AProposal — J.' P. Carter, University of Cali-fornia, Berkeley

The Auto-Industrial Era — Is It At An End?—John Mollenkopf, Stanford University

Electric Highway Vehicles: A Way to SaveOur Mobility, Air, Energy, and Fortunes —Richard B. Fradella

Automobile Durability —James F. Miller, Jr.,University of California, Berkeley

Energy Considerations in Goods Transporta-tion — Ernest Koenigsberg, University ofCalifornia, Berkeley

Trends in Freight Transportation: 1975 to2000 — Vincent Roggeveen, Stanford Uni-versity

Transportation/Communication Trade-Offs

Future communication technologies willoffer high quality telecommunications anddata transmission features closely approxi-mating the information-exchange capabilitiesof face-to-face communications. However, itis impossible on this basis to predict a netdecrease in the need for travel. Although

some reduction in the need for current typesof trips may be possible, it is also necessaryto anticipate an expansion of opportunityfor human interaction that will generate aconsiderable amount of new travel. Thus, itis not possible to see any overall lessening ofthe need for travel in the future due to com-munications technology development.

Finance

It is not at all clear whether the financial re-sources to support future intercity transpor-tation development will be available. Largedollar amounts will be required to maintainacceptable levels of service in existing high-ways, airports, and rails, without consider-ing proposals to provide new significantlyimproved facilities and services. Existingtransportation funding sources are clearlyincapable of providing the needed resources.Important financial breakthroughs mustoccur in the future to prevent the collapse ofcurrent services, as well as finance any desirednew programs.

There is an apparent national political shiftaway from further development of highwaysand toward greater expansion of public pas-senger transport. However, it is not clearwhat the implications of this trend will befor intercity transportation. It is questionablewhether recent congressional actions thathave markedly increased the funds for urbantransit improvements will carry forward aphilosophy for improving analogous inter-city systems.

Labor

Countervailing forces exist which make itdifficult to estimate the future size, and com-position of the labor force and, hence, pro-ductive capacity. On the one hand, decliningbirth rates and the potential for a significantsocial "dropout" rate suggest a significantfuture decrease in both the proportion andabsolute number of workers in the popula-tion. On the other hand, the future may bringsuch a large increased involvement of womenin all aspects of business that the effects ofthe above trends may be significantly diluted.To a great extent, the resulting size of thelabor force is a policy variable that can beinfluenced by public, social, and economicprograms.

Implementation of technological and institu-tional innovation in intercity transportationis generally dependent upon the concurrenceof labor unions. Design of suitable incentivesto obtain such concurrence must be includedin any serious proposal to improve intercitytransportation. The history of transportinnovation contains examples of both insight-ful and clumsy handling of labor union in-terests. Such experiences can provide valuableguidance toward methods to assuage poten-tial labor resistance to desirable transportimprovements.

Energy

The coming decade will be a most criticalperiod from the point of view of U.S. vul-nerability to scarcities and price gouging inenergy supplies. It will be a period in whichthe country must choose between very heavycapital investment, just to keep energy sup-plies arriving at a somewhat expanded rate, ormammoth investment both to keep currentsupplies coming and to pursue the long-rangeobjective of national energy independence.In either event, energy-related investmentswill command a dramatically increased shareof the future GNP, making significant inroadsinto financial resources available for otherpurposes, particularly intercity transporta-tion. Under these conditions, it is difficultto envision more than incremental, state-of-the-art intercity transportation investmentsthrough the year 2000. If, however, energyR&D pays off near the end of the century in

practical fusion or artificial fuel technologies,the first half of the 21st century could bringconsiderable innovation in intercity trans-port technologies.

Regardless of government energy policy,future scarcities and price increases for trans-port fuels are likely. Under a vigorous ProjectIndependence, these effects are likely tooccur in the near term, due to conscious pol-icy. Under a vacillation policy, these effectswould probably come later, and much moredisruptively. In either case, the effect on inter-city transportation service and travel is notlikely to be extreme, since energy does notaccount for a large percentage of intercitytransportation costs. However, if energy costsrise severalfold and begin to dominate othercost components, the restructuring effectswill be felt first in nonessential areas, such aspersonal leisure and vacation travel. The mostdisruptive situation for intercity transport

involves the possibility of government re-sponse to shortages through rationing, whichcould impact across the board, affecting allkinds of personal and goods transport.

National policy and market mechanisms re-sponding to recent and possible future in-creases in energy costs and the state of theeconomy may dictate a major readjustmentof previous equilibria now reflected in thenational pattern of goods production anddistribution. Careful scrutiny of the costtrade-offs existing among different transportmodes, and of the trade-off between decen-tralized production, on the one hand, andcentralized production with high transportcosts, on the other, could produce a newpattern involving shifts in industrial locationand concommitant transport demand. Suchshifts may have important new unforeseenimplications for jthe development of transportservice and supporting technology.

Regulatory Control

Government regulatory policies can be formi-dable barriers to some forms of technologicaland organizational innovation in intercitytransportation. However, regulatory agenciesmay now be facing a major redefinition oftheir proper role and methods in this area.Proposed improvements to transportationinfrastructure, equipment, and service mustrelate to the different forms of federal andstate regulatory activites that may emerge inthe future.Although a broad range of economic andnoneconomic constraints to transportationimplementation must be considered in con-nection with any serious proposal for in-novation, three key elements warrant carefulconsideration — the locus of regulatorypower, the national policy position regardingthe proper balance between competition and

economies of scale, and the underlying socialclimate, or "social awareness." Currently,these and other considerations create a cli-mate seemingly quite hostile to significanttransportation innovation.

Some lack of performance in transportationregulation and technology development iscertainly caused by a tendency to apply pastworkable solutions to new problems, eventhough these past solutions may not be en-tirely suitable. This tendency reflects a legit-imate need in public policymaking to makeproblem-solving processes routine ratherthan to try to solve each new problem frombasic principles. Clearly, however, there is aneed to design and institute higher-level pol-icies in government that cause solutions tochange when the problems change signifi-cantly. The mechanisms for doing this arenot now apparent.

10

cisions affectingMany critical investment and regulatory de-

intercity transportation aregenerally sensitive to the state of the econ-omy and specifically sensitive to the state oftransportation business conditions. Transportregulation tends to respond to national eco-nomic and resource crises and to be largelyoverlooked in favorable economic times.

A cogent argument can be made that com-plete deregulation of intercity transportationis a sure invitation to eventual dominance ofthe sector by a small number of giant, un-competitive companies. This and other rea-sons suggest that regulatory reforms will beapplied in an incremental and cautious man-ner. The future may bring even more govern-ment regulationcurrently exists.ficantly different nature.

of intercity transport thanalthough perhaps of a signi-

TECHNOLOGICALCANDIDATES

The technology task of this study focusedon the future performance characteristics ofpresent intercity modes and possible newtechnological forms of transportation. Know-ing that there were hundreds of intercitytransportation technological forms or varia-tions in which the guideway, suspension,propulsion, energy requirements, pollution,noise, or other characteristics differ, thetechnology team chose to separate modesinto general classes such as air transportation,improved rail passenger transportation, high-speed ground (levitated) transportation, andhighway transportation.

In this section, a brief summary of some ofthe modal possibilities is given. Included arethe essential technological characteristics,their advantages and disadvantages, and thetechnical advances or breakthroughs, if any,that appear necessary for implementation ofthe mode.

It is important to avoid confusing the "most-likely transportation modes" for the futureand desirable future research and develop-

ment activities. These activities are intendedto create new knowledge that may contrib-ute to the development of an economicallyviable system with desirable service and per-formance characteristics. One never knowsin advance what the results may be. Althoughcertain technological developments may beless likely to become operational based oncurrent information, technological break-throughs or inventions may change the feas-ibility of these concepts. For example, in1947, jet transport studies showed maxi-mum ranges of about 750 miles and pooreconomics. Sweepback was a threat to flyingqualities. Many were fearful of the pressur-ization of passenger cabins at altitudes above30,000 feet. Twelve years later jet transportsrevolutionized travel.

Although there is currently a lack of optim-ism regarding some aircraft or ground trans-portation forms, basic research and technol-ogy development in all transportation areasshould be continued and constantly reviewed.The results may bear fruit in unexpectedways.

