volume 1 - main report final.doc

8/14/2019 Volume 1 - Main Report Final.doc

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GCC Railway Feasibility Study Draft Final ReportAugust 2008 Volume 1 !ain Report

VOLUME 1VOLUME 1

MAIN REPORTMAIN REPORT

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................1

TABLE OF ACRONYMS.............................................................................9

CURRENCY.................................................................................................9

1. INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................10

1-1 .AC*GR/%D----------------------------------------------------------------------------10

1-2 #RA%S/R# A##(R%S &% GCC C/%#R&(S -----------------------10

1- FR(&G3# #RA%S/R# --------------------------------------------------------------12

1-4 ASS(%G(R #RA%S/R#--------------------------------------------------------12

2. THE PROPOSAL....................................................................................13

2-1 R/#(-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1

2-2 D(SCR&/% /F /#&/%S F/R .A3RA&%-----------------------------14

3. FREIGHT................................................................................................15

-1 #RAFF&C F/R(CAS# !(#3/D/'/G"-------------------------------------15

-2 FR(&G3# !AR*(#----------------------------------------------------------------------16

- F/R(CAS# RA&' !AR*(#---------------------------------------------------------17

-4 #RA&% /(RA#&/%--------------------------------------------------------------------- 21

4. PASSENGER SERVICES....................................................................... 23

4-1 #RAFF&C F/R(CAS# !(#3/D/'/G"-------------------------------------2

4-2 S(RV&C( ASS!#&/%S-----------------------------------------------------------26

4- F/R(CAS# #RAFF&C------------------------------------------------------------------28

4-4 /(RA#&/%--------------------------------------------------------------------------------1

5. TRACK SIGNALING AND TELECOMUNICATIONS.............................34

5-1 (S#&!A#&%G #RAC* CAAC" -----------------------------------------------4

5-2 #RA&% C/%#R/'------------------------------------------------------------------------5

5- #('(C/!%&CA#&/%S--------------------------------------------------------------6

!. COST ESTIMATION...............................................................................3"

6-1 /V(RV&(----------------------------------------------------------------------------------7

6-2 /(RA#&%G (9(%DR(S----------------------------------------------------7

6- CAA' C/S#S-------------------------------------------------------------------------40

". ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS.............................................42

7-1 !(#3/D--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------42

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7-2 F&%A%C&A' !/D('---------------------------------------------------------------------4

7- (C/%/!&C !/D('--------------------------------------------------------------------47

7-4 CA'C'A#&/% /F .(%(FS----------------------------------------------------48

#. ORGANI$ATION OF THE RAIL%AY.....................................................52

8-1 &%FRAS#RC#R(---------------------------------------------------------------------52

8-2 /(RA#&/%S------------------------------------------------------------------------------54

9. POLICY AND REGULATORY ISSUES..................................................55

:-1 F&%A%C&A' /.;(C#&V(--------------------------------------------------------------55

:-2 (9C'S&V"------------------------------------------------------------------------------56

:- /'&C" /% ACC(SS #/ %A#&/%A' &%FRAS#RC#R(--------56

:-4 C/%S#RC#&/% /F !&SS&%G '&%*S---------------------------------------57

:-5 CS#/!S A%D &!!&GRA#&/% R/C(DR(S------------------------57

:-6 RA&'A" SAF(#" A%D (C/%/!&C R(G'A#&/%-----------------58

10. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN AND CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE.........59

10-1 /V(RV&(--------------------------------------------------------------------------------5:

10-2 AC#&/%S R(


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TABLES

PAGE

TABLE 1.1 & GDP AND POPULATION OF GCC COUNTRIES 2001&2025.11

TABLE 1.2 & FORECAST GDP AND POPULATION OF GCC COUNTRIES2010&2025..............................................................................................11

TABLE 1.3 & ANNUAL CAR AND AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN GCCCOUNTRIES 200!&2025 'MILLIONS(....................................................12

TABLE 3.4 & IMPORTS BY GCC AND OTHER ARAB LEAGUECOUNTRIES 'MILLION TONNES..........................................................1!

TABLE 3.5 & AVERAGE VS FORECAST FREIGHT TONNAGE.................1#

TABLE 3.! & BAHRAIN OPTIONS &IMPORTS............................................1#

TABLE 3." & BAHRAIN OPTIONS &EXPORTS..........................................1#

TABLE 3.# ) SUMMARY TABLE ) LO% OPTION.....................................19

TABLE 3.9 ) SUMMARY TABLE ) HIGH OPTION.....................................19

TABLE 3.10 & REVENUES IN US *'000( FOR YEAR 201!& LO%SCENARIO ...........................................................................................20

TABLE 3.11 & REVENUES IN US *'000( FOR YEAR 201!& MEDIUMSCENARIO............................................................................................20

TABLE 3.12 & REVENUES IN US *'000( FOR YEAR 201!& HIGHSCENARIO............................................................................................20

TABLE 3.13 & FREIGHT TRAIN KILOMETRES AND ROLLING STOCK202#....................................................................................................... 23

TABLE 4.14 & INTER&GCC COUNTRY PASSENGER TRIPS '000(............24

TABLE 4.15 & GDP GRO%TH RATE..........................................................25

TABLE 4.1! & MAIN INPUT DATA AND PARAMETERS............................25

TABLE 4.1" & COMPARISON OF SPEED OPTIONS * MILLION...............2"

TABLE 4.1# & PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN 201! PER MODE 'THOUSANDPASSENGERS(.....................................................................................2#

TABLE 4.19 & SITUATIONS IN 201! AND 202#.........................................31

TABLE 4.20 & OVERVIE% OF THE PASSENGER TRAIN SERVICE.........33

TABLE 4.21 & NUMBER OF DIAGRAMMED UNITS...................................33

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TABLE 5.22 & DAILY FORECAST NUMBER OF TRAINS PER SECTION 34

TABLE !.23 & PARAMETERS USED FOR FREIGHT OPERATING COSTS............................................................................................................... 3"

TABLE !.24 & PARAMETERS USED FOR PASSENGER OPERATINGCOSTS...................................................................................................3#

TABLE !.25 & PARAMETERS USED FOR OTHER COSTS.......................39

TABLE !.2! & ROLLING STOCK PRICES..................................................40

TABLE !.2" & MAIN UNIT RATES..............................................................40

TABLE !.2# ) TOTAL CAPITAL COSTS....................................................42

TABLE ".29 & PASSENGER AND FREIGHT SERVICES...........................45

TABLE ".30 & INDICATIVE ROC FINANCING PLAN..................................4!

TABLE ".31 & INDICATIVE FINANCIAL RETURN RATIOS FOR THE ROC............................................................................................................... 4!

TABLE ".32 & 200# FUEL PRICES IN US CENTS PER LITRE...................4#

TABLE ".33 CASH FLO%S AND RESULTS ) BI OPTION ) INTHOUSANDS OF US*...........................................................................50

TABLE ".34 & CASH FLO%S AND RESULTS ) B+ OPTION ) IN

THOUSANDS OF US*...........................................................................51

TABLE ".35 & CASH FLO%S AND RESULTS ) BR OPTION ) INTHOUSANDS OF US*...........................................................................51

TABLE ".3! & CASH FLO%S AND RESULTS ) BR,B+ OPTION ) INTHOUSANDS OF US*...........................................................................51

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FIGURES

AG(

FIGURE 2.1 & REGIONAL RAIL NET%ORKS EXISTING AND PLANNED............................................................................................................... 14

FIGURE 2.2 & OPTIONS FOR SERVING BAHRAIN....................................15

FIGURE 3.3 ) DAILY FREIGHT PATHS PER SECTION OF LINE.............22

FIGURE 4.4 & ANNUAL TRAFFIC '000( T%O DIRECTIONS IN BIALIGNMENT '201!(...............................................................................29

FIGURE 4.5 & ANNUAL TRAFFIC '000( T%O DIRECTIONS IN BR

ALIGNMENT ' 201!(..............................................................................29

FIGURE 4.! & ANNUAL TRAFFIC '000( T%O DIRECTIONS IN B+ALIGNMENT '201!(...............................................................................30

FIGURE 4." & ANNUAL TRAFFIC '000( T%O DIRECTIONS IN BR,B+ALIGNMENT '201!(...............................................................................30

FIGURE ".# & STUDY TASKS AND DATA FLO%S....................................43

FIGURE ".9 & LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE FINANCIAL MODEL........44

FIGURE ".10 ) STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMIC MODEL ....................4"

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

#>e Gulf region is growing rapidly- Areas t>at were desert 20 years ago are now =ibrant

modern ?ommunities- #>e population of t>e region ?ontinues to grow apa?e as

international ?ompanies lo?ate offi?es in t>e Gulf States and ser=i?e industries de=elop

in response to new opportunities- Along wit> t>is growt> in buildings and population

t>ere >as been a dramati? in?rease in t>e demand for transport and for t>e

infrastru?ture and fa?ilities needed to support it @ roads ports airports- &t is now

be?oming apparent t>at t>e growt> in metropolitan tra=el demand ?annot be met by

roads alone- !etro systems are planned or under ?onstru?tion in Abu D>abi Dubai and

elsew>ere- !eanw>ile new )primarily, freig>t railways are under ?onstru?tion in t>e

*ingdom of Saudi Arabia )*SA, )%ort> Sout> Railway 'andbridge,- #>ese initiati=es

are addressing needs from a lo?al and national perspe?ti=e- #>e realiBation t>at aregion@wide initiati=e was also reuired led )in 1:::, to t>e de=elopment of a plan for an

&ntegrated #ransport System in t>e Arab !as>reE )SA!, under t>e auspi?es of t>e

% (?onomi? and So?ial Commission for estern Asia )(SCA,- #>e (SCA rail

?orridor designated under SA! formed t>e starting point for a feasibility study for a

railway to lin t>e GCC ?ountries running from *uwait City to !us?at )t>e GCC

railway,- #>is paper summariBes t>e main issues addressed and t>e proposals arising

out of t>e feasibility study-

%-/ / 678

Round t>e world some railways are primarily or e?lusi=ely passenger ?arriers ot>ers

