Volta Storylines and Scenarios: A mouthpiece for interventions

that enhance livelihoods

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F. Kizito, J. Barron, L. Davelaar, S. Douxchamps, O. Cofie, K. Minong , VBDC PLs

VBDC Science WorkshopJuly 2012

Study background

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background methods project status next steps

Methodology: oStudy is being conducted at multiple scales across the Volta BasinoRelevant system drivers have been identifiedoRisk, vulnerability and adaptive framework developed

Project Objective: To isolate storylines based on past and present research coupled with farmers narratives, to identify common threads and interventions that could provide various contexts for exploring AWMi for improved livelihoods of various communities

Project Outcome: oCompelling consistent threads of storylines and scenariosoStorylines and scenarios yield innovative ideas which can be transformed into realistic and viable interventions that enhance livelihoods across multiple scales

Study backgroundStudy background

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background

Study Sites

Bougouriba (V4)

Study area covers 6 watersheds within the Volta Basin with some watersheds sharing the border between with Ghana and Burkina Faso. The chosen watersheds currently have on-going work within the VBDC.(Note: Boura and Binaba are not to scale)

Boura (V3)

Binaba (V3)

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background

Justification Drivers on the Basin are predicted to increase the frequency and severity of

extreme events such as droughts and flooding which in turn have various social and environmental consequences

Interventions that focus on integrated water resources management serve as viable and promising adaptation mechanisms that reduce future risk and vulnerability

This calls for an assessment framework to characterize the risks associated with the Volta Basin in order to evaluate viable options or interventions for reducing vulnerability.

Evaluate on-going projects

with associated uncertainties

Evaluate on-going projects

with associated uncertainties

Evaluate viable interventions for reducing

vulnerabilities

Evaluate viable interventions for reducing

vulnerabilities

Characterize key risks and

vulnerabilities

Characterize key risks and

vulnerabilities

Robust adaptive

management

Robust adaptive

management

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background

Conceptual FrameworkPreliminaryStorylines

Scenarios

External Internal

Markets

Policies

Institutions

Information

Technology

Resources

Basin Drivers Determinants

Global Drivers

Regional Drivers

Political, Economic, Environmental, Demographic, Technological

Community Drivers

HouseholdLevel Drivers

V2

V3

V4

V2

V3

V4

V5

V1 Worst case

Bearable

Present case(Status Quo)

Best case

Risks, Vulnerability& Adaptation levels

Very high

High

Low

Moderate

Viable interventions and modified storylines

V2

V3V4

V5

V1

VBDC Research Outcome

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The process is not linear; highly depends on the drivers which yield preliminary storylines. These are assessed against a set of scenarios and evaluated for risk and vulnerability to yield viable storylines and pertinent interventions

background

Methodology

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Wat

ersh

eds

Spatial Data

Non Spatial Data

Land Use/ Land CoverHydrology

Climatic dataSoils

Drought risk indexErosion risk index

Flood exposure index

Gender DimensionsDisease prevalenceEducation/ literacy

Human Dev’t indicators

Protected AreasTransportation/Roads

PopulationMarket AccessPoverty index

Biophysical Socio-econom

ic

Hydrologically corrected DEM

Arc SWAT Model

AspectDrainage

Watersheds

Database at Watershed Level

Weightage and Ranking of each indicator, sub-indicator and proxy indicator

Combined Sensitivity indexCombined Adaptive Capability IndexCombined Risk/Exposure Index

Vulnerability Assessment and MappingBased on weightage accorded to Sensitivity, Exposure and Adaptive Capability

Slope

Storylines and scenarios with potential viable interventions

XLRM Framework & Tradeoff analysis

-Far

mer

s’ n

arra

tives

-On-

goin

g re

sear

ch-S

econ

dary

dat

a-V

olta

Bas

in S

tart

er K

it-C

PWF

Phas

e I r

esul

ts

methods

The XLRM Framework

Framework structures analysis around key uncertainties, adaptation options, performance metrics, and analytical relationships

X: eXogenous factors (uncertain)/ Scenarios L: Levers These are factors that are outside our control and form a basis for “Scenarios”

These serve as management strategies or response packages/options for example they show:

- Current conditions - Adaptation Options

R: Relationships M: Performance Metrics These are relationships or models that estimate outcomes or performance metrics (M) for strategies or interventions (L) under specific scenarios (X)