11

AIR TRANSPORTATIONAdvanced Technology Subsonic Transports. Provide current speeds(± 10%) with less fuel consumption (30% below widebody transports)and lower seat-mile cost (-12%). Utilize improved transonic airfoilswhich permit thicker less-swept wings at any design speed, therebysaving structural weight; composite materials (graphite or boron fibersin any epoxy matrix) which save significantly in structural weight;active controls which permit reduced stability and thus save tail sur-face drag and weight; improved propulsion technology, which resultsin some modest efficiency gains; possible small aerodynamic improve-ments such as winglets; and designs optimized for high fuel costs, i.e.,higher aspect ratio (span). Logical next generation aircraft. Requiresextensive service tests of composite materials to prove acceptable lifecharacteristics.

CONVENTIONAL SUPERCRITICAL

Short Takeoff and Landing (STOL) Aircraft. Utilize propulsion sys-tem to substantially increase lift and permit short takeoff and land-ing distances; have higher operating and investment costs than con-ventional aircraft as well as higher fuel usage. Economic and energydisadvantages probably will prevent commercial use except in specialcircumstances, e.g., mountain recreational airstrips. Speed range fromMach number 0.6 to 0.8.

FARE VS. DESIGN FIELD LENGTH IN THE CALIFORNIA CORRIDORFOR QUIET PROPULSIVE LIFT AIRCRAFT (1972 DOLLARS)

35

S 30

1C<

202000 3000 4000

FIELD LENGTH (FT)

Supersonic Transports (SST). Have high cruise speeds, two to threetimes faster than sound. Trip times reduced by 45% to 55% on trans-atlantic ranges. Present Concorde aircraft have direct seat-mile coststriple and total costs double those of present widebody subsonics,fuel usage three times as high as subsonics. Second generation SSTwith today's technology would have direct costs considerably lessthan double and total costs 40% to 50%| higher than 747; fuel usage 2to 2.5 times as great per seat-mile. Sonic boom problems would haveto be resolved by currently unknown means to permit domestic use.Sonic booms and current estimates of costs indicating high break-evenfares will limit market. Require huge development investment beyondscope of private industry; require major breakthrough in propulsion(e.g., variable cycle engine) plus gains in aerodynamics and materialsto compete economically. Also need intense engine development toreduce nitrogen oxides in exhaust because of potentially seriousupper atmosphere ozone-layer threat.

COMPARISON OF BLOCK TIMES FOR THE BOEING

1000 2000 3000

RANGE (STATUTE MILES)

4000

OTHER AIR TECHNOLOGIES CONSIDERED:

Laminar flow controlNuclear-powered aircraftVertical takeoff and landing(VTOL) aircraft

Hydrogen-fueled aircraftHypersonic transportsLighter-than-airTurboprop (propfan) aircraft

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SURFACE TRANSPORTATION

Improved Passenger Train (IPT). Utilizes traditional twin steel rail,small improvements in existing guideways, advanced suspension sys-tems, and high power-to-weight propulsion. Will permit speeds of 80to 120 mph. Offers improved block times with minimum investment.

Advanced High-Speed Train. Requires new twin-rail high-qualityguideways with large radius curves, shallow grades, completely sep-erated rights-of-way, together with advanced propulsion systems suchas linear induction motors; speeds up to 250 mph design limit for rail.Offers further improvement in block time at substantial guideway in-vestment costs, about $3,200,000 per mile plus land and tunneling(or underpass) costs.

Bus. Provides public transportation service using the highway sys-tem. Gas turbine propulsion may improve economy and passengercomfort. Requires minimum investment; has flexible route capa-bility; is lowest cost common-carrier mode. Block speed equals50 mph under current speed limits.

Automobiles. Provide privacy, convenience, and comfort at low per-ceived cost, but at lower speeds than nonhighway modes. Improve-ments in engines, transmissions, and designs are expected to improvefuel economy by over 90% while maintaining acceptable emission stan-dards. Block speed equals 50 mph with current speed limits. Will al-ways be a popular intercity mode.

Automated Highways. Provide high-speed automatic control ofautomobiles or buses on highways. Based on radar or laser sensing ofguiding stripe. Require redundant control in the vehicle for safety.Would have a significant cost impact. Continuation of current speedlimits would reduce its potential value.

Multimode Vehicles. Would be small, possibly electric, vehicles withlocal range but operable on an electrically powered guideway forintercity travel. Requires special guideway or special lanes on normalhighway.

Tracked Levitated Vehicles (TLV). Provide maximum speed rangefrom 250 to 600 mph. System cost is dominated by guideway costs.Three noncpntact suspension technologies are available. Costs arecomparable.

• Tracked Air Cushion Vehicle (TACV): Fan or ram driven airis pushed through a large skirt (plenum) for suspension.

• Magnetic Levitation (Repulsion): Motion of superconductingmagnets over aluminum-lined guideway produces repellingmagnetic field for suspension.

• Magnetic Levitation (Attraction): Electromagnets attractedupward toward steel rails for suspension.

Propulsion options include linear induction motors, linear synchro-nous motors, or gas turbines (noisy).

Fares become reasonable for short to medium ranges and very highdemand. Travel times between city centers might be better than withaircraft.

MagneticShielding

AluminumGuideway"

Low Speed and StoppedSuspension System

Aluminum Thrust Rail

Liquid HeliumStorage

^SuperconductingMagnet

Linear Induction Motor

OTHER SURFACETECHNOLOGIES

CONSIDERED:

Auto-Train systems

Tube concepts

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COMPARISONS OF MODAL CHARACTERISTICS

BLOCK TIME

AUTOAND BUS

NOTE: GROUND DIST..115

AIR DISTANCE

1000 2000AIRLINE RANGE (NAUTICAL MILES)

ENERGY CONSUMPTIONSPECIFIC ENERGY IN 103 BTU/PSNGR-MILE (60% LOAD FACTOR)

Full Sized AutoCompact AutoAdvanced Auto

Diesel Bus

MatrolinerFuture IPT

TACVMAGLEV (ATT.)MAGLEV IREPUL.)

DC-9-30 (GOO Mi.)

707/DC-8"DC-10/L-1011/747-Advanced Subsonic*

SST(1976Techn.)

•1800 Statute Milet

COMPARATIVE FARES*

:KED!TRACKED!LEVITATED

VEHICLES (TLV)

ANNUALTRIP

DEMAND {MILLIONS)

• 20I , IMPROVED

'- I .„ PASSENGER- 30 I 40 TRAIN (IPT)-40

1000 I 2000

AIRLINE RANGE. STATUTE MILES

*This comparison is based on calculated fares (1974 prices) re-quired to cover:

• Direct and indirect operating costs

• Amortization of the infrastructure investment (whennot accounted for in indirect costs or a ticket tax)

• An 8% after tax profit on vehicle investment

See Volume 3 for other assumptions.

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SCENARIOS

Scenarios were used in this study to providea structure for assessing alternative futuretransportation technologies and policies.Direct forecasting of a presumed "mostlikely" state of the nation was rejected as anapproach because of the lack of credibilitythat any one such forecast would contain.Scenarios were adopted to assist in focusingdebate by providing several possible andinterestingly different futures in which tostudy the implications of transportationoptions.

"Background scenarios" were developed todescribe four different states of society inthe year 2000. Then, for each backgroundscenario, a "transportation scenario" wasdeveloped and analyzed.

Background Scenario Settings

The factors that were systematically variedamong the four background scenarios in-cluded the following:

• National viewpoint on public servicesand economic development, level ofprosperity, and capital formation

• Population growth and settlement pat-terns, life-styles

• Resource (e.g., energy) costs

• Government regulatory controls, levelsof R&D expenditure

Issue papers and other analyses contributedto the development of background scenarios.

Transportation Scenario Innovations

A number of different intercity transporta-tion innovations were postulated in the con-text of each background scenario. Thescenario descriptions included considerationof how year 2000 intercity transportationsystems might evolve from those currentlyin operation.The characteristics of the assumed transpor-tation systems were generally based on re-sults of the study's technology task, but insome cases more advanced characteristicswere postulated. The primary purpose ofthese extrapolations was to provide for wide-ranging future possibilities that may resultfrom currently unforeseen technologicalbreakthroughs.

Analysis of Scenarios

A qualitative analysis of the transportationscenarios was conducted to estimate changesin patronage, cost-revenue relationships, ener-gy consumption, and traffic safety resultingfrom the introduction of postulated innova-tions. The analysis design included selected"travel settings" and "reference cases" as abasis for measuring scenario effects.

Travel Settings

Travel corridors and city-pair travel marketswere selected as case examples for the intro-duction of scenario innovations:

• High-Density Travel Corridors, e.g.,Boston-New York-Washington, D.C.