?arry only freig>t- !ost are multi@purpose or >a=e been at some stage- #>is line will

initially ?arry passengers and freig>tH t>e >ig> ?ost of building t>e basi? infrastru?ture

means t>at t>e railway will need to attra?t all t>e traffi? it ?an- Sometime in t>e future

spe?ialist lines may be reuired and Iustified passenger@only lines are already

proposed or under ?onstru?tion in some parts of t>e region-

For t>e passenger business we are proposing trains designed for a maimum speed of

220 m$>r- #>atJs around t>e maimum t>at ?urrent te?>nology ?an rea?> using

purpose built diesel train sets- #>e GCC trainsets are liely to ?onsist of up to ten

?arriages wit> diesel power units at ea?> end- e also looed at 160 m$> @ about as

fast as you ?an go wit> standard diesel lo?omoti=es >auling a ?arriage train and 50

m$> w>i?> is t>e leading edge for ele?tri? >auled trainsets- >en you mo=e from one

te?>nology to t>e net >ig>er step t>e ?osts go up signifi?antlyH if you tae t>e step t>e

best returns ?ome if you eploit t>e maimum speed t>at te?>nology ?an pro=ide- #>atJs

w>y we didnJt ?onsider intermediate speeds- 50 m$> would reuire ele?tri? tra?tion

and a dedi?ated passenger line- e ?anJt Iustify t>at wit> t>e liely initial patronage but

in t>e future it is possible- #>e line will be built to allow future ele?trifi?ation and >ig>er

speeds-

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#o ?ompete in a maret wit> ready a??ess to automobiles and rapidly epanding air

ser=i?es speed will not be enoug>- #>e proposed trains assume a >ig> standard

tra=elling en=ironment wit> first business tourist and family ?ars )t>e ratio between

t>ese will reuire furt>er maret resear?> but ?an in any ?ase ?>ange o=er time in

response to demand,- /n train dining will ?ontribute to t>e rail eperien?e- assengerswill >a=e full a??ess to internet and mobile p>one ser=i?es- A train able to ?arry

passengersJ ?ars >as not been spe?ifi?ally in?luded but ?ould run from &nter?>ange

station in *SA )w>ere t>e GCC railway ?rosses t>e Riyad> Dammam line ?on=enient

for motorists from *uwait $Riyad> and !amana, to and from !us?at- /perating at

nig>t it would run at t>e same speed as epress freig>t ser=i?es-

GCC is mo=ing towards full ?ustoms integration but t>ere is liely to be a ?ontinuing

need for border ?ontrols for some time- e >a=e planned t>e ser=i?es on t>e

assumption t>at some border ?>e?s will be ne?essary- &deally t>ese would be

undertaen on t>e train as used to be t>e ?ase in (urope- .y pro?essing passengerson t>e train t>e delays asso?iated wit> ?rossing borders would be minimiBed- #>is is

te?>ni?ally feasible but may present se?urity issues- e >a=e assumed t>at immigration

fa?ilities will be reuired at origin and destination stations but t>at w>ere possible pre@

?learan?e will be pro=ided on t>e train )eg for GCC nationals,- All luggage would be

subIe?t to inspe?tion at t>e arri=al station using t>e standard green lane$red lane

approa?> wit> random inspe?tion-

%- 6 : /8

e >a=e been deliberately ?onser=ati=e in our passenger estimates as t>ere is little>istory or eperien?e of rail tra=el in t>e region- Fore?asts for t>e total demand for tra=el

were de=eloped from information pro=ided by airport aut>orities for airline tra=el

?ustoms aut>orities for automobile and from t>e timetables of s?>eduled bus ser=i?es-

>ere national planning data were a=ailable t>is was used as appropriate- #>e

proportion of air auto and bus passengers w>o will swit?> to rail will depend on t>e

relati=e fare tra=el time and freuen?yH t>ese fa?tors are in?orporated into t>e

passenger model- &t will also depend on fa?tors su?> as ease of a??ess tra=el ?omfort

probability of delay et? t>at are >arder to uantify and psy?>ologi?al fa?tors relating to

>ow t>e railway is per?ei=ed- #>e models in?lude a mode spe?ifi? fa?tor t>at

en?apsulates t>ese more ualitati=e fa?tors-

e epe?t t>e demand for ser=i?es to build slowly- #>e su??ess of t>e railway depends

on persuading t>e first time user to return- &nitially ser=i?es will be about e=ery two

>ours between *uwait City and !us?at wit> additional trains between !anama Do>a

and Dubai gi=ing an approimately >ourly ser=i?e between Salwa and Dubai- e

propose t>at w>en t>e initial order for rolling sto? is pla?ed t>e number of units in

ser=i?e s>ould build o=er a two or t>ree@year period- #>e ?ontra?t s>ould ne=ert>eless

>a=e pro=ision for in?reasing t>e number of sets s>ould demand build faster- &f

passenger demand in?reases as epe?ted GCC rail will be operating >alf >ourly

ser=i?es between Salwa and Dubai by 2028-



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#>e line >as been designed to ?arry a full range of freig>t ser=i?esH >ea=y >aul ser=i?es

?arrying aggregates and limestone from t>e mountains in t>e nort> of t>e nited Arab

(mirates )A(, t>roug> to epress ?ontainer ser=i?es wit> >ig>@=alue imports and

manufa?tured goods- #>e >ea=y trains will run at nig>t w>en ?apa?ity is a=ailable but

some epress freig>t trains will run during t>e day integrated into t>e passengertimetable- Freig>t fore?asts were de=eloped using offi?ial import eport statisti?s from

ea?> ?ountry- #raffi?s for w>i?> rail >as t>e potential to ?ompete were identified and a

matri of potential flows establis>ed- #>is was dis?ussed wit> port aut>orities transport

and ?ustoms offi?ials and sele?ted s>ippers- >ere ot>er rail studies >ad been

undertaen t>ese were re=iewed and ?ompared-

#>e traffi? fore?asts >a=e fo?used on t>e initial years of operation- Growt> in t>e region

is >ig> so proIe?tions of traffi? into t>e future ?an result in estimates t>at are =ery large-

&t also means t>at a small differen?e in t>e assumed base traffi? ?an result in large )and

epensi=e, differen?es in t>e assumed euipment and infrastru?ture reuirements intwenty years time- &n t>is regard future fore?asts for rail traffi? are mu?> less ?ertain

t>an )for eample, for future air tra=el w>ere at least t>e base is nown- #>us w>ile

normally t>e re?ommended strategy is to build in anti?ipation of future growt> t>e

prudent approa?> for t>is in=estment would be to plan for t>e epe?ted initial traffi? but

wit> a ?learly defined growt> pat> to a??ommodate in?reasing demand-

&nitial freuen?ies )passenger plus freig>t, are generally ?onsistent wit> a single tra?

railway- Some double tra? will be reuired wit>in t>e first ten years if all t>e potential

traffi? ?an be attra?ted and ?urrent growt> in t>e region ?ontinues- #>e line s>ould be

designed for double tra? from t>e beginning and be able to be progressi=ely upgradedin response to demand wit>out affe?ting eisting ser=i?es- #>e ?ost of pro=iding for

future growt> is in?luded in our estimates- As dis?ussed later in t>is report national

railway de=elopments may in any ?ase di?tate t>at double tra? is ne?essary- Double

tra? is proposed in t>e A( )w>ere t>e GCC railway follows t>e A( alignment, to

>andle nationally identified traffi? and may also be reuired elsew>ere-

%-/ /-: ;;:< =>?:>/8

#>e Kbase ?aseJ for de=eloping t>e alignment was t>e (SCA ?orridor- #>is was

>owe=er little more t>an a ?on?ept t>e final alignment >as been de=eloped taing intoa??ount t>e geograp>y and geology of t>e area t>e need to ser=e population and

freig>t generation ?enters w>ile minimiBing t>e impa?t on t>e natural and built

en=ironment and national plans and eisting designations- #>e final route was sele?ted

in ?lose ?ooperation wit> t>e rele=ant aut>orities in ea?> State- %e=ert>eless it must be

stressed t>at t>is is only t>e feasibility study- e >a=e identified an alignment t>at is

appropriate for t>e purposes of establis>ing t>e engineering feasibility t>e potential

re=enue and t>e liely ?apital and operating ?osts of t>e railway- e >a=e assumed t>is

alignment w>i?> >as been endorsed by !ember States w>en estimating t>e liely

finan?ial and e?onomi? returns- .ut t>e alignment will be re=isited during detailed

design- At t>at time progress in t>e establis>ment of t>e national railways may pro=idenew opportunities to impro=e its ?ost effe?ti=eness-

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For t>e *ingdom of .a>rain four options were ?onsidered- #>e base ?ase is t>e

eisting situation under w>i?> traffi? to and from .a>rain would use t>e eisting

?auseway tra=elling by road and Ioining t>e GCC railway at &nter?>ange station-

/ptions in?lude a rail ?auseway to *SA paralleling t>e road a new road$rail ?auseway

to t>e State of - A memorandum of understanding to build t>e .a>rain@as been signed wit> t>e planned lin to in?lude >ig> speed rail- #>is

option wit> t>e rail lin ?onne?ting to t>e GCC line in t>e State of t >as been assumed in t>e analysis- (tending t>e rail ser=i?e

t>roug> !anama and o=er a new rail ?auseway to e=entually re@?onne?t in *SA was

?onsidered but t>e additional benefits are relati=ely low w>ile t>e en=ironmental issues

wit>in !anama are signifi?ant- #>e industrial areas to be ser=ed by freig>t trains are

lo?ated ?lose to t>e end of t>e .a>rain@ere will be o=er 2000 m of tra? wit> 5 bridges :m of =iadu?ts and

1:m of tunnels and tren?>es- #>e initial operation will reuire 20 passenger trainsets100 freig>t lo?omoti=es and 8000 wagons- #>e initial ?apital ?ost is some L10-2 billion-