These are natural resources related outcomes of interest e.g. evaluation criteria, supply reliability, market access or environmental integrity

The XLRM framework will aid in vulnerability assessment8

methods

Tradeoff quadrant

Lose-LoseWin-Lose

Win-LoseWin-Win

VBD

C Im

pact

Uncertainty

High

Low

HighLow

Conducted during vulnerability assessment

methods

Vulnerability Assessment Indicators

Sensitivity Analysis: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli

Exposure/Risk Analysis: the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations

Adaptive Capacity Analysis: the ability of a system to adjust to climate change

Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, exposure, adaptive capacity)

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methods

Watershed Sensitivity Assessment Indicators

Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators

Biophysical

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC)

Protected area coverageSoils Topography (slope, aspect)

Drainage densityDominant climate

Human Population

.

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methods

Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators

Temperature and rainfall

Mean seasonal temperature trend

Mean seasonal rainfall trend

Flood

Death

InjuredProperty lossOccurrencePositive annual rainfall trend

Drought/flood risk index

Daily precipitation Population pressure on forest landFood surplus and deficiency

Human ecologyReproductive rate Human poverty indexLife expectancy Accessibility

Physical ecology Land cover densitySurface soil erosionLandscape degradation

Watershed Risk/Exposure Assessment Indicators

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methods

Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators

Socioeconomic

Human development index Human poverty indexGender development indexHuman empowerment index

Infrastructure*Road length Cell phoneElectricity presence

Technology

Irrigated land area Existence of soil and water conservation interventions e.g. terraced areas

Watershed Adaptive Capability Assessment Indicators

*Some of the socio-economic indicators take into account infrastructure presence

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methods

Example of XLRM Framework ApplicabilityEmerging Storylines

ScenariosBasin Drivers Determinants Risks, Vulnerability& Adaptation levels

Viable interventions & Modified storylines

Low soil fertility in landscapes Impacting V2, V3 and V4communities

X L

MoFA has fertilizer Subsidy and ImprovedSeed variety arrangements

Degraded soil and water resourcesLow crop yieldsInsufficient livestock feed LR, M

Communities notTaking part inInitiatives orSimplyopt for traditional Low technology methods

Less risk and vulnerability with higher adaptive capacity and resilience

Increased risk and vulnerability with low adaptive capacity

-Promising outcomes: improve soil fertility, higher crop yields and sufficient livestock feed-Strategies that enhance livelihoods copied or embraced neighboring communities

Communities embark onSoil-water conservationTechnologies, receive subsidies and improved seed and embark on interventions

L, R, M

M M

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methods

Project Update and Status

The VSS will continue enhancing VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs within the scope of the project

Last month, a field trip was conducted to capture farmers narratives in the Northern region in the V2 sites

The next sites to be visited include: V3 and V4 sites in Burkina Faso in July

Current work products: Functional Project Blog for information sharing Past and present literature sources on Volta Basin Research (posted on blog) Field photos, farmers videos with narratives/stories Continued research framing to current needs

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project status

Emerging community dynamics

Identified common drivers and determinants among the four communities

o Demographic impacto Role of technologyo Impact of climate and crop varietieso Indigenous knowledge: e.g. use of inorganic Vs organic manures

Identified differences in communities in terms of resources, market access, cultural norms, coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies

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project status

Conclusion

Narratives from upcoming visit will complement on-going assessment

Study will endeavor to incorporate essential elements of the XLRM framework in order to ensure a holistic approach

Vulnerability assessment maps are being developed to complement emerging storylines and scenarios for each watershed dependent on data availability

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project status

Identified gaps

Emphasis should be placed on linkages between vulnerability and resilience assessment an aspect critical for achieving the VBDC

An integrated perspective that combines a top down and bottom up approach should be sought to incorporate farmers narratives with other policy and biophysical inputs

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next steps

Next steps

Complete field visits for V3 and V4 sites

Continue conducting vulnerability assessment as a proxy for resilience evaluation in the basin

Relate resilience to emerging storylines an aspect that would help VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs

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next steps

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Conceptual FrameworkGlobal drivers

Determinants

STORYLINES SCENARIOS

Priorities / viable interventions

Robust adaptive management / VBDC outcomes

• Farmers narrative• Past research• Literature• VBDC research

• XLRM• Trade-off analysis• vulnerability maps

Vulnerability/ Resilience

assessment

evaluation

background