• Large City-Pair Markets, e.g., LosAngeles-Washington, D.C.

• Smaller and/or Shorter Distance City-Pair Markets, e.g., Denver-Billings

The selected travel settings were viewed ascase examples of the potentially more wide-spread introduction of new technologies.

Reference Cases

To provide a basis for measuring impacts ofthe transportation systems postulated in agiven scenario, a set of four reference caseswas constructed — one reference case foreach background/transportation scenario.Thecommon feature among the four referencecases is that each has the same transportationtechnology for the year 2000; for all modes,only nominal improvements, if any, werepostulated relative to today's systems (e.g.,marginally improved fuel efficiency for auto-mobiles). The reference cases differ from oneanother, however, because of backgroundscenario conditions: population, income,wage rates, cost of capital, and price of fuel.Whenever a term such as "higher" or "lower"is used in describing a transportation sce-nario, it relates to the reference case for thatscenario. Because of variations in both trans-portation innovations and background con-ditions, comparisons of numerical resultscannot be readily made between transporta-tion scenarios.

15

SETTING

National emphasis is on economic development and encour-agement of business . . . Relaxation of many, business con-trols . . . Considerable growth in wealth and capital forma-tion . . . Worsening international tensions, resource cartels,and economic warfare . . . High capital and resource costs . . .Considerable R&D and large-scale innovation . . . Privatelyfinanced transportation innovations in dense markets, mini-mal service in sparse markets.

SCENARIO I

TRANSPORTATION INNOVATIONS

RAIL

BUS

AUTO

HIGH-DENSITY CORRIDORS

REDUCED FARES. BUT ALSOREDUCED FREQUENCY

SOME IPTI IMPROVED

PASSENGER TRAIN)

SOME ELECTRIC HIGHWAYS

LARGE CITY-PAIRS

SST

900-PASSENGER JETS

FASTER CTOL*, WITH

REDUCED FREQUENCY

IMPROVED AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL

MOSTLY

DISCONTINUED

70-MPH SPEED LIMIT

SMALLER/CLOSERCITY-PAIRS

DISCONTINUED

SERVICES

NOT AVAILABLE

(AS AT PRESENT)

*CTOL denotes conventional takeoff/landing aircraft

ANALYSIS RESULTS

PATRONAGEINCREASES IPT. ELECTRIC

| HIGHWAYS. SSTDECREASES "CORRIDOR-AIR,"

900 PASSENGER JET

NET REVENUESHIGHER AIR, RAIL (IPT). BUS

ENERGY CONSUMPTION• LOWER PER PASSENGER-MILE• HIGHER IN TOTAL

TRAFFIC SAFETYLITTLE CHANGE

SETTING

National emphasis is on restraint of big business and biggovernment and encouragement of competition and entre-preneurship . . . Control of large corporations through forcedpublic disclosure, antitrust, and some nationalization offoundering companies . . . Steadily increasing populationoriented to medium-size and nucleated cities . . . Moderategrowth in wealth and capital formation . . . Some relaxationof international tensions and favorable trade conditions . . .High capital and moderate resource costs . . . ConsiderableR&D and diffuse innovation ... Considerable transporta-tion innovation.

SCENARIO II

TRANSPORTATION INNOVATIONS

SMALLER/CLOSERHIGH-DENSITY CORRIDORS LARGE CITY-PAIRS CITY-PAIRS

AIR SHORT RUNWAY AIRCRAFT LOWER FARES FOR COMMUTER SERVICESCTOL

BUS MORE COMFORTABLE, SOME SMALL VAN"^ LOWER FARES *" SERVICE

PATRONAGEINCRE/

NETREVENLHIGHE

LOWER

ENERGY COMMIXED

TRAFFIC SAFLITTLE

ANALYSIS RESULTS

ISES IPT. SHORT RUN-WAY AND COM-

MUTER AIR: BUSES

ESI IPT. LARGE BUSES.

SHORT RUNWAY ANDCOMMUTER AIR

VAN BUSES (SUB-SIDIZED)

SUMPTIONRESULTS

ETYCHANGE

16

SETTING

Political leadership is consensus-oriented with flexiblepolicies aimed at mediating competing demands of well-organized interest groups . . . Growing complexity and in-efficiency in public and private services, with increasing gov-ernment subsidy in many areas . . . Slow population growthconcentrated in existing cities and suburbs . . . Extremelyslow economic growth . . . Moderate capital costs . . . Mod-erate resource costs initially, followed by a severe energycrisis in the 1990s ... Moderate R&D expenditures withslow implementation of innovations.

SCENARIO III

TRANSPORTATION INNOVATIONS

HIGH-DENSITY

CORRIDORS LARGE CITY PAIRS

- HIGHER FARES -

SMALLER/CLOSER

CITY-PAIRS

RAIL

BUS

AUTO

OTHER

REDUCED FREQUENCY

-« INCREASED FREQUENCIES-»•

LOWER FARES »-

REGULATIONS CURTAIL INTERCITY USE »•

ACCESS/EGRESS DEGRADED •-

ANALYSIS RESULTS

PATRONAGE

INCREASES

DECREASES

NET REVENUES

HIGHER

LOWER

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

LOWER PER PASSENGER-MILELOWER IN TOTAL

TRAFFIC SAFETY

FEWER PASSENGER FATALITIES

IPT. BUS

AUTO. AIR

IPT

AIR. BUS, RAIL

SETTING

A strong political coalition has emerged that is committedto ambitious social and economic reform . . . Strict govern-ment control of key enterprises and eventual governmentownership of many . . . Major growth in public services . . .Steadily increasing population oriented to medium-size citiesand nucleated metropolitan areas . . . No-growth economicpolicy . . . Considerable relaxation of international tensions. . . Low capital and moderate resource costs, but with heavytaxation of private resource use . . . R&D closely focusedon national social priorities, yielding significant innovationsin energy production and transportation.

SCENARIO IV

TRANSPORTATION INNOVATIONS

HIGH-DENSITYCORRIDORS

REDUCED FREQUENCY

OF SERVICE

LARGE CITY-PAIRS

CHEAPER.FASTER

CTOL

SMALLER/CLOSERCITY-PAIRS

IMPROVED SMALL

AIRCRAFT SERVICES

IMPROVED AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL

MOSTLY

DISCONTINUED

LOWER FARES

SOME NEW ROUTES

75-MPH SPEED LIMIT

HMPROVED FUEL CONSUMPTION -

LARGE IMPROVEMENTS TO INTERCITY ACCESS/EGRESS

BECAUSE OF URBAN TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS

ANALYSIS RESULTS

PATRONAGEINCREASES.

DECREASES

TLV, SMALL AIRCRAFT, BUSESAUTO

NET REVENUESHIGHER TLV (VS. RAIL)MIXED AIRLOWER BUS

ENERGY CONSUMPTIONLOWER PER PASSENGER-MILEMIXED RESULTS IN TOTAL

TRAFFIC SAFETYLITTLE CHANGE

17

THE WORKSHOP

A key feature of the project was a Workshopat the midpoint of the study to review inter-mediate results and to identify and debateissues and impacts related to future transpor-tation alternatives. Hershey, Pennsylvania,was the site of the Workshop during the weekof September 7, 1975.

The Workshop was attended by the projectteam and 40 invited study participants, whorepresent a variety of interests, includingtechnology, transportation policy, economicsand finance, consumer representation, envi-ronmental concerns, resource consumption,and transportation industry management.Participants were selected early in the proj-ect and they contributed to the study byreviewing draft reports.The Workshop was conducted primarily insmall working groups termed "assigned pan-els." There were four such panels; they metseveral times during the week and followedgenerally parallel lines of inquiry. The mem-bership of the assigned panels had beenestablished before the Workshop by the proj-ect team to include a variety of viewpointsin each group. Early panel sessions focusedon a review and critique of study scenarios,but most of the time was devoted to impactassessment. Each panel prepared a report oftheir deliberations.

Time was also allotted at the Workshop for"special topic sessions." Potential topics weresuggested by study participants and sign-upsheets were used to gauge interest in holdinga session. In each case where sufficient in-terest developed, two or three hours wasdevoted to a small group discussion. Topicsincluded:

• The role of government in research andtechnology

• Transportation for the disadvantaged

• Changes in transportation regulation

• Energy options

• Access / egress / terminals / intermodaltransfer

Papers describing the sessions are included inthe Workshop Proceedings, Volume 5.