H6 6 / / 6/- /-: 67 ;;8

#>ere are many railway proposals in t>e region at =arying degrees of preparedness-

#>e GCC railway will integrate wit> t>e national railways feeding traffi? to and from

lo?al lines- &n some pla?es it will s>are t>e tra?- #>is is t>e plan in *SA w>ere GCC

ser=i?es will use t>e %ort> Sout> Railway and 'andbridge tra?s between Ras AB Mawr

and t>e Iun?tion wit> t>e Riyad> Dammam line- #>ese lines >a=e been in?orporated in

t>e GCC plans as t>e alignment >as been finaliBed and bids for ?onstru?tion are beinglet- &n nited Arab (mirates and t>e Sultanate of /man t>e GCC line follows t>e

proposed national rail alignments- &f t>ose national railways pro?eed as planned t>ere

too t>e GCC ser=i?es will use t>e lo?al operatorJs tra?s- &n Abu D>abi GCC

passenger ser=i?es may be able to rea?> t>e ?ity ?entre on t>e lo?al networ w>ile

freig>t ser=i?es will be on t>e GCC$A( alignment furt>er sout> a=oiding disturban?e to

residential areas- For Dubai a station at t>e new international airport is planned wit>

metro lins to downtown-

#>e States of *uwait and a=e planned international rail lins- #>ese will be part

of t>e GCC railway @t>ey may also ?arry some lo?al traffi?- 'o?al ?onne?tions will beneeded to lin t>e GCC railway to traffi? generators in ea?> State- &n all States lo?al

lines will be built and operated as part of t>e lo?al networsH ?onne?tion to t>em is

?riti?al for t>e GCC line to rea?> its potential-

%- 6 > /8

Running a railway in t>e Gulf will not be easy- Competition from road transport will be

fier?e- RoadJs fuel ?osts are low and its infrastru?ture is pro=ided wit>out ?>arge-

S>ipping is also well pla?ed to ?ompete for freig>t traffi? wit> most de=elopment in t>e

region along t>e ?oast- A signifi?ant proportion of railJs target traffi? ?urrently goes bysea and will not be won easily- &n su?> a >ars> ?ompetiti=e en=ironment t>e rail



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operator needs ?ontrol o=er >is operating and ?ommer?ial en=ironment- e propose a

single rail operator for t>e Kabo=e railJ part of t>e operation >andling ?ustomers and

running t>e trains for all regional traffi?- #>e alternati=e of Kopen a??essJ allowing any

rail operator to run on t>e ?ommon tra? is normally proposed w>ere rail is per?ei=ed

as >a=ing some monopoly power- /pen a??ess t>en allows ?ompetition wit>in t>e railmaret- e donJt t>in t>is will be ne?essary or desirable in t>e GCC- e propose t>at

only one designated rail operator will >a=e t>e rig>t to pro=ide regional ser=i?es- #>e

tra? will ne=ert>eless be s>ared wit> national operators- &ndeed agreements will be

needed for interoperability between t>e regional and national operators-

#>e infrastru?ture )Jbelow railJ, is different- #rue t>ere are in t>eory ad=antages if t>is

too is part of t>e one ?ompany- 3owe=er t>e benefits are relati=ely small and may be

a?>ie=ed t>roug> negotiation- #>e more liely s?enario is t>at ea?> ?ountry will >a=e its

own infrastru?ture ?ompany t>at pro=ides tra? a??ess to one )or more, national

?ompanies and t>e GCC railway- #>is is generally w>at we >a=e assumed- For ?ostingpurposes we >a=e assumed t>at signaling and tele?ommuni?ations are pro=ided for all

t>e GCC line from two ?ontrol ?enters sin?e t>e s>ape of t>e lo?al networs is not yet

?lear- &f t>ere are a?ti=e lo?al networs t>ese will >a=e t>eir own ?ontrol ?enters and

t>ese are liely to be used instead- #>e main issue is not >ow t>ese systems are

managed but ensuring t>at ?ompatible systems are implemented to allow t>roug>

running of trains- #>e new (uropean train ?ontrol system for >ig> speed lines )(#CS

'e=el 2, is proposedt>e same as %ort> Sout> Railway- &t >as no tra?side signals-

% / @: >>7 @:8

#>e GCC railway will not be a finan?ially =iable entity on day one- #>e o=erall finan?ial

rate of return of t>e proIe?t is only 5-1 per?ent- #>e freig>t and passenger operating

di=isions are epe?ted to be =iable maing it possible for t>ese to be operated as a

?ommer?ial ?on?ern but t>eir ?ontribution will be insuffi?ient to pay a return on t>e large

infrastru?ture in=estment needed to mae t>em possible- A ?ommer?ial infrastru?ture

?ompany is t>erefore unliely- #>e a?tual finan?ial out?ome depends on t>e etent to

w>i?> t>e railway will be able to use t>e planned national tra?s- e >a=e done t>e

?al?ulations assuming t>e railway will need to ?ontribute t>e ?ost of one tra? t>roug>@

out t>e member ?ountries- &f national networs are de=eloped as planned mu?> of t>is

?ost may be s>ared-

#>e reason for t>e low return is simple- As noted abo=e t>e pri?e of fuel in GCC

?ountries is amongst t>e lowest in t>e world and users do not pay anyt>ing for t>e road-

Rail ?annot ?ompete unless rail infrastru?ture is on similar terms- ;ust as t>e States do

not epe?t a finan?ial return on roads t>ey ?annot epe?t a finan?ial return on rail

infrastru?ture- #>is does not mean rail infrastru?ture ?annot be pro=ided by pri=ate

industry t>roug> a ./# s?>eme or ot>erwiseIust t>at re=enue from t>e rail operator will

need to be supplemented t>roug> eit>er inIe?tion of ?apital or operating subsidies-



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% / @: :>?7 /:ere will be an e?onomi? return @ Iust as t>ere is from building roads- #>e GCC railway

>as a proIe?ted e?onomi? rate of return of Iust o=er 10N- #>is figure only measures t>e

dire?t benefits of t>e railway- #>e railway will ?ontribute to t>e e?onomi? de=elopment oft>e region in se=eral waysH it will redu?e transport ?osts for eisting industries maing

t>em more ?ompetiti=eO by pro=iding an effi?ient and effe?ti=e ser=i?e lining t>e

!ember States it will redu?e t>e ?ost of doing business in t>e Gulf region stimulating

trade and intera?tionO and it will enable t>e States to a=oid some of t>e ?osts of building

and maintaining more roads for e=er in?reasing road traffi?-

#>e GCC railway will be good for t>e en=ironment- >ile all transport ser=i?es >a=e

some impa?t t>e alignment >as been designed to eep t>e impa?t on t>e p>ysi?al and

e?ologi?al en=ironment to a minimum- #>e impa?t of t>e operating railway will be

substantially less t>an eui=alent transport by tru? or tra=el by air- &n parti?ular t>eoperating railway will >a=e a small ?arbon footprint s>owing t>at t>e Gulf States do tae

en=ironmental issues seriously-

H6 6 / @: @/ >< ;:/:e simplest approa?> to building t>e railway would be for ea?> !ember State to build

t>e portion in its own ?ountry as part of t>eir national railways- #>is would enable t>e

!ember States to optimiBe t>e GCC railway wit> respe?t to t>eir own national plans-

#>is is w>at we >a=e assumed-

#o operate t>e GCC railway we propose t>at a GCC railway ?orporation be formed wit>

responsibility for ensuring t>e pro=ision of regional railway ser=i?es- &t would a?uire

operating ?apa?ity o=er t>ose se?tions of t>e national railways it reuires for w>i?> it

would pay its fair s>are of t>e ?apital and operating ?osts all of t>em for se?tions wit>

no national traffi?- #>us it would not own or operate infrastru?ture but it would buy t>e

rig>t to use it-

Sin?e t>e Kabo=e railJ operation is epe?ted to be profitable t>e operation of t>e regional

ser=i?es ?ould be tendered out as a ?on?ession- #>e su??essful operator would not pay

a??ess ?>arges but t>e ?on?ession payments would pro=ide in?ome for t>e ?orporation

t>at would ?ontribute towards t>e full ?ost of t>e operating rig>ts- #>e s>ortfall ?ould be

allo?ated amongst t>e GCC !ember States by agreement re?ogniBing t>e e?onomi?

benefits realiBed by ea?> State-

I?;:?:>//>

#>e de?ision to pro?eed wit> t>e ?onstru?tion and operation of a GCC railway will need

to be in?orporated into a set of resolutions of t>e GCC Supreme Coun?il- #>e

resolutions will establis> t>e prin?iples for and institutional and funding stru?ture of a

GCC railway and t>e regulatory arrangements to w>i?> it will be subIe?ted- /n?e t>e

prin?iples are establis>ed at t>e GCC le=el t>e GCC railway ?orporation ?an be formed



14/70


and ne?essary lo?al regulations establis>ed in ea?> !ember State to implement t>e

Supreme Coun?il resolutions-

C>>

#>e proposed railway appears liely to be e?onomi?ally Iustified- #>e preliminary

estimate of t>e rate of return is Iust o=er 10N- &t will ?arry freig>t and passenger traffi?