Major themes that emerged during the Work-shop are presented here, together with sam-ples of panel results.

18

MAJOR WORKSHOP THEMESCapital May Be Scarce

A dominant issue at the Workshop relates tothe availability of funds for future intercitytransportation system development. Manyparticipants anticipate that capital — bothpublic and private - will be scarce. Further,much of that which is available will be de-voted to such needs as the development ofenergy resources. Capital scarcity was seento be a particularly formidable impedimentto the introduction of new large-scale tech-nologies but concerns are also noted on theavailability of funds for maintenance and in-cremental improvement of existing intercitysystems.

There is need, however, to continue transpor-tation research and technology developmentactivities on new systems. Institutional ar-rangements and funding mechanisms areneeded to enable long-range technology ex-plorations so these new systems can be readyfor implementation when conditions arefavorable.

Automobiles Will Continue as a DominantIntercity Mode

Considerable attention was directed to thefuture of the private automobile. A near-unanimous view is that the mobility and pri-vacy provided by autos will maintain themode as a principal means of intercity travel.In response to high energy costs, a continuingand perhaps accelerating trend toward small-er, lighter vehicles with improved technologyto reduce fuel consumption may occur.Coupled to this trend are uncertainties onfuture new car prices and sales levels — im-proved technology autos may be expensiveand there may be greater emphasis on long-lived vehicles. A number of potential impacts

on the auto industry could result from theseconditions, including impacts on manufac-turers (retooling), suppliers (new lightweightmaterials), and labor. There are also safetyconsiderations related to small autos operat-ing in the proximity of trucks and buses.

Intercity Bus Service is Attractive

Numerous positive impacts were cited forintercity buses. Energy efficiency is high,and the mode is capable of providing mobilityto most segments of society — particularlythe less-affluent. The incremental and flex-ible nature of bus service also makes itadaptable to a variety of possible future set-tings. Currently, there is need for betterintegration of bus services with those of otherintercity (and urban) modes. More attractiveand better located terminals are viewed as ameans of gaining broader public acceptanceof bus travel. Wider vehicles might also in-crease the appeal of bus service. Beyond theseservice, equipment, and facilities improve-ments, there may be more basic social reasonswhy travelers tend not to use intercity buses.

Air Service Is Likely To ImproveIncrementally

Conventional aircraft service is anticipatedto retain its role as the dominant public modefor longer-distance intercity travel. Theremay be less first-class service and more char-ter flights as the percentage of nonbusinesstravelers increases. Some participants believethat less economic regulation might lead tofewer but more profitable carriers; othersdisagree.

The infrastructure for air service is viewedas already in place to a large extent. Incre-mental improvements to aircraft are foreseenas a continuation of existing trends although

EXAMPLES OF IMPACTSIDENTIFIED BY THE PANELS

Improved Conventional Aircraft. To achievelighter-weight aircraft via epoxy/fibre com-posites will cause employment shifts. Epoxymakers benefit at the expense of aluminummakers.

Manufacture and use of composite materialsmay cause concerns about leakage into theenvironment in unexpected ways (e.g., sta-bility in ultraviolet light).

Inexpensive air service might encourage nuicleated cities within the range of a larger-hubcity, permitting more choice of diversity inlife-styles, but bringing the disbenefits ofnoise. With cheap flights, travelers who nowexhibit behavior problems on other modesmight shift to the air mode.

Tracked Levitated Vehicles. TLV might beused to channel land use development. Laboreffects of the TLV are important; TLV auto-mation might increase labor productivity, butother modes may be put out of work.

The energy consumption of TLV is compa-rable to aircraft, but TLV benefits by usingcentrally generated electricity. Pollution con-trol would be easier.

TLV may be opposed out of fear that it willbe noisy. The population along the right-of-way might oppose it because they fearaccidents.

sources of capital for fleet replacement needto be identified. For positive impact, the em-phasis in aircraft improvements should be toallow for increased operating efficiency andimproved environmental impacts (e.g., better

19

fuel consumption, less noise) rather thanhigher speeds. As composite materials areused to achieve lighter-weight aircraft, publicconcerns may arise about new compoundsbeing released into the environment in unex-pected ways.

The SST was one type of advanced air tech-nology considered. There is doubt that noise(sonic boom) and environmental obstacles(upper-atmosphere pollution) can be over-come during this century. Introduction ofthe SST would serve national and foreignpolicy interests, but establishing sources ofcapital for development and implementationwill be difficult.

Future of Rail Passenger Service Is Uncertain

Diverse views emerged at the Workshop onthe future prospects and impacts of intercityrail service. One view holds that the transpor-tation services provided by long-haul railcould be adequately handled by other modesand that a heavily subsidized mode shouldnot compete with profit-seeking companies.Others hold that the service is in transitionand has not yet had an opportunity to dem-onstrate its improved capabilities and attrac-tiveness to travelers. In short-haul, high-density travel markets, the prospects forimproved passenger train (IPT) service appeargood, although it was noted that public andpolitical pressures could expand the serviceto unprofitable markets. Extensive upgradingto track will be required to implement IPT,and studies are needed to determine theimpacts that fast passenger trains would haveon rail freight service.

In general, participants had misgivings aboutmore exotic forms of high-speed ground sys-tems such as tracked levitated vehicles (TLV).Their high capital cost and suitability foronly a limited number of very dense travel

MAJOR WORKSHOP THEMES

markets are viewed as the basis for severeinstitutional as well as economic problems.Also cited were difficulties in obtaining right-of-way because of noise and safety concerns,political resistance generated by advocates ofcompeting modes, and the need to overcomegovernment jurisdictional problems.

Are Electric Highways on the Horizon?

A set of advanced technologies that provokedmuch discussion are electric-powered auto-mobiles and electric-automated highways. Ingeneral, the prospects for these relatively un-defined technologies appear to depend onthe rate of development and eventual priceof nuclear power generation; battery-poweredautomobiles for intercity travel are not judgedlikely because of range limitations. A criticalunknown is the extent of overall (or petro-leum) energy savings, if any, afforded byelectric highways. Much discussion centeredon the means by which vehicles would receivepower from an electrified highway and un-certainties regarding the effects of such asystem — primarily, traffic safety and thepotentially harmful public health effects ofstrong electric and magnetic fields createdby the system. Start-up problems for electrichighways are envisioned. Potential userswould be reluctant to equip their vehicles ifavailable routes were limited; at the sametime, expansion of routes might depend ondemonstrated demand. Also, existing anti-trust laws might make necessary standardiza-tion of vehicles difficult. Several potentialimpacts that might occur with automatedhighways were identified, including the needfor and impacts of traveler entertainment enroute and the possibility of poor driver per-formance (e.g., speeding) upon leaving theautomated system and reverting to manualcontrol.

20

Access Can Be Improved

Many participants took the position thatimprovements in access and terminals canlead to substantially better intercity trans-portation service and would not require themassive capital {outlays associated with newline-haul technologies. Noted in this regardwere regulations in some locations that pro-hibit jitney services or service to airports byintercity busesJ The diversity of existingproblems among cities suggests that solutionsmight best be formulated on a case-by-casebasis. Integrated multimodal terminals arecited as a goal ;and a decision is needed onwhat level of government should take a leadrole in implementing the concept. One con-sumer viewpoint holds that there is a pressingneed for door-to-door public intercity ser-vice, to create mobility for that large segmentof the public which does not have access toan automobile, j

Travelers Need More Information on Avail-able Services ;

»

Better consumer information would enabletravelers to use {present and future intercitymodes more effectively. In trip planning, itis currently difficult to identify all availabletravel options (both line-haul and access/egress) in terms'of travel time and cost. Un-resolved is thej problem of providing fullinformation without creating such complex-ity as to defeat jthe purpose. Also uncertainis whether carriers or a government agencyshould develop and operate the informationsystem(s). i

Steps should also be taken to provide betterinformation to travelers while en route. Morecomplete and more standardized displays oftravel information are needed in air, bus, andrail terminals, i

MAJOR WORKSHOP THEMES

EXTRACT FROM ONE PANEL'SIMPACT ASSESSMENT

IMPACTS OF IMPROVED PASSENGERTRAINS (IPT) AND SUPERSONIC

AIRCRAFT (SST)

Relative Degree; of Impact

(Scale of -3 to +3)a

IPT SST

Secondary economiceffects 1.25 0.00

Pollution (noise, air,and other) 1.33 -2.33

Regional development 0.33 0.08

Personal mobility 1.08 0.67

Energy and resourceconsumption 1.33 -2.83

Life-style 0.50 0.42

Political roles andconflicts 0.92 -2.92

Technology supplysystem 2.08 -0.92

Costs, revenues, andsubsidies -0.58 -2.42

Labor 1.08 0.08

a. Positive numbers indicate favorable impacts;negative, unfavorable.

Labor Issues Must Be Considered

Comments about varying aspects of the"labor issue" arose repeatedly during theWorkshop. One basic concern relates to laborproductivity: changes in the work ethic maycause a decrease in future productivity. Thismight argue for increased automation oftransportation systems. On the other hand,it is suggested that technologies which arepurposely labor-intensive might be adoptedin order to create jobs. At a minimum, con-sideration should be given to retraining andemploying people in labor and managementwho are displaced when obsolete transporta-tion services are discontinued.

Government Roles Were Debated

Government roles in intercity transportationwere another recurring theme of discussion.Differing viewpoints on federal governmentinvolvement in basic research and technologydevelopment (R&T) were expressed at a spe-cial topic session. While the government has

a role in R&T, it is doubtful whether thisrole should extend to specific productdevelopment.

In the area of regulation, it was generallyacknowledged that government regulatoryagencies can be formidable barriers to someforms of technological innovation aimed atoperational efficiencies or service improve-ments. However, it was argued that deregula-tion (the prospects for which are uncertain)might also negatively impact the implementa-tion of new public transportation technolo:

gies. Extensive discussion took place on theprospects for government ownership of inter-city modes and resulting consequences. Here,a distinction was made between full national-ization, which might lead to inefficiencies,and national corporations operating to abudget. Few arguments in favor of national-ization surfaced, but it was generally agreedthat the prospect of capital scarcity increasesthe likelihood of government ownership forthe rail and air modes.

ANOTHER PANEL'S ASSESSMENT OF FACTORS AFFECTING IMPLEMENTATION

Technology

SST

TLV

Improved conven-tional aircraft (CTOL)

Improved auto

Significant Factors Enhancing Chancesof Implementation

Federal subsidiesNational and foreign policy interests

Good system interfacesTransport industry nationalizedFederal subsidies

Great increase in leisureNational and foreign policy interests

User attitudes and habits unchangedIncrease in leisureEnergy price increases

Significant Factors Reducing Chancesof Implementation

Restricted venture capitalIncrease in energy pricesGovernment policy contradictionsEquity more important than efficiency

Restricted venture capitalInstitutional inertiaContinued jurisdictional issues

Dramatic increase in discount rates

21

7IMPACTASSESSMENT

The impact assessment task described conse-quences that might occur if certain techno-logical developments take place in intercitytransportation. These consequences arebroad ranging, and include economic, envi-ronmental, social, institutional, energy-related, and transportation service impli-cations. The possible consequences weretraced through direct (primary) impacts toindirect (secondary, tertiary, etc.) impactsby fashioning chains of consequences.

The consequences that result are not predic-tions. The technological innovations con-sidered may or may not happen, and if theydo, the impacts described will not neces-sarily occur. The primary purpose of thisanalysis was to expand awareness of thepossible implications of technologies in orderto suggest further lines of inquiry on amelio-rating negative impacts and enhancing posi-tive impacts.

Some of the findings of the impact assess-ment are briefly illustrated here.

22

Identification of Impacts

The assessment of possible impacts of futureintercity transportation technologies wasundertaken through a systematic analysisapproached from several directions. Thesedirections are reflected in the followingquestions that were asked concerning the im-pacts of transportation developments.

• How does the impact affect the de-velopment and use of economic,natural! and human resources; thethe nature of the environment andsettlement patterns; the life-styles,values, and well-being of individuals;and the evolution and behavior ofpolitical, social, and economic insti-tutions?

• When does the impact occur in thelife cycle of the technology? Is itduring its invention, promotion, anddevelopment; its implementation; itsoperation; or its revision, replace-ment, or abandonment?

• How does the strength of the impactchange .with time?

• Under what political, economic, andsocial conditions and physical set-tings isand do

the impact felt most strongly,changes in background condi-

tions affect the nature of the im-pact? How might the impact changewith changes in the conditions andsetting in which it occurs?

• What are likely to be society's re-sponses'to the impact and how mightthese responses change the nature ofthe impact and give rise to additionalindirect impacts?

These questions were used to trace thechains of consequence associated with tech-nology development options.

Small CTOL Aircraft

Successful introduction of new small CTOLaircraft would tie expected to enhance theposition of small- and medium-size commu-nities in competing against the larger urbancenters for economic development. Themagnitude of such enhancement is relativelyminor, however, compared to other economicand political factors affecting business andpopulation decentralization, such as tax pol-icies, housing and social service policies, andenvironmental controls.

Major expansion and improvement of com-mercial air transportation in low-densitymarkets might be expected to reduce the uti-lization of personal and corporate generalaviation aircraft to some extent. The ten-dency to cause a major slowdown or even areversal of general aviation activity would beminimized under a strong economic growthscenario, in which the convenience, flexi-bility, and freedom offered by privatelyowned aircraft would be valued most highlyagainst their cost.

successful introductionof new small CTOL aircraft

some developmentof small andmedium-sizecommunities

performancedifferentfrom largeraircraft .

some activitylosses inmajor urbancenters

significantlyincreasedfeeder

/ operations

I reduced general\ aviation activity

pressure forseparatetrafficcontroltreatment

hetergeneousfleet

^ airportcapacityovertaxedat hubs

construction ofnew runways andairports (?) inmajor hub cities

Extensive feeder services provided by a newgeneration of small commercial aircraft couldhave a significant impact upon crowded hubairports where feeder and line-haul links join.Pressure could mount for separate treatmentin the air traffic control system of feederoperations, particularly if such aircraft havesignificantly different operating speeds andmaneuverability than the larger aircraft. Un-less separate runways can be provided, ex-panded feeder services could seriously taxexisting airport "airside" capacities. Althoughconstruction of new airports in major metro-politan areas would help, assuming financialand political feasibility, the distribution oftraffic among metropolitan airports is notlikely to be "rational" enough to completelysolve this problem.

Intercity Bus

Improved intercity bus service is a particularlyeffective means to provide increased mobilityand economic opportunity to the disadvan-taged. Bus systems provide essential links be-tween rural communities and various healthand social services; hence, their improvementwould be expected to encourage populationdispersal, particularly if employment oppor-tunities continue to move away from largecities.

Major near-term improvements in intercitybus transportation would likely be dependentupon regulatory agency willingness to loosenrestrictions on market entry/exit and service.Such willingness could encourage innovationssuch as more express service, better connec-tions with other intercity modes and withurban public transport, and introduction ofdifferent classes of service (e.g., widebodies).

labor unionresistance

separate highways forbuses and trucks (?)

increasedregulatory

flexibility

entry/exitand service

(serviceinnovation andexpansion, costreductions

1expandeddemand forbus travel

increasedtechnology *

development

new safety problems' due possiblyto automation andlarger vehicles

Articulated buses might be introduced toachieve some economies of scale by reducinglabor costs. Vigorous growth in intercity busservice might help to establish a suitably sizedvehicle fleet for early experimentation withautomated highways in a few densely traveledintercity corridors. If such experiments aresuccessful, a major opportunity would becreated for additional increases in bus laborproductivity, for example, using a highway-train of temporarily linked buses with a singledriver. Such innovations are not withoutproblems, of course, such as the possible re-sistance of organized labor, safety consider-ations (perhaps requiring separate rights-of-way for highway-trains of buses and trucks),and the need for suitably powerful (perhapsdetachable) propulsion systems to allow effi-cient tandem operation and to help amelio-rate potential noise impacts.

23

Improved Passenger Trains

Under a scenario of strong government in-volvement in intercity transportation, at-tempts to promote rail travel might lead topublic restrictions on short-haul air service incorridors where heavy public investment inrail provides good alternative service. In thissituation, some former air travelers wouldprobably switch to rail as their next best op-tion with others, perhaps the majority,switching to private automobiles. Demandson the air traffic control system and on air-port capacity would be reduced by these re-strictions. Travelers would suffer some lossof mobility, perhaps significant losses in cer-tain cases. Economic and population growthat intermediate stops along the improved railcorridor could be significant, further stimu-lating rail use throughout the corridor.