?ontributing to t>e e?onomi? de=elopment and ?o>esion of t>e Gulf region- Finan?ially

t>e Kabo=e railJ operating ?ompany s>ould be =iable presenting an opportunity for t>is to

be a pri=ate ?on?ession- #>e rail infrastru?ture will not be ?ommer?ially =iable- &t will

need to be pro=ided in t>e same way as roads and ot>er basi? infrastru?ture- &t will be

?onstru?ted and operated by t>e member states wit> t>e operating rig>ts for regional

ser=i?es pur?>ased by a GCC Railway Corporation- #>e total infrastru?ture ?ost is

estimated to be L8-02 billion but t>is may be redu?ed if se?tions of t>e line are built as

part of or in ?onIun?tion wit> national lines- #>e proIe?t s>ould pro?eed to t>epreliminary design stage-

K:7 S///

P:>=: S:: 201! 2020 2024 202# 203! 2045!illions of dollars )SD,

Re=enue 102 25 :: 471 642 :10dire?t ?ost 62 68 8: 117 142 177allo?ated ?ost 46 51 56 62 75 :4;oint 10 12 12 14 16 18EBITDA &1! 194 242 2"# 409 !21

Capital ?ost L775 !&RR 24-5

F:=-/ S::2016 2020 2024 2028 206 2045

Re=enue 47: 6:7 1028 157 18:2 2847dire?t ?ost 22 266 6 527 556 :1:allo?ated ?ost 44 4: 54 5: 72 :0;oint 118 158 175 1:4 27 2:8EBITDA #5 224 4!3 5"" 102" 1540Capital ?ost L1215 !&RR 27-8N

T/ EBITDA !9 41# "05 #55 143! 21!1/=erall#otal in=estment L15850 ! )o=er 0 years,&RR 5-1N

E>? A>7

2013 2014 2015 201! 201" 202# 2045

assenger .enefits 110 1:: 72 467

assenger eternalities 4: 8: 171 22

Freig>t ?osts a=oided 610 644 1118 1476



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Freig>t eternalities 5: 70 507 75:

&nfrastru?ture ope 176 1:8 1:8 1:8assenger ope 68 68 :4 :4

Freig>t ope 25 258 40 4:5

&nfrastru?ture Cape 2646 2646 481 15 15assenger ?ape 52:

Freig>t ope 888

(&RR P10-2N



16/70


TABLE OF ACRONYMS

.& .a>rain &ntermodal )ie no p>ysi?al rail ser=i?e,

.< .a>rain@rain by Rail

(.DA (arnings before interest ta depre?iation and amortiBation

(&A (n=ironmental impa?t assessment

(&RR (?onomi? internal rate of return

(SCA (?onomi? + So?ial Commission for estern Asia

GCC Gulf Cooperation Coun?ilGD Gross Domesti? rodu?t

G#* Gross tonne@ilometres

&RR &nternal rate of return

*SA *ingdom of Saudi Arabia

%SR %ort>@Sout> Railway

SR/ Saudi Rail /rganiBation

A( nited Arab (mirates

CURRENCY

All pri?es are in LS unless ot>erwise spe?ified

S"S#RA$ CA%ARA&'$SC(C )*+A, age : of 62


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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND

#>e ?ountries of t>e Gulf Cooperation Coun?il )GCC, are eperien?ing rapid e?onomi?

growt> and t>e transport se?tor is =ital to regional trade and t>e e?>ange of goods and

ser=i?es among t>e GCC States- it>in t>at ?ontet one big ?>allenge ?onfronting t>e

GCC States today is building transport networs to support t>e regionJs fast@mo=ing

de=elopment-

#>e obIe?ti=e of t>is feasibility study was to assess t>e o=erall need and potential traffi?

for a rail lin stret?>ing from *uwait City to !us?at lining t>e si members of t>e GCC

)State of *uwait nited Arab (mirates )A(, *ingdom of .a>rain State of e *ingdom of Saudi Arabia )*SA,,- #>e rail lin is seen as an

answer to t>e growing need for transportation of freig>t and passenger on t>is ?orridor-

#>e study was ?ondu?ted in t>e period September 2007 @ September 2008- #>is is t>e

Draft Final Report prepared by t>e Consultant )Systra $ Canarail $ *>atib + Alami, under

a ?ontra?t awarded by t>e GCC@Se?retariat General-

1.2 TRANSPORT PATTERNS IN GCC COUNTRIES

#>e Gulf region is growing rapidly- Areas t>at were desert 20 years ago are now =ibrantmodern ?ommunities- #>e population of t>e region ?ontinues to grow apa?e as

international ?ompanies lo?ate offi?es in t>e Gulf States and ser=i?e industries de=elop

in response to new opportunities- #>e e?onomy of t>e si GCC ?ountries is liely to

?ontinue de=eloping in t>e mid term due to >ig> oil pri?es and e?onomi? di=ersifi?ation-

Constru?tion will remain t>e dominant se?tor in t>e GCC ?ountries and t>e tourism

maret is liely to grow parti?ularly in t>e A(-



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Table 1.1 - GDP and Population of GCC countries 2001-2025

C>/7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005GDP P;. GDP P;. GDP P;. GDP P;. GDP P;.

.a>rain 1 807 0:10 14 52: 0:4 15 56: 0:58 16 46 0:8 17 722 1007*uwait 45 508 2182 46 861 2261 5 2: 225 57 147 2:0 61 148 2457/man 4 147 2478 46 84 258 47 577 241 48 52 2416 51 140 250:< P;/> GCC >/: 2010&2025

C>/7 200! 2010 2015 2020 2025GDP P;. GDP P;. GDP P;. GDP P;. GDP P;.

.a>rain 1: 000 10 2 :41 108: 0 121 1161 7 716 12 44 6 12:8*uwait 65 000 2754 80 056 047 106 876 404 140 :00 711 170 125 :58/man 5 000 2577 60 2 2:28 70 25 415 80 :0: :4 :2 12 447:ow t>at bot> GD and population growt> rates are epe?ted to eep de=eloping steadily o=er t>e net two

de?ades ?ontinuing t>e trend of pre=ious years-



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(?onomi? and population growt> are strongly ?orrelated wit> t>e de=elopment of

transport a?ti=ities- #>ere >as been a dramati? in?rease in t>e demand for transport

bot> freig>t and passenger and for t>e ?onseuential need for new or epandes roads

ports and airports-

1.3 FREIGHT TRANSPORT

#>e GCC region >as a fa=ourable geograp>i? lo?ation wit> good a??essibility by air

land and sea and t>is is en?ouraging growt> in trade amongst t>e GCC ?ountries and

beyond wit> (urope %ort>ern and !iddle Afri?a and Asia-

(ports from GCC ?ountries )ot>er t>an oil, are mostly bound to t>e regional GCC

maret- #>ey ?onsist of petroleum produ?ts )?arried by water or pipeline, mineral oils

?ement lime raw materials )iron ores gra=el stone, steel and aluminium and?onsumer produ?ts transported by tru? or water )from A(,-

&mports to GCC ?ountries mainly ?onsist of semi@finis>ed produ?ts )some from Saudi

Arabia and A( by tru?s, foodstuffs from a?ross t>e world )by sea, and from

neig>bouring Arab 'eague ?ountries )tru?s, >ea=y raw materials )by sea from A(,

for ?onstru?tion purposes and ?ement produ?ts mainly from *SA--

#>e GCC ?ountries are de=eloping t>eir industrial base by using t>e a=ailability of low

?ost gas resour?es to attra?t energy intensi=e industries su?> as steel produ?tion and

aluminium smelting preparing t>emsel=es for t>e future w>en oil produ?tion will slow-#>ey are also de=eloping t>eir tourism industry- #>is will affe?t transportation patterns in

t>e GCC ?ountries-

A=erage freig>t transport all modes o=er 2004@2006 was estimated at 40 million tonnes

in t>e GCC ?ountries t>e lionJs s>are of w>i?> was gra=el and limestone for t>e

?onstru?tion industry-

1.4 PASSENGER TRANSPORT

#able 1- s>ows t>at epe?ted road passenger traffi? )pri=ate ?ars, in GCC ?ountries isepe?ted to in?rease by 70N to 2016 and to nearly double between 2016 and 2045

w>ile air transport will more t>an double by 2045- *eeping up wit> t>is growt> will

reuire >uge in=estment in roads and airports-

T@: 1.3 & A>> C >< A ;:>=: / > GCC >/: 200!&2025

'?>(

P:>=: 200! 201! 202# 2045Car 170:6 28671 40100 52425Air 8658 1252 16:8 21657

Source: Consultant estimate (see technical note 2)



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2. THE PROPOSAL

#>e proposal is to build a railway line from *uwait City to !us?at- #>e railway will form

part of an &ntegrated #ransport System in t>e Arab !as>reE )SA!, being promoted

under t>e auspi?es of t>e % (?onomi? and So?ial Commission for estern Asia)(SCA,- SA! ?ontemplates a networ ?onsisting of main ais orientated

nort>$sout> and east$west plus ot>er aes and tra?s as reuired-

#>e proposed railway wit> t>e ability to safely >aul large uantities of goods and

signifi?ant numbers of people o=er long distan?es meets t>e reuirements of t>e GCC

States to ?omplement t>e eisting sea and road transportation networs between

*uwait and /man- &t will bind toget>er ot>er rail proIe?ts at =arious stages of

de=elopment t>roug>out t>e region- &n Saudi Arabia t>e line will lin wit> t>e Saudi

'andbridge near Dammam and wit> t>e %ort>@Sout> minerals railway at ;ubail-

*uwaitQs intended line between t>e &rai and Saudi borders will also be integrated intot>e networ-

#>e new railway line will promote t>e mobility of people fostering an effi?ient flow of

GCC nationals )business people tourists and worers, t>roug>out t>e GCC-

#>e GCC Railway will ?onstitute a ?omplementary means for transporting passengers

t>us relie=ing road traffi? and pro=iding opportunities for more internal integration wit>

airports and ot>er )water and land, transport fa?ilities-

#>e total trip duration on t>e GCC railway line from end to end maes trains ?ompetiti=e

wit> road tra=el- &t will be ?ompetiti=e wit> air tra=el for origins and destinations up to

about four >ours apart- #>e ?onne?tion of t>e GCC line to new urban de=elopment

Bones integrating emerging ?ommuter and national transport systems will also foster t>e

use of t>e GCC railways in t>ese areas-

2.1 ROUTE

#>e starting point for identifying a route to be used in t>e feasibility study was t>e

?oastal R05 ?orridor as defined by t>e (?onomi? + So?ial Commission for estern Asia

)(SCA, between *uwait City and !us?at wit> t>e addition of (SCAJs R82 ?orridorbetween Do>a and Salwa- #>e route follows t>e Arabian Gulf ?oast pro=iding