Expanded and improved intercity passengerrail service, operating at speeds up to 120 mphmight interfere with rail freight operations tothe detriment of both the rail freight industryand rail freight customers in affected corri-dors. Some departure of rail-dependent in-dustry from busy passenger rail corridorsmight result; or such industries might makegreater use of trucking, increasing traffic,maintenance, and environmental problemson corridor highways. Over the long term,the attraction of passenger rail for businesstravel up to about 250 miles would be ex-pected to increase the proportion of whitecollar workers that reside in and benefit fromthe improved passenger rail corridor. Thisrelocation effect would be greatest in sce-narios with high-density housing growth andhigh highway-travel costs.

public investmentin improvedpassenger rail

effective restrictionscompeti- _ on short haultion from air in railair corridors

less demandon airsystemcapacity

increaseddevelopmentof interme-diate corridorcities

ed

increased useof trucks

highwaycongestion,costs,pollution

reducedmobilityat corridortermini

somediversionto auto

increased passengerrail service

Iimpeded freightrail service

some loss ofindustry frompass, rail .corridors

migration ofwhite collarworkers topassengerrail corridors

Ibenefits accruelargely to whitecollar travelers

Lightweight Automobiles

Emphasis on energy efficiency may lead tolong-term efforts to reduce automobileweight, raising the need for suitable light-weight materials and components. If plasticsare used extensively, questions arise concern-ing: the pricepetrochemicals

stability and availability offor their manufacture, the

availability of methods for reducing old carsscrap, and the toxicity ofDy plastics during auto corn-scrapping and accidents. In-

to marketablefumes releasedbustion due tocreased safety problems may be anticipated incollisions of ligh't vehicles with the older heav-ier autos, and with trucks and buses. Thissuggests the possibility of separate highwaysfor light vehicles, which would be achieved,of course, only with large implementationcosts and significant environmental impacts.A possibly more economical alternative toseparate highways is the automation of exis-ting highways to increase safety and achieveother benefits, rllowever, the safety problemsthat could occur during the transition toauto-mation are themselves potentially seriousenough to warrant considerable attention.

need for energy-efficient autos

I

new materials

new methodsneeded for vehicledisposal scrapping

need to reducevehicle weights

. use of plastics

toxicity duringcombustion

separate highwaysfor differentvehicle types

24

unsafe mix ofheavy and lightvehicles \

automatedhighways

8RECOMMENDATIONS

One of the products desired of this study wasa set of recommendations on further researchand analysis tasks pertaining to the impactsof future intercity transportation technolo-gies. Reports of this study's tasks—Volumes2 through 6—contain many explicit and im-plicit recommendations of this kind. Thecontractor study team chose to highlight alimited number of recommendation topicsrather than compile an exhaustive list of themany possible additional study efforts thatare suggested in the project's documentation.

The selected recommendations on further re-search and analysis tasks are summarized inthis chapter and described more fully in Vol-ume 7.

In the judgment of the study team, the high-lighted recommendations relate to significantissues or impacts, with important implica-tions for the quality of future intercity trans-portation, and have high leverage, that is,they are believed to offer promising avenuesfor substantially improving intercity trans-portation. Many of the highlighted recom-mendations apply to the future supply of

intercity transportation services, categorizedby mode. Others pertain to broad issues inintercity transportation—e.g., finance, regu-lation, traveler values—that cut across modes.

In accordance with study guidance, the rec-ommendations describe what should be donebut generally do not identify who shouldsponsor and/or perform the work, except inthose instances where it is central to the rec-ommendation. Also, neither priorities forthe recommendations nor detailed workstatements were requested by the study'ssponsors.

Given the diversity of opinion uncoveredduring the study on, for example, what con-stitute desirable and undesirable features offuture intercity services, it is clear that thestudy team's selection of recommendationsrepresents only one of several "cuts" at theproblem. A sampling of other possible rec-ommendations on transportation researchand technology tasks is given in Volume 7.That volume also contains study team recom-mendations regarding the process of technol-ogy assessment.

25

INTERCITY AUTOMOBILETRANSPORTATION

Recommended Efforts

A greatly expanded program of research andtechnology development for propulsion sys-tems and vehicle design with the objective ofimproving fuel-efficient and nonpolluting al-ternatives to the present automobile. A keyto the expanded program is careful coordina-tion of publicly supported efforts and auto-mobile manufacturers' efforts. Public effortsshould emphasize high-risk research and mon-itoring the rate of technological improve-ments in energy efficiency in order to advisecontrol agencies when more exacting pollu-tion standards and fuel-economy standardsshould be applied.

A technology assessment focused specificallyon impending technological and institutionalchanges to the automobile. Immediateconcerns include the safety impacts ofchanging fleet size and performance mix, in-come redistribution effects of possiblechanges in the buying patterns of new carsversus old, and upcoming changes in vehiclesand their fueling methods to meet environ-mental standards. Longer-range concerns in-clude the impacts of alternate automobileengine technologies on the industry, labor,and the economy.

Rationale

Patronage analyses conducted in this studyindicate that the auto will continue to be thedominant mode of intercity travel in a varietyof possible settings to the year 2000. Thedominance of auto travel arises from a varietyof factors, including low perceived cost andgreat flexibility and convenience of servicerelative to public modes.

The auto-highway system constitutes both amajor "investment"—economic, institutional,and social—and a principal "leverage point"for effecting desirable changes in the impactsof intercity transportation.

TRANSPORTATION ENERGYCONSUMPTION BY MODE

Mode

Auto—IntercityAuto—UrbanAirBusRailTruckAll Other

Total

of Total TransportationConsumption

29.4%32.0

7.60.63.4

18.09.0

100.0%

COMPARATIVE ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Mode3Thousands of Btuper Passenger-Mile

Auto (full-sized)Bus (diesel)Rail (metrolinen)Air (DC-9 at 500 miles)

2.30.71.04.2

a. 60% load factor assumed for all modes.

Source: Volume 3

INTERCITY BUSES

Recommended Efforts

A program to identify and test means of im-proving intercity bus service. The programshould explore possible vehicle changes suchas wider buses. A series of case studies shouldexpand on existing research knowledge toimprove bus transportation, such as seekinginnovative ways to improve bus stations andto provide better integration of bus serviceswith those of other modes. In direct supportof these studies, an evaluation is needed ofpublic attitudes and user choice factors in-fluencing bus patronage.

26

A study to appraise the effects of federal andstate regulatory policies on bus operations.This effort should identify and evaluate im-pacts that would result from changes in pol-icies, and explore the economics of and fi-nancial mechanisms for increasing bus serviceto small towns and rural areas.

Rationale

To the extent that intercity bus service canbe improved to] attract increased ridership,there is potential for significant benefits.Foremost among these potentials are reducedenergy consumption for intercity travel andincreased mobility to residents of small townsand rural areas and others who travel on low-density routes.

AIRCRAFT AND AIR SERVICE

Recommended Efforts

Aircraft research and technology emphasizingdevelopments leading to reduced cost, fuelconsumption, and noise. Among these areimproved airfoils, composite materials (in-cluding demonstration of use of large com-posite structures), propulsion improvements,reduction of other (nonengine) sources ofnoise (i.e., aerodynamic noise), and activecontrols.

A study of mechanisms for introducing newaircraft technology into commercial use. Thestudy should include an appraisal of govern-ment financial, tax, and regulatory policiesto encourage more rapid implementation.For example, an assessment should be under-taken on the current program to developquiet aircraft engines. The study should eval-uate not only environmental impacts on anational scale but also the economic impacton engine manufacturers and financial con-straints that the airlines might face in at-tempting to acquire the technology on apriority basis.

Systems analyses of changes in aircraft sched-uling, routing, and operations. The aim ofthese studies should be to reduce costs andfuel consumption while maintaining accept-able service levels. A range of future aircraftsizes and technologies, as well as the impactof changes in industry regulations should beconsidered.

Expanded scope for ongoing STOL aircrafttechnology efforts to include short runwayaircraft (SRA) systems. The SRA systemswould use longer (3,000- to 5,000-foot) run-ways than STOL at existing or new satelliteairports. The availability of satellite airportsites—closer to larger population centers thanexisting major airports—requires investi-gation.

Rationale

Conventional air service is expected to con-tinue in the future as the dominant publicmode for long-distance travel. The obviousadvantage of air service relative to its majorcompetitor, the automobile, is speed of travel.Negative characteristics of present servicesinclude fares and energy consumption at thehigh end of the intercity transportation spec-trum and noise in the vicinity of airports.