?onne?tions wit> t>e maIor ?ities and ports- &t will ?onne?t wit> t>e %ort>@Sout> Railway

in ;ubal and t>e 'andbridge near Dammam pro=iding ?onne?tions to Riyad> and ot>er

points wit>in *SA-



21/70


F=: 2.1 & R:=> >:/6 :/>= >< ;>>:e Consultant ?arried out site =isits to in=estigate topograp>i?al and en=ironmental

?onditions and ?onstraints along t>e proposed route- A first draft feasibility alignment

was presented in t>e &n?eption Report and during t>e strategi? seminar >eld in Riyad>

on ;anuary 22 2008- #>is was amended in response to ?omments from !ember

Countries at t>e seminar and in subseuent meetings and a se?ond =ersion was

presented during t>e mid@term wors>op >eld in Riyad> on April 27@28 2008-

#>e feasibility alignment was endorsed by t>e GCC !ember States during a meeting

>eld in Riyad> on ;une 17 2008-

Details of t>e alignment and t>e fa?tors taen into a??ount in its sele?tion are pro=ided

in t>e te?>ni?al notes in Volume 2-

2.2 DESCRIPTION OF OPTIONS FOR BAHRAIN

#>e (SCA ?orridor did not pro=ide epli?itly for a ?onne?tion to .a>rain- #>ree rail

options were ?onsidered- #>ese in=ol=e ?onstru?ting a rail ?onne?tion alongside t>e

eisting ?auseway lining .a>rain to *SA as part of a proposed new ?auseway to

- #>e base ?ase is for t>e ?onne?tion to .a>rain to by road transport

)&ntermodal ser=i?e, from &nter?>ange Station lo?ated at t>e Iun?tion between t>e GCC

line and t>e eisting SR/ line between Riyad> and Dammam-

&n t>e first option .a>rain by Rail ).R, t>e lin between &nter?>ange station and

!anama is a train ser=i?e using a new rail lin ?reated between t>e *SA and .a>rain

paralleling t>e eisting ?auseway- #>is would enable rail to ?apture most of t>e potential

freig>t and passenger traffi? from$to .a>rain-



22/70


#>e se?ond option .a>rain@e new bridge planned to lin .a>rain and is would be

attra?ti=e for passengers and freig>t between .a>rain and A( or /man but would be

less attra?ti=e t>an t>e .R option for passengers or goods to or from *uwait or *SA-

#>e t>ird option is to in?lude bot> .R and .e railway would ?ross .a>rain

allowing ser=i?es from *uwait and *SA to a??ess rain-

Figure 2.2 - Options for Sering !a"rain

*uwait &nter?>ange As Salwa !us?at

!anama Do>a

Dammam

Riyad>SR/ line

.ase ?ase

.R

.e freig>t traffi? fore?ast in=ol=ed an analysis and assessment of international freig>t

data ?olle?ted from member ?ountries supplemented by meetings wit> t>e transport

aut>orities most port aut>orities of t>e GCC ?ountries and sele?ted s>ippers- An

understanding was de=eloped of t>e ?urrent traffi? flows and epe?ted trends and t>e

liely effe?t of signifi?ant maret ?>anges and ?apital in=estments ?urrently taing pla?e

in t>e GCC ?ountries- A summary of ea?> ?ountryJs trade patterns and ?ommoditymo=ements during 2004@2006 is gi=en as appendi 1 to t>is report- Details of t>e freig>t

traffi? fore?ast re=iew analysis and results are gi=en in te?>ni?al note 1 )#%1, in

Volume 2-

/ffi?ial trade statisti?s s>owing ea?> ?ountryJs trade patterns and ?ommodity

mo=ements were analysed by origin and w>et>er t>ey were bul or in ?ontainers- #>e

analysis was by ?ommodity and origin$destination pairs for import eport and re@eport

freig>t traffi?- rimary marets and t>eir trends were also analysed- !o=ements of

?ommodities suitable for rail if su?> ser=i?e were a=ailable were >ig>lig>ted- #>e flows

identified as potential rail traffi? by t>e Consultant were t>en dis?ussed in meetings >eldin ea?> ?ountry and a refined list of potential flows de=eloped-



23/70


#>e fore?ast was de=eloped on t>e basis of tonnage by ?ommodity and

origin$destination pairs for ea?> ?ountry- #>e base referen?e year for t>e freig>t fore?ast

was 2016- #>ree business s?enarios were de=elopedH low base ?ase and >ig>-

Fore?asts beyond 2016 were de=eloped taing into a??ount business growt> fa?tors by

?ommodity maret and t>e liely rate at w>i?> traffi? would transfer to rail gi=en railJsemergen?e as a new mode of transport wit>in t>e region- #raffi? di=erted from water or

tru? were identified separatelyH t>ese figures are used in t>e e?onomi? e=aluation of

using rail =ersus water and$or tru?-

#>e freig>t traffi? fore?ast was de=eloped on t>e assumption t>at rail w>et>er t>roug>

t>e GCC Railway line or national railway lines would rea?> all t>e traffi? generators

identified in ea?> ?ountry- &f rail a??ess is not pro=ided to any of t>e identified traffi?

generators t>e freig>t traffi? originally identified from t>at traffi? generator point will

disappear diminis>ing t>e total fore?ast tonnage- #>ese ?onne?tions w>i?> will be part

of national railway networs are =ital for rail to be?ome a =iable transportationalternati=e in t>e region-

Competiti=e freig>t rates were de=eloped per ton@m per ?ommodity and

origin$destination pairs based on a=erage freig>t rates offered by tru?ing or seagoing

?ompetitors- #>e offi?ial freig>t rates publis>ed by SR/ and rates obtained by ot>er

studies were also re=iewed for ?omparison purposes-

#>e traffi? fore?ast was de=eloped on t>e basis of t>e four .a>rain optionsH

.a>rain &ntermodal ).&,

.a>rain Rail ).R,

.a>rain &ntermodal plus .a>rain @ rain @ of t>e GCC ?ountries and ot>er Arab 'eague

?ountries from wit>in t>e Arab 'eague treating t>ese ?ountries as one trading Bone

wit>in w>i?> trains tru?s and s>ips ?ompete for business- #>e potential rail s>are

assumes t>e .R lin to .a>rain sin?e t>is is reuired for rail to win all t>e potential

traffi?- #>e effe?t of sele?ting ot>er options is dis?ussed furt>er below- #>e figure is for a

representati=e year based on 2004 2006 data-

T@: 3.4 & I?;/ @7 GCC >< /-: A@ L:=: C>/: '?> />>:

K6/ B-> +/ O?> UAE KSA O/-: T/

3ea=y raw materials 14- -5 5- @@@ @@@ @@@ @@@ 2-1

Containers 0-4 0-2 0-6 0-7 0-5 0- 1-7 4-4

/t>er 1-6 1-4 0-7 1-1 -2 -6 1-: 12-5



24/70


#otal 16- 5-1 6-6 1-8 -7 -: 2-6 40-0

Source: weighted average of 2!"2# official trade data

/f t>e 40 million tons of freig>t traffi? in 2004@2006 a total of 2 million tons or 58N

?onsists of >ea=y raw material ?ommodities su?> as gra=el stone and limestone

imported by mainly *uwait .a>rain and ile 4-4 million tons or 11N are in

?ontainers- #>e remaining 12 million tonnes ?onsist of steel and iron produ?ts natural

sands aluminum produ?ts and arti?les mineral fuels oils and bituminous produ?ts

?ement of all inds mis?ellaneous produ?ts organi?$inorgani? produ?ts natural mineral

water refined sugar stone and marble and fruits and =egetables-

All t>e raw materials originate in A(- Aside from t>ese >ig> =olumes of raw materials

A( generated 4- million tons of ot>er freig>t traffi?- At least >alf of t>is was ?ontainer

traffi? in transit =ia t>e A( to ot>er ?ountries wit>in t>e region- Saudi Arabia generated

about 6-7 millions tons of general freig>t destined to ot>er ?ountries wit>in t>e region-

#>ese two ?ountries >a=e a strong ?ommer?ial base and been net eporters of goods

to t>e ot>er GCC and Arab 'eague ?ountries for a number of years- (?luding raw

materials t>ey a??ount for 75N of t>e regional general freig>t traffi?-

%ot only is A( t>e se?ond largest eporter of general freig>t among GCC ?ountries it

is also t>e se?ond largest importer at Iust o=er 7 million tons- #>is refle?ts t>e etensi=e

de=elopment a?ti=ity in t>e ?ountry and epe?ted to ?ontinue for some time into t>e

future-

3.3 FORECAST RAIL MARKET

(a?> of t>e freig>t flows was assessed in terms of its suitability and liely profitability for

transport by rail- #able -2 ?ompares t>e a=erage annual freig>t tonnage imported

wit>in t>e region during 2004@2006 wit> t>e fore?ast freig>t =olume in 2016- #>e o=erall

fore?ast freig>t =olume proIe?ted to be >andled by t>e GCC railway line is 1 million

tons in 2016- #>is fore?ast =olume in?ludes 17 million tons of raw materials ?onsisting

of gra=el and stone )7 million tons, limestone )6 million tons, and bauite )4 million

tons, w>i?> is new to t>e region- &t also in?ludes 4-1 million tonnes of transit ?ontainerstraffi?- /t>er general freig>t produ?ts fore?ast for >andling by rail total 10 millions tons in

2016 representing about 0N of t>e =olume of all ot>er produ?ts to be imported wit>in

t>e region-

>en t>is o=erall fore?ast is ?ompared wit> table -1 it appears >ig>- 3owe=er of t>e

2016 fore?ast bauite )4 million tonnes, will be new traffi? @ t>e Consultant epe?ts t>at

aluminium smelters in t>e region will sour?e some of t>eir bauite from Saudi Arabia in

t>e future rat>er t>an from o=erseas- #>e 2016 fore?asts also in?lude 6 million tons of

limestone due to ?ement plant epansion in *uwait .a>rain and in t>e net

few years ?ompared wit> about 1-5 millions tons in 2004$2006-



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Finally due to population and business a?ti=ity growt> wit>in t>e region t>e ?ontainer

traffi? from o=erseas and t>e general freig>t traffi? from wit>in t>e region is epe?ted to

almost double in =olume between 2004@2006 and 2016-

T@: 3.5 & A:=: F:/ F:=-/ T>>=:

C>/:2004&200!

%:=-/:< :=:T> > 'M(

201!B: :T> > 'M(

*uwait 16- 7-5.a>rain 5-1 6-7er Arab 'eague Countries 2-6 1-0#otal 40-0 1-1

3.3.1 F:=-/ T F:/ /-: F B-> O;/>

#ables - and -4 s>ow t>e effe?t of t>e ?>oi?e of option for .a>rain on t>e total rail

maret-

T@: 3.! & B-> O;/> &I?;/

S??7 T@: & M: ) I?;/ T>>: '000(

C>/: BI BR BIB+ BRB+

K6/ 7515 7515 7515 7515B-> 0 6740 485 6740

+/ 4250 4250 4250 4250

O?> 25:0 2840 2840 2840

UAE 680 7105 7105 7105

KSA 14:0 15:0 14:0 15:0

O/-: A@ C>/: 105 105 105 105

G>< T/ 23"10 310"5 290"0 310"5

T@: 3." & B-> O;/> &E;/

S??7 T@: & M: ) E;/ T>>: '000(


K6/ :0 5:0 :0 5:0

B-> 0 625 525 625

+/ 1125 1125 1125 1125

O?> 00 00 00 00

UAE 125 17710 17710 17710

KSA 8740 1085 8740 1085

O/-: A@ C>/: 820 880 820 880

G>< T/ 23"10 310"5 290"0 310"5

nder t>e .& option t>ere is no rail freig>t traffi? to .a>rain- An intermodal ser=i?e from

t>e proposed &nter?>ange Station in Saudi Arabia at t>e Iun?tion of t>e GCC line andt>e Riyad> Dammam line was ?onsidered but for t>e potential ?ommodities transfer



26/70


to tru? at &nter?>ange station would be une?onomi?- Conseuently t>e o=erall fore?ast

drops from 1 million tons to 2-7 million tons- #>e GCC ?ountry most affe?ted under

t>is routing s?enario would be A( sin?e its o=erall eport fore?ast is redu?ed from

17-7 million tons to 12- million tons- #>e se?ond most affe?ted is Saudi Arabia wit> a

drop in fore?ast traffi? of more t>an 1-6 million tons- *uwait eperien?es a small drop of200000 tons and t>e ot>er Arab 'eague ?ountries drop 60000 tons- e .< option rail is ?ompetiti=e for traffi? from A( and /man- 3owe=er traffi?

between .a>rain and *uwait Saudi Arabia and ot>er Arab 'eague ?ountries is fore?ast

to remain on tru? sin?e it is not ?ost@effe?ti=e to di=ert =ia en tru?s >a=e a

dire?t route to .a>rain from Saudi Arabia- All in all t>e total fore?ast =olume affe?ted is

about 2 million tons mainly ?oming from Saudi Arabia-

#>e .R and .R.< options retain all t>e potential traffi?-

3.3.2 L6 >< H=- F:=-/ F:/

#ables -5 and -6 summariBe by routing s?enario t>e total tonnage epe?ted to be

transported by t>e new GCC railway line in t>e base year under low and >ig> fore?asts-

#>e low s?enario redu?es t>e base fore?ast by 40N and also >al=es t>e epe?ted

growt> rate- #>e >ig> s?enario in?reases t>e fore?ast by 10N- #>e same growt> rate

was used as in t>e base ?ase s?enario-

#>e low business ?ase option will pro=ide a total of about 18-7 million tons of freig>t

traffi? in 2016 t>e >ig> business ?ase 4-2 million tons-

T@: 3.# ) S??7 T@: ) L6 O;/>

S??7 T@: & L6 O;/> ) I?;/ T>>: '000(


K6/ 450: 450: 450: 450:

B-> 0 4044 2:01 4044

+/ 2550 2550 2550 2550

O?> 1554 1704 1704 1704UAE 40:8 426 426 426

KSA 8:4 :54 8:4 :54

O/-: A@ C>/: 621 621 621 621

G>< T/ 1422! 1#!45 1"442 1#!45

T@: 3.9 ) S??7 T@: ) H=- O;/>

S??7 T@: & H=- O;/> & I?;/ T>>: '000(


K6/ 8267 8267 8267 8267

B-> 0 7414 51: 7414

+/ 4675 4675 4675 4675O?> 284: 124 124 124

S"S#RA$ CA%ARA&'$SC(C )*+A, age 1: of 62


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UAE 751 7816 7816 7816

KSA 16: 174: 16: 174:

O/-: A@ C>/: 11: 11: 11: 11:

G>< T/ 2!0#1 341#3 319"" 341#3

3.3.3 S??7 /-: F R/>= S:> L6 M:< H=-R::>: F:/

#ables -7 -8 and -: summariBe t>e total re=enue epe?ted to be generated by t>e

new GCC railway line under t>e low medium and >ig> s?enarios and by route option-

#>e low business ?ase option will pro=ide a total of re=enue of about S L240 million in

2016 w>ile t>e >ig> business ?ase option will generate about S L 440 million- #>e

fore?ast re=enue for t>e medium business ?ase is S L 400 million-

T@: 3.10 & R::>: > US *'000( 7: 201!& L6 S:>

C>/: BI BIB+ BR BRB+

*uwait 467 467 52:1 52:1.a>rain 0 11828 11787 118:4

er Arab Countries 5:00 5:00 6145 6145

G>< T/ 210450 23#922 240330 240#"2

T@: 3.11 & R::>: > US *'000( 7: 201!& M:


*uwait 772: 772: 881: 881:

.a>rain 0 1:71 1:646 1:82

er Arab Countries :8 :8 10242 10242

G>< T/ 350"50 39#204 400550 401453

T@: 3.12 & R::>: > US *'000( 7: 201!& H=- S:>


*uwait 8502 8502 :701 :701

.a>rain 0 21685 21610 21806

er Arab Countries 10817 10816 11266 11266

G>< T/ 85825 48024 440605 4415:8



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3.4 TRAIN OPERATION

Freig>t operation fo?used on t>e fa?t t>at t>e most e?onomi?al way to mo=e wagons is

by >ea=y >aul unit train operations w>i?> maimiBes lo?omoti=e and operating ?rew

produ?ti=ity- #o a=oid ?onfli?t wit> 220 m$> passenger trains most of t>is traffi? will bes?>eduled during t>e nig>t t>us a?>ie=ing optimal use of t>e infrastru?ture- 25 tonnes

ale load >as been assumed- 3owe=er t>e etra ?ost for upgrading infrastru?ture to 2

tonnes is small- #>e design of t>e line ?an be adapted to t>is ale load and t>e rolling

sto? ?an be sele?ted in t>e lig>t of t>e future de?isions made regarding t>e ale load

sele?ted for ot>er networs operated in t>e region and for t>e lines ?onne?ted wit> t>e

GCC railway-

(ig>t mars>alling$inter?>ange and intermodal yards will be used to form and dispat?>

freig>t trains- #>ey are foreseen atH

*uwait )*m 005,

&nter?>ange )*m 440,

Salwa )*m 616,

Do>a )*m720,

;ebel Ali )*m 1186,

FuIaira> deposit )*m 1277,

!us?at )*m 15:6,-

An additional yard at !anama )*m 511, is in?luded in t>e .R .R.< and .< options-

#>e AR(!A double sta? gauge =erti?al ?learan?e >as been allowed for in t>e

infrastru?ture design to in?rease t>e a=ailable ?apa?ity of ea?> train-

Flows and tonnages >a=e been identified and ?on=erted into trains or part of trains

a??ording to t>eir net weig>t and t>eir ?ategory and fi=e types of trains >a=e been

identifiedH

unit trains dedi?ated to ?arrying bul raw materials and able to pull 100ore or ?o=ered >opper wagons at a gross weig>t of 10000 tons at a maimum

speed of 80m$>O

General ?argo trains ?arrying mis?ellaneous produ?ts on standard flat

?o=ered >opper and double sta? ?ontainer flat wagons and able to pull 80 wagons

and 8000 tons at a maimum speed of 80 m$>-

Dedi?ated dangerous ?ommodity trains >auling between 40 and 80 tan

wagons 8000 tons at maimum speed of 80 m$>-



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Double sta? ?ontainer trains ?arrying ?ontainers from ports to maIor

?ities able to pull up to 100 wagons and up to 10000 tons at a maimum speed of

80 )or maybe 100m$>,-

'ig>t double sta? ?ontainer trains )4500 tons 60 wagons, running at120m$> t>at will be run during day time to transport >ig> =alue lig>t ?argo and

peris>able produ?ts-

General freig>t traffi? will reuire a wagon pooling arrangement between t>e GCC

railway and t>e ot>er railway lines in t>e region to maimiBe fleet utiliBation and

minimiBe empty flows- A ?entralised wagon management ?entre is proposed to manage

t>e double sta? wagon fleet and ?ould also manage loaded and empty mo=ement

between all t>e ?ountries-

Freig>t transportation plans )e?ept unit trains and tan trains, are based on two maIor

mars>alling$inter?>ange yards )&nter?>ange and Salwa, strategi?ally lo?ated at t>e

Iun?tions wit> lines to e plan will allow t>e general freig>t trains to be mars>alled to t>eir maimum weig>t

and lengt> limit in order to redu?e t>e number of trains to be run on t>e main line

between *uwait and !us?at- #rains will stop at t>e mars>alling$inter?>ange yards to

swit?> wagons to different dire?tions and to mae up trains- ;ebel Ali mars>alling yard

will also be used for ?oordinating t>e inter?>ange of wagons between GCC trains and