Commercial aviation has had limited successin providing high-quality service at low costin short-haul markets with low travel densi-ties. Positive impacts on small communitiescould be expected as the result of economicbreakthroughs in the development costs andoperating costs of small (10- to 20-seat) air-craft or routing and scheduling innovationsfor larger aircraft.

The potential ground access savings of anSRA system would benefit air travelers inhigh density travel corridors. An SRA systemmight also relieve congestion at long-haulairports. Aircraft energy consumption andoperating costs decrease significantly as de-sign runway length is increased from 2,000to 5,000 feet. The future availability of eitherSTOL- or SRA-length runways at desirablesites is uncertain.

AIR PASSENGER FORECASTS(SCHEDULED ENPLANEMENTS)

400

300

5 200

100

AIRPORT AND AIR TRAFFICCONTROL CAPACITY

Recommended Efforts

A study to resolve uncertainties on featuresof future generations of the ATC system.This study should be based on a comprehen-sive review of the effectiveness and costs ofcomponents of the Upgraded Third Genera-tion Air Traffic Control (ATC) System.

A program of airport landside research,closely coordinated with ongoing airsidework. The objective of the program wouldbe to develop planning methodology andguidelines for airport landside improvements.Case studies of a number of representativeairports should be undertaken, evaluatingpassenger and baggage processing improve-ments, both in capacity and efficiency.

Rationale

In spite of a trend toward lower forecasts offuture air traffic growth, substantial increasesin passenger traffic and in aircraft operationsare still foreseen, thus creating the continuedneed for more airport and air traffic controlcapacity. Uncertainty exists on ATC improve-ments that should occur beyond those en-compassed by the Upgraded Third GenerationATC System.

While substantial research studies on alterna-tives for airfield improvements have beenconducted under FAA auspices, compara-tively little effort has been devoted to land-side research.

1960 1970 1980•2000

27

DCo 10

§8Q Iu zO -

XOrr

TRIP TIMES IN HIGH DENSITYTRAVEL CORRIDORS

I I

100 200 300 400

TRIP DISTANCE (One-Way Rail Miles)

500

Source: Volume 4 Scenario Analysis

RAIL (Fixed Guideway) SYSTEMS

Recommended Efforts

An analysis of the benefits and costs of exist-ing AMTRAK services. Data need to be ana-lyzed on a systemwide as well as route-by-route basis, in relation to other modes, toassist in decision-making on changes to theAMTRAK route structure and the desirabilityof continuing government subsidy.

Technology and systems evaluations of im-proved passenger train service. Efforts shouldfocus on ways to implement service as soonas practical on appropriate routes to capturepotential energy savings. Questions relatedto noise, safety, and interactions with freightservice need to be addressed in specific railcorridors.

Tracked levitated vehicle research studies toaddress currently perceived negative impactsof the technology. These concerns includehigh guideway construction costs, noise, andsafety. Vehicle and guideway technologystudies for TLV are of a high-risk nature butcomponent research should be undertakento understand and perhaps resolve systemsimpact problems.

Rationale

Although a final evaluation of AMTRAKcosts, performance, and patronage may bepremature because improvement programsare now under way, the question of continuedgovernment subsidies for passenger rail ser-vice is of major importance.

For travel corridors examined in this study(high-density markets of less than 500 miles),high-speed IPT rail service appears attractiveon the basis of several positive impacts. Door-to-door trip times and fares for IPT shouldcompare favorably with those for air servicewhile energy consumption is lower.

High-technology, tracked levitated vehiclesystems are now looked on with serious mis-givings of a financial, institutional, behavioral,and environmental nature. High investmentcost coupled with a very limited number ofpotential geographic applications raisesdoubts on political viability.

ELECTRIC/AUTOMATED HIGHWAYSii

Recommended Efforts

A technical study to identify and evaluateelectric/automated highway system options.The study should develop data on technicaland economic feasibility for alternative pro-pulsion and control subsystems, and on thepower generation and transmission implica-tions of widespread implementation. Devel-opment might be pursued to the stage ofsmall-scale "laboratory" demonstrations ofperformance, j

A systems study of electric/automated high-ways to explore options in detail, after re-quired technical data have been assembled.Considerations should include potential mar-kets for intercity and urban travel, alternativeimplementation) time frames, and energy andenvironmental ! impacts. Other importantquestions relate to traffic safety (particularlyduring implementation), system reliability,regional development implications, effectson private secto'r equipment and vehicle sup-pliers, and effects on other modes. Costs andbenefits should 'be identified for both poten-tial users and !nonusers of an automatedhighway system!

Rationale

Electric highways offer the possibility ofdramatic reductions in fossil fuel energyconsumption for intercity transportation tothe extent that nuclear or other nonfossilelectrical-generating capacity is available inthe future. j

l

While the technology may not be implemen-table during this century, it seems to passthe critical tests of political constituency,incrementalism, and significant private-sectorinvolvement. '

28

ACCESS/EGRESS AND INTERMODALTRANSFER

Recommended Effort

A continuing program of study and experi-mentation to improve access/egress and inter-modal transfer for all intercity modes. Theprogram should include study of inexpensivechanges to urban public transport servicesand vehicles to help meet intercity travelerrequirements, terminal design and locationoptions, and analysis of effective means todisseminate travel information. Reviews ofrecent studies of multimodal terminals shouldbe undertaken with a view of identifying themajor roadblocks to successful implementa-tion. For the most part, this program shouldbe case-specific (and conducted locally incooperation with state and local governments

and private operators), although a search forproblem commonalities among differenturban areas should be emphasized.

Rationale

Solutions to access/egress problems are elu-sive. Many organizations are engaged in theprovision and regulation of access/egress ser-vices and gaps in service or suboptimizationcan result. There appear to be few common-alities among access/egress and intermodaltransfer problems in different locations. Eachcase is heavily influenced by local history,geography, and settlement patterns, as wellas regulatory precedents.

To concentrate what would otherwise bediffuse access/egress trips in an urban areaand to facilitate intermodal transfer (e.g.,rail to bus), the multimodal terminal concepthas appeal.

ACCESS, EGRESS, AND TERMINAL TIMEAS A PERCENT OF DOOR-TO-DOOR

TRAVEL TIME3

Tr'P hDistance1

150300500

1,000

Bus and Rail

25%1564

Airc

75%655545

a. Approximate, based on Volume 4 scenarioanalysis.

b. Miles, one-way.c. Nonstop flights are assumed.

TRAVELER VALUES ANDPREFERENCES

Recommended Efforts

Studies to develop improved information onthe preferences of various types of intercitytravelers, encompassing all modes. Particularemphasis should be placed on the relativeimportance of perceived cost, travel time,comfort, and convenience as influences onchoice of mode for different travelers andtypes of trip. The project should include de-velopment of more comprehensive theoriesof choice and preference for travelers, sup-ported by a small number of carefully de-signed, in-depth interviews with intercitytravelers in selected categories. Choice modelsincluding variables, .such as those suggestedabove, should be postulated and calibratedto aid in intercity transportation planning.

A related study to investigate the feasibilityof an expanded and more detailed data baseon intercity travel volumes. For example,the feasibility of publishing origin-destinationtravel data for rail and bus modes should beinvestigated, and survey procedures for thedevelopment of automobile travel data on acontinuing basis should be developed.

Rationale

An improved and more quantitative under-standing of propensity to travel and travelerchoice among competing modes is essentialto support decisions regarding future intercitytransportation research, investments, andservice improvements. A starting point forthis advance in knowledge is a better under-standing of current traveler values and prefer-ences — more comprehensive and higher-quality data are needed.

29

REGULATORY CONTROLS INSTITUTIONAL IMPACTS

Recommended Effort

A study to develop and apply methods ofassessing possible regulatory changes andtheir impacts. Improved techniques areneeded to analyze the effects of alternativeeconomic, environmental, and safety regula-tions on levels of intercity service, transportindustry structure, and technology develop-ment and implementation. The objective ofthe effort should be to provide guidance onregulatory actions and R&T program priori-ties. The study should encompass all majormodes of intercity transportation for bothpassengers and freight.

Rationale

Regulation has played, and will continue toplay, an important role in both the develop-ment and control of transportation infrastruc-ture and in the organization and operationof firms providing transportation services.Future changes in regulation will act as abarrier or spur to such factors as technologi-cal innovation, the speed of implementingnew services, and the financial viability oftransportation systems.

While several alternative "regulatory futures"and possible effects have been identified inthis study, a most-likely or desirable path ofchange has not been identified.