A( networ-

Fore?asts for were de=eloped by year from 2016 to 2045- #>e following table s>ows t>e

fore?ast number of freig>t trains for a standard day for t>e year 2028 .< option- #>e

two last lines indi?ate t>e number of trains epe?ted for ea?> dire?tion on ea?> se?tion

of line- Daily freig>t traffi? between Salwa and Abu D>abi s>ows 18-8 loaded and empty

trains on t>e est@(ast dire?tion and 15-8 in t>e (ast@est dire?tion-

F=: 3.3 ) D7 :=-/ ;/- ;: :/> >:

/n?e freig>t ser=i?es were defined yearly train@ilometres and train >ours were

assessed- #>e number of lo?omoti=es reuired )t>ree typesH 4400AC for 80 m$> and



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10000 tons 4000 AC for 120 m$> and s>unt lo?omoti=es for 1500 tons, as well as t>e

number of wagons needed to pro=ide t>e transportation plan is gi=en below-

T@: 3.13 & F:=-/ /> K?:/: >< >= / 202#

BI BR BIB+ BRB+

#rainTm )!, 14-6 1:-8 16- 1:-8

#rain@>our )000, 217 250 24 250

'ine lo?omoti=es 80 m$> 71 84 81 84

'ine lo?omoti=es 120 m$> 12 14 14 14

S>unt lo?omoti=es 16 21 21 21

agons 816 1020 :5:8 1020

4. PASSENGER SERVICES

4.1 TRAFFIC FORECAST METHODOLOGY

4.1.1 O::6

&ntrodu?tion of t>e proposed rail ser=i?es will ?auses signifi?ant ?>anges in t>e

relations>ip between modes of transport- Various effe?ts ?an be distinguis>edH

#ransfer of traffi? from air to railH

#ransfer of traffi? from road to railH

#ransfer of traffi? from bus to railH

&ndu?ed traffi?H

assenger traffi? fore?asts were ?arried out on a step@by@step basis using e?onometri?

models- #>ere were four main stagesH

S/=: 1relates to t>e ?urrent situation )2006 in t>is ?ase,- Current traffi?

is eit>er dire?tly ?al?ulated from a=ailable data or if ne?essary estimated wit>

appropriate models-

S/=: 2?on?erns t>e transition from t>e ?urrent situation to t>e situation

in t>e base year of t>e proIe?t )2016 in t>is ?ase, wit>out implementing t>e proIe?t-

#>is ?orresponds to t>e normalE e=olution of traffi? into t>e future- Growt> in

passenger traffi? is >ig>ly ?orrelated to demograp>i? ?>anges and GD growt>-

S/=: 3estimates t>e traffi? t>at will use rail in t>e proIe?t situation in t>e

start year- Competition models were de=eloped to e=aluate t>e rail traffi? di=erted

from ot>er modes- &ndu?ed traffi? was also estimated-

S/=: 4 ?onsists of estimating traffi? for t>e years following t>e

?ommissioning of t>e proIe?t- Fore?asts were de=eloped for ea?> year up to 2045-

#>e results for year 2028 are briefly des?ribed-



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4.1.2 C:>/ //>

Data on ?urrent tra=el patterns by ?ar bus and air were ?olle?ted as follows- !ore

details are pro=ided in te?>ni?al note 2 U#%2 in =olume 2-

#>e ?entral geograp>i? position of *SA means t>at ?ars tra=eling between all GCC

?ountries e?ept /man to A( must ?ross *SA- Customs data on border ?rossings was

?olle?ted from Saudi !inistry of Finan?e and Saudi Customs for 2007- #>is pro=ided t>e

number of ?ars by nationality arri=ing and departing forH

.a>rain )*ing Fa>d Causeway,

a,

*uwait )Al Rai and Al *>afIi,-

Saudi people at t>e border wit> A( were assigned to A( and /man in proportion to

t>eir population- #>e ?ountry data were assigned to ?ities in proportion to t>e population

of t>e ?ities- !issing traffi? was estimated using a gra=ity model-

A?tual bus traffi? data were a=ailable only from /man and Saudi Arabia- All ot>er bus

tra=el was estimated using publis>ed bus freuen?ies and bus o??upan?y rates-

Data on air tra=el was ?olle?ted from t>e website of t>e Arab Air Carriers w>i?> gi=es

all flig>ts for t>e rele=ant airports wit> or wit>out ?onne?tions- All flig>ts for t>e period

from rd!ar?> 2008 to :t>!ar?> 2008 were ?onsidered-

#able 4-1 summarises t>e base year traffi? data-

T@: 4.14 & I>/:&GCC C>/7 P:>=: T; '000(

C>/: CAR BUS AIR

*uwait 4518 57 2:40.a>rain 17478 58 4-:1:

< T/ 43449 1222 25045

4.1.3 F:/ M:/ G6/-

opulation and GD growt> play an important role in traffi? fore?asting- .asi?ally t>e

>ig>er are t>e population and GD t>e >ig>er t>e number of trips-

#>ese trends >a=e been deri=ed from national statisti?al yearboos and t>e GCC

(?onomi? .ulletin of 2007 w>i?> gi=e fore?ast =alues for population growt> rates until



32/70


2028 and GD growt> rate for t>e period 2006@2012- After 2012 t>e GD growt> rate

>as been e=aluated as followsH

For t>e period 2012@2020 t>e same rate as t>at for 2012 was assumed

wit> some adIustment of outlying =alues- For t>e period 2020@2028 a ?onser=ati=e GD growt> rate 2N )or t>e

fore?ast population growt> if t>is is >ig>er,-

#>e anti?ipated growt> rates for GCC ?ountries o=er t>e periods are presented in

#able 4-2-

T@: 4.15 & GDP =6/- /:

P:< B-> K6/ O?> +/ S / R

#wo types of model were used to estimate t>e di=ersion to rail- For air tra=ellers t>e

time by rail is longer but some passengers may use t>e train be?ause of t>e lower

pri?e- #>e proportion w>o transfer ?an be estimated using a pri?e@time model-

For ?urrent ?ar users and bus passengers t>e Iourney time is epe?ted to be less bytrain- #>e proportion of t>ese modes t>at transfer was estimated using a logit model-

#>is is a probabilisti? model- #>e probability t>at passengers use rail is assumed to be

proportional to t>e relati=e ?ost ?ompared to t>eir ?urrent tra=el mode- #>e K?ostJ used in

t>e ?al?ulation in?ludes tra=el time and ?ost )or fare,O a??ess time and ?ostO and waiting

time w>i?> depends on t>e freuen?y t>e need to transfer between trains and time for

immigration pro?edures-

#>e rail tra=el times depend on t>e alignment and t>e speed assumed- #>e freuen?ies

also influen?e t>e traffi? w>i?> in turn influen?es t>e reuired freuen?y- #>e

freuen?ies were t>erefore determined t>roug> an iterati=e pro?ess-

#>e main input parameters are s>own in #able 4-- #>e ?ost for ?ar tra=el in?ludes fuel

per?ei=ed maintenan?e ?osts and time-

T@: 4.1! & M> I>;/ D/ >< P?:/:



33/70


&n additional to di=erted traffi? t>ere is traffi? t>at wouldnJt eist wit>out t>e railway- &t is

generated by impro=ement in t>e tra=el options a=ailable- &t in?ludes more freuent

tra=el by eisting ?ustomers and t>e emergen?e of new tra=elers-

4.1.5 F/: T G6/-

#>e future growt> of rail traffi? is fore?ast using t>e same fa?tors as des?ribed in 4-1-2-

4.2 SERVICE ASSUMPTIONS

#>e patronage of t>e railway will depend on a number of ser=i?e le=el assumptions

fare speed freuen?y on board en=ironment et?- #>ese in turn influen?e t>e re=enue

earned and t>e operating ?osts- /perating a su??essful railway depends on establis>ing

t>e appropriate mi taing into a??ount t>e passenger maret and t>e railway ?ost

stru?ture-

4.2.1 F:

#>e model was used to estimate t>e patronage and t>us t>e re=enue at different fare

le=els- As t>e fare in?reases patronage falls until a point is rea?>ed w>ere furt>er

in?reases in fare a?tually result in lower re=enue- #>e re=enue maimising fare was

found to be L0-1$m- As a ?omparison t>e SR/ fare between Riyad> and Dammam is

60 SAR eui=alent to L0-02$m- %ote >owe=er t>at air fares on t>is route are mu?>

lower t>an on ot>er inter@GCC ?ountry routes and ?onseuently t>e re=enue

maimising fare between Riyad> and Dammam will be lower t>an t>e regional a=erage-

#>e analysis suggests t>at t>e railway s>ould be in t>e >ig> fare >ig> uality ser=i?e

se?tor of t>e maret- #>is is ?onsistent wit> t>e target patronage w>i?> is ?urrent ?ar

and air tra=ellers- #>e deri=ed fare of L0-1$m >as been assumed in all t>e analysis-

4.2.2 S;::ree speed options were ?onsidered 160 220 and 50m$>- #>ese were ?ompared in

terms of ?apital ?osts )rolling sto? and infrastru?ture, ser=i?e freuen?y operating

?osts patronage and re=enue- #>e analysis is reported in t>e te?>ni?al notes )#%2,-

#>e main points wereH



34/70


&nfrastru?tureH #>e ?>oi?e between 160 and 220m$>r >as no impa?t on t>e

infrastru?ture reuired- 3owe=er 50m$> would reuire a separate passenger line

w>i?> would need to be ele?trified- #>ere would also be some in?rease in signalling and

tele?ommuni?ation ?osts-

Rolling sto?H #>e ?ost of t>e passenger rolling sto? in?reases wit> speed- #>e number

of train ilometres reuired in ser=i?e also in?reases be?ause t>e patronage in?reases-