Recommended Effort

A program to better identify and evaluateinstitutional forces that may affect the im-plementation and operation of new intercitytransportation technologies. A method isneeded (such as has been developed for pre-paration of environmental impact statements)for tracing the potential events that wouldhave to take place in the process of technol-ogy delivery, for identifying the institutionsinvolved and their roles, and for highlightingcritical institutional actions.

A detailed review should be undertaken ofinstitutional forces that have had major im-pact on past transport technology programs(e.g., the airport and airway developmentprogram, development of the AMTRAKsystem). Both the positive and negative insti-tutional forces should be identified andexamined. Also, the economic, social, andenvironmental conditions and forces that ex-isted over the time of planning and decision-making should be described and assessed todetermine how they affected decisions.

Currently proposed technology programsshould be appraised to identify institutionalforces that may influence their ultimate de-livery. Attention should be given to bothmajor "hardware'' innovations such as auto-mated control of automobiles and major"software" innovations such as ticketingfor door-to-dobr intercity common-carriertransportation.!

Rationale

Public and private institutions combine indifferent ways to establish the services pro-vided by intercity transportation systems,giving rise to institutional arrangements thatare resistant to change.

Institutional forces, rather than a lack ofnew technology options, may constrain theintroduction of [new intercity transportationsystems — especially those that would intro-duce major service changes.

30

ENERGY AND MATERIALSCONSIDERATIONS

Recommended Efforts

A program of research and technology de-velopment among modes to improve theenergy efficiency of all intercity transporta-tion vehicles. The potential results of currentfuel conservation programs should be evalu-ated with respect to environmental, econom-ic, and financial impacts. The possibility offederal actions to assist in speeding the im-plementation of fuel-efficient technologiesshould be investigated.

Continuing research on new materials fortransportation vehicles with increased con-sideration given to materials research forground transportation. Techniques for dis-posal and recycling of materials should be anintegral concern of these investigations.Research and technology development onimproving the economics of scrap-metal re-cycling are sufficiently important to warrantcontinued significant effort.

Rationale

National energy policy will provide significantimpetus to improve the fuel economy ofintercity transportation vehicles. In the un-likely event that ways are not found tosignificantly improve transportation fueleconomy, it will be difficult to introduce im-proved intercity services (i.e., higher speeds,more frequent service) that require moreenergy than is consumed at present.

Development of light but crashworthy high-way vehicles at reasonable cost would bestimulated by materials development; a vari-ety of aircraft efficiency and performanceimprovements are also dependent on light-weight composite materials. Important issuesrelated to future materials widely used intransportation vehicles are the methods ofdisposal of worn-out vehicles and the poten-tial for recycling scrap materials.

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RELATION TOTOTAL DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION

(1015 BTU FOR 1970)

Use

TransportationElectric Power GenerationAll Other Uses

Total

Basic Energy SourcePetroleum All Other3

162

12

30

1329

42

Total

161541

72

a. Natural gas, coal, hydroelectric, nuclear.

31

TRANSPORTATION FINANCE

Recommended Effort

A comprehensive study of funding require-ments and sources for intercity transporta-tion. The objective of the study would be toquantify short- and long-term financingproblems in intercity transportation and toidentify and evaluate funding mechanisms.The study should consider (!) public andprivate sources of funds and (2) transporta-tion capital and operating/maintenance fund-ing requirements. The evaluation of fundingmechanisms should emphasize those that ac-commodate technology substitution, such asa combined transportation fund, and thosethat use public funds to stimulate privateinvestment.

Rationale

Funding constraints will pose increasinglysevere problems that must be solved beforemajor improvements in intercity transpor-tation systems can be made.

Recently, a number of studies have projectedserious deficiencies in the overall supply ofcapital over the next 5 to 25 years. Private-sector investment in major intercity transpor-tation system improvements is particularlyvulnerable to a capital shortage because ofhigh investment levels needed to maintainexisting services.

To the extent that private venture capitalis scarce, demands for government involve-ment in the financing of intercity transpor-tation will increase. Public programs may berequired to strike a balance not only acrossthe majority of political subdivisions, as inthe past, but also across influential interestgroups defined along social or economic lines(the poor, aged, environmentalists, etc.).Legislation drawn along modal lines, such ashighway, air, rail, or urban public transitprograms, seems increasingly unable to meetthese required distributional conditions.

STUDY PARTICIPANTSGeneral Frank BessonU.S. Army, Retired

Mr. Robert K. BestCalifornia Department of Transportation

Mr. Richard E. BlackDouglas Aircraft Company

Mr. George BroderickOffice of Program and Policy PlanningFederal Highway Administration

Dr. Leon M. ColeCongressional Research ServiceLibrary of Congress

Mr. Larry H. DayBell Canada

Dr. John J. FearnsidesOffice of R&D PolicyU.S. Department of Transportation

Mr. James C. GoodridgeBond DepartmentConnecticut General Life Insurance Company

Ms. Juanita GreeneThe Miami HeraldOffice of Consumer AffairsU.S. Department of Transportation

Mr. Lawrence P. GreeneOffice of R&D Plans and ResourcesU.S. Department of Transportation

Mr. Edwin T. HaefeleUniversity of Pennsylvania

Dr. Gregory T. HauganOffice of Northeast Corridor DevelopmentFederal Railroad Administration

Dr. Anne R. HeadleyOffice of Conservation and EnvironmentFederal Energy Administration

Dr. Walter J. HesseAdvanced Transportation Systems DivisionRohr Industries, Inc.

Mr. F.Jerome HinkleOffice of ConservationEnergy R&D Administration

Professor George HoffmanUniversity of Southern California

Dr. Norman HummonEnvironmental Systems EngineeringUniversity of Pittsburgh

Dr. Fred H. KantGovernment Research LaboratoriesExxon Research & Engineering Company

Mr. Harry A. KimbrielAlliance One Institutional Investors

Professor Melvin KranzbergGeorgia Institute of Technology

Mr. Leonard Lee LanePublic Interest Economics Center

Dr. Edward MargolinAmerican University

Dr. Daniel P. MaxfieldOffice of Transportation Planning AnalysisU.S. Department of Transportation

Mr. Milton MeisnerOffice of Aviation PolicyFederal Aviation Administration

Professor James R. NelsonAmherst College

Mr. Thomas O'BrienFederal Aviation Administration

Professor Charles OverbyOhio University

Dr. Wilfred OwenThe Brookings Institution

Mr. Roy PulsiferCivil Aeronautics Board

i

Dr. Harold E. RolandSafety CenterUniversity of Southern California

Mr. Robert W. RummelTrans World Airlines, Inc.

Mr. Joseph J. SchmidtAMTRAK

Mr. Gerardus J.;SchottBoeing Commercial Airplane Company

Mr. William SpreitzerResearch LaboratoriesGeneral Motors [Corporation

Mr. J.G. Stieber,Greyhound Lines, Inc.

Mr. Clarence A. SyvertsonDeputy DirectorNASA Ames Research Center

iMr. Anthony C.| TaylorScience ConsultantCommittee on Science and TechnologyU.S. House of Representatives

jMr. Grant ThompsonEnvironmental Law Institute

lMr. George WickstromMetropolitan WashingtonCouncil of Governments

Mr. Lev Zetlin jLev Zetlin & Associates (Architects)

32

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT TEAM MEMBERS

Government

Alfred C. Mascy (Project Director)Richard D. WoodPlanning & Analysis OfficeNASA-Ames Research Center

Robert H. RollinsStudy, Analysis & Planning OfficeNASA-Headquarters

Brooks BartholowOff ice of R&D PolicyDOT-Office ojf the Secretary

William SpaethOffice of Systems Research & AnalysisDOT-Transportation Research Center

Industry

Dan G. Haney (Contractor Study Manager)Richard HallPeat, Marwick, Mitchell &.Co.

Aaron J. GellmanRobert WhorfGellman Research Associates

Frank ChiltonScience Applications, Inc.

University

Robert HoronjeffWilliam GarrisonEdward SullivanInstitute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of California, Berkeley

Richard S. ShevellTransportation Research ProgramStanford University

Oversight Committee

J. Lloyd Jones, ChiefPlanning & Analysis OfficeNASA-Ames Research Center

Gerald G. Kayten, DirectorStudy, Analysis & Planning OfficeNASA-Headquarters

Jerry D. Ward, DirectorOff ice of R&D PolicyDOT-Off ice of the Secretary

Frank L. Hassler, DirectorOffice of Systems Research & AnalysisDOT-Transportation Systems Center

rBORROWERSNAME & MAIL STOP

DATE