#>is is off@set to some etent by t>e better utiliBation of train sets possible be?ause

tra=el times are redu?ed- #>ere is also an impa?t on freig>t rolling sto?- between 160

and 220 t>e differen?e is minor delays to freig>t trains in?rease as t>e differen?e in

speeds in?reases- #>e 50m$> option on t>e ot>er >and will signifi?antly impro=e t>e

utilisation of freig>t lo?omoti=es and wagons sin?e it pro=ides freig>t wit> its own

separate tra?-

atronage and freuen?yH atronage is >ig>er wit> >ig>er speeds and t>is Kfeeds ba?Jinto >ig>er freuen?ies gi=ing a ?ompounding benefi?ial effe?t- Re=enue is t>erefore

also ?onseuentially >ig>er- /perating ?osts in?rease wit> bot> t>e speed and t>e

freuen?y )offset to a small etent by more effi?ient use of train ?rew,-

#able 4-4 summarises t>e results- !o=ing from t>e 160 m$> option to t>e 220 m$>

option attra?ts more re=enue and in?reases t>e net present =alue )%V,- &t is t>us

wort>w>ile- 3owe=er mo=ing to t>e 50m$> option results in a signifi?ant redu?tion in

t>e %V- >ile t>ere is an in?rease in riders>ip wit> t>e 50 option it is insuffi?ient to

balan?e t>e additional infrastru?ture ?osts-

T@: 4.1" & C?;> S;::< O;/> * ?>

S;::< I>//:R>=

/ ;R>=

/ :=-/NPV ;/>

160 7700 0 160 0

220 7700 470 160 760

50 16400 600 1140 @5470

#>e analysis >as been undertaen assuming 220 m$>r- %ote t>at t>is analysis is based

on t>e fore?ast traffi?- &n t>e future traffi? may grow to t>e etent t>at t>e additional

infrastru?ture in=estment is warranted-

4.2.3 F::>7

#>e train freuen?y depends on t>e demand offereing and t>e siBe of t>e trainsets- A

trainset ?apa?ity of 240 passengers >as been assumed for a trainset ?onsisting of si

passenger ?ars a dining ?ar and a baggage ?ar- #>is results in >ig>er freuen?y and

ser=i?e t>an t>e manufa?turers re?ommended 50 seats @ ?onsistent wit> a >ig> uality

ser=i?e-



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4.3 FORECAST TRAFFIC

4.3.1 F:/ @7 O;/>

#>e analysis was undertaen for ea?> of t>e .a>rain options- #>ey are presented in#able 4-5 for t>e year 2016- #>ese figures do not tae into a??ount t>e obser=ation t>at

on introdu?tion of a new ser=i?e it often taes se=eral years for tra=el patterns to adapt-

#>is is ?alled t>e ramp upE effe?t-

T@: 4.1# & P:>=: T > 201! P: ?


36/70


F=: 4.4 & A>> T '000( /6 > BI =>?:>/ '201!(

F=: 4.5 & A>> T '000( /6 > BR =>?:>/ ' 201!(

S"S#RA$ CA%ARA&'$SC(C )*+A, age 2: of 62


37/70


F=: 4.! & A>> T '000( /6 > B+ =>?:>/ '201!(

F=: 4." & A>> T '000( /6 > BR,B+ =>?:>/ '201!(

4.3.2 R:/ 7: 202#

#>e results for t>e year 2028 s>ow a signifi?ant in?rease between 2016 and 2028 as

s>own in #able 4-4- #>e 2016 figure represents a liely Kstart upJ patronage w>ile t>e

2028 figure gi=es an indi?ation of t>e siBe of railway t>at s>ould be allowed for in t>einitial design-



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Growt> in t>e region is >ig> so proIe?tions of traffi? into t>e future ?an result in

estimates t>at are =ery large- &t also means t>at a small differen?e in t>e assumed base

traffi? ?an result in large )and epensi=e, differen?es in t>e assumed euipment and

infrastru?ture reuirements in twenty years time- &n t>is regard future fore?asts for rail

traffi? are mu?> less ?ertain t>an )for eample, for future air tra=el w>ere at least t>ebase is nown- #>us w>ile normally t>e re?ommended strategy is to build in anti?ipation

of future growt> t>e prudent approa?> for t>is in=estment would be to plan for t>e

epe?ted initial traffi? but wit> a ?learly defined growt> pat> so t>at t>e future fore?ast

demand will be able to be a??ommodated s>ould it e=entuate-

Table #.1$ - Situations in 201% and 202&

BR 220?- Y201! Y202# G6/-

Rail #raffi? )t>ousands of pass-, 282: :58 6-: Na@m )millions, 161 2222 7-8 N

4.3.3 S:>//7 >7

&n order to fore?ast t>e passenger traffi? assumptions were made on t>e =alue of t>e

ey parameters- #>e effe?t of =arying t>ese =alues was analysed t>roug> sensiti=ity

analysis- #>e ey ?on?lusions wereH

#>e patronage elasti?ity wit> respe?t to rail and air fares is about 1-0-

#>is means t>at a 10N in?rease in fare would redu?e patronage about 10N )lea=ing

re=enue about t>e same,- A 10N redu?tion in air fares would lead to about 10N

redu?tion in rail patronage and re=enue-

#>e elasti?ity wit> respe?t to fuel pri?es on t>e ot>er >and is low- #>us

e=en if fuel pri?es were to rise in t>e future t>is would >a=e little effe?t on rail

patronage-

#>e sensiti=ity analysis s>owed t>at a??ess and egress time to rail

stations >as a maIor impa?t on rail traffi?- #>is s>ows t>e importan?e of pro=iding

a??ess into t>e larger urban transportation networs of ?ities-

4.4 OPERATION

#>e proposed ?onfiguration for passenger trains is a permanently ?oupled trainset wit>

dri=ing ?ab at ea?> end- &t is liely to >a=e a diesel power ?ar at ea?> end wit>

unpowered ?arriages in between but ?ould >a=e tra?tion motors distributed along t>e

train lengt>- #>ere are a number of su?> units offered by manufa?turers wit> similar

?>ara?teristi?s- #>ey offer about eig>t ?oa?>es and are about 200 m long-

!anufa?turers may offer =arious designs and ?apa?ities but all are ?onstrained by t>e

lengt> and widt> of t>e euipment- Single de? trainsets ?an offer between 250 and 50

seats depending on t>e first$se?ond ?lass ratio and t>e seat pit?>- &t must be stressed

t>at t>e abo=e data do not pre?lude any ?>oi?e by t>e ?lient of rolling sto? from any

manufa?turer and from any origin- %o trainsets manufa?tured today perfe?tly fit t>e



39/70


?onstraints sin?e most >ig> speed trains )abo=e 200 m$>, are ele?tri?ally powered but

impro=ements to meet t>e ?onstraints are te?>ni?ally feasible-

#en stations are foreseen in t>e base ?ase ).&, atH

*uwait ?ity )*m 001,O

;ubail )lo?ated on t>e SR/ networ *m ,O

&nter?>ange )*m 46,O

Salwa )*m 616, mostly for maintenan?e purposesO

Do>a )*m 757,O

Abu D>abi )*m 1117,O

Duba )*m 1186,O

FuIaira> )*m 12,O

So>ar )*m 1420,O

!us?at )*m 15:6,-

nder t>e .R .< and .R.< options !anama )m 511 under t>e .R option, is

?onne?ted to t>e GCC line =ia a bran?> from t>e SR/ networ and or =ia t>e proposed

.a>rain@ould be noted t>at Do>a is not lo?ated on t>e main line

but is ?onne?ted =ia a 10 ilometre bran?> from Salwa ;un?tion-

Running times were ?al?ulated based on t>e 1$25000 alignment pro=ided in ;uly 2008-

#>ese are preliminary running times t>at will >a=e to be updated in future studies on?e

t>e rolling sto? sele?tion pro?ess is more ad=an?ed and t>e rolling sto? ?>ara?teristi?s

nown in more detail- Running times ?ould =ary a??ordingly and t>e operating plan will

>a=e to be adeuately adIusted )traffi? fore?ast trains s?>edule tra? o??upan?y et?-,-

Alt>oug> wee@ends periods are not on t>e same days in e=ery ?ountry some weely

pea days are ne=ert>eless epe?ted and additional traffi? >as been in?orporated in t>e

figures- 3owe=er it was not possible to ?olle?t reliable data on t>e >ourly distribution of

t>e traffi?-

For ea?> of t>e four route options t>ree passenger ser=i?es wit> spe?ifi? stopping

patterns >a=e been set up to meet t>e ?ommer?ial needs and te?>ni?al ?onstraints-

#>e main ser=i?es >a=e 6 or 6 trains in ea?> dire?tion- >en demand is low ser=i?e

?an be redu?ed a??ordingly and t>e etra@early and late pat>s are remo=ed to maintain

t>e ?lo?@fa?ed ser=i?e- For ea?> train t>e number of trainsets is modified to ?ope wit>

demand and t>e ?orresponding total number of trainsets reuired >as been assessed-

#>e main results ?orresponding to t>e four passenger route options de=eloped wit>in

t>e 220 m$> s?enario are summariBed in table 4-7-



40/70


T@: 4.20 & O::6 /-: ;:>=: /> ::

T> ::

T;:

;: ::

'?(

A:=: ::< @7 (

*uwait@Duba 1186 64N @ 6:N 07>1 5

Do>a@!us?at 1125 61N @ 65N 07>12 6

!anama@Do>a )=ia &nter?>ange, :6 44N @ 56N 02>0

B+ 'B->&+/ :67(

*uwait@Duba 1186 68N @ 7:N 07>1 5

!anama@Do>a@!us?at 1125 68N @ 70N 06>56 5

&nter?>ange@Do>a@!anama 5: 26N @ N 0>12 1

BR , B+

*uwait@Do>a )=ia !anama, 72: 60N @ 62N 4>5 6

&nter?>ange@Duba )=ia!anama, :8 61N @ 71N 5>51 5

&nter?>ange@!us?at )=ia Salwa, 1160 66N @ 77N 6>58 6

#>is led to assessing t>e number of diagrammed trainsets and t>e total fleet as well as

t>e daily a=erage of ilometres per diagrammed unit as s>own in #able 4-8-

T@: 4.21 & N?@: /

O;/> 201! 2021 202#

.& )diagrammed$global,

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